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Archive for the ‘psephology’


The Great Hollowing 140

Posted on January 20, 2025 by

The wild thing about this poll isn’t the headline that six months after winning a massive landslide majority, Keir Starmer now trails Nigel Farage – leader of a party with five MPs to Starmer’s 411 – as the electorate’s choice for best Prime Minister.

It’s the little grey numbers sitting quietly at the bottom.

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Beware of liars 337

Posted on June 15, 2022 by

Even when you’re retired, some things are too journalistically offensive to let pass, such as this piece of absolute garbage we just saw from The National today.

The paper’s anonymous reporter set off all our red warning lights at once.

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Progress update 1,173

Posted on April 13, 2022 by

In slightly over a month from now, Nicola Sturgeon will overtake Alex Salmond as the longest-serving First Minister of Scotland. It seemed a reasonable time to take stock.

It’s very nearly six years since the Sunday Herald headline above from 1 May 2016. (Remember the Sunday Herald, readers? It feels like another lifetime, doesn’t it?)

April/early May is very often the period leading up to an election, which is when the SNP traditionally ramp up the carrot-dangling about independence to secure the votes of the faithful for yet another “cast-iron mandate”, so it’s not a bad barometer. Let’s see how far we’ve come.

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The Hardest Vote 309

Posted on May 06, 2021 by

We’d actually planned to leave Chris Cairns’ fabulous cartoon at the top of the front page all day today, but this post is important so we’re putting it in here again (no, Chris, you don’t get paid twice) so we can say this.

Because no matter how much you hate the Unionist parties or certain of their individual MSPs, if you want Alba MSPs elected today there are several seats where you really, really can’t afford to vote SNP on the constituency ballot.

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Panic attacks 569

Posted on March 27, 2021 by

Any time you’re not sure whether something that happens in Scottish politics is good or bad for the cause of independence, here’s a top tip for you: see how the enemies of independence feel about it.

“Running scared” would seem to be a fair, if understated, summary.

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For old times’ sake 328

Posted on March 17, 2021 by

We enjoyed doing this site a lot more when it was the dishonesty of Unionists and the Unionist media, not the SNP, that represented the main threat to independence. So let’s make like it’s the old days, just this once.

Because today has seen the Scottish press falling over itself once again to trumpet the latest joke poll from notorious idiots Scotland In Union as if it was at all meaningful:

And of course it’s purest garbage.

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Venus and Mars 220

Posted on January 18, 2021 by

In 2014, it was women who stopped Scotland becoming independent.

But it was still a man’s fault, of course. Those of us who were around at the time, while many of the SNP’s earnest young activists of today were still squeezing their spots, will recall a multitude of media articles on how it was apparently the fairer sex’s personal antipathy to Alex Salmond that was responsible for the No camp’s victory.

And who knows, maybe that was true and maybe it wasn’t. We have no idea. But what we do know is that you can’t have it both ways.

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How to waste your vote 255

Posted on August 13, 2020 by

We’ve been having a closer look at the latest polling for next year’s Holyrood election (YouGov, from this week), and in particular the list numbers. We thought you might be interested in a little stat from them.

That’s the full breakdown. But that’s not the graphic that really tells the story.

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An all-time low 142

Posted on November 08, 2019 by

Try to ignore the “regional”, and the fact that it’s framed as the Tories vs Labour. This is a new full-sample (1060) poll from YouGov today, and wow.

(The left-hand bar in each pair is 2017, the right-hand one is 2019.)

And you thought Kezia Dugdale’s nadir of 14% would never be beaten.

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Flying with Wings 619

Posted on September 18, 2019 by

As the mandate for a second independence referendum currently sits gathering dust in the SNP vaults, discussion has started on ways to generate some movement. One of these has been the possibility of a Wings political party being set up to campaign for Holyrood list seats, which has generated rather a lot of attention.

Various pundits have been loudly vocal about the perceived pros and cons, but I’ve been extremely dissatisfied – in particular with those dismissing the value of a Wings party – with the quality of evidence and analysis that they’ve produced to justify their negative opinion. So I thought I’d use my day-job skills in commercial data science to analyse and understand the benefits, or otherwise, of the idea.

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Narrow windows 433

Posted on September 08, 2019 by

Supporters of the opposition’s plan to block a no-deal Brexit have been proclaiming vindication this weekend over a couple of polls which show significantly lower support for the Tories, and a lead for Labour, in the event that a general election is called after 31 October with Brexit not having happened.

In that scenario, Tory voters tell pollsters that they’re more likely to defect to the Brexit Party, and the resulting split in the Brexit vote appears to point towards a Labour-led government if you plug the figures into a site like Electoral Calculus.

The reality is much more complicated than that. But what we’re specifically interested in is how it would affect the chances of securing a second indyref, so let’s take a look.

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The British sense of fair play 159

Posted on September 07, 2019 by

We’ve talked about this subject before, but a couple of findings in a new poll today by Survation really caught our eye.

And that tells us something quite profound about the UK’s voters.

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    • Sandy Howden on Meet The FILTH: “Well Twathater what you do not know is what I know what is happening in Midlothian which really should concern…Mar 16, 20:36
    • yoon scum on Meet The FILTH: “Why should they be protesting? They aren’t ruled by the English therefore everything must be perfect UNLESS The English is…Mar 16, 20:26
    • George Ferguson on Meet The FILTH: “@Sven Agreed Salmond ran a competent Government. It seems a long time ago now.Mar 16, 18:59
    • Hatey McHateface on Meet The FILTH: “Ah’m sorry, twathater. Ah must have forgot the hundreds of thousands of Scots on the streets protesting about the delay…Mar 16, 18:25
    • Peter McAvoy on The plainest sight: “Why were the disclosure certificates or its English equivalents and PVGs ignored. This is a failure of the state to…Mar 16, 18:19
    • twathater on The plainest sight: “I think you’ll find that OUR deviants and perverts in Holyrood have watched the long long long list of deviants…Mar 16, 18:17
    • twathater on Meet The FILTH: “Hey big mooth , when was the LAST time YOU took to the streets, you’re starting to sound like yer…Mar 16, 17:40
    • Marie on The plainest sight: “You’ve answered your own question.Mar 16, 17:38
    • sarah on Meet The FILTH: ““The less talent they have, the more pride, vanity and arrogance they have. All these fools, however, find other fools…Mar 16, 17:33
    • twathater on Meet The FILTH: “Sandy I do hope you are not coming on to WOS to continue fluffing for the LYING bastard party Liebour,…Mar 16, 17:30
    • sarah on Meet The FILTH: “@ Sandy Howden – it astonishes me that Colin Beattie is standing again given his performance as Party Treasurer and…Mar 16, 17:26
    • sarah on Meet The FILTH: “@ Robert Hughes – thanks for the words of appreciation! About all I can do is try to boost numbers…Mar 16, 17:10
    • diabloandco on The plainest sight: “It’s all very well you exposing these foul folk but sadly the MSM doesn’t seem to bother its arse exposing…Mar 16, 16:53
    • John C on The plainest sight: “Ireland should go down for a long, long time yet much of the media that praised him are ignoring his…Mar 16, 16:51
    • sarah on Meet The FILTH: “@ Breeks: I read AS comment entirely differently! I feel the momentum is with the grassroots activists and they should…Mar 16, 16:46
    • dearieme on The plainest sight: “Coo! I had expected that any sneering at the bad folk of Surrey would involve banter directed at supporters of…Mar 16, 15:46
    • Mia on The plainest sight: ““Follow the money/ pink dollar..” Absolutely. I am more worried about something else, though. That money might not be the…Mar 16, 15:43
    • Mia on The plainest sight: ““Follow the money/ pink dollar..” Absolutely. I am more worried about something else, though. That money might not be the…Mar 16, 15:41
    • Mia on The plainest sight: “Disgusting paedophiles cosying up to the police and being promoted and funded by governments with our money, for goodness sake.…Mar 16, 15:30
    • Young Lochinvar on The plainest sight: “A couple of questions; How much public money do these various groups/ organisations get from government? How much in donations…Mar 16, 15:17
    • twathater on Meet The FILTH: “Well said Robert, uncomfortable truths sometimes have to be aired, but as usual we will have the assortment of yoonionists…Mar 16, 15:05
    • Hatey McHateface on Meet The FILTH: “MSM reporting an estimated 325,000 Serbs protested against the behaviour of their government yesterday. “they are asking for … the…Mar 16, 14:43
    • Willie on The plainest sight: “All I can say is that any middle aged man who rapes a 12 year old boy is an absolute…Mar 16, 14:09
    • Lorn on The plainest sight: “The PDF Information Exchange (acronym: pastry filled with meat or fruit) latched on to the LGB movement several decades ago…Mar 16, 13:49
    • Hatey McHateface on The plainest sight: “Channelling my inner Braveheart here: FFFFRRRRRREEEEEEEEEDDDDDOOOOOOOMMMMMMM!!!!!!!!! From the Scots who shame, abuse and oppress us all.Mar 16, 13:29
    • sarah on Meet The FILTH: “Good man, twathater. It is difficult sometimes as I know well but we must try to overlook personality differences and…Mar 16, 12:53
    • Anne on The plainest sight: “It’s good that you overturn these stones Wings,so many turn a blind eye . I feel sickMar 16, 12:41
    • sarah on The plainest sight: “What more can we do to make the government, councils, police, schools etc etc understand this subject and then act?…Mar 16, 12:40
    • sarah on Meet The FILTH: “@ Socrates MacSporran: Totally agree – Holyrood currently is only a pretendy wee parliament. And why didn’t the 56 MPs…Mar 16, 12:29
    • Hatey McHateface on Meet The FILTH: “MSM reporting The Donald has been “consulting closely with the UN and taking direction from that international body” overnight. Haha,…Mar 16, 11:48
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