Fantasy World Dizzy
Because you certainly are a bit light-headed if you’re buying this horse-plop.
We don’t normally spend much time analysing opinion polls more than a year out from an election because it’s a complete chump’s game – too much can happen. But this one’s so absolutely batshit mad that we couldn’t resist a bit of a probe.
These are the base numbers.
Analysis by psephologist Prof. Sir John Curtice translates them into a seat projection of 57 SNP, 15 Green, 15 Labour, 14 Tory, 13 Lib Dem, 8 Reform and 7 Alba.
And the first question that leapt into our heads was: why so few SNP?
There are 73 constituency seats at Holyrood, and in 2021 they came out like this:
So ask yourself this: on those polling figures, which five would the SNP lose?
Compared to 2021, the poll shows the following constituency-vote changes:
SNP: down 27%
Tories: down 45%
Labour: down 27%
Lib Dem: up 42%
And firstly we have to check the 11 seats that the SNP didn’t win in 2021.
With their respective national votes on such wildly diverging trajectories, it seems massively unlikely – even allowing for local variance – that the SNP are going to take any of the four Lib Dem seats, so let’s rule out any changes there. And with the SNP and Labour losing an equal proportion of their 2021 votes it’s a fair bet that Dumbarton and – barring a real miracle – Edinburgh Southern will stay Labour.
But what about those Tory seats? If you reduce the 2021 Tory vote by 45% and the SNP vote by 21%, the Eastwood, Dumfriesshire, Galloway and West Dumfries and Aberdeenshire West all switch to the SNP by fairly comfortable margins.
And by the same logic, there’s no credible way for any of the three main Unionist parties to take any seats currently held by the SNP. As far as we’re aware there are no seats where the Lib Dems are the main challengers, nor anywhere there’s any sign of a local Labour or Tory surge.
That means the SNP go UP from 62 constituencies four years ago to 66 – an absolute majority – before you even start counting the list votes and contemplating the Greens or Alba, who we’re told will pick up 22 between them. (That’d be a total of 88, not the 79 suggested in the National article.)
They’d have done so on just 30% of the total vote (35% constituency, 25% list) – securing only three seats fewer than Alex Salmond did in 2011 with 45% of the vote. The supposedly proportional Holyrood electoral system won’t just have been “broken” as it was in 2011, it’ll have been smashed to rubble. The SNP will have a majority with even less democratic legitimacy than Keir Starmer’s FPTP one at Westminster.
And when faced with such an obviously ludicrous outcome, yet one which is all but inescapable from the numbers, a sane person draws only one rational conclusion: the numbers are bollocks.
Even on a superficial obvious level, that’s definitely the case – there’s no way on Earth that the Greens are going to get 9% of the constituency vote, or Alba 3%, simply because they won’t stand anywhere near enough candidates – in 2021 the Greens got just 1.3% of the constituency vote, split between 12 candidates. That doesn’t affect the seat numbers in these calculations, but it’s still a bit of a red flag. We’ll also be pretty surprised if Reform put up 73, so that’s 20% or more of the constituency vote in these figures nominally going to parties who won’t actually have a constituency candidate to vote for, and which therefore will probably be looking for a new home on election day.
Current polling – with the emphasis firmly on the “current” – does suggest a rather disproportionate outcome of next year’s election. Reform’s splintering of the Unionist vote into four almost-equal fractions could wreak a significant degree of havoc, albeit dependent on how many constituencies they contest.
But we’ll put our money where our mouth is, as we always do – anyone who thinks there’ll be 79 or more pro-indy MSPs at Holyrood next June (we still don’t even expect a pro-indy majority) is welcome to offer us any size of wager they like, and we’ll accept it. Post it in the comments and let’s see who takes us on.
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[EDIT 8.17pm] For clarity, for the purposes of the wager (though no other purpose), SNP and Green MSPs do count as “pro-indy”.
Have you seen the shenanigans of elections in Europe lately? All making sure the pre-approved puppets remain in place?
It’ll be rigged.
& Then there’s the mitigation. Yoons know what side their bread is buttered because a Yoon party will abolish that immediately & they know it.
“& Then there’s the mitigation”
Doo wot, Geri? What’s the mitigation?
Correction:
If the projection is right, there’ll be 7 pro indy MSPs next june.
Exactly.
The SNP can remain in power because they’re absolutely no threat to anyone except the Scottish electorate. It serves London to keep them there as a permanent road block & to keep their boot on Holyroods neck. They’ve also absolutely no regard for democracy so it wouldn’t surprise me in the least that they’d rig it.
Once the truly unique people of Scotland have been stopped being oppressed by the worlds most useless and lazy people
How long before the Scots invade and destroy england
This appears to be using the same polling data as the poll the other day which produced a 11 point lead for independence over the union (possibly the highest figure ever). So it’s likely they’ve oversampled SNP voters, or that their methodology which excludes those who indicate a less than 70% probability of voting – has had the same effect. SNP on 35% constituency with Labour on 15% seems unrealistically high/low respectively, when compared to other polls and previous results. I would guess there around 20% of the Scottish people who would vote Labour every time regardless of anything.
The fact that The National commissioned these polls shows they were done on the cheap. But they will have the desired effect, getting some howling going on The National’s Facebook page, stroking the tummy of the SNP, telling us nothing about voting intention next year.
“The fact that The National commissioned these polls shows they were done on the cheap.”
I’ve actually just found out what Find Out Now charge for polling, and my jaw bounced off the floor at how little it was compared to all the ones Wings has commissioned.
Yes, not to defame this polling company but I would question the legitimacy of the respondents (bots/scammers responding to paid online polls is a major issue) and the quality and depth of the analysis translating the results into seats given the prices.
If the SNP take Eastwood from Jackson Carlaw I’ll eat my hat, with a side order of my boots.
It’s going to be an exciting race to see which gets us Indy first.
The stonking HR pro-Indy majority due to arrive May next year.
Or the UN deus ex machina, where they grant us Indy as a result of feeling sorry for us because we’re colonised (I’m assuming nobody will tell them of all the countries we ourselves colonised – that might harden their hearts agin us).
On the latter, all my attempts to get the date for the UN granting us freedom have gone unanswered. I guess it must be a secret.
So a stonking HR pro-Indy majority in just over a year’s time it is.
Alba need to go on the attack and secure some of the independence votes the Greens glom. Ash Regan has the tone right.
Currently, the party has the respectful volume of protestors against a library closure.
As a conservative left wing party it would find its niche.
The overall numbers in Holyrood are dependent on regional ballots, because winner parties on the constituency ballot are very much less likely to gain regional seats. I take any poll with a large pinch of salt, if the analysts emphasise constituency figures, and I think Curtice does just that.
I hate the d’Hondt system because it results in party-appointed placemen (and women) – some astounding dullards among the current collection. I’d rather we had a single transferable vote so we get representatives the voters want, rather than fodder chosen by parties.
Until i hear Swinney calling a convention of indy supporters or SNP 1 and Alba 2 there will be no vote from me regardless.
I need something to make me think he has not compromised himself with his redactor pen
Cr0ck of sh1t.
What about Indy supporters like myself looking for someone (actually) on the ballot paper to vote for that’s actually intent on independence?
Until that then it’s just guessed percentages of spiralling fewer percentages willing to go along with the prearranged “show” and vote.
The likes of Geri, Viv et al are bang on right, it’s down to voting for donkeys now until something changes but not sure I’d hold my breath about it..
Best to practice drawing c0ck n balls..
Sad days.
nationalist problem solving
Step 1 – Identify problem
Step 2 – Leave the union
Step 3 – Magic happens
I don’t have an issue with step 2
It’s step 3 that bothers me
But if you take a look at this from you point of view where you have no problems with step 3
Then you will ALWAYS vote for someone who promises step 2
Which means whoever gets into power can get into office and sit on their ass for 5 years* and do nothing other then to wave a saltire occasionally
So Scotland will NEVER improve and this rot will never convince folk like myself that Holyrood is competent
*sadly they don’t just sit on their ass and wave a flag
They fiddle and make Scotland significantly worse
in 2021 just 63% of Scots could be arsed to vote
lets pretend that that remains the same in 2026
and 51% of Scots realise that people like me are filth and everyone in england has two heads and eat babies
and they vote for Alba
That is 32% of Scots
We know that the English are ALL utterly hopeless and stupid and lazy and feckless and unemployed and not one of them has a job or has ever made anything
So Westminster will refuse to recognise this CLEAR MANDATE as they can’t as the 5 million Scots each produce a well a million in taxes each
So to lose scotland would make england poorer then Ethiopia
Then what?
Well, I think/hope SNP lose Angus and Mearns because of the monster pylons due to go up along beautiful Strathmore – there are lots of angry people out there.
Surely a bit pointless unless the new people pledge to dismantle and remove all the pylons?
Aye. Right.
Maybe what you’re really saying is that all of these “angry people out there” just like treating politics as a bit of pantomime fun.
I bet they do too, like the majority of Scots voters, and that’s exactly why we are where we are.
Yah, boo, hiss to the villains. Yay to the heroes. And not a bit of joined up thinking to be seen anywhere.
After looking at NATs I have complied a list of power sources that they want to be banned after indy
Oil – No chance too dirty
Coal – Even dirtier then oil
Gas – NOPE not allowed to burn stuff
Waste to energy – Nope far to dirty
Onshore wind – Nope they look ugly
Offshore wind – Nope they need power lines onshore
Nuclear – Of course not are you insane
Solar – Nope it takes up land
Battery farms – Nope they go on fire
Which leaves
Wave and tidal
Until they invent a reason to ban them
Which leaves us with the very best form of power
MAGIC
Lets have a look at reform policies and see which ones people object to
here is their policies document
link to assets.nationbuilder.com
I’d love to know what you hate the most
well apart from the postcode as I’m pretty certain that is what makes you VERY angry
I think the difference in seats projections may be that the Rev is using proportionate changes whereas Curtis is using absolute changes in votes projected for ’26 compared to those actually posted in ’21.
The “absolute” approach means for example that the Conservatives would be assumed to change their nationwide vote by the DIFFERENCE of 12.0% (projected in ’26) – 21.9% (actual in ’21) = -9.9% in EVERY constituency (i.e. a uniform change).
The “proportionate” approach means for example that the Conservatives would be assumed to change their nationwide vote a FACTOR of 12.0% (projected in ’26) / 21.9% (actual in ’21) = 0.55 in EVERY constituency (i.e. a uniform change).
I find the two approaches produce starkly different constituency projected results:
Absolute:
Con: 7
Grn: 1
Lab: 3
Lib: 5
SNP: 57
Proportionate:
Con: 1
Grn: 1
Lab: 2
Lib: 5
SNP: 64
This Scottish Parliament Swingometer seems to use the “absolute” approach like Curtis (link to electionpolling.co.uk) although the overall 2021 party vote share results that the whole things is based on look to be slightly out compared.
The Supreme Court is to announce what a woman is at 9:45 AM today.
I intend to have my mammie sat down in her favourite comfy chair, fresh cup of tea to hand, just in case of surprises.
I urge all Scots who are concerned about their own mammies, grans, etc to do likewise.
Penis-free women might be best to avoid women’s public loos at 9:45 AM, just in case there’s a rush of excited, curious, new clients, of the penis-toting variety.
This is Scotland after all – we can’t be too careful! Hope for the best, but plan for the worst, for as long as the loonies hold sway in HR.
When do we get a ruling on if water is wet?
That said
100% of YOONs say water is in fact wet
Then I guess the true Scots will be forced to take the exact opposite position
as you can’t agree with a YOON
No – when it comes to water, we don’t agree with scum
The sad fact is
you aren’t actually joking
A lot of you are so minced in the head you’d disagree with anything that a YOON says
In which case
I think it is a really bad idea to go and play in traffic
Can somebody/anybody please explain to me why any sane, educated person would even consider voting for the SNP.
I admit I did vote for them ONCE. But, in my defence, it was 40 years ago when I did not know any better.
The sad thing for me is that 90% of the posters on Wings have voted for them multiple times and some will continue to do so again. This says a lot about Scotland and it’s people.None of it good.
We are in a hole and it is getting deeper by the day. As it stands,Independence would only make matters worse.
On a more positive note, I have played golf for more than 50 years and on Saturday I achieved my first ever albatross when I holed my second shot at a par 5. A feat far more exclusive than a hole in one, of which I have had 9. Well played Chas, I am sure you are thinking!!
No, we’re not thinking that.
You pay to punt a ball up a park & then walk after it only to punt it further. Rinse & repeat.
& You think SNP voters are daft? Take a bow…
Yes, we are in a hole, Chas, and, yes, the first few years of independence will be no picnic. However, we cannot stay in the Union any longer because there is no remedy for our ills other than to try and mitigate them ourselves. It really is as simple as that. The UK is England. No other part – and no other parts put together – can challenge England’s voting strength in Parliament. Everything will be done to save England at the expense of the other three parts. That is just fact. We will sink and sink until all hope goes. So, either we fight for our independence and try to drag ourselves up by the bootstraps to something resembling a thriving, independent state or we sit back and allow ourselves to be trampled. No other choices. Devolution is dead as a doornail. Do we swallow the bitter medicine and at least do something towards a cure or do we just lie back and think of England – which does what it has to do to save itself. It’s nothing personal; it’s just how it is.
I am always intrigued as to who the ‘WE’ is comments like yours!
This obviously includes you personally, maybe your pals, the SNP or some of our other useless politicians?
What is always missing is the HOW!
So a woman is a biological woman.
Well done the Supreme Court. The nonsense is being rolled back. Great result but utterly appalling that it took an English court to knock sense into our woke Scottish Government.
Just the start of a very long road back to normality, Willie. They had a choice: alienate women for good and start a real war of the sexes; or reapply common sense and put the first halt on this madness. Had they decided that ‘trans’ identified males were also ‘women’ in the Equality Act 2010 definition of ‘sex’, all hell would have been let loose. I truly believe that metaphorical blood – and, maybe, real blood, eventually – would have been shed. Lord Hodge is a Scottish SC judge, too, so fitting that he should have read out the unanimous ruling. Remember, that the exceptions to ‘trans’ identified women with GRCs were made very clear right from day one: no female peerages, no female priests in the Catholic Church, etc. Oh, they knew exactly which sex was which then. Only female rights were ever under attack – or were ever intended to be under attack.
You’d assume the eejits tasked with legal oversight that occupy the branch office would’ve put a stop to this nonsense.
I wonder why they didn’t? Hmmmm…
Someone has made a tidy wee sum out of taking this nonsense to court.
Apologies for Off Topic Post.
Absolute delight reigning in the Sven Valhalla today as the Scottish Devolved Administration loses its’ case that the Equalities Act includes biological males as “women” if they identify as such.
Unfortunately the legal costs of the Administration will, as usual, be picked up by the Taxpayers.
Unanimous decision by the Supreme Court Judges. One trusts that this may also be reflected by the governing bodies of contact sports.
Sadly, the Skittish government will blithely ignore the verdict and “Carry on regardless” with Swinney as Charles Hawtree
Curtice is a died in the wool establishment man. He will manipulate the figures for his UK state masters. For me he’ll try to make out SNP and Indy support will be higher than it is to maybe make some voters not bother voting.
Was always my favourite game of the Dizzy series