In our latest Panelbase poll, we asked the same independence question we asked in the last one, and got much the same answer. (Technically the indy vote went up by about a sixth of one percent, but that’s statistically meaningless.)
That’s a bit disappointing after the events of recent weeks, but also not very surprising – after all, the way the question is framed pretty much guarantees at least 38% of the population will choose the second option straight off the bat.
Much more interesting is the question we asked next.
Political pundits on both sides on the border often marvel at how the SNP appear able to defy the normal rules of electoral gravity, still holding a comfortable double-digit lead in the polls after more than 11 years in power. But there’s no great mystery to it, and the answer is simple, in several senses of that word.
Ladies and gentlemen, allow us to present to you Scottish Labour’s offering for who’d be in charge of all the Scottish Government’s money if the SNP weren’t in power – finance spokesman James Kelly MSP.
As alert readers will know, we’ve heard little from the Unionist parties in Scotland over the last couple of years but “SCOTLAND SAID NO!”, “SCOTLAND DOESN’T WANT ANOTHER REFERENDUM!” and “WHAT PART OF NO DON’T YOU UNDERSTAND?”
That clutch of blunt, angry slogans was (and remains) pretty much the entire Scottish Conservatives manifesto, for example, and it rests on the claim – based on some extremely misleading selective reading of opinion polls – that the nation is implacably opposed to a second vote. The reality, as we know, is somewhat more balanced. But it’s never been quite THIS balanced before.
We’ve just got the results back from a new Panelbase poll of Scottish voters. As ever there’s some fascinating stuff in there, but we’ll start with the headline voting numbers:
HOLYROOD VOTING INTENTION (excl DK, chgs vs Dec 2017)
SNP 41 (+2)
Con 27 (-1)
Lab 22 (-3)
LD 6 (-)
Grn 2 (-)
This year’s Scottish Social Attitudes Survey has found, yet again, that Scottish people trust their government in Holyrood vastly more than they trust the one in Westminster. The figures transcend party loyalties, with far more people saying they trust the Scottish Government than vote for the SNP.
Trust in both governments was down by five points, which meant the Scottish Government had lost 7.6% of its trust (66 down to 61) while the UK government had lost 20% of its trust (25 down to 20).
Now let’s see how two newspapers owned by the same company reported the news.
The Sunday Times puts some poll results in an interesting frame today:
And readers who’ve learned anything at all from this site over the last six years will be looking at that tweet and immediately wondering “what AREN’T we being told there?”
And to be absolutely fair to the Scottish Lib Dem leader, he’s always been consistent in his beliefs, such as the view that elected members should be given a second chance when they’ve committed a minor misdemeanour, and NOT have to (for example) stand down and face re-election.
So as we’re busy today we’ll just refer you to some of the previous occasions we’ve covered it, because literally everything about it is exactly the same now as it was then.
Hatey McHateface on Or Something: “Ach, Alf, if “colonialism may speak in the native tongue” then I’m going to have to be wary of those…” Aug 3, 18:56
Hatey McHateface on Or Something: “Odd. The only enthusiasm I’ve ever seen for Scottish gas chambers is BTL here *. From people who loudly like…” Aug 3, 18:42
Hatey McHateface on The Nobodies: “Look everybody! Indy support up 5% today. Just another 5% and we’re free. Wonder what’s been driving it, eh?” Aug 3, 18:32
holymacmoses on Or Something: “It will be interesting to see if they decide to up the anti and pay for a more professional spin-doctor…” Aug 3, 18:22
Alf Baird on Or Something: ““According to Fanon, the whites” Wrong again, Hatey. Fanon warned colonized peoples in Africa, Asia and Latin America that “colonialism…” Aug 3, 18:21
James on The Nobodies: “Ah yes, the intellectual giant that is the Tory cave dweller showing off the limits of his rhetorical skills there.…” Aug 3, 18:09
twathater on Or Something: “TBQH I cannot understand why our legal representatives in Scotland are not up in arms at this blatant protection of…” Aug 3, 17:59
Captain Caveman on The Nobodies: ““Bum chum” …. What’s your mental age, Fatso? 5? 😀 “Blow it out your arse”™” Aug 3, 17:37
Andy Wiltshire on Or Something: “Ewing?” Aug 3, 17:27
James on The Nobodies: “Ah, here he is, The Big Chief of dullards, renowned pub bore, arriving to his bum chum’s rescue in his…” Aug 3, 17:06
Sian Laidlaw on Or Something: “I’m beginning to think Mr Campbell that maybe the reason for the COPFSs continuing deflection and obfuscation is because of…” Aug 3, 16:52
Jay on Or Something: “London Scot, what do you intend to provide by way of information?” Aug 3, 16:14
CatalogueTrewsers on Or Something: “I got a letter from Bwana today informing me I’d been “Selected ” to take part in the Scottish Crime…” Aug 3, 15:51
Richard Denning on Or Something: “There was a related article by Robin McAlpine recently https://robinmcalpine.org/fighting-back-against-the-ruling-classs-reign-of-terror/” Aug 3, 15:26
Young Lochinvar on Or Something: “I wonder how many people have, or are planning to visit their lawyer to amend their wills removing the SNP…” Aug 3, 15:24
Douglas on Or Something: “Judging by their responses thus far, I fear you are using too many big words for the intended recipient(s). If…” Aug 3, 15:20
Captain Caveman on The Nobodies: ““Aw, Confused; don’t be calling Main a cunt. Everyone knows it’s a “Prick”.” Ah yes, your latest pearl of wisdom,…” Aug 3, 15:10
Effijy on Or Something: “If they insist that there is no crime here and no need for investigation would this set a precedent in…” Aug 3, 15:04
Hatey McHateface on Or Something: “Vote Indy for revenge? Surely, with Indy support being 50/50 (approximately), that would lose as many votes as it gains.…” Aug 3, 14:53
James on The Nobodies: “Aw, Confused; don’t be calling Main a cunt. Everyone knows it’s a “Prick”.” Aug 3, 14:45
Ex President Xiden on Or Something: “There are in fact a third possibility, namely they could be BOTH .” Aug 3, 14:29
am firinn on Or Something: “I think the idea of independence is to get rid of people like these, and ensure, through greater democratic accountability…” Aug 3, 14:19
Hatey McHateface on Or Something: “Your post is telling me you have no idea of what constituted the reality of 1930’s Germany (presumably you were…” Aug 3, 13:55
sarah on Or Something: “Rev, I am sure you are aware of the need to keep yourself safe. Perhaps get some professional advice?” Aug 3, 13:53
Rookiescot on Or Something: “After what they did to Alex Salmond I expect we will see nothing but partisanship. That alone told me who…” Aug 3, 13:48
Colin Alexander on Or Something: “An FOI to the Electoral Commission on related Police / SNP matters was also refused with a: “can neither confirm…” Aug 3, 13:38
Willie on Or Something: “When you read responses like the one thst COPFS has just sent you realise that the COPFS has just issued…” Aug 3, 13:35
Rev. Stuart Campbell on Or Something: “No, there’s a third option: simply explain the reason someone was not prosecuted in the face of what appears to…” Aug 3, 13:10
Hatey McHateface on Or Something: “OK, so I lazily exaggerated. I’ll re-write. Over the months of July and August, when the schools are out, sufficient…” Aug 3, 12:42
