Wings Over Scotland

Labour Uncut, 11 February 2014:

“In the main race between Labour and the Tories, these figures mean the Tories have a higher core vote than Labour.

Applying the defection rate to the Tories 2010 total gives a core vote of 23%, 1.5% ahead of Labour. It could well be that the generational churn identified by the Fabians evens out this Tory advantage, but in terms of actual voters who participated at the last election, YouGov’s analysis shows us that the Tories have a clear core vote lead.”

It may be worth remembering that these figures also don’t, as far as we can ascertain, factor in those UKIP voters likely to return to the Conservatives when it comes to the crunch of a UK election that might install Ed Miliband as Prime Minister rather than a Tory leader promising to hold a referendum on EU membership.

Don’t come crying to us in May 2015, No voters. We keep telling you what’s coming.

Apologies to readers who’ve been having comments vanish or their details being forgotten this morning. This is as a result of a security measure implemented by our webhosts, because the site is under what they describe as a “targeted” DoS attack.

It’s been going on for some time now (since almost exactly the point when the Scottish Daily Mail began its “cybernats” smear campaign), and although our hosts keep shutting it down, it just starts up again from a new IP address. It’s aimed very specifically at Wings Over Scotland. Someone REALLY wants this site taken down.

We’re working on several things to try to deal with the problem more permanently, and will get everything back to normal as soon as possible, but your comments aren’t just disappearing – what’s happening is that they’re being posted, but the site is being very heavily cached to reduce the damage done by the DDoS attack, so you won’t be able to see them for a while, although other people will.

It’s all a bit of a pain, but try to see it as a compliment.

Good news in this morning’s papers for faithful Labour left-wingers everywhere.

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As we always say, we don’t set a lot of store by polls at this stage. We didn’t get all overexcited by the ones showing big jumps towards independence in the last couple of weeks, and nor are we downcast by the newest Panelbase showing a small drop.

But there WAS something interesting and potentially significant about it.

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We’ve been talking about our own stats a little too much for our liking recently – we’ll give it a bit of a rest again after this month, honest. But this one’s kinda special.

Those are Wings Over Scotland’s lifetime stats – or at least, lifetime since we signed up to Google Analytics just under two years ago. And as of yesterday, they show that the site has been visited by more than a MILLION different readers over that period. And we’re damned if we’re not taking a moment to reflect on that one.

It’s been quite a ride so far. Let’s make it mean something.

We’ve speculated on a few occasions recently on the effect on Scottish public opinion of almost the entire Scottish media being owned and controlled from outside Scotland. So we thought it was time we actually put some facts and figures to it.

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There’s a pretty in-depth YouGov poll out this morning on the subject of attitudes towards immigration in the UK and Scotland. Some of the results are a little dismaying, others less so, but the media reaction has been predictably superficial.

“Scots want immigration cut and more control”, yells the Scotsman, while the Express goes with “Scots demand curb in migrant numbers” and the Daily Mail unsurprisingly goes for the most extreme xenophobic and anti-SNP interpretation possible:

Only the Herald finds a positive angle, with “Scots more liberal about immigration impact than rest of UK”. But those last two headlines aren’t merely an example of how the same polling data can be spun and twisted to give diametrically opposite impressions. A closer look at the figures shows us how sometimes poll results just don’t make a whole heap of sense in the first place.

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The top five most-read stories on Wings Over Scotland in the last seven days.

1. Unleashing a firestorm
The Financial Times breaks ranks and tells the truth.

2. Ask and ye shall receive
Actual lovebombs from the rest of the UK.

3. Father knows best
Lesley Riddoch puts David Aaronovitch in his place.

4. The ultimate weapon
John Barrowman Of The Week.

5. A mixed day for Johann Lamont
Probably the best she can hope for from now on.

The top two of those are also our all-time #3 and #4 most-read posts, in what’s been a record-shattering start to February. As we write this we’re well over 800,000 pageviews for the week, with five hours to go, compared to the previous best of 618,499. And as for the number of unique visitors, well, we’re not even going to talk about that yet.

We had a rather surprising conversation with Alan Trench of the “Devolution Matters” blog yesterday, and it inspired us to get on with something we’ve been meaning to do for ages anyway: compiling evidence regarding the future of the Barnett Formula for UK public spending should Scotland vote No to independence.

Quotes in no particular order. (Click for sources and dates.) More as we find them.

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As David Cameron came out of the closet this week to proclaim his great love for Scotland (a love most commonly demonstrated by forcing policies on it that its people despise and its elected representatives vote overwhelmingly against), we found ourselves pondering what could have provoked such a drastic step.

After all, it’s hardly a revelation that Etonian English Tory Prime Ministers are not necessarily a demographic Scots are inclined to hear sympathetically. As noted by the esteemed Lallands Peat Worrier earlier this week, until now the operation of the “Better Together” campaign has been clear – Tory money paying for Labour activists, because the latter are a lot more likely to command the hearts of those (mainly the working-class poor) on whose vote the referendum hinges.

So why has Cameron thrown all that away to take a gamble?

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Commentator and writer Lesley Riddoch (whose acclaimed recent book Blossom is a comically absurd bargain at £1.09 on Kindle this month) asked earlier this afternoon for her appearance on today’s Good Morning Scotland along with English journalist David Aaronovitch to be put online, and we’re happy to oblige.

Readers unusually sensitive to condescending, patronising metropolitan hacks talking down to far better-informed debating opponents, and who have any easily-breakable items nearby, are advised not to listen. We were chewing our knuckles all the way through recording it, and it wasn’t even us he was doing it to.

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If nothing else about independence tempts you, surely this does?

“Sixteen per cent of Scottish voters – the equivalent of 640,000 people – say they would think about moving away if Alex Salmond achieves his dream of breaking up the United Kingdom.

Conservative voters were the most likely to say they would think about emigrating or moving to the rest of the UK.“

(It’s from last year, but we doubt they’ve changed their minds.)

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