Much of the commentariat and media has been in a froth for the last 24 hours about the supposed failure of the nation’s pollsters to predict the Conservative victory. This, for example, was Labour’s highly-paid election guru David Axelrod:
But the truth is that the polls – just like the heavily-maligned exit poll which turned out to be bang on the money – got nothing wrong. The people interpreting them did.
We’ve done another poll in conjunction with our dear chums at Panelbase, readers, which we think will be the last full-size Scottish one before the polls open. You may already have seen their headline voting-intention stats, but if not they’re below.
Those numbers suggest, depending which electoral forecaster you feed them into, over 50 seats for the SNP. The poll delivered some extremely interesting results, but we’re going to tease you and hold most of them over until tomorrow, because it’ll actually be a really slow news day.
(September 18 last year was one of the most miserable days of our lives, and we’re not talking about the result. It just seemed to drag on forever and ever, with nothing happening until past midnight. This way there’ll at least be something to read.)
But as a little taster, here’s a fascinating info-nugget.
Greg Moodie’s Election Dissection, a compilation of splendid cartoon strips from The National, Bella Caledonia and elsewhere, is available to order now.
sarah on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “@ Willie: thanks for raising this matter. It is yet another example of the failure by so many people who…” Sep 19, 21:29
Oneliner on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Described as ‘House Jocks’ on Through A Scottish Prism There are many other examples of the subculture” Sep 19, 21:25
Hatey McHateface on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Apology accepted. It was a forced error in the heat of the moment, no more than that. And Alf’s hypocrisy…” Sep 19, 20:40
Hatey McHateface on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “@Spartan My view is that anybody who is willing to sacrifice Ukr, or Isr for that matter, in exchange for…” Sep 19, 20:34
factchecker on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Time for an apology. At at 4.22pm I posted in reply to our learned professor’s delight at Scottish independence being…” Sep 19, 20:06
Spartan 117 on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “@Hatey – The West collectively is doing its best to actively fan the flames of conflict. The nations involved are…” Sep 19, 19:59
Factchecker on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Ah, now I understand. Being born and bred in Scotland, going to a Scottish comprehensive school and a Scottish university…” Sep 19, 19:58
Spartan 117 on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “@Factchecker – To be fair to Alf he was merely quoting 2nd hand, however his selection of sources/quotes does raise…” Sep 19, 19:54
Spartan 117 on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “What a lot of keech being spraffed here. Two PMs since 1997 were Scottish, serving a total of 13 years;…” Sep 19, 19:48
Aidan on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Fuck me Alf – so we’ve got Vl@d, perhaps we can look to get; – Bhaal – Bughuul – the…” Sep 19, 19:48
Hatey McHateface on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: ““WM decisions are made by its MPs, not the PM” Jeezo Xaracen. How many suns do you see in the…” Sep 19, 19:13
Willie on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “To change the dial a touch this Saturday evening I was just catching up on the questions being asked in…” Sep 19, 19:12
Hatey McHateface on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Aw, Dave, it breks ma hert ye’ve nae ither cant tae play wi.” Sep 19, 19:06
Hatey McHateface on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “No shit, Sherlock, erm, Alf. Who’s this Ambassador Murray boy? I don’t waste my time on X.” Sep 19, 18:57
DaveL on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “The self proclaimed factchecker speaks! Who takes any notice of you? You claim at 4.22pm that ‘thousands’ of innocent civilians…” Sep 19, 18:54
TURABDIN on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “@FACTCHECKER, depends on how one might define «Scottish». Pedestrian anglo-unionist clones or a Scot with a functioning individuality. Blair &…” Sep 19, 18:54
Xaracen on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: ““In that time we have been hugely over-represented as leaders of the UK. Hardly a ‘subaltern people’.” WM decisions are…” Sep 19, 18:45
DaveL on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “…but we keep being told by the MSM and you (wee Adolf AKA Hatey) that the Rus are losing the…” Sep 19, 18:37
Dan on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Massively wealthy UK “businessman” and tax resident in Monaco who lays off loads of folk from companies he is involved…” Sep 19, 18:03
factchecker on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “In the last 30 years, on a population basis Scotland should have had a Prime Minister for 3 of them.…” Sep 19, 18:00
TURABDIN on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “assuming your post is not ironic, which i believe it might be, the current UK cabinet has one Scot in…” Sep 19, 17:29
TURABDIN on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “One cannot be too choosey about ones friends or you might end up with none. One may sup….with a long…” Sep 19, 17:10
agentx on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: ““Subaltern peoples” refers to social groups, classes, or populations who are structurally excluded, marginalised, and denied a voice or agency…” Sep 19, 16:53
robertkknight on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Herman Munster couldn’t find Scotland on a map if his next hit of amyl nitrite depended upon it. The Celtic…” Sep 19, 16:45
factchecker on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Our resident professor comments approvingly “In response to the Celtic nations meeting, Lavrov stated explicitly that Ru**ia supports Scotland’s right…” Sep 19, 16:22
TURABDIN on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “@Alf Baird Trying to avoid moderation traps…so here goes sans triggers…. Edward Said was a singular man. I should have…” Sep 19, 16:16
TURABDIN on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “I do not associate Trump or his MAGA foreign policy, or deals as he calls his «ploys», with nuance. The…” Sep 19, 16:02
Alf Baird on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Talking of ‘delusion’, Hatey, the comment below from Ambassador Murray tends to reject yours and your colonial cohorts claim that…” Sep 19, 15:25
James Che on A Thousand Islands In The Sea: “Confused. If it is possible where do you envisage The Westminster parliament and government war being Scotlands if Westminster dates…” Sep 19, 15:09
