Unionists got very excited last week about a YouGov poll for the Times which showed that not only had the post-Brexit bump in support for independence been undone, but that it was now (fractionally) below the level recorded in the indyref for the first time since the September 2014 vote.
(It was a slightly curious poll, with a massively disproportionate number – over 27% – of its respondents born outside Scotland, mostly from the rest of the UK, but it was weighted so that shouldn’t have been much of a factor. It also found majority support for a second EU referendum, despite a 30-point margin for Remain, but opposition to a second indyref despite the margin for the Union being just 12 points.)
Nevertheless, given that nothing’s happened since the end of June that ought to have damaged the case for Yes (the oil price is currently at a 12-month high, for example, almost twice what it was in January), the 10% drop in support is a troubling one for the independence movement.
But it shouldn’t be. Because what the poll shows is that there is currently a majority of people in Scotland prepared to vote for independence.
The Prime Minister of the UK, whose party has one MP in Scotland, officially tells the Commons that she doesn’t believe people on benefits should be able to survive.
There’s been a running theme recently on Unionist social media.
It’s the claim that the No vote in 2014 was an anomaly – a rare victory of progressive, internationalist, inclusive politics over the anti-establishment, isolationist, separatist tone that won out in the EU referendum and now the election of Donald Trump.
Of course, the alternative view is rather simpler – that perhaps the forces that won the EU referendum and 2016 presidency also won the independence referendum.
Regular readers of this site will be impressed, if perhaps less than astonished, at the new high score achieved this week in the timeless game of McTernan Predicts:
There’s a very interesting blog by Douglas Fraser on the BBC website today, pointing out exactly how vague and non-committal yesterday’s “announcement” by UK defence secretary Sir Michael Fallon regarding the long-awaited order of a reduced number of Type 26 frigates for the BAE shipyards in Govan was.
It might explain this extraordinary interview Fallon (alongside a very bad-tempered and unnamed PR goon), gave to Bernard Ponsonby on the evening’s STV News.
What actually happened yesterday was the removal of the threat of blackmail against a Yes vote that had been made against the yards in 2014, and endlessly exploited by the No campaign. The UK government stalled desperately to keep the orders as a bargaining chip in the indyref, not anticipating the prospect of a second one.
But they can’t be delayed forever, and once the orders are in place any possibility of cancelling them is effectively at an end, for a whole slew of mainly extremely obvious reasons. After Fallon had scurried away from him in fear, Ponsonby revealed what the Secretary of State had tried to avoid admitting:
“BAE confirmed to STV News that there is nothing in the contract that would prevent work continuing on the Clyde in the event of a Yes vote in another referendum.”
But Fallon’s toe-curling evasiveness, which finally saw him reduced to hiding behind the skirts of a sour-faced PR woman, had already made that fact clearer than any straight answer could ever have done.
Young Lochinvar on Looking up at the stars: “Beggars; People are generally aware of the latter, sadly not the former. I only point out historical facts for those…” Mar 17, 01:32
Geri on Looking up at the stars: “Just think, shitey.. An Islamic NATO! I’d LMFAO if that is true cause I just know you’d not be able…” Mar 17, 01:28
Geri on Looking up at the stars: “Wrong. As said many times during indyref, you buy the house first before you start arranging the furniture on policy.…” Mar 17, 01:11
Young Lochinvar on Looking up at the stars: “HMcH Eh? No. You’re making a complete diddy of yersel yet again. England lost the 1st War of Independence as…” Mar 17, 01:03
Young Lochinvar on Looking up at the stars: “HMcH Eh? No. You’re making a complete diddy of yersel yet again. England lost the 1st War of Independence as…” Mar 17, 00:59
Geri on Looking up at the stars: “Shiteface, No. They’ll be watching the telly thinking FUCK! Would you jist look at all those eejits who are being…” Mar 17, 00:45
Geri on Looking up at the stars: “He said womens rights would be protected. Yes. He also said the TRA community is a discussion Scotland should have…” Mar 17, 00:09
Cynicus on Looking up at the stars: ““….No invasion that wiped out one group and replaced it. “-Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh, 16 March, 2026 at 10:54 am ======== Fearghas,…” Mar 16, 23:47
Geri on Looking up at the stars: ““100%YES: so how do you see it being sorted AFTER independence” Because we’ll have our own parliament. Not a Unionist…” Mar 16, 23:39
Fearghas MacFhionnlaigh on Looking up at the stars: “Championing Scots is an entirely justified and laudable enterprise. There is world-class literature in it. All Scottish children should become…” Mar 16, 23:38
Lorncal on Looking up at the stars: “Dan: I don’t hate you for accusing me of being a Unionist when I was probably a nationalist when you…” Mar 16, 23:28
Lorncal on Looking up at the stars: “Geri: Alec Salmond said no such thing. He ensured that women’s rights were embedded in Alba policy. You, like several…” Mar 16, 23:03
Lorncal on Looking up at the stars: “100%YES: so how do you see it being sorted AFTER independence? Do tell. Because sorting it PRIOR to independence is…” Mar 16, 22:46
Hatey McHateface on Looking up at the stars: “Aye, Northy, if you start by ignoring the fact that the 2022 census found 5.44 million people in Scotland you…” Mar 16, 22:34
Hatey McHateface on Looking up at the stars: “Not saying any of the blokes in Your Party hate women. But many of them are enthusiastic followers of a…” Mar 16, 22:24
Hatey McHateface on Looking up at the stars: ““keep on making weapons on our soil” FFS, Dan, that ship sailed over 4 years ago. “makes you look obsessed…” Mar 16, 22:19
Northcode on Looking up at the stars: “This from the 2022 Scottish Census: 4.74 million Scots identified as white Scottish/British. 62.4% of that number identified as “Scottish…” Mar 16, 22:13
Hatey McHateface on Looking up at the stars: “I was told that when you finish a packet of smoked salmon, the most environmentally sound course of action is…” Mar 16, 22:09
Lorncal on Looking up at the stars: “Oh, I think he’s given it a great deal of thought, Sarah. He just has a problem with women who…” Mar 16, 22:04
Dan on Looking up at the stars: “Best you keep voting for that Union Jack safety blanket then Lorna. Aye, there’s jist no point in returning to…” Mar 16, 21:54
Lorncal on Looking up at the stars: “H McH: what are you doing? Destroying the only policy we have? If we can’t top anything England does in…” Mar 16, 21:53
sarah on Looking up at the stars: “@ Lorncal at 8.52 p.m.: I feel very much the same as you. The world as it is being run…” Mar 16, 21:30
Lorncal on Looking up at the stars: “H McH: Every statistic and every study undertaken shows categorically that a country where women are treated as less than…” Mar 16, 21:04
Dan on Looking up at the stars: “Hmm, think I’ll finish my fishing session as some quarries jist aren’t worth the effort… But I’m all but fucking…” Mar 16, 20:59
Lorncal on Looking up at the stars: “Sarah: your faith does you proud; but I very much doubt it would be possible to dislodge them after independence…” Mar 16, 20:52
Aidan on Looking up at the stars: “I’m sorry to have disappointed you, but equally I do feel the likelihood was always that it was going to…” Mar 16, 20:29
Hatey McHateface on Looking up at the stars: ““It cannot be Gaelic because only 50,000 people speak the latter” Scots speakers are a minority too, Alf. A bigger…” Mar 16, 20:06
Hatey McHateface on Looking up at the stars: “Lebanon is in for a kicking because they lack the ability to expel the terrorist cuckoos who have been occupying…” Mar 16, 20:00
