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The tipping point 81

Posted on December 18, 2014 by

The argument that seat projections based on current opinion polling give the SNP (based on uniform swing) a wildly unrealistic number of seats seems at first glance to be compelling. More than two dozen current Labour seats have five-figure majorities, and several are higher than 20,000. Taken individually every single one represents a mammoth task, and capturing the bulk of them looks an absurd dream.

tippoint

We’re deeply sceptical ourselves about the predictions giving the SNP 40 or more seats, partly for that reason and partly because the lesson of 2011 – when the Nats somehow pulled off a 30-point poll shift in around six weeks – shows how foolish it is to call a febrile-looking election that’s still the best part of five months away.

So we’re not going to be doing that. We’re not making any forecasts here. Rather, we were interested in taking a look at how it could happen, and how First Past The Post, for so long the SNP’s mortal enemy, could next year become a powerful ally.

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Category analysis, psephology, scottish politics, uk politics

The preposterous truth 251

Posted on December 17, 2014 by

BBC News, 12 September 2014:

“Better Together, which is campaigning for a No campaign, dismissed Mr Farage’s call for the Queen to intervene as ‘absolutely preposterous’.”

The Guardian, 17 December 2014:

“Senior figures in Whitehall and Downing Street became so fearful that the Scottish independence referendum could lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom that the Queen was asked to make a rare public intervention in the final days of the campaign.

Britain’s most senior civil servant and the Queen’s private secretary crafted a carefully worded intervention by the monarch, as No 10 experienced what one senior official described as ‘meltdown’ in the closing stages of the campaign after polls showed growing support for a yes vote.

The discussions between Sir Jeremy Heywood, the cabinet secretary, and Sir Christopher Geidt for the palace, led the Queen to issue an appeal to the people of Scotland four days before the referendum in September to ‘think very carefully’ before casting their vote.

The Queen, who has been scrupulous during her 62-year reign in observing the impartiality expected of a constitutional monarch, intervened publicly on 14 September.”

And with a mighty rush, rebellious Scots to crush, eh readers?

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Category comment, scottish politics

12 eggs, 1 basket 131

Posted on December 17, 2014 by

An alert reader pointed us to the Labour “situations vacant” page:

slabjob

Let’s do the sums on that.

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Category scottish politics, stats

Start as you mean to go on 342

Posted on December 16, 2014 by

When Jim Murphy spoke on last night’s Scotland Tonight, he’d been the “leader” of Scottish Labour for approximately 60 hours. Here’s how he’s going to play it.

Let’s quickly examine those statements, shall we?

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Category comment, investigation, scottish politics

You only sing when you’re winning 212

Posted on December 15, 2014 by

An intriguing extract from the weekend’s YouGov poll for The Sun:

milibandyg

It’s not the biggest vote of confidence, is it?

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Category analysis, psephology, scottish politics, uk politics

The man who should know 117

Posted on December 15, 2014 by

The Times, 14 December 2014:

“Scottish Labour has an ‘intellectual deficit’ because it is filled with ‘time-servers’ given seats to keep them quiet, according to Paul Sinclair, who served alongside Johann Lamont, the Scottish Labour leader, and at the heart of the ‘no’ campaign against Scottish independence.

In an excoriating attack on the moribund state of Labour north of the border, Mr Sinclair said that the party will pay the price in May.”

As someone who wrote Johann Lamont’s speeches for the last three years, on this occasion we’re going to defer to Mr Sinclair’s superior expertise.

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Category comment, scottish politics

Inching towards the truth 321

Posted on December 14, 2014 by

We remain perplexed, readers, by the apparent total lack of interest in the mainstream Scottish media about how many members the Scottish Labour “party” has.

Membership levels are a topical subject in the light of the extraordinary explosion in SNP and Green membership after the referendum, and with a general election just months away in which the make-up of Westminster’s 59-strong Scottish contingent could be crucial to the shape of UK politics for the next five years.

lableaders

The number of members the main Unionist party north of the border can call on to knock doors and deliver leaflets will therefore be a very significant factor in the outcome. Yet on this morning’s Sunday Politics, when presented with an ideal and pertinent opportunity to question new Scottish “leader” Jim Murphy on the subject, Gordon Brewer didn’t even try to ask. What’s with that?

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Category analysis, investigation, media, scottish politics, stats

But seriously 328

Posted on December 13, 2014 by

We suppose we should offer a few thoughts on this, then.

dastardlyandmuttley

And we don’t mean Kezia Dugdale’s freakishly gigantic hands.

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Category analysis, comment, scottish politics

Final destination 64

Posted on December 13, 2014 by

In an alternative universe, Keir Hardie reacts to news of the election of Jim Murphy.

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Category comment, culture, scottish politics, video

The whether report 104

Posted on December 13, 2014 by

murphytoon

Tags:
Category scottish politics

English votes for Scottish laws 235

Posted on December 11, 2014 by

One of our ever-alert agents uncovered this for us today. Published quietly last week by the House Of Commons Library and completely unremarked-upon by the Scottish media, it’s a document whose introductory text makes the relevant point concisely and eloquently without any need for elaboration or explanation on our part.

“The impact of removing Scottish MPs from the records of historic Commons divisions is also estimated. Of approximately 3,600 divisions to occur between 26th June 2001 and 26 September 2014, 22 (0.6%) would have concluded differently had the votes of Scottish MPs not been counted.

The note also compares, for each division since 2001, the lobby in which the majority of MPs per constituent country of the UK have voted to the lobby in which the majority of UK MPs voted.

In the current Parliament the lobby in which the majority of English MPs have voted has coincided with that of the majority of UK MPs for 99% of divisions. The majority of Scottish MPs has coincided with the majority of UK MPs for 24% of divisions; that of Welsh MPs for 26% of divisions.”

The emphasis is ours. England gets what England’s MPs vote for more than 99% of the time. Scotland gets what Scotland’s MPs vote for less than a quarter of the time. We’ll leave it at that.

Tags:
Category analysis, comment, scottish politics, stats, uk politics

A number of complaints 82

Posted on December 10, 2014 by

Just keeping you in the loop, readers.

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Tags:
Category media, scottish politics

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