Wings Over Scotland

Try to ignore the “regional”, and the fact that it’s framed as the Tories vs Labour. This is a new full-sample (1060) poll from YouGov today, and wow.

(The left-hand bar in each pair is 2017, the right-hand one is 2019.)

And you thought Kezia Dugdale’s nadir of 14% would never be beaten.

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It doesn’t happen often, but it has today. Because Nick Robinson said this:

You know, Nick Robinson. It was Nick Robinson who just complained about someone misleadingly editing an interview to make it look as though someone hadn’t answered a question. Seriously, the actual Nick Robinson.

We’ve got nothing, folks.

This is a tweet today from Allan Sutherland, a prominent No activist (he’s currently co-ordinating an attempt to unseat Ian Blackford in Ross, Skye and Lochaber via Unionist tactical voting) and regular fixture of the letters pages of all Scottish newspapers.

The tweet literally incites – indeed, implores – not one but two very serious criminal offences. (His Twitter account also includes such satirical gems as tweeting a video of the First Minister’s speech on Saturday with the voice of Adolf Hitler dubbed over it.)

The tweet comes days after a Scottish Labour candidate tweeted a meme depicting someone spraying bleach on SNP MP Joanna Cherry with the caption “BANG! and the terf is gone”, despite said candidate being supported by the Jo Cox Foundation – a charity set up after the Labour MP of that name was murdered with a gun.

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Dear Catherine,

You probably haven’t heard of me. I’m a notoriously “vile” political blogger who’s said a few pretty mean things on social media about politicians in the last eight years. But perhaps that’s partly because I’m a grumpy old white guy who hasn’t had the benefit of your commendable programme aimed at “building the fairer, kinder & more tolerant world the late Jo Cox MP believed in”.

I note also your pinned tweet expressing concern at women being driven out of public life, something which has been in the news very recently and which I presume includes people like Joanna Cherry MP, who has received death threats and been required to have police protection to carry out her constituency surgeries.

So I hope you’ll understand my alarm over what happened today.

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The election campaign is one day old and already we want to kill everyone.

Alert readers may have spotted a rather conspicuous absence there. (And here.)

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As we steel ourselves for the wretched purgatorial misery of (at least) the next six weeks, we’ve been sitting up late trying to think of a positive aspect of the coming election campaign, and the best we’ve come up with is this: if it’s awful for most human beings in the country, just imagine how terrible it is for Nigel Farage.

Because as has been increasingly obvious from the Brexit Party leader’s comments this month, Farage knows only too well the truth that the rest of the country is going to realise quite soon, if it hasn’t already: he’s now the only thing that might stop the UK leaving the European Union.

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It’s a long time, apparently. Because while a general election on 12 December would be a “barking mad” idea according to the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford on Thursday, having one on 9 December instead is genius.

So in a month in which this site has been extensively screamed at by SNP diehards as the work of a “traitor” and an “MI5 plant” for suggesting that maybe the SNP could vote with the Tories (or perhaps just abstain) to let Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal go through in exchange for a second indyref, the official SNP plan is to now vote with the Tories to give them the election Boris Johnson has been trying to call for weeks – which all polls suggest he’d win, allowing him to enact any sort of Brexit he wants – but to cleverly NOT get a second indyref out of it.

Y’know what, folks, we can’t even be bothered.

It’s Monday morning, readers, so welcome once again to the world’s favourite situation comedy, the United Kingdom.

The current position is that absolutely nobody has the slightest idea what’s going to happen this week, or today, or by lunchtime. The Prime Minister is as we speak being taken to court (again), and a whole series of votes in the House Of Commons may or may not take place and may or may not determine anything.

But there’s one particularly interesting thing going on.

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As we write this, Boris Johnson’s new Brexit deal appears to hang in the balance. According to Sky News this morning the arithmetic is poised on a knife-edge.

The four “in play” groups down the middle of the graphic are, from the top: three Tory “Spartans” (hardcore Brexiters who might yet back the deal), 19 Labour MPs who’ve suggested they might do so for various reasons, 20 former-Tory “rebels” who had the whip removed by Johnson for voting to block no-deal, and 14 independents, mainly from the “Change UK” wing or whatever they’re called this week.

The government needs 36 of the 56 to vote with it to get the deal through, and can probably count on most of the 20 former Tories. Labour sources are suggesting, quite plausibly, that double-figure numbers of their 19 will also back the deal. So it’s close.

If it passes, England and Wales will get what they voted for (Brexit), Northern Ireland will – after a fashion – get what it voted for (effectively staying in the EU), and Scotland will get shafted. It’ll be placed at a significant economic disadvantage to NI, at a likely severe cost in jobs and investment. The nation which voted the most decisively on Brexit (for either option) will be the only one not to get its democratic wishes respected.

And slightly surprisingly, the whole UK thinks that’s unfair.

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16 votes, up to a maximum of 31, you say?

If only there was a party with enough MPs to turn that round, eh?

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