Shifting the goalposts
A variant on the story below appears in most of the right-wing press today.
That’s the Daily Mail version, which is the most detailed. The Express’s reporting was similar. But in order to manufacture a grievance on behalf of UKIP and the Tories, every paper which covers the story is required to torture the data beyond all reason.
Firstly, it should be pointed out that the numbers provided simply don’t add up. There’s no way to reconcile the supplied figures – a mixture of absolute numbers and proportions – in such a way that everything works.
But we can approximate from what we’re given that the audience must have been roughly 250 strong and broken down pretty much like this:
Undecided: 50
Conservative: 50
Labour: 50
Lib Dem: 40
SNP: 20
Plaid Cymru: 20
Green: 10
UKIP: 10
Now, to an impartial observer that might seem like rather generous treatment of the Tories and Lib Dems – despite not participating, they still got 36% of the audience (90/250). And since other than UKIP this was basically a fight for the left-wing vote – Labour, the SNP, Plaid and the Greens would all lay claim to that status, convincingly or otherwise – it seems fair that the audience would reflect that target.
But in fact it didn’t. The gripes in the Mail and Express about an unfair left bias are based on the scarcely-credible allocation of the Lib Dems to the “left-wing” bloc, an absurd claim not backed up by any rational assessment.
The independent Political Compass‘ 2015 view is below, showing Nick Clegg’s “Orange Book” version of the party – the Orange Book is a 2004 policy document described by the BBC in 2011 as “the unofficial manifesto of the Liberal Democrats’ right wing” – shifting right from what was already a soft centre-right position in 2010 (the striped circle in the purple quadrant).
Such left-wing policies as the Lib Dems might still have possessed after a decade of Orangeism – ending tuition fees, reforming the House Of Lords and the electoral system – were casualties of the coalition agreement with the Tories. They’ve presided over austerity and swingeing cuts in welfare. They are in practice, by any reasonable definition, now a party of the centre-right.
If we apply that to the numbers, then, the debate audience becomes:
Right-wing parties: 100 (50 Tory, 40 Lib Dem, 10 UKIP)
Left-wing parties: 100 (50 Lab, 20 SNP, 20 PC, 10 Green)
Undecided: 50
Which seems to us like it’s bending over backwards to be fair in a debate that was primarily a battle between four parties talking to left-wing voters.
Readers will be aware that this site isn’t slow to criticise the state broadcaster, particularly when it comes to matters of impartiality. But on this occasion it’s clearly the victim of a distorted and unjust attack. The accusation that poor Nigel Farage was ambushed with an unbalanced 2:1 crowd of “lefties” is demonstrably tommyrot.
Labour as a left wing party and Liberal as a right wing one? On the compass one is a tad more right and other a tad more authoritarian, but since the ‘normal political spectrum’ runs from top right to bottom left, there is little choose between them!
21stC Labour are perhaps soft neo-liberal which definitely is not left wing.
I would say
60 far right
90 centre right Lab+Lib
50 centre left
40 undecided
Perhaps it’s actually indication of how far removed Scottish politics is from mainstream London based opinion.
They have to explain the success of the nasty leftie ladies in the debate in some way, so here comes the first cheap shot. I think the growing UK-wide popularity of the three Ladies has spooked the Tory press big time. Months of hard work trying to demonise Sturgeon, Wood and Bennet, has simply not worked and they are dismayed that a progressive left movement is taking root across the country. When heavy, unfounded criticism turns to slurs and insults, you just know we are winning.
They are seriously rattled. This wasn’t meant to happen – not on their watch. It’s going to get a lot worse over the next two weeks.
http://caltonjock.com/2014/11/26/michael-mccann-mp-south-lanarkshire-a-constituency-within-which-labour-are-no-strangers-to-sleaze/
Utterly dastardly of the neo communistic, independence supporting, broadcaster…
“some of whom were brought in from Scotland and Wales”..
What?; Foreigners being brought in for an English General Election debate, two of them even managed to get on the stage and gatecrash the speakers….
So we’ve got Labour trailing in the east end of Glasgow, BBC showing left wing bias and Dundee in the top six… the world’s gone mad
Oh jings!
Any excuse to explain away a public gubbing. 🙂
Strangely though I don’t recall them moaning about the audience balance in the seven leaders debate. Perhaps they thought our FMs performance a flash in the pan?
They’ll soon learn better.
What the data actually would tell you going by the Mail’s own analysis is that the country is generally left leaning.
And such headings in the press simply shows where the papers’ true allegiance lies…
Will you slow down a bit, Stu? No sooner do I get to the end of one thread, than another article pops up. I feel like a lemming whose cliff keeps getting moved!
Yep, audience seemed reasonable to me
Although Jane Hill of the BBC doing an outside broadcast from
Watford, on showing a picture of Harold Wilson and wife Mary
announces it is in fact Ted Heath
So even when they do something right is it just by accident
coz accuracy isn’t their strong point is it really
BBC sometimes finds facts difficult or do they
I wonder if the ploy is to pretend that the shit channel can in leading up to g.e.say they
Were not biased pointing to this program in particular
I still love the wit who, during the referendum, described the Conservatives, UKIP, Labour and LibDems as “Tory, Tory Max, Tory Lite and I Can’t Believe It’s Not Tory”.
Sums it up very nicely as far as I am concerned.
https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10200443868656671&set=p.10200443868656671&type=1
O/T
enough said!
Donald Urquhart,
You beat me to it! What possible surprise is the fact that they had folk from the celtic nations in attendance for a UK debate? Maybe they should have used English SNP supporters instead? By all accounts there are quite a few south of the border now!
What is even more remarkable is that after the debate John Pienaar manged to talk to two of the audience and both Kippers (although one was leaning away).
Audience seemed largely (unusually) balanced to me: not nearly as much clapping for anti-Trident/anti-war stuff as I’d anticipate from a purely leftie audience.
The Mail are just used to zealot audiences whooping and hollering about nuclear weapons on Question Time.
Considering the jaw dropping support, coverage, fluffing BBC has given Farage and his UKIP freak show, well its another day in loony tunes tory world teamGB.
BBC impartial Scotland managed to get that lunatic UKIP MEP Coburn elected last year, part of their cunning vote NO Scotland strategy and endless excruciating embarrassment for Scots.
To be fair, if you are as far to the right as Farage and Co, it must feel that there is a constant left wing bias.
Didn’t the WOS surveys during indyref, suggest that Scottish Liberal Democrat voters are more conservative than Scottish Tories? 🙂
I think the political reality is that Brits tend to be small “c” conservatives, though we aspire to a more egalitarian society than our political masters will countenance. Hence the constant diet of fear and ‘right-wing’ dogma, to keep the unwashed masses in place.
Here’s another article I posted in Off Topic last week, for all you “I’m not visiting Off Topic” snobs. 🙂
https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/adam-ramsay/old-order-is-dying-but-refuses-to-go-quietly
We should never forget that the Daily Mail is actually evil.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r9dqNTTdYKY
If the Daily Mail hates you, you’re probably doing something right.
Going on proportion, you might consider that the audience was anti-scottish (I doubt if the company bothered to balance the nationalities) and yet Nicola won through. Perhaps UKIP and their vile supporting media should look to their leader and his policies.
Sure, those might well be the facts but what have the facts got to do with the low I.Q. imbeciles who read the Mail? 😉
Spin by omission… That would be professor curtiss on what Scotland thinks… But cannot utter, he seems not to have noticed the Ashcroft poll, no mention on it in his opinion section.
Perhaps it was just too unpalatable and as such unmentionable, you wouldn’t want to scare the horses.
You mean 50 undecided.
@Paul D
Talking of SNP supporters South of the Border, if the SNP was to stand in the “English” seats down to Hadrian’s Wall that would be
Berwick
Hexham
Wansbeck
Blyth Valley
Newcastle North
” Central
” East
North Tyneside and
Tynemouth.
Theoretically we should also upset Rory in Penrith and the Borders but we could “swap” its northerly bits for those in Hexham that are south of the Wall.
Question is should we stand as SNP or set up and stand as SNP (England) with a manifesto to support the SNP in bringing their progressive policies to England.
I wonder how we would fare?
donnywho 6.57
There’s no mention at all of the Ashcroft poll yet anywhere on BBC Scotland website. I think they must be waiting for a senior spinner to come back from their day off, meanwhile don’t even mention it.
Got to take issue at some of the assumptions stu.
There is no way on this gods earth the current Labour Party are fighting for a left leaning vote.
They are assuming that the lefties will blindly vote labour like their forefathers while they fight for the middle ground that the Lib dems have vacated.
UKIP are the most honest of the right wingers right now.
They make no excuses and no pretentious to attract anywhere near the middle ground.
They want the extreme right and they will get it
The only genuine socialists on the stage were Nicola and Plaid Cymry.
Ed could learn a lot from them.
Wulls, have you any reason to suppose that Mr Milliband wants to be a socialist? He looks like an old fashioned tory to me
Didn’t this site used to offer a £50 (or was it £5?) prize for spotting a factual error?
Well I claim my £5 for Stu’s inclusion of Labour under ‘left’.
They are solidly top-right on the Political Compass diagram.
One of those is a lie.
An impartial reading of the Financial Times just before the budget, and a comparable analysis of the Labour Party’s behaviour in the actual budget vote, reveals the FT to be well to the left of the Labour Party in economics, and indeed morals. And we’re asked to believe in a return to the party of John Smith. They really do think we’re daft.
The bottom line probably is that the natural majority of decent people are to the left, even in the UK. Hope so.
The real point is that the majority in Scotland is to the left. And civic nationalism is a justified and rational expression of that fact.
@donnywho
Yup! The prof is poring over the runes on the Ashcroft polls right enough. I have been dropping by over the last couple of days to see what he thinks but nothing…yet.
My better, other half completed a U-Gov online survey on Wednesday so I’m expecting a poll along soon.
My labour acquaintance I met at the swimming pool a few days ago who was not a happy bunny after the Glenrothes by-election and said on Dim Jim “what’s all that about”.
I met him in LIDL about tea time, still giving the red tories his vote. but hopes Jim will lose his seat. FGS! 🙂
He’s been doing it for over 40 years….Only 18 days to go
OT
Check this out : / just watched this not sure if its old new been posted before etc. But I’m pretty blown away by this…. Check out what she says near the end that she is the parliamentary candidate! To he fair she is actually giving it a go but the guy is about as useful as tests on a boar. It seems that the work has turned in these times if information and people want to actually have a discourse with you, politicians are running scared its so exposing!!!https://youtu.be/3cPah7lSWV4
Lately I’ve been noseying around a few of the anti independence bloggers just to see what there saying regarding this GE vote.
I have to say “there all fuckin mental”.
How can anyone claim to be a socialist whilst being a fanboy for the increasingly fascistic Israeli political establishment? Isn’t Zionism the embodiment of imperialism?
Always looking for an excuse to blame everyone but themselves. Ah England , you can keep your mitts off Scottish MP’s
Keep the SNP in Scotland please.
There is no point in putting up SNP mp’s in England. They can piss off and get there own.
The talent we have here is ours. England always claiming but never doing.
SNP Scottish (not English) National party.
They have ukip, EDL, BNP and a host of others along side the three liars. They might complain but do bugger all to change things .
they can GTF
Why are you counting Labour among the “left wing vote”?
Labour left wing – chokes on fish supper and coughs up last of the Belhaven.
Rump uk’s no got talent.
O/T – Apologies.
Rev Stu–we have seen an awful lot of opinion polls been carried out by the MSM, few (if any) of which people here on Wings actually trust. And for good reason. I would like to see an independent poll commissioned, one that I can absolutel trust. That would be a Wings commissioned poll. Anything in the offing? Pretty please… with bells on…
Matthew Parris, today’s Times : England is the “boss nation”.
“For all our often sentimental attachment to the abstract idea of union, we do (without always admitting it to to ourselves) rather assume that it’s a union in which England is the boss nation.”
Aaaahh, subservience, donchajus luv it?… What happened to the ‘most successful multi-cultural, multi-national union in history’?
OMFG how dare they bring people from Wales and Scotland to England to a debate featuring parties that only contest seats in Wales and Scotland.
@ handclapping at 7.15pm
“Question is should we stand as SNP or set up and stand as SNP (England) with a manifesto to support the SNP in bringing their progressive policies to England”.
If you really wanted to upset Rory the Tory, what about SNP (No borders) as a candidate description? 🙂
The Libdems are definitely well to the right. I have noticed for a number of years how they are always right there at the front when it comes to promoting military action. Liberals – a collection of hypocrites more like. Is there really anyone with integrity who still supports them?
@Rev – or anyone living in England.
Any chance of walking the streets and doing a quick straw poll? The question: “In politics, do you know who Jim Murphy is?”.
As far as the audience goes I thought they were largely left-wing, but it could just be that they were the noisy lot!
Well at least Matthew Parris is prepared to be honest about it.
Democracy reborn: what else does Parris say? Does he feel regretful that England is the boss nation? Does he grasp that Scots might no longer wish to be bossed? (Paywall)
Sorry to hijack this thread. Could someone with decent knowledge assist me (i’m too lazy to google) in answering these questions from a Tory supporting friend please?
Tell me something (well two things) John, being that you seem to buy into this “SNP to save to scottish NHS” line. No matter who is providing a service the health care budget in England is paying for it so why would this have an impact on the differential for the Barnett formula? And secondly if the SNP are so dedicated to the NHS in Scotland why have they cut funding to it?
Same papers who complained about the biased audience in the BBC Salmond v Darling debate.
The BBC released the number of complaints ,130 from the No campaign in this case. The only time they ever released complaint numbers during the indyref.
Why are they so reticent not to release the number of complaints this time?
Strange that?
The SG has “cut funding” because the value of the block grant they receive from London has fallen over the last 4 years. In fact they have worked hard to protect NHSS from worse cuts by cutting harder elsewhere (e.g. transport, education, etc.)
As the SG doesn’t have control of most financial levers there is little room for manoeuvre each time the block grant reduces.
The impact on Barnettt is that something like 8 -10% of NHS England is in private hands. Although these companies are ultimately paid by the Government that is not seen as direct Government spending on NHSE so the effect is one of reduced public spending on NHSE which knocks on to the Barnett formula.
Also it maybe that NHSE has reduced spending on things SG has decided to support (e.g. free eye tests in Scotland). Anything which is seen to reduce public spending in England has knock on effects for Scotland, Wales and NI.
That’s my understanding anyway but happy to be corrected if I am wrong.
Nicola said on Thursday the Scottish government raised the Nhs budget from 8 billion to 12 billion so that’s increased. The argument is always put over by Westminster party’s with the added phrase “in real terms the budget has been cut” now I dunno what these real terms are supposed to mean based on how the rest of the UK works out there Nhs services. Best to research that one in greater detail but am sure the added phrase used by the union party’s is designed as a trip up and probably more politically motives rather than the whole truth.
Whatever England spends on health services the Barrett formula takes as the Nhs fund and its percentage based for Wales,Scotland and Ireland. So if they reduce there Nhs services budget be it cleaning staff or doctors and sells they services to private company’s to run as a business it forces the other 3 nations of the UK to follow what England does or they get a reduced amount of money to spend on there own Nhs.
A very basic example would be.
£20 billion soent on doctors.
20 billion on nurses.
20 billion on equipment,
20 billion on cleaning services and maintenance.
Equals 80 billion spent.
Scotland gets 10% of that to spend on its Nhs so Scotland thru Barnet gets 8billion.
But say England sells contracts for cleaning services and maintenance to private companies, there now only spending 60 billion so Scotland now gets 6 billion through Barnett. So Scotland either follows England’s model and gets private business in or it has to spend less on nurses and doctors to try and keep cleaning services and maintenance as part of the Nhs.
That’s a very very very basic example so do t go quoting me. That’s how I’ve always seen the argument.
Barnett is calculated pro rata. If English NHS spending is cut (because they’ve hived off a section of it to some cut price private firm to deliver, like Virgin healthcare) then Scottish NHS budget will be cut too under the Barnett calculation.
As to SG cutting NHS in Scotland… this is news to me. But there are Labour accusations to that effect, that £100 million has not been spent. Sorry, don’t know the details. But my guess is that they’ve not really cut it at all, but juggled budgets about.
As long as we are joined at the hip fiscally, if England sneezes, there’s a tsunami in Scotland. That’s why there is truly no such thing as EVEL, as we are so joined together, and Scottiish MPs must retain the right to vote on English matters as it is going to affect Scotland indirectly.
John at 8.50
Here comes another one.
1. Because Scotland gets a per capita share of Health spending. If Health spending is cut back in England Scotland’s spending is cut back by the same proportion.
2. They haven’t
Thank you for the quick replies folks.
@Sunniva
I was only able to read an extract of Parris’s Times article over on Derek Bateman’s Twitter page. But the theme appeared to be that England (the “boss nation”) would not accept the SNP exercising any meaningful influence at Westminster. After a year or two, England would be “dismayed” and would want Scotland “to go”.
As someone’s already commented, at least Parris is honest and articulates what many of us already know. What amuses me though is the large number of ProudScotButs that continue to swallow the ‘partnership of nations’ horseshit.
From Government report
Spending on Scotland’s health service will increase in real terms next year, taking Scottish health spending above £12 billion for the first time.
The overall increase of £256 million in health resource spending – exceeding the Barnett consequentials – announced by Finance Secretary John Swinney in today’s Budget statement, will see a 2.2 per cent increase on frontline NHS resource spending. Additional Capital funding will take the overall increase to £288m in 2015-16, bringing the total health budget to £12.16 billion.
The 2015/16 Budget will see provisions for free school meals, £4.5 billion for health and education infrastructure and, for the first time, a £12 billion plus total health budget.
And secondly if the SNP are so dedicated to the NHS in Scotland why have they cut funding to it?
John
What is this cut that you speak of? The SNP have increased funding.
I believe the claim is that the Tories have actually increased spending more. However, this then begs the question, if the Tories have spent more (they may well have) why are their performance figures worse than the Scottish NHS? If Labour are so safe with the NHS why is the Welsh NHS toiling even harder than the English NHS?
The demands on the NHS are huge and one could spend a fortune on IT systems and contracting out services and all sorts of things. The SNP are keeping the SNHS closer to the original ethos of the original vision than either the Tories or Labour.
Labour left wing? When?
After all the bookie-related excitement yesterday, the Labour odds have calmed a jot.
Today, SSP Ayrshire was in Kilmarnock. I was showing colleagues the notes I’d kept of the shifting odds during the week. Turns out one of the guys used to run a bookies’ shop, so he knows this stuff inside-out – he was astonished at how quickly the numbers moved yesterday (he loudly exclaimed FFS! seven times consecutively as he was reading them) and agreed that there must be something more at work than reaction to the Ashcroft poll.
Someone has been fancying yesterday’s bonkers prices e.g. Katy Clark being 10/1 last night, so the numbers have changed again, but not by much – here they are, today compared to last Sunday evening:
Edin South, was 5/6, now 11/10
Glas East, was 9/4, now 5/1
Glas SW, was 8/11, now 6/1
Paisley/Renf Sth, was 8/11, now 11/4
N Ayrshire/Arran, was 7/2, now 8/1
Ayshire Central, was 8/11, now 2/1
Renf East, was 4/9, now EVENS
JOHN, re: the NHS
If your friend won’t believe the SNP on the NHS, then here’s JIM Murphy (no friend of the SNP), admitting it.
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2015/mar/murphy-admits-westminster-threat-scottish-nhs
AND Alistair Carmichael (Libdem)
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2015/jan/carmichael-admits-impact-english-nhs-budget
http://caltonjock.com/2014/10/12/margaret-curran-how-the-hell-did-she-get-away-with-it-for-so-long-time-to-retire-to-your-1million-house-in-newlands/
@John says: 18 April, 2015 at 8:50 pm:
“No matter who is providing a service the health care budget in England is paying for it so why would this have an impact on the differential for the Barnett formula?
I’m tired of explaining it but here we go again. England has no parliament and thus no block grant. England is directly funded as The United Kingdom by the various United Kingdom ministries and it is those Ministries that are funded.
When a statement says, (for example), United Kingdom Transport it is English only transport as everyone else funds their transport from within their block grant.
So that’s the first fact – there is no English only Funding.
As England is directly funded by the treasury and we all pay tax to the Treasury then the Scots, Welsh and N.Irish and English all contribute towards English services.
” … And secondly if the SNP are so dedicated to the NHS in Scotland why have they cut funding to it?
Simples! They haven’t.
Now here’s how English, (a.k.a. United Kingdom), funding affects the, (either positive or Negative), Scottish Block Grant. The sole function of the Barnett Formula is to assess the per capita value Englanders get from services provided directly by those Unite Kingdom Ministries that have been devolved to the other UK countries. Then it allocate to the Scottish Block Grant, on a per capita basis, that sum to finance the devolved service that Englanders get directly from UK ministries.
Thus if the UK, (English), function has a cut in funding then Barnett’s Formula calculates a negative Barnett Consequential cut in the Scottish Block Grant. If there is an increase in the UK, (English), funding the calculation returns a positive Barnett Consequential.
Did you imagine they devolved the functions to Scotland but not the funds to run them? We have no tax raising powers but pay our tax to the UK, so how did you imagine we could pay for services?
BTW: They do not increase or decrease the funding consequentials as they happen. The calculation is done for the next years Block Grant and the gains and losses included in the calculation for the following year.
And another thing – as the three devolved countries all have different levels of devolved functions and England has none. That explains why the English are so thick they imagine they get less per capita funding and have never ceased to drip about it.
Summing up – the funds England gets are United Kingdom funds and the whole UK pays the same rates of tax – ergo the English tax does NOT fund everyone else. In fact Scots pay the highest per capita tax of any UK country.
The value of English services direct via ministries sets the per capita funding, (Barnett Formula), for the other countries devolved functions. Scottish NHS is an entirely different NHS and it always has been and it’s funding was increased every year by the SG, so false information.
With respect – ion future please do your own research – I’ve better things to do. Then, if you don’t understand it is the time to ask for help.
I’m getting all fluttery every time I see ‘Dave McEwan Hill’.
An attempt however to polarise things with farage the puppet included to seem like it was balanced? I could be wrong but I wouldn’t trust beeb any more than a red or blue tory. In fact, looking at the attempts to call NIcola S and others lefties, I would go so far as to say it was all set up. Just a thought.
Democracy Reborn. Do Proud Scots really swallow all that equal partnership bull? I think it is just something they trot out to put us in our place. In their heart of hearts they’re not Scots but Brits so it really doesn’t matter to them.
BBC biased lol??
. Oh kharma
Seen this first on sky news. Again lol GIRUT
@steveasaneilean says: 18 April, 2015 at 9:11 pm
“Also it maybe that NHSE has reduced spending on things SG has decided to support (e.g. free eye tests in Scotland). Anything which is seen to reduce public spending in England has knock on effects for Scotland, Wales and NI.
That’s my understanding anyway but happy to be corrected if I am wrong.”
Almost correct, steveasaneilean. with one wee proviso.
The UK Government often cheats Scotland, Wales and N. I. by funding things that are linked to UK, (English), funding for Barnett Consequentials from other than the normal funding sources that carry Barnett Consequentials.
For Example all English infrastructure expenditure should properly come from such as DEFRA funding but the £4.1bn New London Sewerage System was funded from Government Reserves that everyone contributes to. This has No Barnett Consequentials. Then there is the London Cross Rail System, London Olympics, Chunnel Infrastructure such as roads and rail links, London Dome. Not sure but I think the HS Rail links too.
Evening , while doing my usual channel surfing tonight , I caught the end of Political Studies Association (PSA) on BBC Parliament.
It was bla bla bla until the speaker moved to the options after the GE specifically , if I remember correctly 42% Cons along with others DUP etc could be Gvt .
Naturall leaving Labour @58% chance with others .
The speaker An expert pollster ,JC was there too , then explained how Labour would speak to DUP, Liberal,Green , PC etc etc and try to form the GVT without the SNP !
Nothing new to us but it was very very clear this is how the experts see it pan out .
Never has it been so crucial for as many MPS as possible , every scalp will count .
I should add this item was recorded on Thursday 16th before Friday’s polls .
Seams like there are more polls in mawneens Sunday Rags .
Paula Rose
…and him wae a club foot to…..
Sunday Herald front page;
https://twitter.com/newsundayherald/status/589544293594959874/photo/1
A greens voter asked me on West Kilbride stall today if SNP supported PR .I said yes I thought that they did in past not sure of current policy anyone know details,cheers.
Labour and their BBC cheerleaders are nowhere near the Left in UK OK politics.
Recession hitting more than just the poor.
Don’t presume my views but pitch up the following perspective for thought.
The Liberal party were consistently a party which with the FPTP system garnered a lot of votes but relatively fewer seats. Not dissimilar to the SNP position at times in the past.
A significant crticism of the Liberals was (and still is with the Lib Dems) that precious few of them had any signiicant leadership experience and none of them had any government experience.
As a party the LD’s had to make a call between the two “experienced contendors”, one of whom had just been seen to let down the nation to a significant measure.
Their ensuing judgement may have been proven to be wrong in some respects but at a higher level they’ve now got some individual party members who have significant Government experience.
On that basis isn’t there more potential for the SNP to work with the Lib Dems to some extent rather than either the Tories, who are tired and unwilling to see any other future, and Labour who are so keen to be in power that they are willing to discard any party policy that might have had some credibilty?
@Archie Hamilton 11.03pm
One slight snag with that argument; it’s based on the assumption that there will be enough surviving LibDems for them to be significantly worth working with!
@Kevin Meina –
You coming to the Mayday WOS bash in Counting House, Glasgow?
Apologies if you’ve already confirmed, but I’ve lost the plot with my list. BDTT has been doing it. Just wondering, and if you are coming, are you bringing anyone?
Don’t mean to be nosey, but are you actually W. Kilbride based? I have reason for asking, but wont go into it here.
In any event, hoots, and keep watching dem odds!!
Archie Hamilton
Surely the years of competent working in Government in Scotland has qualified the SNP ministers to a very high standard of efficiency as well as probity.
Think, Nicola, Alex, John Swinney and all. None better in Westminster.
Not convinced that “experience in government” is all that useful in any case. Attlee seems to me to have had more brains and more principles than he had experience: and so did that whole cabinet, or am I wrong about that? He didn’t do PR, either
Rock darling – long time no read xxx
Well,so called left wing labour leader Miliband has just pivoted to the right, abandoning Murphy to the wolves by announcing that he wants to be the champion of “moderate Tories”
60% SNP vote and a total wipe out of Labour in Scotland looks to be a distinct possibility.
Red Tories OUT.
Just had a chance to watch this –
Maybe its just me – but seriously worried by K Dugdales comments on UK newsnight on Friday night during interview.
Her response to quest on Labours failings in Scotland;
nothing to worry about we haven’t seen the postal votes yet …?
Questioner never mentioned postal vote but that is Labour defence
whats going on ??
Anyone else worried by this?
Will the global Scotland wide postal vote be able to be identified to see if it varies from actual votes cast and if said actual votes mirror snap polls in run up then postal vote issues would be magnified ?
Did anyone else see or hear this alarmingly suggestive info from Ms Dugdale ? Started to freak me out when I watched it again.
Yes gordoz – do the face to face, keep going – get out there everyone and answer questions, explain and elucidate.
To Ian brotherhood yes live in west Kilbride been canvassing in wk and Saltcoats and on wk stall on a Saturday and have also been on Saltcoats one as well.Cant say I had given counting house much thought to be honest.
Sorry, haven’t read all the comments but would just like to point out that Karl Marx, a very long tme ago, probably about a hundred years ago, pointed out that the Liberals will always sell out the lower classes after cultivating their support.
What’s new?
So, it took 2 pseudo-journalists to write that piece of crap!
Katherine Rushton and Jack Doyle; surely if you base an article on bias and spin rather than fact and news, the least you can do, is do it yourself, it can’t be difficult.
Laughable.
Gordoz, I heard Dugdale say that as well. ‘We haven’t seen the postal votes yet’. It was over in a flash but like you I thought it was odd.
Craig Murray has a post about this today. He says that there are 800,000 postal votes in Scotland and he thinks it is very easy to fake.
It will indeed be very odd if months and months of polls are not reflected in the postal votes. TNS the other day said that 29% are still undecided, which is a very large number. James Kelly thinks most indecideds will probably not bother voting and that TNS tends to estimate the undecideds rather high.
@Kevin M –
Cheers.
If you fancy going, there should be a fair squad from Ayrshire, so a lot of us will be sharing the same trains back. I’m in Stevenston, and I know for sure there are folk in Kilwinning/Saltcoats/Ardrossan/WK who may also be going.
If you’re up for it, please follow developments via O/T. Last year was brilliant, a really good night, if all-too brief. No reason why this one shouldn’t be better – more the merrier an aw that!
Sounds good not much of a drinker but sounds like good night out.You going to RIC in Stevenson tomorrow.
Any postal vote fraud will be obvious in the face of the ashcroft polls. Validity and consistency of data is always questionable though. Pinch of salt and all that. I wonder about his motivations.
Open revolt is perhaps Westminsters ultimate aim. Then the excuse to mobilise the uk state against Scotland would be justified in their eyes. But we are holding the line without stooping to their level. They just do not know how to deal with us now. We are a foreign country to them.
NI is perhaps the situation the strategists in MI5/6 would prefer but people pulling in the one direction irrespective of class/creed/colour/nation/culture or perspective is just something they just can’t deal with.
CRAIGthePICT – Hi again, good to meet you at the Radical Road Pub today with X-Sticks. 🙂
Hope you’ll come along to the Counting House in Glasgow on May 1st. And if you put your name down in O/T, you’ll also get a Wings badge with your name when you get there. 🙂 Who could ask for anything more?
@Sunniva / Paula Rose
K Dugdale did get my attention with that statement – all / we must hit the streets and counter any meddling.
Take nothing for granted – they are capable of anything – Postal votes again a worry !
Oil and gas. Whisky. Agriculture. Forestry. Tourism. Entertainment. Culture. Integrity. Identity. Belonging. Culture. Open mindedness. They lack all this and seek to undermine us.
Sie alle verdienen im langes und gluckliches lieben im frieden.
@Kevin M –
Tomorrow is Ardrossan Civic Centre, the RIC gig?
I’m hoping to go. Won’t know for sure until mid-day-ish.
I just watched Friday’s Newsnight. Is it true Scottish labours dept leaders own dad is an SNP member?
Gordoz @ 11.31
Sorry have not viewed KD myself but quite a few posts about in previous threads about it .
You did hear correctly , anyone got it recorded ?
May be good to keep or better still post on line .
Wuffing Dug @12.17
Ref ” They do not know how to deal with it”
Lab & Cons are pulling stuff out o the bag now .
Labour are now gonna be magic on Immigration .
And for the better off , the Cons will sell shares in Lyods Bank !
I wonder what undeliverable nonsense will they announce next ?
How is it even probable or possible to have 800,000 postal votes out of a population as small as Scotland’s? That huge number definitely points to corruption.
TTIP protests now happening across Europe , even in Germany .
Saw a bit on RT about the corruption in Greece , the rich inc politicians avoiding paying TAX & hiding money in Swiss Banks etc and naturally only a few prosecutions likely , same old story .
Does anyone know about the poor and homeless gathering for protests @ Buck Palace ? Not being reported .
Oil heading for $70 / Barrel !
It’s so quiet …….
Capella
Is it possible to be a socialist and an anti-Semite? I have stated before that Marx was a rabid anti-Semite, but on further reading I’m not so sure now. It really seems to depend on who’s opinion you take, so it appears the jury is still out on that one.
http://newpol.org/content/marxs-mixed-legacy-anti-semitism-and-socialism
http://www.engageonline.org.uk/journal/index.php?journal_id=10&article_id=33
One thing about Marx which is not disputed, is that he did not look kindly on the lowest in society, which he classified as the lumpenproletariat. Marx considered this widely desperate and non-homogenous ‘class’ as an impediment to revolution and the creation of a classless society. As such, they were a lost cause.
The ‘dangerous class’, the social scum, that passively rotting mass thrown off by the lowest layers of old society, may, here and there, be swept into the movement by a proletarian revolution; its conditions of life, however, prepare it far more for the part of a bribed tool of reactionary intrigue
https://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/works/1848/communist-manifesto/ch01.htm
This subsequently fed into the right-wing agenda of arseholes such as Charles Murray, Thatcher, Blair, Brown, Cameron, and apparently most of our political class.
Charles Murray and the Underclass: The Developing Debate
http://www.civitas.org.uk/pdf/cw33.pdf
Ian Brotherhood Yes 2 till 5 see u there if you go .
TJenny honey – looking forward to cuddles again xxx
P.S. IMO, the IMF forced Labour to adopt neo-liberalism in 1976, in return for the massive loan they provided. Thatcher and Major consolidated this, before Blair and Brown extended it. And now the Establishment are desperate to stop the Scots from undoing all their fine work.
Paula Rose – me too seems ages since the last get together, end of Nov? Hopefully lots of cuddles and sniggles too. 😉
Must admit I also find the fact that the postal vote is so out of proportion to the size of population fuck me polling stations are open from 8am till 10 pm who can’t vote during those parameters .
It is already discernible that the Westminster Establishment are determined to ‘win’ the Scottish region of the general Election and thereby prevent the SNP from holding the balance of power.
With Postal Voting widely understood to be very vulnerable to interference, it is quite remarkable tha the postal ballot papers are not kept separately and counted separately. By not making this simple change which would greatly increase the security of the postal vote, the Government and the Electoral Commission are virtually admitting to allowing postal voting fraud.
Another notable ommission in the Referendum was the exit polls. Exit polls offer a reliable check on the election result in each constituency, and their absence is deeply suspicious.
If exit polls are not allowed in Scotland in GE15, then I would bet my house on the opinion polls in Scotland being overturned.
Since the Referendum, the biggest dangers in Scottish Politics must be gullibility and naivity. It can safely be said that the history of the Union has depended on those two elements.
Gordoz 11.31
Murphy has been saying on twitter how easily the Scot Nats were outwitted (note the past tense),as if he already knows.
I have been jibed by a well connected Tory just before the referendum about ‘vote early and vote often’ ie.postal votes.
You have just added to my fears about this.
Remember who we are dealing with here,the most successful empire and colonizers the planet has known.Democracy doesn’t even come into with these creatures.
P.P.S. How could I forget John Major, the ‘grey’ Thatcherite who actually managed to achieve more neo-liberal policy goals than Thatcher did?
Yea this postal voting is very suspect
What can we do about it?
Think that’s what Scameron meant by the silent majority. It’s silent alright. It’s pre filled in postal votes. Bet you we actually won in September.
Kevin Evans
We as individuals can do eff all.
It would have to be Scottish politicians who flag it up and demand action.
We all know how that would go down with MSM.
I just watched Friday’s Newsnight. Is it true Scottish labours dept leaders own dad is an SNP member?
You are referring to Kezia Dugdale Kevin?
Yes very true Kevin and recently he publicly rebuked her on twitter for not getting her facts right.
https://archive.today/8eT0z
Re Postal Votes
It is possible Dugdale and Murphy’s comments are standard political bravado,so I don’t want to embarrass myself here,or unduly concern people.
I hope the custodians of democracy in Scotland will ensure a fair process.
Did someone say there are 800’000 postal voters?
Is that true? What the…
I smell a rat.
Postal votes for the elderly in care homes I can imagine what buzy little bees some people are. ‘Come on dear you just put your cross here’ and I’ll get you a nice cup of tea’
The Financial Times on 17 April have calculated that on current polls, there’s a higher chance of the Green Party having some role in government than the Conservatives; they report the Tories have a 5% chance of continuing into the next parliament. The “popular” press are angry on the behalf of the rich.
The right wing Press is dominated by tax evading, wealthy (foreign) owners just concerned with protecting their vast wealth, most of which they could never need. Biased. Thatcher saw to that. Without a balanced Press there is no democracy.
Sky News has now airbrush the SNP (who could hold the balance of power) out of the Polls.
The Tories are reverting to form. Selling off public housing, selling off bank shares cheaply. Cutting taxes and public services, sanctioning and starving the vulnerable.
Here come the girls
Aw Jim is worried about losing all those lovely expenses…
http://shaunynews.com/2015/04/18/murphy-consulted-lawyers-about-pay-if-he-loses-his-seat-in-general-election/
Louis B Argyll says:
19 April, 2015 at 2:42 am
Did someone say there are 800’000 postal voters?
Is that true? What the…
I smell a rat.
They really have to clean up this postal votes mess – more transparency (short of identifying voters!) is urgently required. The normal checks and balances do seem to be missing from the postal votes component. I’m not implying industrial scale rigging, but many people are, and without proper transparency and tracking, there will continue to be a deep mistrust of the authorities. Not good for democracy. About time this was sorted out.
What I would say is that the red and blue tories are very good at encouraging their older supporters to vote by post, which is just as well, since in Scotland they are becoming more and more dependent on the grey vote to keep them afloat. They have got the postal vote strategy down to a fine art – not necessarily cheating though, just clever. Perhaps we could learn a thing or two about reaching the older voters.
@ Izzie,
There is a code of conduct which says that you are not allowed to touch another persons ballot paper.
At our meeting the Counting officer was asked if it was ok to help, as one old man whose hand was so shaky he couldn’t put in a cross.
No problem with that said the counting officer.
Que smirks from the labour party side.
O/T
Remember the daily heil’s outrage on vile cybernats?
A comment in their latest anti NS article is okay by them.
Suzanne, Lancaster, United Kingdom, 5 hours ago
As we’ve stopped burning witches I may start a crowd funding website to get her assassinated.
Nana Smith says:
19 April, 2015 at 8:04 am
Aw Jim is worried about losing all those lovely expenses…
http://shaunynews.com/2015/04/18/murphy-consulted-lawyers-about-pay-if-he-loses-his-seat-in-general-election/
Must be a mistake, surely? After all, JM told us that he would not lose a single seat in Scotland. has his corage and confidence deserted him? Spread the word folks, far and wide – show the voters in ER that brave, confident Jim Murphy is already making plans for defeat.
@ Izzie.
And no doubt there will be “opportunistic sampling” at the postal vote opening again, so that they can work out how many postal votes they need to inject into the system to skew the result, or plan a last minute intervention to scare the weak and gullible members of our society back into the fold.
I didn’t know that we issue fatwa’s in the UK. I didn’t expect the Mail to support that particular institution, either. You live and learn..
We are just a few weeks away from the election, and it is really important to guard against any complacency. Labour is campaigning hard, but as they did in the referendum, are playing the ‘oh we haven’t got the resources card’.
Make no mistake, Labour has NOT given up and gone home. They are out scaring pensioners in the same way they did in the referendum. So, if you can help your local SNP group in any way, then make sure you do so, if you can.
With these frankly scary comments made by Labour regarding postal voting (a corrupt system if ever there was one), it is imperative that nobody assumes the polls will be correct.
This is the time for us, in whatever way we are able, to help ensure victory on 7th May. Do not assume that ‘others’ will be doing it for you.
Saw lots of Labour folks out and about over weekend. This is NOT a ‘done deal’.
Nicola on Andrew Marr Show at 9 am.
In response to Sunday Mail story,
Sheer hypocrisy from Labour on Zero Hours Contracts
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/if-zero-hours-contracts-are-so-bad-how-come-these-68-labour-mps-used-them/?CMP=spklr-Editorial-TWITTER-SunNation-20150401-SunNation-163416812
Labour MPs from Scotland that employ staff on zero hours contracts
Ann McKechin
Graeme Morrice
Gregg McClymont
Ian Murray
Katy Clark
Margaret Curran
Sheila Gilmore
and
Tom Greatrex
Labour vetoed plans to ban Zero Contract hours in Wales.
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/plaid-cymru-blasts-welsh-government-6863841
Tony Blair promised to end Zero Hour contacts in 1995 and after 13 years in government
http://www.libdems.org.uk/labour-20-year-old-promise-on-zero-hours-contracts
Has creepy old Murphy been egged yet? just saying:D
Re the Postal Votes.
If there is a substantial change away from current polling figures when Postal Votes are counted, then surely it will be transparent that there has been interference in the process.
The question is, what do we do about that if it comes to pass?
Russell Brand on the BBC debate 🙂
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wt2R3j0qGXE
Residents in care homes are allowed to vote (even those with Dementia) and do not have to sign their ballot paper.I have seen letters from the Electoral Authority confirming this!
@scotspine
There is nothing at all that we can do about it, so far as I can see. I agree that the high number of postal votes looks odd, on the surface. Does anyone have any figures for the number of postal votes in other parts of the UK? Perhaps it is just a trend across the whole country, for whatever reason: folk do seem to prefer to do lots of things from the comfort of their own homes which they used to get out and about to do.
Whatever the truth, unless we can do something about it there is absolutely nothing to be gained by worrying about it. We just have to carry on. It is not helpful to be seen as a conspiracy nut and it is not clear to me how one can avoid that charge without hard evidence of corruption.
Postal voting worries
Look out for George Anderson’s “Defending Democracy” which will be given a live streaming coverage from Dunoon’s Forward Shop shortly. Asks very worrying questions about the postal vote at the referendum and considers how the whole process could have been massively compromised.
Postal voting procedure is a recipe for fraud
OT But has anyone read the Andrew Gilligan bunkum in the DT?
Time to add him to the Revs comedy gold team along with Cochrane.
One might think that a man so badly stung by the
” establishment” might be inclined to a bit more honesty.
I wonder if any journalist feels utter shame in the drivel and downright ordure they write. Or is it merely a question of hanging on to an overpaid job for as long as possible?
I love it when they are corrected they assume the criticised victim and adopt the strident ” free speech is being compromised” drivel.
Of course there are wonderful exceptions who write with conviction and honesty – three cheers for Ian bell say I.
Ian Brotherhood ,I hope to make it to the Countinghouse shindig but as yet can’t commit.It would cheer my spirits to be with the like minded – almost like a homecoming!
@ CameronB Brodie
I haven’t come across any anti-Semitic comments in Marx but I have only read vol. 1 of of Capital and that was after watching David Harvey’s excellent lectures explaining it all. In fact I thought Marx was himself Jewish but I could be wrong.
http://davidharvey.org/reading-capital/
P.S There is a hysterically funny quiz on the DTs website to find the party best suited to your vote.
The last question asks you to delete the parties you would never consider giving your vote ,voiding any other answers.
Strangely , I appear to agree with the SNP ( having deleted Labour ,Liberal, UKIP, Conservatives and Uncle Tom Cobley and all!)
Fiona at 9.03
There already have been a considerable number of successful prosecutions in England on postal ballot fraud
@TJenny & Craig the Pict
Good catching up with you at the YeSNP event yesterday.
Derek Bateman has an interview with the event organiser Joyce Rahman on Newsnet
“One women’s journey from Tory voter to SNP organiser”
http://newsnet.scot/2015/04/one-womens-journey-from-tory-voter-to-snp-organiser/
And you can catch the event Livestream broadcast by Gerry here:
http://tinyurl.com/myhngdz
Derek Bateman was particularly scathing about the british printed press in his speech.
Watching that wee clip from Russel Brand got me thinking about the format of these sterile leaders debates.
How about a peoples debate?
7 random people on the podiums and a small audience made up of politicians asking what it is the people actually want.
With all this talk of postal votes – does anyone ken where the sampling of postal votes police investigation is in its deliberations?
Seems like an awfy long time to take for a simple matter of electoral fraud? Has the law been broken? Who broke it? Evidence? Press charges.
We are not talking about some extremely complex matter as far as I can tell.
How undemocratic can the UK become.
Lib dumbs are to offer Danny boy a peerage if he loses his seat in order to keep him in government.
He has after all been the tory’s arsehole for 5 yrs so I guess this is will be his payment.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon absolutely superb on Marr show. Didn’t put a step wrong, cool calm and confident.
Nicola on the Marr show.
Polished, steady, professional with no hesitation.
Awesome.
I know at the moment it’s necessary to play the Westminster game with the GE vote but the more I watch the “game” that is Westminster through the media, party mp’s, commentators and so on its clear to me we are completely different in mind and morals in Scotland than the mindset of Westminster politics and we need to get full independence to flourish as a nation and people.
Postal vote irregularities:
Although I do think the referendum vote was massively compromised, I believe it was lots of wee things rather than one big traceable scam.
The postal votes are a very obvious target. But I don’t think we should be focussed solely on that. The unionists need to be watched every step of the way this time, and need to be challenged on the spot every time something is suspicious. No use waiting till the results are in.
As the polis would say “Semper Vigilo”.
Cameron; “these people”. That’s us he is referring to guys.
OT but –
Jim Murphy is actually proud of this.
He is heckled by a member of the public who shouts “spell socialist” before Murphy Responds “S.O.C.I.A.L.I.S.M.
https://twitter.com/JimForScotland/status/589540825668853760
I knew SLAB revisionism was shameless but to change the heckle from “Spell socialist” to “you couldn’t spell socialism!” is classic Murphy, trying to make his stupid response sound ‘clever’, to those not paying attention.
Murphy: the man who put the “M” in socialist.
Nicola did well on Marr.
She ended by repeating that she will never deal with Cameron under any circumstances. Therein lies the hatred from the right wing Tory press. As the polls still show Lab & Con neck and neck, Cameron can only stay PM if there is a last minute surge where by he has an absolute majority, or one with LibDem support.
Looks unlikely. The bookies now say Milliband most likely to be PM.
Cameron really now has very little chance of staying PM.
As an aside I did note Marr slipping in the word ‘subsidy’ in relation to Barnett. Showing his true colours, as always.
Cameron attacking Scotland, calling us “these people”
Marr actually holding him to account, Cameron having a wobbly.
Heard a young woman from the Highlands say, on R4, say that she would vote Liberal because she wanted fairness in politics and that she thought education should be available to all and free. Yes she knew the Libs. had brought in tuition fees and broke their promise but she felt sorry for them because they had been forced into it. This woman was studying politics at Uni in the Highlands.
I…I… I…. Nope, don’t have the words.
wp 9.41
Aye.Half the Scottish people.In fact,the more I hear from Cameron the more I think his contempt extends to all the Scottish people.
@izzie says: 19 April, 2015 at 6:35 am:
“Postal votes for the elderly in care homes I can imagine what buzy little bees some people are. “
You can stop imagining, Izzie. I’ll confirm it for you.
For decades my late wife and I spent much of our spare time visiting homes, hospices and hospitals with our wee dogs that we had trained as befrienders, (Therapets). Obviously this predates referenda and the present popularity of the SNP.
I can confirm that, in particular, Labour activists, including actual councillors, MSPs and MEPs were being, “very helpful”, at signing up inmates for postal votes. In some instances they carried application forms and actually filled them in on behalf of the inmates.
They were also observed later filling in the actual voting papers and taking them away to post them. Now not only did we see many of those inmates were illiterate, had poor eyesight or were just confused and so couldn’t tell if their choice, or the helpers choice, was marked on the paper. The taking away of sealed envelopes to post also made it easy to, “post”, known opposition votes in the trash can. Remember too, that this was before it was made much easier to qualify for a postal vote.
Vote rigging now in play ? Postal votes ?
Its not even funny now !
Cameron states when not even asked – we haven’t had the postal votes counted yet.
They will use this to defeat democracy folks and they are not even hiding it.
Cameron revisits Indyref again and again on Marr show today total disgrace – Breaking up Britain ???
Marr scores a few hits thought to his credit.
This is the nasty stuff kicking in folks the Tories wiill steal this by any means and save Labour
Press – Watch the postal votes; thats where this is going to be lost.
Scotspine I’m with you on that point !
Unless we can see the sinister effect the postal vote scam will have as a % of the total Scottish result – no one will believe this is happening.
If you can go back and watch the Marr show interview !!!!
We’re a postal vote house and none of us wants to risk using them now, not after the referendum.
So we go back up the road and go to the polling station and it doesn’t get much worse in a democracy when you know you cant trust your own country’s Electoral Commission organisers.
Why did the Electoral Register wait until 19th Sept 2014 to completely wipe the electoral register and start a new one all over again?
Why did we only find out that after 35 years on the electoral register, we had been removed from the register and had to register without being told to?
Stuff like that teamGB.
Rev :
This was really worth a watch for some material.
Sky news @12.43am Bonnie Greer trying to raise issue of ‘Scotiaphobia’ – they just didn’t want to know !!!
It was good stuff. She kept hammering away.
On the subject of postal votes and polls.
Someone on an earlier thread suggested that the Rev should commission a poll with some of the funds raised last month for WOS. If he decided to do this then perhaps it might be an idea to include a question asking if the person is going to vote in person or use a postal vote.
This would give an indication of the likely percentage of postal votes AND an indication of any differences in voting intentions between the two groups.
Of course it would depend on the size of the overall sample but if postal votes are likely to make up about 25% of the votes cast then this should be reflected in the poll.
I do not think any of the polling organisations include a question about postal voting in their questionnaires.
Just a thought.
Mealer says:
“I think his contempt extends to all the Scottish people.”
Indeed Mealer, he sees half of us as a threat to “his country” and the other half as lickspittles who can be bought and bribed.
Unfair: he quite likes the Duke of Buccleugh
I think its essential we have some polling done of postal voters in Scotland – its the only undecided group that seems to matter anyway now.
If anyone has Ashcrofts number 🙂
The most successful conspiracy is for our opponents to suggest that anyone of us who thinks there are conspiracies going on against the independence movement is a daft “conspiracy theorist” which causes them to shut up about their suspicions.
Anybody who thinks the conspiracies aren’t real and continuous is due an honours degree in naivety
Well Cameron just added a few votes to the SNP with that rant this morning. He doesn’t care though as his target is Labour seats in middle England.
I thought the Fox Hunting question(My favourite sport) really finished off the interview. The angry toff was starting to peek through the veneer a little more than he would have liked.
heedtracker@9:57 quotes perfectly in my opinion why we need independence. How can we be part of a system we now don’t trust.
Our mistrust is the establishments corrupt system of voting. But on a bigger scale how often do you hear comments by solid no voters/unionist saying “all politicians are liars and all as bad as each other” that statement in itself says we need our own country where politicians are held accountable completely on there representation of there constituents and how they work at reap representing us.
@YesmeansYes.
To be fair to dim Jim, he only spent 9 years at uni, give him a chance.
Did you see the aptly named university avenue sign in the background above his head?
Want sum fun go to UsvsTh3m and bash the Tories for a change,though Mundane {Mundel} is not mentioned.
@Luigi says: 19 April, 2015 at 8:11 am:
” … What I would say is that the red and blue tories are very good at encouraging their older supporters to vote by post, which is just as well, since in Scotland they are becoming more and more dependent on the grey vote to keep them afloat.
May I suggest an alternative conclusion drawn from the very same evidence you quote, Luigi?
You seem rather ill disposed against older people in several of your WoS posts and you assume this indicates that older folks are the bad guys in your opinion.
Yesterday another one of survey surveys showed a repeated true fact. Younger people are far less likely to use their votes that older people.
From that evidence the conclusion would seem to indicate the vote was lost because of the younger voters NOT voting for independence.
Unlike you, Luigi, I don’t blame either the older or younger voters. This for the very good reason that in a proper democracy the right to abstain is every bit as valid as casting a vote for a candidate.
The vote was lost because not enough voters voted for it, conversely it was won because more voted against it.
Simples!
@Dorothy Devine (9.07) –
😉
Good stuff. I’ll tell BDTT via O/T – he’s been looking after the list. If you let him know what name you want on your customised badge he’ll ensure it’s sorted.
Hoots!
40 mins into A Marr show , DC clearly states
” Wait , there are 7m people who will be voting this week , postal votes will be hitting people’s door mats”
Up until now I have been sceptical of PV interference etc and that the Establishment , who may have been involved in Ref for the benefit of the establishment .
I used to think they would not interfere With the GE as they would have to decide on helping either Lab or Cons .
The penny has only dropped with me they will do anything to keep the status quo .
Cameron was vile today , Marr was better but still too soft on Cameron .
They are dropping their guard and starting to reveal their true colours ! Not pretty .
Dave maewan – they have spent years framing the word “conspiracy” as a negative.
The more you look in detail at the construction of this “system” nothing is accidental concerning the establishment. It’s a well oiled machine spent years creating gear at keeping the top at the top. This is what scares them and by them I mean the people pulling the strings in the system that we do not get to vote for. Newspaper magnets, oil companies, military contractors owned by companies like Halliburton. Profit driven people who’s motives are driven by greed, they cling onto power solely to brag between themselves. The ones at the top of the pyramid.
Given that there is a proven track record of postal vote fraud, postal votes should only be issued for medical reasons, if not, then clearly the Establishment is comfortable with election rigging.
Ed Balls on Murnaghan, stating Labour will not do any kind of deal with a party that wants to break up the United Kingdom.
Has he never heard of the SDLP, Labours sister party in Northern Ireland who also want to break up the United Kingdom?
Also but not only!
Are May 7 election postal votes going to be opened by polling station workers that they’re receive/sent back as they arrive next week or “sampled” was the name the EC gave this highly suspect practice, during and throughout 2014 referendum postal polling?
I know people say shut up, opening postal votes and checking and recording postal votes was all above board and dandy but actually, its a load of shite.
Noone has yet to provide a legitimate reason why 18 Sept referendum postal votes were opened as they were returned or why reps from any side were able to see the vote on the ballot box and record the polling pattern.
If like during the 3 week run up to 18th Sept, each side can see how their electioneering is going by postal vote, they can then change what they are offering the electorate, much like say THE VOW suddenly exploded into the referendum campaign via likes of a corrupt BBC and vote NO or else Daily Record. Daily Record just got awarded best whatever in Scotland, for being even handed and balanced reporters especially during the referendum.
In other words, they are taking the piss out of teamGB democracy on a monumental scale now.
7 million postal votes UK wide.
Hmmmm – if 60% of the UK votes that’s 60% of 60 million people so that’s 36 million votes so 20%ish or 1 in 5 votes are open to corruption.
That’s not good
@ Kevin Evans.
If there are 7 million postal votes then 800,000 in Scotland is more than 11% of the total. I wonder if that is typical for reasons of geography or health or something? Does anyone know?
@fiona
They do reason the Barnett consequential funding is due to Scotland’s geographic locations so that would justify the extra postal voting in Scotland.
What really is great is theses discussions are due to the scots waking up.
@ Kevin Evans
They don’t so far as I know. Barnett is not “needs” based at all
alexicon says:
19 April, 2015 at 10:19 am
Did you see the aptly named university avenue sign in the background above his head?
I am sure it reads “Univermity”
Brown about to intervene again. So if the polls turn out to be “wrong” on the day and Labour do well, expect Brown to be given the credit for the massive last minute swing. Just as in the referendum.
@fiona
They were continually justifying the extra Barnett money was due to getting services to difficult areas because of rural and hard to reach places and the size of Scotland compared to population spread across the land.
Dunno if it’s true or not but that’s how they framed it during the referendum.
Thats Dugdale and now Cameron suggesting it will all be alright after the ‘postal votes’ are in.
Labour & Tory both happy with the current system.
SNP don’t mention this at all.
When will FM say ‘Lets just wait til the postal votes are in’
Something its brewing with the establishment – a calmness that all will be well. Scares the shit out of me.
Rev – is this something for a specific poll focus ?
(Lets get it out there to Joe Public now)
@gerry parker says: 19 April, 2015 at 8:15 am:
“There is a code of conduct which says that you are not allowed to touch another persons ballot paper …
… Que smirks from the labour party side
The returning officer was correct but not, it seems, as the smirking Labourites seemed to think.
There are several legal ways to cast a vote other than the voter placing a cross themselves at the polling booth.
One is the most obvious postal vote. Another is delegating a named person to vote on your behalf, (Proxy Vote).
But as there are no special provisions made at most polling stations for such as blind or other disablements, these persons may ask for assistance.
This, though, should be either the disabled person’s own chosen proxy or the returning officer. Not the smirky Labourites standing by.
BTW: it is illegal for any party, or organization, to supply, even as little as a cup of tea and a biscuit, for those they assist in getting to the poll.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/home-news/elections-watchdog-backtracks-over-new-postal-vote-secrecy-rule.116122711
Above is a link to an article which appeared in the Herald earlier this year.
It is about the changes made to regulations governing postal voting in the wake of the referendum – and how they were watered down.
Apologies for not doing the archive- thingy.
Fiona. 10.38
Scotland does have a slightly older demographic, I believe,so that may be a factor in higher postal votes here.
To Robert P I’m not having a go at anyone on account of age when I say that.
@ Kevin Evans
Not how I framed it, and not how it works, Kevin Evans. Where have you heard this? I did not hear it at all from the independence side during the referendum
There have been arguments that it should be needs led, but that is not the same thing.
Barnett is a formula which depends on a base line per capita spending sum: but the formula itself does not produce that base line. What it does do is pass on changes to that base line made in england, to the other countries. It is calculated on the extent to which devolved functions directly map on to the functions of each relevant department in england. So if the functions of a department are wholly devolved then the block grant changes by exactly the same amount per head (actually population share) as that department’s budget changes in england. If only part of the functions of that department are devolved then only part of the changes are applied to the block grant: and that is done through a pre-determined “comparability” factor. So if, say, 25% of the department’s functions are deemed to be devolved then the budget change to the block grant will be 25% of the total change.
One can argue that the base line figure is wrong, as unionists often do. One can argue that the comparability factor is wrong, for determining that is not a straightforward matter. But you cannot argue it is needs led, for it is a straightforward matter of population share regardless of geography etc. One can argue against the fact that the treasury is completely free to include or exclude spending from a departmental budget as it suits them (thus enabling them to deny barnett consequentials from spending which would otherwise attract those).
But I see no case at all to pretend that the formula itself has any element of “needs base”.
Re Possible Fraud .
If it comes to pass that Postal votes significantly change things AGAIN in favour of the Establishment. Especially after rock solid polls for the last few Months and if irregularities are discovered, I would argue that the Union is over.
@Fiona says: 19 April, 2015 at 8:20 am:
“I didn’t know that we issue fatwa’s in the UK. I didn’t expect the Mail to support that particular institution, either. You live and learn”.
In fact that woman has very much broken the law as that is decidedly incitement to commit murder. What is more the newspaper, (for want of a better description), is also committing an illegal act by propagating it.
Report it to the police. Who, BTW, must legally investigate it. You just need to look at the cases of someone joking about having a bomb on an aircraft and what happens to them.
@ dakk.
Not really true, so far as I can discover
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/dcp171776_258607.pdf
median age in 2010 for the 4 countries was
NI: 36.9 years
England:39.5 years
Scotland: 41 years
Wales: 41.5 years
The differences are negligible, especially since life expectancy in Scotland is lower
Sorry completely o/t but Kevin (Evans), whilst engrossed reading the posts on here the morning, I found your ‘newspaper magnets’ hilarious, inserted as it was in your quite serious post at 10.26am.
Chust the very thought of all those magnets attracting all their power!
I know you meant magnates, but it did make for cheery reading within a serious subject. 🙂
I see others are suffering from deja-vu too.
Labour rock bottom in polls.
Suddenly 1/3 of Scottish voters have yet to make up thier minds.
The clunking fist comes out to roar for labout & the british union.
The silent majority will suddenly find their voice.
8th May Jim Murphy, Douglas Alexander, Margaret Curran, Ian Davidson and a.n.other tory all manage to hang on to their seats with tiny majority. The postal vote percentagees are what make the difference.
Me? Cynical?
I hope I’m wrong.
Money paid to Scotland through the Barnett formula does NOT take account of all Government expenditure.
The Barnett figure does of course take account of Scotland’s geography in relation to providing funding for the provision of all services etc.
“Indentified public expenditure” as it was called for years was a quite selective use of figures which conveniently appear to give higher per capita spending Scotland. You could produce a similar distortion by working out figures for the West Country for instance
The other significant parts of spending (to which Scotland contributes its full taxation share) are “procurement” and “national expenditure” and this makes up to one third of every pound that the Government spends.
We get much less than our share of procurement expenditure (in the huge defence budget in particular where we get considerably less than half our population share) and “national expenditure” is massively skewed to London and the South East . But we pay for our share of it and get less back than we pay.
We are for instance paying our share of the multi billion renewal of the London Underground system and will pay to the £36 billion High Speed rail link to the north (Leeds) if it happens before the UK economy collapses. One thinks of Channel Tunnels and Olympic Games and huge motorways and much much more in the south which are described as “national expenditure”.
So the much quoted Barnett Formula figure is a distortion of the reality and only describes a proportion of Government expenditure.
The biggest per capita recipient of the benefit of the pound the government spends is without doubt the population of south east of England and London.
Fiona. 11.14
Sounds like maybe just another unionist myth then to make us feel dependent and decrepit,although we could still have an older demographic of people of actual voting age I suppose.
Either way I doubt it would be enough to make up the higher % of PV in Scotland.
Its possibly more likely to be SLabour’s greater ‘use’ of PV here.
Haven’t most of the convictions on PV fraud involved Labour?I remember the Aston ‘shame a Banana Republic’ case some years ago.
@dakk
It is a myth. What is reported, usually, is not the current position: it is yet another “forecast”.
But my objection is not that the forecast is wrong: it may be but I hope not, because I would like to think that health and life expectancy in Scotland will improve
My objection is that the “demographic time bomb” narrative is explicitly deployed to further justify austerity. And it is based on a very basic arithmetical mistake.
The story depends on looking at the age demographic in isolation. That is plainly absurd. What they do is assume that everybody of working age is actually working: then compare that figure with the percentage of people of pensionable age and conclude we cannot afford pensions. Obviously those who are unemployed are on the wrong side of a very basic equation. What matters is not how many people are of working age: but how many are actually working to support all of those who are not: the unemployed are not working and so are as “dependent” as pensioners.
Plutocrats consider 5.6% unemployment to be low, and describe it as a “miracle”. Do not be fooled into thinking they want full employment: they quite explicitly do not. They believe in NAIRU, and that is clear from the OBR papers and also from Mr Carney’s intention to raise interest rates once unemployment falls below 7%: an intention he has deferred because of the election, IMO, but still quite central to the neoliberal approach. what it means is that they consider that unemployment below 7% (or some other shifting and unspecified figure) to be damaging for the economy.
Fall in productivity allows them to ostensibly lower that figure for electoral purposes: but productivity is also central to how many dependent people we can afford to support.
Notice, too, that NI median age is lower than the rest: and that is because of greater fertility: but children are also dependents, as are their mothers if not working because of child care responsibilities: or using state provided child care to enable them to work.
This stuff is never quite so straightforward as it appears. They have a long term plan right enough: and they promote it through simplistic stories of this kind, which are much like proverbs in that they have superficial plausibility: till you read the equally plausible proverb stating the opposite
@Kevin Evans says: 19 April, 2015 at 10:36 am:
“They do reason the Barnett consequential funding is due to Scotland’s geographic locations so that would justify the extra postal voting in Scotland.”
First up, Kevin, whau are, “They”?
Secondly, “They”, obviously don’t know what the Barnett Formula is or does. It has absolutely nothing to do with anything other than the funding for the devolved functions transferred to the three non-English countries who get funded by block Grant.
There is no such item recorded as English funding because the English funding is recorded as United Kingdom funding and comes via the United Kingdom Ministries.
Thus, when a function is devolved from those United Kingdom ministries to the devolved countries parliaments, Barnett’s Formula is invoked to calculate the per capita funding that England gets and that per capita value is the per capita sum added to the devolved parliament’s Block Grant.
It is thus clearly apparent that the United Kingdom, (English), per capita funding must be reduced in the relevant UK ministry and the per capita sum increased in the devolved country’s Block Grant.
Which truth explains why the English share of the UK ministries per capita funding is reduced and why the devolved countries all have a different per capita funding. It is because England has no devolved functions and each devolved administration has a different per capita funding.
Simply put the per capita funding is entirely dependant upon the number of, and the comparative funding value of the particular function England gets from the United Kingdom’s Ministries. It should in fact always be a different value for each of the four United Kingdom Countries.
All of which utterly idiotic complications could have been avoided by NOT making Westminster the De facto Parliament of England and thus having all four UK countries getting the same devolved functions and the same per capita based block grant.
@dakk says: 19 April, 2015 at 11:02 am:
“To Robert P I’m not having a go at anyone on account of age when I say that.”
Perhaps so but you do attribute the older voters with swinging the result. I’m not blaming the younger voters either as I already stated.
What I’m pointing out is that the actual voting pattern cannot be viewed by looking at one faction, or factor, in isolation but can by looking at the bigger picture and the stone cold facts are that a greater proportion of older people actually vote while a larger proportion of younger voters do not vote.
BTW: the quoted conclusions based upon the figures look rather suspect to me. After all, if the stats indicate Scots die younger, the logical deduction is we should end with fewer older folks in relation to the rest of the UK where older folks live longer. Try and explain that one away, Dakk?
Perhaps if I also note we may be losing younger voters due to other than death it may ring a few bells? Emigration for work rings louder to my ears.
Just another Establishment propaganda exercise perhaps but one that would correct itself if Scotland were in charge of her own future economic history.
There seems to be a great many myths floating around that originate in the Establishment but are not identified and thus get further propagated by our own activists. The above is just one of the many. Barnett’s Formula and how the UK is funded another. As is the actual way we were sucked into the Union and the previous history that led to it. One quite plain fact is that Proud Scots Buts have been our worst enemies since pre-recorded history.
The thing about postal voting is that you don’t have to be actually resident in a given constituency to vote there. If you qualify there’s no law against registering in more than one place so its reasonable to assume that there’s nothing to prevent you from applying for more than one postal vote. The only law is that you can’t cast more than one vote in any particular level of election on the same day. So in theory given current polling you could decide where to vote in order to swing a particular vote.
The relevance to the indy ref was trying to square the polling blasted at us which seemed to bear no relation to the actual result. There were polls closer to the actual result that actually gelled. However assuming that those later polls were true then the only explanation might be that as well as glomming votes from retirement homes and other places where those voting were not available to answer a phone is that as those polls were only internal to Scotland then at least some of the postal votes came from outside Scotland.
If there is an organised effort to, legally, target postal votes to marginals then the question is just how prevalent it might be. Obviously this time is far more complicated as last year you simply had to have lived in Scotland in the last fifteen years. This time you’d need to choose carefully. Keeping an eye on the level of postal votes and seeing if there were enough to make a difference might be a worthwhile exercise. I wonder if a FOI request for the number of postal votes from permanent residents external to either Scotland or the UK last year is worth doing.
As to the claims that some on the No side knew how the postal votes were going that illustrates how vital having your own invigilators at those openings is. The actual procedure is illustrated in the document here http://www.electionsscotland.info/emb/downloads/file/173/postal_vote_opening_procedure
Note that you are specifically not allowed to show anyone what’s marked. You might conceivably catch a glimpse and keep a tally in your head. You might also be able to tell if the paper is transparent enough or the pen used to mark has indented enough to be seen.
Capella
From the first of my links above.
KESSLER NOTES THAT MARX’S FATHER, Heinrich, converted from Judaism to Protestantism just after Karl’s birth, and he had Karl baptized in 1824. (There is no mention of Karl’s mother.) We don’t know what it meant to little Karl to be baptized at six-years-old, but Kessler tells us that “[g]rowing up in a milieu of recent converts, Marx’s formative years were barren of any Jewish acculturation and were directly exposed to anti-Semitic undercurrents then typical of Central European Christianity (p.13).” Kessler notes that Marx’s published writing about the Jews was contradictory, but his private correspondence is gratuitously hostile. In published works he used Jews as metaphors (e.g. for money, for exchange- value in Das Kapital), but he also occasionally defended them.
My second link gives an alternative interpretation.
Were are all the PPE graduates when you need them? 🙂
Fiona. 12.05
Thanks for that excellent detailed reply.
I always try to look beyond the superficial message and info that is disseminated by the govnmt and media,but they know most people,myself included, dont have the time and/or inclination to second guess them.
That’s how they drive the narrative.
@ dakk
It is how they drive the narrative and they cooperate in doing so. That is why it is so important to have boards like this, where we can each share what we have managed to glean on various issues. We all have different interests and we all have experience to impart.
The media and the politicians make the water we swim in: it is for us fish to discover that water by helping each other.
Regardless of right/left wing I thought the numbers would have gone along with the polling.
This being the case Lab, Tory and UKIP were slightly under represented and LibDems over represented.
Also, they should drop the ‘undecideds’. At this type of event you must be quite politically aware to ask for tickets. It’s unlikely that they are undecided.
That aside, Nigel, like a bad workman, blames his tools. He’s bitter that not everyone agrees with him.
I can understand him though. Unusually, in this election, television pundits are, at least, giving the appearance of listening to us. Previously this hasn’t happened and UKIP have been given a free run on QT and the like.
Robert Peffers says:
19 April, 2015 at 10:22 am
You seem rather ill disposed against older people in several of your WoS posts and you assume this indicates that older folks are the bad guys in your opinion.
Yesterday another one of survey surveys showed a repeated true fact. Younger people are far less likely to use their votes that older people.
From that evidence the conclusion would seem to indicate the vote was lost because of the younger voters NOT voting for independence.
Unlike you, Luigi, I don’t blame either the older or younger voters. This for the very good reason that in a proper democracy the right to abstain is every bit as valid as casting a vote for a candidate.
The vote was lost because not enough voters voted for it, conversely it was won because more voted against it.
Simples!
I disagree Robert.
First, I am not blaming older people for anything. There is evidence that the 65+ age group voted NO overwhelmingly, and that this was crucial (all other age groups were slightly in favour of independence. There is also anecdotal evidence that they are more vulnerable to scare stories about pensions etc and that Labour in particular are targeting those groups and encouraging postal voting.
Where is your evidence that I have labelled older people as the “bad guys” ?????? As I have said before, I admire those older voters who supported independence more than any others for resisting the scare stories and going against the flow. But the fact remains that older people voted No in large numbers, and usually vote Labour in large numbers also. No blame attached, but it is a fact we cannot escape from.
Can’t the National put that pretty coloured Political Compass graph on the Front page?
I’m sure the few Labour supporters left would soon jump ship to SNP after seeing it. Just because it’s got cheery colours and it would raise their mood, of course!
UKIP wouldn’t even be at the races if the BBC hadn’t allowed Farage utterly disproportionate airtime over the past four years. Question Time practically became his chat show, complete with comedy monologue and sycophantic sidekicks who dared not question his bigotry.
It took Nicola, Leanne and Natalie to call him out on live TV over the last two debates – and the reaction has been telling: dummy oot the pram.