Theresa’s Big Plan
Sane people across the nation have watched in growing disbelief for the last two years as the UK government’s catastroshambles over Brexit has unfolded. In the latest jaw-dropping developments, David Davis has revealed that he’s only just now thinking of STARTING negotiating a trade deal with the EU – 22 months after the referendum and with absolutely no idea of how to solve the Irish Question on which it all depends.
Meanwhile, Faisal Islam of Sky News has made the pertinent point that the one “land-based” border between the UK and mainland Europe, the Channel Tunnel, has no infrastructure in place for serving as a checkpoint because it was fundamentally never designed or envisaged for a Europe without the UK, and the UK government has done absolutely nothing in the last two years to prepare for that changing.
And the more ludicrously chaotically and ineptly the whole farce plays out, the more it’s only possible to come to one rational conclusion about it: that the Prime Minister’s grand plan for enacting Brexit is to fail.
It’s easy to overlook that May was a Remainer. An analogous situation would be to imagine that Scotland had voted very narrowly Yes to independence in 2014 and then immediately elected a Scottish Labour government to implement it. How committed do you imagine that government would be to securing the will of the people?
So why would Theresa May be any different? Deep down she doesn’t want to leave the EU, but she has no Parliamentary escape route open – Labour are a complete trainwreck with no idea what their position is and couldn’t be relied on in any vote. If it came to any sort of actual decision they’d probably abstain again.
So all she can really do is make such an absolutely ham-fisted dog’s breakfast of it that come March 2019 she can say “Look, we tried but this simply can’t be done – in reality there is no way to leave the EU”.
And so far, it’s going well:
And England would rage hard, but what could it actually do? UKIP effectively no longer exists as a political party. Labour, as noted, is a nest of ferrets that doesn’t know what it stands for on the subject and is in any event still far too busy tearing itself to pieces in purity wars over anti-Semitism and gendered shortlists and God only knows what else. And the Lib Dems are no threat because people aren’t going to express their fury over a failed Brexit by voting for a MORE pro-EU party.
In the past year, as the head of the most demonstrably, spectactularly incompetent UK government in all of history, May has seen her personal ratings as “best option for PM” versus Jeremy Corbyn INCREASE significantly. From behind or level pegging a year ago, she now leads by between 10 and 14 points in recent polling.
Even if May herself fell on her sword – and in the current political climate of brazening things out, that’s far from a certainty – the Tories have overturned Labour’s slim lead of most of 2017 to now be consistently a few points ahead. Were they to replace May with a hard-Brexiter like Jacob Rees-Mogg, blaming the opposition and the EU for the failure and vowing (emptily and cynically) to pursue the goal with renewed vigour, they could probably count on victory.
Failing to deliver Brexit at all increasingly looks like the least bad of a set of terrible options for Theresa May. And for those who never wanted out of the EU in the first place, that sounds like a good result. But achieving it by such a route would be a bit like avoiding having a runaway explosives truck crash into a chemical-weapons factory by diverting it into a primary school.
Even the relatively-orderly version (the so-called Brexit In Name Only) would be an incredible worst-of-all-worlds mess which would ultimately only postpone the day of reckoning, while simply continuing the apparent current strategy of letting the entire process blunder onto the rocks and run out of time would be even worse, miring the economy in impossible uncertainty for years and years.
Lots to look forward to, then. No pressure.
UKIP may well rise from the ashes!
Put aside British nationalism for a second and realize the continuing support in the polls for May is pure English nationalism.
It’s getting serious now.
Great work again but I like the last quote from Labour North best.
It needs said again & again (the numpties)
Despite blow after blow she is still in control but who in their right mind would want the job. That’s a really pathetic stance, maybe she’s waiting for some tory perv to do a bit of up skirting.
Bath based Cybernat encouraging Primary Schools Slaughter. His suggested method, is mad runaway train loaded with explosives.
Welcome to Daily Mail world…LOL
The other possibility is that they intend for a chaotic exit to take place, for which they will blame the EU.
An orderly exit with the UK remaining in the EEA but losing its voting and negotiating rights would mean the London regime losing the last vestiges of its credibility. Scottish independence would be a walkover. There would be no reason at all to remain a part of the UK that took this kind of reckless, humiliating gamble.
A chaotic exit with no transition agreement on the other hand would allow for a degree of emergency rule and allow the London regime to harness the inevitable resurgence of English nationalism.
Something ugly is bound to happen either way.
Love the analysis.
It would be highly ironic if the UK stayed in the EU despite voting Leave. And if one referendum result can be ignored, well…?
So 43 per cent think T.May is the right person for the job so that means 57per cent don’t think so ???
It cant be Jacob the Catholic.
Every cloud and all that
Just for a sense of how bad it can get?
The contraction of the UK economy in Q4 of 2008 was 2%. So, just to be clear. It’s taken a central government, in full possession of all economic levers, ten years NOT to have ditched austerity ideology. A period which has seen unprecedented wage stagnation, draconian changes and swingeing cuts to the UK’s benefits system, massive growth of food bank culture and cuts to services reported across the board.
Given both HMG and Scotgov’s impact assessments consider a 2-2.5% contraction is currently the best case (soft Brexit) scenario for Scotland. Also taking into account the all too evident hardships which the recession of 2008 has delivered over the past ten years. Just what do you reckon the effect will be of a 9% contraction of Scotland’s economy in event of the worst case scenario?
Are you yes yet?
It’s unlikely the Tories would abandon Brexit. Like MacBeth, it would be harder to turn back now than to go on with it.
They are no longer a political party in Scotland. With enforced Brexit they have abdicated their traditional pro-business stance. They appeal to shadowy anti-democratic groupings at opposite ends of the socioeconomic spectrum. They don’t want Scotland to have even the powers of Lincolnshire County Council. They want us to have less.
In Scotland the Tory Party is no longer an electoral choice but a threat. With their fool’s deal on devolution. A Welsh version of which the fool Carwyn Jones accepted.
I’ve always said May didn’t want this to work out. I wondered about the EU withdrawal bill and the ”Consent’ clause and if that was put in knowing Scot Gov would not sign it, and then they could blame the SNP.
Is she standing like that because her asbestos pants are chafing?
Do you think Ruth Davidson will turn up at FMQ feeling isolated or will she have a bout of morning sickness?
So the way out will be to make sure that UK law does not diverge from the EU by using the “Henry VIII” powers to put new regulation in place without commons scrutiny. The power grab is to make it look like the UK intend to diverge because they know Holyrood wouldn’t.
Brett in name only same as before but with no say in the matter – well done.
I stil think it feels more likely that the Prime Minister is incompetently trying to manage a grand plan for a successful Brexit than she is competently managing a grand plan for a failed Brexit.
Either way though, can anyone tell the difference?
The Tories are just plain awful. May is a disgrace. How can people vote for them. Corbyn should step aside.so people in the rest of the UK will vote Labour. Scotland needs to get rid of Labour. Take the fight to the Tories. The SNP will win. The only one’s standing against the Tories in Westminster is the SNP.
May is just a plain liar. A shouty, vicious mess.
‘Borderland growth deal champion’. What on earth are they on about. The poseur women placed there for the cameras. PR stunt.
I noticed recently clyde shipyard workers being accused of shoddy workmanship and even sabotage of royal navy ships. I guess this is a prelude to more orders going g abroad. Yes all brought to you by Scottish Labour supporting the union
We need away from London and soon
“UKIP may well rise from the ashes!”
From its current state? LOL.
If this does turn out to be the case, then we should prepare now to push the narrative that somehow Scotland is to blame for this.
That English rage could suit us well in hoping they will push us out or vote for their own independence.
I remember an episode of Blackadder where two ham actors were trying to teach the Prince George how to power stand on stage. It is exactly what Mrs May is doing.
Next she has to shout “woooeee”.(woe) Quite appropriate.
What next? No Brexit, then no future Tory Government. England will abandon them, They must leave or be destroyed for decades. Regardless of National interest ,I think they will leave ,deal or no Deal.
I’m not at all sure that May is hoping for a Brexit failure in order to stay in EU. That may indeed be why she put incompetents like Fox and Davis way out of their depth into leading Brexit posts, but more likely an interpretation is that she had nobody less mental than that pair.
I don’t see May as having the skills necessary to act like Mrs Machiavelli or even Mrs Mopp. Anyone who stands legs apart like she’s just filled her pants and thinks that suggests “strong and stable” has been listening to too many dodgy PR guys with man-buns.
…and in Scotland
People still vote Tory, LibDem and Labour?
Was Mrs May a firm remainer?
No, she went missing during the last month of the referendum.
This would have been on the advise of advisors seeing the polls and potential options for her position regards PM role if the vote went brexit.
Ultimately Mrs May will put her own position above that of the uk in short and long term. She is devoid of a moral compass or any form of compassion whatsoever.
Mrs May is like Lady MacBeth without a hubby!
Truth @ 12.36
Oh I don’t know so much
Why should we take the blame for something we don’t control.
Its their mess.
But more than that…
We don’t know and cannot direct the form of “blame” that would result.
What if the call was to try to wreck our Exit?
Truth says:
2 May, 2018 at 12:36 pm
If this does turn out to be the case, then we should prepare now to push the narrative that somehow Scotland is to blame for this.
That English rage could suit us well in hoping they will push us out or vote for their own independence.
Sorry Truth, but I think it would be a lot worse than that.
The British establishment (after Scottish independence)would use it as an excuse to punish Scotland (physically and/or financialy) if only to appease the right wing nutters in England.
This is why, with all it’s faults, I believe an independent Scotland would be better in the EU for the forseable future. for all it’s faults, it does provide some measure of economic protection.
If there’s no actual Brexit then surely it follows that there is no actual need for a WM power grab of devolved powers?
Or are they planning Brexit failure but first ensuring the devolved legislatures sign up to the power grab so that when Brexit doesn’t happen and we demand the powers back they then tell us, “Sorry – possession is nine tenths of the law. We’re keeping them.”
Personally I still think they are wanting Brexit. In what final shape that takes is anyone’s guess. I think the ‘Elite’ want it because it suits them; Trump NHS deal, fracking licenses; no workers’ rights – they’ll make an absolute killing out of Brexit. The rest of us? Fecked!
I am shocked by how enured we have become to the Tory Brexit Ultrashambles. The public are treated with utter contempt and in return demand servile acquiescence.
In dragging the only two parties in the UK which could lead a government along to its tune, UKIP has served its purpose. Why bother, when UK Prime Ministers and “opposition” leaders are singing to its tune anyway?
There’s a much darker, more terrible possibility: that making a chaotic mess was the plan all along. By wrecking the economy, destroying infrastructure, and wreaking havoc for millions of people, it makes it much easier for a government to enact emergency measures in the “national interests.”
That’s what the Austerity Cult was all about: exploiting a recession to destroy civil liberties & impose greater power of businesses & influential individuals over the state and people. Now that austerity has lost its lustre, the UK needs a new disaster to roll out its latest acquisitions – and the opposition are helping them every step of the way through their sheer ineptitude.
The omnipotent British nationalist propaganda machine that is the UK msm will sell any Brexit outcome as a victory for the British.
If they can brainwash their subjects into being warcrime and paedohile ring accepters,then no Brexit,soft Brexit or hard Brexit will be easy.
What option do they have?
“There’s a much darker, more terrible possibility: that making a chaotic mess was the plan all along. By wrecking the economy, destroying infrastructure, and wreaking havoc for millions of people, it makes it much easier for a government to enact emergency measures in the “national interests.”
That’s what the Austerity Cult was all about: exploiting a recession to destroy civil liberties & impose greater power of businesses & influential individuals over the state and people. Now that austerity has lost its lustre, the UK needs a new disaster to roll out its latest acquisitions”
Very true. Though they can always find SOME excuse for that plan.
I disagree. I never thought that May was for remain but she did want to stay on Dave’s side and keep her cabinet job.
What the driving force of leave all have in common are assets, companies, trust funds and other monetary interests in offshore tax havens.
The UK government used their veto power in the EU to substantially water down the proposed new regulations for banks after they crashed. Also with the new EU anti-money laundering regime, keeping trust funds exempt and British tax havens off ‘the list’.
The press are largely owned by such persons, Murdoch, Rothermere and the Barclay brothers.
She had barely left Buckingham Palace and she was off to New York, summoned to a private meeting with Murdoch.
The UK is being run (into the ground) entirely in the interests of a very wealthy elite many of whom are not even domiciled here and certainly don’t want to pay all due taxes here.
As the EU (without the UK) tightens regulations and other countries follow suit the world’s dirty money will all be safe in the good old pariah state of Britain and its territories.
If the Tories all along were going for a hard Brexit but won’t admit it until it’s to late they would be doing exactly as they are now?
I have not changed my opinion.
May was never really a remainer.
There will be a hard Brexit.
Westminster will slowly begin to roll back devolution and ensure that Scottish independence cannot happen.
Boiling the frog indeed.
If May/Government don`t remove England from EU there will be rioting in/on the streets of Engladshire,
the ordinary Anglo/Saxon/Norman little englander who voted to leave Europe will feel justified in an orgy of violence in every city, town, village of Englandshire,
the summer of 2019 will erupt in a wave of civil disorder from Hastings to Carlisle.
just sayin.
This is precisely why those leading the Yes movement have to have extremely cool heads at the moment – and it would be helpful if the rest of us would all try and ca’ canny a bit as well.
Imagine if we did as some demand and set a date for a referendum now, then suddenly the Brexit negotiations collapse and it’s decided to just abandon Brexit completely. All of a sudden, the “material change” part of the mandate has disappeared, and we’re left campaigning on “yeah but they ALMOST took us out of the EU”, to which the stick-with-the-devil-I-know voters would go “yeah but they didn’t actually do it, and they’ve now demonstrated that they can’t do it anyway”.
This whole thing is one giant game of three-dimensional chess. We have to let them box themselves into a corner before we make our next move. That’s why we can’t even think about setting a date until October 2018, when we’ll know if and how the UK is actually going to leave the EU. All of us reading this article are ready to vote Yes as soon as possible, but it’s not about us, it’s about the folk who voted No in 2014 and haven’t yet been persuaded to back Yes, but will be if we play our cards right.
IMO Theresa May has no position on BREXIT. She is implementing the policy on behalf of corporations, mainly American corporations, but also City finace houses such as the one her husband runs.
As in the US, there is a conflict between manufacturing companies and finance companies – Main St v Wall St. Most of Main St having emigrated to Shanghai.
The rest of us are mere bystanders who will be told what the outcome is in due course. Unless, of course, we take action to bring about democracy.
“…All of a sudden, the “material change” part of the mandate has disappeared…”
The way things are shaping up though, Doug, the ‘material change’ may be the scorching of the 1997 Scotland Act. That truly would be material change and an Indy Ref justified on that action alone. They don’t need to pull back from Brexit to default on the 1997 Scotland Act.
A note of caution: The EU might not accept a revocation of Article 50 unless it is done in “good faith”. That means some kind of guarantee or agreement not to turn around and trigger it again in 2021(“We’re really ready to negotiate now!”).
Parliament hasn’t got a political mandate to promise that. To lessen the abortion of Brexit being viewed as undemocratic, a general election or referendum is required.
A vote during the dark half of the year(Oct-March) is going to play hell with the turnout numbers.
Get the popcorn out guys.
https://news.sky.com/story/brexiteers-threaten-to-bring-down-the-government-over-any-customs-union-deal-11355410
If my memory is right I believe that Feartie has only 8 weeks left to come up with a workable solution for the Irish border problem otherwise the E.U. will refuse to hold any further trade negotiations with the corrupt broken bankrupt UK.
p.s. I love the photie of one of the members of the Constipated Quartet who’s first single “Fart Flung Flyer” is due out next week! 😀
“The way things are shaping up though, Doug, the ‘material change’ may be the scorching of the 1997 Scotland Act. That truly would be material change and an Indy Ref justified on that action alone. They don’t need to pull back from Brexit to default on the 1997 Scotland Act.”
Bear in mind that this is all about Clause 11 in the EU Withdrawal Bill. No EU Withdrawal Bill, no Clause 11. But even if they decided to proceed with some measures anyway, I’m less than convinced the folk who went “I’m voting to stick with the UK cos I’m worried my mortgage might go up 0.5%” give much of a shit about the devolution principle being reversed.
In the interests of accuracy and fairness I have to point out that it was the EU who would not countenance ANY negotiation on trade unless the exit payments etc had been agreed first. For practical reasons I could only see extending negotiations being the way forward.
Of course, if you were choosing who to pick for your negotiating team on ANY of this you would neither pick Davies nor ANY Tory. They can’t be trusted, they lack experience and there is no good will towards them from the other side.
Simply going back on the idea of leaving is not an option, England would not stand for it, and the Tories know it. They’d lose most of their seats and likely never be able to form another government, that reason ALONE will ensure Brexit WILL happen. Doing it ‘in name only’ is still rather unlikely but those on the extreme fringe, like Mogg, will complain bitterly regardless. This will make little difference though, because he might be the poster boy for the far right but he is unelectable by any EXCEPT the far right.
I predict that the Tories will fudge, cobble together and fail to properly complete a deal. They will choose the least favourable options (for the people) and yet will proclaim it as a victory. Labour will maintain their hands off approach lest they be blamed for anything which goes wrong – which it all will. In 30 to 40 years time there will have been refinements which will not so much ‘improve’ the deal as make it ‘not QUITE as bad as it was’
Big businesses will have found ways to pay less tax, employment rights will be torn up, unions will be weakened to almost non existence and, unless we here in Scotland stop being spineless, we will suffer disproportionately at the hands of future Tory and Labour gevernments removing powers, failing to give back the ones they’ve taken and pay much more tax to offset the Tories raping our welfare system and leaving us destitute…
Brexit was sold on premise of a lie – that UK could exit EU and retain single market benefits. The basic principals of Brexit appealed to British nationalists – however the EU and immigrants were never to blame for the UKs many problems such as social inequality.
Fundamentally Theresa May has never really had a position on Brexit.
Her two red lines of ‘exiting the customs union’ AND ‘no Irish border’ were always incompatible with each other. Plus her parliamentary majority depended on support from the DUP MPs. Ultimately the EU know this and could topple May from government at any time of their choosing.
The elephant in the room was always the single market. We could have left the EU and happily enjoyed EEA status (exactly like Norway, CH or Iceland) with minimal impact. However for the rabid far right of the Tory party this was never going to be enough….
Every move by the UK government so far has been designed to kick the can down road – avoid answering the really difficult questions for as long as possible. However the longer they delay the more serious the impact and repercussions become…
Its all coming to a head now.
The brexit fantasy has been exposed.
Excuse me a moment of shadenfreude whilst they tear themselves apart.
This isn’t going to end well. The sensible option for believers in Scottish independence is to calmly watch and wait. We didn’t vote
for this…. Xenophobic little Englanders are the odd man out. They have fallen out with EU, Ireland and Scotland over Brexit.
There is no going back for the Tories / UK government.
They are in way to deep and the fall out will be spectacular.
Tick-tock tick-tock.
P.s the proposed terms of the transition deal mirror those of EEA membership. The government and whitehall know there are no real benefits from hard Brexit. We will never negotiate trade access equivalent to the EU on our own (basic economies of scale!).
Yet : the Tories remain driven by far right xenophobia.
Hence the last 2 years of can kicking to keep the brexit fantasy alive for as long as possible.
http://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.nl/2018/04/brexiters-would-have-been-much-happier.html?m=1
Interesting viewpoint on leavers.
Taranaich . . . ” it makes it much easier to enact emergency measures”
It makes it much easier to get naval ratings to man the new Carriers, or introduce conscription.
Brexit paves the way for war with our neighbours some time down the line.
O/T Following latest NHS England Breast screening scandal, no wonder Tories aren’t calling for Shona Robison to resign.
I think their Union is important, very important.
Going into the history books as the PM and government which oversaw Brexit, a failed one, a damaging one, an unpopular one, or even an unpopular failure to deliver one … is big.
Going into the history books as the PM and government which provoked the permanent dissolution of the UK … is absolutely massive!
The situation in Ireland will move the North closer to reunification. Getting Brexit wrong could result in reunification. The Union in Ireland is going to come out weaker after any Brexit.
We know the situation in Scotland. A hard Brexit must result in ScotRef and we hope to win.
May et al stand a very real chance of being instrumental in the destruction of the UK.
I think that matters more to them than any Brexit, good, bad, or messy.
Stu may be right and getting the whole thing stopped is a sure fire way to retain the UK for the foreseeable future.
Having said all that, the Tories seem arrogant and ignorant enough to think that the exact opposite of a hard crash out Brexit suits their aims. They would enter a situation which could classed as a ‘state of emergency’ and act like Spain. Thus securing their Union by heavy handed means. Those who want to create a mad bad ultra right UK can proceed with their project unfettered by residual EU ties.
Either way, we should know soon!
It is frightening to know that even though the PM is hopelessly inept in all departments. That she still leads in the polls.
That doesn’t bode well for Scotland or the other devolved nations that make up these islands.
“I’m less than convinced the folk who went “I’m voting to stick with the UK cos I’m worried my mortgage might go up 0.5%” give much of a shit about the devolution principle being reversed.”
Except, Doug, in Scotland there was a higher % vote for devolution in the 1997 referendum than there was for Remaining in the EU-Ref.
If the Scotland Act is undermined by this Tory government in any way then that is a ‘material change’ from the settled will of the people of Scotland. And you can be sure that I, for one, will bloody well be demanding a referendum on that basis.
You can bank on it.
The Tory ruling elite probably don’t really care whether Brexit is soft , hard or no deal/wto rules, just as long as they continue to make money. They really could not care less as regards “ the country” being poorer etc. Just as long as they continue to rule for the benefit of themselves “ the financial elite” ,corporate industry barons wealthy financiers and landowners. As far as they are concerned , so much the better if the economy “ tanks” and unemployment increases, as people become desperate and willing to take jobs at any price for their Labour.
However, despite the continued smokescreen of Brexit and the delays and prevarication of the Tory Westminster Junta, the REAL FEAR for them is the ongoing threat of Independence for their “ precious precious cash cow” Scotland . Hence the never ending delays over any clarification over Brexit , to prevent our FM from calling Indyref 2.
The “ House of Lords” , clearly now see the danger to the Union and possible break up of the U.K. Hence the latest moves to stay in “ a customs union” and moves to prevent the “ power grab “ from being heard in the “ Supreme Court” where the issue of Scottish sovereignty would raised.
They see the grave threat now on the horizon to the integrity of the UK . Thus , if necessary when the crunch comes, all options will be on the table to save “ the precious precious union “ as far as the House of Lords is now concerned .
I.e. A general election and/ or another EU referendum and / or a parliamentary “ fudge/ stitchup “ to be “ half in half out of customs union/ SM .
The “Asset and balance sheet of the precious union” is ( and always has been) the REAL “ be and end all” for “the ruling elite” and not the “ day to day trading account” in the context of Brexit.
As far as I can see, there are three possible secret plans in TM’s drawer:
(1) To sabotage the process so that the UK remains in the EU, as outlined in this article.
(2) To do a hard or even cliff-edge Brexit so that all the disaster capitalists in the Tory party can earn obscene amounts of money.
(3) To obtain a new type EU membership (EU à la carte) whereby the UK can opt in or out to everything, allowing the UK to opt out of the free movement of people. This is pretty much how the UK currently participates in Justice and Home affairs (which is, of course, the area TM knows best). [This option has been vetoed by the EU.]
There are good arguments in favour of either of the three solutions being the one TM really wants. I don’t think we’ll know for a long time, if ever.
Anyway, I guess the question we really need to ask ourselves is what each option means for obtaining Scottish independence. For instance, if it’s option (2), there won’t be a transitional period, so the pain starts in April next year, and what do we do in that case?
Can I point people towards Prof Richard Norths blog EUReferendum.com – specifically Brexit Monograph 004, as it deals with this issue.
Specifically if no deal is reached by the end of the 2 year S50 process, the UK drops out of EU membership as a Third Country and with nothing in place.
If they want to change their minds and cancel the whole shooting match – they will have to re-apply for full membership (without exemption clauses) and the 27 member countries will have a say on agreeing to them re-joining (I’m not sure if each country might even have a veto?)
http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/BrexitMonograph004.pdf
‘Timing of the Article 50 Negotiation
There is no provision in treaty law as to when Article 50 should be invoked, and no means by which a Member State can be required to make a notification. In this context, the choice of timing is entirely a matter for the United Kingdom.
However, there is one dominant element which decides the choice. This is the time limitation of two years imposed by the Article. If no agreement has been reached by the end of the period, the treaties automatically cease to have effect and the UK ceases to be a member of the EU – unless a time extension is sought – which would require the unanimous approval of the European Council.
Reversing the Article 50 notification
There are several schools of thought as to whether, once invoked, the UK can change its mind and decide not to leave, reversing Article 50.
Some commentators assert that, once the Article 50 notification has been lodged, the UK could withdraw its notification and that other Member States would readily permit that to be done, within the framework of the EU treaties – even though there is no formal procedure which permits this to happen.31 Furthermore, Article 50(5) requires of a State which has withdrawn from the Union that, in order for it to rejoin, it must go through the full application procedure set out in Article 49.
This is the full entry process. No concessions are made for previous membership. Rejoining demands completion of the full candidature procedure. This would require a commitment to joining the euro, which does not allow for the inclusion of any previously negotiated opt-outs.32
If the view of the Praesidium of the European Convention prevails, and the decision to leave the EU has been made before Article 50 is invoked, this means that, by the time the notification is made, the withdrawing state has effectively left the EU but has decided to delay the implementation of that decision. On that basis, reversing the Article 50 notification would have no effect. To reverse the decision would require submitting to the Article 49 procedure.’
You know things are very bad in government when the Tories would propose a Scottish woman to be the next English PM. If Ruth Davidson that talentless loud mouth became an English MP. What are the English voter thinking off..Forgot they already voted on some strange people.
Don’t forget that tomorrow (Thursday) a lot of us living in England (yes, I’m living in exile from my two most-beloved nations) go to the polls in Council elections.
Let’s see if May gets a bloody nose (widely predicted) and/or Corbyn’s troops storm many a town hall.
Having only recently been given the vote here in Englandshire, I am tempted to write “None of the Above” and do my own little bit for (local) democracy. It’s not as if I have a Member of PC or SNP standing in my Ward, anyway.
Best,
David Davis may well be “thinking of STARTING negotiating a trade deal with the EU”. And, to the sane people, this may seem extraordinarily belated. But it’s not at all clear that any meaningful trade negotiations with any country are even possible while the UK is neither fully in nor entirely out of the EU.
With that self-serving exceptionalism that so grates on sane people, the British political elite wants the UK to be regarded as either – or perhaps both – an EU member and a third country as suits the purposes of the British state. It is very difficult to see why the EU, or anybody else, should go along with this.
Britannia may waive the rules. Others don’t have to waive back.
What should be causing sane people across the nation to share Stu Campbell’s very evident frustrated annoyance is, not the fact that the UK is only now considering trade negotiations with the EU, but that the British political elite dragged us all into the Brexit mincer either dumbly unaware or recklessly heedless of the fact that the UK would be left in a negotiating limbo; entirely dependent on the goodwill of those that Brexit was always bound to alienate and naively reliant on the graciousness of those who have no reason to serve the UK’s interests.
This frustrated annoyance is bound to afflict anyone who tries to discern some order and purpose in the pond-life twitchings and squirmings of the British government. The problem with the analysis offered here is that is assumes Davis, Fox, May and the rest are actually aware of what a “catastroshambles” Brexit is. There is little evidence of this. They all seem to suppose that everything is going quite swimmingly.
There is no plan here. There is only what can be portrayed as purposeful, and what must be blamed on others.
Voting intentions appear to show that British nationalists will stand by the Tories and Theresa May even if she turned up at PMQs chewing the elbow of a Windrush victim washing it down with a cheeky wee cheap cider while telling us to tighten our belts, and in Scotland we’ve got our share of them too and they don’t look like changing their minds on anything no matter the consequences, and unfortunately the position seems like a hate driven madness that those people are not prepared to reverse or even modify until they fulfill their ambition to overule then rule by attrition
While all attempts at compromise and negotiation must be tried I’m not at all confident Scotland will even dent the sides of this argument, England regards Scotland as nuisance value and their parliament barely even that
Whether 5 or 6 or 7 thousand people turn up to march it will be under reported and played down until the SNP make it official and Scotland mobilises like the Catalans in the hundreds of thousands or no one will see or hear us
We need more noise so come on SNP members I’m one and I’ll be there, we need the rest of you to put on a show they’ll have difficulty ignoring
A wee bit O/T but still about Brexit – borrowed from one of the links on the Rev’s Twitter.
10 simple questions.
Let’s forget I oppose Brexit. Let’s assume it’s happening, and it HAS to work.
If we don’t find answers for these questions, Brexit will fail, and we’ll all suffer.
So why is nobody from the Leave campaign asking these?
The questions…
New conversatioMore???26% of NHS doctors are migrants. It takes 7 years to train a doctor.
We’ve already lost 10,000 doctors since the referendum. We plan to expel even skilled immigrants after 5 years. So where are the courses to urgently train 23,000 replacement doctors??More???11% of other NHS staff (nurses, midwives, therapists, lab technicians etc) are migrants.
Where are the training bursaries to attract the 50,000 replacements we need? The new colleges? The new teachers??More???UK has a 19,000 mile coastline, and over 40 commercial airports.
To keep out migrants – a key promise of Brexit – we need thousands of border security staff. We are training none. Why not??More???The National Farmers Union has warned that a lack of migrants will affect food security. There are already reports of crops rotting in fields because nobody is available to pick them.
Where are the plans to train the 80,000 seasonal workers farming needs? ?More???The Dept of Transport anticipates 150 miles of daily tailbacks in Kent after Brexit, as lorries queue to get through slower passport controls.
Where are the road widening schemes? The lay-bys? The traffic management investment??More???The Civil Service Managers Union estimates we’ll need 28,000 additional civil servants to replace EU provision.
Where are the job adverts? The buildings? The training??More???The UK currently has 92,000 care home staff vacancies, and 150,000 existing carers are immigrants.
Where is the funding to train 240,000 new care home workers??More???200,000 migrants work in UK construction. We’re in the middle of a housing crisis.
Where is the funding to train British replacements? Where will Leavers’ kids live if there’s nobody around to build homes??More???Finally, 320,000 immigrants work in financial services. Where is the training to replace their skills in the next 12 months, especially as 11% of tax revenue relies on that industry?
Without them we have to make cuts bigger than the ENTIRE education budget.?More??In case it’s unclear, that’s at least 1,397,000 jobs – many highly skilled – that we need to fill in 12 months… or start training two years ago.?More?And that’s just the direct jobs: it doesn’t count all the additional teachers, administrators, quality controllers and examiners required to attain the quality we expect from so many of these vital skills.
Removing or barring immigrants – as the government plans to do – is only half the question.
Replacing those immigrants’ essential contribution to our economy and national fabric is the bit the Leave campaign has never explained.?
ronnie anderson says:
2 May, 2018 at 2:07 pm
http://www.facebook.com/events/184174062126098/ AUOB March
Not looking good. They are getting desperate.
Does anyone else get that awful feeling that IndyRef 2 may end up more like Catalonia 2017 than Scotland 2014?
We may have a nasty struggle on our hands.
The Scottish government cannot back down, whatever happens.
The obvious circle WM cannot square is that brexit is almost certain to end the 1707 Union with Scotland.
If this (brexit) was happening in 2014, WM could probably feel more confident of getting brexit and keeping The Union.
However, we have had over 3 and a half years of watching the lies become obvious to more and more Scots, so now, brexit is MUCH more likely to lead to Indy.
And that is the WM problem, the People of England would probably see ending the Union as a price they would gladly pay for brexit, proper “empire hard” brexit at that..but WM politicians KNOW what Scotland brings to the Union, financially, and that without our revenues, the post Scots indy English economy, would tank, especially with the loss of foreign currency income via oil sales.
WM cannot tell the English this though, as that would expose the lying narrative of the last 40 odd years that England subsidises Scotland.
So there it is, English people would happily wave Scotland goodbye to get brexit, but WM unionists KNOW that would be an utter disaster which they would be left to deal with.
Cannot imagine that going down too well.
We are in a great position here, and that is because we did not listen to those who were demanding An indyref last year.
Timing was always critical, and current events are proving the case.
At a time when Scotland’s democracy is under threat, there is no Politics Scotland on BBC TV this afternoon as we in Scotland are deemed more interested in snooker.
However to-morrow the snooker coverage is cut short so that we can enjoy the English Council election results.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/may/02/jeremy-hunt-to-launch-inquiry-into-450000-missed-breast-cancer-screenings
Shona Robison RESIGN!!!! SNP BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAD!
Ooops!!!!!
Doesn’t anyone else remember how the Tories, especially May behaved during the 2017 General Election – like they were really trying hard to lose?
Perhaps they were! It fits with The Rev’s theory.
I don’t agree that leaving the EU is impossible. It’s impossible under May’s terms. However I think we will be leaving on the EU’s terms now. We have pissed them off enough so they will want shot of the UK without a deal and hell mend them.
There will be a referendum on uniting Eire or an emergency implementation of an EU holding pen for the North. This is going to get very messy indeed. Don’t forget once the UK stops attending EU council meetings and paying bills there will be no place for the UK. Indeed they have already been excluded from some of the agreed partnerships and financial agreements.
It’s simply too late to go back 2 years and simply carry on. The EU will not stand for it!
Westminster (whoever is the government) dare not stay in the EU. They are dealing with the English electorate. They will not tolerate a reversal. They have shown a profound understanding of the Scots electorate -ie do whatever you want to them they will never react. They must surely also know their own electorate has a rather shorter fuse and will resort to violence if they don’t get what they voted for. Whether May is a closet remain supporter and the nearly 23 months since the EU referendum has been an elaborate game to actually stay in the EU is neither here nor there. They have wakened a sleeping monster which they will not be able to control. If the Rev is correct, the Westminster government is being very foolish indeed.
Perhaps a better explanation for the fiasco of Brexit is that Westminster politicians are useless incompetents and that just because someone has a posh accent doesn’t mean they’re not an idiot.
Luigi – Yes we are kind of heading down the Catalonia route. I believe it will start when they ignore the SG and carry on with the Brexit bill. We will have to withdraw our MP’s from WM like the Irish did.
Scotland will be run from Scotland under the emergency legislation. The technical process will mean that the UK can’t get trade deals through or EU exit processes agreed. It will be a case of who blinks first.
I think the SG will run Scotland in this manner pending a referendum. Essentially acting as an independent state.
The difference with us and Catalonia is that we are already recognised by the UN as a nation. Our police are not British they are Scottish and will act under command of the Scottish legal system and government. So there will be no intimidation of voters unlike Catalonia.
The other aspect is the UK breaking the terms of both the union and the devolution settlement. This will play in our favour legally.
I don’t think our leaders will have to run anywhere because Scotland is not Catalonia.
Big Jock…slavering pish as usual.
“Yes we are kind of heading down the Catalonia route”
“Scotland is not Catalonia”
All within one post…deary me !!
Proud Cybernat: “If the Scotland Act is undermined by this Tory government in any way then that is a ‘material change’ from the settled will of the people of Scotland. And you can be sure that I, for one, will bloody well be demanding a referendum on that basis.
You can bank on it.”
And I would be demanding it under those circumstances too. But we already want independence, so we’re kinda irrelevant in terms of judging the timing. It’s whether or not folk who voted No last time feel it’s a “material change” that matters. You would hope so, but I’m extremely sceptical about such folk suddenly rising up in anger about a lack of democracy when they didn’t think it was important enough to vote Yes last time.
This assumes Theresa May is in control of anything which I doubt. I favour incompetence over conspiracy, generally.
^ true.
however hard brexit will be an economic cliff edge.
UK economy will take measurable hit and never recover.
IMHO such obvious ‘brexit effect’ is (lamentably) what is required to generate a majority in favor of independence.
The Tories are unwittingly handing it to us on a plate…
– Out of EU
– Devolution dis-respected
We simply need to remain calm and patiently wait for the right time. A hard brexit is not what I want – longer term it will be unmitigated disaster : but perversely make Scottish independence almost certain.
The reason they’re showing the English Council election n results in Scotland..
.is so that the half million non Scots who voted No in 2014 can see how their postal votes have influenced local elections there too.
Democracy my arse.
@Doug Daniel: “This is precisely why those leading the Yes movement have to have extremely cool heads at the moment”
Depends on who you regard as leading the YES movement. The SNP leadership have to play it very carefully at the moment. They can’t, for instance, endorse the march on Saturday, nor officially talk about any Indy Ref just now. The game in town is the EU Withdrawal Bill and the Continuity Bill, and any mention of IR2 could scare off the support of Labour and the LibDems. Which is very important for us as it splits them from the Tories in Better Together terms.
But there’s nothing to stop the rest of us piling on the pressure, and indeed that is effectively what Sturgeon was talking about when she said that it would come from the people. So in a way the less cool the heads the better.
“It’s whether or not folk who voted No last time feel it’s a “material change” that matters.”
Doug – a lot of those who voted NO in 2014 did so on the promise a better, faster, safer devolution with more powers coming to Holyrood. Remember ‘The Vow’?
I think there will be well more than ‘many’ who will consider undermining the 1997 settlement as a betrayal and will see it as a ‘material change’.
And will act accordingly in IndyRef2. Whenever it’s held.
galamcennalath says: at 2:57 pm
“Doesn’t anyone else remember how the Tories, especially May behaved during the 2017 General Election – like they were really trying hard to lose?”
In England perhaps, galamcennalath, but it would be very hard to prove in Scotland where the targeting was lethal and money no object.
Another point about that by the way (the SNP leadership). Sturgeon had an article in the Herald on Sunday, about the power grab and actions, and it was word perfect. Not once did she mention Indy or Ref, and that was absolutely vital, to keep Labour and the LibDems onside in protecting Devolution.
Like I said, I think it’s vital we the grassroots keep piling on the pressure, but there is absolutely nothing the SNP leadership can, or will do for a few weeks – maybe 6 or 7.
Geeo- Did you read my post?
What a nasty little character you are. I have been posting on here since day one. We are heading down the Catalonia route in that it will be a constitutional crisis.
We are not heading to the same outcome as Catalonia though as Scotland is different constitutionally to Catalonia.
Maybe your red mist gets in the way of your thought process.
Honestly people like you who like to insult people because you don’t agree or understand their points are not worth debating with. It’s a democracy not a nodding heads fraternity on here!
Geeo- Seen as you are in an insulting mood.
Your post:”We are in a great position here, and that is because we did not listen to those who were demanding An indyref last year. ”
How do you know the outcome of a vote that never happened, are you a time traveller?
yesindyref2: “But there’s nothing to stop the rest of us piling on the pressure, and indeed that is effectively what Sturgeon was talking about when she said that it would come from the people. So in a way the less cool the heads the better.”
But the only person having pressure piled on them at the moment in regards to referendum timing is Nicola Sturgeon. There are already people threatening to retract their support from the SNP if a referendum isn’t called this year, which is the most bizarre way of piling pressure onto the UK Government imaginable. Why would they suddenly back down if they think the SNP is going to start shedding members and supporters?
O/T.
It’s estimated that Harry’s wedding to Meghan will cost a whopping £32 million quid, including security.
http://metro.co.uk/2018/05/02/much-prince-harry-meghan-markles-royal-wedding-cost-pays-big-day-7515822/
Not archiving for some reason.
Big Jock,
Thanks for the post. I get it. WM are getting bloody desperate so who knows what they are cooking?
They can’t afford to lose Scotland post BREXIT, but we may soon reach the point when they cannot hold on by peaceful democratic means. I kid you not. It may come down to what Uncle Sam will allow them to get away with. Same goes for Ireland.
Then what happens is anyone’s guess.
Unchartered waters.
Proud Cybernat: “Doug – a lot of those who voted NO in 2014 did so on the promise a better, faster, safer devolution with more powers coming to Holyrood. Remember ‘The Vow’?
I think there will be well more than ‘many’ who will consider undermining the 1997 settlement as a betrayal and will see it as a ‘material change’.”
I do remember the Vow. I have yet to meet a single person who was going to vote Yes until they saw the Vow, and decided to vote No instead. At most, it gave folk an excuse to do what they were already going to do anyway, but with less guilt.
But again, if there’s no material change in the form of Brexit, then there’ll be no material change in the form of undermining the 1997 settlement. No Brexit = no EU Withdrawal Bill = no Clause 11. They would have to pass an entirely separate bill unrelated to Brexit, and I don’t think they’re quite THAT stupid, because that really WOULD lead to outrage.
Isn’t the default position Brexit without a deal?
Westminster failing to work out a deal doesn’t mean we stay in the EU. Westminster would have to revoke Article 50 (is that even legally possible?) and persuade the EU to accept the UK’s revocation of article 50.
Is there a majority in Westminster prepared to actively vote to repeal Article 50? I seriously doubt it. May is steering for the hardest of hard Brexits, as far as I can see.
There is a different attitude to SNP members in Westminster. They are listened to and treated with more respect. Whether it is because they need consent to their Brexit Bill or the threat of another Indy Ref.
Sometimes it seems to be there could be an agreement to hand back powers gradually for a smooth transfer? They do not have the se voir faire to do it immediately. No gumption as to what to do. To decouple. It would take a few years in any case. Even if people vote YES.
It really is a puzzle. Why Westminster regime do not come to an agreement. If Scotland wants rid of Trident take it somewhere else. Establish a Naval base at Faslane. Unit price for fuel and energy should be lower in Scotland. In surplus and nearer the source. Stop trying to take powers from Scotland and give what was promised. The Vow. Compromises instead of confrontation all the time. If Scotland gets better off so does the rest of the UK. The Scottish Government should not give an inch. Or just minor compromise. Only if totally necessary.
Brexit farce is just a total disaster.
Scotland is nothing like Catalonia. Different. That is the problem with the constant comparison without qualification. People start saying it will be the same as Catalonia. Then some non informed folk will not vote for Independence. Imagining chaos. Scotland has always gone through the Law and will continue. That is why UDI is not an option unless people vote for it. Hardly likely and unnecessary.
The Catalonia Gov politicians should have done the same. Appealed to the ECHR on grounds of self determination. If they had a case it would have been supported. The Spanish Gov would have had to have allowed a Referendum. Come to an agreement. In Catalonia support is 40%. In Scotland it is 50%.
Queen flew in a helicopter to see baby. £10,000 an hour. £32Million for a wedding. Imagine. They have no shame. The Royals worth £2Billion should have paid for it. People being sanctioned and using food banks. Increased mental health problems with worry. The vulnerable being targeted.
It will be no surprise that I agree with Douglas Daniel (and with the article) that Brexit is so chaotic that it’s not currently possible to proceed with a referendum on that basis until we know what the hell is happening. Hence cool heads to the point of frostiness are required.
Which knowledge of how Brexit is turning out could come this year, or it could come next year, or at the end of Transition in December 2020. Remember Barnier has clearly said that the EU would be open to the UK changing it’s mind on the customs union and single market any time up to the end of December 2020
If there’s snap general election, the option to put a unqualified commitment to a referendum in the manifesto is there. If we aren’t on the move by December 2020 then the further option of an unqualified mandate, as in 2011, via Holyrood exists. Preferably with the Greens on board as well as the SNP. In that scenario, Referendum 2023 or 24, with no EU issue to muddy the water.
Refusal of a referendum, with an unconditional mandate, on the basis that only Westminster MP’s are sovereign, immediately implies that a majority of Scottish MPs elected on a platform of independence is the only acceptable mandate. Ireland 1918
Then follows withdrawal from Westminster, establishment of a constituent assembly, and a confirmatory referendum thereafter. That can’t be prevented except by banning elections entirely.
As Alex Salmond observed there are many ways to skin this particular cat. But first, a majority.
The only way that the Tories could even remotely get away with not leaving the EU is by engineering a second EU referendum and this time the Remain vote wins.
The average Tory voter was massively in support of Leaving the EU with 61% voting Leave, not surprisingly 95% of UKIP voters also voted Leave.
Big difference between the Tories and Lab/Lib voters who were 65% and 68% in favour of Remain. Yougov poll 2016.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/06/27/how-britain-voted/
I doubt Theresa Mays personal ratings as “best option for PM” would survive her party choosing to stay in the EU. Voters/supporters would likely desert her in droves if she even survived as leader.
Incidently, some other interesting figures in that post referendum poll such as the 18-24 age group were 71% in favour of Remain.
Must lower the chances of any riots as don’t see many OAP’s who were 64% in favour of Leave taking to the streets.
We already have a majority of Mp’s at Westminster. Indeed we have won it twice. We have a majority with the Greens in Holyrood and we have the parliament consent for a referendum.
We don’t need any further mandates, that’s a trap. We just have to agree when to strike but it must be by March 2019. That is officially Brexit day.
It would be comforting, perhaps, to speculate the Maybot is deliberately sabotaging the Brexit process but, if even true, there are far too many unknowns to successfully speculate the final Brexit outcome. Even if we can delimitate what might be, from the cliff-edge (vaguely possible) to revocation of the process (somewhat unlikely) we are none the wiser, especially about where this leaves the Scottish Independence movement and timings for Indyref2.
The UK is completely unprepared for any cliff-edge scenario and doesn’t appear to be doing much thinking about what may need to be done possibly because the msm and nationalist politicians seem to revel in their collective ignorance over the inherent complexities a cliff-edge scenario will impose. Whenever a unionist politician or msm journalist pronounces about single markets, custom unions, free trade agreements or whatever, they invariably speak nonsense, nonsense which is then regurgitated by the next in line reinforcing the feedback loop.
None of the above inhibits speculating so, for the record, I speculate that the transition period will get extended indefinitely; the UK will be out of the EU but will continue to contribute funds and obey the rules but have no say on either. Such a situation delays having confront any of the issues Brexit throws up (including a date for Indyref2) and will probably suit the EU27 just fine.
@Doug Daniel
I don’t mean pressure on the UK Gov, it’s [ressure on the Scot Gov or more precisely, the SNP in light of Pete Wishart’s “delay delay delay” postings and tweets. Which some are worried might be the official line of the SNP and that he’s flying a kite to test responses about elaving it till after the next election.
So basically speaking the grassroots needs to keep piling pressure on Sturgeon, and she needs to keep resisting. But in any case they must use their mandate within this parliamentary term, and in time to allow the possibility of Scotland via transition, not really leaving the EU except in the formality of applying ourselves. If that’s our wish.
It’s tough at the top!
“I do remember the Vow. I have yet to meet a single person who was going to vote Yes until they saw the Vow, and decided to vote No instead. At most, it gave folk an excuse to do what they were already going to do anyway, but with less guilt.”
Well Doug – you’re obviously not asking the right people. A poll in the Guardian as to why NO voters voted NO in 2014 found that 25% did so on the promise of more powers for Holyrood.
(Question #6. Sorry – won’t archive): https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/20/scottish-independence-lord-ashcroft-poll
Given what we are witnessing today with the unprecedented threat to our Parliament, if just half of that 25% in IndyRef2 see that their parliament is NOT being made stronger with more powers but, in fact, is having powers stripped AWAY by WM, then I wager a majority of them will change their mind as a result of that ‘material change’ and IndyRef2 will be won.
Proud Cybernat at 5.04
I’m entirely with Doug Daniel on this. I have met no one who changed their view or their vote as a result of “the Vow”. Everybody knew it was a last minute gamble with no content but it allows some folk (many of them ashamed)to say that is why they voted “No” when they could come up with no other reasonable explanation for doing so.
An excellent post, Stu, and as you say, “… it’s only possible to come to one rational conclusion about it: that the Prime Minister’s grand plan for enacting Brexit is to fail.”
However this conclusion does beg the question, ‘who in fact is running UK Plc’? Can it really be Theresa May, whose every word appears scripted and who has made evasion into a personal hallmark? So I’m not so sure it is, preferring to look beyond, to the Establishment and the City/Media Barons. I suspect in fact that this is where the Government’s instructions come from but which are never referred to, with State propaganda making it appear as if 10 Downing Street is in charge. The Prime Minister in the UK can only ever therefore be a puppet, controlled from elsewhere.
As for the Electorate, they are for the most part but trained mice, voting for cats.
For those who remember the pose from a Blackadder episode, mentioning the Scottish play was bad luck. So all I can say to the Tories is – Macbeth
ken500@4.32
I write this with a heavy heart, because the Unionist majority in the UK will back the totally ignorant, blinkered establishment and the ever expanding brood of parasites,” cause they bring tourists and people are interested in what time they have a shit, eat, have inbred sex with their corgis etc” whilst the citizens in the country that they so called represent are dying in the streets.
The word shame doesn’t even come into the equation, its truly embarrassing what the citizens of the UK will accept as the “norm”? their own lives are obviously meaningless.
I expect Blimp to throw a “Sickie” at FMQs tomorrow, “deflection, deflection, deflection.”
“Everybody knew it was a last minute gamble with no content but it allows some folk (many of them ashamed)to say that is why they voted “No” when they could come up with no other reasonable explanation for doing so.”
Well mibbess aye, mibbees naw. You cannot know that for certain. The fact of the matter is that 25% of NO voters in 2014 say they voted NO on the promise of more powers for Holyrood. Mibbee they voted that way because they were essentially devolutionists and wanted to give the UK one last chance? If that’s correct then I doubt many of them would be willig to give the UK another chance after what we are witnessing with WM shenanigans today.
The vast majority of people in Scotland (74.29%) supported the devolved settlement in 1997. 74.29% of people in Scotland wanted a measure of self-determination. If devolution is no longer a viable option when WM effectively neuters it then around 30% of people who supported Devo in 1997 have to make their minds up – Full Indy or Devo-Hee-Haw.
“A NO vote would still mean extra powers for the Scottish Parliament together
with the security of remaining part of the UK, giving the best of both worlds” – 25% of NO voters according to Ashcroft
https://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/09/Lord-Ashcroft-Polls-Referendum-day-poll-summary-1409191.pdf
@Welsh Sion
Likewise I will be going to the polls tomorrow wishing for a box to tick next to SNP. Never mind, I’ve decided, even though it’s council elections, I’ll be voting Green.
Re the Brexit ‘negotiations’ I think when Nicola announces she’s going to the country again, that’s the Scottish country of course, the EU will have no choice but to postpone the negotiations. How can they negotiate with a Union possibly on the verge of breaking up? The English will go mad and hopefully persuade Westminster that keeping Scotland in the Union is not wanted. They will force Westminster to either tell the truth about how Scotland is extremely well off (the only way to persuade the ScotBrits) or demand an Indy ref of their own.
Here’s hoping.
Lots of very interesting comments today. Thanks also for all the positive comments about my post over on O/T.
On the subject of timing Indy Ref 2 – it must be before then next GE, or else it will never be.
Anytime between then and now is fine with me.
But if we’re laying the ground work, like trying to change the direction of a big ship, we need to make the demand, the message and the posters, for YES NOW, well now really, to get that slogan seeping into the national collective. And it will strengthen the FM’s arm when she does call it.
With regards the exact terms of Brexit, yes the FM has to have a cool head before firing the starting gun, and will need the exact terms published. The rest of us do not need to be so sophisticated, and we can start now…. It’s Brexshit and Bad folks, there’s nothing good coming from it.
With regards the SNP and Pete Wishart – Pete and John Swinney gave a very good impression of heart broken and defeated men the other day – they have access to their own research and they do not believe we will win an Indy Ref 2.
And that’s a problem, because no-one gave them a mandate for Capitulation.
Yes we can and Now we Must
manandboy says:
Yes. Agree completely. It was two quite different GEs.
The object is Scotland was to hammer the SNP. Heaven knows what they were up to in England. It was such a piss poor campaign.
If they hadn’t gained seats in Scotland then they would actually have lost the GE.
I never understood the upset Gina Miller caused. Without forcing it to a vote at Westminster it might have been argued that May unilaterally submitting the A50 letter failed to fulfil the requirement of constitutional legality.
Also as the referendum was advisory only the legality of the campaign or result didn’t trigger A50 so any confirmation of it being invalid doesn’t affect the outcome.
Unless there’s another way of declaring the issuing of A50 void under UK law there’s no way the UK can unilaterally withdraw it. It’s only way of remaining would be a transitional arrangement whilst a new ascension treaty is worked out.
@Proudcybernat
The vow was aimed at those sitting on the fence not sure which way to vote. I would suspect that it could have swung some of these to the no side, especially those who would have voted for devo max but were apprehensive of voting yes.
Doug Daniel, at 419pm, and earlier,
You make some valid points, but here’s the REAL problem I have, if this is a ‘strategy’ being pursued by the Sciotgoiv/SNP, then why is it they aren’t even talking about independence.
I see people regularly wondering why the public demand for independence is not soaring due to the mess in Westminster, and the simple answer is, NOBODY publicly is strongly making the argument for independence. In my opinion, it is a miracle the YES vote has held up, considering the political party which claims to stand for independence (and has more MP’s, MSPs and councillors than any other party in Scotland), barely mentions the subject.
Honestly, their is a wide open goal right now with a weak inept, corrupt failing extreme right wing Tory government in London, and it strikes, me that even in the very best circumstances (such as right now), the SNP would yet again procrastinate. If we just wait another year, or week or month, or until an election, or the next election, or until the next full moon….anything to stop them having to stand up for what they say they believe in.
Right now, every single day, in every single answer, the SNP/Scotgov, should be talking of how the only lifeline for Scotland will be independence. Of course the unionists will howl, of course the media will scream blue murder, but if NOBODY makes the case for independence, and gets it on the agenda NOW, then no matter how good an opportunity arises later, the inertia will be too great. It needs to be first and foremost on the political agendas in Scotland RIGHT NOW.
People seem to have forgotten, that when Alex Salmond was First Minister, in every interview or statement or question he would mention, that ‘this’ is why more and more Scots want independence, or ‘this’ is why Scotland needs to more on from Westminster rule, and once again become a great progressive forward thinking nation. The problem I have is NOBODY in the SNP/Scotgov leadership is doing this. It is like they are now feart of anybody criticising them for mentioning independence.
I also suspect that the fact that the FM is married to the chief executive of the SNP, is part of the problem. (and I would think that even if the sexes were reversed).
If brexit is a success for the U.K. then frankly it will spell the beginning of the end for the EU. That’s why the U.K. cannot be successful. Interestingly I spoke to someone after the brexit vote who was convinced it just wouldn’t happen and speaking to pro-brexit folk I know their view is that the government are making a mess of it. When I ask them what they would do differently you just get the “tell Barnier to shove it” (yes it could be a daily mail headline). So I ask if they are happy with WTO arrangement and that’s already berond their knowledge base.
As for Indy and the vow, I’m not convinced it changed minds in the lead up to indyref but I hope it has changed minds now. I do think it would have swayed ‘don’t knows’.
@Big Jock
The week before May 29th 2019 for an Independence Referendum,
or even nearer the cliff edge May 28th 2019 (which is a Thursday),
one last chance to either stay with EU or sink with a toxic extreme Right Wing England/Westminster,
should get us the 6% we need for Independence.
Each and every UK or Scottish national election could be an independence referendum.
But the SNP prefer: you can vote SNP and get the feeble 56 at WM (edit: even feebler 35).
You can vote SNP at Holyrood and get “Not Now” from the UK Govt and a reset indyref timetable from the FM and SNP politicians talking of an indyref postponed indefinitely.
Arse biscuits at 6.616
Aye Richt!
The backshift is on.
Need a MASSIVE turnout for AUOB this Saturday. Power, real power is taken, not given.
Labour already preparing to sell Scotland out in the HoL tonight. We are on our own folks! If we want Indy we have to take it!
Robert Louis at 6.12
You obviously weren’t at the last National Council meeting of the SNP at which the FM mentioned Independence seven times in her speech and ended by saying that Independence was a necessity for Scotland. The media did not report that,of course. That’s their tactic now. Before it was that she was “banging on about it all the time” when she wasn’t.
” also suspect that the fact that the FM is married to the chief executive of the SNP, is part of the problem. (and I would think that even if the sexes were reversed).”
Why? Any sensible reason for this remark.
Peter Murrell was Chief Executive long before Nicola was FM and has for years supervised a huge and steady rise in the SNP. He plays no place in the political decision making of the party but his round the clock support of his wife’s 18 hour a day itinerary allows her to do it.
You have no idea how very important this is obviously.
Time for C Alexander to leave and Rock to come online. why do they bother? It just makes our resolve even more
Independence or Brexit
The level of arrogant incompetence shown by the Tories is such that I have myself wondered more than once if really they are stalling brexit and getting to a point where it is undeliverable. But that thought quickly goes away when you examine in a bit more detail what they are doing.
I am more inclined to believe that they do indeed want brexit but not any brexit. They want a very hard brexit cutting all ties with the EU and I think that is why they are desperately attempting to make it fail.
Taxdodgers only will be free to continue hoarding cash in tax havens if all ties with the EU are broken. The type of ‘freedom’ of trade they appear to be seeking with all countries in the world, including those whose product is not up to EU standards, cannot be done remaining in the customs union or the single market.
The bonfire of regulations the tories are seeking (ie human rights, workers’ rights, environmental regulations, building regulations, health and safety and more importantly, food and drinks) cannot be done within the Single Market or Customs Union.
The only way America First can flood our supermarkets with chlorinated chickens, hormone injected beef, genetically modified produce and other disgusting delicacies is by burning those EU regulations which currently are protecting our produce and stopping those products to reach our supermarket shelves. And we know May is desperately seeking a trade deal with her beloved USA.
A close look at the 24 powers that the tory crooks in England are attempting to steal from the people of Scotland shows that they are targeting exactly the powers that would allow America First’s crap food products unfettered access to our markets and with that ruining our own food industry that will not be able to compete.
The tory crooks are intending to steal also the power related to food labeling, don’t they? Well, what will stop them once in control of the labeling to burn the current EU regulations that demand the full composition of the product and origin to be stated in the package? Nothing.
What about the powers related to environment? Is the intention of the crook tories to revert our ban in fracking, frack the bejesus out of Scotland and then, after burning environment regulations, contaminate our air, water and land and allow the corporations that fracked our land to walk away leaving a mountain of mess behind? The tory crooks have already sold licences to several corporations. Those licences are currently worthless with Scotland’s ban in place. Corporations like INEOS must be lobbying the tories hard to revert that ban.
Let’s be honest. There is no way the English tories would be able to help themselves to those 24 powers should we remained in the EU.
No, REv. I believe that the bulk of tories are brexiteers and besides taxdodging, and an opportunity to implement their toxic neocon ideology, Cameron wanted brexit to win to unify its party. He did everything he could to ensure brexit would win. This is the only thing it makes sense, as 40 years in the EU had not managed to bring the europhobes in his party to heel, therefore another remain win would achieve nothing. He needed to try the opposite strategy: to unify his party under the brexit banner.
To me there are plenty of clues: as much as half of the tory MPs campaigned for brexit during the EU ref and currently it is the brextremists using the revolving door from ERG into the Department to exit the EU who appear to be controlling what the Maybot is doing.
The Leave campaign was engineered by tories and funded by tories – the links of the tories to Cambridge Analytica and Aggregate IQ are disturbing. UKIP looks in everything but in name and colour of rosette as another construct of the tories designed to divide the labour vote and hoover the xenophobic, racist vote without tarnishing the tory party. Conveniently, the tories used UKIP as an excuse to move their policies more to the right and even more conveniently, UKIP implodes just at the very moment the tories need to hoover all the tory vote to survive. How many UKIP councilors donors and others jumped ship back to the tories?
Cameron’s approach to the remain campaign was lukewarm at best and his campaign resourced to project fear even when he saw that this kind of approach almost lost the referendum for unionism in Scotland. Was Cameron stupid? No, I don’t think he was. I think he knew very well what he was doing. His “negotiations” with the EU achieved next to nothing, adding calculated disappointment to his campaign. He denied the vote to the 3 groups that would have turned the result around: the EU citizens (while of course he allowed the Commonwealth citizens to vote), the long term British ex pats (while he did not reciprocate by giving the vote to the long term EU citizens in the UK) and the 16-18. And of course he denied the quadruple lock that would have ensured that the UK would only leave the EU should the 4 nations of the UK voted leave – what smart politician would ditch a secure get out of jail card? Only one that does not really want to get out of jail.
And then there is the timing. Polls in 2010, 2011, 2012 had shown that brexit would win in England. In fact, the pro-brexit vote was going down – had Cameron really wanted remain to win, and he would have waited until at least the end of his mandate. Instead, he rushed to call this referendum and he actually gave a date for it a few days after a poll conducted in Wales showed that Wales had become pro-brexit and from that moment, the vote of NI and Scotland become worthless. Very convenient indeed.
No. I firmly believe the tories are after brexit and they had planned this well before 2015 – if I am not mistaken, yougov started to conduct EU membership polls in 2010, when the tories got into power and already at that point showed that a brexit vote would win. I am of the opinion that we have been conned: both UK wide leave and remain campaigns were leaded by brexiteers. For the record, I don’t believe for a second the flip-floppers Davidson and Mundell to be the remainers they claimed to be either.
I’ve just watched Dr phillipa make it very uncomfortable for health secretary Jeremy Hunt earlier in parliament. While I was watching it the thought occurred to me that he should be called the English health secretary or health secretary of england. Earlier on daily politics Dominic Raab was housing minister, not English housing minister.
Surely time has come give these people their correct titles, and this would go a long way in sorting the confusion of devolved/reserved powers. Just a thought.
Good evening fine People of Scotland ~
NOW is the time… TO MARCH!
Come Saturday.
Glasgow.
@Dave McEwan Hill “but his round the clock support of his wife’s 18 hour a day itinerary allows her to do it”
That’s probably a full tme job, should be anyway.
Scottiedog @ 6.14
In 2014 where I worked was 90% aged 20-40 year old women. Before the “vow” they were positive and upbeat about what might happen in an indy Scotland, but after they heard what was “going” to happen they were scared into an almost unanimous no vote. Will no-one think of the children, how will we get a pension, my mother isn’t going to be looked after, except by staying with our precious, precious union.
Probably worth keeping in mind. UKgov wants and needs Scotgov and or the YES movement to panic. To either delay for too long or move to soon as suits their needs. Probably also worth keeping in mind that Scotgov’s opposition would love nothing better than to drive a wedges between people.
There is a right time for the Scottish government to act, but conditions have to be met. Process, legality and the small matter of word and duty to existing agreements to be fulfilled.
UKgov and their media are currently doing all the heavy lifting. Let them. They’re doing a marvelous job of convincing people just how inept, shambolic and venal they truly are.
Personally, I’d say by all means be eager and vocal in support for independence. Let Scotgov know we’re ready, willing and able. But right now, we need most of all to convince those soft no votes from last time out. To point out what our msm refuse to and to hold out a hand on a daily basis.
Let our government do what government should do. Govern. About now, I’d reckon they don’t need any extra levels of difficulty added to their plate.
The debate on Clause 11 of the Withdrawal Bill just about to start in the HoL.
I can’t find the wording but believe Lords Hope of Craighead and Mackay of Clashfern will propose amendments that mean the Scottish Government must give consent to Westminster before any change to devolved powers can take place.
Can be watched live at the below link on Parliament TV.
https://goo.gl/uykcUz
I don’t take much interest in royal weddings but the upcoming one is unusual because neither of the participants is actually royal. But I’m still having to pay for it. What next? Will I have to pay for Tory councillors’ diversity awareness therapy?
Scottie dog @ 6.14
Thats a really good point…
While I still think personally that the Vow was a big factor,otherwise they wouldn’t have put so much time and energy into it,and committed themselves to devolving some sort of powers!
There might be those who voted No and it wasn’t because of the Vow,but they will now vote Yes because,there WAS a Vow and made it was broken!
The childish responses to my point says it all. No sensible rebuttal.
Maybe the SNP MPs should try “Arse biscuits” at WM debates and PM’s questions. It would achieve as much as their eloquent debate. Nuthin’.
Then the SNP MPs can shout: “Drink! Drink! but with minimum pricing per unit of alcohol”.
Another Labour muck up. Defeated in the Commons. No disclosure of the Windrush May documents. They can’t get anything right. Deliberate?
Westminster used the last minute “vote NO and we will deliver a better deal” tactic in 1979. Lord Home made the promise.
What happened? The Labour government was voted out of office, the Tories under Thatcher were voted in and that was the last we heard of Scotland for a couple of decades. The oil revenues rolled into Westminster.
We can be certain that, whenever there is another referendum, there will be a last minute “vote NO and we will deliver a better deal” promise made.
Perfidious Albion is their very apt nickname. But if we keep falling for that old trick then more fool us.
It is, of course, against the purdah period rules. But the EC does nothing about it. Another factor to keep in mind.
@7.13
Careful now
“Yes! That would be an ecume..Yes!”
Yes to independence.
O/T
BREAKING NEWS: Cambridge Analytica to close.
Cambridge Analytica is to close. Will that be an end to exposing their actions?
So apparently Anas Sarwar is complaining that a report that was he claims was buried has surfaced. He’s demanding that the Minister for Burying Reports should resign. Clearly incompetent!
@Clydebuilt, Tam the Bam:
CA is too valuable to fail, Son of CA will arrive with 666 stamped on his head.
Liz g at 7.08
They didn’t promise devolving any specific powers in the Vow. Read it and see. It was the media that started shouting about promises for extra devolved powers ie a big lie.
It was a desperate last gasp fraud.
Of course Cambridge Analytica have folded, they were found out and are no use now.
Will the investigation into their dubious activity in uk politics continue ?
Aye…sure it will…..!!
Why do you think they have been folded !!!
The “real” problem you have , Robert Louis, is YOU do not want independence and try to spread your pishy mantra on here, but try to be a sleekit wee runt about it.
2 days ago you were not voting SNP because of a 20mph speed limit.
Away ya roaster.
@big jock 4pm
If you think, WITH HINDSIGHT AVAILABLE NOW that an indyref LAST YEAR would have been more successful than NOW (Next 8 months) when the actual shambles of brexit is unfolding before our eyes, then you are indeed, a fucking roaster.
O/T
EU Withdrawal Bill: House of Lords
What a contemptible scrote Malcolm Bruce is….” Support for the UK is greater in Scotland now than it has ever been”…..one humungous lie!
Classy Geeo very Classy!
https://ca-commercial.com/news/cambridge-analytica-and-scl-elections-commence-insolvency-proceedings-and-release-results-3
Discuss.
JEEZ!!!
There’s some long-term Wingers takkin’ the huff wie each ithir coz thi dinnae agree wie a particular point of argument.
C’mon – slow and steady will win our independence; the pieces are falling into place. Nae need to be ‘black-affronted’.
Show ’em who’s boss on Saturday.
We, the grassroots, are the boss.
Faa’s like us? Naebdee – an’ they’re a’ deid.
What a farce, Clause 11 as amended by the tories is “perfectly fine and in order” acording to the Labour Spokesman Lord Griffiths…!!
Tosser.
Brian I don’t tolerate direct insults. It’s not a falling out over ideas! Geeo needs to stop being abusive. That’s a whole different spectrum to disagreeing.I never insult people even Rock!
@BDTT
We all just need a hug.
*hugs*
I’m stuck on the notion that Brexit is part of a process on the internal enlargement of the EU because the UK is leaving the EU in March 2019, and remaining in the EU until December 2020.
I made a similar post yesterday to the one the Rev posted today and a certain “K1” was trying to contradict it in a very abusive way.
In the end she was saying things that had absolutely nothing to do with my original post.
I only mentioned this because the language of the poster called “geeo” is completely out of order towards other posters on here.
I came on to Wings about 15 mins ago and the last two posts by this “geeo” calling two different posters “Roasters”.
My point being that “K1” and “geeo” need to “Cool their Jets”.
You wouldn’t talk to people in the street like that, so don’t talk to people on here like that.
Thanks Robin?
Oh dry your tears Robin.
You are just another grievance monkey.
Stop posting utter driver and i will happily not call you out on it.
As it stands, you ARE a pair of roasters.
Is it no ‘Big Theresa’s Plan’ ?
Lord Keen of Elie—tory — yes who? in the House of Lords now. This is not a power grab! We need 24 powers to maintain an internal market.
What drivel. They want the powers to weaken food standards so trumps chlorinated chickens, GM food and the like can access our markets and to hell with our agriculture and fisheries.
Yip House of Lords unelected not returning power to the people from Europe.
Lord Anabelle of Goldie hasn’t worn well unelected but nice wee earner,
Shyster tories at their worst. England holds a veto and this is ok.
Correct, Hamish 100.
WM needs those powers to sell out uk industry and food standards, just to get a trade deal with Orange Hitler.
Not seeing too many Peers standing up for Devolution here.
BBC having a laugh the third party at Westminster, whose leader and other SNP MPs such as Joanna Cherry have been more effective at challenging Theresa May, are not on Question Time tomorrow evening.
If you exclude the last visit to Scotland, when even the BBC can’t ignore the SNP, that will be one panellist out of the last 100 (and even that was on an end of term young peoples edition) in the last 20 episodes.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Question_Time_episodes
Perhaps someone should update Wikipedia’s understanding of the format.
“Question Time began with a panel of four guests, usually one member from each of the three major parties (Conservatives, Labour and Liberal Democrats) and another public figure, for example non-governmental organisation directors, newspaper columnists, or religious leaders. In 1998, the panel was enlarged to five, with another non-partisan member or leading member of a fourth political party joining the panel. “
There is only one battle we have to win. We have to establish the fact that Scotland is comfortably self sufficient (and, in fact, much more self sufficient than England). When we do so we win a referendum. Our enemy know this so most of the unionist campaign is an attack on our viability.
(Note I said “establish” – not “prove”). Once we have established in the minds of a majority of our people that we are viable and self sufficient we can then start to introduce to them the options of what a new independent Scotland can do. Then they are confident that we have the means to deliver.
We establish the confidence of our people in our viability not by getting drawn into arguing about figures and deficits thrown at us by our opponents. Millions and billions tossed about have no positive effect for us and merely turns the unconvinced off. These figures are best dismissed as dubious figures of a Scotland trapped in a bust UK economy. They provide absolutely no argument in favour of the constitutional position we are in. That we are an economic basket case? Are these a “union dividend”? Don’t even engage in the argument.
We establish our viability by comparing our GNP and GDP etc with other similar small countries and comparing what they achieve with what they’ve got.
We establish that we are self-sufficient in water, power and feeding ourselves.
We remind our people that we are as clever as any other nation with a history of innovation, discovery and invention second to none
We establish that the argument that we are too poor and too stupid to run our own country is an insult – which it assuredly is.
We use respected public figures to articulate all these points.
And we remind everybody that the UK has a national debt of nearly £2,000,000,000,000 and the notion that they are hanging onto Scotland to subsidise us in this context is a nonsense. The opposite is the demonstrably the case. We are an asset on the UK’s books.
It is unwise to suggest that those who don’t understand are stupid. Most importantly establish firmly that “well informed “ people know we are entirely viable and they support independence. That is much more effective in persuading the doubters than arguing about disputed figures.
This got kinda out of hand. Much longer than I meant.
@Robin says: “I made a similar post yesterday to the one the Rev posted today and a certain “K1” was trying to contradict it in a very abusive way. ”
K1 was not abusive at all towards you, if anything it was the other way around. I just re-read the exchange to make sure.
geeo
“Stop posting utter driver and i will happily not call you out on it.”
geeo, I don’t think you have ever “called me out” on anything. This is the first time I have engaged with you.
You are acting like the pub drunk, taking wild swings at anybody who comes near you.
I accused “K1” of “playing to the gallery” yesterday, you look as if you are also “playing to the gallery”.
It is not tough calling somebody on here a “Roaster” and as I said, if you wouldn’t do it out in the street, then don’t do it on here.
Cool yer jets wee man !!!
The usurpation of the EU powers aren’t just about lowering food standards. They’re also about the UK being able to guarantee any deal they make will be honoured by Holyrood due to the reality that the minute the UK is no longer an EU member those powers are theirs.
That said Clause 11 is an insulting sham. It depends on how you define legistating. If it’s the complete process from motion to passing of laws then Holyrood would be bereft of common sense to consent to legislation it hasn’t seen in its final form.
Westminster is perfectly capable of creating legislation and presenting it for approval by Holyrood. The same as in theory the Queen could refuse Assent as her prerogative. Which is where things get even more fun as the First Minister gets to advise her in the use of Royal Prerogative as far as devolved powers go. I suspect doing so with a majority of MSPs backing her might be persuasive.
Just as Cameron bottled it when faced with an unsanctioned, by Westminster, expression of the Sovereignty of Scotland they might want to avoid finding out whether the First Minister has a veto or the potential to spark a constitutional crisis or not.
The beauty of the way it’s written is that it’s not just laws passed by Holyrood that the FM can veto it’s any that require Royal Assent.
Plan B is withhold the Great Seal without which no law can be passed into Scots Law.
Hunt should resign.
@Orri
Exactly, And who has the Great Seal in her safe-keeping, and legal keeping? Yup, the First Minister.
They could of course pass it into UK Law, whatever that means.
I don’t know this Geeo guy from Adam. He seems to be very angry at a few people on here. I am not entirely sure he understands respectful debate.
When you have to insult people you have already lost the argument. You are playing the man not the ball. Leave that to the MSM or Daily Mail. I thought we were better than this!
No-one has a crystal ball so no-one has a monopoly on being right. My opinion might turn out to be wrong ,but it’s as valid as anyone else’s on here. I have been in the SNP for 30 years. I have been posting on here since it started. I think it’s the first time I have had to deal with actual abuse on here.
Geeo you need to stop with the aggression and insults it’s mindless.
From the House of Commons Library (https://t.co/RRxpKay5Fs), we have got a figure for the no of Labour party members in Scotland.
It gives the UK membership at 550,000 and states the membership in Scotland is 5% of the total, which gives a number of about 27,500 (range 25-30,000).
The full report is http://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/SN05125/SN05125.pdf
“In the past year, as the head of the most demonstrably, spectactularly incompetent UK government in all of history, May has seen her personal ratings as “best option for PM” versus Jeremy Corbyn INCREASE significantly. From behind or level pegging a year ago, she now leads by between 10 and 14 points in recent polling.”
I predict that if there is another “snap” Westminster election, the SNP will lose more than half of the seats they currently hold.
I challenge the clueless pompous armchair pundits posting here to predict how many seats the SNP would get if Ken500’s months old prediction of Saint Theresa going finally comes true and there is another “snap” Westminster election.
May will go for soft brexit but still try and rip scotland off. But that approach blows the lid off a Scottish hard customs border and there’s no way Snp will roll back on Devo powers. So it’s game on. And Indy to win.
Big Jock says:
2 May, 2018 at 9:25 pm
“I never insult people even Rock!”
“Even Rock”?
I hope you are enjoying the experience of finding out who the really nasty posters are on this blog.
I saw through them a long time ago.
Well that HoL “debate” on clause 11 of the withdrawal bill was a complete waste of time and just a pretence of going through the motions that all the details are being scrutinised.
Lord Wigley (Plaid Cymru) was best of the lot. The two Scots withdrew all their amendments so there was no vote on them. Just as Brian Taylor predicted in his article BBC yesterday.
Surprised! No not really, same same.
There is no internal market. Just a raid on Scottish resources. Higher taxes on Scotland. 40% Oil tax. Fracking gas in the rest of the UK is tax free. Taking £Billions out of Scotland. Higher fuel and energy costs in Scotland. Despite being surplus in fuel and energy and nearer the source, because it is colder. i.e. Higher costs. Illegal wars, financial fraud and tax evasion costs Scotland £Billion. Hinkley Point, HS2 and Trident costs Scotland £Billions.
Scotland exports more to the EU £15Billion. and receives more Grants and investment. Renewable and CCS blocked by the Westminster Treasury. £5Billion? to the rest of the world. £10Billion? to the rest of the UK. With no Oil & Gas exports. Scotland does not have a balance of payments deficit like the rest of the UK. Massive.
Big Jock at 1021pm,
I think the character you mention knows exactly what he is trying to achieve on here. Best ignored.
Ok wise words Robert!
Oh dear, the 2 roasters still talking trash.
I would have ZERO issue with telling anyone to their face they are roasters.
What they did with that would up to them.
Robin, you were talking out your hole as usual, and you are now encouraging a rammy, with big joke as your “wingman’.
Do yourself a favour, fuck off.
I asked nice.
I have no intention of responding further to you 2 roasters, i suggest you 2 do likewise.
Clear ?
Thepnr @ 10.36
Aye and I counted 3 that claimed we would be skint if we left?
WTAF… I think some of them really believe this.
Also..
The Lord Ian Guy (spawn of Thatcher) really tryin to insult the First Minister, playin at being Trump,or else sumbidy should tell him tae stoap tryin tae be a UK journalist,he is as shit at it as the Buird!
Actually tryin to give the SNP in tae “trouble” because they are not joining the Lord’s and don’t have the “privilege” of unionsplaning ,their position.
Twilight zone disnay quite say it really!!
Rudd gone. Protecting May. Tories predicted to lose over 200 seats in council elections. May would be gone but Labour is useless. Mucked up again on getting May’s Home Office record documents. Deliberate? They were not even in the chamber. NHS in England another mucked up. People have died. Hunt should resign. The only opposition in Westminster is the SNP.
The last time that happened. The SNP won 50% of the vote. The only time that has happened in the UK. Where the seats were contested. If people get out and vote.
What a Tory unionist mess. It is just a matter of time as the young ones come on line. The elderly are being killed off by the Tories in the rest of the UK. Cuts to the NHS. The Tories are killing off their supporters. Illegally deporting folk. The average member male and over seventy,
Dave McEwan Hill at 635pm,
The point I was making, is that no matter when (or if) a referendum is called, the SNP need to be pushing the idea in every interview, live, recorded or written right now. I am well aware the media often do not report such things, but I have seen too many live interviews where it was an open goal, but nothing regarding independence was said. It is all very well the FM talking about indy within the SNP, but it needs to start becoming part of the political narrative.
Talk about independence has been cleverly manipulated by unionists and their media puppets into merely a discussion of ‘having a referendum’. As a consequence, their is virtually zero impetus coming from either the Scots gov or the SNP to push for independence. In short, outside of places such as this, nobody is talking about independence.
If the calibre of YES supporter turning up at the Rally at the weekend is anything like the two abusive thugs “K1” and “geeo”, then I think I will give the Rally a miss.
Nice one guys, you really do have a way with words, don’t you?
The MSM in Scotland seem to be stuck in a permanent spin cycle:
SNHS is rubbish
Police Scotland is rubbish
Baby box is rubbish
Education is rubbish
Why isn’t SNP fixing reserved issue
Isn’t Ruth wonderful
Rinse and repeat monthly.
Hey… Mon you guy’s …. I’ve just spent hours listening to the HOL
A wee bit traumatised here..
Need all my peeps to be getting along for sanity “S” sake.aye
All on the same side are we no!
For those bored with tonight’s trolling wars –
here’s an example of just how low the Tories are willing to go when it comes to political limbo dancing.
http://archive.is/6Tn6T
There’s now a headline in the National about Scottish Square sausage being rebranded as British with a butchers apron. I kid you not!
O/T
Harking back to an earlier thread, but putting it here so that more people see it, I rather like this:
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DcOKpDuWsAUj0sO.jpg
geeo
“Playin’ to the gallery”
“Look at me guys”
“Look at how I am making a complete arse of myself”
geeo, keyboard warrior.
Halfwits like you are ten a penny on the net wee man.
Robin @ 10.58
Em.. You mean the – March – Robin surely?
Anyhoo that’s no fair.. The only reason not to come is if you can’t depend on your own behaviour.
These Events are family occasions and everyone knows that,have ye no been before?
geeo has ruined any chance we had of having a debate tonight.
Big round of applause for the “Site Thug” everybody.
Well done geeo.
Apparently Cambridge Analytica have morphed into Emerdata.
Did anyone catch the R3 item c 10.45 for 15 mins? Karen Polworth recalling her grandpa Peter Quinn at the end of his life in Craigie, Ayrshire. Music from Dick Gaughan’s Handful of Earth, especially Craigie Hill. A wee gem. It will be on the iPlayer if you have access.
This followed a discussion on Karl Marx. R3 seems to be off message tonight.
Liz g butts in
What do you mean, “have I not been before???”
I have been to every Indy Rallies since they started.
Why are you butting in ???
Big Jock @ 11.02
Disappointed but no surprised…
Let me tell ye this though… IF they ever started to call a Roll oan Beefham a Steak Sandwich …. I predict a riot!
liz g mind your own fuckin business.
There was no need what so ever for you to make that post.
Unless you are also “geeo”
or are you two an “item”
@Liz g
Never before have I watched/listened to an HoL debate before. It was reasonably interesting or I wouldn’t have stuck with it. For example I never knew that the FM had written to the Lords Speaker (never heard of them either) and that’s basically why the rejection of Clause 11 was even raised tonight.
Some sense of fairness no doubt as in “we’ve given you a fair hearing now Feck Off”. Also listening to all the auld buggers from the Tory and Liberal parties who at one time represented Scotland was interesting. What a mindset that lot have, interestingly I don’t remember a single Scottish Labour lord with a word to say.
Who cares now, we might just ahve our day in the Supreme Court. No way can I see the Scottish Government agreeing this Clause 11. So let’s have this fight, could be fun.
Mike Russell has indicated we will know by mid May if its deal or no deal. At least at that stage we can move on from this painful waiting game. As long as clause 11 remains,then there is no deal.
@liz g
I can name 2 on here NOT “on the same side”.
Note who has stopped engaging, and who is continuing in the vain hope of further reaction…
Roasters indeed.
I will miss the March, sadly, as i will be in Hungary. It will absolutely be a festival of fun. As always.
Wonder if Hungarian news report on it!
Robin @ 11.12
Oh …. I was just curious as to why you would think that you couldn’t attend one of our Marches because you were scared of “thugs”?
And also why you would call a Marches a Rally ?
Is that a problem?
Be honest!
@ Capella
Did the programme claim Craigie Hill was about the place in Ayrshire?
It’s a brilliant song, but it’s Northern Irish. Dick Gaughan learnt it from Paddy Tunney, who got it from his mother who was from Donegal. The hill itself is possibly near Larne (see here: https://thesession.org/discussions/23580).
We’ve really gone O/T now!
Robin @ 11.15
At least give me the time to answer one post before you fire off another …. It’s only fair,otherwise we would be like Westminster and we don’t want that, do we?
Anyhoo,if you want a private/exclusive conversation,this is mibbi no the best place Robin!
Have ye no been here long either?
The three “Site Thugs” are:
geeo
Liz g
K1
They really know how to close down a debate.
With their threats, intimidation and abusive posts, they drag Wings into the gutter.
I am too long in the tooth for all this nonsense about who is a troll and who isn’t. Anyway I think the majority on here will testify to my credentials. Think that’s the last comment from me on this subject.
Liz g
March/Rally.
I don’t want to get the jail for rolling about the street with some thug from Wings.
So, as I said, I think I will give this “RALLY” a miss.
If that is alright with you???
Got to love these roasters, liz g.
1. Post divisive slobbers.
2. Get called out on it.
3. Play the victim of the “bad man”.
4. Get no takers.
5. Tries playing wee timid victim, worried about “thugs” !
6. Triggered into abusive rant against a woman for her having the temerity to correct him.
7. Looks like the complete roaster he was initially called, Correctly, as it transpired).
………
One more for the “ignore” list.
@liz g.
I believe, going by his last comment, that “robin” is an incarnation of that ‘Crackerjack’ clownshoe.
Thepnr @ 11.16
I’ve seen a few,… Cause I’m quite sad that way…
But I agree,the answer to “this” issue doesn’t lie with the Lord’s!
Or the Supreme Court.
They can bugger about with all sorts of solutions.. But in the end – There can be only ONE –
And, quite an elegant one at that if, I may say so!
geeo/Liz g
The two “Site Thugs” working in tandem.
The “Bonnie & Clyde” of Wings.
Well done you two for shutting down any chance anybody had of having a debate about Scottish Independence.
Am waitin’ on K1 appearing from the darkness.
She will no doubt chip in her tuppence worth with her usual colourful language.
Jeremy Hunt has launched an independent inquiry into breast cancer screening in England, amid fears up to 270 women may have died earlier because of a 2009 computer error that caused 450,000 women to miss crucial screenings.
That Idiot and continued Tory NHS Cuts and privatisation has killed thousands in England.
Every week we hear of needless deaths due to lack of Ambulances, Beds, Doctors, Nurses, in England.
Hunt should be called the Undertaker in Chief NHS England.
Clowns on here dare to attack our Scottish Health Minister???
@Robin
Better add me too that little list because your posts are getting right on my tits and inflaming other people. Your an out and out shit stirrer and have been since when you first posted. About what? A week ago.
You do learn quick I’ll give you that, posting for 5 minutes yet describing K1 as a “she” how did you know that?
Who really cares all I care about is that I’m pissed of with this bickering and it’s you who are most guilty of keeping it going.
Robin @ @11.30
If you think that you would finish up rolling around in the street Robin..
Its more than ok with me,in fact,I would strenuously recommend you didn’t come…. Please think not only of the Children,but also of the attending dugs (of whom there are many) they pay with their life’s for any violence,let’s not risk setting them a bad example!
@ Crazycat – she knew the song was Irish. Her gpa was a Quinn from an Irish family who came east rather than sail off to America. But it reminds her of him as he ended his life in Craigie in Ayrshire. It was a lovely wee essay on our mixed heritage.
BTW I liked the Matt cartoon you linked to. I think Matt is a great cartoonist, pity he works for the Telegraph.
Looking at the Guardian I see that Severin has decided to jump the shark wearing a pink tutu and Doc Martins this time. I suppose variety is the spice of life because the propaganda never changes.
@HandandShrimp
Link would be nice 🙂
Dave McEwan Hill @ 21:52,
Spot on there. (We may not agree 100% about the currency thing, but we certainly do about this.)
I believe the way to do it is to make a series of comparisons of Scotland with other European small countries by some experienced and trustworthy economist. (Not that usual establishment thinktank pish.)
To demonstrate by example without getting bogged down in the minutiae as the scaremongers wish. (And which the BBC in particular just loves to dwell upon to the virtual exclusion of everything else.)
Could be a Wee Gold Book…? =grin=
And/or a video series from Phantom Power, for example. Including vox-pops asking people in those countries if they would agree to give up their sovereignty to their nearest big neighbour. You can just imagine the responses…!
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2018/may/02/cot-death-expert-raises-concerns-over-scotlands-cardboard-baby-boxes
There you go. Not an archive as I haven’t mastered that skilz.
@Thomas Widmann says: 2 May, 2018 at 1:56 pm:
“As far as I can see, there are three possible secret plans in TM’s drawer”:=
So that’s why she is standing that way in the photo – if she’s keeping things in her drawers.
I’ll get my coat.
Robin @ 23:15,
You seem to be labouring under a misapprehension. This is a public forum, not a private conversation, so if you say anything “interesting”, like picking a fight with a perfectly sensible and clearly emollient debater like K1, then anyone and everyone is likely to pile in.
Like Liz. Like others since. Like me now.
(Besides, you ought to have more respect for Liz, since she is going to be Scotland’s first President. You heard it here first. =grin=)
@ Handandshrimp – hey – nothing wrong with pink tutus. I bet Severin looks lovely in it. Ballet pumps would be more graceful though – with points.
Peeps, ignore the trolls. Watch out for false flag, keep the narrative postitive, share ideas and info here and on social media, don’t be distracted. Independence is the way to take Scotland into the 21st century, anything else and it’s going backwards. Life affirming, forward looking, internationalism, it’s the most powerful weapon.
Do not allow the Britnats to control the narrative, silence them, do not give them a voice, here or anywhere. The state run media, ie Britnats, have all of the levers of power and money at their disposal. It’s proving tough for them, keep it that way, and more.
Let’s not make it easy for the British nationalists, give em an inch they take a few kilometres. Leave them to it, because their lies and scheming are being exposed, much to their annoyance. what goes round comes round, eh, Britnats!
Deary me and helpma boab Robin is obviously aBrigade petty officer (sic).Laugh?I nearly had an accident.
Robert J Sutherland @ 12.06
LOL…. You are a tonic Robert, really you are!
Thanks for bringing us back down to earth. X
Love the ‘purity wars’ phrase, epitomises the ‘far’ left propensity for painting themselves into a ‘holier than thou’ corner, but Theresa May as a remainer? Was that tongue in cheek?
There could scarcely have been a more anti-EU or anti-ECHR politician until her annointment as UK PM took place.
Now it’s the time of night that I was used to seeing him post!
Big Phil… Where have you been man?
I missed meeting you the last time at the Green.
Hope you are doing ok?
Will you be there on Saturday?
@ Capella
Thanks for the explanation. I like Dolores Keane’s version of the song, which is in the link I posted. But then I like Dolores Keane’s version of just about anything.
As for Matt – it seems not everyone is a fan: https://www.thepoke.co.uk/2018/03/09/telegraph-cartoonist-matt-earns-650000-year-internet-going-bonkers/
though I did wonder when I first read that article whether the whole thing was a wind-up.
Firstly I’d like to apologise to everyone for this long post.
This is my last reply to you Robin. Never address me again on any thread on Wings.
You wrote this on this thread @ 9.32pm:
‘I made a similar post yesterday to the one the Rev posted today and a certain “K1” was trying to contradict it in a very abusive way.
In the end she was saying things that had absolutely nothing to do with my original post.’
Here is our entire exchange. You have accused me of something that is patently untrue.
Again, I repeat never address me again. I will not be part of this game you are playing on here.
Robin says: 1st May 12.47pm
Re: Brexit.
The thought of the UK being out of the EU without any deal is not far off becoming a reality.
With the Exit Bill being £39 Billion and rising and also continued payments for the Transition Period to be paid, there is now a strong possibility that the UK could exit the EU on 29th March 2019 without having to pay out these Billions.
Throw in the Irish Border Conundrum and an Exit from the EU could be upon us before we know it.
So, does Nicola Sturgeon go for IndyRef2 BEFORE 29th March 2019 or AFTER 29th March 2019?
We also need to remember that a two year Transition Period was to run the day after we voted for Independence from the UK.
And then we need to apply for membership of either the EU or EFTA.
So there is a lot to be squeezed into such a tight timeline.
But if anyone can pull it off, it is Nicola Sturgeon and her Government.
K1 says: 1st May 12.57pm
Robin, the UK still has to pay for the EU exit, nothing to do with whether the deal falls through or not, this has already been widely reported and confirmed over the past few months from many sources, here’s the Independent doing just that in Dec last year:
http://archive.is/yUTfg
They don’t get to ‘walk away’ ‘without having to pay out these Billions’. That’s a fact.
Robin says: 1 May, 2018 at 1:13 pm
K1
The Exit Bill might or might not get paid, that is up to a future English Government.
My main point of the post 12.47pm was that we could be out of the EU before the majority of Scots realise what is happening.
How do we approach IndyRef2 and the other problems that will arise from losing our EU Citizenship.
Because from listening to the mood music coming out of the EU, they are increasingly becoming more pissed off by the attitude of the UK/English Brexit negotiators.
K1 says: 1st May 1.23pm
Given that we voted 62% to remain in the EU, I’ve a strong sense that the majority of Scots who tuned in enough to give us this overwhelming majority are engaged sufficiently to be aware of the current shenanigans going down wrt the UKexit shambles Robin.
Our government has prepared us well for these very events, the continuity bill is a direct and necessary response, we have the indyref2 mandate in the bag from 2 years ago…the SNP gov are on top of this…we will await their timing for pulling the trigger.
All we can do is what we all continue to do…on here and out there in the world, keep each other informed, keep the talking points and the facts front and centre, in other words it’s up to each of us to keep our friends, families and neighbours awake to the realities unfolding.
No one is going to do it for us. To that end, get the message out there, wrt the big march on Saturday, I’ve got some flyers that I didn’t know existed and will be spreading these around over the next few days…
That’s how we let our fellow Scots ‘see’ and ‘know’ that we ‘realise’ what is going on even if many are still caught in the everyday struggles of surviving and have very little time to digest the intricacies of what is involved.
Scotland is under severe threat as a nation. We must all play our part to ensure that we carry those who cannot as yet see the writing on the wall.
Robin says: 1st May 2.07pm
K1
Keeeeeeeezzzzzzzzzzzz!!!!
I am on your side,, I am putting forward an outcome that could be upon us in less than a years time.
I still believe the majority of Scots are sleepwalking into an EU Exit that could happen as soon as 29th March next year.
We are at the mercy of an English Tory Government who doesn’t know what they want never mind anybody else knowing what they want.
These are uncertain times we are entering. And if there is a quick EU exit then we could be looking at a snap Independence Referendum being called.
Things may become a bit clearer by next month. The EU are wanting the UK Government to put forward their FINAL plans for Brexit, including the Irish Border.
The EU have said that if they can’t come to an agreement on that then they would pull the plug on the Transition Deal.
K1 says: 1st May 5.00pm
It’s a ‘scenario’ Robin, one that may or may not happen?
I’m merely pointing out, that for the most part everyone does know the score. You’re literally coming on shouting ‘fire! fire!’ as if that is somehow helpful on a site whose main btl commenters and lurkers, who are extremely aware of the situation are somehow ‘not’ aware’ of the situation?
The part you obviously failed to see in my post, was a mere suggestion that it is us ourselves who have to keep others less aware informed on the current threat we are under?
So I have no idea what your opening salvo is wrt what I had actually written in response to your original post? Nothing to do with sides, Robin, we are commenters on this site and as such are fee to respond to others comments. There was nothing in my response to yours that indicated I had an issue with the situation you are outlining, but there was a ‘inference’ that ‘panicky’ rhetoric is hardly helpful, is it?
Best we maintain focus on what we can do to encourage those not already awake to the threat Scotland faces, to ensure we get those voters on board for indyref2
Robin says: 1st May 5.33pm
K1
Why are you so confrontational???
You are making me out to be some kind of sreamin skull panic merchant.
I am saying that we could be out of the EU by as early as 29th March 2019.
And I stand by my opinion that the majority of Scots haven’t got a clue that that is coming down the line.
So please don’t make me out to be some kind snowflake who doesn’t leave the house on Fireworks night.
You may be informed, the majority of Scots won’t have a clue about what you are talking about if you asked them what is going to happen on the 29th March next year.
They are just not interested at the moment. I don’t know of anybody who reads Wings except the usual punters.
The point I am making is that Nicola may have to call a snap Indy Ref if the Brexit talks break down.
With all the issues that would bring with it.
K1 says: 1st May 6.14pm
‘Why are you so confrontational???’
Eh?
Robin, no need to be so defensive, I’m just responding to your points wrt to UKexit.
I don’t agree that a ‘majority’s of Scots’ are not aware that the date is March next year.
Given Rev’s stats in terms of site views, there’s literally hundreds of thousands of people reading this site, so no matter how many people we ‘know’ don’t read it, it’s hardly a measure to rely on in determining how ill or in formed people are wrt to UKexit date and the ramifications if Clause 11 isn’t dealt with, especially prior to that date?
As I mentioned earlier in response to your previous post 62% of people voted to remain in the EU, this is a majority Robin, following on from that vote our parliament ensured indyref2 was mandated and on the cards…the ‘not right now’ from May and WM followed then the ‘snap’ GE17. Which created a much needed distraction for WM wrt Scotland’s position, which they now cannot ignore.
The Scottish continuity bill was passed last month and as you know the UKSC may now challenge that. So there is much more to happen before that exit date.
The simple and non confrontational point I was making is that we as voters and indy supporters must keep doing what we are doing to inform those who we know are less informed. That was all I was stating. There is little else to to do but wait and see how this pans out and if indeed Nicola, having exhausted all avenues to ensure our voice is heard and our polity not dragged out against our will, then and only then will she call indyref2.
It certainly won’t be a ‘snap’ indyref, as it’s been cooking for that last 2 years, again we’ll all just have to wait and see and keep on campaigning for independence right up to and beyond the starting gun. Then the real campaign begins and we have a much greater chance this time than the last.
Hope that clarifies where I’m coming from Robin.
Robin says: 1 May 6:45 pm
K1
You have drifted so far off my original post that I don’t even recognise the argument you are having with me.
I hope you are not “Playing to the audience” K1 ???, A kind of “look at me guys”
My original post:
Robin says: 1 May 12:47 pm
Re: Brexit.
The thought of the UK being out of the EU without any deal is not far off becoming a reality.
With the Exit Bill being £39 Billion and rising and also continued payments for the Transition Period to be paid, there is now a strong possibility that the UK could exit the EU on 29th March 2019 without having to pay out these Billions.
Throw in the Irish Border Conundrum and an Exit from the EU could be upon us before we know it.
So, does Nicola Sturgeon go for IndyRef2 BEFORE 29th March 2019 or AFTER 29th March 2019?
We also need to remember that a two year Transition Period was to run the day after we voted for Independence from the UK.
And then we need to apply for membership of either the EU or EFTA.
So there is a lot to be squeezed into such a tight timeline.
But if anyone can pull it off, it is Nicola Sturgeon and her Government.
END
K1 says: 1st May 10.24pm
‘But if anyone can pull it off, it is Nicola Sturgeon and her Government.’
Then there really is no need to be concerned is there Robin?
K1 @ 01:23,
Not to worry. He played the grievance card when he couldn’t sustain a debate. Maybe another intrusion to disrupt and discourage regulars, or maybe just a tad too thin-skinned for open debate in such a forum.
It wasn’t as if you were nasty to him anyway. He has evidently never encountered you in full affronted mode (which is a sight to truly behold and enjoy!) =laugh=
He wasn’t too pleasant to some of the others, so can hand it out easily enough himself, it seems.
🙂 RobertJ
K1 @1.23
Aye .. I remember the exchange.
I’m with ye on the not engaging anymore.
The inability to distinguish between “The English “ as a people, and the “English “ as the Westminster establishment, indicated to me,that mibbi he/she or it was a low information voter..
Who really just ment “The Establishment “!
So I thought that we should probably give “Robin “ the benefit of the doubt?
But in sparking an exchange,.. turns out that Robin can be pretty sharp!
Therefore it’s difficult to believe that “Robin “ cannot distinguish between “The English “ and the “English Government “… Therefore I cannot hold any more conversations with a (in my not so humble opinion) proven bigot
This hatred is so not the point…
We just want Good Government
@Liz g
Yes, I met Big Phil just the once, I’ve been too busy since. Hope he’s all right, really nice guy. For the rest of it looks like kinters / crackerjack is back.
Test!
@Liz g
I met Big Phil just the once, I’ve been too busy since. Hope he’s OK, really nice guy.
@K1
Looks like kinte*rs / cr*ckerj*ck is back.
Maria F great post upthread ,
I agree with everyone highlighting the MANY issues in relation to the POWER GRAB food standards etc , but I think what is more concerning and will have a more personal effect on individuals is the massively detrimental impact of the privatisation of the SNHS which is decimating the english NHS, the overthrowing of the FRACKING BAN introduced by our SG , which is being implemented in england by force and which is catastrophically contaminating the drinking water in america and elsewhere .
Also our Scottish Water which will be privatised by the tories to benefit their buddies , ALL these things are more impactful to parents , their children and grandparents this is where the REAL HORROR of the POWER GRAB lays , this should be at the front and foremost of our exposure this is the real fear factor
You really have to wonder if the Herald even reads itself. At at time when Brent Crude is at a high – $73.7 a barrel – the highest since Nov 2014 (click down and select 1 month rather than the default 1 hour) and it costs less than half the price per barrel to extract (down from $30 per barrel in 2014)
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/MarketCharts/brent.php
and the Herald itself is reporting (Tom Gordon no less):
“Scottish GDP uplift as oil revenues back in the black”
“The latest quarterly accounts for the last quarter of 2017 showed GDP grew by 3.4 per cent in cash terms over the calendar year, the fastest rate of growth since 2013.”
this is “Camley’s Cartoon”
http://archive.is/ZyFKU
Good grief.
Worth reading this and linking to it, and getting it up the Herald’s “most popular / most commented” list. Ignoring the rubbish from our Murdo. The actual article is well down the main page.
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/16200339.Scottish_GDP_uplift_as_oil_revenues_back_in_the_black/
Interesting. If that onshore GDP is £152 billion, so oil makes a difference of £13 bn GDP, a quick and dirty comparison with GERS 2011-12 where the difference was £28 billion and difference in deficit was £10.6 bn, would make the difference in deficit now £4.9 bn. As opposed to nearly nothing last year.
But it’s not our oil …
Corrected figures – The National has them correctly, and I did the 2011-12 figures more accurately.
Onshore GDP £152.1 billion, so oil makes a difference of £13.3 bn GDP, a quick and dirty comparison with GERS 2011-12 where the difference was £27.3 billion and difference in deficit was £10.6 bn, would make the difference in deficit now £5.2 bn. As opposed to nearly nothing last year (£0.2 bn). A drop of £5 billion just on oil.
Now THAT’S not going to please the Unionists!
Theresa’s Big Plan…
SevCA 🙂
The Oil sector would not have gone down. If the Tories were not taxing it at 40%+ since Jan 2016. More before that, Taxing it at 62% when the price had fallen 75%. The Tories total mismanagement. A higher price puts up the price of other commodities. Puts up the cost of living. There are more credible alternatives that can be invested in. Westminster has taken £Billions from Scotland and lied about it. Lost thousands of jobs in Scotland. GDP figures up in Scotland. Brexit still a threat.
Another day. Another Westminster mismanagement. NHS in England in crisis. Hunt should resign. Labour etc are no better, Lying sychopaths. The Tories voted down closing tax evasion loops in Scotland. Spite. Tories had to concede on tax evasion ownership hidden in the UK. Same old, same old.
Roll on Independence. Council elections in the rest of the UK. March in Glasgow Saturday.
Jeezo, folks, Stop feeding the f****** trolls. They want you to respond, they want you to argue, they want to make you annoyed and have endless inane arguments about who said what and when.
FFS.
yesindyref2 at 518am,
Poor wee Scotland, discovered oil and got poorer. Honestly, the blatant poor media coverage of Scotland’s oil industry is criminal. When it’s bad news we have wall to wall coverage telling us how Scotland’s economy will suffer (despite all the revenue going direct to London). When the oil price rises, we are told that the price of oil is too volatile, and would de-stabilise an independent Scottish economy – and besides it will all run out in just a few days (probably).
Heaven Knows how Norway (with a similar population to Scotland) copes with all its oil wealth, especially since they don’t have England to
‘look after’steal it from them.Live Norwegian oil fund value : https://www.nbim.no
Read it and weep at what Scotland could have been, if we were not shackled to thieving England – who, despite stealing Scotland’s oil wealth still have the audacity to call us ‘subsidy junkies’.
OT watching Alex Salmond with a magnificent American – the man is speaking of the media being taken over and deciding what you view.
He has just said that in the 60’s you could see Malcolm X on telly – now the sanitised only allowed.
OT @ crazycat – just listened to the Dolores Keane version of Craigie Hill you linked to. It is very good with a strong Irish style.
Here’s a link to the Karine Polwart essay on same song sung by Dick Gaughan on R3. You don’t need to go through iPlayer. 15 mins
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0b0x6m2
@ crazycat again! – in fact, harking back to the discussion on Gaelic, Craig is the Gaelic for a hill. So the song title is an anglified one sayng Hill Hill.
Which is quite a common feature of the landscape, geographic and linguistic.
Perhaps the equivalent of tweets is required for the comments on these threads to make them manageable when reading.
Obviously longer than a tweet but with a set character length.
I understand some comments are simply intended to disrupt the thread but at least it wouldn’t require pages of scrolling down.
Just as a matter of interest oil prices did not go above $50 per barrel until 2006. Today’s price or about $75 (and rising)is very high.
RE: the HoL debate on clause 11?
Who knew?
Them: We’ve agreed unanimously amongst ourselves that this house decides what’s good for everyone. We’re debating and voting on whether to give ourselves a good pat on the back, to take things which don’t belong to us, crap all over existing devolved constitutional agreements, ride roughshod over your democratic rights, and do with your legislation and resources as we jolly well please, mkay?
Us: Zattafacmac? Righto then. *rolls up sleeves*
@capella
Creag or carraig is Gaelic/Irish for a rock,cliff or precipice. Craig in Scots and Welsh is a sea cliff, rock or boulder. Smaller than a hill but equally as hard.
On UK radio4 today prog we learnt that it was ‘really really’ tough moving plants from and to the temperate house at Kew during renovation…glad the state broadcaster is keeping us informed of things of importance to the ‘nation’.
So Rocky Hill guys, like Benny Hill even?
@ Abulhaq – thx 🙂
Probably stale news, but the British have discovered there are 208 public border crossings between Northern Ireland and the Republic. That’s more than there are on the entire eastern border of the EU, and doesn’t count private crossing points like farm gates between two fields or the door between a living room and kitchen. In one fun case the south/east half of a road is in the Republic while the north/west half is in NI.
It isn’t a problem, however. A man in a pub in Chipping Twitkins has told David Davis that he can solve the problem for £5,000 with his new secret invention.
So, that’s all good.
I have a feeling if any of the current Scots in the HoL had been in the Scottish Parliament in 1707 they would have taken the kings shilling to maintain their own status. They only represent themselves and have no interest in Scotland’s devolution, they are there because they are unionist not because they are democrats (HoL democracy, it’s an oxymoron).
Also I have tested the baby box and it has failed my encap testing. Tied to go-kart and despatched down incline, it provided no worthwhile protect to the occupant.
Dave McEwan Hill says:
Putting an even bigger smile on Norwegian faces. 🙂
Meanwhile, in Scotland it will make no perceptible difference. 🙁
Mundell refuses to tell the Holyrood committee what the UK government will do if the Scottish Government refuses consent to the EU Withdrawal Bill. He says he wants to focus on “the here and now”.
Does that mean if someone goes for a promotion interview and they’re asked what their plans are if their made manager they should refuse to answer and just say that they’re only focussing on the here and now?
I see the usual half dozen night shift drunks are verbally attacking me when everybody else has went to bed. Lay off the drink, would be my advice to these people.
I intervened last night when this “geeo” started abusing fellow posters. Calling them “Roasters”.
Then this “Liz g” thing butts in, like the little Ned that she is (if she is actually a female). Then K1 appeared, probably full of drink and has attacked me.
“Thepnr” asks why I called “K1” a “She”? That is simple numbnut,,it is because she is a female.
Well she was the last time I met her. She was with her girlfriend to be exact. But like Liz g, these two “Females” have become very aggressive and Butch for some reason.
They, along with “geeo” and the other wee plastic hard men on here are actually putting people off contributing to Wings.
Which is sad really.
Can help thinking if you crossed the words of Donald Trump with the deeds of Theresa May, you’d have a slam dunk case for a successful impeachment.
Bit like crossing Brexit with Sovereignty and having a slam dunk case for Independence.
“Theresa’s big plan”
aka “Baldrick’s cunning plan”
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/theresa-may-concedes-customs-partnership-plan-is-dead-after-cabinet-ministers-turn-on-her/ar-AAwFo1i?ocid=spartanntp
This is how “geeo” talks to fellow Wingers:
geeo says:
2 May, 2018 at 8:57 pm
@big jock 4pm
If you think, WITH HINDSIGHT AVAILABLE NOW that an indyref LAST YEAR would have been more successful than NOW (Next 8 months) when the actual shambles of brexit is unfolding before our eyes, then you are indeed, a fucking roaster.
AND:
geeo says:
2 May, 2018 at 8:46 pm
The “real” problem you have , Robert Louis, is YOU do not want independence and try to spread your pishy mantra on here, but try to be a sleekit wee runt about it.
2 days ago you were not voting SNP because of a 20mph speed limit.
Away ya roaster.
So anybody who sticks up doe this THUG “geeo” is just as bad as he is.
Davidson wants questions answered about baby box, but seems not that bothered about Tory austerity which actually has been proven to damage children or the deportation of British citizens who have lived here for decades.
I just wonder if these unionist politicians would exhale a exuberant ‘yes’ if a baby death could be attributed to the box.
jfngw @ 9.52
There actually was one of them who claimed that his family weee indeed involved in the creation of the Union, and had been involved in mantaning it ever since!
Like it was a good thing?
Bizarre
They really don’t live in the real world
@ Welsh Sion 9:10 pm :
” https://ca-commercial.com/news/cambridge-analytica-and-scl-elections-commence-insolvency-proceedings-and-release-results-3
Discuss.”
Smoke & mirrors matey.
They’ve already setup another company called Emerdata Ltd.
Same directors (some appointed in March), same investors (set up company last year), same employees (transferred over in April).
You thought politico scum got moral or something?
Nothing has changed except the name.
@Liz g
I know the weee should be were but I can just vision them going weee if Scotland’s powers are removed.
@Robin says: 3 May, 2018 at 10:02 am:
That post is the most disgraceful comment on Wings for a considerably long time. You deserve to be ignored.
Imperialist never give up their empire without a lot of screaming and postulating. Even though it has long gone the legacy of empire is still built into their education system, particularly I suspect in certain public schools. They still believe all foreigners are inferior, even those from Scotland, Wales and NI, to be honest I don’t think they much like those from some parts of England either.
Mr Peffers , you should have taken your own advice . Now .no doubt , you will become a target for the inane commentator.
@Robert Peffers
I think Robin has been here before, similar to David Caledonia and attacking the same people. You will now be on the list.
P.S and OT May I remind all that Scotland has a charity for animals called the SPCA.
It had a short fund raising advert running on telly voiced by Alex Norton.
The RSPCA which has MUCH more money is running a long fund raising campaign – please be aware that those heart tugging adverts go to an English charity and not to the Scottish equivalent.
Some years ago there was a great revelation that the RSPCA had done the SPCA out of a million quid in funds.
Robert Peffers
Why???
So you don’t mind THUGS like geeo or Liz g or K1 being abusive to others on here.?
I hear that Carole Cadwalladr was interviewed on R Scotland this morning by the almost incoherent Haley Millar. Carole demolished any idea that the “winding up” of Cambridge Analytica meant that the organisation and practise were now dead.
What Haley didn’t ask about was how they were involved the Independence Referendum in 2014.
I see Kaye Adams is now inviting calls on the lethal baby boxes that Nicola Sturgeon is inflicting on Scottish babies. Will Ruth Davidson ask in FMQs?| Probably.
BREXIT.
A piece of news for all Tories in Scotland:
Theresa May concedes customs partnership plan is ‘dead’ after Cabinet ministers turn on her.
“Sajid Javid, the new Home Secretary and Remain voter, switched sides to join Boris Johnson, Michael Gove and other Brexiteers in arguing that Mrs May’s preferred option for a customs deal should be “killed off”………..” 🙁
Get the Tories out ASAP including the bunch from Scotland.
THE TELEGRAPH:
http://archive.is/fSF7q
IMHO
GEEO was the one who kicked all this off.
Check out the timelines above and they go back to GEEO.
Just sayin.
Lets get on with winning our Independence.
Yesindyref2 @5:37am
Import Export Surplus keeps going up. Now at £4.6bn
https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/RTS/Pages/default.aspx
England still in MASSIVE DEFICIT.
Indyref or no Indyref, of course Scotland will be out the EU if Brexit proceeds according to the current Brexit timetable.
Even so, if there’s an indyref, I would vote YES.
If the SNP return to: “if the SNP win the election, the Union will be dissolved”, I would vote SNP again.
I have no desire to vote for an SNP devolution Scot Govt and no longer see any point in voting to send any Scottish MPs to Westminster.
Gottem.
Thanks Vestas @ 10:21am
https://beta.companieshouse.gov.uk/company/10911848/officers
@Vestas, 10.21am
Thanks for the information about Cambridge Analytica/Emerdata Ltd. The analogy which comes to mind is of a snake sloughing off its old skin.
Dorothy Devine says:
Indeed. This mirrors politics on these Isles, and no doubt there are other non political examples of where the English version of something becomes accepted by many as the UK version.
The RSPCA advertises everywhere and has, as a result, achieved a higher profile in Scotland than our own SSPCA.
Many people leave money in their wills to animal welfare and choose RSPCA. At one point, I understand, more donations from Scotland were actually going down south. You could argue animals know no borders and do not have nationalities, however I doubt if sending their money ‘abroad’ was what the benefactors had in mind.
As I say, this is one area and example of the phenomenon of ‘England takes all’, but we have to content with many others.
Dorothy Devine says
“Some years ago there was a great revelation that the RSPCA had done the SPCA out of a million quid in funds.”
I stopped donating to RNIB Scotland after they moved their HQ south. I requested assurance that all funds raised in Scotland stay in Scotland but, despite an email assuring me this was the case, I am reluctant to donate unless I can obtain clear evidence.
galamcennalath says:
3 May, 2018 at 11:02 am
Dorothy Devine says:
Some years ago there was a great revelation that the RSPCA had done the SPCA out of a million quid in funds.
Indeed. This mirrors politics on these Isles, and no doubt there are other non political examples of where the English version of something becomes accepted by many as the UK version.
_______
The National Trust
The NSPCC
are two which immediately spring to mind.
The translation of the word “National” (or “national”) often proves to be a headache for us professional translators, too … (Especially, if you are disposed to being a supporter of “national independence”!)
jfngw @ 10.28
LOL
Actually, Dorothy Devine et al, it’s often worse than that. Whereas *at least* there are charities such as the National Trust for Scotland in existence and they are registered in Scotland (under a SC XXXXXX number), my nation (!) rarely has a “separate” charity – the English/UK one (the National Trust) – is registered in England under a XXXXXX number.)
More rarely, charities are registered in England and Wales (as we share the same legal jurisdiction) but none of these are considered as, say, Eng and Wal numbers, as the number is default, as compared to the SC number.
So the British Standard Institute, a Tory called Miles Briggs and some professor named Blair from Bristol all have concerns over the baby box.
Even though the box attained the EN 1130 European standard award as a crib. The box also meets the British Safety Standard award as a crib the first non-commercial crib in the world to do so.
I smell Britnat scaremongering shite again.
Highland Wifie , the RNIB appear to have an address in Edinburgh but you could be right .
Money could be sent to Forfar Guide Dogs – I’m assuming they are still there!
Welsh Sion I think you are wrong on the National Trust for Scotland .There are good reasons for NOT supporting it in their choice of leading personnel who think that Scotland was emptied thanks to emigration and nothing to do with the evil clearance of the land.
That said , I don’t know enough about its funding so you could well be right.
I know nothing about the funding of the NSPCC either but am quite willing to view anything with the word national with a little scepticism – The National excepted of course!
Gallamcennalath, indeed and I am sure there are many masquerading as ‘national’ give Scotland that famous 8% of the take.
galamcennalath says: 3 May, 2018 at 11:02 am
“As I say, this is one area and example of the phenomenon of ‘England takes all’, but we have to content with many others.”
Walk though the streets of London from Canning Town to Putney, cranes, cranes and more cranes. The disparity and directing of wealth into one place in the uk could not be more open or obvious.
There is a sub debate on here about how well people are informed. People are not well informed, this is what the union’s existence depends upon. This notion that Scots are aware of how we are being lied to is fantasy. We’d be free decades ago if people really knew what was going on.
Why do people not know what is going on? The bbc, press and other media outlets are there with the sole purpose to distract, muddy the waters and call into question any views that are not the states.
What’s the first thing the rebels take during an uprising, the tv and radio station. Boil it down to its basics, people believe what they are told for the most part, hence RSPCA will get money that should go to SSPCA.
Dorothy Devine @ 11:32.
I don’t know about the funding of either charity (either within Eng/Wal/UK vs Scotland).
I was only essentially agreeing with you that the Eng/Wal organisations are usually considered the “default” body for the whole state of UK, whereas Scotland-specific bodies (where they exist) are considered (if at all) to be a smaller/less significant/less news-worthy entity.
Don’t forget, as I said, at least some of these *do* exist with you (SSPCA, SSPCC etc), whereas there are *no* stand alone Welsh charities of these “National” bodies.
re RNIB/Forfar Guide Dogs.
Thepnr (or rather his better half would know) how it works.
If he doesn’t reappear on this thread ask on off-topic.
As long as Scotland gains independence and stays in EU and dont care how we do it.
Re…
Guide Dogs
It’s a UK wide charity, there is no distinction between the Countries.
Like donating Blood!
Also they, with view to making sure that the bloodline of their stock is diluted, co-operate very closely with Europe.
@Dorothy Devine
Yes, the guide dog training school in Forfar is still going strong. As Liz has pointed out the Guide Dogs is a UK wide charity and as such income and expenditure are across the whole UK.
@Dorothy Devine
Yes they (RNIB) still seem to have an office in Edinburgh but in 2015 they moved 225 staff to London which caused a a bit of a stooshie at the time!
Robert Peffers says:
3 May, 2018 at 10:29 am
“@Robin says: 3 May, 2018 at 10:02 am:
That post is the most disgraceful comment on Wings for a considerably long time. You deserve to be ignored.”
You mean since these ones:
Robert Peffers says:
1 May, 2018 at 1:24 pm
“@Northern Rock says: 1 May, 2018 at 12:13 pm:
“Any sign of Ruthie’s “Baby Bump” yet?”
I think I read somewhere that it is mostly hidden under the fourth fold down.”
I find it strange (creepy) that some commenters on WOS seem unable to do anymore than copy/paste other commenters’ comments.
INTER HOMINES AGO.
Brian Doonthetoon says:
6 May, 2018 at 9:57 pm
“I find it strange (creepy) that some commenters on WOS seem unable to do anymore than copy/paste other commenters’ comments.
INTER HOMINES AGO.”
…
Me too.
Couldn’t resist 🙂
Phew! This morning, wiling away an idle breakfast I stumbled on WOS – and was hooked! I am not Scottish but (from a retired-to-France perspective) have been trying to make sense of the Brexit trials and tribulations. Before that I watched from afar the vote to decide on Scotland’s leaving the UK. I was astonished to hear Mr Salmond’s claim that the Bank of England would allow Scotland to retain the Pound Sterling as its currency. I was immensely saddened to think such a divorce would ensue. Reading of Alex Salmond’s (later proven totally spurious) claim for an ‘automatic’ assured right of EU membership for Scotland post-referendum was another sour note. It was reported his office authorised ‘legal’ expenditure of £25,000+ to fight the Information Commissioner’s demands for evidence on this claim. I rather guess this kind of disinformation is what we see all too often as the Brexit train stumbles from one set of broken points to another stop sign – or into a siding where the only way out is reverse.
However, please accept my compliments (the point of me rambling on here) on one of the most thought-provoking, informative and well written comments pages to be found on the web.