Independence is dead as a political issue in Scotland for the next few years. This much should not be in any dispute. A Labour government with a crushing majority sits firmly in Westminster with absolutely no intentions of granting a second referendum, and the SNP has loudly and clearly abandoned any other strategy.
This fact is understandably painful and difficult to come to terms with for anyone who’s devoted the last 13 years (or more) to pursuing that cause and now isn’t quite sure what to do with theirself. But for those who still aren’t ready to face up to the unpleasant reality, there’s always the comforting world of fantasy.
Because there’s always money to be made from snake oil and pie in the sky.
The average rape sentence in Scotland is seven years, so to get six years plus three years’ supervision for the technically lesser crime of sexual assaults means they must have been pretty grim ones.
So we know that Cameron Downing is a very bad man. Which does rather invite the question of why he was so popular in the SNP.
The SNP have been pretty clear about the reason they think they got a battering in last week’s election: it was because people were voting to kick out the Tories.
Now, that’s obviously nonsense. There were almost no Tories in Scotland to start with – just 10% of voters had a Tory MP – and only one of the six actually lost his seat. (Which was entirely down to the ham-fisted interference of Douglas Ross rather than an SNP surge – the SNP’s vote share in the seat in question went DOWN.)
If you wanted to keep Tories out in Scotland all you had to do was keep voting for your current MP, most of whom were SNP, rather than risk splitting the anti-Tory vote by switching to Labour and risk letting the Tories squeeze through in the middle. (Which would have happened in many seats had the Tories’ own vote not collapsed.)
But if it was true that the SNP lost because the electorate thought the election was about getting rid of the Tories, whose fault was that?
To be honest, folks, we’re not quite sure what to do with ourselves at the moment.
Everyone and his wee dug is writing election-aftermath columns and offering the SNP advice of varying intelligence and solemnity about how to recover from the shattering blow they’ve just been dealt by Scottish voters.
But it’s a pointless exercise. They may as well be yelling down a manhole.
The Scottish Greens, in a feat of remarkable hubris and financial profligacy, stood 44 candidates in this week’s general election, knowing that most of them would lose their deposits, which they duly did.
But not quite all of them. And there the comedy arose.
Because while SNP boneheads on social media are raging idiotically at Alba, Wings and others for causing division and damaging the unity of the indy cause yada yada yada, a small handful of Green candidates made a real difference.
The 2005 election was the last time the Daily Record and the Scottish Sun both endorsed the same party at a UK general election. So, y’know, something is going on.
Survation released their final projection for the election last night. It’s quite a boring image because they had to make it mostly grey to correctly illustrate the margin of Labour’s lead.
Those ranges are substantial, but even their BEST-case scenario for the Tories is below 100 seats. The WORST-case scenario for Labour – 447 seats – still gives them a majority of 244, which would smash the all-time record of 209 set by the Tories exactly 100 years ago. (The best case is a dizzying 384.)
Scotland is probably the hardest area of the UK to call. In most polls there are only a few points between Labour and the SNP, and depending on how the votes are spread and who’s best at getting their support out either could still win the most seats.
That won’t, of course, make the slightest difference to the governance of the UK for the next five years. Even 57 Scottish MPs out of 57, for any party, would be completely meaningless to a government with a majority of over 200.
But it’ll make a big difference to the independence movement. Because if the SNP manages to hold onto to a significant proportion of its seats, we can all wave goodbye to the slightest chance of progress for another decade on top of the one that’s been wasted since Alex Salmond resigned.
Northcode on The Hills Of Far Away: ““Calling people “thick cants” isn’t an argument either.” Correct, but then again insults aren’t meant to arguments… not directly, anyway.…” May 13, 19:08
Hatey McHateface on The Hills Of Far Away: “Well, well. So the Falklands now has an outfit backed by a state with the determination, skill, technology and balls…” May 13, 18:48
Hatey McHateface on The Hills Of Far Away: “@Aidan There’s a war crimes tribunal in permanent session atween Geri’s lugs. In the interests of efficiency, she volunteered to…” May 13, 18:40
Hatey McHateface on The Broken Rainbow: “Lucky for Scotland that the boys petitioning the UN make all of this democratic voting malarkey a pointless sideshow. Beats…” May 13, 18:35
duncanio on The Broken Rainbow: “I didn’t say it was an alternative. I said it was imperfect but less imperfect than FPTP. Otherwise you would…” May 13, 18:31
Hatey McHateface on The Hills Of Far Away: ““Do you think have a special, unique entitlement to type insults” Does not compute. Re-type and re-submit.” May 13, 18:25
Hatey McHateface on The Hills Of Far Away: ““Calling something “horseshit” isn’t an argument” Hark at Northy! Only yesterday he was calling people “thick cants”. Ken fit sane,…” May 13, 18:19
Jay on The Hills Of Far Away: “Commander-in-Chief Caveman, I’ve no idea whether you will read this.. What is pretentious in my comment? I do not pretend,…” May 13, 18:17
Captain Caveman on The Hills Of Far Away: “@Aidan “Of course people living in a rich and prosperous country cosplaying as victims is one thing you missed from…” May 13, 17:38
Rev. Stuart Campbell on The Broken Rainbow: “Ever since 2016, the SNP’s policy has basically been to kick it down the road for two years at a…” May 13, 17:33
Rev. Stuart Campbell on The Broken Rainbow: “It made zero difference to the point anyway. But gah, too many numbers flying around at once.” May 13, 17:32
Rev. Stuart Campbell on The Broken Rainbow: “But that’s not the alternative. The alternative is a proportional system that actually works.” May 13, 17:32
Aidan on The Hills Of Far Away: “Of course people living in a rich and prosperous country cosplaying as victims is one thing you missed from your…” May 13, 17:29
Aidan on The Hills Of Far Away: “Had Blair been tried and found guilty of being a war criminal, or even indicted?” May 13, 17:14
Captain Caveman on The Hills Of Far Away: “Regardless of the whys and wherefores, Jay, one thing is certain: you’re a pretentious, obnoxious, insufferable wanker. 🙂 Yup. Deffo…” May 13, 17:10
Aidan on The Broken Rainbow: “Then when the planned showdown in the 2029 General Election goes nowhere, there will always be the 2031 Holyrood election…” May 13, 17:03
Jay on The Hills Of Far Away: “To S. MacKay: firstly you need to learn how to express yourself, even at the level of punctuation. Secondly, constructing…” May 13, 16:49
Northcode on The Hills Of Far Away: “Calling something “horseshit” isn’t an argument. It’s a way of avoiding one. Exposing the mechanics of abusive power is not…” May 13, 16:13
100%Yes on The Broken Rainbow: “Watch yourself Kelly’s Eye will be crowing from the rooftops about the mistake, but he won’t admit he conned everyone…” May 13, 16:03
Lorncal on The Hills Of Far Away: “That should read: now concentrate…” May 13, 15:51
Lorncal on The Broken Rainbow: “O what a tangled web we weave…” May 13, 15:48
Campbell Clansman on The Broken Rainbow: “Interesting, Stu, that you peg the 2026 vote for the Indy parties (even nominally pro-Indy) at 42%. Because the latest…” May 13, 15:20
duncanio on The Broken Rainbow: “The AMS makes the overall result less disproportional rather than more proportional. It mitigates the winner tale all FPTP element…” May 13, 15:16
Rev. Stuart Campbell on The Broken Rainbow: “EMBARRASSING ARITHMETICAL ERROR CORRECTED.” May 13, 15:07
Geri on The Hills Of Far Away: “Blair & all his demonic spawn should be removed from every government office. He’s a war crim, not once, not…” May 13, 14:33
Geri on The Hills Of Far Away: “So if I just stand on my own two feet for independence our colonial overlords will give us *permission*? I…” May 13, 14:22
Alf Baird on The Hills Of Far Away: “” cultural self-belief and constitutional reality lie so far apart” Indeed so, Northcode. Scots think o oorsels as a nation…” May 13, 14:06
Anthem on The Hills Of Far Away: “So environmental protections and climate rules only apply to Scottish oil & Gas within UK territories. I’ll just leave this…” May 13, 13:58
Lorncal on The Hills Of Far Away: “It has been on Australian TV, agentx. They were laughing their wee heids aff at the stupidity of the Scots!” May 13, 13:55
Alf Baird on The Hills Of Far Away: “Colonialism is not really that difficult to understand: https://salvo.scot/scotlands-colonial-status/” May 13, 13:54
