Don’t say we didn’t tell you
The first (and from our perspective, most important) thing to note is that independence is now categorically and unequivocally off the table for at least half a decade.
The failure of the SNP to secure another Holyrood majority last night (for the want of just 360 votes) combined with the Greens’ weasel-worded opposition to a second referendum – and make no mistake, opposition is what it is – will ensure that even if the rUK votes to leave the EU and Scotland votes overwhelmingly to stay in, there will be no indyref before the next Holyrood election in 2021.
Whatever else happens, you can take that to the bank.
The scenario warned of by this site, Scot Goes Pop! and Derek Bateman – while others sneered and tossed around terms like “SNP apologist” – came true. A perfect storm of Tories capitalising on Labour’s collapse by playing the Loyalist card, Unionist tactical voting, reckless self-interest from the Greens and naive stupidity on the list saw D’Hondt take its revenge on the SNP for breaking it in 2011.
It didn’t come out of the blue. We’d been warning readers for nine solid months that the AMS electoral system couldn’t be “gamed” and that the meaningless pursuit of a “pro-independence majority” could lead to disaster.
And we were right about the wildly over-optimistic predictions of how many Green seats it could deliver too. While people listened to number-juggling idiots with a track record of being gigantically wrong on the subject, who fantasised about them taking as many as 12 seats, we studied the real political landscape and consistently said that four or five was a far more plausible number. In the end we were one out.
The “analysis” by clueless Green activist James Mackenzie and his Cutbot blog, which was prominently and repeatedly covered by the Times in particular (without ever pointing out his Green links), came up with some truly laughable “forecasts”, of which the most comical was their assertion that Alison Johnstone would win the Edinburgh Central constituency seat for the Greens, beating Ruth Davidson into 3rd place:
In reality Johnstone’s pointless vanity candidacy saw her trail in a distant 4th, with her 4644 votes – less than half of what Cutbot had “predicted” – achieving nothing more than splitting the pro-independence vote enough to let the Tory leader pip the SNP’s Alison Dickie to the seat by just 610.
(And while Davidson personally would have got in on the regional vote anyway, the Tories still made a net gain from the win, taking three list seats in Lothian – one more than they got in 2011 despite winning a constituency seat this time round.)
Readers in need of a laugh after the election result are heartily advised to have a look at Cutbot’s “forecast” and see just how stupendously wrong it got almost everything.
Seats it predicted on a razor-edge turned out as landslides and vice versa. Every single surprise result – including Labour holding onto Iain Gray’s seat in East Lothian and Willie Rennie capturing Fife North East from the SNP – it missed by a mile.
And yet, we’d wager good money that no lessons whatsoever will be learned and at the next election the press will once again blindly parrot useless numbers-based forecasting over any kind of sane analysis of the reality of specific seats and regions.
Perhaps the standout moment of the BBC’s live coverage in that respect was when Professor John Curtice casually asserted early on Friday morning that the SNP had suffered from “exaggerated expectation”.
The academic somehow neglected to point out who’d exaggerated it – people like him, as the author of a much-ballyhooed study the month before the election, proclaiming that the Nats would get a majority from constituency seats alone, which was used by the media and small parties to assure the party’s voters that they could safely lend their list votes to the likes of the Greens and RISE.
The far-left parties were in the event humiliated, as we’d also predicted.
In the end, hardly anyone did waste votes on them. Cat Boyd and Colin Fox’s RISE limped in with a feeble 0.9% of the vote in their strongest region, Glasgow, scoring just ONE vote more than the demented anti-devolutionists of the “A Better Britain Unionist Party” despite enjoying vastly more media coverage.
But even more embarrassingly, RISE were trounced by their real bête noire, Tommy Sheridan’s Solidarity, who racked up almost 50% more votes than the newcomers but still came nowhere close to the 5% needed to hold onto their deposit.
(In other regions, RISE struggled to even record votes in four figures.)
But there it is. Independence supporters ignored all our warnings and now the Scottish Government will be at the mercy of the opposition, in all sorts of ways.
One of the most immediate is that the Nats may be unwilling to sacrifice one of their MSPs to be Presiding Officer, which could result in a Unionist one who would rule any second referendum outwith Holyrood’s powers, even if there were the votes for it.
The Offensive Behaviour (Football) Act – hugely backed by the public across all party lines, but opposed by the media and every non-SNP party – may well also find itself scrapped. “Named Person” legislation, overwhelmingly backed by every child-welfare agency in the land, could be sabotaged.
The fifth Scottish Parliament will be one of division and wrangling. It’ll contain more than twice as many Tory MSPs as its predecessor, crowing in bouyant and belligerent “No Surrender” mood.
The SNP has experience of successfully running a minority government, of course. But even then it was forced into funding the Edinburgh trams and had its attempts to abolish council tax and hold a referendum blocked.
The Greens will be a purely negative presence in that sense – they’ll be able to veto SNP plans, but they’ll only be able to pursue policies opposed by the Nats if they get the support of ALL the Unionist parties including the Tories. Those voters dreaming of a radical force pushing the SNP leftwards are about to get a rude awakening.
But then, that’s what can happen if you fall asleep on the job.
Defections, bi- elections, scandals, resignations. Unionists lose two seats and they are back in the minority.
Presiding officer should be a Green and the Greens and SNP can make sure it is. However it doesn’t matter if the presiding officer tries to overule majority support for Indi ref. They would not have a leg to stand on.
It’s a pain in the ass relying on the Greens but it’s not the end of the world.
This is an excellent analysis on the sad state of affairs to which we have come after all the post-ref excitement success. Of course the mainstream media has pushed this narrative but the information was available for everyone who cared. I live in the States and I knew this was going to happen. Of course i do get a lot of info from ‘wings’ 🙂 How can it be that those who say they want Indy who actually flipping live in Scotland could do (or not do) this? Geez. Is there something in Scottish water these days that sap people of strength and intellect?
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2016/05/daily-chart-3
“Those dreaming of a radical force pushing the SNP leftwards are about to get a rude awakening”
I often wonder if its the Yoon media , who give Sheridan , RISE , and the radical Left , such high exposure .
about 1% of the electorate vote for them , spite of Sheridan being one of the top ten , high profile politicians in Scotland . (outside party leaders who is there ? )
is it only when they think the Tory vote , wont bother leaving the nursing home on polling day , that they bring Sheridan out to terrify Middle Scotland .
The inevitable bye elections now become critical and must wins to re-establish of sanity to the Parliament.
Aye, you said it indeed, Rev.
Don’t blame Me. I voted SNP x 2.
IMHO – the SNP should operate as they did before – a minority Govt. Make no deals with anyone. “We are pushing ahead with our manifesto. You can back us if you want.” Be interesting to have the next Scottish Budget vote. If the SNP can’t get it through, can the SNP dissolve parliament and call a SNPA SE election? We’ll see how the Regional vote falls then.
I never threw in the towel on Sept 19th 2014, and I’m certainly not going to do it now. A second indy ref only two years after the last one, was always too soon for me. Patience, lad, patience. The time will come.
Let the Tories crow, and then watch them tear themselves apart in June over Europe. Again.
Let Ruth Davidson stand up and defend the Tories when their polices bite hard across the UK.
Let’s shine a light on the nasty party in Scotland, when it all comes oozing out and they show their true colours again.
Let’s no shed no tears for Labour as they face oblivion. Surely now, they must back independence.
And above all, let’s look at the opportunities the next parliament will bring.
We’ve got a pro-indy majority despite what Harvie says. A minority SNP government will have to up its game, and the risk of them morphing into Labour is now over. No need to worry about complacency.
Land Reform will get a welcome boost with the Greens pushing the SNP hard on this.
It looks bad, but as somebody once said, a week is a long time in politics and things can change for the better for the pro-indy side. Let’s focus on the positives.
I believe an Indyref within 5 years would fail anyway, Brexit or not, and two lost in a row would essentially be the end of the idea for a very long time.
Given another 6+ years for the generational shift to yes, I can see it actually succeeding. Not what most people on here want to hear but impatience really will kill off the independence dream.
In the meantime I believe the best course of action is to erode the general population’s confidence in the MSM and EBC at every possible turn. How we do this, I have no idea, but it should be every Yessers top priority.
I’ve been kidding myself , in the aftermath of the election I looked for a silver lining ,thinking that the tory vote would dissolve in the clear light of day . Ruth Davidson has no substance ,full of blaw and bluster and only gained the seats she did due to voter dissatisfaction with the labour party. I forgot about the odious Tomkins .We are stuck with him and cannot rely on Patrick Harvie to support Scotland in self determination .
Those who “lent ” their votes to the Greens to give minor parties a chance , have it seems, done us in .
The only solace is that SNP do better when rising to a cause , I will be out there again tomorrow , trying to convince people of the way to take Scotland forward against the odds we face now.
I’ve been doing it for nearly 50 years ,but I had hoped it would be easier now….Scotland voting for tories ? I am sickened .. We still have a long and rocky road ahead of us .Some of us still remember how bad it can be under a Tory govt .
But make no mistake , I am only human ,and will be among the first to say …I told you so #myconscienceisclear.
The 2 most abundant things in the universe are hydrogen and stupidity.
I was unaware of that quote from Patrick Harvie, but the, I voted 2 X SNP.
I wonder if those eijits who wasted their second vote on the Greens did?
You know……..those so called pro independence types…………mugs.
The first year will tell us much and probably set the tone for the rest of the term.
TBH, with all the misdirection the pundits and the meeja were throwing out in the past four weeks, I was pleasantly surprised the SG made it to 63. It could have been a whole lot worse for a party seeking a third term.
We’re at, where we’re at. Next step is to see who works best with the landscape at Holyrood.
Now was not the time to wander, it was the time to stay focused.
Instead we now have the unionists and their pals in the media put wholes in our armour.
I am not an member of any political party. However until independence we have to use the biggest stick around to beat the unionist tricksters down.
Still just over 22 percent for hardcore unionist vote, its hardly a ringing endorsement by a mile. Way further back than Scottish independence support nadir.
Let us serve this as a warning, we should not let the UK mind games division get inside our head. They have did it for 100s of years with the Sectarian division of the working class. We have to work on outreach to get at the persuadable middle. That means getting policy and good government on the ground
If Scotland is forced out of the EU against its will then it will be up to public opinion as to whether there is an independence referendum to maintain our status as EU citizens.
It is not up to the Greens to decide this. If they stand in the way of such a demand (if it arises) they are finished as a growing political force.
For what little it’s worth, I suspect the UK will remain in the EU and there will be no “triggers” for an independence referendum.
I personally believe a post 2021 referendum was always the more realistic scenario, especially if a Conservative Westminster government is elected in 2020. I see no sign of the UK Labour Party getting its act together.
David Cameron’s little helpers in Scotland can, in the meantime, be the full focus of everyone’s attention. Ruth Davidson is the poster girl of the United Conservative & Labour Yoons.
Pretty clear you’ve learned nothing, Stu.
So spit your dummy oot and greet at a world that simply won’t do what you want it to. If only people would just listen to you, eh?
Once you’ve done that see if just for once, you can sit back and reflect on a different interpretation of events. Your SNP x 2 mantra failed, but we still have a pro-indy majority for the second Parliament running.
Winning independence isn’t the same as the SNP winning and it never will be. Calling a second referendum because you can – and we can, if and when we want – still doesn’t win over the people you need to secure a Yes vote. It’s going to be more of a long game. A long, hard game that the SNP will not, cannot win on its own.
And it’s not a computer game, Stu. It involves real people, with feelings and thoughts and motives and ideas that create more chaotic, more complex layers than any gamer could ever comprehend. Despite all your assertions to the contrary, Stu, you were the one who tried to game the system.
You failed. But it is not game over. Far from it. When you step back from the screen you might just see that.
You told us to vote for who we wanted to.
How do you know that those splitting their vote and voting green didn’t follow that advice?
As it happens I was both votes SNP and in Hamilton that may have been a wasted regional vote. It doesn’t matter because I voted for who I wanted. I didn’t want to vote green and don’t regret not voting green even though it may have been the sensible thing to do.
I’m a bit disappointed with some of the reactions I’m reading this morning.
Of course, some of us actually want the SNP government to adopt some more “green” policies on things like fracking and land reform. It’s of no use running a majority government if that government is too scared of its own shadow to be truly effective on issues keenly felt by its own supporters.
Hard to claim that the greens standing let Ruth Davidson in – more than likely it was die hard unionists voting for their preferred option to oust the SNP. The boundary changes could also have had an adverse reaction to the Independence support…ach yer right, feck the greens!
I think you may be being a little over-pessimistic, Rev.
There are a few possible positives from this as well – obviously how good/bad the result turns out to be will depend on how they play out. But on the plus side:
1. Labour will have to do some soul searching on what their point is now. Are they really going to spend the next 5 years aiding the Tories in opposing anything the SNP (potentially backed by the Greens) try and do? Including things like child protection rules supported by children’s charities, ending anti-sectarian legislation etc? Just so they can remain part of the “unionist coalition” that’s killed them? I mean, I wouldn’t be in the least surprised if that is what they do and if they do it’ll be a miserable, depressing 5 years of the same old crap. But there is at least the chance they might find a wiser head somewhere who could prevail and help push them to a more progressive position.
2. The unionist media, especially the ones in London appear to be taking this as “the SNP have lost, the union is now safe” which frankly is a good place for them to be right now. They seem to have failed to understand the SNP vote has actually *increased* and we have a pro-indy parliament, if all the greens are actually pro-indy. A complacent London media with no clue what’s happening in Scotland, and who no longer care is well worth cultivating over the next few years.
3. The entire tone and debate at Holyrood may well shift. For too long Labour have been able to get away with a narrative of “the SNP are not doing enough to mitigate the Tory government we fought tooth and nail to keep running Scotland”. With them out the way as main opposition, the fight will now be directly Tory-SNP, and Ruth won’t be able to play that narrative. The face of the union is now very firmly Tory, and it’s a Tory face that’s as much Cameron and Osborne as it is Davidson. Again, Labour will have to choose what side it’s on in this new Holyrood. And those who voted no but aren’t natural Tories may just get a bit of a wake up call.
It’s too early to tell exactly what this parliament will be like – we’ll only really know in retrospect what part it will play in independence or not. But at the moment I think it’s as likely to speed up independence as slow it down.
It’s fascinating seeing how this is being perceived (spun?) by both SNP supporters and Greens.
The SNP are saying “See! We lost the majority, we told you you should’ve voted BothVotesSNP’
But as you already pointed out the numbers of votes garnered by the left-fringe groups RISE, Solidarity etc are so few as to immaterial. The few thousand they got nationwide wouldn’t have led to a single extra SNP list seat, and they didn’t stand in constituencies so they hardly split that vote either did they?
RISE and Solidarity are lamentable in other ways but it’s clearly not their ‘fault’. The overwhelming majority seem to have stayed true to BothVotesSNP. A strong showing on the list got the SNP 3 seats in the South region for example.
The Greens are saying “See! We told you it was a waste of time voting SNP on the list, we could’ve got more indy-supporting seats. In the North East the SNP got 137k list votes and nothing to show for it, where as the Greens were only 3000 away from getting someone else independence supporting elected. Instead we have 4 tories and Mike friggin Rumbles of the Lib Dems.
In the same area 2011 the SNP got one of the list despite winning all the constituencies, so it’s not a cast-iron rule, but their vote was down this time by much much more than the Greens increase so where did that vote go?
That’s the question the SNP need to be thinking about, not hammering the Greens.
@Murray
I suspect you are right about the non UK-EU exit, but I do wonder, if the polls in rUK coalesces if a high Remain vote in Scotland pushed the overall UK vote to a Remain position, quite what the reaction would be in England?
Might there be a push to “expel” those rebellious Scots from the bosom of the “Mother of all Unions” after all?
Stuart, the SNP got 234,148 more votes than in 2011. This time the electoral system worked as it should rather than the anomaly of last time.
109 votes shy against Jackie Baillie. And some other very close calls but it’s still an excellent performance.
If the planets align there is no way that Patrick Harvie and certainly John Finnie will block another independence referendum. I have a feeling we might have something in 2019 or 2020.
“In the meantime I believe the best course of action is to erode the general population’s confidence in the MSM and EBC at every possible turn. How we do this, I have no idea, but it should be every Yessers top priority.”
Abso-fucking-lutely. We need to educate people as to how this insidious Colonial ‘public service’ is deceiving them.
This is a priority. We need a snappy moniker to encapsulate the true insidious nature of the BBC just like ‘Red Tory’ tainted and brought the toxicity of SLabour to the public consciousness.
SE 2021 – SNP x 2 (Learn people).
Perfectly described Stu.
Maybe they’ll remember next time but I doubt it.
A lot of people I won’t forget.
Five years of wrangling covering another WM election which the Tories will win and will see Scotland asset stripped.
Then the empty husk will be discarded.
I think a Green as Presiding officer is a great idea. As for the `tartan Tory label that seems to be pushed around from party to party – it’s now clear that those real Tories hiding within the Labour party and dreaming of the Empire’s last stand seem now to have gone native and returned to prop up the union flagpole with Ruthie. That leaves a demoralised core of Labour support in Scotland many of whom disagreed with the leadership over the Indy ref. It’s time that the Labour party rid it’s self of the toxic unionists who remain and come back over to the left wing of Scottish politics and abandon their grandstanding on every issue that the SNP tables to try to score political points because just up to now that’s not been working out for the poor wee souls.
Stu just needs to take a deep breath. Remember the day after indi 2014. We thought the world had ended and the SNP would collapse. The opposite happened!
I still think the fall in turn out from Indi 2014, WM 2015 and now this. killed the majority. Had the pro indi folk got off their backsides we could be looking at an increased majority. The SNP polled 6% lower than WM on the constituamcy vote!
“a pro-indy majority”
A “pro-indy majority” means absolutely fuck-all. A parliament is not a referendum.
Off the Table,It really wasn’t on the table anyway, we have to have the big discussion in the summer, but the sun is shining today and the 45% 55% Gap narrows to a 1.33% swing to win independence.
The union hangs by a thread gossamer thin this morning , that’s why the BBC are running with Conservative victory, when in fact it was a protest vote against the lies spread about the SNP, its going to be a hot summer!
Harvie is a self-serving weasel who has one interest – Patrick Harvie. The greens are NOT pro-indy, they’re shy Tories.
Hopefully we’ve seen the last of the RISE fuckwits – and CommonSpace/Cat Boyd.
The turncoat Mike Small & Bella are due their comeuppance too and that’ll be very sweet when it comes – and it will.
I think a Green as Presiding officer is a great idea. As for the `tartan Tory label that seems to be pushed around from party to party – it’s now clear that those real Tories hiding within the Labour party and dreaming of the Empire’s last stand seem now to have gone native and returned to prop up the union flagpole with Ruthie.
That leaves a demoralised core of Labour support in Scotland many of whom disagreed with the leadership over the Indy ref.
It’s time that the Labour party rid it’s self of the toxic unionists who remain and come back over to the left wing of Scottish politics and abandon their grandstanding on every issue that the SNP tables to try to score political points because just up to now that’s not been working out for the poor wee souls.
“If the planets align there is no way that Patrick Harvie and certainly John Finnie will block another independence referendum”
Finnie, maybe not. But Harvie ACTUALLY SAID he wouldn’t support it. Take off the blinkers, for God’s sake.
Oh, and one more positive. We do have a pro-indy majority if we want or need it, but we also have a perfect excuse not to use it if the time isn’t right during this parliament. Had there been an outright majority, we’d have heard nothing but, ‘so when’s Nicola calling the next referenda’ from the unionists, who still think Yes would lose if one is called too early, genuinely killing indy off for a generation! I suspect their greatest fear is another referendum, but not one in the next year or two, regardless of EU vote.
Scotland voting for Tories was always on the cards. You just have to look at the outcome of IndyRef#1 to see that. Those mental voters would rather have the prospect of being goverened by Tories from another country than walk out the bloody cage they don’t (yet) see they’re being kept in. Voting ‘Scottish Tories’ would have been a much easier propositon for them.
The carefully planted ‘studies’ and forecasts were gleefully promoted by the media and of course, the BBC.
Freudian slip by Call (U)Kaye this morning.
On discussing the tory vote she says “by our reckoning WE are up 8, the conservatives are up by 8.1%”
12:05 into link.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b0791mw8#play
Andrew Watson says:
But as you already pointed out the numbers of votes garnered by the left-fringe groups RISE, Solidarity etc are so few as to immaterial.
Isn’t it strange that a party that gets a few thousand votes commanded so much time and energy and media attention ?
Think if all that energy had gone into fighting the Tories instead.
“That’s the question the SNP need to be thinking about, not hammering the Greens.”
Again – a “pro-indy majority” is a completely meaningless term. Unlike the Greens the SNP are a party of government – it’s their duty to seek a majority, and that means getting every vote.
What we learned last night is that they didn’t get enough votes for a majority, so getting even fewer wouldn’t have solved anything. If all their list votes had gone Green they’d just have what they have now, only worse – they’d still be a minority government, only even MORE hostage to the Greens. How would that help?
Fucksake, think things through.
This is still an incredible result for the SNP after 2 terms in power.
It would be good to remember that the SNP believes in proportional representation and based on 47% for the constituency vote and 42% in the regional, 63 out of 129 looks quite proportional to me (actually over represented at 48.8% of the seats).
The Greens bleating on about the “both votes SNP” brainwashing are as pathetic as the SNP complaining about the Greens having the audacity to chase votes and try and gain seats – I’m sure we all remember when the SNP struggled to win more than a handful of seats, it’s a lot harder to be on the losing side and keep faith than the winning side.
Who knows what will happen in the next months and years… We are still in a strong position for independence – maybe having the light shone on the Tories a little bit more for all to see will help the cause.
In Nicola we trust.
It is worth comparing the list numbers with 2011. Rounding roughly to 1,000s, In Highland:
SNP Lost 3,000
Lab lost 3,000
Ukip gained 2,000
LD gained 5,000
Grn gained 6,000
All seems to balance moreorless.
Conservatives more than doubled their vote from 20,000 to nearly 45,000!
So were they unusually good at getting out their ‘silent’ supporters, having never bothered before?
Maybe this huge surge of Tory voters (without losses from other parties) is down to holiday home electors who registered for the referendum and stayed on the roll?
Why doesn’t the Electoral commission check for dual registrations? (Silly question I know!)
Anyone have a link to detailed breakdown of the votes region by region?
The Greens will be a purely negative presence in that sense – they’ll be able to veto SNP plans, but they’ll only be able to pursue policies opposed by the Nats if they get the support of ALL the Unionist parties including the Tories. Those voters dreaming of a radical force pushing the SNP leftwards are about to get a rude awakening.
Certainly not unimaginable to see the Greens being a tad beligerent now and again, but we do live in interesting times at the moment. A Tory led UK government that could potentially cause such dissent, that the possibility of other non-SNP MSP’s stating that they would back independence might not be too far-fetched.
As to another Referendum based on an EU exit, well, that could be negated if the UK votes to remain in. That places a 2nd Referdnum onto the limbo shelf straightaway.
To be honest, this is the long game. Independence is going to take a number of events for it to happen. 50% of the nation are for it, but the others will need to be slowly dragged from their position of feeling ‘British’. It will come down to how well the SNP govern and how badly the Unionists in London don’t. If the Tories can continue to shaft anyone from the central-middle classes downwards, then people will look for the alternative …and there’s not much out there that looks like decent opposition apart from the SNP in Scotland.
I think the UK is in serious transition at the moment. So many key events in the last decade compared to say the 40 to 50 years between WW2 and the millenium. But I don’t think we’re going back to an age of where there is just the ‘British State’ and that’s it. Let’s just wait and see what happens next.
Tony
Might there be a push to “expel” those rebellious Scots from the bosom of the “Mother of all Unions” after all?
Indeed, that would be lovely!
We’ve reached that part near the end of the movie where the big fight scene has finished and the good guys have beaten the bad guys, but then the really big number one leader of the bad guys appears and an even bigger battle starts.
We’ve beaten their red minions. Now it’s a straight fight between the SNP and the Tories, at Holyrood and at Westminster.
What can Labour do? Support the SNP? Support the Tories? Abstain on everything? They can only attack the SNP now by supporting Ruth, and through her supporting Cameron and Osborne.
So it’s a straight fight between the SNP and the Tories with Labour abstaining themselves into irrelevance. What the Greens and the LibDems do then won’t matter.
Every debate and every argument will be about Scotland against the Tories and Westminster, with no more Labour distractions.
I’m looking forward to it.
Interesting point Cath.
I see lots of positives.
OT To echo above though, if you haven’t yet stopped your newspaper subscription or TV licence, then damned well do it. I haven’t paid a licence in 6 years. It’s easy not to break the law and starve the BBC.
I think you’re the one that needs to take off the blinkers, Stu.
The Greens are pro-indy. If the circumstances align, all six MSPs will vote for a second referendum in this parliament.
There is no point in trying to force a second referendum unless we’re certain we can win. Nicola has grasped that, but not you or many Wingers on here, apparently.
You can huff and puff all you want but this result is probably a pretty accurate reflection on Scottish public opinion across a range of issues, and especially independence. A Brexit vote may fundamentally change the landscape – or it may not. Chances are we’re just going to have to work harder and longer.
Nobody said this was going to be easy.
“Conservatives more than doubled their vote from 20,000 to nearly 45,000! So were they unusually good at getting out their ‘silent’ supporters, having never bothered before?”
They’ve been proven to be quite good at electoral fraud, haven’ they?
A bit too gloomy for my liking today. The SNP have experience of tactically operating a minority government, and yes that will mean that some plans will be derailed or watered down perhaps. But I think it will do some good, I don’t want a referendum as soon as is insanely possible, a minority or collation government is a readjustment back to the very edge of the parliamentary ‘design’, and provides a new space where the usual politik and constitutional debate will continue. I’m not convinced that a Brexit vote would automatically catapult and propel another referendum, everybody seems to want to break their neck so to speak and I can’t see how.
The SNP did well again, third term in government albeit not as strong this time round, and Labour as the main opposition party has now been effectively demolished.
Cheer up folks.
Indeed, the media is horrible!
Like the Matrix movie, except that they can’t get to me since I unplugged their propaganda some years ago!
Big question: how do the enlightened reach the rest of society? I mean, Wings is great but simply acts as an echo chamber!
And the worst part is the SNP will now have to actually try and run Scotland without the fun of agitating for indyref2…bummer
#BothVotesSNP failed because we didn’t get enough votes, and because we were only a few hundred out at most across three constituencies. Particularly gut-wrenching for Alison Dickie, Gail Robertson and Paul Wheelhouse, who I can personally attest worked damned hard to get where they got. Hell mend any activists and voters who felt this would be a cakewalk, even if none of them were present in Greenock & Inverclyde.
But “Vote Green on the List” failed too, because they failed to maximise their own votes to the extent they got enough for 2 list MSPs in anywhere except Lothian. Don’t blame the SNP for “wasted votes” (I still hate that term) that YOU failed to capitalise on.
Ultimately, though, I blame – as ever – a media that manufactured apathy and presented an “uneventful election” to lull people into the cosy security that the SNP majority was “guaranteed.”
The Greens have a lot to prove and a huge responsibility on their shoulders. If they do what the Rev fears, and stick to their manifesto, then I – and I suspect many of their supporters – will never forgive them.
We must work on the assumption of good faith, that the Greens can be persuaded and that we can get support for independence built strongly enough that 5 years isn’t the maximum. I really don’t want the Greens to betray us, and themselves, the way the Lib Dems and Labour did.
Understand I am NOT challenging individual Green MSPs: I know the likes of John Finnie are utterly committed to independence. But I would really, really love the rest of the party to prove the naysayers wrong and prove their commitment to independence.
I’m personally much more concerned about things like the OBFA, and any other policies the Unionist parties could gang up with the Greens on regardless of whether they agree or not – as long as it defeats the SNP, they’ll back it. See: Edinburgh trams.
If the Greens didn’t stand, and their supporters didn’t vote for the pro-independence constituency candidate, then that doesn’t say much for the Yes Alliance, does it?
The Greens know which side their bread is buttered on. They, to quite a great extent, tied to the SNP and know that their seats would be very vulnerable if they were seen as obstructive to Independence in any way.
That’s why Alison Johnstone was on the BBC 30 minutes ago, echoing the words of Nicola Sturgeon, confirming that the Greens will support a Referendum based on public opinion.
It’s disappointing that the SNP failed to win their majority. But it was also inevitable that there would be coalescence of the Loyalist vote at some point and this is where it happened.
The main danger for the SNP is what Labour do. If they continue to be self-destructive and continually attack the SNP (and therefore boost the Tories at Labour’s own expense) then they will vanish into the night. Of course they may be close to there already as if they do hold a core of anti-Tory voters, next time they could lose them to the SNP. I think the Labour bottom is not yet reached.
Exactly
FFS when will people wake up and not be conned by devious pollsters and MSM gerrymandering. Again and Again. It could have been a clean sweep. Now the crowing Tory MSM.
Including voters who gave second vote to Labour or Tories.
Rev Patrick Harvey would split his MSP’S if he didn’t support a referendum if the country was shown to want one, we only need three votes, wait, its coming, slowly ever so slowly but its coming. none gave up when its was 5% swing, no one will when its only just over 1%.
As Big Jim said, some labour will vote yes if the argument is made, Nicola said we will start in the summer, good enough for me!
Extraordinary vote for Willie Rennie in NE Fife as he can achieve nothing for those who voted. He was an MSP and will still be an MSP. The Libs are down one, they achieved nothing before and will go on with that record.
Stuart, Harvie would be persuaded to support or at least abstain. Or at least one of the other greens along with Finnie. If Harvie is convinced by Sturgeon it would be won he will back it.
Honestly, increasing the vote by 234,000 and still coming up a couple of seats short is just unlucky. And nobody could have predicted Willie Rennie.
And we can always get Kez Dugdale to back one if push came to shove.
This is worth repeating; pervasive BBC propaganda still works. London’s agitprop channel successfully convinced a sufficient number of voters to deny the SNP a clear majority. So congratulations to all those who pay the License Fee (an optional TV tax). You all helped make that happen.
There exists in Scotland yet, a powerful resistance to any attempt to subvert the authority of Westminster & the London based Establishment.
It had been obvious for months that London could no longer rely on their traditional sycophants in Labour’s north British branch office to continue trading on their behalf, so haplessly contradictory had they become.
But the Establishment had a plan B in Ruth Davidson with whom they colluded to champion the status quo by succinctly dropping the words “Conservative & Unionist Party” from her campaign while exhausting the electorate with references to stopping another independence referendum.
Meanwhile, egged on by the pro BritNat print media, the Green Party & RISE gullibly targeted seats in Edinburgh for example which caused key SNP seats to fall to all three main Unionist parties.
Sure, a 3rd consecutive win by the SNP is historic & we must not forget that the d’Hondt voting method at Holyrood is designed specifically to prevent any party from achieving an outright majority. But it was first implemented when even the idea of SNP dominance was considered laughable & it was thought that devolution would kill independence stone dead. Remember?
So in one sense, the electoral system returned a parliament that reasonably reflected the opinions of the electorate. But you must ask yourself what kind of parliament we might have had today if London did not have the BBC beaming opinion forming propaganda into living rooms all over the country in order to keep the SNP in check.
All the parties, except Labour of course, will be crowing about their successful campaign this morning. But none will be gloating as hard as the folks at the BBC in London & in Glasgow who ironically used your money to chisel away at the SNP’s dominance to good effect.
The dream of independence isn’t dead but the prospect of our country extracting itself from broken Britain has suffered a major setback. Those hoping for a second referendum during this parliament are going to be disappointed. I’ll happily wager my cat that it won’t happen.
And while the SNP will continue to execute sound governance, London has just been handed an easy five year window during which it really can kill off the aspirations of those seeking independence for a generation.
Holyrood was conceived by London to be a talking shop to satisfy those agitants who wanted some local say in Scotland’s economy. But the narrative since devolution was implemented has altered completely.
While the SNP must of course deal with the day to day chores, Holyrood has become a defacto YES/NO Colosseum in which differences between Scottish opinions & policies & Britain’s are used to amplify the justification for independence.
But now Sturgeon is going to have to deal with the significantly more combative, “No Surrender”, droopy jawed Davidson & an ambivalent Green party. Thankfully, Rennie will continue to be little more than pet friendly amusement.
No doubt Cameron will have already congratulated BBC executives for a successful political campaign & feel rather smug with himself, now that Labour’s north British branch office has played the Unionist patsy to perfection.
You have to hand it to the London Establishment; they don’t let cash cows go easy, do they?
Silver lining maybe, but if the SNP are obstructed maliciously, they can use that to promote independence. E.g. unable to mitigate yet more Tory cuts due to unionist intransigence, they can rightly say “we have these cuts, we can’t remove them, and it’s all due to being in the union”.
That said, there’s not enough appetite for independence yet. Another 10 years, minimum.
Depressing. Cowards. Absolute fucking cowards.
In the event of Brexit where the Greens don’t support a second referendum, surely the SNP can force a snap election on the issue in a fairly short amount of time, if the public really wants it? Sturgeon was always right that it’s ultimately the Scottish electorate that will decide the issue.
Outside of that, there doesn’t seem like much that could cause enough of a push to make another referendum worth the risk. It;’d need to be clearcut, because a second failed referendum pushes back the prospect for a long time. I suspect the SNP will need to peak, fall back and rise again before you get a second successful referendum. That will be the political generation they talked about.
So the SNP won more constituency seats and almost a quarter of a million votes more too yet lost their majority! Something wrong with that voting system methinks.
Has anyone crunched the numbers yet to work out how many more list votes it would have taken in each region to secure an extra SNP there?
“The Greens are pro-indy. If the circumstances align, all six MSPs will vote for a second referendum in this parliament.”
Oh, fuck off. How clearly do they have to say that they won’t before you’ll listen? A million-signature petition? They might as well demand it be presented to Parliament by fucking Nessie on a unicorn.
“Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
6 May, 2016 at 2:14 pm
“That’s the question the SNP need to be thinking about, not hammering the Greens.”
Again – a “pro-indy majority” is a completely meaningless term. Unlike the Greens the SNP are a party of government – it’s their duty to seek a majority, and that means getting every vote.
What we learned last night is that they didn’t get enough votes for a majority, so getting even fewer wouldn’t have solved anything. If all their list votes had gone Green they’d just have what they have now, only worse – they’d still be a minority government, only even MORE hostage to the Greens. How would that help?
Fucksake, think things through.”
HOSTAGE to the Greens? I thought Wings was pro-indy? No? Just pro-SNP, then.
But, of course, you weren’t telling us how to vote.
Fucksake, Stu, think things through.
Political battle in Scotland is now Unionism versus Independence, no longer Left versus Right. LibDem, SLabour and Tory votes are now interchangeable to stop or erode the SNP. That’s all that matters now to Unionists, to prevent a second Indyref.
The Unionist Bloc will do everything it can to derail SNP and Holyrood at large. It remains to be seen how SLabour will pan out over the next 12 months, will they just side with the Tories to defeat the SNP on every issue? If they do, then they’re finished for good.
This coming five years will have to see the SNP be very clever in government. Yes there will be some agreement with the Greens on certain issues, compromise on others, but play the game successfully and Scotland will still be marching to Independence. Despite a lack of majority, it was still a good night for the SNP.
Learn the lessons, come back stronger, change Scotland forever.
“Again – a “pro-indy majority” is a completely meaningless term”
Fair enough if that’s what you reckon. I disagree but hey ho, not here for a fight. I don’t dispute that the SNP as a party want every vote and want an SNP majority not just a pro-indy one. I would never expect them to endorse another party.
Did enough list votes actually go Green to make a difference to the SNP though? As I said in the North East their vote was down 8% and the Greens only up 1%. It was down 8% in the Highlands and the Greens only up 2%.
There’s far more at work here than “splitting the vote”.
By-elections are the last thing the SNP want, they would most likely only be held in SNP seats, any loss of a list MP is just replaced by the appointment of the next candidate on that party’s list. To all intents and purposes it now looks like Scottish politics has a unionist/non-unionist divide (much like Northern Ireland), objectively the new parliament has only shifted by 2 members in the unionist direction this time. What the SNP have managed to do (especially post SSP, etc) is coalesce the vast majority of the independence minded voters in their favour. It needs a fundamental change in mindset of those pro union to change this significantly.
SNP votes – 1,059,897 constituency, 953,587 list, – list seats 4
Cons votes – 501,844 constituency, 524,222 list, – list seats 24
Lab votes – 514,261 constituency, 435,919 list, – list seats 21
Libd votes – 178,238 constituency, 119,284 list, – list seats 1
Greens votes – 13,172 constituency, 150,426 list, – list seats 6
D’Hondt, ever wondered why Westminster doesn’t use it?
This is nonsense Stuart, the Greens WILL support another referendum, though not necessarily right after the EU referendum. Looks like the SNP are just gonna have to suck it up and listen to the wider Yes movement for a change.. and you never know, we might just win it next time as a result!!
We have to hope for a Green presiding officer. Perhaps Finnie who was with SNP up until the NATO vote could be persuaded. That would negate any chance of a presiding officer refusing a referendum if support was there for one.
Gus, I’m looking at this from a long way away, but it seems to me that the Greens didn’t stand on their own policies. Is that fair comment? If it is then I have a fundamental problem with that. I was an SNP activist in the 1980’s and we argued then that a vote for the SNP was another step on the long road to independence. That is, and remains, the party’s policy. What, honestly, did the Greens stand on? Some vague argument about being a bold opposition? Not good enough.
Now, if I have it wrong and the Greens did argue for substantive policies, that is fair enough. We really don’t want to be like here in the USA where there are, effectively, two government-approved parties, neither of whom represent the working class.
I am interested to hear your, or anyone else’s thoughts on this.
I don’t know if I can bear to listen to Ruth Davidson’s voice shouting across the Holyrood Chamber for another five years. At least Annabelle Goldie’s voice was bearable.
Or to hear Adam Tomkins wheeled out on every available occasion by the BBC to laud Ruthie and the Tory party’s meteoric rise in Scottish politics.
Shouldn’t it be a countrywide division of lists votes instead of just regions. That looks like a flaw in the system.The whole of the list vote (countrywide) should be divided. Not just divided as regions.
The SNP getting a much higher total vote than corresponding MSP’s.
It’s hard, but I’m trying to see the bright side here.
1. Tory seats aren’t necessary a vote for Tory policies. They are mostly unionist votes.
2. Labour took a pounding, and have some serious thinking to do.
3. A second referendum is now far more unlikely in this term, but perhaps it would have been hard to win in the next 5 years anyway. Younger voters need to replace more of the Britnat pensioners, and the deficit needs to come down.
All they can do is govern as best they can in the meantime and keep pushing the case for full powers.
@Rev – I hope you can keep this site going. Maybe everyone needs to take a break and think things over.
I feel sorry for all those activists who put in all the hard work and effort pounding the streets trying to get SNP MSPs elected on the constituency and the list vote.
Only to see those efforts undone by the treacherous self seeking Greens who have helped the Tories and Libdems prevent the Scottish Government achieving a majority.
Incidently I knew Robert (Bob) Harper he was one of my a teachers at my secondary school in the 60s and I didn’t think much of him then.
Maybe the disappointment hasn’t sunk in for me yet, or I am in shock. I am feeling quite optimistic that things will work out in our favour.
The UK is sinking, and England is in a mess from top to bottom. Eventually everything will fall in our favour. I see the Labour wipeout as the trigger for momentous change.
What nips ma heed is that I and many of my pals voted SNP x2 and when I look at the figures for the regionals nearly 750,000 punters did the same but these votes disappeared like snaw aff a dike. For example here in Fife the SNP had over 120000 votes and the next nearest the Cons had just over 73000 resulting in them getting 4 candidates and us getting hee haw. So would I had been better off spoiling my second vote???only asking like.
@Ian Brotherhood says: Anyone have a link to detailed breakdown of the votes region by region?
It’s all here, just scroll down and you get a breakdown by constituency and region.
http://www.bbctamil.com/news/election/2016/scotland/results#constituencies
There has already been Inquiries into poor analysis by Pollsters. To no avail. They are ripping off the private and public purse.
That list seat racket is undemocratic. It should be countrywide proportion not region.
Securing a second referendum was never ever going to be easy. Since well over a million voted for pro-indy parties I’d have thought harnessing that in the form of a petition to parliament would have been a brilliant way to generate momentum towards a successful vote next time.
What’s the fucking point of going off half-cocked and losing?
And, as I said above, the SNP will never win an independence referendum on its own. I say to Wingers if you’re really pro-indy as opposed to just pro-SNP, then start preparing for the next referendum now.
Maybe begin by dropping the fucking “more-indy-than-thou” shit and start by thinking about how to build the broad coalition we need to WIN a fucking referendum.
Or you could just keep spitting bile at all your allies. Your choice.
The actual maths is here:
http://www.arcofprosperity.org/
In certain areas, such as my own North Lanarkshire, the SNP 1&2 campaign was entirely misplaced if you are looking at having a wider pro-Yes representation. The SNP were expected to win every seat, and to do so comfortably. Such was the strength of the SNP vote locally that Labour Elaine (Not C) Smith was beaten by the empty chair candidate Fulton McGregor. So an alternative strategy was a MUST here. Likewise Glasgow. If the parties are canvassing and the returns are as good as what the polls were suggesting then a softer approach is required to and SNP 1 and AN Other 2.
I think that what MUST be accepted is that while many people are supportive of the aims and sentiment expressed by the likes of RISE and Tommy Sheridan, that they are not a realistic option for the receipt of a second vote in such a polarised contest. YES has gathered round the SNP, NO is being gathered round the Ruthless Davidson Party for Ruthless Policy Party. Should that continue then having a number of Pro Yes parties will weaken the case for independence, not make it.
In my opinion the Greens are the AN Other party in the above scenario, where they would be the beneficiary when the SNP sweep the boards on the constituency vote. It’s up to the members to keep Mr Harvie and Ms Chapman on the right road, although unlike the Rev, I don’t share his view on Patrick Harvies’ commitment to independence.
I know – totally out there. But don’t forget the Lost Deposits Party in the horse-trading. Let’s face it – they have form in selling their granny (and every student in the country) for a sniff of power.
Just sayin’.
Independence vote is increasing. Indy could get over the line. A couple of years in the bag.
There must have been a high turnout.
Unfortunate there isn’t anyone in Slab with the substance of Robin Cook, who in the 80s, seriously considered taking the Lab MPs to join the SNP for Independence.
We will still need to do it ourselves, persuading the remaining Slab voters.
I’m really disappointed. I know a few (and there’ll be thousands of others who also know a few) who didn’t vote because they believed the media lies that the result was already in the bag.
I also know some (and probably so do thousands of others) who thought it would do no harm to give their second vote to a fringe party, Maybe next time they’ll pay attention to people who know better.
Dr Ew: “Maybe begin by dropping the fucking “more-indy-than-thou” shit and start by thinking about how to build the broad coalition we need to WIN a fucking referendum.”
Don’t take out you disappointment on others. The entire referendum was about building consensus.
The reality in your yelp of pain is Scotland’s traditional fragmentation by clan ambition, and that stands true today, only it’s exacerbated by over 400,000 non-Scots who like being ‘British.’
A million signature petition, who are the Greens going to get to collect that?
I am disappointed that the SNP did not get an absolute majority, but it is not all bad.
Supposing the Greens had vanished in a cloud of chlorine vapour the day before yesterday, and all their voters had voted SNP instead, would that really have delivered six more seats for the Nats? Probably not, and on this logic the pro-independence force in parliament is similar to what it was before.
Also, I would like to see the Greens become the prominent opposition party, so as to replace the Yoons with an independent Scottish political force. So to increase their representation(and be it at the cost of the SNP)is a step in this direction. This will give independistas a voice across more of the political spectrum: The SNP might become centre-right, the Greens centre-left. That could be a Good Thing, and it could help consolidate the viability of the cause for independence.
Finally, as long as British politics provides us with the likes of Dugdale as our opposition leader, they can demonstrate that Scotland is not ready for independent politics (and heck, it might even prove them right!), as Scotland needs credible politicians on both side of any debate. So on that score, having the tank commander replace her is a marked improvement – and sign of good taste on the part of the Scottish electorate.
What I think really needs to happen now is for Scotland to push for an independent broadcaster. Only when the country is liberated from seeing everything through the prism of London can it really develop its own self-awareness and potential.
After a few hours nap.
SNP got over 1 million votes!!
The tories and labour are minorities by a fair distance.
If the Greens or the lib dems want something they can beg.
All can try and force the snp down – call an election and watch the tories and labour get punished.
oops almost forgot –ukip got zilthch –good and there is an EU referendum coming up. Scotland should sit and let the tories fight themselves with labour
The way I see it is this. Everyone who voted SNP on the constituency vote fundamentally supports the SNP. If you fundamentally support the SNP, why wouldn’t you vote for them on the list? If everyone who voted SNP on the constituency vote had also voted SNP on the list, we would now have an SNP majority government.
So shame on those who erected another hurdle for us to clear on the road to independence because of their confusion about how the system works and their gullibility in listening to the media. We must concentrate the pro-independence vote in the only party that has any prospect of delivering it – and I don’t mean the Greens, Rise or Solidarity. Once we have independence, vote any way you like – the more diversity the better. Until then we need to treat it as a single issue campaign and vote SNP at every opportunity.
The d’Hondt system for regional votes is a corrupt system. It is not democratic.
No one’s vote should be worth more than anyone else’s.
The crooked D’Hondt system gives us this result in the Highlands:
Tories 3 Seats Votes 44,693 21.8%
Labour 2 Seats Votes 22,894 11.2%
SNP 1 Seat Votes 81,600 39.7%
That’s right.
With 39.7% of the vote the SNP got 1 seat, but with half that (21.8%) the Tories got 3 seats. and with a quarter of that (11.2) Labour got 2 seats.
In effect 1 Tory vote cancels out 6 SNP votes, or 1 Labour vote cancels out 4 SNP votes
If that isn’t a crooked system I don’t know what is.
That sort of corrupt system has triggered revolutions elsewhere.
You do not have a democracy when one person’s vote does not have the same value as another’s.
Look it is what it is. I wanted another majority SNP government but let’s see what silver linings can be found. Nicola can’t be harassed by the media every two minutes about indy ref 2 since she has a minority government so in the interim they can get on with improving Scotland and with no pressure start persuading Scotland can she can be a nation again.
As much as I’ve wanted independence all my life I feel in my gut that if there is another referendum too soon, we’ll lose again. And I felt in my gut there wasn’t going to be a majority this time though I hoped.
She can hammer away at her TORY opposition both here and in Westminster for the next 5 years and the Tories’ toxicity will remind people why we need to get out of the UK. Ruth D fought a Unionist campaign and got only 22% of the vote. Forget the hard core Unionists and persuade the soft Nos. The remaining Labour voters need to decide if they are progressives or Unionists because I don’t think Scotland particularly wants a party that is both.
I voted SNP twice and have neither a constituency or any list SNP MSPs. Sometimes life just slaps you in the face and you have to get on with it. Nicola has the people skills to manage a minority probably more than Alex did. So it is what it is.
Initially pessimistic on seeing the results this morning, I am feeling quite upbeat now.
1) I believe we need Greens to win the next referendum never mind ‘to call it’ so lets get used to working with them as partners. If they play funny buggers in our Parliament they are finished.
2) Some constituencies clealy went all tactical to stop the SNP. The Tories benefited especially from tactical voting.
3) The electorate is clearly splitting down independence / unionist lines and the independence vote share went up 2% so we are winning.
4) The Greens will bring a touch of radicalism especially on land reform etc and will allow the SNP to retain the ‘steady as she goes approach/don’t scare the horses’ necessary to win over the 10% to YES!
Lets face it – it could be worse!
Some questions I want answers to
1) Why did Denis Robertson do so poorly in Aberdeenshire west?
2) Why did Iain Gray do so well?
3) Why did UKIP not take votes of the Tories?
Was 2xSNP from myself and family and anyone who would listen.
I’m still positive.
I was thinking at least 5 years anyway.
Some of those SNP candidates were awful as well.
Scotland isn’t ready to vote for independence. That’s a hard truth for those who want to see it happen. Losing a quick 2nd referendum could finish the issue for 50 years, so judging the moment is critical. The EU referendum might change things, but I think the Greens (and in reality the SNP) do not want to box themselves into a corner whereby they are obliged to call a 2nd referendum if the country isn’t ready for it. The incrementalist approach to independence over the last decade has taken us closer to it than at any point in history – I think we need to stay the course!
had everyone voted snp1&2, including all rise/solidarity/and greens and the snp voters
the unionists would only have lost 1 list msp but gained 3 greens list msps
At first I was pretty pissed off that Ruth Davidson won Edinburgh Central but then when I thought about even if she had lost she would still be at Holyrood.
Why all the doom & gloom on this website?
Just think how much worse it would be if you were a Labour supporter.
The people voting for Ruth Davidson weren’t voting for their preferred government they were voting for the opposition.
How does the overall voter turnout compare with both the 2011 election and the Referendum? I have seen it suggested elsewhere that a lot of people who supported and voted for Independence in 2014, did not bother to get out and vote this time, but would like to have my facts straight.
If so, this also confirms that the Tories did better than others at actually getting their voters out; and this raises questions of its own.
@Dr Ew.
thinking about how to build the broad coalition we need
——–
Coalition with the Greens isn’t a broad coalition. The Greens are a minority with a few percent of the vote when you subtract SNP tactical voters who thought they could get more ‘YES’ politicians.
For many people, the Greens are seen as far left socialists who would drive business and investment out of Scotland.
Problem is that is exactly the opposite from the people we need to convince that independence is economically viable.
“In the event of Brexit where the Greens don’t support a second referendum, surely the SNP can force a snap election on the issue in a fairly short amount of time, if the public really wants it?”
No. Scottish Governments can’t force an election. All they can do is stand down, but in that event the opposition parties could just choose a new First Minister (if they could agree on who, of course).
‘The first thing to note is that independence is now categorically and unequivocally off the table for at least half a decade.’
Half a decade? Why not just say at least five years? Does half a decade make it sound as if is so much longer than five years.
How can you be certain that no Labour supporter will back a 2ndIndyRef?
I think it would probably be better to concentrate on how to get NO voters to want to vote YES before getting too hung up about a referendum.
Yep the Holyrood system is pretty bad for the winning party. It’s like the more people you get to vote for you overall the more they take away on the list. However remember the SNP had to rely on it for a few years to build the party. It is what it is and we knew what it was when we cast our votes.
So where we are now is 2 shy of an outright majority. Like I said there is nothing to stop the SNP getting it’s bills through. If the unionists dig their heals in the parliament can be dissolved and an election called. Would Slabour even attempt doing that. I think the SNP should force their bills through in that manner as the power is in their hands. The Tories got lucky and they would not be so lucky again and they know it.
For the love of god folks we need a Scottish news. Even if its only phone apps playing video 24/7, updated as often as possible with presenters introducing video with a YES analysis of the narrative.
Surely satire North British News style isn’t as effective as real news videos introduced by cartoon characters if necessary.
Surely out of the million SNP vote we can do this and make a compelling alternate news source that complements the analysis of factual errors and bias by Wings/Ponsonby etc but also creates & pushes an alternative agenda in the form of a video magazine creating mass availability of news blog material.
There is the potential for common purpose with Welsh cousins on UK news that has a similar impact on Wales.
O/T
Sad news about Tannoy. The American-owned Scottish maker of sound equipment is closing its factory in Coatbridge after 90 years and a loss of 70 jobs, with production moving to China.
http://www.whathifi.com/features/tannoy-after-90-years-what-does-future-hold
Brian Macleod at 2:51 p.m.
To understand the D’Hondt system, you need to look at both the first past the post element for constituencies and the list element. It is true that the way the list part works gives an advantage to those who have not done so well in the constituency vote. But that is the point – it is intended to redress the balance. The first past the post part is fundamentally unfair – someone can win with as little as 20% (or even less) of the vote if the opposing votes are spread thinly among other parties. This leads to governments at Westiminster being elected with around a third of the popular vote. D’Hondt compensates for this by favouring those who lost in the constituency vote so that overall, the representation in parliament broadly reflects the view expressed by the electorate. Arguably both parts are unfair but they cancel each other out giving a reasonably fair result overall.
The problem arises when people try to play the system. Tactical voting for most people is a gamble with very unpredictable results. Best to keep it simple and just vote twice for the party you support.
@Grousebeater, @Onwards and, of course, @RevStu
I refer you to my earlier comment:
“Or you could just keep spitting bile at all your allies. Your choice.”
Re the “500 votes” at the top of this article, can someone explain please?
Also where specifically on the list did we fail! Many hundreds of thousands of SNP list votes were for nothing,after all including mi
What I meant to say in my previous posts was
How can you be certain that no Labour MSP will back a 2ndIndyRef?
Re voting system I bet that there are a lot of people who don’t understand how it works.
he Sunday Herald and the National got their wish on splitting the second vote and undermining the confidence of a full first vote.
Remember, Robin Harper supported the Bitters and the three remaining Glasgow Green Cooncillors voted no. Patrick Harvie already tried to bring down the Scottish Government and the rest of the Unionist meejah will be encouraging him to do so again
Nobody’s listening anymore. The BBC and STV and all the media who so successfully ran the campaigns for the Tories, Labour and Greens will ensure that indyref2 remains a pipe dream.
Mike Small sacrificed his Bella blog to make sure this result came in. Common Space fed the ‘left’ leaning middle classes this over and over again: plurality in the parliament etc etc. And d’ye know what? It worked.
Failing to get that majority is the real issue here. I can’t believe the levels of naivety on here about this. Oh let’s all be ‘positive’, lets all analyse the ‘numbers’.
It’s simple, people in the Indy side fell for the Unionist propaganda. There will be wall to wall Tories on our tv’s
instead ofas well as a continuing presence of Labour and now even more Libdem and they will claim they ‘represent’ the ‘new’ Scottish political landscape.And d’ye know what? That’s all that fucking matters to them. Is anyone listening to each other about the whinge about the media already today and all the through the election results last night? Did anyone notice the more the Tories accrued the ‘lighter’ Glenn Campbell became, quite ‘jolly’ I would say.
Job done folks. I’m totally with Stu on this. Just bullshit politics in Scotland whilst the commentariat breathe a Huge sigh of relief…it doesn’t matter how much ye scoff at Jackson Carlaw, it doesn’t matter how ‘phoney’ Ruth Davidson is, it doesn’t matter how much ye rationalise it’s now ‘straight fight’. Is It Fuck.
On the one hand everyone goes on about the media and how they have played a big part and on the other there’s the ‘we have to do something about this’. Well you know who really won last night? Yeah, the media. Does anyone seriously believe that after this result and how it is being spun, that somehow people are now, not going to listen to ‘the media’ because they are the propaganda wing of the establishment?
And people wonder why ordinary punters switch off. We had a really good chance on the back of GE results to consolidate…to really send that message to Westminster, and it does not matter an ounce stating that the Tories only have whatever lesser percentage point they have of the vote. Is that what is being gloated about across our airwaves, is that the take home message. Naw. It never will be now.
Totally fucking scunnered.
“Mr. Cameron, someone in a green t-shirt has just dropped off a petition.”
“What’s the purpose, Mr. Secretary?”
“Scottish independence, sir.”
“How many signatures?”
“Just over a million, Prime Minister.”
“Tell him to fuck off. I’m busy having pork for lunch.”
Yeah, a petition. That’ll work.
There is a real risk that people are missing the actual problem as to why the SNP failed to get a majority.
It was NOT split votes that cost them as there is a core Green vote and simply not enough transfers from Green to SNP to get them two additional seats while recognising the core Green vote who would not switch. The same, obviously applies to the irrelevant RISE and Solidarity.
The problem was with GOTV, traditionally the SNP’s key strength and which clearly let them down. The Tories were able to get out their vote and capitalise on the complete and utter destruction of Labour. Higher turnout in GE15 and Indyref was matched by SNP/Indy voters actually voting. This time it was not.
I suspect there are two main reasons which likely contributed to this.
1. SNP complacency (not necessarily intentional, I think we can all accept that if you are “certain” of victory, putting in that extra hour on a rainy Tuesday night is not always so easy).
2. A consistent, deliberate campaign by the MSM to stoke SNP voter apathy and either lead to them splitting their vote in regions that was always wrong or and this is key, not turning out because they weren’t “needed”.
There could of course be other reasons. The lack of clear Independence Mandate made Independence look a long way off which is likely to be a voter disincentive. Given where a lot of SNP voters now come from, they may have inherited the “Lazy Labour” voters.
These are the issues that need addressed – not vote splits and hating on Greens (or even, to be honest, RISE and Solidarity). The MSM is still playing the long game and they will use increasingly insidious tactics to block the SNP, they played a blinder here, they motivated Loyalist voters and demotivated SNP voters with the one, over-riding message “its a foregone conclusion”.
While this was probably the biggest single factor, the SNP need to be aware of other issues where they failed. They definitely didn’t throw all their cards on the table (one PPB reeated, which was the worst I’ve ever seen from them, for example). There is plenty for the SNP to address and for Independence sake, I hope the realise and do so.
The SNp blaming Split Votes, if taken seriously, would be the worst possible outcome for Independence.
I think that the D’Hondt system has done exactly what it’s supposed to do; bring balance. The balance is in favour of independence, but not too soon. I would have preferred to see a clear SNP majority, if that would have proved to be a balance. Thank God that the balance did not give us a Unionist majority!
Now we have time to do the slow and patient work of demonstrating to the population how much better off we would be, in every way, with independence. We will not do that by calling NOs or UNDECIDEDs idiots, or ranting at them. We need to find ways to show as simply as possible the kind of demonstration Stu did in the Wings issue, The Dividend of Independence. Some people are not open to evidence, demonstration or reasoning. A lady I talked with on Wednesday said, “I don’t like change. I’m afraid of it. So I’ll just vote Conservative, as always”. The continuing of Project Fear by the Unionists feeds this kind of psychological conditioning. We must show that there is more to fear by remaining in the UK, than in claiming our rightful sovereignty, but not by using Project Fear tactics.
Love is the cure for fear. Love manifest as continual affirmation of people we know and meet, building people up rather putting them down, encouraging confidence in themselves as individuals and in Scotland as a society and nation. We won’t be able to do that on the mainstream media. We need a tv station; not internet broadcasting. We need a commercial type tv station that will televise the whole range of programmes that we see on the BBC, STV and Sky. Surely we have the creative, talented and skilled people to do it! We need funding. The ideas of how to raise it needs to up to those with the necessary knowledge and skills.
Having looked through the lists of new MSPs, what strikes me is how many posh people will now be prominent in national life opposing the SNP.
The easy upper-class charm of the likes of James Comyn Amherst Burnett of Leys, Baron of Kilduthie, may well ultimately persuade Scots of the merits of a Tory-run Britain.
But I hae ma doots…
gutted the snp didnt get a majority
but i dont think this will change much
there are council elections in 10 month, if we wish to demonstrate that the snp have a mandate for indy ref 2, the councillors just need to put it in their manifesto, an election is as democratic a means as the greens referendum idea.
SNP have an absolute majority of Scotland at Westminster, which is sovereign. All this talk of losing it’s mandate is horse shit! We are the government of Scotland.
On a lighter note, RISE may now legitimately call themselves FALLEN. 🙂
I think the situation is somewhat more nuanced than Stu’s analysis indicates – SNP votes overall, I believe, went up, but mostly went up where it wasn’t especially useful (urban areas such as Glasgow) and likely went down where it was actually needed (rural areas such as NE Scotland).
I did some analysis of the Glasgow region results in particular. The number of list MSPs elected would have had to have gone up to 10 to add another SNP member (Labour and Green taking places 8 and 9.). As Rev Stu. indicates, the votes for RISE and Solidarity were so insignificant that transferring most of them over to the SNP would have made no difference whatever to that result. More interestingly, transferring as many as 9398 votes from Green to SNP (a Green loss of ~40%) would have taken Patrick Harvie down to last on the list, but would still not have won any more seats for the SNP. (Or indeed changed the result at all except the ordering.)
That’s just one example, of course, but it seems that wherever things changed, it probably wasn’t in urban Scotland.
This, this is what it is going to be like from here on in:
Wings Over Scotland Retweeted
Libby Brooks ?@libby_brooks 7m7 minutes ago Edinburgh, Scotland
Ruth Davidson says that Sturgeon has had ‘legs cut away from under her’ re a 2nd referendum
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BBC saying, ‘Nicola Sturgeon rules out coalition after ’emphatic’ win for SNP’
I have been in the SNP since I was 18. As a certain team in Glesga says:” I don’t do walking away”.
Can the nouvo SNP members and nationalists please give yourselves a good shake. I was there when we had 4MP’s and that was it , 15% of the vote.
Since then we have had a Scottish parliament, an SNP victory, an SNP majority, a referendum, a majority at Westminster and now a minority government 2 shy of majority. Some people want to walk away in a huff. yet I have waited 28 years!
Seriously take your fingers out of your arses and get back to work.
P.S and have a nice day!
Know what? If there was a referendum called tomorrow, I’m not even sure that I would support it. I wouldn’t support it because it is premature, reckless, and doomed to failure while so much groundwork still needs to be done.
To stand any chance of winning, the pro independence lobby cannot rely on a shaky 50% or thereabouts majority. That result delivers an independent Scotland which could slip back into the Union through a recount or appeal. That’s no good. We want it cut and dried. We need a working majority of 60%, 70%, 80% or even higher to lift the decision beyond the realm of all uncertainty. The vote itself should not be our decision, but mere ratification of our decision.
To give ourselves that benchmark of certainty requires us to take that 45% of YES support from 2014, and build it higher.
Our strength is that the support for a YES to independence seems to be rock solid and isn’t going anywhere. Our weakness is that persuasive communication with the Scottish electorate has all to be chanelled through a hostile media which has a complete monopoly on broadcasting, and which has dedicated itself to frustrating our efforts to build support for a YES vote. Be in no doubt, that is where the battle lies. We build, they demolish.
Now we can charge off on a detour to the left fighting Labour, or we can charge off to the right to beat up the Tories, we can fight off one skirmish after another with UKIP, Lib Dems or whoever along the route, but ALL of these battles won or lost simply bring us back to the same crossroads where we want to go forwards towards independence and the powerful BBC will use its considerable power and influence to stop us in our tracks.
Beating Labour is irrelevant to this task. We’ve just done it. Is independence any closer? Doesn’t feel like it. Beating the Tories is irrelevant to this task. Same battles, different flags. Outright majority? We’ve had one. Came close, but no independence.
Independence requires us to build momentum and a groundswell of support for Scotland’s independence, and that means getting our progressive case for Scotland into the hearts and minds of more people, a lot more people. To be successful in that means taking the BBC propaganda and all of its bias out the game.
This single issue, broadcasting, should have a higher priority than oil, taxation, parliamentary majorities, child protection, Europe, currency, nulear weapons or debt. It’s not that it’s a more important issue, but while we passively accept this trespass into our minds of all this Unionist propaganda, we are compromised in every decision we make.
@almannysbunnet (2.40) –
Thanks aplenty.
Ach, as it happens, after that tweet, I went through and put all the historic results into the Websr Shandwick calculator, and it gave Greens one extra one year, and one fewer another. I can’t remember which. Obviously this election, we were disappointed in two regions we felt pretty positive about.
In general, though, I spoke to hundreds of people who were planning to vote Green in the last few weeks, in Edinburgh and Dundee mostly. The main reasons given were:
– wanting to push the SNP to the left.
– liking Green policies best.
– liking Patrick Harvie
– liking Maggie Chapman (in Dundee)
– liking Andy Wightman (in Edinburgh)
– wanting to give the SNP a kick up the bum
Reasons not given:
– mathematical arguments about the voting system.
I could shout on Twitter about how hundreds of thousands of folk voted SNP on the list in Glasgow, Lothian, Central, Mid Scotland and Fife, West, and the North East and that they should have voted Green. SNP supporters could shout that if all the Greens had voted SNP, they might have more seats. Both those things are probably true.
But that thought wearied me. I think folk voted for what they voted for coz that’s what they wanted.
Oh, and I’m not sure how the Green proposal on indyref2 is any less ambiguous tha the SNP one. But I really can’t be bothered.
Absolutely spot on Stu
You can inform them till you’re blue in the face as have others and the same stupid argument keeps coming back generally beginning with phrases like, Aye but, if we just, …followed by drivel
Or nonsense like, If the Yessers..followed by the same mumble mumble shit
They’re wrong and they know it but they won’t admit to making a misguided stupid mistake because it makes them feel stupid so it’s easier to sit behind a keyboard and abuse those who delivered the correct message
You could look at all sorts of sneaky stuff going on for example and say the Greens did their deal with the Tories to hold down the SNP vote and or the BBC and print media’s direct interventions along with some of the online sites achieved exactly what they were trying to do
But in the end the fallout from this is on the heads of those who claim they wanted a drive towards Independence but really they didn’t did they or the Independence drive wouldn’t be short of those extra few seats to guarantee that outcome
Now we will have the crowing and trumpeting of their new found power by the party who benefited the most and who we wanted the least, the Tories, and the party who were a political irrelevance and still are, but the bewildered have just given them the power to stop a referendum,,,the Greens
And they will
I got accused of raging over this which I didn’t, like you I tried to point it out, at least I get a lot less abuse than you so that’ll make everything OK
(Sits back and waits for abuse)
My imagination, no doubt, but there seems to be an approximation of a plethora of accidental and non-accidental Unionist trolls and scrabbling, knuckle-dragging RISE guys and GREENS kind of care for your vegetables first and foremost type of Brit Chai Wallahs passive inhabiting this thread at the mo doing the haute-tempo casuistry shuffle when not in full-denial salsa mode (at least the half-wit despoilers of their ballot papers seem to be burrowing back into their revolutionary, Latte, made an arse of that for the Scottish citizenry, half-wit, latent Anglo-Brit, petit bourgeois cafes}.
Fcuk this for a game of sojers.
Trust the FM will cannily eviscerate them all as and when appropriate over the coming parliamentary period as a precursor, in their current, Carlaw-like hubris, to the permanent fuck you moment of the Treaty of Union abrogation from whence these gangstas face no option but to take a hike.
As an addendum, and I am not an SNP member although I back them, RISE and the pseudo-GREENS and the rest of the opportunist carpet-baggers – like Sheridan and Colin Fox and Coburn, etc – can get on their Norman Tebbit bikes along with Paddy Harvie.
I think a lot of people have to free themselves of the comfort blanket that is the idea that the Scottish parliament has a pro-independence majority.
The parliament does NOT have a pro-independence majority.
The parliament would only have a pro-independence majority if one single pro-independence party has a majority over ALL the other parties.
The parliament has two parties one of whom, the SNP has independence for Scotland while the other party has a sort of, maybe, depending on…, pro-independence vibe.
They are two separate parties and one cannot command the other to support a call for another referendum. It will be a matter for the other party, the Greens, to decide whether the time is right or not for a referendum and their calculations may not be the same as the SNP’s. Self-interest will rule.
On the voting issue. Whatever the polls or the pundits say the result of the election is NEVER known at the time you cast your votes therefore nothing can be taken for granted.
Elections are about voting for something you believe in. No vote is wasted if you cast it for what you believe in. All those people who down through the decades voted for the SNP were not wasting their vote. Even if their candidate was not elected they kept the party alive and in the running towards eventual success.
Elections are not a ‘sweeties for all, event as some seemed to be treating this one. Some seemed to be arguing that the SNP would have lots of votes so they deserved some from the SNP just because they, as small groups had supported independence. That is treating elections and the casting of votes like a scatter at a wedding.
Kaye Adams on the Conservative increase vote.
“By our reckoning Euan, we’re up by eight point one- eh, the Conservatives are up by eight point one.”
The clip is on Twitter
re: Harvie’s one million petition. We already signed it. It was called the “Yes Declaration”.
Stovies.
You’re wilfully missing the point that this time round that people voted for the candidate/party that they wanted, rather than blindly giving a mandate to the SNP. Maybe if less time was spent shouting at Westminster and agitating for another indyref and more time spent actually governing, this situation wouldn’t occur.
Again, it bears repeating since Stu lives in a parallel fascist state where we should all vote the way he wants, people voted the way they wanted to.
Also worth bearing out that it the SNP hadn’t gone both votes SNP, all those wasted list votes could have gone to other pro-indy parties, but I guess that would be getting dangerously close to the truth.
@TD
Not everyone who voted SNP on constituency vote will be SNP, most certainly but not all. If we want people to lend 1st vote we can’t claim ownership of all those votes.
BothVotesSNP tried to shore up second votes. BothVotesYES requires trust & co-operation and only works if it’s en masse but imagine ERS & Westminster if SNP dominated the constituencies & Greens the list seats. That would be a constitutional crisis & UK would throw the rattle out the pram. Lord knows what they would do. In winning we have to actually win.
That we very nearly pulled it off despite everything the media relentlessly hit us with is amazing. I just wonder what if we had stood on Indy ticket to Westminster before Unionists got more organised but though we may have got majority of seats wouldn’t have been majority of votes & Labour wouldn’t have melted as they have.
Almannysbunnet
Amongst the parties that got seats;
The SNP got 45.24% of the votes and 48.84% of the seats.
Say what you want about the D’Hondt system it does adjust the seats to better match the vote.
Cons 23.05% of Votes – 24.03% of Seats
Labour 21.35% of Votes – 18.60% of Seats
Lib/Dem 6.68% of Votes – 3.88% of Seats
Green 3.68% of Votes – 4.65% of Seats
So its not as unfair as the list votes distribution alone would lead you to believe.
(Number are not exact – just taking parties that gained seats so 4% of votes, the smaller parties are not included)*
Breeks,
What you say makes a whole lot of sense. (But wasn’t that part of the SNP’s intent this summer anyway?)
I’m just wondering how all those Labourites in BBC Scotland feel right now. Like Labour in general, they have worked mightily to do the Tories’ bidding, first in the indyref and now in this election campaign, and their only reward is to end up on the scrapheap. They have been taken for complete suckers. Will this possibly change the attitude of those in PQ? Or are they part of the Labour flight to Torydom?
This is spot on. And you know what put the fucking icing on the cake? Supposed supporters of independence adducing Curtice – John Curtice, a proven Britnat shill with an attested record of pro union dissembling and cant as long as your arm, a man overtly and unashamedly funded by the Department for Business and Skills (i.e the UK government) – as a guarantor that it would all be ok to cast your list vote for ‘pro-Indy’ parties.
You’d call it a joke if it weren’t so damn unfunny.
If a list MSP dies, what are the rules? David McLetchie passed away. Was he replaced by next on the regional list? Or just not replaced?
Just for total clarity, I am not an SNP member, my guttedness stems from knowing they are the only vehicle that would have ensured our second chance of indyref2 sooner rather that later and would have told Westminster in no uncertain terms…that we mean business!
Of course David Cameron really ‘got that’ message after the results today. Aye Right!
I’ll start by repeating what I said on the previous thread.
The voting system is designed to produce the sort of result which has occurred.
A sack cloth and ashes reaction to the result is a waste of time and emotion.
As for the specifics of the result.
Could it be that we can sit back and enjoy Ruth’s Rangers learning firsthand what its like to be a large but irrelevant minority in a parliament.
Could it be that not all the Labour mps are diehard-unionist, snp-haters – and are capable of seeing the light.
Just thoughts in the immediate aftermath.
Oh, and one more thing.
Some on this site, including me, had occasion to express disappointment at the ‘civilised’ way the SNP went about its business in the face of some fearsome political and media opposition.
Could that lack of spirit be a contributory explanation to how last night went.
At the very least during the term of this parliament I expect the SNP to get right in their faces.
Bring back the passion, people!
Having gone round the doors with John Finnie during IndyRef1 I can guarantee you he is 100% committed to independence. Remember, he was SNP – he left over NATO membership, not cos he changed his mind on independence. He is as pro Indy as anyone in the SNP.
turnout from 2015 ge
snp 1,454,436
slab 707,147
tory 434,097
lib 219,675
yoons 1,364,919
turnout from 2016 he
snp 1,059,897
lab 514,261
tory 501,844
lib 178,238
yoons 1,194,343
yoons down 100k from ge result
snp down 400k from ge result
Can’t stress this enough. Split Voting did NOT cause the SNP to lose its majority. The numbers demonstrate this quite clearly.
Lack of Get Out The Vote cost the SNP as the higher turn out was disproportionately Unionist.
Amongst other reason the concerted MSM campaign of “its a foregone conclusion” caused this apathy and the missing GOTV. The Sunday Herald and National participated in this MSM lie.
Bill Steele,
Unfortunately, broadcasting is not a matter of money or talent. It is a reserved matter. Westminster would not allow a pro-Scottish channel a licence.
Converting people to yes needs to be done mainly on a person to person basis. Pointing out and correcting mis-apprehensions gently and at every opportunity. It only needs half of us to convert one person each.
Despite the hard work put in by volunteers, most leaflets go straight in the bin after a quick glance.
Billboards, Wee Black Book style with simple, they said … this is the truth, messages are very powerful.
At work so need to look closer later. Initial observation is that the combined Green + SNP vote on the list is higher than that of the Constituencies. You can abstain at constituency level or you could vote for another party. Given the level of Green support and the more left wing policies they were spouting it’s kind of reasonable to think they might have around the percentage support they polled on the list. If this is the kind of abuse they can expect for voting in a non-tactical manner on the list but following there party’s advice at constituency level then why the fuck should they do so in future? How close were the SNP to losing constituency seats?
Last night I thought that the result put to bed an Indyref for at least 5 years however this morning I’m starting to think that last night makes it more likely it’ll happen sooner than that.
It’s pretty clear from last night that the Tories went after and got the hardcore unionist vote. They clearly picked up votes from Labour supporters that put the union in front of their ‘socialism’
That means that Ruth has put the Indy v Unionist split on the table at every FMQ’s and every debate from now on in and to keep her new found popularity I suspect she and her new colleagues have to get louder and brasher in her defence.
Her new colleagues contain some real ‘characters’ (exhibit A – David Mundell’s son, Exhibit B – Adam Tompkins). The Scottish public love being lectured by posh, right wing, out of touch public school boys
Couple this with what remains of Scottish Labour who surely now must realise that a ‘wee bit more devolution maybe’ just won’t cut it as a constitutional position. They will have to pick a side probably after either the Brexit vote or the council elections in 2017.
If Labour has any sense, and that’s a big if, they would realise that there are no votes in supporting the union as the Tories took them all last night. The only support they have left must either be died in the wool supporters or Yes supporters that still identify as Labour. The only way left for them is to back Independence
So come 2018 might there be a ‘socialist alliance for yes’ formed in the Scottish Parliament between SNP,Greens and Labour?
Shrodinger,
Yes, the problem is GOTV not split votes.
Tip Dave Stewart for Presiding officer – one less of them.
SNPx2 for me and family, didnt make much difference in the Highlands in terms of the list vote. Have to agree with K1, the media won it… divide and rule the British way, really all we have done is splinter the pro-indy vote. In that sense it will be less cohesive as the reality of politics takes shape for potential partners the Greens and SNP. The system is there to deliberately stop a majority of any one party. I was really surprised by the first one and don’t expect to see another. In a Machiavellian way I actually think that the SNP should step aside and let the Unionist parties get it on to form a minority government, just think of that as a lesson for getting what you vote for! Besides the SNP could be a fabulous opposition and really hold their feet to the fire as they struggle to do anything. Sadly I think Nicola will be way too responisble and would not want to inflict that on the Scottish populase.
And the problem with GOTV was the complacency generated by the MSM, Common Space, Bella Caledonia, The National, The Sunday Herald, John Curtice, RISE, Tommy Sheridan, Loki…note the indy credentials.
The media does what it does. People choose to believe it and others don’t. There are a lot of serioulsy ill informed people in Scotland. That’s why we are still part of the UK.
Our job is not to try and change the media. As Salmond often said we learn to live with it. Thankfully social media has replaced the creaking printed press. The BBC is pro British despite us paying for it. But then so is the Army and the Navy and the Scottish legal system. That’s what you get with a shared country that’s much bigger than yours.
We are in the union and the media is corrupt, that’s where we are. We will not change the media until independence comes. So Salmond is right we live with it.
Remember that people in Scotland are brainwashed from birth to death. We have managed to deprogramme many people. But there are those that are so far gone logic is lost on them. They are the self harmers.
Our job is to deprogramme the ones with an inkling of insight or minds that are not completely closed. Our job is sometimes painfull, frustrating, exhausting and often seems pointless.
Occasionally some lapse back into old thinking and the media gets to them again. I think that’s what happened last night. Some didn’t turn out and some believed the stories about wasted list votes etc. The media drove the stories as that’s the British states mantra. The media will never be our friends and our true friends will often let us down. But it’s the law of diminishing returns. Eventually the media run out of new tricks and less and less people get conned. That’s when we win!
Here we fucking go 5 years of this Ruth “the SNP has no mandate for a second referendum”
If we only take one thing away from last nights result, it’s that a majority at Holyrood may never happen again.
Not sure how that fits in with calling IndyRef2.
LIST VOTE
Fife & Mid Scotland 8/9
SNP = 120,128
SG = 17,860,
Rise = 1,073
Solidarity = 1,049
even if SG/Rise/Solidarity had all voted snp on the list, the snp would not have taken the 7th list msp, labour would have, the greens lose one.
WillieRennie, no SG/Rise/solidarity candidates standing
Glasgow 9/9
SNP = 111,101
SG = 23,398
Solidarity =3,593
RISE = 2,454
even if SG/Rise/Solidarity had all voted snp on the list, the snp would not have taken the 7th list msp, labour would have,, the greens lose one. .
West of Scotland 8/10
SNP = 135,827
SG = 17,218
Solidarity = 2,609
Rise = 1,522
even if SG/Rise/Solidarity had all voted snp on the list, the snp would not have taken the 7th list msp, labour would have., the greens lose one.
Jackie baillie,slab, no SG/Rise/solidarity candidates standing
Jackson Carlaw, tory, no SG/Rise/solidarity candidates standing
Thank goodness for the SNP1&Green2 votes in these 3 regions, otherwise we could have been looking at a unionist majority ?
Central Scotland 9/9
SNP = 129,082
SG = 12,722
Solidarity = 2,684
Rise = 1,636
even if SG/Rise/Solidarity had all voted snp on the list, the snp would not have taken the 7th list msp, labour would have.. no change
North East Scotland 9/10
SNP = 137,086
SG = 15,123
Solidarity = 992
Rise = 599
even if SG/Rise/Solidarity had all voted snp on the list, the snp would not have taken the 7th list msp, lib dems would have. no change
too bad more people did not vote snp1 green2 in these 2 regions. the snp 1&2 in the above 5 regions would have seen only unionists elected
Alex Burnett, tory, no SG/Rise/solidarity candidates standing
@Laukat says:
“So come 2018 might there be a ‘socialist alliance for yes’ formed in the Scottish Parliament between SNP,Greens and Labour?”
The Labour party would have to split in two first. So many of the current MSPs are diehard Britnats.
Ken Mackintosh on the TV last night, saying although Labour has been damaged, it was all a price worth paying for saving the union.
Having slept a bit and calmed down and discussed a few things with others, maybe no overall majority is not such a bad thing at this stage.
There might have been a feeling of this is the only opportunity to do this so go for another Referendum ASAP. If the SNP did not, they would be accused of going soft on Indy. This way there has to be consensus for one and if it is blocked by the Greens it will reflect badly on them next time.
There is now time to look at the economic case and get key structures and frameworks in place for an independent Scotland. Also, the Tories as the main opposition means they cannot hide as much as they did.
Slabbers are going to have to acknowledge this will be their fate for ever more if they do not address the constitutional question.
Also, should the SNP be defeated by a combination of opposition parties on key legislation, for example repeal of the OBFA, then the opposition will have to take responsibility for that.
Finally, the MSM will shut up about ‘One Party States’ except of course, when it suits them. It is only 2 seats after all. And one if, the Presiding Officer is a Yoon.
FFS, people. A petition?
You signed one yesterday. Only you didn’t even have to write your whole name. Only one letter was required, remember?
And no one, I mean no one, who continues to pay the optional TV License Fee can legitimately complain about the BBC. It’s a British propaganda channel.
You can piss & moan about its supposed fair & balanced charter but London will continue to subvert the independence movement by whatever means is at its disposal.
If beaming into your living room, mind numbing talent shows & panel discussions about celebrity stretch-mark disasters is what it takes to help the plebiscite empathize with their own sense of British values, then so be it.
And there are plenty of BritNat wannabes to replace Jackie Bird & Nicolas Witchell once they’ve exhausted themselves fawning over Royal placentas.
It really is simple. If you wish to weaken the BBC, stop funding it.
mike cassidy says:
6 May, 2016 at 3:43 pm
Could it be that not all the Labour mps are diehard-unionist, snp-haters – and are capable of seeing the light.
Ruby replies
Do you mean msps?
I would think if all their supporters managed it there is no reason why Labour msp couldn’t do it.
If the Greens give any trouble over indyref2, we (the wider Yes movement) would simply need to engage their membership.
Remember – the huge majority of their members are Yes campaigners who joined in the surge after Sept ’14. They are proper Yessers. If it has to be a grassroots takeover of their leadership, so be it.
Be interesting to see the postal vote figures once more!
@Onwards
Agree Slab would have to split but even they can’t be stupid enough to not realise that they can’t continue to hold both opinions in the party and be electable in Scotland?
I find it hard to believe that the died in the wool Labour supporters would loose any sleep over Sarwar and McIntosh departing and if say Stephen Purcell or Henry McLeish stepped forward then I think that would keep most of the remainder of what they have.
Am I right in saying, if you even ignore the Greens as fair weather friends of Independence, that 63 SNP MSP’s face 66 non SNP MSP’s? If so, if a Tory, Labour or Liberal MSP is elected speaker, (there has never been a Labour MSP elected to that post), then that would be 63 SNP up against 65 non SNP’s. So if one of those constituency MSP’s kicks the bucket and the SNP win the by election that evens out to 64-64, and if that is repeated then that goes from 65 SNP MSP’s to 63 non SNP MSP’s?
One can live in hope.
Stephen.
P.S. This doesn’t effect any List MSP’s who leave this mortal coil of course.
Now, more than ever before, is time to boycott all britnat newspapers, and more importantly to refuse payment of the britnat bbc licence tax. Let the britnats pay for these britnat institutions.
There are still achievements that the SNP can be proud of: six additional constituencies and over 1 million votes even after two terms of being in office. This is barely a gradual decline not the falling of a precipice those fannies on the telly would like you to think. The loss of the list seats might be hard to take but think of all those years when coming second got you nothing.
I’m curious to see what it would look like with D’Hondt applied to the constituency totals. None of this wiping the slate clean with a “yeah, but” vote. I might take the time later to work it out, that would arguably show a more democratic representation of our votes.
I was almost feeling a bit sorry for the local SLab candidate knowing he wouldn’t win but had used leaflets which were actually positive and didn’t slag off the SNP once! Then when I turned up to vote, I was confronted by two agents who were very smartly dressed with long black coats and rosettes and I remembered what the Fife Lab in my formative years was like.
Woodrow Wilson said, “Never murder a man who is committing suicide”
Now that Tory gobshites like Tomkins (or some Slovenian woman) will be sitting in Holyrood they will no longer be able to hide behind persona’s on the Internet or words in the paper. They are accountable to the people of Scotland.
But here’s the real positive: every single Slab, LD or Tory yoon has to vote together to oppose the SNP. Every single one. All the time. And still depend on the Greens. What credibility does that give them?
Oh, and £20 on Kezia gone by Monday.
SLAB’s position is absolutely terminal.
Keep attacking the SNP, keep losing their own voters to the Tories as the only way to stop the SNP.
Attack the Tories, start losing their own anti-Tory voters as the SNP are the only way to stop the Tories.
Even if they say nothing, they will likely face a reaction and a loss of voters to the SNP as an anti-Tory solution in 2012. They stil have some way to fall – I can see that cycle continuing each election till they are on 5%.
Can someone tell me what I am missing here? Surely there is now obviously a huge vacuum, a black hole, created by disillusioned ex-Labour voters. I refuse to believe that all Labour supporters, current or ex…. are Unionists. So …. Surely a huge chunk of those votes could be harnessed by SLab going pro- or even neutral (advocating free vote) re indy. In the absence of that, what about a pro indy Lab type party stepping into the breach? LFI anyone? If the supposedly die hard red left move en masse to indy.. job done?
Well done SNP btw… in the face of the usual, engineered insurmountable odds 🙂
Independence was not on the agenda anyway because it was not being offered all we got was maybe aye maybe no and snp rightly paid price there was 7 percent loss of snp votes to tory those tartan tories who mainly vote SNP for independence because that was off agenda they went home labour lost slightly more than that to snp and tory. I am glad snp did not get a majority they did not deserve one I do not regret giving my 2nd vote to solidarity and when the SNP grow a pair and offer UDI or referendum no ifs no buts they will get their majority again this is the price that is to be paid for aspiring to mediocrity. Mediocre Nicolas, if she is not careful that is what she will go down as. At least I always knew where Alex salmon stood.
Well all those folks deliberately spoiling their constituency papers in protest because the SNP were guaranteed a majority look like complete idiots now.
Shows what happens when your ego gets in the way.
At K1, you speak for me 100%, as does the Rev. But then I was out there on social media, telling folk BothvotesSNP.
I’m so angry and disappointed, I still haven’t slept.
Trying to get some to understand the gravity of the situation, is the same shit, as telling folk, don’t split your vote, we have to have a SNP majority.
I posted it, when I said I was nervous, and I am one of those activists that has worked for months -for a majority. I kept saying, without it, we are fucked.
Its bloody laughable, that after years of watching Slab implode, this thread contains references to them miraculously finding their lost intellect, or integrity, and supporting SNP. Good luck with that one, folks. Watch as they side with Ruth, they have nothing to lose.
The final slap just delivered. Elaine C Smith on Bella, on her friend Nicola, asking for both votes. Smith voted Green on her 2nd vote, because SNP sounded ‘greedy’.
Jesus fucking wept.
Again, Rev and Bateman are calling the aftermath correctly. Don’t worry yourself about referendums, there ain’t gonna be one. This was our chance, when we had a hapless opposition, not one backed by Cameron.
Ruth banged on about another referendum, for one purpose. She had done her homework, and knew she had the media.
Greetings from Malaysia. Quite surprised and disappointed with the results.
I just want to state that AMS is quite fair in distributing the seats in the Parliament. I think someone had mentioned that the SNP was slightly overcompensated in terms of seats. AMS in Scotland was designed to be a bit less proportional. If it were proportional, I think SNP will get a few seats less.
The constituency vote is a red herring. The number of votes is irrelevant. What matters from the contituency votes is the NUMBER OF MSPs elected as this will be factored in the list/d’Hondt calculation.
The most important vote is the list vote. It is the percentage from this vote that will determine the list MSPs, while taking into account the elected MSPs. For example NE Scotland contributes 17 MSPs altogether. If SNP gets 50% of the list votes, it should be entitled for 8.5 MSPs roughly. If they already got 10 constituency MSPs, they have already been overcompensated. Therefore all list seats will go to the non-SNP parties.
That is why it it terribly important to vote SNP twice, especially on the list vote. That was why Mark McDonald got elected. Because of the strong list votes.
If you support SNP, you can see why this matters very much. As the Rev had said many times, AMS is not meant for tactical voting. It can take place in FPTP system and this was employed against SNP in some constituencies in this election. Since SNP lost some of the regional votes, list MSPs cannot be elected.
I rather 66 SNP MSPs rather than a coalition government any day. But we work with the hands we are dealt with.
[I caveat this opinion as many other factors can/must be considered first]
I think a Scotland wide list system wouldn’t work to the SNP’s advantage. One of the reasons we’re as close to a majority is because the country is split into 8 regions. OK so the Greens might get more seats. So, however would the LDs, Labour and Conservatives. Not to mention fucking UKIP.
Also perhaps one of the first things on the agenda should be putting in place a mechanism like, allegedly, they have in Westminster, for raising issues in Holyrood by petition. If the shit’s really hitting the fan then a 100,000 signatures, verifiable via NI number perhaps, online would more than warrant a second referendum. The Greens can’t complain as it’s a modification of their idea. None of the other parties could repeal the legislation backing it without a mandate. Lib Dems couldn’t really complain as they got a referendum on AV, not their choice, as part of their coalition deal. Hell the Greens could even front it as being their idea. Removes a lot of pressure from the SNP.
Everything changes,Everything stays the same….
Frustrating,is my immediate reaction to the election result however,there is some clarity IMO.
Nothing will ever change,while the BBC/MSM are allowed to continue with their now well documented pro-union bias.
Commonspace/BellaCaledonia are also revealed as ‘soft’ pro-Indy sites,sheep in wolves clothing,that’s ok,as long as people now recognise them as such.
WoS remains as the no. 1,’hard’ pro-Indy site,other ‘hard’ pro-Indy sites offer excellent analysis/opinion (weegingerdug,newsnet,grouse beater….).
The MSM is in slow decline as we know,their influence is slowly diminishing,the Elephant in the room is the BBC,it is the real anti-democratic ‘party’……..reforms are 100% required,this simply cannot be allowed to continue….propaganda no more.
@dair
yep that and tactical voting by the unionists as well
oh….i forgot, you cant game the D’Hondt voting system, kelly says so and he’s a pheso..phepso… erse
an SNP1&2 would have paid divideds in this region and we would have replaced the greens Finnie with an snp msp. I argued for this voting tactic here, but finnie being a comitted yes man, I doubt it would change any referendum vote in holyrood
Highlands and Island 6/8
SNP = 81500
SG = 14,781
Solidarity = 793
Rise = 889
if SG/Rise/Solidarity had all voted snp on the list, the snp WOULD have taken the 7th list msp,
However, Finnie has a personal SNP vote,
Orkney & Shetland, no SG/Rise/solidarity candidates standing
I also argued that there should be an snp1&2 vote in the south region, even to the extent of telling rise/greens/solidarity that they should not stand any candidates at all in this region
South of Scotland 4/9
SNP = 120,217
SG = 14,773
Solidarity = 1,294
Rise = 1,097
even if SG/Rise/Solidarity had all voted snp on the list, the snp WOULD have taken the 7th list msp by 366 votes, and had 4 list msps, not 3, (tories lose 1 =Brian Whittle )
John Lamont, tory, no SG/Rise/solidarity candidates standing
Finlay Carson, tory, no SG/Rise/solidarity candidates standing
John Scott, tory no SG/Rise/solidarity candidates standing
Oliver Mundell, tory no SG/Rise/solidarity candidates standing
Iain Gray slab no SG/Rise/solidarity candidates standing
had these 2 regions taken my advice, the snp would now have a majority, regardless of the short fall in constituencies
It’s been said before, but today sees the end of right-wing versus left-wing politics and the definite beginning of pro-indy versus anti-indy politics. A step forward in my opinion.
Far to many people still believed that the list vote or regional vote or second vote was a vote for your second choice of party,
there were over 60,000 tweets about the election and skimming through them all last night you could tell 90% had no real conception of how the regional system worked,
the `comedian` Limmy or daft Limmy tweeted last night `I voted SNP/Green. Let’s see how this goes`.
and this morning he said,
`Just learned that the more constituency seats you win in a region, the fewer regional seats you’ll get, due to the equation` and `
It’s pretty much your regional votes divided by how many seats you won in that region. I only found out today. Haha`.
`I got what I was after. SNP minority, relying on Greens`.
it is not democratic when you have a voting system that the vast majority of citizens clearly do not understand.
The BBC Scotland Election night results programme last night was very odd in that they (apart from the panel) only seemed to interview the non-SNP victors and seem to just make a passing mention to the SNP seats gained from Labour.
Lots of emotion evident today and that is quite understandable.
But please all pause for breath…..
The vote is in and we can do post mortems until the cows come home but it isn’t going to change the result.
Throwing accusations and counter accusations about will not change the result.
But stand back and look! What do you see?
Answer; Scotland Vs The Tories. It’s like Goodies Vs the Baddies. It’s really, really simple now.
No more three way splits with the Unionist anti-Scotland vote and it is an Anti Scotland Vote.
I make no apologies for saying this. A vote for the Union is a vote against the best interests of Scotland.
That qualifies as Anti Scottish!
Forget all that SNP Bad stuff. It’s Really Bad now. The Tories are Really Bad!
The Baddies are the official opposition!
And that leaves Labour and the LibDems in a very interesting position.
The LibDems got killed off at a Westminster level because of their association with the Tories.
Labour got killed off because of their association with the Tories during the IndyRef.
Do they want to be reduced to dust by getting behind Ruthie Tank Commander in Holyrood?
Each and every Labour and LibDem MSP is now either a Tory follower or Pro Scotland.
Abstaining is not an option. They either get behind Scotland, in the shape of the Scottish Government, or they really can be labelled as Tories. There’s no room for doubt now. It is Tories all Together or Pro Scotland.
They have a clear choice and a decision to make.
Ruthie has done us a favour.
young Green lad, Greer (?) was on radio today a couple of times including Cull Kaye and he seemed fairly categorical that the Greens are a pro-indy party and that they fully supported the idea that a referendum should only be supported if public opinion showed there was support for it, and that EU withdrawal was a possible. In answering a question on another programme from a yoon about how there was no mandate cos SNP didn’t have majority, he said ‘but the Greens are pro indy, so there is a mandate, I campaigned for Yes, and anyway, in 5 years of a parliament you can’t predict all the scenarios that might require a referendum.
I was worried that if SNP didn’t get majority, there was no protection against Brexit, but at least I now think that protection is there. In some ways, I wish little Britain would vote Brexit to give us that chance, but I think there will be too many bottlers in their gang.
Schrodeingers cat – it is very presumptuous to think all solidarity rise and green voters would vote SNP if those parties did not stand. I am so angry with the SNP that if those parties did not stand I would have voted no one this election the SNP have taken people for granted and offered no reason to vote for them . The SNP has always been about independence and for the first time they did not offer it. Unforgivable and rightly put is he’d. The SNP are not the yes movement arrogant snp voters need to get that right out their head or risk losing more voters.
You can say all the live long day that the result was not caused by the ‘spit vote’ but it was?
Just get the whole Indy movement telling everyone it’s a foregone conclusion that the SNP will win a majority, then get the Herald and The National to give these ‘new’ ‘radical’ voices a platform, and Robin McAlpine to drive the middle class vegan bandwagon about how the ‘left’ has to come together against the SNP’s corporate credentials, throw in a sad tale from Loki the lost one. Get John Curtice to pen a pile of shite as if he is neutral cause he’s the only living psephologist in Scotland and hey presto!
That is the ‘recipe’ of vote splitting that produced that level of non engagement from those in the Indy movement who did not come out to vote for the SNP yesterday.
The Tories are laughing all the way to armageddon. With Labour puppy like yapping: we saved the Union, clap us too….
Wanna know what will split the Indy movement even more? Telling people that Labour in Scotland may have to consider becoming independent of it’s own UK party and then maybe they’ll become less toxic. I mean seriously we just got fucking rid of them last year and wiped a lot more of them last night, what will it take for people to wake up and notice it does not make a blind bit of difference.
Why? Because they are paid a very good salary as part of the Labour machine in the UK. Why would they split away…oh…wait, would that mean they would become more like ‘real’ socialists, ye mean like RISE, or Solidarity, or SSP or any number of small parties that could form to represent the working poor in Scotland?
What are people smoking? I want some of that…cracked crazy kookery!
I’m away to lie down. I’ll say no more about this on Wings, thanks for letting me get this off my chest folks, I’m so fucking disappointed. And no amount of ‘silver lining’ rhetoric will take that away. 🙁
Schrodeingers cat – it is very presumptuous to think all solidarity rise and green voters would vote SNP if those parties did not stand. I am so angry with the SNP that if those parties did not stand I would have voted no one this election the SNP have taken people for granted and offered no reason to vote for them . The SNP has always been about independence and for the first time they did not offer it. Unforgivable and rightly punished. The SNP are not the yes movement arrogant snp voters need to get that right out their head or risk losing more voters.
My big question is why was there no exit polling a strange similarity to referendum and another strange result.
Dair says:
6 May, 2016 at 3:17 pm
1. SNP complacency (not necessarily intentional, I think we can all accept that if you are “certain” of victory, putting in that extra hour on a rainy Tuesday night is not always so easy).
2. A consistent, deliberate campaign by the MSM to stoke SNP voter apathy and either lead to them splitting their vote in regions that was always wrong or and this is key, not turning out because they weren’t “needed”.
—————
Neither of these 2 issues were helped by the dishonest campaign ran over months by the ‘radical left’ parties and their blogs.
Telling people the SNP would get a majority on constituency seats alone, so voters were safe to vote differently on the list.
Secondly, the amount of votes for RISE was tiny, but the amount of poison they spread implying the SNP were the new Tories/new Labour was demoralising and had widespread coverage, in old and new media.
And indy supporters on the left.. doing the unionists job for them with the Sun endorsement. How fucking short sighted. Is bashing the SNP non-stop for a short-term issue, a week before an election, really more important than independence for our country ?
Anyway, we have to deal with the cards we have, and work out the best way to move forwards.
Thank you to the Scottish tories and unionist party for putting the constitutional question squarely in the middle of Scottish politics now.
They opened up the wound of the refurendum to beat an SNP majority now it’s time to discuss it.
K1,
You can’t blame RISE, Solidarity, Greens for acting in their own “enlightened self-interest” as if they were guided by some “invisible hand”.
The problem is not them and not those that split their vote. It is the way the MSM portrayed the election as a foregone conclusion, including the “impartial” BBC and most importantly the supposedly Indy-supporting Sunday Herald and National.
Effectively the hollow support of the Herald Group papers was found out. They have no interest in Independence, just taking Indy supporters for a bath. Indeed, they will actively sabotage Independence when they choose to.
Anybody have link to postal votes cast per constituency
Some good news in case anyone is getting depressed by the post-mortem:
Angus Millar SNP won the council by-election in Glasgow Anderson/City, the seat vacated by Gordon Matheson. So an SNP GAIN over Labour, whittling them down gradually but we’ll get the rest of them next year. Results here https://glasgow.gov.uk/index.aspx?articleid=18481&fPst=1 but no breakdown on iterations to get from 43% on the first count to get over the 50% threshhold.
The academic somehow neglected to point out who’d exaggerated it – people like him.
Shyster BBC style more like, very very successful for the tory party though.
Two UKOK tweesters say it all today, UKOK rancid The Graun delighted to boost Harvie. That’ll teach us another Guardian lesson we’ll never forget.
Libby Brooks ?@libby_brooks 12m12 minutes ago Edinburgh, Scotland
Patrick Harvie with his new Green MSPs: SNP minority gov’t is going to have to work with others
With a goon like Tomkins winning his list tory seat on 4000 votes, or what Green’s handed Ruth. It really is rule Britannia in their Scotland region. Well done Greens
Adam Tomkins Retweeted
Stephen Daisley Retweeted Alan Roden
Alan Roden @AlanRoden
The Queen’s two residences in Scotland are now in Tory seats. (h/t @KKeaneBBC) #sp16
Rule Britannia.Stephen Daisley added,
Correct me if I’m wrong here Rev but surely it wouldn’t matter if the presiding officer was from the unionist parties or not, they’re not there to take a partisan view, if the SNP decide to go for a second referendum its not in the power of the presiding officer to prevent it, unless it truly is not within the competence of Holyrood to hold one without Westminster’s approval,in which case they would be duty bound to call it outwith the Scottish parlys remit,
or am I being naive?
Possibly a part of the reason for Labour’s slump was down to lack of activists.
They were probably unable to bus their usual high numbers of activists up from England as they were needed down there to campaign for the English council elections.
Onwards wrote Neither of these 2 issues were helped by the dishonest campaign ran over months by the ‘radical left’ parties and their blogs.
Telling people the SNP would get a majority on constituency seats alone, so voters were safe to vote differently on the list.
Secondly, the amount of votes for RISE was tiny, but the amount of poison they spread implying the SNP were the new Tories/new Labour was demoralising and had widespread coverage, in old and new media.
The problem with that line of argument is that it gives RISE and the rest of the Far Left much more credit for their ability to get their message out there than they actually deserve.
In reality, if you aren’t active on political twitter (or read a tiny circulation newspaper) you probably won’t hear from them all campaign.
The average Joe will, if they get anything, get their opinion about the election off brief moments on TV (which admittedly take their editorial from the papers no-one reads but they don’t invite RISE on the main evening news), That creates the apathy, not RISE who literally no-one is listening too.
valerie closed her post at 4:06pm saying:-
“Ruth banged on about another referendum, for one purpose. She had done her homework, and knew she had the media.”
You’re right there—–Davidson worked for the BBC as a journalist before going into politics!! 🙁
“Karmanaut says:
6 May, 2016 at 4:06 pm
Well all those folks deliberately spoiling their constituency papers in protest because the SNP were guaranteed a majority look like complete idiots now.
Shows what happens when your ego gets in the way.”
Quite Frankly that’s bull.
I spoiled my paper in the constituency vote. I voted Green on the list. What happened? SNP got in with an increased vote, took all the seats in the central area and therefore got NOTHING from the list.
In my area SNP gained a majority, their objective was achieved on the first vote alone and they simply weren’t going to get ANY list seats. It made perfect sense to vote for the Greens as the next most likely recipient. In fact it could more likely be said that RISE and Solidarity took votes from the Greens in that respect, with a combined total of all non SNP pro-independence votes being 6.5%. That meant one more unionist and one less pro-indy.
We have to get smarter about there is and adopt regional tactics. Scotland wide DOESN’T work.
I voted SNPx2. I wanted a majority of at least 6 like last time, instead it’s 6 for the yoons, (and I include Greens in that). But, and here’s the rub, maybe it’s for the best? We might have lost the Independence Referendum again this time, same old yoon pensioners, not enough austerity for those that need to wake up and smell the coffee. Well you have 4 more years, and more to inhale those fumes you pile of “working class” Unionist Scum.
What we need is 4 more years of brutal tory cuts, (I know this will effect me as well as others, but there is fuck all any of us can do about it). Cuts, cuts and more cuts, people really feeling the pinch. A Brexit, followed by more EVEL. Maybe even fiddling with the Barnett formula? It’s said that people are at their best when tottering on the precipice. Their life might flash before them, and some might think, “if only…”?
Time these silly buggers that voted from Labour to Tory to save their precious Union got a taste of their own medicine. Silly fuckers.
As someone said, working class tories. What a shower of self hating arsehioles.
Stephen.
Onwards, why was Nicola photographed with a sun newspaper in an apparent endorsement of that dirty paper that 10 years ago ran the headline if Scotland votes SNP you can put Scotland head on a noose? The sun newspaper in comparison endorsed the SNP on election day I wonder why?
Jamie says:
Schrodeingers cat – it is very presumptuous to think all solidarity rise and green voters would vote SNP if those parties did not stand
Im not for a minute suggesting they would, just pointing out that if they had this would have been the result and that it was the failure to pursue a tactical vote that allowed the unionists this victory
eg jamie would you have voted snp1&2 in the south region if 130k snp voters were planning to vote for rise/solidarity etc in central?
if we had been more organised between the indy parties, the snp would have a majority, the oips would be singing this morning and the yoons relegated to the cheap seats at the back
1. the snp manifesto was designed to give them the option to call or not call a referendum. this was the correct option. to commit either way before seeing the result of the eu and its effect on the support for yes, would have been wise
2. until we control all 32 councils, we cant actually run a referendum. we cant force gcc to organise the polling booths, and refuse is exactly what they would do if and when cameron vetoed the idea and tells the yoons to abstain
3. a democratic mandate can be sought in 11 months time at the said council elections, simply add a demand for indyref2 to all candidates manifesto. sorted
‘CHANCELLOR George Osborne has claimed the Tories in Scotland have deprived the SNP of an overall majority at Holyrood’
If I didn’t know any better, I would think the National was just trolling us now.
Valerie 😉
Jamie says:
the SNP have taken people for granted and offered no reason to vote for them . The SNP has always been about independence and for the first time they did not offer it. Unforgivable and rightly punished
FFS – Can’t you think more than one move ahead ?
It was voters like yourself that have ensured we probably don’t even have the chance of a second referendum anytime soon !!
Of course the SNP played it down. They didn’t want to run this election 100% on the constitution because of what just happened.. Yoon tactical voting denying an SNP majority due to constituency seats in rural/wealthy areas..
Think about it for a second. 60-70% NO voters in these areas.
The idea was to split the vote on other issues, not consolidate it against the SNP.
Once they safely had a majority then they could start to make the case for independence again.
Jamie @ 16:22 said:
You make a fair point that “lending” votes is a two-way street, but this kind of self-indulgent posturing is definitely unhelpful. As the old saying goes, “the perfect is the enemy of the good.” The SNP were in no way backsliding over independence or anything else, and to suggest otherwise is simply self-defeating. It only assists the age-old Unionist strategy of “divide and conquer”.
Congratulations to the Conservatives on winning the Holyrood elections. Going by the media coverage the SNP must have come a poor second.
@ K1
I don’t think Robin McAlpine is a vegan (I know you didn’t explicitly say he was) – when I heard him give a talk a couple of weeks ago, he’d just consumed a fish supper and was praising its quality!
——-
@ sunniva
Yes, if a list MSP departs, for whatever reason, the seat is taken by the next unelected person on the list. If there is no such person, the seat remains vacant (eg Margo).
——–
@ all
Surely the ideal candidate for Presiding Officer is James Kelly? 🙂
Graun crew really UKOK excited now. A detected more radical Holyrood will be great, just not with the actual radical Scotland running Scotland independence stuff, which would too much, more radical. We’re all fucked.
Libby Brooks ?@libby_brooks 24m24 minutes ago Edinburgh, Scotland
Andy Wightman: we detected on the campaign trail an appetite for a more radical Holyrood; this is unprecedented opportunity
2 retweets 0 likes
Libby Brooks ?@libby_brooks 26m26 minutes ago Edinburgh, Scotland
New Green Msp Andy Wightman says local democracy will be big theme of next parliament; room to push on council tax & urban land reform
So, that’s it, then. What we’re about to have in Holyrood is, simply, pro-indy-ism vs pro-Union-ism for the next five years.
Ruth the Mooth will gie it laldy for the no surrender-ists, backed up by what remains of Labour plus the Tory-lite Lib Dems.
The Greens will… well, we can only wait and see if they’ll be fence-sitters, soft Tories, pro-indy-ists or what.
And thank Christ the SNP has Nicola Sturgeon to fight Scotland’s corner. She will give as good as she gets – and it will be never-ending from Ruth the Mooth, Rule Brittania’s attack dog.
It’s certainly going to be… interesting!
The system throws up every obstacle in our way it can. Manipulation by MSM, voting systems and tactical voting. and it is up to us how we circumvent this.
Is the SNP vote still stacking up? You bet. Is there still an appetite for Independence? I would say more than ever.
If trying to make positives out of the situation we are in is ‘silver lining’ rhetoric, then so be it. Despite feeling gutted about the result, I honestly feel this situation can be worked for the good long-term.
I was first able to vote in 1979, that year was etched in my mind with so many disappointments that my allegiance to Independence waivered. But not now because I feel the mood is changing slowly but surely.
Every time Ruth Davidson tries her Indy is dead line, she can be slapped down in public to her face by a First Minister of a Parliament whose party who got a mandate she could only dream of.
Grendel says:
We have to get smarter about there is and adopt regional tactics. Scotland wide DOESN’T work
correct.
all arguements from both sides argue for or against using scotland wide senarios and then cherry picking a region to highlight their point.
what was needed was a region by region assessment and an agreement between us all to act accordingly in each region.
we couldnt agree to tactical vote to get rid of the unionists and maximise our own vote. the unionists had no such problems
@ Achnababan
1) Why did Denis Robertson do so poorly in Aberdeenshire west
I was wondering that too. Initially I thought the LibDems and Tories had conspired. But now, looking at the figures, the Tory has gained an amazing 7,734 votes nearly trebling his total. But the LibDem has also gained 2,887 votes. Turnout ws up 6% which on an electorate of approx 55,000 should have provided an extra 3,300 voters.
Dennis lost 1,028 votes. The Labour vote hardly changed and the Greens didn’t stand.
Where did the extra 10,000 mystery voters come from. Were all those 16 – 18 year olds Tories?
Maths is not my strong point and I haven’t got figures for the current electorate. It was 53,779 in 2011. But it is curious.
Suck it up, suckers
Libby Brooks tweets
Ruth Davidson says Sturgeon has legs cut from under for indyref2.
This detestable, nasty Tory now has wall to wall coverage, with every arse licking hack running after her.
Welcome to Yoon World, folks. Let the REAL brainwashing begin, so lie back etc.
Buck the good ship Green Party and all who sail in her.That buckin spanner Patrick Harvie really boils ma piss.
Oh we’re willing to go into a coalition he cried… You are in one you fuckwit… with the rest of the Unionistas.
The roll back will begin as soon as Holyrood reconvenes.As the Rev points out another referendum is off the table for a political generation at least and getting any sort of leverage around infrastructure projects will be strangled.Greens shoutin ye cannae dae that.
Stand by for much gnashing of teeth when the budget comes around and watch the ongoing enquiry into the Tram fiasco as well as calls for an Edinburgh schools and Forth Bridge enquiry to be kicked into the long grass.
Ruthie cannae wait tae put the boot in even if it means taxing the arse off the population via the Green trade off.I expect the cooncil tax freeze to be lifted with immediate effect for instance
In essence this minority government is doomed by the very fact it’s an SNP administration coming off the back of a majority. Bleak days ahead methinks.
Sturgeon in ruling out even attempting some sort of arrangement with the Greens is kicking at least 10% of the SNP’s voters who voted SNP in the constituency and Green on the list in the teeth. They clearly voted for a coalition.
As for the Greens not constituting a majority for another referendum if the circumstances call for it that is SNP stupidity. I campaigned in RIC with the Greens, the Green party formed RIC with the SSP.
So the SNP is pretending there is not a Yes majority in the parliament, well I may well never vote SNP again then.
The SNP very clearly does not have all of the Yes voters.
As for your tweet about the Lothians list Rev Stu, the Women’s Equality Party got 3,800 odd votes, blame them as well as the Greens why don’t you? The truth is the SNP is being squeezed for not being bold enough when it had a majority. Having to be mugged by your members at conference over Land Reform was not a good look. Having a woman leader is not enough, too many laurels leaned on, too much safety rested on. Like Yes Scotland in the referendum.
I know I could be wrong, but after the referendum I had this sick feeling that we were shafted, and it’s a similar feeling I can’t seem to shake today.
Blue tory unionist comedy’s not very comical.
Has any Scottish Tory tweeted something like the below at Cameron, who to be fair does actually run Scotland, on what was it, 1 tory MP. Bugger, just reminded self Son of Fluffie toryboy won too.
Kevin Hague ?@kevverage 26m26 minutes ago
No question SNP are dominant party in Scottish politics, but must remember they don’t have majority voter support
A number of folk on here saying that they cannot believe so many Scots voted Tory. This was not voting for the Tory party that Scotland abandoned after Thatcher; this was Unionists voting for the only party they believe will defend the Union. We’ll never bring these people over to Indpendence, but as Labour becomes even more irrelevant, we’ll eventually win over the ones who have stuck with Labour for the time being. I read somewhere recently that “the hunter needs to be patient, because the hunted always makes mistakes”. The YES movement is the hunter – let’s be patient, because NO will make more and more mistakes – they already are.
Excuse my ignorance, but what is GOTV? Not up to speed on my FLA’s.
All I can say is that the ‘flower power ‘ Yes optimism of 2014 has hardened significantly. A fast lesson in the mores of the Brit State and Brit media. Those in denial need to get up to speed fast. There is no longer room for any dalliances. Some idealistic extras will need to keep for again.
SNP x2 for me also but not automatic to start with. The Greens dont have the street experience for this fight.Unity under the SNP is the only show in town now to get Independence but they must move when the time is right and keep the fire up on the Tories – the rest are insignificant now. Aye straight fight it is.
Sanctimony aside Muscleguy, what’s the plan then, ref2 wise?
Also “The SNP very clearly does not have all of the Yes voters” means nothing now too.
“Brian McKay says:
6 May, 2016 at 5:06 pm
A number of folk on here saying that they cannot believe so many Scots voted Tory. This was not voting for the Tory party that Scotland abandoned after Thatcher; this was Unionists voting for the only party they believe will defend the Union. ”
The clue is in the name: The Conservative and UNionisT party…
Not often I would say this but I disagree entirely. Last night was the last writhings of the union giving them a little respite but that is all. We have been hammered relentlessly for 18 months and they hardly touched us. That was a far better result than it looks at first sight and this will soon become obvious
All secondary schoolchildren in Scotland should be taught how the voting system works . It should be compulsory , and it would need to be an SNP government that legitimised it , the rest won’t . Maybe then in five years from now new voters won’t be so duped .
@Schrodingers cat
Thanx for answering my question on turnout – as I suspected, the SNP vote fell by far more than the Yoon vote. It’s all about GOTV, as someone else noted.
Laukat@3.47pm
It’s pretty clear from last night that the Tories went after and got the hardcore unionist vote. They clearly picked up votes from Labour supporters that put the union in front of their ‘socialism’
I hope that the SNP are going to do an in-depth analysis of how votes were apportioned in the various constituencies then we might be able to extrapolate what actually went on.
There always has been a core of the Labour vote which was quite close to the typical Tory when it came to certain issues. We have them down here in the Tory Deep South of Scotland, as well as the 4×4 tweedy set. These are people who were employed by industries (which no longer exist here) in the days of almost full employment. You might call it a trade union vote.
The Labour party was their party as long as it protected their interests. They bought their own house and retired quite comfortably but if you had met them back in the day, quite a few of them had little sympathy for issues of social justice and could be as hard-nosed as Tories when it came to those benefits which they saw as handouts to the undeserving. However, they would continue to vote Labour, putting up with the whole package reluctantly.
As they aged ( aren’t we supposed to be more right wing as we grow older?) they might have graduated to being full-blown Tory voters, but the Labour party became more right wing and more accommodating of their prejudices so they continued as Labour voters. However, as a result, they can comfortably move to voting Tory if necessary, a miscalculation by New Labour.
I believe that those who had retained a genuine attachment to Labour values, mainly left to join or give their vote to SNP or other indy parties. What remains is a core vote whose natural home is the Tory party. Having made the jump, it’s doubtful that they will go back to Labour.
I am not convinced that there is a genuine emotional attachment to the Union. Behind it all is likely to be a set of prejudices which they believe – correctly – are best expressed and supported by Westminster right wing governments.
Just like Oliver’s Rant, I think that the hostility shown towards what should be their country’s independence conceals deeper reasons which they would hesitate to express. Instead, it’s Nationalists that they accuse of all kinds of negative motives, because they distrust anyone who seems to threaten the status quo, which they feel has served them well.
In short, people do not always vote just for their own advancement as has been observed before – and understood by right wing parties – but from a kind of schadenfreude. It’s another relic of our ancient social past and is a determination to maintain one’s place in the pecking order. Expressed crudely as ” beggar my neighbour” it has long been part of human nature and shouldn’t be ignored if you want to understand why people might vote against something which could lead to a better society for all.
( Sorry for the long post. It’s just displacement therapy after yesterday’s result. Feel free to skip over.)
‘The Tories did well in Scotland’ pish on TV constantly.
The Union, to some, is more important than the destruction the Tories are meting out on England’s NHS, attacks on the poor & unemployed, the despicable treatment of the disabled, creeping privatisation of public services, Billions on Trident… the list goes on.
WTF have people become?
Just a word to say: Hell will freeze over before the UK leaves the EU. This is not going to happen so don’t fall for all the hype.
Question: why is this hype going on at this time ???
Dont be fooled, think of their agenda.
Look Muscleguy. Follow the money indeed via RT’s from hard core conservative Ruth and fans Scotland. With no majority, no referendum. Presumably YESers like you planned for this?
Historywoman Retweeted
RETURN OF THE KING ?@hondo1650 2h2 hours ago Stirling, Scotland
@kevverage @2351onthelist without their Indy2 threat and no majority the #snp are an open book now. Follow the money
Grendel, ‘Get Out The Vote’ apparently.
Unfortunately, a huge number of the Scottish population don’t bother with, or just aren’t interested in politics. If you are one who actually is interested, like the ones who comment on Wings regularly, it is easy to forget that most people just aren’t, and go about their daily lives, unencumbered by the effects of decisions made in Holyrood and, especially London.
It may be only when an election (or a referendum) comes along that a passing interest will be taken. And then…
That is when the never-ending UKOK propaganda takes effect. Propagandists aren’t stupid. They know exactly what they’re doing. It’s not to influence the likes of the politically-aware in Scotland.
Mr. and Mrs. AchAmNoInterestedInTheyPolitics have been hearing from the BBC and reading the Mail or the Record for forever and a day and when the time comes to trundle along to vote (if they vote at all) that MSM propaganda is what they’ll base their vote on – “Ach, yon SNP is gonnae win easy, so they don’t need ma vote. Thon Davidson gets a good write-up. She’s a Tory, is she no? Ach, whitever. The telly and the papers say Davidson’s good, so we’ll vote for her party, so we will.”
Pathetic, but, sadly, true.
I think most of us saw this coming and I was in my gut last night that we would fall short. The only consolation is that the press and pundits and unionist parties only really started to put this together at the 11th hour.
Nevertheless, I am not as pessimistic as many here. I think the SNP are still in a very strong position and of course Stu is right. None of the other parties are in a position to drag the SNP anywhere unless there is a strange conjunction of interests that involve every other party.
On independence I am less sure. The Greens might not be entirely gung ho on the matter but a UK out of the EU, scrapping Human Rights and entering corporatist trade deals might be much more amenable to cutting the cord than Patrick’s observation suggests. Hell, Kezia might be true to he instinct and go for it.
Let us not all go Private Fraser. There is a lot still to play for and you can bet your bottom dollar that Ruth, Kezia and Willie would all give their eye teeth to swap addresses with Nicola.
We might have to box clever, but everything is still very much on. In the meantime issues that do matter regarding a better more prosperous and, yes, greener, Scotland await our attention.
The situation today with 63 seats and 6 Greens is not a lot different from 4th of May when there was 65 seats and 2 Greens and 2 independent/Greens.
Time to show we can work with people and achieve much.
Can’t understand Orkney & Shetland. Can anyone, from there, explain the Northern Isles dogged determination to cleave to Carmichael’s party, for better for worse, in sickness and in health and forsaking all others?
Neither MSP strikes me as particularly charismatic. Am I missing something?
My can only hazard that there is some kind of alien race, (like the Slitheen in Dr Who), which has colonised Orkney & Shetland. The Orkney & Shetland Slitheen want to minimise human intrusion, so they get their host bodies to vote Libdems, no matter how bad the Libdems behave. The rest of the human race then concludes, naturally, that these islanders must all be mad, and avoid going there, which is the master plan of the Orkney & Shetland Slitheen.
Maybe they burn you in a wicker man, if you don’t vote Libdem?
What on earth is it? It passeth all understanding.
Interestingly positive take on things, DMH. And Valerie, rather than yoon brainwashing, full-on Nasty Ruthie is surely going to grate on a lot of people before very long.
But recognising that indy has been hammered relentlessly for 18 months rather begs the question: how are the Labourites in the MSM going to react now that their favourites are busted and on the scrap-heap?
The Electoral system (lists) is totally flawed. It is corrupt. It is a total farce. If there is PR the list votes should be proportionated to Parties NATIONALLY not regionally. It is a total farce. It means the Tories can get 1/2Million votes and get 20 MSP’s (illegally), depending on the region they get them in. When the SNP get 1/2Million votes with no representation. Labour (serves them right) get 1/2Million votes with no representation. 1Million votes get no representation. A puny small Party can get a handful of votes and get 6MSP.
Some regions voters are over represented in Holyrood and some do not have the representation their votes represent. It is a total farce. The Borders (pro rata) have more Party representation than the NE. The list votes should be distributed according to national total votes proportionately not regionally. It is a National Election not a regional one.
The Independence vote has increased.
No wonder it is difficult for one Party to get an overall majority. The whole list system is skewed. If it isn’t changed ASAP more people will become disillusioned with the Electoral system. Unless the Tories and Greens like cheating.
Yes,the Tories did well in Scotland. They still didn’t win though. All the other Unionists would have to vote shoulder to shoulder with them to stand still. After being stitched up by them, opposition parties should think carefully before helping them again.
Orkney and Shetland have voted Liberal as long as anyone can remember. There are places that simply never change with the tide. This is true in many places. We can’t win them all.
I see that Ruth is demanding that Nicola rule out a second referendum. I can only assume that Ruth can’t count. The pro independence parties have a majority. The 3 Unionist parties are combined 3 short of the SNP’s total alone. Coming a distant second gives you right to demand exactly nothing.
That is the way them apples is.
I wonder if Ruthie No Surrender tank commander is going to spend every official opposition leader moment dribbling on about referendums? If so she will be a waste of space and possibly the worst (or best from Nicola’s perspective) opposition leader ever.
Well we are where we are … :-/
Naval gazing about “What if people had voted for party 2 and not party 1?” doesn’t really achieve anything much now IMHO. It won’t even prevent exactly the same conversations occurring in the run up to Holyrood 2021.
IndyRef2 is likely off the cards until 2021 at the earliest, but personally I was wary about calling one anytime soon – not that I don’t want independence, but a second defeat too close to IndyRef1 would likely doom the project for decades.. Downside is that Westminster may feel able to trample on Holyrood without that club available to wave in their direction.
So, in an attempt to look on the bright side … Well SLAB are now in an interesting position, do they make a habit of supporting the Tories and thus probably alienate their supporters even further, do they abstain quite probably handing victory to the SNP or vote with the SNP (and risk losing any remaining ultra-unionists who didn’t go Tory this time)?
With the SNP in a minority government, they have a perfect way to avoid the IndyRef2 question which otherwise the Unionists and the MSM would’ve been hammering them with on a weekly if not daily basis. (They did try this in the election, which might have helped them?)
Plus don’t forget the SNP are not totally beholden to the Greens, the LibDems also have just enough numbers to get a SNP bill through. Now I wouldn’t for a moment suggest relying on them, but it does give the SNP room to negotiate in – if the Greens are lukewarm on a particular issue, what’s the LibDem’s opinion?
No. Scottish Governments can’t force an election. All they can do is stand down, but in that event the opposition parties could just choose a new First Minister (if they could agree on who, of course).
Is there literally no deadline or confidence vote that could trigger it? Given the seat split, you are asking a bag of angry cats to agree with each other. The other parties would seem surely at risk of massive blowback if they deny an election that the populace wanted; the Greens in particular would come under serious pressure.
The reality might be messier, but the SNP is so close to a majority it seems like it’d be very hard to stop.
Ok,I’m calling the result.
The bitter, pessimistic defeatists have won a majority on this site.
Other interpretations are available.
“But then, that’s what can happen if you fall asleep on the job”
So true, Rev. Puts me in mind of the following
“It is the common fate of the indolent to see their rights become a prey to the active. The condition upon which God hath given liberty to man is eternal vigilance ” John Philpot Curran (1750-1817).
Regarding the drop in turnout, would it make any difference if voting was compulsory?
Is it me or do I detect GLEE in the voices of the employees of the BBC in Scotland’s Radio station…..
The word bellend does spring to mind.
The SNP got 46.5% of the constituency vote, 41.7% of the list vote, but 48.8% of the seats. The system has been kind to the SNP, just not as kind as last time.
Rev Stu says:
‘The failure of the SNP to secure another Holyrood majority last night … will ensure that even if the rUK votes to leave the EU and Scotland votes overwhelmingly to stay in, there will be no indyref before the next Holyrood election in 2021’
I see your point Rev and feel the same frustration at the SNP just scrapping so close to a majority – I was close to tears this morning. However I decided to cheer up and look at this from a positive side:
The Project Fear from the EU remaining camp is constantly hammering those in England with the idea that if England votes to leave the EU, it will ‘lose (as if it belonged to England)’ Scotland. I think that if we had achieved a resolute majority from the SNP today it will give a lot of fuel to that version of Project Fear and detract at least some in England to vote to leave and we would not be able to capitalise on Brexit for another referendum.
However, now and because the SNP will have to rely on the support of other parties to claim a second indyref, some of the brexiters ‘concerned’ about ‘losing Scotland’ may now relax (with a bit of help from the propaganda from the press) and vote out to their heart’s content because in their minds, without an baad SNP majority, Scotland (and its resources) will firmly remain under England’s grasp what come may.
As for the Greens and unionist parties opposing another indiref, well, let’s wait and see. When faced with the reality of being dragged out of the EU by England and considering the number of EU citizens living in Scotland at the moment the potential impact on the economy and revenue, some of those London Scottish branch representatives so determined to keep Scotland under England’s heel may quickly lose some determination when their constituents start to set their backsides on fire and blame them full on for Scotland’s economy collapse.
The cowards and buffoons are only brave when they don’t have to face danger. So let’s wait and see that determination when they are faced with real danger.
By the way, I don’t expect many Tory voters in Scotland will read this site, but if any do, please let me invite you to put your actions where your vote was and volunteer to pay for the NHS prescriptions. At the end of the day that is what you voted for, isn’t it? And why should you be so unfairly deprived of paying for your prescriptions when you are so willing to do so?
In Scotland, the political fight now is not left vs. right, or any other forms in between. The fight now is independence vs. unionism. And that is how it will stay until either one or the other increases their number to the point where a) a referendum for Scottish independence is called for and won by the Yes to Independence side or, b) the unionists have an absolute majority and the UK is maintained.
The status quo a la the present state of affairs may, or may not last the length of the upcoming five-year government. There are far too many unknown unknowns for that to be given any certainty. But, the chances are that it will.
As we are, both camps, pro-independence and pro-unionism, are pretty much entrenched and hardcore in their positions and views.
For us who believe so much in an independent Scotland, it may well take quite a few more years for that possibility even to be given via a referendum, never mind realised.
The best chance seems to be that those younger voters who predominantly vote SNP keep on doing so, and that each new sixteen year-old voter adds to the tally yearly.
But, how long will it take until these numbers year by year eventually make the total of pro-independence votes unassailable? (I read somewhere a spreadsheet of this scenario and how long it was estimated to take. I should have bookmarked it. Has anyone here seen that, or something similar?)
Dr Ew says:
6 May, 2016 at 5:33 pm
Ok,I’m calling the result.
The bitter, pessimistic defeatists have won a majority on this site.
Other interpretations are available.
Ruby replies
I think a lot of the doom & gloom could be due to sleep deprivation.
Dr Ew says:
6 May, 2016 at 5:33 pm
Ok,I’m calling the result.
The bitter, pessimistic defeatists have won a majority on this site.
Other interpretations are available.”
So what are they, and you cant say, we’ll all be working together for a greener tomorrow, but you will.
5 more years of BBC says SNP bad, Ruth Davidson’s a goddess, Brewer and co, MacWirter, Eleanor Bradford and Jacky Bird style and thats it. Its all over as a Scottish nation state.
Unless you know differently Dr Ew, which like Muscleguy ofcourse, you do:D
Does anyone have the total numbers of votes for each party in the regional list vote? it would be interesting to see how many seats per vote each party had.
Lets keep a check on how many times the Yoon parties mention Independence in the next five years.
Ruth Jong Un will get found out very soon.
her policies being seen as a farce.
The mugs who believed her will soon be saying,
“stick them up your arse”.
Dipity Dug walked away with a shrug,
embarrassment for all to see.
some looked sad some were happy,
the majority were filled with glee.
As for the Lib Dems there’s not too many,
’cause whats the use of a Wullie Rennie?
I would be interested to know how many of the older generation actually understood the voting system.I took the time to understand it and its not straight forward so how do you expect many of the elderly to get their heads round it.My aunt(87 years) was one of those and i gave up trying to explain it and she just followed my lead to vote twice for the SNP.It would’nt be heard to convince many of them to look upon the list vote as a second choice and i know my brother,sister in law and their kids would be no different even if they voted.
Robert J. Sutherland says:
“full-on Nasty Ruthie is surely going to grate on a lot of people before very long.”
Yes. She won in part by being the Ruth Davidson Party. That can’t last. She is Cameron’s kiddo in north Britain. She is a Tory. There is only one flavour of Tory. They are best placed now to really really piss off a lot of Scots who didn’t vote for her.
“how are the Labourites in the MSM going to react now that their favourites are busted”
That will be interesting. Do they continue to flog the dying horse, or do they try to make out the Tories aren’t really Tories here?
All this should play some part in building Yes support.
Reading everything above, I conclude the immediate objective must be to convert soft NOs to YES. Then worry about how we translate that will of the people into political reality. Democracy has a way of exercising itself.
The total numbers are posted could be on another thread.
The List vote is fraudulent. The list votes should be proportionately distributed to each Party on a National level. No as a region votes. It means some regions are getting representated at an unfair level by another Party and are not proportionately represented by the Party for which the majority have voted. Over representation in some regions and under represented in others.
The Tories have cheated through the Lists Holyrood is not representative of how the votes were cast. It is a farce.
It should return to FPTP – at least voters get for whom they voted or list votes should be proportionally distributioned NATIONALLY. The Tories have cheated. They have not been awarded votes proportionately NATIONALLY but regionally. It is a National election not a regional one.
It is a total farce. Totally non representational. Small Parties over represented.
MSM crowing over a farcical system.Listening to their nonsense. People will just get more annoyed
Have visited a number of relatives here during my stay. Now, these are either comfortably well-off middle-class, or middle-class and doing alright. And every one a Tory voter!
They were also solid Nos in IndyRef1, no surprises there.
And, though I didn’t tell them to their faces, they are all selfish bastards! I’m alright Union Jack-s!
But wait, you might say, they’ve got a right to vote how they wish in a democratic [sic] society. And indeed they do. But, and I’ve tried and tried, they don’t want to hear or listen to any reasoning: the common weal, the injustices, the propaganda, the truths that were ‘omitted’ during IndyRef1, the lies, how we would be so much better off – all of us – if independent… It’s all ‘Na-na-na-na-na! We’re not listening! Or, an ‘Oh, aye?’ and a quick change of subject… ‘Would you like another cup of tea?’
It drives me fucking nuts! But, as (the – how the fuck did that happen? – now re-elected Wee Wonderous Willie) Rennie said, ‘Ach, whit can ye dae, eh?’.
They’re all proudScotbuts, though, so that’s nice, eh!
What if for the last time, we had another 3 seats, it would only be spun as a defeated SNP, even with a majority. So we only need to convince a couple of greens or labour or liberal or, well maybe not, read between the lines, if a piece of legislation needs past, the other party’s will fall over themselves to claim the credit,
Already the Torys are making an arse of themselves, we will stop NP legislation, oh really, how? It passed, it’s law, we will stop the offensive behaviour at football, really how, it’s law. There is no way that they will get a majority. The SNP seats are just to big.
Holyrood is working as it was planned, the SNP will call the shots, getting two people out of 67 is not going to be impossible is it!
Now the final lie from the unionists, no mandate, if it’s a independence verses unionists, the there is a independence majority already even if ever unionist votes no on Monday it can happen. Lets take a trick from them, and get back to the yes campaign, not only have we a majority but the 45 is now officially nearly the 49rs. Another ignorant statement from the Tory today, repeated twice that I heard, they are now the official opposition, no they are fuckng not, that’s Westminster, this is Holyrood, all you get is to ask a question first, OK! Nothing else.
Honestly I don’t know exactly how you lot are so down, we are Scottish, we make everything difficult, did Bruce not learn, try, and try again. We are just over 1% from a majority of the electorate being pro independence.
The other party’s will dance to the SNP tune, honestly go with land reform, stamp your authority, show how little power the Torys actually have and get green to help us in return!
I’m not depressed by the result – not delighted either.
Given that the 2011 result WAS a bit of a freak in a system engineered to prevent an SNP majority, and I agree with the SNP that PR is better than FPTP, then the result is fair, and we’re still in the driving seat. No way will the Tories be able to propose and win a vote on anything significant.
I voted SNPx2 in the Borders – I helped to get Christine Graham and 3 list MSPs.
I understand that IF my priority was to maximise the theoretical anti-Union numbers or anti-Tory numbers a list vote for the Greens in some other areas might have helped. It would have been a risk – lots of bollocks about the “inevitability” of 65 constituency seats.
The 3 Edinburgh “disasters” were down to the Yoons getting their tactical voting act together. The Tories were happy to hold their noses to vote for Findlay in the GE, and repeated the exercise. There is a core Labour Yoon vote who have always been willing to vote UKIP, Tory, anybody but SNP and returned the favour for the Buffalo Rider. Then they both gave handers to the Liars Party in Edinburgh West.
That’s the problem, not really lists designed to achieve a sense of fairness, while blocking the SNP.
What really worries me is the Council Election next year. The Yoons will give 1,2,3 to each other – so if the SNP don’t get 50% on the first vote they will get shafted.
Forget slagging the Greens, ignore the loony left (but not all of their ideas!) and get organising the vote out. get some good goverment which the SNP do so well, try to pick up any soft Labour voters left. What to do about NE Scotland and the immediate seats along the Border is beyond me. Too many grouse moors, big landowners and forelock tuggers.
I can understand why so many people feel disappointed, as I am, but we should really just drop the blame game, get over it and move on. It’s done and dusted. Oh and not give any Unionist lurkers on here cause to be rubbing their hands.
I can really understand why you feel so upset Stu putting so much time and effort into attempting to enlighten and educate we plebs however you should actually be feeling extremely proud of yourself today as without you the situation could have been so much WORSE.
We know that the corrupt media are intent on brainwashing people and clearly manage to do so but following years of unrelentling SNP Baad propaganda, and in particular the last few months / weeks, they didn’t manage to dent the level of Independence support. Add to that the oil situation and the 15 billion black hole. The gloom and doom indoctrination just hasn’t worked and they, behind the scenes, must be absolutely beelin about that. You contributed greatly to combating all of that Stu. And now we can clearly see what St Austells Mr Curtice has been up to …. and in seeing he’s lost his credibility now.
If we want our Independence we have to continue doing what we do best that is working our butts off to get the Truth out there. We should also continue to attempt to identify which groups are open to ‘conversion’.
Around 500,000 people voted for the Tories. How many of them came from the group of around 400,000 relocators (figure probably risen by now) from England who voted No to Independence; those with holiday homes here and the no surrender crowd? Forget about them.
Around 500,000 people voted for Labour. How many of them, detesting the Tories, will give up the ghost and support Independence in future?
Around 44% of people didn’t vote at all and I doubt many of them would be Tories. Some may have been SNP supporters that reckoned a majority was a given however I would imagine that many of them were disillusioned Labourites. Their party is finished between one thing and another so where do they go now?
Ruthless will have to drop the Indyref2 patter and face the music in Holyrood when her bosses down south totally p*ss everyone off with one lousy, toxic policy after another: One disgusting expose after another.
In taking everything into account who knows what the future will bring and whatever it is it may not be so negative at all.
The MSM don’t get it. Once again. Ignorant as usual. 1million votes going unrepresented. It’s a farce.
As far as I am concerned if you offer the Greens carbon capture or a few more windmills, the will sell their souls. They are not to be trusted. You know the old adage keep your friends close but your enemies closer, and I suspect that will be the SNP reaction. I do hope that those who voted for the Tory Party enjoy the ride, it would please me emensly if it were only them suffering,but unfortunately we will too. I rather suspect they were actually safe from them and their delightful policies whilst they voted for them,the two faced gits.
Has there been some sort of yoon skullduggery in Aberdeenshire west? Reading the posts above the figures don’t add up. Postals or ballot rigging? Maybe needs investigating.
Well guys some night eh, at first gutted then I thought all is not lost, we wanted rid of labour pretty much did that, Tories, mmn that is total unionism votes, that will die in the coming years. The Tories now have to come up with a proper opposition and I don’t think they can. I think the SNP will now have to work harder on the economy etc, good thing I think. Now lets fucking kill the Tories VOTE EU OUT that will move a lot of their voters to ask questions on why did they call for a vote. Remember guys our freedom will come but for half of Scotland wont let us we need to wait another 5 years at least. VOTE EU OUT.
FFS get the figures right
SNP 1058,897 + 953,587 = 2,012,484
Tory 501,844. + 524,222 =1,026,066
Labour 514,261 + 435,919 = 950,180
LiBDem178,238 +119284 = 297,522
Greens 1300 + 150326. = 151,726
It means the list vote should be awarded proportionally nationally, then regionally or voters get no representation. There is no Tory breakthrough. The numbers are dependent on how people voted regionally. A farce. Some regions are over represented at Holyrood and some are underepresentated. 1/2Million SNP voters and 1/2Million Labour votes = 1Million votes. While 1/2Million Tory votes get 20MSP because the list votes are not distributed proportionately nationally, but regionally. Small Parties have representation far larger than their proportion of votes. It’s a farce. Non democratic.
The Independence vote has increased. If the Unionists try to say there is no mandate.
heedtracker says:
6 May, 2016 at 5:48 pm
5 more years of BBC says SNP bad, Ruth Davidson’s a goddess, Brewer and co, MacWirter, Eleanor Bradford and Jacky Bird style and thats it
Ruby replies
It would have been the same no matter the result of election.
The list system is not fair. Nationally it does not represent the voters wishes.
Ruby replies
It would have been the same no matter the result of election.
Its more that a majority government can actually force out yoonster culture across Scotland, independence via the scenic route.
Now that’s all going to be blocked because that what Greens do, block stuff. They even blocked an almost unknown in the Scotland region tennis star planned tennis academy because its bad and not Green. They’re the blockers, in the name of being Green. Aberdeen’s paying a very high price for the green blockers. If only they were even remotely like European Greens, that would be interesting but not a chance.
Scotland’s been done up like a kipper by D’Hondt, we’re still reined over by tory England and the Greens are only going to do be a pain in the arse, at best. BBC will brainwash us its god’s will on earth and toryboy heaven.
Andy D
Idiot if Scotland votes out and England votes out you have spiked you’re own guns!
Keep up at the back of the class, or it’s the corner for you boy.
Big Jock, Legerwood , Mike Cassidy, Petra, DMH, Dal Riata: so much I agree with in your contributions.
It seems to me the main hurdle is the BBC. So what do WE do? And, perhaps more importantly, what is the SNP going to do about it? Unless they have a strategy as part of their summer campaign to relaunch Indy, we’re not going to get very far. I could take yesterday as a step on the road, given the increase in the constituency vote, if I felt there was an appetite to challenge the BBC on every level, from their interviewing/chairing style to their control of the airwaves.
And how do all the forensic analysis and aspirational, elegant essays on Wings, Bateman, WGD et al. break out of the bubble to convert a wider audience?
K1: don’t like to hear you so down. I hope once you get over your disappointment and exhaustion you’ll see we still have so much to play for. Getting out of this corrupt Union was never going to be easy.
There is immense pressure on the Greens to deliver on their supposed independence credentials. By their fruits shall we know them.
What is this – Groundhog day?
I think most of you need a good night’s kip
followed by a day’s gardening leave.
Now we have a clear picture of the percentage of the Scottish electorate
that are die-hard yoons – and an idea of the soft Nos.
I need those Wee Black Books soonest.
Aberdeenshire West had a re-count because Lewis McDonald sister was a counter? 137,000 NE SNP list votes went unrepresented. Don’t know how it happened but Aberdeenshire West ended up with a Tory (list or what). Burnett owns half of Deeside.
Just can’t believe that Green is an MSP. 160,000 votes. 6 MSP’s.
Stuart is 100% correct , anyone with an interest has to get 100% behind SNP they are the only party able to push for another referendum. No more new or small parties started up to claim votes , only complete support for them will do , after indy any number of new parties can and should start up , but until indy splitting the vote does not work, we have to give Nicola and the SNP a huge mandate with as many people voting for SNP as possible we have to send that message at all elections from now until indy.
Labour are now on their knees, they lost their yes supporters last year to SNP and this year lost a large portion of their no voters to the tories, who’s left supporting them now.
For there to be another indy ref in the life of this parliament will take a monumental change , brexit wont be enough, maybe if dodgy dave cancels the navy contracts for the clyde or privatises NHS (how would that affect the Barnett formula ?) both are very possible with this Westminster Gov. Two out of those three might do it, all three almost certainly would have people screaming for another referendum.
I have said before on wings someone within tory party is expertly killing off the labour party here , it cant be luck that every time they plan a campaign labour takes serious damage, and labour cant help but walk into disaster.
It’s not until you leave and come back to Scotland that you realise once again the hold the propaganda of Westminster, the British Establishment and its actors and the rightwing MSM media has over so many swathes of the Scottish population. It’s either full-on attack-mode – against the SNP, the right of Scottish self-determination or on anything positive about Scotland and its people – or its done drip, drip, drip-style… day after day after day.
Now, gorillas are fairly placid and gentle creatures, but that 800 lb one in the corner of the living-room, called the BBC is a dangerous, dangerous animal. *That* is the one (with back-up from ITV, SKY and Channel 4) that will pretend to be neutral, fair and unbiased when it is the exact opposite. It is, as it knows, scrapping for its life as it will become an extinct beast should Scotland become independent. No wonder it’s fighting dirty.
Although the number of BBC Scotland’s ‘believers’ are falling, there are still many, many in Scotland who take their words as gospels of the truth.
Back to the proudScotbut relatives. They are absolutely beholden to what the Britnat MSM has to say: “Well, she (Nicola Sturgeon) is going to win easily.” Note the use of ‘she’ instead of the SNP and their policies; “Someone has to stand up to the SNP to stop Scotland becoming a one-party state.”; “Someone’s got to speak up against the SNP. Davidson is good. There’s only positive things said about her.”. And so on, ad infinitum vomitus.
Ok, they don’t want to believe anything else, but the broadcast media, and the print media, just re-enforces their prejudices – ‘UKOK, Scotland independent would be shite… and we’d have less money…’
If Scotland does get its deserved independence while the BBC in Scotland, and the rest of the UK’s MSM is still behaving as it has been and still is, it will be akin to a political and social miracle. Actually, should Scotland become independent even against the incredibly powerful forces of the Britnat MSM forces, both overt and covert, it could be the greatest story ever told of good over evil, retold for centuries to come.
Here are 2 links to the Greens Robin Harper and Patrick Harvie voting down the SNP budget in 2009 and precipitating a crisis.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7854417.stm
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/7857087.stm
The biggest benefit we will have as the strength of our minority is we will have the support of an other party’s MSPs so it will be harder to say SNP bad!
John Swinnie excellent on the state propaganda organ.
It’s the English working class who vote Tory – Westminster. They voted for Thatcher x 3. Her own Cabinet got rid of her.
heedtracker
It’s not just the greens that block stuff. The entire oppostion at Holyrood just seems to block stuff if they can’t block stuff then they run to the media claiming how bad the SNP policy is.
Perhaps all the blocking of stuff will convince the electorate that change is needed.
Heedtracker
Go and take a Positivity Pill.
Please ?
Any chance Orkney and Shetland could take Trident, the yoons up there can have it for a wee shot..
Nicola…
https://twitter.com/theSNP/status/728615452021153792
Heads up
https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/728640196489695233
Annoying though it seems at first! Stepping back a bit – over the course of the parliament it could actually be the best result!
Firstly – TORYS Vs SNP – Ruth is both annoying and hamstrung by everything Camoron does! They also don’t have enough seats to be really problematic. Scots are Thrawn – repeated Tory interference in Scotland’s govt attempts to make it a better place will soon get very vexing. Ruthie will have to get labour onside to do any real damage ( which will kill off any chance of a labour resurgence – so how likely is it that they will side with the Tories?).
Every time Ruthie ‘interferes’ with the wishes of e SNP parliament – it will be just one more reason to hate the Tories.
Plus – Tories cannot resist crowing and being triumphalist – they were trying to tone it down a bit – it’ll be back in full annoying display now – to remind folk why they kicked them out in the first place.
Minority govt takes the pressure off a bit – some manifesto pledges won’t be doable immediately – and the ‘less popular’ ones may be tweaked a bit prior to being implemented. It buys them a bit of time ( and saves a bit of the budget). It also gives them an excuse to delay or ditch the least popular policies ( blame it on a lack of support – not our fault!).
Five whole years of odious crowing Tories, five more years of Camorons crap raining down on Scotland – hard though it is to stomach – is exactly what is needed to fully refocus the minds of swithering no voters!
Bleedin annoying though it is – the Tory ‘victory’ is a hollow one – they are 2% down on vote percentage over their grubbing in 97 – not exactly a ringing endorsement. The SNP are over 100,000 votes up on 2011. They got over a million constituency votes and 2 million combined with the list – that is bloody epic! The greens are pro Indy ( despite Patrick Harvey’s tempering down – he was VERY vocally defensive of it on the debate last week!). All of this is GOOD.
What appears on first glance to be a bit of a bummer could actually be exactly what was needed over the next 5 years to pull enough folk over to the Yes side. Softly, softly! Let the Tories do all the damage to their own side, sit back and wait and see if labour kill their party completely by siding with the Tories or if they rethink their Indy stance and try to win back their vote and let the ‘opposition’ torpedo their own side.
By the time the next election comes around – that’s when to go all out for Indy – by which time the Scottish electorate will have remembered exactly why they ousted the Tories the first time around.
We are in serious danger of turning into the same Whiney, moany type of ‘winners’ that we hear bleating on about the referendum.
The SNP increased constituency seats and votes! We do have a pro Indy parliament! We have an odious opposition who we can throttle with their uk leaders policies, we have an ineffectual Labour Party! Get a green in as presiding officer, a couple of defections to SNP or scandals/deaths/stand downs and win those seats = majority govt again.
The SNP governed well on a minority before – they’ll do it again. It doesn’t hurt the few who are starting to believe their own hype to be reminded that nothing is certain. I’m happy to play the slightly longer game and allow the Tories to damage their own case.
My only real bugbear is that the odious lamont, Kelly, baille and the stomach churning Sarwar are back contaminating my airspace! But a few new faces compensate for that. I’m hoping Jeane Freeman rips baille a new one with alarming regularity.
Dal Riata
45% of the electorate are not fooled by the propaganda there is absolutely no reason why that 45% couldn’t become 100%.
One thing we can do is not to pay for the BBC licence but judging by the number of posters on this forum who watch live TV I think many are still subscribing.
5 years will pass quick enough and as others have said a lot of unknowns to come, the 1st of those next month. Wonder how Ruthies farmer pals would react if there is a vote to leave and their money runs dry with WM failing to make up the difference? Exports becoming sticky because of the hold ups in new trade agreements needed with the world?
EU worth £2b to Scotland, not including trade/exports.
We would see how the better together squad feels when there is nothing stopping WM stomping all over jockistan.
Scots have been trying to dissolve the union for the past 300yrs and we are not going to let them down. Tomorrow is a new day.
Giving Goose says:
6 May, 2016 at 7:04 pm
Heedtracker
Go and take a Positivity Pill.
Please ?
Ruby replies
Don’t be too hard on him he might have been awake all night!
I had a good night’s sleep and I feel very positive today. As I said earlier I was a bit pissed off about Edinburgh Central but then I remember what ‘heedtracker’ told me when I asked if there was any way of getting rid of Ruth.
Patrick Harvie isn’t daft. He knows fine the Greens are only in the picture because they supported YES, and obstructing Indyref 2 would rank somewhere down beside the Lib Dems doing a U turn of tuition fees. I have a feeling about the Greens that they aim high with their rhetoric, but enjoy following it up with some constructive pragmatism. I could be wrong, but the voices in my head telling me to be glad Ruth Davidson is on their side, are also telling me to be equally glad that Harvie is on ours.
Don’t despair Dal Riata. The Unionists I know are not heavy duty thinkers. Their Unionism isn’t a rational decision, it’s subjective, and even thinking about ‘ separatism’ takes them way out their comfort zone. Every one of them struggles to articulate why they feel they way they do, and it seems to irritate them when I am so relaxed about my reasons for being a YES man. I think they feel threatened that the thirst for Independence might be contagious if they open their minds to talk about it. I love meeting a new Unionist and trying to spot the moment when the penny drops that I’m not a paleface like them but a redskin plotting rebellion. Sometimes a wry wee smile or a moments awkward silence is all it takes. The funny thing is, I can usually spot them from a mile out. It’s the scowl that does it.
They won’t join in the party because separation is anti-establishment and we are reckless to be advocates of change instead of conservative (small c) guardians of the old world order like they are. We are heretics to them, and have the damned cheek to be happy about it.
Meant to say, since Ruthie’s mounted everything else, could she mebbe mount a coup in the next Scottish Parliament?
For older viewers, remember this? I’ve taken off everything left of and including the forward slashes but reserve the right to repost with full YouTube gubbins: tasty!
m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pcc0_8i0CYs
And to finish: just remembered why I loathed the smarmy, arrogant git who is Jackson Carlaw. He is a smarmy, arrogant git.
QED, ya bass.
Pleasant as she is, enthusiastic too, does anybody feel SNP handing Edinburgh Central (not a railway station) to an inexperienced woman (to accord with the 50/50 rule) might be the reason it is lost?
Please note: the emphasis is on ‘inexperienced’.
Thought it wouldn’t work.
To lighten the mood a little, enjoy.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Pcc0_8i0CYs
I must be the only person who found the rear end camera close ups of ‘Ruthie’ and her partner gleefully legging it hand-in-hand into the counting hall seriously nauseas.
I mean, 16 seats and none deserved.
I don’t see that independence for Scotland was ever on the table. There does not seem to be a movement pushing for it, even in the SNP.
Petra says:
6 May, 2016 at 6:17 pm
Around 500,000 people voted for Labour. How many of them, detesting the Tories, will give up the ghost and support Independence in future?
Every cloud has a silver lining. 🙂
The majority of the people I have talked to this week don’t/didn’t know how the list, or second, vote works, or even what it was/is for. They believe/d that it was for your second preferred party. A bit like, ‘Who is your preferred candidate? Number them one to three.’ or whatever. More than some said, “If I’ve already voted SNP for my first choice, surely I have to vote for another party as my second choice…”
It’s mad when a country’s voters aren’t even sure how their country’s voting system even works! Not just mad, but wrong.
Even so, shouldn’t there have been a concerted effort by the Scottish government to ensure that at least most people knew what the hell it was all about?! Yes, the d’Hondt system can be quite tricky at first to get your head round, but once you learn it you’ve learnt it! So… what the hell?
https://archive.is/0OAIv
“This summer the SNP will embark on a new initiative to build support for independence,” Ms Sturgeon said, adding that many voters had sympathised with the idea but had not found SNP arguments “compelling enough”.
“We will hear your concerns and address your questions — and in the process, we will be prepared to challenge some of our own answers,” she said.’
Ruthie might be able to vote against a 2nd referendum but she can’t stop the SNP building support for Independence.
Sure she’ll be whinging non-stop about it but then whinging is all she seems to do.
This to me is the perfect 5year plan! No point rushing to get a referendum if you don’t have the support.
Perhaps all the blocking of stuff will convince the electorate that change is needed.
Ruby blocking stuff is fine but Green blocking doesn’t stuff doesnt make any sense.
I’m green, everyone’s green really but they blocked things like Aberdeen’s new by-pass for a long time which is fair enough, green belts are not there to be built over. But then you drive around England’s fantastic 21st century road network and come back to the north east of Scotland and its like the 1940’s, with all that that means for economic damage to the whole area. This one by-pass is decades late with original costs rocketing up from £300 million to £1.5 billion. That is a lot of money, wasted money and lost economic benefit.
One of the reasons England’s got a stronger economy than Scotland is partly because of their far more advance transport infrastructure than Scotland’s, all across England. And its been bought and paid for with North Sea oil revenues.
So we have had wealthy Greens in Aberdeen blocking a major transport infrastructure for the north east of Scotland because… its spoils the view? Scotland’s too small and doesnt need to have a modern fast road network?
And then one lone Green decided to block Trump Golf at Balmedie but that’s another Green story:D
When the dust has settled, certain parties (they know who they are) can play their new anthem.
The Back Stabbers by the O-Jays.
How the F**K the Tories, THE TORIES got an increase in their vote, they have butchered Scotland over the decades.
Turkeys voting for Christmas!! or greedy, parochial teuchters who would burst into tears if they lost a penny, stereotypical Scots.
Couple of points:
1. It’s easy to see how the BBC will be able to change tact and back the Tories, but what about publications like the Daily Record?
Where do they go from here? who do they support?
Do they keep supporting Labour and continue to make complete fools of themselves, or do they finally live up to their name and back the true Scotland’s Champion?
With the Sun backing the SNP, this election has put the battle between both papers (a battle that now has this political element to it) in a new light, with the Daily Record looking like the manager who told the Beatles that no-one wanted guitar music any more!
Can the daily Record really allow it’s backing of the Labour Party continue to contribute to its sales decline?
2. What now for Labour?
Will they continue in ‘better together’ mode and vote with the Tories against the SNP?
Remember it’s one thing to vote with other parties against the SNP if you are the largest party by a country mile (as Labour have been up ’till yesterday) but quite another to be seen as the Tory Parties little helpers or Tory Lapdogs,
(Tory Lap-Dug)
Will Labour really go down that path?
Lets be honest Ruthie has played a blinder when it came to Kez/Labours stance on the Constitution(probably advised from Westminster snakes) so unless Labour re-brand themselves as the Scottish Labour and Unionist Party, to prove they are truly prepared to defend the Union, Ruthie will paint them as untrustworthy.
3. The Rev is being a right dip-stick at the mo, but that’s only because he loves his nation and wants what’s best for it.
We’ve all been through that emotion a few times (I had to come off twitter cos I was falling out with other Yesers after the Indy result) but you know what, I’d rather be a dipstick for a night or two, than be a lickspittle for life.
Let’s all dust ourselves down and rejoice in the rise of the SNP vote.
Thanks for this Croomp, a very nice dose of positive reality.
A spoon full of sugar…
https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/728640196489695233
It looks like the Greens do not have their troubles to seek – Hugh Kerr is going to join them – again!
Time to come together, and move on.
That, for me means, begin the project to bring as many soft NOs onside as possible. Then find a mechanism to move on to independence and a better Scotland.
The first hurdle is bring those ‘softs’ into the fold.
I don’t know what the SNP plan, beginning summer, but it would be ideal to get the Greens involved too.
A test of commitment and resolve for everyone to see.
Ref Andrew Mclean, 7.50pm
Really back of the class, you just don’t get it you are not going to get your Independence this side of 2020, but you would rather vote to stay in a corrupt shithole which is the EU cause its EUOK by the SNP baa baa, fucking sheep.
“” heedtracker says:
6 May, 2016 at 7:25 pm
Perhaps all the blocking of stuff will convince the electorate that change is needed.
Ruby blocking stuff is fine but Green blocking doesn’t stuff doesnt make any sense.
I’m green, everyone’s green really but they blocked things like Aberdeen’s new by-pass for a long time which is fair enough, green belts are not there to be built over. …”
It is not just economic damage. What about the death and injuries caused byt these ‘1940s’ style roads? nearly every week-end it seems there are serious road accidents on Aberdeen- shire roads.
“”green belts are not there to be built over”” Nice to see you recognise the value of the green-belt. Does this mean you are now on the side of protecting the green belt that is Park of Keir? LOL
Grouse Beater says:
6 May, 2016 at 7:18 pm
Pleasant as she is, enthusiastic too, does anybody feel SNP handing Edinburgh Central (not a railway station) to an inexperienced woman (to accord with the 50/50 rule) might be the reason it is lost?
Please note: the emphasis is on ‘inexperienced’.
Ruby replies
Perhaps the SNP made the same calculation as Ruth did when she decide to move from Glasgow to Edinburgh Central.
ie that it was a safe Tory seat.
Perhaps all the Edinburgh Central postal votes were 100% NO.
Who would have thunk it,
It was the unionist Labour voting with the blues wot dun it !.
I had also been warning about this for ages:
“Vote SNP+SNP.
We don’t want the 19th September 2014 feeling on Friday do we?”
“If the Greens or RISE take votes from SNP supporters and deny an SNP majority government, we can forget about independence for ten generations, let alone one.
There is a reason why the unionists and the enemy within (The National, Bella, Newsnet) are heavily promoting them.”
This is a victory for the SNP. We have an SNP Government. Let’s not turn on each other and accuse Bella or Rise of undermining the cause. Let’s stick together, keep the eyes on the prize and work against our true enemies, the BBC and the London party’s.
I had also been warning about this for ages:
“The Greens could most certainly not be relied upon.
They would hold an SNP government to ransom on every issue, let alone on referendum.”
The tank commander is about to get a tast of her own medicine, as she is now firmly in the political “cross hairs”, ———————–Boom !.
Labour voters 514,261 constituency (1) votes + 435,919 (2) list votes = 950,180
Tory 501,844 + 524,222 = 1,026066.
The list PR system would be fairer is the total of votes were added up Nationally and then divided proportionally as per number of list seats and then distributed regionally by each Party. .
With 160,000 votes Patrick Harvies should not be telling anyone. 6 MSP’s. While Labour 1/2Million list votes and SNP 1/2million list votes are not represented. 1Million votes non represented. Tory list votes 1/2Million = 20 MSP’s.
Voters will just get more and more annoyed. It’s an insult to Democracy. Westminster representational screwed. Holyrood screwed.
Legerwood
I don’t know anything about the Greens expect that Patrick Harvie seemed to have had numerous ‘hissy fits’ during the last parliament.
Nor do I don’t know anything about Aberdeen or Park of Keir however I will be keeping on eye on the Greens from now on.
I must admit, I’m a bit perplexed with some of the views that I have seen on a couple of the posts today. I think we do need a wee bit of perspective.
First, last night was an excellent result for the SNP. To be 2 shy of a majority is a fantastic achievement. To be honest, with a media that was determined to sabotage the SNP juggernaut, it was always going to there, or thereabouts in getting a majority. For the SNP to get 3 back-to-back victories at Holyrood is actually fantastic.
Secondly, we have annihilated the one party in Scotland that has failed to deliver for almost 100 years. Promises, vows and guarantees have failed to be lived up to from Scottish Labour, and thanks to their antics in the Referendum, well …they are still paying that price.
In the space of a decade, the ideology of nationalism has become part of the Scottish landscape, and is widely accepted, where as at the start of the millennium, it wasn’t. We have come a long way since then.
Thirdly, and let’s be honest, the Tories did do well. But the main question is …who was it that voted for them? I would bet a good many die-hard Unionists including some of a certain shade of tangerine were all previously Labour voters, but have moved to the right and decided to vote for the ‘No, No, No to independence’ Scottish Conservatives. As I said in an earlier post today, Ruth’s mantra over the course of this election had echoes of Ian Paisley’s ‘never, never, never’ speeches of a few decades ago. Ruth may have done well, but by God, has she got some interesting bedfellows now. It will be interesting to see the language that the Scottish Conservatives will use to keep these people onside.
Fourthly, there is no guarantee that the UK won’t vote to STAY IN the EU. If that comes to pass, where would that leave those clamouring for a 2nd Referendum independence? If the UK votes to stay in, then a 2nd Referendum will be shelved for a much later date.
Fifthly, though the Greens may have come 4th and taken a number on independence minded folk with them, they will now be in the same boat as the SNP, and that is, how to accommodate these new people. If say, we do pull out of the EU, and the SNP state the possibility of a 2nd Referendum, then Patrick Harvie will have to very careful here. If he says ‘No’ to it, then his newly gathered support may growl at him. Indy-minded Green Supporters won’t forget come 2021. I can’t see the Greens vetoing a second Referendum even though Patrick has skirted around the subject. At the end of the day, Unionists moved from one Unionist party to another. Well, it kind of happened here with SNP voters taking a liking to the Greens and voting for them. Overall, nothing really changed between the Unionists and Nationalists. The movements between parties happened within their own spheres of influence and not from one ideology to another (as in Unionism and Nationalism).
So, looking at it in a bigger timeline, it can be said that a lot has happened in Scottish politics in the last 10 years, than it has in the last 100 – Nationalist create a minority government in 2006; take a majority in 2011; almost succeed in a Referendum; take 56 out of 59 seats in Westminster, and just fall a gnats ball-hair shy of a majority in 2016! (excuse the pun) I mean …this is epic stuff. Other parties would die for those results and history over a decade.
And remember, people won’t come over to independence just like that. They need to be jolted. To be made upset. The London Tories have still to cut loose remember. The EU Referendum could be the floodgates if it turns out that the Celtic nations keep in a Eurosceptic England in the EU. That may mean constitutional crisis. And God knows what else lies in the wings to sicken people; another war; Sterling devaluing through soaring debt …who knows.
It was a great result last night. So, keep the faith. This isn’t over yet. Who knows what tomorrow brings.
I had also been warning about this for ages:
“I am very concerned that some Greens (and “ex Greens”) might be duping SNP supporters to give their list vote to the Greens.”
Vote SNP+SNP.
“”green belts are not there to be built over”” Nice to see you recognise the value of the green-belt. Does this mean you are now on the side of protecting the green belt that is Park of Keir? LOL
It’s rhetoric Legerwood. Yes the Greens blocked Andy Murray along the M9 and ofcourse they block things like Trump and even more bizarre, Aberdeen’s by-pass at massive cost to the tax payer but we have to have an economy surely? England’s road networks far in advance of Scotland’s and that’s not by chance. Its unionist policy and Green ofcourse
Andy Murray’s sports plan at Sterling’s been blocked because Greens want to block development of several fields, because fields are nice and they are, everyone likes fields dont they. And that in nut shell, is the UK Greens.
I don’t think your interpretation is very balanced here.
Where did that Tory vote come from? Was it a case of Unionists getting in by the back door? And if so, who left it open? Or did they get on through the front door left open by labour?
Wouldn’t it be equally accurate to say that the SNP list vote failed? That the ‘both votes SNP’ strategy was a bad call? It might even be argued that it was obvious that it would fail. After all, there were 3/4 million list votes for the SNP and nobody got elected.
In the spirit of accuracy and education, it would be good to run the numbers on how many pro Indy MSP’s we would have if the SNP had promoted a strategy of using the list vote for another pro Indy party. It seems to me that the ‘both votes SNP’ strategy put the party before Independence.
Secondly, I don’t agree that the Green list vote should be viewed negatively as splitting the pro Indy vote. If the Greens block Indy ref 2 then they will never get support from Independence supporters again. We have to be realistic. If there isn’t a clear indication that we will actually win a second Indy Ref, we don’t want to have one. Where would another defeat leave us?! It should maybe be the SNP that need to listen up to these results. The SNP’s efforts during the campaign to encourage voters to vote for them as an act of solidarity, despite their personal political views, were no doubt successful to a great extent. So their policies may not be as popular as one might deduce from the numbers who voted for them in the list. Perhaps not in the constituency vote either.
We are too stupid to be independent.
No doubt all those independence supporters who gave their list vote to the Greens or Rise will have bought multiple copies of that fraud The National today.
Once again the density of some of our population is laid bare for all to see
There are people out there who on hearing a politician say the words we will co-operate, think they actually mean it and that somehow a lovely warm glow followed by hot showers together will undoubtably follow and that the idea of a “Rainbow parliament” is somehow a good thing
Every politician will cut the others throat in a nano second to achieve their own gratification and fulfill an ambition to be perceived as the one who did the right thing for the next round of voters
Those politicians who are not in possession of these particular skills, coupled with the skin of a Rhinoceros will be preyed upon and devoured alive by the rest
At this moment in time Scotlands Queen Velociraptor is far and away Nicola Sturgeon and she will protect her position accordingly
Ruth Davidson, holding the FM to account as is hoped by her supporters, has as much chance of survival as a cuddly baby Hippo because make no mistake the gloves will come off completely from the FM and the claws will slash the Tory leader to shreds and probably with much more brutality then was ever dealt out to the gentle Kezia
The Greens may have thwarted a direct route to Independence but they need not think that means they’ll get the old pals treatment, it will be a case of “My way” by the FM, or It’ll be the new pals treatment and they won’t like her when she’s angry
It’s more likely the first party to buckle under the slightest pressure will be our old friends the Labour party who in order to claw back any semblance of hope and credibility for their own survival will be only too pleased to support the SNP when it becomes clear they can justify it as the right thing to do and it means “Nyoozing the Powers”, and after all the enemy is the Tories, Aren’t they?
I’d put my house on it
@ joemcg
It’s a puzzle to me but I’m no psephologist.
Here’s the BBC archived result for Aberdeenhire West 2016.
https://archive.is/UX33e
Alexander Burnett won with 13,400 votes. The Tory in 2011 got 6.027 votes.
The SNP won in 2011 with 12,186 – actually less than his vote tally this time. Yet the BBC site shows him -7%.
Baffles me. But maybe I’m overlooking something?
Constituency votes from 2011 in a pdf from the Parliament site.
http://www.parliament.scot/msps/election-results.aspx
Ruthy is a sport, mounting buffalo, playing football ice hokey riding bikes repeats any old crap that the Establishment tell her to. Just like an old parrot my grandfather had. It couldn’t think for itself just did tricks on command and repeated what you said to it. However you had to be very careful because this thing could and did bight. Think Ruthy must be watched very carefully. A nasty piece of work if your not careful.
I have to admit, I am one of those who hope for a left influence on the SNP by the Greens and I hope you are wrong about my immanent rude awakening. However, i also happen to think that it is no bad thing that the issue of independence is now more obviously split down policy lines. Tory destruction, or Independence.
I think that the ball is firmly in the SNP’s court now. They must differentiate themselves from the Tory’s neoliberal policies more clearly. ‘Neoliberal light’ wont cut it. They have been soft peddling on many issues which folk feel strongly about. If they lost votes to the Greens it is probably a fraction of the votes they might have lost had folk voted with their conscience rather than in accordance with the ‘both votes SNP’ strategy.
Again, it seems more accurate to me, to read it as the Greens (and by extension the YES vote) losing votes to a bad ‘both votes SNP’ strategy.
Looking at the figures I’d say that many Green, Rise and Solidarity supporters gave their constituency vote to the SNP – anyone able to show me otherwise?
Rev. Stuart Campbell,
“A “pro-indy majority” means absolutely fuck-all. A parliament is not a referendum.”
If only you had spelled it out like that before.
Too many independence supporters were duped.
Green belts are not to be built on. So people can’t get to work. The NE the only growth area in Scotland and an essential by-pass road blocked for 30 years. The region underfunded 30% of other councils for 30 years. The equivalent of £Billions going to the Westminster Treasury. Every City in Europe with a by-pass road and pedestrianised City Centre.The Carbuncle that is being built in the City Centre. £30Million to renovate an Art Gallery but no money for essential services. The Greens are a disgrace. ‘Fair enough’? People sitting in traffic jams for hours or people getting killed and injured, because of a tiny minority of people. Even being fund by Landowners. The public money they have wasted.
They actually can’t hold the SNP to ransom, because of other Parties. If they block a Referendum they are toast.
The won’t back a Murray Tennis Centre which would regenerate the area with visitor numbers etc. 1,000 against.
Too many independence supporters were duped.
Jacky Baillie gets in with a 100 votes, its now a mandate for nuke missiles in Scotland she says.
Slabour say no Trident, rewind one month to the National front page for Faslane, with their banner Baillie goes rogue on nukes
“Jackie Baillie goes rogue on Labour with support for Trident
APRIL 22ND, 2016 – 12:20 AM KIRSTEEN PATERSON 19 COMMENTS
JACKIE Baillie has gone rogue over Trident after refusing to back her party’s manifesto commitment to opposing the renewal of the nuclear weapons system.”
Its worked though. I have really bad buyers remorse right now.
Ach!, we’ve been doing it since the days of Wallace, so, why shouldn’t we Scots mess-up at this election. At least, this time the mistakes were not totally terminal.
The Tories coming second could still work in our favour. The most-annoying thing for me was that totally false rictus grin the tank commander came up with when she won her seat – frightening.
I think she will become emboldened, the mask of caring, concerned Ruthie, the “nice” Tory will slip and she will be revealed as the nasty wee shite she is.
Labour, I suspect, will continue to have an internal fight and if SLAB does not become even less-electable, it will certainly not start a comeback for a while yet.
If the SNP can sort-out the errors which were made this time round, Indyref2 can still happen, more-so as the Westminster Tories continue to piss everyone off.
Nil Desperandum and Noli Illegetemi Carborundum.
Have been reading this and last night’s post – a lot of excellent comments, some inspirational and emotional stuff.
Trying hard to work out why it feels sore. Aside from the obvious fact that, being an SSP member, we were humiliated, it may well be that any reminder of just how many Scots are prepared to vote Tory is utterly sickening. That’s where the sense of despair comes from – the simple fact that a reprehensible party which has never concealed its utter contempt for this country can draw support from Scots who place loyalty to a putrid London Establishment over the welfare of their own compatriots.
I don’t believe I’ve ever used the word ‘hate’ on this site, but I’ll do it now – I fucking HATE the selfish cowards who vote Tory in the safety of the polling booth, then feign indifference to politics in general, or – worse – vote Tory without even telling their nearest and dearest through shame. Think such people don’t exist? Think again – they’re the ones who had a sleekit smile to themselves as they voted No in 2014 out of sheer spite. They’re sick, cringing apologies for human beings, silently venting their bitterness on anyone who, in their estimation, is getting ‘ideas above their station’. They destroy aspiration, creativity and dreams because they have none of their own. They take, take, take, and never give because they have nothing to give. They look down their noses at ‘working-class’ Scots, unaware that, to metropolitan ears, their half-swallowed vowels make them sound only marginally less brutish. They are snobs of the worst kind, only able to affirm their own ‘status’ by reference to whoever happens to exist beneath them.
Fuck them all. And fuck the Conservative party.
Perhaps, now, we’ve shifted into the part of the Gandhi quote which Rev used to have at the top of this site. A veritable army of Tories has appeared in Scotland, as if by magic, to fight us? Is that what’s happening? If so, it’s about time. Bring it on.
And hear this, trolls and spooks – you’re only doing your jobs, but don’t forget that we’re doing ours. You’re doing it for cash and/or entertainment, right? Well, we’re doing it for our weans and we’re not giving in. Ever.
Indy2 will definitely be on the agenda during the whole parliament because Ruthie baby is physically aand mentally incapable of not talking about it. It’s going to be a real fight now. Pro-indy versus anti-indy all the way.
@Rock
We are too stupid to be independent.
Thanks for your contribution. You’re a real asset to the cause.
1/2Million Labour and 1/2Million Labour list votes were ignored. Tories got 20 MSP’s for 1/2Million list votes. Greens got 6 MSP’s for 130,000 votes. LibDems 5 MSP’s for 200,000 votes?. It depends on regional votes. Instead of list votes being added up Nationally and distributed proportionally for List MSP’s The system is flawed. A non democratic farce.
If Holyrood politicians believed in Democracy it would be changed ASAP. Aye right.
heedtracker————–
It is Judy Murray along with Colin Montgomery and backed by alex Ferguson that wants to build on rich agricultural land NOT ANDY Murray……..
This is not about tennis courts, a golf course or expensive houses……It is about greed………….Yes greed. The greed of millionaires and nothing else.
The area is already full of Golf Clubs Tennis Courts and the Sports College in Brig of Alan.
Ken 500——–
I used to live there and its not exactly Fort Apache the Bronx !!!!!!!!!!!!!p
@ Ian Brotherhood – Well said my wee brother xx
I did say more then once that the Greens couldn’t be trusted and so it has proved. How can they look themselves in the mirror today having contributed to the Buffalo Rider winning a constituency seat.
I am pleased Andy Wightman got elected but as for the rest of them, well they can gtf.
It is only Labours utter humiliation that covers up what a horrible result this is.
We have to face the fact that a lot of the Indy Yes vote have just not turned out to vote. I think that the SNP etc have to sit down and seriously ask themselves why.
The fact that Nuclear Bailie has held on in Dumbarton West sickens me. A lot of the Yes vote has just sat on its hands there – WHY?
The other seats that the SNP lost didn’t totally surprise me. I was surprised they took Aberdeenshire West and North East Fife and Edinburgh South in 2011.
It was the failure to take Dumbarton West and the loss of Edinburgh Central that hurt.
In the cold light of day it is obvious that a lot of the Yes vote couldn’t be arsed voting at all and that for me was just as damaging when it came to the SNP taking the needed list seats.
This result wasn’t bad – just not as good as we had hoped. The SNP are still the biggest party by far in a system designed to produce a PR result and stuff the SNP.
The major issue wasn’t list votes on their own. I voted SNPx2 and elected Christine Graham and 3 list MSPs. No problem here, but the bollocks about 65 constituency seats elsewhere had its effect. It COULD have been worth a gamble in some areas – but where, and to what effect?
The key thing was Yoon tactical voting. Tories held their noses in Edinburgh and voted Labour as in the GE, Labour did the same for them in the Buffalo Rider’s seat, and they both helped the Liars Party in Edinburgh West.
This is the big issue next year – Yoons will vote 1,2,3 for each other in key areas under STV, so that without 50% in the first round SNP will be eliminated. It is essential to focus on getting the vote out next time, and showing up the Tories of all colours for what they are.
List votes one way or the other were not the key to this result – the system performed as it was intended to do.
It might focus a few on the radical fringes to get real – but probably not.
La lutte continuera.
So the BBC’s little trick worked…
Paint the SNP as merely needing to turn up to win, and a good number of their support won’t feel the need to turn out on the day.
1.5 Million voted Yes, but only 1 million voted SNP yesterday.
Where the hell did half a million voters go???
@Capella 7:56
The percentage change they are talking about is percentage of the vote share.
The result of 2016 is quite similar to the 2011, except 7000 extra Tories have appeared from nowhere. 6027 in 2011, but 13400 in 2016. The numbers voting for the other parties only changed by a few hundred here and there. Very odd.
The tories must have been super organised or 7000 people suddenly all felt very motivated, or something, to double the number of their voters.
@ Ian Brotherhood.
Your keyboard’s probably still smouldering but yea, yea and thrice yea.
But hold on, IB, we still have the gruesome pleasure of seeing the FM ritually disembowel the Tank-Straddler every week. Bet she’s having nightmares already.
Oh, dearie, dearie me…..
Albaman says: “The tank commander is about to get a taste of her own medicine, as she is now firmly in the political cross hairs”
She will continue to do what she has always done. She will sit waving a piece of A4 paper as if in possession of factual material whilst mouthing an imaginary verbal response, aka failure.
The Dug has already been humiliated and exposed for what she is – an absolute clueless cretin. Droothy Ruthy is up next, she will be quickly exposed for what she is – a bad tempered nasty wee thicko.
And just watch and laugh as Wee Willie jumps up and down on the sidelines screaming leave my pals alone or i’m telling my mummy.
Things may not have turned out as we had wished but the next parliamentary period is going to be interesting to say the least not to mention funny as FFFFFrancis.
It’s now game on so bring it on!
K1,
“And the problem with GOTV was the complacency generated by the MSM, Common Space, Bella Caledonia, The National, The Sunday Herald, John Curtice, RISE, Tommy Sheridan, Loki…note the indy credentials.”
They did it deliberately.
The enemy within and the enemy without.
Including Greens and ex-Greens pretending to be SNP activists to dupe SNP supporters into giving the list vote to the Greens.
@Paula Rose
Thats right, Greens voting SNP on constituency look just the same as SNP voting Green on the list. We’ll never know.
The party gained 6 constituency seats, surely that is something to be happy about and still a good result considering all the forces that are working against them.
I don’t agree with Constituency candidates of any party taking places on the list; if you were rejected by the electorate in the constituency then fuck off, you were obviously not wanted.
So tired now after staying up all night supposedly to watch Wee
Ruth Krankie, Wee Wullie Winkie, Jaba the Hut, Dipity Dug all being rejected.
I, and I think many of us have let our beliefs and wishes drive us beyond the reality of our circumstances.
All of the polls that I’ve seen since the referendum have shown that the No camp are still slightly ahead.
From this we should recognise that 47% of the vote is just about all that we could expect, and that is what we got.
I have always maintained that 2021 was the soonest date we could win a referendum mark 2, as the stats on the last one showed that the older generation, in general were against change and the No Pension and No NHS threats of Better Together got to them
In 2021, because we Scots have short life spans, will see this generation replaced by the teenagers who will use social media
and find the truth and who want more control over their own lives.
SNP are still in a strong position as a party, as we have more seats than all the Westminster parties added together.
They/we will be able to make Scotland better over the next 5 years.
We must again recognise that a significant percentage of the votes against SNP are nurtured and delivered by the elitist owned newspapers, TV and Radio Stations. None of them impartial
or neutral, but biased and nonsensical as they would like to be.
I feel fairly comfortable with myself as I’ve joined the party, donated to many supportive causes, dropped leaflets, engaged with everybody I meet, and stock up education from sites like this and wonderful journalists like the Rev.
We must all agree to start the journey to 2021 now, and engage
with more than we have in recent times.
The same effort is likely to deliver the same result.
I cannot find reason why Ordinary Working to Middle Class Scots would Vote Tory. I see them voting for an abrasive bully that would be better suited to be a ventriloquist’s doll than an MSP.
Her leaflets even dropped the name of her party as its record in Scotland is so toxic.
Are these Scots actually saying that we like austerity maxi in order to pay for the Casino Banker friends gambling habits.
Are they saying that paying for the NHS with your Taxes isn’t enough, charge us again for prescriptions so that rich people and corporations don’t need to pay their way.
My daughter went to university without fees, gained a good job,
worked her way up, and now pays the nation back big time with the Tax that she pays.
This works for me but Wee Bride of Chucky wants to charge like a bull and keep the poorer kids with talent out of University, while also claiming the attainment gap is intolerable?
How about the £7Billion that the Tories tried to steal from Scotland a few weeks ago. Do You see this as a positive for Scotland, when we are robbed by the Westminster Treasury???
Orkney & Shetland is another enigma!
Local Fib Dem lies himself into a job, tarnishes the reputation of our Elected First Minister and the French diplomats, and sees £1,000,000 of our limited funds wasted on an Inquiry.
Carmichael’s own party suggest that lying is all part of politics, and the fiend then tries to bankrupt innocents that
want him brought to justice, and yet these banjo pluckers return 2 more Fib Dems in their bolt hole to keep lying alive?
God knows our education system must have a fundamental flaw
that these crooks can find 2 votes to rub together.
Ken 500 @8.02
The area where they want to build the Murray Tennis Centre does not need ‘regeneration’.
It is one of the most well-heeled in Scotland.
Now Coatbridge on the other hand or around that or similar areas certainly would benefit from such a centre. In fact rather than building one very large centre building several small ones around the country and Highlands and islands certainly would bring benefits to the communities in which they were built. Much, in fact, as Carnegie’s libraries built around Scotland brought great benefits to the communities in which they were built and continue to operate to this day.
SNP 1058,897 constituency votes (1) + 953,587 list votes (2) = 2,012,484 votes.
Greens 1300 + 150,426 votes = 151,726 votes (Indy?)
= 2,164,210 for Indy – more than Ref?
Total Lab/Tory/LibDems = 2,273,768
More voters than at Indy.
Do we need an SNP majority government in order to persuade people to support independence? Well,it could be argued that we can’t “convert” many more people without a referendum campaign,but that kind of makes a mockery of the SNP position that there won’t be another referendum until a large number of people change from union to Indy.I think the Greens will support a referendum when there is a significant majority of the people in favour of independence.Just like the SNP.I think the one million signature petition thing is a bit of a red herring because if you can’t do that quite easily,you ain’t gonna win a referendum anyway.
Here’s a thought.If we had enough activists to find out the names and addresses of every Indy inclined person in Scotland and then deliver 90% of their votes,we’d win a ref no bother.The sad fact is,though,that we don’t have nearly enough activists prepared to put in nearly enough work to take on and beat the union and their media.This can and must change before we even consider another referendum.
I know a few Scottish Labour who are not bothered at last nights results
1.snp lost majority
2.unionist vote strong,what ever party
The result of 2016 is quite similar to the 2011, except 7000 extra Tories have appeared from nowhere.
They didn’t. They were always there. These 7000 were the die hard Unionist Labour supporters …who liked Ruthie’s tub-thumping Britnat nonsense that much, that they moved from Labour to the Tories. That’s all.
Nothing changed in ideological circles. All that happened was some Red Tories decided to become Blue Tories within the greater Unionist Sphere.
There has be no seismic earthquake in Scotland. No earth-shattering revelation that changes anything.
On Wednesday, Scotland was split 50-50 over independence.
Today, Scotland remains split 50-50 over independence.
Nothing changed with this election.
I have to say I am a little surprised by some of the negativity from many: The SNP after all won! True they missed out on a majority but they should still be able to form a working government even without the Greens as they have done previously.
A key aim of the independence movement has been to destroy the current unionist Labour party and that has all but been achieved at this election but it would naive to imagine that nothing would fill in the vacuum left by their absence. Since the SNP themselves took many from Labour’s left, it’s only natural that those on the unionist right would gravitate towards the Tories.
In a way it makes things a lot more clear cut now that it’s the SNP versus the Tories rather than versus Labour. It really is a clash of ideas now as opposed to a somewhat tribal conflict as we had against Labour. I am looking forwards to it.
Well said Ian B at 8:07
It’s not a disaster, we actually held ground but did not progress against all the forces of darkness that the Establishment continue to throw at us.
… and we’ll never hear the ‘One Party State’ mince again!
We’ll be back out later in the year to get the remaining Labour leeches out of our councils so we can move forward at all levels. (We had a wee run in with Frank MacAveety during yesterday’s GOTV in Townhead – long story – but it showed why ordinary folk have stopped voting for his coterie).
With 45.2% of the vote the SNP got 63 out of 129 seats, 5 more than their vote share should have entitled them to.
The system is fairly democratic.
The problem is the complexity of it which the unionists and the enemy within (Greens, The National, Bella, Newsnet etc) exploited to the full which made SNP supporters complacent.
I had been warning that it was essential for the SNP to get more than 50% of the vote:
“Total SNP vote of more than 50% is essential to keep the independence struggle on track.
Pro independence SNP supporters have only three choices:
SNP+SNP or SNP+SNP or SNP+SNP.”
The likes of Ian Brotherhood didn’t like my records:
Ian Brotherhood,
“@Rock –
Do you own a record collection?
If so, is it, by any chance, very very very small?”
Trust he is having second thoughts about his big record collection and even bigger mouth.
headtracker @ 7.49.
It is not just the Greens blocking Park of Keir, far from it.
You do know by the way that little, if in fact any, Murray money is going into the tennis centre? They are looking to get money from various sources such as the LTA so one way or another the money will come from the taxpayer.
Agree with you about the infrastructure down south eg roads.
But I don’t think we are ever going to agree on PoK.
To be honest I did not think or did not want another referendum in the next five years. I had pencilled in 2021 or just after for a number of reasons which I won’t go into.
So having said that, the fact that the SNP just missed out on a majority does not change the fact for me, that for the referendum to be called after 2021 they would still have to regain another majority.
The only real concern I have at the moment is, is that majority actually achievable.
Green votes Constituency (1) 1300 + 150426 list (2) votes much more second votes for Greens
SNP constituency votes 1,058,897 (1) voted + 953,587 (2) votes. Less second voted for SNP.
Take 1300 – 150426 = number (2) voted. More. 150426 (2) votes counted = 6 MSP’s
Take 953,587 from 1,058,897 = number (2) votes for SNP. Less. 1/2Million (2) votes did not count. No MSP’s.
(2) list votes are not counted Nationally and distributed regionally.
Holy Fuck! My wife and I live in Moray. We both voted SNP x 2, no doubt with many others. Lochhead is re elected, but we also end up with 2 x Tory list MSPs.
A guy mooted as a “local farmer” – Sir Edward Mountain, a Landowner and Baronet of an English County (I shit you not) and Douglas Ross – Young Tory Britnat.
Thanks a fucking bunch to incomers associated with the British Army and Royal Air Force at Kinloss and Lossiemouth for voting for these fucks.
Fucking sick of these cunts. Move in, vote against Scottish interests ( such as in 2014 referendum) and then fuck off back where they came from when their tour ends or in later life in retirement.
I even had one of these ex RAF types rub the Referendum result in my face before telling me he and his wife were moving south to be nearer their daughter in York.
Call me what you want, but I’m utterly sick of them.
If Indy doesn’t come within 10 years, my wife and I are bailing this colony and certainly won’t be settling in the land of the colonisers.Scotland as a Country will no longer exist.
@ Ruby
The lack of a bit of paper does,nt stop people from watching live TV. I have lots of bits of paper from the Beep all in letter form, some even have Rid writing ( weil ah lot of Rid writing) Dont Pay The Licence Fee WATCH IT FOR FREE.
Fuck it
I am taking the weekend off……..
Back on Monday……..
I think we all should…..
Fuck it
Slange
It is totally because the list system is flawed. The votes are not counted Nationally and distributed regionally. it means 1million of votes do not count. It is absurd on every level. Some regions are over representated some are under representated. Or represented by Parties for whom voters did not vote. There should be more Lab + SNP and less Tory, LibDem and Greens. It is an absolute farce.
No wonder it is difficult to get an absolute majority.
@mealer
Im not following that logic at all. We just had an election, and seats were allocated.
We do not have indyref2 in a manifesto, and we do not have a majority, so we can gtf. This is being repeated already.
Like the Rev and a few others, I think the prize is off the table, unless we have Redcoats up here carrying out flogging in front of Holyrood, how are the folk going to ‘demand’ it?
As they are fond of saying – the question has been settled. If SNP were brave enough, or their private polling was good, wouldn’t they have at least put it in the manifesto?
They were trying softly monkey, the loyalists were wooed by Ruth, frightened at the thought of another SNP gov’t calling a referendum, just on the size of their majority.
As others have said, Ruth ran the anti referendum party, and it paid off.
I can’t see beyond this car crash at the moment, and I am reading all comments.
……but Willie Rennie won NE Fife, Willie Rennie!………Willie fuckin Rennie!!……..
Someone please wake me up from this nightmare.
Willie Rennie……..
@scotspine – At least that fat cunt Coburn didn’t get into our parliament
@JLT
This is Aberdeenshire West we’re talking about, so Labour arent players.
I think I worked out whats going on there. Looks like the mystery 7000 voted lib dem in 2007, didnt vote at all in 2011, and voted tory in 2016.
So the Unionists are getting suddenly smarter at tactical voting. Question is, are they robots? Do they have a central Yoon-Control? Have they had chips fitted?
The SNP did get (2) votes 1/2Million but no MSP’s for them. Labour got 1/2Million (2) votes but no MSP’s for them, because the (2) votes are not added nationally and then distributed regionally, proportionately.
Tories got 1/2Million (2) votes and got 20 MSP’s for them. The Tories hallaballou is a farce.
MSM spouting nonsense again. Just as annoying. Can’t count.
@Rock –
Woooooo!
A rare outburst of aggression from the normally impassive Rock.
I guess that ‘wee’ comment must’ve stung, eh? Otherwise it wouldn’t have taken you three days to respond.
Anyway, you carry on with your mission to destroy The National and I’ll keep blabbing with my big mouth, if for no other reason than to annoy ‘the likes of’ you.
🙂
“If Indy doesn’t come within 10 years, my wife and I are bailing this colony and certainly won’t be settling in the land of the colonisers.Scotland as a Country will no longer exist.”
Scotspine, yes it will. We’ve been through this crap since the 18th. century, and we’re closer than ever to independence.
The Britnats love us all falling out and despairing. Think of all the 70 and 80+ers who fought on when they were laughed at by the Yoons in the 1960s, and with no prospect of success. I’ve been voting SNP since 1974, when a wee man at a polling station in EK said, quite simply, “Vote for your country, son.” We are closer than ever to success, hence the Media shitstorm.
Keep the faith: not long now.
Croomp
At the count this morning in Dingwall, when the Ukip Toad was making his way out, he was trying to make a phone call, prob to Nigel) with the speaker on. ” You have no Network…”
Oh how we all laughed
Ken500, stop going on about the list votes with all your numbers. It looks like you dont understand how it works, and repeating it in various different formats doesnt help
I wish more people voted. So many people don’t vote. We’ll need these people who don’t vote. They’re more important than discussion about the people who voted for fringe parties. More important than discussing the people who voted tactically for a unionist party. We can’t do anything about those.
But those people who didn’t vote. So many people. We need them. We need to find out why they don’t vote. Council Elections coming up means they, the non voters will grow in numbers. We’ll need them even more then. Probably won’t givem their due discussion. We never do. We’re not so smart.
And yes, we do need to work out how we go after the media. I wonder if we can talk about this in party circles. Bloomin sure as a finger fits an arse the SNP would do well to get some of their excreta together and run some sims and estimate the positive expected value of going after thon media. It might be revealing.
I felt this morning much the same as i felt years ago when i knew I had to get out of Scotland before i go mad. Had to go and did. But Jockland is in my heart. It’s okay being in Scotland. Good for the creative soul. So much work to be done. So much room for improvement.
Move on. what does it mean to move on? Move on where, to what? If moving on entails some measure of reviewing the play, the strategy, the doings, and looking for improvements, then yes, I/we/they/awbdy move on. If it just means deleting old files and opening new ones. No.
If we were optimal we can get independence soon as. We are so far from optimal. That’s a good thing and a bad thing. Those mutitudes who don’t vote. I wonder what it would take to get a cross in a box from them, and what box? We’ll need them. Imagine if we really pulled together and did our best, what we could achieve. When everyone does the thing they are best at. Like a real team effort. Rare.
Feel a bit numb still. Branch meetings Monday. Can’t wait.
Don’t know much about the Greens,but I guess I’m about to find out.
I think they deserve to be cut some slack,at least initially.
At the time they pinned their colours to the independence mast,support for indy was sitting around 27% I believe.
To align their party with such an unpopular potentially poisoned chalice at the time showed decent principle,and I was grateful for their support.
We have to work with what we have and try broaden the progressive appeal of independence.
BTW just for non Twitter types.
South of the Border comments range from -wtf is going on, putting Tories in place, to
the likes of Faisal Islam, the Sky politics editor taking the piss that there is no mandate for a second referendum.
Just in case you think I’m being self indulgently pessimistic.
OK we’re all agreed the media screws us over and the BBC & SKY are corrosive with their continual misrepresentation of reality and manufactured agendas. Also that we’ll never get broadcasting devolved or be allowed to fund a channel.
I’ve several times suggested a phone based video news service as a workaround for creating a focus for what you’d otherwise have to surf twitter etc to find and of adding accessible analysis and reporting without broadcast licensing requirements or mega cost.
Since nobody responds I’m clearly barking up a tree in the wrong forrest but can someone please say why this is pointless to consider when we all carry phones and we need gamechangers.
I realise you’ll only get people who are willing to look to try it and you’ll need some devoted volunteers or crowd funding to run it.
Are there blindingly obvious reasons it’s dumb that I’m to naive to see?
Best laugh of the night was Rev tweeting polling predictions with actual results
Carmichael might as well leak,Nicola told the Mexican president Scots can’t get enough of the drugs
he will romp home
Immediately after the referendum the Greens increased their membership by more than 5000. I don’t think it’s wrong to assume they were mainly Yes voters.
It’s going to be interesting to see what happens if Harvie does start to backpedal on Independence, or rather if more Greens become aware he is doing so now.
A more pro-independence leadership challenge?
It’s just a farce Willie Rennie and 20 Tories (as a proportion of votes) should not be there. Just picture them invisible. Voters will get absolutely fed up of this ‘democracy’. If Holyrood politicians do not get it sorted out. Voters will turn against it and the corruption. Millions of votes being disregarded.
Can’t wait for Davidson v Sturgeon at question time .
Ruthie will be exposed for what she is, an austerity supporter of Osborne and a fraud who supports privatisation and all that goes with being a Tory.
Labour are in even more trouble than you think. They can’t be seen to support the Tories so it might prove easier to get legislation through.
The Greens can’t support the Tories either and they will probably abstain.
It’s nowhere near as bad as you think and if opinion polls show support for Independence and a desire for a second referendum, who is DAVIDSON to deny it.
Valerie: ignore the Establishment media, it’s what they do, and they love us getting all depressed and throwing in the towel.
Situation normal, all fcked up, as they said in WWII.
The FM will be working right now about how she can eliminate the Straddler.
And she will be humiliated, believe me.
You have to be in it for the long game, this independence business. We are up against the most adept, ruthless bunch of carpet-baggers since the last lot, so you either face up or fold.
I know that we will have an independent Scotland in my daughters’ lifetime: they’re MSM virus proof.
That’s the digital dividend.
strange how all those arguing for snp1&2 are now complaining about the electoral system and how unfair it all is.
cant say i didnt say, i told you so.
anyways, no point crying over spilt milk
the snp won another historic term in government
if the other parties refuse to back a budget, the snp can just stand down, let the unionists try a form a minority government and we can do the same,
there must be a mechanism to call another election,
i dont think the 400k of snp voters who voted in 2015 would be so complacent again
eitherway, we now have to wait until the eu ref result before we can plan for the future,
so take a break and think of 2 forward plans for both possible outcomes
@Helena Brown says: 6 May, 2016 at 6:23 pm:
“As far as I am concerned if you offer the Greens carbon capture or a few more windmills, the will sell their souls.”
I agree with you on that, Helena.
“I rather suspect they were actually safe from them and their delightful policies whilst they voted for them,the two faced gits.”
What seems not generally recognized by most people in the independence movement is that they are not fighting either just the Tory, Labour or LibDem party in any particular referendum or election.
What they face, no matter which pro-independence party you choose to support, is The United Kingdom, “Establishment”.
While the unionist parties will, like most close families, have their own, often bitter, internal conflicts. They will close ranks and stand together against any upstart outsiders of, “The Establishment”.
When you consider, “The Establishment”, includes far, far more than just the unionist political parties, encompassing the Head of State herself, her extended family, the aristocracy, Civil Service, Security Services, Armed Forces, Established Churches, Elite Educational Establishments and even such organisations as The Loyal Orange Order, you begin to realise just what a breath-taking task the gaining of Scottish independence really is.
Things could be worse, we are still in the game of independence. Not many governments get a third term. We must have some sort of democracy. We have to build on our success and keep working towards independence. It’s obviously a long game. We can play that game. Freedom is worth playing the long game. Events have the habit of changing the game from a long game to a short one. Events happen more often than you would think.
‘strange how all those arguing for snp1&2 are now complaining about the electoral system and how unfair it all is.’
‘strange how some people arguing for snp1&2 are now complaining about the electoral system and how unfair it all is.’
There, fixed that for you.
According to Ruthless Davidson because the SNP did not have Indy Ref 2 In their manifesto it’s not allowed. Isn’t it about time the SNP went on the offensive and explained nicely that because Smith ( Scotland ) Bill was voted against by every toryman and Red Tory that all bets are OFF!
Well i voted green and snp coz there is no point in having an independent scotland where nature has been destroyed by greedy oul companies. I want a strong green influence on the snp coz they just cant be trusted alone. Many if not most yessers were (and are!) not snp but lend their vote strategically to the snp. So – FRACK OFF with your negativity. Positivity got us this far.
The list system doesn’t work. The total lists votes should be counted in total nationally if they are to be counted and then distributed proportionately. Otherwise it is unfair because votes cast for a Party are not included. The Tories got 20 MSP’s for 1/2Million votes. Labour and SNP got no representation for 1/2Million votes each. 1million votes no representation.
137,000 list (2) SNP votes in NE no MSP’s. Greens got 150,000 list votes – 6 MSP’s
Greens increased by members 5000 nationally. Out of 4million? Electorate.
https://caltonjock.com/2016/04/04/married-mark-clarke-tory-future-chairman-of-west-indian-descent-i-am-white-up-top-but-all-black-down-below-on-women-my-philosophy-is-isolate-inebriate-penetrate-his-re/
Jist like the fitba tho intit Scotland couldne wait till the final whistle afore Effin it up wae arguin over who wiz gonny be the subs and then playin them afore they were ready
An efter it naebdy takes the blame fur bein an Erse
Funnily enough just like the Labour party
@Ken500 9:52pm
How can you say those million votes got no representation?
They were second votes, and in the SNP’s case the first vote got the representation.
I don’t think analysing this to death does us any good.
Better to spend our energy working out how to now play the hand we’ve been dealt.
“When you consider, “The Establishment”, includes far, far more than just the unionist political parties, encompassing the Head of State herself, her extended family, the aristocracy, Civil Service, Security Services, Armed Forces, Established Churches, Elite Educational Establishments and even such organisations as The Loyal Orange Order, you begin to realise just what a breath-taking task the gaining of Scottish independence really is.”
That’s what we’re up against, and it’s not going to be easy, but it just takes a bit more perseverence. Robert Peffers has been doing this since WWII, I’m sure. I actually don’t give a Flying Carmichael if I see it in my lifetime. As long as my kids do, that’s enough for me. And that’s our strength.
The Yoons don’t get it, because they only have personal interest, not vision.
Just a few more years, troops, but keep the faith and keep focused.
Yoons love despair: “Give them no tear, tears pleasure them.”
How to fix the d’hont system. Why does there have to be 2 votes. Isn’t one enough (ie SNP one million plus constituency votes – 950,000 Regional votes)
ignore the Establishment media, it’s what they do, and they love us getting all depressed and throwing in the towel.
ignore the shite about Tories doing well, their vote share was 22% this time which is less than it was in 1987 when they were wiped out.
This 22% was achieved with the help of ‘I hate the SNP’ Labour and Lib Dem voters, and using the proportional system which they would never allow at Westminster. They are circling the Union Jack for their last stand. The remainder of Labour dont know what the fcuk to do.
Our vote is solid. There is no movement away from SNP to other parties. The new Green membership are Yes voters who joined in 2014. some of the softer SNP vote might have voted Green on the list, but equally many Greens will have voted SNP at constituency.
Things are going to get interesting at Holyrood. The BBC will show plenty of Ruths questions, but few of Nicolas answers…
Work to be done.
Owe it to our kids/grandkids
@Ken500
I feel your pain Ken but you need to calm down, I’m worried for your health.
The electoral system is what was there to be won under and at the end of the day none of your anguish is going to change the result.
Channel it somehow into something positive, if you can.
We will rise and come back at them. Complacency cost us, aided by the institutions of this corrupt state, but the summer campaign to shift soft No’s carries on regardless.
Unless something truly seismic happens, realistically, IndyRef#2 was never on the cards in the next 5 years anyway. That was my view before the vote yesterday and it remains my view today. And should, per chance, somethig truly seismic occur and Scottish opinion swings dramatically towards UKEXIT, then the SNP will try and get such a bill through the Scottish parliament. If the Greens don’t support the the IndyRef#2 Bill then they will have truly cooked their goose and will be totally stuffed at the next elections.
So, for me, today nothing very much has changed in terms of the Indy2 landscape and Scotland’s inexorable journey towards it. Indy will come but only when the time is right. And that time will most likely take the next 5 years to build up a good najority in support. After IndyRef#1 I examined all the figures and demographics and had calculated 2021/22 as the time to go. And that’s the way it’s looking. We have to be patient and build the supprt.
We all knew that yesterday. Okay, so the fuck what – the Colonial Media are having wet dreams and multiple orgasms along with BuckaRooth that they have stemmed the SNP tide. Have they fuck!!!! We INCREASED the SNP vote yesterday. More people are voting SNP than EVER before.
And what’s more – they know they haven’t halted our progress. If they think they have then they are just seriously deluding themselves. Yes – they had their little moments last night and today in the sunlight. Truth is though – THEY GOT HUMPED last night by the SNP! THAT’S the truth Ruth. And NO amount of Colonial Media spin will ever change that fact. And no amount of Colonial Media spin will ever be capable of stopping the SNP juggernaut.
Keep calm and keep the faith. Two steps forward and the occasional wee step back just to check the lie of the land – but we are WINNING the hearts and minds! And in 5 years or so (unless the unexpected occurs), we’ll be ready. And they’ll be bricking it. And we will win.
Of that I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever.
It’s not 400K SNP voters. It’s 1Million+ Will folk get the figures right.
It’s funny how the one’s advocating SNP voters to give 2nd vote to the Greens. Are now saying, ‘there’s not milk spilt.’ Even being told time and again not to by the Rev and others. Now find not only is Willie Rennie elected but a bunch of Tories and Greens. SNP majority falls. Then even add the comment, ‘some people never learn’.
@ Glamaig
you could be right about LibDems vote in 2007 being higher. Will check tomorrow. For now I’m going to catch up on some sleep.
The Yoons may gloat – they think they’ve triumphed – till they sober up and realize there’s an Indy majority and it is a bit more radical than it was yesterday.
Craig Murray posted this on his blog last night:
“Yes, the Wings article is entirely disingenuous. here is absolutely no danger at all that the SNP will lose its majority.”
Craig Murray is doing a great job exposing the hypocrites of the world on his blog.
But on Scottish politics, his hatred of the SNP destroys his credibilty, as is the case with Jim Sillars.
Well, it is all a bit simpler now. Yoons against Indies.
The SNP increased their vote even if it didn’t equate to bums on seats in Holyrood. Ruthie has ensured that is all about the constitution and we can hold her to account for what the Westminster Tories do.
Ok we might have to wait a few more years but some of us have been working and hoping for independence for decades. A few more years gives us time to wipe out the red Tories at all levels and then it is a straight yes v nawbag fight and we will win.
At least there’s no sign Willie Young.
re;Valerie@9.18
I can quite believe it Valerie, the gullible bbc watchers and Graun readers that I know in NE england will be smarmy as hell in their ignorance. Things like, wy-i, alwaaays ynew the scots was tories at the end o the day like!
I really don’t give a flying fck what they think though, I just say to them why do yous vote liebour all the time like turkeys voting for xmas, that gets them riled lol!
Folks I’m repeating this again. WHY DOES THERE NEED TO BE TWO VOTES IN THE D’HONT SYSTEM FOR THE Scottish Parliament ?????. Why is the first vote not enough ??.
ALSO
Shouldn’t we start to push for the BBC to be a subscription channel.
Shouldn’t we start to push for the BBC to be a subscription channel.
It was a possibility, with a majority. Glen Campbell was near hysterical with excitement last night, when the first tory win came in. So not now.
ewen says:
“Well, it is all a bit simpler now. Yoons against Indies. ”
Are you sure it’s not Cowboys against Indies?
“The first (and from our perspective, most important) thing to note is that independence is now categorically and unequivocally off the table for at least half a decade.”
Cobblers.
Channel 4 is also a UK public state broadcaster like the BBC but C4 News teatime tonight were complete and utter Ruth grovellers which was very odd to watch.
Was Ruth Davidson the new tory Scottish First Minister, in her third term, as Scotland’s fledgling democracy gets piddled on by patrician old tory Jon Snow once again?
Rancid The Graun that has most fun trolling Scottish democracy tonight
“On a reduced turnout, the SNP’s share of the vote slipped from 50% in the UK general election to 46.5% in the constituency section and 42% in the regional list this time. These are commanding shares, but they suggest that the SNP may have peaked. Ms Sturgeon has been given food for thought. Considering the SNP’s long run of success, this is a refreshing and necessary development in what has begun to seem a bit like a one-party state.”
Looks like its the “armed with the “devo-more” powers” what’s going to end it all for us. Our imperial masters have given us 5 more years of fun and that’s it, teamGB will take back it’s Scotland region, via Ruth Davidson.
The Guardian says so, that’s why.
It won’t change the result but changing the system will to what it is supposed to be – proportional representation. Not a total farce.
Be concerned by the Electoral system being a total farce. With total misrepresentation in proportion to the votes cast. The regional votes list system because the votes are not totalled nationally and distributed regionally proportionately. Parties picking up totally disproportional votes. It’s a joke. A game of chance.
The nonsense now being spouted by MSM etc,
Just more mind games from the MSM- they were banging on about “guaranteed” and “5 more years” and all that absolute shite- another Vow style fast-one pulled at the last minute. Depress the vote. What is the S Herald’s explanation? What other explanation could there be for Sunday’s front page? Boycott.
Enough has been spoken on here about splitting votes and I cannot endure reading any more of it. It seems to me that it is nearly impossible to achieve a majority in Holyrood and to do it in these circumstances after 2 terms, with a hostile, scheming, active campaigning unionist press hammering us for years was near impossible.
Seats are everything (in Holyrood) and the SNP had their second best result; indeed the second best result anyone has achieved. The fact that so many of us are so devastated shows how the yoon propaganda has worked on us. It is the way they work- they can spin this as a defeat.
Radio 4 were talking about Lib Dem gains… they ended up with the same number of seats in their joint worst performance. Labour obviously tanked and took fewer seats than the SNP have ever managed (and yet more than the tories managed up until today).
And the tories had their best result ever. But how did this come about?
Defending so many seats splits resources I suppose and attacking so few focusses them. It does all smack of a carve up.
Do we think that the Better Together team met, carved up the map and put the duff candidates and spent zero in some and threw everything at their handful of targets in collusion?
I got almost nothing through the door from anyone except SNP and no canvassers. I have heard that target seats were getting leaflets every second day.
It is almost inconceivable these allies didn’t work together at the backroom level. They screwed up in 2015 and wanted to ensure no repeat. It takes more than tactical voting to explain these tory shifts- was there an element of agreed sabotage in other parties target seats?
Maybe we will never know- the tories have certainly played labour again and the MSM have had their back every step of the way.
I can’t help feeling like we miss Ian Bell to provide a bit of reality and perspective.
One thing I cannot understand are these constant rules that the indy side keep creating about referendums. It is bad enough when the unionists do it but to read on a prominent indy site like this a referendum being ruled out when we are entering such a turbulent period is pointless in my view.
The first act of the new parliament should be an SNP motion that the Scottish Parliament can call a referendum as and when the Scottish Parliament decides and the Green MSPs can put their money where their mouth is and settle the question for the duration of the parliament.
Our job as I see it for the time being: 1. find ways of destroying the BBC. 2. Put the unionist MSPs under the microscope like the press will be doing with the pro-indy MSPs.
One last thought- thanks to all on Wings and in the wider movement who took time to campaign, leaflet, canvas and work so hard to secure a good result in difficult circumstances.
Lets try and keep positive and push this forward. A win is a win is a win. The only beneficiaries of acrimony amongst us are the unionists.
@ Proud Cybernat and ewen: yes, and in spades.
Independence is a process and the Establishment, though wily, are not original thinkers.
Everything is on our side. Do you think the FM, Honest John and Stuart Hosie are going to be outsmarted?
Let the dice fall where they may…..
5-live radio 22:20
harmon said –“labour dont need to win in scotland for labour to win power,however difficult that may be”
@ John from Fife
still awake! If you watch James Kelly’s video over on Scot Goes Pop he explains it.
You have a FPTP vote to elect a representative who is accountable to the constituency. You then elect a rep who is chosen according to the proportion of votes cast per party.
I.e. it’s a compromise between accountability and proportionality. But a little skewed by Labour when setting it up – naturally.
Ian Brotherhood,
“Anyway, you carry on with your mission to destroy The National and I’ll keep blabbing with my big mouth, if for no other reason than to annoy ‘the likes of’ you.”
Did you give your list vote to the SNP?
The National did its best to reduce the SNP vote.
Its last day SNP support was window dressing to make sure gullible independence supporters keep on buying it.
Why should I be annoyed?
I was proved right yet again while you with your big mouth and record collection were proven wrong.
Still on the topic of Moray, my Labour stalwart cousin voted Conservative 1 and 2. The British nationalist comrades are certainly realigning.
Reading between the lines Indy Ref 2 has to happen by or before 2020 otherwise there maybe problems.
Does anyone think that any of the TV stations will ever mention the Scottish Government in their NON BIASED news items. HA HA
Davidson is the most disgusting and dishonest politician in Scotland in my view.
Ian Brotherhood might not like me repeating this record.
But be ready to be sickened to death by Davidson’s performance in the Scottish parliament in her new role as leader of the opposition.
Scotspine@8.57
Spot on, (Thinking the same) you forgot to mention the retirement complexes that are filling up with naysaying yoons, quite happy to move to Scotland and get free prescriptions etc. but have absolutely no interest in Scottish Independence.
Happy with their lot in Scotchland but oblivious to the solid work the SNP are doing.
As said on previous posts the SNP should give Scotland a real taste of what Westminster policies are doing to the country, the fu*kers voted Tory give them Tory policies.
John Swinney is a legend.
Always SNP “You know it makes sense”
@Rev
You put your heart and soul and blog posts into trying to secure an overall SNP majority, to make it easy to get Indy ref 2 when appropriate, as did many of us including me. That was Plan A.
Well, it didn’t work, but we do have an overall pro-Indy majority, and they’ll make it work. That’s Plan B, we’re on it now.
You want more Plans? Well, there’s Plan C, Plan D …
Don’t forget the SNP and 1979. After that Referendum the SNP split off and fell apart, with Alex Salmond leading the charge. He then disappeared from history and Devolution, and an Independence Referendum never happened.
Oh, that’s wrong. Alex Salmond became the comeback kid.
Well, the Indy movement of 2016 is the same as the SNP of 1979, but unlike the SNP in 1979 it won’t fall apart so we have to wait 18 years for another referendum. The Indy Movemebt is SNP, Greens, RISE, Solidarity, SSP on their own perhaps, and all the other groups. They won’t all fall apart and fall out with each other.
WILL THEY!
@John from Fife
Ive thought that myself. Basically the same as being forced to vote the same on constituency and list. Dont see why not, makes it simpler, and still proportional.
D’hondt was fun though in 1999 and 2003. After a lifetime of being trapped in the FPTP nightmare, suddenly my vote counted and it was a dilemma who to vote for, SNP, SSP or Green, because I wanted them all to do well.
It’s the media. It’s the media. IT’S THE MEDIA!
1 year of patience and stoicism won’t make a difference. 5 years won’t a difference. 20 years won’t make a difference, not if we remain the same population doped to the eyeballs on Unionist propaganda.
If the Tories are the opposition party in Holyrood, nothing changes. If Labour is the opposition party, nothing changes. Nothing changes except the tone and blue or red livery of the same Unionist propaganda churning out the same crap that keeps us all in our place.
If the SNP had an outright majority, yes they could call a referendum, but the mere convenience of having that outright majority does not raise the percentage of support for Independence. Having the referendum is not the point. Winning the referendum should be our sole objective.
Having a referendum requires 65 votes. Winning a referendum, and winning it handsomely, means changing the opinion of hundreds of thousands of people. Bickering amongst ourselves isn’t going to do that.
There are two important factors which can modify the opinion of the people. First is the growing dissatisfaction with the Union. Between the Vow, betrayals of referendum pledges, austerity cuts and Brexit, the chances are strong that dissatisfaction with the Union is going to grow. Frankly, we should have limited expectations here given the conveyor belt of obscene injustices suffered upon Scotland which we’ve all grumbled about but subsequently done nothing to change as if we were docile cattle. What makes you think Brexit will spark the revolution when the McCrone Report did not?
The second factor which can change people’s opinion of Independence is the positive case being presented to them and the appropriate arguments being effective and persuasive. This is the battleground, because every TV station, radio station and newspaper in Scotland will pedal one myth after another to dampen people’s spirits and sap their aspirations for a better life in an Independent Scotland.
If we don’t crack this problem with the media, the SNP could cure cancer, put men on Mars, discover the lost city of Atlantis, and crack the problems of nuclear fusion in one single afternoon and the six o’clock news will still run as their headline some forlorn Jackie Bird long face SNP bad / doom and gloom bullshit about our basket case of a country. “Scottish astronauts had to use a Chinese rocket to get to Mars because we can’t even build our own rockets since the sky fell in over Rosyth”. We all know the shite. Eleanor Broadford bought a sandwich in an NHS canteen and found a grub in the lettuce. Jackie Baillie was on the spot and saw the whole thing.
This black propaganda works. People believe it. They get taken in. They’re not stupid, but a lot of people don’t even know it is propaganda. People have their fears raised to such alarm it makes the status quo seem like the only sensible option. Better the devil you know eh? Many of these people don’t see anything else all day except this diet of unionist propaganda. Age isn’t a factor. True, younger folks are more likely to go online and find stuff out themselves, but it’s not an age issue, it’s all about exposure to the propaganda. Some people get it bad, for others, there is still some hope.
If we want faith in Independence to grow, we need our Scottish people to be getting a healthier diet of news, stories and cultural acknowledgement which inspires confidence in our own government and our self determination, and see that ordinary people are no longer be exposed to mind altering media monopoly they get from the BBC. With all that money, power and influence, maybe we can’t stop the BBC, but we must, absolutely must break their monopoly and give people a quality, easy to access source for the pro independence narrative.
We need belief and confidence in ourselves, and step one, we need to wean ourselves off UKOK propaganda.
Stick that in your next manifesto and I faithfully promise you have at least one vote you can count on.
@Rock –
It’s nice that your latest comment followed one from Tam Jardine. Makes a ‘compare/contrast’ demonstration much easier.
The latter is active, engaged, and positive, always asking questions and trying to see a way of improving the indy movement generally.
And then you come in, with ad hominem cobblers and reiteration of the same shit you’ve been peddling ever since you first appeared here.
FWIW, ‘Rock’, I don’t give a fuck what you think of me, The National, WOS, or anything else. Your feigned adulation of Rev Stu is embarrassingly transparent. You typify the soul-sapping negativity which has bedevilled every progressive movement since some cave-man ‘discovered’ the wheel and was told by his mother-in-law to stop being so silly.
You’re a monomaniacal bore.
Yup, the Rev did spell it out.
However Nicola and her team are well able to manage this situation.
I am embarrassed for the Greens – they knew well that the propaganda was false and in truth did wrong in standing in key constituencies they knew they had no chance with and that would lose the SNP a seat.
That being said, the SNP needs to think about how it can do a deal with them for future elections – no party can be expected to forgo completely its self- interest
We wingers need to redouble our efforts to find new means to challenge mis-information in the media.
I have been following the NI Assembly election results here, and the BBC made a point of interviewing each winner.
I note that dozens of SNP winners were not interviewed last night – but Unionists were.
So if anyone is complaining about the lack of interviewing winners in Scotland NOTE that all parties and all winning candidates were interviewed in NI by the EBC
Last post! Good analysis from Craig Murray of BBC duplicity.
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2016/05/bbc-spread-hatred/
Who’d have thought of the Tories as insurgents!
What is needed is for the three regional parliaments to come together and demand either a TV channel or news show (Parliament Hour?).
Ostensibly to inform what they are doining (“we work for you”) and including all parties, all view points.
The editors would be parliamentary staff. And the SNP could then use the “Scottish Parliamentary Hour” to publish important news, scoops, which would not be available on the BBC.
The time would have to be allocated strictly in accordance with seats. But that means that the SNP and Green time would be FAIR. Things could not be twisted by the BBC. For example, a whole story on the real facts about the Forth Road Bridge, not the lies on BBC North Britain.
Just a small beginning…. and from a small spark…. a conflagration…
[Alternatively, launch “SNP TV”. Heavens, with 116,000 members, why not launch a fundraising campaign? They could even add 10% to the membership fee and call it a…. um…. licence fee or TV tax!!]
Davidson is the most disgusting and dishonest politician in Scotland in my view.
Just how the the UK establishment like em:D
A knighthood for the creep that just lost toryboy world London the latest mayoral thing and also cooked up the giant vote tory keep Salmond the pickpocket thief posters stuck up all over England for last years GE.
From dont let the Scots steal your cash England
http://www.dng24.co.uk/salmond-cash-grab-poster-triggers-border-row/
to, arise Sir Shyster, thank you for all your services to the UKOK toryboys.
http://www.cityam.com/240560/sir-lynton-crosby-this-is-how-people-reacted-to-the-knighthood
For the record, all these Salmond’s a thief billboards were taken down the morn after Cameron won 2015.
Having shysted Scotland with their historic The Vow fraud, then EVEL, and stuff like those billboards, you can at least understand why tory boys think they can do and say now anything at all to the sweaties after yesterday.
Another quote from Patrick Harvie just a day before the election I think, was that having Greens in Holyrood would mean a diversity of making cases for Independence, and now we’ve happily / unhappily (delete as appropriate) got that diversity, it can be used to full extent.
No longer will the SNP have to try to be all things to all people to try to get Indy support, they can be themselves. The Greens can do their bit, and if RISE pick themselves up and go for a few councillors they can do their bit too, similary for Solidarity and SSP if they separate.
Indy ref 1 was about killing the stranglehold Labour had on Scotland. It worked, but to do so had to be too much to the left. It scared off right and centre.
Indy Ref 2 will now be about diversity, and Patrick Harvie was well respected during the Referendum, from both sides of the Indy divide.
I daresay this is too early yet, and bitterness and reciminations will run for another sleep cycle or two, talking of which, I’m a lucky one and got almost 3 hours sleep between midnight and 3. I’m off to my pit, once I’ve read the comments and had a good laugh 🙂
Aye it funny how some commentators question the right of voters to vote how they want. Instead of questioning a system which denies their vote equal, proportional representation. Like voters are supposed to second guess a crazy system. Small minority Parties can get totally disproportionate representation to votes cast. A million+ votes are totally disproportionately insignificant. Worse of all totally useless politicians and Press are crowing. Some Democracy.
@Breeks –
Hear hear.
Is there any trusted non-political figure we can look to as a focus for media-related concerns?
I would love to nominate Cosgrove/O’Neill but they take the BBC/PQ shilling, thereby disqualifying themselves, no matter how cogent and abrasive their observations may be. They could, I’m sure, posit all manner of Trogan Horse arguments to justify themselves, but post-modernist irony only works up to a point – if they both declare, prior to their Beattie Show stint, that they’re donating their payment to worthy causes, fair do’s, but they won’t be allowed to say why.
Prof John Robertson looks the part. That guy has gone way beyond what most professionals would dare, and done so with humour. Can we foresee a scenario where folk like him spearhead an overt campaign to boycott the BBC in Scotland, and do so with a clearly laid-out set of reasons which will resonate with the ‘ordinary’ voter?
Me no know, but me do know this – no-one who is pro-Indy and ‘creative’ should be having anything to do with the BBC in Scotland. No matter how hard it is, just don’t deal with them. If that means no Still Game, Burnistoun, Limmy, River City or whatever else, tough.
No longer will the SNP have to try to be all things to all people to try to get Indy support, they can be themselves.
Dont count on it. Greens have completion to be the vile separatists new best friends
From
Scott Arthur ?@DrScottThinks 6h6 hours ago
The SNP’s minority status will make it harder for them to undermine Holyrood’s committees. #sp16
to
Scott Arthur ?@DrScottThinks 6h6 hours ago
Nicola Sturgeon deserves some respect for opting for a minority Gov, but I can’t help contemplating a SNP / Lab coalition… #sp16
The Greens and local democracy. Is this a total sick joke. A handful of folk try to muck up the local economy and waste £Million of public money. Often funded by Landowners. Cheating lying. Building carbuncles. Refusing a £80Million Gift to pedestrianise the City centre. Against the majority wishes and the public interest.
“The first (and from our perspective, most important) thing to note is that independence is now categorically and unequivocally off the table for at least half a decade.”
Whit are ye blethering, man? Dae we live in a state o’ entropy?
Independence is coming. The question is simply WHEN. Winnie Ewing explained it best: Scottish independence is a PROCESS.
Life happens like a video — not like a series of frames or “snapshots”. We are moving towards independence with the passage of time — even at night, when we are all asleep!
It is outside events that will decide when indy comes. Not how people vote for Holyrood, WM, etc….
[I personally think independence will come in 2017, very unexpectedly, but that is another matter and just my own wee opinion…]
Greens have competition to be the vile separatists new best friends. oops
@Heed
Committees were justifiably one of the criticisms against the SNP, Tricia Marwick (SNP MSP) banged her head in vain against her own party. The Scot Gov even ignored its own committees findings (forget which one in particular).
Another on the list is the CAP farm subsidy delays. Now today, too late, the SNP are looking for an £80,000 IT guy to sort it out. Shame they didn’t do that before the election, farmers have kids who go to schools with other kids in the communities and their kids have parties, even I know farmers, and though I’m mostly out of touch these days, I know they would have suffered. The SNP don’t listen.
And then there’s the Named Person, good idea, imperfect implementation which scared a lot of people. It was just a few hours before the election Sturgeon said she might think again about it.
How many lost votes am I up to so far … perhaps a couple of hundred thousand? More? 5, 10 MSPs?
The SNP need to relearn how to listen. Now where have I heard that before? Ah yes, there’s Murphy, then Dugdale …
… but that’s listen to ordinary people, not other politicians.
OK I haven’t posted a comment for ages but I’ve got to get this off my chest and although it’s off topiic it kind of isn’t at all.The thing is of course I’m dissapointed with the election result but I’m not disheartened too much. I can’t see a way back for the unioinists.
For me and many others I’m sure, the referendum was a life changing event. I will never forget what was done to those of us who wanted our country to govern itself. I’ve always been pro Scotland but had a fairly ambivalent attitude towards the idea of Britain. I saw our future as that of being in a kind of mutual alliance with our southern neighbours. Cooperating and helping each other out where we could. I could not have been more nieve! We held out the hand of friendship and they spat in our face. I can never forget how they threatened us with economic war even though it would harm their own country in the process. For me, in my heart, I ceased to be British on 13th Feb 2013 (sermon on the pound) and I can’t go back to the person I was before.
It has changed my life. It colours everything I do. I cannot look at someone without wondering if they are a unionist or nationalist, anti or pro Scottish. I’ve distanced myself from people I know to be unionist. I avoid them. I’ve given up tv, I don’t listen to radio anymore (if I’m in a room with a radio on I feel compelled to switch it off). I don’t read their newspapers or magazines, I’ve lost all interest in British affairs. It’s become foreign to me. I no longer shop in British supermarkets. When choosing to buy something I find myself automatically checking to see where it’s made. I buy Scottish when I can and favour continental/Irish where I can’t. I’ve taken to scouring the internet for Scottish made goods for Christmas and birthday gifts.
I said immediately after we were cheated out of our independence (and I haven’t changed my opinion since) I may not have left Scotland but I’ve left the country where I used to live. I’ve emigrated without even moving house and I feel so much the better for it! As an individual, I am in many ways already independent. There must be many who feel like me.
The unionists have spent the last few years pursuing the most astonishing scorched earth policies, burning all bridges as they “progress” to who knows where? And they’re still doing it! The latest tactic seems to be to appeal to the kind of loyalist, monarchy worshipping nutters who filled George Square on 19th Sept 2014. Given that that’s a pretty small demographic it’s an utterly destructive and devsive strategy which is doomed to failure. They truely have destroyed everything.
Sorry there isn’t an SNP majority but delighted to see people of the calibre of Jeane Freeman and Emma Harper being elected.
The Nation State is soooo Last Century. West Lothian Questions require West Lothian Answers.
1/2 Million (2) list SNP votes and 1/2Million (2) list votes Labour got no representation. 1Million votes but 1/2Million Tory votes got 20 MSP’s . That is what happened, because the list votes are not totalled nationally – one total and then distributed proportionately to the regions for list MSP’s. It is a National Election not a Regional. The list votes for each Party should be totalled Nationally and then distributed Regionally for the list to work proportionately to votes cast. Instead of voters being expected to second guess a crazy system. Even voting (list) for Parties they do not support. It’s crazy.
Small Parties getting disproportionat representation to votes cast because of the Region the list votes are cast within.
True Scot News and the Freedom of Information bulletin highlighted the importance of an SNP majority and the folly of tactical voting all through the SP16 campaign to no avail.
Last night was embarrassing for Scotland. I am not saying that Scotland was a socialist uopia, far from it, but I believed Scots had decency and consideration for others. Returning so many Terrors (tories) tells me I was wrong big time.
It also shows that Yoons will do whatever it takes, even to Scotlands detriment, to secure their yoonyun. It is also worrying for the EU ref, if yoonyunists believe England are going to vote out and there is even a whiff of Indyref2 because Scotland votes in, they will vote out that I’d put money on.
Our only hope is it being tight in England and Scotlands votes being responsible for keeping them in EU, that way they might do what we obviously dont have the cahonies for and vote for English Independence.
It’s time for the SNP to drop the nice attitude that they have. They only have to look at the results of the Scottish GE and see how well thought of the Ruthless Davidson Party against a 2nd Referendum are. Especially by the EBC. OOps
One_Scot
yup, an improvement
Mr MacAlpine gives us a row
https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/3972/robin-mcalpine-there-s-nothing-for-indy-supporters-to-fear-from-sp16-unless-we-don-t-listen?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Greens are ok
“That said, they ran a much better campaign than the SNP and anyone in the SNP who wants to blame the Greens for last night’s results needs to ask themselves how it was that the SNP bled second votes (and, in Edinburgh Central, first votes) quite so easily. It is the right of the SNP who should be pressed to answer that question, not the Greens.”
Just in after my regular stint at the Hyperbaric Therapy Chamber in Dundee and definitely ready for bed.
Long night, long day.
I’ve read a few posts, but will catch up tomorrow when refreshed and my brain doesn’t feel like mush. 😉
A few thoughts.
The SNP operate in a toxic environment designed to choke the life from them. Yet here they are, hale and hearty with a third consecutive term in office.
Their achievements are remarkable by any standard, but with the whole weight of the British establishment against them, even more so.
There is now no hiding place for Davidson. She has promised to hold the SNP to account. I asked the only Tory I know what she meant by that, and he sort of, vaguely suggested it was to challenge the SNP’s policies and force Tory-friendly ones in their place.
I wished him luck with that. His party, advocating policies which result in the approval and trust ratings they ‘enjoy’ in Scotland, holding to account the most trusted government in Europe.
Davidson at FMQs, with David “I don’t care about Scotland” Cameron and co. hovering over her should be an interesting experience to say the least. Especially as she’ll be in a forum where her shouty, talking over style will not be tolerated.
And how will Pacific Quay react to their favourites being relegated?
They may try to continue hiding their London-centric bias behind the so-called Scottish Labour Party, or as others have done, jump ship and back the toxic Tories.
I’d like to see them justify that stance to the Scottish public.
It would at least be more honest if they felt compelled to remove their ‘Scottish’ mask.
One outcome from last night’s results could be that Scotland will have the salutary lesson that there is only one party that can be trusted to put her needs first and foremost, before all other considerations. It certainly isn’t the SNP’s opposition.
The election was fought on ground of the unionist’s choosing. It almost turned into a second referendum debate. If so, I take heart from the result.
Goodnight guys, and especially you Stuart. Hope you all have a good weekend.
The only way to do something about the EBC media monopoly
is to start a campaign to turn the BBC into a subscription Channel. It doesn’t have to work just the publicity would be enough.
Breeks-totally agree. It’s indoctrination. Every one of them has it seared into their brains that police Scotland the NHS and our education system is shite. I’ve seen and heard it hundreds of times despite documentary evidence to the contrary. They’ve got our people by the baws I’m afraid. Unless something is done we will be stuck at 50% fore. Just tonight union Jackie was parroting the BS questioning Swinney mercilessly over education and giving him a hard time over a second referendum yet Ruth was treated like royalty. We are fucked.
Professor Robertson gets my vote. He has shown he has the courage to stand alone but stand firm, he has the honesty to openly admit his conflicts and personal politics, and clearly has the integrity that the job would take, and he did so without a care for reward or personal advancement. He made his stand solely because it was the right thing to do no matter the cost or consequence.
I don’t want conflict with the BBC. I don’t want it fixed, I don’t want finished, I just want an alternative service and choice instead of monopoly. Professor John Robertson Director General has a good ring to it. I wouldn’t care if the BBC mended it’s ways or rotted on the vine. I wouldn’t be watching.
Sorry there isn’t an SNP majority but delighted to see people of the calibre of Jeane Freeman and Emma Harper being elected.
Is it not the case that all the SNP have to do is make 2 unionists up to presiding officer and deputy presiding officer and hey presto there’s your majority?
Farmers got interim payments, they weren’t supposed to get full payments until June. The Tories took the extra CAP payments, especially given to Scottish farmers because they receive the lowest CAP payment in the EU as part of the UK. Allocated it to wealthier farmers in the South, and the Minister stated BT when he was doing it. There is no guarantee now of EU membership.
SNP – Prescriptions, no ‘bedroom’ tax, support students, bus passes, personal care, apprenticeships and more nursery places. £100Milion to mitigate welfare cuts. Build new bridges roads and railways -on time and on budget. Invest in NHS and integrated health care. No Junior Doctors strikes. Higher council tax tiers. Protect jobs. Stand up for Scotland, .
@Cal (11.18) –
Well said there.
You’re not alone.
Yeah, we’re all political anoraks here, but we shouldn’t forget the many folk who don’t/can’t/won’t stomach mainstream political debate – they have their own take on what’s happening.
Thankfully, we’re not in a country where voting is compulsory – if only 50-odd % of the Scottish electorate voted, fair do’s – those who didn’t can’t all be dismissed as ‘non-engaged’. Plenty of folk make a conscious decision to opt-out altogether.
I sent a resignation e-mail to my SSP branch organiser earlier this evening. Haven’t had a reply yet, but it feels good, being a wee bit ‘free-er’. It’s nowhere near the freedom we’re all hoping for, but it’s a nasty painful business altogether…one wee toty baby-step at a time.
In any event, more power to ye, and please comment again, soon. This is the place where any fresh impetus will take root.
The Simply Normal Party should now set up branches across these Isles – I think that is what our everyday folk want.
Tinto Chiel says:
6 May, 2016 at 9:33 pm
You have to be in it for the long game, this independence business. We are up against the most adept, ruthless bunch of carpet-baggers since the last lot, so you either face up or fold
———-
Yeah, it’s frustrating as hell though.
I can understand those who aren’t political. They just want to eat, drink and watch the x factor on a saturday night.
But the worst thing is seeing the sheer stupidity of some so-called indy supporters online. We are our own worst enemy.
Voting against the only party that can realistically deliver another referendum in the next 5 years because of one bullshit reason or another..
1. The papers or the small parties said we would win anyway.
2. The SNP didn’t put up income tax by a penny.
3. Nicola took a photo with an endorsement from a tabloid.
4. A law saying you can’t sing sectarian songs at the football.
5. Maybe we should have a more diverse parliament first.
6. They weren’t promising independence fast enough. etc etc
It makes you want to bang your head against a wall.
At least the threat of another referendum gave Scotland some protection and some clout. It’s not going to be any easier to get a majority in 2021 either. with Britnat tactical voting trying to prevent it. Maybe something can be done with a single issue Independence Party on the list next time.
People are strange. How can Orkney and Shetland vote for a disgraced crew like the LibDems and Sky vote SNP? How can you look at a fat arse like Carbuncle and go yep, that’s my man.
Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-constituencies/S16000143
Orkney
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/scotland-constituencies/S16000135
I’m from Aberdeen West (Con), and its not in the least surprising its Con, its stuffed with wealthy hard core tories and expat English retired and always has been but Carbuncle?
@Robert McAlpine
Correct me if I’m wrong was it not something to do with the Greens sticking up posters all over the place pretending they were SNP posters telling folk to give their second votes to the Greens
Just a guess mind you
But still that’s politics as they say, so I’m sure they won’t mind when the appropriate moment comes to return that wee favour that they get Jaggy stilletos inserted into the fronts of their foreheads by the FM for questioning her honesty
I think most politicky folk know about the Greens, Liberal Democrats in pretendy student clothing
Smiley though, so that’s nice
BTW I still don’t have anything against the Greens I just don’t know what they’re for (I’ve got a bike) does that mean I’m in
The only card Ruth Davidson has in her pack now is the nasty sectarian Ulster card and that “Journalist” Peter Geoghan mentioned it again tonight and she’s already started to use it and that will be the beginning of the end for her
At least I certainly hope Scotland doesn’t fall for it
I really do, we’ve got enough nutters without importing the complete zoomers to wreck everything
Hold the SNP to account. it’s the Unionists that need to be held to account. Trident/illegal wars, banking fraud, tax evasion. Westminster is full of child molestors,fraudster, and murderers.
Thatcher illegally and secretly took the equivalent of £Billion out of Scotland. The McCrone Report. Kept secret under the Official secret Act.
The VOW, EVEL. Cameron doesn’t care.
Do Orkney/Shetland have Internet connection?
@Heedtracker –
‘People are strange’.
Kin right.
None stranger than Wullie Rennie.
Would I be right in thinking that he’ll no longer be entitled to a question during FMQ’s?
If so, some weird justice will be served.
We’ll still see him girning, as is his wont, but he’ll be in the background, seated somewhere behind the SLabbers…
Wouldn’t it be sweet if he ends-up on the seat directly behind Jabba? He’ll have to peer around her when she’s asking questions if he wants to remain in the public consciousness…
‘Hi a’body, Ah’m still here, eh?!’
It’s a mystery why the tories and Ruth in particular did so well especially after her angry and very poor performance on the last debate. I thought she was shown up for the evil nasty wee bully that she is.
The result is disappointing but no disaster. It could work out very well for the main cause, which is independence. Contrary to what Ruth Davidson says, Nicola Sturgeon has not had Indyref2 cut from under her feet.
Nicola did not run on that agenda.
So that agenda was not defeated.
My guess is that the intention of the SNP, all along, was to include Indyref2 as an explicit pledge in its manifesto for Holyrood five years from now, in 2021. They hope that by then polls will be showing regular results of 60% plus in favour of independence.
If the SNP had included Indyref2 this time, their vote, and their seats would have decreased. They would have lost the support of those who vote SNP for the sake of good governance but are opposed to independence. Such people certainly exist. They seem to have stayed loyal to the SNP today. But they don’t want another referendum so soon after the previous one, and would have cast their vote elsewhere if the SNP had committed themselves to Indyref2 in their manifesto.
In the SNP’s estimate, two things will have changed by 2021. First, support for independence will have grown by at least 10%, hopefully more. Some of those voting SNP today but not yet convinced of independence will have changed their minds by then. These ‘converted’ ones will still vote SNP in 2021.
But some current SNP voters will not ‘convert’ in this way. Remaining opposed to independence, and unable to stomach Indyref2, they will turn against the SNP in 2021, and vote elsewhere. But the SNP will be able to sustain the losses. There will be more than enough new pro-independence, pro-referendum SNP voters to replace them.
Today’s result might eventually play well in bringing the above scenario about for 2021. I am sure the SNP wanted a majority today, but that might have made it more difficult for them to sustain their popularity for the next five years.
Majority governments are rightly held solely responsible for everything they do. Including everything that flops, or is perceived to flop. And flops, or perceived flops are inevitable.
It would not be easy for an SNP majority government to maintain its popularity all the way up to 2021. It won’t be easy for an SNP minority government either. Yet …
Being a minority might even help the SNP to remain popular. They will need the help of at least one other party to get anything through the parliament. That help might be tacit (abstention) or explicit (voting with the SNP). But it will be there.
If the legislation is unpopular, or if it flops, at least the blame will be shared.
It won’t be only the SNP’s fault – some other party will have been involved as well, whether tacitly or explicitly. Giving tacit support by abstention, or explicit support by voting with them …
If, on the other hand, all the other parties combine to block whatever the SNP try to do, they will be seen as wreckers, and blamed for it.
Either way, it won’t be possible to lump all the blame for anything that goes wrong solely on the SNP.
Yet the SNP, as the party in government, will still get the credit for whatever goes right. And a lot will go right. Even if some other party gets a small share of the credit, it will largely be the SNP’s votes that made it possible, and carried it through. And it will usually be the SNP that initiated it. Everyone will see that.
Potentially, this is a win-win situation for the SNP. Being a minority government might help concentrate their minds. It could save them from making the kind of mistakes that are so easily made when a majority is guaranteed. In order to govern, they will have to keep in touch with constituencies other than their own. This is all to the good, especially in view of winning others to the cause of independence.
Ahead of today’s result the SNP strategists will have worked out all the various possible outcomes, and imagined what to do in each case. While gaining a majority was no doubt the objective, they must have known that today’s result was quite possible. They will not be fazed by it.
The outcome actually puts the SNP in an excellent position to grow support. Including, crucially, support for independence.
My guess is that the SNP’s plan, all along, has been to incorporate Indyref2 into their 2021 manfesto.
And the timing for Indyref2 won’t be so vague as it was for Indyref1 in 2011. So long as the polls in the run-up to 2021 regularly assure them that Yes will win (objective number one), they will promise the referendum for 2022. The SNP strategy, even now, I suggest, is to hold it within a year (or less) of them winning the 2021 Holyrood election.
So long as the polls are encouraging, they will even include a promise of Indyref2 in their manifesto for the Westminster elections in 2020.
The idea will be to have a mandate for Indyref2 in both parliaments (at Westminster in 2020, and Holyrood in 2021). If that happens, the UK government of the day – probably still Tory, though even if it is not – will not be able to refuse such a referendum. If they try to, they will be the laughing-stock of the democratic world.
I am a member of no political party and have nothing to do with SNP strategy, but I think this is what they have been aiming at all along. Today’s result shows their realism. They ca’ed canny on Indyref2 this time round, and the result shows they were right to do so. The 3 Combined Unionists still had slightly more votes than them (or them and the Greens combined) on both the constituency and the list votes. Not by much, but enough to show that it would be extremely dangerous for the SNP to call a referendum now.
They are not going to pledge Indyref2 until they are confident they will win it. Nicola Sturgeon has been absolutely up front about that. The Unionist parties desperately tried to goad her into being premature with it, but only because they knew it would be a major strategic mistake on her part. She was well aware of that, and they never got from her what they wanted, and tried so hard to get.
Ruth Davidson can play her ‘fantasy politics’ claiming that she defeated the SNP agenda that never was – Indyref2 in this parliament – and she can use as much violent language about it as she likes: it simply won’t wash.
Certainly not in the long run.
People eventually see through that kind of thing.
The SNP knows that the Yes movement is bigger than itself, and wider. Being a minority government will help it to resonate more easily with that wider audience, which it now has to take into account, even just to govern.
Even in Holyrood, for the next five years, it will have to reach beyond its own constituency.
Minority rule was not the immediately desired outcome, but it might still bring about the ulimately desired effect – independence.
If the aim is to hold Indyref2 by 2022, the campaign for this will start immediately after the SNP has played its part in keeping the whole of the UK in Europe in. That too is surely part of the SNP strategy for 2022. The whole of the UK remaining in Europe in 2016 will guarantee a continuation of the free movement of people and trade between an independent Scotland and all the nations of the Former UK. This will be to Scotlnd’s advantage, and everyone’s. After independence, there are to be be no barriers along Scotland’s southern border (just as there are none between Northern Ireland and the Republic).
To much alcohol to find archive is but this is great. Oh to be a toryboy now that Thatcher 2.0 is here.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/05/a-force-awakens-in-scotland-the-union-strikes-back/
From
“The Tories are the last keepers of the old Unionist religion. If that matters to you – and it does matter to a million or more Scots – they were the logical repository for your vote”
to
“The quiet people of Scotland, those folk whose voices are often hard to hear, have spoken and the message they have sent is that Scotland is not the left-wing country it sometimes likes to think it is”
The quiet people of Scotland?
Why cant toryboy world just be honest just for once in their strange creepy professional liar lives, of sneaky creepy UKOK bullshit and smear?
Because they cant handle the truth:D
The essence of the pain here is what this is going to mean on the media propaganda front. Even with the moral authority of a mathematically impossible PR SNP majority government, BBC Scotland etc continued to promote an internalized political fantasy in reporting terms that would have shamed the Iraqi Minister for Information or the Ceausescu government. However bad that was, some caution was still called for – or a half-hearted occasional display of alleged neutrality.
Sadly the reversal to a minority government is going to make the previous media settlement look worthy of a Pulitzer prize in comparison.
The hitherto ‘soft’ persuasion of the Union as the normal and desirable aspiration of all sensible Scots is going to become a new moral crusade on the back of a persistent and aggressive misrepresentation of these results.
Are the SNP slagger offers, happy now. More crowing Tories.
Hey folks, there seems to be a lot of negativity around right now, yet I personally don’t feel down. I undertand where the Rev is coming from, but on this one occasion, I do disagree.
The dream of independence is still very much alive, and make no mistake, we may not have ‘broken’ D’Hondt this time, but ‘British’ politics is changed forever – and it is ALL about Scottish independence.
If you really think all is lost might I suggest you have a look at what others are saying. The excellent James Kelly of ‘Scot Goes Pop’, has his own analysis in the international business times. Even more significantly, Paul Mason (former ch4 news economics editor), has written his own perspective on what happened in Scotland, and the permanent change in Scottish politics. Links below;
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/scottish-election-snp-has-it-all-pro-independence-majority-dream-opposition-1558718
https://medium.com/mosquito-ridge/elections-2016-the-scottish-earthquake-continues-f829864192b5#.jxgwakcvi
I would urge you to read both, as they talk a lot of sense. It is all still to play for. The dream hasn’t died, we’re just going a different route. Chin up, folks. 🙂
The outcome of the election provides opportunities for change at Holyrood and SNP supporters should not be pessimistic about the future. The march to independence will continue because it is what Scots want.
The labour Party will, within the year decide if it’s future is with “New Labour” or an Alex Rowley inspired left leaning Labour Party fully independent of Westminster controls. I am betting on the latter winning through but there might be a bit of blood letting over the next few months.
An independent Labour party will develop closer ties with the SNP and adopt a policy of allowing MSP’s a free vote if/when the question of independence is put to the Scottish electorate once again.
An SNP/Labour party working arrangement can only be good for Scotland.
The Tory Party needs to be isolated and rendered impotent.
I live in Dundee, which is in the North East Scotland region. At the 2011 Hollyrood election, the SNP won all the constituency seats but still managed to win a regional seat.
This time, they lost one constituency – but also lost their regional seat. This made me curious as to “Why?”. You would think that losing a constituency seat would make them more likely to hold on to their regional seat.
So I looked at the voting numbers. In the list below, the 2011 figures are followed by the 2016 figures.
SNP – 140,749 – 137,086
Lab – 43,893 – 38,791
Tory – 37,681 – 85,848
Lib-Dem – 18,178 – 18,444
Green – 10,407 – 15,123
My immediate thought was that people who had voted SNP in the constituency votes had “lent” their votes to the Greens in the regional vote. No, it didn’t happen – or if it did, it made no difference.
I ran the figures with the Greens and SNP staying on the same figures as 2011 and the SNP would still not have won a regional seat. The huge elephant in the room is the massive increase in the Tory vote, which won them their four regional seats.
The questions that have to be addressed are,
1. Why did the SNP vote drop, compared to 2011?
2. How did the Tories manage to more than double their vote, compared to 2011? The Labour vote fell by a few thousand. Did “left wing” Labour voters move across to vote “right wing” Tory, purely to defeat the SNP? Onnyhoo, 5,000 votes is next to nothing out of a total of 85,848.
What was going on in North East Scotland?
Andy White
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/05/06/election-night/
Election night May6
by weegingerdug
It was election night, and the big loser early on was the BBC.
@ Effijy says at 8:40 pm …. ”I have always maintained that 2021 was the soonest date we could win a referendum mark 2, as the stats on the last one showed that the older generation, in general were against change and the No Pension and No NHS threats of Better Together got to them.
In 2021, because we Scots have short life spans, will see this generation replaced by the teenagers who will use social media and find the truth and who want more control over their own lives.”
Effigy I hate to point out that as the elderly die off in Scotland they are being replaced by a constant stream, year on year, by elderly relocators from down south: 74% of whom voted No at the Referendum (about 360,000 as per 2013 stats … no doubt increased by now). Additionally thousands of our young people, average age 24, leave Scotland every year for good.
The sooner we get out of this madhouse the better.
I can relate to what you have to say Scotpine and conversely many of our Scottish soldiers / marines formerly based at Faslane were sent overseas a few weeks ago. So no voting for them.
On the point of a future Referendum well I thought that the people of Scotland had the say as to whether we hold another Referendum or not. Not Nicola or Ruth Davidson. Surely if something diabolical had to happen and over 50% of Scots, better still 60%, wanted Independence they couldn’t stop us.
Joan MacAlpine stated recently ………………………………
”To paraphrase the great Irish parliamentarian of the 19th century, Charles Stewart Parnell, no man has the right to fix the boundary of a nation… to say “Thus far shalt thou go and no further”.
”And if you prefer hard legal facts to poetry, the UN have several declarations we can turn to. The International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) and the International Covenant on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights (ICESCR) both say: “All peoples have the right of self-determination. By virtue of that right they freely determine their political status and freely pursue their economic, social and cultural development.”
”David Cameron has acknowledged Scotland as a nation – so he (and Ruth Davidson … my words) can hardly turn round and deny us the right to self-determination as defined by the UN.”
I might say: even more important than the idiocies of tactical voting, the most consistent argument to vote Green is also flawed. They are not that far to the left of SNP, specially in economics, solely being more obsessed about virtue signaling at environmental issues and identity politics. Patrick Harvie himself is a centrist career politician that would suit Labour very well. If you wanted a party to the left of SNP the only alternative was RISE.
To everyone SNP dissing D’Hondt: Would STV have brought you a majority?
Very unlikely. The voting patterns would have been entirely different but chances are it would have favoured the unionists as they could have 1-2-3 of mainstream, high profile parties.
If you’re answer is to have FPTP, just consider how undemocratic that is and remember the SNP would never gave gained a foothold at Holyrood under that system.
Either way it’s a fantasy. Stick to the reality which, lest you forget, is the second Parliament in a row to have an elected majority of pro-indy MSPs.
Try working with the reality. SNP x 2 was an attempt to give complete ownership of ‘Yes’ to the SNP and it failed, just like every other strategy to “game” the system.
Independence isn’t the SNP and the SNP could never win independence on its own. Another SNP majority would have perpetuated the illusion it could. The result was a step forward towards independence but there’s a long, winding and difficult road ahead.
So enough bellyaching and bile and start figuring out how to build a solid majority. There are no shortcuts, I’m afraid, so get ready for the long haul.
And stop bitching about the Greens and RISE and Bella – our enemies in the BBC and elsewhere would love you to pick at that wound.
@schrodingers cat
Sorry, you’re wrong. If all the Green votes on the list had gone to the SNP in all the 8 regions, the following:
Central – no change
Glasgow – 1 Green goes to 1 SNP
H&I – 1 Green goes to SNP
Lothian – 2 Green go to SNP
Mid Scot & Fife – Green goes to Lab
NE Scot – no change
South Scot – 1 Con goes to SNP
West Scot – 1 Green goes to SNP
I’m not saying that those votes would have gone SNP in reality, nor do I think it reasonable that a political party doesn’t stand candidates on the list, but that’s the maths.
That Sick Feeling
The morning of the 6th was IR1 all over again. Once again, my fellow Scots were suckered by the media. Last time, Project Fear. This time, Project Cheer.
My wife literally provoked an argument as she didn’t see the point in walking along to the voting station. Apparently, we had it in the bag.
The common thread – the media. And ‘The National’ does not emerge with clean hands.
This site is and it’s author have produced some of the most devastating critiques of the biased media and self preserving establishment bodies that I have ever read and long may it continue. This is the reason I have saw fit to modestly contribute what I can to the crowd funding initiatives it has launched since and beyond the referendum. I look forward to continuing this for as long as is needed until Scotland becomes a free thinking, independent, modern nation of the world. The tone of today’s article however and several of the supporting comments have for the first time made me seriously question my allegiance to this site. My commitment to Scottish Independence is unwavering. My commitment to everything the author of this site says is not.
Cal at 1118pm,
You may have not posted often, but your comment is bang on the money. I’d urge others to read it. Here is a small section of it for others to see;
“For me, in my heart, I ceased to be British on 13th Feb 2013 (sermon on the pound) and I can’t go back to the person I was before.
It has changed my life. It colours everything I do. I cannot look at someone without wondering if they are a unionist or nationalist, anti or pro Scottish. I’ve distanced myself from people I know to be unionist. I avoid them. I’ve given up tv, I don’t listen to radio anymore (if I’m in a room with a radio on I feel compelled to switch it off). I don’t read their newspapers or magazines, I’ve lost all interest in British affairs. It’s become foreign to me. I no longer shop in British supermarkets. When choosing to buy something I find myself automatically checking to see where it’s made. I buy Scottish when I can and favour continental/Irish where I can’t. I’ve taken to scouring the internet for Scottish made goods for Christmas and birthday gifts.
I said immediately after we were cheated out of our independence (and I haven’t changed my opinion since) I may not have left Scotland but I’ve left the country where I used to live. I’ve emigrated without even moving house and I feel so much the better for it! As an individual, I am in many ways already independent. There must be many who feel like me. “
[MY BOLDING]
Cal, you are quite right, there are many, many others who feel like you. There is no way back for Scotland. It is all to play for.
Gary45% says:
6 May, 2016 at 10:30 pm
Scotspine@8.57
Spot on, (Thinking the same) you forgot to mention the retirement complexes that are filling up with naysaying yoons, quite happy to move to Scotland and get free prescriptions etc. but have absolutely no interest in Scottish Independence.
Happy with their lot in Scotchland but oblivious to the solid work the SNP are doing.
As said on previous posts the SNP should give Scotland a real taste of what Westminster policies are doing to the country, the fu*kers voted Tory give them Tory policies.
John Swinney is a legend.
Always SNP “You know it makes sense”
Ruby replies
That would be fun! They could have different policies for different constituences. Central Edinburgh for example could pay for their prescription, university tuition, etc.
I bet if the SNP proposed a Tory policy the Tories would vote against it.
The thing about the Tory vote was that voters weren’t voting for their preferred government they were voting for the opposition which is totally weird.
@Dr Ew
I personally have no complaints about the second vote: nobody can interfere with an individual’s right to vote as they wish.
I do have an issue however with political groups and sections of the media that promoted – in a PR election – a SNP majority as a foregone conclusion.I think that may have led to a lesser turnout in constituencies where only a few hundred votes made the difference.
At least that proposition will never be taken seriously again.
Dr Ew says:
7 May, 2016 at 12:45 am
To everyone SNP dissing D’Hondt: Would STV have brought you a majority?
So what’s the plan Dr EW, what are the Green king makers going to do with their hard earned Holyrood power?
Its not king maker is it, its nation maker.
So what to do now, for the Green’s all new taking YES ownership of off the SNP and using it to do what?
Dont worry Dr Ew, I dont expect an answer.
@schrodingers cat
e.g. Glasgow
Lab 59,151, Con 29,533, Grn 23,398, SNP 111,101
Add SNP + Grn = 134,499 divide by 9 + 1 = 13,449
goes
Lab 59,151 divisor 2 leaves 29,575
Lab 29,575 divisor 3 leaves 19,717
Con 29,533 divisor 2 leaves 14,766
Lab 18,717 divisor 4 leaves 14,788
Con 14,766 divisor 3 leaves 9,844
Lab 14,788 divisor 5 leaves 11,830
SNP 13,499
It’s not over tìll it’s over.
And believe you me.
It’s not over.
Fall back-regroup.
Funny enough Ruby
I was thinking that , even if Dundee and Glasgow , could declare UDI , and go off independently , they could be given a per head share of Scotland’s natural resources , then let the progressive SNP polices do their work and transform them into prosperous modern cities .
failing that
If for example Scotland was broken up and Moray and the North East went of on their own , as its better for progressive politics and they could treat their poor and vulnerable better .
Would you support it ?
Failing that if Scotland was independent and got joined constitutionally with another country like Greenland , the other country brought massive wealth from renewable and natural resources into the exchequers , meaning that the GDP , per head of every Scot , would be doubled , just think of that poor and disabled people in Scotland getting 35k a year , cheap house . free fuel .
But the Greenlanders wanted a name change , the new country would be Scotgreeneia , You could still call yourself Scottish off course , but that’s up to you , you would have a Scotgreenia passport and the football team you would cheers would be Scotgreenia
Scotland as an entity would be a figment of history
Would you do it to help your fellow citizens have a better life ?
@thomaspotter2014
Spiders. Webs. No one that loves this country is giving up.
But the gloves are now off. Its Independence or the Union. There’s no substantial Home Rule or Federalism option. In a way, its all a lot simpler, and the end game is now.
All I gotta say is
I LOVE SCOTLAND.
Not over till it’s over.
OK, and I’m really sad and need to get a life. I’ve redone the results as though every single SNP voter voted Green on the list instead of SNP. It gives the result of course that the SNP would have 59 MSPs rather than 63 as they’d get 0 on the list.
So to end the night and a long long day and a bit of a total wet dream for the Green Party, here’s what happens.
On the List, the Greeens get 37, Lab 10, Con 9. Giving the alternate universe overall result of:
SNP 59
Green 37
Con 16
Lab 13
Lib 4
I have a strange feeling the Electoral Commission would commit Harry Kirry who wouldn’t be happy at all.
@heedtracker
I have answers. Firstly, I never said the Greens had “taken ownership” of Yes; my point is certain sections of the SNP, and not least the purists who dominate this site, have attempted to annexe Yes all to themselves – and it failed. It was always a narrow, shallow strategy and it will NEVER secure independence.
Greens will hold the SNP on fracking and TTIP, two areas where they are at best wishy-washy and at worst disingenuous. We’ll push you harder on land reform too because we won’t be trying to appease Fergus the Fracker and the big landowners as has been the SNP approach to date. And, yes, we will advance alternative economic strategies to focus on renewable energy under public control and developing a healthier Scotland via policies on transport, schools and equalities. And we’ll find lots of common ground there too, because we’ll work in a constructive way. As will Nicola, John and plenty of others.
We’ll push you to decentralise and devolve more power to the people of Scotland because we trust them to revel in the responsibility and root democratic accountability in local communities. We also believe that’s the best way to build a consensus for independence – and that’s what we’ll be doing too, reaching parts you cannot.
We’ll be doing lots more to change the discourse and the agenda, including actually engaging with people to create a written constitution for Scotland. And we’ll promote alternatives to retaining the UK pound post-independence as we did in 2014 because we don’t want our economic choices tethered to the City of London and because we think our own currency would make for a more successful and independent Scotland.
But just you keep yelling “SNP x 2” till you’re blue in the face. Cos that’ll work.
Papko
It’s a bit late to give you proposal a lot of thought. I wouldn’t mind giving up my British passport for a Scotgreeneia passport but I’m a bit worried about cheering for a football team. Would that compulsory? 🙂
You lot were killing my Mellon, so I went off to do a bit of gardening, whilst I as out the front a wee dug decided my dirty jeans were the sexiest thing he had ever seen so went for my leg big style.
Anyhow reading the posts tonight I am struck by the fantastic points made, actually I don’t want say this but you lot forget you are fighting a war, after the referendum you showed that you knew the difference between losing a battle and the whole campaign,
What Ruth was saying tonight when she claims the referendum is off for the lifetime of the parliament, is she can’t control it, so she advanced her position to claim the ground. We can either advance head on, and fall into her trap, or create a new front, out flank her, take the initiative and strike at her core supporters, landed gentry. Yes land reform, the Torys will go apeshit the greens will love it, due to Andy, and the new Tory support will see what drives the Torys and it isn’t working class protestants. It’s a win win for the SNP and a humiliating defeat for the Torys. Labour will be out of it, they will not get involved. If they support the Torys on protecting landed estates, it’s a catastrophe , if they support the greens then it’s pro independence.
Start the battle you can win, that you’re enemy has to come to you to fight on your ground on your strengths ok it’s the greens, but a bit of investment at the start could pay dividends later. Oh and as for the comments I don’t trust the greens, what do you want, this is politics, I don’t even trust the SNP, I don’t even trust the Rev, I trust nobody. But I will use everybody and everything to complete the mission.
And before I forget, the wee toy dog who tried to master-bate on my leg Andy D was his name, you ever seen ring of bright water, well I have a shovel, and you could be mistaken for a rat!
What surprised me was the first result to be announced, Shetland &, to be honest, was taken aback. I thought the people of Shetland would be more aware. Here they are voting for a gentleman farmer whose family own large chunks of Shetland & helping him to purchase a mansion in Edinburgh Morningside? to the tune of almost £1000 per month.
Nose in thetrough!!! Goodness gracious me.
as Nietzsche said,
“That which does not kill us, makes us stronger.”
we now know that anyone that voted fricken green wants windfricken mills not a free Scotland,
I understand yoons voting for Tory or Lib Dead,that`s their thing,
but supposed Scottish Nationalists voting any thing but SNP is fricken sick.
@Dr Ew
I hereby nominate you for a Nobel Peace Prize.
@Andrew Mclean
What he said.
Cheers.
Scot, Nietzsche was a wanker.
The greens were a valuable asset to yes, today I heard a young green MSP talk passionately about Scottish independence. It’s bridge building time. Anyhow I need help on the conversation to the 2015 regs, the greens will be great!
Scot Finlayson@1.46am,
Are you saying the Greens are tilting at Windmills? lol.
Stephen.
@Andrew Mclean
it is not about voting for the greens,if that is your thing
like Stu opinioned ,vote what you want ,but at least know the consequences,
i want Independence so we can have green policies,
but voting green aint gonna get us Independence so we aint gonna get green policies,
as Nietzsche said,`do not vote fricken SNP/Green`
yep, you are correct about glasgow
i havent checked west again but all the others you mentioned are the same as I posted
thing is dads, i have been crunching the numbers and things dont seem to add up
we all expected a drop from the 71% turnout at the ge but the snp dropped 400,000 !!! thats a third of our vote down?
even labour dropped by a third
on the like for like comparable constituencies, shetland and the fife regions, which match almost exactly holyrood and the ge constituencies, in the libdem seats, the unionists voted tactically for the lib dems, the snp lost a third of their votes
in the snp held traditional slab seats, I see virtually no move ment from slab 2 the tories, dunfermline (cowdenbeath & kirkcaldy, slab increased their vote)
the tories increased their vote by 65K over the whole of scotland and may have picked up slab and libdem votes in tactical southern seats, and perhaps a few disgruntled slab voters in glasgow but i think they just succeeded in getting their vote out at more or less the same level as 2015.
I dont see this MASSIVE swing from slab to the tories
see below
btw, i did these list vote calcs, not because i thought that it was possible for all oips to vote snp or indeed necessary. only to show how few seats on the list were actually involved.
As I suggested, had people voted tactically in south and highlands (snp1&2) and the SG/rise/solid NOT stood candidates in these 2 regions, we would have got the last 2 msps required for a majority, even against a 35% fall in our constituency vote.
academic now I suppose, but the real reason we are where we are is due to the fall in our over all numbers.
turnout from 2015 ge 71%
snp 1,454,436
slab 707,147
tory 434,097
lib 219,675
yoons 1,364,919
turnout from 2016 he
snp 1,059,897
lab 514,261
tory 501,844
lib 178,238
yoons 1,194,343
yoons down 150k from ge result
snp down 400k from ge result
Scot,
I was, am now and as long as they have the best interests of my country foremost, SNP X 2
However you misunderstand the electorate, some are sold on the idea you can have your cake and eat it, what the unionists did was sell the one party state, this gave them the opening to split the vote.
It wasn’t an accident, it was planning. And a compliant press delivered the blow. You can’t blame the greens they have as much right as anyone to advance their positions.
My point was that election was yesterday, today look for what advantage we can gleam. Bridge building time, that’s what I said.
The elephant in the room is,
the 400,000 English that have immigrated to Scotland,
mostly to Edinburgh ,Aberdeen,Dumfries,Orkney,Shetland,
they will never vote `for` Scotland.
I wrote this earlier on the Guardian and I stick by it.
At least now the battle lines have been drawn.
Scottish self determination v the dying breath of Empire.
That’s labour out the way so lets call a spade a spade.
What surprises me (assuming the secretively held tinfoil hat that says the tories are at it is off) (I mean 2015 and this?) is that the working class and indeed the underclass are so shackled to historical Scottish Protestantism that they would vote against their own interests to uphold a union that has not served them in any meaningful way across so many constituencies in Scotland over so many years. It defies belief.
Ruth has played a dangerous game in Scotland and may have to account for that later with the Order, the Lodge and other unsavoury characters that have permeated Scotland’s present, it’s past and quite possibly – it’s future. That vote will come at a price.
Whilst they live in the past, Scotland lives in the present and we will determine our own future. The Yoon media has thrown everything at Scotland’s electorate yet still the SNP are dominant in Holyrood and Westminster. They are our representatives, accept it and move on.
If independence was not certain before it is now.
Take that to the bank (As they say in Murica) 🙂
The way I see it, is that Labour’s only escape route from terminal decline now is full federalism.
The Independence and Unionist positions have been filled.
Dr Ew: “my point is certain sections of the SNP, and not least the purists who dominate this site, have attempted to annexe Yes all to themselves – and it failed”
This is waffle masquerading as 20/20 hindsight.
And please don’t refer me to another of your posts when it’s pertinently clear what you saying on the one I answer.
“Certain sections of the SNP”? What sections? Who, exactly?
“Appease” which landowner?
What are you trying to say without being able to justify it? One of the richest men in Scotland got the Supreme Court to swing a verdict back in his favour. We have to find ways around that.
And by the way, no one in their right mind thinks the Greens are electable. They are not a political party. Who in hell’s name will send Patrick to negotiate with Donald Trump?
*Nervously backs out of room*
GREENS BAD?
Aye we’ve a job on our hands to convince our fellow Scots that the UK is bad for your health. One of the most depressing exchanges is when you point across the North Sea to Norway and say “that could be us” to which the yoonbot replies “am no paying seeven fuckin poun for a pint”…
Grouse Beater @ 5.46
Nailed it..off to work now with a Green colleague who thinks Trams in Edinburgh are good,we should pay more tax,oil is way bad and the new Forth crossing a “vanity project”.
She also thinks independence could be a good thing long term but a distraction just now as the planet is somehow boiling up.Patrick is a genius in micro economics and she has her own allotment.
She hates Alex Salmond and doesn’t understand Nicola Sturgeon but used to vote Labour.
@seajams
‘GREENS BAD?’
Nope and neither are the SNP.
The real bad guys will be sitting across the chamber in opposition seats.
Now more than ever, that opposition will seek to drive wedges into and perceived crack or rift in the independence movement. Some folks have just forgotten that the vote was yesterday and tomorrow is yet to happen. Today is what we have and working WITH what’s right in front of us is ALL that matters.
O/T links
Blimey this thread is depressing.
http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/7-ways-the-scottish-election-result-is-good-for-the-independence-movement/
http://www.glasgowlive.co.uk/news/glasgow-news/richard-walker-time-continues-run-11296640
https://medium.com/mosquito-ridge/elections-2016-the-scottish-earthquake-continues
Just in case you missed this
https://twitter.com/SNPdavid/status/728562244448038912
O/T links
http://www.disabilitynewsservice.com/scottish-police-assessing-possible-investigation-into-ids-and-grayling/
Labour councillor who thought he had lost re-elected after votes found ‘under Tory pile’
http://archive.is/Xzv4d
http://www.thecanary.co/2016/05/06/the-abysmal-local-elections-coverage-shows-the-bbc-has-moved-beyond-bias-to-pure-propaganda/
John Doe’s manifesto
http://panamapapers.sueddeutsche.de/articles/572c897a5632a39742ed34ef/
O/T links
https://shadowproof.com/2016/05/06/jeremy-scahill-outlines-obama-made-assassination-formal-us-policy/
https://www.sott.net/article/317798-Turkish-journalists-convicted-for-leaking-documents-showing-Turkey-was-arming-Syrian-terrorists
http://libertyblitzkrieg.com/2016/05/05/german-study-proves-it-95-of-greek-bailout-money-went-to-the-banks
http://www.thecanary.co/2016/05/06/everyone-distracted-elections-cameron-moves-take-bbc/
The next test of public opinion is the council elections.
The SNP have won 95% of all seats up for grabs in the last couple of years.
It’s about time the rug was pulled out from under the Labour incumbents in places like Glasgow and Aberdeen. Without this base level of support, the entire Labour movement will wither and die.
The SNP would be the natural inheritors of that support. Whilst any Tory support would polarise the debate even further.
Oops I forgot to post this one by James Kelly scotgoespop
Scottish-election-snp-has-it-all-pro-independence-majority-dream-opposition
http://archive.is/hYcIk
That’s all folks, taking a break for a while.
Let’s keep the head, SNP in power with the Tories as the main opposition; now there’s fertile ground for growing the independence momentum.
@ A McLean
That was what I was thinking by the end of yesterday. After I researched the 6 Greens. They are yessers too. And radical land reform will impact most on rural areas. Places where the holiday homes are for instance.
Win win. Then win!
Well done Nana 🙂
I can understand the gripe at being 2 seats and a few hundred votes short from an overall SNP majority, but what an amazing fantastic achievement getting over a million votes, taking Glasgow (both MP’s and FPTP SNP MSP’s)… bring on the Cooncil elections 2017 🙂
…and doing it in a 3rd term.
I think the amazing result of GE15 had some folk expecting this every time… but heck, we are still winning and maybe this is a little reminder to some that do not remember consistantly polling 10% and getting seats in the numbers of the current Greens or LibDems.
Onwards and upwards… we won… and convincingly painted Scotland yellow… again. 🙂
What Cal says at 11:18.
I’d only add that I actually feel physically revolted now by the sight of the Union flag.
Another thing I wanted to add, is that Glasgow is now officially SNP Heartland… along I suspect, with the other Yes Cities of course. 🙂
I did no campaigning and no SNP poster in my window… hardly discussed the election and saw little of anyone else doing so… but it was still a clean sweep… an easy clean sweep. 😀
@ Briandoonthetoon 12.36 – strange result in North East region. A Steward’s Inquiry is called for.
Glamaig thought that people who voted LibDem in 2007, abstained in 2011 then voted Tory in 2016.
Difficult to compare 2007 as the constituency boundaries changed in 2011.
BDtt @12.36,
‘What was going on in North East Scotland?’
Much the same as Highland. (see my post@ 2.36pm).
Rounding roughly to 1,000s, In Highland:
SNP Lost 3,000
Lab lost 3,000
Grn gained 6,000
Ukip gained 2,000
LD gained 5,000
but the elephant in the room is the Conservatives
more than doubled their vote from 20,000 to nearly 45,000!
In 2011, SNP vote got 3 list seats and was less than 1,000 short of the 4th. This time only 1 with 3,000 less votes.
Where have all these ‘new’ tory votes come from?
Stu i have read several reports including one fro craig murray that both votes SNP was a waste. I gave both mine to SNP cos thats who i vote for. But I have tried to find out how many more or less seats we would have got if everyone who voted SNP in the first ballot also gave their second vote SNP CAN YOU HELP
Basically speaking the media got SNP voters complacent with “SNP majority guaranteed”, and got Conservative voters out (and convert Labour) with “the election is boring, the only battle is for 2nd place”.
And Ruth Davidson ran a vey good campaign, excellent in fact, including her bareback on a buffalo. People like that sort of daft thing, as long as they’re not Indy supporters. Makes her “one of us”, doing daft stuff on the Balearics. And certainly gets her name known to the non-political geek.
I think Sturgeon came across to people as presidential, and that press image of her with 1,000 supporters holding pictures of her face was just spooky, even I felt disturbed. The election should not have been about her, and the cult of Sturgeon, it should have been about the SNP and Scotland.
Turnout? Not as much as a General Election, never was, never is, but more than HE 2011. Unfortunately more for the Tories than the SNP.
“Brothers! Sisters! Let us not fight amongst ourselves! Let us unite against the real enemy… ”
“The Judean People’s Front!?!”
“No – The GREENS!!!!”
Oh aye, and Willie and his rutting pigs. That was probably staged too, a quick spray of estrus hormones or something on the back of the other one.