You’ve bravely waded through a 3500-word book review already this morning, so let’s give you something a little more bite-sized to digest.
This one could be a game-changer, folks. Brace yourselves.
We talk often of the “swarm of wasps” approach to debate that’s the main strategy of the No campaign. The guiding principle of it is to throw out so many dubious assertions, straw men and red herrings, all at once, that it’s all but impossible for your opponent to effectively counter all the different thrusts of the attack, like trying to swat wasps with a broken tennis racquet.
To see how it works, let’s take a look at the Herald’s front page splash today.
Since this’ll be the hot subject of the day, you might as well see it for yourself.
In an extraordinary outburst on TV last night, “Better Together” campaign chairman Alistair Darling accused Alex Salmond of exaggerating the amount of extractable oil in the Scottish sector of the North Sea by 1,200%.
The former Chancellor (who we learned a few weeks ago thinks the population of Scotland is six million, creating an impressive 705,000 imaginary Scots) suggested that rather than the 24 billion barrels currently estimated by the oil industry – and commonly cited by the UK government – there were in fact just 2 billion barrels left.
As BT are a tad wobbly with numbers, let’s do a quick bit of arithmetic on that.
In the whole of 2012, Wings Over Scotland was visited by 141,012 unique users, who made just under 2.6 million pageviews. In 2013 so far, we’ve reached 285,581 unique users who between them racked up over 6.6m pageviews.
Just wait until we really get started.
ComRes for ITV News, 20 July 2013:
An alert reader today pointed us towards internet traffic analysis site Alexa.com, and in particular its statistics for the Yes and No campaigns’ official websites. There was an interesting quirk (or at least one that might pass for interesting in the silly season).
Can you spot it?
We have a bit more respect for Professor Brian Ashcroft than most of the No camp’s scaremongers (indeed, we’ve even run an article of his on Wings Over Scotland), so we looked with interest at the latest entry on his blog yesterday, a piece with the fairly self-explanatory title of “Has Scotland already spent its oil fund?”
It purports to examine what Scotland’s financial position would have been had it been independent for the last 32 years, in response to a Scottish Government document (which was backed up by fullfact.org) showing that Scotland had been a large net contributor to the UK over the period, but arrives at a bizarrely tangential conclusion.
Oh dear, here we go again. The latest Scotsman/SoS poll yesterday afternoon:
And here it is this morning:
We’ve explored the “Kinnock Factor” previously on this site, but some numbers from the latest YouGov weekly polling surprised even us today. Labour’s lead over the midterm Conservative-led government is still falling – to just 6% this time – and Ed Miliband’s personal ratings are even worse than David Cameron’s, but that wasn’t it.
You’ll probably want to click on that image to enlarge it.
Seasoned readers will recall that on occasion we’ve pondered the mystery that is the membership of the itself-enigmatic entity sometimes called “Scottish Labour”.
Establishing how many members the party actually has is a puzzle that has eluded the best and brightest in Scottish journalism for years, but thanks to a tip from an alert commenter Wings Over Scotland may be able to make the breakthrough today.
A recurring source of amusement for the independence camp is the weekly reader poll in Scotland On Sunday. Time and again the surveys fall victim to deeply-implausible sudden surges in backing for the Unionist option, often in the middle of the night and usually after Yes supporters have drawn attention to less favourable standings.
(The paper’s deputy editor Kenny Farquharson once memorably tried to explain away 25,000 overnight votes – in a poll which had attracted about a tenth that many* in the entire preceding week – as having come from American and Canadian readers, all having inexplicably decided to vote at once on the same day.)
A fairly typical example of the phenomenon, from back in April, can be seen here, but the No campaign’s IT black-ops department appears to have suffered from a bit of an itchy trigger finger this morning and pushed the bounds of credibility a little too far.
Wings Over Scotland is a (mainly) Scottish political media digest and monitor, which also offers its own commentary. (More)
