You win a historic third election with a second massive landslide, getting more than twice as many seats as your nearest challenger – the first time such a thing has ever happened in a Holyrood election – on the back of what’s (self-evidently) by and large a very popular policy programme and record, and before you’ve even taken your seats in the chamber all the parties you just thrashed out of sight line up to explain how you’ve been doing everything wrong.
And as alliances go, they don’t get much less holy.
We’re supposed to be taking a few days off, but it’s been tipping it down outside for 36 solid hours, so when an alert reader emailed us a question relating to this article from Monday, we couldn’t help but go and research it just to pass some time.
They’d asked how many of the Tory MSPs elected last Thursday had been rejected by the voters of a constituency seat on the same day, and we were startled by the answer – of the 24 Conservative members of the Scottish Parliament elected on the list last week, every single one was also a failed constituency candidate.
In amongst a torrent of pretty mad analysis of the election result at the weekend, we noticed the most insane reason yet suggested for the loss of the SNP’s majority:
The co-founder of a much-lauded but little-read pro-independence website asserted that the SNP were cruising to victory until the Nats got the backing of the Scottish Sun and Nicola Sturgeon was pictured posing with the front cover endorsing her party.
The whole litany of gaping flaws in that argument is something the Yes movement has needed to talk about for some considerable time now. So let’s bite the bullet and do it.
A few weeks ago we rather cruelly highlighted an old post from Kezia Dugdale’s blog in which she bitterly bemoaned the practice of candidates who’d been rejected by voters in constituency seats still being able to get into Parliament via the “back door” of the regional lists.
The social-media reaction to this post yesterday was astonishing. Merely pointing out calmly and quietly that our warnings before the election had been entirely vindicated, and that everyone else’s unequivocal assertions of a guaranteed SNP majority had been the rubbish we always said they were, unleashed a torrent of abuse equal to any we’ve ever endured in the last four and a half years – distinguished only by the fact that so much of this one came from supposed Yes supporters.
But no amount of screaming and shouting will change the facts. Let’s look at them.
The first (and from our perspective, most important) thing to note is that independence is now categorically and unequivocally off the table for at least half a decade.
The failure of the SNP to secure another Holyrood majority last night (for the want of just 360 votes) combined with the Greens’ weasel-worded opposition to a second referendum – and make no mistake, opposition is what it is – will ensure that even if the rUK votes to leave the EU and Scotland votes overwhelmingly to stay in, there will be no indyref before the next Holyrood election in 2021.
Whatever else happens, you can take that to the bank.
Saffron Robe on Shield Of The Phantom: “If a judgement is selective rather than objective, it ceases to be a judgement of law and becomes merely an…” Jan 29, 20:58
Lorna Campbell on Shield Of The Phantom: “Aidan: the Treaty could not have been spent on the accession of the two states into the one state, the…” Jan 29, 20:54
Cynicus on Shield Of The Phantom: “I have just encountered an “AI detector “ online: it is called justdone.com. I am afraid I cannot recommend it…” Jan 29, 20:32
Aidan on Shield Of The Phantom: “Do please tell us all about this sea power Northcode, is there any large-output tidal energy project anywhere in Scotland…” Jan 29, 19:46
Cynicus on Shield Of The Phantom: ““..the new evidence aqq A” ====== Sorry for this gibberish in my long post above. The phrase should read, “the…” Jan 29, 19:37
Northcode on Shield Of The Phantom: ““Scotland already possesses key competitive advantages in marine energy, including abundant natural resources and dedicated enterprise agencies. The country’s marine…” Jan 29, 18:50
sam on Shield Of The Phantom: “Gaels and Picts combined to face the threat of the Vikings. Over time their cultures merged.” Jan 29, 18:42
Cynicus on Shield Of The Phantom: “Lorna Campbell says: 29 January, 2026 at 2:12 pm “AI spews out according to that which you put in, Cynicus.…” Jan 29, 18:39
sam on Shield Of The Phantom: “It is not 25% of the Scottish population, It is a turnout of at least 50% of those registered to…” Jan 29, 18:36
Hatey McHateface on Shield Of The Phantom: “So you don’t even grant them the basic courtesy of calling our ancestors by their own names? Preferring to use…” Jan 29, 18:35
Northcode on Shield Of The Phantom: ““In summary, Scotland’s marine energy resources have the potential to significantly contribute to its energy output, aligning closely with the…” Jan 29, 18:34
Northcode on Shield Of The Phantom: ““Indeed so, these are immense energy surpluses that would be earning Scots around £100 billion a year…” Yes, Alf. The…” Jan 29, 18:27
Hatey McHateface on Shield Of The Phantom: “Some good points made by David Davis and yourself, factchecker. My view is that if people can’t be arsed to…” Jan 29, 18:26
Northcode on Shield Of The Phantom: “Long before the arrival of The Christ the sixteen tribes held sway across the northern lands. So effective were their…” Jan 29, 18:16
agentx on Shield Of The Phantom: “@ Saffron Robe – interesting – thanks.” Jan 29, 18:15
factchecker on Shield Of The Phantom: ““Our view is that a reasonable level for the threshold that determines a settled will is that at least half…” Jan 29, 18:00
Hatey McHateface on Shield Of The Phantom: “Oh, give it a rest, Alf. If Scotland has a renewable leccy surplus on one of those days when the…” Jan 29, 17:15
sam on Shield Of The Phantom: “5 Regional Assemblies During the second reading of the Regional Assemblies (Preparations) Bill 2002-03 the Conservative spokesman, David Davis, expressed…” Jan 29, 16:06
factchecker on Shield Of The Phantom: “The 2015 election was the one when Nicola Sturgeon specifically stated that a vote for the SNP was not a…” Jan 29, 15:16
Aidan on Shield Of The Phantom: “@Alf – so in a future independent Scotland electricity bills would amount to around 33% of GDP? Sounds like a…” Jan 29, 14:19
Aidan on Shield Of The Phantom: “Okay so yet more lying, I honestly don’t know what you seek to gain out of saying things that are…” Jan 29, 14:16
Lorna Campbell on Shield Of The Phantom: “That may be true, but, if you know anything about AI, it will try to find the answers to that…” Jan 29, 14:12
Hatey McHateface on Shield Of The Phantom: “@Lorna Globalisation has worked on the most stupendously successful scale for the Chinese. Just as it is currently working unbelievably…” Jan 29, 14:02
Alf Baird on Shield Of The Phantom: ““Are they acting in the interests of Scotland” If the SNP leadership were acting in the interest of Scots we…” Jan 29, 14:02
Alf Baird on Shield Of The Phantom: ““Wind power is so abundant in Scotland” Indeed so, these are immense energy surpluses that would be earning Scots around…” Jan 29, 13:58
Hatey McHateface on Shield Of The Phantom: “Gonna level with you, Confused, these days I really miss your antisemitism. What I’d love to know is why you’ve…” Jan 29, 13:54
Peter McAvoy on Shield Of The Phantom: “If John Swinney said we can have among the cheapest power in Europe why doesn’t he do it and say…” Jan 29, 13:48
Lorna Campbell on Shield Of The Phantom: “Confused: good comment. No public utility should be outwith state control for precisely the reasons you have listed. Also, the…” Jan 29, 13:46
Hatey McHateface on Shield Of The Phantom: “Sure, Willie. Wind power is so abundant in Scotland they’re building all the turbines dozens of miles out to sea.…” Jan 29, 13:35
Hatey McHateface on Shield Of The Phantom: “Bit of an obsession there, Confused. I’m guessing they wouldn’t “let you in”.” Jan 29, 13:26
