What happened and what happens next
The social-media reaction to this post yesterday was astonishing. Merely pointing out calmly and quietly that our warnings before the election had been entirely vindicated, and that everyone else’s unequivocal assertions of a guaranteed SNP majority had been the rubbish we always said they were, unleashed a torrent of abuse equal to any we’ve ever endured in the last four and a half years – distinguished only by the fact that so much of this one came from supposed Yes supporters.
But no amount of screaming and shouting will change the facts. Let’s look at them.
Firstly it should be noted that the electoral system worked exactly as it was designed to. In 2011 the SNP broke it by securing a majority in Parliament without a majority of the popular vote. This time that was prevented – the collective democratic will of the Scottish electorate was correctly represented and implemented, which is a good thing.
But what does it mean from the perspectives of different parties and different issues? The answer to that question is complex, so let’s break it down.
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THE SNP
In almost every sense, the election result is brilliant news for Nicola Sturgeon’s party. They increased their vote to record levels despite having been in power for nine years (becoming the first party to ever get a million votes in a Holyrood election), and while a mainly right-wing media will focus on the loss of its majority and a tiny handful of upsets in individual seats, from the administrative point of view of government it’ll be almost entirely “business as usual” for the Nats.
It’ll suit the SNP very well indeed to be set primarily against the Tories at Holyrood. It’s a far better look for a centre-left social democratic party to be opposed to/by the Conservatives than by an ostensibly left-wing, working-class one. Now they’ll be seen resisting calls to pull to the right, rather than resisting calls to pull the left, and their grassroots support will be much more comfortable with that.
In terms of getting legislation passed, there ought to be little difficulty. With as diverse and divided an opposition as Holyrood has seen for many years, the two votes the SNP need to get a bill through should be easily found from somewhere or another.
Let’s say, for example, that the new Scottish Government wanted to allow fracking on a limited basis. (We have no reason to believe that they do, we’re just illustrating a point.) Any such proposal would be backed by the Tories, delivering almost 100 votes in the chamber and a crushing majority.
Conversely, let’s say they wanted to hike the top rate of income tax. Labour and the Greens would have little choice other than to support them, and bingo, there’s another whopping landslide vote in the bag.
The only issues on which the SNP might meet united resistance and suffer defeats are things like the Offensive Behaviour (Football) Act, which as we know is massively supported by the electorate. If a combined move from Labour, the Tories, the Lib Dems and the Greens were to bring about its abolition, it’s the opposition parties who’d feel the backlash for it.
(And we doubt the SNP would consider it a troubling loss anyway. The Act was largely a worthwhile gesture rather than a practical measure, and hasn’t stopped bigoted fans singing sectarian songs in large numbers.)
And of course, being a minority also provides a handy get-out excuse for manifesto commitments you can’t or don’t really want to implement.
The SNP ran a much smaller minority government from 2007-11, relying on support from various parties on an issue-by-issue basis, including the Tories. It did them no damage at all, and in 2011 they were returned with almost a 50% increase in their vote share. Nicola Sturgeon will be losing no sleep whatsoever about the next five years.
(Indeed, while events are unforeseeable, it’d take a brave pundit to imagine – even at this early stage – anyone but the SNP winning the 2021 election. For that to happen either Labour would have to come back from third place, or the Tories would have to reach out far beyond the No Surrender demographic that’s inherently limited to about 30% of Scottish voters and more or less double this year’s vote share. Can anyone see either of those things happening?)
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THE CONSERVATIVES
The Tories will also be delighted with the outcome of the election, which surpassed their wildest dreams. More than doubling their seats is without a shadow of doubt the party’s best-ever result since it emerged from the 1950s Scottish Unionist Party, which is a logical development as it’s achieved it by positioning itself as a return to the SUP’s openly Loyalist values. (Albeit with a lick of socially-liberal paint.)
But on top of supplanting Labour as the main opposition, the victory of Ruth Davidson in her Edinburgh Central seat is a massive and significant PR coup.
For the last five years she’s led the Tories as a list MSP who was utterly rejected at the ballot box, picking up just 1,845 votes and 4th place in Glasgow Kelvin in 2011. But squeezing into a constituency seat as the Greens pointlessly split the Yes vote with a vanity candidate gives her a huge personal mandate, which is already being joyously weaponised by an amazed and ecstatic right-wing press.
The degree to which winning Edinburgh Central legitimises Davidson and her party simply cannot be understated. Had she been a lame-duck list leader it would have undermined the Tory surge, but Davidson is now bulletproof, and also unencumbered by expectation. 31 seats isn’t enough to achieve anything, so the Tories can luxuriate in the high profile of opposition without really having to produce results.
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SCOTTISH LABOUR
What is there to say? If Ruth Davidson dodged being a lame-duck list leader, Kezia Dugdale took it square in the face like a frying pan.
She’s now the only major leader in Holyrood not directly elected by voters, and leads a dismal rump of a party stuffed with dead-weight MSPs who were either also rejected by the electorate (Johann Lamont, James Kelly and her own deputy Alex Rowley), didn’t have the courage to face them at all (Anas Sarwar), or oppose key parts of her platform (Jackie Baillie).
Dugdale has pulled off a task which looked impossible – sinking lower even than Jim Murphy – but has trapped herself into sticking with the job without any real prospect of curing any of Labour’s fundamental sicknesses.
She’s positioned Scottish Labour implacably on the Unionist side of the constitutional debate, right at the moment when the Tories have absolutely seized control of that agenda. She’s chained herself to a core tax-raising policy that saw the SNP reduced to 27 seats in the 2003 election and has seen Labour sink to 24 this time round.
Scottish Labour has no reason to exist. On almost any issue you can name, its policy is just a diluted version of another party’s. Want someone to stand up for Scotland? The SNP have you covered. Looking for a champion of the Union? That’s the Tories’ ground. Hardcore tax-and-spend middle-class left-wing revolutionary? You’re probably voting Green these days.
To be absolutely fair we’re not sure that even Houdini could get out of that pickle, but Kezia Dugdale – an accidental politician, a sidekick not a superhero – definitely doesn’t have the chops for it. Labour aren’t done with falling yet.
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THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS
Aw, Willie Rennie. Look at his happy wee face!
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THE GREENS
Scottish Labour aren’t the only party in a tough spot, however. A heavy burden rests on the Greens, who are swaggering around full of hubris despite having secured just half as many seats as they were predicting before the election.
Their supporters will now expect miracles from a party which in reality has basically no power. The six Green MSPs will have to try to justify their existence by opposing the SNP, even though they were elected chiefly on the grounds of being on the same side in the independence debate.
(Hence the endless social-media protestations about there being a “pro-independence majority”, despite that term being meaningless – Holyrood is a five-year Parliament, not a one-day referendum.)
Yet as we’ve noted above, on almost any given measure the Greens will be irrelevant. The SNP will be able to pass just about any bill with support from other parties, and if Patrick Harvie’s team demand concessions the SNP can call their bluff, as they did when the Greens blocked the budget in 2009.
The Greens’ only recourse will be to ramp up the voter-repelling rhetoric, and if – as unhappy party sources tell us – it makes the obnoxious, pious, intolerant and divisive 21-year-old Ross Greer its chief whip, that will very likely be the direction it takes.
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THE INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT
The most probable outcome of the Greens’ situation will be an increase in bitterness and disunity among the various factions of the Yes movement – something which has already been exacerbated by the inflammatory actions of RISE and its backers in the pro-indy (and Unionist) media during the election campaign.
(Despite being much encouraged and promoted by the press for its own ends, RISE’s aggressive attempts to gather support were disastrous. It not only won far fewer votes than its radical-left arch-enemy Solidarity, but it was also beaten nationwide by the loony right-wing Scottish Christian Party Proclaiming Christ’s Lordship – despite the latter only standing in five regions out of eight – and even managed to lose to the National Front in the North-East.)
The environment of an SNP minority government at Holyrood is unlikely to be very conducive to the healing of wounds in the Yes movement. As we’ve noted previously, Green support for a second referendum is highly suspect, and should the Brexit scenario play out, any failure by the Greens to back an SNP call for a new indyref could cause a catastrophic schism.
(It’s not certain that the SNP would call for another referendum in the event of the rUK voting to drag Scotland out of the EU, but it’s hard to see how they could realistically avoid it. It’s about as big as material changes in circumstance get.)
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It remains this site’s view that last night’s result takes independence off the table for at least five years. Not, despite the claims of the Tory press, for any kind of “moral” reason – more Scots voted for pro-independence parties than ever before – but for a bunch of political ones.
The outcome of the 2016 Scottish Parliament election will be recorded as a victory for the SNP, and it unquestionably was. For all that it lost its majority (ultimately by just a few hundred votes) and sacrificed a small handful of seats, the party’s grip on power has only been cemented. Its historic rival was utterly routed, with no detectable road to recovery, and the new opposition is no threat. The Nats became the first party to win three Holyrood terms in a row, and few if any would bet against a fourth.
But for the independence movement the SNP leads, Thursday was a bad day. By no means fatal, and it may be that delaying a second referendum will be the best thing in the long run, but if the rest of the UK does vote to leave the EU next month, it may yet be a day that supporters of independence will come to rue for a lifetime.
I agree wholeheartedly with all of the article – clear and logical – it may be better for snp – black v white – shipyards, cuts she will have to defend these – she never has had to do that before – and she too has her masters in London – all she has going for her is no indy2 that is her only message – wait council elections coming, labour have even further to fall and in 5 years maybe less indy 2 will be won. The people of Scotland will thoroughly reject the union and what it stands for.
Worth mentioning that the UVF’s Valerie Singleton will now have to adopt actual positions on things that matter. It’ll be harder to appeal as the cuddly tank driving, bull riding, ice cream vendor in 2021.
The way the whole run up to the election was “managed” smacks more than a little of establishment intervention.
I only hope that young Mr Harvie recognises the 1M+ votes for SNP as the equivalent of his “requirement” for a 1M+ signature of a pro-indy petition. As usual with the SGP though, I won’t hold my breath.
A brilliant summary of the political landscape of Scotland.
However, I wouldn’t paint the picture too black as it kind of looks in your last paragraph.
But for the independence movement the SNP leads, Thursday was a bad day. By no means fatal, and it may be that delaying a second referendum will be the best thing in the long run. But if the rest of the UK does vote to leave the EU next month, it may yet be a day that supporters of independence will come to rue for a lifetime.
Stranger things have happened. Though the EU Referendum isn’t a Constitutional decider, at this present time, no one knows how the political landscape; here in Scotland, the UK, or even the world is going to play out in these next few years. Events could transpire that cause the people of Scotland into finally believing that a future in the UK does look bleak and that an alternative must be found.
Over these next 5 years, we have no idea what other shenanigans the Tories will unleash on the British public, let alone Scotland. Could the catastrophes in the Middle East lead to further involvement …possibly even war? Could the migration crisis within Europe cause serious rifts within English politics that cause serious doubts within Scottish minds at how they perceive it? Could the fallout from the EU Referendum (either in or out) leave a bitterness that raises further Constitutional questions?
I don’t believe the summary within that final paragraph should be so bleak looking. Sure the SNP didn’t gain a majority (but they came mighty close), but at the same time, they didn’t lose either. I believe that with so many political debates in the last two years, that a certain amount of weariness has kicked in, and that is why some independent minded people didn’t vote at in this election. An EU Referendum does us no favours here either then.
My own personal view on this election is ‘stalemate’. Neither side gained, and neither side really lost. Percentages remain roughly the same. The challenge then is how to quietly invigorate the electorate to stay ‘tuned’ to the political scene.
But as said, Stuart; who knows what comes next. As Norman Davies noted in his book Vanished Kingdoms, the breakup of the UK has being going on for a 100 years and it began with Ireland. Scotland will definitely be next. All Empires take decades if not centuries to fall. They are not immediate. In that sense, a lot has taken place in the last decade when looking at Scotland. We just need to be patient and allow events to dictate the process. One thing is for certain …we are not going back to an age where there is only the British State and that is it.
Stay positive. After all, on the 19th September 2014, we all thought that was it. And look what has happened since…
Facts and wisdom as usual from Wings.
A year ago, David Cameron stood triumphant on the steps of Downing street, gloating at his unexpected victory.
12 months later, Cameron is on the ropes, the Tories divided on Europe, the government losing commons votes on a variety of subjects, and backtracking on even more.
Come June 23rd, win or lose, the Tories will be engulfed in civil war, the government slowly crumbling away in the next 2 or 3 years, the spectre of the John Major years coming back to haunt the Tories…
And then Ruth Davidson will have to stand up and defend this crumbling government, defend it when austerity bites, and then the shine will come off.
The Tories in Scotland have hit a glass ceiling of support – all they have done is garner those Unionists who would never be voting yes at any rate. No great loss to the Yes side.
A key pillar of the Union, the labour party, has been swept from the board. Either they back independence, or they die, their voters drifting away to the SNP or The Tories.
Rev, you’re saying the indy movement has been stalled? Bollocks! It’s now front and centre – it’s a clear shoot-out between nationalists and unionists for the next five years. Labour need to pick a side or get gunned down in the cross fire. I suspect many will come over to the indy side.
As for the parliament, a minority government will keep the SNP honest and will allow Sturgeon to play the greens, Lib Dems, and Labour against each other in order to get things passed.
On reflection, this is a pretty good result for the independence movement.
Indeed. We’re on a journey. Nobody said the road was always going to be straight and wide. We need to be able to slow down to take the corners safely.
But that doesn’t mean we’re not still on the journey. And we know that the destination remains the same.
Let’s remember we’re doing this not just for ourselves, now. We’re doing this for our future generations. So, let’s do it right as opposed to quickly.
Fat Boab’s not done with playing the bigot card. Under her leadership the tories will go from being unionists to full blown loyalists. She’s about to poison the waterhole
Fantastic summary, Rev. The amount of detail on each party/movement was just right, especially the LibDems! Those jokers obviously benefited from concerted tactical voting in a few staunch NO areas. The Empire has struck back and the yoons are organising, so a minor setback of sorts for the Indy movement was to be expected at some stage. 🙁
The silver lining on the clouds? 🙂 Well, there are a few actually, as you explained so well. I would add that, with Labour now in terminal decline, the remaining core voters are faced with a difficult choice: get off the constitutional fence or go down with your ship. Nicola’s job is to make that choice as easy and painless as possible. Some will go the other way, but they need to get off the fence.
I am a bit sad to see the state of the once mighty Labour party. I felt sorry for Kezia, who looked like a tearful little girl puting on a brave face. Sorry indeed, but it had to happen – the biggest obstacle to independence has now been trashed. Last year most of the progressives went over to the SNP. This week, many of Blair’s babes, the New Labour types, went back to the tories. All that remain are those nostalgics that long for the past glory days. Scottish constitutional politics is coming sharply into focus and people need to change or die. Labour needs to change or die, but I suspect it is unable to and we will witness a continued, slow and painful death.
Scotland is still dipping her toes in the waters of independence. The majority or not yet ready for the full plunge but sooner or later it is going to happen. And what a splash that will be. 🙂
Excellent and pithy analysis! My views, again, represented 100%.
I joined SNP after the referendum, having never been a party member before. I joined to give power to the independence vehicle. I support and physically campaign, for a majority SNP government, not for other SNP members or supporters of independence to take a detour with their second vote, citing crap such as – rainbow parliament – keeping them honest etc.
That’s why I’m so down (but not out). I’m pissed at the gamers and the cringers. The cringers that say, my second vote went to Greens cos SNP are too big for their boots
The gamers that fell for all the heat and noise of the Looney Tunes of the Scottish Crapper, Loki, and RISE, who said game your second vote, cos SNP will get a majority. A big fuck off to you guys.
I totally accept all the positives there are in the picture for SNP, but the independence vehicle is stalled, and it remains to be seen whether the engine is temporarily flooded, or a wheel has come off.
To end on a slightly comical note. I heard my first cuckoo out on my dog walk this morning, and laughed out loud.
If that’s not an omen from the Gods, I don’t know what is.
Let’s be fully aware of the useful fools (tools) in our midst like Loki, doing the work of the Unionists. Because that was also said repeatedly.
The PR system is totally flawed. The NE voted overwhelmingly SNP 30,000 majorities etc. Yet Tories who polled 2,000 and came 3rd/4th are list MSP’s. There are more minority voted Tory MSP’s representing the NE of Scotland than majority voted SNP. That is not right. If people’s vote are just going to be wasted, they will not bother voting. It is being represented by a bunch of Unionists who came last.
The Greens got 150,000 list (2) and got 6 MSPs.
I agree wholeheartedly with your analysis Rev. However,I think tank commander Ruthy can be exploited. She will be self assured and arrogant ,emboldened by her success on the list. People like that often divulge their true self feeling they have more public support than they actually do. We will see the true Ruth in action and it won’t be pretty.
She will only need gentle prodding in public and that is food and drink for Nicola.
More than ever people need to manage their party loyalties where independence is concerned and work with what is in front of them. The yoons will bust a gut to sow division in the movement. Where cracks don’t exist they’ll make them and where they do exist, they’ll widen them into chasms. Its WHAT THEY DO.
By all means folk can get all hot and bothered about tax policy, TTIP approach, health service, fracking, renewables and any other damn thing that floats your boat, that’s the day job and that’s politics. But please, oh please remember what will make the biggest positive difference to people’s lives – an independent Scottish Government. It’s just that important and its just that simple.
The party stuff was two days ago. Today and tomorrow and every day after, the yoon politicians are going to be dreaming up new and interesting ways of fucking up your day for their profit and our misery.
Think about that and think about our movement and our ‘COMMUNITY’. Our movement reminds me of a dysfunctional family at times to be sure. Arguments left, right and centre, but when it counts, I’d hope still family.
Having the tories as the opposition is fine but no majority means that all the MSM will continually run “no mandate” stories for indyref2. These stories will be very corrosive in terms of attracting potential Yes voters the second time around.
There’s no use in people waffling on about a “pro-indy parliament” because you simply cannot trust the Greens. I don’t mean that as a blanket statement – Andy Wightman is someone I do trust but Harvie is a self-serving weasel even by politicians “standards”.
If Brexit happens then unless an immediate indyref is called it’ll be significantly LESS likely that Yes wins.
Think about it – Brexit would happen around 2018/2019 and I’m seeing people talking about 2021-2023 for indyref2? Dream on, there’s absolutely no way there will be a Yes vote after 2-4 years outside the EU because there’s absolutely no way the EU would accept us immediately.
No easy answers….
SKY NEWS—nicola
presenter
1st question
You have fallen short of a majority does that mean the appeal of SNP has peaked?
Becoming very suspicious as to the motives of a lot of posters on supoisdly independence supporting sites , Bella has been flagged as one of the more dubious ones that was the obvious one thrown up to I believe to confuse and distract , all the sites are of interest to a Government who in the end is what we are taking on , not just any political party it’s a National Government .
Sorry for Labour. Their reaction. How did they not see it coming. Do they live in a bubble. Bubbling away at the outcome.
70% of the electorate want FFA. How could they not even come on board for that?
I agree too. Cool calculated thinking needs to be employed by everyone. It was getting crazy this last 18 months. Calling for UDI in some quarters, blaming the SNP for not calling indyref2 when some wanted it. I have just blocked a guy (on Facebook), who I have seen at all the rallies and marches, for a crazy comment and thread he started, blaming Nicola Sturgeon for selling out Independence.
No we have to think, analise, regroup and work hard.
I would love to get a breakdown of how the council elections work. Work out how best we can use the vote to maximise the demise of unionist parties and cllrs, and the electing of pro-indy cllrs, do this for each council.
Build trust with all pro-indy voters of all groups, work together, plan and execute that plan.
Do it for next years council where we have 1 year, but more importantly get it sorted for 2021 Holyrood elections (if we get to that).
Another thought from someone else I read, was that the smaller parties of pro-indy form together and call themselves (for argument) NPS – National Party of Scotland, or a YES Alliance. Only a couple of ideas, which might or might not work. But I hope we all become more savvy in the future. We have come a long way in political awareness in a short time, we continue to learn. A big thank you to the REV for his help.
Last thing I would say is, on all social media, it would be better to ignore the trolls whether they are just individual muppets or from a more sinister source like the security services.
A simple EU exit vote may not be enough to trigger another referendum but consider a step further from one of the speculated EU results. rUK (mainly England) votes to leave. Scotland votes overwhelmingly to stay giving an overall result of stay. England and english tories erupt at the cheek of the Scots determining their future and Cameron and Osborne are forced to pull us out anyway on the grounds that England decides (the clue is EVEL). Surely this must trigger an immediate referendum.
@rmfbrown
‘As for the parliament, a minority government will keep the SNP honest and will allow Sturgeon to play the greens, Lib Dems, and Labour against each other in order to get things passed.’
I wonder if you know how much this pisses off SNP members like me? I didn’t join a dishonest party, and the local councillors in my area are hardworking, honest characters.
When has the SNP gov’t been caught in dishonesty?
My fear is that SLabour will become more bitter chasing the Unionist vote next year at council elections.That they will try to out do the Torys as defenders of the Union “no surrender”. I really hope I’m wrong!
“the collective democratic will of the Scottish electorate was correctly represented and implemented”
I disagree. 137k Region votes in the NE got zero list seats for the SNP, 85k votes got 4 seats for the SCon and 38k votes for SLab got them 2 seats.
We need a second SNPregion party to hoover up the region vote and get c. 50% of the list seats.
That way the democratic will of the 137k voters WILL be represented and implemented.
I don’t know about you, Stu, but I didn’t vote for a Scottish Nation State, I voted for Scottish Independence.
For me, that means Policy not Politics. I voted for SNP because they are the competent party and that in turn is because their best people are Premier League players who actually WANT to be in Holyrood, not Westminster, and by and large the other parties are lower league – if not applying for re-election.
Unfortunately, too many SNP policies do not come from the politicians – and party memberships – but from the Executive, and their menu of time expired crap policies which have been sitting there to be imposed top down.
Classic recent example is the Named Person scheme. The principle behind it is fine. But the implementation has been completely crap. The good news is that the SNP are at least smart and agile enough to get that, but the fundamental problem is that it was implemented top down and not bottom up.
Police Scotland? Catastrophically bad top down centralised implementation.
Fracking? What would have put that on hold until at least 2020 (irrespective of yesterday’s result) is the fact that it’s a Tory policy.
But streets ahead of any other subject is the need for new fiscal and monetary policy. through which Scotland finances and funds itself. Or rather SHOULD finance and fund itself.
Scotland has the land, natural & human resources to be independent in terms of meeting all our basic needs of shelter, heat/power, food (pretty much). Why on earth do we think we need credit from London? That’s bollocks, and could easily be dispensed with well before the next election comes round.
This is where progress can be made at local level, particularly – a Big Ask – if SNP and Labour can co-operate (and Co-operation is the key word here – Unions please note) on local policy such as care, health and education through drawing upon the value of local land use value and local energy use to reanimate local economies.
In a nutshell, the West Lothian Question has West Lothian Answers.
@Vestas
Even if the SNP had won the majority, the MSM would have instead ran the stop talking about another referendum line.
The MSM were always going to bash the SNP regardless, so no need to give a monkey’s about what they’re saying.
We need to focus on the hand we’ve been dealt, rather on the hand we wished we had been dealt.
That was building bridges with the greens, working constructively with them, building more support for yes, and most importantly, being patient.
Greens. Hmmm. Well, its simple. They do a ‘Libdem’ or they do something better. It would be hard for them to toady as the Libdems did, simply working on principle that voters look on them as better than all of this.
You note, Rev, that Labour are pointless. The Greens can take the left now, and evolve. Caring for society and the environment together is a no brainer. The RISE/rump of that uber-socialism must see the Greens as a route now. Stop being the mini players and get into the groove.
Otherwise, post ‘non party’, its SNP agogo. The Tories will be joyous to watch – hideous but entertainingly useless.
Everyone, stop for a minute, think of Labour.
@Valerie
Apologies if I’ve offended you. By honest, I didn’t mean criminal activities, instead, I was referring to the fact that the SNP won’t get complacent as they’re now a minority government.
My big fear was that the SNP would turn into the Labour Party, that big majorities would see the SNP coasting along, and become a party of career politicians, much like Labour in Scotland were for decades. That’s what I was referring too.
This is exactly what I think Rev. As you said, we actually increased our voters from 2011, increased our majority in the seats we gained from 2011 and absolutely( ironically with the tories lending a helping hand) took revenge on Labour, especially in Glasgow. I always said the Greens my have supported independence in 2014, but they are not a pro-indy party. Well, people are going to find that out the hard way. Why do they never learn? Absolutely no bloody foresight. As for brexit possibly happening and ref2 being voted out of parliament – I think the long-long wait for it to sink in and the tories down south causing more havoc with no EU to curb them will be the final straw. All it takes is time to cement Yes in the soft No’s. Then, in 2021 parly elections, the SNP could put in a manifesto for independence “if” they get an majority! I think people that could be swayed may become so disillusioned with the union by that point that we would win. Water no matter how slow it’s moving always erodes the hardest rock over time. Everyone don’t feel too down about the result it has some upsides to it. We are not defeated, not by a long shot. The tories have fallen into a trap of their own making. It just takes time. With or with out brexit.
Good summing up Rev,
With the exception of the of a referendum being off the agenda for this whole term, well, we’ll just have to agree to disagree, the possibility of holding a “snap” referendum should always be held in readiness. What was the odds against Leicester on winning the league?, O.K. this is not a football game, but it does show how the bookies can get it way wrong.
This upcoming session is going to be a head to head the “yes” and the “noes”, Buffalo Ruth can’t help it its in her D.N.A. to misunderstand the natural will of self determination. If you get my drift!.
Fine article Stu.
I think people cannot see the wood for the trees.
Everyone is talking about the 63 SNP MSPs or the Tories as number two.
The most seismic shift happened on Thursday and that was the removal of the scene of the “Labour Project”, which has always been used by the British Empire to quell the Scots.
A party of, at best, useful idiots and, at worst, tractors.
The indyref1 campaign showed them up as being Red Tories. Last year they were wiped out of Scotland on the WM level. And now they have been removed from the scene in Scottish local politics.
[If you are a Mags Curran or a Willie Bain, your only hope is to try to get on Larkhall Council next year, if you want a political career!]
For nigh on 100 years, the British Empire used the “Labour Project” in Scotland to do their dirty work.
But now they have been unmasked. It is now a clear fight between the YES movement and the Tories. The BBC will do their best, but they will fail.
It is time to restart the whole YES movement, because Thursday took us yet another step towards independence.
Good article, thanks.
Have shared with my cousins who are having a wee holiday down ‘sooth’ and who emailed today saying how the tories have done so well in Scotland. They do seem partial to believing exactly what the bbc tells them, so sent this and the fabulous CK cartoon to them.
I feel much more positive knowing that the SNP will do their damnedest to govern well for Scotland for the next five years.
I can imagine the tories will try to divide people regards independence to the detriment of all though, it’s in their blood. The toxic tories in london will be planning their next move, scrap the human rights act, new terrorism act?
Now let’s see what happens in June, but as the labour guy on duty with me at the poll station other day said, the out lot are all fascists, mind you he was an out anyway. Hmm.
Tbh I never thought another referendum within 5 years was particularly likely, or even desirable, in any case.
As someone who lives in England (London) and so has something of an exposure as to how people think down here.
There is a division between Scotland and England and it has increased in recent years, but a large extent of that has been English people themselves developing a nastier attitude towards Scotland (Just see the last Question Time programme for proof). This is never commented on by unionist politicians or the media (surprisingly enough!)
I regard it as more likely that England will effectively force independence on Scotland before Scotland has a chance to vote for it itself.
To all those looking only at list votes or only at constituencies, and condeming the voting system – please look at the total votes for each party against the seats they hold.
The seat percentages are within +/- 3.5% on the vote.
The D’Hondt system is the closest thing to electoral democracy anywhere in the UK. Which ok isnt saying that much, but its not bad at all.
If Wings was a print newspaper your headlines could have deservedly been
“Wings abused for being right”
Scotland has a gift for shooting itself in the foot, fortunately this time we only blew a toe off and that’ll mend
The Ruth Davidson NO to another referendum party, based her whole campaign on divisiveness sectarianism and the red white and blue of Britishness, a them and us strategy exactly what Cameron did at the referendum and exactly what the Tories have just done in the London Mayoral Elections
at least in that one they didn’t get away with it
Within the Conservative party there have already been calls for Ms Davidson to move to London and be a possible replacement for David Cameron, that’s how much the Tories like this type of politics #Keep it vile
There is absolutely no need as you say of the FM seeking any deals with any party for the sake of a couple of votes and my guess is there will be a rapid rethink in the Labour party to rescue their own position that a wee pally up with the SNP (If they can) would be a sensible move for them
although sensible thinking has bee in short supply in the Labour party for a long time
Chairman Harvie’s new found chest puffing power will be brought back down to Green earth with the clang of a decommissioned oil rig when he realises rather quickly he’s not the pal he thought he was and there will be plenty of others to lend the SNP the votes they require, for whatever they require them for
Nicola Sturgeon is a warm and kind person but she’s a Velocirapter when it comes to the business of the SNP and her ambitions for Scotland and as I’ve said previously Kezia Dugdale was given an easy ride by the FM, Ruth Davidson will receive no such concessions because now the political position in Scotland is completely clear the Tories are the enemy of everybody in Scotland even though some snotty Labour supporters may have lent them their votes in order to stop the SNP they will quickly realise it didn’t work
Referendum? mibbees aye mibbees naw
Haud yer breath
The real question is how can a credible pro-indy majority can be won in 2021, without falling victim to the same strategy that stopped an SNP majority this time.
Perhaps a unified YES party on the list, with no real agenda other than independence. With a mix of left-right opinion.
Many SNP supporters I know would have voted tactically for a credible Independence Party – Not far left socialists hijacking the independence cause to push their own agenda.
The reason I think a list based Independence Party could work is this: The unionists could counter the strategy with a Union Party of their own, but the SNP should still be to retain a majority of constituency seats in central Scotland to get a combined pro-independence group over the line.
Good analysis and factually spot on.
It actually beggars belief that you can produce work of this quality and accuracy ( referring to the predictions and the assimilation of supporting evidence) and yet attract universal condemnation from the MSM. Actually it’s worse than that…….they stopped condemning you as soon as they seen you as a threat. They now routinely ignore you. Apathy versus denial……apathy will always win. Add to that the limited resources Wings have and minor miracles are happening here on a daily basis. I don’t always agree 100% with your position on everything but it is difficult to refute any of the facts you present. That I suspect is why the MSM don’t take you on too often.
So……..keep it up
Personally I would dump the football legislation even although it is popular. Let the police take their own approach using the previous laws. Breach of the peace or whatever.
The resistance to it from football fans is huge, and it doesn’t make independence any easier. We have to ask what is more important.
So let the nutters sing abuse to their hearts content and laugh as Rangers and Celtic repeatedly get fines and bans from Europe.
Let’s see them deal with it when it directly affects their income. The fans will end up turning on each other instead of the government.
I’ve chapped many a door for the SNP. In poorer areas (the sort of area I grew up in) people were fed up. They’d always voted Labour in the past, but Labour had never done anything to help them. Now they had switched to the SNP, or were thinking about it.
I don’t really have a problem with RISE, but when you don’t have any money and you are terrified that your mobility scooter is going to be taken away, you are only ever going to vote for a party that you think will be in a position of power to do something about that. It was always Labour or the SNP because if you didn’t vote for those parties, then the Tories might get in and then you’d be screwed.
As Paul Mason put it, Scotland’s politics have crystallised between a left-led independence movement and Conservative Unionism. Since the SNP are the obvious vehicle for independence (they are the ONLY party that has ANY chance of getting a majority with a manifesto promise to hold another referendum), they will continue to be attacked by right-wing media, Tory unionists, and those lovely folks who maintain a social democratic façade to hide their British Nationalism. You know exactly who I mean.
So everyone is trying to erode SNP support, to stop the threat of independence. What pisses me off are the useful huge-ego fucking idiots on the left who constantly snipe away at the SNP and their supporters. “You’re not REALLY radical, like I am. You’re just backing the ESTABLISHMENT. Actually you’re just a bunch of Tories. Look, I’m going to spoil my ballot paper in protest.” Unionists absolutely love these guys, because it allows them to say: “Look, even your own side agree with us. The SNP are just like any other party. You’re wasting your time.”
So, drip by drip, it sinks in. And eventually enough voters think “What is the point? I might as well not bother voting.” So they stay home. And those useful fucking idiots on the left have done their job. They can now wallow in their bitterness and glee at having stood against the establishment, and go on presenting themselves as the face of the radical thought which we would vote for if we weren’t so stupid.
And, meanwhile, the Tories win.
Apologies for the rant. I need to go out and get some fresh air.
Oh the irony, the Tories in government in Westminster with much less of the popular vote thanks to FPTP. The blue branch in Scotland hugely reliant on the far more democratic electoral system.
No one can see how this will all play out but as far as I’m concerned it is still positive.
In Westminster, the Tory economic policy will fail. Most likely in the 5 year period we will see another recession .(we didn’t really get out of the last one) but it will be a massive blow out of private debt – a policy that the Tories have used to ‘grow’ the economy. Of course, the compliant kuensbergian media machine will have the Tory backs and this is why it’s important for Westminster SNP to call them out now and warn the nation of the impending economic crisis and that responsibility lies at the feet of Osborne and co.
The SNP focusing on climate change is very smart. The mainstream media have been keeping the lid on the climate related disasters that have been going on over the past couple of years but that can only last for so long. When it all blows up we should be a few steps ahead of the game. My job is very much dependent on oil but I can see what’s happening.
The greens can bring in some more innovative policies to the table but will bare part of the responsibility for these.
As for how the Tories perform. They will undoubtedly have lots of resource in London instructing them on every dirty trick in the book. They will probably flood the SNP with FOIs just to em burden them.
So rather than shun my local tory list MP, I intend to keep them very busy indeed and I think that’s a
Tactic we should all use.
Folks progress is NEVER linear. There are bumps and bends and dead ends along the way and that’s why sites like this are SO SO important (Stuart you must be due a holiday!).
Ruth Davidson harps on about ‘once in a generation ‘ but tragically her party is reponsible for reducing the span of that generation.
Two points.
RD now has plenty of rope to hang herself.
The Indy suporting Labour party members who were constrained in opposition are now off the hook and can assert themselves. They’ve nothing to lose
@Robbo A lot of these so-called “English white settlers” live here because they want a better country. Many worked hard for a Yes vote. That’s dangerous stuff you spout there, bordering on rascism. The tories amongst them live beside similarly inclined Scots.
Independence is on the cards. It’s what I want and it doesn’t depend on anyone thinking that I can only achieve this by some mythical terms and conditions i.e when I can vote on this issue or not in a second referendum or not.
I have voted to put a majority SNP government in place and that is exactly what’s going to happen.
This is another step in the right direction and I’m not going to give up even if the author of this site has.
Nothing is ever gained by giving up.
Excellent analysis ,I havent checked the timeline but I imagine that Ruth Davidson’s decision to stand in edinburgh central postdates Alison Johnstones as Edinburgh central has not had a Tory representative since 1983,and then briefly.The Tories must have seen the opportunity.I find it difficult to forgive the greens for this pointless wrecking.
The SNP team worked tirelessly canvassing and tramping the streets in all weathers for the last 8 months and because the greens split the vote ,a few weeks of photo opportunities were enough to give us the ghastly embarrassment of Ruth Davidson as our msp.
I don’t think there should be another indy ref in the next 5 years, we’d lose it and then the dream really would die. However, there are two silver linings. One – Ruth D is like Cameron, superficially charming but a nasty piece of work just under the surface and both hate being challenged. As leader of the second party she can’t hide and if Nicola presses the right spots, nasty Ruth will come out and everybody will see it.
Secondly I think it will be a close remain vote in June – but wonder what will happen if England and perhaps Wales votes out but is kept in by the vote in Scotland? Will they throw us out the union – probably not? But the anti-Scottish rhetoric will ramp up and it will win over the “I like independence with my heart but my head says no” folk. The % of folk who will accept being treated like the enemy within because they are British above all else isn’t a high one – probably around 25%.
Rev, the third Willie Rennie photo doen should be above the first one. Wee Willie broke the rules of the volcano slide!!!!
I have run out of tolerance for all the talk about the divide of the yes movement.
There is no divide unless we make it so and talk about it enough. The pro-indy websites have a responsibility here to act maturely and responsibly and stop leading people into petty division and rivalries. What is achieved by it?
There are differences of opinion, all very valid. Let’s respect that. I think the election results have turned out well for everyone. The yes movement now needs to rally around the greens and snp and support the independence movement together. If the SNP had won a majority they may have gone a bit off the rails with the power and the greens and left would have opposed them more and more. However, in a loose co-operative arrangement all views are valid and needed so it is good.
Ok in the lead up to the election we bickered and fought for votes, but the cards have fallen, time to return to a positive yes stance and work together.
The tories will now be the face of unionism directly, as Kenny says above, and will be exposed every week at FMQ. The Labour party was deflecting the arguments, now we deal directly with the real enemy which is the Tory mindset.
Labour has some serious reflection to do and who knows where they might end up. They can do nothing and slide into irrelevance like the lib dems, or they can take a strong stance on the constitution, no, yes or federalism. Very interesting times.
It is all good and we must stay positive and stay united as I believe Indy is becoming more and more inevitable. We must build on our now consolidated Independence support, rally around it, stop fighting each other, stay positive and get behind the push for Independence. I think we may be nearing the final days.
Great analysis. Its hard to know just how much and how often Scots can actually keep voting SNP for independence.
That dreadful P&J front page rubbish sums it all up. Toryboy world just will not allow Scotland to become a nation state, no matter how many times we vote for SNP for Scottish independence.
Take on BBC led then next ferocious Project Fear 2 with Ref 2 or do we just continue to let Westminster control Scottish economy? Scotland is still a regional economy controlled almost entirely by Westminster and the Treasury, running up giant debt for Scots that’s invested in England, terrifying burden of not Scots oil, its that great UKOK double whammy, with BBC Scotland stamping SNP Scots.gov over and over.
“There is no divide unless we make it so and talk about it enough. The pro-indy websites have a responsibility here to act maturely and responsibly and stop leading people into petty division and rivalries. What is achieved by it?”
I agree. Maybe try telling that to Bella Caledonia and Common Space, who’ve both run several articles strongly (and pretty offensively) attacking/smearing us in the last few weeks. You won’t have seen any on here attacking them. But you won’t see links to them any more either.
Originally I though Rev was short for Reverend, but in this case it is for Revelation.
In a Darker hour I would again like to thank the Rev for being the one true source of reason and truth in a sea of deceit and lies that we call the UK media.
Your skill and dedication to this site are indefatigable.
I genuinely believe that WoS delivers somewhere North of 5%
of the Votes for both SNP and Independence.
An incredible achievement all the more spectacular when done with honesty and integrity.
We are all greatly indebted to you Rev, and I have every faith that your support will grow and that you will lead us to a fair and just society in an Independent Scotland.
Thursday was a fantastic triumph for the SNP. Remember the day after the Ref? We were to be bayoneted and disposed of. Then something happened..
trying again comment missing sorry if it appears twice.
Good article, thanks.
Have shared with my cousins who are having a wee holiday down ‘sooth’ and who emailed today saying how the tories have done so well in Scotland. They do seem partial to believing exactly what the bbc tells them, so sent this and the fabulous CK cartoon to them.
I feel much more positive knowing that the SNP will do their damnedest to govern well for Scotland for the next five years.
I can imagine the tories will try to divide people regards independence to the detriment of all though, it’s in their blood. The toxic tories in london will be planning their next move, scrap the human rights act, new terrorism act?
Now let’s see what happens in June, but as the labour guy on duty with me at the poll station other day said, the out lot are all fascists, mind you he was an out anyway. Hmm.
Rev, disagree with your analysis of Ruth Davidson. I think what you describe is what press/public coverage she previously received. Being hidden away and irrelevant gives you a certain safety net from scrutiny, however now being the main party of opposition, she will find herself unable to distance herself from the UK Tories, Cameron or Osbourne.
Every week at FMQ’s Sturgeon has the opportunity to hit easy home runs by tagging Davidson with the Westminster party and their frankly disastrous time in office.
The bigger the stage you achieve, the more scrutiny you will be placed under. That’s Davidson.
As for the EU vote and Independence, I’m not convinced it’s a lost cause. If Scotland are forced to leave while voting to remain against it’s wishes, I’ll think you see an EU move to try and legitimise Scotland’s demands with calls for a new referendum on Scottish independence. There is nothing to stop us holding a vote, just as long as it’s motivated by opinion polls, a wide civic movement, protests and the support from other EU countries – not the SNP.
If the Scottish/EU lack of membership question was a key element in the loss of the 2014 ballot, then it is logical that it could also play a major role in the gaining of independence when the question is ‘reversed’ and becomes about the UK leaving.
All those people that voted for Davidson in this election, that she describes as ‘not Tory’ will soon be rethinking their blue vote if faced with the possibility that the now have no safety net from Cameron and Osbourne that the EU may have provided.
Not really sure why the possible material change in circumstances IE brexit would lead us to “rue” the day. Taking pro and anti infy votes into account on Thursday the margin was reduced to 3 percentage points. The greens hand could be forced in to a 2nd vote and a couple of recent polls say we would vote yes if brexit happened.
Well said SheenaJ!
The MPs and MSPs are just the political interface of YES.
A whole lots of stuff has being going on in the background ever since indyref1. I see a strong collective will to build Scotland into a country in which the step to independence will not only be inevitable but natural and desirable.
I really wish people would stop complaining about the voting system. It did what is says in the tin. It provides a far more appropriate distribution of seats in Holyrood, that pretty closely matches the votes of each party.
People rightly complained when FPTP disadvantaged the SNP at Westminster. But last year we got 95% of the MPs on only 50% of the vote. It was great wasn’t it! The system being used against them. But was it Democratic? It seems to me that some people only want the system which provides them with the result they want. I thought we were better than that
So what DID happen? Taking the constituency vote. This is the equivalent of Westminster, the system most people consider unjust. The SNP gathered 46.5% of the vote but they won 81% of MSPs. Do we consider that fair?
d’Hondt tries to address that inequality through the AMS. Again looking at the percentage vote on the constituencies we find:
SNP: 46.5% (%age of final MSPs: 48.8%)
Cons: 22% (24%)
Lab: 22.6% (18.6%)
Green: 6.6% (4.6%)
LibDem: 5.2% (3.9%)
Without the AMS we would have a grossly inequitable Parliament.
As it stands, it was Lab that ‘lost out’ with the system this time round and SNP and Tories that were slightly advantaged.
Let’s drop the complaints, please. There are more important tasks ahead
People’s eyes are totally off the ball over the issue of the Majority.
Here’s the cold hard numbers.
600,000 went out and voted Yes in September 2014 who did not go to the ballot box on Thursday.
400,000 went out and voted SNP in May 2015 who did not go to the ballot box on Thursday.
That’s the core problem. The SNP did not get enough of their core voters to turn up at the Polling Place, regardless of how they actually voted once they got there. GoTV is the most IMPORTANT part of the election and the Tories were exceptional on this and the SNP failed.
I do not for one second believe that IF the SNP brought forward a motion for indy ref2, the greens would block it. At the very worst they might abstain, but to block such a move would kill much of their support, which they gained during indyref1.
As for Brexit, even if Scotland votes NO, and England says YES, the fact is, such a move would take around two years. It is a complex process. It is perfectly feasible within that timescale for the SNP to push forward why an independent Scotland staying in the EU would be better.
Having spoken with some folks from Europe, my feeling is, that in such a scenario, the EU would roll out the red carpet to Scotland. Many within the EU despise the arrogant ‘Britain Knows best’ petty minded xenophobia coming from England, and helping Scotland stay in the EU would be just the tonic.
So, we really cannot predict how events may unfold, the entire UK is in a state of flux, and the politics of both Scotland and Englandshire are changing rapidly.
I feel quite upbeat, for the above, and many other reasons, I do not agree with REV Stu on the issue of independence. I think our chance may come sooner than any of us expect. As the old saying goes ‘a week is a long time in politics’, well five years is an eternity. Everything is changing.
I posted on this last night, with a link (below) to a piece by the excellent Paul Mason, formerly of CH4 news economics, and it raises some very interesting points, which I think indy supporters are missing. I’d recommend reading it all the way through.
I do think we need to have a bit of vision here, the future is our for the taking, but we won’t get it if we indulge in petty infighting and recrimination. The result is what it is. Nobody promised breaking free from London’s colonial vice-like grip would be easy. Chin up! 🙂
link to medium.com
One thing for Greens to beware of. Now that the Trots of Rise have utterly destroyed the SSP and the looser pro-Indy left, they’ll now
need a new plaything. Watch out for Riser entryism into the Greens.
Rev @1.56
Well said. I won’t be sharing or linking to Della Catatonia or Wasteaspace.
Stopped doing that after all the shite they ran about the water contract.
As Macart above said, sort out your loyalties independence or party. Or perhaps it is limelight.
Thanks Rev for the party run down, I particularly liked the LibDems one, and the sheer insignificance of Wee Willy Rennie.
Rev, I didn’t see the articles you mention, but gave up on BC and CS quite a while ago. There are much more interesting, factual and positive blogs etc to read online than those, ScotGoesPop, WGD to name but 2, aside the obvious WoS, 🙂
What happened and what happens next
Political cause and effect.
The SNP landslide in 2015 has obviously spooked the yoons. Their reaction was evident this week. Anti-SNP tactics en masse. Another indyref so soon is a terrifying prospect to some. The NO voters did not exactly enjoy the first one, and many will do anything to avoid another one, even if that means voting tory. I have to admit, Ruth Davidson played a blinder. However, nowhere for her to hide now – she is under the spotlight and that nice tory mask will slip sooner or later and the real Ruth will be exposed for all to see. And when it does, it won’t be pretty.
In a similar fashion, the terrifying reappearance of the tories on the electoral map this week will help concentrate a few minds of the remaining traditional Labour support. Who will now protect them from these predators? The solution is in their hands but they have to cross the Rubicon as many of their friends, relatives and neighbours already have. They already know what they have to do next year at the council elections, but they still need to thin hard, take a deep breath and do it.
@cookie
Good point. Let’s hope they have more humility and decency than that.
No one is trying to put them out of business, BUT, my point to their supporters was, why are they not putting time into policy, and building a base? Then getting into their community at local and council level?
No, they wanted to just catapult right over that, onto the stage.
Do those in the minor parties think that every SNP policy is just accepted? The SNP remains a broad burch for those seeking Independence. It represents a general direction of travel by Scots who want Scotland to be shaped by the people who live here.
John Finnie left the SNP for the Greens over NATO. John may have noticed by now that we are still in NATO and the Greens have zero impact on that position (nor have the SNP). What would John and others do in an Independent Scotland that doesn’t follow their plan?
The people of Scotland will shape their nation be it left, right or centre. We will have parties representing every shade of politics at Holyrood. However if pre YES2 All we do is shuffle the same votes between Independence parties the only winner is unionism.
It appears that the Green Party and their voters will support Independence as long as it is THEIR kind of Scotland. The rest of us will compromise on policy in order to gain Independence.
No ego, policy, party or preference should be put ahead of Independence.
If I can live in a Tory UK, with WMD and America as our best buddy I’m certain I can tolerate a Scotland not aligned to the perfect vision of a personal utopia. Why – because I’m confident it will be better, much better.
I will get behind the best chance to deliver Independence – The SNP. I don’t care what banner that is YES / SNP or anything else.
Others it appears would rather shout about undeliverable narrow policies under the union.
Most accurate appraisal of where we all stand written since the result.
Like the SNP, the vast majority of grassroots members of the Green Party joined after IndyRef with the aim of keeping the cause of independence firmly on the table.
Two things need to happen for IndyRef2. Firstly a trigger, secondly a starting level of support which make success appear highly likely.
If both of those conditions are met, then I am sure the SNP would grab the opportunity. If some of the leadership of the Greens are luke warm, their members certainly won’t be. As the article points out, it’s hard to imagine the Greens not stepping up.
In an ideal world some Labour folks would see which way the wind was blowing and jump the Union ship. That would be a bonus, however unlikely. Just maybe.
The EU isn’t the ideal trigger, I’m sure. Time to build support first would be better.
Building support and converting soft NOs is the immediate priority. Having the Tories as opposition is an asset, in an perverse way.
Also, the new SG needs to put as much clear water (not blue) between Scotland and WM. Build consensus to oppose Trident in every possible democratic way. Then when it’s forced upon us .. another chunk of Scots turn pro Indy.
This tactic can be used in other areas. Make sure everyone knows what the SG and Scotland stands for, and also what the Tories and WM stands for. Each issue will chip away at the undecided.
Pretty much agree with this.
I have some points I’d like to add.
The Buffalo Rider claims the SNP have no mandate for independence on 46% of seats on a one-off vote – and over 1 million votes, a new record. She campaigned as the ONLY person/party to defend the Union. She got 24% of seats- but managed to get less votes overall even than Labour! What mandate has she got?
Better still, she claims to be a Conservative, but hid the policies while riding anything in sight. Plenty of chance to wrong-foot her recent converts to the dark side over free prescritption, Uni fees, poverty.
If she tries the tack of adding Labour and the Liars to her total, then there is a theoretical majority of MSPs of other parties in favour of independence.
Similarly with the jibe of 46% of 55% – what’s 24% of 55%?
Tactical voting got rid of the Tories in Scotland – we are now on the receiving end in Edinburgh, Dumbartonshire, the Borders, Aberdeenshire, and Orkney and Shetland. That’s why a few hundred votes did for the majority. Some of these areas have particular reasons for the high numbers of anything but SNP voters.
The next issue won’t be a post-brexit referendum, it will be how to deal with tactical voting in the Council elections. It’s hard to “game” the D’Hondt system successfully – it worked as designed. It’s a dawdle to game the STV system. Simply vote 1,2,3, yoon.
There is a very high possibility of eliminating all SNP control in Councils if the “Yoons” are motivated enough – and they will be. It will take 50% on the first vote to stop them – or better than 46% PLUS help from second preference Greens, Solidarity, Rise or whatever left alternative exists – IF everyone gets over the grumpiness.
After another week or so of re-evaluation we need to drop the negativity over what is – in essence – a very good result, stop slagging, and get talking to potential allies and converts.
Stu will always provide plenty of evidence and challenges to the status quo for ammunition. He’s entitled to his opinions on his own site – he doesn’t claim that we all have to agree with his opinions on everything from flavoured crisps to voting systems.
The SNP might want to look at some repositioning or transformative plans.
Try looking out and up instead of back.
#Dair @ 2:05 pm
There has been a change in the law on voter registration since the referendum.
According to a motion in Holyrood, in January of this year, supported by MSP’s from various parties there are 230,000 fewer registered voters in Scotland for this election.
@ SheenaJ
“The tories will now be the face of unionism directly, as Kenny says above, and will be exposed every week at FMQ. The Labour party was deflecting the arguments, now we deal directly with the real enemy which is the Tory mindset”.
Hi Sheena , I said this in a previous posting pre election that where Ruth promoted her Unionist badge as being the ultimate weapon for holding the SNP to account, the reality is that it is her who will held to account for her colleagues ruthless policies at HQ.
It will be interesting to hear how she will try to challenge SNP policies and funding while also having to defend the policies and cuts imposed by her own party.I predict a glass houses scenario where it will be Ruth who will be in the hot chair having to try and justify the unjustifiable.
That the Tories have increased their position in the Scottish parliament and are now officially the opposition, which is regrettable, it is however an opportunity to expose their culpability. I predict some uncomfortable moments for Ruth and co which should diminish their euphoria and perhaps Ruth and co may be less smug about their ‘small’ victory when they find themselves in the firing line and ultimately it is finally they who be held to account.
So as to Ruth holding the SNP to account I say beware of false predictions Ruth because I anticipate it is you who will be the prey and Nicola the Huntress.
As to Labour and Lib Dem well one is a spent FORCE and one I believe ALLEGEDLY still owes money to the police FORCE…and if justice is alive then hopefully… May the FORCE never be with them.( And actually if Lib Dem do still allegedly owe money to the police force then perhaps the FORCE will NEVER be with them at their future conferences lol lol lol )
Onwards and upwards always.
mr thms,
#GE2015
8.5% of the Electorate voted Tory
32.5% of the Electorate voted SNP
#SP2016 Constituency
12.1% of the Electorate voted Tory
25.9% of the Electorate voted SNP
Those numbers don’t lie. Regardless of the changes in voter registration, the Electorate comparison is the same. The SNP failed to motivate their supporters to get off their arse and vote while the Tories motivated their supporters.
That’s because the Tories MADE it about the Union and the SNP actually said it was NOT about Independence every time they opened their mouths.
IMHO
Bull Davidson was hand picked by Tory HQ because she will do whatever they order, for her own personal gain. No job to low or dirty, no scruples, no conscience, she is a prodigy of Thatcherism. A truly nasty piece of work, a smiling assassin, a Woolf in sheeps clothing. She wouldn’t be out of place in the mafia.
She was hand picked by central office to replace to soft Annabel. They neaded a unthinking hitman who would just carry out orders and no questions. Central office, MSM & EBC will provide the cover and the vehicle to give her a stage to spout their propaganda and lies.
She and Londinium will completely wreck the unionists plans because they do not understand Scottish politics or the Scottish people. As soon as Ruthy is told to attack she will and the whole unionist charade will be exposed for all to see, the game will be up.
What positive policies do the Tories have to offer Scotland? Cuts to the Nhs, prescription charges, university fees, trident, fracking, austerity. Yep hence the reason they don’t talk about their positive side, they just keep snapping at everyone else.
Well SLAB is
finished and the only two defenders of this vile Union are bull Davidson and wacky Willie. Think one last push should do it then we can get rid of these clowns.
Hey. Can I be the first to coin a new phrase for supposedly independence supporting, often piously left wing critics who seem to spend more time criticising the “new Orwellian establishment” of the SNP?
Natbuts.
You can’t take the rise out of that.
It’s a bit weird (after reading the Effie Deans blog) to find nationalists feeling that they’ve lost the election and Tories thinking that they’ve won. As far as I can see the SNP have another 5 year term and the only sticking point-a potential second referendum- should be achievable with a judicious deal with the Green party.
Clootie says:
“Isupport Independence as long as it is THEIR kind of Scotland”
There two approaches. Broad church, consensus, and an eye on the big prize … versus … political purity and a narrow vision.
The SNP are of the first flavour, all other Indy groupings of the second.
I know which way I reckon will work!
i only ever argue for issues and tactics that will help to bring about scottish independence.
simply because all other issues are subservient to this issue, monarchy, republicanism, EU in or out etc…. eat yer cereal folks as all these issues are and will be decided in another country. your votes and opinions are nothing more than dried peas rattling around in an empty cocoa tin. Only independence can give meaning to any issue.
i am disappointed to see the bickering among the various indy groups, it only ever gives a platform for the more extreme members on all sides to to spout pish and divide us further. Rise supporters like the attention seeking Loki and his poverty porn attempts to damage the yes movement are rightly given short shift but no side is exempt from these cringers, even wings today is full of
“ye canny trust a green….their eyes are to close together” types commenting on the individuals of their hate and bile. Tomorrow it will be “see they wimuns equality party, they’re fifth columist lizard aliens they are”……
Harvey was very clear about supporting indy during the leaders debate, ron greer (dont like the guy, had a few run ins wi’ him) was very clear about his support for indy and now we are supposed to believe that John Finnie is luke warm about indy?
tommy sheppard said during his maiden speech at WM in 2015, “We did not seek a mandate for another referendum in this election and neither did we win one”
Nicola was also less forceful in this election about the certainty of having indyref2 in this term. Rightly so in my view. we should commit to indyref2 when we are sure of winning, the last poll rev did showed support still only about 49% yes.
This lack of a mandate has been picked up by ruth “spoilt bastard” davidson as meaning the snp has no mandate to call indyref2. Give her enough rope…. she might even be right but there will be many opportunities to win one, eg local elections, another GE if enough tories are jailed for election expensis fraud etc. what will she say then?
Im not too unhappy about yesterdays result. Support for indy and the SNP has not fallen, just a victim of voter apathy. there is only a lib dem revival in rennies fevered imagination. there is no massive swing from labour to the tories, but dont tell slab that though, a complete crash and burn followed with a move to the right will only deliver more of their remaining supporters to our cause. So let ruth try to “out tory” bojo or osborne, let her believe that there are hoards of the great unwashed, hanging on her every whim, queing up so their children can be sodomised by her bbctory expense fraud friends. Delusion is strong in this inanely grinning space hopper, good. By the time the unionist bubble bursts, it will be too late.
Willie Rennie!
Trying to imagine Andy Wightman being to told what to do by tankard Greer, as whip. How long would that last?
I would think Patrick Harvie would be the one to tell him, then they would all pretend he was obeying the whip.
Stu. Your warnings were right on the button. Now I’ve nothing against Rise or the Greens etc but I was bitterly disappointed by the likes of Lasley Riddoch for suggesting 2nd vote A.N. Other. I know a lot of these people want social change but don’t seem to realise that until all tax and welfare comes under control of Holyrood there is prcious little that can be done apart from tinkering round the edges. And this control of tax and welfare will only come with Independence.
On the wider aspects of the Tory campaign I was disgusted by Davidson very cleverly and very covertly druming-up the union flag waving OO support, even to having a ‘Carson’ in the SW!!!
Auld Rock
Think someone should tell the Tories that they lost. Seem to think they’ve won,but they lost.
The main stumbling block on the road to independence was the British Labour Party in Scotland. They have now been dealt with.
Having the Ruth Party as the real opposition is a dream.
The only part I hope Stu is not wholly correct about is DodgyDavidson and her ‘strengthened position’. By 6.00am Friday she was already laying the ground for avoiding having to face Sturgeon on Tory opposition to Free Prescriptions, Tuition Fees etc. She was gibbering about working in Committees to reform “bad laws” which is code for behind closed doors and not on the Floor of the Chamber.
There are no Red Tories now. They are all exposed for what they were, Tories. And Tories, delivering for Cameron’s Nasties and the WM Cesspit are the enemy. The greatest of all of these in Scotland is his puppet Davidson acting as the ‘nice’ face for the likes of Sir Edward Mountain. It needs to be hammered home over and over and over that Davidson is the public face of the Tory establishment and must be made to defend UK Tory Policies.
Papadox lol that’s cheered me up thanks! Rennie and Ruth the last defenders of the Union! Jeez..it’s a scoosh! Immature wee schoolboy and the class prefect schoolgirl bully!
What I can’t understand is why the Lib Dems have such a foothold in Orkney and the Shetlands? What’s wrong with the water supply up there?
@Anagach – seats in proportion to %vote
True in this case, but not if e.g. there were larger majorities int the FPTP wins.
A pro Indyref Region only party would gather the region votes and some seats and maintain the pro Indyref majority and the “get out” option if Westminster (we’re outvoted 10:1 there) policy is not in our interest
@ panda paws : “Secondly I think it will be a close remain vote in June – but wonder what will happen if England and perhaps Wales votes out but is kept in by the vote in Scotland? Will they throw us out the union – probably not? But the anti-Scottish rhetoric will ramp up”
Ramp up? It won’t be rhetoric if that happens it’ll be pure poison for those of us living in England. “Rhetoric” was what happened at the last election when the tories deployed the “don’t let these jock bastards in” card.
The English establishment is basically fucked if England doesn’t vote to remain.
Every other scenario will* result in the accelerated fragmentation of the UK or the probable destruction of the Tory party. Northern Ireland can’t survive without EU cash which has been paid since the Good Friday agreement & Sinn Feinn have already said there will be a referendum on unification if Brexit occurs. Pretty sure they don’t give a fuck whether Cameron says its OK or not 🙂
However, having lived in the midlands for 27 years (dear gods, that long) I am pretty convinced that England will vote to leave the EU. They’ve had literally decades of the English press shouting nothing but “Europe BAAAAD!” so Project Fear 2 isn’t having the same effect as PF1 did on indyref1. It’ll come down to who gets the vote out on the day. If my (English) kids are anything to go by then the Remain campaign is in deep shit because they are totally disengaged with politics and unlikely to remember to vote.
*assuming the SNP have the guts to call indyref2 if England votes to leave the EU & drags Scotland, Wales & NI with it.
‘but if the rest of the UK does vote to leave the EU next month, it may yet be a day that supporters of independence will come to rue for a lifetime.’
Can someone help please? I don’t understand the above.
‘It remains this site’s view that last night’s result takes independence off the table for at least five years.’
Does this mean that Wings will be closing up shop for the next five years?
But it won’t be long now before one of us SNP + SNP brigade will post that thank goodness the SNP didn’t get an overall majority and this is better. I can imagine their reasoning.
1). The SNP have been seen by many as far too arrogant for the boots for a long time now. They don’t listen, and they don’t even bother replying to their own members.
2). Scotland definitely isn’t a one-party state, it’s SNP and Tory basically. You’re either one, or the other. Hehehe. I admit that’s cheating.
3). If the SNP try to get support in Holyrood for a Referendum Bill and don’t get it, it will be like 2007-2011 when the other parties denied democracy and were therefore labelled as anti-democratic. Roll on 2021.
4). If the SNP call for Indy Ref 2 and Westminster denies it, that will hack a lot of people off, and make 2021 a walkover for the SNP in the elections.
5). The SNP can now put Independence and Indy Ref 2 firmly back in their manifesto and keep it there including in 2021. They no longer have to play the balance between YES supporters and NO-voting SNP supporters. They can talk up Independence as much as they like. No more pussy-footering around in case of scaring off the 14% of No voting SNP voters.
6). Thinking about all that, I think it increases the chance of Indy Ref 2 being called for before 2021.
Thank goodness we didn’t get an overall majority SNP Government 🙂
#Dair @ 2:37 pm
You comparing two different sets of voters rolls
Something like 10 million voters dropped off voter rolls across the U.K.following the change in the law.
The change in the law is to prevent fraud.
For that reason alone, perhaps there should be a second referendum to find out if Better Together can achieve the same result with the new voter rolls?
Ruby,
Whilst in the EU we can claim our Sovereignty as our right and have the European courts decide. They would definitely follow the law and agree that the Scottish people are indeed soverign and entitled to decide our own future.
If we leave the EU the court of last resort for such an issue would be the Supreme Court in London. Do you think they would agree with the Scottish people.? Referendum off the table—– permanently.
Five years gives the independence movement time to take advantage of the demographic change and acccording to most statistics the blue rinse brigade are likely to belong to unionist parties.
For those who accussed Nicola of going too easy on Indyref 2 during the campaign, I would say had she done so, the SNP would have lost the entire NE region on Thursday. Remember most of the “traditional SNP areas are also the strongest NO areas. I think the incumbency and the respect for some of the SNP big hitters probably saved the day, but make no mistake, a tory momentum was building (good job they ran out of time). The yoons are fighting back and the tories are back in town. It’s a terrifying prospect, but Nicola will sort them out.
And as for those clever people who assured us that another SNP majority was a foregone conclusion: Pah!
Your Main Article Wings is EXACTLY why I come into Wings as often as time/work/study permits.
You cut out all the froth.I like it! 🙂
Straight to the point.
“The most probable outcome of the Greens’ situation will be an increase in bitterness and disunity among the various factions of the Yes movement”
Only if people let it, that’s exactly what the Unionist establishment would love to see. After 4 years of an Indy campaign which hasn’t even stopped yet, and is now enetering the final winning phase, are any of us going to roll over, play dead, and let the Unionists win and tickle our tummies?
You’re a much bigger man than that Stuart. Go out, get pissed as a fart, come back Monday refreshed ready for the new battle.
Importance of Davidson being directly elected in a constituency “cannot be underestimated”. You mean “cannot be overestimated”, surely.
Apologies for pedantry.
But for the independence movement the SNP leads, Thursday was a bad day. By no means fatal, and it may be that delaying a second referendum will be the best thing in the long run, but if the rest of the UK does vote to leave the EU next month, it may yet be a day that supporters of independence will come to rue for a lifetime.
Mmmm. I was thinking that, but I’m not so sure. It would always have been a struggle to get indyref2 following a Brexit vote, and this may not have made it significantly harder. The SNP vote was up a lot on 2011 with that option in the manifesto, and it was only the vagaries of the AMS system that caused the seats won to be fewer.
Nicola could well claim a mandate on that basis, added to the Westminster result. If the Greens stood against it, it would be suicidal as regards their own support. They do have a face-saver – they could claim the 1M SNP votes as their 1M petition if they were minded to go for it.
So, if Brexit happens and Nicola judges the mood is still not favourable to indyref2, she has an escape clause in the lack of an overall majority (and we’ll soon find out that the Greens are to blame for that), and lack of Green commitment. On the other hand if she feels that the mood is favourable, she can claim the mandate in the increased SNP vote and dare the Greens to oppose her.
Interesting times.
Vestas,
I think it likely that England will vote out. Mainly because successive governments have always taken the credit to themselves for popular things (Tony Blair – minimum wage) whilst blaming the EU for anything they don’t like.
It makes it very hard to make a positive case without admitting that they have been dishonest in the past.
The other point of course is that the Greens are now a virtually total irrelevance in the context of normal parliamentary votes. The only way the SNP can be defeated is if ALL the other parties vote against them together. Con/Lab/Lib combined aren’t enough. The Greens can’t defeat the SNP by abstaining, they can only do it by getting completely into bed with the three unionist parties and voting with them.
Nicola can do what she likes, within quite a wide definition of reason, and there’s bugger-all to stop her in realpolitik terms.
Bob Mack
Cheers thanks for the information.
Ach perhaps we should all just give up and resign ourselves to the fact that we are fucked!
In the meantime I looking forward to watching ‘Miss Trunchbull of the ‘Shut Up about Fucking Independence Party’ getting a hard time.
link to tinyurl.com
I think the greens can be a massive boost to the wider YES movement not the thorn in the side described in the article.
As I have been saying since 2014 the yes campaign was not only SNP. This election, for me, was not about independence within 5 years but the case builder for a future ref after 2021. Now with 63 SNP msps plus the greens we have a pro Indy majority IF we ever need to call upon it (brexit)
The ground work has not been done. Speak to many a soft no and almost every one will back no again. We as a movement got the best result possible. One which takes the heat off Nicola and allows us to continue to build and the greens are as much a part as the SNP.
I also hope Labour takes a neutral or pro Indy stance in coming years because like it or not their re alignment could be the extra 15% to get us over the line in 2021.
The SNP is right not to deal formally with the Greens. The SNP will play it cute. Let Ruthie and her rabid britnats bring independence ever closer with their SNPbaaaad/never indyref refrain. Eagerly helped by the bbc of course.
I remember reading a few articles on social media and MSM before and after the referendum which suggested that true Brits should sit back and watch with glee, the Yes movement’s destruction from within. Over the course of days i feel that point is being realised. Folk should realise that many potential yessers will be put off by this in-fighting. We must bear in mind the need for unity and above all else remind ourselves that the objective here is independence.
Thankfully the situation in Scotland has cleared. It’s now pro-indy versus anti-indy. I couldn’t care less which party a pro-indy voter belongs to, if you’re genuinely pro-indy that’s good enough for me.
The SNP may have no choice but to work with the Tories to get through some policies.
Greens seem to be against anything that could promote business, and Labour will probably still vote against the SNP on pretty much everything just because that is what they do.
As the largest party by far, SNP still has the numbers and the authority to retain their majorities and convenerships of important committees.
The SNP may,at some time over the next 5 years,want to bring forward a bill for a referendum.They won’t need the support of the Greens to get it through.They will only need the Greens to refrain from voting against it.
Davidson will try mention indy or referendum every chance she gets, as usual. She will jump up and down, and stamp her wee feet inside her comfortable shoes, she will preach, demand and patronise till she is blue in the face.
Do you know what she will achieve ?
Nothing.
She will be as meaningless as dugdale was in opposition. Dugdale will probably be relieved not to have as many put downs delivered at her now.
Does Wullie even get a question now ???
@Morag
Yes. The maths are simple. SNP 63. Con 31 + Lab 24 + Lib 5 = 60. For the SNP to lose, the Greens would have to vote AGAINST, and woe and betide them if it’s something critical to Independence. They’d be finished next election, 0 MSPs.
Even if the SNP do have to provide the Presiding Officer, it’s SNP 62, CON + Lab + Lib 60. Small majority, but a majority all the same.
OT
Owen Jones has written a good piece in the Guardian, about not forgiving and forgetting the Zac Goldsmith ‘soaked in racism’ campaign. Whilst he blames Goldsmith for peddling the muck, he is clear the orders came from No 10.
He also mentions it was a rerun of the Unions Project Fear in Scotland in 2014, as well as their vilification of Miliband last year.
Of course Cowgirl adopted the strategy to win unionists, it works for them.
I stumbled on 2 photographs earlier- links attached below,
and I must ask if Wee Ruth Krankie’s Mum has every holidayed in North Korea?
She and half brother Kim Jung-Un have been rumbled.
Not only look a likes but both with the same policies of
turning the land of their birth into wastelands and were a little starvation can be called Character building.
Look for your selves. Even have the same barber!
link to tse1.mm.bing.net
link to tse1.mm.bing.net
Looks like David Cameron has met Wee Ruth Krankie’s Mum too?
link to tse1.mm.bing.net
@ cearc
Its really not the governments which have made the English population xenophobic, its the press. The BBC have always played a part in that.
It is really quite hard to describe to people living in Scotland how xenophobic England is.
Some of it is in a way justified as places like Leicester (where I live) got swamped with eastern Europeans in 2003 to the extent that kids (primary) education went down the toilet due to language issues. Its not as bad now but that is little consolation if you were affected by it and many were.
In Leicester (only city in the UK to be majority non-white/non-christian) you can find a clear majority amongst first/second generation Indians/Pakistanis “immigrants” to halt EU immigration. Not Indian sub-continent immigration, just EU.
As an aside – if you’re in England & have ever seen anyone who isn’t white buying the Daily Mail then I’d like to hear about it 😀
“They do have a face-saver – they could claim the 1M SNP votes as their 1M petition if they were minded to go for it.”
It would be helpful for the Green’s indy credibility if their new MSPs stated that now.
The time might not be right for a second referendum within the next 5 years anyway, but the threat of holding one helps to protect Scotland to a degree.
If Holyrood is seen as impotent then Westminster can treat us with contempt.
I have a wee question. In future SG elections should/could you only be able to vote if you have a Scottish tax code? Would that flush out those that dabble in our politics when it suits them, but have an allegiance elsewhere. I’m thinking of armed forces and oil workers. I’m certainly not trying to whip up any ‘racism’ scenario but I’m sick to death of people who live here and screw us over just because they can.
I think that Westmonster have tactically placed ‘people’ in our wee country. The conservative party Scottish ‘overseer’ is ex her majesty’s secret service. That in itself sets off klaxtons in my head.
These people have been infiltrating countries for centuries, why should we think that they aren’t working in our SG. Have I lost my mind in being so suspicious of what Ruthie and co got up to during their ‘campaign’ of unity. Look to Ireland for example. Secret service worked alongside the Irish being their friend.
I’m very happy to have Nicola back in our Parliament. I just hate the idea of so many tories being in it. At least we and the rest of the country will see it is union v independence and as others have said Ruth the mooth has to now defend her party’s austerity cuts in our part of the better the gether farce partnership.
Good blog Stu very honest reporting once again.
Said it yesterday, but I’ll say it again. It takes 65 votes to hold a referendum but it takes changing the minds of a quarter million people to actually win it.
We can chisel away at that total piecemeal, with a wee lift here and there over Europe, never being sure when we’ve done enough, or we can put the issue beyond doubt and move people over to YES in hordes. All we need is equitable access to their televisions to present our case and a credible presentation to persuade them.
The only issue that can change the game to such a great extent that we can think realistically about a second referendum in the short term which we can actually win, is a decisive Scottish victory in the Battle of Broadcasting.
I avoided commenting yesterday because I got the sense that feelings were running high. I’m not here to annoy anyone but it seems to me that nobody here or elsewhere has adequately described what took place on Thursday.
I think it is clear that after many years of turmoil in Scotland’s political markets, Thursday in many ways represented a sort of ‘correction’.
Our stocks in Independence Inc. were hit but not too badly. If you look at those that were hit badly, you will find that they all had one thing in common.
A sort of bubble developed in Scotland in the run-up to the 2014 referendum and I think Thursday was to that bubble what the credit crunch was to banking. In this case, though, the bubble was filled with hot radical left-wing air.
Radical left-wing ideas nowadays play the same part in politics that sub-prime loans play in finance. We all want to see the poor get ahead and buy themselves nice houses etc., but that’s got to be done in a sustainable and responsible way that doesn’t damage the wider economy.
Thursday, then, was a correction and all parties who pandered to and embraced radical left wing ideology in their policy commitments were hit to varying degrees.
Labour, being one of the biggest parties of the left and highly exposed to sub-prime politics, got hit hardest. In this sense they were to Thursday what Lehman Brothers were to the Credit Crunch. If they were a bank they’d be filing for bankruptcy without any choice.
Smaller and more radical parties of the left who had nothing but sub-prime policies on their books were straight-forwardly wiped out completely. We are of course talking about RISE and the others.
The Greens survived because they had some diversity in their portfolio but, as Rev. points out above, they were hit too. Most people who know the Greens know that they aren’t sincerely committed to radical socialism and it’s probably ironic that it was their lack of sincerity that saved them.
At the other end of the free market of ideas, we can see that The Tories came through the crunch rather better off. That’s as you would expect but it doesn’t mean the SNP/Independence Movement needs to move to the right of the spectrum; market forces want the SNP in the centre ground where most civilised people live and think.
There’s no place for radical and irrational ideologies at this end of history. We learned in the past that they lead to division, wars, and wholesale strife.
Nationalism in its simplest form, like communism, fascism, and the rest, is on natural selection’s hit list and will soon be consigned to history’s land-fill of bad ideas with the others.
But we all know, even if others don’t, that our brand of Scottish Nationalism is grounded in a harmless and healthy desire for self determination, liberal democracy, and free markets.
I have no objection to radicals being on the ship with us and I’m happy to let them express their views, but if there’s one lesson we should take from Thursday it’s that they shouldn’t be let anywhere near the rudder.
Ha ha. The Liberal Democrats.
Kez looks suicidal.
The pressure is on the Greens. Never thought of it like that. Thanks Rev.
Its not over. Just delayed.
Nationalism/Indepedence v Toryism/Unionism. I can see the pressure also being on Ruth. This is going to hurt her more than us long term.
@ SheenaJ @ 1:49pm …….
Spot on Sheena.
Let’s all move on United and focus, focus our energies, on our True enemies and on surmounting the obstacles to Independence … the corrupt, biased media, the Tories and the means of getting the Truth out there.
Negativity, back-stabbing, in-fighting and playing the blame game is counterproductive, in fact totally destructive, in relation to our cause. More than anything this type of devisive behaviour is exactly what the Unionists want to see happen and if it continues they’ll use it to great effect.
Back on form today Stu after your post-election hangover and doing what you do best – employing facts rather than opinions and insightful analysis rather than emotion in support of your arguments. Question is this – can you keep it going for five more years?
Breeks says:
7 May, 2016 at 4:11 pm
Said it yesterday, but I’ll say it again. It takes 65 votes to hold a referendum but it takes changing the minds of a quarter million people to actually win it.
Ruby replies
I agree before worrying about a referendum all focus should be on how to get NO voters to vote YES.
It would probably also be better to stop focusing on the BBC & the media and just figure out other ways of communicating with NO voters.
‘Yes. The maths are simple. SNP 63. Con 31 + Lab 24 + Lib 5 = 60. For the SNP to lose, the Greens would have to vote AGAINST, and woe and betide them if it’s something critical to Independence. They’d be finished next election, 0 MSPs.
Even if the SNP do have to provide the Presiding Officer, it’s SNP 62, CON + Lab + Lib 60. Small majority, but a majority all the same.’
That’s the most important point regarding this. This is why I’m baffled at nationalists who are despondent about this result and Tories (less baffled to be fair) who seem to think they’ve won-beyond their obvious elation at finishing in front of Labour.
Far UKOK right have lots of fun with the result. Scotch cringer, one more Ligger Neil tory BBC Politics gimp, not a Green man either takes a Guardian piddle over it all-
link to capx.co
Sturgeon bad and no more referendum for vile seps
“Her only hope would be be to patch something squalid together with the dreadful Patrick Harvie of the Greens, which would be a constitutional outrage and make the SNP a laughing stock.”
A constitutional outrage! This cringer’s even added “so there.”
He didn’t but he should.
News just in
The Ruth Davidson NO to another referendum party have already approached the (Region No9) Scottish Labour party to formalise an “Alliance” for Unionism to fight the SNP
I’ll put up the first million squid the answer which hasn’t been given yet, will be…….. No Effin Way!! Coz even Kezia’s not THAT stupid
It’s all turning into Star wars now the Alliance and the Rebel forces, Davidson’s wee round head’s going to explode at all the power she’s not going to have
Light Sabres at the ready Jedi Knights and Knightesses
@Kenny
Now you’ve done it, you’ve thrown away the old box Scottish Politics was in.
It’s no longer from the media “what does Dugdale / MacIntosh / Murphy / Douglas Alexander / Tom Harris / Brian Wilson / Alistair Darling or even Ian Murray, have to say”. They’re as relevant as Rennie was. They’re history, yesterday’s people. Who cares what they think?
Unless Labour can reinvent itself, and who really cares if it does or not, they went from 56 MSPs in 1999, 50 in 2003, 46 in 2007, 37 in 2001, to 24 in 2016. At that rate they’ll be about 15 in 2021, a third place party if that, could be beaten by the Greens if they perform well over the next 5 years.
But it’s not the second placed Tories Tories that held back Scotland from Independence, they didn’t even manage to hold back Scotland from Devolution in 1997. It’s Labour, and with 1 MP and just 24 MSPs and falling, they’re dodo, a minority party with minority people.
Sorry for duplicate comment – mistakenly posted this in “The Drop.”
Didn’t Blair McDougall admit that if “Better Together” had focused on making the case for the union, Yes would have won the referendum?
Making the case for the union is what the tank commander has led everyone to expect from her, so, bring it on, bullrider. I’ll be interested to hear how much applause you get from the labour members.
Stu: At the beginning of your article you say that the SNP could probably wriggle through whatever legislation they want one way or another; near the end you imply that the Greens would sink any push for a new referendum. I know what you mean, but is there not a contradiction there?
Moreover, the Greens are unlikely to vote against such a motion. They might abstain, but that would already tip the balance in parliament and put a coherent SNP block in the majority.
If a national consensus on independence is to grow over time, it can’t be the hobby horse of only one party. Ideally, there must be a home for independistas from the entire political spectrum, and that is going to happen only if we have a strong independence-minded party either to the left or the right of the SNP. (IMHO preferably to the left.)
I am not going to waste my time slagging off the voting system. I view that as a cop out quite frankly. The SNP won a majority in 2011. They could have won another this time around as well despite the voting system.
I am probably repeating myself here from yesterday. In 2011 I was quite frankly flabbergasted that we took Aberdeenshire West, Edinburgh West and North East Fife in 2011 considering the general social and economic demographics of those constituencies.
I wasn’t surprised that those were retaken by the enemy Yoons. There would still have been a majority if SNP had taken Dumbarton West and held Edinburgh Central. I am still disgusted at the results in those two constituencies.
We have to face the fact that if more Yes voters had been enthused and encouraged to turn out in those two seats then there would still have been an SNP majority. The question as to why many Yes voters sat on their hands and didn’t vote at all needs to be addressed.
It is also glib to say that the Yoon Press and Media did all it could to foster complacency and having many think it was in the bag and took an SNP majority for granted. You would have thought that the Yes voters would have been immune to such blatant Yoon propaganda. We have to conclude that they weren’t.
I believe a higher turn out would have benefitted both the SNP and Greens especially on the lists and reduced the Yoon final seat numbers. For me the turn out was disappointingly lower than I had hoped to see.
It presents a dilemma for next Years Council Elections where it will be significantly harder to rid us of the Yoons because of the even more deplorable STV voting system which is way less proportional than the System used for Holyrood. I believe the last Council elections were an utter disaster for the Yes movement in that they ended up wit the most of them under Yoon control.
Most of those Council were a constant source of Yoon propaganda spewed out of the Brit Nat Press and Media and a constant source of unreasonable obstructionism to several SG policies. I see history repeating itself unfortunately unless something can be done to counter the Yoon agencies of apathy spreading. You can bet the Yoons will use those Elections next year as a means to not just whack the SNP with but the whole Yes movement again and again.
@NeoconNat
You’re funny.
Any chance you could label your postings to make it easier for us? You could choose from:
1). Ad Hominem – where you try to single out some other poster for some sort of silly attack
2). Troll – where you’re just having a laugh
3). Sensible – where you’re hoping to make a valid point.
Your last posting would have been labelled “Sensible”, whether I or others would agree with it or not.
Great article, Rev. However, I agree with lots of folk here that Ruthy is about to have a much more difficult time than she has ever faced before. Everyone benefits from stronger opposition. It makes you raise your game. I have every confidence in Nicola. Now we are about to see just how good her game is. She is a fantastic politician. Watch out Ruthy!
“The most probable outcome of the Greens’ situation will be an increase in bitterness and disunity among the various factions of the Yes movement.”
There is absolutely no need for this to be the case, but what you write here is almost designed to achieve just that.
I continue to appreciate the sharp critical mind you bring to bear on the powers we are all up against, but continue to be appalled by the divisiveness you (together with many of those on the Yes side you love to hate) bring to our movement for independence.
Feel free to ignore or castigate this response, I still appreciate the good work you do and deplore the self-defeating lines you also espouse.
At no point does just one more of the massed ranks of toryboys Massie here say out loud, Ruth won because Green’s took 4000+ Edinburgh votes from somewhere. Why would he.
Daily Heil says Scottish toryboy world roared. This one says its actually a win for “The quiet people of Scotland, those folk whose voices are often hard to hear, have spoken and the message they have sent is that Scotland is not the left-wing country… ”
The quiet roarers of Scotland and The Tory Farce Awakens
link to blogs.spectator.co.uk
Rancid the Graun boosts Green and the new guy too. I cant afford higher council tax or PAYE so its going be murder listening to new guy Wightman rage away at me to pay more, in rancid The Graun.
Suppose it will be quite interesting to know the name of which billionaire owns which big chunk of the Highlands. One’s called Queen Elizabeth II, just to save them time.
Libby Brooks ?@libby_brooks May 6 Edinburgh, Scotland
Patrick Harvie: Conservative victory not just about their appeal re Union but also Labour’s failure to present self as progressive force
Libby Brooks ?@libby_brooks May 6 Edinburgh, Scotland
New Green Msp Andy Wightman says local democracy will be big theme of next parliament; room to push on council tax & urban land reform
@Richardinho
We, many of us, set ourselves up to expect an SNP overall majority, to be able to demand Indy Ref 2 whenever we wanted to. We didn’t get that so we’re all savage, that’s all.
It’ll pass, and be back to business as usual.
I think though that those who believed the media hype about “SNP majority guaranteed” will realise that the media lies, and that’s not us aware activisists, it’s the ordinary voting public.
Another nail in the coffin of the BBC and MSM.
Great article by Derek Bateman ….
”I’ve just realised after 24 hours of media consumption that Ruth Davidson and the Tories won the election. I got my sums all wrong. I thought 63 was more than 31 and that if you got fewer seats you actually lost the election. Nowadays it doesn’t work that way. If you’re really popular with the media and fit the newspaper proprietor’s agenda, you get to win regardless. Must try to keep up.
Not only that but judging from some shouty comments from Ruth Davidson, she’s now running the country and demanding a promise not to stage a referendum. That’s a referendum on independence, of course….
If you asked a Nationalist strategist for his dream scenario to make the case of independence, he’d pray for a Tory opposition. This is the perfect ground….
Not only did the SNP win the election, they are now in a more promising position, able to pick and choose who to deal with on which issues.
Meanwhile their main opponent is a sitting duck.”
link to derekbateman.scot
A good article Stuart. I think basically the three most important parties in the next parliament are the SNP, the Tories, and the Scottish Greens in that order. The Liberal Democrats and Scottish Labour look like they are going to be side-lined and without much if any relevance. If they do not do decide to do something major in regards to the constitution, then they would as well just turn up at Holyrood, and falling asleep for the next 5 years.
I disagree that the Greens are not going to be important. With the election of Andy Wightman, potentially he could have a larger role than Patrick Harvie in the next parliament. With the Scum as the official opposition to the SNP now, there really is no excuse for the latter not to pass radical and far reaching land reform. The large landowners are never going to support independence, and it would enrage the Tories and the right wing MSM in Scotland and the UK as well, imagine former SSP comrade and apparent neo-conservative, Tomkins and co going ballistic over the likes of poor wee Paul Dacre, and the Duke of Buccleuch? This is the best chance the SNP are probably ever going to get for serious land reform. The Greens will support them, and Scottish Labour should be willing to support it as well, so legislation is virtually assured. The only potential problem I can think of is that SNP MSPs representing rural areas might not be keen on it, as Aileen McLeod lost her seat, and she was the minister responsible for the last Reform Act this year.
If the SNP are as smart as I would like too think they are, they should use their status as a minority government, and with Andy Wightman/Greens in particular as political cover, for some serious GIRFUY Tories/landowners/MSM land reform. Remember what the above did in the independence referendum? As they say revenge is a dish best served cold! 😀 😀
I am going to reserve judgement until two things have happened. One is the outcome of the Brexit. The other is how committed the Greens are to independence. Who knows they might even push the SNP on indi.
Remember the ship of Theseus. Where the parts of the ship are gradually replaced until the ship is no longer the ship. The SNP were in danger of forgetting their purpose. It’s not to govern a devolved parliament. It’s to get independence.
I know Ken McIntosh lost constituency vote, can any tell me if he got in on the List?
@Dr Jim
Not surprised at this, if you’re not joking about Kez being approached.
I was saying yesterday it was laughable some on here would think Kez might get behind Nicola. If the Dregs party does get behind the SG, it will be with no help or acknowledgment from Nicola, so there is no limelight there.
However, the Slab dregs will be now focused on cashing in their chips. So it’s a 5 year redundancy gig. Up your contacts, get your face seen, maybe cross the floor if your morals are low enough, and your brain too weak for a real job.
They have nothing to lose, they lost their remaining integrity two years ago. Why not jump back in bed?
Big Jock says:
7 May, 2016 at 5:09 pm
“Remember the ship of Theseus. Where the parts of the ship are gradually replaced until the ship is no longer the ship.”
Kind of like the floor brush my mother had for years. Only ever had the shaft changed once and the head changed twice.
She never did realise why we laughed at that.
“…it’s achieved it by positioning itself as a return to the SUP’s openly Loyalist values.”
link to imgur.com
annie says:
7 May, 2016 at 5:11 pm
I know Ken McIntosh lost constituency vote, can any tell me if he got in on the List?
Yes Annie he did get on the list…BIG sigh !!!!
Looking forward to what will happen next my prediction will be a fragmenting of the media in Scotland. I mean now that labour is fuxed are the likes of STV, daily record and the other old pals of labour really gonna jump ship to the tories and sit there defending Westminster? The heart of Scottish thinking IS justice and fairness and compassion. There are a lot of media outlets that need to either now back the people up or the Westminster establishment – it was easy for them when labour was still around, it allowed them to appear for the people but that mask is now not an option for them anymore. For alot of the aforementioned newspapers and TV stations it’s time to put up or shut up.
Let’s also remember, that at FMQ’s it will be Davdison leading the show. In the past she often tag teamed with Dugdale, but I think there is little chance of that now. It really will be quite interesting to watch, as Tory Ruth Davidson, is made to listen to the evil handiwork of her Tory chums in London, voer, and over again.
Davidson will forever be on the defensive.
I think others are correct, that essentially Scottish politics has firmly shifted into pro and anti independence. Labour will continue dying because they are totally on the wrong side. They backed the wrong horse in the referendum, and they are still doing it now. Defeat after defeat after defeat for Labour, yet they still can’t see the big independence elephant in the room.
Maybe Labour will sniff the coffee and wake up sometime. Meanwhile with their obsessive devotion to London colonial rule, they are on a downward slop to irrelevance.
Remember what the above did in the independence referendum? As they say revenge is a dish best served cold!”
What his plan for the Paul Dacre, and the Duke of Buccleuch types of this tory world though?
Ruth McThatcher will save them all from what, nationalise the shooting estates, ban hunting and shooting at Balmoral?
Please may we have ref 2 Mr Green Wightman? No. You’re not Green enough and theretofore cant be independent.
May aswell ask Ruth McThatcher instead
Change of title
link to caltonjock.com
Indyref2, I’m glad you agree my analysis was sensible and correct.
You’d struggle to find an example of me attacking anyone except in self-defence. Even then I ignore most attacks.
Most on the looney left find my views painfully obnoxious which frees me from the burden of needing to dedicate any effort or time on insulting them.
Tommy Sheridan should be brought into the SNP as a figurehead of some sort representing the soul of the party or something; he deserves that and I regard him as a dying breed of sincere conviction politicians. I disagree with his politics but I respect him. From a PR slant, it would be good to have him there as we moved to the centre ground.
Everything about RISE on the other hand struck me as the sort of synthetic junk you’d expect from kids who spent too much time on iPads. Actually their whole campaign had the feel of an App that was thrown together about it. On Thursday they were uninstalled.
There is a lot of great insightful posts on here today, but all I really want to say is this. I don’t think there is anyone that can do what the Rev does better than he can.
I honestly don’t know what I would do without him.
Can someone check that Eleanor Bradford is ok?
Given Ruth can’t really ask questions on the NHS at FMQs considering what Hunt has done to NHS England that means there’s no longer a need for Eleanor’s ‘skills’ at BBC Scotland
We are now fighting an opposition we will be much more comfortable with.Deriding the Tories has always come easily and will make Scottish politics an easier and more enjoyable task.
We must remember the demise of slab at council level is our first priority then the march to Independance is a clear path.If the Scottish people want austerity cuts prescription charges uni fees disabled cuts then I give fucking up.
As the quiet Scottish tories roar, Robert Gailbraith hath spake onto the vile separatists of her Scotland region. One is not amused or maybe one is, perhaps, Gailbraith’s such a lousy riter of books n shit, its hard to tell really
J.K. Rowling ?@jk_rowling 4h4 hours ago
I just spat out tea. “Relentless online attacks seem to be making No voters band together.” “More insults, stat!”
@NeoconNat
Tommy Sheridan should be brought into the SNP as a figurehead of some sort representing the soul of the party or something; he deserves that and I regard him as a dying breed of sincere conviction politicians. I disagree with his politics but I respect him. From a PR slant, it would be good to have him there as we moved to the centre ground.
This is never going to happen nor should it. The SNP have won power from 2007 onwards from a centrist position. It has been gradual almost imperceptible improvement and progress. I am more left wing, but I greatly appreciate and respect the progress that has been made towards independence in less than a decade. I do not understand why some people still regard Tommy Sheridan so highly.
Future Lord Tomkins, Ljubljana West ( c ) got thrashed in Anniesland Thursday but RT’s another SNP peaked thing in The Times, its a letter to the Times, what he wrote.
Have to get hand it to the toryboys, theyve got some neck,
Adam Tomkins Retweeted
David Jack ?@DJack_Journo 7h7 hours ago
Peak SNP. Via. @timesletters
Letter says SNP bad by the way.
I quite miss old AliesAlbas:D
Maybe Indy is off the table for the next five years, but that doesn’t have to mean we can’t make progress.
We can each spend that time educating others. The politicians can spend that time agitating for more powers. The biggest win I could see would be broadcasting.
I don’t want to wait another five years, but I’ve waited a lot longer than that already, and my motivation for Indy is for my kids and future generations.
Keep positive people, and let’s no fight within the yes movement.
@ muttley79 good post. In fact it is probable that the large landowners played a role in ensuring the Tory wins in rural areas with the intention of removing the SNP majority. But they overlooked the Greens and must be horrified to find Andy Wightman sitting in Holyrood sharpening his pencils.
Aileen McLeod was far too timid with Land Reform. That’s why the SNP conference last year threw out the wishy-washy proposals and demanded real change. Hence Nicola’s recent commitment to setting up a register of land owners. You need to know who owns it before you can tax it.
“Mugabe style land grab,” wail the big estate owners, Antigua, St Kitts, Seychelles and BVI.
I heard the football commentator saying that the rise of Leicester City FC coincided with the reburial of Richard III’s bones in the city cathedral… I wonder whose bones Slab would have to rebury to get the same effect..
In the long run Indy ref 2 being delayed might be a blessing.
I have long held the opinion that Salmond was bounced into Indy
ref 1 because of the majority. We need to do what we have always
done work hard to persuade the 55 that the skies won’t fall in if we dared to be an independent nation. Govern wisely and watch while Ruthie tries to persuade Scots that nasty Dave has nothiing
to do with her
@msean
Shhhh! Don’t tell ’em.
The longer they are deluded the better.
Do you think the SNP would be justified in completely ignoring, deriding and ridiculing the Tories just as happens to SNP members in Westminster?
Just sayin’..
@Capella
Aileen McLeod was far too timid with Land Reform. That’s why the SNP conference last year threw out the wishy-washy proposals and demanded real change. Hence Nicola’s recent commitment to setting up a register of land owners. You need to know who owns it before you can tax it.
I am not sure that is fair on Aileen McLeod. She was the minster responsible, but may very well have been under pressure/guided by others, i.e. the SNP leadership. I have no idea what happened in regards to land reform last term at Holyrood, but I would not assume it was down to Aileen McLeod. I think that might be an unfair assumption to make. That is all in the past now anyway.
“””Big Jock says:
7 May, 2016 at 5:09
The SNP were in danger of forgetting their purpose. It’s not to govern a devolved parliament. It’s to get independence.””
Actually you are wrong. Their purpose is to do both, govern and achieve independence and doing the former well is important to achieving the ultimate goal of independence.
People cannot put their lives on hold until Independence comes. They need healthcare and people need education for their children, and people need jobs and infrastructure that allows them to go about their business.
An independent Scotland will need a healthy, educated population and employment if it is to get off to the best possible start. The SNP in Government has shown it can deliver on many of these but in delivering has also shown that much more could be done if independent of the Union.
They must continue to do so if independence is to be achieved.
People cannot put their lives on hold waiting for that day. Therefore the SNP has to govern for the people and their lives today as well as plan for the future.
If anyone watched Bird interviewing Swinney last night. The BBC in Scotland will not change their Snp bad theme.
Her opening line Was can’t you just drop independence. Said with a straight face almost pleading. Then we’ll the education system is a mess and so is the NHS. Outright lies. But a journalist giving personal opinion and acting as if for the opposition. They don’t even kid themselves now.
Expect BBC to switch allegiance to Ruth now. It’s already happened. They spent hours pouring over a party that got thumped to 22% on a 52% turnout.
A couple of images from the count at Glenrothes: Roger Mullin, MP, sitting upstairs with the media, spinning gracefully for the SNP, while down below, Willie Rennie sat alone (with his wife?) in a deserted staff canteen, looking like he’d just had a rectal probe. He doesn’t grin off camera.
Last time I saw him was at the Burntisland Highland Games. He was given a decent enough handicap to finish second in his race.
One of the advantages enjoyed by Tory voters in Scotland is being exempt from at least some of the worst effects of Tory policies. Vote Tory to save the Union, knowing that the SNP Government will save your free prescriptions, personal care, tuition fees etc.
Wonder how assertive Ruth will be in promoting head office policies for Scotland ?
A statement from the Labour Party…
link to petewishart.wordpress.com
@ muttley79 re Aileen McLeod. Yes she will have been under pressure from some of the leadership, I don’t doubt that. The landowning lobby with their expensive barristers will also have piled on the pressure.
However, I was at the conference when she presented her proposals and shared the disappointment felt by the members.
Water under the bridge now as you say.
All the rejected and failed SLAB politicians have been squeezed into Holyrood on the list, cause SLAB know they are winners, it’s just the daft voters are to stupid to appreciate their talents. Then again they probably know where all the bodies are buried. Pay them off with a place at the trough. It’s the SLAB way don’t you know.
Now for buffalo girl and the tollies this will be like shooting fish in a barrel.
@Big Jock
Seriously Big Jock, you will do your blood pressure the world of good if you stop watching BBC Scotland news. Life is too short to be worrying about Jackie Bird and co say and do, we all know how biased and terrible she is. I stopped watching BBC Scotland years ago, I sometimes still watch the politics show at the weekend, the occasional Question Time, or an election debate but that is generally the sum of my viewing. But Reporting Scotland is execrable, it is the Jackie Bird and Chick Young school of Scottish ‘journalism.’
I guess it will not take long to test the Greens.
If a situation comes up, and it will. If the Greens do not like the idea, and neither do the Tories. Who will they side with?
Imagine if it was the Tories!, they only need to look at the result of Slabs dalliance with them. How would that go down with the SNP,and the rest of Scots who live the dream. What would the consequence for the Greens.
They will need to prove their worth and be genuine with Indy intentions or they will become Lib Dems mark 2.
I think if the greens are genuine then there will be help between both parties to mutual benefit. Harvie needs to think very hard about these sort of issues, rather than swanning around thinking he is kingmaker.
I understand that the SNP has to engage with the BBC (for now) but I think its really important now for them to make it clear that the BBC is a hostile entity.
If – as some are suggesting – its 2021-2023 for indyref2 then the narrative of a hostile “state” broadcaster needs to be established now. The people who still believe the BBC are unlikely to vote Yes and those who are offended by the truth are Yoons at heart anyway.
There’s no use in ignoring the elephant in the room and the BBC are the enemy.
If England votes for Brexit and the SNP asks the Scottish Greens to support the call for a referendum and they refuse, they are toast. There was a huge surge in Green membership after the referendum and they didn’t join because they want everyone to go to work on a bicycle. They joined because they want independence. The SNP need just two more votes for a majority and I could well imagine John Finnie (ex-SNP who left because of their NATO stance not because he stopped supporting indy) and Andy Wightman (who by no stretch of the imagination is a unionist) breaking ranks and defying the Green whip. That’s two more votes for a referendum and that’s your majority right there. The Scottish parliament calls for a referendum and the Westminster parliament refuses =?? constitutional crisis. Hell, we might even get some encouragement from our fair weather friends on the continent. What’s not to like?
Voter apathy appears to have played some part in the election outcome for the SNP.
And that, I think, is the price they paid for their political politeness.
I know that office brings a requirement of public responsibility. Nicola Sturgeon,for example, could not have behaved like Davidson.
But it was a big mistake to presume that the contrast was always to the SNP’s benefit.
Politics can be as much about passion as policy, and the SNP needs to go on the offensive from now.
Treat Ruth’s Rangers the way Westminster has treated the SNP mps.
Constantly point out that at Holyrood Davidson is the irrelevant leader of an irrelevant group who lost the election. Get in their faces, for feck’s sake.
For example, if Davidson really is courting the labour msps, maybe she’s already worried some are thinking of heading in the other direction. And the SNP only need a handful!
And when the media get pissed off with their new darlings being treated like that, get in their face as well.
If you want your people to vote, you have to show them you are up for the fight.
I have been an SNP member for 42 years and know it is an ongoing journey and not a sprint to persuade voters to vote for freedom. The numbers have peaked at just south of 50 % since the referendum even though we increased our national vote by 1.2 % since 2011.
England will vote 65/35 to stay in Europe (I live in Cambridge) and Corbyn /Labour will lose heavily in 2020 to the Tories. The upshot is that if Labour want to get back into power in Scotland they will have to do it via supporting a Constitutional settlement like independence or a federated UK. So lets hang on in there and not get too disillusioned as if we in the SNP continue to be seen as competent then I believe SLAB will turn to supporting a constitutional change as they will see it as the only logical political choice available to them. Its just a shame that REV is right that it will take 5 more years to get us there. I remember standing four times and winning as an SNP student in Yorkshire in the 1970’s and I believe that was down to trust not policy so lets not take our eye of the ball and let us devote the next 5 years to being seen as competent and not backbiting at potential supporters whether its greens or rise or solidarity or SLAB
It suddenly struck me yesterday that Ruth Davidson has in effect now done what she opposed Murdo Fraser for wanting to do when she won the party leadership – a complete remaking of the Scottish Tories as a separate entity: “The Ruth Davidson Unionists” (RDU).
I don’t agree with everything the Rev Stu wrote above (too pessimistic), but having the RDU as the main opposition in Holyrood is a definite boon for indy – SNP opposed by a bunch of loud right-wing loyalist reactionaries. In the course of this new parliament Davidson will surely either be revealed as an “ulsteriser” with her own personal agenda, or exposed as a mere shill for the English Tories.
As for the “Scottish” Labour, they obviously still don’t have even a clue. Lord Falconer was claiming yesterday on Newsnight that their way forward was as a continuing bridge between Scotland and England, ie. more of the same that has brought them to the very pass they are in now. Duh! They might have a hope if they were to form a separate associate party, but even if there were enough of them willing to make the break, the party probably couldn’t afford the loss of English funding that would entail.
Expect to see them eventually joining up again with Tomkins and others on the Tory side to promote a new “Federal UK”.
@Valerie
Ruth’s shoved herself into the position of antagonist and the media will now keep her to pushing that agenda or she’ll look like a failure, her campaign was based on threatening the SNP with the spectre of big brother Cameron telling we Scots to, in her words “Take a hike”
While the FM has been the complete opposite espousing co-operation, consensus, tolerance and all the nice sounding words (while meaning none of it of course) but that’s the mark of a real politician, get the papers and TV to report what you say
Ruth will be forced into being the defender of the faith but actually looking like the bad guy at the same time
My bet is Kezia won’t touch this Alliance deal with a bargepole or the last remnants of the Labour faithful will desert her but they won’t go Tory they’ll go SNP and I think even the Labour party just can’t be that dim
My bet’s on Labour softening it’s hostility to the SNP and recognising the Tories are the enemy of the state, in the hope of rebuilding their party and not making the same glaring mistake they made over the referendum
I wouldn’t even be surprised at a wee bit of the Entente Cordiale breaking out
Just a guess mind you but quite often when the school bully over matches themselves when they look around and their handers are standing a bit further away
Scotlands FM is the real head girl here
Ruthie’s just a cheeky loud mouthed first year asking for a clip round the ear
Have you noticed in all the speculation over what might happen, nobody wonders what Willie Rennie will do, and I think it’s because we all expect he’ll just jump into bed with whoever he thinks is winning at any given moment in time, Willie’s like the wee Nyaff at the back of the gang who shouts stuff out but depends on the leader aff to actually do the fighting
Predictions: Ruth will go too far with her threatening Bigoted British pomposity and fist pumping and our smiling FM will open her up from neck to navel on National TV and Ah cannae wait tae see it
The fight is already won on social media – but that is a false battleground, the day to day natter with folk is what counts.
@Laukat:
Good point 🙂 Seriously a weakness for Ruthie.
However Ruthie was getting back on the list anyway and that was accepted wisdom. To actually have won in the constituency vote just rocketed her profile beyond measure.
A Bigger calibre tank for free and all the stuff in the MSM
The real CMD was not slow to see the opportunity and I am sure funding will flow in from darn Sarf!
That was perhaps the bitterest pill looking back. For 621 votes and a bigger tank…jeez! The rest was OK well done SNP!
@Croompenstein
Aye I heard that tenuous link to the past as well. 🙂
The SNP might stumble upon the real stone of destiny or better still, archaeologists have found the church where William Wallace was made guardian of Scotland. What say that to Richard III ?
link to archive.is
As I said in the early hours Friday it’s all about YES v NO now.
I also said in the early hours, where there was an opportunity to thwart the SNP the unionists were bright enough to forsake policy differences and coalesce effectively.
GOTV worked for them. We split!
My partners son and wife just married both went Green X 2 they know nothing of Scottish history and couldn’t care less, they know nought of politics or how the Scottish voting system works or what policy they liked the best. It’s cool to be green… fair enough!
I asked if their 18 month old daughter might like to grow up in an independent country… blank look! 🙁
We have a tough road ahead and that’s a fact.
Look at the map Unionists V Independence minded. Trident: Oil & Gas I include Orkney & Shetland: and to a lesser extent the Border all be it the blue bit is bigger there.
We are where we are and we’ll carry on.
PS:
Good news! My partners grand-daughter 12 got her nails done today 9 bluey ones and a pinky in yellow with and SNP knot. 🙂
She showed me it a wee while ago. She’s coming on fine
@croompenstein 6.32pm
READ THE LINK TO THIS ARTICLE EVERYBODY
I claim my internet prize of £5 for prediction of the day
@cmd – aye cmd I think Slab would have to dig up oor Keir oot o Cumnock and rebury him in Glesga but somehow I cannae imagine it having the same effect… 😀
The only way to have beaten the system would for Nicola and Patrick Harvie to come to an arrangement pre-vote and agreed between them all green votes on the constituency to vote SNP and for all SNP voters to give their second vote to green party. A green list vote in the hundreds of thousands with no constituency dividers would have seriously lowered torie and labour list MSP’S . Someone posted figures at end yesterdays blog . Somehow don’t think such an arrangement would happen or even be legal with the electoral commission.
Ruth now has to oppose Nicola in Holyrood with the self destroying tories in Westminster making it extremely difficult if not impossible , what she gonna do about Clyde shipyard contracts she will have to defend Westminster decisions on their future or possibly lack of it. If new contracts not authorised soon for navy ships or even cancelled , how she gonna defend that position, she can’t. Unions and a lot of Scotland will go apeshit. MSM could be caught out can’t defend ruthie, their new hero, and please what’s left of their believers.
Well Moothy Ruthie has really stepped into the firing line now! The Yew Choob team (Jock Scot, Janet Scot and me) had a wee meeting today and we’ve decided Ruth is the new Jim Murphy. We’re going to have fun over the next five years! We might take the odd pop at Willie “Pig Fluffer” Rennie too, as a reward for getting a seat of his very own.
Anyone else seen this , Labour about to come out for independence ??? Better late than never if they do.
link to petewishart.wordpress.com
Much is written about converting soft NOs to Yes. This is important.
However, I reckon differential turnout might be just as critical.
At IndyRef, NO rich areas had turnout much higher than YES rich areas.
I just noticed on something the Rev retweeted that Willie Rennie got in because partly Labour collapsed, partly because UKIP didn’t stand (they did in 2011), but mainly because turnout was well up and ~4000 LibDems appeared from nowhere!
Tory and SNP vote stayed the same.
2011 turnout was 50%, 2016 63%.
My guess is, they got NO voters to rally round the most probable Unionist candidate!
In IndyRef2, we MUST get Yes are turnout up to No levels.
I wonder if this comment will make it. It’s a long time since I could post for some reason. I have to admit that what astonished me about this election was the “proportional representation” bit of the list vote. My local area had roughly 140,000 voted for the SNP, 70,000 Conservatives and 70,000 cousins of Kezia Dugdale and maybe about 10,000 or so Greens. So the list votes went three to Labour, three to the tories and two to the Greens. So the vast majority of voters in my area got no SNP representation through the list system. That’s not in any way proportionate and a right slap in the face for those who did the two vote thing. We got nothing for it, it simply just didn’t count. It certainly isn’t proportional representation in any form.
I know there will be no great appetite in Holyrood to change it but surely what we see, with the politicians who fail to get elected simply heading up the lists is not any kind of democratic mandate at all. I’m all for wee Wullie’s moment in the sun but he should really have to choose to be elected or be on a list.
the only way to have beaten the system would for Nicola and Patrick Harvie to come to an arrangement pre-vote and agreed between them all green votes on the constituency to vote SNP and for all SNP voters to give their second vote to green party.
complete havers, go and have a look at the 2015 ge result from orkney&shetland, then go and look at the results from 2016 orkney and shetland. you will see that in both areas all unionist parties on thursday had agreed to back the lib dems, they beat the system, tactically voted to keep out the snp. no public agreement required by anyone and it still happen.
@ Yew Choob lovelies – what gems you are can’t wait xx
@Dr Jim
I’ll believe a statement like that when I hear Jackie Burd; Jackie Baillie; D. Hoversack and Anas Sarwar all say it on radio shortbread at the same time.
The telephone lines between Glasgow ; Edinburgh to London have not had time to be used yet, Scottish’ labour are still too traumatised in North Britain to ask for permission and Real Labour darn Sarf too busy navel gazing about England to be arsed about Dugdale and Rowley.
It’s a way out for them in Scotland but no cigar!
Deputy Deadwood would be sanctioned immediately and taken away in a restraining jacket shurley! 🙂
We would be independent with 18 months if it were to be true and then maybe 60% tops in the vote.
Wee Nicola and the SNP leadership are as sharp as a knife.
I fully expected Nicola to either:
(1) Reach out to the remaining members of the Labour Party to join the SNP to “fight the Tories together” or
(2) Reach out to Dugdale to ask her to vote alongside the SNP on key issues.
Dugdale and the Labour leadership are NOT as sharp as a knife. They will, as always, take the wrong decision and refuse. Dugdale will try to be a “poor man’s Ruth Davidson” (she may even attempt to mount some unfortunate farm animal), but that will surely see Labour drop behind the Greens come 2021…
I am convinced that the way to indy is:
(1) Attracting a remaining 5% rump of Labour who are not bitter unionists, but are left-wingers. The way to do so is to reach out to them as above.
(2) Convert the Don’t Knows by getting everything right on currency and other such issues under this summer’s planned programme.
(3) The SNP can be clever and move slightly to the right (let Greens cover the left) in Holyrood and appeal to soft Tories (and let nature take its course and let Ruthie get red in the face and shouty in Holyrood). Also, mobilise the likes of Ivan McKee and Business for Scotland to appeal to small c conservatives…
There are a good 8-10% of the population in these three groups. That is what we need to get to 55-60%. After that… we are unstoppable!
BONUS
(4) Introduce radical land reform led by Wightman and the Greens — and half the Tories might just leave anyway!!
@ Gag-does-thinking the AMS system aims to create a fair apportioning of votes to seats – it does, we need a fair system that reflects the wishes of the electorate. No PR system that wishes to retain the constituency link has the perfect model – One cannot ride roughshod over the electorate as FPTP does.
@IainB
An absolutely brilliant idea, that we need a second SNPregion party to hoover up the region vote. When I started getting interested in politics, the Tories stood under the banner of the ‘Progressive Party’ at local government elections, but as ‘Conservative and Unionist’ for Westminster. Is there anything to prevent SNP supporters from forming a separate ‘Independence Party’, which would only stand for the list seats? With the agreement of the SNP to stand only for the constituency seats, we could be assured of a huge working majority at Holyrood for the independence cause. This could be a great way to play the electoral system.
“Yet as we’ve noted above, on almost any given measure the Greens will be irrelevant.”
They are to blame for the re-election of the Tory viceroy of Scotland last year.
They are to blame for the most disgusting and dishonest politician in Scotland winning a constituency seat.
The Greens are today what the Lib Dems were yesterday – political opportunists.
The left has been exploited by the establishment for decades. They will never learn.
The SNP has been infiltrated by Greens and socialists, posing as SNP activists while duping SNP supporters into giving their list vote to their parties.
Be warned about the likes of “Business for Scotland” and “Lawyers for Yes” as well.
The worst of all is The National pretending to be an “independence supporting” paper.
It did, and will continue its best to reduce the SNP vote, whenever there is an important election.
Heedtracker @5.00pm,
‘“The quiet people of Scotland, those folk whose voices are often hard to hear, have spoken…’
That’ll be the 25,000 ‘new’ tory voters on the highland list and the ones that BDtt spotted on the NE list. All other party’s votes much the same but loads of extra tory votes. (posts on last thread).
Hard to hear? They didn’t vote last time.
I see on Stu’s twitter feed that Willie Rennie also found an extra 5,000 votes from somewhere with no detriment to the other parties!
There were an extra 5,000 Libs on Highland list as well but it is possible that they didn’t come out to vote for Libs last time because of the coalition. Possible but it does seem that there are an awful lot of ‘new’ unionist voters.
Has anybody compared any other regions?
Just looking at exchanges between the Bella, CS and various people who have asked them to acknowledge their part in the tactical vote onslaught promoted by them and SH, etc.
The denial is unbelievable. By all means vote for whomever you want but don’t pretend you did not want to damage your opponents and those who spoke out for them.
Also, was there ever a ‘Radical’ Socialist movement who got more support from the establishment than RISE? And who joined in a concerted and co-ordinated effort with MSM to shut down and silence another alternative media site?
What an absolute clique of pretendy radicals all lining up to have their say on Radio Scotland and the BBC.
Cag, the system works, you just don’t undrstand it. If the SNP got no list seats in your region they must have done well on the constituency seats and being ‘first past the post’ that means all the losers there got nothing. The system compensates those who got votes but no seats on the fptp side.
The difference for Ruth Davidson is she will have four questions to ask in FM,s question time, which means she will have four opportunity’s to fall flat on her face.
She has already shown her true colours by asking the other opposition parties to stand with her against the government. while Nicola has said she is prepared to work with everyone for the benefit of Scotland. Chalk and cheese.
The Tories won their new position by playing independence ticket the same way it was done during the referendum, even though independence was not really on the table. So they pretended it was and it worked for them, the same cowardly earses came out and voted for them.
You can lie for a period of time and get off with it, but you will still have to answer for it in due course, I can’t wait to see Ruthy and her Sicko’s get theirs.
Here’s what happens next: Loki teams up with Ewan Morrison to write a daring rap-opera critique of an artiste’s agonising journey from disillusionment of radicalism into the light of Better Togetherness. Orchestrated and conducted by Jimmy Macmillan at The Proms, drooling reviews in the Grauniad and on STV’s website by Mike Small and Pat Kane….
Stuart
Brilliant analysis as usual. Thanks very much. You along with WGD and Derek Bateman have pulled me out of post election depression.
Congratulations to Jean Freeman now SNP MSP for Carrick, Cumnock & Doon Valley. What an absolute asset for our Party / Holyrood.
link to snp.org
A wee reminder of Jeane versus Andrew Neil:
‘’Our Parliament has taken a decision to ringfence health spending in Scotland and protect it but you can only do that within the limited pot of money that comes North from the Treasury
*** which is SIGNIFICANTLY LESS than Scotland contributes to that Treasury.” ***
link to youtube.com
……………………………………………….
Thanks for the ‘Tory’ link Boris (5:39pm). That’s the way to go. Post every nasty, toxic Tory snippet on here.
Battlebus 2015: I wonder if this’ll get kicked into the long grass? The Battlebus 2015 issue has opened up a can of worms highlighting that the Tories conspired to pervert the course of a democratic election in 29 marginal constituencies (where have we heard that one before?) Seemingly a criminal offence with 16 Police Force areas now involved. I wonder if any of these politicians will ultimately have to stand down … call a by-election?
…………………………………………………..
Will Rooth the Mooth, supposedly big on promoting a strong economy, support the SNP when they ask Westminster (cap in hand again) for the necessary levers to develop our economy, such as control over Corporation tax that Westminster has deigned to bestow on N Ireland?
Oh wow! Makes you think maybe they’re actually the most powerfully devolved country in the World.
Gordon Macintyre-Kemp: ‘’The SNP should also demand (again) control over all business taxation so they can forgo the Conservatives’ corporation tax cut and introduce a corporation tax credit system to allow firms to earn discounts through activities that drive shared prosperity such as investing in environmentally sustainable practices, paying the real living wage, employee engagement, spending a target percentage of turnover on R&D and downstream innovation, hitting equality targets, employing apprentices, and paying bills promptly – especially to SMEs. Making big businesses earn the tax cut would increase overall tax income.
We are on the road to independence but with a few more powers and a creative approach to harnessing SME growth and rebalancing the business playing field to allow smaller firms to thrive would mean we will get there quicker.’’
link to thenational.scot
WTF?
link to petewishart.wordpress.com
Watched the results coming in all night and as the list results were clearly not going to be in SNP’s favour started to feel a bit despondent. Within in an hour or two watching the Tories overdoing the “imperial conquerors” bit and understanding just how Labour had been destroyed I started to feel better. Haven’t read many threads or comments in the last couple of days as have many other calls on my time. I really believe this is a marvellous result for the SNP and Scotland – won’t go into the stats as I’m sure others have. Now we have a straight fight between the Scottish Party (SNP) and the English Party (Tory). Ruth Davidson (potential Tory leader my ass) will now have to bring forward policies – we all know how vile their policies are and how the vast majority of Scots detest them. Labour are destroyed, and as some of their senior politicians in Scotland are already saying, they need to be clear on constitutional matters. Those who are bigoted unionists will have already gone to the Tories and the rest have to decide – most will begin to support the SNP. The Lib-Dems are totally irrelevant. The Greens who will want some of their policies looked at, at least, will be forced to firm up on their support for Independence. Looks good and independence may be no further away than it was last Wednesday. Keep at it. Ignore BBC and laugh at the rubbish the right-wing propaganda rags imagine to be news. We will win. Scotland will win. Our descendants will be the beneficiaries of all your hard work.
The pile of Press and Journals in my local supermarché with that “Ruth says the dreams over stupid sweaties” front page, is the same now as it was 9am this morning.
“Awizgonny says:
7 May, 2016 at 7:58 pm
Here’s what happens next: Loki teams up with Ewan Morrison to write a daring rap-opera critique of an artiste’s agonising journey from disillusionment of radicalism into the light of Better Togetherness. Orchestrated and conducted by Jimmy Macmillan at The Proms, drooling reviews in the Grauniad and on STV’s website by Mike Small and Pat Kane….”
So harsh, so true. I liked that.
And a “Too Kool to be a Nat” Cantata from Cat on why the next Celtic manager must be a Gramsci-loving vegan.
At least these elections have exposed the Bella Left as an utter irrelevance in politics.
Endgame now: Scotland V The Glorious Union.
@robin
England will vote 65/35 to stay in Europe (I live in Cambridge) and Corbyn /Labour will lose heavily in 2020 to the Tories.
Are you being serious with that prediction? That sounds more like what the result might be in Scotland.
Cat-Does-Thinking said at 7:25 pm
So the vast majority of voters in my area got no SNP representation through the list system. That’s not in any way proportionate and a right slap in the face for those who did the two vote thing. We got nothing for it, it simply just didn’t count. It certainly isn’t proportional representation in any form.
You are aware that the list part of the voting system takes account of how many constituencies the parties have already won in each region? If the SNP had 140000 list votes and didn’t get any list seats, it’ll be because they’d done well on the constituency side of things.
Admittedly AMS is I think needlessly complicated, but that was NuLabour for you – they liked to introduce things that sounded good, and in some cases genuinely where good, but they also liked to make them needlessly complicated (e.g. ISAs, the Minimum Income Guarantee and voting in Welsh & Scottish elections) so as to reduce people’s interest in actually making an effort.
As someone who has a lot of time for the Greens, I really think that as they suggested that SNP voters “help” them on the list,,why couldn’t they help the SNP on the first vote by not standing vanity candidates?
It let Tank Commander in and of course Fluffy in 2015 (different election I know).
Yes it is a democracy and parties have the right to put up candidates where they like but the Greens suggested a form of tactical voting and played the indy card.
It goes both ways.
But…but..Willie Rennie won NE Fife!
Willie fuckin’ Rennie!
I mean to say……Willie Rennie!
My life is strewn with cow pats cast by the Devils own static herd!
Apologies to go OT, but signed this as i am sick and tired of BBC shit and corruption, thought some of you guys may want to add your names
sorry for previous post i forgot to add link
Hello,
I just signed the petition, “BBC: We demand Producer of Daily politics along with Andrew Neil/Laura Kuenssberg be sacked.”
I think this is important. Will you sign it too?
Here’s the link:
link to change.org
Thanks,
Robert
@NeoconNat
Naughty naughty, I said your posting was sensible, I didn’t say it was correct.
You forgot to use the “Troll” label for your last 2 postings.
Anybody get the Daily Record yesterday / today (lol) or spoken to anyone who has? I’ve been told there hasn’t been one mention of the recent SLab slaughter. All suffering from a critical condition of shock, liargitis and pathological denial?
Craig Murray points the finger
link to craigmurray.org.uk
The question is, why did people I generally admire and, in fact, find quite brilliant like James Kelly and Stuart Campbell, get it so wrong and fail to see the obvious?”
So Ruthie the Bullsitter, has asked Kez to join her in a coalition to defend the Union?
I hope the Nicola will seize this opportunity to ask Kez and the Labour Party to Join her in a coalition that is dedicated to defending the people of Scotland against Tory policies.
Make Labour choose Nicola, let their own voters see who there party really cares about!
Love this guy!
Peter A Bell
May 7, 2016 at 09:11
The argument that the SNP didn’t have enough list votes, so we should ensure they get fewer was extremely silly before the election. Now, it is just embarrassing. Tactical voting for OPIPs in an obviously futile effort to create an impossible “pick ‘n’ mix parliament did nothing other than cost us the SNP majority that Scotland needed.
We can be thankful that the dishonest campaign to convince voters that the SNP majority was “guaranteed” hasn’t done as much damage as it might. Those 4 seats for the Greens were bought at a high price. But not as dearly as might have been. The Scottish Government has been weakened in the context of UK politics. But the opposition at Holyrood has also been weakened. Which is some compensation.
Meanwhile, the Greens hold the balance of power. But, as was pointed out repeatedly prior to the election, it is power they cannot use. They have been put there to support the SNP administration. If they fail to do so, they will be severely punished in 2021. In the past, the Greens have got away with siding with the British parties to vote against SNP budgets. That was because they were barely noticed. Now that the Scottish Parliament is so clearly split on the constitutional issue, and the Greens are in the spotlight, they won’t even be able to threaten to vote with the unionists without denting the pro-independence credentials that won them those additional seats.
What is true of the Greens would have been just as true for any of the other OPIPs if they had managed to win seats. But, of course, that was never more than a fantasy. Tactical voting was always destined to fail. And was always pointless even if it could have succeeded. The very idea of it was dreamed up by people who were so focused on what they wanted that they completely lost sight of what was needed, and what was possible. People whose allegiance to a particular party or faction trumped both Scotland’s interests and realpolitik.
I did say 65/35 but it might be 60/40 but I simply do not see outers getting more than 40%
people vote with their wallet and as we know to our cost also respond to fear so I’ll stand by that prediction quite happily.
Personally I think being in Europe is good for Scotland but bad for England as they just are not politically ready to be part of the social democratic European project (remember they are tories) but they will vote with whats good for their wallets
Rev, thank you for coming back with more, a fuller and very clear breakdown of the implications of the election result, tied in too with evidence from the ‘forgotten’ recent past.
THE BIG THANK YOU is for the cleverness in your heartfelt reaction to what actualy happened on Thursday = )
YOU GOT THEIR ATTENTION!
And your words may just have informed a few who made detrimental choices and maybe some will now come here in future to hear the more intellegent take on the matters that will shape our futures.
Like any marriage the Union between England and Scotland has had its ups and downs, but like a marriage, it isn’t helped by having some “floozy” in the form of the EU trying to seduce Scotland away from England.
That doesn’t mean the union between England (Wales, NI) with Scotland is repairable – that needs good will on both sides, but it’s certainly been better for Scotland than the appalling EU which is near economic collapse (floozy – is a good description).
The big question is this – once the EU is out of the “marriage” will the “marriage” end because the EU floozy is thrown out, or will the partners give it one last chance?
I think most reasonable Scots will hang on to see what happens.
acknowledge their part in the tactical vote onslaught promoted by them and SH, etc.
They tried but it didnt work. I had to look at the numbers myself, for my own sanity.
Apologies for the table, the formats fcuked.
Region Green votes Total votes Greens list vote %
Glasgow 23398 248109 9.43%
Mid&Fife 17860 291172 6.13%
Lothian