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The forgotten creed 118

Posted on January 16, 2015 by

We apologise if the results of our twin social-attitudes polls of both Scotland and the rUK have been a little depressing so far, readers.

hoymanana

Depending on how you choose to look at things (and where you live), this next tranche of data is going to either cheer you up a little bit or make you feel even worse.

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Crimes and punishments 181

Posted on January 15, 2015 by

Having found to our dismay that both Scots and the rest of the UK want to see people prosecuted for offensive but non-threatening comments on Twitter and Facebook, it seems a good time to reveal the rest of our findings on matters of law and justice.

garyglitter

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We are not all Charlie 101

Posted on January 15, 2015 by

Freedom of speech has been a very hot topic across the world in the wake of the brutal murder of 12 editorial staff at the French satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo, and other related killings. So in our latest poll we thought we’d find out how committed people were to the principle, even in much less deadly situations.

charlieh

The results were sobering.

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A United Kingdom? 99

Posted on January 15, 2015 by

Keen students of politics can’t have failed to notice a fascinating situation coalescing in the last few months. On current polling, it looks very much like no two of the UK’s four constituent nations will vote for the same party at the forthcoming general election. The Tories are miles ahead in England, in Scotland the SNP lead by even more, Wales is still a Labour stronghold and Northern Ireland continues to do its own thing, split roughly half-and-half along, well, let’s call them “cultural” lines.

So when we decided to conduct another poll with our left-over fundraiser money (start saving now for 2015’s annual grand appeal next month, readers!), we thought it might be interesting to do something that we’re not sure has ever been done before.

yesnoages

We commissioned TWO full-sample polls, one of 1000 people in Scotland and one of 1000 people in the rest of the UK, and we asked them the same questions.

The results we got were fascinating – sometimes predictable, sometimes surprising, sometimes pleasing and sometimes dismaying. But we’re going to start off with one we really didn’t see coming at all.

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The resentful elephant 182

Posted on December 28, 2014 by

Several papers lead this morning with a Panelbase poll showing that a sizeable majority of Scots – regardless of their party allegiances – think that electing a large number of SNP MPs at next May’s UK general election will be the only practical way to safeguard Scotland’s interests in the wake of the referendum No vote.

This poll, currently live on the YouGov website, shows why:

ygpoll

The problem that will arise if most Scottish Labour MPs keep their seats in 2015 will be that there is only one Labour Party and it has only one leader.

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The tipping point 81

Posted on December 18, 2014 by

The argument that seat projections based on current opinion polling give the SNP (based on uniform swing) a wildly unrealistic number of seats seems at first glance to be compelling. More than two dozen current Labour seats have five-figure majorities, and several are higher than 20,000. Taken individually every single one represents a mammoth task, and capturing the bulk of them looks an absurd dream.

tippoint

We’re deeply sceptical ourselves about the predictions giving the SNP 40 or more seats, partly for that reason and partly because the lesson of 2011 – when the Nats somehow pulled off a 30-point poll shift in around six weeks – shows how foolish it is to call a febrile-looking election that’s still the best part of five months away.

So we’re not going to be doing that. We’re not making any forecasts here. Rather, we were interested in taking a look at how it could happen, and how First Past The Post, for so long the SNP’s mortal enemy, could next year become a powerful ally.

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You only sing when you’re winning 212

Posted on December 15, 2014 by

An intriguing extract from the weekend’s YouGov poll for The Sun:

milibandyg

It’s not the biggest vote of confidence, is it?

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The future, coming soon 150

Posted on December 05, 2014 by

From a YouGov poll of young (18-24) voters today:

yg1824

Now that’s quite the thing.

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The ultimate irony 148

Posted on December 01, 2014 by

We’ve long known that Labour’s attachment to the Union was founded on the belief – though a statistically erroneous one – that it couldn’t form a secure UK government without the block of MPs (currently 40) that it sends to Westminster from Scotland.

obiwansalmond

But a fascinating article from YouGov president Peter Kellner on the YG website today suggests that the party’s desperate and eventually successful efforts to secure a No vote could turn out to be the most Pyrrhic victory of all time.

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The meaning of devo-max 260

Posted on November 07, 2014 by

As the Smith Commission continues its fundamentally pointless and impossible deliberations, in which it’s expected to digest and consider many thousands of submissions (including hundreds of detailed ones from political organisations and “civic Scotland”) in around three weeks, the Scottish and UK press is still casually and inaccurately tossing around the term “devo-max”.

devomax

There seem to be essentially two competing interpretations of the term – the previously-understood meaning (also known as “Full Fiscal Autonomy”) in which all powers are devolved to Holyrood except foreign affairs and defence, and a new one which simply refers to whatever devolution Westminster is prepared to grant. (Justified semantically by the claim that it’s the maximum devolution Scotland’s going to get.)

So when we commissioned our latest Panelbase poll, we decided that rather than the usual checklist of “which powers should be devolved”, to which the answers have remained the same for years, we’d ask some slightly different questions about the relationship between Holyrood and Westminster, and the process of devolution itself, to see if we could determine what it is that the people of Scotland really want from their Parliament.

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Slim pickings 206

Posted on November 07, 2014 by

When we commissioned our latest poll, the candidates for the Scottish Labour sort-of leadership hadn’t yet been finalised. In fact, we’re not even sure whether the post of deputy “leader” was up for grabs at that point, with Anas Sarwar having said that he had no intention of stepping down, shortly before stepping down.

murphyfive

But in any event we thought it’d be much more interesting to see who people actually thought should be the leader, rather than just who they regarded as the least-worst option out of whoever put their head above the parapet and took on the least attractive job prospect in Scottish politics.

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The reluctant internationalists 134

Posted on November 06, 2014 by

As part of our latest Panelbase poll, we wanted to explore the so-called “2017 Scenario” hinted at by new SNP leader and First Minister-elect Nicola Sturgeon, whereby the Tories control the UK parliament, the SNP have another majority at Holyrood, and the UK holds a referendum on the EU where England/the rUK votes to leave and Scotland votes to stay in.

faragejack

To that end, we asked two key questions. Our findings are below.

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    • Robert Matthews on The Wage Thief: “Skrewdriver : I Don’t Like You. 1-2-3-4, I don’t like you! Get out on the job in the morning Time…Dec 11, 02:41
    • Campbell Clansman on The Wage Thief: “Alf, you are aware, aren’t you, that the UN maintains a list of “colonies” (they call them NSGTs) and Scotland…Dec 11, 02:31
    • Robert Matthews on The Wage Thief: “Of “days that will never come”.Dec 11, 01:15
    • Robert Matthews on The Wage Thief: “Beach Boys – Sloop John B alternative version.Dec 11, 01:12
    • Mac on The Wage Thief: “2014-2024 www.youtube.com/watch?v=8AHCfZTRGiI&list=PLm90JTuh4xFuWAEmfd1Y2ogMKLvOVDGmJ&index=43&ab_channel=JohnnyCashVEVODec 10, 23:35
    • Mark Beggan on The Wage Thief: “I’m Glasgow we’d call her a back stabbing bastard.Dec 10, 23:04
    • gregor on The Wage Thief: “Dear anti-people/power, Who/what are you ? Don’t you wanna be part of our undisputed winning team ?? We’ll be thinking…Dec 10, 23:02
    • Mark Beggan on The Wage Thief: “They will go back to what they are. Nobodys.Dec 10, 22:49
    • Mac on The Wage Thief: “So am I the only one working their way through the We Are Not The Same playlist thingy? www.youtube.com/watch?v=4p4snj33BHg&list=PLm90JTuh4xFuWAEmfd1Y2ogMKLvOVDGmJ&index=32&ab_channel=ManicStreetPreachers-Topic Not…Dec 10, 22:47
    • gregor on The Wage Thief: “Bryn X Malone: Loser Love (feat. Mo-cee & IAM Q): “(I_am_Q) Lost love Lost love Fantasy (fantasy) Yea I guess…Dec 10, 22:18
    • James Gardner on The Wage Thief: “Memoirs of a Betrayer will be available in Charity shops one week after it’s general release…….Dec 10, 22:15
    • Mark Beggan on The Wage Thief: “The ‘Fuck You’ vote is on the menu.Dec 10, 22:15
    • James Gardner on The Wage Thief: “Lima Bravo…Dec 10, 22:07
    • Michael Laing on The Wage Thief: “Much as I despise the SNP for the absolute shambles they’ve made of everything, I do believe the blame for…Dec 10, 22:01
    • Mark Beggan on The Wage Thief: “If you thought the DFL, SNP and those other clowns are cretins then wait till you meet the Reform candidate…Dec 10, 21:57
    • PacMan on The Wage Thief: “I practice the same thing myself and it’s a tough one as this silence is allowing the likes of Reform…Dec 10, 21:56
    • Campbell Clansman on The Wage Thief: “All the polls since May 17, have shown Indy support at 38%, 41, 46, 37, 44, 34, 37, 45, 40,…Dec 10, 21:41
    • Mark Beggan on The Wage Thief: “Best thing is just don’t talk to them. It works for me.Dec 10, 21:32
    • Mac on The Wage Thief: “Oh yeah. And reading Wings twitter, it is one of that fucked up couple, that played an instrumental role in…Dec 10, 21:29
    • Marie on The Wage Thief: “Try Rhumble (without the h)Dec 10, 21:29
    • Mike D on The Wage Thief: “A vile woman whose party i was a member of and contributed to from 2018 till 2020, until my mum…Dec 10, 21:29
    • Campbell Clansman on The Wage Thief: “SNP not an Indy Party, according to you. The “true” Indy Party (Alba, ISP, whatever this week’s “movement” is labeled)…Dec 10, 21:27
    • gregor on The Wage Thief: “Empire Of The Sun: We Are The People: “We are the people that rule the world A force running in…Dec 10, 21:27
    • Mac on The Wage Thief: “For some reason people in Scotland find it hard to believe that they are surrounded by them same as the…Dec 10, 21:26
    • Captain Caveman on The Wage Thief: “Another day, another trolling and goading. You really are a useless waste of space pal. Cretin.Dec 10, 21:23
    • Campbell Clansman on The Wage Thief: “So you can’t explain how Indy has stalled, despite this overwhelming (sarc) support? Thought so.Dec 10, 21:22
    • Hatey McHateface on The Wage Thief: “That’s an opinion you are entitled to be most humble about. I read a lot about the Opium Wars. I’m…Dec 10, 21:21
    • Mike D on The Wage Thief: “Or a female stakeknifeDec 10, 21:13
    • Zander Tait on The Wage Thief: “Ha ha ha, RH. And let’s not forget the bolts protruding from his neck. It was, of course 54% Yes…Dec 10, 21:11
    • Hatey McHateface on The Wage Thief: ““our NHS is on its knees because Sturgeon put it there” It strains credibility far beyond breaking point to believe…Dec 10, 21:11
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