The limits of science
Last weekend’s edition of the Sunday Times gave an article to a Green activist and party worker – not billed as such, even though until last month he was on the party’s regional candidate list for Lothian – to predict that the Greens would get 10 seats at next month’s election.
Much campaigning by the various fringe parties for the Holyrood contest has been based on “seat predictors” like the one deployed to produce the figures in the piece, purporting to show that a tactical-voting strategy on the list can deliver a large gain in numbers of pro-independence MSPs compared to using both votes for the SNP.
We’ve examined that argument in considerable depth already, both theoretical and practical. But its also worth noting that so-called “seat predictors” are a rather shaky basis for making such bold forecasts.
Let’s illustrate that assertion.
The most commonly-used “seat predictor” is the Scotland Votes one produced by Weber Shandwick, who are a “public affairs agency”, whatever one of those is. After a tip-off from alert Wings contributor Doug Daniel, we spent the morning feeding some numbers into it for a bit of fun.
One of the first interesting things that happened was that when we entered the actual results of the 2007 Holyrood election, Labour won it instead of the SNP:
As it happened the seat numbers were almost bang on the money, but even the tiny inaccuracy made the most significant difference possible. We invite readers to ponder the Scotland of 2016 had Jack McConnell, not Alex Salmond, squeaked to victory by the narrowest of margins nine years ago.
But things got much zanier when we used some more extreme figures.
When we gave EVERY SINGLE VOTE in the election to the SNP, this happened:
Despite not registering a single vote, the opposition parties somehow still managed to secure five list seats. The outcome was the same if all the votes went to the Tories.
Oddly, if Labour got every vote, the opposition got just three seats:
Weirder yet, if the Liberal Democrats swept the board, not only did the opposition pick up five list seats for their zero votes, but the Lib Dems managed to lose one of their CONSTITUENCY seats (Clydesdale, currently held by the SNP) as well:
But it was when we suggested to the predictor a scenario where UKIP got every single constituency and list vote that it freaked out completely:
It couldn’t even call the results the same way twice – the party took two constituency seats in the Borders and both of the Northern Isles, but other seats went SNP, Labour or Tory seemingly at random, while the actual numbers in the table at the bottom right suggested that in fact they hadn’t been allocated to anyone at all.
Essentially, the predictor simply couldn’t cope at all with UKIP getting constituency votes – there’s clearly a pretty serious bug roaming around in the code there. So to give it a break we tried some (slightly) less fanciful data sets.
Giving all the constituency votes to the Tories and all the list ones to the SNP delivered the first entirely accurate results in the experiment – everything worked as it should, with the Tories getting all 73 constituency seats and the SNP all 56 list ones.
But when we gave the Lib Dems the constituency monopoly instead, an independent list MSP suddenly appeared out of nowhere and Clydesdale went back to the SNP.
If we gave all the list votes to either Labour or the Tories, more or less the same thing happened except that in BOTH cases Clydesdale apparently went Labour, but a rogue SNP MSP showed up in their seat in the chamber.
How about if we split both votes 50/50 between Labour and the SNP?
In that case the Lib Dems and Tories each win a CONSTITUENCY seat (Shetland and Roxburgh & Berwickshire respectively) for no votes. Obviously.
Whereas a Tory-Labour 50-50 carve-up sees the Lib Dems still holding Shetland but now the SNP get a LIST seat for some unfathomable reason.
While if we divide the two votes equally between the Parliament’s original coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems, there are still two opposition seats (one each to the Tories and SNP), but this time they’re BOTH on the list:
How about an extreme tactical voting scenario, where everyone’s constituency vote goes to the SNP but the list is polarised between the pro-indy Greens and UKIP?
The SNP rightly get all the constituencies, but rather than getting exactly half of the list seats each, for some reason UKIP get two more than the Greens. Harsh.
What about the ultimate hung parliament – the four main parties all getting exactly 25% of the vote each in both the constituencies and the list? Even-stevens?
Nope. The numbers are all over the shop, but Labour win the election by a clear margin and form the next government in some sort of Unionist coalition, with 39 seats to the Lib Dems’ 32 and the SNP and Tories’ 29 each.
And what if we narrow it down to 50/50 on the constituency vote but give one party all the list seats? Then the skew gets even stronger, to a startling degree:
On the EXACT SAME vote share, Labour get 43 seats while the SNP get just 28. (It doesn’t matter which party you give the 100% list vote to, they all get 56.)
Anti-SNP bias at work? Nope. If you split the constituency vote equally between the SNP and the Tories the gap grows to 46 to 26 in favour of the Nats. (We’ve given the Greens the list vote here for a bit of visual variety.)
Make it SNP (or Labour) vs Lib Dems and it’s more than 2:1 – a staggering 51 to 22 seats from, remember, identical vote shares:
And Labour versus the Tories on 50/50 vote shares comes out 45-27 (but this time it’s UKIP that wins the election by hogging the list votes):
And finally the Lib Dems and Tories splitting the constituency vote right down the middle has the unbalanced outcome of the Tories taking 47 seats to the Lib Dems’ 26, but 100% on the list puts the SNP out in front again:
(Basically the Lib Dems get a massively raw deal in the constituencies – no matter who they split it with, 50% of the vote always gets them well under 50% of seats. We haven’t the faintest idea what the rationale for that is.)
You probably got the idea at least half-a-dozen examples ago: “seat predictors” are cobblers. That’s not meant as any reflection on the hard-working coders at Weber Shandwick or elsewhere – it’s essentially an impossible job, since votes aren’t divided equally across the country and there’s just no way to get around that. (Although it’s hard to make excuses for not splitting list seats evenly on a 50-50 vote.)
Even attempting the task is pretty foolish. But it’s not as foolish as putting your faith in the results. If anyone says “Do what I say and you’ll get this desirable outcome because it says so on a seat predictor!”, treat them as if they’d just told you that alien lizards are putting mind-control drugs in chemtrails, readers.
Thanks for this Rev, i’ll read through and study it fully as my bedtime reading tonight. I only wanted to say that i detest this or any system that allows failures to enter via other routes. It’s just plain wrong and the system should be changed, but to what?
Shite in, shite out.
An interesting exercise in political predicti……..oooooo, look at the pretty colours!!!
So if the electorate votes 50% Labour & 50% Tory, then Tavish Scott is guaranteed his MSP Shetland seat back?
I can see why he might indeed support tactical voting. Although there’s a higher probability of a one legged man winning the arse kicking contest at this year’s Callander Highland Games.
2007 was very close. At the Dingwall count, Dave Thomson challenged the Returning Officer, Arthur McCourt over the numbers. There was a recount which gave Dave the list seat, which gave the majority and the rest, they say, is history…
Alien lizards and chem…oh look squirrels in white coats.
What was the margin of error, if there was such a thing quoted, in this predictor model? Always a tell tale sign that they are barking…
Honestly! You’re as bad as Kev but with scren shots instead of graphs 😀
There are lies, damned lies and statistics and the worst of these is statistical predictions.
Of course, defenders of tactical list voting will say “oh, but it’s not meant to work with unrealistic scenarios”. To which you might point at last year’s result, which even on polling day itself seemed like an unrealistic prospect…
But! but!… Aye OK… that’s us duly warned. 🙁
You have come up trumps again.
Still:
SNP x 2 is the best we can do folks and let the numbers be counted.
PS In my young days of the Battle of Britain they were called contrails from condensation trails, but con has a different meaning now and still apt for the picture in its position in the piece
Stoker: that’s an interesting point and in 2007 (and 2011) you would have have the SNP in a similar position to that which Labour found itself in with a number of ‘accidental’ MSPs. The SNP would have entered these elections expecting to be beaten in many constituency seats and picking up list seats when the opposite happened to a greater or lesser extent around the country
There are clearly more than a couple of oddities in there although thankfully I think Mr Coburn has ensured a UKIP clean sweep is unlikely
I am also sceptical about the 9 or 10 seats for the Greens thrown up by the model. I think they will do well in Lothian and Glasgow and may pick up 4 or 5 seats but will struggle to pick up seats in other lists
The big battle will be the list between Labour and the Tories who both seem to be around the 18% mark.
There’s an additional interesting ropey result:
If you have a ‘normal’ set of votes, but reduce the Lib Dems’ vote towards zero, they till hang on to the Shetlands constituency. Even at 0.1%. Even at 0%.
I can understand why the calculator thinks that the Shetlands is their safest seat, but at some point it should show a result based on the input figures.
Someone needs to update their code.
But point taken. There is no way of predicting the Additional Member System accurately.
SNP x 2 and Remain.
Like the previously,invisible chemtrails of yoon affluenza from the MSM/BBC.
A timely reminder,thanks.
SNP x 2
Another impressive post from the Rev. BellaCaledonia should post it on their website.
SNP x 2
Seat predictors? Tactical wheels? FFS!
Why can’t folk just vote on the evidence of their own eyes, their own ears, their own reasoning and their own guddam conscience?
Don’t let anyone tell you who to vote for. Folks should just get off their arses, do the research, examine their own life experience and make a choice.
Hint: The basic criteria is – what are you prepared to live with? Take it from there.
O/T to continue my occasional notes on BBC issues.
BBC Alba has an interesting series on Celtic Radicals. The final part is very sad focusing on the depopulation of the Highlands.
link to bbc.co.uk
But this series was originally made in 1999 as the Scottish Parliament was under construction, before the Parliament, while Tony Blair reigned in Westminster.
It was first shown on BBC in 2011.
Who made it and where has it been lurking for 17 years?
@ 1AlanM (1.34pm)
Correct, Alan, i know all that but it makes no difference to my belief, it has and will always be wrong. If the public don’t like the sort of goods you’re trying to punt you change your stock. You don’t get rewarded with a gold pass to salesperson of the year.
😉
here’s the best guide to how to vote: look to see who the corporate media doesn’t want you to vote for and vote for them, assuming that your interests are different from wealthy business owners’ interests.
The way I look at it is … When you have PR, you choose the party whose policies best suit you and you vote for them in both votes. Why would you split your vote? It certainly isn’t a 1st & 2nd choice, though I have a horrible feeling some voters might think it is!
OK, there is a reason why you might split your vote – because your chosen party isn’t contesting your constituency.
My first reaction has to be, if they are serious, why aren’t they contesting all seats? Lots of parties stand in ‘no hope’ seats, but I take it as a mark of their commitment that they are genuine in their quest to have influence. I am highly sceptical of any party which doesn’t also stand in seats. I think they are playing the system to get a handful of seats at most, and frankly saying they aren’t serious players.
Playing the system entails encouraging people to split their vote. And, part of that is using dodgy science to make it look like your ideas on tactical voting are valid. I smell shite, frankly.
(The exception would be individuals standing as independents on the list.)
“treat them as if they’d just told you that alien lizards are putting mind-control drugs in chemtrails”
Which is exactly what I’ve been trying to tell you people.
I remember when David Icke tried to get into Canada they stopped him at customs and asked him if he really meant “Jews” when he said that “alien lizards” run the world…
Turns out he really meant alien lizards, he strenuously argued his case and convinced them, and they deemed it safe to let him into the country.
If I was lizard, I’d probably be raging about that.
Broken coding model. That is all.
Purposefully broken model. Much more likely.
Useless – definitely.
Twist your seat predictor into an interesting shape and force it up your arse. I voted (and worked for) the SNP for a quarter of a century, during most of which the seat predictor said that our seats were just the cold damp benches outside the building. Gosh, how times change.
I’ll be voting Green and I’m OK (politically speaking) sleeping rough on a damp bench outside. Been there before.
Tiocfaidh ár lá.
Maybe the predictor accounts for the already known postal votes separately?
I remain convinced that any form of division of the SNP vote will benefit a unionist party and probably Labour.
I have one Primary goal and that is Independence. The makeup of Holyrood after that goal is important bu secondary.
If we ever lose the pressure on Westminster by softening the SNP mandate then we will be set back 20 or 30 years.
Always remember that the unionist parties are waiting for the chance to form a government at Holyrood using the PR system as it was originally designed to keep out the SNP. The lead over individual parties may be large but as Better Together proved the unionists will act together. Think of the damage such an alliance would wreck on Scotland and it’s people in order to keep a union that benefits Westminster instead of the people of this nation.
It heartening to even software not stomaching the idea of UKIP in Totalitarianism
O/T Reporting Scotland
I’ve always been meaning to mention this but keep forgetting due to other topics but for those who actually watch BBC Reporting Scotland, forget for a second about the crap they talk and just take a good look at the screen
Program opens with a flood of Red White and Blue across the screen, the studio is in Red White and Blue, if a reporter or member of the public is interviewed their name comes across the bottom of the screen in Red White and Blue bars after the weather and the program is closing a map of Scotland is flooded across the screen in Red White and Blue
with the sea in White
Now tell us we’re paranoid
STV are not guilty of this their screen shows Blue White and Black and the sea is shown in varying shades of natural looking Blue when they do the weather
The attempt by RISE and Greens to make hay…has the potential to split the Indy vote, which of course could result in a minority SNP government.
If this happens, because of all these false ‘tactical’ predictors and the push from Mike over at Bella et al. Notwithstanding what cat has said about there being some regions where voting Green would keep unionists out, then imo it’s unlikely that the SNP would be able to maintain the momentum for another referendum.
If that turns out to be what happens in May. Personally, I’m done.
If RISE and the Greens cannot see that Independence outweighs their bandwagon unionist rhetoric about ‘good opposition’ and how they are feeding intae the ‘one party state’ pish, they’ll never receive my vote, in or out of the Union.
If they split the vote, it’ll be mair than ‘a generation’ before we ever have this unique set of circumstances in play, if ever, again.
In that case we may as well baton down the hatches and watch idly as they tear themselves apart at Holyrood. As the entire Unionist machine breathes a collective sigh of relief…and ‘business as usual’ resumes unabated.
I wish, just once that people would get it. We put 56 MP’s intae Westminster. They are making a difference. We need to put a majority SNP admisitration intae Holyrood, it will make a difference. We have tae come together tae achieve this.
And having accomplished this, we know what the next step is: 2017.
The only way we get to our destination is tae keep marching in the right direction.
RISE and Greens are sidetracks…and lovely as those little off the beaten paths are, as visions of possibility. The only way they become even close to manifesting as a reality in Scotland is when we are actually Independent.
SNP x 2 For probabilities not possibilities.
For me these seat predictor thingys are just for fun. I never take them seriously, but there again how can I … I’m the village idiot around these parts I take nothing seriously! 😀
It is interesting though that it appears, at least to me, that certain party supporters/voters seem to put a fantastic amount of belief in these seat predictor thingys like they were gospel or something. 😉
There is only one seat “predictor” that matters and that is the election on May 5th so it will be BOTH VOTES S.N.P. for me. I have no intention of putting anything to chance and risking the Poisoned Dwarf or any of her cohorts getting in. 🙂
You can see what’s coming…
Coburn: “Absolutely, Bernard! Polls show that UKIP is on course to win the Scottish election.
Ponsonby: “Do you have a source for that claim, Mr Coburn or are you just making things up again?”
Coburn: “I saw it on Wings Over Scotland. Check it out for yourself, Bernard if you think I’m just making these figures up.”
Ponsonby: “Jesus wept!”
^^^^^^^^
What K1 says (2:13pm)
have post vote
Is Lothian region first past post or percentage
ie–if a candidate had 15% would they get elected
I had a short email exchange with the guy that runs that web site just over a year ago. I was pointing out weird anomalies in the percentage of votes the programme was giving to the Lib Dems – tiny fractions of a percent in some seats and a third of the vote in neighbouring seats.
He just waffled and went all defensive, saying the votes the Lib Dems were losing had to come from somewhere so they were being taken off seats they didn’t currently hold or something. He broke off the correspondence when I got a bit more technical than that.
I didn’t try any really extreme predictions, but it’s obvious the algorithms are quite flaky. The Lib Dem anomaly holds for quite a lot of English constituencies as well. It’s pretty, and it’s a reasonable rough guide, but it’s nowhere close to an accurate predictor.
“The ghosts in the machine”
Trying to make science out of indefinitive data, results in a brain fart!
Stu did have a lot of fun with that predictor almost exactly five years ago though. I think it was that post that first turned me on to Wings and made me a regular reader.
link to wingsoverscotland.com
Quite a few people are trying to persuade everyone that it’s in the bag, a foregone conclusion.
Personally, I’m feeling a wee bit nervous, and I will be until I see Nicola Sturgeon elected as the First Minister of another SNP majority government.
Personally, I’m feeling a wee bit nervous,
Me too. If I was in charge of say BBC attack propaganda, I’d be going for coalition Holyrood, with UK staying in EU. Bish bosh, end of independence, UKOK strike back begins in earnest.
Its why yoonsters picked the PR they did, nice display of hardcore yoon trust us with coalition bullshit in action here
link to archive.is
The LibDems have repeatedly ruled out any deal with the SNP at Westminster after May 7, arguing a party which is against the UK should not be allowed to run it.
However Rennie made it clear there was no ban on working with the SNP at Holyrood.
Speaking of his respect for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, he said: “I admire her in many ways. There’s no doubt that she’s got talent, and I can work with her.”
Asked if that meant he could work with the SNP in coalition, he said: “Yes, possibly. I mean absolutely, absolutely. I think it’s not impossible. We’ll consider all the factors when it comes to the time, because so much can change over the next year.”
What a difference a LibDem year makes. Ruthie Babes much the same.
Voting SNP is absolutely unambiguous. Westminster is shitting itself.
Give them both barrels. SNP TWICE.
If you want Scotland to become Independent, you have to vote SNP for both votes, anything else would just be utter madness.
Twist your seat predictor into an interesting shape and force it up your arse.
Yeah, but you think I’m working for MI5, so what does that say?
heedtracker says:
Speaking of his respect for First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, he said: “I admire her in many ways. There’s no doubt that she’s got talent, and I can work with her.”
Asked if that meant he could work with the SNP in coalition, he said: “Yes, possibly. I mean absolutely, absolutely. I think it’s not impossible. We’ll consider all the factors when it comes to the time, because so much can change over the next year.”
There is just one itsy bitsy teeny weeny little problem for wee Willie Winkie there Heedtracker. Would the S.N.P. actually want to be seen to be working with HIM?
I think we all know the answer to that question … don’t we folks? 😀
“We invite readers to ponder the Scotland of 2016 had Jack McConnell, not Alex Salmond, squeaked to victory by the narrowest of margins nine years ago.”
———-
Yep, Cunninghame North was won by the SNP by 48 votes.
So 24 individuals switching from Labour to SNP changed the Scottish Government.
Or the ‘Executive’ as it was known then.
Without the SNP being able to demonstrate competent government, we would never have had a majority in 2011 and the first referendum.
When thinking about tactical voting, we don’t need to use dubious voting simulations. We already have SOLID PROOF from 2011 that SNP+SNP can deliver a pro-indy majority and a referendum. Nothing can be taken for granted, and the list seats were all needed.
IMO, it would be nice to see a few more Greens, but why should SNP supporters take a risk dividing the vote and spoiling a winning strategy?
Stu – That’s a really helpful analysis.
Here’s the health warning from another seat forecaster:
“Please bear in mind that polls are only a bit of fun, and so too is this. No forecaster like this can take account of local demographic changes, of the strongest campaigns in each constituency, the candidate everyone hates, or any of the countless factors that will influence every result next month.”
link to cutbot.net
[…] Wings Over Scotland The limits of science Last weekend’s edition of the Sunday Times gave an article to a Green activist and […]
Morag: that chickens post from 5 years ago is fascinating. SNP to win 53 seats? Ahahahaha. Only two weeks before the election and the predictor is WAY out, either it, the poll or both were completely wrong. Or did Ian Gray’s subway moment really have that much influence??!
Lib Dems forgot to put in their nomination papers for Clydesdale in 2011, which would explain the various discrepancies relating to that constituency.
ClanDonald, you have to enlarge the image but it actually predicts 63 seats, not 53. It’s not far out on basic total seat numbers, considering that it was taken from an opinion poll a couple of weeks before the election.
What it doesn’t get right is which seats were actually won by which party.
Luigi says:
“Personally, I’m feeling a wee bit nervous”
Definitely! The polls say SNP about 55:45 on constit:list. Polls are frequently inaccurate. If, in the day, the vote slipped much from that then it will be no overall majority. No Indy, possibly never.
At Westminster you can get an overall majority with 36.8%, as Cameron achieve. This gave him 330 seats. Labour on 30.5% got just 232 seats.
The Holyrood system was designed to ensure the SNP could never get an overall majority with those sort of figures.
In 2011 the SNP achieved a small majority with 45.4/44.0%. This gave 53 constituency and 16 list seats.
NOTE, 16 list seats.
As this article shows, the maths and predictions are impossible. However if the Unionists can hang on to some of their 20 constituencies and too many of the SNP’s list votes go to others, then FAILURE IS POSSIBLE!
We cannot afford any slip ups in this election. The UKOK wolves are just waiting for the chance to tear apart all our good work. Email just arrived from oor Nicola. Please feel free to cut and paste and forward to your family and friends who are not members.
You’ve got mail
Dear ######,
Postal ballot packs are starting to land on doormats across Scotland today.
Delivery of postal votes marks an important point in any election.
Many postal voters will make their decision and vote today. And I’m asking them to choose me as their First Minister.
I am immensely proud of what’s been achieved by the SNP since 2007, but I am ambitious to do so much more.
A re-elected SNP government will give our children a better start in life with more opportunities, transform our NHS, and deliver more and better paid jobs too.
If you’re voting by post, please cast both votes SNP. Do your bit to re-elect an SNP government and me as First Minister.
And if you’ve got family and friends who are deciding how to vote, take the opportunity today to encourage them to cast both votes SNP.
This election is important. Only the SNP has the strength, the unity and the vision to keep Scotland moving forward.
Together, we can move Scotland forward.
Nicola Sturgeon
SNP Leader
What happens if there is an exit poll?
I’ve just had a wee bit of fun with that seat forcaster Frank.
I put in the poll results from the You Gov site.
link to d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net
Amazingly the results came out with:
SNP on 73 seats
Lab on 27 seats
Tory on 23 seats
Ld’s on 4 seats
Greens on 2 seats
Of course the You Gov thingy only gave individual figures for the SNP, Labour, Tories, LD’s and Greens. Hey ho, like I said earlier I only do this for a wee bit of light relief. 😀
I have just had a wee further look at the Cutbot’s site and they have a set of results based on a TNS opinion poll. Whilst I am none too happy to see ANY RED or BLUE I have to admit to being a wee bit YEE HA as well. 😉 I’ve checked what they say about my Dumfriesshire constituency. As a certain Sergeant Major used to say:
link to youtube.com
There would be NO Poisioned Dwarf in Holyrood, she is only standing in the constituency vote! 😀
Unfortunately the Junior Viceroy of Scotland would slither into Holyrood under the List vote. DAMN!
Still as I say it is all fun and games … the only REAL set of figures I’m interested in come on May 5th all the rest are just for fun! 😀
ooft now my head hurts lol
tinfoil hats on time guys lol
Its the way the yoons set it up Rev the lib dems allowed this thinking that they would always be in coalition with Labour running the parliament,nobody thought the SNP would come along and break their little scam and the worst case scenario for the yoons would be a rainbow coalition bringing the blue tories in.
Well like everything else Labour plan it fell to pieces the yoons never got the chance with Eck going minority government on them (he doesnt get the credit he deserves for that one).
I also believe this mess up by Labour is what cost them a UK government with the lib dems and why Clegg told broon the loon to get on his bike, you see the Scottish parliament was the way the lib dems could actually get lib dems doing the job of government instead of pretending to do a job that someone else has and if that person lost it they are not even next in line for it.
Thats why the lib dems are so grumpy in Scotland it was not what their best of buddies the red tories promised awww what a shame.
@ bookie from hell
The Lothian vote is for the regional list, and proportional; your consituency vote is FPTP.
There isn’t an exact percentage required to get elected, it depends on the results achieved by other parties on the list (and in the constituencies if they stand there too).
Is 15% enough? In 2011 the LDs got just over 13% in the Highlands and Islands, but did not get any list seats because they won 2 constituencies. Elsewhere, they did get list seats on about 6%, because they won no constituencies. So your question cannot be answered without further information, which will not be available until the votes are counted.
It seems to me that most of the regulars on here have a conflict of interest when it comes to the fight against RISE and the Greens. By that I mean you are all basically leftist tree-huggers in nationalist guises.
You are are conflicted. Having temporarily given up on socialism and environmentalism for the sake of the independence cause, it must be awkward for you to find yourselves now pitted against those causes. And to make matters worse, those parties have given a clear commitment to a second referendum whereas the party that you (we) have thrown in our lot with has not.
Maybe you should let me deal with RISE and the Greens, then. I’ll say the things you can’t be seen saying for fear of scaring the horses.
RISE are a shower of pseudo-Maxist losers. It’s that simple. Most of them have already been rejected by voters on several occasions. They proved even too thick to see that shooting their very own meal ticket, Tommy Sheridan, would cost them. They are totally unelectable. The sensible centre of Scotland will never vote for that sort of intellectual onanism.
For a multitude of complex reasons, The Green movement lacks credibility nowadays. Most mainstream parties have incorporated green ideas into their manifestos and that has weakened the Green Party massively. The sort of environmental extremism the Greens have naturally turned to in response echoes in the ears of most sensible people as a bonkers alarm.
The SNP are left enough and shouldn’t go any farther in that direction. If they do they risk losing the sensible centre and you can’t do anything without them. At the same time, they are as green as the Greens were say 15 years ago.
The big difference between voting Green or RISE and voting SNP is that with the SNP there’s a good chance manifesto commitments will be realised. That’s why voting SNP twice matters; the alternatives are not only bonkers they are futile forms of masturbation that will lead to nothing more than a few stubborn stains.
The same applies to independence. The Greens and RISE can commit to that because nobody takes their commitments seriously. Their commitments mean nothing.
With great power comes great responsibility and the opposite is also true; with no power comes no responsibility.
0/T
Scottish ‘mince’
link to archive.is
Stalked by Wullie Rennie and the postman always rings thrice!
Three Lib/Dem leaflets from Wullie three days running by the postie. 🙁
“One of the best performers in Holyrood” ‘The Hootsman’
Sounds like the sort of calculator the Scotsman uses
Any vote you like unionist win
I’ll say this for the Greens, I think they genuinely believe they have a chance of winning a decent number of seats because they seem to be working hard in my area. I’ve had Green canvassers and several leaflets and mail shots through the door the past week or two.
Only other party I’ve heard a peep from is the SNP, not even a single sighting of the unionist parties. If the Greens hard work pays off and they get even 10 list seats that would perhaps otherwise have been Tory or Labour I’ll applaud that.
The SNP are left enough and shouldn’t go any farther in that direction. If they do they risk losing the sensible centre and you can’t do anything without them. At the same time, they are as green as the Greens were say 15 years ago.”
They are broadly similar to what Labour was before James Callaghan brought them to the end of that era. Huge differences on nukes and ofcourse self government but compare and contrasting SNP policies with the current red tory SLab freak show in action today, let alone the Bomber Bliar/Crash Gordon disaster, is a big mistake, for you.
Scottish voters are probably a bit clearer though.
@Janet
Voting SNP is absolutely unambiguous. Westminster is shitting itself.
Give them both barrels. SNP TWICE.
Janet I like your style, both barrels it is. Nothing could be clearer and we want them to fear us.
Radio shortbread confirming that some schools could be closed for weeks even months. (Ayr right! maybe more)
Edinburgh council is withholding their £1.5M per month … I’ll write that again.
That’s £1,500,000 per month which is their costs under the PFI contract.
They are also considering compensation. 🙁
No politician was hurt or involved in the recording of the discussion including Deputy Deadwood who is standing in Edinburgh
Good old auntie! 🙂
NeoconNat
“…you are all basically leftist tree-huggers in nationalist guises.”
Why do you insist in writing BTL on this blog to tell people here that they’re “all” this or that? Who the hell do you think you are to make such sweeping statements? Only a moron would do such a thing. Are you a moron? No? Then stop making sweeping generalisations on people you know eff all about.
The ‘Nat’ in your alias must surely stand for ‘BritNat’. At least, that’s how it seems to me.
crazycat says:
“In 2011 the LDs got just over 13% in the Highlands and Islands, but did not get any list seats because they won 2 constituencies. Elsewhere, they did get list seats on about 6%, because they won no constituencies.”
Roughly, very roughly, if you take the list percentage and divide it by the seats allocated so far plus one, if the results is greater than 5%, you could get list seats.
As you say, it does depend on other parties’ figures.
In 2011 the LDs got 3 list seats.
In MidScotland Fife they got 5.9% giving Willie Rennie his list seat.
In South Scotland Jim Hume got a seat with 5.4%.
In the NE Allison McInnes got in with 6.8%.
If the LDs drop much below this, there may be no LDs from these three regions.
However, even if the Carmichael Scandal damages them in Orkney and/or Shetland, they will like get at least one list instead. Sadly.
Total wipeout is possible, but unlikely.
@Neoconnat, You’re a fine troll, but there is an element of truth there.
I would far rather see Greens and RISE than unionist MSPs, but if they were needed to gain a majority for a second independence referendum, they would have the SNP bent over a barrel.
Independence isn’t their #1 priority, and if the SNP was forced to the hard left, we would have less chance of winning that second referendum.
The only realistic path towards self-government is taking the centre of the country with us. That means some tactical thinking from those on the left and forgetting about 60p tax rates. After independence, SNP support would naturally split into traditional left and right politics.
Progressive or ‘radical’ politics is more likely to have a far better chance in an independent Scotland, but if ever there was a day we had a right wing Scottish government, I could live with that so long as it was the choice of the Scottish people. IMO, basic democracy is at the heart of the independence debate.
I’ve had a small number of leaflets but they were all delivered by the postie. No sign of any activists. We had a street stall in the village the weekend before last, with no opposition. This is in a constituency which was solid LibDem until 2011, and in which a lot of the LibDem votes seem to have gone back to the Tories. (We expect the SNP vote to be around 30-35%.)
In contrast we’ve leafleted the entire village twice by hand (two leaflets at each drop), and we were ready to do a third run but the campaign manager has called us off saying it would be overkill.
We’re still working on the more rural areas, but I was out this morning driving round farms and isolated settlements and there are other teams working on other districts. That’s the second time round for these properties as well.
The Tories will be telephone canvassing and getting their well-heeled and geriatric vote out that way, but there’s absolutely no sign of boots on the ground apart from us. The non-SNP vote is largely legacy party support and some very rabid BritNats who don’t care how competent the SNP government is.
Call me dave I wouldn’t be surprised if the BBC somehow managed to turn the school closures thing into a positive story and then we will start to hear labour being mentioned. Wait for labour labour local authorities save millions by taking on private companies who have been accused of leaching millions from the public purse.
Its quite simple Neo they are not ready yet as political parties they are fringe parties they have no idea how to govern or could for that matter and so collect strays,their view is spintered through individualism and the mad clamber to climb up the UK political greasy pole, yes they are for indy but then indy is not a political ideology and is a broad church we even have a few neo liberals want it 😉
Now thats not me being desparaging of them because i remember another party that was exactly the same way back when i was a wee lad,it was full of nutters and lefties a few mad right wingers as well but very few moderates,it went through decades of soul searching always on the fringe trying to kick lumps out the system and getting nowhere,splits and fights until one day it grew up.
So i am always glad to see more people getting involved in politics regardless of their ideals if Rise/green becomes a grown up political party and isnt culled off by infighting then good luck to them but they should expect that to take oh about 50 years.
Though i have to say i am a bit surprised we havnt seen a center right party appear for indy,this misconception that indy is to the left is just yoon bullshit.
I’m off down the abattoir, to have a swatch at some entrails; probably as effective.
Yes, Proud Cybernat, ‘we’ have noticed that tendency… =grin=
The predictor appears to be based on 2007 when the Lib Dems didn’t stand a candidate in Clydesdale.
There are only 12 names on the list for each party in each region, if most of those names are also in constituencies then the 100%/100% would result in a situation where you run out of candidates.
Taking the North East in 2011 for example, on 100%/100% 10/10 constituencies would have been SNP, with 7 list seats left to distribute. the 1st and 2nd list seat would go to the 11th and 12th names on the SNP list. at which point there would be 5 seats left to fill with no remaining SNP candidates.
The Returning officer would have to take all the parties that were tied at that point (which would be all of them on 0 votes) and draw lots/cut cards or toss coins accordingly.
What Onwards said at 4.28 pm. I wish more people understood this.
I do understand people voting for a party they passionately support even if it doesn’t appear to have a snowball’s chance in hell. I did it myself for decades, and then look what happened. What I resent is that these people are making a dishonest and deceitful argument to sway people who are generally inclined to vote elsewhere, rather than making a case on their own merits.
If RISE and Green supporters put party advantage over independence that’s their choice and a perfectly valid one it is too. But they should be honest about it. Instead they’re falsely claiming that SNPx2 is “putting party advantage over independence”, and if that argument actually does damage the independence movement (as well it might) I for one will never forgive them.
A pro-indy election pact would have been the safest option for minimizing the number of Unionist members but would have had to have been agreed and arranged a year ago and firmly promoted since then.
The best remaining option for the past few months has been SNP 1 & 2.
Make sure you are registered to vote.
There’s a nice live Q&A with Mhairi Black & Humza Yousaf on facebook right now. The Q’s are piling in though.
That Q&A’s on facebook. oops
link to facebook.com
Proud Cybernat,
“most of the regulars” isn’t “sweeping” and isn’t even a generalisation.
If I said “all” the regulars, that would be a generalisation.
Stop being serious and stroppy over nothing; you give a bad impression.
I know you love that “how very dare you” stuff, but it would be wasted on a guy like me making light-hearted statements about politics.
Resist the temptation to respond and try and convince me you are really offended by any of this. There’s no need.
The wee mannies in the chamber look like jelly babies.
@Onwards
I totally agree with your post. For me this is about the democratic choice of the Scottish electorate. Sure, personally I’d prefer the SNP who look likely to be running our government for at least the next 5 years to be a little more left wing.
Truth is though, for me at least they are the ONLY potential government that will bring Scotland her Independence. As an alternative to a Tory led Westminster government or even a Labour led Scottish government the SNP sweep the board. Just common sense.
The Indy support and by association SNP support has increased so much almost certainly down to ex Labour supports like me finding out the truth about New Labour and dumping them.
We still need more to do so, the chances of winning many Tories over to the cause is small, NeoconNat is a NOT a good example of the Tories I would like to attract.
Finally, I would just like to say that I do believe that SNP, this time will once again have a majority in the Scottish Parliament and a mandate therefore from the Scottish people to hold another referendum if they so choose.
Will the be the case in 2020? Like you and the predictor above I have no idea, if an opportunity presents itself such as the EU referendum or anything else currently unforseen I believe we must take it.
First step is ensuring an SNP majority, that means SNP 1 and 2.
Onward, you’ve never been more correct;
“if the SNP was forced to the hard left, we would have less chance of winning that second referendum.”
That’s all that should matter right now, getting independence.
This troll label isn’t fair since I’m a fruitcake in real life too. We need a new category of some sort.
DerekM: “i have to say i am a bit surprised we havnt seen a center right party appear for indy”
That’s what I’m working towards. So far I have two people who are interested although one of them keeps trying to sell me scented candles.
“Resist the temptation to respond and try and convince me you are really offended by any of this. There’s no need.”
You made a sweeping generalisation of the folks who frequent this blog BTL. Stop trying to back-track. It’s there in black and white for anyone to see, no matter what weasle words you use to try and disdtance yourself from the self-evident meaning.
From your previous poting I get the very strong sense that you would aregue with yourself in an empty room about the colour of shite.
Just stop making your sweeping generalisations, act responsibly and you might just have a chance of convincing me you are not a BritNat troll.
So far, however…
DerekMsaid:
Interesting point that. If there are any people within the nominally Unionist parties (even the Tories) that would eventually switch to supporting independence under the pressure of diminishing electoral returns, they are all keeping their heads well down at the moment for the sake of party unity. Maybe the coming election results will start to shake the tree. Some time ago, Sillars (with others) tried to create a pro-indy Scottish Labour Party, I seem to recall, but the move was premature then.
I don’t think that being centre-right necessarily makes you irreversibly anti-indy, though. (That’s the preserve of the BNP, Orangists, etc.)
Onwards says:
“Independence isn’t their #1 priority, and if the SNP was forced to the hard left, we would have less chance of winning that second referendum. The only realistic path towards self-government is taking the centre of the country with us.”
I agree completely with that analysis. I believe if the far left begin to be seen as the face of Indy, then it’s all over.
While the left did campaign for IndyRef1, I do sometimes wonder if – for every Yes vote gained by Sheridan’s “comrades” talk, another might have been lost from the middle ground.
Looking at the groups where NO were strongest, in most respects they represent the opposite of the enthusiastic left.
I hope there will be a place for everyone in an independent Scotland, however for the moment the pro Indy centre needs to expand outwards in both directions. If the pro Indy bloc moved left (or more unlikely, moved right) then it won’t take increased support on board, it will lose support.
We will never convert the hardcore BritNat Tories, but we need to convince more right of centre voters.
[…] it upon himself to rebut the seat predictors in a piece called “The Limits of Science” (link to wingsoverscotland.com). He has a lot of fun putting funny numbers into the ‘Scotland Votes’ website […]
@NeoconNat
This troll label isn’t fair since I’m a fruitcake in real life too
It hasn’t passed unnoticed.
Proud Cybernat: “You made a sweeping generalisation of the folks who frequent this blog”.
No, we can falsify that very easily. Here’s what I said without edits or omissions;
“It seems to me that most of the regulars on here have a conflict of interest when it comes to the fight against RISE and the Greens. By that I mean you are all basically leftist tree-huggers in nationalist guises.”
Aside from the question of how seriously a sane person might take a statement like that, not to mention how inoffensive it is, we can see that I referred to “most of the regulars” which isn’t a generalisation as I understand it.
And when I said “you are all” it is clear that I was again referring to the same group which was… drum roll… “most of the regulars”.
There isn’t even ambiguity in that.
You must have something more meaningful you could be pretending to take offence at.
Anyway, in the spirit of cooperation, are you interested in buying scented candles by any chance? I’m asking on behalf of a friend.
No if’s , no buts , it MUST be SNP X 2 this time round .
galamcennalath, Onwards
You are both correct. The indyref energised many on the left who felt abandoned by Labour and the ever-fractious fringe left groupings, but if anything it largely scared the centre-right. They are not the monolithic “silent majority” of yoon propaganda, since many of them may vote SNP in the coming election, but they do tend to see independence as a chasm of uncertainty rather than as a golden opportunity for a better future for us and our kids. That’s the argument that still has to be won.
Which is why the SNP are being so cautious going in to this election. Nothing is possible if they don’t achieve a majority.
“You must have something more meaningful you could be pretending to take offence at.”
Like said before – I get the sense that you would happily argue with yourself in an empty room about the colour of shite.
And you can take your pal’s candles and shove them where the sun don’t shine. Better still, use fork handles.
Now away to a BritNat site where your neocon rantings will be more appreciated. Oh and this will be my last response to you on this little spat because I am well aware how the BritNat trolls operate – love to create discourse and thus put people off reading the thread.
It’s not going to happen, bub.
TTFN.
Oh and SNP x 2 + EU IN
Nice trails.
Earlier today I received my FREE copy of East Ren’s ‘The Extra’ paper, hand delivered through my letterbox. The difference being, it ALWAYS gets left on the doorstep, so this was a first.
Took a look outside and there was a team-handed squad of paper-persons delivering the same way to all the houses. What service eh?
SO I takes a gander inside the paper and what do I find on Page 15.. a full page advertisement from the Scottish Conservatives saying what they say best, nothing.
The curious thing is.. the lead article on the inside cover, regarding the honouring of a war hero, is continued on LHS Page 14. That’s quite convenient article placement don’t you think? Coincidence or what? I think not (no disrespect to the gent btw.)
Time for a walk from “Eastwood to Holyrood” 😉
Higher top ups for older woman pensioners says Deputy Deadwood, all found down the back of the Scottish sofa that keeps on giving.
——————————————————–
The Scottish Labour leader said her party would top up the pensions of women affected by changes to the system from Westminster.
Ms Dugdale said Labour would write to 80,000 women affected by changes, saying: “Through no fault of their own they are going to be worse off because of these changes.
————————————————————
It’s not even a devolved function,but hey ho,they don’t care because they’re in a quandary.
Why it’ll be Man sheds next! What’s she like eh!
Left, centre-left, centre, centre-right, right.
What does that mean?
Very little as far as Independence is concerned. You either support Independence or you don’t and going by the result in the referendum we still need a few more on our side and I’ll take anyone we can get.
Their is no left or right only Independence or Union. Nothing more.
call me dave said:
Ah, but they’ll do it when Labour win a majority at Westminster in 2020, won’t they?! =cough=
In other words call me dave, Dugdale is jumping on the SNP’s Mhairi’s Black’s work on this issue…they said fuck all about it until Mhairi raised the profile in the commons…they cannae even find a policy oan their ain.
Meanwhile did Labour ‘abstain’ when these new pension ages where being re arranged at the time…answers oan a poststamp.
Just a thought – but when the programmers wrote the code and algorithms maybe the had the foresight to factor in the wide spread corruption that 700,000 postal votes with allow.
After Ruth’s admission during the refurendum on live tv that she had seen the postal votes I had hoped another more full proof system might have been suggested and put in place.
I know how paranoid I sound but I don’t trust these unionist one bit. There’s too much for them to lose.
O/T Liam ‘O Hare put a tweet out earlier today, stating that Nicola Sturgeon wasn’t going to attend a hustings because Tommy Sheridan was on the platform.
Nicola Sturgeon just tweeted Liam ‘O Hare that this was incorrect.
Can I just say rumours and gossip just don’t ‘cut’ it anymair what wi social media immediately quashing such pish. I’d like to know exactly where ‘O Hare sourced this rumour from?
He’s even ‘insinuated’ Nicola’s tweet as ‘confirming’ that she will be appearing ‘despite’ Tommy Sheridan.
Think some people are up tae mischief here…big time.
Heedtracker
Thanks for the link to the Q & A. Followed it but can’t get the thing to play. Looking at the comments, I’m not the only one. Mine is just stuck on the still of Mhairi & Humza with the loading symbol spinning merrily away but nothing happening.
Perhaps the stream is overloaded-there’s 3.4k watching
@ K1
Of course there is mischief, surely you wouldn’t expect otherwise.
Divide and Conquer, sure you’ve heard of it. Fuck them I won’t be divided nor conquered and that is what worries them most.
SNP X 2 GIRFUY
@call me dave says:
14 April, 2016 at 5:10 pm
“Higher top ups for older woman pensioners says Deputy Deadwood, all found down the back of the Scottish sofa that keeps on giving.”
——–
Yeah, I saw that. Catering to their core vote with their magic money tree. Vastly exaggerated estimates from their tax grab will be used to promote a whole range of giveaways they won’t have to actually deliver.
There is a potential danger coming up in that Labour will not be unveiling its manifesto until 8 days before the vote, so they can gazump the SNP with last minute promises.
link to thenational.scot
No doubt more cash will be conjured up to go all out on a last minute ‘spectacular’..
A new Vow.. mostly likely on the NHS or education.
We all saw how the indyref Vow held back a Yes vote.
Will enough voters be fooled this time ?
If the SNP does slip in the polls due to last minute false promises, then every list vote will be needed. Both barrels as mentioned above.
Does my seat calculator look big in this?
SNPBADASS 2!
🙂 Thpnr
The LSE’s Democratic Audit predicts a landslide for the SNP in the constituencies, but the Lib Dems might hold the islands and the Tories do well in the south. But Labour will lose heavily.
link to democraticauditscotland.com
Thepnr wrote:
“There is no left or right only Independence or Union.”
With you all the way on that. Let every individual, organisation or other classify themselves and fight to gather support in their own ways and beliefs, promoting their own ideas, and then come the final referendum we will all pull together under the one banner again.
Do this and next time we will be back bigger, stronger, fitter and far better prepared for the fight. The blue tories have long since started their campaigning for the fight with their relentless attempts to demonise any idea of a referendum and they don’t give a jobby how they do it just as long as they do it.
We must all find our own ways to convince others and bolster our numbers, whether it be football fans getting the message out among their own, or the man in the pub passing round the ready-rubbed, or down at the mixed doubles bowling, or the students increasing the recruiting around the Universities etc etc etc.
No left, no right, bring all the souls towards the light.
Feck, am a poet an ah dinny no-it 🙂
Robert J. Sutherland says:
“They are not the monolithic “silent majority” of yoon propaganda, since many of them may vote SNP in the coming election, but they do tend to see independence as a chasm of uncertainty rather than as a golden opportunity for a better future”
Yes, all sorts of opinion. One interesting group are those who didn’t vote Yes last time, but would vote next time if it were provoked by EngExit of the EU dragging Scotland along. Also SNP voters who voted no (as you say).
For me the common concern of soft NO (and soft Yes) groups is their fear of the direction an Indy Scotland might take,
They probably want to see things continue much as at present except decisions made for Scotland by Scots, resulting in incremental changes for the better. In Scotland we do have a wide concensus for decent services, no WMDs and foreign wars, greater equality and opportunities. More so than England.
Any suggestions of big lurches to the Left (or Right), and the game’s a bogie. Everything the SNP do would appear to following the approach of showing moderation, in a Scottish context.
@K1
Yeah, clocked that tweet. Utter bollox.
The FMs answer is all that counts. The original twatter should recall what happened the last time someone attributed words or assumed attitudes to the FM. They’re still picking bits of Carmichael’s reputation out of the gutter and off the walls.
Perhaps the ballot papers should read London Labour, London Conservatives and London Liberals, even London Greens. The truth is they take orders from their London leadership.
Sticking the “Scottish” moniker seems to confuse some people that these parties even care about Scotland.
Just caught Ken Macintosh’s car video on the Herald what a star!
‘Things can only get better’…an attempt to get younger voters to get signed up for their vote. 🙂
He’ll be looking for a job maybe… don’t know where he is on the list.
I’m sure it will be in twitter land soon and will appear eventually.
Lollysmum says:
14 April, 2016 at 5:33 pm
Heedtracker
You need to be on facebook though. Also they may have finished. I only caught a little bit as its worth seeing Scottish history happening on a tablet. To see the 20 year old that defeated former shadow UK secretary of state is always extraordinary.
@Vronsky
Tiocfaidh ár lá?
Your day may come but will it be in Dublin or Edinburgh?
Thig ar latha.
Stoker says:
“… convince others … whether it be football fans getting the message out among their own, or the man in the pub passing round the ready-rubbed, or down at the mixed doubles bowling, or the students increasing the recruiting around the Universities etc etc etc.”
Yes. However, those strike me as the groups most like to have already been converted.
What about the rugby fans, the golf club members, the southern farmers at a stock sale, those whose jobs depend on the defence industry, the crofters living a hour from a decent shop, the retired from elsewhere in the UK, the woman running a successful business from home, workers on Highland estates, financial services staff in the cities, oil workers etc etc.
By no means are they all BritNat die hearts.
These are also the ones we also need to get on board in sufficient numbers. I have faith that the SNP’s approach will succeed. I fear others make Indy sound like something many of those literally prefer to avoid.
We can’t please all of the people. We do have to appeal to enough of them with what seems, to them, to be a positive case for Indy.
K1, Janet and Thepnr say sooth.
Any reduction in SNP seats will be seen as a victory for the Unionists. Once we are independent, we can go rainbow.
Heads Cameron wins and tails Jeremy loses! If the Labour leader manages to mobilise working class support Cameron will secure the victory. The more votes that Corbyn can deliver the higher will be the plaudits for the skill and cunning of George Osborne and statesman like leadership of Cameron. It is a repeat of the role that Labour played in the Scottish referendum.
Bella article quote. I have a sore head.
Scotland remains England abstains.
The Greens based all their seat predictions last time on that predictor. Instead of the 10 they thought were in the bag they got 2. From local campaigning I don’t detect much upswing for the Greens at all. I’m not saying that there isn’t but no visual evidence so far.
@Stoker
Thanks for that, good post. Nothing should get in the way of Independence, the more diverse our support is then the more likely we will win.
Powerful foes are making great efforts to divide our unanimity, might deflect some though I’m standing firm. I know this sounds cheesy but this is the most important “cause” I have ever taken part in. It’s important because of the way things are going when Scotland is ruled by a Tory government though I very much doubt that the Red Tory would be any better for Scotland.
Time to get away from the accusations of spongers and scroungers that are written daily by you know who. I wan’t our country to take it’s own path and leave London to parade on the big stage if it feels the need to do so.
We are winning this fight over democracy, it’s places like Wings that continue to allow us to do so. We won’t lie down nor get back in the box. Just keep reminding the Yoons.
One way or another. They’re toast.
In that advert in The Extra, they say..
I’ll say, “Your vote choice to hold the SNP as government”
(a Scotsman – 14/04/16)
If Scotland is indeed on course for a 50%+ vote for the Scottish National Party, it would only seem reasonable people would want to vote to be on that winning side in the first place.
Additionally, the SE2016 could also set a new Scottish international world record for the largest number of understandable abstentions from previously inclined union party voters. To vote or not to vote.. that is their option.
Aye, there are limits of science as much as there are limits of human nature.
Times two!
A high SNP total percentage vote is essential, even if it doesn’t result in extra list seats.
Pre independence is not the right time to give any vote to any party other than the SNP.
SNP+SNP in 2016, SNP in 2017.
If votes for the Greens or RISE deny an SNP majority government, we are doomed.
“I fear others make Indy sound like something many […] prefer to avoid.”
call me dave says:
14 April, 2016 at 5:57 pm
Just caught Ken Macintosh’s car video on the Herald what a star!
suggestion ken, another one bits the dust
@NeoconNat
Still here! Yawn.
galamcennalath wrote:
“..those strike me as the groups most likely to have already been converted.”
That’s complacency! Besides, the examples i gave were just that, examples. It would be impossible for me to have listed every single example.
I was making the point that every single individual has a role to play, outwith left/right party stuff. We all have the ability to convince and convert others to our cause – the fight for Scottish Independence.
People convinced of the arguments are hardly likely to vote for Unionist parties whether they’re left, right, top, middle, bottom or left behind, are they?
For me, converting doubters to the cause is far more important than wasting time on petty party pigeon holes. I’ll convert then they can choose their own mode of transport to get them there.
I’ll always try, but not too much focus, on trying to get them to catch the big SNP bus but lets just put it this way, if there was no way on earth i was going to convert that individual because of, say, their stubborn hatred for Wee Eck OR the SNP, you better believe i’m going to urge them in the direction of another pro-indy party.
A firm belief in Scottish independence is more important than pp .
Whatever it takes!
BTW, if it’s elections we’re talking about then it’s SNP x 2.
🙂
being a non political party member this box am in is very full of INDEPENDENTISTAS , ah canny swing ah cat.
ronnie anderson
being a non political party member this box am in is very full of INDEPENDENTISTAS , ah canny swing ah cat.
oddly enough, this box is also full of INDEPENDENTISTAS and more than one cat. i would try swinging them tho’
Here’s another wee wake up call worth thinking about.
Some Celtic fans i know are as pro independence as you can get but you will NEVER get them to vote SNP. Why? Simply because they are as anti-monarchy as you’ll find and currently the SNP favour retaining those parasites.
Now, you can forget any arguments of ‘but that can be sorted after independence’ etc etc because these people have principles, standards or whatever you want to call them and they’re not for sale. That’s how they see it and that just has to be accepted and you find a way around that and you get them to vote for one of the other pro-indy parties. Job done! Converted!
Thankfully i didn’t have to try converting them as they are already that way inclined but i just wanted to show that despite our greatest hopes not everyone can be sold on the SNP but one way or another a majority can be sold on Scottish independence.
Morag: drat it, I’m in my late forties now, looks like I need those reading glasses after all.
@Stoker
Take it you persuaded the Celtic supporters to vote for the Greens LOL!
“Simply because they are as anti-monarchy as you’ll find and currently the SNP favour retaining those parasites. ”
It will never change as part of the union, but there is a chance it may with independence.
Thing is gerry with Independence literally anything is possible.
Rule nothing out, Independence first though.
Anybody know when the SNP manifesto is getting released?
HandandShrimp
Wednesday at 10 am for the official launch.
Thepnr 🙂
But that is the whole point Gerry, we need to convince all sorts to ensure that we get to independence. Some people will NEVER vote SNP, for their own individual reasons, but we need these people to get us over the line.
We need to find what drives each individual doubter and work with that if we are to achieve our goal. There’s absolutely no point in discussing what might transpire in an independent Scotland if the vehicle isn’t going to get us there.
Thanks Marcia 🙂
@ Gerry
It will never change as part of the union, but there is a chance it may with independence.
And thats what the hard of hearing need to understand, would the Scottish people in a Independant Scotland pay for the Pomp & Circumstance in London & the Hangers on, I dont think so.
Stoker,
I see your point. But if they are so anti monarchy, why vote for any unionist party. If they do that, they should be 100% sure they will never get rid of the monarchy.
So what are they voting?
@Stoker
Some Celtic fans i know are as pro independence as you can get but you will NEVER get them to vote SNP. Why? Simply because they are as anti-monarchy as you’ll find and currently the SNP favour retaining those parasites.
——
If the Royals are such a big deal for anyone, then Green is an option on the list, but you will find no mainstream party proposing to get rid of them in the constituency vote.
In that case, surely SNP is still better for independence and more chance of a future referendum on the issue. What is the alternative? A unionist party that supports the monarchy?
I think most people here would still choose to keep them. Personally, I couldn’t care less about the Royals, but accept they are good for tourism and Americans love the sheer novelty of it all. I don’t really think it is a priority for most people ?
As far as I understand it the SNP is neither pro nor anti the monarchy – such questions only arise once we are a normal country.
” But if they are so anti monarchy, why vote for any unionist party.”
Eh? They don’t, they’re leftie SSP types.
That pigeon hole on the left of the dookit.
@Onwards
I certainly wouldn’t vote to keep the monarchy. Personal choice I know and one of the issues that may divide us.
However, when we talk of welfare i.e. subsidised by the state, it seems to me that not all welfare is treated the same. Royal family welfare good, no job and skint then sanction punishment.
Keep the Royal family but why keep paying them?
They are the largest recipients of state welfare in this country with no chance of being sanctioned. Personally I’ve nothing against them let them support themselves.
William and Kate jetting all over the world in OUR name just doesn’t cut it. They are on the buroo same as our worst off, nobody wants to talk about that.
Who will sanction the Royal Family for failing to sign on in time?
@ronnie anderson
The main point is eyes on the prize Ron. 🙂
If people wan’t that second chance then they have to consider putting aside many individual policy differences. The SNP can hold that gate open for the electorate but people of all political persuasions have to walk through it willingly. They have to want someone in place willing to act on their mandate.
Building that better nation and fairer society isn’t an overnight exercise. Its going to be a long haul hard effort. There’s a lot of damage to repair both societally and economically and its going to take effort from every strata of the electorate. The rich, the poor, the public and the civic. ALL have to want it. They’re going to have to put aside differences and natural aversions. They’re going to have to set aside grudges real and imagined, because what they’re up against is so much worse.
@Macart
Don’t mean to embarrass you but never a truer word spoken.
We are all different, may have different goals and ideas in how to achieve them. If I believe though in the people that read here on Wings, we maybe are not all that much different.
Independence is our goal, left, right, black, white, rich, poor we are all supporters of Independence. Lets try not to forget that.
@Macart
Well said ! 🙂
The SNP / Alex Salmond basically said the monarchy would continue because constitutionally it would, unless decided otherwise. The (so called with deference to Robert Peffers) Union of Crowns 1603 predated the Union (or Parliaments) 1707.
So it’s a question of how much support will the SSP/Left get at Holyrood while part of the union, versus how much support would SSP/Left get in an independent Scotland.
They can think that through surely.
@Macart
In a nutshell 🙂
I believe strongly and uncompromisingly in democracy and equality, so, of course, I support the policy of retaining the Queen as head of state.
Anyone who thinks there’s a contradiction there needs to wise up.
Anyway, I did proportional spreadsheets for all seats and all regions, so that SNP 45.4% in 2011 compared to 52% in a poll, I multiplied the percentage in each constituency by 52 and divided by 45.4, same for the other parties. I didn’t bother readjusting to 100% total.
But on that basis I found discrepancies with Shandwick, so it has its own algorithms to allow for – something. Maybe a loyalty factor, no idea.
The word for this is “gaming”, even with actual opinion polls, and the word gaming is appropriate, it’s not real life. On top of everything else local factors can reverse a poll prediction.
@ PR – Sorry sweetie, you’re wrong!
@ Onwards – For your benefit i will say this one last time. I’ve made the point as clear as it can be made, go back and read what the messages within my posts are all about.
I couldn’t care less what Tom, Dick or Harry think about the finer points to certain issues. There are a lot of deluded folk thinking that the SNP is the only way.
These people need to realise that there are thousands of folk out there who love the idea of Scottish independence but they would NEVER vote for the SNP, EVER!!
We need to convince and convert as many folk to the merits of independence first and foremost and if that means pointing them in the direction of another pro-indy party then that’s exactly what we must do.
If we can also persuade them to vote SNP, as well as convert them, then so much the better but facts are facts and we need to realise that not every independence supporter can be sold on our party of choice.
We’re not talking about the monarchy not being a priority for most people. We’re talking about the various reasons why people may not vote for the SNP, that point was clearly made and that example i gave was only one example.
There are as many reasons for not voting SNP as there are people who will not vote SNP. I can’t speak for all those people, you’ll have to ask them yourself.
We are talking about the importance of Scottish independence and how it’s more important to focus on converting doubters than party promos.
As for your claim on the monarchy being good for tourism…well…that’s a different debate for another day but i’d briefly say….cobblers!!
🙂
Any pre electoral pact by the SNP to not stand in the list in order to allow another party a free run would almost certainly result in a protest after the ballot to have them treated as a single party attempting to play the system. The protest wouldn’t be before because that’d tip their hand. That said you might regard the SNP putting all their constituency candidates on their list as limiting their chances in any region to only 12 seats.
On the other hand given Labour are leaving it to the last minute to produce their manifesto means there’s precious little time for postal voters to make an informed decision. You’d almost be forgiven for thinking they were deliberately throwing this election.
@NeoconNat
…what a shame! I had hoped for better. You cannot believe in equality and support monarchy, the HofL or any other relic of an Imperial past.
A strange mix to have democracy and monarchy under the same roof.
Anyone who thinks there’s a contradiction there needs to wise up.
Janet Weiss?
Stoker, you little ripper. I knew there’d be someone with a skull in here somewhere.
It’s not about politics, it’s about getting the boot off our throat. I look forward to the politics later and, based on what I’ve seen, I expect that to be a walk in the park.
Clootie: “You cannot believe in equality and support monarchy”
And I don’t. I said I support the policy of retaining the monarchy. The policy itself is sound. The idea and reality of monarchy is a preposterous insult that no sane person could take seriously.
You need to remember that morons and retards have votes.
@NeoconNat
You still here? Bore..
Gerry
I don’t waste my time trying to persuade doubters to vote for the SNP. I find out what drives them and i work with that. Getting them to believe in the arguments for Scottish independence is more important than being a recruiting sergeant for the SNP.
And while we’re on the subject, i think a few folk need to focus on those within their own SNP party who apparently voted ‘No’ at the ref instead of chastising those who choose not to vote SNP.
Anyway, folks, getting the numbers on side will always be the priority that will see us get over the line. Thinking we can entice everyone over to the SNP is sadly a grand delusion that will get us nowhere. Would be nice if we could but we need to realise and accept that as being unrealistic.
I don’t like it either that some smaller groups are attempting to break the SNP numbers but that’s up to the SNP to use their vast resources in an attempt to counter those challenges.
Meanwhile, they can have my 2 votes as per usual while i continue to look for possible converts to the cause for Scottish independence by hook or by crook.
Toodle-pip troops!
🙂
O/T
Angus Robertson on BBC Question Time soon and hope he sets the record straight about Labour’s PFI scandal.
Oh here, I realised a quite major thing the SNP did that nobody else did, and haven’t seen it pushed at all.
The SNP brought in RET on a gradual careful basis as the budgets allowed, and it’s now on all Calmac routes, and what a difference. Even compared to the usual book of six, it’s cheaper on at least the one I used today (using my last book of six ticket), car and me, Lochaline – Fishnish.
Not sure if it’s on all routes yet.
link to worldatlas.com
O/T
Has anybody watched this? I watched at a meeting in Dunoon tonight. Pretty compelling viewing It’s and hour and a half.
link to youtube.com
O/T Spotted this on football forum
Scottish League clubs ready to pull the plug on Sportscene.
Well done to Brian Topping for standing up for Scotland.
The present deal is worth £1.4 million per year but Topping said the BBC would have to offer between £3 million and £4 million before the 42 clubs would agree to continue.
O/T It emerged this week that the broadcaster had extended its rights to cover the FA Cup, having signed a deal worth a reported £100 million in 2013 at over £1 million a game. The BBC also pays £68 million per year for Match of the Day highlights.
And
Angus B MacNeil MP ?@AngusMacNeilSNP 34m34 minutes ago
I also told #Commons on debate on BBC that beeb should also make up difference of years of years of short changing Scottish Football.
@ Macart My eyes are never of the prize I just cant get my head round some peoples stupidity (compairing Staples & Paperclips)& whitch one holds the best,before the paperwork is done.
Ah wee deviation from Apples n Oranges lol.
Part of a letter I sent out to the press today
“I took the trouble to total the FPTP votes in all the seats in Scottish Parliament Highland Region and compared it with the total list votes on the Highland list. Bar a very few votes for minor parties on the list these totals were almost the same and a perfectly acceptable proportional result would have been achieved by basing it on the FPTP totals.
Only one vote, the FPTP one, would I believe have been very beneficial to the minor parties like the Greens and RISE as it would have forced them to put up candidates in each seat and do the work of going round canvassing for support for them which is the only way for them to significantly increase their support”
Thing that winds me up to feck with the SNP is near election time it vote SNP x2, it’s the only ticket to Independence…, blah, blah….
If they really wanted my vote, certain ministers should have got off their respective arses and addressed my grievance with a modicum of professionalism or even simple courtesy. It really wasn’t very complicated. Sadly they didn’t give a flying fk then or anytime since, but all of a sudden they want my vote.
They’ll probably get it, unless I abstain, but only because I want Independence and sadly nobody else can deliver it, but the SNP will play on that meal ticket once too often. I don’t like to be taken for granted and/or treated like dirt, least of all by some smarmy politician whether they are SNP or otherwise.
WOW! ITV News at 10 just came clean on the NHS Performance
figures across the UK.
The 4 Hour A & E target in England is falling and now sits well below their target at Only 87.8%.
These are the worst NHS England Figures since records began
English NHS Junior Doctors Hunt the *unt Hunt.
They should have a look in the Gynaecology Dept, IMO. lol
Unbelievably, they went on to mention that Scotland’s
NHS is hitting 93%!!!!!
Labour’s Welsh NHS is only at 77% and N. Ireland I believe
sits at the bottom at circa 73%.
Can we get this on Bill Boards Across the land and ask Labour’s Dipity Dug and Jaba the Baily how they compare their English Master’s NHS performance against the Scottish NHS, which they say is in crisis.
The EBC just revealed a 3rd tier story to say the NHS England figures were bad at 87.8% and that Scotland had done better, but refused to reveal just how far better Scotland had done.
I only watched the EBC news to confirm my thoughts that they would not lead with a Major story like this, and that they would never show Scotland’s successful A & E figures, in comparison.
The good old propaganda channel never let’s me down.
You can rely on the EBC to be unreliable in giving you the full story!
Thepnr, I’m not boring, don’t be mean.
You aren’t either. You’re a special, caring, unique, conscientious, and beautiful person. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.
No strings attached.
OT – RET (Road Equivalednt Tarrif)
Yes, it’s the remainder of the Western Isles (Hebrides and Clyde) routes that have recently been brought in.
Anyone interested it’s here:
link to transport.gov.scot
I was wondering about the Northern Isles – the LibDems have complained saying it’s political – lying as always sadly – and the answer is this:
“… for the Northern Isles, implementing RET now or in the next few years, would mean an increase on a range of fares currently available. We explained that our intention is to phase in the introduction of RET fares over a much longer time-frame so that no one will pay more for a RET fare that their current standard single fare.”
I vaguely remember RET being something like £5 for the car, and say 0.80p per nautical mile, similar structure for passengers). I guess the Northern Isles already work out cheaper than this.
Follow up to my earlier NHS England disastrous A & E stats.
The Worst since records began.
Sky News, or the Murdoch Manipulation Channel, doesn’t touch the NHS Scandal what so ever!
They went on to show you the Front Page Stories on
the leading English Propaganda papers, where you guessed it,Not one of them cover this Major life threatening story?
I did think for a moment that the Daily Star was going that way with the Headline of “Giant Rats”, but no they didn’t refer to the Westminster Politicians driving their NHS into the ground and on into private hands
@Sinky
Angus Robertson might well get grief about his question in WM yesterday. On Daily Politics today they ran an item checking his numbers quoted for HMRC staff chasing tax avoiders and DWP staff hounding Welfare Claimants. They got on some ‘fact checker’ who said his numbers were out of date for HMRC and didn’t include some of the staff. To be fair he was being largely supportive of Robertson but Jo Coburn couldn’t conceal her glee as she announced to the world that he should really get his facts right.
Anybody no uasin there Tightrope fur ah wee while gie,s ah shout ah hiv Ejit ah would like tae string up.
@Stoker
Points worth pondering for sure.
Let’s save any wrath we have though for those who associate themselves with Unionism, plenty to choose from. I’m talking of McTernan, McDougal, Murphy(haha), Rennie, Davidson need I go on?
All of the above are a waste of space but the ones I really hate are not politicians, oh no.
It’s the propagandists from he BBC.
Louise White, Glenn Campbell (why two nn’s?), Gary Robertson, Hayley Millar, Kay with an e and everyone else associated with the “Good Morning Scotland” or Kaye Adams when she can be bothered to appear program.
I really hate the Unionist parties and supporters that lie and obfuscate in order to hide the truth. Most of all though I hate the lying BUM that does their job for them.
@Neoconnat
50%.
I’d say your postings are 50% interesting provocative viewpoints and 50% outright trolls.
Not bad.
How can your Scotland begin to flourish whilst overshadowed by someone else’s government?
Here in beautiful Glasgow, we said yes to Scotland becoming an independent country. Factoid 🙂
We have the power of the pen, vote wisely and Let Glasgow and the land of Scotland Flourish once again. You know you want to.
Purple and peach XX
@Thepnr
Agree. The jobsworths who broadcast the Unionist memes without thinking are beyond saving. They’re for sale to the highest bidder.
Let us pass them by on our way to a better future.
Indy, I should probably be satisfied with that. Thanks. I bet the 50% you think are trolly are the ones I meant sincerely though.
Anyway.
SNP x 2
O/T Made the mistake of watching Scotland 2016 tonight (the first time in ages), and there was Anna Burnside of the Daily Record triangulating like fury over the Edinburgh PFI debacle, “It’s everyone pointing the finger, saying ‘It wisnae me'”, and even cynically rehearsing the Tory line about the SNP government being at fault for not doing building inspections. Blood pressure soaring again. Jeez, how low can that programme go…?
One of the main things I did during the Ref and after for the GE was push the idea that people should think about whether the BBC was biased. I’d found that while most people didn’t trust newspapers, they did trust the BBC and were surprised when I said it was biased. I just said to watch how it reported anything they actually knew something about, or do a bit of online research.
I know people who’ve said they’ve recently changed from trusting the BBC to realising it really is very biased in the way it reports.
Give it time and the BBC will be dead, as far as its ability to indoctrinate is concerned.
@NeoconNat
Ah, mind-reading. Perhaps I’m bluffing …
NHS Scotland got a mention on the BBC…just. “England’s A&E report their worst ever figures they are still better than Wales but not as good as Scotland.” And their endeth the detail.
Well well. Sorry OT.
QT in Doncaster goes code red, audience giving TOries a hard time, DD losing control.
Angus Robertson and lady in audience go in for the kill.
Whoops!
Oh. LIVERPOOL FC. What a game!
Angus Robertson absolutely nailing QT tonight.
Rapturous applause every time he makes a contribution. (Bar one cry of ‘rubbish’ from a guy who turned out a bit of a zoomer).
Reckon the SNP could win Doncaster….lol
@ Effijy 5 news lead with NHS England & different Boards that are in trouble Eleanor Bradford wasent available for comment
yesindyref2said:
Yes. It may take some time, but yes. What puzzles me mightily though is that everyone in BBC Scotland seems totally blind to the likely eventual destruction of their precious brand. Either it’s outright hubris, or they are in total denial to what’s going on (plausible, since BBC Scotland seems to be heavily populated by dedicated Labourites) or it’s a deliberate diehard strategy of “Union or bust”.
I can’t help but wonder if there is anyone in there savvy enough to realise that there’s a significant problem that needs addressing before it’s too late. Oh to be a fly on the wall at times in PQ!
This post is about off-topic
Here’s a couple of videos I thought I’d share with y’all from off-topic:
link to youtube.com
link to youtube.com
Just like the science of polling and predictions, it’s a race to the finish.. cheers tya BDTT 🙂
Thepnr wrote:
“It’s the propagandists from the BBC.”
Without a doubt, public enemy No1.
Time for me to throw another log on the fire and hit the sac.
Ciao for now folks!
A visual feast of charts , expertly executed, and a searing indictment of the total utter mince of predictor seats.
The corporate media will never provide us with a legitimate platform for free and fair debate.The Tories continue to gorge themselves on our land and its people with their malicious and vindictive scorched earth policy.Meanwhile, the Unionist Parties in Scotland blow hot air oot their mooths.They make you laugh, greet and boak all at the same time.
The defining value of journalism is honesty and that’s why this site is where our voice gets louder.All of us need to be active citizens as we bide our time on our journey to independence.We are on our way.
SNP X 2
Angus Robertson is such a star as well as many of our SNP MPs. We are so lucky we voted them in.
SNP x 2 and EU in.
Stoker at 9.58
Whit? I have met no SNP member who voted No at the referendum and believe me I meet a hell of a lot of them
@ geeo He certainly was ah yooner, the gay in the red jersay got to answer him back ( there would be no need for austerity if the Taxes were payed.
@Lanarkist
QT in Doncaster? But … Doncaster is till in Scotland! Just google “doncaster part of scotland”
@Robert J. Sutherland
It;s getting there. It needs sites like Wings to have the occasional go at it, Newsnet / Bateman / Robertson, and all of us as well.
Get rid of that media bias and Scotland is Independent.
On that kind of thing just had a look at the Herald, and an article there about Davidson which is trying to say SNP like the Conservatives – both Tories. Ah, well, their circulation is plummeting which is a shame for the good business section but no loss for the anti-SNP / anti-Indy “news” / politics section.
For anyone who’s missed QT which I think is till on, ye can go ontae iplayer live and restart the programme, saves waiting for it to upload onto iplayer later:
link to bbc.co.uk
Angus was awesome.
BTW, afore a go:
“No strings attached.” ?
” ah hiv Ejit ah would like tae string up.” ?
Would they be hairy strings by oany chance?
🙂
_________________________
@ Dave McEwan Hill
Couldn’t possibly tell you Dave but that’s been mentioned several times from various sources since our referendum, including in the comments here on WOS. Could never understand it myself but surely you must have heard or read about it?
Sleep well Wingers!
Simply SNP X 2 at Holyrood upcoming to cut through the shit and begin the Union Treaty abrogation process.
All else is fan dancing whilst pissing in ones underpants.
New conservative troll
Son your making an arse of yoursel!
If it’s humour, it’s not funny
If its political it has no foundation
If it’s just friends your looking for, you’re going about it the wrong we
If it’s a realise from what ever is upset you, go sort the problem at source
Your playing a kazo at a classic recital!
Apologies for being O/T … tangentially at least. 😉
I saw this on Facebook earlier tonight. I don’t want to say I can’t really believe this is happening but there again … I can’t believe this is happening.
link to facebook.com
So far this appears to be the only location I have seen or heard about instances of people being told that voting SNP twice is illegal. However, as my old Granny used to say … there is no smoke without fire!
The SNP doesn’t have a policy of retaining the monarchy in Scotland
What was put forward was that post referendum Scotland would respect the position of the current monarch and she would still remain Queen
Nobody suggested that would be adopted as a policy ongoing with her majesty’s issue and nor could they because that would be a matter for the SNP members to decide for their own party, other political parties would have their own ideas as to their own positions
Retention of the monarchy by Scotland might be good, or it might not but one thing I know that would be pretty certain if retention were to be accepted they would be treated in an Independent Scotland as any other wealthy land owners, it would cost them money and they’d be losing quite a bit of their garden if the SNP are the the Government
Question Time
Angus Robertson’s a lovely bloke but he forgets where he is at times, it’s not subtitles those audiences need it’s dictionaries, or, well they could start with brain cells
My lovely relatives in Wolverhampton are exactly the same
They’re my family and everything but quite frankly they’re brain dead, it’s OK I tell them that regularly and they tell me I’m a brainwashed cult follower under that evil witch Sturgeon who’s got me in her spell
No argument or reason prevails because they’ve read it in the newspaper and seen it on the news so any amount of protestations by me are totally useless, as far as they are concerned Scotland is subsidised by England because we have nothing and let that be an end to it and it’s all dangerous talk and disrespectful to England who keeps us, so stop it at once
I even gave them a wee blue book, they took one look saw the wings and it was immediately decried as Nazi sedition and how can I stay in such a country and when it all goes wrong they’ll take me in even though I was born and bred here by my Edinburgh Daddy
There you have it, and insight into my English Rellies and if a large meteor were to strike and wipe half of them out they’d not only barely notice as long as it didn’t hit their street they’d show more concern if the local bowling club had to be closed for repairs
There are some things more important than politics
Angus Robertson awesome.
Charts on seat distribution brilliant particularly
the one where SNP get 100% of the vote. How no?
SNPx2
@Dr Jim
I’ve got rellies like that,much closer to home. My mother now talks behind my back about Sturgeon, I’ve found out. That will be in retaliation for telling her that the only thing truthful in the Rancid, was the date.
I thought Angus was great fun, an absolute masterclass in reading the room, encouraging it, and turning it on that posh Tory.
Ol Dumblebum was losing his grip/temper at points.
I don’t know how anybody can predict anything with circa 700,000 postal vote applications.
Going back to the GE The Postal Vote numbers for Moray jumped by c6,000 I believe. The Tory vote increased almost by 5000 on the previous GE.
There is no excuse in a country the size of Scotland in electorate terms for that many postal votes. If Robert Mugabe pulled that postal vote stunt then the Brit Nat Press and Media would be screaming foul, well at least until some Anglo Brit Mining etc Company had got the deal it wanted.
I note the O2 and 3 merger is being scrutinised. I wonder if their respective support for a Naw vote will see such a merger being waved through by the Brit Monopoly Commission? Will the EU look the other way as well since we had no friends there during the Referendum?
The corrupt Banana Monarchy is alive and well and it isn’t shooting arrows in Bhutan!
Andrew, pick on someone “you’re” own size.
Am I the only one thinking that labour leaving their election vows (manifesto) to the final week of the election period could be them trying to repeat better togethers late swing on the vote by gaining more media coverage leading right up to the vote?
They will promise the earth no doubt, here’s hoping we have learned what they are really about.
I haven’t read all the comments, and I’m sure this has been said before, but I’m going to say it anyway: you’re wrong to suggest that a 50/50 split in the list vote should return a 50/50 split in the number of MSPs elected from the lists. Even in a scenario where one party takes all of the constituency seats, this isn’t a guaranteed – nor even an expected – outcome. The maximum variation on a 50/50 split is 6 seats (ie. 31:25). None of your results exceed this margin.
Seats calculators work by feeding in historical data and opinion polling on top of whatever arbitrary numbers you give it. So you would expect there to be some difference in what is achieved by each party on a similar vote share. This is particularly true for the constituency vote where with a margin of less than 0.1%, a party could win all but one seat. In addition, all of the results are possible depending on where each party wins seats.
@Valerie
I asked my rellies if they’d ever met David Cameron or Miliband or any of those folk and of course they hadn’t
When I told them I’d met Nicola Sturgeon on a few occasions and half the Scottish government as have loads of folk in Scotland and that I’m sent regular emails and videos and that we call our politicians by their first names they couldn’t believe it
And you’d think that would be it you’re in, but no, they’re not real politicians if you can just talk to them and they’re not surrounded by the secret goon squad like the big important ones in that London that wouldn’t give you the time of day unless they were cornered
I just wish we had politicians you’re not allowed to talk to, bet we’d feel important then eh
I know one thing that’s definitely going to be in Kezias manifesto, Scottish Labour he he he are making a pensioner top up offer even though pensions are reserved she’s going to offer Scottish pensioners more money
Now that’s what you call despicable politics in the hope of saving your Arse by making a promise that’s completely impossible and that’s why they’re holding it back, it’s what my Faither used to call just in time to be too late (to scrutinise and for her to be made an Arse of)
Kezia’s going to do “A Murphy”
I haven’t read all the comments, and I’m sure this has been said before, but I’m going to say it anyway: you’re wrong to suggest that a 50/50 split in the list vote should return a 50/50 split in the number of MSPs elected from the lists. Even in a scenario where one party takes all of the constituency seats, this isn’t a guaranteed – nor even an expected – outcome. The maximum variation on a 50/50 split is 6 seats (ie. 31:25). None of your results exceed this margin.
Seats calculators work by feeding in historical data and opinion polling on top of whatever arbitrary numbers you give it. So you would expect there to be some difference in what is achieved by each party on a similar vote share. This is particularly true for the constituency vote where with a margin of less than 0.1%, a party could win all but one seat. In addition, most of the results are possible depending on where each party wins seats and how much support there is in any given region. Only the ones where parties win seats without having any votes are impossible and even they’re only wrong because of the margin for error that is used to round out the results a little better.
Let’s be honest, seat calculators aren’t accurate. However, the more realistic the data you put in, the more realistic the results you get it (and vice versa).
If the SNP get back in at Holyrood with a majority they should immediately change the voting system to first past the post!!!!
Instant end to all this unionist waffle. Surely if its democratic enough for Westminster, its democratic enough for Holyrood too???
Pro-independence mega majority for the foreseeable.
With 95% ignored down there and 100% in charge up here, has the word ‘inevitable’ ever been more apt?
Trebles all round.
Sorry, just back from Islay and may have been drinking too much.
@galamcennalath
My first reaction has to be, if they are serious, why aren’t they contesting all seats?
Because not every party can afford dozens and dozens of lost deposits?
Well, I think this is far enough down the page to go O/T…
Just picked this up, while having my dip into tomorrow’s papers before turning in.
RE: SNP MP Kirsty Blackman. Here’s a quote from The National…
“Asked if she thought Commons officials should get a better handle on Scottish slang to head off future misunderstandings, Blackman admitted SNP MPs probably weren’t using Scots words enough to justify it.”
The subject was the word “MINCE”. Since when was “MINCE” “Scottish slang”??? Hansard has to get its head around the fact that Scots is a UK language and “mince” is not a purely Scots word.
This is from “Oxford Dictionaries”…
link to oxforddictionaries.com
“mince
Pronunciation: /m?ns/
verb
1 [with object] (often as adjective minced) Cut up (food, especially meat) into very small pieces, typically in a machine: minced beef
More example sentences Synonyms
2 [no object] Walk with short quick steps in an affectedly dainty manner: there were plenty of secretaries mincing about.”
Maybe they didn’t understand the use of “mince” as meaning “rubbish” but, really, they need educated. Here’s The National archived link:-
link to archive.is
Well, I think this is far enough down the page to go O/T…
Just picked this up, while having my dip into tomorrow’s papers before turning in.
RE: SNP MP Kirsty Blackman. Here’s a quote from The National…
“Asked if she thought Commons officials should get a better handle on Scottish slang to head off future misunderstandings, Blackman admitted SNP MPs probably weren’t using Scots words enough to justify it.”
The subject was the word “MINCE”. Since when was “MINCE” “Scottish slang”??? Hansard has to get its head around the fact that Scots is a UK language and “mince” is not a purely Scots word.
This is from “Oxford Dictionaries”…
link to oxforddictionaries.com
“mince
Pronunciation: /m?ns/
verb
1 [with object] (often as adjective minced) Cut up (food, especially meat) into very small pieces, typically in a machine: minced beef
More example sentences Synonyms
2 [no object] Walk with short quick steps in an affectedly dainty manner: there were plenty of secretaries mincing about.”
Maybe they didn’t understand the use of “mince” as meaning “rubbish” but, really, they need educated. Here’s The National archived link:-
link to archive.is
Posted twice?
I apologise. The software on Wings usually susses that out and doesn’t let you. So I blame the software!
8=)
@Stoker, point is the SNP is the ONLY choice in the constituency vote for those who may support independence.
Sure, there will be those who don’t want to vote SNP for all sorts of reasons, valid or not. And it may then make sense to urge a Green vote or whatever on the list.
But it is still worthwhile pointing out the alternative if they don’t hold their nose and vote SNP on the constituency whilst looking at the bigger picture.
It’s like that idiot Loki the rapper on the STV page recently, saying he is going to abstain because the SNP aren’t socialist enough right now.
Look at the alternative! – It’s accepting the status quo and Tory governments we don’t vote for. The logical position for all indy supporters is to still vote SNP on the constituency as a practical means to an end – even if you don’t agree with specific policies or people in the meantime.
Reference the “monarchy”.
Let’s be fair. The woman has been around a long time & one cannot deny she has experience. To me, she comes over as a quite intelligent person but having never met the her, her never having been introduced to me, my opinion is somewhat shadowed.
However, on her demise, what are the options. Having never met her son, again his never having been introduced to me, he comes over via the media as an oddball with Nicholas Witchell as a pet instead of his mother’s corgies. Does Angleland know what it might be letting itself in for? Remember that in Scotland we can get rid of him at the drop of a hat. The Sovereign of Scotland are its people & can dethrone the monarch at any time as “not fit for purpose”.
What then. They by-pass his sister & his son takes charge. What has he done apart from travel around the world accompanied by a corps on Nepalese or whatever bodyguards or played around on helicopters for mainly photoshoots. His stepbrother (purportedly) seems a much quieter person, not too many sycophants or photographers around him except when attempting to sow his oats. Poor bugger, he must have a complex, one way or the other.
Decisions, decisions. Suppose we’ll have to leave it until after independence.
There again, Proud Republic of Scotland has a nice strong ring to it.
Alexander bus builders, Falkirk, have made a £2Billion deal with China for electrified buses.
The Royals are supposed to be impartial. An impartial head of State can be an advantage. Obama was a lame duck President for six years. It was difficult to legislation through a Republican Congress. The Royals should slim down, be quiet or bow out. The Royals are Tories. Boris Johnson is a total hypocrite. The EU paid for his privileged upbringing. His father was an EU diplomat. Now he wants out.
Anyone who believes in FFA, Home Rule, Federalism, Independence should vote SNP. It will also prevent £13Billion being lost to Scotland which could be better spent.
Westminster is spending £95Billion+ on Hinkley Point (a disaster waiting to happen) and HS2 which will make journeys throughout Britain take longer. A total waste of money. The deficit. The Tories are sanctioning and starving the vulnerable.
Scotland NHS is the best in the UK. Official figures.
Aye, Ken 500.
NHS in Angleland, according to Anglish news last night, is up the proverbial creek.
Morning, Onwards, you wrote:
“But it is still worthwhile pointing out the alternative if they don’t hold their nose and vote SNP on the constituency whilst looking at the bigger picture.”
And that’s exactly what i do but as i tried to explain to Gerry i don’t force the issue when i’m trying to convert independence doubters and i get any hint of them being anti SNP. Others can feel free to operate in that manner but it’s not how i work.
However, if i’m in ELECTION mode i persist a bit more but trying to guarantee an independence convert is more important than trying to gain support for any single party and needs to be handled differently.
Don’t get me wrong, i’d love every single voter to support the SNP, at least until we gain our independence, but we have to be realistic and realise that not every conversion to our cause is going to want to support the SNP, no matter how hard we try.
It has been said many times before, we in the independence movement are a broad church and we all came together under the Hope Over Fear banner. I wouldn’t want it any other way.
As a final wee thought on this matter, just think of a scenario, i’ve almost got a convert but he’s wavering on turning because he’s been steeped in certain ‘SNP BAD’ hatred. So i finally seal the deal by getting him to vote for the SSP or whatever.
It would then be down to the likes of people like our own IanB who, as far as i know, has similar political beliefs to try and encourage him to lend his votes to the SNP, for the greater good, just as Ian is doing himself. At least i think he is, last i read on that matter in one of Ian’s posts.
Job done and a new recruit for the Yes movement.
Tommy Sheridan unfortunately, is anti EU and supports marijuana.
O/T links
link to lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk
link to scotlandineurope.eu
link to commonspace.scot
Oil is such a burden don’t you know
link to archive.is
Lord Flipper Darling Project Fearing like its 2014 on BBC tv breakfast right the now. Flipper kicks off putting boot hard in to Scotland, he has sympathy for those sick of EU campaign but its only 10 weeks, the Scottish one was 3 years. Flipper is a tory though so fair dues. Has a BBC ligger asked him about PFI Edinburgh yet?
O/T links
Scotland will continue to be a psephologist’s delight for the foreseeable future
link to democraticaudit.com
link to ted.com
link to thecanary.co
Bloody hell taxpayers money flows into criminals pockets
Iain-duncan-smith- in line for £15,000 just for quitting
link to archive.is
@Stocker The Hairy String wont be soiled by that Twats neck,any auld rope wid dey,an if theres anybody getting rid of there piano ah could find ah use fur the the wire (preferibly rusty)Hawmaws , noo theres ahither word fur Ms Blackman tae confuddle hansard wie.
@Orri
You could be right in thinking that the Blairites in SLab (or BLiS as I now call them) are deliberately throwing the election. Could it be that they may think that a drubbing at HR will provide them with a weapon against Corbyn in WM?
It can only be… Both Votes SNP… for me. Hehe 🙂
O/T links
link to johnnyvoid.wordpress.com
link to middleeasteye.net
link to washingtonsblog.com
link to techdirt.com
Surely it should be law that all manifestos be declared say, 4 weeks prior to any election.
Even after hearing on the news that Scotland NHS is streets better than everywhere else in the news, what pops through my letterbox? An election broadsheet from Labour telling me how the SNP is cutting services.
This is why they are so unelectable. All they are capable of is casting aspersions on the most trusted government in the world. Absolute plonkers
Is it not time some SNP politician told the apologists for Labour’s Edinburgh schools PFI fiasco that when these contracts were being put out to tender the Labour Scottish Executive was sending hundreds of millions a year back to the London Treasury so PFI was not the only game in town.
This post is about PFI
link to archive.is
link to archive.is
What I find strange about this PFI situation is that it is the PPP contractors who are doing the inspections.
‘A Glasgow City Council spokeswoman said: “We have received a reassuring verbal report from our PPP contractor’s structural engineer that confirms there is no structural defect or health and safety issue regarding the results of the surveys in the three schools built by Miller Construction.’
‘Mr Burns said that the council received early indications that suggest evidence of faults across all 17 affected schools to a varying extent”.
“At the moment it is too early to say what the impact will be as full survey results from Edinburgh Schools Partnership have not been yet been received.’
It looks like the most sincere socialist contingent has failed us today and are distracted by something more important. Allow me.
link to thenational.scot
Foodbank dependency in Scotland is up 13.6% in Scotland in the last year. Scotland more than any other country in the UK depends on food banks. That’s children too, remember.
You were saying?
link to caltonjock.com