Wings Over Scotland

Perhaps that’s part of the intention in the whole portrayal of this election being a contest for first runner up. On it’s own that might encourage both Labour and Conservative voters to turn out and vote. It might even promote voter apathy on the part of SNP supporters. Rise and Green might also do the same but there may be some amongst those they persuade to vote for them who might not have bothered turning out in the first place. There may also be those who vote SNP x 2 because of all this.

End of the day any pretence that sweeping all the constituency seats in a region precludes taking list seats is demonstrably false.

Also let’s bear in mind that the 2015 election was on far fewer seats and on some of the lower constituency polls that means far more than 3 constituencies will not go to the SNP.

Garrion there are plenty the Nats could do to work from the left abolition of the council tax for example and replacing it with something far progressive. The removal of the Offensive Communication and Threatening Behaviour at Football is another that should be binned, Using the tax raising powers to be progressive rather than being regressive and not using them for fear of losing votes. These are all things we can do without independence. This belief that only the Nats can lead us to Independence is startling. Indeed, it was Nationalist strongholds that let us down in the referendum.

It is clrear to me, that many of those who support independence on the Interweb aren’t the ones talking to people in the streets and chapping doors. During the referendum campaign it was groups like RIC who were doing solid work chapping doors in the most disenfranchised areas this stirred the vote. Many of these people now feel turned off from politics again.

I am not a supporter of any particular political party, I am on the outside looking in. But I am a lefty activist and I believe strongly in social justice, and in my class. If anything I’d be IWCA.

Hoping the Greems don’t turn out to be the third group of willing idiots we’ve seen over the last few years.

There was the LibDems going into formal coalition with the Tories in Westminster.

There was Scottish Labour working directly with the Tories in the Referendum and doing their dirty work for them, and continuing to prop them up by screaming Westminster isn’t to blame, it’s the SNP.

Now the Greens and the smaller proInd parties pushing to specifically split the SNP vote, having made very little progress attracting from the Unionist parties.

…as a general rule whenever unionist pollsters, unionist media and unionist bloggers are helping to “promote” an idea it is best to do the exact opposite.

If the other “independence supporting parties” got under the SNP banner we would gain list seats and have an even stronger voice in arguing for Scottish matters.

A simple choice for me SNP X 2

Gary
Do you not think it a better strategy to win self-determination first, before seeking to express your political individuality? Otherwise, Scotland’s political arena will remain within the constraints of a UK political space dominated by English votes. Your personal ambitions will count for naught compared to those of swing voters in middle England.

#DemocraticDeficit

So Garrion is it independence at all costs? The SNP are close to the most authoritarian party on these islands. I can’t vote for that. If it was tight between them and Labour I’d vote for them.

The Nats will piss this election with an ncreased majority. I’d quite like to see a more colourful and vibrant parliament.

Joseph Robinson

yup, in my spare time im a shape shifting lizard alien

if the unionist and slab are trying to manipulate the population, they are making a piss poor attempt., long may it continue

Brian
“Now the Greens and the smaller proInd parties pushing to specifically split the SNP vote, having made very little progress attracting from the Unionist parties.”

aye, never really understood this argument, the greens used the opposite in NEF, eg folk in st andrews would never vote snp so standing a green candidate made sence in NEF. I argued with them, and other snp members, that even if it were true (doubtful) they had no way of knowing this,
the ballot paper doesnt indicate who you vote for if there was no green candidate and it risked splitting the vote and dividing the yes campaign.

as it was, the green vote in NEF made no difference to the SNP win, but in Mundells seat, the animosity generated between the greens and the snp has done more to damage the yes campaign than anything else.

Gary says:
24 April, 2016 at 4:05 pm
Maybe we should advocate voting SNP 1&2 when they step up and deliver left leaning policies. It is one think to talk left, but acting it is completely different. SNP talk left and deliver Centre Right. I am not syaing they are doing a bad job, but it’s certainly not as rosie as some indy campaigners believe.

Gary

If you think an anti Trident / free prescription / free education / free bus pass / welcoming immigrants / environmental green energy policy / etc / etc is centre right you must be a radical left winger. Only from a far left position could you frame SNP policies in that manner.
They have followed centre left policies for years. I think you are mixing them up with New Labour.

@Gary. With respect, I get the sense that your information is coming from somewhere other than experience of SNP governance.

I’m afraid that calling the SNP (one of) the most authoritarian parties on these islands is frankly horseshit, and means that your information is coming from somewhere like the Times or Hootsmon. Not exactly hard left media sources.

Pity, thought we could reason together.

The SNP say use the two votes to ensure their majority.
They know what is needed, I will follow their suggestion.

Why take a chance, they are performing well, and if you are not sure of that have a look at Grousebeater’s post on achievements.
That tells the real story of the SNP in power.

They are the ONLY Scottish party and the only party in Scotland who has the ability to govern. Get them in with your two votes if you want Independence. The rest is suiting the Unionists down to the ground. Do not forget that.

As for the greens, sorry but I trust them as much as I do the Tories or the libdems, they will move to whatever suits them,
forget Independence they have little taste for it.

Gary

It is clrear to me, that many of those who support independence on the Interweb aren’t the ones talking to people in the streets and chapping doors. During the referendum campaign it was groups like RIC who were doing solid work chapping doors in the most disenfranchised areas this stirred the vote

bollox, you think that only ric was canvasing and talking to people in poor areas? complete havers.
RIC were only a very small but welcome part of a much bigger indy movement
you could argue that since the snp have more members alone in NEF than RISE and that they are and were active in YESNEF, that YESNEF did more than ric to get the vote to 45% ? see what I did there?
YESNEF AND RIC have no allegiance to each other, only to the indy movement. it is only via independence that any of the social issues you mentioned will ever truly be addressed

Brilliant analysis, Rev.

In 2011 the difference between SNP constituency and list was just over 1%

2016, and people are telling polsters that the might vote 54% & 46%, a difference of 8%.

Let’s consider the pollsters overestimate that difference, as I believe they did in 2011.

That would mean more to the SNP, less to Greens, and Others. Suppose the difference were 4%, not 8% – that would make the multiplier for SNP 1.09.

Feeding through the figures above (and rounding).

CENTRAL

SNP 118000 (11800 after divisor)

SEAT 6
Labour (11900)

SEAT 7
SNP (11800)

Labour and SNP might change 6 & 7th places. Overall result unchange.

GLASGOW
Assumption: SNP 9 constituency seats

SNP 90600 (9060 after divisor)

SEAT 7
Grn (12K)

IF those extra votes had come off Green, the SNP could be challenging for that 7th seat.

HIGHLANDS AND ISLANDS
Assumption: SNP 6 constituency seats, Lib Dem 2

SNP 92700 (9270)

The Conservatives might have got seat 5 instead of 4. Overall result unchange.

LOTHIAN
Assumption: SNP 9 constituency seats

SNP 120900 (12090 after divisor)

The Greens might have got seat 6 or 7 instead of 5. Overall result unchange.

MID SCOTLAND AND FIFE
Assumption: SNP 9 constituency seats

SNP 127200 (12720)

SEAT 7
Con (15K)

Overall result unchange.

NORTH EAST SCOTLAND
Assumption: SNP 10 constituency seats

SNP 153400 (15340)

SEAT 6
Con (15K)

SEAT 7
Lib (14K)

The SNP would have taken 6 or 7 and removed the LibDem. Net SNP Gain.

SOUTH SCOTLAND
Assumption: SNP 7 constituency seats, Con 2

SNP 124500 (15570)

SEAT 6
Grn (16K)

SEAT 7
SNP (14K)

Might have become ….

SEAT 6
SNP (16K)

SEAT 7
SNP (14K)

… if Green dropped while SNP increased. CLOSE.

WEST OF SCOTLAND
Assumption: SNP 10 constituency seats

SNP 127800 (11620)

SEAT 6
Grn (15K)

SEAT 7
Con (14K)

Overall SNP result unchange. If Green fell, Labour might take the seat.

CONCLUSION

If the SNP list vote is closer to the constituency vote then polls suggest, the SNP would get ONE extra list seat at the expense of the LibDems. Also be very close with another TWO Green seats.

SNP+SNP instead of SNP+other will gain list seats.

[Apologies in advance for inevitable mistakes!]

“And if yer granny had baws she’d be your grandad. What people have been yelling at me all weekend is “BASED ON THE CURRENT POLLS!”. So this is a calculation based on the current polls.”

Great, so what did it actually tell you? Your conclusions don’t match all the work you have put into the analysis.

The SNP don’t get any list seats in five of the eight regions. Most of their current 16 list seats get converted into the 16 constituency seats wins you assume at the start, and then ignore in the conclusion. All the green seats are coming at the expense of parties that are actually losing seats – Labour and the Lib Dems.

You state “But the idea that Prof. Curtice’s ERS report “proves” that you should vote for smaller parties on the list in order to maximise the number of pro-indy list MSPs is simply hogwash.”
So prove that the number of pro-indy list MSPs will go up if we all vote SNP twice. Glasgow would gain two unionists.

Or show it going down if you take votes away from the SNP – you should be able to find an example. Take Central, have enough SNP supporters split their vote, and it costs the SNP the last seat – but it goes Green before Labour. So the two regions where it can happen are Highlands and Islands, and South, the two that aren’t all SNP wins in the constituency. But in the other 6, Prof Curtice is right, AMS is broken by the huge SNP results in the constituencies, and can be broken further with tactical voting on the list.

Of course, if you think that the Labour manifesto launch will kickstart their campaign, and keep lots of Labour MSPs in constituency seats, then list tactical voting will backfire.

Maybe we should advocate voting SNP 1&2 when they step up and deliver left leaning policies.

havers, people vote for the snp because they believe this will bring about indyref2 and ultimately independence.

any policy that the snp or indeed rise can introduce that westminster cannot and does undermine.

voting snp1&rise2 in glasgow, isnt to help introduce left wing policies, a rainbow coalition or hold hands and sing fukcin’ kumbaya. it is to get rid of unionist msps. end off

Its independence first and foremost so its two votes for the SNP, sod the rest.

On the politics show how many times does Nicola have to answer Gordon Brewers question on what conditions would cause a second referendum. The man seemed obsessed about a second referendum, maybe a secret admirer of Ruth Davidson.

Though when it was Kezia Dugdales interview he didn’t have to try hard to mess her up, what a car crash of an interview. When she doesn’t know the answer to a question (and believe me she doesn’t know the answer to a lot of questions) all she does is repeat her previous answer.

lord help us, if by some miracle she ever became First Minster, that was beyond dire for the head of a political branch office.

Vote 1 – Vote 2 , Vote SNP

Why are the SNP asking for both votes, WHY WHY

Because they know that’s how you win…..Jeeez!! this is not rocket science

Every party would tell you the same thing if they were honest
but they’re not so they tell big fat porkies circulate themselves and their supporters around as many sites as possible to try and confuse the issue, and doesn’t the state broadcaster and the print media love it

Dr Jim
If one more person mentions Greens to me
They’re not a political party they’re a Fukcing protest group with Victor Meldrew economic policies for God sake
“Get a bike” There you are I’m Green see how easy that was have a go it’s a doddle

havers, even if the greens were were the fukcin’ fluffy party, it doesnt and wouldnt change the argument
1.the greens will not win the election, their policies are irrelevent
2. the argument is about replacing unionists with greens

do you think the red yellow and red tories are real political parties? would you prefer prof thomkin in glasgow rather than a green? he has already said that if elected he will only be a part time msp

SNP’s Mhairi Black accuses rivals of ‘disingenuous’ vote split attempt

link to archive.is

Buy the house before you move in the furniture.

SNP x 2.

I don’t trust the Greens as a Party. I don’t doubt Finnie’s credentials on Indy when it comes to maybe voting Green on the list vote in H&I. I wont do it though as the Scottish Greens should have told Lucas and Bennett to go and wear it over certain issues but they didn’t. They lost any chance that I might have entertained voting for them then.

I think Harvie standing against SNP in Glasgow Kelvin is just being a spoiler. He has gone way down in my estimation since the Referendum. I see Greens standing in constituencies are just acting as spoilers. It makes their public pronouncements of vote SNP in constituency but Green on the list look and sound sleekit.

Maggie Chapman in NE is another one that grates on me. Every time I have seen her on Britannia TV Aberdeen I cringe as I grit my teeth.

Andy Wightman in Lothian I have soft spot for but I have said that before. Alison Johnston is another Green that grates on me though.

HandandShrimp

nicola is hedging her bets, wisely so

an electoral mandate will be sought for indyref2 if there is an eu out result at the 2017 local elections

thats why i argue for understanding between all indy parties,
for us to win all 32 councils in scotland, we will need this.

H&S
id prefer anyone rather than heeds girlfriend

South of Scotland, where I live
the only tactical vote is
vote snp1&2

that includes solidarity, greens and rise

it works both ways

btw, the snp has campaign for years for PR elections, see tommy shepards maiden speech

Is that a hammer I see before me, pointing towards my post?

The paragraphs didn’t look that long in the preview box.

Maybe I don’t understand how this whole voting system works, but if I understand it correctly there is a bit of mix up in the Labour vote count when it comes to potentially allocating them a 3rd seat.

On the first example when it comes to the 3rd seat, the labour vote count should be 9,896, not 20K, (59,379 divisible by the two seats already allocated plus 1)

This Labour bias seems to be raised again every time we get to allocating their third seat.

Happy to be proved wrong, just thought it didn’t look right.

@ schrodingers cat

I know the SNP have campaigned for PR. I was (unsuccessfully) trying not to be too verbose, so I did not specify that I was referring to unionist parties’ attachment to FPTP.

I realize you may not have been addressing me in that part of your post, though you were quoting me at the start of it.

I’m quite surprised that ‘Kevaverage’ is not on the Tory list.

crazycat

yeah it was a reply to you, i should have put your name, i get lazy sometimes, especially on a sunday afternoon 🙂

Labour , The bag carriers of the Unionist Westminster Masters the legacy they have saddled us with is this f/n totally bonkers -Confusing – unmitigated failure of a voting system , and I don’t care what fancy name you attach to it to make it sound clever and a true reflection of voters wishes .And guess what ,We can’t change it alter or amend it , It takes a Westminster vote will we get that aye right should be around the time Brian Willson is appointed PM. So its have your Parlment to play in but Westminster sets the rules ,have fun fools fighting each other keep busy on that you will not cause us at Westminster any lost sleep ,Game set and f/n match Suckers .

JLT says:
24 April, 2016 at 6:15 pm

Nice to see Kezia once again confirming her stance that she would refuse a mandate for a referendum should the Scottish people want one.

Ruby replies
Yes it is nice! It’s good that the Scottish electorate can see her true colours!

Labour did make the promise that shipbuilding jobs would be safe if we voted NO.

I didn’t believe them. I’m pretty surprised that anyone did.

@Greannach

The last three weekends, a nice little earner to supplement her HoC WM pension. 🙁

Missed all of her thoughts this weekend, did anybody at radio shortbread, since she was there, ask about her promise on the Clydebank?

Oh wait was it even discussed… I don’t recall it being mentioned good old auntie.

🙂

Thanks WOS, the figures you have estimated for Lothian show my plan to give the Greens my list vote is the best way not to waste my 2nd vote. Cheers DD.

Gary Flamethrower: “The SNP are close to the most authoritarian party on these islands.”

That kind of fatuous remark is the bread and butter of people who have no politics and fewer scruples.

What islands is he talking about?

Another puerile Unionist deposits a pile of claptrap. If you don’t listen to him he’ll tell you the SNP have no left-wing policies… oh look. He’s done just that.

Yes, getting rid of Trident is a Stalinist policy.
Free prescriptions is a hard right-wing Tory policy.
Free higher education is definitely latent fascism.

This is a King Edward moment when you grab the runt by the scruff of his scrawny neck and toss the layabout clean out of the castle window.

link to wp.me

@ schrodingers cat

Of course I wouldn’t like any Tories or Labour as the opposition but at least with them you know exactly who the enemy is and what they’re going to do, plus they’re Brits so that makes them predictable

Tomkins I’d happily stick my leg out in front of him, Oops sorry

Ummm.

You are comparing List totals in 2011 where the SNP won 56 Constituency Seats with List totals for 2016 where the SNP are projecting 68 seats.

Saying that the SNP are -5 seats when they are actually UP SEVEN seats is a complete nonsense.

Under this projection, Pro-Indy parties GAIN EIGHT seats overall and the more Green votes, the better that gain becomes. The problem is that the idiots who will vote RISE and Solidarity will reduce the number of pro-Indy seats.

The real lesson for anyone who is Independence Fist and not an SNP die hard is vote SNP Constituency, Green List. No other vote maximises the non-Unionist bloc.

Slightly O/T

Lazy Sunday Afternoon

The wailing of the yoons has shattered my quiet Sunday, apparently our leader has been mentioning the Indy word again and it’s like pouring vinegar on the yoons open sores.

Not a call to battle (although embattled we are), with malice towards none, with fairness for all and with the firmness of being right…..how dare she.

Please choose from the following menu: Three cups of deceit or one cup of SNP.

Choices, choices, luckily I know what I like and like what I know.

Two Cups of SNP s’il vous plaît

Properly Brewed

Some great contributions on this thread. Thanks to HandandShrimp and crazycat in particular. The D’Hondt system was designed to confuse the voter and make it near impossible for the SNP to gain a majority. Thanks to Donald Dewar and Malcolm “God, I’m so bitter” Bruce.

We need to step back from gaming the system to remember what Macart said at 6.38pm.

Any reduction in the SNP vote will delay independence for years. I don’t have that time, like many people on here, I suspect. During the referendum I made many friends across the spectrum for Yes, people who worked their arse off and whom I respect. Once Independence has been achieved, we can all go rainbow and the SNP will inevitably wither as our nation grows into its bright new future.

For now, SNP x2 is the only game in town.

Tinto, D’hondt really isn’t all that complex when the basic premise of the system is explained.

D’Hondt is designed to minimise “wasted” votes while remaining proportional. It does this using a reducing balance, so popular parties in the constituencies still have a chance of list seats while making it increasingly difficult for that to happen. On the flip side, it also makes it relatively easy for parties above the threshold (roughly 5.6%) to win a second seat.

In other words, (and being very rough with numbers), the SNP getting all constituencies in a region and 110,000 votes gives it a shot at 1 list seat, while the Greens getting no constituencies and 10,000 votes are likely to get a seat.

Where it really comes into play is when you move from 110k to 120k which cannot possibly provide a second list seat to the SNP, while moving from 10k to 20k for the Greens will is very likely to give them a second seat.

Dair

I would agree that the splintering of the pro-Indy vote is an own goal especially over multiple parties using the D’Hondt system. How the hell do you second guess what everyone else is dong. At least with STV you can move your vote around.

I can understand the Greens who do have good support, particularly in the university centres of Edinburgh and Glasgow, wanting their members to vote Green and one would hope that they would support the SNP in the constituency vote where the Greens are not standing. I think the Greens stand a fair chance of picking up a few seats in these areas simply because their membership is strong there.

However, the media’s desire to over-emphasise the need to spread the list votes around looks suspicious. When did they ever give a damn about what is best for the pro-Indy camp? It smacks more of splitting with the hope of saving a few Labour and Tory list seats.

Nicola Sturgeon has stated vote SNP x 2

quite right too

for the snp to do otherwise would bring down the wrath of the unionist media for trying to game the system

but i am not nicola, im schrodingers cat and i can say as i please

This is going to make my highly unpopular, but here goes.

You are absolutely right in your analysis, as always. Plus I don’t trust the Greens on independence, with individual exceptions (not including their leader, who I do not trust on the issue).

BUT in Glasgow you show the SNP getting no seats on the list. That is very probably correct.

IF SNP voters were to split their list vote between two other pro-Indy parties in Glasgow – lets say Solidarity and Rise – you would get three or probably four more pro-Indy MSPs at the expense of Labour and the Tory.

Exactly the same is true in NE Scotland, W of Scotland and elsewhere that you project nil list seats for SNP. Because by switching them they will not have any divider, those wasted votes could elect three or four other Indy MSPs.

If the SNP misses say one constituency in Glasgow, they could get it back on the list if everyone votes both votes SNP. But that is one seat set against three or four pro Indy MSPs if people switch on the list.

Sorry, but it is true. My interest is Independence, not a political party.

Total SNP vote of more than 50% is essential to keep the independence struggle on track.

Pro independence SNP supporters have only three choices:

SNP+SNP or SNP+SNP or SNP+SNP.

I have been reading Wings for years (pre-ref) and contributed during the referendum period, but very rarely since but still believe this site is vital in achieving independence. This issue of tactical voting certainly seems to have split the Yes/indy camp into its political parts.

What made the Yes campaign work was the common goal of independence. Independence first, political aspirations second otherwise independence is a pipe dream and also the political aspirations of the smaller groups unlikely to be realised within the UK political set up.

It now appears that common goal is secondary and the aim of independence for some has died or their response to a second referendum is at best luke warm. To have come this far with the main goal in sight to potentially be thwarted by squabbling on how best to vote based on what the potential figures may be and the advice of the British MSM is very sad.

The yoons must be pissing themselves! Their greatest weapons were fear and doubt thus creating division (divide and rule) and they have played those cards again. All they ever had to do was create confusion and muddy the waters causing voters to become confused and switch off. Whether it is a winning hand remains to be seen.

I’m the first to admit my ignorance with regards to how the voting system works, even with the effort show in the many posts, however my goal is still to have an independent Scotland with a government that puts its people first. A government that is capable and trustworthy, a government that will fight Scotland’s corner. I don’t see any other groups or political parties, other than the SNP, achieving that so for me it is SNP 1 & 2, and I hope I’m right as the independence of our nation hangs in the balance!

Just SNP x 2. SNP x 2.

Craig Murray,

“My interest is Independence, not a political party.”

Why did you then try to become an SNP MP and when they rejected you turned to attacking them at every opportunity like Jim Sillars?

You are doing a great job exposing the hypocrites of the world on your blog.

But on Scottish politics, your hatred of the SNP destroys your credibilty, as is the case with Jim Sillars.

The ESTABLISHMENT is terrified of another referendum or the thought that the uppity jocks might just get to like deciding their own future. This is very evident when you see and hear the co-ordinated panic in their platoon commanders Davidson Dugdale & Wee Wullie all singing off a prepared song sheet and the EBC transmitting it loud and often. They are very very worried and therefor becoming very very DANGEROUS. God help us all if the SNP get an overall majority in this election they are panicking, a wounded animal is a dangerous adversary.
I think they are deluded that they can change anything by threats and nastiness. SNP X 2

@Rev Stu,“If you’re going to put your faith in numbers, it’s always worth doing your sums first.”

Ye ken fu weel Labour canna coont, the libDems tell arithmetical lies and the Tory lot are the ones wha inherited the D.Alexander calculator.

Thanks, Dair: I see what you mean, but my point (poorly expressed) was that most voters haven’t a clue about the function of the “second vote”. Some see it as a consolation prize or as a wee flutter, like some Grand National punt.

To me the fact that MSM are pushing the vote Green/Rise/Solidarity button is a sure sign they are in the last ditch, and will do anything to stall the advance towards independence.

As I said elsewhere, if your left-wing or environmental convictions are your most important concern, vote that way.

Generally, If you wish to pave the way to independence, vote SNP twice.

K1: lost all my chips in The Corinthian last night!

😳

@ Tinto Chiel

Misunderstanding the function of the list vote (it’s a great pity the term “second” vote has gained currency) is a real problem – though I have no idea how widespread it is.

Anyone regarding it as a second preference will be susceptible to Labour’s telling them it’s illegal to vote for the same party twice (do they state that that only applies to the SNP, risking looking blatantly partisan, or do they generalize and risk losing their own list votes, which if they fail to win constituencies could come back to bite them?).

After the election I think there should be a concerted effort to inform people (they may not listen, of course), since I believe the electoral system is reserved even after the latest table-crumbs are distributed.

Watching that Kezia Dugdale interview again from this morning. She goes round in circles trying to emphasise her loyalty to the Union.

It struck me how similar it was, in tone, to the stance that Ed Miliband took about not making any deals with the SNP.

From seeming like a person who could make pragmatic decisions based on the pasting her party took and the betrayal many ex Slab voters felt, she has gone full Yoon.

She and Ruth seem to be competing for the hard core Loyalist vote. It was incredibly frustrating watching her duck and dive to avoid any Indy sympathy whatsoever. Who advises these people?

I did feel a wee bit sorry for her a while ago but now, honestly she deserves everything coming to her. It is all a game to Slab.

Also can anyone explain why being a socialist stops you from being a nationalist – without invoking Godwin’s law?

Honestly, why does being a sovereign state stop you from expressing and giving support to other socialist nations?

Not sure Kezia has gone full Yoon. I think she has had a skelping not unlike poor Wendy got and has been told to re-define her position for the confused (but ever decreasing) Labour voters.

If there is Brexit and the EU, in a fit of pique, said our place is good to stay in then watch this space.

In Mid-Scotland and Fife a SNP/Green vote has a very, very good chance of dethroning Willie Rennie.

shrodinger’s cat, The lie in the media is the one you repeat here, that SNp/OIP is a choice. It is not. There are two choices depending on your point of view.

SNP/SNP
SNP/Green

Any vote for RISE or Solidarity is a vote for Unionists.

“My fellow Scots, ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country.”

The next indyref will be called when a good 60% or more of the country is pro-independence.

Even if the SNP happened at that stage to be in a minority government, 60% of the country wanting indy could not be ignored.

THAT is what will give us indy — far more than a majority SNP government and the numbers still hanging around the 50% mark.

So how is this done? It is done, by YOU, reader. Get out canvassing or working the phone lines or whatever your local SNP branch gets up to.

It is not some “Nicola” or “SNP” who will magic up these numbers. It is pro-indy citizens talking and persuading their fellow citizens, using the right arguments.

So let’s put in the hours. If you need some motivation, just think of the joy of hearing of Jackie Bird’s resignation as she moves to England in a major strop just to avoid covering the Indy Party following a YES vote…

Rev Stu, no they don’t.

You are talking like they are independent functions when one is very much dependent on the other. Both the SNP and the Greens take seats from Unionists. Hence the Unionist seat total (constituency and list) drops while the SNP/Green total rises by TWELVE seats.

Eleven of those Twelve seats come from Unionist parties (the twelth being that of the sadly departed Margo).

This piece is disappointing, you don’t specifically mention the constituency totals which is the sort of obfuscation you are so good at highlighting in the MSM.

dair

im not a liar

i merely point out the case for voting green in fife/mid region, where i live

rise and solidarity are only unionists in an alternate universe inhabited by David Icke, shape-shifting reptilian aliens and various other fox hunting fraternities

We have to bear in mind that this system is a bugger to game. It was intended to be a bugger to game. The architects set out with the intent of trying to ensure that an SNP majority was not possible.

The fact that the SNP broke the system in 2011 had them scurrying back to the drawing board.

If this whole thing is making your head ache just remember it was meant to make your head ache.

Dair says:
24 April, 2016 at 7:58 pm
Craig,

Any vote for RISE or Solidarity is a wasted vote. ONLY a Green vote works as an alternative list vote ESPECIALLY in Glasgow where the Greens may end up just short of a second seat because of the couple of thousand voting for RISE and Solidarity combined.
——-

When you look at the figures this is the harsh, brutal truth.
Perhaps if these two parties had got their act together, they might have a chance of scraping a couple of seats. But they didn’t, and they will pay the price for that mistake.

They point to the polls to persuade SNP supporters to lend them their list vote, but the same polls show they are nowhere in sight!! In reality, they will split the same 1-2% of the votes between them. All wasted votes if you support independence.

At least the Greens have a chance.

But I’ll be giving it SNPx2 because I don’t want to take any risks. That is what worked last time, and as an SNP supporter I don’t want to vote for the opposition.

IMO, The best path to independence is down the middle of the road – attracting support from ALL sides – not just the far left.

Greens were against the new Forth road bridge. Greens cost taxpayers tens of millions of pounds by holding up the Aberdeen bypass. They campaigned against the Andy Murray tennis centre using exaggerated outdated information. They are against attracting more international tourism to Scotland by air.

IMO, the SNP has a far more sensible and pragmatic balance between the environment, jobs and investment.

While we are complaining about what the article doesn’t do can I point out that it didn’t make me a cup of tea.

I’ll get me coat.

The SNP have asked us for both votes, it couldn’t be clearer
the UK the Media, both TV and Print are dying for the vote share of the SNP to go down and if it does they will pump it out on an hourly basis that the desire for Independence is diminishing

All these folks that are scrabbling around for votes for other entities are a distraction, it’s all about the amount of votes, not who the opposition is whether favourable to Indy or not

This idea being touted around about it’ll stop a Labour or a Tory or whoever is completely immaterial

This election for the SNP is like a mini ref and if the count is up it gives the SNP a base to start from

Most folk on here probably know I’ve no time for the Greens or any of the other parties so I’m not going to bang on about it here just to say that many people think the SNP is this big powerful machine and it is, but only in Scotland, compared to the Westminster army we’re kinda small and we’ve seen that in our MPs bad treatment down there

We all know when it comes to it, our political fight will be against all three of the UKs parties, not even counting the Scottish opposition, just the same as before and that’s an enormous battle

The other parties are only being used by the media to dilute the vote and nothing more, in political terms they don’t exist, the SNP have only just started to exist themselves and Westminster still believes they can be crushed

A vote for any other party will be seen as a vote against the SNP and Independence and used accordingly

I’m Bias, Partisan and all of those things towards the SNP but Independence is my main reason for saying this stuff

I don’t hate any of these other guys or anything, it’s just at the moment they’re irrelevant and in the way

The movement of seats from SNP to Green – rather than from unionist to Green – described in the projection above is what happened in practice at the only other Holyrood election where the smaller parties made an impact – 2003.

Of course that was in the context of a likely repeat of the Labour-LibDem coalition, and nobody was describing parties as pro- or anti-independence as their main characteristic.

People were either actively looking for greater diversity or just liked the policies of the Greens and SSP. But was the SNP, not Labour, whose MSPs they replaced. To some extent that was a consequence of the SNP being better-represented on the list than in the constituencies.

But it still shows, I think, what happens if you move votes from the SNP, rather than from Labour or the LibDems (who probably don’t have many left to lose). It has almost no effect on the number of unionist MSPs.

The only way to get rid of unionist MSPs is to convince people not to vote for them, so that the percentage of MSPs they are entitled to by virtue of their vote is drastically reduced. If they get down to LibDem levels, their support will be in the critical zone where they might not get any at all in some regions.

Not only is that more effective, it’s also more honest and noticeably not what the MSM are promoting.

Clydebuilt,

“Both The Sunday Herald and the National have done their best to diminish the SNP’s List vote.”

They are unionist papers and they DO NOT support independence.

Their “pro independence” stand is simply window dressing to milk the more gullible independence supporters.

Don’t trust the Greens, RISE, The National or The Sunday Herald on independence.

i didnt say it
you did

snp won one list msp in the region in 2011, as you correctly point out with the snp (-1) in your article

but it is the 7th list seat that the snp are now fighting for but failing to win due to them winning 9/9 and not the 8/9 constituencies as per 2011

this is why the snp have lost I msp on the list

the 7th seat will go to the tories or wullie rennie unless the greens pick up more votes

schrodinger wrote And what we find is that a very significant swing towards the Greens in the list vote actually results in FIVE FEWER pro-independence MSPs on the list.

Yes. On the list. Which takes into account Constituencies.

Overall, the SNP GAIN 5 seats, the Greens GAIN 7 seats. Unionists LOSE 11 seats. The list is not separate from the constituencies, it is dependent on the constituency results.