Wings Over Scotland

After a few months with no Scottish polling, today’s Sunday Times carries the results of a Panelbase one which, among other things, reinforces our oft-stated view that Scottish subsamples of UK-wide polls are completely meaningless.

While several of those have shown Labour or even the Tories in the lead, the full-size, properly-weighted poll still has the SNP a massive 14 points in front on 42%, with the Tories trailing behind on 28% and Labour in their now-customary third place at 22%.

Support for independence is also slightly down, with the numbers at 43-57, but it’s some other findings that are the eye-openers.

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One of the handiest things for truth-seeking political commentators (admittedly a rare breed) is that the three component nations that make up Great Britain currently all have different parties in government, so it’s always possible to measure the rhetoric of the main parties against their actions in the bit they’re actually in charge of.

So when Scottish Labour, for example, try to grab the credit for the SNP ending the public sector pay freeze by claiming that they’re “following Labour’s lead”, it’s a simple matter to look to Wales – where Labour run the Assembly – and note that the pay freeze there is very much still in place, with the Labour executive, unlike the Scottish Government, refusing to find the money to end it from its own budget.

(The same is true for many other policies the Scottish Government has implemented to fight Tory austerity, like free university tuition and mitigating the bedroom tax.)

And the Tories are no less hypocritical.

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The Times today carries an article sparking the annual revival of one of the evergreen mysteries of Scottish politics: just how many (or more accurately, how few) people are in the Scottish Labour Party?

The piece sees leadership contest avoider Alex Rowley crowing about a fall in the SNP’s membership income, based on this year’s party accounts as just released by the Electoral Commission.

So we thought we’d take a look at some numbers.

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When all the media spin – and boy are there ever some examples around today – is said and done, one cold fact will remain: Kezia Dugdale inherited the main opposition party in Scotland, and bequeathed her unlucky successor a third-placed irrelevance.

Before Dugdale took over two years ago this month, Labour had NEVER finished third behind the SNP and the Tories in a Scottish election in its entire 100-year-plus history. By common consensus her predecessor had left the party at rock bottom, but Dugdale immediately got out her shovel and started digging furiously.

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This morning sees the release of another set of GERS (Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland) figures accompanied, no doubt, by the usual strange hybrid of sneering and cringing from Unionist politicians braying proudly that we’re too small, too subsidised and too stupid to ever look after our own country.

So as the annual circus act gets under way again, for a little perspective we took a quick look at Scotland’s actual standing in the international community.

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With this year’s GERS figures imminent, there are two stories about North Sea oil in today’s papers which are markedly different in both tone and honesty.

This, for example, is the front page of the Sunday Herald:

It’s basically a reprise of a Wings story from almost a year ago, noting that despite producing broadly similar amounts of oil to Scotland from the North Sea, Norway has generated tens of billions in pounds in government revenue from it – even during the price slump of recent years – while Scotland has actually LOST money.

The Sunday Times, though, has a rather different take.

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To be honest with you, readers, we’re still trying to make some sort of sense of the whole “vote Scottish Labour to get independence” thing. Because try as we might we can’t think of a single way in which having a Scottish Labour MP is better than having an SNP one in terms of either independence OR socialism.

And it doesn’t take a lot of effort to see why.

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The mainstream media is now, by our count, up to at least 13 sizeable articles on the Great Yes-Movement Schism Of 2017 – a minor online spat between a tiny handful of people who’ve never liked each other and most of whom the general public has never heard of – and shows no signs of tiring of gleefully revelling in the subject.

There’s nothing particularly surprising or even diabolical about that. As any reality-TV show viewer will tell you, viewers absolutely love to watch people fighting, and doubly so if it’s the summer silly season and there’s no real news. Most of the stories have attracted large responses and therefore lots of juicy and profitable clicks for tired hacks who long ago stopped having anything of any interest to say but still have to honk out 1000 words a week in order to get paid.

But the more sinister aspect of them is the way they’ve been weaponised to (further) demonise and silence the Yes movement. If someone attacks other Yes figures with a provocative, offensive and dishonest piece, the extra bonus for the media is that any legitimately angry response to it can be used as yet more proof of The Vileness Of The Cybernats: “Look! They even turn on their own if they dare disagree!”

For the Unionist press, that’s a win-win every way up, and there are some on the Yes side who seem only too willing to co-operate with the narrative.

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A reader sent us an interesting snippet of information today.

That seemed a startling fact, so we looked into it. And it’s true.

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Earlier today we reported on the mysterious failure of the Herald to notice that its front page lead story about supposedly poor ScotRail punctuality figures made a number of serious errors with regard to the facts, most notably confusing the excellent figures for last month with a 12-month rolling average which was significantly worse.

But as we read the rest of the papers, we noticed the oddest thing.

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This is the front-page lead on today’s Herald.

Let’s fact-check that, shall we?

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A series inspired by a Unionist blog insisting that “On a practical level, I do not believe for one moment that Scotland could thrive alone”, and which led to our thinking about some of the world’s other independent nations.

NO. 4 – SWITZERLAND

Switzerland has a problem, readers.

Those poor Swiss, eh?

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