Wings Over Scotland

This is Andy Brough, the Executive Director at Schroders Investment Management Ltd, discussing the referendum and currency on the Bloomberg channel yesterday.

He predicts a Yes vote in the referendum, and that Scotland and the rUK will share the pound, regardless of what George Osborne says. He predicts a “chaotic” aftermath, but seems rather relaxed overall at the prospect of an independent Scotland in a currency union. And for a senior City financier, he seems to have a very perceptive grasp on the reasons behind Scottish Labour’s backing for the Union.

Last week we highlighted the dismissive, contemptuous attitude of many Scottish Labour MPs and MSPs to questions from their constituents, an approach perhaps borne of the safe seats occupied by most of those concerned. However, some politicians from the three Unionist parties in Scotland do still deign to correspond with the electorate, and it would be unfair of us not to acknowledge and credit them for that.

Below, then, are the other responses that Wings readers received to a number of questions relating to independence that we suggested they might like to pose to their elected representatives way back in July. (We’ve given it six weeks, and it seems safe to assume that any who haven’t replied by now aren’t going to.)

It’s a lengthy read, but we think you’ll find it enlightening.

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Here are two snippets from a couple of recent “Better Together” leaflets:

Curiously, that 16% increase has fallen to 13% in their latest “briefing” full of made-up numbers Blair McDougall has pulled out of – well, let’s be polite and say “thin air”. But since they’ve been specifically named, let’s just check the claim with Tesco.

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…you probably write for the Express.

Yesterday we posted a couple of tweets observing the fact that the Scottish media had conspicuously ignored the phenomenon that is The Wee Blue Book. (We’d have made more of the total blanking had we been even a little bit surprised.)

Despite having extensively reported almost every other document published about the referendum debate (such as Sir Tom Hunter’s almost-impenetrable digital-only effort), the press saw nothing at all newsworthy about a 72-page book that’s been downloaded over 400,000 times online and which a small team of complete amateurs had managed to fund, print and distribute more than 250,000 physical copies of in a matter of days, with demand still far outstripping supply.

But it turned out we were being a little unfair.

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Bill Leckie in the Scottish Sun, 4 September 2014:

“I still have a list of nagging doubts, not least over who emerges to lead this new state. It’s just that… well, whereas not so long ago these doubts were what held me back, today they somehow seem exciting.

Will it turn out a Yes vote? Don’t ask me. I’m still too busy trying to work out exactly what it was about that conversation [with my son] that changed my mind on the most important collective decision we will ever make.

Today, I can still only offer this guess. That when all is said and done, maybe it just feels better to believe in something that could be amazing than to settle for what can never be better than OK.”

All 250,000 copies of the Wee Blue Book have now left the printers and should have reached their destinations, from which they’ll be spread far and wide. Many are already in Yes shops and on street stalls and thousands are in the hands of the public.

If you’ve got one, please read it and PASS IT ON afterwards – we’ll print truckloads of souvenir editions after a Yes vote, so you don’t need to hang onto it as a keepsake. It’s no good adorning the mantelpiece, it needs to be in front of undecideds and soft No voters. (Or hard ones if you think there’s even a sliver of light in their minds.)

We don’t have a definitive list of where the books can be found – the Yes movement is an organic grassroots network and there’s no way of predicting where they’ll end up after the pallet comes off the printers’ lorry. We’ve shipped boxes to Shetland, Skye, Stornoway and Selkirk and all points in between. (Some not beginning with “S”.)

But we’ll keep you updated when we hear of sightings. The info hotline is our Twitter feed, and you can also keep an eye on the dedicated Wee Blue Facebook page.

Meanwhile, though, there’s other stuff you can do.

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From industry recruitment website oilandgaspeople.com today:

“Scotland could be sitting on more than double the amount of oil and gas reserves currently predicted, a new independent industry investigation has found. The investigation reveals that the scale of Scotland’s untapped frontier West Coast or Atlantic Margin has been underestimated.

The investigation was undertaken by oilandgaspeople.com, the world’s largest oil and gas industry jobs board, and independent North Sea oil and gas industry experts. The investigation included interviews with industry experts and collated seismic and expert evidence from a range of independent sources such as the British Geological Survey, DECC, oil and gas companies, the Institute of Petroleum Engineering and the  Energy Institute.

The findings show that the current predictions of extensive untapped reserves of oil and gas could be underestimated by 100%. The West Coast alone could provide oil and gas for at least 100 years with an estimated value of more than £1 trillion.”

Another 100 years? A trillion pounds? When will this curse be lifted from Scotland?

Here’s the BBC News website quoting defence secretary Michael Fallon today, on the announcement of a £3.5 billion order for almost 600 new armoured vehicles:

“‘Nato was formed on the basis that Europe would pay her way. Like any insurance policy, defence only pays out when you pay in.

US taxpayers won’t go on picking up the cheque if we choose to prioritise social welfare spending when the threats are on our doorstep.’

BBC defence correspondent Jonathan Beale said the comment on threats was a reference to Russian military intervention in Ukraine.”

Let’s study that for a moment, shall we?

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If anyone was still harbouring any doubts as to the significance of last night’s poll news, they would surely have been dispelled by this serious, thought-provoking and perceptive analysis on the BBC news channel’s “The Papers” roundup last night.

Of course, the poll might be a rogue. It might just be a temporary bounce from the second Salmond-Darling debate. And it still shows No in front. The Yes campaign will have to redouble its efforts in the last couple of weeks, not start congratulating itself.

But the one thing we can surely all agree on, right across the political divides, is that the most important aspect is whether someone might at some point have been slightly rude to Andrew Lloyd Webber on Twitter or not.

The rather sour Times leader linked in the tweet doesn’t actually specify the numbers, and the poll isn’t officially released yet as we write this, but we’d been hearing rumours of a Y47 N53 (excl. DKs) for a little while beforehand, so it looks like they were true.

Less than a month ago, YG stood at Y39 N61. If these numbers are confirmed, that’s a colossal 8% swing in three weeks, from the most No-friendly pollster around.

Game, as they say, on.

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