We thought you might be interested to see some of the working of this post from yesterday. Of the 2.4m votes cast in Scotland in the 2010 UK general election, not far short of a million – if a recent YouGov poll is to be believed – are currently likely to be cast for different parties in 2015. And it’s intriguing to see where they’ll go.
Keen followers of Scottish politics, and in particular Scottish Labour, have in recent days found themselves experiencing something of a deja vu overload. Leadership contender Jim Murphy has been all over the media recycling apologies and pledges of reform dating back up to seven years from previous leaders.
But this morning readers could be forgiven for finding themselves a little confused.
Wendy Alexander, 2007:
“It is a journey that I am determined will end with Scottish Labour back in power at Holyrood.
So: listen, reform, don’t just bash the Nats. Got it. How hard can it be?
Some SNP supporters have – rightly, in this site’s view – called for calm and caution over this week’s opinion polls, showing the Nats at stratospheric support levels and, supposedly, on course to win either 54 or 47 of Scotland’s 59 Westminster seats next May. Given the huge gaps that the SNP would have to close in order to take each individual seat, those numbers seem extremely optimistic to anyone familiar with First Past The Post, even given Scottish Labour’s ongoing implosion.
So rather than rely on dodgy uniform-swing predictors, we thought we’d try something a bit simpler but also more scientific and likely to come up with a believable result.
There’ll be some more psephology coming up on Wings next week, readers, so we thought we’d get prepared by having a delve around in the inner workings of this week’s YouGov findings and seeing if we could find a few interesting nuggets.
To his credit, Ed Miliband seems to have noticed that his party is crumbling beneath his feet. The rot is spreading down from Scotland, and Labour’s vote in Rochester & Strood – a seat it held, with slightly different boundaries, as recently as 2010 – has plummeted to just 16% despite voters in the constituency naming the NHS (usually Labour’s strongest field) as their top priority.
And when modern-day Labour panics, it reaches for a little hammer and smashes the glass on a box marked “IN CASE OF ABSOLUTE EMERGENCY TRY SOCIALISM”, in which it keeps a very old, moth-eaten piece of paper titled “House of Lords reform”.
So today Miliband suddenly pulled what seems to be a brand-new box-fresh policy out of – well, let’s be polite and say “the ether”.
The Lords is to be abolished, we’re told, and replaced with a new elected “Senate”, which will conveniently also serve as some form of regional devolution, though its specific responsibilities and powers have – readers will doubtless be quite astonished to hear – not been laid out.
Mr Miliband’s only problem will be getting anyone to believe it.
Sometimes, readers, analysis is simply unnecessary, because the news speaks for itself. We’re not just saying that because it’s a lovely sunny day outside in unseasonal t-shirt temperatures, either, because it’s difficult to think of what needs to be added to a polling result saying that – far from being sick of the whole issue after three years of constitutional debate – a three-to-two majority of Scots would welcome a second independence referendum within just FIVE years, and a two-to-one majority would be happy to have one within a decade.
When you add in the findings of a completely different poll which revealed that were the referendum tomorrow Scotland would vote Yes by 52-48 (a huge 7% swing in as many weeks), it doesn’t take much in the way of professional insight to deduce the mood of the nation, particularly in the context of pro-independence parties having trebled their membership while the hollowed-out shell of Scottish Labour implodes and a panicking media tries frantically to anoint Jim Murphy – Jim Murphy – as its saviour.
So we’re off to the park for a bit.
It’s been impossible to know where to start today. Last night hundreds of angry protestors picketed a £200-a-seat banquet in Glasgow at which Scottish Labour “showcase[d] the party in front of donors and business figures” in a desperate bid to raise cash for the branch office (which survives on handouts from the UK party), and at which deputy leader Anas Sarwar, less than 48 hours after vowing he’d remain in his position, announced that he’d step down after all.
Despite being the deputy, Sarwar wasn’t stepping down to contest the leadership, but rather to smooth the path of Jim Murphy. Murphy is London’s preferred candidate, but even Labour aren’t dim enough to want to run Holyrood with London-based MPs in BOTH of the leadership roles, so Sarwar pulled a swift U-turn to offer a potential “dream ticket” of Murphy and Kezia Dugdale, a Lothians list MSP who this week told the Edinburgh Evening News that she intends to leave politics within 10 years.
(Then again, in 2011 Jim Murphy told Labour List he wouldn’t consider running for Scottish leader for “maybe 20 years” and he’s only waited three, so who knows?)
But there’s so much more going on.
Our favourite pundit, Scotsman clickbait troll John McTernan, 23 October 2014:
The first full-size Scottish opinion poll on 2015 Westminster voting intentions after this disastrous routing’s probably going to be a sore one for the Nats, then.
Here’s a picture of Jim Murphy campaigning for a No vote a few weeks ago.
Except it isn’t, is it?
Jim Murphy has finally announced that he’ll stand for the leadership of the Scottish branch office of the UK Labour Party. Tonight he told the Daily Record that:
“I am not going to shout at or about the SNP, I am going to talk to and listen to Scotland.”
For any of you who might have forgotten, here’s some recent footage of how Jim listens to Scotland and avoids shouting about the SNP:
Wings Over Scotland is a thing that exists.
