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Wings Over Scotland


Moving on

Posted on September 19, 2016 by

Exactly two years ago today (how time flies), we wrote this:

soitgoes

It doesn’t seem overly immodest to say that we pretty much nailed it. But if that was then and this is now, what of tomorrow?

A referendum in which Yes fell just 5.4% short of the winning post was never going to settle the constitutional question for a generation, no matter how frantically Unionists try to distort a few quotes to that effect. That’s just not how real-life politics works, and in any event the Good Friday Agreement and the Northern Ireland Act 1998 effectively define a political “generation” as seven years in a referendum context.

The bottom line is that you can’t stand in the way of a nation’s political will with semantics. But this year’s Brexit vote put a turbo-boost on something that was almost certainly going to happen within a decade anyway.

Having voted by a far bigger margin to stay in the EU than to stay in the UK, it’s simply not credible that Scotland could then be torn out of Europe without being given a final chance to choose which union it prefers. All that remains to be settled is when.

If the UK government had put a tenth as much preparation into its “Plan A” for a Leave vote as the Scottish Government did over independence (their respective paperwork was the 176,000-word White Paper versus a pitiful 1,523-word leaflet urging a Remain vote), Article 50 would have been triggered the day after the vote and the process would be well under way already.

But the reckless incompetence of Westminster has thrown a spanner in the works. Furiously stalling for time, the UK government doesn’t even plan to begin negotiations for months. And so ineptly, haphazardly and reluctantly is it dealing with a result that neither the previous nor current Prime Ministers wanted that nobody can say with any credible certainty when the process will end.

davisbrexit

Nevertheless, one day it must. Article 50 imposes an iron time limit of two years on the subsequent talks, and Theresa May can’t fob off the angry Leave voters of England and Wales forever. Next year sees a tranche of English council elections in almost exclusively Tory areas (as well as the whole of Scotland), and it’d be a brave PM who went into those having STILL not triggered Article 50.

So if we assume it must happen by next May, that makes May 2019 the logical cut-off point for Brexit. It’s coincidentally also the date the next European election is due – an event which of course remains on the UK political calendar, precisely because we haven’t even begun the process of Brexit yet.

It would be farcical for the UK to still be an EU member at that point – because we’d still have to hold those elections if there was no clear exit date in place – but in the current UK political climate, something being farcical is no barrier to it happening.

Nevertheless, let’s take it as the closest thing that we’ve got to a rationally plausible outcome. It would make sense to hold a second indyref at the same time. It would massively reduce the costs and admin, and it’s infinitely preferable from everyone’s point of view – Scotland’s, the EU’s and the rUK’s – for Scotland to STAY in the EU rather than to be dragged out then try to JOIN at a later date.

(Honestly, it’s simply not possible to overstate how much that’s the case. For about a thousand mainly pretty obvious reasons the technicalities of the latter scenario, for all three entities, would by comparison be absolutely insanely complex and costly. It’d be a lot less trouble just to go to war with Russia.)

Given the language already coming from Europe, the EU would almost certainly be amenable to granting Scotland some sort of temporary bridging membership allowing it to continue without a break while the fine details were thrashed out. The Unionist myth of a Spanish veto would finally be torpedoed, because staying in would be a matter for qualified-majority voting. This time people would know exactly what they were voting on, rather than the No camp’s lies that Yes meant out and No meant in.

So, indyref 2 in May 2019? It makes as much sense as anything else. And make no mistake, for all of its “No Surrender, Er, We Mean No More Referendums” talk (and all of its incessant demands that the SNP simply give up its primary reason for existing and get on with everyday governance), the Unionist camp is in full preparation.

no2nd

The Sunday Times yesterday carried a report of a recent fundraising dinner for the hardline nutter collective Scotland In Union, which by auctioning off hunting, shooting and fishing weekends and Swiss chalet holidays to an audience of wealthy elites – including the renowned republican socialist Baron Alistair Darling of Roulanish and the under-secretary of state for Scotland, Baron Andrew Dunlop – was said to have gathered a startling £300,000 for the shadowy loongroup.

scotlandinauction

(We fervently hope it uses the money to put on more speaking events featuring spectacular moon-howling fruitcakes like Tom Gallagher and Jill Stephenson, perhaps in a tour encompassing the whole of Scotland or a two-hour film or somesuch. Were their mad, inflammatory and poisonous rantings to ever be exposed to an audience with an average age below 65, a landslide victory for Yes would surely result.)

siuhistoryloonies

The story shows that the Yes camp will again struggle to compete financially with the massed might of the British establishment – it only managed to stay even vaguely in contention last time thanks to the generosity of a pair of lottery winners, despite the hilarious protestations of “Better Together” that they were the economic underdogs.

underdogs

(In the end, No campaigners outspent Yes ones by over 150%.)

outspent

But where Yes undoubtedly has the advantage is people power. In 2014 Tory money was able to fund a Labour ground operation (even if much of it had to be bussed up from England), but Labour is now a tattered flag flying limply over a pile of broken rubble, and far too busy fighting itself to play much of a role in any second indyref.

And the Yes movement is already mobilising again in preparation for a new campaign, even without any political-party organisation or backing.

glasgowmarch

glasgowmarch2

The reason both sides are gearing up for battle again is that regardless of their rhetoric it actually suits both of them to have a second vote sooner rather than later.

For the Yes side there’s the urgency of staying in Europe, the natural impatience of the recently-defeated and the fear of lost momentum. Plus by the spring of 2019 it’ll almost certainly be obvious that Scotland is looking at at least another six years of brutal Tory governments it didn’t elect, and the further away a social-democratic UK government looks the more attractive independence is to most Scottish voters.

But the No camp don’t really want to hang around either, because for all the perpetual avalanches of “peak SNP” articles in the newspapers, the reality is that they know the reverse is true – the 2016 election is in fact far more likely to have represented “peak Unionism”, at least for the forseeable future.

mundellbrits

Labour’s support in Scotland is still in freefall, with the most recent polls showing it down by over a quarter even on its calamitous performance in the Holyrood election four months ago. And while a more or less unconcealed return to the old sectarian Loyalist outlook of its 1950s heyday has seen the Tories get a boost, that support has a ceiling only a little higher than the party’s current position.

Barring unforseeable extreme events like Nicola Sturgeon falling down a well or being seen on TV machine-gunning orphan babies, there’s no feasible scenario for anyone other than the SNP running Scotland for the next decade. Even a so-called “grand coalition” of Tories, Labour and Lib Dems would struggle to get enough votes together to elect a First Minister in 2021, particularly given the political difficulty of Labour MSPs voting for a Tory one, among many other likely problems.

(Under the Holyrood electoral system, tactical voting probably reached its practical limits in May with the small handful of FPTP seats plucked from the SNP tsunami by the likes of Willie Rennie, Ruth Davidson, Daniel Johnson and Alex Cole-Hamilton.)

colehamilton

And what all three Unionist parties know is that broadly speaking, the longer the SNP are in control of the government of Scotland the closer independence gets. They’ve watched in uncomprehending horror as even a collapse in oil revenues to almost zero and an endless diet of TERRIFYING BLACK HOLE stories in the media hasn’t put a single dent in poll ratings for either the Nats or for independence.

They also know that those polls still show them in the lead, that things are only likely to get worse as Brexit unfolds, and that a second defeat in quick succession would knock independence on the head for a long time. (Apart from anything else, it’s hard to imagine what would be a bigger material change in the future than Brexit.)

So to cut a long story short, we’re putting our hard-won prediction record on the line: keep your diaries clear for the first half of 2019, folks.

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    4 Trackbacks/Pingbacks

    1. 01 01 17 21:44

      The 1st of Chaos, 3183 | A Wilderness of Peace

    561 to “Moving on”

    1. heedtracker says:

      mike cassidy says:
      21 September, 2016 at 9:38 am
      One of Nana’s links also drew my attention to this little gem.

      MSM – don’t you just love them!

      It is interesting, same outfit hired by BBC and C4. Doubt the author’s that shocked though.

      “Posted by Tom Pride in hopeless naivety ? 33 Comments
      Even cynical old me is a bit shocked by this.
      Last year, BBC Panorama made an anti-Corbyn programme – Jeremy Corbyn Labour’s Earthquake – about the rise of Jeremy Corbyn’s popularity in what was called a hatchet job by Corbyn’s team.
      But the programme was not actually made by the BBC.”

      C4 Dispatches had a hidden cam on someone in the same lift as JC and it looked pretty scary, waiting for JC to say something terrible wasn’t nice, but he just cracked a bad joke about ISIS having an office in Bond street. Why the C4 gimps thought that that was worth broadcasting? JC looks like a chatty old lecturer being nice to freshers.

      And so, if JC wins and for the rest of lives, tory BBC led media will be shrieking at us day in day out, JC bad, SNP v v bad.

    2. Nana says:

      A couple more links

      This one archived but there is a video you can watch if you want to go direct to the Bloomberg site

      London-s-less-vital-after-brexit-than-banks-think-eu-ceos-say
      http://archive.is/6wMnX

      http://news.scotland.gov.uk/News/-9-million-commitment-to-emergency-care-2b77.aspx?

    3. Smallaxe says:

      Nana:

      Your link about Carswell the UKIP nutter arguing with a scientist about the tides was good fun, I was able to put in a
      BTL post,which by the way was very true but I wonder if anyone
      will argue my point. 🙂

    4. Jack Murphy says:

      OT.
      “BC journalists are paid up to forty per cent more than their competitors in the commercial sector, according to a leaked review of salaries in the corporation’s news division.[!!!]

      The report, carried out for the BBC by financial consultants PwC, warns that rank-and-file staff in the BBC’s 7,000-strong news division enjoy salaries that are “higher than the market median”. …………………………”

      TODAY. The Telegraph UK edition: http://archive.is/NyRrE

    5. Luigi says:

      Brian McHugh says:

      21 September, 2016 at 7:30 am

      Kezia banging on about SLAB being autonomous… well that worked out well over the last few years. Sheesh!

      According to the BBC, Scottish Labour will become the most powerful autonomous party in the world.

      We’re doomed, Ah tell ye!

    6. Nana says:

      @Smallaxe

      Check out the tweets below but I warn you now your sides will ache.

      #Carswell

    7. Kevin Evans says:

      @TheItailianJob

      Don’t even get me started on sir Ian fuck off wood.

      It infuriated me during indyref he had the Gaul and cheek to say he was worried about her grandchildrens future so he felt he had to speak out. A billionaire worried about his grand children’s future. I almost hit the roof with that one. I am pretty confident he was arranging some sort of fracking deal and his fee for future contracts was to come out and speak against Indy.

      There are a lot of people who need to live with themselves. I happily walk past any and all mirrors in my house and look at myself.

    8. schrodingers cat says:

      Valerie says
      A50 will be triggered early 2017.
      I think indyref2 will be late summer 2018.

      agreed, although, the longer that TM waits next year to trigger A50, eg the end of April, That would give nicola the option of holding indyref2 in april 2019. Also, pressure from brexit voters prior to the council elections, (labour are dead but UKIP could threaten again) from MPs within her own party and from the EU may force her hand before April.

      flies in the ointment… german and french elections, this could change the Eus attitude to scotland, at least in public. It could be argued that the Eu presidents meeting nicola and some of the comments by some of the european politicians, dont just look like the eu meddling and attempting to break up a european state, that’s exactly what they are.
      this is why westminster was so annoyed when the mep chosen to lead the eu negotiations was Guy “Belgium may not be a proper country mr farage but at least we are still a country…btw, are you still laughing!” Verhofstadt

      I think it is now pretty certain that indyref2 will happen between spring 2018 and spring 2019, we are now down to arguing about a few months either way.

      What we should take from this article is that indyref2 is going to happen and we should prepare for it as much as we can while we are in this period of a “Drole de Guerre”

    9. manandboy says:

      A little light relief :

      Government borrowing figures are out this morning, and they are worse than expected. This is from the Press Association.

      Government borrowing was higher than expected in August after a disappointing surplus a month earlier.

      The Office for National Statistics (ONS) said public sector net borrowing, which does not include public sector banks, dropped by £900m to £10.5bn year on year, against economists’ forecasts for £10bn.

      Government borrowing for the fiscal year to date – the period from April to August – decreased by £4.9bn to £33.8bn, compared with the same period last year.

      Alan Clarke, head of European fixed income strategy at Scotiabank, said. “It is a case of so far so good for the public finances this fiscal year. It is far, far too soon to expect to see any hint of a Brexit effect.”

      It comes after a lower-than-expected surplus of £1bn in July, which was down £200m on the same month last year, and lower than forecasts of £1.6bn.

      July figures are usually higher as self-employed people pay their income tax and businesses settle corporation tax bills.

      In June, government borrowing fell to its lowest level since 2007 at £7.8bn.

      The ONS said public sector net debt excluding banks climbed to £1.6 trillion, equivalent to 83.6% of gross domestic product (GDP)

    10. heedtracker says:

      Kevin Evans says:
      21 September, 2016 at 12:20 pm
      @TheItailianJob

      Don’t even get me started on sir Ian fuck off wood.

      If you’re wondering where a UKOK oil fund like Norway’s near trillion dollar version went, quite a lot is in his bank account.

      Wood’s one of a few right place right super rich of Aberdeen and keeps his crew of management very rich too. One of them recently demolished a lovely old Victorian mansion near me and then rebuilt it. Cost? who gives an etc… £5+ million. Cheap really.

      All of the riches beyond avarice hoovered up by likes of this dude during the course of our Aberdeen lifetime, is all down to red and blue tory economic policy in merry olde London toon. It made no difference if you voted Lab or Con, two cheeks of the same UKOK arse.

      His sons drive very noisy Lambos too.

      https://www.lamborghini.com/en-en/

      If you’ve got it, flaunt it, as we say in Aberdeen. If you haven’t got it, you know who has got it etc.

    11. I think we should factor in the possibility of a significant revival of Labour support and membership in Scotland when Corbyn wins. This does not of course mean significant revival of Labour’s electoral success opportunity but it might do us no good.

      We come back to a question I keep asking of our new friends.

      If the UK was to be guaranteed a socialist government would you still support Scottish independence?

      If the UK was to be guaranteed a Green government would you still support Scottish Independence?

    12. Smallaxe says:

      Nana:

      Where does UKIP get these clowns,Billy Smart’s,Cadona’s or
      Carstairs Hospital for the criminally hilarious:-)

      Did you see my BTL post,nobody has put anything in since?

    13. Stoker says:

      Nana
      Re your post at 10am, i’ll add another wee feel good story.

      A neighbour of mines and her hubby, both English, both been in Scotland now for a few years, she’s retired but her younger hubby still has to work and both were unionists. As far as i’m aware they both voted no at the referendum but the tide is turning and the mouse is beginning to roar.

      At the last Scottish elections they voted SNP for the very first time and such is her hatred (and that’s putting it mildly) for Yon Dim Ruth she couldn’t wait to voice her opinions.

      She told me, with passion and a face fit for a bulldog chewing a wasp, “I detest that Davidson woman, i just can’t stand the site of her, what’s she on with all those photo shoots sitting on top of tanks and some sort of buffalo? Who’s she trying to impress?”

      She went on, “And the lies that come out of her mouth, oh good lord give me strength” then straight into “but i like that Nicola Sturgeon, she’s good, she knows what she’s doing and talking about, if only we had a lot more like her.”

      I could only nod in agreement as i tried hopelessly to contain my pleasure at this small but important advance in our cause. I just about managed to temper my joy with a little reinforcement, “You don’t realise how happy that makes me feel when i hear people, especially English people, coming out with things like that because the BUM media repeatedly attempts to portray us as some sort of English hating headcases when nothing can be further from the truth.” She nodded furiously in agreement.

      I then left her with a wee jokey dig at her Englishness when i added, “Goodness knows, there’s enough of yous in the SNP yous are almost running the show, i’m beginning to think there’s some sort of covert operation going on to take Scotland for yourselves.”

      We both had a right good belly laugh and it was left at that. Oh, and i’ve since kept up the reinforcement by furnishing them with a Wee Black Book discretely popped through their door.

      Aye, lets hope that tide truly is turning, it’s very encouraging also to be reading that groups such as ‘English Scots for Indy’ are stepping up their game and look set to be playing a far bigger part next time round. Well done, folks, step up the fight!

    14. galamcennalath says:

      Jack Murphy says:

      “BC journalists are paid up to forty per cent more than their competitors in the commercial sector”

      … and what they get is almost certainly too much for what they actually do.

      What do they do!? Their standard of English is sometimes poor, and I see absolutely no evidence they have any depth of knowledge when they cover subjects.

      I reckon a huge number of adults off the street could step into their shoes. All you need is to have a reasonable level of literacy and be able to speak in a confident clear manner. The stories they run are superficial at best, or press releases, or news feeds, or worst of all, plagiarism from elsewhere.

      Now, if they were actually asked to do investigative journalism, understand subjects in detail, and come up with original challenging stories, that would be quite different!

    15. Clootie says:

      Heed tracker @ 12:39

      Nothing pisses me off more than “Sir” Ian Wood getting touted as an Oil & Gas expert. He ran a Engineering support company and a body shop supplier for the Offshore industry. Does that mean that the head of the cleaning company which has the contract at a City of London bank is a financial expert!

      He did a good job building up a SUPPORT/SERVICES company but he is NOT an Oil & Gas expert.

    16. heedtracker says:

      Dave McEwan Hill says:
      21 September, 2016 at 12:44 pm
      I think we should factor in the possibility of a significant revival of Labour support and membership in Scotland when Corbyn wins. This does not of course mean significant revival of Labour’s electoral success opportunity but it might do us no good.

      A JC Lab gov has almost no chance of happening. Watch red toryboys like Bliar Macbloater, Macternan, Hothersall and Dr NO! all frantically tweeting vote Owen, just like blue tory UKOK lunatics, like effie beans and the History Woman.

      None of them can ever say publicly, A JC Labour gov will never be allowed by any of the tory BBC led media, just like how the same tory freak show will never allow Scottish independence.

      So chillax Dave. Google Michael Mackintosh Foot. Murdoch and the BBC bettertogether destroyed that guy.

    17. Valerie says:

      This is a proper smack. If anyone thinks the EU are not going to play hardball, read this.

      http://uk.businessinsider.com/britain-brexit-article-50-european-union-theresa-may-2016-9

      What I wasn’t really aware of, is just how much Osborne pissed of the EU. He was told on a number of occasions that legal action would be taken with regard to some tax negotiations with Switzerland.

      I feel we don’t know the half of it.

    18. TheItalianJob says:

      @Heedtracker and Kevin Evans

      Yes we mortals can hold our heads high and look ourselves in the mirror. What about the big money men who are greedy like Ian Woods, his associates and family. What are they going to give back to the people and the country of Scotland (not the UK) gave them. Not much I guess. The problem as we know it they only care for themselves no matter what.

      As Heedtracker keeps on stating its the Red and Blue Tories in cahoots that has led to this greed. Just look at Blair, Brown and Darling. Socialists? Don’t make me laugh. They don’t know the meaning of the term and have just followed the corrupt system and fooled their Labour followers accordingly.

      The time of the honest people will come.

    19. Chic McGregor says:

      Interesting Stoker.

      I think the Brexit campaign has polarised opinion on Europe and the thought occurs that English folk who have moved to Scotland may tend to be, de facto almost, less intrinsically xenophobic than average.

      Hopefully Brexit will instigate a large conversion from No to Yes in that group for indyref2.

    20. heedtracker says:

      He did a good job building up a SUPPORT/SERVICES company but he is NOT an Oil & Gas expert

      Wood made his billions feeding off of hard core Thatcherite de-reged and de-unionised economics. Wood group was able to build on the remaining heavy industry workforce left pretty much fcuked by the tory closure of Clyde and Tyneside shipbuilding in the 80’s.

      There was still thousands of very high skilled and experienced workers heading for the dole or emigrating but he didn’t have to actually employ any of them. Thatcher made contract hire the law so a welder from Tyneside was never actually employed by likes of Wood Group. Short term job to job, no investment, no training costs, no pension costs, get them in, make the money, get the fcuk out. Certainly no Sir Ian Wood centre of excellence engineering departments for colleges and uni’s. Why would he, he’s minted, maybe even richer than JK Rowling!

      We know that Norway took a very different heavy industrial rout to teamGB but its as simple as this. All that set Wood Group apart for the big contract sellers like Shell and BP was simply that Wood Group paid a bit more than anyone else but they bought higher productivity short term.

      Long term and economically who gives a UKOK fcuk. When you hear billionaires like Wood waffle for teamGB, he’s only protecting his vast wealth, nothing more.

    21. dandy dons 1903 says:

      Oil and Gas Expert Yoon “Sir Ian Wood” knows about as much about the oil and gas industry as say you or me, I think Wood would be better described as an jumped up trawlerman who got very lucky. But you wont hear that in the unionist msm!

    22. Arbroath1320 says:

      Oh dear … looks like the Scotsman’s wee independence poll may not be going exactly the way they want it to go.

      I know I linked to the article earlier this morning but for those who haven’t yet voted here it is again.

      http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/alex-salmond/alex-salmond-once-in-a-generation-referendum-was-estimation-1-4234980

      Currently 62% for Yes the issue remains unresolved. 😀

    23. Lochside says:

      Chic McGregor@ 1.05pm….don’t know that English residents, old or new are ‘less xenophobic’…but certainly based on the Brexit vote, areas that were resolutely ‘NO’ in the REF, and where large English populations live e.g. Edinburgh, the Highlands and the Borders, it was astonishing, to me, that this cohort apparently voted in the majority to ‘Remain’.

      From that I concluded that these English voters had come to the decision that the SNP and NS are a ‘safe pair of hands’…good managers of government, and more importantly, more likely to keep them and Scotland in the EU. Cynical old me saw this vote as an economic based one, not a Damascene conversion to Scottish Independence.

    24. Still Positive. says:

      Lochside @ 1.43pm

      I noted the same as you – that the highest No voting areas returned almost exactly the highest Remain vote – I put that down to possibly a lot of residents involved in Higher Education or research. They were perhaps worried that we would not be in the EU when independent.

      Hope that is not wishful thinking on my part.

    25. Stoker says:

      Chic, you wrote:

      “Hopefully Brexit will instigate a large conversion from No to Yes in that group for indyref2.”

      Aye, here’s hoping Chic! I don’t see any major reason why it won’t, especially if groups such as the one i mentioned really do step up their game and get themselves seen and heard.

      Unfortunately, maybe, but i also have another wee story i witnessed a couple of days ago and it really makes you wonder what the hell is going on.

      I was sitting in a pub having a wee sherbet or two and just observing the local clientele of half-a-dozen retired men supping their pints and catching up on the local gossip.

      Suddenly one of them blurts out; “AH GOAT AH PHONE CALL FAE WAN AE THEY PAKI BASTIRTS THIS MOARNIN. AH TELT THEM TAE FUCK AFF AH DINNY NEED TAE SWITCH MA COMPUTER OAN COZ AV NO FUCKIN GOAT YIN, AN AH JIST PIT THE THING DOON OAN THUM!”

      Needless to say that set the tone of their conversation for the next 10-minutes or so but worse than that, for me, was when the young(ish) barmaid (about late twenties to mid thirties) joined in with a very similar tone and views.

      I have no idea where these people stand on Scottish independence but i wasn’t about to hang around and ask because (a): i was already fuming and (b): i was getting a distinct waft of Britnat.

      On another day i may have tried a different tact but Monday wasn’t that day. Just thought i’d share that with Wingers because, as most of us know, that’s one difficult element we are up against, possibly!

    26. bjsalba says:

      @Valerie
      You said that you felt that we don’t know the half of it.

      Join the club.

      I try to visit European and International sites to get better information than we get in our MSM. My language skills are limited, but from what I do find and translate we get a very slewed picture. What we get are carefully selected snippets. – cherry-picked.

      For example when Donald Tusk came the cherry-picked line was that “the ball was in May’s court”. I managed to find a more complete report of what he said and the emphasis was quite different. Basically Europe is tired of waiting, and has made that clear to Ms May. The UK media glossed over that.

      I see this happening time and time again. It is very frustrating.

    27. heedtracker says:

      dandy dons 1903 says:
      21 September, 2016 at 1:18 pm
      Oil and Gas Expert Yoon “Sir Ian Wood” knows about as much about the oil and gas industry as say you or me, I think Wood would be better described as an jumped up trawlerman who got very lucky. But you wont hear that in the unionist msm!

      Wood Group was and is a big offshore construction or fabrication firm. They built a core engineering unit and contract hire everything else. Huge numbers of NOT Scots oil platform top sides are all built by Wood Group.

      A number of fishing based maritime companies in the early 70 made a lot of money out of the oil industry but they don’t have an Ian Wood telling everyone that Scotland cant be run by Scotland.

    28. Luigi says:

      O/T: Apparently, Owen Smith has already conceded defeat. If this turns out so, there will be a lot of sour-faced red tories tomorrow. My heart bleeds. Stick that in yer pipe and smoke it, Mr Kinnock. 🙂

    29. Breeks says:

      @ Valerie at 1:01pm

      That’s a scenario which is well worth keeping an eye on.

      If Westminster is flagrantly violating the rules about negotiating trade deals without first triggering Article 50, not only does it breach European Law and invite legal penalties and being sued for big bucks, but in my poorly informed non-legal opinion, it could also give the EU some latitude for holding the UK in contempt of EU legislation and membership, and could in theory simply expel the UK irrespective of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.

      Could that happen? Yes seems the answer. Just recently, Jean Asselborn, Luxemburgs foreign affairs minister called for Hungary to be expelled from the EU for its hostile attitude towards refugees.

      Being rational about it however, I don’t think that is very likely to happen, but if the UK continues to drag their feet, sooner or later the EU will put their lawyers onto the business of finding a workaround the technical bottleneck of Article 50, and then all bets are off.

      Expulsion might be described as Europe’s “nuclear” option, but Scotland should really do some groundwork onits own nuclear option, as in a summarily declared UDI, just to escape the blast radius.

      I feel sure such a scenario would only arise after some heated brinkmanship, but unless Westminster starts getting to grips with Brexit, then some pretty desperate brinkmanship might be exactly what lies ahead for all of us.

    30. heedtracker says:

      Arbroath1320 says:
      21 September, 2016 at 1:40 pm
      Oh dear … looks like the Scotsman’s wee independence poll may not be going exactly the way they want it to go.

      Thank you for the hootsman link. Hootsman comment section and sort by highest score is much like The Guardian too. What a lovely tory world we live in. No matter how Scots vote, its still rule by UKOK toryboy er, rule.

      415:06Tuesday 20 September 2016
      280
      HAVE YOUR SAY
      The former First Minister said it had only been an ‘estimation’ that constitutional referendums were once in a generation and that the political landscape had now changed.

      During the 2014 referendum campaign Mr Salmond stated that Scotland would only have to vote ‘once in a generation’ on the issue of Scottish independence.

      Now the MP for Gordon believes a second independence referendum will be held much sooner.

      READ MORE: Salmond urges Sturgeon not to wait for polls on indyref2

      Speaking on the BBC’s Good Morning Scotland programme yesterday, he said: “My estimation was that political constitutional referendums are once in a generation and I was making the example of 1979 and 1997 – that is why I always put it in that context every single time I said that.

      “But of course, things have changed. And why have they changed?”

      “Well since the referendum there has been 56 SNP MPs elected out of 59, the Scottish government has been re-elected with more MSPs than all the Unionist parties put together in the Scottish parliament and specifically, of course, on a manifesto promise.”

      READ MORE: SNP begins work on indyref2 white paper

      Mr Salmond added that: “if the circumstances are that Scotland gets dragged out of the European Union against the will of the Scottish people, then the Scottish parliament should have the right to hold another referendum.”

      Last night Scottish Labour Leader Kezia Dugdale said: “It is only two years since we had our say in the biggest political decision in Scotland’s history.

      “With all the challenges facing Scotland’s future, we shouldn’t return to the arguments of the past but should get on with using the new powers of our Scottish parliament”

      ’Like’ The Scotsman on Facebook for regular updates

      280 comments
      Sort by:
      (9)
      (132)

      Damian Thirsty Back Once Again
      11:31 AM on 20/09/2016
      Its time to shutdown the wee Scottish Executive thing and sell it to a hotel chain. It has been a hugely costly mistake.

      Shut it down, Scotland demands it
      2 replies
      (26)
      (5)

      Onwards
      2:34 PM on 20/09/2016
      Another anti-Scottish Tory who wants to go back to direct London rule..

      #knowyourplacejocks
      (4)
      (14)

      stignatius
      4:37 PM on 20/09/2016
      The only time I ever see comments like “know your place Jocks” or “too wee too stupid” is from
      nationalists. I think it’s what psychologists call projection.
      (4)
      (103)

      Muddy Puddles
      11:49 AM on 20/09/2016
      Mr Salmond added that: “if the circumstances are that Scotland gets dragged out of the European Union against the will of the Scottish people, then the Scottish parliament should have the right to hold another referendum.”

      The Scottish Parliament are going to call an independence referendum because Scotland is being dragged out of the EU ????????

      where fatboy does Scotlands name appear on the list of its MEMBERS ???

      Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Republic of Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden and the UK.

      Source; https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea

      he really takes the Scottish Nat electorate for mugs , and guess what they are so thick they dont know the difference between members and non members !!

      dip sticks the lot of them
      1 reply
      (5)
      (100)

      The Patriot
      11:40 AM on 20/09/2016
      An untrustworthy deceitful man who has a proven list of lies and untruths to his credit. Never, ever trust him or anything he says.
      As for estimations- what about the oil Eck?
      (2)
      (94)

      The Truth Can Hurt
      11:48 AM on 20/09/2016
      Another piece of guff from the Great Waldo.

      What an embarrassment from someone who used to be the First Minister. In politics, there is no such thing as an “estimation”.
      (2)
      (92)

      Dreams of Caledonia
      11:57 AM on 20/09/2016
      In her one and only press interview, Salmond’s wife said she stopped playing scrabble with him BECAUSE HE KEEPS CHANGING THE RULES.
      (5)
      (90)

      Jimifleemin
      11:40 AM on 20/09/2016
      You mean like your $113 per barrel oil estimate.
      When you said we were on the the verge of another oil boom, did you mean it was going to blow up, or did you not see that coming either?
      Not very good at estimating are you Alex.
      (1)
      (85)

      Another Voice 2
      11:49 AM on 20/09/2016
      Nippy claimed it was “once in a lifetime”
      http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-24147303

      It just goes to show you can’t beLIEve the words that come out of her mouth
      (1)
      (83)

      Lemonpiper GB
      11:56 AM on 20/09/2016
      How cringeworthy it is to watch Salmond, the narcissistic oaf trying to wriggle out of what he said. The man’s a loser, a liability, and a complete embarrassment to all decent Scots. Indy’s well and truly off the table. Why does he insist on insulting our intelligence? Who in their right mind would believe anything he says?
      1 reply
      (5)
      (85)

      stantheman
      11:41 AM on 20/09/2016
      81 % saying NO so far but the drunks are not up yet !!
      Not only no second ref but abolish Holyrood now !!

    31. galamcennalath says:

      Arbroath1320 says:

      “Scotsman’s wee independence poll may not be going exactly the way they want it to go.”

      … It says … “The former First Minister said it had only been an ‘estimation’ that constitutional referendums were once in a generation and that the political landscape had now changed.”

      FFS, this once in a generation thing … when that was said, as a personal opinion, Scotland had just been promised Home Rule, a permanent parliament in law, and guaranteed EU membership.

      Yoons may not like the idea of IndyRef2 but how can they deny the world has changed utterly?

      Who changed everything? Not the SNP. The Yoons must accept full responsibility for the inevitable.

    32. Dr Jim says:

      Good to see the BBC has been listening to Scotland and is piloting the new improved colourful and snazzy informative Scottish six news program

      With exactly the same presenters and experts that they had before and fronted by probably Scotlands most disliked newsreader and expert on the Vow and devo max Jackie Bird

      Did anyone get the feeling this might just might be a probability

      Just heard FOI requests from the BBC increased by 700% since the SNP came into government, so they do spend our tax money in Scotland, just not on TV programs

      STVs new Scottish news program already organised and ready to go with a new channel as well

      More new people are moving to Orkney but they’re older and more obese according to a new study out today
      While more younger not obese people are leaving Orkney

      Mental picture of the future of Orkney just appeared in my head of a town full of Carmichaels dressed as Mr Blobby demanding food and medicine on the NHS while waving their
      E1 elevens and referendum NO votes

      With sincere exhemptions to the folk of Orkney who don’t fit these sarcastic observations, you know who you are and you know I don’t mean you

    33. Smallaxe says:

      Geeo:

      If you happen to be looking in please let me know, I was otherwise engaged with another matter and did not see your post to myself until late.

      I answered your post at 9:57pm, 20th Sept. I would like to talk to you my friend.

      IF ANYONE SEE’S GEEO ON PLEASE LET ME KNOW! THANKS

    34. Kevin Evans says:

      Something else I’ve started to hear a lot like Kez (autonomous if allowed by jez) quote about the new powers. Heard a lot about “new powers”. The news goes on about “new powers”. The next indyref we’ll hear about “new powers”. The dangerous part is the adverage man on the street can’t name one of the “new powers” and probably don’t understand what they are.

      What I am saying is we need to nip that one in the bud before it becomes fact. No new powers unless you include road signs and the ability to over tax the public while Westminster takes it away through the block grant.

      Nip this one in the bud. Don’t give these unionists a leg to stand on next time.

    35. Les Wilson. says:

      Why do lots of people here continue to repeat the crap from Unionist, press and bloggers? Why the fuck do that all the time. Cut their oxygen do not give them more. Leave them talking to themselves………..

    36. heedtracker says:

      Just heard FOI requests from the BBC increased by 700% since the SNP came into government, so they do spend our tax money in Scotland, just not on TV programs

      How much is an FOI? At least BBC vote NO Scotland are pushing some money into Scotland.

      https://www.gov.uk/make-a-freedom-of-information-request/the-freedom-of-information-act

    37. heedtracker says:

      When you’ll get a response
      You should get the information within 20 working days. The organisation will tell you when to expect the information if they need more time.

      Costs
      Most requests are free but you might be asked to pay a small amount for photocopies or postage. You’ll be told by the organisation if you have to pay anything.

      Oh.

    38. ben madigan says:

      @galamcennalath, Jack Murphy and others on BBC bias

      Hope you will enjoy this post, particularly the analysis of BBc and STV bias during indyref1 and Noam chomsky wiping the floor with Andrew Marr

      https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/09/20/the-true-story-of-and-media-bias/

    39. Dr Jim says:

      Ireland’s had about 8 or 9 referendums in the past ten years on stuff, nobody bats an eyelid
      England has a referendum nobody wanted and nobody asked for except the Tories and mad Ukippers where they might as well have told Scotland not to bother voting as it wasn’t going to count anyway then the Yoons get all huffy because they changed the constitution of the British Isles from the last time we voted and we don’t like it

      So the most democratic party in the UK “The SNP” asks the people of Scotland what they’d like to do, the people think about it and say “Well we’d like a referendum on that thanks” and the Yoons blame the First Minister for being a democrat and fulfilling the wishes of the country

      They might as well just change the names of Westminster to Rome and Theresa May to Theresus Maius Caesar
      They know not what they do, but I’m not for forgiving the Arsholes

    40. Macart says:

      @galamcennalath

      Pretty much.

      A list of things the Scottish Government did not do.

      1. Promise to set up then fail to deliver the nearest thing to a federal solution possible
      2. Throw FFA and pretty much every other amendment they suggested during the Scotland bill debates in the bin
      3. Promise to write the permanence of the Scottish parliament into the UKs constitution and faill to deliver
      4. Promise to set up a constitutional convention to handle future devolution issues. Oh and fail to deliver
      5. Guarantee continued membership of the EU in return for a NO vote and fail to…etc.
      6. Ensure delivery of the order for 13 frigates to the Clyde
      7. Promise job security and indeed better job opportunities in return for a no vote and fail to… ditto
      8. Guarantee that as part of the UK our population would be protected from harm in times of economic hardship… Guess!
      9. Instigate the recent EU referendum, the Brexit result or the ensuing constitutional crisis caused by the conflicting and incompatible results of both recent referendums
      10. Run up a £1.6bn debt, crashed an economy or instigated austerity economics

      And for the removal of doubt? They also haven’t started any wars, renewed (at horrendous cost/overspend) the most appalling weapons system in existence, participated in rendition, graft, turned their parliament into an unaccountable, patronage ridden sewage pipe, or initiated a barbaric media assault against their own population.

      But we know who has.

      Other than that, we have have it on good authority that they are bad anyroads. 😉

    41. Macart says:

      Heh, point 10. £1.6tr debt. 🙂

    42. Anas Sarwar being mocked and laughed at by all at Holyrood,

      trying to sound like a tough guy but coming over as a gobby bufoon,

      the standard of MSP from the Scottish Labour Autonomous Party or `SLAP`is barley the level of a drunken pub argument,

      `SLAP` should get back under the stone where they belong.

    43. galamcennalath says:

      Macart says:

      “But we know who has.”

      Certainly do! Problem is there are NO voters who don’t know so this, so our job has to be education.

      Knowing that doesn’t make you a YES voter. Lots of NO voters will know all your point, but not give a damn. They are probably a lost cause.

      But if everyone has been exposed to the truth, enough will vote YES. Surely!?

      It will be exciting during IndyRef2 because the Yoons will always be in the back foot this time. Even with their allies in the media, it just isn’t credible that some of their front guys from last time could stand up and make some of the same claims which have since been refuted.

      Last time the didn’t try very hard to sell their Union, but next time it will be near impossible!

      And conversely, our side should be a bit more negative and attack the Union as having been proven bad for Scotland.

    44. Jack Murphy says:

      ben madigan said at 3:01 pm
      “@galamcennalath, Jack Murphy and others on BBC bias

      Hope you will enjoy this post, particularly the analysis of BBc and STV bias during indyref1 and Noam chomsky wiping the floor with Andrew Marr

      https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2016/09/20/the-true-story-of-and-media-bias/

      Thanks a lot for responding so quickly ben.
      The videos included in the item are also an eye-opener.
      Maybe those at BBC Scotland on inflated salaries can have a wee look during their tea break. 🙂

      The Telegraph today:- 40% inflated salaries at BBC.
      http://archive.is/NyRrE

    45. Petra says:

      I’ve just been trawling through this thread. So much to catch up with! AND I see that we’ve moved on now.

      @ Luigi says at 2:09 pm …. ”Apparently, Owen Smith has already conceded defeat. If this turns out so, there will be a lot of sour-faced red tories tomorrow. My heart bleeds. Stick that in yer pipe and smoke it, Mr Kinnock.”

      I wonder where that’ll leave Kezia Dugdale, Luigi? Not looking too good for her (anti-Corbyn), especially bleating on now about SLab being ‘autonomous’. How on earth, as one example, can you be autonomous when your branch office is being funded from London?

      ……….

      @ Robert Peffers says at 10:25 am …. ‘State Pension.’

      Thanks for taking the time to post that reply Robert. Very interesting indeed. Seems there would be a lot to ‘unravel’. Would Queenie and Co be up to it?

      ……….

      @ call me dave says at 10:10 am …. ”Express headline in paper shop: Ten years of SNP government is bad for your health. That’s us felt then.”

      SNP legal team should be suing that outfit.

      ……….

      @ Liz g says at 12:52 …. ”Wrote a great big detailed answer to you and it dissapeared. Probably just as well cause we were way off topic. Also in danger of making Petra sorry she asked about the land tax article.” …..

      Liz I’ve been trying to catch up and have just read your comments about the Land Tax. Thanks for highlighting some issues. It (LT) sounds too good to be true, however if it was to be considered I’m sure that there would be a number of ‘challenges’ to deal with such as the ‘cross over’ period and ensuring that people actually paid it. What I liked about it (the little we know of it) was it’s simplicity: More than anything that there are so many highly intelligent Scots working their butts off for the betterment of Scotland.

    46. Macart says:

      @galamcennalath

      Couldn’t agree more.

    47. liz g says:

      Petra if you’re still here.
      I agree it sounds so simple and fair I would like to see it explored farther.
      Even the concept that it’s Scotland’s land that ends up not only supporting her people,but supporting them well and indefinitely,is appealing.
      Also figuring out how the properties I mentioned and other’s like them fit this model could, at the very least go a long way to making who owns what and who contributes how much to the pot.
      Much more transparent.

    48. Petra says:

      Yeah wouldn’t that be wonderful Liz. Our land (tax), air (wind energy) and seas (wave / tidal energy) supporting us. And ‘transparency’ (who owns what, where) is appealing too.

      I would imagine that someone at the SG is at least considering it. If not the SNP …. surely the Greens.

    49. ross says:

      Will the UK govt allow indyref2 ?

    50. Fred says:

      @Ross, of course they will, how would the EU react to EU citizens being denied a poll to confirm their EU citizenship!

    51. ross says:

      In the absence of a mandate for indyref2, which our govt did not ask of the Scottish people,I don’t think that the UK govt will permit a referendum, and the SNP leadership must know this. And the EU will do nothing, as they will not get involved in the internal affairs of a major member state

    52. Fred says:

      Ross, a major member state which has voted not to be a member, Scotland voted to stay in the club! Indy2 will go ahead whether Theresa approves it or no. Any attempt by Theresa to block the process will only serve to boost the Aye vote therefore bring it on!

    53. ross says:

      A member state that has voted to leave the EU is still a member until it actually leaves. The EU will not back Scotland over the UK. Scotland has not voted for Scotland to stay in the club. It will be interesting to watch the Scottish govt ponder on Wether to proceed with a further referendum that has no approval from Westminster.

    54. Fred says:

      Ross, you/we have no idea what the EU reaction will be, time will tell. Meantime try & work on your timorous outlook. Robert the Bruce might have been a fly-man but was never timorous! 🙂

    55. Smallaxe says:

      Fred:
      Are you still on here?

      Peace Always

    56. Smallaxe says:

      Fred:
      Are you still on here?

    57. ross says:

      Not being timorous Fred. Analytical. And I would say we do have an idea what the EU reaction will be. The EU is not the friend of Scotland that some wish it to be

    58. Fred says:

      @ Smallaxe, just popped in to see if you’re aboot my son!

      Anent, Ross & the EU, I’m sure the likes of Jim Sillars would agree with you kid but he,d cause a row in an empty hoose!

    59. ross says:

      Attack Sillars’ arguments, rather than attack Sillars’ alleged personality

    60. Fred says:

      Been attacking Sillars arguments since you were probably at the school.

    61. Smallaxe says:

      Fred the Unhappy 11% @6:24

      Peace Always my friend

    62. Smallaxe says:

      Fred let me know if you have been there

      Peace Always



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