Crosstown traffic
For our final instalment of poll data, we’re going to look at two groups of results that at first don’t appear to be connected, but which are more linked than you might imagine.
We’ll do the housekeeping first, to build the tension a bit. No skipping ahead.
There’s no real way of measuring the reach of the mainstream media against that of websites like this one. Sometimes for fun we compare our readership figures with newspaper sales figures, but that’s apples against oranges. Equally, though, when newspapers give out their online reach stats they’re completely meaningless in terms of telling you whether anyone’s actually reading their politics coverage, rather than just browsing the football scores and lonely-hearts ads.
So we thought we’d ask how often people used newspaper sites, campaign sites and unofficial ones like Wings Over Scotland, Newsnet Scotland, Bella Caledonia and National Collective specifically for the purposes of finding out about, or discussing, independence/the referendum. To keep it short, we’ve squished the results together.
————————————————————————————————
USE OF MEDIA OUTLETS IN CONNECTION WITH INDEPENDENCE
(Regularly or occasionally)
Official campaign websites (Yes Scotland, Better Together): 26
Free-to-access commercial media sites (Daily Record, Scotsman, BBC etc): 47
Pay-to-access commercial media sites (The Sun, Herald, Times etc): 9
Other websites and blogs: 37
Twitter: 21
Facebook: 39
————————————————————————————————
Now that’s pretty interesting. “Unofficial” sources like ourselves are already being used almost as much as the mainstream media (and MORE than either paywalled media or official campaign sites). Newspapers are generally held to be in an irreversible decline, which although it refers chiefly to print sales also has an effect on how much money they can invest online, whereas social media is very much on the up. So that gap will continue to narrow, then close, and before too long will reverse.
More to the point, social media is massively dominated by pro-independence voices. So those figures can only be good news for Yes supporters.
Do we have any evidence backing that up? As it happens, we do.
————————————————————————————————
The official campaigns have now been running for roughly 15 months. Regardless of whether your voting intention has actually changed or not, how would you describe your feelings now compared to 15 months ago?
Much more in favour of independence: 18
Slightly more in favour of independence: 12
Unchanged: 55
Slightly more against independence: 6
Much more against independence: 9
————————————————————————————————
Those are interesting numbers for a couple of reasons. Firstly, they show us that twice as many people (30%) now feel more favourable towards independence (to at least some degree) than have moved the other way (15%).
But secondly, they show that the constant media narrative of “nothing much has changed for years” just isn’t true. Fully 45% of Scots have had their feelings altered one way or the other by the last year and a quarter’s campaigning (60% of them by a large amount), and up until now we’ve only been in the “phoney war”.
We’ve said for a long time now that people won’t really start paying attention until late spring next year, probably after the European elections. And as pro-independence campaigners never tire of saying, we haven’t even had the white paper yet. If 45% of people have already been open to some level of persuasion, it’s really all to play for.
As for which direction it’s going to play in, here’s the last question we asked.
————————————————————————————————
What is your opinion regarding the following statement?
“The Scottish people would make a success of an independent Scotland.”
Agree: 55
Disagree: 30
Don’t know: 15
————————————————————————————————
At first glance, that answer is a disappointing display of the Scottish Cringe. 30% of Scots think their own countrymen and women couldn’t make a go of an independent state – something that almost every other nation on Earth, including those vastly less well blessed than Scotland, has managed fine.
8% of gloomy SNP voters, 32% of Labour supporters, 42% of Lib Dems and a truly sickening 76% of Conservatives think Scotland is too wee, poor and stupid to thrive on its own, despite even the official No campaign regularly insisting the opposite. (Just 8% of Tories agreed with the proposition.)
But here comes the science bit.
Because this poll started by asking the referendum question directly, we were able to cross-reference it against all the other questions. The “undecided” column puts an intriguing slant on pretty much every question (as you’ll see when the full tables are released shortly), but it comes into play most extraordinarily on this one.
Here’s how the responses to the question above broke down by referendum intention.
YES VOTERS
Agree 96 Disagree 3 Don’t know 1
NO VOTERS
Agree 17 Disagree 62 Don’t know 21
UNDECIDED VOTERS
Agree 68 Disagree 3 Don’t know 29
Look at those numbers again. And again, and then a couple more times, because the story they tell is a spectacular and uplifting one for anyone in the Yes camp.
People who vote No are doing so because, overwhelmingly, they think Scotland simply doesn’t have what it takes to be independent. The people who haven’t made their mind up yet, by an absolutely crushing margin, think it does. It’s clear which way they’re leaning, if only they can have their questions answered.
Among the undecideds, 36% are more in favour of independence than they were a year ago, compared to just 10% who’re more against. 42% of them would like Scotland to be an independent country if everything else was equal, compared to just 20% who’d rather remain in the UK.
They care more than either Yes or No voters about the economy and the future of their children. They don’t give a monkey’s about the UK’s international status and influence. (It’s their second-lowest factor, above only “Emotional reasons”.)
These are the people on whom the referendum will swing, and they really, really want to swing towards independence. The Yes camp has 11 months to make their dreams come true. Those 11 months start here.
Good stuff
I have always known that most Scots would like to vote YES. This confrims it.
O/T
We need an equivalent of “Wings” for our young folk and their PCs,smart phones and all the other stuff that I don’t understand. They conduct conversation electronically on an almost continuous basis. I’ll happily pay towards setting up something that talks to them
“Join us again later, when you’ll hear Nurse Piggy say “Now THAT’S some good news for the Yes campaign.””
You’re right, Nurse Piggy!
Interesting results. It would appear project fear isn’t working… and people are there to be convinced. Roll on the white paper. I just hope people read it not the Dail Mail’s interpretation of it.
Dear Yes Campaign…listen to THIS MAN!!
Brilliant work Rev…now just tell us when that kitty is open for the next one!
Wow
I wasn’t sure about the white paper being a success cos I thought not too many people would wade their way through it.
But going by the reasons given by the no people just maybe it will be a game-changer.
Rev, Now that’s a birthday present..
Much appreciated..
Thank you, Rev, for this post. Since I first discovered Wings, I’ve believed we have a chance. Now I know it.
Oh and BTW happy birthday and brilliant work. Donation sent.
All uplifting stuff, Rev – thanks. Got me all fired up for my canvassing in Embra today … and if I hadn’t completely misread the meeting point’s details and turned up at the wrong time I would’ve done some!
Ah, you saved the best till last Stu. Plenty work to be done and the don’t knows won’t jump till much further down the line I reckon but it does sound like they are leaning much more to the positive side.
It’s there to be won and the direction of travel has been in the direction of Yes. The undecideds seem to want to say Yes.
The White Paper is going to face a sh1t storm of negativity by the combined MSM bitter together campaign. It is a critical document and even if it is the best thing ever written in Scotland’s history it will be subjected to widespread questioning and even ridicule.
I think this may test the resolve of some Yes supporters. We have to expect this and stick with it.
Now if you’ld have broken that down by proud Scots and the ordinary ones we would have had something to get our teeth into! 🙂
There is something seriously amiss with the Scottish Tory party. It should be the home of those who think people should stand on their own two feet and make their own way in the world and yet 76% feel that they are too poor, too wee and too stupid to do so?
Would their answer have changed if the question had been prefaced by – Given that the Scottish Tory party will be the first Government in an iScotland, -? I really see no sign that Scottish Tories have put any thought into their response to the referendum and that is worrying.
Wow !
So, the websites are having an impact – more so than the MSM like to admit but thats brilliant. Hopefully we’ll get to a point of ‘critical mass’ (probably not the best term to use) and the websites will go ballistic with new viewers.
That last section is truly inspiring – the message is getting out there and people are showing definite signs of leaning towards a Yes.
The negative message from the unionists just isn’t working,despite the co-operation of 90% of the media.
The more they ramp up the crap, the more people are turning away from them.
I reckon you’ve uncovered some really valuable data here, Stu. Great stuff.
Interesting to see that Twitter is the second-least used way of getting information. Just goes to show that all those Twitterstorms that happen every now and again are largely being completely ignored the public. Facebook would appear to be where it’s at!
Yes thanks to the Rev Stu’s excellent explanation of all the poll data and what it means. Today has to all intense purposes been a great day for the YES in 2014 brigade. Would also like to add happy birthday to Wings Over Scotland.
I love that 3% of Yes voters think we are going to make a cock of it!
“We’re a’ doomed ah tell ye, but ah’m still votin’ fur it”
A nice finish. Great stuff.
Thanks for all the hard work.
I would have difficulty in answering the question on how my feelings have changed. I was 100% for indy at the start, but all this negative bile from the No camp has made me want it even more. Am I unchanged, or more in favour? How can you be more than 100%?
Sorry to go O/T
Did anyone archive the Ian McWhirter article from the Herald ? I’ve used up my three free stories and I’d be interested to have a gander. Apparently it’s very good.
Any links ?
What an absolute blinder! That’s what we’re looking for! Get in!
It confirms my feelings that the majority of the voters in the main want to be convinced to support a yes vote. We need to match the heart and the head in the next 11 months.
@Doug Daniel
But Twitter is 21%. That’s far from worthless when all’s said and done. I’ve often thought that we Twitter cybernats were largely talking to each other, but the figure suggests that’s not the case.
Facebook – Rev Stu maybe needs to change the text when you hover over the button on this site?
Tremendous amount of work must have gone into that. I don’t know how anyone could get any sleep after doing all that. Numbers, stats and arguments must have been whirling away.
Brilliant information! Your crowd funding efforts are worth every red cent. Whilst your work is thorough and informative, let’s take a moment to *sigh* that our pathetic “official” media (print, on-line & televised) has produced squat in comparison.
tartanfever
Is it this one which is on his own blog?
http://iainmacwhirter.wordpress.com/2013/10/27/sunday-herald-column-labour-the-first-casualty-of-grangemouth-debacle/
Facebook is far better for the picture messages as people don’t have a choice whether they see it or not. It’s on their screen. With twitter you actually have to click the tweet in order to see it.
Given that women are less likely to vote yes than men I think a team of women should set up a group that specifically targets the women of Scotland. Get the girls on side and you’re all set for a yes vote.
Marcia – you star – many thanks.
I hadn’t visited his blog page for ages, it hardly seemed to be updated and I gave up on it.
A very detailed and clever polling analysis, Rev. Excellent stuff. Based on these results, BT should be at least slightly concerned, but they are not.
They are completely bricking it!
Well done Rev.!
I love a surprise ending.
This is one poll that wont be forgotten in a hurry.
Pure dead brilliant
The sting in the tail. So many soft no’s.
It’s there for the taking.
Excellent work Rev.
I am certain that the majority of no votes will be as a result of not having information. That was certainly my sons experience in the Aberdeenshire schools vote. Many f his friends voted no simply because they didn’t have a clue. We’ve a lot to do to get the info out there but we do have the right info.
handclapping at 6.22
I’ve heard it said that that type of Tory migrated to the SNP twenty years ago. There might be some truth in that.
Those that are left are a sorry bunch. At the Dunoon “Better Together” launch when young man called David Barton opined that the Romans left Scotland because they has decided Scotland was “useless” the blue rinsed and crinkly element in the audience actually applauded him.
Fantastic Rev Stu! That was worth waiting for. Told you at the rally that you’d helped me to see thru the cr*p and I’m a very cautious person, so keep up the good work, you’re a star!
So far, I`ve had mixed feelings about the poll results, but this latest part has certainly raised my spirits again.
It`s a good feeling.
If Facebook is that influential we should be crowdfunding some push adverts for Wings. Perhaps we could reach more young people that way.
McWhirter’s piece is also available on his own blog, which has recently moved to a wordpress host. ah, I see Marcia beat me to it
Another wee poll, and I mean wee, has Yes 47%, No 40% – it’s on a footie fans forum, but only 32votes cast….. Still, a lead is a lead….
Stu, that’s a stonking piece of work, and very heartening. Any word from Prof Curtice yet, or is he waiting onthe full tables before unleashing his wisdom?
Prof Curtice’s first take on our poll:
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/10/new-panelbase-poll-different-commissioner-same-result/
Andrew Morton says:
27 October, 2013 at 6:51 pm
If Facebook is that influential we should be crowdfunding some push adverts for Wings. Perhaps we could reach more young people that way.
Great idea and there’s software available that’ll ensure these ads only appear to active members of particular groups rather than just to anyone. This seriously reduces the cost per click. Happy to help in any way.
Excellent poll, very interesting results, some very heartening indeed, thanks Rev. Stu, and many happy returns, by the way.
Now, let’s get the next poll moving, I’ve some money just itching to be burnt on a Wings crowd-funded poll, with the added advantage of media coverage, BBC Scotland talked extensively about this poll, and WoS, this morning.
🙂
Was in touch through twitter with a Welshman he was complaining about distorted
coverage by BBC Wales , now there’s a coincidence !
Ladies, Gents, take a look out of your windows, take in the view of our beautiful wee country..
…and get ready for independence!
‘- here comes the science bit.’
Love it 🙂
Great stuff Stuart. And thanks for all the detail and time spent on analysing and presenting the data.
Dave McEwan Hill
“David Barton opined that the Romans left Scotland because they has decided Scotland was “useless”.
I suggest his history teachers hang their heads in shame if that was his understanding of Scottish history, (but again we are talking about DGS sadly). Believe he wanted to enlist in the Army also; perhaps he should research Rome’s campaigns and success in southern Caledonia just a wee bit more, before he opines to any military strategists at Sandhurst or he may well be laughed all the way back North. (The boy was a bit of a clown playing to a crowd).
Rev- congratulations on what appears to be an exceptionally well laid out poll, gathering meaningful findings. It has so much more gravitas than the first one.
It’s important that people hear that the tide is turning – once real momentum builds I’m sure many undecideds will feel more confident about joining YES.
Thanks Rev Stu for all your hard work on this, very interesting statistics, and conclusions
BTW, Anyone think this might be a sign 😉
Today’s Torygraph:
Tower of London upgrades security after fox kills two ravens
‘the ravens whose presence – legend has it – prevents the kingdom collapsing’
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/theroyalfamily/10407729/Tower-of-London-upgrades-security-after-fox-kills-two-ravens.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
This is worth it’s weight in gold Rev thank you!
Great work with this poll –
Still worry about the 8% gap (really dont understand scots voters at all : really appear quite thick).
Big query > the Scotsman & BBC figures (how the hell ?)
Keep us up to date with MSM pick – up
While a No vote doesn’t bear thinking about, I do wonder if that happens whether there will ever be another opportunity for independence. We have a Tory-led government introducing quite extreme social policies that question the very existence of the wider UK welfare state. There is no stand-out Westminster political leader or personality.
What concerns me most is the apparent acceptance of many Scottish New Labour supporters who seem content to run council budgets dictated by Tory governments. They almost seem to thrive in the “servant” relationship – the powerless trendy, edgy lefties that talk a good game.
Straight question down to a single digit lead and numbers supporting all to play for amongst the undecided.
GAME ON! 🙂
@Kininvie;
But what’s he saying?
300+ years of union has managed to retain a 5% swing and the undecideds, who in relatively vast numbers require a menial amount of info on how Scotland could manage financially?
Brilliant.
Rev, excellent set of questions you asked, and great analysis. Lots of encouraging info here, many thanks for all your hard work. Hope you’re enjoying your birthday as much as your readers are enjoying reading your work.
The undecideds want to be convinced-its up to everyone who believes in an independent Scotland to convince them! Let’s get the job done.
I’ll wager that that the half of Scot’s (should there be an apostrophe there?) still fixated with the union, when (not if) they face a new opportunity in an independent Scotland will be more or less very accepting of the circumstances they find themselves in. For it is obvious that these chaps and chapetts are all for being told others are the ones with the say, not them.
However, it would be a dream come true if we all could muster the solidarity to say Yes right now…,
Good coverage / spread on ‘YES Scotland’ website Rev –
Ach Rev this is pure magic. Thank you so much, feeling elated! Agree with Dave McEwan Hill away up at the top there it would be brilliant to have something for the youngsters to get their teeth into. Love the photo it’s a great example!
Thanks Rev, some great and valuable data there. I always believed that the majority of people in Scotland want independence, they just need to be sold on the advantages of it… over to you YES campaign.
When the punters go into that booth and look at what they are being asked, are they going to put a NO against their country, even if they though they were as they entered the polling station
Well done Rev and that’s some story from McWhirter
Mr Reverend you are spoiling us with all these interesting poll statistics.
I would imagine Prof Curtice is intrigued by the results…..even if OBE is spitting tacks
Tartanfever
Go to settings and remove the Herald Cookies.
Good work Stu, lots to take in, Happy Birthday.
O/T
Here’s an interesting take on the Grangemouth carry on
http://marksimonfrankland.blogspot.co.uk/
tornface – of course, thanks for the reminder. (What a dimwit I am)
Brilliant work Rev Stu – applaud all the time and effort put into this latest poll.
A small donation on its way for continuously giving us the lift we all badly need – Cheers
Talking of the ravens at the tower of London. Those will be the ones that have their wings clipped to stop them flying away. (A typical unionist ploy)
We have a set of fully functioning Wings right here and they soar above Scottish politics.
Good on you Rev. Stu that must have been hard work putting all of that together. Scotland owes you big style!
Thanks for that Stu, that must have been some shift you put in. I think we can all take great comfort from the findings as a whole. An 8 point headline lead for No is not important at all given the timescale to the referendum. It is the trend and the underlying nuances of the poll which are important at this stage and that is why your poll is so devastating to the unionist cause. If I were a unionist (thank you someone!) I would be very concerned by the data and the way the trend is developing. Thanks again and enjoy any celebrations of your birthday you have left. Hail Alba.
I’ve always been amazed by the numbers of Irish and Scots claimed in various ‘diaspora’ accounts – you hear numbers like 50 or 60 million Americans claiming direct Irish ancestry. I don’t know what the figures for Scots are like.
But these people who left – be it via Clearances, exportation, cheap sailings to Australia, staying-put after World Cups etc – must be hugely influential. Do we know anything at all about how they feel? I’m not suggesting that they’d all want to come back, but they surely have opinions on it all – how many of them believe we’re better off staying in the UK?
glad i got my money on a yes vote last week. odds should start tumbling with poll results like these in the coming months
Remember where the undecideds went in 1997. Undecided is really ‘want to vote yes but not sure yet’. Hence the huge uptick in the Yes Yes vote in the final fortnight in 1997. http://www.scottishaffairs.org/onlinepub/sa/mccrone_1997-98polls.html
@Baheid;
Like it. But here’s a slightly modified version;
PetroChina buy into Grangemouth in 2011 which apparently sealed the plants future for decades. The plant starts to show reducing profits (not actual losses) due to an increase in Asian and Far East developement in the sector.
The independence referendum highlights the requisite of Grangemouth to the Scottish economy and the necessity of the UK gov to prove it’s merit’s to the Scottish people. Ineos uses this to acquire a deal – not for the underwritten loan for the new ethane terminal, but for the fracking promise in the Scottish green belt, agreed not only by Westminster, but by the Scottish government as well (if the the rest of the world goes fracking, energy prices will require any western country with the ability to frack to comply).
The wages/pensions debacle seems meaningless in the profit/loss argument. Saving 10% – 20% of the proposed losses changes nothing. Grangemouth doesn’t become profitable by shaving a tiny sliver off the problem.
No wonder the NO campaign are shiting themselves. They, as well as the YES campaign will continually carry out private polling and will be, I’m sure aware of voter feelings, intentions etc.
Cameron has stated he wants a decisive No vote. The reality is he NEEDS a decisive no vote, bearing in mind they have no intention of devolving tax powers. Perhaps the worst result for NO would be a very slim NO vote within 5%. At least if it’s YES the pressure would be off and it would leave them to negotiate the best deal they can get.
Fantastic analysis Stu, money well spent thanks. I look forward to reading the Hootsmans analysis in the morning.
Thank you for all the hard work Rev, also thanks to all those who funded this poll.
I wish I could say that I was delighted as the rest of you appear to be about this latest poll. Are we forgetting about Dunfermline? :15,000 voting for a combination of coalition, red tories and English fascist parties versus 7000 for the SNP despite the smears and downright lies. What about Govan?: right there in Nicola Sturgeon’s and Sarwar’s backgreen Labour get back in. And don’t forget the Glasgow local election failure of last year. Yeah I know that there is invariably a swing against incumbent ruling party midterm etc. and that Dunfermline would still not be a big enough swing to destroy the SNP majority…but. This latest poll and the above results show that a large intransigent section of Scottish people are too stupid and too feart and too small-minded to imagine anything better. Grangemouth is too painful to contemplate…but the conclusion is clear: stay in the Union and you can forget well paid jobs with security and expect more robber barons dicating and bullying Scottish workforces, indeed ‘a boot stamping on a human face forever’. But how many people will see that? Anecdotally, almost nobody under 40 seems to understand what International Capitalism really represents. Talk to Maggie’s children and they have self-limiting belief in the right of ‘market forces’ to determine their lives. Add in a lack of belief in positive ‘Scottishness’ as being a plus in the wider world and I’m afraid that you have the consequence of unengaged and uninspired and even hostile non- or no voters. And it is particularly noticeable among the youth e.g Aberdeenshire schools. I know this is my experience, because I am prepared to engage people (including strangers) in the debate and the prevalence of ignorance and low self-regard as Scots is really appalling. How did this happen? Why the self-loathing? Why are so many young people telling me that they can’t find the correct information despite being so savvy with social media?
To ignore the role of the BBC and the msm is criminal and strategically stupid, and I will say it again that unless the YES campaign and the SG go on the offensive directly at the blatant lies and propaganda being force fed to the Scottish public , this campaign will fail, no matter how many well thought out and deeply felt White papers are presented. The personality based yah boo invective must be challenged both in the media and within the Scottish parliament..Cameron gets slated for calling Milliband a ‘conman’, well what about the disgraceful name calling by Labour at AS? Unless this corrosive drip drip of poisonous lies which is causing deep doubts in the general Scottish electorate themselves about their very own self-worth to govern is challenged, then I will remain pessimistic that the Yes vote can be achieved.
Completely O/T but after three threads and however many posts I’m sure the Rev will forgive –
‘Events dear boy,events.’ Whoever said that…
Grangemouth still has a huge way to run – the e-mail documentation released already by Ineos will show that Unite ( in the shape of the union official on site) attempted to fix the selection process contrary to law and to Labour party rules and that the Labour Party failed to properly investigate.
Meanwhile Jo Lamont attempts to deny what’s on record – “I never said the words ‘ …something for nothing…'”. This is a statement similar to Alistair Darling’s “I have never said Scotland could never be a successful country.”
So 1 in 3 Scots don’t have the slightest bit of confidence in themselves – yet another union dividend..I’m sure if you asked the Irish, Icelanders or Greeks if they believe they have the ability to get themselves out of the tough situation they are all in, you’d be told to piss off for your cheek. But this lack of confidence is not going to disappear overnight or even post White paper.
It may sound extreme or very shallow, but I honestly think Scots need to be told by folk outside Scotland that they can do it. A one minute TV broadcast in the run-up to the referendum showing actors, sports stars, musicians simply saying Scotland – You can do it, will have much more of an impact than Salmond telling them that they can, or even during the Commonwealth games asking the athletes what their views are on Indy – imagine Usain Bolt saying Scotland you can do it – it would have a big impact, especially on the young voters (it shouldn’t of-course, but it would!)
So 1 in 3 Scots don’t have the slightest bit of confidence in themselves
No. They’re ‘British’, either wholly or strongly in identity. They can’t help but answer that way because they don’t want Britain to end.
And so – my conclusions:
1) For an initative that was crowd-funded inside 72 hours, this poll has produced more incisive questions and more interesting data than anything seen in the MSM to date.
2) We may all have funded it, but without Stu’s work on it, and comments on it, it’s value would have been a fraction of what it is.
3) There’s a mix of uncomfortable reading and optimistic reading. The results focus the mind – make us stop dreaming and wake up to what we need to do.
4) It’s quite clear that to drive the Yes vote we need to be less idealistic in our pronouncements about Scotland’s future, and much more practical about what it means to individuals and families.
5) We need to find better ways of reaching out to the young. We have quite obviously failed to do this so far.
6) We need to take more account of the Scottish people’s conservatism. We need to embrace our inner Daily Mail reader and find the reason for him/her to vote Yes.
7) We need, mentally, to separate our drive to get people to vote Yes from all our other political or ideological stances.
8) We have a chance, and a good chance. Everything, but everything, depends on normalising Yes, so those undecideds come to feel they are part of a movement.
Britain won’t end. Education, Health and our legal system are already ‘independent’. There is nothing that will actually change other than the taxation process which IMHO in many ways will be no different from me being billed from Argyll and Bute Council for council tax when previously it was done by Dumbarton District. It will be seamless and painless.
I mean, what exactly do these people think will happen upon independence…what will ‘break’ ?
fantastic work Rev.. I said that if the resukts wern’t positive I’d be off to the pub. I went anywwy but had some cracking reading.
just say the word and i’ll crack open the moth ridden wallet again.. oh, hope you had loads of cake 🙂
Like Lochside I have severe reservations over this poll.
From the age of 12 onwards kids virtually live on their phones/ipads/laptops. They are not getting their information from the TV or the MSM. Yet despite this they seem to be so out of touch and so misinformed with what is going in Scotland.
If I use experience of the kids I work with, I’d say that 90% of their waking day is spent on face book. Either catching up with friends or posting updates to friends.
If anything kids are living in a cocoon free from all socio-political goings on. If YES which to ‘connect’ with them they must make a massive concerted effort to somehow break through to them on face book.
As for the rest of the population in the don’t know camp, there is hope of persuading them to vote YES. The best hope it seems is to ‘promise’ them money. Sad to say but the whole referendum hinges on convincing three orfour hundred thousand Scots that they’ll be a couple of hundred quid better off if they vote YES.
I pray to God that the YES campaign has something still in their bag of tricks to pull out closer to the date. It’s gonna have to be something quite amazing to have any effect.
Superb piece of work and brilliant analysis.
Thank you for the time and effort you put into this.
Pro loco
So let me get the straight
Lamont stated clearly on an press conference in September , demanding an end to ‘something for nothing‘ culture. Video freely available on the internet http://news.stv.tv/politics/191807-labour-leader-johann-lamont-demands-end-to-something-for-nothing-culture/
Today Lamont denies during a TV interview on the BBC that she never stated that
Either she is stupid or she thinks we all are.
In the recent by-election Labour issued a leaflet that stated that ‘Labour Froze Council Tax First – We continue to support a freeze
But Today, less than a week from the By-election, Lamont states on the same interview today that she wants to scrap the Council tax Freeze
Again, either she is stupid or she thinks we all are.
To reach young folk we have to be upfront and personal. Every known YES supporter among the 16 to 18 group should be asked to invite say six of his or her fellow students to a house meeting addressed by a YES ambassador trained to engage specifically with young folk.
This should be an opportunity for questions to be asked by the young people. Meetings should be no more than an hour long. Ambassadors should provide contact details so that the young people are encouraged to contact the ambassador agendas they have a questioner concern.
@Keef- My daughter – who is a yes natch after listening to me ad infinitum, has informed various friends thro FB about issues they were misinformed about. eg some of them thought Scotland couldn’t produce enough energy to keep the lights on.
And also has sent them to WOS and other sites.
So if any of us know young people perhaps we could ask them to update their pals.
Marcia 6:33 pm
Thanks Marcia this is a excellent piece by Ian mcwhirter. Also was directed onto blog- weegingerdug. very we’ll written and really funny. Recomend
Looks like somebody at BBC Scotland will be in trouble on Monday when the bosses read this http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24693329
Ms Lamont said the freeze in the cost of the council tax, which has been in place since 2007 and looks set to continue until 2017, was underfunded by government and had hit local services.
She said: “I want a discussion not where the parties get dividing lines between each other but come together and address the challenge of how do you properly build a confidence in the way you raise taxes locally?”
A spokesman for First Minister Alex Salmond said: “This is a massive own goal by Johann Lamont.
“Voters will be shocked by her announcement that Labour would scrap the council tax freeze.
“A poll published on Sunday showed the SNP government’s council tax freeze is backed by 82% of voters, with only 9% opposed.
“75% of Labour’s own voters back the freeze.
“This proves how out of touch with ordinary people Ms Lamont is.”
@Edward – unfortunately the complicit MSM will let them away with it.
@ edward
exactamundo!
My son has 76 friends on FB who support Yes Scotland’s FB page and only 20 who like Better Together. he is twenty and an ardent yes supporter, so the picture is not entirely bleak
Well done Liz. The Rev has given all of us much food for thought. He has also highlighted the main areas that require ‘attention’.
The overall impression though is that with just a little more effort; YES will succeed. The most heartening impression I get from these results is that the No campaign is having little or no effect on voter intentions. The biggest hurdle or positive (depending on how you choose to look at it) is correcting the misinformed. Time after time it has been shown that once even the most ‘dis-connected’ voter learns the facts; they invariably agree that YES is the only way forward.
Keef & lochside, why the doom laden attitudes? this poll shows an improvement on how things were at the start of campaigning and that after propaganda that actually started before 1707, and has continued with project fear, we have the best part of a year to go, we have still much to add to the arguments and will do so, what we have here has come after much solid slog contacting the people of this country direct and by bypassing the MSN, and it is working.
Nobody in any of these posts is taking anything for granted, all we have taken is
encouragement, and justified encouragement at that, justified because it backs up things that have been reported in posts to this site, well attended YES meeting, good reactions from members of the public, including not only, undecideds but some who were going to vote NO being converted, so cheer up!
Jim. I think you mistook me pointing out the facts of kid’s face book habits and their general state of ignorance so me being pessimistic on the way the campaign is going. Far from it. I’m merely pointing out a huge ‘hole’ that needs to be addressed.
I’m happy with the things are going to date. But the situation with kids under 24 is a real concern and if you are happy with that situation that’s fine by me.
@edward
@saporian
@liz
Jo Lamont denied her own words under the mildest of pressure in an attempt to stand up the latest ‘thinking’ by Prof Arthur Midwinter. Part of her commission to investigate the ‘something for nothing’ culture developed by the Labour party and claimed as the Labour Party’s own in the infamous Dunfermline hustings leaflet.
This is as nothing compared to the UK mainstream media interest in Unite’s finagling of Eric Joyce’s seat succession. She is supposed to be in charge! Milliband is going to have to ask her to resign I think.
Can’t help the ‘Better Together’ platform I would have thought.
I would have thought that given BBC Scotland this morning gave publicity to BellaCaledonia, Newsnet Scotland and the unashamedly pro-independence Wings Over Scotland surely it then becomes more difficult for them to ignore the blatant lies of Johann Lamont when these sites are all highlighting her economy with the truth. SNP.org also ran with it as a headline.
Though to be honest I’d hate to lose her from the Yes Campaign 😉
Dennis Canavan at Alloa town Hall:
Keef, No offence intended, I do however thing that there is time to start aiming at particular groups, I also think that at times we are a bit to hasty in dismissing younger folk and what they are aware of and equating that with what they think is most important at any one time, granted it may be difficult at times to get some of them to focus on what we would like them to, but I still have hopes for them when we do get them focussed, as I believe we can.
Talking of swings. I have been on the pessimistic side of the YES campaign since the Scottish Government decided to hold the referendum. I thought it might be one, even two SNP led Scottish Governments too soon. However, in recent months I must admit I am becoming much more optimistic. I hear what lochside and keef are saying, however I am listening to the evidence of my own ears, absorbing the underlying data of this poll and others and looking at the trends and I have to admit, I really do think it is wide open. An eight point lead for No this far out from the referendum date is well within reach of being overtaken.
I also have to say that as a retired teacher, I am not overly concerned by the apparent apathy/potential No voter trend, within our young people. Youngsters tend to go with what the elders in a family think. I am quite confident that as the information filters through, more and more folk will swing to YES, young people included. The trend is most definitely towards YES.
Incidentially, does anyone on here know if the White Paper gets sent to every home in Scotland? Did the White Paper for the 1997 Devolution Referendum get sent to every household?
On Lamont’s comments today: she has just completely done herself, and her Unionist cronies in SLAB, in. There is no way Lamont can get away with trying to claim she did not say the “something for nothing” phrase. Lamont is going to get taken apart by Salmond at FMQs this week. I see SLAB have removed the speech from their internet page. This is the worst attempt at rewriting political history that I can remember in a long time. SLAB “Truth Team” where are you? 😀 😀 What a shambles…
SLAB’s ‘Truth Team’ best brush-up on how to do it properly.
Here is Master Brassneck himself –
Jim Mitchell: You may think I’m doom-laden, but I’m simply pointing out reality. I’ve been on both Yes marches in Edinburgh and attended a local YES gathering, but what I’m presented by is a predominantly middle-aged and middle class movement. I have not witnessed mass youth or working class mobilisation at any of these events. I’ve spoken to many young 20 something graduates working in call centres etc. and they are woefully ignorant of who they represent, and how little they count as Scots within the UK Londoncentric political-economic industrial complex, but also what the opportunities for real change are available for their future.
Look at the voting patterns I’ve quoted and tell me that the East End of Glasgow and the Central Belt are likely big Yes territory at the moment. I’m pointing out that the inertia and ignorance must be challenged at the macro level of the BBC and msm by the SG and Yes Campaign. Of course grass root YES mobilisation must continue and may yet swing sufficient votes. But to increase the positive zeitgeist required to move to a winning Yes vote, a cognisance of a requirement for outspoken and challenging resistance of the forces of Fear and Self Loathing by the Unionist Establishment and their mouthpieces must be a priority for the planners of the pro-Indy campaign.
Outstanding work overall Rev. Mildly pleased I shoved at least part of that 30k your way to keep you active 😉
Muttley, the exec summary of the WP should go to all homes. I’m pretty confident it will, although the money could obviously be better spent on issues of real concern to Scots which have nothing to do with Salmond’s constitutional obsession 😉
Great information contained here Rev, well done on all counts. before I forget and unaware if its been mentioned elsewhere but, for the next poll it would be good to know how many people are planning voting by post at the referendum.
I know a lot of concerns have been raised about this.
Also keep encouraging everyone to make Yes more visual, had my beanie on the last fortnight and getting a few looks, most positive/inquisitive. I find the Pin badges too wee to be noticed.
Finally, enjoy the last half hour or so of your birthday.
P.S Any thoughts on a protest at the Scottish Baftas to highlight the medias continued Ostrich like behaviour regarding our future?
Anyone?
Here is Master Brassneck himself (getting to the detail in order to get to the honest truth):
@Rev Stu on WoS
Jings. She really did say that the SNP lost Donside too. I think we missed that one! It somehow gets worse for SLAB. 😀 Why did Lamont leave her bunker? 😀
If Johann Lamont is concerned that her meaning has been misrepresented, why has she deleted the speech from the Scottish Labour website? Who are you going to call (to the tune of Ghostbusters)? SLAB Truth Team?! 😀
So, it’s been my day off. Did Johann REALLY go on TV and flatly deny saying something everyone on Scotland saw her saying?
Yes! 😀 😀
Hi Rev – I’m not on twitter but Scot goes Pop and Peter Bell have mentioned it – that is the only 2 I’ve looked at so far
Thank you Saporian (at 10.20)- I read the BBC story you linked to and it really does quote Johann Lamont as saying
“I want a discussion not where the parties get dividing lines between each other but come together and address the challenge of how do you properly build a confidence in the way you raise taxes locally?”
Which she really did say on the Politics Show today. I thought it was utterly incoherent when I heard it this morning. Now, thanks to the BBC, I can read Ms. Lamont’s words- and they are still utterly incoherent.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-24693329
You want the youth vote? Tell them their education and regional sports teams will be taken away. They respond to fear. Plus it has a ring of truth to it. Sepp blatter hasnt quite confirmed it, but its not far away. MAKE SCOTLAND A COUNTRY,NOT A REGION.
Sunday politics show BBC: Starts 38mins in. Grangemouth & Unions.Canavan & Cochrane 43 mins . Lamont 54mins Dunfermline & Grangemouth. http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b03dt1zp/Sunday_Politics_Scotland_27_10_2013/
It would be good to hear how others share information. I go on Facebook, raising awareness of alternative news sources – sharing articles.
I bought a cup with “I’d rather be independent” printed on it and posted a photo of it on FB, telling my friends I had bought it from a local businessman with an English accent, who was ex-forces and he had had them printed because he thought they would be popular, then he told me why he was going to vote yes, he even recommended some books to me about independence. I thought it was great to point out it isn’t country of birth or background that determines how people will vote – cuts through the anti-English crap we often get tarred with.
tag people you know to be yes voters when you share articles on Facebook then all their friends hopefully see the tag and the article – you can check out which of your friends like Yes Scotland for example, they will hopefully be happy to be tagged.
I share articles on newsfeed that are in the MSM http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-want-to-keep-their-perks–as-well-as-11-pay-rise-8895002.html then preface it with a quote from the article, comment about the rise in the cost to ordinary people of heating bills, the amount of people in Scotland living in poverty and simply ask: better together, really? (That made even pro-unionists sit up and listen).
I share what ordinary people are saying too. I might not be out on the street yet (I have put my name down as a volunteer), but I am trying to share information, little and often.
I like the shed in a local allotment, painted blue with the Yes logo on it – great idea, makes me smile.
Brilliant work Rev, and not only very humorous, but very accurate comments. I’m as critical as they come and I’m on a bit of a mission to be even-handed as much as possible, but can’t find a thing wrong with the deductions.
If those 20% undecideds in the headline poll moved on the basis of “how have your feeling changed” – i.e. 2 to 1, 13.3 to 6.7%, that would make YES 48.3%, NO 49.7%.
Scots in space! Aye right.. Pity about the name.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-glasgow-west-24685840
Lochside – I don’t understand your pessimism. It doesn’t chime with what I’ve witnessed in Aberdeen over the past few days at all – having counted up our donations and declaration signings from the Blair Jenkins event and Saturday stall, we were all pretty taken aback at how well things seem to be going.
“What about Govan?”
What about it? Labour took the first Govan seat very comfortably in 2012, and the total number of first-preference votes for Labour or ex-Labour candidates in 2012 (the Govan ward had two Glasgow First candidates and a further deselected Labour councillor) mean it would have taken a Herculean effort for the SNP to retain the seat (a fact which highlights why the Single Transferable Vote system is not all it is cracked up to be.) See LPW’s round-up from 2012 to see what I mean – http://lallandspeatworrier.blogspot.co.uk/2012/05/craigton-govan-pollokshields-vol-ii-of.html.
“This latest poll and the above results show that a large intransigent section of Scottish people are too stupid and too feart and too small-minded to imagine anything better.”
Is that really the message we want to be putting out to potential Yes voters? “Better Together say Scotland is too stupid to be independent, but actually it’s YOU that’s too stupid.”
“Look at the voting patterns I’ve quoted and tell me that the East End of Glasgow and the Central Belt are likely big Yes territory at the moment.”
A vote for Labour is not a vote for the union, despite what they would like to believe. You go to the poorest communities in Scotland, and there’s no love for Westminster there. Remember Tony Kelly’s fantastic rant on the Radio 5 debate where he said he knocks on doors in Shettleston and there’s not a single No voter there. And in Aberdeen, areas like Tillydrone and Torry are where the support for independence is at its highest.
Labour may have won Dunfermline as expected, but the SNP found Labour voters split 50/50 on independence when they canvassed them. People are capable of separating independence from party politics. Nobody says “I’m voting for the union because my dad voted for the union, and his dad voted for the union.”
You are indeed The Man, Stu. Thanks for another great poll.
I just want to reiterate and emphasise what has probably been said already.
Analytical breakdown like this is invaluable to Yes volunteers planning and adapting their strategies on a weekly and monthly basis.
What resonates is that , in the main, we all seem to be getting it right. The first months of the campaign were always going to be a step into the dark but the guidance proffered by Yes Scotland has proved correct in every way.
Undoubtedly the months ahead are going to be very uncomfortable as the dying British Establishment unleashes all in its death throes. We will disagree. We will fall out. We will regroup.
But above all, come September 2014 we WILL prevail.
Hail Alba.
Tony Kelly? I mean Tony Kenny, obviously.
kininvie: “But Twitter is 21%. That’s far from worthless when all’s said and done. I’ve often thought that we Twitter cybernats were largely talking to each other, but the figure suggests that’s not the case.”
Not worthless, no. But you get a lot of folk moaning that arguments on Twitter are going to put people off the referendum, as if every undecided voter in the country is paying attention to every argument between indy supporters and unionists. But what we see is that four out of five people are completely oblivious to the fact that such arguments are even going on at all.
I suspect the main role of Twitter at the moment is people of like minds sharing information, articles and links between each other, for dissemination amongst friends and colleagues on Facebook or in face-to-face conversations. Instances of it directly changing people’s minds are probably quite rare, for the simple reason that people tend to follow people on Twitter who already share their views on certain subjects, which is not so true of Facebook or real-life.
I was speaking to somebody the other week who said they liked to watch foreign news channels, and apparently the Scottish referendum is attracting a lot of interest in Georgia and other places in Eastern Europe (where they can’t believe the fact that the two sides aren’t assassinating one another….).
Anyway, one of those channels had done a documentary about it, and actually interviewed a lot of Scots, and the consensus of opinion that was coming across was ”My heart says Yes, but my head says No”.
Which suggests that if the Yes campaign can answer the hard, tricky, questions, it has so far brushed off with mere rhetoric, about the euro, EU, NATO, the banks, sterling, pensions, powers, relationship with rUK, will rUK still have a seat on the UN Security Council, relationship with the Bank of England, currency, defence, etc., then we could capture history.
Don’t know whether anyone’s done this but who cares!
Put “Johann Lamont re-writes history” into google, go to the SNP page.
At the bottom click on the link to the Scottish Labour website.
You will get the page “page not found”. Copy the link in the address bar.
Go to the internet archive – web dot archive dot org – website.
Enter the copied labour link into the box and click the “Browse History” button.
You get a page with a calendar. Click the entry for Feb 1 2013.
Use your browser “find” function, put “something for nothing” in. Enjoy!
I’m guessing the Labour Party have never heard of the “wayback machine” 🙂
So this was first impressions the poll left with me. The 16-24 demographic group of voters are, as always, a group that is going through life changing upheavals and are at liberty to change their minds on a week to week basis.
The main question people want answered is what’s in it for me?
Project fear (even after such a concerted effort) is having little or no effect on voter’s intentions.
Most, if not all of the project fear’s spokespeople convey a sense of fraud, corruption and a propensity to lie (regardless if it means demeaning Scotland and her culture). This coupled with the sterling work done by the YES grassroots campaign team/speakers/social media has seen the direction of travel move undoubtedly from the no, to don’t know, to finally rest at the Yes camp.
A measly 4% swing is all that is needed to see YES quash the idea of Scotland being a region of N. Britain. The fact it is some ten months out from the day when the Scottish people confirm what Winnie Ewing has already declared – that the Scottish Government has re-convened, will also have project fear drawing up plans as to how best to negotiate the terms of the union’s demise.
The long awaited white paper (and the resultant discourse that stems from it), the Ryder cup, the Commonwealth games, and the 700th anniversary of Bannockburn will all have positive effects on raising the profile of Scotland. The concomitant feel good factor they will generate is a factor I’m sure the YES campaign has accounted for. The proposed visit of the Westminster cabinet sometime in 2014, will surely by worth the 4% in itself. 🙂
I wonder if Mr. Cameron has pencilled in time for a debate whilst he’s in that neck of the woods?
Keef
As Alex salmond has repeatedly pointed out “we haven’t started yet”
And we haven’t. We are in a phoney war at the moment letting the NAWs fire all their stuff. We have it all recorded and each part of it will be taken apart.
After eighteen months of the most virulent and vicious campign against YES and against Alex Salmond by all the media and TV NO is slowly going backwards and we haven’t even started yet.
Pleasing to realise this point Dave.
However, I expect the naw mob will have a few more “Grangemouths” in the pipeline as well.
The politics and intrigue of that near car-crash has, if nothing else, revealed the devious underhand lengths the naw shower will stoop to in their attempts to subvert democracy.
Lochside I was on both marches myself and my view point was different from yours I remember saying to the people I was with about just how many young people and women were there considering they were not supposed to be interested I would say that the social mix was about how it should be. There were plenty of enthusiastic young people and women at evey aspic of the marches I was at.
So the expert commissioned by Labour believes that the Scottish pocket money from Westminster will be cut by £2.2 billion. Yet that is their argument to vote No. Just how stupid are these people?
http://archive.is/QdTkX
“Commissioned by Labour, Prof Midwinter’s report says universal benefits and the council tax freeze have led to cuts in efforts designed to help people out of poverty.He adds that the pressure to fund such programmes will increase after the next election, when he believes the Scottish block grant from Westminster will be cut by £2.2billion.”
As it is nearly Halloween here’s a little something
These creature stalk the night when all good people are asleep, these denizens of the darkness are plotting against those good people,as they stir peacefully in the sleep of the just and the unaware
and when the good people awake they see the fecal matter left behind by those creatures swirling in the raw wind and when one of those pieces of detritus comes to a rest you can see writing on this disgusting waste matter,
One says Scotland will fail alone,
another cries doom and disaster awaits ,
and yet another wails of invasion by group or groups unknown
yes good people we are now in
THE TWILIGHT ZONE
the spectres of the night?
The Scottish newsprint of course,
lets see we have the (Headless) Scotsman
who’s cries of pain and despair are pitiful to behold,
and the sound of gibberish suggests it is speaking in tongues in a language all of its own,
then we have the Herald (of disaster) with a few sunny spells
announcing portents from the runes of a country split asunder, and swallowed in hot ash and volcanoes while being attacked by succubus and daemons,
and moving on we see the Telegraph sending messages from a bygone era. stop,
General Lamont lifts the seige of Holyrood.stop
the peoples of our fair land rejoice. stop.
Then we have the (broken) Record
which dear reader is the scariest of all of these deluded spirits
imagine a motel on a remote dusty desert road where high above the motel sit a figure in the window, never moving just staring ,forever staring,
while down below the son Torquil but we’ll call him Norman is constantly busy preparing rooms for people who will never visit and all the while his eyes rolling as if he is about to catch and eat a passing fly,
(some thing he actually does when noone is looking, which is most of the time) but he busies himself doing meaningless tasks for people who (almost )never come,
but when they do
oh when they do his first task when they (ahem) check out is to change the shower curtain?
when on looking closer at the figure in the window high above ones blood runs cold it, it, its Marcia sccrrreeeaaammmm.
But in all this despair and gloom comes a man of the cloth, a reverend, the cloth doesn’t matter he is a reverend of all peoples and none and he carries with him a sharpened stake,
which when he turns his attention to one of these creatures they run and cower in fear because they know what is coming to them,
and when the stake is brought down on the wailing shapeless bundle that was once honorable and decent like all men should be, the end brings a peace to both the innocent people it stalked and also to the poor deluded creature who when dispatched shows a sense of peace on its countenance,
but all of the creatures (because they are many) attack and attack again and again (because since their possession) they know nothing else, but the fear, oh the fear is always there you can see it in their faces even when they are in full fury , the fear is still there,
The fear has a sound and the sound dear readers is
TICK TOCK TICK TOCK TICK TOCK
sleep well.
In the same vein as the above post,
I will be going to work today with a shirt and trousers ripped to shreds
my face will have white face paint on it and strategically placed blood spatters,
why? I here ask did your wife finally snap?
that’s a distinct possibility which is why I sleep with one eye open 😉
but no sadly I will be dressed like a zombie, one of the undead, to keep the weans in my team happy as they’ll all be dressed as assorted witches gouls and, well you get the picture,
but under the shredded shirt I will be wearing a tee shirt which proudly states
“A HUNDRED OF US REMAIN ALIVE”
and if you squint at the wings logo of the lion wing-ed,
you could be forgiven for seeing a Phoenix rising from the ashes
the shredded shirt WILL get chucked after I’ve got the weans off my back
I’ll wait,
saying nothing to see if the penny drops,
don’t hold your breath.
@dadsarmy
Good to see you dads. 🙂
Looks like that wee chat we had a while back in CiF is coming on form. I think we both reckoned on either single digit difference or at least close to even running by the end of the year would be a pretty good result at the time. Still two months and a white paper to go and we’ve seen a twenty point gap close to 8-10 so far.
Maybe a wee bit slower than I’d like, but still pretty decent progress over the piece. It is so definitely all to play for. 🙂
Another Labour clone elected. ‘Something for Nothing’ Lament.
Lament and the Clones get something fo nothing – £70K+ from the taxpayers.
The feeble fifty . After the Clones in Westminster land Scotland in debt and Scottish tax revenues being handed over to the UK Treasury. Lament wants to put up Council tax, putting more people in poverty. Something for nothing. Scotland outvoted 10 to 1. No taxation without Representation.
You losers are still going to get trounced.
Deal with it!
“…because of the Edinburgh Agreement which defines the result of the referendum as final.”
To what extent?
http://www.scottishtimes.com/scots_human_rights_european_advocate
Excellent comment by Iain MacWhirter on Radio Scotland GMS at 8.15 on how “Super Salmond saved Grangemount” while Lamont was silent.
Call Kaye at 8.50 discussing Grangemouth.
I wouldn’t worry about the 16-24 results. Anyone in that demographic who has an opinion about politics is most likely involved with a political party already – and we know that the Pro-Indy parties are in a minority when you add up total members. So the rest are here to be persuaded!
This is great stuff.
Sorry if I have missed it, but has anyone been able to obtain figures for Yes/No/DK as it relates to the use of social media? Also, was it possible to establish use of social media by age group/gender.
I know lots of people don’t like facebook, but it really is a great way to reach women and young people I use facebook to stay in touch with cousins, nieces and nephews that I don’t see very often, as well as friends and colleagues. I am also ‘friends’ with my kids and some of their friends.
Whenever I post a link on facebook to this site, or to an article, movie clip or whatever, they all see it, and depending on the privacy settings, word is spread. Most young people are rubbish (or don’t care) about privacy settings, so word is spread far and wide.
Most of my female facebook friends use FB to post photos and ‘good news’ stories about the family, share recipes or to comment on TV, movies etc or just pass on general celebrity gossip. Sometimes they are looking for help or support with something. I am constantly drip-feeding independence info throughout. It just gets mixed in with the every day stuff
I know some people are reading it, and I also know it will be appearing on other people’s pages. I have no proof, but from my experience, facebook is more popular with women (of all ages) than it is with men.
I recommend that everyone sets up a facebook page and links with their female friends and relatives. This is a captive audience. They are using it everyday (most of them are connected all day) and if you post something, they will always see it.
Depending on how creative you are about describing the content of a link, they will follow it. I find that video clips like ’10 unionist myths debunked’ work very well because they are witty as well as informative. The graphics are also great because often they don’t need to open a link. The image is just staring at them from the screen. And it’s all free advertising for Yes.
In addition, you can ‘like’ to pro-indy sites and they will automatically send you stuff to share. Even if you just ‘like’ it, or make a comment, your friends will see it too.
@John King-
FFS man!! It’s no wonder you never sleep.
(Remember and check that Magrit isny under yer bed…mind you, Blair McDougal might be in yer wardrobe, standing quietly, unblinking, behind the shirts…)
@Ianbrotherhood
Cue Carpenter’s Halloween music. 🙂
Now picture the scene with those unblinking orbs searching, searching for they know not not what?
@Ian Brotherhood
Could be worse Mctoogle in the wardrobe and Purcell cutting about under your bed
O/T
But Scotsmans letter pages getting more like the Daily Wail by the day.
http://archive.is/JzzY7
Lamentable is a intellectual Pygmy. Student loans are means-tested. On a sliding scale of household income £21 – £42K. (Two parents on average wage £21K = £42)
Student loans got from £3000 to £1000, on a sliding scale, from households income of £21K. Over £42K students get £1000 – all repayable.
Students of household of less than £21K get a £3000 Grant ad well.
The Denial of the ‘something for nothing’ speech, is extraordinary and an insult to Democracy.
Imagine you woke up in the dead of night. You can’t move. There’s a heavy weight on your chest, pushing you down. You know you can’t scream. You open your eyes…and there’s JoLa, her face only four inches from yours…eyes white, mouth agape, and she’s whispering ‘We need a real debate…’
Ian
Was that really necessary? I struggle a bit with the Monday morning commute as it is…I am now in a state of shock.
/\(Oo)/\
One of the ‘S’ papers letter writers (Aberdeenshire) is a well know Union supporter, constantly campaigning against the SNP/Yes/Independence.
What about the others?
Impartial journalism in Scotland?
Ok here’s a question for everyone:
What is 1% of the Scottish voting public in numbers?
I will make a rough guess:
If it’s say 3 million, and we expect the turnout to be 75%, that’s 2.25 Million…
So for every 22,000 unique readers that wings attracts, we are getting 1% of the likely electorate!
If a lot of these new visitors are DK’s, then Wings is having on hell of an impact on this referendum.
The growth in wings viewers has been on average 10,000 per month, I’m sure Rev mentioned that his latest figures had the monthly figure up to 130,000 (can you confirm Rev)
If we need a 4% swing and wings is attracting just 1% extra visitors every two months then we can win the referendum all by ourselves!!! It’s that close 🙂
So C’mon everybody, lets not blame the naysayers and youth for a cringe that Labour in particular have been cultivating for year upon year.
When you speak to anyone tell them about wings, and now that the BBC and Herald are mentioning us…
look out for even bigger visitor numbers. 🙂
“Imagine you woke up in the dead of night. You can’t move. There’s a heavy weight on your chest, pushing you down. You know you can’t scream. You open your eyes…and there’s JoLa, her face only four inches from yours…eyes white, mouth agape, and she’s whispering ‘We need a real debate…!”
I think I’d whimper with fear, then blurt out in an unintended high pitched shriek:
‘did you say you wanted me to ‘DEBATE; you Johann?
Patrick
Think the Scottish electorate is about 4m so you are looking at 30,000 although 75% turn out may be at the high end. Such is voter apathy in recent years I think 70% might be more realistic so 28,000 would be the target. Between all the various Yes sites – we are far more prolific on the internet than the No camp plus the Government getting into full swing following the publishing of the white paper 4% is eminently doable.
Apologies for posting this again, however please share with friends and ask them to forward on to their friends too.
This is a 20 odd second promo of the Wings website… it’s free and won’t cost you anything but your time to forward.
Yours aye, Ken
http://youtu.be/Sm4mX_-hbEE
@HandandShrimp,
Good stuff, so we are having a big impact.
No wonder ‘certain individuals’ have tried so hard to discredit and smear the Rev !
I think for once, we should congratulate the BBC. JoLa obviously thought she was turning up for a “Woohoo We won Dunfermline!” celebratory chat and was gobsmacked when asked the following :
“So, if you were First Minister last week, would you have been constrained considering youre in Unite”
and then
“The approval figures for Alex Salmonds Government remain high, so do you believe it will take a few elections before you could be First Minister?”
After that she just lost the plot. By the time she was asked to state what she was for, it was a lost cause and out came the “I never said someone gets something for nothing!” and the “Lets debate Council Tax” plea’s.
If you listened very carefully, you could hear her SPAD off camera falm-palm!
@Ian Brotherhood @Patrick Roden
Whos Who will soon reflect “Lamont is viewed as somewhat of a mass debater”
O/T
Just in case anyone’s missed Ninjapenguin’s fine little song about our favourite Unionist:
Another aspect about Grangemouth last week is the revelation that UNITE officials, including Steven Deans, were informed early last week about the nature of email correspondence concerning Falkirk. Ineos management knew what UNITE must have known.
Soon after that we had Labour politicians and activists upping their attacks against Ineos management and also their very personal attacks against Jim Ratcliffe. You get the feeling that Scottish Labour are very much under the thumb of UNITE.
Hmm. On Wednesday evening I have a choice of going to Yes Scotland at Penicuick or Better Together Musselburgh’s first public meeting in Musselburgh.
Any thoughts?
Andrew
Know your enemy and challenge their assumptions
I attended an event yesterday where Gerry Hassan and Iain MacWhirter discussed with the audience the idea ‘Independence then …… ‘ I also managed to speak briefly with Mr MacWhirter afterwards and I took quite a few things from this meeting.
Iain shared my dismay over the media and lack of balance. He said Norwegian and Danish journalists had told him they were shocked at the plain bias and in fact it would be illegal in their countries. Oh how I wish that were the case here.
I’m surprised the polls are so positive in light of the above. However, we need to be vigilant, keep case by case comparisons. We may need them in the days to come. Grangemouth for me is a sign of what is to come.
Mr MacWhirter also spelled out the very real consequences of a No vote (Unlike Mr Hassan). It has already been flagged up by a handful of labour politicians. What Westminster will not thole any longer is different social policies within the British State. Our services we value so highly are seriously at risk.
So what I’m really saying is, we need a high turnout at the referendum. For which we need to try to ensure a high voter registration.
We need to get over to all the disengaged people, the folk we want to be able to lift out of current state where helplessness and daily grind of existing takes up their energy and willpower. Show them that Independence Will make a difference to them. They are by and large Not on the internet, the kind of folk who blindly turn out for the labour party, ‘don’t get above yoursel’ mentality and the downtrodden.
Show the status quo is not an option. Westminster will be punitive and spiteful. Our nation, is seriously under fire. We are at a war with the British State which is fighting for its survival.
Another London dividend – Yes I listened to the interview with Ian MacWhirter and Peter Murray of ‘Union News’
Was jaw dropping (well mine anyway) when Ian MacWhirter appeared to be taking control of the interview as Peter Murray started talking about the union being presented with ‘sign or be sacked’ , which he repeated and was not pulled up on it by Gary Robertson. Its audible that MacWhirter was getting exasperated at why Murray wasn’t being pulled up So Ian steps in and correct Peter Murray. Priceless!
The MacWhirter’s comment that Lamont is a member of Unite and the ‘Super Salmond’ name tag, just added to further jaw dropping
I could just imagine Labour’s Paul Sinclair phoning Boothman, with a verbal tirade just as the interview was finishing
Piece starts at 2:10:00
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03dwp9b
Target groups. An excellent idea. Consider the Dispossessed Young. Give them hope, help them register and show them a way out of the “sink estates” that are their prison.
Emphasise that their condition is a result of deliberate policy by the SLAB politicians.
Emphasise that the only hope is a New Scotland.
Kininvie – that was brillant- shared on FB,’keep taking the pills’ funny as hell 🙂
I’ve felt a bit gloomy and defeatist this past week or so. I was starting to think the task is just too big to get that vital majority of Yes votes.
This has given me hope but I still think we have a massive, massive task ahead of us to not only persuade the DKs but maintain them as well up to 18/9/14.
The MSM will be relentless next year, and unfortunately that is still where a sizeable chuck of the population get their information from. We have a hell of a battle on our hands.
@Gillie
You get the feeling that Scottish Labour are very much under the thumb of UNITE.
Johann knows if she loses Unite, she loses her job. She is only in power thanks to them. As Grangemouth saga concluded with everyone relieved, I had actually forgot the small factor that while Len McCluskey was claiming it was a great result, the whole thing was kicked off thanks to his mate Mr Deans trying to wangle McCluskeys girlfriend a seat in Parliament. Shameful all round.
http://www.truthdig.com/eartotheground/item/facebook_may_join_forces_with_police_to_thwart_protests_20131026?ln
I’m sure the users of FB will be a tad concerned to learn of this circulating proposal.
Edward says:
“Another London dividend – Yes I listened to the interview with Ian MacWhirter and Peter Murray of ‘Union News’
Was jaw dropping (well mine anyway) when Ian MacWhirter . . . ”
I’ve just listened to this and Paul Sinclair would have been impressed by the interviewer who, instead of following up on Iain’s point by asking Pete Murray to respond, merely ignored Iain and carried on with the interview as though nothing had happened. One can only imagine what the producer was spluttering into his headphones, “For God’s sake, whatever you do, don’t ask him that!”
“Sorry if I have missed it, but has anyone been able to obtain figures for Yes/No/DK as it relates to the use of social media?”
Not vastly different to the general populace. As you’d expect, Yes voters used social media more, but only by 10-12%.
Anne
Exactly. We need the 57% who couldn’t be bothered at Dunfermline to be given good reasons to vote.
Engage the disengaged – the middle classes will divide as per polls, but if we really want a big % and we do, we must persuade the poor and the can’t be bothereds.
@Macart
Been busy on the Herald, which does a very good job, at least there’s one paper. Pretty balanced apart from Macwhirter and Bell!
Yes, it’s slow moving, but I like the advance of the undecideds, 31% in one survey. The first thing was to move everyone off their duff and away from the automatic NO, and to take an interest, and the NO campaign have done a great job of making people aware – and wary. The White Paper should, if it’s any good, make a good difference.
I realised that end of year is Christmas and Hogmanay, and January is active for polls, so I’ve changed my prediction to level peggin in the January polls, but sticking with my result – 75% YES, 25% NO, with a turnout of 75%.
It’s frustrating not seeing much YES campaigning, but the strategy was right; 18 months for awareness and questioning, and letting the NO campaign be falsetto and totally outrageous. This has put the backs up of people who know better, like people in Scotland with defence knowledge, economics, even pensions. Rather than the YES campaign having to counter the garbage NO come out with, ordinary neutral people are starting to do it themselves. Very encouraging!
Ayone reading who gets depressed – don’t be. It’s very possible it’s all going completely to plan.
KARA , Ma shed backs on to a main bus route through my scheme Its the LION RAMPANT BROKEN UNION JACK ( caption britain s broken ) BOTH SIDE S ARE THE SALTIRE AIRDRIE 10 GARTLEAHILL ML6 9PT REV if you can get somebodys over your Welcome to repaint the side with the wings logo ( as I had intended but not fit waiting on this brain operation ) but the whole back garden Would be great Advertizing for the cause YES SCOT ronald anderson profile MA WEE SHED ah would like to get it finnished but unable as said E MAIL me if your interested thousands of people have seen it ( whn there a traffic jam on the main rd traffic build up people leave their cars to read & take photo s
@dadsarmy
Ayone reading who gets depressed – don’t be. It’s very possible it’s all going completely to plan.
I’d agree with that. We’re already beginning to see a squeeze on that lead and the growing number of DK is a reflection of this. Only one side of the argument will be filling out detail on a future for Scotland in the next eleven months, BT have left themselves with nowhere to go on Scotland’s devolved future. Whatever they come up with certainly won’t have five hundred odd pages of detail. 🙂
Edward
Listened myself to GMS this morning and it cheered me up I can say! Macwhirter in fine form and just blew the whole UNITE thing apart as well as fingering Lamont who is in unite. Super Salmond without whose help the plant would be shut.
🙂
dadsarmy –
“Been busy on the Herald, which does a very good job, at least there’s one paper. Pretty balanced apart from Macwhirter and Bell!”
I’m confused, you think MacWhirter and bell are not balanced??
Have you read MacWhirters excellent piece on yesterday’s Sunday Herald? If not suggest you read. Also MacWhirters appearance on this mornings GMS (which may result in him being banned from the BBC for a bit!)
Oh dear! Sorry rev for the double entendre, cough!
🙁
Ian Brotherhood says
“Remember and check that Magrit isny under yer bed…mind you, Blair McDougal might be in yer wardrobe, standing quietly, unblinking, behind the shirts…)”
Gonnie no dae that Ian,
jist
gonnie no 🙁
@john king-
I know man, I’m giving meself the heebie-jeebies here.
The worst I’ve imagined is opening the curtains in the middle of the night – Jackie Baillie’s floating there in her big white night-gown, smiling at ye, running her fingernails down the glass…but I won’t mention that one.
@Edward
No, I think Macwwhirter tries to be balanced at times, but both he and Bell are quite firmly on the YES side, I think.
@Macart, yes, and I think it’s possible that there’s going to start being a steady stream of good news, much of it independent and therefore unassailable. I think and hope the constant scaremongering has hacked a whole load of people off.
Remember ages ago I came up with 3-4 frigates (plus the small stuff) as Scotland’s share of the RN? I did at last a costing of prices new of the big ticket stuff, which gets some kind of relative cost anyway, and came up with the equivalent, not of 3 or 4, but 8 frigates. That’s not going to happen as it leaves poor old rUK with only 5.
But my idea would be to swap 5 frigates for 20 Typhoons, add that to our 10 share, plus a few more for getting the tranche 1s which only have limited air to ground (Paveway) and will be replaced anyway, but they have air to air. for a total of 3 full squadrons which, coincidentally and quite by chance, will be at Lossiemouth in 2015. That’ll do for the big stuff.
@Dadsarmy
Yep, remember that chat. I think the opposition were trying to head this off at the pass recently with the whole Salmond commissioning independent defence report with public funds nonsense. I reckon they can see what’s coming up the track vis a vis defence (an argument they thought they had in the bag) and its got them rattled. 🙂
@Macart
My guess is that Hammond’s scaremongering is practically totally ineffective now, though I expect out of dumbness they’ll keep it up right up to a YES vote. Then it’ll be dual silly bargaining and charm offensive.
The result for defence should be what’s in the best interests of both, having an easy transition is clearly the best, and can very easily lead to no disruption to overall UK = Scotland + rUK defence, and very little extra cost, at least in the early stages.
I did 3 or 4 long tedious postings on Herald with my ideas for transition, and for the cost justification of our share of navy being 8 frigates equivalent, using Hammond’s own figure of 10 Typhoons on this thread:
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/referendum-news/robertson-looks-to-foster-stronger-connections-with-northern-allies.22487108
Bawheid, thanks for the link to Mark Franklands Blog.
Since being directed to the Wings site many months ago, my knowledge of the refererendum and the issues surrounding it has increased hugely, [ and this from someone who thought he was clued up].
The information I’ve gleaned from Stu and the people who post here has been invaluable in trying to convince anyone who’ll listen, about what’s right for the country , for them, their bairns and my grandbairns.
Looking at the data that Stu has painstakingly broken down, I am more convinced than ever that we will win. People in the dk’s are just about there, and the young will follow [ according to my oldest grandson].
Bring it on.
@dadsarmy
Agreed, RN won’t wish to endanger standing operations or future commitments in the event of an independent Scotland. Fleet/resource operational compatibility will be uppermost in their mind and a bargaining chip all on its own for the SG. Material will not be the problem for the SG, these are at the end of the day, negotiable assets. I’ve never really doubted that any force would be fairly well equipped from the get go. No, the real sticking point will be ground forces and their disposition. That’s where mum and dad get to argue over the weans. The regiments will be their strategy during the campaign proper to attack the defence proposals. Shear manpower and transition, looking to see the homework well and truly nailed on that in the white paper.
Oh and yeah, I could have predicted who would have been first to knock on your door in that thread too. 🙂
I see the negotiations post-YES as starting with an opening salvo from the SG something like this:
“In Scotland we have had a very open and noisy 3 years before the referendum, with both the YES and NO campaigns openly voicing all the pros and cons of our Independence. We will have problems and disruption, we will have huge advantages.
On the other hand people in the rUK have been shielded from the effects of our Independence, the loss of our 9.9% contribution to the revenues and economy, the division of assets, the relocation of offices and responsibilities. This will be a huge shock to them as, unlike the People of Scotland, they are totally unprepared.
Now, we look forward to these negotiations, and we intend to conduct them fairly, and in the spirit of casuing the minimum of disruption to both great Peoples, the minimum cost for both parties to these negotiations, while securing a fair and equitable agreement for Scotland.”
Something like that!
@dadsarmy
That will be a helluva shock to the system for the rUK electorate. There will be certain unavoidable severe fiscal ramifications from a YES vote for Westminster. Firstly Westminster bereft of a huge chunk of resource and taxation, which they currently rely on for balance of debt repayment will go cap in hand to the public purse. Harder and deeper cuts to current public spending will result. The public will, not unreasonably, demand to know the how and why to all of the above?
Secondly will come the PR war fallout. The public would demand to know why they had been either shielded or mislead on much of what the government and press released as fact over the period. Both the sitting government and their direct parliamentary opposition would have many deep and uncomfortable questions to answer. Much falling on swords may be demanded by a decidedly grumpy public unhappy with the economic belt tightening and political misdirection employed against them. Last, but not least, there are other ramifications in terms of defence, international relations, memberships etc, but you could literally write a book on the possibilities there.
A position of generous and friendly negotiations put forward by the Scottish government would hopefully help keep things calm in a transition period or they may only serve to underline the depth and breadth of the deceit perpetrated against the rUK electorate. Hard to tell this far out. Almost certainly though, a lot of prominent figures may find their careers coming to a sudden halt.
That is their problem most of the Ruk. are only too ready to believe what Westminster politicians have been telling them that Scotland is a subsidy junky we however know the truth and it will come as a shock to them The politicians will get off with it Scot free excuse the pun as the system they have in place rewards failure and lying.
@Macart
It’s quite incredible, flattering, but starkly incedible. Nearly 22 months since the Referendum hit the news in Scotland and all over the UK, as far as I can see there’s been not one paper about the consequences for the rUK, they’re all about poor old Scotland, being dragged into Independence unwillingly by Salmond and the SNP.
And yet some of the reserved matters have offices in Scotland to administer parts of it, like HMRC, passports, can’t really think. There’s 9.9% or thereabouts less going into the coffers, yet the House of Lords considers it will just replace any military hardware Scotland gets as our share. Not thinking that there’s 9.9% less to pay for it, or they have to increase the defence budget by 11%, and find the funds for unplanned military expenditure. Same for embassies, either they lose some, or pay the full cost with 90% of the budget.
Yes, there’ll be a backlash, but not just against the rUK politicians that let them down, but the London based media that’s so intent on putting Salmond and the SNP in their place they’re oblivious to their own danger, the danger of having to increase their deficit to cover up to that 9.9% loss each year (which could mean adding 40-50% to the deficit), have pensions and benefits not paid on time, have an incomplete defence or be unable to honour then current committments, and the list goes on.
Crazy.
Make that 20-25% added to the relative deficit.
@dadsarmy
That’s my reading of it dads. I can’t think of a country/state entity on the face of the planet that would easily thole losing almost 10% of its income without having bean counters throw themselves out of high windows.
When the other shoe drops on the rUK electorate the shockwaves will definitely leave a mark.
@Paul
As you say, their choice. In event of a YES vote they’re going to be somewhat piqued when the bill to the public purse is put forward.
Sorry, coming to this late! Brilliant work Rev! Thanks!