The world's most-read Scottish politics website

Wings Over Scotland


The Kinnock Factor

Posted on September 18, 2012 by

Barely a day’s gone by since we started this site on which we haven’t cursed our failure to save an opinion piece we read in one of the English broadsheet newspapers a few months before the 2011 Holyrood election.

Labour were riding high in the polls, and the more exciteable elements of the Unionist press in Scotland were even tentatively talking of an absolute majority. But the column we read in the Telegraph, or the Times, or perhaps even the Mail On Sunday, by a writer whose name we can’t recall a syllable of, was having none of it.

It confidently predicted an SNP victory, despite them being something like 12/1 against with the bookies at the time, on very simple grounds: no matter what the polls say, when it comes to the crunch voters never elect the party with the worst leader. The most famous UK example is Neil Kinnock, but our infuriatingly-unknown author pinned the same label on Iain Gray, and was proven right in the most spectacular manner. We may have forgotten his name, but we’ve never forgotten the lesson.

We hope one day to remember and rediscover the original piece, but at least now we have a similar one to point to. Politicalbetting.com today reports a dramatic surge of 9 points in Labour’s UK lead, from 6% to 15%. But at the same time it sounds a note of caution: even with Labour so far in front, twice as many people want David Cameron to remain Prime Minister than want Ed Miliband to take the job.

And when it comes down to it, that’s what will decide the outcome of the next Westminster election. It doesn’t matter how much the electorate likes your policies if it doesn’t believe your leader has the strength to carry them out. Labour is infamously reluctant to sack its leaders, and unless something makes Miliband voluntarily fall on his sword in the next three years – and we can’t imagine what that would be – he’ll lead Labour into the 2015 campaign.

If he does, we’ll make our prediction now: regardless of what other events may transpire, Labour will lose, and everyone will know they’re going to lose well in advance of the vote – very possibly as far in advance as autumn 2014. Kevin McKenna referred obliquely to that possibility in his Observer column last Sunday:

“Before long the Nationalists will simply be unable to resist the temptation of urging Scots to vote independence for a Tory-free Scotland. The prospect of living in a country where the party of Thatcher, the Bullingdon Club and the Hillsborough cover-up can never again make a decision affecting Scots will be attractive to many.”

We agree entirely with that view. At present, Labour has leaders both north and south of the border who it’s all but impossible for a rational observer to picture in control of their respective countries. (Go on, just try to imagine Johann Lamont as Scotland’s representative on the world stage.) Whenever you read an opinion poll in the next couple of years, whether it’s about an election or a referendum, always remember to apply the Kinnock Factor to the numbers. It changes everything.

15 to “The Kinnock Factor”

  1. Embradon says:

    I remember a Spitting Image episode from around the time of Kinnock’s succession. If I may paraphrase: Some Tory grandees are gloomily pontificating –
    “Kinnock’s a worry though. Intelligent…. articulate…. credible…. good on TV….”
     Then – “Just as well her husband’s a wally!”
    I thought it cruel at the time and would much have preferred him to another dose of Torys but middle England thought otherwise. That removed the last vestige of doubt that independence is absolutely our only protection against Thatcherite supply-side economists whether Con, Lib or Nu-Lab.

    Reply
  2. Doug Daniel says:

    Anyone in any doubt that a Miliband-led Labour party will be rejected by the electorate in 2015 need only take a swift look at this blog: link to awkwardedmilibandmoments.tumblr.com

    Reply
  3. Juteman says:

    I think it’s fairly obvious that a strong and popular leader is a vote winner, hence the non-stop attacks by the Uneeys on AS, and their obvious attempts to turn the referendum into a personality competition. Very clever decision to give Nicola more of a leading roll.
     
    For some reason, i posted this in another thread.

    Reply
  4. Morag says:

    I never thought Kinnock was really all that bad.

    Lamont, on the other hand, is appalling.  Miliband is just a toom tabard.

    Reply
  5. jon abroad says:

    Rev: was this the article by any chance?
    link to guardian.co.uk
    Just a shot, but it does say:
    “SNP leader Alex Salmond remains highly popular. In contrast, his Labour counterpart, Iain Gray, is both unknown and unloved. Voters seem inclined to believe the SNP would make a better fist of running Scotland – and of standing up to London.”

    Reply
    • Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      Nope, definitely not that one. It was in one of the more right-wing papers, and it was very explicit about saying “the public never elects the party with the worst leader”.

      Reply
  6. Arbroath 1320 says:

    I found these two clips of Neil Kinnock.
     
    Does this clip allow us to give Kinnock the title of fortune teller?
    Is he REALLY talking about Milliband and/or Lamont?
    link to youtube.com
     
    This clip is what I think you might want to classify as Kinnock’s HIGH point in leadership of the Labour party.
    link to youtube.com
     

    Reply
  7. Arbroath 1320 says:

    O.K. folks here’s the weather forecast for everyone who will be in Edinburgh on Saturday.
     
    link to bbc.co.uk
     
    I wonder if:
    a) Is the BBC aware of what is happening on Saturday?
    b) If the BBC ARE aware of Saturday’s event how did they feel about putting up Saturday’s forecast?

    Reply
  8. Siôn Eurfyl Jones says:

    I can’t decide – is Miliband really Mike or is he Bernie Winters? Has hew got a clarinet? 

    Reply
  9. Bill C says:

    Morag, with all due respect, Toom Tabard (empty suit) was the nickname given to John Balliol by Scots prior to the Scottish Wars of Independence. Neil Kinnock, being a Welshman, might merit the title, but Ed Milliband, being an Englishman I think not!

    Yours for Scotland 

    Bill

    Reply
  10. Morag says:

    My point stands, I think.

    Reply
  11. MajorBloodnok says:

    The problem for Labour is that the days of principled folk with a true social conscience being drawn to the party are long gone.  It’s now only for the mindlessly self-serving and ambitious who think they’ve made it because they get to wear a suit and tie most days and might even make it to the Lords! Jings!

    And that is why the SNP is far stronger because it (currently) is made up of people who are ambitious for Scotland before themselves.  We still need politicians and leaders with ideals and principles and to be honest only the SNP (plus maybe the Greens and SSP I suppose) are able to demonstrate that (the less said about the Lib-Dems the better).

    Reply
  12. Emyr Morgan says:

    Kinnock was a ("Tractor" - Ed) to 

    His nation, for his self promoting, no stance in the 1979 Welsh Devolution Referendum
    His class, for not supporting the miners

    I remember his actions well, growing up in a Welsh Speaking Mining Community in the 80’s

    As much as I hate Thatcher I hate the Kinnocks more 

    Reply
  13. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    I hate Scargill much more than Kinnock for the miners’ strike. His ego-driven lack of a ballot played right into Thatcher’s hands, and made things very difficult for the opposition parties.

    Reply
  14. Bill C says:

    Hi Morag,  sorry I see your point, sometimes can’t see the wood for the Scottish trees!

    I agree with both  Emryr and Rev Stu. Kinnock did betray his country, his class and his socialist beliefs, his betrayal on nuclear weapons was beyond contempt.  Scargill was an idiot and fell into Thatcher’s trap. My father-in-law worked for British Rail at the time along with a mate of his who was responsible for the transport of coal to the power stations. He said that he couldn’t understand why they were shipping so much coal to the power stations,this went on for 6 months before Scargill called the strike. Scargill was a lamb to the Tory slaughter! 

    Reply


Comment - please read this page for comment rules. HTML tags like <i> and <b> are permitted. Use paragraph breaks in long comments. DO NOT SIGN YOUR COMMENTS, either with a name or a slogan. If your comment does not appear immediately, DO NOT REPOST IT. Ignore these rules and I WILL KILL YOU WITH HAMMERS.


  • About

    Wings Over Scotland is a (mainly) Scottish political media digest and monitor, which also offers its own commentary. (More)

    Stats: 6,747 Posts, 1,216,840 Comments

  • Recent Posts

  • Archives

  • Categories

  • Tags

  • Recent Comments

    • Young Lochinvar on The Takeover: “Andrew Sorry, I disagree. Good points are being made and “BTL” post protocols aside it gets asinine with folk “wanging…Apr 30, 00:49
    • Geri on The Takeover: “I’d bet a pound to a pile of shite there is an Englishman there in the thick of it all.…Apr 30, 00:17
    • James on The Takeover: “AH! A “Carol”. Where did you appear from, poppet? Diversity! The 77th now have a laydee poster. Or is wee…Apr 30, 00:11
    • James on The Takeover: ““Chas” (lol) “How come so many nutters contribute to the ‘comments section’ on Wings?” Go on “Chas”, Look in a…Apr 30, 00:03
    • Geri on The Takeover: “GM They’re making a big deal of it because colonialism thrives on division & conflict & sectarianism is their favourite…Apr 29, 23:49
    • Geri on The Takeover: “James Cheyne I’m so sorry for your loss. I hope you are okay. Sending you hugs at this difficult time…Apr 29, 23:31
    • GM on The Takeover: “Hatey McHateface says: 29 April, 2025 at 9:16 pm You are being taken for a fool.. Could be! Political Islam…Apr 29, 22:51
    • Yoon Scum on The Takeover: “Chas Are you saying that we can’t cast a magic spell while wearing the holy tartan cap and holding up…Apr 29, 21:17
    • Hatey McHateface on The Takeover: ““The Muslims from Scotland that I know are Scottish. No question” Yet only a few posts above, we have Alf…Apr 29, 21:16
    • GM on The Takeover: “Aye, f all to do with being muslim. I am slightly puzzled why they are making a big deal out…Apr 29, 20:59
    • Chas on The Takeover: “Sadly Cheyne is not alone in posting repetitive pish. There are too many living in the past banging on about…Apr 29, 20:48
    • Bilbo on The Takeover: “Who controls the past, controls the future.Apr 29, 20:27
    • GM on The Takeover: “NO.Definitely not Bilbo. Hopefully copying the USA is at the start of being on its way ootApr 29, 20:27
    • GM on The Takeover: “The Muslims from Scotland that I know are Scottish. No question and the ones I know from abroad don’t exhibit…Apr 29, 20:11
    • Hatey McHateface on The Takeover: “You’re wasting your time on the right side of history, Marie. The left side of history is where all the…Apr 29, 19:59
    • carol Neill on The Takeover: “Much as I am sympathetic with James cheynes recent loss I am not missing their posts Same shit all day…Apr 29, 19:52
    • Bilbo on The Takeover: “Never heard of the band until recently. They sound like the Northern Irish version of the Bearsden and Milngavie scheme…Apr 29, 19:43
    • Andrew scott on The Takeover: “James cheyne off on his (not missed) rants which have ZERO to do with revs post Stick to the post…Apr 29, 19:23
    • Nae Need! on The Takeover: “@Yoonscum “The problem with that argument is it kind of ignores the actions of the current Scottish government Who have…Apr 29, 19:21
    • James Cheyne on The Takeover: “Further explanation for those whom are not aware, The Anglo – Irish treaty in 1801 was when the Westminster parliament…Apr 29, 19:05
    • James Cheyne on The Takeover: “And of course the treaty of union in particular mentions no other people in the treaty of union with England…Apr 29, 19:01
    • James Cheyne on The Takeover: “Hi james, That be a contentious point as Scots law was to remain separate. And by allowing Scotland to pass…Apr 29, 18:42
    • Aidan on The Takeover: “@James – laws passed by Holyrood are secondary legislation passed in accordance with the powers laid out in the Scotland…Apr 29, 17:44
    • Marie on The Takeover: “Kneecap shouldn’t have said what they said – doesn’t stop them from being on the right side of history though.Apr 29, 16:55
    • James Cheyne on The Takeover: “Alf. As a observation it is noted under the legal construction of Britain that only a Sovereign parliament can pass…Apr 29, 15:24
    • YOON scum on The Takeover: “After Indy Will yoons be allowed to voteApr 29, 15:10
    • James Cheyne on The Takeover: “Alf, What you state has become quite evident over recent years in as much that the treaty of union can…Apr 29, 14:57
    • James Cheyne on But No Cigar: “Rob. I think the same, A devolved Scottish parliament from Westminster should not be passing Scots laws. Two parliaments in…Apr 29, 14:38
    • Alf Baird on The Takeover: “Yes, one of the features of a colonial society and “its dependency psychology is that since no one can serve…Apr 29, 14:24
    • MaryB on The Takeover: “Oh, the double standards. The Green’s Maggie Chapman can abuse the judiciary and get let off, because the SNP need…Apr 29, 13:47
  • A tall tale



↑ Top