Polling quirks
We learned a couple of moderately interesting things today. One was the result of our politely pestering Sunday Mail editor Jim Wilson, who agreed to release the data tables from the paper’s poll earlier this month which showed a 20-point No lead.
The pollster who conducted the survey, Progressive Partnership, isn’t a member of the British Polling Council, which meant the Mail was under no obligation to make the data available, but the editor very kindly chose to anyway in the interests of transparency and they can be found here.
What they reveal is that PP neither asked, nor weighted its results for, respondents’ party affiliations. That isn’t necessarily any sort of smoking gun – the referendum isn’t a party issue, and it may be that the sample happened to be reflective of voter distribution anyway – but the one thing it DOES tell us is that comparing the results with a party-weighted YouGov poll (as “Better Together” did in a desperate attempt to present a major swing to Yes as one towards No) is a complete nonsense.
The other thing we found out today was more disturbing.
A concerned reader sent us a copy of an up-and-coming poll from one of the leading polling companies, the structure and wording of which they felt was engineered to elicit a specific response. We reproduce some of the questions below:
“5. Thinking more generally about the future of Scotland, which of these 3 options would you support the most?
a. keep the current arrangement of a Scottish Parliament with its existing powers
b. transfer more powers to the Scottish Parliament including tax and welfare, but excluding defence of foreign affairs.
c. Full independence for Scotland
6. In 2016 as a result of the Scotland 2012, a number of additional powers will be devolved to the Scottish Parliament, were you aware that this was going to happen?
Yes
No
7. Which of the following powers will be devolved to the Scottish Parliament in 2016 as a result of the Scottish Act 2012?
a. having responsibility for pensions and other benefits in Scotland
b. having a Scottish rate of income tax
c. having responsibility for Broadcasting in Scotland
d. Being able to change the national speed limit in Scotland
e. being able to issue its own financial bonds to provide money for investment in projects
f. being able to change the drink driving limits in Scotland
g. being able to borrow money for capital investment in projects such as; major roads, hospitals, schools and flood defences
8. Starting from 2016 the Scottish Parliament will have control of over 10% of its income tax revenue by being able to set a separate Scottish Income Tax rate.
The Scottish Government will also gain powers to raise money for large projects such as roads, schools hospitals and this includes the ability to issue its own bonds to help fund investments.
Other powers to be be devolved include taxation on land (stamp duty) and landfill tax and to vary drink driving and speed limits in Scotland.
Now that you are aware of these further powers will be available to the Scottish Parliament from 2016, will this influence how you will vote in the Referendum on the 18th of September?
Yes – I would be more likely to vote Yes
Yes – I would be more likely to vote No
Will not change how I am going to vote”
Now, we’re not professional psephologists, but it seems to us like those questions are designed to emphasise the extra powers coming to Holyrood and make a No seem more like a vote for “devo max”, rather than for the status quo that it really is. (Since those powers, while not yet all implemented, are already on the statute books.)
We’ll be keeping an eye out for the poll’s results (assuming that the leak is accurate, and should the results be published – we don’t know who commissioned it, although the only people who’ve been commissioning polls including a more-devolution option recently are “Better Together”), and for the spin that’s deployed on them.
I’d place good money that the responses to those questions will be used as a “People want a strong Scottish parliament within the healthy, strong and safe bosom of the UK”
Spectacular stuff. Who wrote the questions? Flipper, Bliar McDougal, BBC Pacific Quay.
Project Fear the life out of them, bullshit the suckers into believing they’re voting no for that BetterTogether devo safeness, security, sterling and bish bosh job done, as Nigel Farage might say.
I have concluded, the NO camp have 3 types of Scot.
1 – I dinnae like Alex Salmond, voting No.
2 – The ‘Yes’ campaigners are deluded ideologists with little grasp on the real world, I wouldn’t want to pay increased taxes.
3 – Independent nonsense, we are British and better together.
My take is simple and from the heart, Scottish not British.
Vote No for nought.
Vote YES and gain the world.
Good job Stu, at least we know yet another unionist poll means shite.
Divide and separate, confuse and conquer.
These questions seed doubt, steer information to tailor consent then make empty promises for imaginary political promises, oh, where have we seen that before?
Devo 79 cubed.
Make people believe voting No is really voting for promised Devo.
Really cynical tactics Manual 2 being prised open.
It will make not one bit of difference what they ask or what answers they get, the outcome will be a staggering blow to AS independence hopes..in my books a waste of time and energy..ignore…xxx
I take it Prof Poultice hasn’t scrutinised this one?
@ Dougie Bee, “It will make not one bit of difference what they ask or what answers they get” So why on earth are they bullshitting everyone like this, if you’re right Dougie? It must be costing someone a lot of money for such a futile thingee.
That’s push-polling, pure and simple. Zero credibility, and let’s hit it hard with that IF it’s published. And keep demanding they release the secret one they commissioned to tell them what’s really going on.
There is no ‘Devo-Max’ and the 2012 Scotland Act will be gutted if we vote ‘No.’ As will the Barnett Formula. The status quo is NOT on offer any more, it’s a choice between independence and collective punishment.
The Prof is too busy scrutinising council elections in England and his belly button fluff – correction, that was me!
@manandboy
The Guardian were fed information and stories on nutty/racist UKIP councillors and members by conservative central office on the specific agreement that they would not highlight the many tory figures and councillors who were just as crazy and racist.
This was confirmed by Private Eye and other sources.
As we can see that strategy simply did work. Nor did it work last May. The voters were intent on giving labour the tories, labour and the lib dems a kicking. Protest votes do not require a squeaky clean vehicle. Just an outlet.
These poll questions bring to mind Darling’s answers to the Hollywood Committee this week when asked whether the guaranteed powers statement on the Better Together ad was disingenuous or not
Obviously becoming the narrative for them for the rest of the campaign
Dougie Bee @5.26
I noticed some real bees in my garden today – they are attracted by the flowers.
Horse flies, in contrast, are attracted to horse manure and then basically spread it to everything they touch.
Just like Better Together, now defunct, and Vote No Borders.
Another day gone. A new day dawns. the referendums looming large, Goodbye Dave. Goodbye Ed. Goodbye Mr. Farage.
Oh boy, this is getting really wearisome. Can we please fast forward to 18 September and get this bloody thing finished once and for all.
The Vote No Borders ad aimed at young scots may well be laughably flimsy and trite but they are throwing some serious money at it by promoting it heavily on the likes of youtube and elsewhere on social media.
It’s about time the Yes campaign stepped up it’s efforts to reach that demographic, made some good campaign ads and pushed them hard on the same places.
If a No vote is for more powers then why did the Unionist parties fight so hard to prevent a more powers option in the referendum? Why are they unable to name just one extra power that is going to be devolved in the event of a No vote (see Sturgeon’s demolition of Carmichael, when he could not do this)? Oh yes, it is because it is a blatant con, and is just a re-run of 1979, when Alec Douglas Home promised us something better if we voted No, and we got 18 years of Tory industrial and society wrecking instead.
@ Barontorc, oftentimes, the journey’s the fun part Baron!
I realise it’s only a selection of questions,but seems low on words like ‘independence’ and ‘referendum’,and the mention of ‘powers’ at least 3 times tells us what side this is probably for.
Wondered when this would come up, isn’t this push polling? Lynton Crosby????
I wonder how many of us simply wish to live at home and follow mum’s rules?
Which of these will you get in 2016 if you vote NO ?
a. A new Mercedes car absolutely free.
b. A months holiday in the Seychelles all expenses paid
c.Your mortgage paid for the next 25 years.
d.Your grocery bills paid for 20 years
I understand Progressive used Yougov’s online panel for the poll. Yougov asked a very large sample (2235) of their ‘Scottish’ panel members country of birth recently. This was what they got relative to reality (2011 census).
74(-7.5%)% Born in Scotland (British Citizen)
21(+10.2)% Born in rUK / elsewhere (British citizen)
4(-3.6)% Non british citizens
So, people from the rUK (mainly England) are massively over represented with Scots respondents strongly under represented.
This could readily add 6-7 points to No and shave a good 5 off yes before we even get to PP weighting.
Chocolate teapot of a poll for absolute numbers. Trend is good though.
Wait, what? No party has made *any* statement on what, if any, powers will be devolved, to the best of my knowledge. Where did these promises come from?
The questions asked might convince some DKs that more powers will be given to the SG when in fact the opposite is going to happen.
O/T – but I was thinking that someone should be, as were speaking, writing a book of these moments in time ( this may be already happening )naming names, events, bias, the lies, deceit, cheating, slander etc, etc so that after the referendum, no matter the outcome, this moment in time will be preserved for ever and the names of those who set about trying to rob our Country of its Independence will be preserved in history, unable to be erased, so that future generations will know their names – AND LET THEM ALL NO ITS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW
@ Les Wilson – like this?
http://noborders.webridean.com/
Question 8 is unbelievably clunky. It seems specifically designed to produce a negative response and there a headline.
It isn’t desperately professional. I wonder who has commissioned this one?
Kudos to Jim Wilson – ‘twould be nice to see a bit more such goodwill right across the board.
An absolutely full-on push-poll
What about BBC Reporting Scotland tonight with the university research investment story. It is getting more like a party political broadcast for Better Together than a news programme.
Ian – I’ve just signed a 38 degrees petition ‘Enquiry into BBC bias regards Indy Ref’ – interested?
https://t.co/735Q8R8XiZ
Surely the headline result that’s spun is not going to be based on the answers to question 8? It’s not a leading question (ie. in itself suggestive of the answer), but it’s entirely loaded & unbalanced. It accentuates the ‘positives’ of more devo, with appealing references to spending on “schools”, “hospitals”. But nothing is said to the respondent about the positives of independence. Eg.:-
“Independence, on the other hand, would give Scotland full control over its own affairs such as taxation & spending, including control of North Sea oil revenues, defence & foreign affairs.
Now that you are aware of what both of what devolution & independence mean, are you more likely to vote yes, more likely no, or no change?”
Paula Rose says:
Paula, I have seen that one, originally had me going,wish the YES logo had been bigger though!
However, what I mean is the same format as their guys, very simple very short, about the same length but with OUR questions, ultimately taking the micky out of the hapless VNOB and BT campaigns,( that can’t be that difficult Lol ) but witty and cutting. Scots can do that very well.It could be used to combat their ads, especially if good enough to go viral.
I see what you did there with birds of a feather… nice 🙂
(Les Wilson dear, I don’t think anyone bothers with Vote Nob Orders anymore – are you going to the Glasgow meet-up on the 30th?)
Paula Rose says:
Paula I would love to, I would also have loved to go, and to have been to the other meetings, but I have two wee dogs 17 years old, both unwell, as I am on my own now and I cannot give them to anyone else to look after. It makes things impossible. I can get out max three hours at at time.
However, if there is ever a meeting in West Lothian it would be great to meet everyone Cheers
There is an important difference between voting yes or No.
If we vote Yes, what we think will be important.
if there is a No, it won’t matter what No voters or Yes voters think.
“If a No vote is for more powers then why did the Unionist parties fight so hard to prevent a more powers option in the referendum?”
Surely its obvious? Because if a devo max option was in the referendum it would have been in addition to the yes-no question, and ‘no’ would definitely have been the status quo and nothing more.
Now the no campaign can present devo max as only being obtainable via a no vote.
TJenny says:
Hi I have signed also, thanks!
O/T
Still seats left if you want them for next Fridays night out at the Counting house in Glasgow. For those who may not have seen this message before there is a 40 seater exective coach leaving from Brechin and taking in Arbroath, Dundee then Glasgow.
I do need to know numbers so please leve a message on Off Topic or drop me an email at thepnr@mailinator.com telling how many seats you need and where you want picked up.
The bus is FREE so don’t let cost put you off, I just want
people who read and support Wings to come. I hope it’s you.
(Les Wilson – honey we will be thinking of you and your wee dugs – a fine old age those canines have reached)
Paula Rose says:
Thanks Paula, if I can ever get to a meeting, I assure you I really do want to meet all you guys.
Thanks for your kind words. But onwards and upwards!
Seanair, The BBC also gave the projection for 2015 based on these results both with Scottish MP’S and without in both cases Westminster would have minority Labour Governments in either scenario they would have to do a deal to take power.
“If we vote Yes, what we think will be important.”
But I, and many other Scots, don’t think that we should form a currency union with rUK.
Despite that fact, if we vote yes the SNP are planning to force Scotland into a currency union before the next election, without giving any option for the people of Scotland to say what we think about that policy, and despite having no mandate to do so.
Likewise with EU and Nato membership.
The BBC are talking through a hole in their backside again. Labour is not going to win the majority of seats based on their performance in the English Council Elections
Read http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/
@ Liquid Lenny – it’s ‘an hole’ dear not ‘a hole’, we are fussy about that sort of thing here.
You should see this map from the Guardian.
Apparently Scotland and England are the UK, Wales is Wales and Ireland is Ireland and NI.
http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/interactive/2014/may/23/2014-english-local-elections-results-map-live
It’s an inevitable tactic that poll will be commissioned with bias built into the methodology, so the client gets the results they want to shout about.
You could say ‘fair enough’, they can spend their money as they wish. However, if the poll is used to deceive voters into choosing something they would otherwise not choose, then that’s totally undemocratic.
“Apparently Scotland and England are the UK, Wales is Wales and Ireland is Ireland and NI.”
But the map has both Scotland and England written on it, as well as Wales and NI.
You need to stop seeing a slight or a grievance in every single little thing.
Sorry – I cant see that.
Paula Rose says:
@ Liquid Lenny – it’s ‘an hole’ dear not ‘a hole’, we are fussy about that sort of thing here.
My understanding is you only use ‘an’ in front of silent ‘h’, not a pronounced ‘h’
A hotel
A holiday
A hole
A historic event
An honourably man
A humble man
An honest woman
And BTW I didn’t think it was either a slight or a grievance but a bit odd.
Honourable …. Damned IPad 🙂
Maybe I should have put asshole then every body would be clear about the meaning 🙂
@Duggie
But I, and many other Scots, don’t think that we should form a currency union with rUK.
Despite that fact, if we vote yes the SNP are planning to force Scotland into a currency union before the next election, without giving any option for the people of Scotland to say what we think about that policy, and despite having no mandate to do so.
Likewise with EU and Nato membership.
Are you a supporter of independence?
@ galamcennalath – darling, where I come from we only ‘ave silent aitches xx
Lanarkist says
“Devo 79 cubed.”
Quote of the day cubed.
@Duggie @liz – If you scroll the map up you can see Scotland and the England name is hidden behind the blue/red in the midlands. Also if you scroll down further there are lots of small, free independent nations apparently surviving and thriving without the succour of the UK.
Definitely “a hole” but believe it is “an hotel” either that or I got the belt for nothing 🙂
@ duggie
So are you going to vote no?
It’s an hotel, an hole, an holiday, an historic event, an honest woman, but a hootsmon.
The babel fish (like it) says
“That’s push-polling, pure and simple. ”
What?
like this you mean?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G0ZZJXw4MTA
@Paula Rose
It’s only “an” when the h-word is of French origin, as far as I understand.
So it’s a herring not an erring then?
Dorothy Devine says
“correction, that was me!”
Eeuugh!
what were you doing scrutinising council elections in England?
Correct lol
You seem to have forgotten what the referendum question is. Whether one favours the status quo or devo max is not being asked. In both cases the logical vote in the referendum is No.
Think we’re all UKIPed out today, not much enthusiasm to discuss what the politics in the UK has become.
Although we haven’t got the final results yet I’m looking forward to Sunday when we do, just the thought of a CON/UKIP coalition until 2020 will definitely put the wind up a fair few number of Labour supporters here in Scotland.
Run for the hills, the UKIP is coming!
Paul
Thanks, I didn’t see the BBC take on the situation after the 2015 GE. A minority Labour Government would probably be the worst case scenario for trying to negotiate more powers for Scotland.
I hope the YES campaign will make full use of this in the run up to the referendum.
@john king – I think Dorothy D was ‘scrutinising’ Prof Poultice’s belly button fluff
@ Paula Rose
It’s an ‘orrible grammar that you’re using.
It’s a horrible situation when digging a hole…
An ancient hole is a very old hole…
I’ve probably put my foot in this somewhere, clever Dick 😉
Seeing as how you are ALL O/T in grammatical pedantry anyway…
I hope you are all getting drunk and generous. A couple of worthwhile causes needing our support here:
Generation Yes: Reaching All of Scotland’s Youth
Young people from all over Scotland are making their voices heard. We want to reach all young people, and by donating to our campaign, you can help us do that.
http://tinyurl.com/pv75cvj
If you’ve watched the Live Independence broadcasts of @NaeFear @citizentommy @BizforScotland et al by our own Thistle PLEASE DONATE http://tinyurl.com/olt48ue
thepnr says
“Run for the hills, the UKIP is coming!”
The fear I have is the majority of the sheep will continue to graze in the glen and not see the tsunami coming. 🙁
Paula Rose says
“it’s ‘an hole’ dear not ‘a hole”
Maybe e’s an umble man 🙂
@X_Sticks – The Generation Yes can only be contributed to by credit card!, contributed to oor Kevin and will again before it runs out but why do they not use paypal? Mark’s ride to Rome was the same to begin but he added paypal on and have since contributed. Yes Scotland changed their donation page and removed the paypal option and I asked the Rev at the time and he assured that the paypal ‘cut’ is minimal.
I contribute to Yes through the shops now or by cheque but can’t contribute to Generation Yes through indiegogo without paypal option.
Ah need ma bed,
night all.
Yeah Croompenstein I don’t know why GY don’t have a paypal option. I’ll send them a tweet to ask them to get it.
@John – night John. Hope to see you next Friday, you won’t get an early night then!
You are absolutely right Rev, they are going to try to sell Devo Nano as Devo Max, this will be their ‘positive’ message which will also be their BIG LIE moment.
In their questions they are pretending that Devo Max exists, it is a tactic to try and get people thinking away from Independence as a real viable option. It’s Deal or No Deal, choose the YES Box (full fat Independence) and get all the goodies, choose the NO Box (I can’t believe it’s not Devo Max substitute) the empty one.
The carpetbaggers will do everything to convince the people they are being sold Devo Max and Sallybot at the BBC will trot out … ‘new poll suggests Scots would reject independence in favour of Devo Max’ and cue Dougiebot with smooth words and the snake oil… ‘our proposals will give the Scottish Parliament new significant powers …’
shower of shits.
It strikes me that the explanation for this poll is quite simple. It’s not a “poll” as such, but rather background research (presumably by the No campaign) to try and find out whether fuller knowledge of the devolved powers already enshrined in legislation would affect people’s voting preferences in the referendum. If the answer is yes, you can expect the No campaign to prioritise the issue.
So it’s not supposed to be impartial, any more than market research by Tesco’s is impartial, and I’m willing to take bets that the results of this “poll” will never be made public.
Rigged Polls, more UK government predictions of doom and gloom, Labour politicians and their media supporters, who prefer Tory /Ukip coalition rule to a Labour government in Scotland, plus cap in hand dependency academics are only part of the poorer together dirty tricks department over the next four months.
O/T But good news that the Glasgow School of Art has been saved and hopefully restored to its former glory.
Gerry Parker/Patrician/Silvertay Myself had another meeting
re Wings in at the Yes Strathclyde Park. Gerry will post
the time for another meeting before the event, anyone with
contacts with other Indy bodies if they could give us some
of their leaflets, we would hope to have a wide a variety
as possible, we will be at the CH2 next Frid.
CH2 Silvertay has donated 2 prizes for the raffle,so a big
thanks to him.
It will be a beautiful dawn on the 19th of Srptember – the h will frolic in the dew with the ll.
@Croompenstein – thanks for that I didn’t see it 1st time round.
Spread the word on Scotlands Independent Press:.
Read recently the only way to counter Soviet type propaganda is to give people something to read.
We need to get more people reading WoS,Newsnetscotland and Bella C. etc
Get your hands on Aye Right leaflets and distribute them.
Leaflet lists 14 pro indy web sites.
get leaflets at:
wingsoverscotland.com/…/
@Duggie
I posted this in ‘Stormy Weather’ having read your BTL comments. I’m reposting here, just in case you missed it. I’m trying to understand exactly what you expect to happen after a Yes vote.
‘I disagree, the whole point of independence is that it gives us more democracy and more say, it isn’t any sort of independence at all if its going to result in the SNP forcing us to accept their preferred version of it without a choice and without them having a mandate to do so.‘
What would you prefer, hiatus until independence day or the day after a yes vote, the dissolution of the Scottish government and an election called (is this even possible under present legislation) to elect a new Scottish government? In either case, you personally will probably not get the totality of what you desire/ espouse. Would either meet with your demand for ‘democracy’? If the latter and the SNP are elected to govern Scotland again, would you still claim democratic deficit (‘ SNP riding roughshod over the democratic rights of the Scottish people’)? Alternatively we could stand still until the next scheduled election for the Scottish parliament and have an even shorter time to negotiate.
I would suggest that a yes vote in the referendum gives the parliament of Scotland the ‘mandate’ required to negotiate on behalf of the voters of Scotland, you, from what I have read in this thread, would disagree, I may have misinterpreted your stance.
Given that the current government of Scotland is the SNP and Alex Salmond has said that the wider body politic would be invited to participate in any negotiations, in effect a negotiating team of national interest, rather than what is described in your posts as ‘the SNP forcing us to accept their preferred version’, surely this is not indicative of a dictatorial/ non-democratic party.
Given your apparent dislike of the EU option, what would be your plan to repatriate the thousands of EU citizens resident in Scotland and those Scots resident in other EU countries, what would be your solution to the barriers to trade which would ensue from such and exit? Is the solution to join EFTA, or would that be yet another undemocratic option, forced on the people of Scotland.
As an afterthought, although Scotland, as you have stated, is not a discrete member of the EU, every Scot is an EU citizen and can move freely within it’s boundaries, every company in Scotland can trade within the EU without trade barriers and to continue these freedoms ‘the status quo’, membership of the EU is essential.
@John King
Haha, yes, EXACTLY like that! I’ve been sharing that video around a bit myself. A perfect demonstration.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but is this poll SERIOUSLY trying to imply that the Scotland 2012 act offers ANY of those options? Because that’s certainly the way I read it: that the Scotland Act will deliver more powers, and this is a list of powers which those powers might be.
This is about as dishonest as saying “Scotland will be kicked out of the EU/will not be allowed to use the pound” – not “some SAY this,” but statement of fact.
This is insanity.
I did a really weird YouGov survey last week – first weird thing was it didn’t let me go “back” so I couldn’t screen grab the questions. It started by asking things like “should pensions be the same across the UK” and “should benefit payment be the same across the UK”(eh… aye) – I got suspicious when it then asked something like “should taxes raised from big business in London only be spent in London” (eh… naw) then it got right fishy with questions like “should tax from oil revenues only be spent in Scotland”, and “should pensions in Scotland be funded only from taxes raised in Scotland” (well… naw, no really – no at the moment). I answered within the current framework of power and not any possible future settlement – but I did fill in the “this is pish” box at the end explaining that and telling them that if I saw a report that my answers were in any way reported as supporting the status quo I’d be making a formal complaint pdq.
Can we do one of those too? Not for any worthwhile polling data, but in order to get our message out? Poll the Nos and Undecideds, tell them some of our most salient pro-Yes points (at least this ensures they’ll have to listen) and then ask if that’s changed their vote. 🙂