Wings Over Scotland

A photo-gallery of excited, enthusiastic Labour supporters at Dundee’s Caird Hall for the Scottish Labour conference and keynote speech by Ed Miliband this afternoon.

(All these pics are taken from live BBC web coverage. Most of them are during Miliband’s address, but a few were also shot in the 20 or so minutes of speeches immediately preceding it, featuring Jim Murphy and various others.)

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…to see Scottish Labour’s leader and deputy leader, Johann Lamont and Anas Sarwar (um, party positions not necessarily in that order) address a packed crowd at the party’s annual conference in Dundee today.

Hurry! They’re going fast! (Just don’t ask in which direction.)

It doesn’t, of course. (We have it on good authority that the old-school-Tory broadsheet considers the Islamic-fundamentalist terrorist organisation to be “a bit soft“ on homosexuality.) But as a headline, our statement is every bit as valid as the ridiculous one the paper has rather embarrassingly chosen to run on its front page today.

“SNP backs ‘devo-plus’ for independence vote”, hollers the once-august organ, possibly causing more naive readers to imagine that the SNP might have backed ‘devo-plus‘ for the independence vote. The marginally more wary would perhaps have been further persuaded by an opening paragraph which reads “The SNP wants the devo-plus option, which would see Holyrood take control of most taxes, included on the referendum ballot as an alternative to full independence.”

But of course, no such thing – or anything remotely close to it – has actually happened. Dig a few lines deeper and what you find is that some unnamed, unquoted “Nationalists” (who may or may not be in the SNP) have allegedly said that if “a strong body of opinion lines up behind devo-plus” (whatever that actually means), the Scottish Government might agree to include it on the referendum ballot.

(Despite the fact that on last night’s Newsnight Scotland, the proponents of devo-plus, including Jeremy Purvis and Tavish Scott, said that they didn’t want the option included in the vote at all. They want it to replace the status quo as the “No” choice.)

So to recap: some people who weren’t prepared to give their names have supposedly made comments which the paper has interpreted to mean that if certain vague conditions are met in the future something else might happen, in theory, despite that thing not being desired or supported even by the people who invented it. Quite the scoop for the Scotsman’s ace reporters – and for the high journalistic standards of the Scottish media as a whole – there, I’m sure we’d all agree.

There’s been a lot going on in Scottish politics since the start of the year. David Cameron’s intervention in the referendum debate in early January kickstarted a tumultuous outbreak of activity, and in the fevered frenzy of non-stop media analysis and speculation that’s erupted since then, everyone and their granny’s dog has had something to say about it. Well, nearly everyone.

Because one person has been conspicuous by their absence from the nation’s airwaves. Johann Lamont was elected leader of Scottish Labour just before Christmas (by an electorate whose precise size remains a secret) – timing ideally suited for her to hit the ground running and help to frame and shape the debate as it raged on the nation’s screens. But for some unknown reason, Labour have been incredibly reluctant to let her speak to the Scottish people.

Lamont appeared very briefly on Channel 4 News on January 9th to comment on Cameron’s interview on the Andrew Marr show the previous day. Since then, this blog has been unable to locate a single TV interview given by the Labour leader (other than at First Minister’s Questions) in almost two months. Dozens of episodes of Scotland Tonight, Newsnight Scotland, Sunday Politics Scotland and more have come and gone without Lamont’s input, while her ostensible deputy (Westminster MP Anas Sarwar) has been ubiquitous, making (at least) half-a-dozen visits to the BBC and STV studios.

Almost any significant figure you can think of in Scottish politics (and plenty of pretty insignificant ones too) has been on TV more than Lamont during this critical period. Alex Salmond, Nicola Sturgeon, John Swinney, Michael Moore, Ruth Davidson, Ken McIntosh, Margaret Curran, Patrick Harvie, Humza Yousaf, Stewart Hosie, Derek Mackay, even Lord Wallace of Tankerness have all logged more airtime.

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Something’s been puzzling us recently. So far as we can tell, every political party in Scotland now supports the transfer of more powers to the Scottish Parliament. The SNP clearly does, but all of the opposition parties are also now insisting that they want to improve the devolved settlement over and above the limp Scotland Bill currently staggering its way through Westminster.

We know the Lib Dems in both Holyrood and Westminster are in favour of more powers, because no less a figure than the Scottish Secretary told us so:

“The alternative is not the status quo, it’s actually about deciding what other powers Scotland should have within the UK.“

We had confirmation yesterday that Labour in the UK (along with Scottish Labour) also want more than the status quo, in the words of Alastair Darling:

“I don’t think that anybody would argue that the status quo, what we have at the moment, is satisfactory. The settlement reached in 1998 is not what we want at the moment, we need to move on from that.“

And of course, for the Tories, the Prime Minister himself has made his position clear (albeit that he had to humiliate the leader of the Scottish Conservatives to do it):

“And let me say something else about devolution. This doesn’t have to be the end of the road. When the referendum on independence is over, I am open to looking at how the devolved settlement can be improved. And yes, that means considering what further powers could be devolved.“

So that’s all just grand. We have that rarest of political beasts, a true cross-party consensus: everyone (except poor Ruth Davidson, who we suspect is in the process of urgently revising her opinion) agrees that the Scottish Government should have more powers. But what we don’t understand is why these powers are all conditional on a No vote in the independence referendum.

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The man who seems to rapidly be becoming the de facto leader of the No campaign gave a fascinating interview on The Sunday Politics at the weekend. Increasingly flustered under persistent questioning from Isobel Fraser, Alastair Darling repeatedly asserted that the Union as it currently stands is a busted flush. But weirdly, time and again he demanded that the Scottish people bet everything on it anyway.

In our specially-commissioned illustration above, the Ace (quite naturally) represents independence. It’s normally the best card, but of course that rather depends what the other one is, and if you’ve ever played blackjack you’ll know that only an idiot would make their decision with only one of the cards showing. But for some unfathomable and inexplicable reason, we’re being asked to throw all our chips onto the table blind.

The former Chancellor was pretty unequivocal about his view of the present constitutional arrangements, and he claimed to speak for everyone else too:

“I don’t think that anybody would argue that the status quo, what we have at the moment, is satisfactory.” (35.04)

“The settlement reached in 1998 is not what we want at the moment, we need to move on from that.” (38.58)

That seems pretty clear, then. But bizarrely, this unsatisfactory state of affairs is what Darling wants the people of Scotland to vote for in the most important decision they’ll take in 300 years. Irrationally, Darling doesn’t want to improve the nature of the Union until AFTER people have decided whether they want to stay in it or not. Eh?

The MP for Edinburgh South West was very firm on the timing. Over and over, as Fraser pointed out the strangeness of the position, he stuck to the story – the Union is rubbish, but rather than fix it with better devolution over the next two and a half years and THEN ask people whether they want to stay in it or not, we should rush to a referendum much sooner (in 2013), vote No to independence, and then trust a Tory government in Westminster to hand Scotland more powers out of the goodness of its heart, now that we’d given up all possibility of leverage in any negotiations.

If this guy is the Union camp’s Great White Hope, we’re ordering bunting.

So was that it? The Unionist media is briefing hard that David Cameron finally laid out the fabled “positive case for the Union” in Edinburgh this week. You can judge the positivity or otherwise for yourself by reading the full text of his speech (which was far more delicately-judged than his previous clodhopping intervention, but still contained the traditional doom-laden warnings of “danger”, terrorist attack, banking collapse and so on) here, but whether the message was positive or not, the one thing it certainly wasn’t was a case for the Union.

Cameron listed a fairly impressive set of reasons why Scotland was great (even managing to cite Keir Hardie through what must have been gritted teeth). He explained why the past was great, because in it the UK had forged great institutions like the NHS (which is already an entirely separate and fully-devolved body in Scotland) and a “generous” welfare state – both of which his government is now dismantling as fast as it humanly (and inhumanly) can. And he hinted at a great future, in which Scotland would enjoy greater devolved powers and responsibilities.

The problem is, the referendum will be a straight choice not between independence and a possible imaginary Union of the future, but between independence and the Union we have now. (Cameron is unequivocal on this, insisting that his hypothetical vision of a more devolved Scotland within the United Kingdom isn’t actually offered to the Scottish people, but left entirely in the trust of Westminster.) And for THAT Union, Cameron made no case at all. Indeed, it could plausibly be argued that he all but explicitly abandoned it.

It’s hard to construct any sort of plausible justification for the Prime Minister’s refusal, when repeatedly challenged by journalists after the speech, to outline the specific devolution proposals which might be negotiated or acknowledge any need for a democratic mandate for them. Cameron has two years in which he could, if he wished, put together an “enhanced devolution” package which could go on the ballot paper. That’s plenty of time, especially given that the Unionist parties have already had a  two-year head start while working on the Calman Commission and Scotland Bill. So why is he so implacably opposed to the idea?

It seems unlikely that the Scottish electorate will fall for such a flimsy pig in a poke. They have, after all, been here before (as the SNP will be sure to constantly remind them), and the vague implied promises of some sort of possible jam tomorrow will carry no more weight for also coming from the hopelessly discredited mouths of Nick Clegg and Michael Moore. (And less still if Labour join in, should they somehow get so far as managing to develop a policy at all.)

David Cameron didn’t make the positive case for the Union on Thursday. He made a case for a positive version of the Union. It’s a version which exists only in abstract conceptual form and which the Prime Minister will neither describe nor commit himself to. (And indeed, one which he may be in no power to honour even if he wanted to, given that by the time the referendum is over a UK general election will loom a matter of months over the horizon.)

It is, in other words, a con trick – a honey trap, built with sugar-sweet words and little else. The Scottish people were badly stung 33 years ago. We suspect this time it’s Cameron who will come unstuck.

A possible sighting coming up later today, readers, according to The Scotsman. Keep your eyes and ears peeled, this could be the big one.

“David Cameron will today make a passionate plea to save the United Kingdom when he travels to Scotland to warn that ‘our shared home is under threat from the SNP. The Prime Minister will make what his office says is a positive case for the Union.“

We’re standing by.

Word has reached us that today Willie Rennie, the leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, has allowed himself to be photographed holding an oversized pledge card he’s signed, promising to back equal marriage rights for homosexuals.

We’re sure that he’ll uphold the proud traditions of Lib Dems signing oversized pledge cards, and that equal marriage rights for gays are now definitely a done deal as a result. Because if there’s one thing we all know for sure in this uncertain world, it’s that once a Lib Dem has signed an oversized pledge card, there’s no going back.

Seriously, did nobody tell him or something?

This is Scottish Secretary Michael Moore in The Times (Saturday 11th February 2012, paywall link), in an interview widely interpreted as a pledge to move forward with greater devolution for Scotland should the country vote No to independence in 2014:

“The central point is to let Scotland decide whether it’s part of the part of the United Kingdom or not.  I’m confident it will say ‘we are’. Then we can work through the detail of what the next stages of devolution will be… The referendum is the start of the conversation, not the end.”

This, on the other hand, is Scottish Secretary Michael Moore, quoted by the Telegraph on the 22nd of December 2010 on the subject of the coalition government:

“Tuition fees [are] the biggest, ugliest, most horrific thing in all of this. I signed a pledge that promised not to do this. I’ve just done the worst crime a politician can commit, the reason most folk distrust us as a breed. I’ve had to break a pledge and very, very publicly, in what is a car crash, train wreck, whatever metaphor one wishes to put in terms of the politics of this, and it is deeply damaging to my party, to me individually and lots of others.”

Far be it from us to suggest that Mr Moore’s promises literally aren’t worth the paper they’re signed on. We don’t need to, because he’s just told you that himself. You’ll have to make your own mind up how far you trust him to deliver more powers to the Scottish Parliament if you decide to leave those powers in the hands of Westminster.

But when you’re doing that, be crystal clear on how things will stand in 2014 – a No vote is a vote for the status quo. Anything after that depends on the honesty of liars.

It’s nearly always nice to get a surprise, and a couple certainly came our way from the mainstream press and blogosphere today when two of the most diehard Unionists in the field had sudden rushes of blood to the head, threw off the reins and revealed what they really thought. First up was Kevin McKenna in the Observer, who in his frustration at his FUD comrades presenting Alex Salmond with an endless series of open goals let slip this, in contravention of the constantly-expounded party line:

“There is a growing sense in this country that we must be allowed to become the masters of our own destiny, for good or for ill, and free from any Westminster interference. This has been reflected by significant increases in support for independence, two-and-a-half years before the event, in every opinion poll since the die was cast last month.”

Kevin will be getting his wrists slapped by Unionist Central on Monday, we’re certain – the official policy is that support for independence is stalled at either a quarter or a third of the electorate, depending how hardline you are. Admitting that it’s on the rise at all – far less significantly so – will doubtless have Mr McKenna in hot water, but it pales beside the weekend’s other great “Whoops, did I say that out loud?” moment.

That appeared on the blog of Labour activist and media commentator Ian Smart, talking about his appearance on today’s Sunday Politics, and the cat he let out of the bag was one concerned with this blog’s favourite urban myth, the positive case for the Union. Because what Ian did was give away the poorly-kept secret that Johann Lamont, Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg, Willie Rennie, Michael Moore, Ruth Davidson and David Cameron and all the others are lying through their teeth when they constantly promise to make said case. Quoth Ian:

“There is no need to make a “positive case for the Union”. We know, for good or ill, what the Union entails. There is simply the need to make a case against “Independence”.”

We can’t exactly affect surprise at this revelation. After all, we’ve been tracking promises of the “positive case” ranging back 32 years, without a single actual sighting of it. But Smart’s unguarded moment is no less depressing for its confirmation, because it tells us that Labour plan a scorched-earth strategy for the independence debate. They will happily destroy Scotland to keep it in the Union, by running a campaign based on fear, distortion and outright lies with no thought for the state that will leave the country in after the referendum, whether the vote is Yes or No.

Two and a half years of unrelenting, poisonous negativity can only have a hideously toxic effect on the entire body politic of Scotland, because for a negative campaign to win it must catastrophically undermine the confidence of the Scottish people in their ability to run their own country successfully. (Because if you DO believe you can do that, why on Earth would you ever let the voters of another nation impose on you governments and ideologies you consistently reject?)

Bewilderingly, and infinitely depressingly, Smart believes that independence supporters want Unionists to campaign positively only as some sort of trick, that it’s a trap we’re luring our unwary opponents towards. But in fact it’s because whichever way Scotland votes in autumn 2014, we’d like to move forward as a nation that hasn’t been torn in two by years of vicious infighting, bitterness and dirty trickery.

We’re not at all sure we’d like to live in Ian Smart’s future Scotland even if it did vote for independence. Such a divided country – set implacably against itself like an Old Firm derby writ large, and crushed by an inferiority complex – would be a dark, benighted place. But maybe that grotesque vision is exactly what Smart and his Unionist allies want – to tell the Yes camp that even victory would be Pyrrhic, the winners inheriting nothing but ashes and ruins. For such a despicable worldview and strategy we hold nothing but contempt. But we’re glad to see that at least it’s finally out in the open.

There are some stories which persist long after they’ve been debunked, a recent example being Joan McAlpine’s supposed accusation that anyone opposing the SNP was “anti-Scottish”. However many times it was shown that she didn’t say any such thing, however often she explained what she HAD said, the lie kept being perpetuated (and will doubtless continue to be in the coming months and years) by people who knew full well it wasn’t true, because it suited their agenda to do so.

The notion that Scotland is massively subsidised by England is another such political legend, and we don’t imagine for a second that this story from today’s Sunday Times will stop the endless stream of idiots on the Telegraph, Mail and Express (both above and below the line) from continuing to assert it at every opportunity.

But at least now you can handily link them to the actual facts, even if they don’t want to hear them. The full article can be read below.

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