Hopeless times
Sitrep: we’ve given up any hope of turning on the television and seeing a politician – any politician – telling the truth.
Boris Johnson is lying about negotiating a new deal with the EU. Jeremy Corbyn is lying about pretty much everything (in so far as he even knows what he wants the truth to be, let alone what it actually is). Jo Swinson is lying about wanting to meaningfully work with other parties to stop Brexit. Nicola Sturgeon is lying about wanting to stop a no-deal Brexit – she just wants to stop Brexit full stop.
(Unfortunately, this also means she’s lying about having any real intention of holding a second independence referendum before 2021. If she did, she wouldn’t have all her MPs and MSPs frantically running around parliaments and courtrooms trying to destroy her own democratic mandate for it, which would leave her needing to secure a fresh one 20 months from now. And assuming she’d have any more idea how to put it into practice than she has with the ones she’s already got.)
The government is lying about the fact that it doesn’t have confidence in itself, and the opposition is lying about the fact that it does. Everyone now says they want an election, but somehow it isn’t happening because nobody wants it yet, and nobody can agree when they DO want it, and they’re all lying about why.
And absolutely everyone is lying about the fact that whatever they’re trying to do right now has any chance of solving the present shambles. Johnson is just stalling to run the clock down until no-deal, although he swears blind that he isn’t, and the opposition just wants to drag the whole agony out for several more months with not the slightest clue what they’d actually do then.
Grimly, the closest thing that British voters currently have to an honest man is Nigel Farage, who is at least clear about what he wants and what he’s prepared to do to get it. Which is ironic, as he’s only anywhere near getting it because he’s spent his entire political career lying through his teeth about it.
We don’t mind telling you, folks, it’s been pretty hard to get up in the mornings.
When we’ve managed it, though, we’ve spent the last couple of days unsuccessfully trying to find out the answer to a question.
Because let’s imagine that the opposition bill to “block” no-deal Brexit passes later today, as it almost certainly will, and that the government’s second attempt to dissolve Parliament and call an election fails on Monday (as is also almost certain). Johnson would then be obliged to ask the EU for yet another Brexit extension at the meeting of the European Council in mid-October.
But what if he didn’t? What if he resigned as Prime Minister (but stayed leader of the Conservative Party)? Who would become PM? There’s no deputy and therefore no automatic process, and we know that Parliament can’t agree on an alternative or we’d already have one. The Tories and probably the Lib Dems aren’t going to put Corbyn in and Corbyn isn’t going to step aside.
There appears to be no mechanism in the UK’s infamously unwritten constitution to deal with this scenario. We’ve seen numerous other people ask the question and fail to come up with an authoritative answer.
(Plenty of people who don’t actually know anything about anything are willing to say what they IMAGINE would happen, but none of it has any sort of basis in fact or law.)
There would be no PM but the government wouldn’t actually have fallen. There’d have been no confidence vote and no vote to bypass the Fixed Term Parliaments Act and hold an election. The UK would be speeding fast towards the no-deal cliff with no-one driving the bus at all.
Or what if Johnson stayed in office but simply refused to do anything? Or what if he trundled along nonchalantly until mid-October and then just didn’t obey Parliament’s instruction? What if he exchanged pleasantries about cricket and the weather with the EU but didn’t actually ask for an extension? He did, after all, tell the nation yesterday that he’d “rather be dead in a ditch” than do so.
At that point there’d only be two weeks left until the deadline – not nearly enough time for an election. The opposition would have to do something it’s been utterly unable to do until now: agree on who to get to take over.
And what if they did? That person would carry no authority whatsoever. To become PM they’d have had to agree to call an election more or less immediately after securing the extension – currently the official position of all the opposition parties – and that means the EU would be dealing with someone whose word was a meaningless irrelevance and would cast them into renewed prolonged uncertainty.
There’s not a chance in hell that the opposition alliance – including the SNP, Labour, Lib Dems and rebel Tories – would be able to make any pact stick in such an election. They don’t want even remotely the same things. Tory rebels don’t want a Labour government for the next five years, under Jeremy Corbyn or anyone else. Nor does Jo Swinson, who’s more Tory than most of the Tory rebels (and indeed much of the Tory government). The Unionist parties won’t give the SNP another indyref, and the SNP would rightly be crucified by their own supporters if they did a deal without one.
(Although, regretfully, we’ve arrived at a stage where we can’t with any confidence rule out the SNP, now apparently a single-issue stop-Brexit party, doing it anyway.)
And of course, no matter what the parties might agree to do, the voters are another matter entirely. God alone knows what Labour voters in the great swathe of Leave-voting seats in the north of England would make of it all. Not a single poll has ever suggested that those areas have changed their minds since 2016.
In those circumstances, the hard-Brexiteers currently in control of the Conservative Party would have been backed into a corner and would have little choice – even if they wanted one – but to campaign on a no-deal platform or be slaughtered by the Brexit Party. Either way the no-dealers would very likely win against an opposition impossibly divided among itself.
(Can you imagine Jo Swinson standing down in her East Dunbartonshire seat to give the SNP a free run? Of course not. But if she and the other three Lib Dem MPs in Scotland didn’t stand aside, what would the SNP be getting out of any pact? Can you see Swinson promising them a second indyref? Hardly.)
The closest thing the opposition has to a strategy is a wildly improbable Hail Mary shot whereby the Brexit vote is more divided than the Remain vote and they somehow get a government into power that can enact a second EU referendum without granting a second Scottish one, kicking independence down the road until at least 2025.
(Because let’s say Jeremy Corbyn was being truthful when he said he wouldn’t block one, which is a pretty big “if” to start with. At the very BEST he’s going to be running a weak multi-party coalition which would need the votes of the Lib Dems and at least some Tories to pass indyref2 legislation. There isn’t a snowball’s chance of that.)
They need a whole series of miracles to come off one after another, and even then all they’d get would be another referendum – one which nobody knows the options in, and which would in any event be a farce in which nobody on either side would be able to believe that the result would be honoured.
Wings called all this, of course. We pointed out two and a half years ago that Theresa May was absolutely out of her mind to call a needless snap general election, and we accurately predicted the chaos that would follow.
And we’re calling it now. No good can come of anything that’s likely to happen this week. There’s now only one sane course of action, a bad choice that’s less bad than any of the others – pass the Withdrawal Agreement.
It respects the result of the referendum, but in a way that keeps most of the benefits of EU membership indefinitely (because the Irish Question has no imminent solution, and the backstop which basically keeps us in the single market and the customs union will persist forever). It avoids most of the catastrophic consequences of no deal. It retains the Scottish Government’s mandate for a new indyref. And it would probably destroy the Tories AND the Brexit Party.
(Because most of the Tory vote would be furious, but their rebels could justify it as the least-worst option and as giving them time to recover, and the Brexit Party would be furious but would have to maintain their fury for two and a half years while having nothing to actually campaign for because we’d already be out of the EU. What would their platform be? “Vote for us, we’ll make everything much worse out of pure spite”?)
(As for whether the government could in fact survive until 2022, it would of course be enormously weak for the rest of its term, but protected by the FTPA. We’re not sure the electorate would thank any party that triggered a vote of no confidence and a general election that would throw everything back up in the air just when total disaster had been averted and the worst political mess in British history had finally been – albeit imperfectly – solved. A period of enforced consensus politics might be just what the doctor ordered.)
But that isn’t going to happen.
It’s not going to happen because every MP in the House Of Commons is lying to you, readers. Every last one of them, without exception, and Scotland and the UK are both going to suffer dreadfully for their mendacious, reckless, self-centred incompetence.
We don’t know what we do about that.
Hopeless times until we’re a normal independent country
Well, Nicola Sturgeon has said on many occasions she doesn’t want Brexit at all, also Ian Blackford in the Commons has repeated that, so Wings is lying about that
My My
Forgive my ignorance:
Is it possible the EU would just say we’re not accepting no-deal Brexit, we are extending Article 50 indefinately till you sort yourselves out?
I believe you are way off target with your assertion that Nicola Sturgeon is lying about her intentions for a second referendum. She is on it and her patient strategy is paying off.
I was under the impression that Kinnock’s son put in an amendment which passed because of no “tellers” provided by govt to count votes?
Doesn’t that mean that when the current “Stop Boris” bill becomes law then so does the “Theresa May” A50 agreement?
I’m hugely confused 🙂
Dr Jim said “Well, Nicola Sturgeon has said on many occasions she doesn’t want Brexit at all, also Ian Blackford in the Commons has repeated that, so Wings is lying about that
My My”
I say Wings isn’t lying about that:
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7433239/Labours-Stop-Boris-deal-SNP-push-General-Election-NOVEMBER.html
Haever,
The power to cancel A50 rests with the lawful government of the UK, not with the EU – they cannot do that for us. They can extend, if we ask them, but they cannot ‘keep us in against our will/or better judgement’.
Hope that helps answer your question.
I’ve been watching most of the News and some Parliament tv and I’m sure most, if not all MPs are actually enjoying the confusion and lies. They get on the tv more than usual, lots of chat with their pals from their own and other parties and it gives them something to do and be busy.
I remember reading in Alan Clarks diaries in the eighties about how boring every day life in Westminster is and he would dream of being back at Saltwood Castle or his Sutherland sheep farm.
I wonder what would happen if Boris went off long term sick as in any other job? Who takes over or does his desk fill with paperwork until he returns?
SNP’s position is very clear Ian Blackford repeats it in Westminster every week. Nicola Sturgeon emphasised Independence yesterday.
Stuck now waiting for Westminster SNP must play the Westminster game. Right now Boris and his Tories are on the ropes, If the SNP changed their position from leaving with a deal to not leaving at all, SNP’s true position this would alter the vote to the Tories advantage, do we want that, SNP must wait until the ink is dry on the we are out form before making the Independence move. Time is still on the SNP’s side.
@ Heaver 1:36 pm :
“Is it possible the EU would just say we’re not accepting no-deal Brexit, we are extending Article 50 indefinately till you sort yourselves out?”
No for both political and financial reasons.
That sort of kick the can approach is fine in Eastern Europe but this fiasco has already cost a lot of money in the EU countries with large trade flows to the UK. Unlike the UK they have prepared for Brexit (even a “soft one”) and that costs money.
Politically there’s a lot of MEPs waiting to take up the places they were elected to as the UKs MEP allocation was redistributed. Hence Alyn Smith desperately trying to become an MP :/
So the tl;dr is No.
PS if no party wants the Prime Ministers job the Queen can force the issue, failing that I shall go down and do it . . Sorted.
The SNP are doing the EU’s dirty work, even at the cost of our independence referendum, perhaps they have cut a deal for further down the road, but for now its brexit damage limitation for the benefit of the EU.
Good article Stu.
I’m really annoyed that you’ve just said “The Unionist parties won’t give the SNP another indyref”.
The Unionist parties must give us, the Scottish people, a referendum because we have a right under international law to have a referendum. This Section 30 order “agreement” thing is a red herring. It isn’t “permission” and it isn’t optional. International law makes fulfilling that constitutional protocol a legal requirement incumbent on whatever party or coalition comprises the UK government.
We lose democratic laws which protect us if/when we come out of the EU even with the Withdrawal Agreement.
Holyrood would be shut or stripped – whichever was most convenient for them.
They are still desperate to keep the people of Scotland away from the Ballot box.
The things that are getting clearer by the day for non political anoraks like ourselves, is that Westminster Government is a shambles, and the Unionist parties cannot be trusted with ‘Britain’ they are now full on English Nationalists.
The leadership of the SNP have gone for the ‘compromise’ on Brexit EU membership. Perhaps its time they offer the Scottish Electorate a compromise Referendum on DevoMax. So we can negotiate our own EU membership and are in effect Sovereign.
A thought anyway.
After Brexit all the unionists will be dealing with the myriad problems, the job losses, the lack of trade deals and the recriminations.
In contrast, the independence movement will offer the clear and positive message of independence and getting back in the single market.
@Neil MacKenzie 1:54pm
100% correct
@ Neal MacKenzie (1:54pm)
How come the Catalonian election wasn’t official then? I am just asking as I have no idea myself.
Hopeless was 19th September, 2014 for a lot of folk. I’d guess on that day the future looked to be nothing but black… and for a lot longer than five years.
There is always hope.
Well, aren’t you just a regular Mary Sunshine? I’m thinking of that scene at the end of Independence Day II, where the sky is, quite literally, falling, the end of the world is ACTUALLY upon us, but the old guy, played by Judd Hirsch, tells everybody, “have a little faith”.
Sorry, it’s the best I could come up with.
Actually the Brexit Party would have something to campaign for – an Independent England out of both the EU and the UK.
The Withdrawal Agreement (if passed) will be between the UK and EU – and if England wasn’t in the UK anymore it could sail off unfettered into the sunset as it seems to want to do…that’s a win win for just about everybody else.
Spot on Rev…… Nothing more needs said!
Stu,
you and Wings have been an invaluable source of information, commentary and criticism in support of independence. I have contributed to this and I hope you continue, as no-one else is doing as good a job. However, there is one nagging worry in my mind: your idea to create a “Wings” party to fight the next Holyrood election. While I am not against new pro-indy parties per se, I worry that doing this would make you (necessarily) partisan and thus less favourable towards other pro-indy parties, particularly the SNP. I already see criticism of the SNP from you and cannot be certain whether this is genuine for the sake of independence, or is intended to built support for your own party, or to test the waters in deciding whether to set it up.
That’s one worry. Aside from being less friendly towards the SNP, I also worry that Wings the website would become less popular, become less trusted/cited and enjoy far lower funding if people see you as opposition to the SNP. If you are competing with the SNP, would SNP voters still read and distribute your next Wee Book? Or would they see it as opposition literature? Would they still contribute to your fundraisers? You are doing a great job here and I do not want to see Wings decline in effectiveness for the next referendum for the sake of one or two MSPs.
My view of our political landscape does adapt to circumstances, but these have been my thoughts on the subject for the past few weeks. I hope you find them useful, for what they are worth.
And yet, mysteriously, Stephen kinnocks amendment for a new vote on the withdrawal agreement was passed because no tellers were present at the vote. Could be deep state making the decision that the politicians can’t.
I’ve recently been thinking that I could probably turn the internet off for a couple of years (which might do me some good tbh), and turn it back on, and everything would just be the same.
@Normski,
I think the fundamental difference between Scottish Nationalism and English Nationalism, is that the Scottish version wants the people of Scotland to run Scottish Affairs.
English Nationalism is about the English and England running the affairs of other countries, and always putting England first, second and last.
Farage is well aware of the wealth of Scotland and how much England needs it. There will never be a movement in England for independence from Scotland – quiet words will be spoken into thick ears of those who propose it.
I agree 100% with every word of this, it really is soul destroying that we have Johnson in Scotland fighting to save the union while we have the SNP in Westminster fighting for the same thing.
Unhappily,the reality is we’re part of the UK still, and as such the SNP are forced into continuing defending our EU membership, as we told them in 2016.
We knew this was a charade then, and so it remains.
The end goal stays the same.
Nobody seems immune from being driven to distraction by ‘events’, ffs i’m not having good mornings either, but i’m heartened by the near inevitability of an imminent GE.
At this point, the charade ends. It better!
I wish I didn’t think that you’re right.
Maybe I should have added and many in the movement are blinkered to the facts.
“Well, Nicola Sturgeon has said on many occasions she doesn’t want Brexit at all”
Um, maybe take another swing at reading the article.
The best advice about war is “Don’t be there!” So while the Withdrawal Agreement solution is mad, it is the only option that appears likely to stop citizens of John Bull’s other island – north and south – being blown to bits.
Of course, it will also stop residents of London being blown to bits, given that the IRA won their war by their attacks on the UK’s money stealing centre, the City, which persuaded the UK elite that “negotiating with terrorists” was, in fact, not off the table. “Won” in the sense that they forced the UK elite to negotiate and to reach and implement an agreed solution in the Good Friday Agreement. Not in the military “win or lose” sense.
CITY OF LONDON BOMBS
“Why is there peace in Ireland? The Japanese did it. No, really!”
“Japanese bankers of the late twentieth century appear to have completely lost their father’s ‘WW2-British-prisoners-samurai-decapitating-and-inhuman torture’ spunk. That, or they didn’t see why they should be cannon-fodder for Her Majesty’s Empire-lite to sacrifice in the continuing domestic spat with their former colonial doormat. In fact, rather sanely, the Japanese threatened to decamp to the Continent — and mortifyingly for the British, to Britain’s eternal enemy Germany — taking their banks and business with them.”
See comment “City of London Bombs” by “BlottoBonVismarck”, April 27th at 3.01 pm, a comment to
”IRA VS AL Qaeda: I Was Wrong’, by Gary Brecher aka ‘The War Nerd’ – 27th, April 2011 – The Exiled –
– http://exiledonline.com/wn-38-ira-vs-al-qaeda-i-was-wrong/
Personallly I’d call not being blown to bits really quite hopeful, but, hey, that’s just me. Why be blown to bits today what can be put off until tomorrow ? !!
Though some of my fellow residents’s of John Bull’s other island have just about had it with the about-to-be-renewed “depravity” of the UK’s treatment of its former colonial doormat. You might expect them if it’s No Deal.
– Chris O’Dowd: ‘The idea that the British government won’t f*** us over is laughable’, by Stuart Jeffries, 5th October 2019 – Irish Times –
– https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/tv-radio-web/chris-o-dowd-the-idea-that-the-british-government-won-t-f-us-over-is-laughable-1.4008944
So. Mad vs War. Choices, choices.
MORE
See comments by “Ex Pat” to “New Media Futures”, by John O’Dowd, 5th October 2016 – Bella Caledonia –
– https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2016/10/05/new-media-futures/
“Right now Boris and his Tories are on the ropes, If the SNP changed their position from leaving with a deal to not leaving at all, SNP’s true position this would alter the vote to the Tories advantage”
What part of “STOP BREXIT” do you think means “leaving with a deal”?
What happens is that there is a vote of no confidence in parliament. De Piffle is defeated. The Queen sends for Corbyn who can’t form a government, but the discussions means that say Ken Clark comes out as the proposed PM as he has the support of the majority of the HoC.
He forms a government which governs until there is an election / Referendum in the spring.The SNP will give confidence and supply, and with luck get a section 30 order out of it. (we can’t have an election in November, try it)
This is simply what the “Constitution” sets out.
I think the article is 100% accurate,especially in regard to Sturgeon……….That’ll be the hate mail starting then?
Re honestly ? possibly Ken Clark?
“PS if no party wants the Prime Ministers job the Queen can force the issue”
Yeah, that’s the kind of no-answer answer people have been giving. What does it MEAN? Who does she pick? On whose say-so?
“What happens is that there is a vote of no confidence in parliament. De Piffle is defeated. The Queen sends for Corbyn who can’t form a government, but the discussions means that say Ken Clark comes out as the proposed PM as he has the support of the majority of the HoC.”
I don’t think you’ve read the article.
The situation is that the government already plans a VoNC. It’s going to be defeated. The opposition’s entire current plan, openly stated, is to force him to stay in office.
“I’m really annoyed that you’ve just said “The Unionist parties won’t give the SNP another indyref”.
The Unionist parties must give us, the Scottish people, a referendum because we have a right under international law to have a referendum.”
Then I suggest you go and explain that to them, because they seem to be unaware of it.
I had a vague feeling that the Leader of the House might be the default replacement, but that seems only to apply during Prime Minister’s Questions (and even then it’s optional):
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader_of_the_House_of_Commons)
So, not an answer to the question, but possibly a lucky escape, given the incumbent.
Wings says….’Nicola Sturgeon is lying about wanting to stop a no-deal Brexit – she just wants to stop Brexit full stop’
On GMS yesterday Nicola Sturgeon said ‘ I want to stop Brexit full stop, but first we must stop a no deal from happening’.
The complete opposite of what you claim.
I’m definitely sceptical about the SNP leadership’s plan. That said, I’m trusting that they do have a plan and have some idea what they’re doing. That’s not going to stop me criticising them.
“The complete opposite of what you claim.”
WHO did she say she wanted to stop Brexit for? Scotland or the whole UK? If it’s the latter she should resign, because (a) she has no writ to interfere in the business of the UK government, and (b) her job is to secure independence for Scotland, and her mandate to do that is currently dependent on Brexit happening.
If it was the former, then independence is the only reliable route to that.
The SNP have a responsibility to fight against a damaging No-deal as a priority. Otherwise, we’d be out, with a catastrophe on hand and Scotland would be under the Tory thumb.
They don’t have to fight for Remain or normal WA agreement. This is not our business. We only have to ensure that there is a window and legislation to allow Scotland’s membership of the EU to be contiguous.
The SNP are not taking the risks that many people seems to be agitating for. And I suspect that’s because the Scottish Independence question would get turned into mush, inflamed and spun by the Unionists as part of current UK woes.
The SNP have adopted a mature, rational approach and taking things calmly and steadily against a UK state that seeks to exploit any weaknesses. Steady as she goes, is a good way to go, until it reaches crunch time.
Listening to this tough UDI / rebellion / People are Sovereign, talk from people who cannot even stop paying the BBC is laughable. Tough? It is being on the streets like Hong Kong, or even Catalonia. Tough, is taking down Union Flags, boycotting Unionist shops for example.
Tough is acting as if we are already Independent, in everything we do.
So, in my mind, there is a gap between ‘actions on the ground’ that people are willing to take, and the ‘slower, steady pace’ of the SNP. It’s hardly surprising that NS raised a petition to gauge the feelings on the ground.
Sturgeon has built a reputation for being an astute, measured and canny leader. It’s why many Yoons dont like her. I think this is one ingredient that is required to gain optimal support in Scotland for Indy…
“I believe you are way off target with your assertion that Nicola Sturgeon is lying about her intentions for a second referendum. She is on it and her patient strategy is paying off.”
In what way is it “paying off”? Are we one single step closer to having a second indyref than we were three years ago?
“The UK would be speeding fast towards the no-deal cliff with no-one driving the bus at all”
Oh, don’t you worry Stu, the VIP taxdodgers, the tory neocons, the ERG and the USA corporation interests will be driving the bus by remote control if the automatic pilot fails.
I can see an scenario rapidly developing where, due to Westminster’s paralysis, then another focus of power starts to flex it’s muscles.
There is a powerbase in the North of England centred around the mayors, e.g. Andy Burnham & Joe Anderson, who could step up to the plate – at least in an English forum.
That doesn’t solve Brexit/No Brexit, I know, but it is rapidly becoming clear that a solution from within Westminster is not about to be forthcoming. The Westminster system of centralised government has completely failed and is actually collapsing in front of our eyes. Leadership from within Westminster is currently impossible.
If you peel away the veneer of “Brexit” what actually needs to be solved is a newly born English Nationalism. Any solution lies there. I believe that Westminster knows and fears this. It’s the ultimate Genie escaped from the confines of the lamp. Sooner rather than later someone will articulate this clearly for the masses and it will develop a momentum of it’s own, either to a solution or a bonfire.
The SNP, if it were clever, should start to push this narrative, so that it becomes a conversational item. Once you start to have a conversation about something it starts to build it’s own gravity. Admitting to the English Nationalist Genie is only a step away from a conversation about an Independent England and a solution for England – the rest will just happen.
The Scottish govt has no choice while we are in UK but to go for least worst option and try to take no deal off the table. Their position has not changed at all. They don’t want brexit at all but while part of UK must try to make the best of a terrible situation brought on by squabbling unprincipled Tories.
“The SNP have a responsibility to fight against a damaging No-deal as a priority.”
Then it should have backed the Withdrawal Agreement, because what it’s doing now makes no-deal far more likely. You have to fight the war you’re in.
“PS if no party wants the Prime Ministers job the Queen can force the issue”
Yeah, that’s the kind of no-answer answer people have been giving. What does it MEAN? Who does she pick? On whose say-so?
She could opt for the President of the EU. Such a move would unite the UK fairly fast, I suspect. Alternately, she could pick from previous living PM’s.
Brilliant synopsis.
I agree, May’s untouchable deal is starting to look a reasonable option as we head towards full political meltdown.
Or, as I’ve been saying for ages, an endless series of extensions. ‘Leaving but haven’t actually left yet’ is the UK’s relationship with the EU for the foreseeable future.
Does the prime minister actually need to be in the HoC or HoL?
May seems a silly question, with the obvious answer of precedent says yes. However, if we are talking about a temporary caretaker is a time of total impasse, whose job was to delay Brexit and hold an election, could it not be a non politician?
And there is the HoL. A non party independent lord? One with a legal background?
Would that really help? An election might return a no-deal mandated far right Tories because of FPTP. However, FPTP IS how WM governments are chosen. That IS the shite standard WM works to. And if that’s the outcome, so be it.
That would bring clarity to the SNP!
The SNP could have backed the GE, with Labour abstaining. They want an election, that’s a no brainer. But the SNP are now running scared of upsetting the establishment.
They would be tarred as Boris enablers by Labour, if they backed an election. The truth is they would be adding 20 Mp’s to their ranks and furthering the Scottish cause. So it would be in the SNP and Scotland’s interests to back an election. It’s not in the UK’s interests because it would allow Brexit to happen.
So at what point will the SNP do what is solely in Scotland’s interests? The UK parties care not a jot about Scotland or what the SNP do. But we now have an SNP who are concerned for their English neighbours so much , that they allow Scotland to suffer as a result.
That is just plain criminal.
I recall reading about a football match somewhere (I think it might have been between 2 African nations) where the rules of the tournament led to a situation where both teams needed to concede a goal to get through to the next round. I can’t remember the exact circumstances (it might have been something to do with another team in their group I think), but it resulted in both teams trying to attack their own goal and score against themselves. To me, that sounds like the perfect metaphor for UK politics at the moment.
Brutal stuff Stu, but can’t fault your logic! I’ve felt for some time that the SNP has lost its way re independence but hoped I was wrong. Now I’m not so sure! All this focus on stopping Brexit and none on actually pushing for Scottish independence, which is after all the raison d’être of the party. We seem to be supplicants begging WM for a pointless and unnecessary S30 rather than telling them we’re having our referendum as triple-mandated by the Scottish electorate! Unless we get more aggressive in fighting for our nation I fear our cause will stagnate and wither. We will go out with a whimper and not a bang!
The SNP mandate is Scotland Remains or Indyref2.
If Nicola’s true position is to stop Scotland’s EU exit, then it’s a stance that respects the will of the electorate of Scotland and she should be praised for that.
However, the SNP have compromised this democratic stance when they began looking for “Soft Brexit”.
If I read it right, Stu says that May’s deal or “Soft Brexit” should be voted for. By the SNP?
If the SNP vote for that they will be voting against the will of the people of Scotland. Though going against the will of the people never bothered them before when they tried to negotiate Soft Brexit.
There’s no point in having a General Election unless the SNP used it as a manifesto opportunity to dissolve the Union, by seeking a mandate to form a provisional sovereign Scottish Govt, until Scotland holds its own confirmatory indyref as a de facto independent state.
But, that would take decisiveness, courage and real commitment to Scotland’s sovereignty.
So, the SNP will do what the SNP usually do: wait and see what England decides for Scotland next. Then Tweet their outrage.
A Dogs Dinner!
Osakisushi says:
GORDON FEDERAL BROWN!
Superb choice, guaranteed to be hated by everyone and would certainly focus minds 🙂
What if the UK government resigns and no one replaces it…
First up, all matters that were hitherto reserved, can no longer be : )
Wings,
You have to accept certain realities:
1. UK determines when there is a next indyref
2. there was a indyref five years ago.
For the first point, you could say that UK does not grant one. In this case, you have to hope people in Scotland get agitated by the realities of the UK – Scottish opinion does not matter even in determining their own constitution. It is politically tenious to claim Scotland cant have a referendum particularly if Brext results in a prolonged economic slump. If Scottish people accept that line – they deserve whatever is coming to them.
During a supposed indyref2, so quickly after the first one. It would be ridiculous to fight on the grounds of a material change without having attempted to keep the UK in the EU. The UK is in such a place where it is literally impossible to stop Brexit, but the SNP position has to be to keep Scotland in the EU through stopping Brexit until we have Brexited. We might not Brexit at all, but it would be dishonest to say we have Brexited when we haven’t yet and run a referendum before Westminster has decided what will happen. It is a shitty situation, but ultimately it is for Scottish public opinion to determine a lot of this.
If they vote no to indy, and they keep voting no to indy with BoJo, Brexit and all the rest – it is hard to see what the UK government can do to convince some people to switch their votes. This strategy is working for now.
For the first time I disagree with The Rev’s comment. Nicola Sturgeon did not lie. Watch FMQs where she quite specifically spoke loudly and slowly, as she said for the benefit of Carlaw, that she did not want Brexit, she wanted an Independent Scotland to be in the European Union.
Kenneth Clarke has already intimated that he would fill the role as temporary PM. Interestingly he also added that Jeremy Corby would have backing from himself and others on the proviso that only Brexit would be the remit, and no other areas of policy were included.
The SNP seem to be profiting from inaction rather than doing anything spectacular. Time will tell I suppose, though even that is limited.
Gavin Alexander at 02.08.
I agree with your concerns. It seems Stu Campbell thinks he can help the Indy cause by attacking the SNP, talking about an alternative Party and trying to convince folk that his approach for an Indy referendum is better than the SNP’s.
I just don’t buy it and though I have contributed regularly in the past to his site, that has now ended.
yeah but no but
Nicola has to be seen to be an international statesperson in order to get female votes. She gets that by motherly/protective to our close neighbour.
come on Stu..you know this
No DEAL is a dead duck.
Accepting the Irish backstop with watered down conditions will be enough for
Boris Johnston to bring enough tories back on board to get brexit over the line by 31/10/2019
BBC are helping out by showing a programme on tv “spotlight” about the troubles in Northern Ireland in the sixties and seventies in which they will claim there was equal blame on both sides.
This will help Boris get his softened approach accepted.
Boris will accept the backstop but will accompany it with some tough talking about what his plans are for the future for the benefit of the no deal supporters.
Brexit will happen and Corbyn will be blamed for the watered down version
SNP will call a Scottish independence referendum because Scotland had been taken out of the EU against its will
England will say the SNP action is understandable and forgive them because they tried so hard to prevent brexit then England will set about trying its very best to prevent a Scottish independence referendum win by the YES side
I’m half expecting Boris to offer us a referendum in return for an election. The polls don’t read well for Labour* in and while I get the trying to prevent a no deal scenario I’m not sure I see the point. If Boris wins any election he can simply repeal anything passed now and pursue his own course. So if the intent is an extension to the EU departure to say March 2020 then I still see an election in Oct/Nov and an indyref in 2020 (probably May, I don’t buy the bullshit that it would take the Electoral Commission months to mull over the wording…they passed the last one keep it the same).
If that occurs then, if I understand Stu correctly, the Wings party idea is less pressing and it will be all hands to the Indy pump.
* Which against a backdrop of raising the pension to 75 is criminal negligence on Corbyn’s part.
The whole thing is a mess and I have a lot of sympathy with Stu. I can’t tolerate politics on TV any more and I used to be a bit of politics binge watcher. Satire and political statement are so blurred half the time I don’t know if it is a press release or the Daily Mash.
I should have made clear in my comment above – no more “financial” contributions to Wings fund raising efforts
Everyone lying
Some people making commentary have lost their way
Pity, especially about some supposed Independence supporting websites.
Just as well support for the SNP and Independence is rising. The best time to have an IndyRef is when it can be won.
Trojan Horse
You are going to make independence harder to achieve with this sort of stuff. You have NO IDEA what the SNP strategy is. Your assumptions have let you down in the past and you are making assumptions now. I do not understand where you are coming from these days. This is bizarre stuff indeed.
There will will be no deal by October 31st. The so-called united kingdom will crash out of the EU. There will be a general election in November. The SNP will use the GE as a de facto independence referendum.
Hopefully the SNP will win 50+ seats. Even if it’s only [!] 40+ seats, the Scottish government will ask one last time for Section 30 to be agreed. It will not be. Scotland will withdraw its SNP MPs from Westminster. Holyrood will vote to end the union with England.
England will try to close down Scotland’s parliament. Civil disobedience and disorder will begin. Then it’ll be up to the people of Scotland whether they want to fight for Scotland’s independence.
Stupid in my opinion is correct in many ways,but not in some.
Should the SNP have already gone to court to establish the legal Sovereign right of Scots to hold a referendum?—yes.
Are the SNP giving it loud and proud about indy?–not enough. Ruth Davidson talks about indy more than the SNP elected officials. We’ve been saying that for two years on this site.
Currently ,the exit from Europe is looming large,with no clear solution on the horizon. The SNP now find themselves in a rearguard action to remove a no deal Brexit for the whole of the UK. Fair enough, but a no deal Brexit is probably the very thing that would secure an indy majority.
A Brexit deal may well muddy the waters of independence.
Further to this, it means a new government would have at least two years to attack Scottish independence, should the UK survive the inevitable consequences of a hard Brexit. People will also become resigned to shortages and financial hardship. They have for centuries.
The SNP should actually have had by now the levers in place to move an indy vote forward at short notice, but they have not.
Somebody ,somewhere in the SNP is calling the wrong shots at present
Not stupid, but Stu. Dan predictatext
The FM clearly stated what her and the Scottish governments terms were in a paper published in Dec 2016 and then ignored by the Tories in Westminster.
She has not budged from that compromise position that a deal to keep Scotland in the Single Market and Customs Union would be the least bad option if it proved impossible to remain a full member of the EU.
Not only did she argue that although this would be her preference that the entire UK remain in both CU and SM she recognised that England and Wales had voted to leave and said as much in her speech at Bute House when she announced the paper “Scotland’s Place In Europe.
Ms Sturgeon said: “I accept that there is a mandate in England and Wales to take the UK out of the EU. However, I do not accept that there is a mandate to take any part of the UK out of the single market.
She went further and the paper outlined how it might be possible to let England and Wales leave and Scotland kept in the CU and SM. Just as has been proposed for Northern Ireland.
So she said the “second strand” of the paper proposes ways in which Scotland could stay in the single market – through the European Free Trade Association (EFTA) and the European Economic Area (EEA) – even if the rest of the UK chooses to leave.
Ms Sturgeon insisted this option did not prioritise membership of the EU single market over continued free trade across the UK, but would “safeguard both”.
She added: “Talk of a hard border for Scotland has always rung hollow from a UK government that says no such hard border will be required between a post-Brexit UK and the Republic of Ireland, a continuing member of the EU.”
https://archive.fo/vvjmK
It is a fact that the FM proposed a deal to Westminster that was acceptable to the Scottish Government. This was completely and totally ignored of course. Scotland voted 62% to remain and that’s where the mandate comes from to keep Scotland in the EU by any means possible.
The best way to do that of course is for Scotland to become an Independent country and it has clear for months now that the FM’s intention is to hold a second referendum in the latter half of 2020. She has never deviated from her statement in 2017 prior to Article 50 being triggered that she will announce a date for a second referendum when the “terms of Brexit are clear”.
Still waiting on that. Hopefully not too much longer now though.
here’s a bit of’fun’ about Queenie choosing the PM
1963 Alec Douglas Home was preferred.
I understood Lord Hailsham was considered as in one version below but was in the Lords at the time.
Take your pick.
Mind you it’s history and today’s situation is a bit of a conundrum innit?
http://archive.is/dd91n
http://archive.is/QrQ2Q
IMO it is perfectly understandable to want NO Brexit, want a No Deal Brexit and want Independence for Scotland.
We want to be independent but with neighbours who are either still in the EU or failing that neighbours who have a Customs Union with the EU, a free trade agreement and freedom of movement.
What we definitely do not want is a neighbour on No Deal which, quite apart from the consequences for commerce and travel could lead to an existential threat to Scotland if things go as badly in that No Deal scenario as they might.
IMV even the worst case scenarios out there, bad as they are, all still assume London will retain the brunt of its current finance ‘services’ industry which is by no means certain. Lose that and it really will be riot time down there.
I do hope Doug @3.35pm is right! Only my take us that 30 SNP MP’s is enough – it’s a majority.
Not sure why Sturgeon is suddenly ‘lying’ when she has made it perfectly clear that she opposes Brexit. As any fule kno, Sturgeon is diligently building goodwill in the EU so that Scotland will be fast-tracked back in when we finally wriggle free. I suspect that deal has already been struck. The SNP will certainly not make the same mistake as the Catalans, despite the impatient Scottish ‘shooglies’ demand for some kind of futile ‘action’.
Brexit isn’t just about Brexit though, because as soon as Boris Johnson gets control, if he gets control, before you can say no deal Brexit we’ll be stuck with our new big Donald Trump alliance and joining America in a war on Iran over a barrel of oil that we don’t even need
We bit of longer term thinking about who you get involved in debt with
The guy who’s bankrolling Boris has a £300 million bet on the stock exchange on British business going bust so you can bet your boots Boris will pull every trick in the book or he doesn’t cash in
Don’t be fooled too much by this talk of what we should be involved in or not, because at this moment in time Scotland is still in this Union so everything that goes on in it is our business because it will affect us
If you live in a semi and next doors house is burning down you don’t just stand there and watch it burn because you don’t like the guy who lives in it, because yours is about to catch fire too
Problem – Reaction – Solution
Brexit – May, then Boris – WM passes the WA
Think you might be right, but whose steering all this?
I wonder if Wings is taking its eye off the ball with talk of a Wings Party, etc.
As a blog, you are doing a great job, Stuart. As your banner says, ‘Soaring ABOVE Scottish politics’. Please keep it that way.
As a remainer and Yesser, an SNP member and someone who doesn’t mind putting their hands in their pockets for Wings and the SNP, I have to say, while I am still behind NS, this tactic of trying to save England from Herself is wearing thin.
We F**ked up by taking the anti-brexit position – we should’ve remained shtoom.
Brexit is going to happen, so why on earth wouldn’t the SNP make the most of that reality to make sure it works in favour of achieving an Independent Scotland? – my flabber is and continues to be, gasted at the current strategy. All options, in my opinion, are just about exhausted and onward to indyref2 we should go.
An EU Exit extension could actually start to damage our position as patience wears thin with the anti-democrats – of which the SNP is now in danger of becoming. The situation is now so confusion, people are listening to simple narratives.
The UK deserves Brexit. Scotland needs to get out while we can.
Time for an SNP U-Turn – do a deal with the Tories to pass the WA in return for an agreed, quick, Indyref2.
For folk to start attacking the SNP at a time like this is just unbelievable. They need all the help they can get. Managing well, in the circumstances. Independence has never been so close.
Then there are the doubters. False flag.
Scotland needs to stay in EU or at least EEA so SNP must continue to be seen to oppose Brexit – what possible justification could they present for changing policy?
They are unlikely to be able to prevent English nationalism continuing to destroy the viability and credibility of the UK but must be seen to try.
Launching our lifeboat before the ship hits the iceberg would be folly.
NT
Probably not the best time to make a poll question suggestion after disagreeing with you Stuart but the following ocurred to me the other day. Its a question couplet.
First
If there was a General Election tomorrow, which party would you vote for?
SNP
Conservative
Labour
Libdem
Greens
Other
None of the above
Second
If there was a General Election in a future independent Scotland, which party would you vote for?
SNP
Conservative
Labour
Libdem
Greens
Other
None of the above
Obviously, the reason behind this couplet of questions would be to get some estimate of what a future independent Scotland might look politically but more importantly get an assessment of how many voters are currently ‘lending’ their vote to the SNP which could prove to be very useful information
@a hundred the idiot,
I agree. The next election will see either a majority of Tories and/or Brexit candidates in England. Together they will have a majority to do whatever they want. We know that the English public want out of Europe. No doubt about that.
They could bring legislation to leave Europe the very next day they are elected. No deal.No nothing. Where are we then with the likes of Farage and by then a resurgent Johnson or Give running the UK.
Tough times ahead,and no prepared escape route in sight.
Trying to destroy the independence mandate – my recollection is that the SNP manifesto referred to being taken out of the EU against our will only as an example – such as. There have been plenty of other reasons, starting immediately after the referendum with EVEL.
With regard to the chances of Jo Swinson offering IndyRef2, would you believe her if she did? If so, would you like to buy London Bridge from me?
So the rev. (Pretendy) believes the First Minister is lying. Are you telling the truth?
Where’s the pretendy party?
Thank god for scotgoespop.
Stuart is angry and rightly so. Not just with the usual suspects but also with the SNP leadership for leading their supporters down a blind Brexit alley. My impression is that Nicola Sturgeon has been got at (perhaps advised to “think very carefully” about what she and her party do next).
The saddest aspect of all this is that no matter how many SNP MP’s are elected to Westminster at the general election this autumn, the UK establishment will still be in command and will still be calling the shots. And, in the event that the Tories secure a large majority, the independence issue will be pushed to one side and forgotten about for another 300 years.
O/T
On the basis of the fact that it is a good idea to keep an eye on what one’s enemies are up to I read the on-line versions of the Mail, Express, Telegraph, Guardian and Independent daily.
Unless I have missed it, in spite of all of said blats commenting daily on the prospects of England, Wales and Ireland in The RWC I have yet to see a single mention of Scotland.
The Withdrawal Agreement – by place the border in the Irish Sea, and allowing for different trading conditions for NI compared to other parts of the UK – Breaches the Terms of the Act/Treaty of Union.
For this reason the SNP MUST NOT be seen to approve, or vote for it.
If rUK wants to breach the Terms of the Treaty of Union…. that is their decision, not ours.
It is also extremely damaging for our economy – only slightly worse than no deal.
I think this is one of our last levers, we must not throw it away.
I suppose living in bath engerlund gives you a perspective awY from folk living here.
Ps
We all want independence but we need to win it
Scotland will have to wait until the EU door is entirely shut to the UK. Who knows but on the day the EU announces that the UK have left the Union, the EU may offer its place to an independent Scotland, then all to play for. There are international laws about keeping and fleecing colonies and I’m sure Scotland will get support from both the UN and the EU.
@Hamish 100,
You sound like a jilted acolyte. Try thinking for yourself.
It’s amazing the amount of proud Scot buts who live in England but troll the internet complaining about what the Daily Mail and the Express tells them about Scottish politics
Also amazingly most of them support the Unionist football team from their sofas in London and were ex army veterans of 3 meals a day and never struggled a day in their lives but defended *our country* that they haven’t set foot in for umpteen years and wouldn’t recognise it if they did
If you’ve been out of Scotland for the last ten years or so then return, guaranteed you wouldn’t even know where you are half the time the transformation has been so much for the better
The Daily Mail and the Express don’t tell people that
The complaint used to be nobody wants to come to Scotland, now they complain there’s too many people coming to Scotland, I wonder why eh!
Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
Are we one single step closer to having a second indyref than we were three years ago?
——————
yes. by playing the anti brexit card, support for no is falling and support for yes is rising.
polls which consistently show a majority for yes move us forward to holding indyref2
it is a gamble, as you point out, supporting and proposing a “stop” brexit policy will and has gained support for indy but if it succeeds it removes our mandate to hold indyref2.
there in lies the gamble, such a policy will only work if the snp fail to stop brexit. presently, the polls show that regardless of by which mechanism brings it about, a ge is going to happen and bojos no deal tories will win.
as such, i think nicola is following the right policy
I suppose the rationale is that, in the context of a Brexiting UK, there would be a proposed hard border between rUK and Scotland, which rightly or wrongly could be perceived as a difficult sell to those most likely to change their minds for an indy Scotland.
That’s assuming that as part of the proposal was the intention to remain/re-join the EU. Opponents will try to ridicule an SNP proposing an indy Ref based on escaping the outcome of the WA they’ve consistently told us was rubbish but have just voted for. But the narrative for that is clear; we’ve done everything in our power to stop this madness, and now all other available options are worse than letting rUK/England having what it wants whilst we decide our own future.
Part of the deal to vote for the WA would have to be dependent on holding the indy Ref, of course.
There’s also an open goal to build consensus for that majority support in Scotland; there are many versions of a changing EU relationship, the UK was only presented a narrow choice hemmed in by strict red lines based on greedy self-interest. If, as a prerequisite of holding an indy Ref, you were to promise that all options would be on the table and that an indy Scotland would decide what was best, then we could achieve a convincing win.
Any reasonable leave/remain voter and every Yes voter should welcome that.
I’ve been concerned at the change in the Rev’s writings since the ‘Dugdale’ business.
I’m fed up of the constant anti-SNP dogma now coming from what is supposed to be an Indy blog.
Have contributed to every fundraiser, but this is the final straw.
Maybe ask myself if we did get Indy, what would happen to the Rev’s lifestyle without fundraisers – is that why he attacks Nicola at every opportunity now? Some years back ‘Rock’ used to say things like everything not necessarily being what they seem (with reference to the National, particularly).
I will keep voting SNP until Indy is achieved, but I give up on Wings. I want to be encouraged not depressed.
In-D-Car Gordon Ross 6.9.19 – A new set of options for Boris Johnson have emerged.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nRO1lnCng2k
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1169724548171874309
According to the above figures, an October election results in a thumping Tory majority. The SNP wins 50+ seats. So what? It’d be no better than the 2015-2017 parliament.
A November election results in another, probably badly hung parliament. The SNP still wins 50+ seats and can trade these votes for IndyRef powers being devolved.
Do you really think Johnson will turn around after winning a majority and allow IndyRef2 to be held?
A useful pull-out guide to the present state of politics as practiced in the big hoose by the Thames. Unfortunately, it will have a very short shelf life as it is likely to be overcome by events, dear boy, events.
The Scottish government, acting on behalf of the electorate who voted to remain in the EU, is probably doing the correct thing by arguing, whenever possibly, to remain in the EU. Yes, achieving that would destroy the current Indyref2 mandate but a), realistically, how likely is it that Brexit, in whatever form, would or could be cancelled and, b), if it was, wouldn’t the resulting political tsunami in the aforementioned big hoose by the Thames encourage more of the Scottish electorate to consider as a valid option Scottish independence? Or, in other words , ‘keep calm, carry on.
The other bit of realism which the aforementioned seems to be avoiding, other than lying – as ever, is considering what happens after Brexit, since it is not an end point but the start of a long process and, again, the Scottish government may be following the correct strategy of being nice to the EU, and to the Nordic nations. If there is a no-deal Brexit, at some point, as the ramifications sink in, whoever is running the show in the aforementioned will need to ask the EU for a trade deal. That may not go well.
“If opposition parties refuse to give Johnson an October election and if he decides he cannot break his promise to deliver Brexit, then Johnson very quickly runs out of other options. …. under those circumstances he would opt instead to resign as prime minister.”
https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-could-resign-as-prime-minister-delay-brexit-2019-9
Seems implausibly simplistic!
I never thought I would say this but…..
I’ve stopped reading a quarter of a way through this article, I’m just fed up of all this utter bullshit by all sides and I really do fail to understand why our First Minister and the rest of the SNP are battling so hard to keep the “UK” in the EU or Common Market when the the Brexiters are so hell bent on a No Deal exit.
Let us say that every person in Scotland was going to vote for independence. Sounds brilliant doesn’t it?
Now, how do we get the referendum?
Declare UDI? It hasn’t worked for other countries.
Demand a section 30 from Westminster governed probably by Brexit and Tory and DUP? Not sure they will concede that.
Civil disobedience? Might not end well.
Nicola is trying to find a cast iron legal route to independence by hoping that some of the greatest liars,deceivers and populists that will rule this UK next year, will accede to her wishes and grant a section 30.
I have a better chance of flapping my arms and ending up on Jupiter.
What then are our options? The Rev is right to ask the question.
sassenach @4:20
I suggest you toughen up. Or do you just want to hang out with the ‘lets all slap ourselves on the back’ gang.
To suggest the SNP can do no wrong or make a strategic error is just wee boy thinking.
And to have a go at the Revs ‘lifestyle’ – below the belt. What are you doing for Indy? – probably a damn sight less than the Rev. You might even be making more than the living wage.
If all you want is to be encouraged then I suggest you go join yourself a mindfulness meeting……whatever the f*ck that is…….
While I’m glad ye said something Stu,because it needed saying!
Ultimately the real reason we’re no any closer to independence is because the Scottish People aren’t demanding it!
We can all only do so much, but, if some people can’t or won’t see it,then we’re stuck….
But while we’re stuck I don’t see any reason not to play with the system we’re stuck in…
Therefore Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP absolutely have a mandate to stymie Brexit.
Unless and until we leave or are thrown out ( either way works for me ) we have the right to stir the shit and prevent what we want when we want,and the English voters just have to live with it!!
Thepnr @ 3.37
The compromise was always a non started any way Alex…
If we stayed in the single market and England didn’t the question then becomes which market the oil and gas are in?
Obviously we would say ours and the EU would likely agree !
But Westminster would never agree to that.
It would likely be the same with all our other major exports Whisky,Electricity ect.
Not to mention the the reserved issues held at Westminster would be subject to EU law and that would create a demand to devolve them…. Which would finish up being independence by the back door and Westminster can’t afford to let that happen
My only hope is that the SNP have a deep strategy of appearing to want to stop Brexit entirely, to appeal to No-Remainers, whilst gambling on the fact that the English are going to fuck everything up and a no deal Brexit is inevitable. Those No-Remainers then doing the decent thing and switching to Yes.
Alan says:
Do you really think Johnson will turn around after winning a majority and allow IndyRef2 to be held?
——————
possibly not, but this would cause support for yes to continue to rise and every election going forward would become an indyref
in truth, we were already in the situation of potentially being refused indyref2, the only thing which is changing is the level of support for yes
it is the rise in support for yes which will eventually win us independence. everything else is just padding
Solutions to the current impasse:
1. The Duke of Edinburgh takes de Piffle out for a drive while he’s at Balmoral this weekend, unfortunate accident.
2. Ken Clarke becomes interim PM, immediately tells the EU we’re withdrawing Article 50 and staying in pending another Referendum, but one at which all the claims and counter-claims will be tested before publication. No lies written on the side of buses, the electorate know what they are voting for.
3. Scotland declares UDI, and, because we are an oil-producing state, Trump sends in the US Marines, we became the 51st state, which, at a stroke gives Holyrood more power than it currently has. We then are the main conduit between the USA and Europe and we get even-richer. Simples.
Depressing but true insight into the omnishambles that exists. I don’t know what the answer is but I’ve decided to go out and get drunk. It might ease the pain for a while.
@schrodingers cat
“a ge is going to happen and bojos no deal tories will win.”
Sure, the Tories might win a General election and then again they may not. Johnson’s best chance was having one before the 31st of Oct and that plan has clearly been spiked by the opposition now.
The earliest we will have an election now is sometime in November, aboslutely nothing is going to happen until Johnson is obligated to go cap in hand on 19th Oct begging for an extesion to article 50.
I’d think it’s more likely he would resign rather than do that, an emergency governmnet would then need to be formed and the Queen would have to ask the MP most likely to cammand a majority in the house to succeed Johsnon as PM. Something similar occured in 1940 with Churchill taking over from Chamberlin.
On the morning of Friday, 10 May, Germany invaded the Netherlands and Belgium. Chamberlain initially felt that a change of government at such a time would be inappropriate, but upon being given confirmation that Labour would not serve under him, he announced to the War Cabinet his intention to resign.
Scarcely more than three days after he had opened the debate, Chamberlain went to Buckingham Palace to resign as Prime Minister. Despite resigning as PM, however, he continued to be the leader of the Conservative Party. He explained to the King why Halifax, whom the King thought the obvious candidate, did not want to become Prime Minister.
The King then sent for Churchill and asked him to form a new government; according to Churchill, there was no stipulation that it must be a coalition government.
My main point though is that Johnson is not assured of winning a General election that is delayed into November. An ICM poll today has the Tories leading Labour by 9 points IF the election is before 31st Oct. If the UK fails to leave the EU by that date then the Brexit party vote doubles from 9 to 218% and the Tories are neck and neck with Labour.
Why do you think that the opposition are holding back? I’m sure it’s because it increases their chances of winning said election.
So all sort of names i have never seen before disagreeing and even saying that you have been wrong in the past. I can recall you being wrong in the past , however even if you were you still get it right far more than any other political commentator
I cant make up my mind whether Sturgeon is playing a blinder or is being advised wrongly. Im glad to see that she has learned to say the I word again recently. However I agree with you the Section 30 issue should have been tested in the courts two years ago. Having said that I think uou are being a wee bit harch on the Snp, I cannot see politically where they could vote for the withdrawel agreement, its still a hard Brexit after all. A retweet you did today sums up Westminster Today.
https://mobile.twitter.com/PeskyScot
@Liz g
“If we stayed in the single market and England didn’t the question then becomes which market the oil and gas are in?”
I’m not sure what you mean by this, the question of who the oil and gas belongs to is a question of International Law. When Scotland is Independent and is either in or out of the EU the question of which market the oil and gas are in is immaterial.
If England is out of the EU and the single market and customs union then we will have to deal with that exactly the same as every other EU member does.
For me that is not a risk in any way shape or form, there will always be a market for Scotland’s exports, I’m sure after Independence the rUK will be doing it’s damnedest to get a Free Trade Agreement with Scotland. After all we’ll hold all the cards 🙂
Ken500 @ 15:24:
Well, that is a truism that we’ve heard here before.
Here’s one in return:
I don’t believe though we need be pessimistic about the UK political establishment falling apart, as it is manifestly doing. It proves we were right all along, and many ordinary people in Scotland are now changing from no to yes over it. So what’s the problem?
The main one I see is that apathy and disillusion can so easily set in, if some supporters of the SNP keep implying that the party doesn’t have the stomach for the necessary confrontation in a sufficiently timely manner. That first quote is perfectly correct at face value, but what it always seems to carry with it is an underlying sense of a lack of self-belief, a willingness to just wait in the hope that things somehow continue to produce converts until the magic 60% bell rings. A bell that with pesent tactics may never ring. It’s this apparent stagnation and communicated sense of passivity which is demoralising, and causing some of the more restless among us to look for alternative ways forward.
There remain worrying signs of that this “60%” thinking among the SNP politicians as well, as eg. by Andrew Wilson with his recent tut-tutting about “populism”. As if energising people to have hope in the future was somehow beneath his dignity and, well… disreputable.
Yes, of course we need to judge we are steadily garning enough support for a fair chance of a win, and yes, the stakes are very high, but we will never get a guarantee, and waiting a whole other year while we sort out England’s problems first stands a very good change of losing the swell of support at home and leaving our own affairs far, far too late. The strategy has been very productive until now, and won many friends, not least – crucially – at home, but sooner rather than later we will need to engage more strongly with our own concerns.
However, I do detect a definite change in tone and intent from the SNP leadership these days, and I’m hopeful that they are not as wedded to another miserable year of “wait & see” that some supporters appear to expect (and maybe even wish).
So I’m still feeling cautiously upbeat. We are winning the argument, it’s just a question of timing this right then coming out full-bore to actively promote our case and fully engage everyone, instead of just sitting by hoping for better days.
By that engagement we will build the necessary and rightful win.
After whatever flavour Brexit is, all the media including the State Broadcaster will be full of stories about how shite the EU is, that we got out at the right time, everything is going to be wonderful and that shite really is chocolate.
It has already started as we’ve just been told that “austerity has ended”, now there’s money for this and money for that.
The very idea that we will all be told leaving the EU was a mistake, is simply ridiculous.
People on here who believe that everyone will see the light after Brexit are, unfortunately for Scotland, fucking delusional.
Thnpr “The earliest we will have an election now is sometime in November, aboslutely nothing is going to happen until Johnson is obligated to go cap in hand on 19th Oct begging for an extesion to article 50.”
According to Finnish Sources their is not a concensus in the EU to grant one.
Johnston will not ask for an extension. His handlers will not allow him too. He will either ignore the law or resign and as the Rev asks what happens next? There will be a no deal Brexit.
It’s a pity there’s not a market for 2nd hand dummies.
Unhygienic 🙂
ahundredthidiot says@4-34
“To suggest the SNP can do no wrong or make a strategic error is just wee boy thinking.”
I never said or suggested such a thing, can you not read? If not then kindly wind yer neck in.
It has long been acknowledged that only the SNP can secure independence for us ( or do you have another Party that can do it?).
My ‘beef’ is purely that, of late both here and on his twitter site, the Rev has been constantly having a go at the Leader when we all know independence is coming to a head, one way or the other. That just doesn’t fit with a so-called independence supporter.
@REV
“Then it should have backed the Withdrawal Agreement, because what it’s doing now makes no-deal far more likely. You have to fight the war you’re in”
They couldn’t vote for a WA!! Scotland voted remain!! It’s really that simple.
And we are where we are with ‘No Deal’ … so the SNP were and are right to fight it to the end. A ‘No deal’ is literally ‘off the cliff’ edge. And the simple and least important example I used before, you are British living in Cyprus say, your British Driving licence is invalid overnight.
In the ‘sensible’ Brexit scenario, there is a window of negotiation. There is the chance for Scotland to extract themselves and to continue with EU.
In a ‘No Deal’ – A Johnson, Moggs victory… not so much!!
So again, it is absolutely right for the Scottish Government to aid the blocking of No-deal and to hold off on the election to prevent Johnson getting what he wants.
Sure, there are possible scenario’s, including Johnson ignoring or standing down. And we could end up back at ‘No Deal’ but Scotland will have done what is right, just and principled.
In my view, this will strengthen our support and majority for Independence. We can all go crazy if a section 30 is denied by any party in power. And while we can do this, the SNP will be on the way to Strasbourg, Luxembourg to argue that EU law counts in this case. Westminster is not impartial, so UK law is effete here. Don’t forget that it was EU pressure that gave Scotland devolution, not Labour or Tony Blair as they like to claim. And if ECJ doesn’t work, then I am sure Cherry and Co will be at the United Nations citing the events of the past months… There will be sympathy.
Shouting at the SNP is totally counter productive. Criticism, fine. But to all those who are throwing their toys out the pram, you are weakening our chances.
The Union wants, indeed seeks division. And we are handing it on a fucking plate.
If everything I say is a lie, am I lying now….
Your sounding more and more like the English version of the Daily Mail Stu , SNP baad , especially Nicola Sturgeon , maybe time for you to fly off.
And right on cue, we have an explanation of what is supposed to happen if Johnson refuses to seek and extension and resigns instead.
OK, so now being asked a lot about PM resignations and advice to the Queen. Not going to go back over all the complications of this, just set out what the Cabinet Manual says…
“…If the Prime Minister resigns on behalf of the Government, the Sovereign will invite the person who appears most likely to be able to command the confidence of the House to serve as Prime Minister and to form a government.”
So in case of outgoing minority PM resigning, for whatever reason, key is who the Queen then turns to. The bit that leads to MANY discussions is the ‘most likely to be able to command the confidence of the House’. Tricky without a formal process to prove it…
Full thread here:
https://twitter.com/cath_haddon/status/1169993111067643905
At the end of it all, you will be no wiser LOL. There is at least a plan of sorts.
I’ve typed ‘Sovereignty’ so many times I can pick out the ‘S’, ‘O’, ‘V’, etc keystrokes with the tablet turned off.
Most of my criticism and SNPbad down the years has been exasperation that the SNP has steadfastly refused to embrace Scotland’s sovereign Constitution, and despite not making myself any friends amongst the SNP, I’ve never felt guilty about their annoyance because I have never once doubted that (pardon the immodesty) I am right, and they are wrong. Our Constitutional Sovereignty is the key to Independence, NOT democracy. Democracy is a fallacy. It’s a benign fallacy I suppose, understandable too, but still false. Our freedom lies in our sovereignty.
But there is an area of SNPbad which has nothing to do with the strategic master plan of favouring a democratic strategy over a constitutional strategy, and it very much does get under my skin.
There’s an expression which runs that an Army with nobody to fight will fight with itself, and perhaps my greatest annoyance which may prove difficult to forgive, is the way the whole diaspora of the 2014 YES movement has been left out in the cold, hung out to dry, left to their own devices but given nothing whatsoever to sustain itself beyond a bland “trust Nicola” narrative which has never cut any ice with me since the first day I heard it.
Just look at wee TartanPiggsy and his efforts to get his 10,000 YES flags crowdfunded. But where is the momentum for 10,000 flags?… Little cogs connect with bigger cogs all through the YES movement and NEED to know the script to plan ahead and do their bit, and anticipate demand, and frankly it’s pretty damned selfish that our “leaders” just don’t lead. Where does that leave YES Lieutenants like TartanPiggsy?. There’s the Arc of Prosperity Blog based in Denmark now, because there’s only so long before uncertainty becomes intolerable and literally unaffordable. How nice it must be to have all the time in the world.
We now have blogs at each other’s throats and comments BTL spitting acrimonious criticism and accusations, we have the SNP fully entrenched with their fingers in their ears, we have AUOB marches stimulating tremendous momentum which then turns into a treading water exercise because that momentum has nowhere to go. We have people falling silent online because they’re just losing heart, when all of us, ALL OF US, across our whole spectrum of different and sometimes conflicting perspectives, just want to get this business fkg done and get our marvellous wee Nation out of this parasitic Union and standing again on it’s own two feet as the tough and hardy wee Nation that knew fine how to look after itself back in the 14th Century.
We were getting so much right back in 2013/14, yes, we lost, be we had such forward momentum that if we’d held the vote again in October we’d have won. It was that momentum which sent 53 out of 56 SNP MP’s to Westminster, and swelled the ranks of the SNP membership by tens of thousands.
And then, the icing on the cake… against all the odds in Christendom, the heaven sent miracle we never thought possible… Less that two years after defeat, Indy was already back on the agenda. The UK Government gave us a Brexit Referendum, and Scotland, bless you Scotland, delivered a democratic constitutional battering ram to break down the doors at the Palace of Westminster and liberate forever Scotland’s Sovereign Nation status. England voted Leave, and Scotland voted stay and the Union had an unreconcilable Constitutional dilemma. It was doomed.
…. And then it all stopped.
Ever since the SNP turned it’s back of Scotland’s Constitutional marvel in 2016, and opted to compromise on a soft Brexit Single Market consolation prize, we have been lost, at sea, and NEVER been on the front foot at any time since.
Yes, the SNP has thankfully evolved it’s position to now assert that Scotland will not be removed against it’s will, but the damage was done, and doubts persist that the SNP is sure and confident of it’s righteous Constitutional footing… I mean they know it, they know the words, but it seems the faith in it is weak.
So of our options? Where are we?
A referendum seems forlorn, because it won’t save us from Brexit. Out the EU, losing the votes of EU friends, pitting our naive aspirations against the black hearted media and perfidious Westminster Government? It feels a bleak venture for 2020 or whenever.
A General Election seems near, but will it make us or break us? If it delivers momentum for Scottish Independence, then great, except if it does, it is likely because it has delivered momentum for English Nationalism too, and bargaining for our Freedom with the Protofascists in Westminster like Johnson and Farage feels a bleak endeavour too.
And so we’re back at our trusty Constitution; the sovereignty of our people. The truth the BritNat Propagandists cannot mention, and the reality which Unionism wants to redefine like Winston Smith in the Ministry of Truth…. and a Scottish Government which seems torn between the Parliamentary Sovereignty of Westminster, and the Popular Sovereignty of the Scottish people. I’m sorry, but every which way you cut it is the same. Given our circumstances, this seems an inexcusable dilemma we really shouldn’t be having.
Oh dear Stu . You seem to have annoyed the SNP ultras.
I can only suggest Sturgeon is desperately trying to keep us in the EU, because once we exit Johnson and Co (Or whoever) will strip Holyrood of its powers. We won’t have any EU protection after a no deal Brexit, and Westminster’s menacing actions towards Holyrood will be seen as inhouse cleaning.
Sturgeon’s real problem over the last three years has in my opinion lain in the polls not showing enough folk favouring independence. Now as we near the Brexit date the polls are changing in our favour, but is it too late to call an indyref whilst we still have EU protection?
For after we leave with what looks like a no deal, it might be too late.
Should Sturgeon have called the indyref earlier, and hoped the polls favoured us?
Whichever way we end up, stripped of power or independent, we shouldve taken advantage of the utter turmoil that has encapuslated Westminster for over three years. I hope we don’t rue the day.
Or is there still time if there’s a Brexit extension?
sassenach @5:04
good to see you back…….
@Alan
“Do you really think Johnson will turn around after winning a majority and allow IndyRef2 to be held?”
He won’t want to, it will stick in his craw, but the chances are he will. For him, it’s the best option. Leave it to a vote and hope they can overturn it again. Rather than say “No” and have to fight on all fronts.
In the event he says ‘No’ there is so much pressure in Scotland now, that the SNP would have to hold a referendum without S30. (Then all the shouters and doubters would have to back up their rhetoric)
In both cases, the real fight would only start after a YES result. We would be in the ‘Referendums are advisory territory’ for sure.
A soft Unionist friend of mine referred to Sturgeon as Krankie MacMerkel a while back and I couldn’t refute it, as she’s shown more guile for
attending Remain rallies, posing for selfies with war criminals like Alistair Campbell and generally interfering in the democratic wishes of England and Wales.
It’s worrying that her happy clappers don’t see the dangerous precedent she has set by trying to overturn the 2016 result, despite the subsequent EU election results and Brecon by-election vote split. If she won’t respect England and Wales vote to Leave (however much she and others may disagree with it) then what’s to say that, after a successful YES vote, they won’t spend three years plus stamping their feet and demanding a “People’s Vote”?
Thepnr @ 4.52
Sorry I wasn’t clear Alex.
I was talking about the compromise proposal that Scotland stay in the single market while England leaves it!
The one that the Scottish Government sent to Westminster…
We wouldn’t be independent so that’s why who controlled the oil and gas becomes a question as to which market it would be in and where the revenue would be gathered?
@Breeks
Are you still certain that Scotland will be leving the EU in 55 days?
“Democracy is a fallacy”
Aye so we’ll Make that Number 1 and the first line of a new Scottish Constitution then.
You’re such a conceited arsehole, I was going to say “at times” but with you it’s all the time.
So far you’ve NEVER been right, what makes you think that this time it will be any different? Get that countdown to Brexit going again and make another fool of yourself, why don’t you.
I think the SNP has handled this about as well as could be expected. It had to oppose Brexit because the Scottish electorate voted remain. Trying to avoid No-Deal doesn’t negate the mandate for a referendum because Scotland will still be taken out of the EU against the express will of the Scottish electorate. Avoiding No-Deal is simply damage limitation. By being seen to oppose Brexit and trying to stop No-Deal the SNP cannot be accused of cynical opportunism by those opposed to independence come the next referendum.
I still expect the UK to leave with No-Deal, and it isn’t difficult for Johnson to achieve it. Probably the simplest way is to not appoint an EU commissioner and the EU will have no option but to throw the UK out. I’m sure the SNP have figured this out.
Europa extra:
https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/boris-johnson-wants-brexit-at-any-price-a-1285550.html#ref=rss
Chris Downie @5:22
‘A soft Unionist friend of mine referred to Sturgeon as Krankie MacMerkel’
Then you’re a damn fool to think your buddy is a soft Unionist – that’s the Enemy of Scotland speaking.
@Liz g
I get you now, it would have depended on the separate deal that England & Wales choose to leave under I guess. A lot has changed since 2016 so impossible to say how it was envisaged back then that it might have worked it.
The EU did agree though to keep the entire UK in the SM and CU until the border issue was solved and that’s what the backstop is all about. Just wait and see, there will be separate deals for Gibraltar and the Falkland islands too who rely on the EU in particular Spain to buy all their fish/seafood without tariffs.
“Watch FMQs where she quite specifically spoke loudly and slowly, as she said for the benefit of Carlaw, that she did not want Brexit, she wanted an Independent Scotland to be in the European Union.”
Those are two separate issues.
@ahundredthidiot
“Time for an SNP U-Turn – do a deal with the Tories to pass the WA in return for an agreed, quick, Indyref2.”
This would be stupid, ridiculous and damaging.
There should be no deals struck for a S30 and Indy2. We don’t need to make a deal, and if there was any sense in a deal being done it would not be for a one off, but a recognised in perpetuity… in other words, devolved to Holyrood.
All of you on here, talk about what we are entitled to, that Scotland is sovereign, yet in the same breath talk about “…Swinson granting…” I chose her as the example, because it is a few messages up, and is the most ridiculous. An S30 should be viewed as a piece of parliamentary process only. No one has the right to deny it or grant it. And thats how everyone should be thinking.
There is pressure coming from Ireland .. and most recently Wales. We are moving inexorably towards all countries changing their relationship with England.
There is a reemergence of the ENP – The English Nationalist Party (Tory + Brexit Party +UKIP) maybe they will even win the GE. But it will be close. There is no settled future on the UK horizon, without some serious constitutional and political change. Scottish Independence is a key part of this.
And to end on a question, if they tried to close down Holyrood, how many of you would be on the streets to defend it?
“My main point though is that Johnson is not assured of winning a General election that is delayed into November. An ICM poll today has the Tories leading Labour by 9 points IF the election is before 31st Oct. If the UK fails to leave the EU by that date then the Brexit party vote doubles from 9 to 18% and the Tories are neck and neck with Labour.”
This argument makes me want to scream.
Did you learn NOTHING from 2015? Brexit voters aren’t fucking idiots, unfortunately. In that election they voted UKIP where there was a credible chance of UKIP winning a seat, and elsewhere they voted Tory to ensure they got their referendum.
They know that what they’ve always wanted is at stake. They WILL vote tactically. The Remain vote WILL be split. The huge swathe of Labour seats are in English towns and cities that voted Leave.
You’re basically counting on about 300 miracles. You need Labour to hold all of those seats (the Lib Dems are absolutely nowhere in them) and the Tories to lose lots of seats in Brexit-voting shires because their vote’s been split by the Brexit Party. You’re betting that you can toss a coin 100 times and get 90 heads. It’s absolutely insane.
mac @5:39
‘And to end on a question, if they tried to close down Holyrood, how many of you would be on the streets to defend it?’
Surely you mean ‘us’?
@Rev
“Those are two separate issues”
I completely disagree. They are not separate by very fact that they are linked to voter numbers and independence support.
We know that there are YES supporters who are also Brexit.
And we should be seeking continuance in the EU, not a Brexit and reentry. All the signs are there that this is entirely possible, assuming a very positive YES, whether gained with an S30 or not.
Westminster has no supporters in the EU. Farage and Johnson have effectively killed the relationship. When the time is right Scotland will have formal discussions to continue in the EU.
The best way — perhaps the only way — for the UK to escape from this apparent impasse is to find a Brexit which most people could live with. You’re right, I think, that ‘Mrs May’s deal’ has the best chance of getting that level of acceptance.
But you seem to think that there is no plausible route to this outcome. I’m not so sure — Ken Clark drops strong hints that if he was a GNU-temporary-PM, this deal is what he’d propose — backed up if necessary by a popular vote.
Make a call now for independence. What’s the worst that could happen?
ahundredthidiot says:
6 September, 2019 at 5:45 pm
mac @5:39
‘And to end on a question, if they tried to close down Holyrood, how many of you would be on the streets to defend it?’
Surely you mean ‘us’?
Semantics my friend, semantics.
@Rev. Stuart Campbell
Scream away, doesn’t change the FACT that that is what the poll says.
“I completely disagree. They are not separate by very fact that they are linked to voter numbers and independence support.”
It really doesn’t matter whether you agree or not. They ARE separate issues. A vote for one does not bestow the other. Scotland can be independent in or out of the EU, and it can be in the EU whether it’s independent or not.
“Scream away, doesn’t change the FACT that that is what the poll says.”
Fucksake, try to actually read what I’m saying. The polls said Ed Miliband would fucking win. The polls tell you who people would LIKE to vote for, not who they actually WILL vote for, because in an FPTP election not all seats are equal. In some seats the party you’re aligned to have no chance and realistically you have to pick the least-worst of the others.
This isn’t an abstract theory. 2015 is the past. It actually happened. It’s why we’re in this whole sodding mess in the first place.
“It really doesn’t matter whether you agree or not. They ARE separate issues. A vote for one does not bestow the other. Scotland can be independent in or out of the EU, and it can be in the EU whether it’s independent or not”
Of course a vote for one does not favour the other, and you state the obvious “Scotland can be independent in or out of the EU, and it can be in the EU whether it’s independent or not” So fucking what?!
To insist that it ‘doesn’t matter’ and that they ARE separate issues… is Boris style piffle. The fact is the manifesto and the voting intention are intertwined. One affects the other. Many people see it this way. Let’s start with Fishing communities, YES support diminishes with remaining or fighting No-deal Brexit. There are some Fisher folk, who would like to see a Brexit to claw back control, followed by Independence to take it off of Westminster.
The issues cannot be separated black and white.
STV news fails to mention that the £160m EU money was handed over to UK gov in 2015 and merely reported that the SNP claimed this. It is a fact but left viewers with impression that SNP was sniping fr sidelines
Argh, it’s so bloody frustrating. The Westminster London English government have really played us all haven’t they. Taking the utter rip out of the people. Meanwhile Scotland has been pushed aside again and again, and doesn’t ‘matter’ one jot apparently.
Oh I think Scotland matters a lot! The Britnats are absolutely shi**ing it, the SNP would gain seats at a general election and they are not prepared for it, and certianly not willing to chance it!
Little tiny stupid, poor, pathetic subsidy junkie Scotland ‘doesn’t matter’ but it’s at least largely why the snap GE has been rejected. Lose Scotland, and it would be catastrophic for a Brexit England.
Scotland is stuck between a rock and a hard place. The history of the whole sham ‘union’ so called, has led us to this point really. England is having a tantrum, one of many,
fighting among themselves, while still keeping a very very tight hold of the reins of devolution, the strength of their grip is like one of those dogs whose teeth clamp shut on their prey.
Grrrrrrr, grrrrrr, :-^^^^^ ¬¬¬¬¬ get that big stick rammed into it’s jaw SNP before it does even more damage.
The next couple of weeks are going to be crucial. I don’t think Nicola Sturgeon has lost sight of the bigger picture for Scotland quite yet. Hope is nice, but it’s an emotion,
having it or not, does little for independence.
I think it’s getting to crux stage, but that’s just my thoughts.
Hello planet Earth, I know we have you on the back boiler quite literally while the nasty selfish rich people have us all tearing our hair out over their totally selfish mess. Sorry about that an all. 🙁
The current situation gives the Scottish government the ability to use the General Election as a plebiscite on Independence. If the GE resulted in a minority Labour government the Scottish government could negotiate a confidence and supply agreement on the basis that a confirmatory referendum would be held to ratify the terms of the independent settlement between the Scottish government and the English Parliament. This referendum could contain an option the remain in the UK. This would also satisfy the requirements for EU recognition of an Independent Scottish state.
Hold on, I thought the whole thing about a Section 30 order is it’s done by an Order in Council so parliament gets no say in the matter. That was to my recollection how Cameron did it or did I miss the vote in the HoC?
If your not stockpiling ,just in case, you should start,
food,fuel,soap,medicines,toilet paper,water,
might never happen but there is a good chance of shortages and civil unrest.
Sometimes some of the details leading up to this point get forgotten.
Originally the EU proposed that the backstop be for NI only. It was May who insisted it had to be UK wide. Perhaps because of DUP pressure. Perhaps because of the general threat to the Union the EU version would pose.
Recently the EU did say that the original Ireland only version could be available, if that helped. No takers.
Putting the single market border in the Irish Sea, or as Rev Stu once suggested, also between Gretna-Berwick, is still an option. Unacceptable to Uber BritNats and Greater England imperialists because of its long term inevitable threat to their Union, yes, but it’s still an option for everyone else.
Let me try to illustrate. A recent poll suggested that if the election was held in November and the UK hadn’t left the EU, Labour would in fact lead the Tories by six points – 28% to 22%.
So that’s all well and good. If you plug those bare numbers into Electoral Calculus, Labour gets the most seats (285), and an alliance with the Lib Dems OR the SNP gets them a majority.
In that instance we’re fucked, btw, because they’ll pick the Lib Dems rather than give us another indyref, but let’s pass that by for a moment because it’s not what we’re talking about.
EC also lets you add a “tactical fraction”, which is how many of the people who said they’d vote for Party X would in fact vote for Party Y if they thought Party X had no chance in their own seat.
I hope it’s uncontroversial to say that this number is in reality going to be highest among Tory and Brexit Party supporters. Farage has already offered the Tories a no-deal pact. As we already know, the bulk of Labour seats are in Leave constituencies and a lot of those people are going to be pretty conflicted.
Conversely, Lib Dems aren’t going to tactically vote Labour when they’re (justifiably) far from convinced that Labour really want to stop Brexit, and not many northern Labour voters are going to vote Lib Dem.
(They’re probably more likely to vote tactically for the Brexit Party, in fact, but let’s assume that the “natural” second choice for Labour is LD or Green or SNP, all Remain parties.)
So let’s give Labour and the Lib Dems a still quite generous tactical fraction (TF) of 25% each, and the Tories and Brexit Party 50% each.
In that election, even though Labour were polling several points ahead of both the Tories and BP, the Brexit Party actually wins with 223 seats. Alongside the Tories on 113 they can form a slim majority (336).
If we bump the Lib Dem TF up to 50%, the Tory/Brexit coalition actually gets bigger, with a combined 345 seats.
If we then drop the Tory TF to 25%, we get a totally hung Parliament in which NOBODY can get a majority. Lab+Lib+SNP+Green get 318, whereas Tory+BP get 313, maybe 323 with the DUP.
And if we then drop the Brexit Party TF to 25%, Labour need the Lib Dems AND the SNP to get a majority of 4 (but several of those Labour MPs are probably Leavers).
But if we bump *everyone’s* TF up to 75%, the Brexit Party crush it with 300 seats, added to 80 Tories for a comfortable no-deal coalition.
EVEN TAKING THE NUMBERS FROM THE MOST FAVOURABLE POLL FOR YOUR ARGUMENT, there’s basically no permutation that gets us anywhere for indy, and almost all of them still result in Brexit majorities.
The only one where it’s even *possible* to have a Lab/SNP coalition where we get both a new EU ref and a new indyref is an election where Labour start in the lead and there’s no, or next to no, tactical voting at all. And that, I’m afraid, is a madman’s fantasy.
(Even before you account for things like the Kinnock Factor.)
You’re trying to apply two-party logic to a five-party election. It doesn’t work.
Aye, let’s have ah Friday night rammy like hehe
May one just contribute fuck and cunt… in that order, thx
People Over Perth ra morra People
Let’s go POP!
Wings Over Scotland is fucking excellent!
After the actions of the SNP in Westminster this week, namely, taking over the order paper, thus blocking a no deal Brexit and forcing the UK government into accepting whatever terms we are given by the EU, because we are not prepared to walk away without a deal, killing our bargaining power, effectively humiliates the UK government but more importantly, its people, making them and us, permanent ignominious supplicants. If I were the English, I’d remember this treachery, and come independence say to us, ”You betrayed us at a critical juncture in our nations history when the chips were down” . . .If you think we’re ready to do a deal with you, forget it”, . . . ”You are at the back of the queue.” The SNP forgets, that one third of I’ts voters voted to leave the EU. Any Scottish Nationalist Party that wants to take us back in, will never get my vote!
I don’t agree that Labour would make an agreement with the LibDems. The LibDems are tories and would’nt agree to major aspects of Labour’s domestic agenda.
The polling figures are biased because of the effect of the polemical right wing media. Once into an election campaign and equal media access is mandatory I think the Labour vote will increase as in 2017.
Interesting article.
Two things – both Pete wishart and John swinney will be speaking at auob Perth tomorrow. In Aberdeen all of the snp approached blanked the rally. Maybe it’s only due to an impending election. If it is (and nothing to do with using the mandate before 2921) then they’re unwise – as they must know that at least half those voting snp will switch to the greens and maybe wings come 2021. That’s a certainty.
Some interesting conversations about our EU extending and allowing so-called Brexit, indefinitely like
Interesting…
Would make the hard English Nationalists go crazy hehe
But can we wait that long?
Where is the end?
Independent Scotland is the start
Slightly O/T
Read into this what you want:
Airbus informed ex-pat internals this week that they are now able to register to a job swap scheme. Meaning EU personnel in UK can swap with UK personnel in EU doing similar functions.
Actions speak louder than politicians rhetoric.
======
p.s. I think Stu has every right to shake the apple-cart but I still have faith in the SNP. I don’t have faith in the spook infested Scottish government.
Pundits on here citing claim of right, EU, UN and human rights being on our side need to seriously consider what happened to Catalonia. Not the referendum but the aftermath. This is the reality.
EU, UN directives etc are not worth the paper they are written on. Courts wash their hands. Political direction and perceived advantage of individual States trumphs all. The evidence is laid out in front of us if we care to see it.
Lets try to see the big picture and not let brexit cloud everything.
Rev
Here’s the link for the latest poll which put Tories and Labour on 28% each and predicts the Brexit Party support doubles if an election is held after Oct 31st.
An ICM poll suggests that support for the Brexit party would double from 9 per cent to 18 per cent if an election takes place after Halloween.
The poll, commissioned by Represent Us — which is pushing for a second Brexit referendum — found the Conservatives’ lead over Labour would evaporate in those circumstances.
The ICM poll suggests the Tories would beat Labour by 37 per cent against 30 per cent in an October election, while the two parties would be neck and neck on 28 per cent in a November poll.
https://www.ft.com/content/75c442dc-cffa-11e9-b018-ca4456540ea6
There are no tables of the full poll that I can find yet so not much use as yet to plug into electoral calculus. One a final point, it’s all speculation of course but the support of the Lib Dems alone might not be enough to form a government.
The SNP with 50+ seats after another election could make all the difference and it may take 3 or more parties to oppose the Tories and form a government. There is simply no way I could see under any circumstances the Lib Dems supporting a no deal Tory party unless they agreed to a second EU referendum.
Yip. Yet another wings article which nails things. Including the utter charde from the SNP.
We voted them in to get us independence, not to prevent England doing what it actually voted for (brexit).
The SNP have become consumed into the madness of westminster, to the extent that they will most likely walk away with nothing, regardless of what happens. It is like they do not even grasp the very basics of political strategy.
I’m sure, however, as we are often told by some on here, any day now, Nicola Sturgeon will reveal her ‘masterplan’, that she has been keeping top secret since 2016. Any day soon..
All talk, no action.
Aye, right.
That’s me finished with Wings Over Scotland. Good bye
One further point, also similarly made by others.
There is no evidence of a huge move for indy in Scotland currently. The direction of travel is in the right direction though.
This is hugely frustrating BUT when people do shift they are also equally slow/reluctant to move back. Extrapolate by decade and we will be independent within 20 years max, assuming the trend continues.
The clusterfuck of the dysfunctional UK might just upset this SLOOOOOW trend though. Based on these personal reflections I think the SNP is doing OK despite clear tactical errors on their part.
There must be a general election due…
Gotta confirmament thru da post, did U?
Hopeless times calls for happy wines
Ahm on the bus
No. 38 like
I prefer it when we are working together instead of throwing rocks. This article reminds me of the Greens telling me the right way to go.
I think the opposition parties have a good plan and having Boris forced into a corner is a vast improvement on the Maybot/DUP command.
The SNP delay is frustrating but I still have faith in Nicola and I will trust her judgement.
On this one I disagree Rev ( I’m sure you don’t care :-). )
er,when did a politician not lie or spin the truth, nothing new here, gosh you just realise this now
Mystic meg can’t predict the future.
In a close margin it is always wrong. Polls can be wrong. Used to try and influence the results. Illegal gerrymandering and money fraudsters.
Is the 38 the one from Misery to Happiness Cactus?
I thought it was the 42 🙂
Half moon, full sun
It’s all happening
What you got to say Wingers like?
Aye LOVE Scotland
Totally out of order
You betcha defo, passing thru Shawlands Cross ra now
The James Tassie bar has Saltires frae the ootside
Is there a sporting game on today or ra morra?
The LibDem condemns were responsible for the mess in the first place.
Cameron, Brown and Clegg now all gone. Johnston will be next.
Rev. Stuart Campbell @ 18:26,
What I’m surprised at is why you care so much, Stu. (Ignoring your current place of residence.) Whatever the result of a likely UKGE, it will be an almighty guddle as far as we can tell. It will likely solve nothing, neither re Brexit nor the revived power struggle between the HoC and the Executive. It could even result in an even more reactonary English supremacist regime in London.
Now I don’t wish any of that on anybody, not on us nor on our English cousins. But what the unavoidable UKGE will almost certainly achieve is to demonstrate conclusively to everyone and their dog, irrespective of political allegiance, that the SNP has the full support of the Scottish electorate. Thereby turning to finely-powdered dust all the nonsense spouted by the BritNat proxies and their ever-ready media collaborators over the last 3 years.
That’s enough. In addition we just need people in Scotland to finally realise and accept that there will be no “cavalry to the rescue” over Brexit, and there is no likely London regime, be it led by Johnson or Corbyn, which will make an iota of difference to that.
How it unwinds after that no-one can tell, but that combination will break this damned Union. Putting all our expectaion on a flawed UKGE alone will certainly not achieve it, but it will be the beginning of the end.
Here’s a prediction but more a premonition Ken500
Tomorrow’s Cairnstoon…
May feature Boris ‘doon a ditch…’
But will he be as deid as ah dodo?!
Apologies if this has been covered already.
The next 4 weeks are pivotal.
If the rebel alliance manage to prevent Boris achieving brexit on the 31st October, then Boris will have failed in his one and only policy.
Conversely, if the PM succeeds, and the U.K. Leaves the EU, then the SNP will have failed to have prevented Scotland being dragged out against its will.
Whoever wins the Westminster election afterwards, will de-fang Holyrood, some people on here will be (more?) despondent, and it may well, genuinely, be generations before Scotland will have another opportunity for independence.
High stakes indeed.
I just hope the SNP have a foolproof plan to secure (instant) independence before the 31st, in case the loose confederation of cross party interests fails to stop the default position of no deal.
Think that it’s possible that Boris could be co-partner in the Brexit party for the election?
Maybe they had a plan.
Anyhoo!
Footie… 🙁
I have so many people in your comments having so many different opinions and guesses.
The Treaty of Union of the Scottish Parliament and the English Parliament was signed by both COUNTRIES. Any one of them has the RIGHT to REPEAL the said Treaty. There is no legality involved.
“ the Rev stu @ 0545”. who says that BJ will even be leading the Tory party into a Nov election? ?
Cactus, Wings over Scotland is fuckin mental.
So is the situation we find ourselves in.
I dont know if Nicola is being a tactical genius, or a damn fool.
I do know if we brexit next month and sre planning on doing anything about it well need these.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/the-return-of-10000-flags-for-yes
No idea.
I’d speculate the long game after 2014 was the SNP’s plan.
Brexit is just something bounced into their lap, This would have necessitated a quick rethink of strategy, as it gave a strong mandate for a “change of circumstances” referendum call earlier than planned.
Bearing in mind, that Brexit is not the only mandate for a new referendum and also, that had A50 never been triggered and an EU ref never held, Independence would still ostensibly have been the SNP’s aim.
Im suggesting that it has been if anything, a distraction and it bounced ‘policy on the fly’. But if we are to talk of mandates and claims of right and sovereignty; then the EU ref handed the Scottish government a mandate to stop Scotland being taken out of the EU. Which was the greater of the two ‘mandates’? A new Independence referendum or ‘Stop Brexit’?
I’d argue it was ‘Stop Brexit. Greater numbers voted, proportionally, against exiting the EU than Polls showed would support Indy. Initially the SNP could naively assume there would be some sort of ‘Soft Brexit’ which wouldn’t be totally economically damaging to Scotland; in which case it could be just generally opposed as a vote gathering campaign. Suddenly, post the snap GE, it turned into a swiftly moving realisation of a probable hard Brexit and the economic woes to Scotland that would entail. Another reason ‘Stop Brexit’ took precedence.
Yes, successfully stopping it for the Scottish electorate, would indeed remove the strong mandate for the second Indyref they found in their lap, but it’s not the only mandate. Again, if the EU ref had never occurred, the SNP would still be trying to find a way to increase the Indy vote and win Scotland her Independence regardless.
The fact that the EU ref bounced a sudden opportunity their way is mere happenstance. There were then suddenly two factions, those who wished to go quickly on a second Indyref opportunity afforded and those who believed in the “Long game”.
Where we are presently is still an opportunity. It enables the SNP to utilise Brexit and its opposing stance, to strengthen the argument and support for Independence. The SNP are still in a position of trying to convince Scotland that Independence is the only way to save it, what else can they do?
Well, very little, they can try and agitate a GE this year giving them the possibility (as I mentioned previously) of a Winter of Discontent and Spring Indyref. We could still nominally be within the aegis of the EU at that point – a transitional zone if you will. The EU themselves may back the position to find out which way a referendum swings before the door finally slams shut.
Or if not a GE, continue agitating through Courts to raise the constitutional issues, whether they even truly believe it has any chance of success, it keeps the issues live. It also increases the chance of unilateral dialogue with the EU; playing the impotency of a non-functioning, unelected non-government at Westminster, against the only currently stable, functioning government in the UK – Scotland (apologies to Wales)
In fact this seems to me to be a fair assesment of what they are actually doing. It is of no consequence whether the SNP are backing coalitions one minute, GE’s the next, or driving court cases – so long as Scotland and her democratic and constitutional deficits, are kept front and centre of the Scottish electorate.
As ever, if we believe Independence to be inevitable and the result of a “process”, then Brexit and being removed from the EU is merely a bump in the road. Until the fates decide, all the SNP can do is be agitators. If that means changing policies on the fly, so be it.
Every extra day wins over those disillusioned with the perfidious actions of Westminster and the Union, wins minds and brings support for Independence. Even if it risks alienating sections of the Independence support.
Ultimately that strategy may mean going to the people of Scotland out to 2021 and saying ” We did what you asked, stopped Brexit before pushing an Indy referendum – now back Independence, or be impotent slaves to fortune and further depravations by that den of rogues”
Is that risky? Hell yes. People who didn’t want Brexit, but were cool on Indy may go back to sleep, job done. Indy Brexiteers might be furious, but the world is upside down, everyone is frustrated, someone is always going to be outraged, everything is risky.
But just maybe, the original long game might just bring enough of Scotland to realise Indy is the only way – be damned to Westminster and their perfidy.
Oh well, Scotland-Russia tonight – it’s the hope that kills ye eh?
North Chiel
I don’t think he was serious about the ditch thing.
UKIP has only ever won 1 seat after a by election. In the 2017 election UKIP got 600,000 votes and did not win any seats,
Brexit exit Party?
@William Purves 7:17pm
Damn right.
Tartanpigsy@7.14
You are wasting your time on this site , only a handful of people have donated , try Scotgoespop ! .
Democracy can only function properly i.e. fairly and proportionately in a Sovereign State which has separated powers and a written constitution.
Those on here that do not understand that need only look at the tin pot ‘democracy’across the water. set up nearly one hundred years ago..the ‘northern Irish province’. An elective dictatorship of protestant ascendancy and oppression set up the ‘Mother(fucker’) of Parliaments : Westminster.. One which eventually tore it self apart and led to the Good Friday Agreement being imposed by the International community to resolve UK/English colonial gerrymandering.
The last three years of bread and circuses conducted by Anglo American neo liberal billionaire consortium of new world zealots acted out by their tory/brexit English elite puppets has always been ‘No Deal’
With no written Constitution; a devious criminal gang of Etonian socipaths and a fraudulent Crown in Parliament rubber stamp to sanction arcane and made up ‘procedures’, Boris the modern version of the ‘wisest fool in Christendom’. This bumbling chancer is a glove puppet who is being controlled and directed. And he is up against a disparate group of charlatans who are a ragbag of losers, even bigger than he .
Unfortunately, the SNP are amongst this scurvy crew. Trying to change the English nascent national movement away from what they want: No Deal and out of Europe. Poor old Boris will be and is portrayed as the victim of these ‘tra itors’. And the SNP may win most seats and nearly the majority of votes in some distant GE ( which they did already in 2015 and did SFA with it). But make no mistake, the English will not forgive or forget our interference in this Brexit Farrageo, but as throughout history punish us, the cash cow, who they hate with a vicious jealous entitlement.
BBC closing down in a disgraceful coup de grace of suppression of free speech, the ‘media Show’ without any warning; the organised loyalist impending continuation of violence on the Glasgow streets, dogwhistled up by the loathsome Annie Wells; the movement of troops and English police into Scotland; refusal to allow Scottish civil servants the right to consult with EU opposite numbers, and the almost certain castration of our Parliament; followed by refusal to recognise the Claim of Right and the mandate for Indy, lead to what? A Catalonian scenario. Why? because we have no asserted sovereignty via a true ‘gold standard’ of International judicial recognition.All Alyn Smith’s chums keeping the ‘lights on’ will mean fuckall in the end.
We are and will remain a British region up and until the 31st of October. The difference is that after that date we are sacrificial goats to be sacrificed on the altar of English Supremacy
Have we now started the bickering among ourselves?
FFS Stuart why did you start attacking the SNP ?
@North chiel
Who can say if Corbyn would be leading the Labour party in a Nov election? I wouldn’t bet on that either.
Robert Louis says:
6 September, 2019 at 6:55 pm
“We voted them in to get us independence, not to prevent England doing what it actually voted for (brexit)”
Speak for yourself. I most certainly did not vote for the SNP to allow a handful of unprincipled and unscrupulous England MP puppets whose strings are being moved by self-serving VIP taxdodgers and USA corporations’ interests, to force brexit on us and to steal my children’s EU citizenship rights and their NHS.
Why is it that you think it is more important for “England” to get what it voted for than for Scotland to get what it voted for and for our children to get what they deserve? What makes you even consider for a fraction of a second that England’s views are more important than those of Scotland in this political union of equals?
What kind of farce is this where we are claiming to push to become independent but first we, according to you and all those who are quite happy to see Scotland forced by our equal partner out of the union against our will and without our consent, claiming that this is good for independence, must swallow the hard pill of defeat in somebody else’s battle and pretend that we are happy to not have any authority in this political union and simply lay back and let England run all over us?
How can we expect anybody in the world stage to respect Scotland’s standing in the world as an independent state when we cannot even assert our own fckng status in this union because we are expected to be happy and actually demanded by some in our own side, it seems, to let our neighbour walk all over us? I find it totally outrageous and frankly incredibly hypocritical and nonsensical that anybody can claim to strongly support independence while castigating our democratically elected government for fighting for what we voted for while demanding for us to let a rogue government elected by our partner do their worst.
Imagine you find yourself in a snowed down mountain. Would you shoot the only horse left, the only one that will take you down simply because you deem that he walks too slowly on the snow? What would you do then, lay on your back and freeze to death or rather walk yourself down even when you will do it even more slowly that the horse? Because, quite frankly, from where I am standing that is how this continuous bombardment of the SNP actually comes across.
Sorry, I but I refuse to swallow the servitude pill. In fact, I will spit back that pill in the face of whoever dares to insist I have to take it and whoever dares to claim that the way to get independence for Scotland is to simply resign ourselves to give England what it wants first, never mind how toxic that is for us.
Hell no, no and one thousand times no. If England wants to leave the EU then it will have to grow the balls to dissolve the union first. This is not England’s union. This is the union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England. If England’s legitimate representatives do not like to see Scotland asserting itself and taking its rightful place of command in this political union they can take a hike, grow the balls to run a referendum in the Kingdom of England, dissolve the union and leave. If England does not take orders from Scotland, Scotland does not take orders from England.
Brexit is not going to bring us independence. The only way we are going to get independence is by forcing those who are behind brexit to realise that the only way they are going to achieve their brexit is by dissolving the union first and letting Scotland go its own way. Only when the KIngdom of England sees that the political bother of keeping us in this political union surpasses the benefits of our revenues and assets, the UK will be dissolved.
So hell yes, go SNP. Go and stop the ViP taxdodgers’ brexit right on its tracks, take the wheels out of their brexit and push for the EU to demand implementation of the VIP tax avoidance laws in the UK in exchange for an extension or an agreement. Make them wail. Because full EU membership is what Scotland gave a mandate for, not for being used, yet again, as a stepping stone by our neighbour to get where it wants to go, only to then sht on us as a reward for not being capable to stand for ourselves.
Wings. Plot. Lost.
You owe the beacon of truth that is our hard working independence focused First Minister an apology.
The United Kingdom is a fucking cunt (are there any stronger words?)
We don’t and can’t control it, like ever
Aye LOVE swearing Yes!
Fucking 42 for you
@Maria F
I’d clap that post but not sure if that’s allowed 🙂 Well said.
I despair. So many regulars on this site (having read and digested what the Rev has said) still don’t get it. How on earth do they expect your average voter to make sense of it all?
“So hell yes, go SNP. Go and stop the ViP taxdodgers’ brexit right on its tracks, take the wheels out of their brexit and push for the EU to demand implementation of the VIP tax avoidance laws in the UK in exchange for an extension or an agreement. Make them wail. Because full EU membership is what Scotland gave a mandate for, not for being used, yet again, as a stepping stone by our neighbour to get where it wants to go, only to then sht on us as a reward for not being capable to stand for ourselves.”
“…and fuck any chance of independence in our lifetimes!”
“I just hope the SNP have a foolproof plan to secure (instant) independence before the 31st, in case the loose confederation of cross party interests fails to stop the default position of no deal.”
SPOILER: they don’t.
“Now I don’t wish any of that on anybody, not on us nor on our English cousins. But what the unavoidable UKGE will almost certainly achieve is to demonstrate conclusively to everyone and their dog, irrespective of political allegiance, that the SNP has the full support of the Scottish electorate.”
They’re currently polling around 40-42%. That’s not even half of the Scottish electorate. Most of the other half HATES them.
‘Nicola Sturgeon is lying about wanting to stop a no-deal Brexit – she just wants to stop Brexit full stop’
A no-deal Brexit is a Brexit therefore she wants to stop it. How does that make her a liar?
She is being consistent with the Scotland’s Place in Europe document produced in 2016
1st choice: UK remains in EU
2nd choice: UK remains in Single Market
3rd choice: Scotland remains in Single Market
If non of these are possible, its independence.
Nigel Farage could possibly be the next English prime minister, its the English population that wants brexit you could see that in the Europe elections, if there’s a general election conservative and labour are going to suffer big losses boosting the brexit party’s chances of putting Farage into no 10.
Apparently BoJo yearns to believe in the Loch Ness Monster.
No doubt this is an orchestrated and pathetic attempt at endearing himself with “the Scotch folks”.
His party’s policies are monstrous so he could do us all a favour and throw himself in the loch, thus we’d be free of him, and he’d satisfy his yearnings, albeit that he himself would actually be the Loch Ness Monster.
That said, the fucker is so toxic he’d probably pollute our fine Scottish waters…
Cheers to the folks that added some input to my request earlier, keep it coming over on Off Topic so as not pollute main thread.
I can’ see the HoC voting for May’s Withdrawal Agreement because it locks UK into the customs union forever.
The PM’s plan isn’t bad – it’s atrocious – Martin Howe QC is a leading barrister in EU law
http://archive.fo/RAQtf
@Rev. Stuart Campbell
You don’t like it much when people disagree with you do you?
Ach well it used to be worthwhile and interesting posting and reading comments on Wings. Now not so much, how you can possibly believe that calling the FM “a liar” is going to help us achieve Independence is beyond me.
That’s the Daily Mails job to slag off the FM and the SNP so it’s surprising that you should instead take up that mantle, and especially so to do it now. Your job we were told was to expose that.
How about telling readers specifically what she said when she lied? This is your claims.
“Nicola Sturgeon is lying about wanting to stop a no-deal Brexit – she just wants to stop Brexit full stop.”
That’s your opinion but the facts don’t back that up, The facts can be found in the paper from Dec 2016 “Scotland’s Place In Europe” where a compromise is proposed.
“Unfortunately, this also means she’s lying about having any real intention of holding a second independence referendum before 2021”
Again that’s just your opinion and until we reach 2021 you have no evidence of Nicola Sturgeon lying since she clearly hasn’t. This was a shit article Rev and I’ll bet even you know it!
“ Great post Maria @0738 pm “ I find it totally outrageous and frankly incredibly hypocritical, and nonsensical that anybody can claim to strongly support independence , whilst castigating our democratically elected government for fighting what we voted for while demanding for us to let a rogue government elected by our partner do their worst” .
Couldn’t agree more Maria and thanks for one of the best posts I have ever read on this blog.
Spot on as usual, Stu. And all these folk throwing their toys out the pram know it and all.
The SNP have failed utterly. What has the party DONE with the last three years? The square root of hee-haw!! Their whole squandered existence seems predicated on pointing out how bad the Tories are, how stupid Labour are, how conniving the LibDems are (and in Holyrood, alienating whole swathes of female indy voters by trying to railroad through their disgusting ‘gender’ laws and forcing schoolgirls to share toilets with boys – WT actual F??).
I tramped round doors for that party in the last election, and donated money to all their indy fundraisers – so I do rather feel like I’ve been taken for a ride. We were promised a say on Brexit – a choice of either Scottish indy or losing our EU citizenship in a UK Brexit. And they’ve done NOTHING to honour that pledge they made to their voters.
So since they’ve done nothing to protect my EU citizenship I’m stockpiling tins for the No Deal car crash, and will be looking to take myself and my professional qualifications overseas at the first opportunity afterwards. To quote the SNP MEP Alyn Smith (who’s incidentally just revealed he’ll be standing as a GE candidate in Stirling at the next election – the SNP are now officially winding up their EU operations!), I imagine some of the EU member states might “ca’canny” and take their pick of the high-tax-paying UK professional classes from the Brexit bargain bin and offer up easy visas. Since we’ll have no freedom of movement there will be no other way off this godforsaken island.
I suggest the rest of you get stockpiling too and start looking for Irish grandparents or easily obtainable foreign work visas. Because Scottish indy is going absolutely nowhere fast, and the UK’s engineered destination as a shock-doctrined Airstrip One is almost complete.
I think it would require Johnson’s resignation as PM and ALSO the resignation of the FULL cabinet.
I’m making an assumption that the legislation drafted to force the government to submit the pre-drafted letter does not require either Johnson by name or any PM to personally submit the letter either in person or via proxy. I have to assume it says ‘the government’ must submit the letter. Without ANY cabinet or PM then, as far as I can tell, there are none who can be compelled to submit this letter.
It’s not about whether he can get around this, I think it’s more about HOW FAR he’s willing to go to get his aim. If such a mass resignation occurred then who would re-appoint anyone? The opposition groups could get control of the order book, submt a confidence vote and win it but STILL there would be a period of two weeks for ‘the government’ to secure a vote of confidence in themselves.
IF such a thing occurred we would be utterly rudderless for at least two weeks, maybe more if Swinson continued to fail to support Corbyn, could be a GE called by the opposition groups (if Tory MPs agreed) but that would add ANOTHER six weeks. The ONLY way through this way of doing things would be if the Queen intervened to ask someone to step in and form some kind of emergency government to submit the letter, call an election and step into ministerial roles (as they continue even in suspensions)in the meantime (probably six to eight weeks)
Johnson is anti democratic by proroguing parliament and lying to get it, opposition parties have prevented debate in the Lords by introducing a guillotine and so no one comes out of this smelling or roses.
The take away from all of this should be that a written constitution is a necessity and conventions MUST be replaced by RULES.
Above all, Scotland needs OUT, sooner rather than later…
I suppose some people just cant handle a robust debate.
Dave McEwan Hill – if you’re serious, then you’re a big fucking baby.
Time for sweeping generalisation here…but the gist of this is close to how things really are.
The core of the SNP leadership are not Scottish Nationalists, more Devo-Maxalists, and it has been so for a considerable time!
They are Socialists who Identify themselves as Scottish!
I repeat –
They are Socialists who Identify themselves as Scottish therefore they are at odds with the Britnat Labour Socialists, who would rather endure a thousand year Tory Reich and/or sell-out most or all of their “principles” in order to gain power at Westminster for their London comrade-bosses – than participate in the government of an independent Scotland.
But also at odds with Scottish Nationalists who identify themselves as socialist … which is why one of their first tasks on taking control of the SNP, was to bind, gag and purge any of that ilk who put their head above the parapet.
The main thing about ideologues is that they must stick to the script and their script has always been “INDEPENDENCE IN EUROPE”, to them, the two are inseparable.
You can leave the UK – Without leaving the UK!
A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single baby-step and baby-steps are all they will ever take unless they are pushed.
That is why they are comfortable linking arms with Unionists, adopting all the Project Fear rhetoric, which they know they will have to eschew, should they find themselves arguing for Scottish independence.
They really do think they NEED the UK to remain in the EU in order for Scotland to leave the UK, If it was otherwise they would have made support for scuppering a no deal Brexit, conditional on the delivery of Indyref2 and the HoL would be debating it right now.
Baby-steps anyone?
I disagree with this article. I had written a whole spiel here but I think quoting Sun Tzu works better:
“Appear weak when you are strong, and strong when you are weak.”
Mind you, by that logic Richard Leonard is the next FM…
War gaming involves looking at all the possible outcomes and scenarios in a competition or battle. It is part and parcel of modern political strategy.
Highlighting possible outcomes is not the same as wanting them to happen.Some of the reactions here are akin to hysteria – ‘you can’t say THAT – what if it happens?’
We saw that the FM changed her mind within a couple of days when different scenarios were put to her, scenarios she hadn’t thought of.
Why hadn’t they occurred to her, did she expect BoJo and Co to play by the rules? Who is advising her?
It’s a temporary warm feeling to be proven right in your doomsday predictions but if you have been shouting them for 2 or 3 years and still no one seems to have taken them on board your levels of frustration must be unbearable. I believe that is what the Rev is demonstrating.
We all hope the SNP have gamed this right but the Brexit Party are waiting to leap in after the 31st of October to say BoJo broke his promise, only we can deliver Brexit. The LibDems are mopping up sappy Better Together Remainers in Scotland.They are creating and spreading rumours of SNP collusion with the Tories which were addressed on MSM. They should never be trusted.
Whether these votes translate into seats, time will tell but those who voted for Brexit are becoming more and more and angry – just the way we would be if Independence was thwarted.
The lessons to be learned are mounting up. We could have given up on stopping Brexit after the revoke A50 vote went against us. I believe that was a good time to walk away but the SNP seem quite giddy on being involved in the machinations of political jiggery pokery.
So at what point do we say enough is enough?
Meanwhile Johnston could resign rather than be compelled to go cap in hand to the EU. And as the Rev has indicated that is another ball game altogether.
The problem is that we have been keeping our powder dry for 3 years. Boredom and frustration is leading to a few itchy trigger fingers and people taking pot shots at their own side.
I’m hoping that once the starting gun is fired we will all be too busy fighting for Indy to remember all this bickering. If not then we may as well take up bridge or fly fishing or something because we will be wasting our time.
@Rev. Stuart Campbell
Is there a list of dubious words/phrases that get a comment diverted into the sin-bin?
Would folk please calm down a bit, what’s the point of losing the plot over the Rev’s informative post is he not entitled to his opinion as well?
Nothing is set in stone just yet, lets not fall apart, but rather rise up to this robust discussion. Storming off in a huff helps no one but other side.
Remember the Rev helped us get here in the first place, if it wasn’t for his blog we’d still be in the dark.
Although most folk in here (including myself) hope the Rev is utterly wrong with regards to Sturgeons action/plan. We must also accept that he could be right. Either way we must hold the line and see this out.
Well said, Breeks at 5.14 pm.
Scotland voted to remain in the EU and not by a small margin. The SNP should never have offered to compromise by settling for a soft Brexit or anything else. They should have asserted our sovereignty and right to self determination.
And where has all this being nice and reasonable got us? Nowhere. Does anybody think the people of England will thank the SNP for keeping them in the EU if they do succeed?
Dave McEwan Hill
Sincerely: Thank you for your years of campaigning for Scottish independence. I hope you never give up that fight till independence is won.
Goodbye Dave.
But, if you change your mind, you know where to find us.
Aw ra best.
Maria F 7.38pm
Excellent post.
@Republicofscotland
We all have opinions, but if that opinion includes accusing someone of lying then it might leave you exposed to retaliation from the person you accuse of lying.
You could be requested to produce evidence of their lying if they believe their reputation may have been damaged because of your opinion that they have lied.
If you can’t produce that evidence, then the least they might be looking for is that you make an apology to that person for accusing them of lying without evidence.
Mind you it could always be found to be fair comment because you believed that what you said was right even though it wasn’t.
I think that SinU will be looking at these comments with some thoughts of satisfaction/comfort.
Better be aware of disruptive infiltration.
Fucksake
What next?
Eat The Rich??
Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
6 September, 2019 at 7:50 pm
“…and fuck any chance of independence in our lifetimes!”
With all due respect, Rev, that will be your opinion. If that is okay with you, I rather stick to mine, which is that we will not get that independence until those in control of the kingdom of England decide we should. Why? Because there is still far too much of interest in Scotland for those in control of the Kingdom of England, not only economically, but also geopolitically.
Moreover, I will even dare to show the audacity of saying that I personally think that we most certainly will not deserve that independence if we are so spineless that we rather succumb to accepting that the vote of the people of Scotland counts less than that of the people of the Kingdom of England in this political union than standing up for ourselves. At some point Scotland has to learn to say no. I think this is as good time as any other to start using the word “NO”.
Sorry Rev. It is a question of pride and total refusal to accept that Scotland is the lesser of two equal partners when it is in fact the one that brings more revenues in natural resources to this union and the one that wastes the less.
I guess that we will have to agree to disagree on the way we perceive how independence will be achieved. However, even with such disagreement I will still not hesitate to give my vote to your party should you run in the list vote in 2021 and we are still in this union.
I guess by then we will know who was right.
We need flags, lot’s of Scottish Salitires, we need more
We need…
This is obviously a darkly depressing day. But I don’t go along with all the bleak conclusions. Wings is a wonderful resource for the independence movement. Your focus on facts are valuable, precise and forensic and I am a long-time supporter. Now I fear that the reverberations of all the Brexit nonsense and the lack of progress on moving towards independence are undermining that brilliant focus, Rev.
We know Boris is a liar, we know Trump is a liar (and someone in the US is counting his lies every day), we know that politicians have often warped agendas and live in a bubble which is far removed from people on the streets. And we are in a horrendous political situation, tied to a Union which is trashing everything in sight.
What matters to most Wings followers is the possibility of breaking loose from this. It seems imperative. But it’s not a foregone conclusion that the population of Scotland will vote for it. There are many whose careers, financial interests, origins (often English, sometimes Northern Irish), and sheer fright lead them to believe that it shouldn’t happen. We live in a selfish age. Plus there are those who don’t think, reflect or take personal responsibility and they fear having to do that in a small independent country. And there are many who think that these aberrations will pass, despite all evidence to the contrary.
So feeling that things aren’t moving, a lot of people are turning on the SNP. Jim Sillars, whose late wife was an SNP stalwart; Kenny MacAskill who was Justice Minister and found consensus hard to forge, journalists who need a new theme. Bloggers, factions. The First Minister stands accused of not making independence her total focus, and using Brexit to further it. But think on. What happens if the SNP were to lie back and let it happen, and then not achieve a positive outcome in indyref2? The First Minister has rightly said she is elected to govern in Scotland for all citizens. She would not be perceived as a competent leader of this country if she did otherwise. That’s what will deliver independence. That, and a willingness to hold on, stick together, and recognise that the SNP are at present our best hope for getting out of this mess. Not splintering, infighting. And a good international reputation is also useful.
I agree with Gavin Alexander at 2.08pm
Republicofscotland 20:43 well said, two things that have struck me, the amount of long term posters like dmh who have gone off in the huff and the amount of folk I cannot recall posting before having a go at the Rev. One thing is for sure there is no better Political Analyst in the UK than Stu. Therefore if he says something its worth listening to whether you agree to it or not. The fact of the matter is that Parliament is prologued at latest thursday next week and does not sit again until mid October where the Queens speech will need to be heard and debated. So as the Rev says, what happens if Boris refuses to request an extension to Article 50? He just needs to play them along for a couple of days then resign as PM and there would be no time to have an election before Oct 31 Its also not a given that the EU will grant an extension, messages coming out of Finland who hold the EU Presidency just now the other day said that there was not a consensus for agreeing to the article 50 extension. I cannot understand what the rebel alliance are playing at stating that they will not try for an election until November , we will be out by then. Being kind to them I think they know they will lose and Labour dont want the poisoned Chalice of dealing with the aftermath of a no deal brexit, Best to let Boris take the heat for a few weeks and then they might have a chance. Where this leaves Indyref2 I have no idea, hopefully the SNP have a plan , one thing for sure, its going to be an interesting SNP conference in Aberdeen mid October, cant wait 🙂
Eat ra rich, aye fuck indeed
Fuck these fuckers
Are they cunts?
It is good to be normal
NB FUCK THEM FUCKERS!
can’ = can’t in above post.
BTW it is quite logical for Nicola Sturgeon to want to stop a no deal BREXIT and to stop BREXIT at the same time. No lie needed.
They are
Don’t look away
Stay central.
Glasgow, that is
Rev Stu is cunting excellent…
Let that be known, right fucking NOW
Fuck the doubters
Yer dicks
Robert P is the word
Petra is gone… Good
Aweright Rab P?
He’s ma buddy
Alex Salmond “on the streets, in the courts, in Parliament, Boris Johnson is under seige”
https://newsvideo.su/video/11382088
Hey Ian Brotherhood…
Dinnae go too hard on Robert Peffers.
He’s a fucking legend like
Robert has his ways
Aye ken
@Lochside (7.33) –
I have just read your comment there and want to state right now, before I read any of those following, that I support what you’ve written.
It’s powerful, sobering stuff.
I got a message from an ex-Winger earlier who had popped in for a rare swatch. He said it was (is) in meltdown. So I don’t know what follows your comment but am just about to find out.
And may God have mercy on my soul…
😉
Let’s get ah rahhhhhhy ah gaun
Westminster is a cunt
Better that
@Lenny Hartley
“So as the Rev says, what happens if Boris refuses to request an extension to Article 50?”
You might have missed this Lenny, there are rules and one thing’s for sure if he resigns then “something” will happen.
https://wingsoverscotland.com/hopeless-times/comment-page-1/#comment-2485181
Ah’ve never sweared SO much in THIS life…
SO we LOVE… do we
Ahm getting background
Fuck No
“You might have missed this Lenny, there are rules and one thing’s for sure if he resigns then “something” will happen.”
The slight hitch being that neither you nor apparently anyone else has the slightest idea what.
“ Lenny Hartley @0930 pm” what happens if Boris refuses to request an extension to article 50 . What happened to the revoke article 50 option then??
RM@7.55
Farage as PM.
I posted the very thing a while back.
Wif Waf Johnson, is a clueless idiot, Farage is an ignorant, racist, clueless nobody,( I would include dangerous, but he is just another FUD who runs away, Scottish pub anyone?) but if Engerland fall for the tripe? Farage is what they will get and the UK will be well and truly FKD.(its hard to imagine it could be worse than the present.)
And Scotland??? Will we have the BALLS to take control of our destiny??
Time will tell.
Attacking the only party who can give us the dream we desire is pointless, as the rest of the establishment media do that daily.
Perth tomorrow woohoo.
Yes, well said, Lochside.
I see Alyn Smith is now seeking the nomination for prospective parliamentary candidate for Stirling at the next GE.
So much for “we will not be taken out of the EU against our will”.
“Mind you it could always be found to be fair comment because you believed that what you said was right even though it wasn’t.”
Disagree and argue all you want, but trolling just to be a dick won’t cut it here. Watch yourself.
As I understand the constitutional position – if Boris Johnson resigns (or even if he doesn’t) the Queen can appoint anyone she like to form a government. Frankie Boyle would be a good choice, But I would guess she’d go for someone a bit more mainstream.
The SNP have to be more radical to achieve independence, AUOB are doing their bit maybe the SNP are behind them hard to say, when you have to tow the party line your restricted in what you can say and do, a pity every politician wasn’t an independent & not scared to say their piece.
@Rev. Stuart Campbell
“Watch yourself”
Fuck you.
Newsnet went off piste, Bella went nuts and now Wings has joined the chorus.
I was a supporter of the Wngs Party idea but not now with this insight.
Thank you for all your hard work up to now. The WBB was genius. I only wish you had stuck to a facts based blog.
Nicola Sturgeon has been TALKING about independence but that is all. It`s like i can keep telling the wife that I`m going to cut the grass but she will only take my intention seriously if she actually sees me doing it.
NS efforts are all about Brexit when she should let the unionist clowns deal with their own mess and allow them to implode.
I now believe she does not want another referendum at least not on her watch as she is terrified at the prospect of dealing with the complications of a withdrawal from the UK.
Politicians are politicians and will will try to put the best gloss on any outcome. I don’t believe that Nicola Sturgeon has lied, there are conflicting statements/tweets but the old adage is when the facts change I change my mind.
The SNP don’t need to persuade someone like me to vote for independence but a swath of soft unionists. If they aligned themselves with the Tories, become the only party to do so and vote for an election prior to trying to achieve an EU extension then I believe you can kiss goodbye to a Yes vote as the unionists and MSM will crucify them.
At this minute all the UK parties are biding their time before they turn on the SNP, they are needed just now so these parties are quite (except the Tories obviously). But as soon as there is some agreement the media and these parties will let loose.
There is no such person as an infallible tactical genius, they used to claim this about Gordon Brown, now we know the truth. The current situation is a minefield for pretty much all the parties, you need to stay nimble on your feet.
So everything the Rev predicts may come to pass, depressing as it is, but I’m trying to stay on the positive side just now.
Has everyone been drinking? Is there something in the water?
Who says that the SNP hasn’t been in close contact with the Rev these past few days, months, years 🙂
May the Force be with you.
Before I go may I thank all the brilliant contributions I have enjoyed over all the years from very many determined, clever and decent folk on this site. Many of them have gone and more will now follow.
I will not miss the pretendy supporter plants of which there is now a growing proliferation which have been devaluing this site.
Nor will I miss the seriously naive who are reacting to unionist attempts to use the impatience we all feel by attacking an SNP now in its strongest ever position.
That there is an attempt to undermine our leadership is not in doubt and that some of it (or indeed most of it) comes from elements in our movement and inside the SNP. It would be very remiss indeed for our enemy if the British State had not achieved this and anybody who believes otherwise is seriously stupid.
Might have been useful of Stu had talked to the actual leadership of the SNP. Not to agree with it but to talk to it and understand what it is doing and why.
Final point. Brexit would be very damaging to our prospects for independence. It would be much harder for Scotland to become independent from outside of the EU and facing a border with England which would be used relentlessly against us.
Sadly all people don’t seem to understand this.
Our best bet is from within the UK still in the EU with the EU at our back and offering us immediate accession.
That is why Brexit should be stopped.
That is why the SNP is trying to stop Brexit.Independence will be much more easily achieved from inside the EU than from outside it.
Finally a thanks to Stu for his most of his sterling work and for publishing a couple of my articles on Wings. I am very sad right now but I’ll survive
March 2017:
The FM will request an s30.
PM May: Now is not the time.
Fast forward two-and-a-half years to September 2019:
The FM will request an s30.
Is it any wonder people are losing faith in the SNP?
They appear to be a one-trick pony. The best they have come up with since 2014 is repeating their failed strategy from five years ago.
Oh…the controversial blogger mantle is it then today?
Hahahahahahaha….
“If you can keep your head, when all about are losing theirs”
Everybody!!!
Just because Westminster is in meltdown, doesn’t mean we have to join them.
Let’s all call it quits. Take the rest of the night off and Rev, a contribution from the pen of Mr Cairns might lift the mood. How about dropping him an email?
G’night all – keep the heid/faith.
Alba Gu snooker loopy!
@ DMH – I do hope you carry on posting here. I appreciate your insight onto the SNP and and supporters on the ground. It’s great to get some news from the west coast too.
Dave Mcewan Hill,
Bye then.
Well, dunno about anyone else but I’ve just caught up with the comments since late afternoon and have thoroughly enjoyed it. Too many noteworthy comments to choose from, ‘twould be unfair to name names.
Feels like the auld days on here!
What WOS cannot do, and never has been able to do, is an annual ‘staff party’ where regulars can have a face to face rammy, a snog/fist-fight/drinking competition, slander one another ‘off the record’ etc…those nights are vital pressure-releases for all concerned and are observed by societies globally.
Perhaps this thread is ‘The WOS Office Christmas Party’?
🙂
So go on and fill yer boots one and all!
The same political problems and tensions will still be there tomorrow morning. Whether or not we add personal squabbles to them is a matter of personal choice.
And personally? I choose not to give a solitary fuck.
@ Cactus, re Robert Peffers, I hear ye man. I just said what I felt was appropriate and tried to do it without being aggressive or insulting. People I know and respect (who you also know) have repeated and/or confirmed the concerns about his behaviour. He owes apologies to some folk here. Up to him whether or not he does it. ‘Auld Bob’ is a great educator, aye, and no-one can ever take that away from him. He’s been a major presence btl on this site for many years now and will always figure in any objective analysis of why it has become the great resource it is. But his interpersonal skills are, let’s just say, ‘underdeveloped’. Sad, aye, but true. I bear no personal ill-will for the man. He is a remarkable character, and if I’m even a fraction as active – if I ever reach that age – I’ll be, well, I’ll be fuckin knackered!
Have a braw night folks – Scotland fucked up at the fitba, so ‘normal service’ has, in one way at least, been resumed!
😉
SNP right to play the long game and gradually persuade those who five years ago would never consider voting for self government.
Just when this strategy seems to be winning why is it that many folk coming out the woodwork with their own pet agenda which they are putting before independence.
Once we take back our nation then you can promote whatever cause you feel strongly about. Scotland is now a very different place to England and you are sadly mistaken if you think the UK will be open to new ideas following Brexit.
latest polls show SNP set to gain absolute majority at Holywood particularly if the Greens agree to contest list seats only which they should be encouraged to do without fringe indy groups taking votes away from them.
Alex Salmond is advising everyone who does not want to crash out of the EU on 31st October 2019 with a NO Deal Brexit not to agree to a Boris Johnson election. It is a tory trap
https://twitter.com/Sandybbfan/status/1169520799675551744
From Nana’s links. Looks like Alex is taking an interest in current affairs. Surprise.
Bob Mack says:
6 September, 2019 at 4:11 pm
@Hamish 100,
You sound like a jilted acolyte. Try thinking for yourself.
Neither jilted nor an acolyte.
I think for myself thanks. Don’t need a petendy Rev to tell me how I should think. Got it?
Subbed a comment at 10.17 and it’s ‘in moderation’.
Have been through it umpteen times and can’t see any ‘banned’ words.
FFS!
🙁 🙁 🙁
ta stu,
this is a great & timely post.
i love this blog & am familiar with all of the btl contributors who ye’v managed to split doon the line, weel done you
you have certainly hit the nail on the head at the most crucial time in our history
its now all or nothing
uk gov may seem shambolic, but they are still in total control
scotgov will not ever take or get the upper hand
EU talk but willnae do the walk till uk leave but that will be too late
wid drive ye tae drink
@Hamish100,
Thought you were off ? Or just reading for free now? I did get it. You can’t have an opinion for yourself that’s not in the SNP handbook. No loss.
“Fuck you.”
Have it your way.
“Might have been useful of Stu had talked to the actual leadership of the SNP”
Ha ha. What makes you think they’d lower themselves to talk to the likes of me?
Like many commenting here, I’m deeply disturbed by this negative depiction of NS and the SNP as liars. You’ve actually pictured her standing next to ‘Stop Brexit’ signs for Chrissake! By all means express an opinion but to what end? What does it achieve, lumping them in with all the Britnats? Division is what they hope for, and division is what they’re getting in this article.
I’ve been a staunch supporter of – and financial contributor to – WoS. But I will not stand by and allow you to undermine the Indy cause for who knows what purpose. Without the SNP there is no chance of Independence. Ever. Full stop. No amount of Wee Blue Books will produce the hard political clout of the SNP.
You may well disagree with their methods, but I have literally just read about a poll predicting the SNP will take every single Scottish Tory seat at the next GE. That is a clear indication of a successful political strategy. Our primary aim in the Indy movement is to convert fellow Scots. Here is a clear indicator that we/the SNP are doing just that. Your sniping is nothing but counterproductive to the cause.
“You may well disagree with their methods, but I have literally just read about a poll predicting the SNP will take every single Scottish Tory seat at the next GE.”
So fucking what? They had 56 out of 59 before and where did it get us?
You been drinking tonight?
@George,
So, do you believe the Scottish public were ever going to vote Tory,Lib Dem or Labour instead given what has occurred over the last three years?
The SNP mitigate for Tory policy. Labour are just about lying in the ditch prepared by Boris for himself and the Tory party ,and the Lib Dems are viewed as somewhat tory lite
How else would Scotland vote?
Bob Mack.
I was watching the football. More entertaining than this blog at the moment.Amazing that you want posters on here – some much longer on here than me to head off.
Strange that.
PS
never read the snp handbook. On the other hand if you and others aren’t in the snp what is you problem?
Most activists will remain active for the cause. This is just a blog after all.
That poll was not a poll of individual Tory seats in Scotland anyway, just applied 1 voteshare to all 13
Scotland’s Deputy First Minister
@JohnSwinney
will be speaking at the #AUOBPerth Rally Tomorrow ???????
and will be at the front of the March at the #AUOB banner alongside Local MP
@PeteWishart
???????
https://twitter.com/Neil_MacKay5/status/1169930477513388034?s=20
For everyone who says the SNP don’t turn up at marches.
I under moderation as well!
Night of the long nails ..miaoww
I see BBC Newsnight has a new logo (new to me anyway), very 1930’s styling.
Hope we’re not going to see people banned for swearing!
@Hamish 100,
Why you still reading the blog? God forbid anybody question the SNP. You want to introduce Gulags for political re-education?.
Thanks Ian Brotherhood….I always enjoyed your humorous and erudite contributions from the earliest days on this site. I’ve noted that like me, you and many valued past contributors such as Tam Jardine have become sporadic or disappeared completely.
The site has become dominated not by Unionist trolls but by sleepwalking sychophants who have a blind faith that by pleading with the Imperialist British American Project we will be ‘allowed ‘ our REF and by default our liberty.
Well I have got news for you lot of babes in the wood, ‘it will not be alright on the night’ when they close down Holyrood. Let’s see the ‘arched eyebrow’ Alyn Smith, another complete charlatan, leading us to the barricades then, while the EU look the other way.
Boris Johnson is a salutary lesson about the foolishness of making a TV personality – for that is all he is – into a political leader. The United Kingdom has been gradually falling apart for years. Johnson is now shortcutting what is left of the process.
And stop squabbling with fellow Scottish nationalists. That’s all just subjective.
Morth Chiel, exactly, but you would not get labour agreeing to it, as far as i can ascertain, they are pro Brexit but want a deal.
Thenpr, those rules are all very well, but the earliest the Parliament can be Prorouged isthis coming Monday, its not back until two weeks before brexit day, the Queens speech and debate will hooverup another few days, so I dont think you will have time to put a new PM in place,probably why they have not selected a deputy PM.
@Lochside,
Alan Smyth will be manning the barricades in Stirling apparently ,where he hopes to be elected. Seems to have given up on Europe.
Thank you Stu for taking the time to collect all the data analyse and present here.
From what I have read and seen over the months you are spot on. My worry is no in fighting within SNP members by those who want status quo and those like me pushing hard for Indy.
We are seen as trouble at best , and potential terrorists at worst.
It’s so so sad that many in SNP are really unionists at heart.
I fear a total mess.
I am in Canada at present, might be where I end up in a year or two.
I rarely post anything BTL on Wings, usually because someone else has made the same point before I’ve thought of it.
But there is another reason…….I have no wish to say something which might harm the cause of Scottish Independence.
So, I have a wee suggestion for all of my fellow Independence supporters.
Before you post here or on Twitter or Facebook, indeed even before you speak to other people anywhere, please take a second or two to ask yourself a question.
Will what I say, help the cause of independence or will it hinder it?
If you are not sure it will be helpful, please, don’t say it.
Morven M
Ah, now I understand why Alyn Smith has opened a new office in Stirling – trying to get him cosy with the locals before he loses his job after Brexit.
I signed the nomination form for Stephen Paterson a couple of weeks ago so it would seem there will be a contest to choose our next candidate.
Tricky, because we have loyalties here and Stephen has been campaigning faithfully for the last couple of years, in all weathers, to try and win back his majority.
Can’t wait to be free of Kerr as our MP. Certainly not representing the constituency as we voted 68% Remain and he was on the radio at lunchtime roundly supporting Boris.
Capella, I’m sure a few people have been drinking but I believe Stu’s post has allowed more people the courage to say what they believe.
There has been a loud and assertive core on here that have the mantra of “brook no dissent” when it comes to criticism of the SNP strategy or lack thereof that has has been partially successful in stifling debate.
I’ve lost count of how many people on this forum with differing views from this clique being called trolls or Unionist plants. The post from Dave McEwan Hill is a timely example of how everyone who disagrees with him and his ilk are not “clever or decent” folk.
Obviously, it goes without saying that as a critic of the SNP haphazard approach to independence, I’m a pretend supporter of self-determination.
So Capella, in my view, today the damn has quite simply burst and some people don’t feel as anxious about voicing their concerns or lack of confidence in SNP strategy.
Of course, this is just my opinion and I don’t particularly like an echo chamber, I like discussion and debate.
I’m sure people who don’t like disagreements will be throwing their toys out of the pram just now.
Rev. Stuart Campbell @ 19:53,
Well, let’s wait and see. But if Ruth Davidson can claim a “win” when the SNP losea few handfuls of HoC seats to the Cartel, the SNP can rightly demonstrate the same in reverse. Sauce for the gander and all that. That’s my point here. “Momentum.”
It’s not the desired end point, I grant you, but a significant regain of position would demonstrate shifting opinion. And there is an ongoing shift in opinion, remarked upon by Prof. Certice but also observed anecdotally here on the ground with an accumulation of stories of former no voters now rethinking their position or actually declaring an intention to vote yes.
This is happening now and it’s a result of Brexit, and the SNP’s reaction to it. (Even if, as Iain Mhor and others recognise, it didn’t seize the unique opportunity with anything like the flexibility and acumen it could – and arguably should – have.)
There’s maybe 25-30% of voters who are committed BritNats who do actively “hate” (as you put it) the SNP. That’s the situation we have to live with, and what has bedevilled the independence movement from the get-go. Not the fault of the SNP, who from their deeds have never deserved that. Terminally short-sighted people who can’t see their chains and resent anyone pointing out they are shackled by them.
But we don’t need these laggards. There are enough people, unlocked by the lesson of Brexit, who are now open to change. It only takes 50%+ to win (not 60% as some assert). They just need to be more fully engaged and inspired.
And we only have to win once.
Reply to Bill Hume,
The main leaders ain’t helping the cause while many of us are on the streets protesting, helping with 1st aid,organising these events, running yes hubs,and commenting about what our leaders are not doing.
If you want to be silent and trust them fine.
But don’t call us out for working hard for the cause and criticising those who just stay in elected posts protecting their salaries.
I’m a SNP voter since 1978 and, at the moment, I don’t know what they are doing regarding getting Independence.
Their stance on Brexit makes sense if they don’t intend on calling Indyref2. In that scenario you’re focus would be, as now, totally concentrated on minimising the damage.
If you intend on calling Indyref2, then you should be letting the Brexiteers get on with it and campaign on getting out of the union. The SNP have an easy stance available of saying that on such an important issue the countries differ and so it is time to end the union.
@Robert J Sutherland.
You rather make Stu,s point. Yes, the SNP are on course to do very well in elections to Holyrood and Westminster, but to what end ? What are they going to do with that Majority?
I for one don’t know. Can you enlighten me?
Reply to Ian McCubbin
That’s the kind of knee jerk post which does not help the independence cause.
I don’t mind different views within the independence movement, I just wish people would think a bit more before posting stuff.
Geordie
“What does it achieve, lumping them in with all the Britnats”
They are lumping themselves in with the Britnats, singing in harmony with them over this stop the Full English Brexit caper.
Every time I switch on the radio, I half expect to hear Ian Blackford, or one of our hitherto anonymous MP’s telling us, that we won’t be able to go to Benidorm for our holidays(even if we could afford it, which will be very unlikely) and that our Grandads corpse will be exhumed and sent back to Poland.
Or someothersuch Project Fear Pish.
What is going to happen when our former No voters, currently wobbling on the fence just now, with all the trouble and strife at WM, realise that if, if, they ever decide to choose YES, as many are currently thinking of doing….
It will be of no more constitutional value than our votes currently are.
Poor deluded fuckers actually think, that Indy is their gift to give (which it should be), and do not realise what an absolute battle we are facing, and what a rigged game it all is, just to get a level playing field.
I think this is something we need to wake them up to… and then offer hope.
Scotland needs to go to the ballot box – it no longer matters if its an Indy Ref, a PV, a GE or a SG election.
It needs to be fairly held and run. And it needs to be about Scotland’s Right to Choose.
A s30 order (an agreement signed by Unionist Government in Westminster) that they ‘pinkie promise’ to respect the outcome. Don’t make me fucking laugh. Those lying bastards can’t be trusted. It would not be worth the paper its written on. That is how demonstrably low the Government in England is now proven to be – on the international stage.
But the vote itself. The result of that. That is what scares the shits out of them.
Everything is all up in the air at the moment, or so it seems, except that, every day, and in every household, people are waking up, looking at this mess and saying, ‘this is no right’, and all the way down to their bones, and all their lives experience tells them, ‘we can do a damned sight better than that’.
Remember when in 2014 they said, ‘my heart says yes, but my head say’s no’. Well now the question is, ‘what’s their guts telling them’.
I don’t know the what or the mechanical how of the deliverance of our Indy. But I know how to stand up and be counted. And I’ll not be sitting down anytime soon.
Hamish Henderson wrote, after the WW2 battle in the Middle East.
‘There were no gods, and precious few heroes.’
And that’s where we are now, and I wouldn’t have it any other way. Just a bunch of thrawn Scots (auld and new), standing up for what’s right.
Aye we can.
Agree with just about all of that except the headline. I don’t think it’s hopeless – perhaps it seems that way with the current incumbents in parliament – but have faith in the people. The result and consequences of the EU referendum were unequivocal. Overall the UK voted to leave, but the UK is merely a union of nations and the desires and wishes of its constituent parts must be paramount. The UK must exit from the EU as soon as possible, but the option to remain aligned politically and economically should be a decision for each nation. Should Scotland and NI decide to remain, the UK as a political and economic union ends. In these circumstances, Ireland would be in all but name, unified – but its constitutional future should properly be a decision for the whole of Ireland.
England (and Wales) made a brave decision. There is an overwhelming desire to take back control – not just its sovereignty from Brussels – but from the corrupt and dishonest cabal within the British Establishment that have exercised and abused their power for far too long. It isn’t a democracy when parliament is subservient to the square mile just to the east of Westminster.
Away from the south east and the trophy county towns, England is in a mess economically and socially – a significant majority of the electorate ignored and left to stagnate in favour of the easy takings and riches from international finance. On the bankers terms of course. The City controls and facilitates the off-shore network of private finance – a conduit for the Philip Green’s of this world to stash much hard earned money and savings from the common people.
The vast wealth inequality must end. As must the masquerade as a global military superpower. William Waldergave gave an excellent interview the other night when he described England as being a middle sized country with an interesting history and island culture. Empire is over; much of England have realised that for years – but its self-serving remnants are still dragging the country down.
It’s a delicious irony that the principle architects of Brexit may yet end up as the ones who stand to lose everything, especially if civil war breaks out. And I think that is not an unfortunate but realistic prospect given the political machinations. Incompetent, corrupt, dishonest, untrustworthy he may be, but Boris Johnson is absolutely correct on one matter – the UK must leave the EU on 31 October, even though it means the end of the UK as we know it. And Westminster too.
I suspect Boris realises this – he may be a clown but he isn’t stupid. It’s what the vast majority of English people want. What happens next will provide them with the identity and destiny they very much desire – and deserve. I’ve lived in England most of my life, support an independent Scotland taking responsibility for its own future – but understand the views of my neighbours down here. Most would be delighted if Scotland became independent – the Union isn’t really a priority for them. Leaving the EU is.
Dangerous times, but not hopeless, Stu. As mush as I despise the right-wing group leading the charge for no-deal, it is the rebels and opposition MPs (whose opinions are cogent and greatly respected) who are thwarting the democratic will of the English people by seeking to delay or abandon the entire process. This legislature can’t solve the problem – the UK is on borrowed time and Westminster as a sovereign parliament is finished.
The English have an enormous task ahead. Wish them luck.
AlanM at 7.46
“I despair. So many regulars on this site (having read and digested what the Rev has said) still don’t get it. How on earth do they expect your average voter to make sense of it all?”
Yes I am always surprised by that as well, and these regular contributors are politics and independence daft.
So what hope the ordinary voter.
During the Scottish Referendum Barroso said Scotland could only join the EU under Article 49.
Had Scotland voted yes in 2014, the UK as the member state would have had to invoke Article 50.
“If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.”
Can’t think of a better reason why David Cameron had the EU Referendum.
Had Theresa May’s Withdrawal Agreement been agreed by parliament, the UK would have left its treaties with the EU in March 2019, but it would still be in the EU under the ‘transitional arrangement’
This scenario is no different to the UK requesting for an extension.
Both have the same outcome…
https://uk.practicallaw.thomsonreuters.com/2-631-7191?transitionType=Default&contextData=(sc.Default)&firstPage=true&bhcp=1
“A tracker showing adopted and key anticipated EU legislation that is due to either apply or be implemented in the UK before Brexit and during any agreed transition period (including up to 31 December 2022).”
A future independent Scotland intending to join the EU under Article 49, would need to have new EU legislation ‘in place’ by the time the dissolution of the UK takes place.
The extension has the same effect as the transitional period so the timetable is still on schedule.
Bob Mack says:
6 September, 2019 at 10:48 pm
@Hamish 100,
Why you still reading the blog? God forbid anybody question the SNP. You want to introduce Gulags for political re-education?.
There is a difference in questioning a policy decision or a particular stance. Although if you not a SNP member what’s th problem? Another stating the the FM is a liar. Is that to difficult for you bob Mack to understand.
It’s like writing some comments that some may seem as unwise e.g. May be interpreted as homophobic and then asking others to pay your court fee’s. You provide succour and a well needed diversion for the Unionists. A little forethought would avoid this.
For me I believe the Rev is mixing it.
As for Gulags? Really is that the best you can do?
Interesting, interesting comments indeed.
I’m still wondering though, in that parallel universe, where A50 and the EU referendum did not happen, what would be be discussing?
How best to achieve Independence no? What would the prime factor be for that, if not convincing the majority of Scots that Independence is “the way”
Is this not the heart of the matter, does the method merit more discussion than that fundamental issue? If not, then can we observe aloof, and wonder whether the current situation either increases reasons for Independence or decreases it.
The entire concept of Independence transcends party lines, it is an ideal, an ideal which arises within a people. This shitshow is merely grist to the mill. If the SNP misstep or fail the ideal, the ideal does not fail. In or out the EU, the ideal does not fail. To misquote Voltaire : if independence didn’t exist, we’d have to invent it.
So, does this incidental political period of happenstance, create favourable conditions where the people of Scotland may decide to reinvent themselves and if not, why not?
When a people are finally bored with the past and ultimately decide to invent themselves, then they are bound by no master and no history. No-one will care for the minutiae of their rise but historians.
But to be fair to all here, the minutiae entertains us, we feel we must be witnesses and apologists to history. Why not,
Oh aye – we got gubbed by Russia by the way…
It’s the hope that kills ye.
@ Breastplate – I have my own disagreements with SNP policy – notably their stance on gender issues – but I don’t believe they are unionists!!!
The goal is independence and by building support in Scotland they are at the point of winning it. Stopping BREXIT makes a lot of sense – in fact, it’s the only sensible thing for the UK and Scotland to do. A majority in Scotland support that.
The only question is – when to call Indyref2. Nicola Sturgeon suggests next autumn – but that might be brought forward id circumstances are aright.
It’s still not guaranteed that the UK will BREXIT. We’re still in the EU. A little more patience is required.
Falling out with other independence supporters isn’t going to help IMO.
I’ve been reading this blog, withan occasional comment ,ever since it became available,
Giving facts and figures, debunking those which the unionist supporting press printed, also which the “better together” group whose facts were less than honest.
That was excellent work,and really contributed to the cause.
Whereas this particular posting, is not the Rev of yesteryear, with his language today,it’s to me, an indication of frustration .
Isn’t it about time for a Broontervention? There’s nae been one for….oh ten or eleven days.
“Now I don’t wish any of that on anybody, not on us nor on our English cousins. But what the unavoidable UKGE will almost certainly achieve is to demonstrate conclusively to everyone and their dog, irrespective of political allegiance, that the SNP has the full support of the Scottish electorate.”
They’re currently polling around 40-42%. That’s not even half of the Scottish electorate. Most of the other half HATES them.
@Ken500
I have been banging on about voter % and turnout for years.
And it seems to be sinking home.
42% of the vote in a GE may well get you 56 out of 56 MPS, but it still the losing side in a referendum if the Yoons do the only thing they can do, (and where they got their name)and UNITE.
The fact that “hates” in the mix helps the hardening process. And the Yoons lock shields and remorselessly advance.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02616-2
No news yet as to how the Scottish government will protect Scottish elections and referendums from digital attack. Why, even postal votes are to be left in place. If the SNP Government cannot prevent tampering with the postal vote, what chance they will deal effectively with the imminent digital threats from the Westminster Government through its various partners.
“Legislators and regulators around the world are discussing how to respond to the risk of elections being manipulated digitally. At the same time, researchers are actively debating the extent to which this risk is real.
This timely piece of work adds to the base of evidence that voters really can be manipulated in the digital age. Legislators and regulators must take note.”
@Hamish 100,
No ,I can do much better. I think ,indeed hope your pathetically snide comment re homophobia earns you a red card from the Rev mate. People like you usually join groups like the Moon faction or Hari Krishna. You have unwavering loyalty to anything which accepts you in spite of your obvious limitations.
One last point! When the SNP won 56 seats in Scotland it was 2015, some few months after losing Indyref1. It would have been impossible to call Indyref2 so soon after losing the vote.
A lot of water had to flow under the bridge – the Smith Commission, the Scotland Act 2016, the EU referendum 2016, the Holyrood election 2016, the snap GE 2017. Article 50. The Withdrawal Agreement voted down etc etc.
And here we are at the stage when almost anything could happen in Westminster and nobody knows where this is going, with the possible exception of the world’s cleverest man – Dominic Cummings.
Well here’s a thought. If there’s no PM, then there’s no head of UK Government, and can the Cabinet sit if there’s no PM?
So is there actually any UK Government, apart from what usually carries on during say General Election campaigns?
And if there’s no UK Government, then are there actually any reserved powers left to it …
Aye, Stu, has it occurred you you that you may be losing the plot a wee bit?
The SNP may not be the whole answer to achieving Indy, but they are surely going to play the biggest part… This is not Zimbabwe.
Lenny Hartley @1031 , if it comes down to a choice ( for Labour) of “ No Deal “ or revoke “ article 50 “ I would say that this binary option would “ concentrate their minds” . Also I have a strong suspicion that Labour might campaign for “ remain and /or 2nd EU ref in GE .
Bob Mack @ 23:05,
With repect, I don’t believe I do. It’s not about the actual HoC. Yes, we all know that in a normally =ahem= functioning =cough= HoC, an SNP contingent of 40 or 40 or 50 MPs would not (other than in very exceptional circumstances) make a blind bit of difference. In fact, the bigger the contingent, the more likely we would get the predictable cheap jibe from someone in the media that the SNP is impotent anyway. (Which is your and Stu’s point, I think, if couched rather differently.)
But even that attitude alone expressed by anyone on the other side, in the face of substantial voter support, could well produce a backlash, because it is an example in microcosm of what is actually happening “across the board”, and more blatantly now than ever. You may differ, but I believe the backlash effect is not to be ignored. Every previous London administration has been very careful to avoid it, because they all recognised the inherent danger.
No, this is not about influence in the HoC, which has its limitations, as we all know. It’s about influence with voters at home. And once public opinion starts shifting, every gain in every opportune situation amplifies it, until it becomes a kind of social chain reaction. “Nothing succeeds like success”, as the old saying goes.
This is not about WM, it’s about the public-at-large realising to itself that the Union’s game is up. And when that happens,there isn’t an established institution that can stop it. Look at the modern history of Europe for all the proof you need of that.
@Robert J Sutherland 10:59pm
You said “And we only have to win once”.
That premise is becoming less sure with the potential prospect of a People’s Vote” on Brexit. If the SNP in any way shape or form support a second referendum on Brexit, then they are leaving the door wide open for a demand by Unionists for a confirmity vote on the settlement that is agreed for Independence.
I suspect the Unionists are already contemplating scenarios such as this.
Anyone else feel Alyn Smith is just a career politician, for all his talk about leading the fight in europe for Scotland just a few weeks ago, yet now seeking an MP seat?
That he’s also symptomatic of too many in the senior echelons of the SNP who regard electoral success as the number one goal of the SNP?
@ george wood -Indyref2 would be the confirmatory vote after Indyref1 promises failed to be delivered.
Fourth time of asking, but this time I won’t use the commenter’s name.
Have you banned someone whose name was an abbreviated form of ‘The Point Of No Return’?
Papko @ 23:26,
Duh. The Union is not “advancing”, it is crumbling. It is falling apart through the inherent contradiction of its many misconceptions.
I’ll repeat a wise saying about any hard confrontation, whether political or military:
It’s the side which persists that prevails. We have the right on our side, and we will prevail.
Capella
He is the world’s cleverest man. By combining trigonometry,
a peerless knowledge of emerging cognitive technologies, a profound grasp of the still unfolding ramifications of the Thirty Years War, consilience theory and a bit of Latin an’ that, he has awed BoJo, Gove and Raab into going along with whatever he says.
Spadocracy!
Bob Mack says:
6 September, 2019 at 11:32 pm
@Hamish 100,
No ,I can do much better. I think ,indeed hope your pathetically snide comment re homophobia earns you a red card from the Rev mate. People like you usually join groups like the Moon faction or Hari Krishna. You have unwavering loyalty to anything which accepts you in spite of your obvious limitations.
I keep an eye if you can do better but sign of it yet. As for snide comment how many times have you tried to get long term posters on here to leave. All because they disagree over WOS calling the FM a liar! You have a vivid imagination from gulags then onto moon faction or hari Krishna. Are you against their dress sense!, lol. Next you will be banning pillarboxes
Any limitations lie with you . Ps loyalty is a good thing as long as it is not blind. As for getting a red card are you the rev’s little helper whispering in his ear. A right wee acolyte are you.
The dog has whistled and the pack has heard it and gathered and are looking for something to feed on, and they don’t recognise the guy who started Brexit used the same tactics in England to make those people growl
george wood @ 23:46,
Jeez, George, the red herrings are flying tonight.
There.is.going.to.be.no.People’s.Vote.
That hope died long ago. There just isn’t the coherent political will for it. And when the last-hope Remainers finally realise this truth, they are (mostly) ours.
@Robert J Sutherland,
I agree with your analysis, but remain stuck at one pivotal issue. How are we going to obtain,force or agree to having an indy vote. Catalonia found out that people wishing self determination by the proper rules do not always end up with that option. In a modern European State as well.
This forum tonight displays the central issue rather well. We are all guessing because nobody actually knows if the SNP has a plan.
The Rev is abrasive sure,but in terms of political analysis he has few peers. He is stating quite categorically that the SNP do not seem to have a plan or road map to indy which he can see. Neither can I.
Tartanpigsy@7.18pm
Only 150 donors. Pretty pathetic response from Wings readers and independence supporters.
Britnats lie and they lie all the time about nearly everything and so does Nicola Sturgeon. Says the site owner. Aye right, your talking a lot of mince.
CORRECTION: Britnats lie and they lie all the time about nearly everything. Now that’s better.
I am not that gloomy currently. Johnson has screwed up big time by suspending parliament as if it’s not sitting it can’t vote for a GE. So he is left to stew with a majority of -43. Frequently now in the media you here senior politicians calling the Tories the English National Party. We need to encourage this frame of mind, the more Brexiteers who say no interest in the union the better. There is an easy way for the SNP to get section 30 pretty soon. Having killed No Deal there will have to be a Queens Speech after the prorogue. Agree to vote for it on condition of getting a section 30 before then. Whatever is in the Queens Speech becomes irrelevant if we have Indyref2.
And Holyrood already working on the legislation there end for holding it next year. May at the latest would be best. If Queens Speech idea does not come to fruition then GE will give mandate for Indyref2 regardless. Also penny might drop with Johnson if he looks at actual numbers that it’s the SNP who are continually defeating him and then I think he will be happy to wave bye bye.
So I am happy watching Westminster disintegration. Also Johnson is falling apart in front if our eyes as well, being exposed as a blustering, not too smart, windbag.
There’s a few people rocking the boat not just the Rev, including me at times. The thing is this, singing Kumbaya and holding hands while kissing an icon of “Nicola” is going to make the undecideds and soft and hard NOEs vomit and run away from the cult as fast they can. Whereas loud criticism is likely to strike a chord with them. And there must be some of the remain voters who wonder what the feck Sturgeon and the SNP are playing at?
Anyways, on a more interesting note, the London High Court threw out the Miller application on Friday having heard it on Thursday. Whereas the Inner House of the Court of Sessions, in full knowledge of what was happening in London as it was part of an argument by Johnston I think, did NOT make its judgement on Friday, nor did it say it would make it on Monday. It is giving itself until Wednesday, make of that what you will.
But you could ask: what is different about the case going through the Court of Sessions, from that that went to the High Court in London?
Ahhhhhhh the Rev saying the First Minister of Scotland is a liar is abrasive!
Some would say it is defamatory
Crowd founder anyone!
Again. ( ironic)
@ kapelmeister – what a boffin! 🙂
@ Ian Brotherhood – I hope The person you mentioned can and will still post. But if you want to message Stu it’s best to use the Contact tab in the header.
Ach, heid hurtin. The EU27 must now put the UK out of its misery. Unless the parachute amendment of revocation is pulled at the eleventh hour. Two chances of that – none and fuck all, the House isn’t brave enough to deny the plebs.
@Hamish 100,
You run along and tell her to sue then. Earn Brownie points, like a good guy.
@ kapelmeister
Intervention? Brownian motion surely!
@Capella –
If you (or I) suddenly vanished from this place, I would like know there was a clear indication of banishment, regardless of whatever the ‘reason’ may be.
It’s more to do with common courtesy than anything else.
Colin Alexander is happy. That tells you all you need to know about the contents of this thread.
What do you reckon the chances that at Balmoral, under siege BoJo did in a bottle of Drambuie all by himself and is now challenging Prince William to a fight, as Carrie looks on in tears?
Bob mack. – no doubt you advised the rev over dugdale. Not clever. The FM is a solicitor and doesn’t need my advice. Ive never been in the brownies so dont need the points. The pistbby the rev is ill advised.
Keep trying bob mack.
Post
Box?
I hope those who contributed hard earned to support wings don’t feel as if you have been duped into supporting a movement that is now working against independence?
What a shame it is ending this way for wings, a brilliant site laid low by stupidity and ego into believing it is bigger than the movement is claims to be supporting.
Ever feel like you are be8mg conned?
@Rev –
Seriously, no matter how pissed off you may be about whatever, is the abbreviated name of ‘The Point Of No Return’ now a ‘banned word’?
Four, maybe five times I’ve posted comments which referred to that handle, none have appeared, but none went into moderation.
What the actual fuck is going on Stu?
@hamish 100,
I thought you were leaving? Your harder to shift than a mollusc on a rock.
@Hail Alba,
Yes. By the SNP.
Bob Mack @ 00:03,
Yes, this is the Big Question, no doubt about it. I myself at times have had my worries about that (and usually have had little thanks on here for expressing them!).
But we have to distinguish between what has emanated from various factions within the SNP “broad church” and by what we can best judge is the intent of their leader. And we also have to duly recognise the unique challenge of a truly historical English Establishment meltdown; befuddlement and confusion that has made planning a way forward uniquely difficult. The possible interventions that could be put in our way, as indeed happened in 2017, for example.
Well, one such is effectively a dead duck and the other is almost certainly on the way, so things are becoming somewhat clearer. And I disagree fundamentally with Stu on one point: I believe that Nicola is a decent and honourable person and politician, and hold as an article of faith that she does fully intend to honour what she promised in her Bute House declaration in the Spring of 2017, despite the insufferable “cautionism” of some.
In fact, when the time comes, I believe she will (pleasantly) surprise us all.
Out and about in Edinburgh today and hearing many young adults openly supporting Indy.
Never heard that before. The SNP are being spoken of as the only rational party to support. Boris and his bogus gift to farmers and fishers was the object of much mirth.
Independence cannot come soon enough.
The better together pro EU people are turning, the SNP are ignoring their core voters, because those voters have no choice, hence the SNPs objection to another party supposedly ‘gaming’ the system (it is what it is, there can’t be any ‘gaming’ because that’s how the game is played).
There are arguments for and against EU membership, but there are no arguments for the union, only arguments for independence. Any pro independence supporters that think EU membership is more important than independence has been infected with fundamentalist non-think.
Public opinion IS turning, due to the SNP action in preventing Brexit, but that action is not for attracting any of the likes of us. Sidelined and marginalised, and told to have kind thoughts towards the poor deluded better together folk as their world crumbles around them. The poor dears. No deal in any situation would be disastrous for Scotland so needs to be stopped. Alyn Smith as an MP would be a clever move, he is a good speaker, has experience, is a bit of a posh boy, and mainly you have installed someone seriously pro EU with lots of EU knowledge into the Westminster debate that mostly involves talking about the EU. Even more handy in a coalition government situation when having a handy brexit minister might be a selling point. Howls of outrage from brexiteers.
the fact is though, in the next election, whichever that might be, if the SNP fail to campaign on independence then I will be failing to mark my voting paper correctly. It is the only real voice I have, and the withdrawal of any support. If they do campaign for independence,I will be absolutely full-on putting in the time and sympathy to ease the poor dear better together mob life crises, and I could make the effort to find the correct box on the voting slip too. Will just have to wait and see, I’ll try and remember to give the SNP warning of intent.
The withdrawal agreement was added to the no-deal avoidance ask for an extension bill so the bill made sense. The EU are not going to agree to any extensions without something to show progress, putting the WA through parliament again might be that something.
The legal proceedings on prorogation are including interesting constitutional questions, and a ruling will give some idea how well any proceeding may go if a Scottish constitutional question was put to the test.
Well done on spotting that politicians lie, Stu, but whining about it does not seem very productive on the face of it, maybe it helped release some frustrations though. Probably best not go into politics though, it really isn’t going to work. Shame, I’d hoped for a pro-women-are-people-too Independence Party for an alternative voting choice. Oh well, thought it would be too big a step change anyway.
Final word for tonight.
Stu, I would not blame you for packing up and moving on. You have tirelessly taken abuse for all you have done for the Indy movement. It must be hell on earth.
The SNP refuse to acknowledge your contribution openly and treat you as a pariah. Their more ardent followers follow suit if you dare point out any fault with the party many others support primarily and solely for independence.
There is nothing else to compare with your insightful analysis, which seems to again annoy many who are reluctant to face the truth because it hurts.hurts . pPerhaps it’s time to have a break Stu, and show the Indy movement how far they get without your contribution.
I would miss you greatly for one.
It’s a Town full of Losers and we’re pulling out of here to WIN
Ach, fuck it…
What a funereal tone there is now, in here.
We’re all so dog fuckin tired of it all, no wonder.
More power to Rev for keeping going, but it just feels hopeless right now.
Looks like AC has been bagged. Loads of regulars have drifted away recently. Ronnie A, Robert Peffers, Smallaxe, Morag, Kininvie, fuck’s sake, can’t even start compiling a ‘list’, there’s so many.
Time for some of you ‘lurkers’ to step up to the plate!
😉
“Have you banned someone whose name was an abbreviated form of ‘The Point Of No Return’?”
Yes I have. If I give someone a fair warning and their response is “fuck off”, they made their choice.
@Rev –
Our comments overlapped there.
Synchronicity or what?
🙂
I had thought for a long time I needed to understand the game, see the pitfalls, push the party in the right direction – keep them honest and true.
Well I cannot do any of those things. The game is too huge, the pitfalls too many, and who knows what the party is up to. They are not for keeping likes of me in the loop.
All I can do is stand up for what I know to be correct.
And I stand, and I stand, and I stand…me and a few others. I’m done running after WM’s permission… the party line… brexit this, that, mibee – definitely shite, Indy2 mibee’s maybe, one day, after another mandate.
Just another Mandate Monday SNP heyhey.
’cause you know 3 mandates is not enough, but 4… that’ll work miracles. That plus a petition.
Mibees Nicola Sturgeon is doing brilliant. But for her to have left such a big part of the YES movement ‘twiddling their thumbs’ when all they were asking for was confirmation she had a plan and the nod and the wink as to what ground she wanted us to cover, is incredibly poor.
And given our country’s history with the Labour party, to keep saying ‘trust us, we’re keeping our powder dry’ when the danger is they’re ‘pulling their punches’ and we have no way of knowing without confirmatory action is incredibly poor leadership.
The optics on Alyn Smith going for the MP’s job in Stirling are just appalling. I would have expected him to have built up such a network over the years, that the SNP funded him to remain in Brussels to lobby for Scotland. He looks no better than a Scottish version of Luke Graham doing what he’s doing. Rent a Gob – will travel.
@ IanB 1:51am
Probably not the lurker you need stepping up to the plate right now for insightful or meaningful contributions 😉 but, thought I’d pop on to say – keep smiling and keep the chin up. 🙂
@ Ian B
Hi Ian, I posted a response to you on Off Topic
@ Ian Brotherhood
Re
‘We’re all so dog fuckin tired of it all, no wonder.
More power to Rev for keeping going, but it just feels hopeless right now.’
We’ve been trying to level the playing field when we should have been scoring goals.
We’ve been running after the media, westminster, in some respects even the SNP, trying to justify why Independence is right/normal/economically feasible.
We’ve been trying to out play and out game a Rigged Game.
Lets just stop running.
Lets just stand.
I’m not trying to be obscure or ‘out there’. But there is a gravity to Independence – its a normal state of affairs, a natural place to be. Why are we doing all the running?
Since we have no road map at the moment. Lets just stand, stand up for an Independent Scotland. And stand, and stand and keep standing. Time now for Unionists to do the running.
Hope this makes some kind of sense. At least its simple.
Many fine voices here challenging parts of Stuart’s analysis.
Thepnr @ 3.37 pm 6th Sept, followed by Chick MacGregor @ 3.39 pm are worth reading.
Well said 🙂
@ Stu
Free the Dundee 1 😉 🙂
Ian Brotherhood @ 01:51,
I’m not quitting, because I am convinced we’re winning.
WM is a right old mess, with little sign of progress, but why should we worry that our opponents are in such dire straits? The answer doesn’t lie there, it lies here at home, with all of us, where it always has done.
@ Bob Mac 1.15am well said and seconded , Ian B , RJS , Daisy Walker and other independence supporters , I ain’t going anywhere either .
Let’s be honest this guy has done more than anyone to expose the lies and corruption we Scots have suffered for decades , he has been ridiculed , threatened , denigrated and faced possible legal ramifications for exposing the lies and corruption of the unionist parties and their lackeys the MSM and broadcasters , yet because he gives what he and others consider an honest interpretation of the direction of travel of the only party able to gain our independence the SNP , he is then accused of all sorts of nefarious activities against the SNP and Nicola ,
How many of us would have faced the shit this guy has faced on OUR behalf and not said Fuck it and just gave up
Independence is bigger and MORE IMPORTANT than any of us , the SNP is our vehicle and we must trust in that vehicle and IMO what the Rev is doing is letting the SNP and Nicola know that patience can only go so far
Fracturing now is only a gift to the unionists , put the petty squabbling behind us and move on
Comparing the results a Party gets in a GE election and the % result of a Referendum is just inconceivable.
The same 5+ Party GE election system and the constitute conditions of a referendum two questions is totally incompatible.
A Party polling 42% GE is totally winning, It has nothing to do with comparing in a Referendum result. Two totally different situations. Not compatible or comparable.
Different electorate, different manifesto, different argument. Different, different, different.
If some people consider a GE polling result is comparable to indicate a Ref result. They should do some investigation of GE electoral conditions and Referendum results. Much more complicated,
42% GE result. Could equate to 60% Referendum result or visa versus. Totally different question and conditions. Not comparable or comparable. Different electoral conditions. 5+ Party conditions. Two question Ref. Like comparing apples and pears. Without comparing the different regulations. Different electorate composition etc.
Some folk are defeating their own argument with misinformation and no consideration. ie a Party GE result does not equate to the same % Ref result. Different circumstances and conditions. Not being considered makes it meaningless.
Tory polling 27% GE electoral results. Does not equate to 52% Ref result. It equates to 27% Tory result and 52% Ref result. Totally different.
SNP polling 42% GE result. Does not equate to 42% Ref result. More likely to be 55%+ Ref result. All things considered. Two totally different electoral systems. GE and Ref conditions. Different electoral conditions, different number of electorate, different manifestos, different question, different argument. different turnout, different composition. Etc, etc. Not so simplistic as a direct comparison.
The ‘hating’ bit could but could be left out. Emotional not factual. People are entitled to their own choice in any circumstances. Impossible and idiotic as they can seem to others.
Only commented a few times in the years I’ve been lurking, so hope I’ll do Ian B.
This thread has been both depressing and uplifting. Get low at seeing all the animosity between independence supporters, but then remember, fuck it we’re Scots! It’s what we do, a good old fashioned rammy ? then all pals. We can’t agree all the time.
I think it’s obvious that most folk are getting frustrated and just want to escape the shite that’s happening.
My hope is that we can all come together.
My partner is Gambian and what was so important in his people’s fight against a dictator was all the opposition got together to get rid of Jammeh, puting their differences aside short term.
If they could do that against a man that had previously killed his opponents, then I know we can and will succeed.
The day after we will happily go back to having an argument in an empty room
From The National:
“In the Court of Session, Lord Carloway, Lord Brodie and Lord Drummond Young were told by David Johnston QC for the UK Government that if Hilary Benn MPs’ Bill to prevent a No-Deal Brexit is passed on Monday by the House of Commons, then the Privy Council order to prorogue would no longer apply”
which is very interesting, as Johnston has argued the correct place for the prorogation to be challenged is Parliament as it’s political. But if that fails in Parliament, then Parliament failed, so where would a challenge be possible? Only in Court it seems to me, making that perhaps another reason for waiting till Wednesday for the judgement by which time the UK Parliament is prorogued – or not.
Theresa May’s withdrawal agreement may indeed come to pass.
It would certainly settle down things a little whilst ensuring that the catastrophic effects of a no deal exit are avoided – and a relief to not just a flagging UK economy but a slowing EU economy too.
That an exit of sorts had been achieved it would I suspect settle the softer leave voters and in time also come to be accepted by many of the 62% of Scots who voted Remain. That then would weaken the SNPs electoral advantage.
Put simply, trying to stop Brexit by participating in a plan to minimise disruption by keeping the UK half in and half out may not be to the SNP and the independence movements advantage.
Maybe it is just my view but with an independence majority in Hollyrood and an a majority of Scotland MPs being SNP isn’t it time to call those MPs back and operate as an independent nation.
Westminster isn’t functioning, Hollyrood is – and I wonder what the EU would make of that especially since the SG is still sending civil servants to participate in the EU whilst the English Government is not.
And on Friday, belligerent PM Johnson wrote to Tory MPs to say that they ( the House of Commons majority ) just passed a law to make him beg Brussels for an extension, something that he’d never do.
So what is the dangerous clown saying. Will he resign making him the shortest PM ever or will he defy parliament and just instruct a leave – which of course he couldn’t enforce, or could he.
Methinks Boris the Clown and his right wing cabal are going forward to an even more chaotic mess. Without parliament behind him he can maybe try to give orders to the civil service, police, army, border agency et al, but legally does the apparatus of state have to take direction when Parliament has said no.
Or what of the EU. Would they take any notice of the tea boy in office but with no authority.
Talk about a non functioning compromised Westminster Government, The UK rule of law is now in tatters. Time to return our MPs and get on with running our own affairs.
i would like to summarise what I think is happening.
1. The UK political system has, so far, been unable to arrive at a solution and way forward in respect of its relationship with the UK and EU. This is an issue that has been rumbling for years, and has largely been swept under the carpet without being properly addressed. It is an extremely difficult issue because it involves a mix of rational considerations around collaboration, trade, etc, and also emotional factors regarding national identity, racism, etc.
2. Right now, we are at a point of maximum (so far) uncertainty and chaos. No-one knows what might happen. This includes Rev Stu and all of us contributing to the discussion. Not knowing what will happen is not evidence of stupidity or bias – it is inevitable at a time of chaos and system change.
3. The SNP has consistently argued for staying in the EU and another independence referendum, while at the same time (as the Scottish Government) doing its best to mitigate the impact if neither of these preferred scenarios is achieved. There are genuine disagreements among those of us who support these aims, around how deftly or effectively the SNP has handled these challenges.
4. The FM has stated that she will request an Indyref2 soon.
5. The Westminster government will turn down that request.
6. The Scottish Government will pursue the matter in the UK courts and the court of world opinion.
7. There will be a massive and sustained show of peaceful and creative civil disobedience across Scotland, mainly instigated by groups other than the SNP.
8. The UK government will concede.
9. There will be a referendum and Scotland will become an independent country.
In other words, there are two hugely important political processes unfolding at the same time: UK-EU relationship and Scottish independence. Although they are interconnected in many ways, they are fundamentally separate. The work to achieve Scottish Independence would have continued over the last three years even if the EU referendum had never happened, or had come out for remain.
Stuart, I am reluctant to draw parallels between you and the Prime Minister, but your attitude and that of Johnson over the last few days bear comparison.
Prominent contributors to WoS along with a well-respected indy blogger disagree with Stuart – Stuart blocks them or takes down links. Long term posters on Wings find they cannot stomach the direction the blog is heading in.
Prominent members of the Tory party disagree with Boris- Boris trashes them and expels them from the party. Tory MPs and MSPs find they cannot stomach the direction the party is heading in.
Come on Stuart – you’re better than this.
Sunny intervals and a gentle breeze in Bath today. Maybe you should take one of your long walks.
Weegingerdug has a good take on things
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2019/09/06/startled-fawns/
Bob mack
Have i left yet?
Stop lying. I never said I was. You are trying to force folk out who disagree with WoS saying the FM is lying. Rev’s words not mine. Still you feel aggrieved enough to try and post in the early hours. I was fast asleep. Weird that you brought the name of Rock into the debate. If you care to check I and others challenged the guy out at evry turn.
Are you rock?
I think revs intemperate words hs scuppered his party.
Good grief!
I read the Rev’s article as a wonderful breakdown of current political events with the message being a reminder that all politicians will let you know sooner or later.
Others have homed straight in on a couple of sentences and had a big strop, like a kid who’s just been told Santa isn’t real. Honestly, I swear there are elements within the Scottish nationalist movement who are less open to dissent than radical islam.
A reminder for posters who can only see black or white. If Scotland is to achieve independence it will need the support of people who currently have enough doubts about it to vote against it.
Anyone think our ‘controversial ‘blogger is trying to give a collective boot up the bahoochie of complacency?
@Dorothy.
Yes .Exactly that.
This is Stu,s blog. As such he is allowed to think what he will, and write what he thinks is his truth.
We do not contribute to Wings because he is a sycophant of any party. We contribute for his (often correct) political analysis.
The very minute he denies what he believes, or cedes to the narrow pera meters some would set for him, then he becomes useless.
Stu has to hold ALL politicians to account or none.
THERE ARE NO EXCEPTIONS.
Dorothy Devine @ 8.36pm
We do need a collective boot up the bahoochie as you say. Scotland is allowing events to control itself. I am totally weary with the SNP. Article 50 is never going to be revoked – it would be political suicide for both Tory and Labour. So Brexit will happen in one form or another – WA or no deal hard Brexit. Both are bad for Scotland. So I ask myself why is the SNP not doing all it can to strike ahead with independence?
I have resigned myself to the fact that the SNP will yet again seek a mandate at the coming GE (when that happens) and then again at the 2021 HR elections. And who knows probably at the 2025 HR elections too…and so we continue to go round in circles collecting mandates!!!!
I’m beginning to think that Nicola is not so nimble in her strategising – she seems stuck like concrete to obtaining a S30. Elections are recognised globally as the political will of the people. So there should be no reason that a win on an independence ticket would not be recognised internationally as the people of Scotland choosing their path to retake their independence. But it seems our leadership don’t feel an election is ‘gold standard’ enough!!!
Scotland seems to be its own worst enemy tying itself in knots all the while WM is playing cat and mouse with us.
Cubby
There has been no political leadership on independence from the SNP since 2014. No political leadership from the SNP about the sovereignty of the people of Scotland.
The SNP have focused on stopping England and Wales from having the Brexit they voted for.
It’s not for politicians to overrule that decision cos they don’t like it. They should have respected it.
The SNP should have respected the English Leave vote and the Scottish Remain vote. Instead they compromised Scotland’s vote to Remain by offering a compromise position and have also sought to undermine the Leave vote. If England wants to Leave with a deal or No deal, that is England’s decision.
If the UK Govt won’t respect Scotland’s Remain vote, the mandate was to give the people of Scotland a choice to dissolve the UK Union.
Instead the SNP have wasted three years playing “British” politics. So, no wonder Stu and others are getting cheesed off with the SNP and FM. Criticism of the SNP’s strategy has resulted in blatant SNP attacks on bloggers and others within the YES movement accusing them of undermining the fight for independence.
So, I can understand if Stu and others are getting pissed off with a posturing SNP who spend more time undermining bloggers and indy supporters than they do fighting for Scottish independence.
I’m not happy about that. But, it’s good to know I’m not the only one who is not happy with the SNP regarding their lack of fight for independence and surrender of Scottish sovereign power.
You really should be on telly more. Politics Live would be far more interesting with you squaring up to the likes of Toby Young. You seem to have had a decent track record in the predictions department especially compared to McTernan – and he’s still frequently popping up on TV.
Surely it’s time revocation was moving up the inside rail. With a promise to hold a 2nd vote with Remain and Leave (split into 2 papers with No Deal v the WA if Leave won again).
The other thing that’s unbelievably absent from view is the lack of talk on the whole electoral system. If ever there was a time for restructuring it’s now. Getting rid of the 2 party system with FPTP and the HoL seems a no brainier.
As for the SNP. You can see the appeal of 50+ seats again but there’s no way they could just sit on that like 2015-17. NS will be in great difficulty if no indyref occurs next year after Wm keep refusing the s 30. There has to be a plan B. On saying that, even as an unhappy party member if no plan B materialises, I don’t see my constituency vote going anywhere else whilst stuck in the UK. Maybe that’s what she’s counting on to maintain what would be an increasingly excruciating gradualist position
@Scozzie,
The only possible reason I can think of is that Ruth Davidson and others have repeatedly stated in the past that in their view ” a political generation” was a 7 year period. That would mean a referendum in 2021 would be hard to deny, as they are all caught on camera saying that very thing.
The quality Napoleon most valued in his generals was luck.
Nicola Sturgeon has it in abundance. As you all know, I absolutely agree with Stu that Independence has not been at the front of Nicola’s agenda, when it should have been. She has been far too interested in the Guardian’s agenda of keeping Westminster in the EU, and identity politics. And the SNP has been more interested in office than in Independence.
But I also believe that the UK is tearing itself apart so fiercely, Independence is more or less going to drop into Nicola’s lap anyway.
I agree with you that “The optics on Alyn Smith going for the MP’s job in Stirling are just appalling.” @Daisy Walker says at 2:04 am
But here are two thoughts on it:
1. Alyn has a good chance of beating Kerr so one less Tory MP from Scotland returned to Westminster
2. I would personally rather see Alyn elected to Westminster than Holyrood due to his support of the “WokeNat”, Anti-Science Trans Lobby (less chance of him managing to enact dangerous legislation which would affect Scots women)
If a hard Brexit is going to be such a catastrophe and be a recruiting sergeant for Indy then the SNP should be doing everything it can to bring it on – even if they have to do a wee bit of white lying to the contrary – the end justifies the means/Realpolitik and all that.
However I suspect the disaster scenario is a damp squib and a temporary shortage of Brie at Asda is unlikely to send the masses into a frenzy.
@Bob Mack:
“Stu has to hold ALL politicians to account or none.
THERE ARE NO EXCEPTIONS.”
I’m a bit neutral about this article itself, but that is a very good point Bob, and one I think myself too. We can’t have a double standard; if “our” politicians do bad, then it’s just as bad as if it’s “their” politicians do it.
But all too often there’s an instinctive jump to defend what is, at times, the indefensible.
Independence isn’t about politicians or a political party, that’s just part of the vehicle of delivery. Independence is about all of us, including those we want to persuade to vote YES – and those who don’t vote YES but are still the People of Scotland.
All of us.
Craig Murray @ 10.09am
I’m curious to know your thoughts, when it falls into her lap will she grab it or delay and stall to the 2021 HR elections?
J Galt
Mr Carney just downgraded his ‘growth’ forecast re Brexit from depression, to mere full blown recession territory.
But what does he know.
I repeat Colin Alexander is happy with this thread. That’s all you need to know about the value of this thread to gaining Scottish independence.
All the best to everyone attending the AUOB march in Perth today. I doubt I’ll see any Colin Alexander for FM banners or SNP baaad banners.
Things have got very febrile below the line. We don’t want to end up like Labour or the Tories falling on each others necks do we? That road leads to disaster as we can plainly see.
This has never been an SNP site despite what loyal Tory journalists would have people believe. If Stu thinks the SNP have taken a wrong turn on the rails towards stopping Brexit at the expense of Independence then he won’t be the only person with that worry. One thing, no one will be able to make the SNP sock puppet site claim this time round.
The next few weeks will be pivotal. I do detect movement within the SNP to an Indy battle footing. If that happens then I trust we can all calm down to a convulsion and get on with what will likely be a much shorter much more intense campaign. Wings will play a part in that battle and we need to stop poking each other with sharp sticks.
Bob mac 0909 well said agree, It has to be said that Stu is not the only pro indy blogger that has issues with the SNP’s strategy, we will find out soon enough who is right, wonder how long it will before those who left in the huff will come back. Shame about Alex being banned but he should have known telling the Rev to Fuck Off was not a good idea. If your now a lurker Alex hope you still come along to the gatherings.
I think I understand the Revs frustration as we nearly all do but he must remember that NS as well as leader of the SNP(raison d’etre indy) but also FM of the nation,and as such has a moral responsibility to the whole of the Scottish people.
In my heart of heart the rev calling out NS as a liar doesn’t sit well with me…..not at all well.
Fergus Green @ 7.22 am (and others too – you know who you are 🙂 ) Well said and brave =)
Mr Campbell does write some good articles but he does not always get it right.
Suggesting NS lies sits very ill with me. On this Stuart Campbell is, I believe, wrong. I have never seen evidence for that assertion and nor do I believe it is even in that person’s nature to lie.
I think the SNP are doing exactly the right thing where fighting Brexit is concerned and have approached the issue from the very start with Scotland’s best interests at heart as well as in the best interest of the European Union and for all the people of Europe who are here to live, study or visit. This is a position of integrity.
I do not agree that the stance against leaving the EU has diverted attention from fighting for Scotland’s Independence. It is part and parcel of the same battle.
And this struggle highlights on a very public stage how badly Scotland’s interests are treated. This incredible work put in by the SNP has gone a long way towards shifting opinions.
For now we are in a treaty of union and fighting being dragged out of the EU against the will of the people of Scotland IS respecting the will of the people of Scotland.
Saving the rest of the UK from a disastrous Brexit (a Brexit sold on a platform of lies) is also in an Independent Scotland’s best interests in both the short and the long term.
What IS of interest however is WHO applauds Stuart’s article. A revealing flushing out.
I, for one, am looking forward to our Independence Referendum in 2020 🙂
Ghillie@11.46am
Well said.
But it really is ridiculous that you have to spell this out on a Scottish independence site.
OT
Fine day for the March in Perth.
Apols to Rev and the readers for my overly sweary outburst last night, had been a long day an ah was blowing aff steam, muchos ventos
Note to self… put the phone down dude
53 days to go
“I, for one, am looking forward to our Independence Referendum in 2020”
Get ready for disappointment.
One last question to everyone who’s saying “Ah, but the SNP don’t actually WANT to stop Brexit – because that would screw the indyref mandate – they just want to LOOK like they’re trying to so that it’ll win over soft No voters”.
So what you’re saying is that they’re lying?
Weak thinking Rev – the ‘all politicians are useless liars’ is the sort of comment you get from non-political people after 4 pints on a Saturday night.
It is quite evident that this is not true. The sentiment says more about your frustration with UK politics than it does about the SNP or NS
If the Wings list party is to take off, then it is not a good idea to be calling Nicola a liar – especially when she is obviously playing the hand she has, devoid of any trump cards, as best as one could hope for.
Craig Murray @10.09
I don’t really see how NS could be doing more. It looks to me like she is covering all the bases needed to ensure the escape route is sound. If the SNP are not in office, there will be no independence.
If Boris defies WM’s law over no hard Brexit – then how much more reasonable will it be for Scotland to do the same over holding a second referendum?
let’s hear it for Boris . . . .
“So what you’re saying is that they’re lying?”
Yes, but…
One may call it lying, another might say playing the game with the hand you’ve been given.
The state of play in this brave new political World, is that you can get away with shameless, barely concealed lies. Time & time again.
“Prominent contributors to WoS along with a well-respected indy blogger disagree with Stuart – Stuart blocks them or takes down links.”
That hasn’t happened. This thread is chock-full of people disagreeing with me who haven’t been banned. The only person who’s been banned is someone I patiently debated with, going to quite a lot of effort to provide facts and figures, then warned about a particular comment that was provocative personal trolling, for which I got told to “Fuck off”.
I won’t be told to fuck off on my own website, thanks very much. I put up with enough of that elsewhere.
Scot Goes Pop wasn’t delinked for disagreeing with me either. He’s been doing that in ever more strident and offensive terms for at least two weeks now and he didn’t get delinked – I just muted him on Twitter eventually because it got boring.
He was delinked when he went crying to Twitter like a baby and got Gavin Barrie suspended because Gavin said a rude word to him when James was being disingenuous and disrespectful to Gavin. Gavin’s a good guy and didn’t deserve that. (James has now tried to get the same done to me.)
And while that was the reason I delinked SGP, I can’t believe anyone’s really surprised that I wasn’t unduly bothered about no longer linking to a site full of increasingly deranged and untrue allegations about me.
Scotland currency will be the Euro.
The Euro may eventually be Scotland’s currency but it won’t happen overnight. There are joining rules and it is up to the individual country to make the call when the time is right. All joining members have to do is agree in principle to join the Euro at a future date. We will do that.
Yes it makes sense. Once the union breaks up. Let England become a satellite of the US and we join The Euro and of course a United Ireland which of course will also be in the EU. Its the only way really
“The state of play in this brave new political World, is that you can get away with shameless, barely concealed lies. Time & time again.”
And that makes it okay for our side to do it too? Fuck that.
“If the Wings list party is to take off, then it is not a good idea to be calling Nicola a liar – especially when she is obviously playing the hand she has, devoid of any trump cards, as best as one could hope for.”
I’ll call her a liar when she’s lying, same as everyone else. Anything else is a very dangerous road.
If the SNP aren’t trying to stop Brexit then they are doing a dam good job of convincing no voters that they are. I personally think they are genuinely trying to stop Brexit.
It’s getting bizarre now that Britnats are always saying Sturgeon is banging on about independence all the time but independence supporters are saying she isn’t doing anything about independence.
Rev. Stuart Campbell@2.12pm
I agree with this comment.
However, I don’t agree with your comment that Sturgeon is lying. I don’t think you made much of a case but you are obviously entitled to your view as it is your site.
On t’other hand, shameless barely concealed lies can serve a higher purpose with great distinction so, with that in mind, may I be first to suggest that in the event of an GE, the Wings party gets itself off to a proper McVillain start by colluding with Stephen Kerr to provide a candidate in Stirling constituency..
following which the party’s reputation for dirty tricks on a par with old labour can be further enhanced by double crossing Kerr to collude with SNP to make the Wings candidate Alex Salmond.
“However, I don’t agree with your comment that Sturgeon is lying. I don’t think you made much of a case but you are obviously entitled to your view as it is your site.”
Okay then – explain to me what you think the SNP’s actual policy is.
– If it’s “trying to stop Brexit altogether” then she’s definitely lying about having an indyref before 2021. If there’s no Brexit then we don’t even have a mandate for a new indyref, let alone the actual legislative power, and we’ll need to get one in 2021.
– If it’s “trying to stop no-deal Brexit only” then she’s definitely lying when she poses with giant signs saying “STOP BREXIT”. (Also, if that was the goal then the SNP would have voted for a deal.)
– If it’s “just pretending to try to stop Brexit, so that when it happens she can tell No voters that she did her best in good faith for the whole UK but now they have to vote for indy”, then she’s obviously lying when she says she’s trying to stop Brexit.
So which is it? Because those are all lying.
Stuart @ 2.12 pm, Thepnr is passionate about Independence for Scotland and believes the SNP are genuinely working towards that. As do I.
Thepnr challenged you with the information he has and with his belief that the SNP and our First Minister WILL achieve Independence for Scotland.
Thepnr asked you for evidence to support your statement that Nicola Sturgeon is lying – you of all people should know that that is a serious assertion to make. And an emotive one too – certainly for me.
Thepnr, while responding to republicofscotland @ 8.59 pm, 6th Sept, finished with ‘ mind you, it could always be found to be fair comment because you believed that what you said was right even though it wasn’t.’
I think that is what you were referring to as trolling.
I get that is a sensitive area for you – but in this context it was, I think, an astute observation. Not trolling.
But take a moment to look at what you said in the above article (and on twitter) that is derogatory towards the SNP, a party many true Wingers (not your run of the mill trolls and siuers and Smalls) trust and have supported, and in fact also have met and even know personally, and using just a little empathy, understand how your statements, also coming from someone we thought we could trust, would impact.
You attacked most specifically, Nicola Sturgeon, a woman many Wingers hold in high regard, with very good reason.
And you did not think that could result in strong response?
And yet, Thepnr accepted your assertions as YOUR opinion.
And maybe that it could be seen as ‘fair comment’.
Which it would appear was too close to the bone for you yesterday. What a pity. You lost a good man.
These are days of high emotion for us all. I hope you will reconsider your action against Thepnr.
As for looking forward to our Independence Referendum in 2020 – I sincerely hope it is YOU that is in for a lovely surprise and that you will be truly happy to be proved wrong 🙂
“And maybe that it could be seen as ‘fair comment’.”
I didn’t ban him or call him a cunt. All I did was warn him to be careful with deliberately provocative trolling. I was told to fuck off. Once more, I won’t be told to fuck off on my own website. My house, my rules. If he wants unbanned he knows what’s required.
Stuart @ 3.21 pm.
The SNP would not vote for May’s withdrawal agreement because it was very bad for Scotland. May’s red lines, for starters, were unacceptable.
The SNP are trying to stop No Deal Brexit at the very least as it would be so incredibly damaging for Scotland, the whole of the UK and even the EU. Perhaps even the World.
Any sane person would like to stop Brexit all together as it is such a BAD idea all round. The SNP certainly want to stop Brexit for Scotland. Because THAT is what Scotland voted for. If that means dragging England along for now how is that any worse than Scotland being dragged out against OUR will? This being a union of equals and all.
Independence for Scotland IS at the core of the being of the SNP.
But this is a party with integrity. And it looks like it will fight against Brexit, tooth and nail, because it is bad for Scotland.
Support for Independence IS growing but I don’t think we are quite ready yet. No voters are beginning to see what Yes voters have known long since.
I don’t think fighting Brexit will loose us the Indy vote but rather increase it.
The clusterbourach that is Brexit is like a mad charicature of everything that is wrong with the Union and this is something that seems to finally be getting through to the folk that we need to switch to YES.
All of this is taking us closer to our Indyref with a growing majority in favour of Independence.
If Brexit is completely laid aside (which I think is highly unlikely) THEN the next GE can be fought on a mandate for Indyref2 on Scotland’s terms.
We will have tried everything. The Scottish electorate will have had a real taste of the brink of disaster and not want to go there again. Brexit Britain will be champing at the bit to fulfill their xenophobic dreams and that will be a perpetual threat to concentrate the minds of waverers.
To get this right, there are no short cuts.
And I do firmly believe that Scotland WILL be voting for Independence in 2020 🙂
@Cubby both side of 3pm
Agree that Stu has failed to make the case that NS is lying – She is doing a magnificent job in riding the Indy horse while steering the Brexit horse at the same time. No easy task
“It’s getting bizarre now that Britnats are always saying Sturgeon is banging on about independence all the time but independence supporters are saying she isn’t doing anything about independence” TOO TRUE
Stus said ” If it’s “just pretending to try to stop Brexit, so that when it happens she can tell No voters that she did her best in good faith for the whole UK but now they have to vote for indy”
STU what makes you think she is pretending? If she does her best to mitigate the damage of Brexit to Scotland but the little Englanders still leave and drag Scotland out- Nichola can tell REMAIN voters the truth – she did her best to limit the damage and sway the few more percent needed for the Indy cause towards 50%.
The middle of the road frightened voter is going to support the most reasonable consistently sensible person – it it not the committed yessers that will sway Indy2 but the fence sitters.
You are sounding like one of those fundy lefty nutters you are always complaining about Stu – catch yourself on
Rev. Stuart Campbell @ 15:21
Well, strictly that’s not true. The mandate uses exit from the EU as but one example. A particularly salient one of course, and the only one mentioned explicitly, but it does not exclude others. In point of fact, I would say that the treatment that the Scottish nation has received so far over the Brexit farrago is more than ample justification already.
My argument with the SG/SNP is that they seem rather too tardy about bringing on the constitutionally, politically and strategically necessary IR2, but I don’t doubt for a minute that it will happen before 2021, be it in their power to do so. (Which is of course by far the most frustrating element in this whole business. Is it?) From the above though I don’t see that having an early IR2 as being in the least contradictory with attempting to stop Brexit.
What Nicola is attempting is not “lying”, not in anything like the same league anyway as “Lyin’ Bastert Johnston”, as WGD puts it. What she is attempting in the midst of all this London chaos is to protect Scotland’s flank over trade etc. by having a stable English agreement with the EU, while simultaneously testing the current UK system to destruction.
She may be accused, if you so wish, of being disingenuous about keeping England totally within the EU, since it is extremely unlikely that this will happen, but it’s a lesson that the fainthearted Remainers in Scotland really need to learn: they can’t cherry-pick their future either.
Rev. Stuart Campbell@3.21pm
I appreciate you putting forward your case. I will put forward my case as follows:
Benchmark – an example of a clear lie – Johnson says in the Hof Commons in reply to Blackford that Scotland is the highest taxed country in Europe.
Scenario 1 in your post.
I believe that the SNP are genuinely trying to stop Brexit. The Scotgov have worked hard to make Scotland a better place to live. They do not want it trashed by Brexit of any form. Your assumption you take from this that she is lying about Indyref2 next year is just that – an assumption. Not a clear lie. Indyref2 can proceed next year no matter what happens re Brexit. What happens re Brexit will of course impact on the vote. You can make a case that in your opinion it is not the best way to obtain independence.
So in summary I cannot agree that this scenario provides a case that Sturgeon is lying.
Scenario 2
I am not aware that the SNP policy is just to stop a no deal Brexit. So again I do not see a case for saying Sturgeon is lying.
Scenario 3
As I have said in other posts and in scenario 1 above I do not believe the SNP or Sturgeon are just kidding on that they want to stop Brexit. So again I see no case for saying Sturgeon is lying.
You may well be proved to be right that there will be no independence referendum (or alternative route to independence) and of course there will be many disappointed independence supporters. But that is not the same as making a case at this point in time that Sturgeon is lying. Your forecasts in the past have proven to be unerringly correct but in this instance I hope you are wrong.
cadogan Enright@4.21pm
Good post.
“…. it is not the committed yessers that will sway Indyref2 but the fence sitters.”
This has been stated before but it does not diminish its importance nor its need to be repeated for some people.
I usually agree with Stuart’s political analysis but I don’t agree with his sentiments re Nicola, Brexit and Indyref2. The immediate danger to Scotland’s interest is Brexit. Indyref2 will happen one way or another before the next Holyrood elections. If there is a cliff edge Brexit, Indyref2 will happen sooner rather than later. I’m with Nicola.
“If it’s “trying to stop Brexit altogether” then she’s definitely lying about having an indyref before 2021.”
Nope. Both are possible. Stop Brexit AND have Indy Ref 2 before 2021. Somewhere over the last few months she’s said exactly that. I can’t be assed finding what she said, but the DT I found did report it reasonably accurately:
“Nicola Sturgeon has been accused of planning a second independence referendum “come hell or high water” after she indicated she could still push for a new vote if Brexit is cancelled, or if Boris Johnson becomes prime minister.
The First Minister claimed that “many people” would agree that Westminster’s treatment of Scotland during the Brexit process marked the “material change in circumstances” needed for the SNP to have a mandate for a vote.
She also suggested that a change of prime minister might be enough for a fresh bid to break-up Britain.
She claimed that if the former foreign secretary became the next PM it would send many people across the UK into “utter despair”.“
“Indyref2 will happen sooner rather than later”
How? Explain to me how we make it happen.
“Your assumption you take from this that she is lying about Indyref2 next year is just that – an assumption. Not a clear lie.”
It’s a clear lie. If Brexit doesn’t happen there’s no “material change of circumstances” and no mandate. We’ll need to get one in 2021, therefore we can’t possibly have a referendum before then.
“Stop Brexit AND have Indy Ref 2 before 2021.”
Once again: how?
Rev. Stuart Campbell@6.22pm
I think we will just have to agree to disagree.
I will point out that the Scottish Parliament have already approved Indyref2 and are proceeding with a bill to carry out a referendum. You, of course, know this I am sure. Therefore you logically think that this is all a waste of time and one big lie.
I accept your right to call out any politicians for lying. I just don’t think you are correct in this instance. A broken promise is only a lie if there is evidence that the intention was never to go ahead with said promise in the first place. I don’t believe you have such evidence in this instance. You certainly haven’t shared it on Wings. You suspect it is a lie. You MAY be correct but that is your opinion.
Yesindyref2@5.58pm @10.41am
Good to see you back posting.
Re your earlier post I agree that I have no desire to see independence politicians lying like Britnats. It’s just that I don’t see that the case for Nicola Sturgeon lying has been made. Now perhaps the site owner has evidence that he does not want to share. Possible but not knowing of any such evidence I have formed the view that in this case – no lying has been proven. A very Scottish not proven verdict.
A “better” source for that quote from the FM:
https://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/scottish-tories-are-comfortable-opposition-ruth-davidson-back-they-have
It’s a “material change”, the way Westminster hasn’t consulted Holyrood, has broken Sewell, had already legislated to remove powers that would be coming to Holyrood on Brexit, the breakdown in communications, non-functioning of the JMC.
I’m sure Wolffe would be in his element advocating that lot was a satisfactory “material change” to justify the mandate for Indy Ref 2, if such a thing was neccessary.
Well Stu Corbyn has not put a foot wrong Scotland Tonight guest said Blackford and Gethins are working with Corbyn Milne .
Nicola believes firmly in Independence .She needs to see how this mess is going to work out .
But they will need to be ready for as I think will happen she asks for section 30 and PM whoever it is says no.
Stuart
I have kept ‘mum’ up until now but since you are now embarked upon..evidently..a continual and sustained attack on the SNP ..I think I have to remind you of THE most pertinent fact.
THE SNP IS THE ONLY…ONLY…POLITICAL VEHICLE CAPABLE OF SECURING INDEPENDENCE FOR SCOTLAND.
End of.
What a huge mass of overthinking.
How about -SNP fights for ‘Remain’ because that is what Scotland voted for and is economically sensible in the unattractive reality in which we live.
A Gen. Elec. will come – SNP will gain, Tories will get hammered in Scotland and Slab will wilt.We will have fought with Indy high in the SNP manifesto and that will be a new mandate.
Who knows what hell will descend on the UK as Eng. Nats. go ‘nuclear’. We apply for Art. 30 – get the finger – go to the UN and the struggle enters a new phase.
Relatively simple – although it may start to look like Ireland in the early 1920’s !!
Alt Clut @ 7-40pm
Pretty much my own sentiments.
I just don’t get Stuart’s negativety re SNP when he knows full well they are the only publicly subscribed and nominated political party to pursue Scottish Independence.
He needs to wind his neck in.
p.s. I have subscribed and funded Wings for some time now.
Rev. Stuart Campbell @ 18:18:
Yes, this is the real nub of the problem, not the other stuff. It’s this supposed SG impotence and supplication that many find exceeding troublesome.
With clear majority support, the refusal of S.30 becomes nigh on impossible to sustain, but without a campaign, the clear majority support might never appear. This is the Catch-22 we are facing. Something is needed to break the logjam, and it needs to come from the SG/SNP. It won’t come from anyone else.
And @ 18:22:
No, this is incorrect. It assumes a status quo that no longer exists. The continual overriding of Scottish interests in connection with what’s already happened over Brexit is quite sufficient. An English supremacist government in London. You can’t say it’s not nothing.
Tam the Bam @ 7.50
Agreed.
Basically speaking the SNP got elected in 2015, 56 out of 59 MPs, to go to Westminster over Smith and “hold their feet to the fire”, which they did with varying degrees of success depending on how you look at it.
Now what we have is a long-standing SNP mandate for Indy Ref 2, and some people, me included by the way in my own way, determined to “hold the SNP’s feet to the fire” over the mandate for Indy Ref 2.
“Your comment is awaiting moderation”
Does take away the motivation to bother, and quite frankly I wouldn’t, but I think two blogs, plus another mention in-between, ummm, elsewhere, about the author of this blog is well excessive.
Plus the arbitrary dismissal of the Wings party has not been done with a range of figures, for instance taking 50% of the SNP list vote (i.e. 21% of the list vote) very clearly leads to more pro-Indy MSPs, whereas only taking 5% of the SNP list vote (i.e. 2% overall) wouldn’t do a thing.
I don’t see where the confusion comes in.
The SNP wants to stay in the EU.
“We apply for Art. 30 – get the finger – go to the UN and the struggle enters a new phase.”
The idea that the UN will intervene is just cuckoo for Coco Pops. They haven’t intervened for Catalonia and they have a much stronger case than we would.
I grew up in the United Nations family. Over decades I have witnessed the strength and good effect of the UN.
The Scottish and Catalonian work towards Independence come from different starting places.
You know that.
the idea of “going to the UN” has been rubbished – and this is right and also – dead wrong.
when I say “the UN”, I really mean the permanent members of the security council, which for our purposes amounts to : the US
there are at least two countries which exist simply because the US said so : israel and kosovo – that is their power, they say it and their vassals capitulate
– and this is where you have to get your hands dirty with “realpolitik”, something I often stress.
the US is contemptuous of the UK and thinks the special relationship is a joke – it will do exactly what is in its own business interests, and this is where you, “you” being FM, have to sell it to them; they like us, they are already here – the oil, the strategic position, lockheed-martin and jp morgan, trumps golf courses. You could at least, get them to stay out of it, or keep it fair, stop the perfidious ones and their shenanigans.
– a lot of americans “hate the brits” and go on about 1776 and all that; blame the british for dragging them into world wars, burning the whitehouse. We have many friends if only we extend a hand.
– it should be an easy sell to a man who wrote a book called “the art of the deal”
But no, our FM and to be fair Salmond as well, like to score cheap shots and pose at gay pride marches – yeah, we lost in 2014 because the trannies were not with us … yeah, right; US presidents are ALL cunts – obama droned the fuck out of people, just as dubya did, but he looked like sidney poitier and his schtick was good – its just like the weather, you have to deal with it – and this hair-terrorist could end up with a second term, and us needing a favour from him.
naively going to the UN and asking them for “hauners” is, of course, real stupid – you need the fix to be already in.
– as for catalonia, I dunno the details, but they seem like a real bunch of dummies – they were hoping from something from the EU, but it has no hard power at all, and even more than that, it has interests in Spain, something to do with their debts and a repayment deal; the EU are useless, and in their own way, also a bunch of shits (greece).
“international law” is very powerful when it aligns with US business interests.
– if it came down to the FM agreeing to buy a squadron of the turkey-esque F-35s for the new Scottish Air Force, so be it. The UK could not do anything about a “wildcat” referendum, and would not be able to pull any tricks – and when it lost, it would have to sit in the corner, quietly, eating shit, just like it did in suez.
Rev. Stuart Campbell@2.37am
“They haven’t intervened for Catalonia and they have a much stronger case than we would.”
I would be interested to hear what that case is.
Aye well Confused, you would say that.
HAROLD WILSON did deals with the americans to outfox his own deep state – he was smart and a realist, and he wanted to win, for he knew the kind of project his opponents had in mind – “thatcherism” was held off for a full decade, and it also kept the UK out of vietnam.
– seeking outside help from more powerful nations is just common sense and historically its what you need to do; the american “rebels” got help from the french, the irish from the americans, at various times, israel had help from britain, france, america, even norway; right now the UK gov has immense resources levelled against us, and ultimately, the threat of violence – we need to negate that, level the playing field. (- the recent glasgow “loyalist street theatre” curiously timed, no?)
Everyone is currently arguing over and about “what happens next” in a situation so chaotic even the main players don’t know what they are doing – does boris have a plan other than read the latest cummings email and follow instruction?
– I don’t know what will happen, or when, but I do think I know what is on the last page of the last chapter of this long running drama –
it is our FM (which I hope is still Sturgeon) at the UN looking for recognition for Scotland
– and when this happens, she better have all her alliances, understandings, deals, fixes, -whatever- already in place, otherwise it becomes a “hail mary pass” or more scottishly – an attempt at an overhead kick from 30 yards out in injury time.
“let us be a country because its our moral right and we are the good guys”
– this doesn’t really cut it. It never did – check out the melian dialogue if you like it real old-skool TL;DR – “The strong do what they can, the weak suffer what they must”; the deep bowels of the british state are something monstrous and utterly inhuman, something lovecraft would have been shocked by. Post 79 the entire british economy was re-engineered – it no longer did real capitalism – simply money scams at the top, and backed at the bottom by hard resources, oil and gas, ours. Our freedom is a death sentence for them – an existential threat, a defence of the realm issue – they can never allow it. They will react with full vigour and spectrum of method – concepts like democracy, the will of the people, the right to self determination – this they are wholly contemptuous of, its just bullshit to placate the masses.
I would long have put myself in the “wait till you see the whites of their eyes”-camp but – I can SEE THE LITTLE VEINS now … “soon” is now, NOW.
I know the news is concentrating on Coronavirus but….
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52274242
How about this story for upping the ante?
Seems there is an out of control forest fire preaching Chernobyl – 3km away. It has been suggested that radiation levels have spiked but apparently that tweet was deleted.
Let’s keep our fingers crossed that they get some rain to put the fire out.!!!