Keeping it honest
This site’s primary purpose is the provision of facts. We want to persuade people of the merits of independence, but we want to do it with the truth, which is why we have a conspicuous policy of providing links whenever we make factual assertions. That often means criticising other media when it adopts a more lax approach to upholding proper journalistic standards, whether we like that media or not.
Last night’s Scotland Tonight repeatedly made a casual assertion about opinion polls on independence which, as we’ll see in a moment, was simply untrue. We make, and intend, no suggestion that they did so from malice or bias. We’re just pointing out that they got it wrong, so that people will be armed with the correct facts.
The show’s reporter David Marsland preceded the episode’s studio discussion on the independence debate with a recorded package including the words “[Alex Salmond] will be hoping public opinion, roughly two to one against according to recent polls, will be swinging in his favour”. (Our emphasis, and note the plural.)
Presenter John Mackay then opened the debate by repeating the claim, putting the following proposition to pro-independence guest Harry Reid:
“The challenge for the Yes campaign coming this year, Harry, is that they’ve got to turn around this obstinate two-to-one support for the Union.”
Our emphasis again. But note the word “obstinate”, which suggests not only that there’s a two-to-one majority but that it’s been so for an extended period. That didn’t seem to square with our recollection of the reality, so we went off to check the facts.
UK Polling Report maintains a record of most polls on the subject of independence going back as far as 1999, and while it’s not 100% comprehensive (it doesn’t include, for example, the October 2012 Panelbase poll that put support at 37% Yes to 45% No) it’s got a pretty decent amount of data. You can see that data for yourself at its website, but we’ve crunched some numbers for you from the 48 polls there which present a straight Yes/No choice, excluding any “devo max” option.
If you accept “roughly two to one” as any poll where the No vote is at least 9/10ths higher than the Yes vote, it’s true that the most recent Ipsos Mori effort, from October 2012, just sneaks in by the barest possible margin. Of the 47 other polls recorded in the last 13 years, just seven meet the same standard. Every single one of those other seven was conducted by YouGov, and all of them took place in 2009 and 2010.
YouGov admitted in October 2011 that its polling had until then been poorly weighted with regard to both the SNP and Plaid Cymru, tending to under-represent support for the nationalist parties, and adjusted its methodology accordingly. Since then it has never recorded a poll which meets our “Yes figure plus 90%” criterion, though it still tends to find a higher No lead than other pollsters.
If you take the averages of all 2012 polling recorded by UKPR (and therefore excluding Panelbase), you get figures of 33 Yes, 52 No. That, as arithmetically-competent readers will notice, is quite a long way short of two to one – it’s a lead of 19 points, or 14 points short of the 66% No vote required for a 2:1 ratio. If you add the Panelbase October poll, the average closes to 34-51: a 17-point lead that’s also 17 points short of two-to-one, or in other words only HALFWAY to the claims STV made for it last night.
For 2011, the average in polls recorded by UKPR is almost identical, at 34-50. For 2010 it’s 31-53, and 2009 is the same. That’s a gap of 22 points compared to the current 17, and even that historic low point for the Yes campaign – in the middle of the economic crash – is a full nine points short of a two-to-one margin. (Since then independence has made some small but measurable progress, despite having had to endure the Great Patriotic Year Of Britishness.)
You can accuse us of nitpicking if you like. But the simple fact is that 34 to 51 is nowhere NEAR a 2:1 margin, not even “roughly”. (Even if you take Marsland’s original statement at face value and limit the figures to “recent” polls, there have only been two conducted in the last six months – the Ipsos MORI and the Panelbase. The average of those is 34-52, in line with our other averages.)
If you want to simplify figures for easy viewer consumption, the consistent average over several years (discounting don’t-knows) is extremely close to three-to-two, a very different situation in terms of making up the gap. Scotland’s only independent national broadcaster ought to be a little less cavalier with its arithmetic.
Most of this problem has been caused by what appears to be an embedded tendency of the MSM to spin the headline figures to show the “yes” vote as far behind. This is easily achieved by ignoring the usual process in the declaration of polling of eliminating the “don’t knows”from the declared result.
A classic case some time ago was when one poll showed “Yes” at 38% and “No” at 37%-this was headlined as the “Yes” vote only being at 38%, an apparently losing position, but a wholly misleading presentation.
My hope is that Better Together may well fool themselves and be overly complacent about a lead that is less than is often portrayed.
It’s a point that has been made before but is worth making again – neither I nor anyone I know has ever been polled about our political views, far less on independence.
The polls also take no account of those (my father being one) who would have initially settled for some form of devo max but, now that that is seen to be a pipe dream, intend voting Yes. Had he been polled even three months ago he would have given a ‘No’ response.
The more clarity on the debate the better it will be for our cause. Cynics would suggest that is why the ‘Scottish’ MSM are gleefully ensuring that clarity does not feature.
Basically, they have equated any opinion that isn’t an unequivocal ‘Yes’ as a ‘No’. On the one hand it’s lazy journalism – but then, you have to question the subconscious mindset that would allow that to happen. Since Scotland Tonight generally has a better track record than say, Newsnight, on the Indy debate, this is doubly disappointing.
It all comes back to that question of confidence mentioned over the weekend. What I’ve always found in debates with unionists is that, when all else fails them (and it does, of course) they fall back on the ‘Well, if independence was so great then how come hardly anyone supports it? You can argue all you like but people aren’t going to vote for it.’ This is based on nothing more than polling evidence. If we can get that moving in the right direction – even accurately reported – we have a chance of a virtuous cycle of support leading to confidence leading to support etc.
About a 5% swing is all that’s needed right now; that’s ignoring the unsures, for the referendum to be on full independence and for it being held tomorrow morning. yes, tomorrow – make your mind up now!
Very, very few polls ever show >50% support for the union. I have about 6 out of 46 >50% No going back to 1998. Which, incidentally, is the same number of Yes > 50% ones.
Yes was a head of No late last summer. Has dropped back now as expected. should begin to rise again over the next year. Bit like what happened 2009-2011 with the Labour vs SNP vote.
Always remember that unsures don’t support the union. They like the idea of independence. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t answer unsure now would they.
It would also be helpful if these objective and honest pundits could remember that we are not actually voting for Alex Salmond or the SNP.
We are voting about the future of Scotland.
Its the biggest opportunity that any of us will have in our lifetimes to make an enormous difference to the way we live.
When you have voted NO to give AS a kicking, and you are sitting back enjoying the reflected glow from Jessica Ennis’s gold medal, while listening to “Things Can Only Get Better”, just remember what the Unionist parties will be looking to do post referendum.
It ain’t going to be pretty.
Vote YES.
Anything that breeds complacency….
And note that people don’t vote a particular way because opinion polls say that’s the most popular option. Polls only reflect what people are thinking; they don’t influence that thinking. So, keeping saying ‘Polls don’t show support for independence’ will change sweet FA.
A consequence of these unionist MSM, finally spun opinion poll figures is that the Better Together team may seriously delude themselves that they are doing a great job, and continue with their relentless negativity in 2013 (fatal error). It may even persuade a few soft No voters not to bother to vote in 2014. It is still very much all to play for. A 30-35% solid core YES, at this early stage, is a fantastic base to start a positive, inclusive campaign from. The relentless negativity and propaganda raged against us means that the slow, steady increase in YES support is rock solid, and will not be shaken, unlike the NO vote, 50% of which is very soft and fluctuates wildly. In this respect, the MSM are doing us a great favour.
Scottish Skier said
About a 5% swing is all that’s needed right now; that’s ignoring the unsures, for the referendum to be on full independence and for it being held tomorrow morning. yes, tomorrow – make your mind up now!
Ah, I wish I believed you. But weren’t you the weather geek who was telling us it would be absoute brass monkeys in late December? Done much skiing in the last month? 😉
I’m very glad you are onto this. It has been going on for years and I am fed up writing to newspapers to no response on it.. Ian Macwhirter made the same assertion in his Sunday Herald column last week and I have written to them(again).
Basically they count the don’t knows/don’t cares as NOs
In actual fact if you count those into the YES vote or just discount them all together you could truthfully say that on virtually all polls that only a minority of Scots support the union.
The actual fact is that about one third of Scots more or less support Independence,about one third of Scots more or less support the union and the rest don’t know/don’t care/probably won’t vote
From my own expedition into the thicket of the polling history on independence, I came away with the impression that as little an 8-point swing in voting intention would give the YES camp a plurality (with the undecided/don’t knows included in the calculation), excluding them of course, would yield an absolute majority voting YES.
I further reasoned the undecided would most likely break – abstain, vote for change, vote for the status quo – in that order most to least. That is to say, inclusion of the undecideds would not alter the outcome of the referendum if YES gained a plurality of votes overall.)
Anyway, what is certain is that for most of the chattering class, that who world of fact and verification is terra incognita.
Challenging or corroborating received wisdoms, like the “2:1 are pro Union” meme, seems to be considered taboo in the Fourth Estate.
It could be of course that the hacks and the opinion-makers are simply lazy and incompetent propagandists who believe their job is just to make stuff up.
@Morag
Weather forecasting is far less accurate that political forecasting! More like Whitehall economic predictions.
We came quite close, but missed out yet again (bloody great big warm Atlantic next to us). Should have kept my trap shut – must have jinxed it. Not saying anything about next week 😉
scottish_skier says: “Polls only reflect what people are thinking; they don’t influence that thinking”
Got to disagree with you there. Push polling is habitually used in the campaign as an instrument of propaganda to shape the political agenda and to create new memes that are quickly absorbed and regurgitated by the MSM for the edification of the Great Unwashed.
That is to say the goal is specifically to influence thinking.
S-S
I’m running on winter tyres with ambient temperature (on the morning run to work) of 8.5C. I’ve got premium VW screen-wash that’s supposed to be good down to -70C.
And I’m thinking of taking the winter-weight duvet off my bed.
“Basically they count the don’t knows/don’t cares as NOs”
Yeah. You often get “only a third back independence”, which is misleading but technically correct. Scotland Tonight went over the line.
@ Christian Wright
I’ll tend to disagree but agree. Someone who is giving the debate serious thought will not be influenced by polls. The influence, if any, is if no voters think a no is guaranteed, they might not bother voting. Yes voters will vote come hell or high water.
If we take Scottish opinion polls 2009-2011 for Holyrood. SNP were on 40% 2009. Then, as the 2010 GE approached, they then dropped 10% quite suddenly. This was because the 10% Lab-SNP swing voters were panicking at a Tory return. They then failed to stop the Tories yet were prepared to vote Labour for Holyrood solely for the same purpose, as shown in a labour surge in polls late 2010 for Holyrood. The MSM were all over this, how Labour were looking good, could even get a majority, the SNPs days were numbered etc. The collapse in the Labour vote that followed was spectacular but was predictable; it was just that 10% gulping and going back to the party they really preferred, even if that meant possibly leaving the union. What I mean is you can see the patterns and they show no evidence of people reacting to polls. The reaction instead is to events. My opinion anyway.
Labour are looking really good in UK polls, yet most people conclude a win in 2015 is unlikely…
I’ve said for years that the base support is 35% Yes with a variance of 5% either way, and 45% No, also with a variance of 5%, and the rest (roughly 20%) undecided. Most of these figures, allowing for the usual error margin in polling (which I think is generally 3%) fall pretty squarely within that range.
I also believe that when it comes to the crunch the Don’t Knows will fall more heavily (either by voting or by abstinence) on the Yes side, though not by an absolutely massive margin. If you split them at a modest 12% Yes to 8% No, that gives you a Yes vote of 47%. It really is much closer than people think.
Facts and figures? These are only statistics which can be interpreted in all sorts of ways. I like scottish skiers relentless optimism. – This is slightly off topic but an interesting article which has one or two contradictions
http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=d7dc7588-7a65-48de-9642-d125fd8dab70
Imagine if we had a media that came at the figures from the opposite angle – “only one in two people actively back the union”. What a difference that would make to the overall narrative.
It would be nice to see figures more accurately reported – i.e. 34% Yes and 51% No equates to 40% Yes and 60% No when correcting for the fact that you’re talking about 85% rather than 100% – but this would require both basic mathematical abilities (some of these media types have barely passable language skills) and an inclination to report what’s true, rather than what’s a “good” story.
Oh, and of course after the SNP 2011 win polls showed the Yes overtake the No by Autumn (now fallen back a bit), even though ‘only 30% supported independence and the majority the union’…
Reacting to events, not polls.
First we had win euphoria versus Tory return panic (yes overtakes no). Now we have ‘gulp, independence is really a real prospect, what will it all mean’ (yes drops back, no climbs a little). In time, it will become less scary and things will swing back the other way. Much like 2009-2011 for Holyrood. It’s those SNP for Holyrood but Labour for UK 10% or so who will most likely carry the Yes.
This “2 to 1 against” figure has been quoted since the initial announcement.
Importantly, it takes no account of what has happened to those who wanted Devo-Max, now it is no longer on offer. These are people who are thinking about the situation, and now have to make a decision.
Totally lazy journalism, and taking no account of a dynamic situation.
Counting a non-vote as a No Vote worked for them in 1979, but won’t in 2013.
I notice, Rev Stu, that you don’t even mention the assumption that Alex Salmond is the Yes Campaign. I know we are all fed up with this, but it is disappointing in Scotland Tonight, which, I confess, I had some hopes for.
Ah weel. Nation shall speak unto Nation, eh? But it always seem to be Scotland that’s being spoken to.
Whilst my chats with oor Bill on another thread have been unresolved to say the least, it did set me thinking a bit.
Harold MacMillan’s famous comment about ‘events, dear boy, events’, could blow either side out of the water. I recall, much to my surprise, just how bloody angry I was when Argentina invaded the Falklands. (Yes, I am that old.) It is probably the only time in my life I have felt patriotic on a UK basis. Obviously it was the right thing to do, albeit it ought to have been avoided. I am still fairly convinced that Thatchers re-election owed as much to her ‘victory’ there as to anything else. There is also the counter intuitive re-election of Tony Blair after we had entered battle, or slaughter, take your pick, in Iraq.
So, events can swing opinion, pretty dramatically.
Patriotism is said to be the last refuge of the scoundrel. I wonder whether there will be a ‘convenient’ little war somewhere between now and Autumn 2014. We certainly seem to be doing our best to wind up Argentina and Iran is always a possibility……..
I’m growing accustomed to being considered a bit of a twat for supporting independence so I think this media spin that ‘hardly anyone wants it’ is being quite successful. But misery likes company, as my mother used to say. If the polls were pointing in the other direction then those who now so proudly state their intention to reject independence as if that were really cool and daring, might begin to feel a bit more exposed. Unfortunately I’ve got a feeling that 60% for independence, 30% against and 10% undecided/not voting would be reported as ‘support for Union rallies’.
I’d thought for a while that the negativity of the No campaign was a deliberate ploy to depress voters into staying at home, but I now think this would be dangerous for them. Yes voters are probably more committed to turning up at the polling station so a no-show by the Noes could be disastrous for them. Bit of a Catch-22 for poor Mr Darling: scunner the voters and lose the referendum, enthuse the voters and lose the referendum. Decisions, decisions.
The polls are very important in the unionist narrative of dismissing those who support independence as some lunatic fringe trying to drag the “silent majority” kicking and screaming into “a breakup of the UK”. They’re also very important in quashing the debate and making those who support independence, or are considering it feel that they’re part of that lunatic fringe, and that they really don’t have the support of those around them. It’s the same kind of patronising put down they’ve been using for decades.
The 30% figure is wrong, for all the reasons above. But also, I don’t believe for a moment that there have only been 2 polls done in the past 6 months. There have only been 2 polls the mainstream media have chosen to publish done in the past 6 months. There will be polls being done in the fond hope of keeping that narrative going. But that should become harder now devo-max is off the table entirely. What will polls say once the question is settled, and those polls ask the question as phrased?
I have been polled, btw, by YouGov on indy twice. The first time was way back in May, and I clicked “no” on that one because at that time my preferred option was a federal UK. Had that been on the ballot in addition, I would actually have voted yes/yes (yes to indy and yes to devo-max if that failed to get 50%) but the straight answer to the question (which I think was do you want Scotland to separate from the UK) was no.
The second time the poll asked two questions. The first was a sliding scale of how strongly you felt about indy – strongly for/against, slightly for/against, etc. I’ve never seen the results of that one. It then had a follow up question that stated “if Scotland were to go independent, it would have to re-apply for EU membership which would mean having to take the Euro. Would this make you more likely, less likely etc to support indy?” I did write in the comments at the end that this was an assertion and totally biased question.
That second poll was about a week before all the EU scare stories started. I often wonder if I get polled because I’m a woman living in Glasgow, so statistically least likely to support indy?
In the months before the Falklands Mrs T’s popularity was on the slide. Her Gov was looking for ways to save money and giving out clear signals re the prohibitive costs of having to be in the South Atlantic. She didn’t give a monkeys about the Falkland Islanders until Argentina jumped the gun and invaded. I can remember my father being blazingly angry with her.
@Vronsky
The problem for the Yes campaign is to maintain momentum, while at the same time not producing referendum fatigue among the voters. I think the Yes campaign will need to think about introducing well known people who support independence to the media earlier. The involvement of Blair Jenkins is a good example. It breaks the sense of isolation that some Yes supporters feel and shows the wider electorate of the intent and seriousness of the Yes campaign. I think the independence march was good in this regard, but it is something that needs to be maintained. I don’t know if a march at Faslane is an option or is planned, but that sort of a thing brings media attention and focus to an important issue in the referendum campaign. It also means that the Yes campaign is the one setting the agenda. Whatever you think about the EU issue and the way it was handled, the No campaign were setting the agenda on that particular subject.
“It then had a follow up question that stated “if Scotland were to go independent, it would have to re-apply for EU membership which would mean having to take the Euro. Would this make you more likely, less likely etc to support indy?” “
Crikey. Can I ask that if in future anyone gets polled with a question like that, can you take a screenshot and tweet/send it to us?
@Vronsky
” Yes voters are probably more committed to turning up at the polling station”
I think this is borne out by the many online polls which show support for independence at 80-90%. Obviously these are totally unscientific, but if the NoScotland voters can’t even be bothered to click a button on a website….
There’s an anti-Trident march in Glasgow on Saturday 13th April and a blockade of the base on the 15th (it’s closed at the weekends). It’s important that as many indy supporters as possible turn up to show the UK government how strongly we feel. I don’t know who the speakers are, as yet, but I know that talks are scheduled with AS.
This march is just as important as the September marches.
@Rev
The purpose of the biased question is so that the poll’s sponsor can determine if that line of attack will be effective. It was obviously paid for by the No campaign (ie Tory dinning clubs in deepest Surrey).
Yes, Rev. If I received it now I’d send it to you, for sure – didn’t think of that at the time. I did wonder about sending a screen-shot to SNP HQ but in the end just tweeted the question. It was pretty clear from the survey what their next line of attack was about to be. But I also thought it reeked of desperation as well – of “how can we get those poll figures down?”
@Cuphook
Cheers for that. Has there been much publicity about this? Given that the Radical Independence Conference recently got nearly a thousand people then hopefully the turnout will be good.
@muttley
I’m sure that publicity will increase when the details as to speakers etc are finalised. The dates are correct though, so I’d encourage everyone to raise it at branch meetings of YES Scotland and their political parties, unions etc. A large march on the 15th would really bring some perspective to the debate.
I would have to catch a lift with someone as I don’t have a car.
They are planning buses. I’ll let you know when details are published.
Cheers Cuphook.
@AFG
NoScotland
How pertinent. Sums it up well. Vote No for no Scotland. Literally, no Scotland; just One Tory British Nation.
@cath
“I have been polled, btw, by YouGov on indy twice. The first time was way back in May”
Interesting that you were polled twice in a short perod. The odds against that happening must be very high. Maybe they came back to you and others originally polled to see how solid your Yes/No was. If so, we must ask if their polls are really random samples.
I too have wondered where all the pollsters have gone. And with the same thought that maybe there have been a number but the results haven’t suited the No-Men agenda. I would have thought there would have been a spate of polls in the New Year; but there’s only the one in “The Express” last week.
@muttley79
No problem. It is planned to have another march in 2014 so with the September marches that gives us four opportunities to get out in the streets and raise our profile. If the wider YES campaign gets onboard then the numbers will be impressive.
I’m going to echo what everyone else has been saying. If we take out the unknowns it would be about 40-60 split between yes and no respectively. 1.5:1 nowhere near 2:1 and it could be argued its even closer to this. The fact that its emphasized how little people support Independence is too make it feel like a strange minority view and make the weak yes’s question their descision.
Regardless the amount of people who still have it ingrained that Scotland is too wee, too poor and too stupid is just. depressing. All you need to do is type in Scottish Independence in the search bar on twitter to see the number of individuals who are so certain Scotland would fail, become like Africa and we would join the euro, be attacked by the Russians, Chinese etc. Honestly its embarrassing. Its even worse than what Unionist politicians are saying and I would imagine that these are by no means a tiny minority. Probably at least half of the Pro-Union supporters are as ignorant as this.
Many people feel that Britian is amongst the richest and most succesful nation on earth no matter its faults. This is propagated by a media that exaggerates the financial collapse of the Eurozone and plight of other european countries. Most people are unaware that Britain is poorly performing amongst all Western European nations and amongst the poorest. Most people have no idea that Britian has the worst wealth distribution in Europe, some of the highest child poverty in europe. Is ranked only 22nd by the IMF on GDP per capita. Is ranked 28th on HDI scale which is probably the most accurate measurment of quality of living. We never hear how much better things are elsewhere, only worse.
It saddens me that the merits of Scottish Independence are so obvious if you take a bit of time out and research it, it becomes blindingly obvious that Scotland would be much better off as an independent country. Ignorance is our main enemy.
@Cuphook
If the wider YES campaign gets onboard then the numbers will be impressive.
Hopefully they will.
@scottish_skier
YesScotland or NoScotland – that’s the choice.
“I would have thought there would have been a spate of polls in the New Year; but there’s only the one in “The Express” last week.”
Yes, and what a strange poll that was. For one thing their 32% figure was “if another option was included on the ballot paper”. It won’t be, so why ask? Secondly, their “those who want to stay in the UK” figure (if another option was on the paper) was a very non-specific “over 70%”. Which adds up to somewhere over 102%.
Taken together with a clear desperation to push down numbers by lying about the Euro, you have to conclude they’re struggling to get the results they want.
That said, I don’t think we can be complacent – it’s far better if the other side are complacent. And also there is a very real danger that their ploy works; that it does make those who don’t like talking about indy (of whom there are many) feel bullied into continuing not to talk, and those who might support feel like they’re in a smaller minority than they are.
Also agree about the truly depressing level of ignorance of people who say they’ll vote no. However, on the positive side, I’ve had people who’ve said things like “I’d totally love for Scotland to be independent but…” before spouting all the brainwashing unionist rubbish. If some of those people are woken up to the truth, they’ll not only rapidly become yes voters but also, I imagine, very vocal and passionate ones.
@AndrewFraeGovan says:
“YesScotland or NoScotland – that’s the choice.”
This is for you Andrew:
https://twitter.com/Sneekyboy/status/288668219970035712
Keeping with the Orwellian strands popular of late on here; perhaps “Ignorance is Strength” truly is the NO camp’s mantra.
Iincidentally, regarding the skewed picture of the rest of the world viewed through London’s flawed prism, are there any overseas sources where you can gain a balanced, honest view of how the UK looks to outsiders? It would be nice to know what the rest of the world really makes of this island and its denizens.
Cath – “However, on the positive side, I’ve had people who’ve said things like “I’d totally love for Scotland to be independent but…” before spouting all the brainwashing unionist rubbish.”
This is the thing – I think most people, at heart, would want Scotland to be independent. They just don’t realise we can do it.
I dunno how you lot are getting into discussions with folk about independence, but ever since I started wearing my Yes Scotland badge on my coat (which I picked up at the Yes Aberdeen launch) I’ve had three folk tell me they are going to vote yes, and another tell me she liked the idea but wasn’t sure if we could afford it. I’ve always felt like declaring you’re pro-indy is a bit like farting in a lift, but now that it’s on the agenda for everyone, it’s okay for folk to admit their true feelings. The longer this campaign goes on, the less scared people are going to be by the concept of independence.
When it comes down to it, people vote with their heart more than their head – hence why the Labour party still exists. When presented with a once in a lifetime opportunity to make Scotland independent, are these “I would like independence, but can we afford it?” people really going to throw away this chance? I doubt it.
Also, as others have mentioned, is someone who in their heart wants Scotland to be independent – but isn’t sure we can afford it – REALLY going to make the effort to go to the polling booth and condemn us to the union forever? I doubt it.
Not to mention the good old “fuck it, why not?” effect…
@ macdoc
“Most people are unaware that Britain is poorly performing amongst all Western European nations”
Spot on, you just need to look at the exchange rates over the last few months to prove your point.
Unfortunately a large portion of Scotland’s electorate is virtually bereft of the interpretive skills required to make sense of the world around them. In light of this, the discussion of polls and their findings provides an alternative to evidence based analysis. One that undoubtedly benefits those in a position to shape the parameters of the discussion. As such, they should be recognised for the sneaky propaganda vehicles that they are. They should definitely not be dismissed out of hand as being of no consequence.
Given that economists and military defense specialists comprise a small %age of the population in Scotland, and that the Tories and their credo doesn’t hold much sway in Scotland thus Unionist SLabour with their “bread and butter” domestic economy, working families etc strategy is surely the independence debate battleground.
The problem for SLabour and UK Labour is split objectives. Lamont will have to whirl thro’ more turns than in an eightsome reel to try and explain and reconcile espoused traditional labour values with New Labour policy as decreed from Westminster. Any debate she dares to enter will require her to explain the “something for nothing” speech. Wasn’t Willie Bain on Call Kaye this week spouting support for universal benefits? One caller from Dundee asked why the income tax on his £21000 salary should go towards paying child benefit to a millionaire.Even encouragement from dear Kaye couldn’t get Willie to answer the question.