The ruined summer
Firstly, our congratulations to Her Majesty’s Government (pictured below) on its setting last night of a new world record in incompetence.
We can’t see it being beaten in a long time. But Jesus, what now?
Well, let’s see what we know.
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1. THERESA MAY IS STILL THE PRIME MINISTER
God save us all. The punditariat is already alive with talk of how she must surely resign now, and that “grey men” will knock on her door in the dead of night and usher her away to a safe padded room, to be replaced by [NOBODY KNOWS AND ALL OF THE POSSIBLE CREDIBLE ALTERNATIVES ARE EVEN MORE HORRIFYING].
May vowed mere days ago that she simply could not tolerate continuing as PM past her preferred Brexit extension date of June 30, just like she said she wouldn’t call a general election in 2017, and just like she said she wouldn’t pull the first meaningful vote in Parliament last December, and just like she said, over 100 times, that the UK would definitely leave the EU – no ifs, no buts, no maybes – on March 29.
Alert readers may have noticed that the UK has not left the EU.
The Prime Minister has none of the senses of shame, dignity or decency which have traditionally been the cement holding the UK’s non-existent constitution together. Like many MPs did after the expenses scandal of 2009, she’s realised that if you just keep brazening things out, no matter how outrageous, there’s really very little that anyone can do about it in practice.
She will not leave 10 Downing Street unless absolutely forced to, and the botched Tory leadership coup of last year makes that almost impossible to achieve. So as things stand we’re doomed to another six months of her battering away trying to get her dead duck of a deal through the Commons (well, more like three, factoring in Easter and summer recesses), followed by a return in October to where we were yesterday.
2. THE EU IS SPINELESS
It’s obvious to even really hungover amoeba living in trenches in the deepest depths of the Pacific Ocean that the UK is utterly incapable of solving this mess. The EU already gave us one deadline to get the deal passed (last October), then when we missed that it gave us another deadline (March 29), then when we missed that it gave us another deadline (April 12), and now we’ve missed that it’s… given us another deadline.
The humane thing to do would be to put the UK out of its misery and pull the plug now, but instead the EU appears to think it’d be better (or possibly just hilarious) to put us through a humiliating and idiotic round of EU elections – another thing Theresa May previously said was unthinkable but hasn’t resigned over – and imagine that THAT will somehow fix everything.
Evidently they must really enjoy having Nigel Farage and all his pals in Brussels and Strasbourg and can’t bear to let them go just yet, because it seems highly likely that an EU election next month would see furious Leave voters return lots of pro-Brexit MEPs with instructions to cause as much malicious havoc as possible.
3. JEREMY CORBYN STILL WANTS BREXIT
Despite the most stupendously inept clown show of a UK government in the entirety of recorded history, Labour still can’t get ahead in the polls and Corbyn’s personal ratings as a potential Prime Minister are at a jawdropping low of 20% – one vote in five in a two-horse race and fully 27 points behind “Oh god anyone else at all we’d take Lee from Blue at this point please just not this guy”.
Corbyn knows that with ratings like that his ONLY hope of ever forming a government is after the most catastrophic Brexit possible, one that annihilates the Tories but that he can avoid any share of responsibility for. (Quite aside from the fact that he himself wants out of the EU and always has.)
Now, what Corbyn personally wants is slightly moot, in so far as his MPs are now just openly ignoring the party whip in their dozens and scores and hundreds, but the very fact that he can’t get his ducks in a row pretty much guarantees that there’ll continue to be no majority in Parliament for anything for the next six months even if Labour WANT to work constructively with the Tories to get a deal through, which they don’t.
A different leader might make Labour an officially Remain party (or at least an official pro-“People’s Vote” one), but Corbyn won’t and there’s absolutely zero prospect of him being overthrown, so forget that idea too.
4. THERE WILL BE NO SECOND EU REFERENDUM
Seriously, sober up. You honestly think May is going to go through all this horror for all this time and then cave at the end, giving up the thing she’s nailed herself to for the last three years? You think if the Tories DID manage to – somehow – get rid of her it’d be to replace her with someone prepared to countenance a second vote that would shatter the party for a generation? Who do you think that would be? Go on, we’ll wait.
5. ARTICLE 50 WILL NOT BE REVOKED
See (4).
6. THERE WILL BE NO GENERAL ELECTION
Ah, but what if the PM wasn’t a Tory at all? Well, there isn’t a hope in hell of that (see the YouGov graphic above), but another general election would be an apocalyptic catastrophe for everybody and neither of the major parties actually wants one.
Scores of Labour MPs in overwhelmingly-Leave seats in the north of England would be in peril. Tory moderates would face a similar fate either at the hands of selection committees or the electorate, and the last shredded rags holding the party together would be torn asunder.
As it stands there’s no majority in Parliament to overturn the Fixed Term Parliaments Act for a second time in two years – enraging voters who already hold politicians in utter contempt even further and risking all manner of horrific consequences – and even the most suicidal Tory turkey isn’t going to vote for this particular Christmas.
But again, what if we’re wrong because nothing makes any sense any more and it happens anyway? The best hope for Remainers is that the splitting of the UKIP vote between the zombie corpse of the original party and Farage’s new Brexit Party would prevent it making any significant electoral headway in itself, but the way the UK’s broken electoral system works all but guarantees that a new election would simply put us right back where we are now, because the country is split down the middle and there’s no way either of the major parties would stand on a platform of explicitly rejecting the result of the 2016 referendum, either directly or via a second referendum.
(Remember, even today Labour is still insisting that it just wants a magically better Brexit, not to avoid it. If they thought there was any electoral mileage in reversing it, they’d have been there long before now.)
7. THE SNP HAS NO IDEA WHAT IT’S DOING
To be brutally frank, readers, it’s this site’s opinion that the SNP’s current position on Brexit – in favour of a “People’s Vote”, although nobody agrees on what that means – is an accidental one that Nicola Sturgeon got bounced into on the Andrew Marr show and hasn’t been able to find a face-saving way to back out of.
On top of that it’s pretty plain to us by now that it hasn’t got a clue how to move forward on independence either. We’ve noted previously that the legal grey area over whether Holyrood has the power to hold a referendum without Westminster approval should have been resolved years ago – being set in motion, with full justification and no significant downsides, the day Theresa May said “now is not the time”.
Had that happened it would have been settled one way or the other by now, and either outcome would have offered the SNP a big political gain – either the power to hold referendums whenever it liked, or undeniable proof that Scotland was a colonial vassal of the UK and devolution a sham, and that the only way to take control of our own destinies was to do it properly.
Instead, the gaping hole in strategy over BOTH of the big constitutional issues of the day – a policy amounting to sitting on its backside and waiting to react to events controlled elsewhere – has led the party into a great big sticky swamp that it has no easy way to escape unless the UK government throws it a lifebelt by crashing out of the EU in flames.
Its own membership and a lot of its MPs and MSPs would be beside themselves with anger if the SNP somehow saved England from itself and averted a hard or no-deal Brexit, destroying its own 2016 electoral mandate in the process and setting the cause of independence back for a decade at an absolute minimum.
Ironically, by being a decisive part of avoiding hard Brexit, the SNP would have proved that the UK worked and Scotland’s voice mattered.
Yet it’s perilously close to doing precisely that. It backed the Nick Boles proposal for a “Common Market 2.0” super-soft Brexit which was only narrowly defeated by a few hardline Labour rebels earlier this month, and if Change UK (the new name for The Independent Group) could be persuaded to support it – and we can’t fathom why they didn’t last time, since as far as we can tell it’s what they actually want – then it could be brought back to Parliament and passed.
The SNP’s mandate and argument for a second independence referendum, and the vote of the Scottish Parliament to hold one, would become null and void. The party would suffer a crushing double blow to its vote – both from fundamentalists for ineptly blowing the greatest chance at independence we’re likely to see in our lifetimes, and from the third of SNP voters who voted Leave, deserted the party in 2017 as a result and would stay away for good this time.
Any chance of a pro-indy majority at Holyrood in 2021 (which is already on a knife-edge) would completely evaporate. We all might as well just pack up and go home.
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So that’s where we’re at: idiots to the left, idiots to the right, idiots in the middle, idiots everywhere. For what it’s worth, our view is still that the UK is ultimately heading for a no-deal Brexit – the insoluble problems of the last three years aren’t going to suddenly become soluble if we make it three-and-a-half. The Irish border won’t just go away.
The only alternative that seems even remotely plausible is the Boles plan – a Brexit In Name Only (BINO) that in some ways is the worst of all possible worlds (throwing away many significant benefits of EU membership while getting nothing positive in return and, from our own perspective, destroying any real prospect of independence).
BINO would technically uphold both the result of the referendum and the Tory and Labour manifestos of 2017, and therefore at least theoretically prevent both of them completely imploding. But it would mean retaining freedom of movement – just about the only thing both parties have agreed is totally unacceptable in their recent joint negotiations – so it still seems a bit of a long shot even though the numbers are close.
So it looks like we’re all in for six more months of pointless misery. If we get any sunshine, we advise you to get outside as much as possible and just pretend none of this is happening.
Those of us who HAVE to watch the news because it’s our job, meanwhile, will keep ourselves busy looking around for buildings tall enough to jump off of.
There’s only one explanation. We’re dead and this is purgatory.
Aaaarrrrgggghhhh 🙁
(exceptional piece btw)
Succinctly put. Hope it’s a summer Indyref2. Sunshine always cheers us all up. How about June 24th – a day to remember?
I’m still holding out hope that the snp have a strategy.., but that hope is being stretched to the limit.
The worst PM in living memory, the worst Government in living memory and the worst opposition ever and yet the SNP cannot take advantage of this situation but would rather wait to see the leading team lose the game and we miraculously secure independence by superior goal difference.
Time to stop demanding permission – take control of our own destiny
I cannot fault these arguments. We need to look after ourselves, not attempt to play amateur psychiatrist the neighbour who’s up in the attic naked with a knife and a pint of foosty milk.
I thought the SNP were calling it canny, but I’ve had enough, too. Got my Dutch driving license yesterday, citizenship in two and a half years now…
Way ahead of you.
Been rearranging my sock drawer for weeks now. Could probably start polishing my head tomorrow (washing my hair is NOT an option these days). 😎
Anything can happen and therefore it probably will.
Does not E.V.E.L. Not constitute material change?
A very good piece, and I dare say pretty much on the money.
The SNP better take note and have a serious review of their strategy because I don’t think their current one is necessarily the correct one any more. If they continue to be reactive they will get outmaneuvered.
Carpe diem!
It truly is incredible that in the face of the most incompetent and inept govt labour are still behind in the polls and that is simply because they are red tories and want brexit as much as the tories. Jeremy Corbyn is a complete disgrace and the people around him must be tearing their hair out. He must ask for a second vote or he too will be wiped out along with the tories and we will end up with right wingers in EU parl and ukip at home,and both the tories and labour will be responsible for it.
Scotland must now save itself and become independent, and be one of the 12 small EU countries who are treated equally and listened to instead of ignored and treated with contempt in WM.
The CU is only way to save the Good Friday agreement and free movement of people is the only way to save Scotland – that labour is against free movement is incomprehensible (remember their mugs).
Some of the goodies in my stockpile will be passed their use by date in 6 months. Barstewards the lot of them!!
Anyone need any bog roll?
Clowns to the left of me
Jokers to the right
Here I am stuck on the middle with you.
Ruined Summer that,s ah very presumptive header for us Scots Rev you are aware we can get five seasons in a hour lol . Nothings changed until the final whistle blows or in England,s case Big Ben rings out the changes .
Oops, sorry drop a not!
Thoughts on a consultative* Scottish Referendum?
Q1. For Scotland to remain in the EU? Yes/No?
Q2. For Scotland to become an independent country? Yes/No?
Not legally binding (presumably can’t be blocked by Westminster and doesn’t require section 30) and would, at least, test the appetite for Brexit/indy since 2014.
A solid vote for for Remaining in EU / Independence would put the pressure back on Westminster. Will they overrule Scotland’s wishes again? And if Unionists don’t want to play, fuck ’em and proceed with haste.
* Will of the people and aw that
If I was depressed before then this has completely blown my mind, and my faith in the SNP – but who else is there to achieve the Independence goal?
Perhaps independence may not be in my lifetime after all, but I’ll keep voting for it and hope those pathetic Scots who cannot understand the issue may suddenly see the light – “Wha’s like us” ???
A blunder by Nicola Sturgeon? Letter to May.
link to archive.fo
Go easy on SNP : Nicola is right not to hold an indyref until it looks like it can be won. The consequences of losing a second independence referendum would kill the party off.
Right now brexit hasn’t happened. Lots of soft-no voters have head in sand that its all going to be ok : UK business as usual. Further delay just adds to the fallacy that brexit might not change very much…. However we all know there is a car crash coming once road runs out.
I am beginning to think that all the news agencies and their gazeboes outside parliament should just get up and go and for our TV news programmes just show a picture of a cute cat instead of any brexit news. Anything will be better than watching this calamity of a mess drag on any further.
Auld Bob will be after you for SNP bad, how dare you critisise Nicola Sturgeon on his personal Blog?
At last someone of Stuart’s stature has backed up what we have all been thinking for the last year. The SNP has gotten itself tangled in the Brexit Web, and doesn’t have a clue how to get out.
Nicola told Patrick Harvie in the SP over 2 months ago that any Brexit delay would not delay her plans. Further she said the plans would be a week or so away. Now there have been two delays and we have Stephen Gethins still banging on about a peoples vote this morning.
Personally I have nearly given up on the SNP doing anything.
If they think their job is to stop Brexit then they all need to resign. Their remit is Scottish independence.
I think you might be a bit too pessimistic about the value of the EP elections, but I fear you’re right.
We’re going to end up with a result something like:
Remain coalition(SNP, Change, Renew, LD, Greens, etc.): 33%
Leave coalition(Tory, UKIP, Brexit, etc.): 33%
Labour: 33%
And that really won’t help resolve things if Labour continues with a muddled Brexit policy. Still, there is a chance that Labour will mess its campaign up and blow off its vote as badly as the Tories will.
I pretty much take the opposite view from the Rev in most of the views expressed here. That shouldn’t be surprising as I’ve consistently given my points of view here.
I’ll elaborate a bit later as to the why, right now just waiting on May making her statement to the commons which looks like will it will be shortly. It is on now.
Have to agree with you Rev. Depressing.
She starts by congratulating the Met for arresting Assange.
Donald Trump tweeted the following – “Too bad that the European Union is being so tough on the United Kingdom and Brexit. The E.U. is likewise a brutal trading partner with the United States, which will change. Sometimes in life you have to let people breathe before it all comes back to bite you!”
It wouldn’t surprise me if the UK is deliberately putting in place extensions so that it can attempt to undermine the EU, as a precondition for post Brexit trade arrangements with the USA.
Trump would love to see the EU break up into single states. He would then pick them off one by one in disadvantageous trade deals.
Once perfidious, always perfidious Albion.
This has to be the most disheartening & depressing article I’ve ever read on this site, but it only reaffirms what I was already feeling after hearing the EU extended the date to 31st October.
In my opinion the turning point was when Joanna Cherry etal got the court ruling that we could revoke article 50 unilaterally, I get the SNP had to at least appear to try to keep the Uk in the EU but that was a step too far that was unnecessary we didn’t have to do that
Brexit… Brexit never changes. It continues to consume all hope, and all sensible reasoning and political credibility you would expect from those that would dream themselves our masters. Talk about a groundhog day vibe.
Ah well, good article mate. The SNP part was hard to read but very, very true. Sadly.
As usual another excellent piece by oor Stu.
Like so many others I am reaching the point of total frustration over the current workings of the S.N.P. I get it that they are apparently trying to play out every possible avenue but seriously they have been doing this for quite some time now and with Feartie’s pathetic antics getting even MORE pathetic by the day, if that is even possible, then surely they (S.N.P.) must surely step up to the plate and do what EVERYONE is demanding … call the referendum!
As far as Dumb and Dumber are concerned they are more than welcome to continue “talking” to each other about anything but at the end of the day WE all know what happens … Corbyn bumps his chops … Feartie “listens … Feartie tells Corbyn it’s her war or no way …talks end …AGAIN!
Not sure the SNP have been as inept as you make out Rev,
Looking at Nicola Sturgeon’s letter to the PM it seems to be the preamble to getting on with things.
It’s a set of reasonable demands that the PM will not agree to (particularly freedom of movement).
It will make it abundantly clear that Scotland has done everything possible to fix this mess but have been ignored. A perfect Causus Belli?
I agree, however, that it would have been much better to get the legal status sorted in advance. Enough effort was put into clarifying, for example, the right to withdraw article 50, why not this?
I really cannot understand why this hasn’t been done.
If the SNP don’t get on with it now then I agree with you completely.
I can’t imagine how a sauropod must have felt, being stuck in a tar pit some 200 million years ago, sinking a little day by day to what was guaranteed to be an unpleasant end, but having read Stu’s summary above, I’m feeling remarkably close to it.
All too plausible unfortunately. However the Norway option might turn out to be such a bad outcome for Scotland.
1. It would appease (in the short term) the East coast Fisherman who’s greedy self interest leads them to think they’ll all be even richer
2. It will then totally piss-off the aforesaid greedy bastards when they see their fisheries traded away for the benefit of the City of London, just like the last time.
3. As soon as the rural communities see their generous grants from the EU, for infrastructure projects and farming subsidies, removed and not replaced, they too will be furious.
Meanwhile, free movement will continue to support the Scottish economy and at least mitigate some of the effects of Brexit. In the medium term the population of Scotland who resist independence will, slowly but surely, come to realise that there’s only one way forward.
The status of what the UK ‘union’ is needs to be made cystal clear. If only one side can call a legal referendum, then it’s not a union. Get that point across and addressed, because without it, then you can forget about having the authority to hold another one.
Options for the UK government in the event that the 2014 vote had been yes can be seen here –
link to parliament.uk
Depressingly brilliant and brilliantly depressing.
It throws a rather large moggy into the flock of ‘steady as she goes, SNP can do no wrong’ flock of pigeons though.
Lenny Hartley says “Auld Bob will be after you for SNP bad,…..”
I’m not too concerned about what Mr Peffers has to say on the matter, but I do feel the Rev’s views on SNP competency may have an effect on membership ( and, thus, contributions to SNP).
It may also have an effect on any imminent Wings crowdfunding, as, I believe, many on here ( and the thousands of readers) are inclined to support the SNP and may take such criticism in a negative manner. But only time will answer these doubts, I suppose.
Surely Sturgeon must try and call a indyref soon, and not wait until we find out what’s happening with Brexit at the end of the year.
She’ll never get a better chance than this to set Scotland free of Westminster.
As Patrick Harvey said If not now when. Would the electorate in Scotland forgive the SNP if she left it too late?
How to use apathy to kill the soul:
Once again Stu’s piece has shown the very essence of the reason for Scotland to be Independent so that we don’t have to wait weeks and months and years for the English voter and their parliament to decide Scotlands fate good or bad
All that’s happened here is that England has decided to tell Scotland to have a holiday because they’re going to have one, while Scotland sits and waits and stagnates from lack of business investment because nobody will want to invest in a country that isn’t doing anything and all the people who were preparing for something happening have just spent a load of money they’ll not get back anytime soon
The reasons for Scottish Independence have multiplied due to the inaction once again of Englands broken parliamentary system and the two party conglomerate contained within it who both want the same thing but don’t want to tell the voters in case they move their votes elsewhere
Whether people will see what to me is glaringly obvious is another thing because as we know the Scottish public at large is a lazy creature and because of centuries of subjugation are afraid to do anything for themselves because for bad or good (usually bad) England has removed the responsibilty of Scotland being responsible for themselves and they might get it wrong and so be blamed, and nobody wants to take the blame, so the stupidity continues
I’ll take bets on Alex Salmond being exhonorated in the next five minutes now that the crisis has passed and we can all settle down to grumbling about the missed opportunities that the current FM has squandered (or has she?)
Now will be the time for Unionists to grubbily find a way to spin this as a victory for common sense and for the SNP to spin it as, well I really don’t know what, except maybe a victory for treading water the longest
But yet again we have to wait and see how much apathy we’re prepared to swallow and digest before we all F…..g die of it
Nicola Sturgeon can not in her right mind go through the next party conference keeping Scotland in the English waiting room being constantly told to wait only to be replaced by some next new English event and the next after that, a Royal baby Cooeee, or a Royal death Aw sad big funeral
Folk won’t wear it and why should they, promises have been made, mandates secured, we did our part boss, and we’ll still do our part but you must do yours, we love you to bits FM but it’s the job we gave you
ANOTHER SIX MONTHS – HELLISH.
Thanks, Stu. That really needed to be said in public. Well done!
In 2014, the Yes movement, including the SNP, didn’t really know a) what it was going to take, and b) if we had the political capability to accomplish independence.
Have we moved forward?
Perhaps we all thought it would be a dawdle – a campaign and a vote, then freedom.
Now we know it has been and still will be much harder, and with that after nearly 3 years, comes the pressure to find someone to blame. We Scots are good at that.
One thing’s for sure, we are all going to have to relearn living with disappointment, especially with our leading MSPs. They’ve made mistakes, but haven’t we all. And we don’t have a list of ready and capable replacements – though I do wish Stu was an MP or MSP.
But here we are, a lot wiser but still with more to learn. particularly about ourselves, about our legal relationship with the Kingdom of England, but also about Perfidious Albion, about whom too many Scots are still either naive or gullible.
But we are where we are, and right now I continue to think of all those, including of course those among my own family and friends, who died without seeing Independence. We who remain are privileged to still have the hope of seeing an independent Scotland – even if we make it hard for ourselves by doing it less than perfectly.
England is going to have to leave the Union if they want out of the EU
I’m hoping the SNP are positioning themselves as having done everything within reason to persuade the UK to abandon Brexit so as to show beyond reasonable doubt that the intent is that Scotland is dragged out of the EU against it’s will.
I said reasonable because it a certainty that some on the unionist side will pipe up that it isn’t so.
Also, a Peoples Vote will never take place unless it’s a multi optional one with Scottish independence as an option. There’s no way England will accept the UK remaining in the EU if that was swung by Scotland’s votes. Even more so if we then go on to have indyref2 afterwards. Time to move on from that and pull the trigger on our own exit strategy.
Thing is. I was against the peoples vote from the start for a few reasons.
1 – It set a precedent that any future narrow referendum result could be challenged and overturned. Indy ref 2.
2 – Scotland voted remain by 62% , did that first vote not matter unless the ROUK agreed.
3- As bad as Brexit is. England and Wales voted for it. So they should have it, that’s democracy.
Agree with much of that, Stuart. But I don’t agree that BINO would scupper our chances of independence.
In that situation, we’d still have been hooked out of the EU against our will, we’d be in a strange limbo land that pleases no-one and arguably is the worst of all worlds, as you say. England would be continuing its ongoing, intractable debate as to whether to stay in that limbo, go for Full English Brexit or go back into full EU – dominating the political discourse of the whole UK. That’s not a particularly good backdrop for a Pro-Union campaign..
And rUK being in single market would kill their one remaining argument – about ‘putting up borders with our biggest market’ yada yada.
So all in all, I think that’s a vary winnable scenario for us…
The “problem”is that Scotland voted to remain so the SNP have to fight to remain.
Yes, a NO deal Brexit will boost support for independence but, I have argued elsewhere that cancellation of Brexit offers an opportunity too
link to hubpages.com
All we need to do is constantly gloat to the English we prevented Brexit and, if say BOJO becomes PM, they are almost sure to throw us out.
Donald Tusk said “use the time wisely”. So what’s the first thing Westminster does? They all go home and take a 10 day break for Easter.
“Ah” they say “but MPs are exhausted they’ve been doing 12 – 14 hour days for months” (remember they normally spend 4 days a week in parliament). Well Boo fuckin Hoo. That’s half a weeks work for most doctors, nurses, police etc… and you don’t see them having subsidised bars and restaurants to spend half their day in.
Stu is right, the legality of a Hollyrood sponsored referendum should have been explored when May said “now’s not the time”. That’s 2 years the SNP have wasted on the fantasy that Westminster will play by the rules. It won’t, it never has and it never will. Our independence is there for the taking stop fannying about and get on with it.
The English are past saving. Leave them to their closed, xenophobic, racist and absurd vision of empire and tax free economy. They deserve everything they get, don’t let them drag us down with them.
Too much negativity about the SNP above. You all need to say 10 Hail Nicolas every hour on the hour.
She’s got a plan you know and we just have to trust her. The fact that many of us are b*ggered if we know what it is is neither here nor there.
I looked up Nicola’s sleeve Dave. There was nothing there that we hadn’t seen already!
Stu, please write an optimistic piece soon as I’m now in the depths of despair because everything you say here has the ring of truth.
Personally, I think a General Election will occur, if for no other reason than ultimately if Westminster cannot find a resolution then the people might.
If their were a General Election then we might see Theresa replaced by a Boris standing on a No deal Brexit and he would sweep all England before him.
This might be Scotland’s best route to Independence.
Is Derek McInnes advising Nicola (football analogy)? It’s doubly depressing when both your teams are managed by fearties.
SNP Spring Conference 27th – 28th April. Nicola will probably have something to say at in her conference speech. Be surprised if not.
Thanks goodness for that. A superlative article written by an influential blogger.
I disagree with loads of it, but if it hadn’t been published I’d probably have had to fake up an ID, publish a blog with similar, and overnight get about 1 million followers, including most if not all of the SNP.
Keep the pressure on, people. You don’t win a referendum unless you actually hold the damn thing.
Indy Ref 2 date – 190919
I don’t know about anyone else, but I’m brexited out….I’ve stopped watching the news simply because there is no news…Same old same old day in day out….I wonder how much Ms Kunsenberg et al are getting in overtime payments…..They seem to be the only ones benefiting from this continuing shambles…I’m an old git, but if I was younger I’d be escaping from this madhouse first chance I got……I’ve told my children to emigrate first chance they get too….
Gloves off, lets stop playing at being the nice guy please.
Had a discussion on Twitter today where I called for SNP and Nicola and Co to pivot from “Oh Brexits Bad Mmkayy” to attacking Mundell, Davidson, Leonard, Corbyn and anyone else at Westminster. I was told “Patience needed!”
Deary me.
The Mandate being won an the “major event” criteria is now at breaking point and regardless of Brexit Outcome in October ( and beyond)..we still wish to leave the UK.
We need to use our star players to get on the attack. Get blaming folk, start highlighting disasters in UK, pensions paid etc, start calling for heads repeatedly!, get on the offensive and in fact be offensive to Unionsits…the time for playing diplomat is well over, we tried to help them, now time to look inward and concentrate on our own needs and wants as we are currently doing ourselves harm.
Strategists may wish to look at the successful political arguers of last few years…Farage, Davidson, Foster…all vile minded but attack minded strategists that stood their own ground and got results, regardless of how lowly we value them.
BREAKING
Kensington Palace says the Duke and Duchess of Sussex have taken “a personal decision” to keep the plans around the arrival of their baby private.
This is massive folks put’s everything in perspective right ?
The old formula, delay, confuse, divide and rule. And the SNP are sleepwalking into it.
Sadly
I think Sturgeon’s letter was absolutely correct, an essential demarcation letter, and an effective end to the previous phase.
If May caves in, there are advantages. The chances of May caving in are about the same as me winning the lottery on Friday and I haven’t even bought a ticket.
Sums up my thoughts exactly.
An alternative strategy for Nicola would be to appojnt a Cabinet Secretary for Independence and start preparing government and country for it.
This would involve actiung as if we are already independent by taking control of raising all public funding through existing powers and driving a wedge between us and rUK.
She who has the financial control controls the poltical landscape as the people will vote for what they have and will not accept a threat from Westminster to take back money in people’s pockets.
Unbelievably some of our MPs think that we can achieve Indeopendence without undermining the UK. Some don’t want to as they don’t want to see our kith and kin south if the Border econmically disadvantaged.
I’ve heard both arguments in conversation with some SNP MPs.
There is not one reserved power which the Scottish government cannot effectively change, mitigate and/or improve by devolved legislation or influence over industry and civil society. It just has to think a bit more imaginatively to do so.
RUK will be in such a mess that a maelstrom of such intiatives will have Westminster ina spin and we can have de facto independence. We must take financial control to achieve the desired result. If we dont need to draw from HMRC money then we are in position of power. At present we are not so are hopelessly disadvantaged.
R Davidson may be FM after all.
“Go easy on SNP : Nicola is right not to hold an indyref until it looks like it can be won. The consequences of losing a second independence referendum would kill the party off.”
What does that have to do with establishing the RIGHT to hold a referendum? What if we get to 60% in the polls but we don’t have the power to have the vote?
“Is Derek McInnes advising Nicola (football analogy)? It’s doubly depressing when both your teams are managed by fearties.”
To be fair that’s harsh on McInnes. We haven’t shat it against the Ugly Sisters this year like we did last year, we’ve only lost once to the Huns and hoofed them out of both cups, and we’ve at least put up a fight against a Celtic team that’s simply far better than ours.
I think the SNP should follow Craig Murray’s advice. Scottish MPs should withdraw from the English government of the UK, unite with the Scottish parliament, revoke the Treaty and the Act of Union, hold a corroboratory referendum, appeal to the EU and the UN for recognition as an independent state, negotiate as an independent state with the English government (it will not be a rUK government because with the revoking of the Treaty and the Act there will not longer be a UK) for the just sharing of the assets of the former UK, and our share, if any, of its debts.
link to craigmurray.org.uk
Kensington Palace says the Duke and Duchess of Sussex have taken “a personal decision” to keep the plans around the arrival of their baby private.
She’s going to try to hold it in for six months…
johnj @ 13:45,
If there’s anything we’ve learnt after all this dancing around, both within the HoC and without, it’s that there’s no appeasing the serious Leavers. They’re in the grip of a full-on group psychosis. Which we likely haven’t even seen the full development of yet. We need to get over trying to win any support from them.
The mooted “compromise” is too wishy-washy for everyone else.
Finding the least common denominator is not a viable strategy here. Somebody needs to quit trying to triangulate out of this muddle, stand up for what they actually believe in, and fight for it. We are getting increasingly antsy about it now, but I still believe that “somebody” will be the SNP.
(BTW, judging by the direction of your argument, you surely left out a “not” in your first sentence.)
sassenach @1346 i have been a memberv of the SNP on and off (Mostly on) for over forty years and what the Rev said about the SNP Leadership in my opinion is spot on.
His views will certainly not have an effect on my contribution or for that matter folk who are SNP Members whom I have spoken to this afternoon to any future WOS fundraiser.
Anyways, Sturgeon’s letter is aimed at the unionists and has struck the right chord with one unionist poster. Doesn’t want it used for “constitutional” purposes, but wants her to extract economic advantages. I’ll put hin down as an “undecided”.
Halfway there 🙂
I have been saying for yonks now that we should have had our legal position to carry out a referendum clarified for yonks . Absolutely no excuse for it not being so ,now we are in the grey area once again not knowing if there is another outlet that lets us call a referendum with a legal backing to it.The only other avenue we have is to harass MAY or whoever and try and get enough of the public behind us to force a Referendum. We could fight it on the basis that with or without Brexit Scotland must leave the UK. simply because of the shambles that will most certainly follow in England one way or another. If we stay in there will be pandemonium for certain with the Brexiteers going absolute crazy and without doubt social unrest will follow. If on the other hand we leave under any deal Scotland WILL suffer economically without a doubt.
If we did take this route then we could make a case for independence by showing Scotland will lose either way. I am sure the case could be put over in a more professional light, but you get the Gist,otherwise then we are all screwed.
What I find depressing is the SNP are proving to be more adept & enthusiastic at kicking the can down the road than anyone else.
I’m not sure that they understand what will happen if they let the (multiple) mandate slide. People won’t “defect to Labour” or vote green, they just won’t bother voting. That’ll be enough to lose power and a majority for indyref2 in ScotParl.
There’s an old saying worth repeating here :
Fool me once, shame on you;
Fool me twice, shame on me.
The mandate is there. There is zero indication that anything other than Brexit will occur. The English establishment is a laughing stock second only to Trumpian USA. Unlike Trumpian USA England is going to remain a laughing stock – and utterly untrusted – for the next 50 years.
What more is required to trigger something more than a pointless (unreported for the majority of people) interjection in the HoC? Nobody is listening anymore.
Also quite what Nicola Sturgeon thought she was doing on a platform in London telling the English people they shouldn’t respect the (Leave) result in England but should respect the (Remain) result in Scotland is beyond me.
Frankly I think its not just the tories who need a new leader. I no longer believe the SNP will deliver any form of plebiscite – and follow it through – under the current leadership. They’re all far too comfortable after nearly 13 years of govt 🙁
I’d very much like to be wrong.
Lenny Hartley
I sincerely hope you are correct! Time alone will tell.
The issue is the validity of Brexit when one half of the union voted to stay in and the other voted out. The Queen swore an oath to both crownsm Scotland first as it is the senior, then that of the kingdom of England. Her Scottish crown can be removed if she fails to uphold the sovereignty of the Scottish people and breaches that oath. The Scottish Government should write to the Queen demanding that she upholds her oath to the crown of Scotland or is forfeit of it.
The UK will not be leaving the EU. Ever.
The political establishment at WM know full well the consequences if Brexit ever became a reality. It would end not just the UK’s EU membership but the UK Union itself, leaving England to make it’s own way in the world, isolated from its nearest neighbours (of its own doing).
What, imo, we are seeing is May slowly, slowly stretching things out; kicking the can ever further down the road in order to dissipate the anger of the hardcore Brexiteers. She can’t just say, “Brexit’s Cancelled” because she can’t and if she did, all hell and fury would break loose in England. But, nevertheless, I am convinced that is where we’re going – we’re staying in. After long enough the numbskull Brexiteers will totally forget that they ever voted to leave in the first place. Just keep kicking the can until they all forget what the hell the whole thing’s about.
And then, one Tuesday afternoon when some major incident occurs and is all over the news, some Minister will quietly announce that Brexit has been cancelled and no one will even bother to raise an eyebrow by then.
As for the SNP – forget Brexit. Independence support has been growing organically in Scotland for years and has accelerated in the last few years. Let’s concentrate on growing that Indy support and getting it into the 55%+ on a regular basis in the polls and then, with that majority support secured, call IndyRef2. That is, after all, the MAIN trigger the ScotGov has set for holding an IndyRef. Brexit was only ever going to muddy the waters. Put it aside and let’s concentrate on why ScotIndy is the best future for Scotland. Cuz it is!
Wellington at Waterloo about his army:”I don’t know what effect these men will have upon the enemy, but by God, they frighten me”
Thus we are frightened by SNP’s evasive near-silence, but it’s necessary to confuse the other side.
We know that a multi-stage conditional policy can be declared – see Joanna Cherry’s brilliant Motion that, with Labour support would have become law and steered UK to Revocation.
But per Napoleon: “Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake”
Ireland will have a Re-unification referendum real soon, that will be the time for us.
“the EU appears to think it’d be better (or possibly just hilarious) to put us through a humiliating and idiotic round of EU elections ”
Don’t quite agree with you there, Stu.
It does Scotland no harm at all to maintain a presence with our own elected MEPs.
It is not Scotland which has shat the bed in Europe.
Dr Doom @1.46pm
Yes we know – the independence movement is doomed. Scotland is doomed. Give it a rest with the negative depressing posts Dr Doom.
Have we forgotten the opportunities the unexpected EU elections might offer?
“the people will decide when”
While I believe we Don’t need permission to decide our own fate in Scotland , I can understand why pushing May for a second vote on the EU would be strategically sound .
If she concedes a second EU vote , it becomes even more difficult to refuse a second Indy vote – so a ‘legal’ vote would be granted with no one able to boycott it saying it was ”unconstitutional ” .
7. THE SNP HAS NO IDEA WHAT IT’S DOING
To be brutally frank, readers, it’s this site’s opinion that the SNP’s current position on Brexit – in favour of a “People’s Vote”,
Oh dear, Stu you are in a low way. SNP Baaad from Wings ??
Of course every true blue blooded Englishman (and woman) knows the entire Brexit fracas is all Nicola Sturgeon’s doing. She has personally masterminded the entire clusterfuck from persuading David Cameron to hold the referendum in the first place, to skewing the leadership vote for the Feckless May, to voter manipulation to produce a hung parliament and bribe the DUP to create a majority. Nicola’s SNP is the power behind the English establishment throne. Who would have guessed ?
I wonder why she might have been doing this ???? Just to make herself and the SNP look competent by comparison ? If so it was a masterful plan. Because she’s got me fooled.
Nicola was always intuitive about making the right decisions.
Can anybody tell me if Peter Mundesley is affecting that natural ability. It seems since they married she has become much more ,how shall I say”reserved”, timid even.
It is not the job of the SNP to look after the rest of the UK.
We voted to put them in power to look after Scotland first and last. Too conciliatory by half nowadays. I understand why they are doing it,but it does not really suit their membership
Sorry Mundell. Damn predicta fuffle.
Yeah, Rev. It’s pretty much as you say.
Time to pull the trigger has to be pretty soon.
This is where the SNP gets to when it stops leading and starts following. Despite lots of talk, they have been slavishly following London since 2016.
If you do not lead and set YOUR agenda, but instead wait for others, you lose control.
And, btw, can the SNP please stop with the ‘single market and customs union ‘compromise. They have ZERO mandate for such an approach. It was fine to try it briefly just after the referendum, but for heavens sake, sniff the freaking coffee folks, London does not give a flying f*** about the compromise.
Oh, and also btw, you do not commence negotations by offering your compromise position up-front. Doing so only ensures that what you will achieve will be LESS than your ‘compromise’offer. This is really basic stuff.
What has happened to the SNP:
“The Ship of Theseus is a paradoxical object – imagine a ship that, over time, has all its parts replaced – planks, sails, ballast etc. Once everything has been replaced, the question arises – is it still the same ship”.
In other words the SNP in it’s attempt to be mainstream. Has completely forgotten it’s purpose. This is not the same SNP it was pre- 2015. They are attempting to be seen as a party of the mainstream UK politics. They are attempting to influence and change the UK structures and parliament.
Their original purpose was to free Scotland of Westminster rule, not to try and establish themselves in it’s corridors of power. The sea change was 2015. They won all but 3 seats and then nothing happened.
They thought they could influence Westminster. That change in thought process, in part led to them losing so many seats in 2016. This narrative has continued to this day , and all through the last 3 years.
Westminster is a numbers game that the SNP can never win. 2015 proved that! They are a minority party in the field of UK politics. Their power resides in Scotland, and they need to be reminded of that.
They need to start acting entirely for Scotland, and allow England to devour itself.
Mr Campbell, you’ve blocked me on twitter for reasons I can’t fathom. Perhaps I was stupid, but I certainly wasn’t rude or insulting to you, what with me being a great believer in civil discourse. None the less, this is an excellent and insightful article, so credit where credit’s due.
Well if the Sewel convention being proved worthless, the repatriation of devolved powers to Westminster, the abundant proof that the union of equals is no more than double speak to fleece Scotland of its resources, making MP’s from Scotland inferior to MP’s from England.
If these are not material changes in circumstances then what is, there is more to this than just Brexit in my opinion.
Every time the May can is kicked down the road, this time by the EU, the FM has kicked hers.
Her letter contains four elements which will not even be considered :-
Single Market for Scotland
Freedom of Movement to and from Scotland
Widening by a mile the agencies involved in talks and
A second referendum.
I hope the can kicking, necessary as it has been, will now stop.These have to be the FM’s red lines. Non-negotiable whenever Brexit happens. October will be the final chapter for the EU, of that I have no doubt and there will be an agreement. No deal is a huge threat to the Irish economy and the EU will stand by Ireland as an EU member.
Ergo what to do. We return to first principles. She has a mandate. She has a timescale. Most of all she has an army. Best not to overthink this and react to every nuance emanating from Westminster.
I hope this letter containing, as it does, everything that May hates is the FM’s final bluff. It will be laughed at, we know this. She knows this. So why send it?
The FM has a speech to make in two weeks. I believe it will be the most important of her life. Setting the scene in this way demands a powerful and overwhelming response.
*To Colin Dunn whose hurt I read on the Rev’s twitter today. Snap. However hold on and Never Let The B******s Get You Down. Thanks for all you do and Youtube Kris Kristofferson singing it.
God, you express a wee bit of hurryupness to our FM and the trolls scream in from every direction claiming Independence is over and the FM conned us all, Ooh see how bad the SNP are
Thanks trolls I actually feel much better now, because if there’s one thing that’s consistent in this life is if YES is winning the trolls hate it like crazy, but what they don’t get is the more you talk about the SNP the more everybody else does as well
It’s like perpetual motion, and I should know because I’m one of them, one of them, one of them, oh yes, and repeat
Big Jock at 350pm,
Totally agree. I often watch the HoC, and I am forever seeing SNP MP’s stand up to talk, and whilst doing so, mention in passing how chummy they are with x, y, or z person in the Tories or Labour down south. I’m sure I saw on say he was good friends with Paul Sweeney the other day. It is no good.
The job of the SNP is to get us out of Westminster, not to get drawn further and further in to its chicanery and nonsense.
Only Angus McNeil seems to talk sense these days.
How is it that so many supporters of Independence are so keen to throw brickbats in the direction of the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon?
Are you holding them responsible for the clusterfuck that is Brexit. There’s only one thing that matters what it comes to a second vote and that is winning the vote. The SNP IMO have played this entirely correctly.
It is the Tories and Labour MP’s and members who are in total disarray over Brexit. That UK is imploding and there will be another referendum. You’ll have an announcement soon for sure, I think it’s worth waiting for that.
Some early thoughts on this article for now.
THERESA MAY IS STILL THE PRIME MINISTER
Well she is a “dead PM walking” I don’t think many would disagree with that. The chances of her stepping down?
Here I totally agree with the Rev and there is no chance of her going voluntarily and even “men in suits” would likely fail in forcing her out.
The Tories themselves have used up their vote of no confidence in her as leader and so don’t get another chance before Dec of this year, so that’s another dead end.
What we do know though is that a large number of her own MP’s do want rid of her and have already started submitting letters to the 1922 committee. Some of them like Bill Cash, Mark Francois and other hardline Brexiteers would consider supporting Labour in a vote of no confidence against the government.
That looks like the only possible route to getting rid of May and Labour might be tempted to try, after all there is nothing to lose. When the Tories take a hammering at the council elections in England and the EU election the clamour for May’s head will grow. Corbyn need only wait until the end of May (hehe) before striking for maximum effect.
THE EU IS SPINELESS
Yes they are, but that has been apparent all the way through this process, they as much as the majority of parliament MP’s wish to avoid a no deal and will go to great lengths to help prevent such an outcome. Their patience is not unlimited and it will eventually come to end.
For now though, their hope is that the UK will go for the softest of Brexits, meaning CU and SM membership. If not that, then even better is to have another referendum and so the EU are giving them every chance to do so.
I think yesterdays decision to extend Article 50 only until 31st Oct was a mistake. I’m of the opinion that they should have forced May to accept as long an extension as possible, such as Dec 2020. May being forced to accept that was likely to have seen her government fall and resulted in a general election. This shorter delay makes that less likely but not impossible.
JEREMY CORBYN STILL WANTS BREXIT
Corbyn could not have been in charge of Labour at a more opportune time in which to get rid of the Tory party from government but has totally fucked it up with his support of Brexit. He’s the worst leader they could possibly have had since the EU vote in 2016 and I doubt he’ll be in charge for much longer unless he wins a general election very soon.
A general election is something he very much wants, I think he wants that even more than Brexit, the polls are staring to turn after years of the Tories having a clear lead and the two most recent give Labour a lead for Westminster elections.
link to twitter.com
link to twitter.com
There’s a very good chance that if May brings back her “meaningful vote” for a 4th time and loses coupled with poor results for the Tories in council and EU elections that he tables another vote of no confidence. No one can say that this would be winnable but it will certainly have more chance this time than the last time.
This doesn’t resolve Brexit of but course might help Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP more quickly make a decision on where to go from now regarding an Independence referendum.
Can we forget about whether the Scottish Parliament has the ability to organise a referendum or not. We returned a majority in Westminster so they should be made to fund the thing. We’ll organise it of course! I do agree that that the time for diplomacy is over. We have tried our best but now is the time to grab the bull by the horns. I feel like we’re being drawn into arguments they want us to have again and that didn’t work out well for us the last time. We fit every description of a colonised country with Westminster assuming itself our overlords without any chance to challenge them. Looks like make or break time. No more wasting time. The other option doesn’t bare thinking about. It’ll be Thatchers children destroying Scotland this time round if we let them and there will be no NHS when we finally break away, there will be nothing left.
Methinks the Rev,s above assessment is his intention to give some of the posters & lurkers on here a kick up the ass.
Been too many pessimists on here lately having the effect of causing lethargy & doubt.
Brighten up, some of you.
Thepnr,
I understand your loyalty to the SNP, however, do you not think that blind faith could lead to complacency. I’m not suggesting by NS, but by some of the MP’s and MSP’s.
I didn’t predict brexit getting postponed, but here’s the thing, even if the withdrawal deal had gone through, we would then immediately have endless confusion over trade deals, trading regulations, border controls and so on and so on.
Their will never be a ‘perfect time’. Politics is just not like that. It really, really isn’t.
I think it’s time to GTF out of the U.K. to somewhere with nicer weather.
Brittany looks good.
No faith any more in the SNP being able to do what our people needed them to do and I refuse to live in this fucked-up limbo any longer.
Anybody know if they’re looking for bus drivers in Brittany?
@Dr Jim 3.56
Maybe they are not trolls?
Maybe they have been reluctant to say anything and unable to express their frustration on this site because of the forced narrative BTL.
The SNP are the conduit for Independence, but without being encouraged to act they risk Independence and the SNP being consigned to another 20 years in the wilderness.
Here’s a scary thought.
Maybe the reason why the constitutional side has not been clarified publicly –
On whether we can revoke article 50, dissolve the union etc –
Is because it has been clarified privately.
And we can’t.
Just maybe it’s indyref2 or nothing.
Hence the wait for Brexit clarification.
Just a scary thought that would explain a lot.
Well, that’s another fine mess we find ourselves in.
I think the tone from Mr Blackford in the failed parliament and the content of Ms Sturgeon’s letters are pointing towards one thing alone, that is the announcement of indy ref2 during her leader’s speech at SNP Spring Conference. The SNP can then fight the Euro election as the only party with any legitimacy to do so representing the current considered will of the people of Scotland – 62% EU remain and then shift its campaign organisation to push for a yes vote in early October 2019. The issue of the legitimacy of said referendum is moot given the UK Parliament refused a petition on Scottish Independence as it was “outside the UK Parliament’s remit”.
Lord Cooper in his commentary on McCormack vs the Lord Advocate (1953) pointed out at some point in the future the fudge around the purely English Law concept of the “crown in parliament” with respect to Scotland’s constitutional right of the consideted will of the people of Scotland would fail at which point the UK Parliamentary Union would be ended.
I believe this is where we are now via EVEL and Brexit the unwritten British Constitution is going through the shredder as I write.
@Robert Louis
“I understand your loyalty to the SNP”
You really couldn’t have gotten me more wrong, I have no loyalty whatsoever to the SNP. I did join them last year after the attacks on Alex Salmond in order to show some support and help in a small way with my contribution.
My loyalty is 100% towards Scotland regaining Independence and in my view the best vehicle to actually enable us to WIN a 2nd referendum is the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon.
Please do not then misplace a strong desire for and a loyalty to gaining our Independence as a misguided support or loyalty to the SNP. It is NOT.
We all need to ask ourselves a simple question and that is how best can we achieve Independence? I’d suggest that it will be won by sticking together and not fragmenting support because of disagreements over timing due to Brexit. A mess created by other politicians and one that should be exploited.
Maybe we should be looking at maximising Independence support in May’s EU elections? Maybe a better use of our time than griping at the SNP I’d have thought.
@Vestas
“ People won’t “defect to Labour” or vote green, they just won’t bother voting. That’ll be enough to lose power and a majority for indyref2 in ScotParl.”
Well, Green voters will stop “lending their votes” to the SNP, there’s already signs for that. The Greens whatever people say, have been constant FOR Indy since the EU Ref, and before. And though I’m not Green, if the SNP betray the mandates, multiple mandates, they have, I’d vote Green for Holyrood or any new party that made Independence its prime policy. The SNP would have proven themselves to be untrustworthy.
“I’d very much like to be wrong”
But it hasn’t happened yet Vestas, and here’s where I disagree with the article. With the benefit of all hindsight, if I was Sturgeon I wouldn’t have done anything differently from the way she – and MPs – have handled it so far, even including her letter this morning to May – and the SNP MPs still going for the PV, which is unlikely to happen..
Having said that – I hope you’re proven wrong too!
The minute anyone criticises the SNP. There is always at least one person who labels them as trolls. I have been a member of the SNP for 30 years!
Whilst I respect Nicola Sturgeon. I also have the ability to research and think for myself. In my opinion she has messed this up. Her strategy can be proven to be wrong. There is factual evidence.
She announced indy ref two 3 years ago. We are not one step closer to achieving that. That is a failure of strategy.
We should never be blinded by our leaders. That’s what happened to Labour with Tony Blair. Whilst he danced on the head of a pin. The Labour party was stripped and became Tory Light.
I completely understand the :”Lets stick together argument”. However if following your leader off a cliff just to show unity is the strategy ,then fuck that!
I was speaking to an elected SNP person this week. “How do you fancy trying to sell the GCR on the door-step”, I asked, “if it’s carried at Conference?” The poor soul turned away and shook her head reflectively – we’ll have to wait and see, she finally replied.
Time for the membership to assert its will – it’s only possible to commit political suicide once.
who here was voting snp 20 years ago?
where would we be now if u had been?
Dr jim 1.49pm ” because the Scottish public at large is a lazy creature “. Yup, they only seem to be interested in coronation st, eastenders, x factor Bgt, or whats reduced at JD sports.
Thenpr @1539 . Maybe long time SNP members are getting pissed off with Nicola Sturgeon kicking the can down the road as much as May. All she had to say is a decision on Indyref2 will be when their is clarity on Brexit without the I will give an update in two weeks every month or so.
Regarding opinion polls, I see one is a newbie so you can disregard that one for starters. The other poll shows both Tory and Labour support falling with the tories losing a large chunk to either UKiP or the Brexit party,may has said she will not be leader for another election, the favourites for suceeding her are raving brexiteers, so they will get that ten percent back and more. Dont you listen to what he Rev has taught us over the years, with a very low personal rating Corbyn will not become PM he is 9% behind may ffs.
Jockmcx , i have been voting SNP in every election since the 1979 Referendum . I have been through countless ups and downs, all the false dawns, if due to incompetence this is another one, im out of here.
I’m enjoying this thread, definitely needed with the constant boring and counter-productive “SNPBAAAAD” knee-jerks whenever someone expresses a contrary opinion. Well GET OVER IT, the owner of the blog has just done the same.
Anyways, “2. THE EU IS SPINELESS”
Don’t agree. The EU’s prime responsibility is the EU, and if the UK does leave, that’s the EU-27. But it does have some responsibility for an ex-memeber, as much as anything else, it would be very bad publicity if it was indeed spiteful as the far right media protests. So it has to be seen to be fair and reasonable, and prepared to make accomodation for a Leaving state.
But on top of that, would anyone really want to be a member of the EU if it didn’t have regard for human rights, and that’s the 66 million in the UK who are led and opposed by two parties of donkeys. We are still EU citizens, and until we’re not it has a duty of care to us.
Having said that. I’m with Macron who reluctantly compromised on Oct 31 before the Commission sits for the first time in the new term. The rest were really going too far with mercifulness and pity for a country descending into a state of parliamentary anarchy.
@Slver Darling
I should have made myself clearer, I meant trolls all over the internet and not just confined to WOS, probably because I’d just been reading the FMs Twitter Troll gang
Even from some of the posters here we can ALL feel that the subjugation , demoralising, denigration has had a brainwashing jockhome effect . Scots are canny people and I HATE to agree with ANYTHING massey says but they are a cautious small c conservative nation . They weigh up the advantages and disadvantages of each situation , and can sometimes delay to the extent of avoidance
Nicola has played a very cautious thoughtful game , she has allowed the english exceptionalism to run rampant , she has proven immeasurably the total and utter contempt that wastemonster has for ANYTHING Scottish , she has attempted to educate and enlighten english voters to the self inflicted harm they are bringing down on themselves , ALL to no avail .
She has done all this whilst running a successful government , engaging enthusiastically with other world leaders and countries to show Scotland the nation , all whilst trying to convince some of her doubting citizens of the need to be in control of our country , attempting to placate and instill patience to the citizens who already believe and know that Scotland is a beautiful successful country
But Nicola the time for prevarication has gone , if the people who were undecided still cannot see the incompetence and imbecillic actions of the unionist parties in wastemonster they will never see it , meanwhile YOUR supporters and voters are being subjected to ever more stupidity and uncertainty and grow increasingly concerned that we will never be free from these incompetent wasters .
You have tried in every way possible to save these clowns from themselves you have tried every avenue , they are not and will not listen .
You now have to save your country and it’s people , call our ministers back from wastemonster , convene a meeting of ALL Scottish parliamentarians and take a vote on dissolving the treaty of union , to be followed by a confirmatory referendum run by the SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT
“… off of.”
Why not just “… off”?
Lets mot forget what happened last time a referendum was mooted by the SNP. They were on a high, 56 seats in Weatminster and looking good.
The Tory party played a blinder. Let’s be perfectly Frank here. They played to the “Blue Vote” – the well off and the retired, who put their own interests before their kids and grandkids and the Billy Boys vote.
Their dark money plus their own private polling in the North East made them confident enough to promise May a good number of seats in Scotland – aided and abetted by Labour and the Lib Dems all 3 parties colluded to only campaign those seats they thought they could win.
And if it wasn’t for those pesky corbynite kids down south she damn well would have achieved her majority. Have no doubt that the yoon parties will do so again, and again, and again……..
Their sole purpose is to hold on to the cash cow that is Scotland, no matter what it takes. I honestly believe that if it came down to the choice of Scottish independence or no Brexit then Brexit would be grudgingly cancelled.
The demographics say later is better. It always was
Brexit (if it happens) remains largely irrelevant to Scottish Independence. It’s breaking trust in the UK in a few : good.
If it happens the fact we are out of the EU on Independence loses all traction. That’s about it.
The latest date for a referendum Bill to be introduced to squeeze a vote in is this autumn.
I remain of the view that the 2022 General Election will be the decision point. Everything else is froth.
Can see the merit in bringing a referendum forward but one it’s obvious Holyrood doesn’t have the power
Do you think the delay in Brexit is only about the EU?
Westminster establishment “bricking it” in every direction.
Nicola will call Indy2 when and only when the time is right.
Call it just now, and Scottish Independence will be gone forever. The UK is broken and will never be repaired so long as the lying, thieving charlatans that have caused the destruction in the UK, keep getting media/air time to spout lies to a thick gullible bunch of inbreds.
As for the picture at the top of the post, I think it was a bit unkind to call zombies the Tory Party, what have Zombies ever done to be discredited in such a manner.
On a happier note, Boris, Farage, Francois, Mogg, Gove, Davis, Fabricu*t, Grayling to name but a few, look like something out of the Simpsons.
Apologies to any Simpsons fans.
O/T
Looks like Assange will be spending the rest of his life in Gitmo,(if he survives the journey?) America shouts “BOO”, the UK shits itself.(Trade deals with Trump anyone?)
Anyone think it strange when the West try and overthrow governments whose Democratically Elected Presidents are in power for many years. (Normally some lame ass excuse to overthrow, like being in power for too long)
War Criminal Netanyahu gets re-elected for the 5th time and the USA celebrates, hypocrisy doesn’t even come close.
AIPAC will soon rule the world, sit back and weep, you have been warned.
@ yesindyref2 :
“Well, Green voters will stop “lending their votes” to the SNP, there’s already signs for that.”
What planet are you from? The RISE planet of rainbows & unicorns?
The only party benefiting from “loaned votes” are the Greens & ATM their leader seems to be doing a self-destruct on twitter quite unrelated to indyref2.
The SNP has a double (triple arguably) mandate to hold a plebiscite.
If they don’t use it then they’ll never be forgiven.
Game Over.
From the SNP website:
“SNP Spring Conference will take place on 27th and 28th April 2019 in the Edinburgh International Conference Centre (EICC)”
Strugeon always did say she would follow the will of the people.
Everything at the moment feels like the day after we lost the referendum because nothing’s happening and our hopes were so high and we got depressed for five minutes till the FM gee’d us all up again from the vacuum, and also because we see no certain way of moving forward, but the FMs a smart politician so I guess she probably knows all this, but we need her to find a way of communicating the direction so we have that something to aim for, and that’s where the vacuum comes in, we’ve got to have a purpose to aim for or we’re just millions of people griping into the ether
And who do we gripe to when we’re no happy no matter what age we are,,,,,Mum!
So c’mon Ma fix it for us
@Vestas
Eh?
Would you like to read my posting again? Do you want me to explain it to you in words on one syllable?
Want to call a friend? Go 50-50?
Here you go, maybe this article has done its job:
link to thenational.scot
I’m off to read it 🙂
@ yesindyref2 :
“Here you go, maybe this article has done its job”
No that’s the same old shit we’ve been hearing since last year and the year before – and you know it.
Oh look. After Judy Murray’s much criticised tweet about Scottish banknotes not being accepted in Engand, Alastair Carmichael raises it at Westminster:
Perhaps the moaners will shut up if this gets sorted out. Not much prospect though, apparently David Mundell tried this in 2009 but his bill died a death in that graveyard of democracy.
link to bbc.co.uk
We should all remember when Tory MP Lucy Fraser *joked* that Scots should be sold into slavery like we used to be in order to solve the West Lothian question
Almost as much SNPbad on here tonight as in the Herald and Scotsman.
People who don’t want to join the Party but want to have the right to direct policy. You do not have to join the Party leading the fight. However Your entitlement to an input is zero.
@Vestas
We’ll know in two weeks, or the latest after the SNP Conference. And if the SNP DO betray their manifesto pledges to “Give Scotland a Choice” over Brexit, I’ll be looking for a genuine Independence supporting party to vote for next Holyrood, and the SNP will never get my vote again. I think they’d be out in the wilderness again for many years.
And by the way – RISE? I’ve never had anything to do with them – nor would I.
@Clootie “Your entitlement to an input is zero.”
I sincerely hope the SNP canvassers, door-knockers, street-stallers, members, conference delegates, candidates and politicians don’t think the same as you …
link to theguardian.com
Would that the rules governing UK ‘democracy’, so-called, were followed as meticulously as those of horse racing.
This Tory Government, under the dizzying incompetence of the PMINO, Theresa May, operates without a shred of moral authority. The difference between right and wrong has been photo-shopped by the Tories to render them identical when looked at from the Government’s point of view.
@yesindyref2 :
So you’re slightly more than an SNP member then?
“We’ll know in two weeks, or the latest after the SNP Conference.”
ScotGov has a mandate. The trigger for the mandate has been breached. What has “conference” to do with it? They cannot change a mandate voted for 3 times which is the core of the party’s purpose.
Tick tock.
Al Dossary at 5.19pm.
You can sign my cheques no problem, Al. No difference.
Nicola’s latest letter to LINO (Leader In Name Only) is, I think a master stroke.
When, as she surely will, LINO refuses too involve the Scottish Government in the coninuing moger of Brexit, Nicola can then turn round to the SNP conference and say, in all honstly, we have tried everything, but Scotland is being ignored, our 62%-38% vote in favour of remaining within the EU, has been ignored.
We now have no other option but to call an Independence Referendum and keep Scotland where it wants to be – inside the EU.
@Vestas
I joined the SNP in September 2014 to keep Indy alive and went to Branch meetings unlike 95% of the branch membership. But party politics aren’t my thing, I’m non-aligned by nature so I didn’t renew in 2017.
I think at the SNP conference there will be a few agitated delegates, and some resolutions from branches.
@ Vestas – The trigger for the mandate has not been breached. We have not been dragged out of the EU against our will. Yet.
Or have you some other trigger in mind?
May is not going to resign, I’m not sure between her and Mundell which one has been going to resign the most often. Of course neither is ever going to resign, they have no principles so it’s impossible to embarrass them. I suspect both think they are doing an exceptional job, with hubris comes self delusion.
It’s the gradualist way, and is obviously ultimately leading nowhere fast. Thank you for getting us here, but it’s time for the fundamentalists to chart the course.
@Capella
“The trigger for the mandate has not been breached.”
Who would know that to be fact eh by the way some are reacting.
jfngw says: @ 6:14 pm
“May is not going to resign”
Why should he? Ok, he’s not as good now as he was with St Johnstone but he’s still a talent, with a Scottish Cup semi final to look forward to.
yesindyref2 @ 17:32,
I have a sneaking feeling that May will still try to get her “deal” through WM and have us all out by the end of (the month of) May and thereby avoid even the EU elections. (The flextension” would permit this, I believe.) May is the very personification of thrawn, so I can see her persisting with exit on her own – revised – schedule.
Whether she succeeds (with Corbyn as wee helper) or not is another matter. But hard to call our move until at least that’s out of the way, I suppose…
NS is damned if she does and damned if she doesn’t. Socrates MacSporran @ 6.08 I agree with you there. She has to have been seen to try all avenues.
It is getting on for 5 years since the Ind Referendum the death rate of voters would harm the No side as the majority elderly voted No. The Yes side would benefit from the newer additions to the electoral register. Although I wouldn’t give up on the elderly as the Brexit shambles opened quite a few eyes. Better Together? No chance. Many of the NO/Remain voters are not as opposed to Independence as they were in 2014. Hang in there.
I think people are underestimating how difficult a situation the SNP is in. Any new independence referendum needs to have a bit of excitement and glamour about it. If the SNP called it now, it might manage third spot on the BBC News behind Brexit, then either Theresa May breakdancing or Julian Assange’s plane taking off for destination Alcatraz, and then a few seconds of SNP ministers nobody in England has ever heard of applauding Nichola Sturgeon in oor Parliament, followed by a minute of Ruth Davidson taking time away from young Farquhar to lambast the SNP for putting their narrow agenda ahead of our bright Brexit future.
Most people are not expecting IndyRef2 to be announced soon even in the midst of this failing Westminster shitshow, and because the Brexit fiasco is like a floater that cannot be flushed, adding a new nugget of uncertainty to this stinking Brexit turd might just be too much for many and all those small-c conservative Scottish instincts could reassert themselves and independence is lost for at least a decade.
Maybe the SNP seem unsure what to do because there is very little to be done. The odds are just too difficult right now. Trying to be both the insurgents and the steady hand on the tiller is an almost impossible task, yet the SNP are doing OK all things considered. Look how many people dahhn Saaafff think Sturgeon’s pretty damn good compared to the useless fuckers we see most days.
Maybe we should listen to these scared witless sirens praising yin o’ oor ain. Independence is close enough to touch. It’s coming yet for a’ that…
Can you wait 2 weeks? I will after 6 decades of campaigning for Independence.
link to thenational.scot
@ Thepnr – I can understand the sense of frustration about being stuck in the doldrums. That was my reaction too to hearing about another 6 months of this BREXIT dronathon.
Yes it would be great to call an Indyref and with one giant leap we would be FREE. But want to win it, not just call it. Timing is everything.
Spot on Rev, I’m getting sick of all this pussy footing around with this bloody people’s vote.
Lets get outta here now!
Came to the same conclusion as the Rev Stu myself, tho’ in more moderate language:
link to scotlandisdifferent.wordpress.com
@RJS
That wouldn’t really matter, as that would be taking us out of the EU, no single market, no freedom of movement, no customs union. In fact it would make it more important to get Indy Ref 2 at least announced and on its way first.
Sturgeon did say she was going to wait till the end of the then current negotiating phase, and that’s over. She also said a delay wouldn’t stand in the way. So any time now, barring strange goings on at Westminster like a few hundred brain transplants!
tooodiloo the noo on the BBC says May will say “No” to any Independence reverendum. No qualification. May has spoken as has the BBC.
While I have always thought waiting until we know what Brexit we will have I am now thinking why bother-Brexit IS Brexit.
Scotland will be out of the EU and will be subsumed by the new found English Nationalism May or Corbyn style
So let’s just have a reverendum before October for Independence. The Unionists won’t be able to tell us what their Brexit is but we can still say we are still in the EU.We then fight positively that we are the best people to govern Scotland. August/September is now my preferred month.
Capella @ 18:10,
Re exiting the EU, it’s just an (obvious) example. The relevant wording is “such as”. So maybe he does have something else in mind. Besides, a situation doesn’t need to have actually happened before you can be sure that it’s going to happen. “Get your retaliation in first”, as the old footie saying goes.
Just as an (increasingly unlikely) last-minute revocation of Art.50 would not change the reality of a “material change of circumstances” – given the way we have been serially ignored and messed-around with – the same applies right now. It’s the situation we’re in already. How much economic and psychological damage has occurred already, and could easily happen again at any time, at London’s whim? So there is no justification for delaying our move until we are definitively out, if that’s what you’re advocating.
You don’t have to wait till the car heading straight for you actually hits to know you’re going to be splattered. All the more reason to act when you can see what’s coming and while you can still do something purposeful.
Gonna pitch it again…
Have the ECJ clarify whether Scotland can revoke Article 50 unilaterally.
I believe it will say yes, and EU will be obliged to observe that “yes”, and Scotland in effect will have a “dry run” at Sovereign recognition, but ALL held in abeyance because the ECJ has (hopefully) confirmed Scotland could revoke Article 50 unilaterally, not that is has, thus leaving Scotland to exercise that prerogative whenever it chooses. We will not have “pulled the pin”.
The Union would be dead in the water, but still waiting formal dissolution.
It’s a safety net for Scotland, which doesn’t preclude an IndyRef, a Peoples Vote, EU elections, or any other political manoeuvring, but Scotland’s Constitutional Sovereignty would have to be codified as a feature of Brexit negotiations, and Scotland will no longer be excluded.
Michel Barnier will be obliged to revisit his Withdrawal Agreement, and “shadow” the UK Withdrawal Agreement with an alternative Withdrawal Agreement featuring a potential “Scotland Remain” Option.
Scotland then has every option;
a) We could expand the provisional recognition implicit in the ECJ’s judgement and pursue the lawful, Constitutional route to Independence.
b) We could hold fire on any Sovereign declaration, pending a consultative fully Scottish referendum or plebiscite, no Section 30 required. (The ECJ and EU would recognise the result).
c) We could for a time at least remain as we are, moribund passengers in the UK’s tailspin, but with a formal and functional escape mechanism which everybody knows is there, from Theresa May to Orange Jacket man on Question Time.
d) Here’s the complicated one, but we could exercise a degree of sovereign authority to position Scotland as a Nation with one sovereign foot in the UK and another sovereign foot still in Europe, and bargain with both for a bespoke transitional status which can dig England out the shite it’s in by allowing it to Brexit, but with an EU safety line through its “traditional” trade routes through Scotland. The Irish Backstop has a workaround, because passage of trade goods through Scotland would regulate EU compliance and there wouldn’t be a border in Ireland.
Yes, I know Option d) would be an administrative headache for Scotland, especially if England was being difficult, but how can I put it, …Scotland would be England’s “tollbooth” into Europe, and Scotland would function as Europe’s hard Customs Border with a third country. With a little imagination, Scotland could even become trade hub for a Benelux type mini Union between English speaking, geographically British trading Nations… a kind of “federal” British trade cooperative.
“Everybody” gets what they want. Even Scotland’s BritNats get a British Union to hang on to. Scotland gets Indy and a trade boost, England gets Brexit with a safety net, and the EU still has a degree of control over English trade without suffering disruption on policy from Westminster. Ireland can manoeuvre its way through Brexit without a return of the Troubles.
Tellin’ ya. Indy Scotland, in Europe, and a massive clearing station for through trade between England and EU. It’s complicated, but there’s a genuine opportunity there that is massive…
Nicola Sturgeon has made another announcement that she’s going to make another announcement.
Well, who’d have thought it?!!
Is there anybody that didnae see that coming? haha.
I think even the most optimistic pro-indy campaigners are starting to understand that Indyref2 -or any vote on independence- is unlikely to happen under Ms Sturgeon’s leadership of the SNP.
@Capella “Yes it would be great to call an Indyref and with one giant leap we would be FREE. But want to win it, not just call it. Timing is everything.”
Yes, we want to win it, of course, but that’ll never be certain, even the 1997 Devo Ref wasn’t certain and only the Tories opposed it. Look what happened to the EU Ref, where Remain was expected to win. Or the snap GE where May expected to have more seats and lost the overall majority.
I think as Vestas says, if the SNP don’t call one on their mandate before the Holyrood elections, a lot of SNP voters will drift away, or not bother voting, and there won’t be another chance for decades as the SNP will be OUT. Whereas if they call it, and it’s a NO again WE will still be on board, and still voting SNP. They will have done their best, the SNP might well still be in Government at Holyrood, and we can have another one in 2024. And 2029. And 2034. And every 5 years until it’s a YES.
For me, this idea of waiting around until “we can win it” is suicide. insanity.
You have to be in it, to win it.
Breeks
The SNP don’t do Scottish sovereignty.
They do devolution and British sovereignty People’s Vote.
@ RJS – no I’m not advocating waiting till we are out of the EU. But we have to know what the Westminster decision is before campaigning against being dragged out of the EU. They are quite capable of revoking A50 if they fear the Golden Goose might escape. Of course, they would use some other excuse to disguise their reason for cancelling.
There are many other reasons to declare for Independence; such as the complete mess Westminster has made of our economy, our foreign relations and our social fabric.
But the big issue now is BREXIT and that will have to be resolved. The SNP are advocating REMAIN. That’s what Scotland intends to do.
@Proud Cybernat.
Well said, I think though its time the Yes movement went on the offensive, the anti Scottish and pro brit state media are our biggest hurdle. The Yes movement on the streets getting signatures demanding the Scottish Government seek a Judicial review on what charges can be brought against Politicians, broadcasters and journalists who lie and misinformation the public. There can’t be many people in Scotland who wouldn’t like to see that happen. Enough signatures would get a debate at Holyrood. It would be a great way, face to face, to get the message over to people just how badly we are served. The first example I would use is the Brexit campaign. Just a thought.
The anti SNP comments on what is a pro independence site are starting to turn from a trickle to a flood.
Nicola Sturgeon and her inner circle have slowly arw destroying much of the goodwill that was shown by people supporting independence towards the SNP.
It is one thing to be canny but quite another to totally inertial to the cause of independence.
Gender alignment for school kids, parking on pavements, fines for littering whilst playing the Westminster game seems to be the order of the day.
No fire, no vision, and at war with Alex Salmond, the SNP high command now appears very much out of touch.
The UK is in chaos and what are we doing. Little it seems.
The current SNP heirarchy do not have a monopoly on strategy. They need to engage.
So c’mon Nicola. You have an inner circle which is now in a different orbit from the rank and file. You do not have a monopoly, nor is your star chamber as all powerfull as you may think.
Rev Stuart Campbell says:
“What does that have to do with establishing the RIGHT to hold a referendum? What if we get to 60% in the polls but we don’t have the power to have the vote?”
Then surely, we go with the FIRST part of the ‘Right’:
“…if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people – or…”
If the polls are showing a majority, then we have the right to go for it… don’t we? The polls are showing ‘clear & sustained evidence’ that Scots want Indy and that SNP are going to increase their seats, in all the polls we’ve had for months. Surely THAT is indicative of what Scotland wants and fits the criteria?
On another note – your article has depressed me mightily. I’ve been one of the ones reassuring that Scotgov are ‘ca’in’ canny’ and making it clear they’re fulfilling the legal obligations of the SECOND part of the Indy criteria (change of circumstances) and doing all they can to make brexit work for Scotland. And cannot square the circle, thus going for indy.
I KNOW this extension gives Scotland a little respite & more time to get their ducks in a row, ie the Investment Bank up & running, currency issue sorted once & for all (with MORE attention paid to Scotland’s choice of currency rather than just Derek MacKay deciding), and things like infrastructure to necessary office we’ll need… I’m going to give them the benefit of the doubt for now. But I will be watching the Conference for signs that we’d going to do this thing called Indy…
I agree that the SNP seem to have been caught as a rabbit in the headlines. By insisting we need clarity on Brexit even while the UK becomes and international laughing stock and parliament and No10 show how useless and inept and chaotic they all are.
They don’t even need to name the date of the vote or the manner of it, just call a campaign. Many of the doors will be easy to open and persuade people but we need the sanction of a formal campaign to get them to listen. Ms Sturgeon we* can move the polls if put to work.
*Those of us experienced from the last one and raring to go again who can train and guide the new folk. Please Nicola, let your people go.
“I think”
No, you don’t.
@Breeks 7:08.
Yep, good idea. Nicola did say, not quoting here, that it would be up to us to let her know when we’d had enough. I think we’re there.
I cant help but feel that now is the time to launch Indy ref2, Im starting to feel disgust at the SNP for urging a second Brexit referendum Im beginning to wonder if we now have Red Tories Blue Tories and Yellow Tories, time we gave up assisting the rescue of the floundering Westminster Walrus and got on with our own business. SNP have did their best to halt Brexit now its time to save ourselves call Indy ref 2 and if May calls a GE we can all latch onto that to win most seats in Scotland and depart. Time the pussyfooting stopped or October may just be another blip on a never ending Brexit
I rather thought the whole point of delaying and delaying UKexit was so that over time the independence question would be delayed and delayed to the point that supporters became increasingly frustrated and turned back to the Labour and Tory party’s in Scotland cause they are so scunnered wi the SNP’s ‘ineffectualness’ re UKexit and not triggering indy2.
Ah mean let’s get real here…are we not the cash cow that is needed for UKexit’s wet dream to be made reality?
For Ruth to become FM you have to piss off quite a lot of independence supporters sufficiently that they no longer vote for the separatists SNP. SNP lose their majority, can’t activate the mandate thereby achieving Scotland’s acquiescence in its own demise?
If everyone is up for that…fine.
*walks casually into the sea*
Mibbi the answer is to announce that the 2021 Holyrood elections will be taken as a mandate to end the current Union?
It’s a date that is already set for going to the polls and we’d have time to clear any court cases if necessary.
Westminster would continue to implode but we will no be responding to each and every drama.They will either manage their Brexit or no!
May is never going to clear up this mess any time soon and we’d be caught up in the leadership/General election from Westminster even if we did have a referendum date to work towards,not to mention their people’s vote.
We could take back the initiative and set those elections as dealing with the UK Union no matter what Westminster does next!
It “could” also be presented as. … Holyrood will end the current Treaty arrangements and either negotiate complete separation or a new Treaty,the choice, to be made between the two at a future referendum when, both offers are clear and binding. Either way the current Union ends, and any new vow useless as only a new Treaty will do.. A renegotiated Treaty!
K1 7;28
You are right unless SNP start to deliver people will get fed up and walk away from politics never to return.
Aye Starlaw and then where will we all be?
Cubby.
An article and a whole host of BTL comments attacking the SNP leadership for a lack of direction, and your only contribution is to say I’m being negative for pointing out that it was a controversial article.
For what it’s worth, I don’t agree with many of the Rev’s opinions above. I don’t have any particular opinion on the SNP other than their push for independence which frustratingly will have to wait even longer now.
I’m not at all surprised about the extension, in fact weeks ago I posted that I expected this to go on for years. As another poster said earlier it’s about drawing Brexit out until it can be quietly shelved.
Anyways, we know the timetable now for finding out what’s what – it’s St George’s Day which the Englsih don’t really celebrate that much though you do see a few flags around and some Morris Dancers in more rural locations in such as the Lakes.
A good and sensible idea from Sturgeon to leave it for the two weeks while both Parliaments are in recess – and generally speaking Sturgeon and the SNP don’t have to instantly respond to whatever happens. A bit of shuteye and drinking, particualrly the drinking.
I suspect plenty will be happening “off-piste” in the UK Tory and Labour parties though as they fall further apart and into more decay if that’s even possible now. Pass the noesbag.
It’s party time!
MOT…
(My own thoughts).
The Scottish government has to use the mandate for indyref2 that it already has. I think the Thursday (or Saturday, for a change?) after the Edinburgh march/rally in October 2019 could be an opportune date.
If, for some strange reason, Scots vote against Independence, then for the next Westminster election, either after or before October 2019, the SNP should have in its manifesto, the “Maggie Mantra”.
Dr Doom@7.38pm
“…………on the SNP other than their push for independence which frustratingly will have to wait even longer now.”
When did you decide SNP policy. More Doom from Dr Doom.
The difference between you and most posters on this thread, (but not all eg C Alexander) is that you post Doom Laden posts all the time.
Still waiting to hear from your lawyer. A bit like the Maybot eh Dr Doom all talk no delivery.
Still waiting for your apologises for all your insults.
If the SNP heid bummers had any sense, they’d start by asking the EU to recognise a future Indy Scotland as the Successor State to the UK’s membership of the EU, and hold IndyRef2 before October 31st.
However, I won’t hold my breath…
The trigger for the mandate was breached when WM took the SG to court over the continuity bill. It turns out the SG were right. So WM delayed the result in order to change the law before the hearing.
It would be a big mistake to underestimate the SNP and particularly our leader Nicola.
The SNP will strike hard and we will win.
Keep the faith, our destiny is coming.
Free Scotland is coming.
The thing is folks we are starting this campaign at 50/50. It’s a fantastic opportunity to bring that up to 56% plus.
This is why the waiting and apprehension of our leaders is so frustrating. Salmond never thought he could win. But as soon as he got the SNP majority he got on with honouting the mandate.
Strategy is for during the campaign or before you get a mandate. We don’t need a strategy to announce a referendum date. Please remember Salmond announced the date before he had a section 30.
Fingers crossed that the Snp are holding out for a deal but with customs union included. Helped by labour. This will avert the unionists rubbish of hard borders and Indy will be called. But failing that what Snp leader could preside over a Holyrood that has had devolution powers stripped from it? That’s terrible. And unacceptable that the party of independence is rolling back on devolution without a fight.
Even if the whole brexit fiasco was called off the evil Tory policies of rape clause, bedroom tax etc is a material change in itself. Timing is everything Snp. But get a grip or the sands of time will slip through your fingers. The last referendum saw a 20% surge in the Indy vote plus a massive increase in membership. So will the next.
My point in the above is that Salmond never sought permission. He named a date and bounced Cameron into agreeing this. Nicola has asked for a section 30 but not named a date. It looks weak!
7-08pm
Behold, Coco has risen from his crypt – again!
I very seldom ever meet anyone who doesn’t support Independence (except if you go in Morrisons supermarkets) it’s as if the thickos shop there deliberately so they can buy union flag wrapped stuff to go with their Daily Express and Mail
I wouldn’t rely on polls showing anything but reflections of the dodgy questions the pollsters ask I believe we’re well ahead
Jist hurry up hurry up hurry up, who says I’m a big wean
Alex,is not dead he is waiting in the wings and will be back soon.
Mi5 is not going to win this one.
They are perfectly aware, but if he is out of the game for a crucial time is the mission objective.
Ah wee aside tae the the Brexit extension tae 31st Oct I can now pay the full out lay on my Oct holiday first time i’ve only payed a deposit .
Cubby.
Not true. I’ve always said I support Nicola Sturgeon on the timing of indyref2 and I still do. I’m less frustrated about the extension because, as I said, I saw that it was inevitable a while ago.
The point here is that your idea of a negative comment is one you don’t agree with. It seems there are a lot of Wingers more disgruntled with the SNP than me currently.
Serious question. Which of the Rev’s points from the article do you agree / disagree with?
Let’s start over eh? I apologise for calling you names in the past. It’s long been boring the endless sniping.
Does anyone actually think we will still be in the EU in October?
The EU candidates have to be named by April 25th. May could cobble a dirty deal with Labour by then. Then again Easter recess! Perhaps we will leave on May 22nd.
There has been so much ongoing tinkering of the hardly existing so-called UK ‘constitution’ over the past 25 years that the only thing now left for it (that UK ‘constitution’) to do is … implode completely. It has been on a ‘self-destruct’ for decades, and that kind of downward spiral has only one possible ending – demise! The UK is definitely coming to an end. More or less by its own inward, downward momentum.
The aping of the American Constitution with the introduction of ‘fixed-term’ governments was perhaps the final straw. Governments were no longer obliged to resign (not only morally, but in reality), when they lost substantial votes in the House of Commons. Although they could not command a majority, they could now carry in regardless, as if nothing had happened.
With that principle gone – and it had been presumed to be a ‘constitutional principle’ – another basic constitutional principle went down the Swanney with it(or, more correctly, down the Thames). Namely, … collective responsibility. The Cabinet, alias (with its extended members) the Executive, no longer had to agree on anything at all. Its members could all argue against each other, and still pretend that they remained in charge.
As if the governing elite of the governing Party did not have to carry its MPs with it, and command a majority in Parliament.
With all these supposedly long established and still presumed ‘constitutional principles’ ripped up, and left in tatters on the floor – yes, even that particular floor known as ‘the floor of the House [of Commons] – no one in the UK, even among those who still who believe in that same UK (count me out!), knows any longer how they are governed.
If there ever was a ‘British’ or a ‘UK’ constitution – and many presumed there was, even if they had many different versions of it – that so-called ‘constitution’ has just set itself on fire, in plain daylight and in the sight of everyone. It has consumed itself in a public conflagration of enormous Brexitania proportions and, having gone up in smoke, it has disappeared into thin air.
The UK has undone itself. More simply put, it has done itself in. Hari-kari.
Basically, it has already gone for good.
I am no great fan of Nicola. I don’t see her as the greatest political strategist of all time – in fact, I think all her strategies, and all her attempts at strategising, are basically flawed. But I am not worried. No matter how wrong she gets it – and who am I to say that she is so wrong anyway? – no matter how mistaken she may be with all her calculations, even she can’t stop Scottish independence from coming.
It doesn’t depend on her – or, finally, on the SNP. Scotland’s freedom, her re-entry into the concert of independent nations, is coming anyway.
Nothing – and no amount of blundering or procrastination or pussy-footing around on her or anyone else’s part (if such it be) – can stop it.
In a way, I don’t really care if she gets it all wrong. The people will still get it right. I don’t put my faith in any individual politicians. My faith in the people remains. The individual politicians come and go. The people remain.
They – the people – are sovereign. And, ultimately – despite all the manipulation to which they are subject – they will get it right. They will – in due course: gradually, ultimately, when the moment comes – see through any and all lies which have held them back, and to which they have been subject. And they really will make the right decision.
I have no doubt about that. No politician will ultimately stop them, the people. And no politician will do it instead of them. Far less, without them.
The Unionists (especially down south) got some crazy idea that this – the movement for Scottish independence – was some fantasy dreamed up and orchestrated by some individual. Get rid of that individual – they thought – and the whole thing will die. Go for Salmond … ! Go for Sturgeon … ! Go for whoever …
That is, go for ‘whoever they like’, they won’t kill it.
If its time has come – and it has – they (the opponents of independence) won’t stop it. No matter how feeble, or enfeebled, the leadership of that (people’s) movement might seem – and no matter how much that movement’s opponents might succeed in deliberately wounding its leaders – these opponents simply can’t, positively CANNOT stop it, and WON’T EVER BE ABLE to do so.
Nicola’s got it all wrong? Probably. But that won’t stop it either.
And even if she hasn’t got it all wrong – even if she has been right all along (both in her strategy, and in everything else) – that is NOT what will bring about independence.
It will happen anyway. Whether she – NS – is right or wrong, it will still happen. She won’t achieve it – we will.
Come on, Scotland: have a bit of faith in yersel’. C’mon people of Scotland: Scotlan’ is yours.
I am honestly not worried about the future. Come hell or high water … and no matter the means (Who cares about the means? It’s the end that matters, and it’s well in sight) … it’s comin’, for a’ that.
As sure as the old UK’s star is falling off the horizon, into oblivion … just as surely, Scotland’s star is rising. A new dawn is already visibly glowing, and will soon fully appear.
Nothing can prevent these two things from happening. They are entirely intertwined, and interdependent. The one follows the other, as surely as day follows night.
Come what may, the UK is finished. It is not Mrs May, or any other individual – Brexiteer or other – who is finishing it off. Its time has gone – that is all. Nothing anyone can do about it. They – all such ‘anyones’ – are but instruments, and unwitting instruments at that. The thing is happening anyway, with or without them – despite, and not because of the individuals who happen to be around at the time, and happen to be the occasion of it.
So too with Scotland. This is our time. Scotland reborn … It might come about in all kinds of ways, expected and unexpected, planned and completely unplanned – but, whatever the case, Come it surely WILL.
Doubt it not!
Don’t be complacent. But don’t lack confidence, either – nothing is more sure.
PS I don’t know what has happened with Jackie Bird resigning so suddenly from her job with BBC Scotland. I haven’t followed the story, and don’t know anything about it, but suspect it is probably for health reasons. In which case (and, indeed, even if that’s not what’s behind her decision), I suggest we all join in offering her our sympathy and support, and every best wish. If Jackie hasn’t been a fan of independence, or a favourite of many in the pro-Indy movement, that should not prevent any of us from showing the common decency and respect that is due to her, as it is to each and every human being. If it’s a health problem, we wish her well, and a good recovery. If it’s something else, we also wish her well and all the best for her future. (And even if it was to oppose the Indy movement in some other capacity – well, everyone has a right to their own view, and we don’t hold grudges. An independent Scotland will be called to rise above such things – and will surely do so. And it won’t be monolithic.)
Brigands of the 77th Brigade are out in force today , nothing new for us piss offf the lot of yous
Spot on. The only other explanation for delay would be that there are those in high office in SNP who work for the other side.
Jackie Bird has only stopped presenting the teatime news she’ll still be working at the BBC
Good article, but I wonder how the significant minority of YES supporters who tactically voted Remain (and I have spoken to enough of them out there to conclude that the vote would have been akin to Northern Ireland levels without them) in order to trigger Indyref2 are feeling now.
I have to say, I am sympathetic to the few I know who refer to Sturgeon as Krankie MacMerkel, as she seems more enamoured with the status quo of the European project, than she is on furthering the independence movement (witness not only her lack of support for, or attendance at, independence events – but her willingness to attend Remainer events and cosy up to neo-cons like Alistair Campbell).
At this stage, I have to say that, as someone married to a Northern Irishwoman, I never, ever thought I would say this, but I’m more confident of a United (Federal?) Ireland than an independent Scotland and am considering hedging my bets for the future and getting the Irish passport I’m entitled to and which my wife and kids already have. I shudder to think what future Scotland will face if it doesn’t act and act fast.
Independence is definitely on because John McTernan says it’s definitely off
Alan Cochrane says the Tories are set to make gains, again 100% means the opposite
I see why so many are losing faith in the SNP.
I do not think the SNP are unsure of what they are doing.
I’m certain the SNP know exactly what their plan of action is.
Westminster is untrustworthy but they are also a formidable opponent with lots of practice at this type of politics and a House of Lords full of very successful business people .
If the SNP call another Scottish independence referendum before brexit happens you can be certain that Westminster and its supporters ,newspapers BBC STV etc would use that as a way to persuade all those people who have moved from NO to YES to move back to NO on the basis that SNP are not really interested in democracy or the majority vote or the rest of the UK and those movers would quite likely be taken in by that ploy.
SNP know for sure that if brexit does not happen it’s good for Scotland economically and Scottish independence can be kept warm for the “right time” which will inevitably come in the not too distant future when the next crisis arrives.
SNP know for sure that if brexit DOES happen then the mandate for holding another Scottish independence referendum can be used.
It’s win win for SNP
For me and others who want Scottish independence and want it NOW it is hugely frustrating and infuriating ,I am 63 born in Dundee all my relatives are from Dundee it’s my home town where I live now but I spent the first 20 yrs of my life living in England Northern Ireland and other HM Forces favourite postings and I have wanted Scotland to be independent since I was a boy before I knew an SNP existed ,it would mean so much to me if independence happened in my lifetime.
If it doesn’t happen soon ,within a few years ,it will be extremely difficult for me to keep the faith and support and interest going.It has impacted on my life too much already, I think about it every day and it is tiring.
I’m going to the SNP spring conference in a couple of weeks to see what the vibe is .
And to hear what the SNP plan is.
I hope I don’t regret going.
What a totally depressing, in fact, utterly demoralising article. H*llish in fact and one that has just given the green light to the Nicola Sturgeon is ‘a hopeless case’ crew.
There’s no point in me rehashing all that Nicola Sturgeon has done for Scotland and the work that she has put into keeping us in the EU: And hey no one even knows yet if that still remains a possibility, hence one of the reasons for her being loathe to call Indyref2 right now, I would imagine.
As to Nicola pushing for a People’s Vote, well she could have been planning to state that if it resulted in the same 2016 outcome we would be walking away and if it resulted in Remain she’d still have (m) any number of reasons to follow that up with an Indyref2. Not withstanding the chaos (and riots?) that the latter outcome would lead to in England with Brexiteers calling for a General Election and / or a rerun of the EURef / PV.
No can predict whether a GE will be held or not within this extension period. If there’s one thing that we’ve learned, or should have learned, with this Brexit debacle is that we can’t rule anything out. And in relation to your comment Stu that the, ‘’legal grey area over whether Holyrood has the power to hold a referendum without Westminster approval should have been resolved years ago’’ has been resolved as far as I can make out with Scotland having the right to hold advisory referendums and if it led to an Indy majority Westminster would be up sh*t creek trying to prevent that from happening.
Nicola Sturgeon has stated, as outlined in the National, that: ’’the case for independence is stronger than it’s ever been, but we need to do things at the right time and in the right way, because we’ve got to convince a majority, not just of the SNP, but a majority of people in Scotland, that independence is the right choice for the future.”
link to thenational.scot
Well there you go Stu. Instead of any number of people on here, rather than the SNP, ‘’sitting on their backsides and waiting to react to events controlled elsewhere’’ or worse still ‘’looking around for buildings tall enough to jump off of’’, they could in fact be out and about delivering your wee (whatever colour) book. That would surely go a long way in assisting Nicola Sturgeon to help us to achieve our Independence, would it not? If so, forget about us waiting on Nicola Sturgeon and ask ourselves what exactly are WE waiting for now? Brexit clarification?
…………………………
@ Breeks says at 7:08 pm ….”Gonna pitch it again… Have the ECJ clarify whether Scotland can revoke Article 50 unilaterally. I believe it will say yes’…
And I’ll pitch this again. Do you REALLY think that Nicola Sturgeon, et al, hasn’t looked into this Breeks? That she, and her many expert mates such as Joanna Cherry, aren’t as smart as you? And what if we did go down that route and they said NO? No because Scotland, simply, isn’t recognised as an EU Member State. The EU is a treaty-based organisation and the UK, not Scotland, is the contracting party to the Treaties of the EU. In saying NO, where would that leave us? With an emboldened Westminster and a totally despondent and crushed Holyrood and Scottish population (at least 50% of us)? You ”believing”, and more so not being a Constitutional expert, doesn’t quite do it for me.
They’re flooding in Ronnie
Something missing here tonight 😉
SNP truly playing a blinder.
The hard core Brexiteers in rUK (and WM) must utterly detest these subsidy junkie jocks that are fighting tooth and claw to keep them in the EU (against the will of the majority of good, Brexit-loving English folks).
How very dare they.
I know – when the jocks ask for another Indy Referendum, let them fucking well have it and we can be rid of the barstewards for good, save ourselves a fortune into the bargain and finally get rid of the obstacle blocking our way to a full English.
Like I said – playing a blinder!
Nicola now needs to call it. The UK is in a state of political paralysis and just that very state will damage Scotland. No company anywhere would want to invest here until they can be sure how things will pan out. The need certainty. They need decisiveness.
Scotland now needs to be decisive. We can no longer wait until the freak show concludes – we know where it’s heading. Now is the time for DECISIVE ACTION. Scotland cannot as a country remain in this state of paralysis and be damaged by it.
We must take full control of our destiny. We do not need full Brexit clarity to know that the uncertainty of it is ALREADY DAMAGING Scotland.
It’s time to go. Time to be decisive. Time to save our kids’ future.
The 77th seem to be doing thei best tonight.
Maybe Stu is just ‘letting’ everyone come off the fence…hahahahaha.
Now is the time which is the hardest and which the establishment hope to do most damaage by sowing discontent.
Impatience is our enemy here, we need to hold steady, soon the game is up for the UK. United we win, divided we fall and lose everthing, probably past my lifetime.
We are not party to Nicola Sturgeons plans for good reason!
Pretty bleak, understandable if you are labouring in the endless tedium -: a journalistic Sisyphus reporting on the absurd.
I’m not entirely sure about the nihilism though, there always was the possibility of three bites of the cherry: Indyref, SGE & GE, if the SNP stood the latter two on an Indy ticket.
Failing a referendum occuring, can it really be argued that Indy supporters would abandon politics and wouldn’t get behind the SG Elections if the SNP stood on a ticket? Similarly at a subsequent GE, where would they all go? Into the West with tears?
Certainly, many would be livid if no Indy was called in the current SG term, the argument in the OP is apparently it can’t be done without WM’s say-so amyway. The same could be said of any result though – win on an Indy ticket at the SG and “Sorry, can’t have it, doesn’t count” says WM – Win a majority in a GE, same answer. Is there really a difference in WM rejecting the competency to hold an Indyref and outright rejecting Independence via any “democratic” means.
I have seen absolutely no evidence to suggest that any government at Westmimster wouldn’t act like that – What aegis would compel them to suddenly act democratically and lawfully? I missed that class.
I think that if it can be argued WM absolutely does not wish Scottish Independence, then as the ultimate creators and arbiters of law (arguably) then the rules will be altered to say it cannot happen, or due process will just be ignored – therefore, ideally, just hold an Indyref and call the bluff.
What is going on anyway? The Westminster equivalent of “rope-a-dope” – exhaust the entire populace and politics until everyone just gives up? Christ, if so it’s genius, because it seems to be working.
As for waiting for it to be more ‘winnable’ – well, honestly, if Scots don’t go for it this time, why would the SNP or anyone else bother their arses again. It will also never be such a slow news week, that London-centric politics won’t be exercising the media. A cat up a tree story will be preferable to running commentary on Scottish politics.
Perhaps “more winnable” means waiting for more native born Scots to die out so other nationalities with a bit of backbone take Scotland to Independence, or it becomes the failed nation it would deserve.
I’ve heard all the “We made a mistake” and “I’m a new convert” – well then, let both sides prove it. The party of Independence and the erstwhile Independence supporters. It’s been five years, how long is a political genration, longer than the fixed term parliament act? Surely not.
I’ve lived all my days without Indy and the world will not end without it. I will never stop evangelising for it, but if the pulse is not there, call the time of death – but first check the pulse.
yesindyref2 at 709pm
I agree entirely with every part of your analysis in that post.
As I said many times since the EU referendum, independence is not just about Europe it about the thousand things that make a nation. But my making Europe the sole reason for an indy2 Nicola Sturgeon will have effectively weakened our case should some kind of settlement with some European ties being accepted.
I read today of Norway`s giant oil company Equinox`s £4.5 billion investment in UK north sea and another company announcing profits of £1/2 billion, our oil yet Scotland has no say or control of this resource in our waters.
I`d like to hear the SNP being a bit more vocal and assertive in this area but I fear they have fallen asleep on this and much more.
I don’t agree with Stu that the SNP position is to support a People’s Vote which nobody can define.
The SNP position is that Scotland voted REMAIN and should remain in the EU. A compromise position is to stay in the CU and SM with FoM an essential component.
The PV is a democratic “backstop”, to coin a phrase, so that, as a last resort, we all vote again with REMAIN an option on the ballot paper.
Up until now, I thought Sturgeon and the SNP had a strategy. I thought this strategy was to either prevent Brexit or facilitate a soft Brexit which would still give us a mandate for a second indyref because Scotland is still being taken out of the EU against its will.
After reading this article, I am left feeling pessimistic and uncertain. The UK political scene has never looked so hopeless or stagnant. We are in limbo and God knows how we’re going to get out of it.
We’ve already had 2/3 years of this BS. Now we’re facing another six months, possibly more if the EU extends the deadline (again!)
Brexit, no Brexit, SNP rule on a knife-edge. It’s all very depressing. The greatest empire the world has ever seen reduced to an international laughingstock.
What now, fellow Scots?
Very interesting reading the comments and in particular the ones ‘convinced’ that the independent party are not for independence! Hahaha
Stu is voicing the fears of many folk and it’s right that we are allowed to voice them but, none of us are any the wiser about the direction of travel but we sure know who the doomsayers are judging by the folk I’ve never heard of before on here!
I’m actually quite positive now after reading this. Weird huh!!!
It’s nice to see “Colin Alexander” and the Rev Stu on the same page. Must be a first.
And yet the new members keep walking in. In our wee area I have never met so many people who have changed their minds and so many people so appreciative of the honest, sensible, constructive part Nicola Sturgeon has played in holding out a kind helping hand to our neighbours who despite her efforts are determined to harm themselves.
These many people are our target change voters and we are getting them in hordes at the moment. And this is accelerating. Very close I think to tipping point for the SNP.
Over the last couple of days as I am presently without my vehicle I have been using the local buses. I am greeted with “when are we going for it” by many I know never supported the SNP or independence before.
Nicola Sturgeon has cleverly made it impossible for our opponents to attack her or us (which they would rather do than attack independence) and she has four times the brains of a lot of folk commenting on here.
Or perhaps some of us haven’t noticed that the whole world now knows that his hugely impressive woman is leading Scotland to independence – and they are applauding that fact.
Many ways to skin a cat and I am sure the SNP knows exactly what it is doing – in very difficult circumstances.
As Nicola said the other day “I thought we would be in different place by now – but I underestimated the incompetence of Theresa May”.
Capella at 540pm,
The problem is, that the phrase ‘legal tender’ is being incorrectly used and is totally misunderstood. Whether a shop accepts your money or not has nothing whatsoever to do with it being legal tender. What is important is that in the shop owners eyes, it is legal currency, although a shop may, if it so chooses to accept anything in payment.
The term legal tender comes from English law relating to debtor payments. It was designed for one task, to prevent legally somebody paying a debt to a debt collector in , for example lots of pennies. So say a disgruntled debtor has to pay a debt of a thousand pounds to a debt collector, they may decide, well stuff them, I’ll pay it in thousands of pennies, or 5 pence pieces..well you get the idea. What the legal tender legislation does is stipulate the minimum units allowed to pay a debt, so you can only have a maximum of say one pound in one pennies, and up to a hundred pounds in ten pound notes and so on.
THAT,i s what legal tender is. And, of course as it is English law (so far as I understand) it references ENGLISH notes and coins. That is it. That is all their is to it.
It was never designed as a way to refuse notes from Scotland or whatever. Whether a ten pound note is English or Scottish, the fact it is or isn’t ‘legal tender’ is wholly and completely irrelevant.
So, anyway, long story short, a shop refusing to take Scottish notes because it ‘isn’t legal tender’ is nonsense. No UK bank will refuse Scottish notes, so their is zero justification for a shop to refuse them.
When in England, simply do as I do, if my money is refused, regardless of the food or whatever, I make it clear I have offered to pay by a UK legal currency accepted by ALL UK banks, and that it is their choice to refuse. I then walk out. They can put the goods back on the shelves themselves. If it is hot food, and they have an issue with it, and threaten to call the police, I’ll offer them my own phone to do so.
Scots should NEVER back down on this. It is anti Scotland racism, pure and simple. It’s also pretty f***ing offensive.
The Tories will go in like now. Until there is a GE they can lose. That is what always happens. The Westminster unionist leave their mess behind for someone to clear up.
The SNP can go to Court for a S30 any time, and get it because of the way Westminster unionists have carried on. They won’t until they can win it. Predicting elections in 2021 is just stupid and can’t be done, as recent events show.
The SNP can just leave the Union behind. Ireland can reunite. Rebellion Netflix. Even though they pay no tax.
Petra at 9.09
With you exactly, Petra. Isn’t it odd as SNP poll vote continues to grow and Tory and Labour move down in the teens some folk don’t actually understand what is happening here.
We are beating them off before we even start.
There have been four polls out recently (all subsamples certainly ) showing the SNP with higher support than the combined Tory/Labour/LibDem support and winning virtually all the seats in Scotland should there be a General Election (or any election). Or referendum?
And Nicola Sturgeon is not doing well? How does that work?
@ Robert Louis – yes I know. The BBC article I linked to spelt that out. The purpose of the Bill is to back up our right to use our currency anywhere in the UK.
I agree on not backing down. In some situations it’s difficult though so being able to refer to legislation might help?
e.g. last year I went to a Post Office for change for a bus fare and the Post Office assistant refused to change my Scottish note because counterfeit Scottish notes had been circulating – so they said. But apart from demanding money with menaces there was little I could do.
Terry callachan at 9.08
“I see why so many are losing faith in the SNP.”
Who exactly? Some excitable folk on here perhaps but not the man and woman on the street.
I am pretty confident that Nicola Sturgeon will now move. And that it’s game on for Indy.
Even if she waits until Holyrood reassembles before making an official announcement, neither she nor anyone else higher up in the SNP will be on holiday until then. An awful lot will be happening behind the scenes.
And some who seem increasingly frustrated will be listened to, given plenty to hope for, and brought on board. A consensus there will be. Then …
Whatever she says to the reassembled Holyrood will be clear. And it will be followed, with even greater clarity, in very quick succession, by whatever she says at the SNP Conference.
And … We’re off!
Even articles like the present one of Stu will be attended to, and will play their role (even if that role will never be acknowledged). For those who don’t like the article, take heart: it is simply sending a loud and clear message to the SNP leadership: Let’s get started! Let’s get going! It can’t wait any longer!
I expect NS already knows that – and the more reminders she gets of it, the better. Even for her. She won’t ignore them this time. In fact, this kind of thing will only make her even more determined to demonstrate that she DOES indeed know what she has doing. That it hasn’t been procrastination – it’s all very well planned. And fully thought through in advance.
If this is indeed the case, and if her speeches to the parliament and to the SNP Conference clearly demonstrate it to be so, Rev. Stu won’t mind being proved being wrong. And neither will any of the rest of us doubters.
Of course, she will have to prove that there will now be no fudge – and i think she will prove it.
Meanwhile, I think it likely that the Corby-May Lab-Con stitch-up will (in one way or another) combine May’s original deal with CU participation, while excluding absolutely the single market and freedom of movement. And I think NS will take that, for England / ‘rUK’, because that will keep the border open when Scotland is independent.
And she will at the same time go full blast for Scottish independence on the grounds that the CU is not enough for us – we need to be in the Single Market as well, and have freedom of movement.
I personally hope she will affirm that an independent Scotland would immediately seek full membership of the EU. But I don’t know if she will. A Norwegian-style arrangement would certainly have to be presented as the minimum. In order to placate SNP members who voted Leave she might suggest a post-independence referendum to choose between ‘Norway’ or full membership. No doubt in the expectation that full membership would win handsomely.
If May-Corbyn’s England / ‘rUK’ get their Customs Union through the Commons (maybe with SNP support this time, instead of their abstention the last time it was proposed at Westminster), an independent Scotland within the EU will profit from that. It is a much better outcome for us than either May’s original deal or No Deal. And such a Customs Union arrangement is not an argument against independence, at least if it excludes freedom of movement (and, with it, single market membership). And their refusal of freedom of movement, it seems, is THE red line on which neither Corbyn nor May will ever compromise.
If it goes along these lines – no matter what I think of it – NS might well be able to mount a convincing argument to claim that her strategy has worked well!
Anyway, whether or not it has, whether she has been right or wrong to go about it in the way that she chose to do so, independence is coming anyway. It is certainly on its way …
Some more of my own thoughts on the article.
THERE WILL BE NO SECOND EU REFERENDUM
This is still up for debate and in fact it looks to me as if it already is the most likely direction of travel if there is to be any kind of compromise in Westminster that will get some kind of deal passed. I think MP’s would be willing to pass a deal if the public get a chance to say yay or nay to it.
Now I totally agree that May is unlikely ever to support this and neither will any possible successor, however just as with the Cooper-Letwin bill it only needs Parliament to decide that a second vote on any deal will be subject to a “confirmatory referendum” and that will then become the law.
It is possible for Parliament to force a 2nd referendum even if May or a successor is totally against one.
ARTICLE 50 WILL NOT BE REVOKED
So lets say that there is absolutely no chance of any sort of deal being acceptable to a majority in Westminster. Well where then?.
I can’t see the EU giving extensions to Article 50 forever and when there is nothing left to choose from other than exit with no deal or revoke Article 50 then it’s my view that revoke will be the decision made by MP’s as the lesser evil.
There is no appetite among MP’s for a no deal Brexit and faced with such a stark choice. I believe they would either directly revoke it or force a 2nd referendum and let the electorate decide. I definitely would not rule this out as a possibility.
McDuff at 9.34
“But by making Europe the sole reason for an indy2″……
When did the SNP or Nicola do that? I must have missed it and I usually pay attention.
Brexit against the will of the Scootish people (now standing at 74% opposed) hugely increases the case for independence and the Scottish Government is entirely correct and HONEST to try to prevent it in the interests of Scotland. And has gained support hugely by doing so.
But as Nicola says it has merely “strengthened the case for independence” not become the only case for independence.
We have an Indy ref (consultative,informational,Etc no matter what you call it) before Halloween and if YES we remain in the EU anyway.
No Brit government could fly in the face of UN imperatives.
All we need do is win the hearts and minds if not pockets of former NO’s.
Personally I find it difficult to remain calm in the hearing of the stupendous lies but that we must do and gently persuade.
As an extra consideration revoking Article 50 or cancelling Brexit would remove the unionists trump card – arguing about a damaging hard border beween Scotland and England.
I am sure Nicola is very aware of this.
That is the best reason I know for the SNP to try to stop Brexit
I have supported the SNP since the 70’s but in relation to the question of a Independence referendum as I stated earlier to hold one before Brexit in October is becoming attractive tactically.
For those who wish to hold fire I think there will never be a right time for them. You can’t win if you don’t fight.
May or Corbyn unwilling to support a reverendum or “not to give permission” would play extremely badly in Scotland although we don’t need anyone’s permission in my view. Westminster is week, a sharp 4 month campaign with our foot soldiers will bring success. Over 100000 EU citizens here willing to vote YES this time. Deciding factor EU Election. Do well have a “Yes to Independence No to Brexit” referendum.
Heard Hilary Benn interview earlier on BBC Radio 4. He casually says that, if there is still no agreement by October 31st then Westminster would seek another extension.
Using their time wisely already.
There is part of me just wants to get on with Indyref2 but at the same time I am still coming across hard unionists, even in the light of everything that is happening in Westminster.
It seems some unionists just will not open their eyes.
I have tried taking a different tack by describing Scotland as a dependency culture (as described by English politicians)and that unionists support dependency but they still seem happy enough being treated as dependent. It is doing my head in
I think Nicola will now wait until the EU elections to guage the most up to date info on Scots attitude to Europe. If – as most of us suspect- there will be a high level of support from an increased turnout I think that’s when she’ll call it.
I don’t think she’ll announce it at the SNP conference because she’s first minister of all Scotland, not just independence supporters, and needs to reinforce this. I reckon the statement will come from Bute House.
Been in Finland for the past few days and while it is a relief to be in a Brexit free zone (the only time it was mentioned was by me and was greeted with varying degrees of amusement if often with attendant embarrassment since the Fins are a sensitive and well meaning people) this article has prompted me to respond on the eve of my son’s wedding.
I give you two scenarios.
Scenario 1: UK leaves the EU.
Scotland goes for independence. The main and very powerful argument the Britnat machine will use in the ensuing campaign is, ‘Look how difficult it was for the UK to leave the EU. Scotland leaving the UK will be much more problematic and will take much longer’. We will make sure of that.
Scenario 2: UK remains or gains a soft Brexit deal.
Scotland goes for independence. Now there is no more traction in that killer argument because we will still both be in the EU or signed up to a soft Brexit.
However Scottish voters will have still observed how Scotland has been treated by Westminster since 2016 (and even since 2014). The lie of ‘a Union of equals’ has been exposed more than ever before. The incompetence, exceptionalism and delusion of the Westminster ruling elite has also been exposed for all to see.
While in scenario 1, indy could still win if the ‘Rotterdam Effect’ writ large of England was explained, if concentration was on resource to population ratio and GDP pc, if the largely fanciful changes in EU regulatory control were explained, the Britnat controlled media in Scotland would never allow that explanation to happen.
Personally I would be much more confident in a scenario 2 indy win even if that takes a little longer. Especially with the ongoing threat that a Brexit2 campaign could very well be on the cards.
Scenario 2 also has the advantage that we would not be faced with an England in crisis and increasingly desperate which could lead to God (or the Devil) knows what.
No idea if that is where the SNP leadership is at but it makes sense to me.
Westminster doing what it does best ie nothing. From a democratic viewpoint they have failed their own voters and seem determined to thwart what was democratically decided because they feel they know better. It’s an arrogant point of view, especially considering the state of the country.
That said, Brexit is a terrible idea. The best way to avoid it is through independence and being dragged out against our will is EXACTLY what was quoted as a reason for IndyRef2!
SNP will forever be pummelled for suggesting a second referendum for Brexit, ANY moves towards independence for Scotland will have this wheeled out ad nauseum.
So, NO second Brexit vote, let them leave. Hold an IndyRef and let us both LEAVE and STAY.
One thing is for sure, we can look forward to yet another hung parliament in Westminster. The only parties likely to increase their vote are LibDems (low starting point) and possibly UKIP (zero starting point) that’s IF we’re still in EU by that time. If we ARE still in it I predict that England could well be mostly on fire…
What would you say if I told you a *journalist* came on the TV and pompously claimed to know and speak to more people in the Independence movement than Chris McIileny and that he knew exactly when Nicola Sturgeon was going to go for Indyref and that the SNP weren’t ready because they hadn’t answered the questions from the 2014 referendum and the support really wasn’t there yet, and he did it all with a smirky look on his coupon
Would you have thought for a minute that *journalist* worked for the National, nah I bet you wouldn’t, but he does
Euro news distinctly underwhelmed by the lack of urgency in Westminster.
They are keeping an eagle eye on the House of Toffs parliament.
Via Euronews: May hammered by MPs on Brexit extension and way forward
link to euronews.com
I am fascinated by the notion of some people getting fed up and losing interest in Scottish independence. Lol.
Nobody who actually understands the need for Scottish independence – as a permanent need – will ever stop understanding it. We might feel frustrated, angry and at times disconsolate but we will always be committed to it. Supporting the Brits will NEVER be an option for us.
The Brits are an unconscionable enemy. If we are daft enough to offer ourselves up to a confrontation they will have zero qualms about annihilating Scotland, simply because we are hugely outnumbered. May, Corbyn, Cable – none of them give a shit about life in Scotland and nor do their political parties. They are Brits first and last and rhetoric aside (yes you Corbyn) the lives of other people mean nothing to them – evidenced most recently by their actions in the middle-east. The SNP have to be acutely aware of this and it must always inform their actions. Not a nice situation but the harsh reality.
BUT WE CAN WIN providing that we hold our nerve, have sufficient patience and adopt guerrilla tactics – and that is what I believe the SNP are set on doing. For them and us to succeed they absolutely depend on but can never publicly acknowledge the role and importance of the wider YES movement. With the self-starting determination of Wings, the Dug, AUOB etc. the SNP has a real chance of delivering independence in the foreseeable future. If we allow impatience to undermine us the Brits will win on this occasion because the Scots got huffy and rolled over. Not much of a legacy to the next generation and it isn’t going to happen.
Chick McGregor at 10.49
Exactly
Dr Jim at 11.15
Which journalist?
@Dave McEwan Hill
Didn’t catch his name but around 60s white hair and beard
I can’t believe that a Yes win will be difficult to get.
Last time we almost got there – and that was when it was a bold brave step into the unknown, and we were promised the moon to stop us voting Yes. They almost lost.
We only need 190,000 more Yes votes. How many EU connected voters are there who probably voted No last time?
I really don’t believe that we need fear putting it to a vote asap. Last time we weren’t getting 100,000 people on the streets in support of Yes. Nowadays we are confident of that level of support.
My MP says they are focused on the prize. So have faith and keep on working everyone, in whatever way you can.
@Arthur Thomson
I completely agree, gaining Independence requires determination to succeed and belief that we will get there. I totally understand the frustration with the delay on any detail coming from the SNP but that is the consequence of Westminster prevarication and not Nicola Sturgeons.
I want another Independence referendum to go ahead as soon as possible and as quickly as possible. I don’t though accuse Nicola Sturgeon of prevaricating because her position is unchanged since 2017 when she announced “when the terms of Brexit are clear” or at least words to that effect.
Even her patience though will have its limits and I expect something soon, I doubt it will be a date for the next referendum but the process to get there might just be set in motion.
I can’t believe, judging by many posts on here today just how fragile Independence support appears to be and that is among the so called “hardcore” grassroots. By all means express your frustration but make sure you aim those daggers in the direction of your enemies rather than your own side.
Independence needs to be won and won’t be handed over on a plate, that will take all of us working together to achieve.
@Dave McEwan Hill
There are things we say to each other and things we discuss within the movement or even stuff we spout on Wings but we don’t and shouldn’t ever go on Scotland tonight with help me Rona and do it on live TV in direct disagreement with what’s supposed to be a colleague
It was way less than helpful
Martin Hannan
I am sure we have tipped the balance now,but we have no idea what will be flung at us if we start a campaign. So keeping our opponents in the dark and unsuspecting would be a vey good idea.
I am amazed at the number of English fok – and there is a lot in the Cowal area – who are coming into our Forward Shop and volunteering support for our independence.
With nothing much happening over the next one and a half weeks, parliaments in recess, the EU taking a welcome break from Westminster day-trippers (so demanding!), unless something unscheduled happens or those pesky Russians invade perhaps to steal our baots and our whisky (again), there’s no reason for any further significant changes.
In previous episodes, just as it looked like the heroine was going to make some announcement, May and Corbyn and their unruly rabble went off in different directions from, well, themselves basically. Our heroine had to shake her head and shiver her timbers and patiently put things off. Every time! She couldn’t predict just how incompetent the lot of themn were going to be.
But with nothing happening the next 1.5 weeks, now she’s announced she’s going to make a report on Indy Ref 2 on the 23rd April, there’s unlikely to be a reason why she can’t enthusiastically / reluctnantly, say something, well, anything, and this is where all things converge on the one scheduled day.
The doubters who think she’s thrown in the towel / dithering / running off to Portugal / in it for the lifestyle / whatever, PLUS those who have faith, whether blind or guarded, permanent almost sheep-like trust, or doubting Thomas type trust (seasonal reference), all come together on the one date – 23rd April 2019. St George’s Day. Time to slay the Dragon, not that I’d call May that of course, how rude!
Then we see the whites of the eyes, if it’s politically correct to say that. In just 11 days and a few hours, we shall all know. Well, something 🙂
Brexit means Brexit!
I have no intention of holding a General Election!
We will be leaving the E