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Wings Over Scotland


Kicking down the doors

Posted on February 14, 2017 by

When we commissioned our latest opinion poll from Panelbase, we were aware that there’d been a lot of polls recently about independence and Brexit/the EU and even Westminster voting intentions, but surprisingly few on the next thing that Scots will actually go to polling stations for – the council elections in May.

labdisaster

That’s odd because it’s a pretty significant vote, and could lead to some fairly seismic changes in how the country is governed. Despite losing the popular vote for the first time in 2012, Labour are still the dominant force in Scotland’s town/city halls, running almost twice as many of the country’s 32 local authorities (either in sole control or in coalition/minority administrations) as the SNP – 16 to nine.

Depending on the outcome in May, the Nats could either secure a grip on all levels of Scottish elected politics for the first time ever, or a Tory alliance with Labour as junior partners could keep most councils Unionist – something which could have all sorts of wider ramifications beyond local services. (That’s an article for another day.)

So the results below are pretty interesting.

Just before we get to them, a quick note on the stats. 83% of our respondents said they were “likely to vote” in the council elections – defined as rating your probability of doing so at either eight, nine or 10 out of 10.

It’s fairly stupendously unlikely that turnout will actually be anywhere near 83% – the figure in 2012 was 39.6%, and it only got to 52.8% even in 2007, when voters were at the polls anyway to vote in the Holyrood general election. So we’ve used the figures for “likely voters excluding Don’t Knows” in this post, because the chances are that in reality, people who don’t know who they’re voting for by now won’t vote at all.

(Full tables will of course be published on the Panelbase website shortly.)

These are the headline figures:

SNP: 47%
Conservatives: 26%
Labour: 14%
Lib Dems: 5%
Greens: 4%
UKIP 3%
Other: 1%

Click the images below to enlarge and see various demographic breakdowns.

council1

council2

council3

The bullet points are:

  • there are no significant differences between genders
  • older age groups swing away from the SNP to the Tories
  • but the SNP are still the most popular party even among the elderly
  • people born in Scotland, or anywhere outside the UK, love the SNP
  • Scottish residents born elsewhere in the EU really hate the Tories
  • but Scottish residents born in England are overwhelmingly Tory
  • almost 80% of 2014 Yes voters will vote SNP
  • 55% of Remain voters and 35% of Leave voters will vote SNP
  • the Tories are now more than twice as popular among 2014 No voters as Labour
  • 46% of Holyrood 2016 Labour voters now intend to vote for someone else

Make of all that what you will.

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  1. 14 02 17 13:57

    Kicking down the doors | speymouth

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    Five Things Polls Can Tell Us About How Scotland Feels About Independence After The Brexit Vote | MEDIAVOR

  5. 17 02 17 00:32

    New Wings Panelbase poll – Discourse.scot

318 to “Kicking down the doors”

  1. KJH says:

    Interesting to see that more than a third of Brexiteers will be voting SNP.

    Wonder if that’s more or less the same folk as the ‘three in ten Yes voters who voted Leave’?

    I’m aware of Leavers who say they’ll vote No in the next indyref, but if these figures are anything to go by, it assuredly hasn’t deterred them from voting SNP.

  2. Fergus Green says:

    The crucial bullet point is the last one. If 46% of Labour supporters change their votes, where will the votes go. I expect the Blue Tories to be the main beneficiaries of the Red Tories’ fluctuating vote, but surely the SNP can pick up enough of these to allow real change at council level.

  3. Iain Hamilton says:

    Going back a while to your piece about this being the most boring year in Scottish politics as the STV system will prevent a sea change in the makeup of local councils, do these figures still reflect that view.

    I hoped at the time you were wrong (although it doesn’t happen much).

  4. Marcia says:

    Lower turnout tends to help Tory candidates as the middle-class have a better turnout rate.

  5. I can see SNP. Winning good chunk in Dundee. Looking at areas and who won last time id be shocked if less than 20 seats on council.

  6. Iain Hamilton says:

    Happen *often*. Apologies to the grammar police 🙂

  7. Macart says:

    I’m thinking that electoral success in the council elections is the last domino in place but one.

  8. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “The crucial bullet point is the last one. If 46% of Labour supporters change their votes, where will the votes go.”

    Tsk. Flipping unalert readers. If you click on the charts you can SEE where they go – 19% to the SNP, 21% to the Tories, 1% Lib Dem, 2% Green, 3% UKIP.

  9. wull2 says:

    O/T, Please share the previous topic/videos with all your fiends on FB

  10. HandandShrimp says:

    It will be interesting to see if Kezia throws her lot in with Ruth and tries to prevent the SNP taking control of councils. Siding with the Tories has done nothing for Labour over the last 5 years but madness is repeating the same actions and expecting different results.

    If those results pan out the Unionist parties collectively don’t actually gather more votes than the SNP. I would anticipate that a fair few of the Green second choices might also go the SNP way.

    Campaigning is already underway in for the Council elections with SNP activists out leafleting and speaking people at the doors.

  11. Stormchase_King says:

    Agreed turn-out low based on prior voting patterns.

    This being said, the national conversation over the last 5 years has seen seismic changes.

    Difficulty for unionist voters is do they vote at all.
    If they don’t vote, those pesky Scotnats will get in. Can’t be having that.

    If they do vote – where?
    Labour – what exactly can they do? Westminster Toryism, Holyrood SNPism and Labour Townhall. A complex mix. Could Labour really make a difference. Look at North Lanarkshire – took them longer to upgrade half-a-mile of Wishaw high street than it took to build the M74 extension.

    Liberal – who?

    Tory – well that means austerity supermax. And we all remember Bathgate, Linwood, Irvine, Methil, Clydebank etc

    Interesting Times ahead.

  12. glasgow sheep says:

    Surely 1% for others is far too low given the preponderance of Independent candidates in local elections, especially in the North East, Argyle and Highlands?

  13. Johnny says:

    Some very interesting stuff here.

    Can basically only hope that the Tories are cannibalising their fellow Unionist parties to the extent that they don’t get enough support to be viable coalition parties in many instances.

    I must also say well done to those EU voters tho have identified the cause of their current uncertainty (the Tories). I wish it were that voters always blamed the right people for things in this way.

  14. Brian Powell says:

    My Dad told me of the time he rescued a man who was climbing the cliffs near where my Dad lived.

    The man had been spotted part way down the cliff so a number of rescuers went along. Though a rope was lowered the man stood rigid, not responding or talking, and made no attempt to take the rope.

    My dad climbed down attached the rope around the man and said. It’s OK now, look there a people holding at the top, we can go up, they will keep pulling.

    But the man’s eyes showed nothing happening, his hands holding rigidly to the rock, and after many attempts dad forcibly prised the man’s fingers open and he was pulled up.

    I guess you worked out where this was going before I finished, but still will say Scottish Labour remind me of that man, but I suspect nobody is going to help them.

    He was going nowhere, made no attempts to save himself, and would have clung there until he became exhausted and fell off.

  15. galamcennalath says:

    The STV system could skew things. It depends on how people use their 2,3,4th choice (if they express one).

    If every Unionist 1st voter puts another Union party 2nd, that could keep the SNP out.

    Most (all?) wards are 3 or 4 councillors. The SNP is virtually guaranteed one councillor per ward. They plan, as I understand it, to put up two councillors per ward. Getting a second elected if Unionists give their other options to each other, could be difficult.

    The SNP need majorities in councils to stop Unionist coalitions taking over. To get majorities, they need second councillors in some wards.

    Solution? Get all potential voters off their arses and voting! The Tories will try this, Labour can’t/won’t.

  16. Muscleguy says:

    Bad news for the Tories in the age ranges. Their support risks dying out. Pretty even splits for the SNP.

  17. Robert Graham says:

    who in their right mind would vote for a tory ,
    This care in the community really needs to be looked at urgently .

  18. Muscleguy says:

    @KJH
    I’m not surprised. For many Leave voters the impetus to vote that way is the same one which made them vote Yes and support the SNP. They want a change, they want a difference. They recognise the SNP are not an Establishment party. I reckon the vast majority will recognise that Independence in the EU trumps Brexit in the UK.

  19. schrodingers cat says:

    47% snp + 4% sg = 51% voting for indy parties

    Shame it isnt more

    gala
    Solution? Get all potential voters off their arses and voting! The Tories will try this, Labour can’t/won’t.

    agreed, like 2016, the labour voters are ost likely to not show up, for any reasons. the tories did get out their vote 64k more than in 2015. we need to get the snp vote out

    in trad labour heart lands is where i expect the snp to pick up the 2nd candidates, but in the trad libde/tory areas, getting 1 snp candidate per ward will be a success.

    whether we control any councils will be down to a single candidate either way. it will be close

    Solution? Get all potential indy voters off their arses and voting!

  20. Glesca Keelie says:

    Friend of my aquaintance who does face to face surveys, with a wee laptop, reckons 80%ish of intervuees are SNP. These are some of the questions being asked.

    Also, huge number don’t trust/believe MSM and shortbread TV.

    Glasgow S/E.

  21. HandandShrimp says:

    O/T

    A brief thought for Dennis Canavan – to lose one child is a tragedy, to lose four is grief beyond understanding. Our thoughts are with you.

  22. heedtracker says:

    46% of Holyrood 2016 Labour voters now intend to vote for someone else
    Make of all that what you will.

    As a pet psychiatrist, its probably too late now, but if SLab stopped being so nasty to everyone what used to vote for them…

    Wullie Young in Aberdeen ate my hamster, then he banned Scotland flags from Aberdeen and then he banned First Minister Alex Salmond too. Which of these are not true? Stuck, welcome to Aberdeen.

    Also, SLabour of Aberdeen city council have nearly finished another £100+million white elephant carbuncle right in what was once a really beautiful silver city of granite architecture. Its a giant office block in a slack office market, so no actual tenants except, wait for it, the Press and Journal, who got their lease on the cheap/secret and ofcourse are massive Wullie fans. Why P&J secret lease costs are secret, is also a Wullie Young secret.

    Future Sir Wullie, why are you pissing away another £100+million on a giant carbuncle that had lots of local opposition, and not say social services and housing for Aberdeen? He never says.

    If you think rude arrogant SLabour councils are shite across Scotland, Aberdeen’s really getting it bad.

  23. Arbroath1320 says:

    older age groups swing away from the SNP to the Tories

    Whilst not a great change is presently happening with regards to the older voter and their inexplicable reasoning to vote “anyone but SNP” there is, in my view, good news for the longer term.

    I know it aint much help just now but I thought it is important for us to remember for all the future “fights” we will have. The good news I am of course referring to is that as,sadly, the older generation die off a new grouping of “older generation” takes their place and this new grouping is not so averse to the SNP. In my view in 5 -10 years time the figures for the older generation may very well be a great deal better than they currently are all thanks to the younger “older generation” growing up. 😀

  24. Glesca Keelie says:

    galamcennalath says:
    14 February, 2017 at 1:46 pm

    The STV system could skew things. It depends on how people use their 2,3,4th choice (if they express one).

    I, a SNP door-knocker, have been asking people I talk to, as a extra for myself, if they know what STV is. No one, and I mean no one, knows how it works, or anything at all, about it.

  25. schrodingers cat says:

    Glesca Keelie says:
    STV, No one, and I mean no one, knows how it works, or anything at all, about it.

    unfortunately this is true, but unionists in NEF invariabley vote exclusively for other unionist parties in 2nd and 3rd choices

    as gala said

    we have to GOTV

  26. heedtracker says:

    BBC Scotland soft soap future Slab leader Wullie “don’t call me stupid” Young,

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-31025433

    “For two weeks, Aberdeen City Council finance convenor Willie Young’s declaration stood: “Abandoning the (Marischal Square) project would mean the council tax payer requiring to repay the developers over £100m in cancellation fees”.

    It came as protests grew over the scale of the project, amid fears it would block the view of the historic Marischal College and Provost Skene House.

    However, on Monday, BBC Scotland revealed there were no cancellation fees for the £107m project between Aberdeen City Council and Muse Developments.

    That begged the question why, on 11 January, did Mr Young say there was?”

    Because its Sir Wullie, Wullie can say whatever he likes, nae c__t turns out to vote in council elections any road.

  27. Dave McEwan Hill says:

    The crucial point is turnout. A concurrent independence referendum campaign will have a huge effect on this.

  28. Harry Hayfield says:

    At the 2012 local elections in Scotland, the Independents polled 12% of all first preference votes. Where are the Independents in this poll?

  29. Ken500 says:

    Just SNP/SNP. Stop councils wasting £Billions on grotesque projects the majority do not want. Properly funded essential services.

  30. heedtracker says:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-30717143

    “New Aberdeen city centre plan images to ‘alarm’ public”

    Its devastatingly hideous, Wullies carbuncle. But he did get away with lying about how his carbuncle would cost Aberdeen £100+bn, to not build and that’s SLabour, in their Scotland region.

  31. Remember that Municipal Elections traditionally have a low turnout. So Labour fiddling has a bigger impact. Lat’s all work for big turnout and a sweeping SNP Victory. No second choices this time.

  32. orri says:

    If the SNP only put up two candidates then both will get my vote followed by Green on the basis that there’s a chance that they might be genuinely pro-independence.

    There’s going to be a large quantity of “independents” ready to back the Conservative and Unionists official candidates. Davidson’s probably cursing her luck that the OO and loyalist leaning support are piling in against the SNP and independence at the moment. In some areas Labour were the choice for catholics and protestants alike. The stronger the support for independence gets the more foolish Davidsons reminder of the full title of her party will become.

    Some ex-Labour supporters simply won’t vote for her party. Lib Dems probably have a better chance of picking up votes in some areas.

    So sussing out genuine independents and those simply lying about their affiliations might be a key. Don’t attack the genuine independents interested in their community. If, however, you find and can prove that an independent either failed to get selected by or is a member of the C&UP it might be worth highlighting.

  33. Iain says:

    Muscleguy is right: with the age profile of its support, the unionist vote is the more vulnerable to natural mortality.(That may seem a morbid point, but being in the elderly bracket myself, I feel able to make it.)

    Curtice says that an aggregate of polls just now seems to show 47% yes, 53% No. That accords with a net movement to Yes of about 1%/ year since the referendum, which is what I have been anticipating – more younger voters with their notably greater favour for Yes coming into consideration, more middle-aged voters with their roughly 50/50 Yes/No slipping into the oldest age category, and the most intransigent No voters passing on. By 2020 the polls should be showing an even split of Yes/No (barring a deliberate plantation of something like 50,000 Tories). Hope there’s a good reason to delay indy2 till then.

  34. Les Wilson says:

    I guess labour will be touring the old folks homes again to get their proxy votes, by lies and sneaky tactics. Just sign there old girl, you are so nice!

  35. Mike says:

    The most significant factor is the STV voting system. With it the Cons and Lab tories can successfully deprive the SNP of council majorities by lending their second and third votes to each other.
    Something they have already done in local elections.

  36. Thepnr says:

    The figures amaze me as to how many swing voters there are since just last May. SNP have the best record of hanging on to their core vote retaining 84% of it, the “deserters being split pretty evenly between between the Tories 5%, Labour 4% and the Greens 4%.

    Next best at keeping their core vote are the Tories, though only 74% will vote for them again less than 9 months since the last time. Their deserters though are much more likely to have switched to SNP 11%, Labour 6% and Greens just 2%.

    The absolute shocker is Labour who in less than 9 months have managed to retain only 53% of their vote. As we all suspected the Tories have been the largest beneficiaries of this meltdown from Ultra Ex-Labour Yoons getting a massive 21% of ex-labour voters over to their side. Murdo and Ruthie True Blues to thank for that I guess.

    SNP haven’t done too badly though picking up 19% of the no longer Labour voter, no other party really matters, almost a straight split between Tories and SNP. The thing here though is that the SNP had picked up much of the low lying fruit from the Labour tree well before 2016 and I am hopeful that any further pickings will come over to the YES/SNP side. tRuthless has probably gathered all she can.

    I see potential in these numbers, especially with those from EU countries polling higher at 52% than those born in Scotland with Outside Europe right up there too at 49%. SNP are definitely winning the popular vote across all sections leaving others looking polarised.

  37. Christopher Whyte says:

    Thanks to the Single Transferable Vote, it’s nigh impossible to see how this is going to go.

    I support STV, but it makes predictions (particularly when Conservative/Labour are probably much more likely to lend each other second votes) about these elections very difficult to call.

    Amusingly, I think it’ll either be one of two extremes: the SNP will burst the dam, or it’ll end up a wrangled series of agreements that leave us with business as usual.

    Let’s hope for the former.

  38. Dorothy Devine says:

    Handandshrimp , I didn’t know what you were talking about so searched .

    Dear Lord . What a terrible ,terrible burden to carry.

  39. galamcennalath says:

    Glesca Keelie says:

    …asking people ….. if they know what STV is. No one, and I mean no one, knows how it works, or anything at all, about it.

    I sincerely hope iScotland gets its voting systems sorted out.

    First past the post, as at WM, is awful. Simply not democratic. You can become an MP with 25% of the vote, and parties can form a majority government with little more than 35% of the vote. Like so many things at WM, a throw back to ancient times!

    IMO only a proportional representation system can claim to be democratic. Ideally, there should be a local representation aspect, so a mixed system is deal.

    STV is not proportional. It’s also unusual.

    A quick scan down the table of ….

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Table_of_voting_systems_by_country

    …. shows that most countries opt for a party list system with districts with multiple seats. Usually a D’Hondt calculation delivers the PR aspect. Many are hybrids like Holyrood with FPTP and lists.

    I actually think the Holyrood system is a good compromise. My only reservation being how the lists are made up. I would make the lists from the best runners up in each party, so candidates who came second on the FPTP vote, got a second chance via lists. The ‘best’ runner up being highest on the list.

    Also, I wouldn’t have a second vote. I would use the totals from the FPTP for the list calculations.

    Squeeze out small parties? No, if they are serious, they can put up candidates in constituencies. It stops parties ‘sneaking in by abusing’ the list system.

    As for councils, I would use EXACTLY the same system as used in iHolyrood. Thus increasing understanding.

  40. Macart says:

    @HandandShrimp

    Just caught up with the story.

    Sincere condolences to Mr Canavan.

  41. orri says:

    The pensioner vote is about to be undermined when there’s a demand for those still working, because they can’t afford to retire quite yet, but receiving a private pension even if not the state one to be financially penalised. Why else publish figures showing some pensioners are better off than the average worker. The first line of the BBC article mentions the still working aspect that the headline doesn’t. It’s a prequel to them declaring that it’s a benefit after all and introducing means testing.

  42. hamish says:

    We have to get the vote out. Low turnout is the real threat. In my area (Argyll and Bute) we have loads of “Independent” and “Non-political” councillors. And a fair share of councillors aged over 80 !

  43. yesindyref2 says:

    “SNP: 47%”
    That’s the thing the SNP will know as well. If support was well over 50%, then the SNP could have afforded to try putting up a 3rd candidate in 4 seat wards, but as it is I guess most will have gone for the fairly safe 2 seats out of 4.

    Which means the SNP would have largely NOC majorities (if at all). Which means they would need to have the support of other councillors to form the administration. Which means in effect, Green or favourable Independents, which local parties would know about.

    Which means USING the STV vote beyond SNP 1/2.

    But I don’t think the SNP are clued up on this – so far. I did try locally. Failed.

    3rd or further preference votes are NOT EVEN LOOKED AT until the 1st and 2nd candidates voted for are either elected or rejected. You therefore do NOT vote against your preferred 1st, or 2nd, by making further selections.

  44. heedtracker says:

    Other Wullie “Don’t call me stupid” Young catastrofucks include, the Aberdeen city great Union Terrace Gairdens referendum, held because Wullie and chums couldn’t make their minds over whether or not to accept Sir Ian Wood’s offer, to actually pay Sir Wullie multi millions, to actually destroy what is still left of Sliver City Aberdeen completely.

    Councillor “Don’t call me stupid” Wullie decided instead,

    https://aberdeencity.gov.uk/CouncilNews/ci_cns/pr_utg_referendum_141211.asp

    Woohoo! Democracy,

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-17231447

    Voters back Aberdeen’s City Garden Project in referendum
    2 March 2012

    http://www.aberdeencity.gov.uk/CouncilNews/ci_cns/pr_referendum_020312.asp

    But wait, “Don’t call me stupid” Wullie didn’t like that ref result.

    or how STV spun it,

    https://stv.tv/news/north/300081-labour-highlights-problems-with-union-terrace-gardens-vote/

    Its only money, some ither c__ts money.

  45. GraemeR says:

    14% for Labour. They really are the dead parrot party.

    We should all never tire of reminding Duncy Hothersall of his statement on the Labour/Tory alliance during the first indyref. A prime example of hubris reaching up and biting you on the arse.-

    “Spending Tory money to win Labour votes makes me extremely happy. A win-win”

  46. Thepnr says:

    I should have said that the 11% of Tory voters from last May who now say they will now vote SNP is most likely as a result of Brexit.

  47. Robert Graham says:

    NO NO NO the system we are obliged to use at Holyrood is the most farcical ever it might look good in Theory but we are living with the actual result of using this system , how can a system that allows MSPs a seat who have well and truly rejected by the Electorate be right , its total bonkers ,
    And the best bit is we cant change it Westminster can , and we all know how that works out , it’s always NO whatever its NO .

  48. desimond says:


    The Tories are now more than twice as popular among 2014 No voters as Labour

    This is exactly why the forward thinking Kezia Dugdale has identified the fight should be all about a new Act of Union and a brand new Federal UK…no, no, listen..

    Come back….

    Please…

    Someone…

    Anyone..

    What odds of Kez being gone by Summer holidays?

    Scottish Labour has 2 choices here:

    Abandon Westminster and choose Independence
    or
    Abandon Scotland and become Captain Darling to Ruthies Melchett.

  49. galamcennalath says:

    The Rev may have 2nd preference votes for STV, however, this gives a hint …

    Holyrood this year. Unionist votes. Constituency % vote, followed by Party list % vote …

    Conservative 22.0 22.9
    Labour 22.6 19.1
    Liberal Democrats 7.8 5.2

    … although a different system from the council STV, you can see how people thought in terms of ‘second choice’. Although there would be some Unionist list votes for SNP & Greens, these figures above suggest Lab & LibDem inclined to give Tories a vote, while Tories unwilling to boost Lab & LibDem.

    I have little doubt we will see the same again, with the Tories benefiting most from STV.

  50. Derek hannon says:

    Only one question not being asked how much is immigration swaying your voting behaviour to wards a unionist vote by the way standing with a muslim on stage is going to lose you voters i know of many independed voters agonising over this issue of unfettered reffuges and immigrant the snp seemed to want

  51. yesindyref2 says:

    UKIP 3%. How sad there’s so many of them.

  52. heedtracker says:

    i know of many independed voters agonising over this issue of unfettered reffuges and immigrant the snp seemed to want

    Is that you, Wullie “don’t call me stupid” Young?

  53. Lenny Hartley says:

    derek hann on keep your intolerance to your self thanks, I would say Racissm however there are plenty of Scots who follow Islam.

    I for one would not be here without the skill, dedication and determination of a follower of Islam.

  54. Proud Cybernat says:

    “… i know of many independed voters agonising over this issue of unfettered reffuges and immigrant the snp seemed to want.”

    Aye – sure you do you swivel-eyed, honking bigot. Away and wash yer brain, laddie.

  55. schrodingers cat says:

    there will be a lower turn out for the local elections, there always is, but i believe it will still be higher than usual, id 40% range.

    labour wont be able to mobilise its supporters, that is certain, so the snp should pick up seats in their traditional heart lands

    the tories/libdem voters will be motivated to get out and vote, the fear of indyref2 will ensure that.

    the snp voters sat bac in 2016, thinking it was a done deal that the snp would win, aided and abetted by the bbc i would add, so they didnt show up in such large numbers in 2016 as in 2015

    it is imperative that the narrative of a huge tory win is spun to let the voters know that the local elections really are not a done deal.

    if the snp voters turn out in the normal local election numbers ie 30%, the tories will win big time and we will never hear the end of it.
    fact. GOTV

  56. Taranaich says:

    something which could have all sorts of wider ramifications beyond local services. (That’s an article for another day.)

    Would very much like to read such an article, hopefully soon. 🙂

  57. orri says:

    One of the original proposals for Holyrood was to cast a single vote and then have that used on the list. Not very independent friendly. Straight STV is just as bad. However adding STV to the regional vote might work as it’d allow voters for a particular party to actively select which candidates on the list they preferred.

    A slightly complicated method would be to allow voters to rank individual candidates until they can’t be bothered then parties. You could even mix them.

    For instance Candidate A, B, Party C, Candidate D, Party E and so on.

    You’d loose the joyful ability to slag of MPs as being unelected but gain protection against campaigns to persuade you to split your vote in regions where that’d be a losing strategem.

  58. Bob MACK says:

    Muslims ? I would have lost my right hand if it had not been for a Muslim surgeon.
    My son would be dead if not for a Muslim heart surgeon. I have one representing me in Westminster, and I voted for her.
    Shops, factories ,medicine, finance. The Muslim population is involved with them all.

    They are Scots and proud to be so.

    In all my years I have never been threatened ridiculed or insulted by any of my Muslin Scots brothers or sisters. Repeat .Never. I can’t say the same about my fellow Glaswegians

    You have joined the ranks of the scare story brigade my friend, Man up, and look at the facts. You are in more danger from your white Anglo Saxon buddies than you are from Muslims. Yet here you are, ready to hide under a table because a Muslim is in your neighbourhood.

  59. Proud Cybernat says:

    Hey Derek Hannon – some good news for you:

    “There’s no gentle way to put it: People who give in to racism and prejudice may simply be dumb, according to a new study that is bound to stir public controversy… Low-intelligence adults tend to gravitate toward socially conservative ideologies, the study found. Those ideologies, in turn, stress hierarchy and resistance to change, attitudes that can contribute to prejudice…”

    Have a read:

    http://archive.is/hX47W

  60. Capella says:

    Scottish residents born in England are overwhelmingly Tory

    I count 36 voting non-Tory and 27 voting Tory. Not overwhelming I would say.

    However, I’ve always considered the Tory Party as the secret English National Party. Sometimes they have a Scottish sounding leader to pretend to be inclusive – Macmillan, Douglas-Hume, Cameron. Theresa May can only sport a tartan suit.

    So it looks like straight choice between the Scottish National Party or the secret English National Party.

  61. Breeks says:

    It’s not a survey exactly, but I would really like to see a review and analysis carried out into the extent that a propagandised media can influence a vote.

    I suppose it would be a difficult and challenging subject to research, not least because the propaganda is everywhere, and you would have to keep people isolated from its influence. I think unionist TV and propaganda is THE massive elephant in the room.

    Issues like free prescriptions, bus passes, and local council issues do matter, but seem small issues by comparison with wall to wall propaganda distorting the narrative and manipulating the mainstream political agenda.

    I mean, whatever swing you might expect from a party making a big mistake, or in contrast doing something very well, I still reckon the power that issue has to swing opinions one way or another is dwarfed by the power of swing which the media can affect through its propaganda.

  62. Johnny says:

    Dave McEwan Hill @ 2:12pm:

    I think you are very right.

    I have been thinking about the timing of the calling of indyref 2 for a few weeks now.

    Initially, I thought the SNP might want to delay it till *after* the May elections. This was based on them perhaps being concerned about losing some voters who are No supporters (but think the SNP are competent, on the whole).

    But I then came to the conclusion that they stood to benefit if they called it before the council elections as this was likely to get SNP voters excited and more liable to turn out in support.

    I think the Tories would have preferred a normal, quiet, council election campaign but won’t be too irked if they can try and drive up some of their council election support of the back of it.

    Labour, I imagine, will be most frightened of indyref 2 being called before the elections as I think they stand to be the losers (as SNP and Tory turnout increases, it could be that their dispirited rump of supporters do not turn out. We will see).

    Anyway, reading your posts on here, I normally nod in agreement and I did so again. I think you’re right – turnout will be high if a referendum has been called or if people feel it is imminent.

  63. Proud Cybernat says:

    ” I would have lost my right hand if it had not been for a Muslim surgeon. My son would be dead if not for a Muslim heart surgeon.”

    And a lovely Muslim surgeon saved my wife’s life last year after she suffered a subarachnoid brain haemorrhage. I wonder, Derek Hannon, if any Muslim doctors/surgeons ever saved the life of any of your family or friends?

    Now take your rabid racism bullshit some place else.

  64. Dr Jim says:

    @Derek hannon

    Take your bigotry and racism and shove it back to your Ukip Tory Lab website where it’s welcome son

    This is Scotland

  65. Auld Rock says:

    Hi Guys. Can anyone explain to me how to use the SVT system and more particularly how to avoid the pitfalls e.g. winning the greatest percent but yet coming second?

    Cntact me at:- asterix[stop]says[stop]yes[at]gmail.com

    Auld Rock

  66. Thepnr says:

    It’s pretty obvious that both SNP and the Tories are going to do far better in terms on numbers of council seats won than in 2012.

    The +15% SNP and +13% Tory make this plain, Labour are doomed and will be forced into coalition with Tories in many areas to prevent the likely largest party the SNP from leading.

    Many believ the SNP are unlikely to gain control of many more of Scotland’s 32 councils than they have now but it’s not impossible. Things we can do:

    1. Get the vote out. SNP have 120,000 foot soldiers, many times more than the rest combined, all must play a part in getting potential voters to the station in the coming weeks.

    2. Educate our Independence supporters as to how the STV system works, they must vote for as many SNP Councillors as are on the list and NEVER give any preference to any Unionist candidate. Spend the money if need be, the SNP have got it. Every leaflet should have a short explanation of the importance of this simple rule of giving all SNP candidates a preference vote.

    3. Get other Independence supporting candidates onto your council rather than a Unionist bum filling the seat. That means giving Greens, Independents or any other flavour of party who would support SNP in forming a Council. You and your local party can help identify these people.

    Please don’t let what may be your own form of tribalism prevent the SNP from winning control of a council from the Unionists. Use every tactic you have as an individual voter to maximise their chances. Elect pro-Indy and not Yoons.

    Unlike Holyrood you can’t make a mistake and let someone in “by the back door” you can bar the door and prevent a Unionist getting in but your first two preferences will always come out ahead of your third. So you won’t spoil any SNP candidates chances only Yoons chances.

    We’re all serious about winning this next referendum, take every advantage you can get and winning control of as many of Scotland’s 32 councils is one of those advantages and it’s a big one. SNP Councils will be in charge of the ballot for starters.

    Leave all our prejudices at the entrance to the polling booth and vote for maximum effect on who will run Scotland’s councils for the next 5 years.

    This is just one more step on the road to our Independence.

  67. Luigi says:

    As fellow posters have already alluded to, a decent turnout is crucial, particularly for the younger age groups, which tend to favour SNP and Green.

    The risk is if SNP seem strong, some young uns may not bother to vote.

    The delicious possibility, however, is that the young ums may be so angry about BREXIT that they will grab this opportunity to give the Tories a good old kicking.

    Labour will have real difficulty getting their zombies out. After all, even brain-dead zombies have their limits. 🙂

    Turnout, it’s all down to turnout.

  68. starlaw says:

    The NHS would be in a sorry state without its Muslim employees
    Now about the council elections .. SNP wins at these elections will prove the perfect base from which to launch Indy2 . Control of the councils gives control over Council halls and the lampposts needed to get the message out, we had control of neither at Indy1 and suffered because of it.
    Getting the vote out is vital.

  69. Luigi says:

    The council elections may turn out to be a dress rehearsal for IndyRef 2.

    Shouldn’t be so, but I have a feeling that Ruthie and her minions may decide that her best chance depends on utterly destroying the Labour Party in Scotland (or finishing the job, as such). One way or another, the yoon parties have to mearge, or spend forever and a day out of power in Scotland. The Tories will soon hit a ceiling, and stay there for as long as some NO voters remain with Labour.

  70. Greannach says:

    A Scottish Muslim doctor saved my niece’s life four years ago. He’s now a family friend.

  71. Macart says:

    Just to be clear.

    If you believe in what Scotland can be as an independent, self governing nation. If you are willing to contribute toward that future, then I don’t care what your point of origin is.

    You are a Scot and welcome.

    Diversity… accept no substitutes. 🙂

  72. Dr Jim says:

    @ Derek hannon

    Rich white men told poor white men it was the black mans fault he was poor: Martin Luthor King

    Rich white men stole black men from their homes to work as slaves in the first place

    Today those same rich white men tell us it’s all the fault of the immigrants

    Those same rich white men bombed most of those immigrants out of their homes and countries in order to enrich themselves even further

    And all the time those rich white men who put us all in this position are the Feckin Banks, the Banks did it and you fell for the crap they told you about living beyond our means Ooh! Austerity! The banks stole our money chump then the government told you we had to pay for it, and you fell for it

    And now we have total numpties like you who don’t read or research anything except the Daily Mail or Express who believe what those same rich white men are selling you
    and I’ll just bet you hate Kafflicks or Proddys as well

    coz o yer brung upness

    I despair I really do!

    Political Alzheimers the blessing to all Unionist parties

    Apologies to regular folks that was my dander up again

  73. Sinky says:

    Part of the reason Ref1 was lost was down to lower turn outs in places like Glasgow and Dundee compared to the leavy suburbs in Edinburgh and Aberdeen.

    Labour run councils used run voter registration campaigns before elections Labour had a chance to win ans the newv SNP councils should take this on board as well as all pro Indy canvassers.

    During Council campaign try to get ALL SNP / Green supporters onto postal votes and registered if not on voters roll.

  74. Glamaig says:

    @yesindyref2

    ‘But I don’t think the SNP are clued up on this – so far. I did try locally. Failed.’

    They damn well should be. My branch is. Try taking it further up the food chain.

  75. Gaelstorm says:

    The only flyer I’ve received so far was from the tory. No policies, just vote against independence.

  76. orri says:

    Almost amusingly if it weren’t for people being out of jobs was the item about ex-oil workers unable to get jobs because the majority of prospective employers were of the opinion that they’d go back to the rigs when the industry picked up again.

  77. Capella says:

    Nicola’s dad Robin Sturgeon lost a by-election in Irvine through the STV system. He won first preference votes, but the second preferences gave Labour the win as Unionists backed Labour. However, turnout was only 20%.

    First-preference voting was: SNP 1,164, Lab 1,029, C 639, Soc Lab 131, Green 94, LD 48. Turnout was 20.9%.

    That is what will happen in May, i.e. Unionists will favour whichever party they think will beat the SNP. That might simplify campaigning for the SNP.

  78. yesindyref2 says:

    After a Scots specialist after tests told me there was no such thing as RSI it was carpal tunnel or tennis elbow, an Indian (no idea of his religion) told me it was RSI, if I worked a lot with computers I should get someone else to do the typing (I was freelance!), or do something else for a living, I did and am. No idea who or what nationality, creed, race or religion helped the kids through their emergencies like rota virus, finger hanging off, well-worn road to A&E at Inverclyde (great hospital).

    Anyway council, I wonder if we’re starting to see a decline in the Tory support. Should do with what they’re doing at Westminster.

  79. Proud Cybernat says:

    Doing the Day Job…

    http://imgur.com/a/KmwjW

  80. yesindyref2 says:

    @Glamaig
    I did a wee paper, with the method quoted from a scot.gov page, and an analysis how in 2012 an Indy supporting Independent in our ward would have got in rather than a Tory, one side of an A4 and really the only comment was I should make it shorter. Ho hum. I daresay it was filed in the round object. They’d actually even worked it out themselves! He’s not an SNP supporter, independent, but quite supportive at times. Clearly better than a Tory or Alex Gallagher.

    Further up the chain? A couple of times I’ve emailed further up about things, not even the courtesy of an acknowledgement. That’s quite a common problem apparently. But yes, I will try again, half a dozen or more probably.

    It would be good if the Rev would take a good look and do an article about STV. Not hinting vote Green and Ind after, just showing that there is no problem using all the preference votes in order.

  81. yesindyref2 says:

    THIS one deserves a direct link. It has this poll with credit to Wings Over Scotland.

    http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15091622.Poll_finds_support_for_Scottish_Labour_down_since_2012_council_elections/

  82. manandboy says:

    Rev Stuart Campbell – Scottish Hero

    Each evening, my wife takes an item of frozen food from the freezer to defrost for the following day’s evening meal. But these foods don’t all defrost at the same speed. Some take longer than others before they’re ready to cook.

    May I suggest that the Electorate in Scotland could profitably be understood in the same way. Traditionally conservative and mind-numbingly ‘frozen’ by decades in the ‘Unionist brainwashing freezer’, political ‘defrosting’ takes time, as we have already seen, and some need longer than others.
    We won’t talk about those who will still be ‘frozen solid in Unionism’ 20 years after Independence.

    However, events are moving quickly in the UK, in the EU, in the US and indeed around the world. By the Brexit clock, time is not on our side. Pressure.

    Leaving aside ‘It’s not the votes that count; but who counts the votes, ‘One thing is inevitable – when IndyRef2 comes, those as yet not defrosted will vote No, and if there are sufficient numbers still programmed to vote Unionist, then we shall have to go again. But we cannot stop. We cannot give in to the calls for IndyRef 2 to be the last chance for Scottish Independence.

    But by the same token, we simply MUST give IndyRef2 our MAXIMUM SELFLESS EFFORT. Forget ‘what’s in it for me’ for a wee while. After Independence will be time to get that sorted.

    Defrosting Scotland. Make it quick will you.

  83. Andy-B says:

    I really hope the SNP take Tammany Hall, aka Glasgow city chambers.

  84. Sinky says:

    More on BBC Bias.

    I have absolutely no time for Paul Nuttal or UKIP but BBC all over Nutcase’s remarks about friend killed at Hillsborough yet no BBC mention whatsoever of the mysogionist tweets from the Labour candidate in Stoke.

    https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/snell-talked-woman-needing-good-slap/

    These old tweets are much worse than Neil Hay’s but contrast the different treatment in the media.

  85. yesindyref2 says:

    That Herald story has gone up from 28th to 12th on the Herald’s “Popular” list on the RHS of the main page. In 5 minutes flat. Sorry, 11th while I was typing this.

  86. Meanwhile, Kezia as always is posted missing; this time in London talking federalism pish and a New Act of Union which the leader she didn’t back, Jezza Corbyn, says won’t happen.
    Labour Branch Office have 11 weeks to save their bacon.
    Dugdale to resign to spend time with her tulips, and Anas to step in to steady the sinking ship? Glug, glug.
    In the passing of 18 months to Indyref 2, Mother Nature will play a significant part. Old Fogies like me will reduce in number, while a stream of bright eyed outward looking youngsters will join the 16-18 year olds who overwhelmingly see their future in an Independent Scotland, a member of the EU. With God on our side.
    The race is done, the race is won.

  87. Dr Jim says:

    o/t but quick

    I’ve just been reading an argument about Waitrose food packaging labelling stuff as British and sticking the Union flag on when it’s in fact New Zealand lamb
    and the Yoonsters are actually standing by this, their argument being that New Zealand lamb is in fact British because the sheep originally came from England

    Origin of the species will have to be completely rewritten now

  88. yesindyref2 says:

    OT
    @Dr Jim. A quick google:
    The history of the domesticated sheep goes back to between 11000 and 9000 BC, and the domestication of the wild mouflon in ancient Mesopotamia. Sheep are among the first animals to have been domesticated by humans, and there is evidence of sheep farming in Iranian statuary dating to that time period.

    LOLZ

  89. HandandShrimp says:

    and the Yoonsters are actually standing by this, their argument being that New Zealand lamb is in fact British because the sheep originally came from England

    and the Turkey I ate at Christmas wasn’t Scottish after all..it was American.

    🙂 🙂 🙂

  90. Clootie says:

    I can understand people moving between political parties where a great deal of overlap exists e.g. Between Green and SNP.

    However I still struggle to understand Labour voters moving to UKIP and the Tories. What possible thought process triggers that journey?

    …I cannot understand why people vote for the LibDems apart from sympathy.

    If any ex–Labour now Tory reader could enlighten me I would appreciate the time. It cannot be as simple as Red Tory becoming Blue Tory? You cannot detest the SNP to the extent you prefer a Tory to that party surely?

    If you turn to the Tories for ANYTHING you were in the wrong party all your life.

  91. Bill says:

    “It’s a huge shit sandwich and we’re all going to have to take a bite” – Full Metal Jadket

  92. Clootie says:

    HandandShrimp

    …by that rationale we are all Africans! That should solve the immigration question.

  93. Bill says:

    New Zealand Lamb.

    I was privileged to meet some ex New Zealand lamb farmers, here’s the gist of what they said.

    “GB can go f**k themselves, we were dumped after the common market, wrecked out businesses and bankrupted some….”

    Now that’s a trade agreement I’d love to see unravel, *gets popcorn*.

  94. David Mccann says:

    The messaage is clear. In Council elections its SNP 1.2.3.

  95. manandboy says:

    Which reminds me. Kez and Ruth both speaking recently at London Uni’s on the same wk-end, about Scottish issues. Go on, tell me they’re not working for the same agent.

  96. Hamish100 says:

    Better in 4 candidate wards for 3 SNP candidates to stand. Helps reduce the tendency for a 3rd vote to go to elsewhere. Problem I’ve heard in many electoral areas is that sitting Councillors look on a 3rd candidate as their enemy/ competitor so they stay in their cushy job in place of putting the party 1st. SNP will lose out on certain council control as so called independents ie Tories will work with labour and anyone else. Interference by some MSP’s as well are causing problems unfortunately over selection. HQ should review their procedures as there is still time.

  97. manandboy says:

    Clootie says:
    ” You cannot detest the SNP to the extent you prefer a Tory to that party surely?”

    Believe it. Just put hate and rage in the same pot and simmer for a while. Then vote Tory? It’s not difficult.

  98. yesindyref2 says:

    The reason for this by the way is that I think a fair few people browsing around media sites look at that panel of the popular articles, and maybe pay special attention to the top 5 – it’s what I do. It was up to 9th and has struggled up to 8th but the article has also risen on the main page itself. It’s free advertsing second line in “A Panelbase poll of 1,028 voters for pro-independence website Wings Over Scotland found …”. Perhaps the best way is to go to the main herald page and click on the article there or in the popular panel.

    Meanwhile what a load of waffle, and I’m off soon because – it’s Valentine’s!

  99. Hamish100 says:

    Indyref 2

    Why is it better to get an independent elected – who stands against the SNP and talks against the SNP than another SNP candidate?

    Are the sitting candidates got no ambition to get a 3rd SNP candidate elected? Too many Councillors are in too many comfy seats

  100. yesindyref2 says:

    @Hamish100
    “Splittng the vote”. The local branch know to get people in ine area to vote for one candidate, and in another the other candidate, so as to equalise them. Some voters also like one candidate and will vote for them, but leave the rest of the sheet blank. The thinking is that putting up a third could mean only 1 getting elected not 2. Apparently there are algorithms for this. I tend to agree with them – it needs over 50% in that ward of 4 councillors for instance, to consider it.

  101. Andy-B says:

    O/T

    Thatcher wannabe Ruth Davidson, in London saying that the SNP, will yell lies over Brexit. She compares them to Gove and Johnson, and the lies on the big red bus.

    Gove and Johnson are her party, ergo the Tories are liars.

    http://www.thenational.scot/news/15089780.SNP_want_to_weaponise_Brexit__says_Scottish_Conservative_leader_Ruth_Davidson/?ref=mr&lp=12

    So to recap tank girl is calling her own Tory party liars, but the bottom line is SNPBAD.

  102. yesindyref2 says:

    @Hamish100
    Don’t get me wrong. There will be 4 seat wards around Scotland where the SNP could put up 4 – and get 3 or 4 elected.

  103. Reluctant Nationalist says:

    @ Muscleguy

    “They recognise the SNP is not an establishment party.”

    __________________

    ‘We talked of a violent contest which was then carrying on, with a view to the next general election for Ayrshire; where one of the candidates, in order to undermine the old and established interest, had artfully held himself out as a champion for the independency of the county against aristocratick influence, and had persuaded several gentlemen into a resolution to oppose every candidate who was supported by peers.
    “Foolish fellows!” said Dr. Johnson, “don’t they see that they are as much dependent upon the peers one way as the other? The peers have but to oppose a candidate, to ensure him success. It is said, the only way to make a pig go forward is to pull him back by the tail. These people must be treated like pigs.”

    From ‘The life of Samuel Johnson LL.D.‘ (1791) by James Boswell
    ___________________

    Just for those here in BTL who I’ve seen become incredulous when they notice the Conservatives’ arrogant treatment of the SNP sometimes seems to be assisting the cause for independence more than harming it.

    Me? I have no idea. Let me be played with in a porcine manner, I’ll sink my teeth in after independence.

  104. Stoker says:

    WOS archive links now over on O/T.

  105. Robert Peffers says:

    @Clootie says: 14 February, 2017 at 5:48 pm:

    ” … It cannot be as simple as Red Tory becoming Blue Tory? You cannot detest the SNP to the extent you prefer a Tory to that party surely?”

    I’ve explained it on Wings many, many times, Clootie.

    Westminster is a sham and it always has been. The term, “The Establishment”, is the clue. Just listen to them as they talk and read what they write and the same things get repeated over and over again.

    They claim to be the, “British Parliament”, but are actually not the parliament of Britain as there is a Republic and three non-UK Government Crown, (NOT Westminster), dependencies. They repeat incessantly that they are a country but there are four distinct countries in the United Kingdom and another four non-UK countries in Britain.

    In truth The Westminster Establishment is now running itself openly as the parliament of the country of England and treating the other three UK countries as belonging to the country of England.

    This thing is like a big family – the family members will fight like ferrets in a poke but let anyone attempt to pick a fight with any big family member and they take on the entire family who will defend each other to the death.

    It is the stuff that family feuds are made of.

    We used to see this among the Scottish Highland Clans. Who fought each other but would mass together against the invaders be they Viking, English or whatever.

    We saw the same with the large powerful extended families in the Scottish Borders and when Scotland became a unified country we had the likes of Clan Campbell and the Douglas families standing behind their Scottish Kings.

    So there it is – Conservative, Labour and LibDems are all members of the Westminster Establishment and will fight with each other when there are no threats to the Establishment.

    After all no matter which Establishment party is in power the other two parties still have their snouts in the same trough and they will operate a, “Buggins Turn”, system, (promotion by seniority or rotation rather than on merit), to even things out.

    Then along comes the SNP and not only opposes the Establishment but takes the heart of the Labour Party country out of the equation and the Westminster Unionist parties stand shoulder to shoulder against the common foe.

    Thing is that when they do the normal rules no longer apply and they can call upon the other parts of the Establishment to join the front line – The HOL, The Church, The Law, Education and Civil Service top brass – not to mention the Police, Security Services and the, “Defence”, Forces.

    We don’t just take on the three Unionist parties we stand against, “The Establishment”.

  106. yesindyref2 says:

    Top article on H page now, and 5th most popular. Good stuff, I’m off before being cut off in my prime!

  107. Thepnr says:

    Hamish there can be a problem when having 3 candidates in a 4 seat ward and that is in the order the preference votes are given and who they are given too between the three same party members. You might then only get 1 elected never mind 2 or 3!

    See “Under – and Over – nomination” Page 10

    “Meanwhile, at the other end of the spectrum, the SNP undoubtedly overestimated its strength in the Govan ward in Glasgow, where the party nominated three candidates whose combined first preference tally amounted to no more than 1.63 times the quota.

    However, it is far from clear that the failure of a second SNP
    candidate to be elected was caused by this apparent over-nomination.”

    https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/sites/default/files/2012-Scottish-Local-Government-Elections.pdf

  108. geeo says:

    Saw this on Facebook and it made me smile.
    ……

    Nicola Sturgeon invited Archbishop of Canterbury for lunch on her yacht, the Archbishop accepted and during lunch, a puff of wind blew the Archbishop’s hat right into the water.

    It blew off about 50 feet, then the wind died down and it just floated on top of the water.
    The crew and the secret service were scrambling to launch a boat to retrieve it, when Nicola waved them off, saying “Never mind boys, I’ll get it.”

    Nicola climbed over the side of the yacht, walked on the water to the hat, picked it up, walked back on the water, climbed back into the yacht, and handed the Archbishop his hat.

    The crew was speechless, the security team, and the Archbishop’s entourage were speechless.
    No one knew what to say, even the Archbishop.

    That afternoon, SKY, BBC, Daily Mail, Telegraph, Daily Express all covered the story.

    Their banner headlines read: “STURGEON CAN’T SWIM!”

  109. alexicon says:

    yesindyref2 says:
    14 February, 2017 at 4:53 pm
    THIS one deserves a direct link. It has this poll with credit to Wings Over Scotland.

    Peter, The daily hate is also covering it, but managed not to mention wings in the article.
    I wonder why.

  110. Luigi says:

    Given the importance of these council elections to IndyRef 2 (make no mistake about that), what would be really handy would be an online Indy Guide to the Scottish Council Elections, listing each ward and detailing the best way to arrange your votes in order to dampen, or even neutralise the effects of tactical voting by yoons, on a case by case basis (or ward by ward)
    .
    If we had such information, activists could then go to the doorsteps in their patch, and advise people exactly what to do and who to vote for, in what order, to damage the yoon parties as much as possible (something that many people would like to do). Ach it’s not rocket science, but sometimes STV is a wee bit tricky and some guidance would be appreciated. There are different numbers of SNP/Green candidates in some wards, independents and all sorts of yoon formats. Treat each ward on a case by case basis, and develop a local voting strategy for activists to promote.

    At the end of the day, however, it’s turnout that will determine many outcomes. Therefore:

    Get the vote out, and we are more than halfway there. 🙂

  111. manandboy says:

    It is very easy to forget to water your indoor plant pots. Keep forgetting and your plants will die.

    Democracy is like that, it too can die, if it is not taken care of. In the UK, democracy has been neglected for quite some time. But right now, it is in deep trouble. Why? Because the Tories have no need for it and don’t want it. The Tories have begun to water a new plant – its name is dictatorship.

    With Labour disintegrating, there is no effective opposition in Westminster, nor is there any real opposition in the Media, and what there is is threatened with 14 years in jail for disclosing information the Government wishes to keep secret – even about the economy. Add on Brexit and the demolition of European Human Rights legislation, and you have exactly the conditions in which a dictatorship can flourish. It is happening in the UK as we speak.

    Is it being noticed? Well, actually, no. At least not much. Not enough people are paying attention to Democracy, hence the reason why it is disappearing. Like a neglected pot plant, it is withering, and if we are not careful, it will soon be dead.
    Oh, it will still be there, a dried out stem and some shrivelled branches, but it will be dead. Unable to produce any of the fruits of democracy. You know the ones, like Freedom and Justice. The Tories are marching to remove these from the population, starting with the weak. You must have noticed, surely?

    If the Tories continue to have their way unopposed, in a few years Brexit will be the least of the UK’s worries.

    Independence. Now an absolute necessity for Scotland. Before the deportations begin.

  112. shiregirl says:

    HandandShrimp says:
    14 February, 2017 at 2:02 pm
    O/T

    A brief thought for Dennis Canavan – to lose one child is a tragedy, to lose four is grief beyond understanding. Our thoughts are with you.

    My thoughts also – sincere condolences to Dennis Canavan. When you read about tragic stuff like this, political beliefs are put to one side.

  113. Thepnr says:

    Your looking at a list right, in the polling booth all the information is there regarding name & party represented.

    To keep it simple:

    1. Vote for ALL the names on the list of your preferred party.

    2. Vote also for those you DEFINITELY know are pro-indy supporters.

    3. Vote for NO ONE ELSE.

    That’s it in a nutshell if you want to maximise the number of councils controlled by the SNP.

    Keep OUT the Unionists, Vote IN the pro-indy supporters who will back an SNP council.

  114. Clydebuilt says:

    Two important points to get out to SNP voters

    1. They have got to get out and vote.

    2. They should only vote for the SNP and must not give 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc
    preference votes to any other party.

  115. Clydebuilt says:

    My thoughts are with Dennis Canavan and his family at this terribly difficult time………..

  116. Cal says:

    Would I be right in saying that the numbers in brackets are the actual numbers of people in each category who were polled and the numbers not in brackets are the theoretical number of people in each group after a weighting adjustment? If that’s the case how is the weighting applied? How do they know how many of each group there actually are in the population? For example, after weighting it would appear 9% (93 people) of the population were born in rUK. How do they know that? If that’s the correct figure how come nearly twice as many rUK people (178 people) took part in the survey than their population share would warrant? Reducing the 178 down to 93 is a serious bit of weighting adjustment is it not? That’s got to introduce a fair degree of inaccuracy.
    There’s also a fair bit of up weighting of B2CD people at the expense of ABC1s. It looks like the kind of people who do polls are wealthy and from south of the border. Interesting.

    Some other thoughts:

    The Tories have got a serious imbalance across the age spectrum – nearly twice as many oldies support them as youngsters. They truly are the party of the old.
    Support for all the other parties is fairly evenly spread by comparison. Could this be the reason why the Tories are so popular among people from rUK? Many many people from south of the border are retired and have moved up to take advantage of the bargain basement house prices (relatively speaking) and high quality of life and health services we enjoy here. It would be fascinating to see an age profile of the rUKsample in this poll. Is that possible Rev? Actually, it would interesting to see an age profile for all the groups in this poll.

  117. Orri says:

    First thing I thought of when I saw this poll was this.

    youtu.be/eZHCrPE9n_g

    The lyrics kind of fit.

  118. Thepnr says:

    One last thing I’d like you to think about is why it is so hard to win 1 council never mind 32. Each party is only standing so many candidates in any ward.

    If you stand 2 candidates in a 4 party ward and both win then you still only have 50% of the Councillors from that ward.

    In other words unless you are in a particularly strong SNP area then to win your council you will need the support of others, be they Green or Independents or whatever.

    You can be sure the Unionist Lib/Lab/Con will be lining up against the SNP on any council in order to help thwart Independence. You can help prevent that.

    Use your noggin. Seriously, give the SNP their best chance of running a council and that is by electing a pro-Indy Councillor in the place of a Unionist one by giving them your 3rd or 4th preference vote!

  119. Tinto Chiel says:

    Slightly O/T, but it does involve Labour councillors.

    Don’t watch STV at home, but have just seen its reporting of the Lothian Collapsing Schools Scandal in a neighbour’s house.

    Not a cheep about PFI or the role of BLiS______D in commissioning these dangerous and expensive buildings.

    No comment sought from the SG, of course. Nothing from El Gordo, strangely either.

    Then some nice Aberdeen Unionist lady gets to spout misleading stats. about teacher numbers and then attacks the SG. Don’t local authorities run education provision in their areas?

    Honest John Swinney does not get the chance to reply, despite having been interviewed earlier.

    And people think STV is any better than Vichy Vision?

    Dream on!

  120. Dr Jim says:

    If you vote in an Independent the first thing that happens is the Labour party offer a bung to support them and the Tories offer sweet things to come to back them

    The SNP offer nothing they don’t work like that because it always comes out in the end by which time it’s too late the damage is done

    Vote SNP and take back control!
    Heard that before somewhere

  121. Still Positive says:

    Liugi @ 6.46

    Was at my local SNP meeting last night and we are standing 2 candidates in 2 wards and 3 in another – my ward.

    At one end of the ward we have to vote 1 A, 2 B 3 C. At the other end it is B A C.

  122. Hamish100 says:

    Thpnr

    elect a pro indy councillor who stands against the SNP at the hustings?

    Just because they say they are pro indy doesn’t mean they are. If they are so pro indy wouldn’t they be in the greens or other even the SNP.

    My point is the 2 snp councillors are happy to be reelected quids in. Still means there are 2 non snp councillors in that ward. Will the so called indy be bought off with a committee to chair? Oops maybe that’s what the agreement is already.”Sup with the deil”.

  123. Tom Platt says:

    It is clear that the local branches of “Scottish” Conservatives, aka The Secret English Party are, for their own reasons, wanting to convert the local elections in May into elections on independence. SNP, Scottish Greens and the other pro Indy parties including Labour for Independence, if there are any standing, might want to do the same. I hope that they do, although it might be akward for the national party leaders to be part of this.

    If local party workers can speak to the need for SNP and other Indy party votes to continue to increase (Westminster 2015, then Holyrood 2016, then local 2017) to maintain the Indy momentum it might help boost the turn out.

    Questions do need to be asked though as to why “Scottish” branches of Westminster parties are even standing in Scottish local elections. What is their secret agenda?

  124. Orri says:

    In theory the way STV is meant to work is that you set a quota at the total number of votes cast and as soon as someone has more than that total of votes they’re elected and a proportional of their excess votes redistributed to the next preferences. If the voters are completely aware of how the system works they could all vote for the first candidate of the party they prefer and list the rest as second, third and so on.

    Unfortunately some voters might forget or be persuaded only to vote 1 and 2 either through a genuine missunderstanding or by directed to do so. It doesn’t help that one example on the Electoral reform page explaining STV shows a vote being passed through all three parties before returning to other candidate from the first preference candidate. Realistically, at least in the early days, there’s a risk of losing votes due to incomplete or mistakenly filled ballots.

  125. Albert Herring says:

    @Luigi

    That’s known as the “Voter Management Strategy”.

    Don’t worry, we’re on it.

  126. Thepnr says:

    @Hamish100

    In my ward there is an Independent Councillor who is very popular in the area because he fought against the closure of a local primary school! He has every chance of being elected agian but might not be.

    You see he was an SNP Councillor when he fought against this closure but they decided to go ahead anyway, the SNP Council that was. So he resigned from the SNP and became an Independent.

    In the end the school did stay open but that Councillor is absolutely pro-Indy just this time he will have to stand on on his own s an Independent. He will be getting my third vote after the 2 SNP candidates in the same ward, that’s for sure.

  127. Rock says:

    “but Scottish residents born in England are overwhelmingly Tory”

    And for sure, overwhelmingly No to independence.

    And highly unlikely to ever change their minds.

    Every minute and every penny wasted on trying to convince them would be better spent on trying to convince someone in the housing schemes to go out and vote Yes.

  128. galamcennalath says:

    Bill says:

    New Zealand lamb farmers … “GB can go f**k themselves, we were dumped after the common market, wrecked out businesses and bankrupted some….”

    My mate in NZ says the same. They have built up trade links with Asia, and feel the UK has a bloody cheek coming crawling back after all these decades. He says the Ozzies feel the same.

    I have never heard anything (I would believe) positive about Brexit. It’s going to be lose, lose, lose.

  129. Thepnr says:

    Whats the difference between an Independent that supports or even say they support Independence and a Tory, Liberal or Labour Councillor? I’m sure you could all answer that one.

    No? Well ones a certain Unionist the other isn’t.

  130. Rock says:

    schrodingers cat,

    “47% snp + 4% sg = 51% voting for indy parties”

    Would the Greens support SNP budgets at the council level?

    No, they would hold the SNP to ransom at every opportunity.

  131. Jock McDonnell says:

    O/T while things are bubbling nicely, we shouldn’t forget there are potential bumps in the road, what McMillan called events. They are mostly unknowns of course but some can be guessed at.
    Undermining of EU by UK establishment & media
    Global economic shocks
    Wars
    Autonomy struggles elsewhere
    Some of these may not favour the yoons of course but either way, hopefully our guys are prepared for the known unknowns.

  132. galamcennalath says:

    Worth a recap of 2012. That was when the LibDems took their first big knock.

    Scottish National Party 32.33% / +4.48 … 425 / +62
    Labour 31.39% / +3.26 … 394 / +46
    Conservative 13.27% / ?2.35 … 115 / ?28
    Independents 11.78% / +1.27 … 196 / +12
    Liberal Democrats 6.62% / -6.05 … 71 / -95
    Green 2.31% / +0.11 … 14 / +6

    Polls would imply the SNP and Tories will make gains, Labour will be badly hit.

  133. Breeks says:

    Robert Peffers says:
    14 February, 2017 at 6:31 pm
    @Clootie says: 14 February, 2017 at 5:48 pm

    “We don’t just take on the three Unionist parties we stand against, “The Establishment”.

    Aye, that’s the truth of it. And it’s precisely because that Establishment couldn’t get any purchase over Europe for 40 years that the U.K. has been so wrecklessly brought to the point of Brexit. It has nothing to do with UK sovereignty, commerce or even xenophobia, but everything to do with the UK having to be ordinary, and merely one among equals.

    The UK and Westminster’s part in it, is an anachronism, an unholy constitutional non-starter and dogs breakfast which has somehow survived for three centuries, shored up by the privileged select with the power and connections to pull strings.

    They hate the SNP for the same reason they hate Europe. We represent the cold frontier to their influence. We are outsiders, never part of the whole; fit only for subjugation or contempt and rejection for those who reject subjugation.

    This isn’t merely a quest for independence for Scotland, it’s whether Scotland can step into the modern world with a bespoke sovereign constitution fit for a country of honourable upright people the 21st Century, or see itself dragged back to the shade and darkness where the rules were cobbled together in ignominy by the constitutional crooks of the 17th and 18th Century, back when it was considered your patriotic duty to flatten lesser cultures and plunder their worth for the good of the privileged few elevated to high office in Empire.

    Independence is our Rubicon, the river we must either cross to go on, or turn around and go backwards. There is no choice to be made. We must go on, because there is nothing for Scotland in the joyless deluded shambles of the United Kingdom where we, like every other outsider, are routinely held in lowly contempt.

    To coin a familiar phrase, we can rise now, and be a Nation again. Let us bring this tragic Union to a long overdue conclusion.

  134. George Wood says:

    People seem to advocating voting for anybody as long as they are pro-indy. The problem is you have to live with the consequences of doing that.
    In Edinburgh & Lothians, that presumably means voting for the Greens after your SNP candidates. The problem is that the Green pressure group increases which means hell for the driver and disaster for the environment.
    Edinburgh, because of bad policies such as bus lanes and 20 mph speed limits is becoming way more polluted than it should be.
    Slowing traffic down unnecesarily and/or impeding it’s flow unnecesarily is not Green.

  135. Robert Graham says:

    TInto Chiel yeah noticed that report, it’s getting bloody farcical now when news organisations actively engage in removing relevant information from a news item it’s not a comment item it’s supposed to be news, STV being leaned on before the council elections, they don’t give a f/k if they are found out who’s to stop them, are the MSM going to cover any of it not a bloody chance.

  136. gerry parker says:

    @still positive.
    Branch meetings. Lucky you!

    Our branch is still suspended and HQ tell us we need 20 signatures from members in the ward to get a nomination. Very difficult if there are no branch meetings to canvass support.

    Like to hear from any members in Ward 10 ( Coatbridge south) or anyone who knows a member in Ward 10 willing to back a nomination.

  137. Thepnr says:

    @George Wood

    That’ll be me George then. Independence is far more important than bus lanes to my mind.

    First I’ve heard mind of the Greens being a “disaster” for the enviroment. Seems to go against the grain.

  138. mike cassidy says:

    The official New Zealand position re brexit

    http://archive.is/RvVos

    What was said after a meeting with May.

    http://archive.is/9AKXJ

    New-Zealand-based Brexit blowback!

    http://archive.is/pwjms

    And the ultimate NFU nightmare New Zealand style.

    http://archive.is/JIyvq

    ” The economy was tanking when, in 1985, a new government set about major economic reforms, sweeping away agricultural support. The aim was to expose the New Zealand economy to international competition. Freed from the distraction of subsidies, farmers focused on the market once more. They looked to science and technology to improve productivity and increase profitability. “

  139. Liam says:

    “Scottish residents born elsewhere in the EU really hate the Tories”

    That’ll be me then.

  140. Cuilean says:

    Auld naw voters denied their country’s liberty in 2014. independence.

    Circa 55,000 Scots die per annum.

    Circa 81% of those are over 65 years old i.e. 44,550

    In 5 years from 2014 to 2019, 222,750 of our pension worrying 65 year olds will have shuffled off their mortal coil.

    Time is on our side nawbags.

  141. Liz g says:

    Gerry Parker @ 8.21
    Asking now…..My friends are in the branch that’s suspended but I don’t know if it is the right ward!!!
    Will let you know!

  142. heedtracker says:

    Time is on our side nawbags.

    Makes you wonder if the SLab yoofs are thinking YES now.

    Scott Arthur Retweeted
    The Scotsman ?@TheScotsman 23h23 hours ago
    More
    Kezia Dugdale: Federal UK would fix ‘failure of politics’ reflected in support for independence

    Oh.

    If

    you’re

    in

    a

    hole,

    keep

    digging, Dr NO!

    Con: 26%
    Lab: 14%
    Lib Dem: 5%
    Green: 4%
    UKIP 3%

  143. Ghillie says:

    That poll sounds promising to me = )

  144. gerry parker says:

    Liz g, many thanks.

  145. Hamish100 says:

    Thepnr says:
    14 February, 2017 at 7:52 pm
    Whats the difference between an Independent that supports or even say they support Independence and a Tory, Liberal or Labour Councillor? I’m sure you could all answer that one.

    No? Well ones a certain Unionist the other isn’t

    You cant say that for certain. One thing they aint. SNP

  146. K1 says:

    Can someone (Cuiliean) or anyone else provide a similar breakdown of those who have entered ‘voting age’ since 2012 local elections. And what the statistical significance of that is, if any? If we can get the ‘young team’ turning out this would be a real boon come May.

    Also as Cuillean just did to work out the new batches of voters turning 16 in the interim between 2014 and indyref2 possibly 2019? What were the percentages of Yes voting youngsters during indyref1 and could there be a ‘potential’ explosion of young people far more ‘clued’ up than those in that ‘grouping’ pre indyref1? Therefore more inclined to vote yes right from the get go?

    If as Cuillean’s stats show that the No voting percentages of the over 65 group ‘diminish’ between 2014 to 2019. For obvious reasons. Just really for comparison would like to see the ‘increase’ of potential yessers from the 16-18 group if possible.

  147. Liz g says:

    Cuilean @ 8.30
    That’s horrible….Go find the numbers for new 16 year olds,that will be mair in yer line,and stop being so nasty.

  148. Steve says:

    We also need voters to vote 1 on the second SNP candidate in the ballet paper and 2 on the first candidate, as most people just vote 1 on the first candidate and 2 on the second, which will end up with the first getting far more than he requires and the second not getting elected.

  149. Liz g says:

    Gerry Parker
    Sorry they can’t help ….You apparently were in touch with them on Friday.

  150. Genem says:

    Get the voters out – quite right, but lets make sure they are OUR voters. It needs a canny campaign to attract the existing SNP vote and as many former Slab voters as possible without also firing up Tory voters, concerned about seeing all those SNP canvassers. Leave them alone in their misery and ignorance, don’t waste time and effort arguing with them if they are already on the canvass sheet as Tory ?

  151. Thepnr says:

    @Hamish100

    I know the Independent is not SNP. The point is to get the two SNP elected and another that will support the SNP to lead the council. That Indpendent or Green or SSP or any other name is not a Unionist. They are not the Lib/Lab/Con coalition that is sure to be formed.

    Do you really want an SNP Council in your area? Use common sense and elect ANYONE EXCEPT A UNIONIST!

  152. Breeks says:

    George Wood says:
    14 February, 2017 at 8:18 pm
    …. The problem is that the Green pressure group increases which means hell for the driver and disaster for the environment….

    Now I’ll admit I find myself in Edinburgh much less frequently, but I was once a regular commuter to Edinburgh, and around the time of Edinburghs park and ride schemes, I remember going from a journey time of around 15 minutes to travel from the Sheriffhall roundabout right into the centre of Edinburgh, but over a short space 3 or 4 years, there were more and more traffic lights and crossings added, at the new hospital at Little France, and at various other points along that route until the same journey was taking closer to 45 minutes.
    As I recall, the anger at the time was nothing to do with the Greens, but everything to do with a certain Councillor David Begg, who seemed to have declared war on the motor vehicle. Not only was your journey time greatly extended, but parking became a near impossibility, enforced with ruthless efficiency by over zealous traffic wardens with daily quotas of parking tickets to be issued.

    The perception I formed in my head was that Edinburgh was contriving traffic congestion to justify ever grander and more ambitious schemes to address problems which were largely of their own making. The park and ride, bus lanes, and trams being three such grand white elephant projects. If Edinburgh Council thought Edinburgh congestion was bad before, they really aught to have visited London or Birmingham where a minor breakdown would often cause gridlock for hours. Edinburgh never had it so good.

    As I recall, David Begg was a hero to some, but a bloody nuisance to others.

  153. Ghillie says:

    George Wood @ 8.18pm

    I’m not sure that the introduction of bus lanes and the 20mph speed limits in Edinburgh are actualy totally down to the Green Party.

    The Greens do have some good policies with improvements to our environment at their heart. Seems odd to demonise them for that.

    But I am so glad you brought this up!

    I am an Edinburgh driver and LOVE the new 20mph limit!

    Those street have calmed down so much. 30mph elsewhere in the city now seems foolhardy.

    I would have thought the lower speeds would save fuel and lower polution. It will certainly encourage folk like me to use my bike instead if the roads feel safer. I do walk as much as I can.

    But the really big benefit of lowering vehicle speeds is the reduction of fatalities amongst pedestrians.

    I keep remembering,in particular, a wee boy who was killed near Balgreen, who might be alive now if the 20mph had been in place then.

  154. heedtracker says:

    If you’re cyclist like me, bus lanes are fantastic. Go Green.

  155. Hamish100 says:

    pnr

    you have assumed an independent will support the SNP. You can’t. They support themselves.
    Would you not be better off with an SNP councillor?

    The mixed message seems to be in some areas. For an SNP majority council– dont vote SNP.

  156. Robert Peffers says:

    @shiregirl says: 14 February, 2017 at 6:51 pm

    “My thoughts also – sincere condolences to Dennis Canavan. When you read about tragic stuff like this, political beliefs are put to one side.”

    I too feel for Dennis and his remaining family, a more honest, trustworthy and principled person never walked this Earth. My heart goes out to a man I have long admired.

  157. Robert J. Sutherland says:

    Thepnr @ 18:56,

    That’s it in a nutshell. Needs to be spread everywhere, because I fear there still many voters who either believe they have to give a preference for everyone or (dare I suggest it?) even still only put a cross (duh) against one.

    We have seen that Tory (and to some extent LibDem) voters have been willing in the past to lend votes to Labour where it might keep the SNP down. (A strategy with rapidly diminishing returns these days, mind you.) So pro-indy voters may be wise to look beyond just SNP 1-2(-3). Better anyone else willing to work constructively with a minority SNP administration than a Red-Blue Tory coalition. (Even if that would sound the last death knell for BLiS.)

    A word of caution though. Because of circumstances, these may be the most nationally-driven local elections ever, but the clue’s still in the name, so local factors may still cause significant variations from the general picture. In my part of Glasgow (where at least some ward boundaries are changing) both the Blue and Red Tories are focussing on the loss of bus services, for example. (As if it was the fault of the SNP. Carefully not mentioning that the privatisation which made it possible was another of Thatcher’s cunning plans that Labour did sweet FA about in their turn.)

    In the case of Aberdeen City, OTOH, you would think that the good burghers there would be so scunnert by now of Labour’s city-centre carbuncle bungling that they would likely vote for anybody else to get them gone!

  158. yesindyref2 says:

    @Hamish100 “The mixed message seems to be in some areas. For an SNP majority council– dont vote SNP.”

    Nobody has said that, nobody at all. Vote for all the SNP candidates first, then Green then Independent. Local branches WILL know who the independent is, I know who all the independents in my ward are, and I don’t even get out much these days (too busy / brassic).

    Local knowledge counts, but branches do need to know how it works. Mine didn’t last election – their advice was wrong.

    WOS -mentioning article on H still at top )” Poll finds support for Scottish Labour down since 2012 council elections”), and 4th on most popular 🙂

    Wonder if there’ll be new readers soon … hello and welcome!

  159. asklair says:

    SNP is not a natural home for me, I give them my votes, it’s the “right and proper” thing to do. I have been to a few election counts where the smug labour winner’s always made me want to literally vomit.Is it wrong for me to smile at those figures? Still remember that day we all marched to stop Gulf War II in Glasgow and the pathetic Labour delegation left their conference to stand outside to give us lot “moral” support. That did not go down well in the block of demonstrators I happened to be with. Never seen so much anger and pure energy for a long time.

  160. Stoker says:

    K1 on 14 February, 2017 at 8:50 pm:

    Just want to add this to your comment – You raise a very valid concern(?) regarding the 16-18 group. We can’t take that group for granted for several reasons, mainly that the majority of them can’t be bothered with politics and just how many of them are aware that they even have a vote.

    I recently gave an English neighbour of mine several SNP badges and one of them was for her 16-year old granddaughter. Later that day my better half was out having a coffee and doing some shopping with them when the young lassie expressed genuine surprise that she had a vote.

    We can’t afford to take anything for granted and we need to work harder than ever, that includes ruling nothing or nobody out.

  161. Robert Peffers says:

    @Cal says: 14 February, 2017 at 7:07 pm:

    ” … Many many people from south of the border are retired and have moved up to take advantage of the bargain basement house prices (relatively speaking) and high quality of life and health services we enjoy here.

    It is far more simple than that, Cal. I’ve explained it several times on Wings. It is simply that the SNP are a relatively new party. After many years in the political wilderness being treated as a suspected, I kid you not, terrorist threat.

    Never forget that Arthur Donaldson’s home was raided by MI5, (assisted by the Local Police Force, and imprisoned for six weeks accused of being a NAZI and wanting to set up a Quisling style government in Scotland if Hitler invaded Britain.

    This was on no other evidence than someone walking into an MI5 office and reporting this to the Desk Office. MI5 claimed that a large cache of weapons was found and subversive paperwork. Yet, and remember this was wartime, Donaldson was released without charge and no weapons or subversive literature has ever been produced.

    Google Arthur Donaldson and you will find almost every UK paper, even recently, has carried the accusations that the SNP were/are NAZI sympathisers. For example :-

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/mi5-file-links-former-snp-leader-to-nazi-plan-1-1103305

    So the reason the SNP has a younger support is no more sinister than that the unionist parties older support is drawn from those who have followed the Tory/Labour/Liberal unionists since they were young and it is only a handful of old guys like myself that have been stanch SNP all our lives and the rest are later recruits and thus tend to be younger because for every new SNP member or supporter is one less unionist supporter for the Westminster Establishment.

  162. Angry Weegie says:

    There’s an assumption that as older voters die off, they’ll be replaced by voters who are more inclined to vote SNP. However, it’s quite likely that voters’ opinions may change as they themselves age and other aspects of government policy becomes more important, such as (e.g.) pensions. Just as we’re seeing voters who voted SNP last year changing their minds, we are just as likely to see voters’ opinions changing as they age, so we shouldn’t be complacent that age demographics will eventually work out in our favour. We still have work to do.
    On another point, please remember that the STV system removes candidates with the lowest number of first preference votes. Votes for SNP candidates have to be more or less equally spread among all candidates or the candidate with a small number of first preference votes is likely to be removed in an early round. As an example, if, in a ward with two SNP candidates, everyone votes for candidate A as first preference and candidate B as second preference, candidate B will have zero first preference votes and will be removed in the first round. We need to be more careful in voting to make sure we get the optimum result.

  163. Roughian says:

    Kezia I’d offer you a screw driver and a screw for that shoogilly peg but I don’t think you’d know what to do with them.

  164. Hamish100

    You are absolutely correct. Voting in independents in the entirely mistaken belief that you can rely on them to support or join an SNP administrations is nonsense.
    They are in the final analysis very often self centred and self opinionated and unpredictable. When things get tough they’re very often off taking no responsibility, they provide very little policy or strategy and usually fall in line with the views or desires of the most voluble of their voters – right or wrong.
    The only useful tool in local government is a disciplined party administration (which can be kicked out if they flop)

  165. Robert Kerr says:

    o/t Starting at 10 BBC4 Prog on Brexit implications for survival of the Union.

    They mean the EU of course. Scotland is nowhere.

  166. Stoker says:

    To lurkers and newbies:

    Try your best to ignore the deliberate direct link to the BUM rag in the comment post at 9:42pm. Clicking on those direct links helps them to finance their campaigns against us and our country.

    Those scumbags help to keep our people in poverty, weapons of mass destruction on our soil and in our seas and they also help Westminster to lord it over us 24/7 etc etc etc.

    They are not “news” outlets, they are Unionist propaganda tools.

  167. heedtracker says:

    Robert Kerr says:
    14 February, 2017 at 9:53 pm
    o/t Starting at 10 BBC4 Prog on Brexit implications for survival of the Union.

    They mean the EU of course. Scotland is nowhere.

    End of era time in Europe. As each day passes, Scotland’s masters cut our connections to the EU.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/feb/14/theresa-may-set-to-miss-eus-60th-anniversary-summit-sources-say?CMP=share_btn_fb

    archive not work at work, sorry.

  168. Hamish100 says:

    Dave McEwan Hill

    Thanks Dave. For a moment I thought I was the only one that believed that supporting an individual who canvasses against the snp as a means of gaining political power over councils was just plain wrong. Sends out the wrong message. Surely even a 3rd SNP candidate is worth a try. If they are good enough in the local community they will get the votes. If not so be it. I suspect that it is more about the sitting candidates thinking they are homeward bound. All things being equal a candidate with your surname Hill against someone called McTavish means you are more likely to get more votes!
    Anyway the basic mantra should be SNP 1,2,3- NOTHING ELSE.I thought the SNP wanted to win?

  169. HandandShrimp says:

    As an example, if, in a ward with two SNP candidates, everyone votes for candidate A as first preference and candidate B as second preference, candidate B will have zero first preference votes and will be removed in the first round.

    Angry Weegie

    It is more complicated than that. There is a quota target for the first round of seats when reached those successful candidates’ second preferences are counted. If there are 4 seats and the SNP are polling around 47% then with some secondary votes from candidates with low numbers the SNP should be good for 2 seats. 3 would be pushing it unless a lot of Labour second preferences came our way to keep out the Tories (you never know the penny might drop that a vote for a Tory is actually a vote for a Tory). By and large parties play carefully to avoid spreading their vote too wide and stand as many as they think they can win. In some wards it might be 3 candidates.

    If there are 2 candidates and you have voted SNP 1 and 2 you can either stop voting or cast a vote in the direction of a candidate that might potentially block a Tory/die hard unionist for that third seat. In Edinburgh or Glasgow a Green vote be a realistic prospect, in the countryside a genuine independent. However there is no requirement to vote for anyone other than the party you favour

  170. gerry parker says:

    Liz g,
    Thanks, have made some progress.

  171. DerekM says:

    Looking at these figures you would have to say that Labour will be lucky to hold any councils and the ones they go into coalition to win they will be the junior partner to the tories.

    Big dilemma for slabbers they have the choice of backing the tories and the death of their party or to leave the tories in the lurch and gain some credibility back.

    What is it going to be slabbers?

  172. davidb says:

    @ Highland shrimp.

    Thats incorrect.

    The simplified version of STV – ie most cases – is not exactly what happens in your example.

    On the first ballot every candidate who exceeds the quota is elected. However the second preferences of the highest placed candidate are then redistributed first. That candidate could be A in your example and they could poll 47% of the vote in a 4 member ward. So over half of their excess would go to B in your example. It is likely that B would now exceed the quota and be elected too.

    Many of the ballots will be simple, but some will feature the unusual circumstances. Like one candidate taking a huge personal vote on the first ballot.

    Incidentally, in 2012 12% of votes were cast for Independents. The Rev’s poll does not capture that.

    Look here if you are a real STV geek.

    http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/sites/default/files/2012-Scottish-Local-Government-Elections.pdf

  173. Robert J. Sutherland says:

    Hamish100 @ 22:05

    …supporting an individual who canvasses against the snp

    This is a straw man. No-one is advocating that. It’s a mistake to conflate outright opponents (as you seem to imply) with neutrals or fellow-travellers.

    It’s local elections, FGS. DMH may be right in his neck of the woods, where (as we all know, so-called “independents” are often just cowardly Tories) but it doesn’t necessarily apply everywhere. We can’t afford to be dirigiste about this. If someone has it down on record that they are willing to work with an SNP administration, or has earned trust by past behaviour, why should you care? It’s surely far better to have them in place than a rank Unionist, one that could swing the balance, even.

    Have a majority administration if you can, by all means, but don’t be generically over-simplistic please. It may make a big difference somewhere or other to be just a little bit smarter.

  174. davidb says:

    Sorry H/S

    I realise you are referring to an earlier post. Its not personal. Just complicated 🙂

    D

  175. Robert Peffers says:

    @Thepnr says: 14 February, 2017 at 8:23 pm:

    “First I’ve heard mind of the Greens being a “disaster” for the enviroment. Seems to go against the grain.”

    Just common sense, Thepnr.

    It’s like this – if you slow the traffic through your town down by 1/3 then every vehicle takes 1/3 longer to make each journey and that means every engine running 1/3 longer pumping out fumes.

    However, it is even worse than that for all engines are more efficient running at higher speeds so that means the the entire time they are running is more polluting with running less efficiently and thus the remaining 2/3 are also spewing out extra pollutants.

    It is the same thing in reverse when a town/city/village by-pass is built for the vehicles are not only not passing through the urban area but they are passing quicker and running more efficiently.

    Now remember the Greens have opposed many such by-passes throughout Scotland and advocated 20MPH zones. I think these measures will actually have killed more people with pollution aggravated illness that the lives saved by less accidents by slowing traffic.

    I tend to think green but not Green party as they are very unscientific in many ways. I argued with one who told me that Nuclear power is clean. I spent over 15 years working in a RADIAC Lab and thus know quite a bit about radioactivity and how it is mined and processed. It is not even a clean fuel at the reactor and the pollutants it generates take almost infinity to die away.

    They quote you a half-life of thousands of years. That means that after the stated half-life the pollution has only halved and it will be the same time again for it to half again.

    Not to mention that mining it releases Radon Gas and the very large spoil heaps left after they remove the actual Uranium is still radioactive and it contains heavy metal that is soluble in water and it leaches out into the local water table and into the domestic water systems.

  176. mike cassidy says:

    Headtracker 10.02

    Guardian archived.

    http://archive.is/K5JNo

  177. Robert Peffers says:

    @Chilean says: 14 February, 2017 at 8:30 pm:

    “Time is on our side nawbags.”

    How nice of you to wish me dead, Chilean.

    Such nice people you Scottish Independence people are. You want we old people to die so that Scotland can be free.

    I’m sure that will please a fair number of elderly Wingers who regularly post here.

    Mind you it will leave much more room for those nice people who wished us dead to run Scotland.

    How glad I am to leave behind such nice people to run Scotland after I have the mawks crawling out of me.

  178. mike cassidy says:

    re the Greens and road pollution.

    Maybe this quantum explanation might interest them

    http://archive.is/xaSDP

    Or even this next step to turning the national road network into a giant scalextrix track

    http://archive.is/g5KBr

  179. yesindyref2 says:

    @davidb
    is correct. First it’s calculate the quota, and any candidate that exceeds the quota is elected and their excecss redistributed, than any others that exceed the quota and their excess redistributed.

    It’s not until there are no candidates exceed the quota that the lowest polling candidate is eliminated and all their vores redistributed. Then if anyone exceeds the quota they’re elected, and if not, the 2nd lowest polling candidate elected.

  180. Robert Peffers says:

    @Liz g says: 14 February, 2017 at 8:51 pm:

    “That’s horrible….Go find the numbers for new 16 year olds,that will be mair in yer line,and stop being so nasty.”

    I’m sure that when my sons and step sons, their wives and my grandchildren and their children. Read that post they will be so very pleased to know the Independence movement wants there one remaining Grand parent dead soon.

    It really is a great way to gain voters for the unionists.

  181. What a good name for a campaign 😉

    Would love to hear from any yessers old or new – collecting stories as to why people plan to vote yes!

  182. crazycat says:

    @ Yesindyref2

    I’m assuming you intended the last word in your 11.04 post to be “eliminated”, not “elected”.

    (I also expect to cross-post with your correction, since that is what ususally happens 🙂 .)

  183. heedtracker says:

    mike cassidy says:
    14 February, 2017 at 10:48 pm
    Headtracker 10.02

    Guardian archived.

    Cheers. One day soon there will the Prime Minister of Scotland standing on that podium of EU leaders. The moving finger of history is er, writing:D

  184. Hamish100 at 10.05

    “Anyway the basic mantra should be SNP 1,2,3- NOTHING ELSE.I thought the SNP wanted to win?”

    Exactly, and we’ve just been presented with a timid VMS proposal which uses data from 2012 as a basis, oblivious to the fact that die tothe Independence Referendum the 2012 data is now entirely out of date.
    With four times as many SNP members in our ward than we had in 2012 we are in a position that suggests even if we get all our members and families out to vote SNP 1-2 3 we will probably could put all three in.

  185. Dr Jim says:

    Folk have to be taught to vote SNP as Robert Peffers explains better than I
    Habitual Labour voters didn’t just happen they had to be educated to vote that way, but of course that was at a time when there actually was a Labour party who had the capability of doing something to oppose the Tories

    For a long time that hasn’t been the case and did we but know it was never the case in Scotland
    We were well conned into believing Labour was the peoples party before we began to see the cracks and see the truth for ourselves that they were indeed not as they purported to be but an extention of the Tory party that was designed to look like what we wanted but wasn’t
    A sort of chameleon party if you will but who can no longer hide its real self

    The SNP showed us what the Labour party should and could have been doing but chose not to
    Now we choose SNP as the hope for our country the Labour party stole from us
    Now we choose SNP to take our country back for us, the only difference from Labour is the SNP are actually doing it much to the chagrin of all the Tory parties whatever they call themsevles

    And all in the shortest time politically ever known by any political party anywhere and without the power the Labour party had
    This has all been done on the most limited of budgets and authority
    You have to say quite an achievement for a comparatively young party and it’s no wonder Alex Salmond was accorded an award for democratic politics by the EU and now Nicola Sturgeon has impressed the EU in exactly the same way making her and the SNP the new recognised democratic party in the EU

  186. crazycat says:

    *usually*

    (A copy of the original post, with the correct spelling, may appear, since I accidentally hit submit in mid-correction, then submitted again – or maybe not. Too late at night.)

  187. Thepnr at 8.59

    Oh, we had some independents that supported the SNP into administration here and then as soon as the administration got into difficulties they supported another administration into place against the SNP.

    Might have been something to do with extra monies from committee chairmanships and the like.

    You are either with us or against us.

  188. Cactus says:

    Not too long to go now till T day.

    T-minus 45 (max) and counting..

  189. heedtracker says:

    http://archive.is/f2J2T

    Wealthiest 1% of Scots richer than bottom 50% combined

    9 hours ago, not 90 years ago. UKOK zone looking pretty good for the rich alright.

    “A new Scottish Government report has laid bare the country’s wealth inequality.”

  190. galamcennalath says:

    Paul Kavanagh? @weegingerdug Tweets ….

    “Scottish Unionism is the belief that Scotland is the only thing in the world that the Tories give a pile of money to out of pure altruism.”

    . .. that is one of the truest and funniest things I’ve read all day. 🙂

  191. Big Phil says:

    O/T Mr Peffers,wee question sir, your time in a RADIAC lab, did you ever meet Mr Hambrook from the hunterston RADIAC.?

  192. Robert J. Sutherland says:

    yesindyref2 @ 23:04,

    An important difference being that in the case of candidates who exceed the quota, all their 2nd (or later, as applicable) preferences are allocated in proportion to the candidate’s fractional surplus, whereas in the case of eliminated candidates, all their 2nd (or later, as applicable) preferences are transferred undiluted.

    The reason for the former case being that you can’t determine after the event which voters’ next-lower preferences should be discarded and which retained, so all are retained but proportionally diluted.

    Dilutions continue through 3rd, 4th, etc. preferences as required. The only time this process ends for each ballot is if it contains no more preferences.

    So including an additional preference at the end of your main list will only accumulate (at least part of) your vote if your preceding selections have all already either succeeded or failed, and are out of the contest one way or t’other. If you don’t include any further selections, you have no further say in what happens next.

    That is what some people still don’t seem to understand. It’s not only about electing who you really want, it’s also about deciding between any remaining contenders afterwards.

  193. heedtracker says:

    http://indyref2.scot/the-bbc-has-earned-the-distrust-of-scots

    And finally, another great explanation of how all the Pacific Quay liggers work tirelessly to make sure, that the “Wealthiest 1% of Scots richer than bottom 50% combined” stay that way, for another UK year at least.

  194. Johnny says:

    davidb @ 10:40am:

    That 12% for independents in 2012 is interesting, as the Rev had some character telling him on Twitter that the changes for the main parties were ‘mathematically impossible’ because there was no way independents had got 11%! How wrong was that guy?

    Probably couldn’t see that it was 11% of the 40% who actually turned out, making it much more explicable.

  195. Liz g says:

    Robert Peffers @ 11.10
    Aye I know Robert, it’s shocking that people don’t think about what they say before they say it.
    Somebody’s wee grannie or grandpa,who let’s face it bothered to go vote, are not fair game for abuse not matter how they voted.
    Truth be told it’s probably the lazy younger Scot’s who could not be arsed that could have made the difference.
    I never see numbers showing how much the Pensioners are out numbered by other voter’s, I think it would be fair to say that had everyone else who could vote did vote,our elderly probably don’t have the numbers.

  196. Morag says:

    2. They should only vote for the SNP and must not give 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc preference votes to any other party.

    That’s just nonsense. The way STV works, you literally cannot damage your higher preferences by voting for additional lower preferences.

    Obviously people need to vote for all the SNP candidates in whatever order they’ve been told, or seems best to them. They don’t need to express any lower preferences if they don’t want to, but if they do it can’t possibly damage the SNP candidates.

    You could vote for a popular independent, or a Green, in the hope of keeping a Tory out. You could vote for a LibDem ahead of a Tory because you think the overall balance of the council would be better for the SNP if the LibDem got the seat rather than a Tory.

    I might even give my second preference to the second-string Tory here, just to mess with their heads. (The guy is an independent running under a Tory flag.) I might give it to the LibDem to keep the nominal Tory out. I have to think about how it plays in the overall council balance. I suspect the Tories might re-take our council actually in which case I might give the LibDem a bit of a punt.

    But whatever I do with my second preference, it won’t and can’t do any damage to the SNP candidate who will get my first preference.

  197. yesindyref2 says:

    Worked example for Brigaturk, a ward with 4 seats, total votes 4,995.

    All those who voted SNP voted SNPA 1, SNPB 2, Green 3.

    First preferences
    SNPA 2,300
    Lab 800
    Con 800
    Other 395
    Green 700
    SNPB 0

    The quota is one more than the the number of total votes divided by the number of seats to be filled plus one.

    Total number of votes 4995. Quota = 4995/(4+1) + 1 = 1,000.

    1. SNPA reaches quota and is elcted. Surplus is 1,300 which apportioned by number of SNPB second preference votes (2300), divided by total votes for SNPA (2300), multiplied by the excess (1300). So 2300 / 2300 * 1300 = 1300.

    2. SNPB now has 0 + 1300 = 1300, has exceeded the quota and is elected. Excess of 1300 / 1300 * 300 = 300 goes to Green same as in 1.

    3. Green = 700 + 300 = 1,000. Green has reached quota and is elected.

    4. Who cares? Either Con or Lab is elected, who can tell the difference these days!

  198. DerekM says:

    What would be the effect of say 40% of the vote(could be higher)not giving a preference for any unionist parties and only giving the SNP a preference on the ballot paper?

    Would that be enough to keep the yoons from coalition?

    I hate this STV system only a deceitful yoon could have come up with this electoral balderdash.

  199. Joemcg says:

    That English people voting Tory statistic is certainly a big worry heading into a possible second referendum. Elephant in the room again but this is a BIG obstacle and a potential reason we will lose Indyref2. Has to be said.

  200. yesindyref2 says:

    @crazycat
    Yes, sorry, eliminated!

    @Big Phil
    Jim – ex-diver.

  201. Cactus says:

    Timely WGD post G..

    I just happened to hand over two steamers to the ‘Altruistic cult’ yesterday on GTA5. Some place north-west.

    Mon the X-Box!

  202. Robert Peffers says:

    @Ghillie says: 14 February, 2017 at 9:03 pm:

    ” … I am an Edinburgh driver and LOVE the new 20mph limit!”

    ” … I would have thought the lower speeds would save fuel and lower polution.”

    Err! No! It is a scientific and engineering fact that slower engine speeds are less efficient and efficiency is actually a measure of fuel used to do work.

    If efficiency is lowered it means you need more to do the same work and the reason engines are less efficient is because they fuel is not all being burned in the engine but is being pushed out the exhaust.

    ” … But the really big benefit of lowering vehicle speeds is the reduction of fatalities amongst pedestrians.”

    Aye! Richt!

    Now if I was a betting man I’d bet that if you found out the people in Edinburgh who have died in, say the past year from the effects of pollution, and in particular from Asthma alone, it would vastly exceed the numbers killed in vehicular accidents. 72,000 children were receiving treatment for asthma in Scotland in 2016.

    As to the wee boy killed on the road – what about the ones that died from diseases either caused by traffic fumes and particulates that never get reported in the news?

    These Asthma death figures below are 2016 figures.

    “National Records of Scotland reveal a total of 122 people in Scotland died from asthma last year. Highest number of deaths since 2002. 35 men and 87 women died from asthma attacks.

    368,000 people (1 in 14) are currently receiving treatment for asthma. Includes 72,000 children and 296,000 adults.

  203. Morag says:

    What would be the effect of say 40% of the vote(could be higher)not giving a preference for any unionist parties and only giving the SNP a preference on the ballot paper?

    Absolutely nothing at all other than leaving the choice of which unionist candidates win the seats the SNP doesn’t win entirely up to the other 60% of the voters.

    All you can do is vote for the SNP candidates first, and then if you want to, use later preferences to try to influence which of your “enemies” get the remaining seats. You can neither help nor hinder your first choices chances of getting elected by what you do with your later choices.

  204. Robert J. Sutherland says:

    Morag @ 23:34,

    “Snap”! (me @ 23:29)

    (It is rather concerning though that there are fairly clued-up indy supporters on here who still don’t entirely “get it”. Unlike a lot of Unionist voters, it would seem, who are quite prepared to lend preferences to their former supposed political enemies.)

  205. Big Phil says:

    @
    yesindyref2.
    Yup the very man. Very good friend of mine and neighbour.

  206. yesindyref2 says:

    @Robert J. Sutherland
    Yes, it’s that dilution is very tricky, specially when it includes people who didn’t make any more preferences.

  207. Iain Rough says:

    I’ve just watched BBC news channel and an item on the killing of Kim Jon-nam. The BBC say the most important play in North Korea is Macbeth dating from 1606. They then say this Scottish play tells about a king who not would let anything stand in his way!!! and that Kim Jon-in has killed 100’s. What’s that got to do with the price of bread unless it’s meant to be a dig at Nicola and wanting independence. The reporter then goes on to say he interviewed Donald Trump who was fascinated with the Kim Jon dynasty??? I’m by no means a fan of Trump but is this reporter suggesting Trump could be the west’s equivalent of Kim Jon-in???

  208. Big Phil says:

    @
    yesindyref2
    i’ll post again. lol. yes the very same man.

  209. yesindyref2 says:

    @Big Phil
    Small world 🙂 He got me an “unofficial” tour many years ago.

    Well, I always do say Scotland is very small, we all know someone who knows someone.

  210. Still Positive says:

    For any of you who have elderly parents in care homes, please make sure their postal vote goes to the person who has Power of Attorney, rather than the care home.

    It helped a bit with my mum in 2011 when her postal vote went to the house she shared with my sister.

    However, I was there the day my sister tried to cajole mum into voting SNP when it was clear she hadn’t a clue what was happening – mum agreed.

    My personal opinion, as joint PoA wasn’t taken consideration, mum was unable to make a decision. I wouldn’t have voted on her behalf because I really did not know how she would have voted.

    I have always voted SNP but we never knew how mum voted: she was of the generation who kept it secret, by and large.

    I have told my children that if I get to the stage when I don’t know if it is New Year or New York then they know to vote SNP for me.

  211. DerekM says:

    @ Morag

    Thanks Morag,yea that is what i thought and it has not changed my mind any on my thoughts on STV.

    All we are likely to see is a switch from labour/tory councils to tory/labour unless we can get the full indy vote out,its that numbers game again unless our vote is higher than theirs combined we get stuck with yoons.

    Are the greens running in most councils that could maybe even up the score with the indy vote behind them.

  212. Angry Weegie says:

    @HandandShrimp
    You’re assuming a high proportion of the votes go to the SNP, which isn’t going to be true in all wards. In our area, both Labour and LibDems are quite strong and getting 47% of the vote will be a challenge.

  213. Morag says:

    I don’t like STV one tiny little bit for a number of reasons, but from the point of view of the voter it’s simplicity itself. Just rank the candidates in order of preference. Once you get to the point where you don’t have any preference among those that are left, stop.

    You can’t possibly second-guess or game the system, no matter what you do. It’s depressing to read some of the misunderstandings and misinformation on here.

  214. yesindyref2 says:

    @DerekM
    I vaguely remember seeong them say they had candidates in all councils, but that wouldn’t of course be in every ward in every council. I don’t think mines’s will have a Green to vote for.

  215. yesindyref2 says:

    Thought I had it bookmarked, yrtis:

    http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0038/00389095.pdf

    Detailed Description of an STV Count in accordance with the Rules in the Scottish Local Government Elections Order 2011“.

  216. Big Phil says:

    @
    yesindyref2
    lol,Too true, he’s no doin too good these days, been looking out for him for the past few years (ex-services and all that) , he’s old english secret service i’m sure, lol. I would hate to tell him that i want this ‘union’ disolved, he’s stuck in what he believes, so i cant and wont tell him whats going on, official secrets wink wink . lol

  217. Robert J. Sutherland says:

    DerekM @ 23:37:

    I hate this STV system – only a deceitful yoon could have come up with this electoral balderdash.

    Which must be why YoonCentral, The Palace of WestMonster, has decided to retain crusty old FPTP instead. (duh.)

    Which discards votes by the million, puts the results of general elections (and thus the government) in the hands of a very small number of “marginal” constituencies, fills WM with scores of place(wo)men, and produces “strong” government by the barely-elected (see the present Tory UKGov). But ideal for illiterate 19th-Century voters.

    Read the above recent postings on the subject, complete with worked examples. It’s never too late to learn.

  218. davidb says:

    @ Johnny & others

    If you read through Professor Curtice’s report ( linked above ) some interesting things are thrown up.

    Independents are more of a phenomenon in rural areas.

    Labour’s vote is higher in the big cities, but the voters in poorer areas are less likely to vote – which may impact on SNP support in the cities this time.

    The SNP vote is more evenly spread – so if it does turn out to be 47% we may be in a particularly good position nationwide.

    Transfers are not as obvious as they might seem. Some Conservatives transfer to SNP. This one is on the slates this time because it is possible the electorate are now dividing into Unionists and Patriots.( Sorry, but I am partisan! )

    The STV system amplifies the support of larger parties. If the voters can be persuaded to turn out and vote then the SNP may do a little better than our wildest dreams.

  219. DerekM says:

    @ indyref2

    I hope so as we might need them in my area Falkirk last time the yoons created a labour/tory council from hell and we really really really need to sack the fucking lot of them.

  220. Robert Peffers says:

    @Big Phil says: 14 February, 2017 at 11:28 pm

    “O/T Mr Peffers,wee question sir, your time in a RADIAC lab, did you ever meet Mr Hambrook from the hunterston RADIAC.?”

    Probably not as I worked for the Admiralty. We covered all Naval and Civilian RN MOD stuff from Newcastle to the Northern Isles. That included the Clyde Base.

    We sometimes got gear to do from such as Hospitals and Museums but never from the Nuclear Energy sector. Even our training courses were from The RN for electronic and the Naval Institute of Medicine for Anatomy, Nuclear and Quantum Physics theory stuff.

  221. Chick McGregor says:

    It should be remembered that the last possible power ‘out’ option for WM in Scotland, namely the transference of powers/funding to LG (aside, of course, from dissolving the SP) has yet to be achieved.

    Also, with STV, the best way to achieve that is vote only for SNP candidates in which ever order you prefer.

  222. Robert J. Sutherland says:

    Still Positive @ 23:53,

    That point about PoA on behalf of elderly relatives is an excellent suggestion, and the best way possible it would seem to avoid abuse of process, at least as legendarily performed by campaign agents.

  223. Chick McGregor says:

    oops ‘negation of the last power ‘out’ option’

  224. Cactus says:

    Scotland..

    We got SO much potential..

    Energy.
    X.

  225. Big Phil says:

    @ Mr Peffers,
    Thank you, he is of your generation, Very clever man, he knows more than i ever could. Cheers for the reply. I thought it would make his day if i said i spoke to an auld pal. Indyref2 knows him, Mr Hambrook was one of the divers in a james bond film, so much history that im proud to say i know him. Always respect my elders no matter what they vote.

  226. Robert Peffers says:

    @Sinky says: 14 February, 2017 at 11:29 pm:

    “O/T BBC compared North Korea killing to Scots King Macbeth
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/commentators/magnus-magnusson-how-did-shakespeare-get-macbeth-so-wrong-9266016.html

    Indeed, Sinky, I’ve been telling Wingers that the majority of our taught history is bunk for quite a while now. Even the Romans were at the spinning thing. However, much of it can be exposed by simple deduction.

    Like the way England claims the Jacobites were rebels.

    Yet, as Scotland was still an independent Kingdom until 1707, the Scots could not be rebelling against a King imported to England where the Parliament of England had deposed their king and imported King Billy & Queen Mary of Orange.

    The obvious truth is that the rebels were the English Parliamentarians who rebelled against their Monarch.

  227. Maybe we should make a run for it now. Thursday 2nd November 2017 is the fiftieth anniversary of Winnie Ewing winning Hamilton.

  228. DerekM says:

    @ Robert

    Not sure where you are going Robert all i said was i hate STV not that i did not understand it,and i am no fan of westminster style FPTP either since it is rigged by deceitful yoons.

  229. yesindyref2 says:

    @Big Phil
    I’ll have to look him up sometime, lost contact (my fault), presume he’s still around from that, cough, tyre place. Some time since I saw him down town, but them I’m rarely down town. Sound as a pound, yeah, probably a NO!

    @Morag
    Yes, the easy thing and the clever thing is the same – people just put 1, 2, 3 … against their preferred candidates in order. It’s very simple, very simple.

  230. crazycat says:

    @ Liz g at 11.33

    I never see numbers showing how much the Pensioners are out numbered by other voters

    http://www.gov.scot/Resource/0050/00500297-540.jpg

    This (taken from http://www.gov.scot/Topics/People/Equality/Equalities/DataGrid/Age/AgePopMig) refers to 2015, which I presume is the most recent available information, and is population rather than registered voters.

    Now that the voting age is 16, the divisions on the chart are suitably placed, and show a ratio of 65:18, which equals 3.6:1 (both registration and turnout are likely to be skewed in favour of older voters, but the discrepancy would seem unlikely to lead to a significantly different ratio, let alone a reversal).

    The proportion of over 65s is forecast to increase by more than half over the next 25 years, but they will still be greatly outnumbered . (By then “they” will be “we” from my perspective!)

  231. Robert Peffers says:

    @Big Phil says: 15 February, 2017 at 12:28 am

    ” … Mr Hambrook was one of the divers in a james bond film, so much history that im proud to say i know him. Always respect my elders no matter what they vote.”

    Aye! It is, so they say a small World. The Bond thing is a case in point. As a laddie I wanted a new bike and took on a paper round in Edinburgh to buy one. I couldn’t get a round nearer home and managed to get a round around the Tollcross/Fountainbridge area of Edinburgh.

    My round overlapped that of a milk delivery chap we called Big Tam – Sean Connery himself. Never though he would become World famous back then though. Funny how paths cross and intertwine.

    I’m off to bed – my wee Papillon is getting at me to pack in this computer thing and get her the couple of goodies she gets along with her teeth cleaning chewy thing last thing before bed.

  232. Big Phil says:

    @ yesindyref2.
    It’ll be a laugh the morra when i tell him Yesindyref2 was asking for him. lol. He’s a defobyfeckinbirthright NO. lol. He’s old school english but he tells me he has more friends here and wants tae die here.He loves Scotland.But….the establishment?? as Mr Peffers says is ingrained. Respect.

  233. Big Phil says:

    @ Mr Peffers , lol. Brilliant. good night to ye sir.

  234. yesindyref2 says:

    @Big Phil
    Heart of gold. If I meet him I’ll give the YES thing a shot … he’s probably be surprised to think of me as an Indy supporter, takes a few by surprise for some odd reason. Keep it to yourself if you get a bite, identity is always something to be careful of, but if you mention Jimmy and Tess and toasted cheesburgers along with MGB, he might get an idea …

  235. Cadogan Enright says:

    @yesindyref2. says: 14 February, 2017 at 11:36 pm
    Worked example for Brigaturk, a ward
    First preferences
    SNPA 2,300
    Lab 800
    Con 800
    Other 395
    Green 700
    SNPB 0

    Not true, many people get elected without meeting the quota and the last candidate to be eliminated is the one languishing at the bottom of a two horse raise for the last seat.and the last 2 seats are usually won without a quota

    having been in many STv elections, the SNP in this case would look at the canvass returns, and aim to get both candidates with about 1000 votes each and even run a third candidate. SNP supporters indifferent wards would be asked To vote 123 for each of these 3 candidates to ensure none is at the bottom waiting to be eliminated

    Here in Ireland, if you had 2600 first preferences, a well run party would get 3 candidates on nearly 900 votes each and stand a chance of 3 seats

    Have a look at Irish STV election results to see what i mean. Check Derry , Belfast, Cork of Dublin

    One candidate exceeding the quota on the first count is bad vote management

  236. Robert J. Sutherland says:

    DerekM @ 00:32,

    Just sayin’, Derek, that it’s no help casually slagging STV off as a “yoon plot”. There is actually a lot of careful principled thought behind it. It’s not a “fix”. And as Morag already said, it’s not hard for the casual user to understand and operate either. So I’m not sure what your real concern really is.

    Of course, you are always welcome to propose a better alternative, with reasons, for another occasion… =grin=

    (And then as things stand, convince our “betters” in WM that it’s what they should impose upon us. =frown=)

    I do get concerned, though, about complaints over some electoral procedure based merely on the grounds that it doesn’t happen to deliver some particular result that the complainer desires. Whereas the onus is really on them to convince enough voters that their cause is best. In the end there’s no legitimate substitute for that.

  237. Artyhetty says:

    R.Peffers@11.42pm

    Horrifying figures there re Asthma deaths, very scary. Just hope that does not get worse, a bad asthma attack is so scary, my son and I both need inhalers here in Edinburgh, very recent for me.:-(

    I saw an empty tram a couple of evenings ago, and thought, what the heck, it could have been so much better, pollution is getting worse. Labour have a lot to answer for.

    Regards the council elections, if Labour were to join the tories, we should never again tolerate their mantra that they are ‘socialist’. They still try to make out that they support the ‘working class’. People are not fooled by them in Scotland, not anymore.

  238. Big Phil says:

    @
    yesindyref2. Lol, i’ll see him in the mornin before i goto work and i’ll bet his brain will be rattling for two mins and then he’ll know, clever auld git. All good . 🙂

  239. Still Positive says:

    Dave McEwan hill @12.30

    I am well aware of this anniversary. Indeed, it is the reason I want an Independent Scotland.

    The following day I read, ironically in the Daily Record,that the SNP thought that Scotland was a country so should be independent.

    I agreed wholeheartedly with that and have voted SNP ever since.

    I have to add that I was living in East Kilbride with my parents at the time and my wee sister was at Hamilton Academy then. She also voted SNP – see my earlier post @ 12.53.

  240. Robert J. Sutherland says:

    Artyhetty @ 01:11,

    Yeah, know only too well what you mean. (I’ve also lately joined the club.)

    I blame Nicola and the SNP, of course! =laugh= =cough=

  241. yesindyref2 says:

    @Cadogan Enright
    My example is completely true, but you are right as well. From the link I posted earlier:

    Filling the Last Vacancies
    If at any stage during the count, the number of continuing candidates, i.e. those not elected and not excluded, is equal to the number of vacancies remaining to be filled, those candidates are elected. In this event, no further transfers of ballot papers and votes are made, even if the last elected candidates have not attained the quota.

    There’s an actual example of one that went to last stage. The last elected would have been elected anyway, as you say, even if none of the last eliminated were transferrable. In this one though, he went over quota which was effectively irrelevant.

    https://north-ayrshire.cmis.uk.com/north-ayrshire/Portals/0/ElectionResults/2012Ward8Results.pdf

  242. yesindyref2 says:

    @Big Phil
    Wish him all the best, thanks! Oh, I’m not the one that went off to Canada.

  243. DerekM says:

    It is nothing to do with that Robert i just do not like STV,and what i was doing was looking for any slim advantage for the area i live in,as i mentioned we have already tasted yoon coalition.

    Oh and if it is called an election in the UK you can bet your last shiny bead some deceitful yoon will try to rig it.

    We can discuss electoral systems once we get indy and in those circumstances i might even change my mind about STV.

  244. Big Phil says:

    @
    yesindyref2. lol . 😉

  245. Robert J. Sutherland says:

    DerekM @ 01:31,

    It’s tough if you happen to be living in an area where there’s still a lot of residual opposition, especially if it’s waning most everywhere else. So I can appreciate your frustration if Tweedledumlab just swaps with Tweedleddeetory.

    It’s a fact of life that any PR system will give your opponents a fair shake, whoever they are. That’s intentional. I reckon that everyone who doesn’t vote like me is either a fool or a knave, but I have to concede that they have a right to be that way! =grin=

    But as John Curtice once rightly said, whatever the system, you just can’t beat a party that gets 50% of the vote. And at 47% the SNP is already damn close.

    Though in local elections there will always be local anomalies, for one reason or another. Personal vote, for one thing.

    We’re getting there, nonetheless.

  246. yesindyref2 says:

    @Robert J Sutherland “[Curtice] you just can’t beat a party that gets 50% of the vote. And at 47% the SNP is already damn close.

    Yes, and that’s where this is very important: “SNP: 47%, Greens: 4%”. And the unseen influence of Independents in that poll, a question that can’t even really be asked but amounts to 12% apparently, though including the likes of Orkney run by Independents.

  247. Ghillie says:

    Robert Peffers @ 11.42 pm and Artyhetty,

    Agree, asthma is terrifying and a killer.
    Air pollution aggrevates the condition to a dangerous degree.

    Your explanation, Robert, on our current cars not being designed to run so efficiently at lower speeds and therefore causing more pollution than ever before is an interesting one and then begs the question, how do we remedy that?

    I’m hoping one day to be able to afford an electric car which, by then, I expect to run off renewable and cleaner power. For now and from now, I should of course use our excellent public transport (alot of which is now hybrid) and walk alot lot more!

    I, and every other driver, really has to modify their habits for the sake of the asthma sufferers and everyone’s health.

    In the mean time, I still love the 20mph 🙂

    Also, I do not want to compare the death of a wee boy in Balgreen hit by a speeding vehicle, or the old lady on the Morningside Road, or the student crossing the Marchmont Road, against the deaths of asthma sufferers.

    All of those avoidable deaths are equally unacceptable and heartbreaking. I don’t think you meant it that way anyway.

    I have a feeling though that the original comment @ 8.18pm may have been a red herring to get folk moaning about Green policies, divide and conquer perhaps. I’m getting wary!

    Re STV and the Council Elections. Morag’s no nonsense explanation (and others’ comments too) certainly helped, but nearer the time I will seek advice from my SNP branch on how best to approach the voting choices for my locality.

    And it is my responsibility to find out as much as I can about all of the pro-indy candidates I might want to consider and form a hopefully well informed opinion on how suitable they are to do the job.

    Discussions here certainly aid that process. Thank you Rev Stu and thank you Wingers = )

  248. heedtracker says:

    Labour in Wales dirty tricking it? Surely not. Looks like Welsh speaking is as popular with yoon culture as Gaelic is with them in their Scotland region of greater England.

    http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/politics/leanne-wood-accuses-labour-candidates-12604880#comments-section

  249. Smallaxe says:

    Nana: Good Morning,

    Thank You, lovely links, Kettle’s on!

    Peace Always

  250. Hamsish100 says:

    Re the so called pro Indy supporters that are independents and want elected.

    Why are you not in the SNP, Greens or other Indy party?

    Did you assist in Indy ref 1 or just sit watching others doing the work?

    Do you think tagging along on the Indy wave will get SNP, greens and other pro indy votes to get you elected?

    Based on the truthful answers to the above you should spot the charlatan.

    Oh finally – what’s your price?

  251. heedtracker says:

    Agree, asthma is terrifying and a killer.
    Air pollution aggrevates the condition to a dangerous degree.

    FT this morning,

    £Toxic air now kills almost as many people as high cholesterol and even more than excessive salt or being overweight.”

    Diesel engine makers like VW are going to compensate diesel car buyers for their emissions test fraud but everyone knows how dirty diesel engine pollution really is. None of that prevents people actually buying diesel to save money.

    Clearly VW etc picked up on this and cheated, to make diesel owners feel better.

  252. Macart says:

    @Nana

    Fine selection again Nana. That canary piece especially, should be made required reading for every voter.

  253. Robert Louis says:

    I see some folks above, mentioning the Greens and the new waste of 2 million pounds of council tax money, to make ALL the streets 20mph in Edinburgh. This policy is anti-car dogma, pure and simple. Some of the streets are main routes, are very wide roads, not in residential areas, and the new limit is just daft. This is not little local roads in say a council estate where kids play, it is EVERYWHERE.

    Had the approach been targetted, then many drivers in Edinburgh such as myself might have understood, but no, it is just a blanket 20, on every street, day and night. This includes streets with no re cord of pedestrian fatalities, and no houses. To make matters even stupider, they have even gone to the cost of putting up 20mph signs in tiny wee narrow streets, which already have speed bumps – roads, where I can assure you, it is physically impossible to do much more than 15 – unless you are one of Edinburgh’s aggressive pedal cyclists (just use the pavements, when their are speed humps).

    In addition, it now means that bus journey across Edinburgh that may have taken 40 minutes in the past, will now take nearly an hour. Absolute genius.

    It is anti-car dogma, pure and simple, and a criminal waste of millions of pounds (cost is around 2 million) in tax payers money. I have yet to meet ANY driver in Edinburgh who doesn’t think it is sheer lunacy. The common points I’ve heard is, ‘we understood, outside schools at certain times of day etc..but this is major roads 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.’ AND ‘this is just the council punishing drivers for rejecting their mad-cap ‘congestion charge scheme a few years ago.

    I do hope we will NEVER see, anybody from Edinburgh council telling us they cannot afford social care or home helps, or libraries, because judging by the loony blanket 20mph scheme, they clearly have money to waste. For that reason, I’d vote tory in Edinburgh before even thinking of voting green. And If my local SNP councillors voted for this madness and waste of money, then I will NOT be voting SNP in the council elections. It is an absolutely outrageous waste of tax payers money, and demonises drivers.

    The cycling lobby in Edinburgh is immensely powerful, and road policy is now effectively dictated by them.

    AS robert peffers above suggested, it likely will not reduce pollution, and indeed for many cars, driving at or below 20, is not easy, as speed goes up and down easily (due to gearing), wasting fuel. The opinions of car drivers however, do not matter.

  254. Nana says:

    Good morning Smallaxe. Make mine a double espresso, I need a kick start!

  255. Ken500 says:

    It was Blair’s Gov which promoted diesel as cheaper. Gave concessions for diesel cars. Increased diesel cars in the UK. When they cause more emissions. More on the road. The UK Gov has done little. There is now a scheme promoted to be introduced. Diesel car scrappage scheme, £3,500 from the UK Gov for every diesel car changed to petrol. What about electric? Valuation of diesel cars has fallen. That happened to Rover when they were fraudulently taken over.

    Electric cars should be fine for shorter journeys. Especially two car households. Households virtually need a garage to house them for connection. Electric cars are four times cheaper to run. In the US car emissions are four times lower (20%) than Europe (80%). The majority drive petrol cars. Congestion is still a problem. The VW scandal will cost them dear. There are reports VW owners will get £3500 compensation. There are suggestions other car manufacturers are involved in car safety scandals.

  256. Nana says:

    @Macart

    Indeed, the canary has many good articles. Steve Topple’s articles are hard hitting, fact based journalism.

    I’ve followed Kerry Anne since she started Scriptonite Daily. She was very supportive of Scottish independence and was shocked and sad when Scotland voted No.

    I hope folks reading will share it widely.

  257. Robert Louis says:

    Ken500,

    As somebody who is into technology, I would love an electric car, but it cannot work for me, as I do not have a garage or driveway to plug it in. I could try next time around to buy a second hand hybrid, but they still seem expensive, and I’m not sure about servicing – I doubt my local garage would do it (with the complex hybrid electronics etc..).

    Hopefully, electric cars will become feasible for all of us, but right now, they are for people with money.

  258. heedtracker says:

    Yoon culture, broadsheet Graun, 2017, JK Rowling’s only got £500 million not a billion and hates Peirs Morgan, who says JK Rowling’s a billionaire and a meany.

    http://archive.is/4uC07

    On Tuesday, Valentine’s Day, Rowling tweeted a screenshot of a flattering description of her as an “intensely” private, successful author who has encouraged children “to read, feel inspired and be creative”.
    “Just been sent this! Could the writer let me know who he is! I’d love to thank him! #Valentines”

  259. Robert Louis says:

    I notice from REV;s twitter feed, that the outrageous fact that the police service in Scotland is the ONLY police force in the UK, which London makes pay VAT, still cannot get Westminster to see sense.

    I do wonder how that works out for the Scottish ambulance service. Unlike down in England, where ambulances are regionalised, in Scotland the ambulance service has always been a nationwide service (not regionalised). So does the Scottish ambulance service have to also pay VAT, or is this something that just applies to fire and police in Scotland? If that is the case, it kind of demonstrates that the reason why London is forcing Scottish forces to pay VAT, is purely down to their petty minded hatred of Scotland and the Scottish Government.

  260. orri says:

    The dilemma faced by any party in an STV election is not all transfers are bi-directional. That means that if, for instance, the Green and SNP candidate have just enough votes between them to go over quota a larger proportion of votes might go from the SNP candidate to the Green than in the other direction. So if the Green is eliminated before the SNP then the SNP might not be elected. Tactically it might be better for only 2 SNP candidates to stand rather than rely on a combined SNP/Green total.

    This isn’t Hollyrood where even a hint at an electoral alliance might be penalised and an unorganised voting strategy might do more harm than good. Overt hostility to voting for other candidates after you’ve exhausted all SNP ones is simply going to raise hackles and be counter productive. End of the day you can advise me on how you think I should vote but don’t fucking tell me how to do so.

  261. Socrates MacSporran says:

    I post the following without comment, it is from the best part of The Herald, today or any day – The Diary.

    No-win situation
    TODAY’S musing comes from a reader who emails: “ Even worse than arguing with a stupid person online is when an even stupider person joins in – but they’re on your side.”

  262. heedtracker says:

    This is probably enough planet toryboy stuff, BBC style, for one morn. SNP Scot gov plant trees? SNP trees bad.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-38972081

    Tree planting ‘threatening’ Scotland’s grand vistas
    By Kevin Keane
    BBC Scotland’s environment correspondent

  263. heedtracker says:

    No-win situation
    TODAY’S musing comes from a reader who emails: “ Even worse than arguing with a stupid person online is when an even stupider person joins in – but they’re on your side.”

    Socrates MacSporran, you have your moments but you’re not that bad.

  264. orri says:

    There’s no EU law that says the Treasury can’t put the combined Police Scotland or any other emergency service on the VAT exempt list. The reason it isn’t done despite there being plenty of warning was that it wasn’t what the unionist parties wanted so Gove put his foot down in order to strong arm Holyrood into not doing the job it was elected to do by the electorate of Scotland. Plain and simple spite is all.

  265. Ken500 says:

    Electric cars being 4 times cheaper to run could be a savings. £100 petrol – £25 electric. There are still practical, safe connection points to be considered.

  266. Robert Peffers says:

    @Artyhetty says: 15 February, 2017 at 1:11 am:

    ” … Horrifying figures there re Asthma deaths, very scary. Just hope that does not get worse”

    All scientific evidence is pointing to Asthma getting worse and the numbers of older people suffering Asthma in later life and more children is where the increases are greatest.

    ” … Regards the council elections, if Labour were to join the tories, we should never again tolerate their mantra that they are ‘socialist’.”

    It is not, “IF”, Artyhetty. Most councils that have the SNP as the largest party but are squeezed out of power by coalition councils are mainly Tory/Labour coalitions. To be truthful I’ve not looked at the complete figures for Scotland but that seems to be the way of things. Perhaps someone who does the statistical checks may tell us the real figures.

  267. bjsalba says:

    I live in the Highland Council area and my problem is with the word Local in Local Authority.

    An area close to the size of Belgium, and 79 councillors doesn’t feel at all local to me.

  268. Ken500 says:

    Police Scotland still saves £1Billions year. More could be saved if innocent people were not put in cells overnight on charges which cannot come to court. Instead of a letter being sent out for any court date. When any offence is dropped for malicious complaint. How many ‘charges’ never come to court?

  269. Robert Peffers says:

    @Morag says: 14 February, 2017 at 11:43 pm:

    ” … All you can do is vote for the SNP candidates first, and then if you want to, use later preferences to try to influence which of your “enemies” get the remaining seats.”

    I’ve never really given it much thought but it seems to me, that if you decide to vote other than SNP for later preference, the sensible thing to aid the SNP is to prefer the candidate less likely to get in.

    That should help balance out the Yoon voters who prefer candidates who would perhaps get in due to preference.

  270. Cuilean says:

    Liz G

    Get aff yer precious high horse.

    Facts are chiels that winna ding.

  271. Ken500 says:

    Just vote SNP/SNP/SNP.

    Green Party unpopular policies put people off voting for Independence. Greens collude with Unionist for remuneration and office to renege on their policies and destroy city centres. Wasting £Millions on grotesque projects and increasing traffic chaos and congestion. Then claiming there is not enough for education and essential services. In April the Scottish Gov can help stop vulnerable people being sanctioned.

  272. galamcennalath says:

    Quoting from Whatscotlanthinks …

    [IndyRef1] “75% of 16 and 17 year olds voted, compared with 54% of 18-24 year olds and 72% of 25-34 year olds. The turnout in all three groups is markedly lower than the estimate for 35-54 year olds (85%) and those aged 55 and over (92%).”

    YES could probably win IndyRef2 by simply getting 80-90% of under 35s out to vote!

    “54% of 18-24 year olds” is bloody awful, frankly.

  273. galamcennalath says:

    Labels. Labour do not like being called Red Tories. It’s effective because there is truth in it.

    I noted an über-yoon taking offence on Twitter of someone lumping the Tories and UKIP together. However, their positions have converged and I see little to distinguish them apart.

    Perhaps referring to the Conservatives as Tory-UKIP or similar might draw attention to some people just how far right the Tories have moved.

    It will also get right up noses! Ruth Davidson would not like being referred to as the leader of Scottish branch of UKIP/Tories. 🙂

  274. Proud Cybernat says:

    Question re STV system for May.

    Mrs PC, myself and my son will all be voting SNP. There may be three SNP candidates in our ward. Suppose we vote like this:

    MRS PC——MR PC——SON

    SNPX 1——SNPX 1—–SNPX 1
    SNPY 2——SNPY 2—–SNPY 2
    SNPZ 3——SNPZ 3—–SNPZ 3

    In the above we all vote the same three candidates 1,2 and 3. But would it be better id we mix it up a bit, like this:

    SNPX 1——SNPZ 1—–SNPY 1
    SNPY 2——SNPX 2—–SNPZ 2
    SNPZ 3——SNPY 3—–SNPX 3

    Anyone know the answer? My instinct suggest to mix up the preferences weightings for the three SNP candidates but would like it clarified.

    Ta.

  275. Roboscot says:

    I have just completed a survey on independence. Lots of questions on the UK Gov rejecting a second ref.

  276. Albert Herring says:

    My car’s got a thing called a gearbox, which means I can drive slowly, but still maintain an efficient engine speed.

  277. Albert Herring says:

    @Proud Cybernat

    You should be handed a leaflet at the polling station which will advise you exactly how to cast your 1-2-3.

  278. Robert Graham says:

    Looks like the National is attracting more than its share of nut cases and bat-shit loonies , quite apart from that ,the amount of plain wrong information , on Europe and Independence in General this is really quite disturbing , to think these people out there are spreading this pish , or to give it its proper definition Mis Information along with the Media & the BBC playing its well know roll no wonder there is not a change in opinion , we have a total wall of shite to demolish to try and breakdown to get through to people , i believe a lot of people given straight honest to goodness un propagandised facts they would choose Independence ,
    I wonder if Domestos would do the trick , well it does everything else even dissolves shite Ha Ha .

  279. Morag says:

    Just vote SNP/SNP/SNP.

    Green Party unpopular policies put people off voting for Independence….

    So what you’re saying is that you don’t have any preference for a Green to get a seat rather than Tory/Lab/LibDem. Or indeed an independent or UKIP. That’s your choice, but a lot of people may disagree.

    You certainly cannot harm the SNP’s chance of getting a seat by ranking the Green candidate under the SNP ones but ahead of the unionists.

  280. Morag says:

    It would be quite ironic really if the dishonest shenanigans perpetrated by the Greens at the 2016 election turn out to have pissed off SNP voters sufficiently to put them off giving the Greens a preference vote below the SNP candidates in 2017, and so deprived them of council seats they might have won if they’d played fair and honestly last time. Serves them right if that actually happens.

  281. starlaw says:

    galamcennalath 10. 11

    UKIP / TORIES Excellent idea. I can just picture Ruth the mooth trying to deal with that one (-:

  282. Robert Peffers says:

    @Ghillie says: 15 February, 2017 at 3:14 am:

    ” … Agree, asthma is terrifying and a killer.
    Air pollution aggrevates the condition to a dangerous degree. “

    There is much evidence that not only does pollution aggravate Asthma but often causes it. Seems that pollutants can cause allergies and allergies cause Athsma.

    ” … Your explanation, Robert, on our current cars not being designed to run so efficiently at lower speeds and therefore causing more pollution than ever before is an interesting one and then begs the question, how do we remedy that?”

    Engineers have done a great deal to make vehicle engines more efficient. Back in the 1950s/60s you were lucky if the family vehicle did better than 40MPG.

    Electronic engine management and fuel injection make a big difference too. Then there is the construction factor. The car used to be constructed on a heavy metal chassis. Then came the system of the strength coming from the actual structure, such as the box section sills.

    “I’m hoping one day to be able to afford an electric car which, by then, I expect to run off renewable and cleaner power.”

    Then you may appreciate that just running an electrically powered vehicle does not, in itself, mean less environmental pollution. All it means is the source of the pollution is taken from the vehicle in the town and moved to the power station. If the power station is nuclear that moves the pollution source from the power plant to where the nuclear fuel is mined, processed and transported around the World. If it is gas, oil or coal fired the pollution is still there.

    Not often realised is that renewable power is sourced by a fuel that makes its own way to the generator and there are no residues to cart away either.

    ” … For now and from now, I should of course use our excellent public transport (alot of which is now hybrid) and walk alot lot more!”

    I lived in Edinburgh when the city had the very best public transport system. Not only did it use electric trams but it had an inner and outer suburban rail system.

    The latter ran a couple of wee Tan-K steam engines and the inner and outer circuits were interlinked.

    the trains ran round the outer circuit then transferred to inner circuit and the two ran in opposite directions. No matter which direction you started with it went round both inner and outer circuits.

    The wonderful Edinburgh council did away with both trams and the suburban service. Just think if it had still existed the modern trams could be using it now and covering the whole city. The circuits included Waverley and Haymarket and also Leith Cally at the foot of Leith Walk, Newhaven and right through the Drylaw estates too.

    “In the mean time, I still love the 20mph
    Also, I do not want to compare the death of a wee boy in Balgreen hit by a speeding vehicle,”

    Neither do I, but ask yourself why the media makes big headlines of the road deaths but really ignores the Asthma and other pollution caused and aggravated illness and deaths. Could it be to put the blame upon the public and away from the authorities who really could have done a great deal more – and who still could really make a difference but concentrate instead upon such as the Trident system, armaments and wars.

  283. Fred says:

    Anent Ruth Davidson’s peculiar trip south? Whatever happens in Scotland the Tories are going nowhere & she knows it! She has never ran as much as a wulk-stall & never will in Scotland. She has already flipped from Glasgow to Edinburgh & self-interest dictates that she will do so again at the first opportunity. The future is Tory all the way south of the border, & her carpet bag’s ready for the Teddy Taylor option!

  284. starlaw says:

    This horrible tree planting the BUMs are on about this morning, haven’t they anything better to do with their time other than highlight the fact there’s nothing out there .. well apart from the odd grouse or two. I remember how great the BUMs thought tree planting was when it was the Flow Country in Caithness that was being destroyed by Tory Tax Break tree planting.

  285. Mike Johnson says:

    Who is on the left of sturgeon?

  286. Liz g says:

    Cuilean @ 10.00
    When there are those who go so low, that they gloat,for whom the bell tolls.
    Then on my high horse , being precious and takin the high road is exactly where I’m stayin.

  287. yesindyref2 says:

    @Morag
    The problem is if the Greens think like that too, and in wards where there are no Green candidates don’t vote, of if there are, just put Green or Green / Green and stop there.

    Does nobody any good – except the unionists.

  288. Graf Midgehunter says:

    Long second letter down from William Ross in todays National is either still blindly ignoring the real facts about indy Scotland’s future Brexit/EU arrangement or pure propaganda purporting to come from a “concerned” reader.

    It doesn’t matter how much we provide the truth/facts, they’ll just keep repeating their mantra.

    http://archive.is/MV0nJ

  289. Morag says:

    The problem is if the Greens think like that too, and in wards where there are no Green candidates don’t vote, of if there are, just put Green or Green / Green and stop there.

    Does nobody any good – except the unionists.

    You’re right of course. I don’t know if there will be a Green candidate here but I’ll certainly give them my second preference if there is.

    We’re only standing one candidate. We’re a racing certainty to get one of the three seats – possibly the second but for sure the third. The Tory is likely to get the first seat on transfers even if we top the poll. Then we’ll probably get the second seat. Then the second-string Tory is likely to be duking it out with the LibDem. That’s the reality. My actual real choice is whether to put the second-string Tory above the LibDem or vice versa. The Greens won’t get a seat even if I give them my second preference.

    Every ward will be different that way. But mose voters won’t analyse things in that sort of detail and will simply rank the individual candidates in the order they prefer them. Which will come to the same thing in reality.

  290. Dr Jim says:

    Tories+Ukip

    Tokip

    Labour+Tories

    Lab.ra.tories

  291. heedtracker says:

    Greens are chasing tory votes. Its a pact with the devil but its all they have.

    Greens in Aberdeen have wrought havoc but again, its all to get the tories to like them.

    AWPR for Aberdeen and north east was heavily obstructed by yoons o SLab, like future Sir Wullie Dont call Me Stupid Young, but Greens were out there, blocking away, further south, towards the bright lights of Arbroath even, blocking.

    All their objections delayed and probably added between £500m and £750m, to the total costs of Aberdeen’s new by-pass, let alone lost economic growth potential.

    And then we are forced to listen to likes of ACC boss, Wullie DOnt Call Me Stupid Young OBE, blame the SNP for all the hold ups. Its a mad, mad, mad yoon world.

    Vote Wullie.

  292. yesindyref2 says:

    @Morag
    That’s it exactly. I don’t know why people don’t like STV. As long as people use their preferences it means no vote is wasted, and the vote counts just 1.0000. Or 1.00000 – I forget if 4 decimal places or 5! But the simple rule is – it’s simple. There is no tactical voting, there is no voting against your own party, it’s simple. Just use all the preferences we want and it can do no harm.

  293. Robert Peffers says:

    @Cuilean says: 15 February, 2017 at 10:00 am:

    “Facts are chiels that winna ding.”

    They are, Cuilean.

    Trouble is idiots very often quote opinions, or they fail to understand what the facts actually mean. It’s called misdiagnosis.

    I already quoted the old belief of Doctors and Surgeons from way back in the 50s/60s that stomach Ulcers were due to diet, or, booze, and brought on by stress, worry or being over anxious.

    They tried everything from milk diets to major operations where they cut away large bits of ulcerated stomachs.

    All these false things were based upon what they thought were facts. They were not. Then it was discovered that the ulcers were actually caused by a stomach bug and a single dose of antibiotics completely cured stomach ulcers.

    You are basing your idiotic diagnosis on just such a misinterpretation of known facts.

    The facts are correct but YOU are idiotically, in spite of logical explanation, misinterpreting them and you are offending elderly independence supporters and their families.

    Never forget that, even today, there were/are people who believe the Earth is flat – because it looks flat to them.

    The president of the USA claims there is no Global warming in spite of evidence there is. We have posters today who think that slowing down traffic helps prevent pollution but slowing down traffic increases pollution.

  294. heedtracker says:

    Watch out for all those evil trees the evil SNP are planting out there, if you win.

    http://www.electricroadtrip.est.org.uk/

  295. Robert Peffers says:

    @Albert Herring says: 15 February, 2017 at 10:30 am:

    “My car’s got a thing called a gearbox, which means I can drive slowly, but still maintain an efficient engine speed.”

    So I suppose the many engineering studies that all report otherwise are all wrong because A Herring says so.

    Sheesh!

  296. Dan Huil says:

    @Graf Midgehunter 11:06am

    The W Ross letter was actually published yesterday [14th]. Today’s print edition of the National has a great reply [long letter] from Christopher Bruce.

  297. heedtracker says:

    FT news

    “The value of Warren Buffett’s famed investment vehicle has hit an all-time record of $412bn.”

    But is he as lovely and perfect as JKRowling?

  298. orri says:

    Studies that show that cars can actually move further and faster on average when the speed limit is reduced to 20mph are what count rather than hypothetical cases based on optimal driving conditions. There are places where the 20mph limit is an improvement. Accelerating to 30mph only to be stopped at the next set of lights and sit either with the engine off if you remember to or idling at 0mph sooking in the exhaust fumes of the car in front so no chance of efficiency so pumping out unburned fuel is less optimal than 20mph.

  299. Robert Peffers says:

    @Robert Graham says: 15 February, 2017 at 10:34 am:

    “I wonder if Domestos would do the trick , well it does everything else even dissolves shite Ha Ha .”

    Now, Robert, you have hit upon something there but here’s a wee fact for you.

    Domestos has a big selling point that it pushes for all it is worth on, among other things, on STV adverts and in Scottish daily newspapers.

    They claim that Domestos is great for dealing with lime-scale. Which it probably is. However, many Scottish households swear by Domestos just because it removes Lime-scale.

    Thing is that the Scottish domestic water supplies are invariably all soft water and it is called soft water because it does NOT contain the lime that causes lime-scale.

    Advertising is the exact same thing as brainwashing. Both implant false facts and ideas and non-factual things into people’s subconscious minds.

    The same selling points are made by Dishwasher tablets, Washing Machine powders and liquids yet there is no lime-scale in Scottish dishwashers or washing machines.

    Try telling that to a Scottish housewife and you will get the same kind of reaction you get from a Unionist voter. Facts often go over such people’s heads for the brainwashing is so deeply ingrained that even confronted by proven facts will fail to break through the wall of sheer bloody ignorance.

  300. Morag says:

    That’s it exactly. I don’t know why people don’t like STV. As long as people use their preferences it means no vote is wasted, and the vote counts just 1.0000. Or 1.00000 – I forget if 4 decimal places or 5! But the simple rule is – it’s simple. There is no tactical voting, there is no voting against your own party, it’s simple. Just use all the preferences we want and it can do no harm.

    I don’t like it because of all the shenanigans about how many candidates you should stand to maximise your chances, and going round the ward telling one lot of supporters to put candidate A first and another lot to put candidate B first.

    And I really don’t like it because of the by-elections. The way that works is that if a councillor from a party that didn’t top the poll dies or resigns, that party will almost certainly lose the seat at the by-election, indeed will lose if the voting pattern is the same at the by-election as it was at the general election. This seriously disadvantages the party and destroys the proportional representation.

    For example, if our councillor were to resign for some reason before the next council elections then the Tories would get the seat for certain, even though we were still polling as strongly as we had done at the general election. It’s pernicious.

  301. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Surely 1% for others is far too low given the preponderance of Independent candidates in local elections, especially in the North East, Argyle and Highlands?”

    People were able to tick “Others” in the poll, which is the category independents are in. They didn’t.

  302. gus1940 says:

    Robert Peffers @10.58

    Hi Robert – could you please elaborate on the running of the inner and outer sub lines in particular where you mention a changeover.

    I have always been of the impression that the system was simple – just a double track circuit with the clockwise line being the Outer and the anti-clockwise the Inner.

    RE the scrapping of the old tram system apart from the increase in road traffic a reason seldom mentioned was the massive postwar extension of the city with the new peripheral housing schemes.

    For the trams to cater for this it would have cost a fortune to extend the relevant lines to cover these schemes and to just tack on new bus services from the existing tram termini would not have made much sense economically or practically – a strong argument for scrapping the trams.

  303. crazycat says:

    @ Robert Peffers

    Thing is that the Scottish domestic water supplies are invariably all soft water and it is called soft water because it does NOT contain the lime that causes lime-scale.

    The public supply is soft. My private supply derives from a spring located in limestone and the water is (moderately) hard. I test it regularly with a reagent kit (potassium permanganate) and in order to avoid clogging up my direct system solar thermal panel, I put a Fernox softener in the water tank in the loft. This softener is available at B&Q and I don’t think they stock it just for me.

    I have considered arranging to be attached to the public supply, but that is more than a mile away at its nearest point, and while Scottish Water must connect me if I pay the full cost they are under no obligation otherwise.

  304. Fred says:

    The public supply varies, parts of Easter Ross had very hard water! probably good for you!

  305. Graf Midgehunter says:

    @ Dan Huil

    “The W Ross letter was actually published yesterday [14th]. Today’s print edition of the National has a great reply [long letter] from Christopher Bruce.”

    Many thanks for the info.
    I’m afraid I can’t get hold of any print copies in Frankfurt. 🙁

    I suppose it will be in tomorrows (or later on) online version.

    So much ignorance in one letter – makes you sick.

  306. crazycat says:

    @ Fred

    Thanks for that information – I would have been better saying that the bulk of the public supply is soft. I think that’s true.

    Either way “there is no lime-scale in Scottish dishwashers or washing machines” is certainly not true. (I’m not a “Scottish housewife” though – so I can ignore the generalization that followed.)

    Hard water is supposed to be better for drinking, which is partly why I put the softener in the tank, rather than treating the supply from where it enters my house.

  307. stu mac says:

    @Robert Peffers says
    ==============

    Your point about rebels and so on is moot since in practice the Hanoverians were the established government in the 18th century. But obviously the original line of Stuarts had been thrown out and by divine right of kings they were the true monarchs; however I tend to be against the divine right of kings and suspect the Stuarts if they’d regained power would have tried to impose it again and who knows what would have happened then.

    But the main point I want to make is the anti-Jacobites (and pro-Hanoverians) were as much in Scotland as in England. The divide being very much (though not completely) lowland/highland and Presbyterian/Episcopalian in Scotland. To paint it as a purely Scots/English thing is mistaken.

  308. Ghillie says:

    Hey Robert Peffers @ 11.42 am

    It was not my uninformed opinion that cars would be less polluting at 20mph but perhaps more my uninformed guess.

    I said ‘I would have thought the lower speeds would save fuel and reduce pollution’.

    And I do defer to someone who has a greater knowledge and understanding than me on whatever matter. I am prepared to learn 🙂 Though there does seem to be discussion going on that 20mph is possibly better for the local air quality.

    Hopefully air quality analysis, perhaps in a year’s time will give us some idea of the impact of the 20mph.

    I have heard that people have a better chance of surviving a crash or being hit by a vehical driving at that speed. That can’t be bad. And I think in town it is appropriate.

    I do stand by my subjective opinion that I love the much calmer feel to the traffic on the roads with the lower speed limits =) (Frustrating at times mibee but heyho I think in time we can adjust)

    Of course, the obvious answer to the rise in asthma caused by air pollution is to stop driving and remove the cause (please don’t throw things at me!) but I for one would miss my car and the freedom of the road and everything road tansport brings to us.

    The technology around less polluting vehicals and how to fuel them from cleaner renewable energy is improving continualy and hopefully will be available soon for all needs and all purses.

    Nuclear Power should not be refered to as a renewable or even green source of energy. It is not clean or safe at any stage in the process and has no part to play in the Indy Scotland I dream of.

    The source of this discussion though was originaly an attempt, imo, to put folk here off looking at other indy-minded candidates for Council election.

    I trust and believe in the abilities of those put forward by the SNP. And all candidates need to be scrutinised and deemed suitable for the job. First on my list of qualifications is their support for Independence.

    Independence first. Then we can all use our excellent skills as engaged citizins to keep our representatives accountable and working in the best interests of our own locales and our independent Nation = )

  309. Cuilean says:

    Robert Peffers

    Aye. So I did.

  310. Fred says:

    @ Crazycat, Edinburgh used to be known for local supplies of hard water, hence the brewing industry, Tennents in Glasgow ditto, although the water now comes from Loch Katrine. Whisky can also be made from hard water, Glenlivet for example & parts of Orkney & Shetland have hard water.

  311. George Wood says:

    Ghillie says:
    15 February, 2017 at 5:23 pm

    “The source of this discussion though was originaly an attempt, imo, to put folk here off looking at other indy-minded candidates for Council election.”

    I started the discussion regarding the Greens and non-Green policies. It wasn’t a blanket attempt to stop people voting for other indy-minded candidates, but rather to get people to think about the potential consequences of that vote.

    In my case, the Green movement in Edinburgh have a negative impact on my daily life and imho are contributing significantly to the congestion problem rather than reducing it and therefore I won’t vote for them.



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