What they’re trying to sell you
It’s come to a pretty pass indeed when the Telegraph is the bastion of truth.
Because if you listened to the Unionist opposition and media today, you’d come away with a very different impression of what’s just happened.
The tweets below, for example, are from Scottish Labour’s communications director (and former Scottish Daily Mail political editor) Alan Roden:
No, you’re not reading that wrong. He really is celebrating the fact that Labour just lost control of Glasgow City Council for the first time in nearly 40 years, and congratulating “all involved” on Labour being kicked out of its most impregnable citadel and recording the party’s worst Scottish council election result in a hundred years.
It seems to have passed Mr Roden by entirely that this huge “swing to Labour” has somehow resulted in Labour losing 11 seats in Glasgow while the SNP gained 12 and the Tories and Greens also increased their representation.
Still, he wasn’t as happy as Rachael Hamilton, a Tory list MSP who was only elected a year ago but is already so confident that this week she stood down from her Holyrood seat in order to contest a constituency one. She was REALLY excited.
Coming first by a 155-seat margin is an interesting definition of “crushing defeat” for the SNP to come to terms with, but it definitely seems to be the Tory line.
And it’s one the press seems to have taken on board.
If you were a passing space alien glancing at the Scottish media you could easily be forgiven for thinking that the Tories had won the election rather than coming a distant second, particularly when the Guardian put the SNP’s utterly unambigous victory in inverted commas like it was a dodgy quote the paper was disassociating itself from.
All of which perhaps explains the unfortunate guest on the BBC’s papers review on Friday night who read the coverage and concluded that Ruth Davidson’s party had “taken Glasgow”, rather than ending up in a dismal third place with 9% of the vote and one more seat than the Greens.
(We should note in fairness that the guest, Walthamstow asset manager Katie Martin, was embarrassed and apologetic about it later. It’s an understandable error if you’re an outsider actually getting their information from the papers, or indeed from the BBC.)
The Tory press pushed hard on the idea that the result was a blow to independence.
But the problem with that line is that while the Tories certainly did do very well on a “NO MORE REFERENDUMS!” platform, Scottish Labour did really, really badly on the exact same platform at the same time.
What actually happened – as the Telegraph’s image at the top of this page so concisely identified – was that the vote for the No More Referendums Party realigned itself from Labour to Tory. It didn’t get any bigger. The Tories’ gains were almost entirely taken straight from Labour, not the SNP.
“Sturgeon’s nationalist juggernaut” had in fact carried on like it had hit a wasp on the motorway at 70mph, improving its position in the council elections by every possible measure – more votes, bigger vote share, more seats, much bigger lead over the second-place party, first place in more councils – while Ruth Davidson stopped to loot Kezia Dugdale’s horrific car-crash behind it.
Amazingly, the BBC is still sticking to its line that the SNP actually lost seven seats when it increased its number of councillors from 425 to 431, a figure based on an unpublished, “estimated” version of the 2012 result supposedly created by the BBC itself which even their Scottish political reporters know nothing about.
But even the Daily Mail, the Express and the Scotsman weren’t buying spin that mad.
As far as we can tell only the Daily Record swallowed it, with the Herald, Sun and Times joining the others in sticking to the more traditional interpretation of arithmetic where 431 is a bigger number than 425.
The Guardian esoterically went its own way, suggesting in two articles that the SNP had simultaneously won 31 seats and lost 31 seats.
It’s weird enough when parties and media try to rewrite history long after the event in the hope of catching out the unalert reader. But when they try to tell people the exact opposite of what they just saw happen with their own eyes mere hours ago, it’s a tougher message to flog, and even Scotland’s most right-wing papers cared enough about the tattered remnants of their credibility not to follow the BBC’s lead.
And as for Alan Roden, Rachael Hamilton and David Mundell, they might want to take Katie Martin’s advice and have a wee nap. It was a long day.
Juncker was right.
The Tories – all shades – are delusional.
Heh, gotta luv the poor dears.
Yesterday The tories benefit at the catastrophic expense of Labour. The SNP held firm and marginally improved becoming, by some margin and by any sane observer, the winner.
So message understood. Yoons stab each other in the back over their own vote and the SNPs mandate at local authority level is as strong as ever.
Ruth and the Tories are now front and centre as the face of the union in Scotland. No more Labour to hide behind Ruthie. 🙂
It looks like a new standard for UK elections has now been set – it’s not over till the BBC publish the notional results.
Showing the SNP ‘losing’ 7 seats when it had actually increased its real number (absolutely and proportionally) might seem no big deal, but it crucially set the tone for the majority of the reporting.
I’ve calculated my licence fee using the notional method and it turns out the BBC owe me £7. Result!
I’m not certain you need to wait till Monday to find out the methodology used by the Conservative Broadcasting Corporation to calculate the seat losses for the SNP Stu. The calculations required have been leaked. Here they are. 😉
https://plus.google.com/u/0/photos/photo/101639850456727702167/6416982134332469906?icm=false&authkey=CMDzi8WoxYS3IA
Needless to say these calculations were also used by other news “sources” but as they are all not so good at adding 1 + 1 they all came to different results … naturally. 😀
The BBC is losing all credibility on its ability to report impartially on anything to do with the constitution in Scotland. It is imperialism plain and simple.
The good thing about what Alan Roden and his like (see Kezia’s tweets as well)are doing is confirming themselves as a complete failure and utter lost cause. I don’t know if it’s just himself or others that he’s trying to convince, but if that’s all they can do in the face of such a crushing defeat, then they really are bereft of any constructive ideas.
It makes them look really, really stupid.
More evidence that we are closer to an actual farcical free press than ever before! This shit is pre-planned by those that seek to undermine the truth, thus creating a dumbed down electorate. Corrupt facists that know no morals that align to fair play and common decency. Time will come for reeping what they merrily sow!
“Voters send message to Independence-supporting parties by increasing their seats.”
is a headline waiting to be written.
Modus operandi for future BBC journalists
1. Establish facts
2. Twist them to suit your narrative
3. Broadcast twisted narrative.
4. Repeat with input from other uninformed sources.
well covered Rev, ponsonby does the same with the broadcast media , i commented last night that i was glad i popped in to get the latest news , as it appeared by a few glances at the TV news the SNP had been gubbed and ruthie was triumphantly touring scotland .
We are well and truly in the grip of alternative news, normal service will not be resumed its their media , their news .
what a f/kd up country its the Matrix on stilts , i always thought the plot was far fetched NOPE ITS REAL AND WE ARE LIVING IT .
Well,at least that newspaper reviewer has a perfect description for all this on her twitter bio.
Vomiting Camel Asset Management
Surely somebody has a picture of Rapeclause Ruth on a camel – or even an alpaca.
I mentioned yesterday that lesley Riddoch stated that rather reaching “peak snp” we could be looking at “peak tory”
They just do not get it.
The referendum mandate is tucked in the back pocket all ready to go.
And that was BEFORE the latest crushing victory this week.
The SNP victory was achieved by them stating it was SPECIFICALLY NOT about independence, but in fact about local issues.
The unionists made it an anti referendum election and were routed on that basis. (And yes, losing by 155 seats is being routed).
In just a few weeks, the unionists will have ANOTHER Anti referendum election campaign, and again, with a mandated referendum still snug in their back pocket, the SNP will run an election campaign on protecting Scotland from the tories.
Sky News reckon the SNP, based on our ‘crushing defeat’ on Thursday there…(ha) will win 54 Seats on June 8th, which will surely be the end to the indy dream…(oh ma sides).
More than one Tory seat will be proclaimed as a stunning tory victory and the BBC will declare that, based on 1983 boundary changes the SNP will be “Down 73 seats”…..
Those old enough will remember the day when politicians considered it honourable to resign from Parliament if was discovered they had lied on any matter, however insignificant. There would be outrage, particularly from the media if they didn’t. All that has happened is that the media – television and print – have been politicised in their own way, through ownership or influence and controlled by those they once held to account.
Let them talk about it any way they want, soon we will really give them something to talk about.
As I pointed out on the last thread, sadly Wiki seems to have swallowed the BBC massaging of the 2012 result and the ‘notional’ loss of 7 Councillors.
I would like to see during the General Election campaign SNP interviewees make reference to ‘London Calling’ when getting a hostile interview or at the start of live interviews.
Notional—- theoretical,conceptual, not existing in reality.
Like those missing seats really.
Thanks Nana for your post on a different Wing’s thread 6th.May 10:15 am
“Some more on the Ferguslie Park result
https://www.facebook.com/karen.donnell.52/posts/10207007597826798 “.
Regarding Ferguslea Park result and it’s reporting by the Mainstream Media—Paper and Pixels. Well worth a watch.
A big thanks Nana. 🙂
The SNP elected candidates came 1st and 2nd at the Count.
The Labour elected candidate came 3rd at the Count,and
the elected Tory candidate came in 9th !!
YES NINTH. !!
Link is a ‘PHONE FILM by someone who was there!
I suppose it’s a bit 1984 -esque where 2+2 = 5.
I just hope there is a ‘silent majority’ out there next time the big question is asked that they are reasonable people and they can see the bleak future a Brexit Britain faces and seize the opportunity to take control for themselves rather than abdicate responsibility and have others dictate to them.
The unfortunate thing is, I have my doubts that majority exists.
I’m losing the will to live, does that count as actually winning then
We could all join the Tories and defy science logic and maths
The life of Brian comes to mind
Always look on the bright side of life (They’re whistling)
Though see Patrick Harvie has taken the increase in Green Councillors as a signal to stand for Westminster at the GE. He would need to stand against an SNP MP.
Now the SNP with 120,000 members, 56 MPs, majority of Holyrood MSPs, 431 Councillors, biggest vote share and FM considered 2nd most powerful woman in the UK and lauded abroad, doesn’t get listened too by Westminster.
I’m not sure what plan Patrick has to get rid of the Tories and why they would listen to him in Westminster, they don’t listen to nonTory MPs from England and definitely don’t listen to any other than proUnion MPs from Scotland.
It sounds like Patrick has a dose of superego and hubris.
Posted this on the last thread but worth repeating.
The job now for all of us who find our Local Authorities have a Fascist, Racist, OO, Ex Kipper etc. representing us now need to ensure we get their views out in the mainstream.
Now these creatures have crawled out from under the rocks and out of the sewers into the light we need to ensure that the light stays on them.
Maybe, just maybe, voters who paid more attention to the Party rather than the individual may realise who and what they’ve put into power.
Who knows if these abhorrent individuals continue to behave as they did before the Local Elections that may end up compromised and I’d fancy our chances at any By-elections.
Let them reap what they’ve sown.
The thing is, this is what we are up against Scotland, and it is only going to get worse.
We really do need to get out of this destructive union as soon as possible before it is too late.
The only power we have to stand up to this corrupt system is to send a very clear message to Westminster come June the 8th, because believe you me, if we do not, we will never hear the end of it, and they will make us suffer dearly.
If they can turn a Council Election victory for the SNP into a defeat, can you imagine what they will do if we lose a few seats or more at Westminster. I dread to think.
I remember they used to say Celtic had to beat 12 men to win, and score more than double Rangers goals to get recognised as winners. Same for the SNP. The establishment decide when you win not the voters apparently.
thanks for the links re- ferguslie park , well worth a view and knocks on the head this propaganda pitch of even poor people have rumbled the SNP ,i just wonder if these other baffling results that have been gleefully been used to rubbish anything SNP , i wonder if the same or similar circumstances have occurred in these other areas .
Why don’t the BBC have a notional result of seats with first past the post or perhaps they could have notional result of people who are unhappy with the BBC’s interpretation of reality.
How many first preference votes did the Tory scum win. Let them have their pathetic moment. The GE is only 4 weeks away.
Remember just about everyone of their Msps lost as first choice. Their numbers look better due to PR. WM actually suits the Snp as they don’t give away pretendy seats. You actually have to win.
The SNP need to push WM as indy ref increased mandate and get the yes voters off their arses. I met countless people who were big yes voters and thought the council elections were not important. It was because the media use any sign of weakness against us.
Craig Murray is inundated with readers of his Ferguslie Park article. Good. he is hoping people can copy and post it elsewhere to take some of the load. Not sure how that would work but posting this here in hope that it helps:
https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2017/05/beating-mainstream-propaganda/
The residents of Ferguslie Park are denying all responsibility for the vile calumny that they have voted for a Tory. Seems that a Community Activist with the same name as the Tory was also standing. Lots of people probably got confused and voted for the wrong person. I wonder if they can have a revote?
Personally I cannot stop laughing every time I think of Mundell saying the Tories came a very poor second and there was only one winner today.
Mind you, for once, he was 100% correct – for that one winner was the SNP by the proverbial country mile.
What on earth. The Tories in Scotland seriously deluded. Still no mention of the different STV in Scotland. Imposed on Scotland by Unionists to prevent Scotland getting the democracy that it wants. Ruth Davidson claiming it was about local services. Having promoted the local elections as a referendum on another IndyRef. Already decided by Holyrood.
Hope the LibDems realise it was SNP votes that put them in. Ranking them higher than the Tories. They do not go into collusion with the Tories at local level.
Tory local constituency advice meetings should be interesting in some areas.
In England/Wales the Tory councils will have to imposed the Tory cuts to essential services. Cuts to education, social and healthcare. The poison chalice. Tory council were already complaining, until they got bought off. Kent.
Nicola should push the point… “right, now that the ‘no more referendums parties’ have failed to show any additional support, I plan to begin Indy campaigning”
Or, perhaps wait until the GE is over 🙂
Boundary change what if’s? Ok so what if the voting system in Scotland had been the same as used in most of rUK – first past the post. Strangely I haven’t seen any mention of Scotland’s much fairer voting system in the MSM, nor how the parties would have faired using FPTP. I won’t hold my breath.
It’s a full time job just trying to keep up with all the lies!
Had an email from despairing family member in NE England, this morning, asking ‘why have the tories taken over Scotland.’ Yep, it’s how they tell them isn’t it.
Apparently Labour’s mayor, in Middlesborough lost I presume to a tory.
Oh god I had to reply with a very long email explaining it all, and thankfully then sent on this fab article and I hope family member will read it and told them to share it. Why, oh why, do people follow the bbc, and take their lies as the gospel truth. I know, no point asking.
Have a good Saturday all. I think we did pretty damn well considering it’s wall to wall SNP bad, day in, day out, on the hour, every hour.
@Paul says: 6 May, 2017 at 12:31 pm:
“The BBC is losing all credibility on its ability to report impartially on anything to do with the constitution in Scotland. It is imperialism plain and simple.”
I think you are mistaken, Paul. The BBC has lost all credibility on every subject under the Sun.
I saw a Labour Voting neighbour who was watching the BBC weather report open their window and stick their hand out, palm up, to see if it was raining.
The BBC forecaster had just claimed it was a brilliant sunny, cloudles day in Scotland.
Mundell: Second = winner.
Only in a weird parallel Yooniverse.
Just a wee bit of inforomation for folks about Dumfries and Galloway that well known haunt of the utterly useless tea boy (Junior Grade) to Feartie McFeartie.
First of we sti8ll have a Tory council … BAD news however we did INCREASE our number of SNP councillors by one to 11 … GOOD news. 😉
Secondly our local SNP group attended recent Lockerbie and Langholm Farmers Markets. In both cases they fully expected a lot of anti SNP stuff to be thrown their way. This did NOT happen. They were in effect welcomed with open arms. EVERY farmer they talked to was a YES supporter and they all talked about other farmers they knew who were also YES.
I reckon we owe Feartie McFeartie a great dod of THANKS. Basically because of the uncertainty she has thrown up over the Common Agriculture Policy and the E.U. farming payments they are almost to a man/woman now either already YES or moving steadily to YES.
In the past it has been, in no small part, down to the farmers who have seen the tea boy elected in Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale.
As the farmers appear to moving en masse to YES I hope we can utilise this movement to kick Scruffy oot on his earse in June. I’m pretty sure the farmers are not blind to what is going on in Westminster and can see just how useless Scruffy is whilst how much work the SNP have put in and the fight they put up for Scotland.
Win or lose on June 8th I am pretty confident now that the next independence referendum result in Dumfries and Galloway WILL be significantly different to that in 2014!
Ms Hamilton will contest a Holyrood by-election not a Westminster seat.
I saw a tweet earlier today about Shettleston that folks might find “interesting.” I’ll do my version of paraphrasing thingy here.
“There are reports coming from Shettleston that people are getting rid of all their dugs and are planning to replace them with dogs.” 😀
Patrick Harvie to stand as MSP in Glasgow North? Is the man crazy or decisive. Stand in Labours Murray seat and you have a deal.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39828824
The unionist media sure have weird ideas on how to win over the average independence voter over to their cause. ROFL. 😀
If the snp get anything well over 30 seats on June the 8th that’s a majority and a mandate to declare independence. No p*ssing about with media and Westminster rigged referendums,just declare indy . it’s called democracy.
Just a wee update to my previous post about the farmers in D&G.
Our SNP candidate, Mairi McAllan not only went to Galsgow Uni to study Law (seems to me Glasgow Uni is the place to be if you want to be a SNP politician these days 😀 ) but her partner is a beef and sheep farmer. Looks like we may have the farming angle covered this time folks. 😉
http://www.dng24.co.uk/19267-2/
I saw something earlier about increased vote share for SNP of 75,000 across Scotland. Anyone got a link or recall finding same information?
I think all the rural areas Aberdeenshire, Perth & Kimross, Highlands and Islands should be heavily leafleted by SNP on what WTO Tariffs will mean for them combined with a loss of SFP.
The facts on Westminster SFP actually awarded versus the subsidies the EU actually awarded based on land types would also help show them how they’ve been used.
1700 Euros per tonne for lamb exports for example might focus their minds.
Good to hear about D&G though.
There is no more important place than the Scottish Parliament to represent the people of Scotland, said Patrick Harvie
I’m sure folk will make their own minds up
A big thank you for your last two hugely informative articles about BBC and press coverage of the local elections.
There was a huge increase in Tory votes in the Calton area of Glasgow. Doesn’t this represent a swing to Tory from what would normally have been a unionist Labour vote in a hard core protestant area where you can find members of the Orange Lodge?
Isn’t it the case that the Tory press will ignore the sectarian phenomenon in Glasgow as a factor because they want to portray the Conservative party as having won votes on their own policy merits rather than because of diehard sectarian perspectives?
K1 says:
6 May, 2017 at 2:41 pm
I saw something earlier about increased vote share for SNP of 75,000 across Scotland. Anyone got a link or recall finding same information?
Here you go K1. 🙂
https://twitter.com/PeterMurrell/status/860605684194451456
Sadly Labour & Tory Voters in Scotland are now completely interchangeable. If we want independence we need to convince around 5% of them of the benefits of Independence.
You simply cannot make it up. The BBC must be terrified of what is coming.
Another outstanding election for the SNP with more to come.
Just got done tapping away at some numbers for Aberdeen:
In 2012 the SNP had the most first preference votes but got two fewer seats than Labour. Now in 2017 and they are the largest party by 8 seats.
The SNP have also have a 5769 (33.68%) increase in first preference votes and increased their lead five times over with 4606 more votes between first and second place.
2012:
SNP 17131 31.29%
Lab 16264 29.71%
Lead 867 1.58%
2017:
SNP 22900 32.41%
Con 17427 24.67%
Lead 5473 7.74%
@ inkall – well done you. Where did you get the figures for the first preference votes? I’ve been searching around to see if I could find info.
It’s quite educational. I had to watch a maths video to refresh my memory on how to turn a fraction into a percentage. Quite enjoying this DIY election analysis.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uf-Rl1e2I4Q&spfreload=5#t=507.819885
The old mantra about not comparing apples and oranges also applies to elections. Changes/trends only have meaning when comparing council 2012 to 2017. Same with Holyrood 2011 to 2016 and WM.
The underlying reasons relate to different turn outs and how relevant any particular vote is to constitutional issues.
The SNP vote held up well. The main conclusion is simply that.
There certainly are no negative implications for ScotRef!
Applied to the forthcoming general election, the SNP vote should hold up then too. Losses in seats with FPTP will come about because of the focusing on Unionists onto one party.
Again, the outcome will mean ScotRef plans stay on track, despite shite from the msm.
I feel you guys in Scotland, you are up against some seriously devious opposition. I think you have to in some way neutralise the BBC if independence is to be realised. Watching on, wishing you well from ireland.
‘It’s easier to fool people than to convince them that they have been fooled.’
Mark Twain
I see the new tactic is yo compare vote share with 2015 and 2016,even though these are different elections with different voting methods and different stakes. I wonder why they’re not comparing to 2007 and 2012 LEs…?
I suppose whatever keeps them in the matrix…
Never expected anything less esp when they can’t get weather right anymore
anybody see the first preferences breakdown yet?
@Ian
As I had all the figures in front of me for Aberdeen I was going to try and see roughly how FPTP would turn out. Sadly without knowing how multiple seat wards would be positioned, if people would vote more along party lines and if parties wouldn’t run multiple candidates it isn’t really possible.
If people did vote along party lines (combining votes by party for each ward) then the SNP would have won 9 of 13 Wards. If kept per candidate then SNP 4, Tory 5, Lib Dem 3, Labour 1 as a fair few would have had same party candidates knocking each other out with split votes.
@Capella
Aberdeen City Council’s result website has the first preference vote for each individual candidate so I broke the calculator out.
Did the same for the 2012 results on the site too after I discovered (totally by chance) that the Wikipedia page for the 2012 result has the Greens with 9 votes fewer than they should have, the rest did turn out to be accurate though.
2012:
SNP 17131 31.29%
Lab 16264 29.71%
Lib 8293 15.15%
Ind 6117 11.17%
Con 5285 9.65%
Grn 1351 2.47%
NF 249 0.45%
UKIP 58 0.11%
Total 54748
2017:
SNP 22900 32.41%
Con 17427 24.67%
Lab 12526 17.73%
Lib 10784 15.27%
Ind 5195 7.35%
Grn 1538 2.18%
UKIP 202 0.29%
NF 39 0.06%
Solid 28 0.04%
Total 70639
Sorry for the messy formatting, I was just jotting them down in notepad rather than having a spreadsheet good to go.
Surely any labour voters with a bit of common sense must see that they are doomed to failure with their present stance as Tory stooges.
There is a place for a real Scottish Labour Party in an independent Scotland but with their present policies of attacking everything SNP they are only playing the Tory game and will shrivel away.
Perhaps a long overdue change of leadership, which must be inevitable after the GE, will lead them to the obvious conclusion. SNP policy should be to encourage them to come to our camp, and we only need about 5% of them to see the light and we are home and dry.
Meanwhile the “branch office” is a total irrelevance.
Arbroath1320 – sounz lik thoan Dumfries & Galloway fermurrs, urr stertin tae huv thochts, thurr richt weiy.
Izit no ah Kelso fermurr, haudin yoan Berwickshurr sait, izit stauns?
Re election breakdown. no idea if I’m searching correctly but here’s what I have so far.
http://www.renfrewshire.gov.uk/2017LocalGovResults
http://www.highland.gov.uk/info/799/elections_and_voting/371/elections/4
https://www.westlothian.gov.uk/article/13871/Council-Election-results-2017
http://www.edinburgh.gov.uk/info/20112/election_results/1556/local_government_election_results_2017
See the thing is that the Telegraph can be accurate when it wants, it just has some complete mouldy bloomers write for it, and right-wing distorts too much news.
Similar for the BBC, that Nick Eardley is what the whole BBC should be like – someone in search of accuracy and truth.
I didn’t see any of the coverage, that’s a caveat, but it seems that Brian Taylor who I usually like to be honest, really soiled himself this time.
Pass the bogroll, we’re going to need a lot more.
@ Inkall – thanks. Unfortunately, Aberdeenshire hasn’t recorded any votes at all. Just who was elected and in which round of votes they were elected. Must all be off for the weekend and the computer switched off for a rest. But we wingers never rest!
Pravda.
Patrick Harvey and the Scottish Green party as a whole have no choice but to stand in at least the majority of seats in Scotland in order to secure a place in any televised leaders debate.
The fun part is that by doing so you can then point at the combined SNP/Green share of the vote if silly buggers are played regarding it having to be greater than 50%
In addition he can take the same stance as Nicola in that there’s already a mandate for Indyref2? secured by both parties at Holyrood so they’re treating the GE as simply that.
Hamish100 @ 14:13,
That’s an odd one, if true. But maybe it makes some kind of sense. He’s perhaps thinking that he can dislodge support from remaining Labour voters who can’t bring themselves to go all the way to the SNP. After the local elections, the Labour vote could crumble further. He has no realistic chance of winning, and there’s no chance of any other party winning besides Labour or SNP, so maybe he reckons that he can differentially hurt Labour more than the SNP. Maybe take a few LibDem votes likewise.
It depends I suppose on how many SNP votes last time were anti-Labour that might not be so certain for the SNP next time anyway.
A great article by Wee Ginger Dug here:
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2017/05/04/the-land-that-we-live-in/
I would like to paraphrase parts of it (in bold) in an attempt to try and get into the mindset of the hard-core, Loyalist Tory voter and why, in spite of all the ills in our society that they must surely see all around them, still they will do nothing about it and remain resolute to their cause. I think it goes something like this:
“We’re living in a land which has gone insane.
But it matters not, for all that is good lies within our precious Union.
We’re living in a land where people defend a government that demands that women give proof of rape in order to receive tax credits for a third child, a land which treats the decision to have children as a private investment and not as an investment in the future that benefits the public good.
But this is a land of hope and of glory; a land of religious tolerance for my protestant brethren, a land in which we are free to proclaim our beliefs in the streets up and down this glorious land.
We’re living in a land which discourages low paid families from having children while at the same time demonising the immigration that low birth rates will demand in order to maintain the economy.
But the beat of our drums, the shrill notes from our flutes will send the enemy a-fleeing.
We’re living in a land where it’s the poor who are condemned, not poverty.
And as we march, shoulder-to-shoulder, the tunes of our fathers transcends all of these ills and will remove us from this poverty. Keep the faith.
We’re living in a land where it’s considered normal that working people don’t earn enough to feed their families and have to resort to foodbanks while the richest who profit from their labour get ever richer.
In unity and obedience, we find our strength. Knowing ones place is not weakness, it is power. Accept your master, obey your Queen for she serves you.
We’re living in a land where the refusal of the EU to concede to every demand of Theresa May is condemned as threats and bullying.
We are the people. Our will shall prevail. The beat of our hearts and of our drums will never surrender.
We’re living in a land where all these cruel insanities and more are defended by otherwise rational people because they’re part and parcel of the precious Union.
And her glorious Majesty, Defender of the Faith, resplendent in dignity, shall prevail forever in the defense of our glorious, unending Union. Without Union we have nothing. Without Her Majesty we are lost.
We’re living in a land where people defend the Union but don’t care what sort of Union they’re defending.”
It is Her Majesty’s Union we defend with all of our being. It is all that matters. Not food, nor shelter, nor love. Our children may go hungry but they go hungry in defense of something much more precious–the UNION of our two nations under Her Glorious Majesty. To the last beat of our drum and the last note of our flutes, we will defend it to the end. Rule Britannia.
I will never understand the mindset of such ‘Loyalists’ when it is patently obvious to every clear thinking person in this country and beyond, that the ruling classes, including her esteemed majesty, don;t give a flying fuck about them. And STILL they OBEY.
Head burlin’ at their rank stupidity.
NE Fife elections
NEF 2010 General Election
Lib (Ming) 17,763
Tory 8,715
Lab 6,869
SNP 5,685
UKIP 1,032
Turnout 64%
NEF 2011 Holyrood Election
SNP (Rod) 11,029
Lib 8,437
Tory 5,618
Lab 3,613
UKIP 979
Turnout 50%
NEF 2015 General Election
SNP (Gethins) 18523
Lib 14179
Tory 7373
Lab 3476
SG 1387
Ind 325
Turnout 72%
NEF 2016 Holyrood Election
SNP (Rod) 11463
Lib 14924
Tory 5646
Lab 2026
Turnout 63%
NEF 2017 Local Election 5 wards combined
SNP 7224
LIB 10032
CON 6568
LAB 1658
SGR 1355
IND 743
about 52% turnout
this seat will be very difficult for us to win
O/t . Watching BBC Question time from Wigan , I really hope that this audience is not a reflection of English people in general, we had Leanne Wood of Plaid Cymru being booed when she mentioned something about Wales , ok a bit ignorant but there you go, we then had a question about whether Jeremy Corbyn was getting a bit of a bad press, Leanne Wood agreed and sited herself and Nicola Sturgeons treatment, well that set them off louder booing this time , what a bunch of bloody cretinous arses , maybe it was because Nutjob Nuttall was on the panel who knows.
The Tory party as someone said recently it might have been Alex Salmond , they haven’t finally overcome UKIP they have become them . Well that’s unsurprisingly accurate .
I think so Footnurt. To be honest I think the clues were there for those who paid any attention. By this I mean the wonderful skelping Scruffy received at the last BBCQT from Glasgow. A wonderful woman stated she was a NO voter which brought a large grin to Scruffy’s ugly mug. This was short lived though cause she immediately went on to say not any longer. She was a farmer from down this way and everyone she knew in the farming community were now YES. Grin well and truly swiped off Scruffy’s face.
As far as Berwickshire is concerned Calum Kerr was in the I.T. world before becoming M.P. from what I can tell.
Here are the Fife Council results:-
https://www.fifedirect.org.uk/news/index.cfm?fuseaction=news.display&objectid=A2B88F4F-DFC6-F672-C020C50F9705E308&promo=6FB715C0-DF5B-B459-0C6D793CB2601407#
Orri says:
6 May, 2017 at 4:11 pm
Patrick Harvey and the Scottish Green party as a whole have no choice but to stand in at least the majority of seats in Scotland in order to secure a place in any televised leaders debate.
rubbish argument from the greens, they are excluded from the stv one already
if they stand in any of the marginals and split the vote, hell mend them. have they not learned anything?
The understandable reaction of Katie Martin in reviewing the papers for the BBC illustrates only too well the virulently toxic nature of the Tory propaganda machine that is the Dead Tree Scrolls. She was fooled by the onslaught, at least for a short while.
But many ordinary readers, especially those with no access to social media, will be left with a lingering impression that the SNP is faltering and the Tories are winning.
That’s the drip-drip-drip of the poison they are using to confuse us while they go about their evil plan to totally wreck our future.
That headline in today’s Herald is particularly obnoxious, given that their editorial position on indy used to be that Brexit would be the defining moment for a change of direction in support. Instead they have revealed themselves as pathetic cringing Unionist Tory collaborators.
btw
you can use the ward results for your area to calculate what the result would have been for your ge constituency
@Brian Powell
It may have passed you by but a Green TOPPED THE POLL in a Glasgow ward, I suspect contained in the constituency in question.
Why should not a second Yes party contest a seat?
I take it you SNP fan Bhoys are anti democrats and worse than that one the SNP to be untrammeled tyrants of Scotland able to determine who is allowed to stand and who isn’t.
Note last GE it wasn’t the Greens who scuppered the progressive alliance idea, it was the SNP themselves. So the SNP in not being willing to play ball with the other Yes parties has made this rod for their own backs.
Suck it up.
BTW here in the Ferry ward of Dundee council we had an actual Green standing so I gave them my number 1. SNP came 2 and 3. As was my democratic right. I’m not a member of any party so am a free agent to give my vote to whomever I please.
I suggest you have a talk to yourself about democracy and over entitlement and think about which sides of those lines you want people to see you and the SNP on.
@Robert Graham
Trouble is Robert those folk down there are being told garbage about everybody else anywhere else
It’s the old Brittania divide and rule tactic and still there will be folk who fall for it
If you’re not prepared to be ruled by us in perpetuity and do as you’re told you’re an enemy of the people
Trouble with that tactic is they’re running out of people to rule and creating more enemies of their state by their own sillyness
But you can’t tell them or they get angrier than they already are
There’s one sure thing Scots can take from this council election, and the coalitions that will follow.
Labour in Scotland will HAVE to join with the Tories to beat the SNP anywhere. Neither one can do it alone now.
Like I’ve always said, the BUM/MSM are morphing into the Ministry of truth from the novel 1984 where the truth is a lie and the lie is a truth.
From the novel 1984…….”Winston reflects on the activity in the Ministry of Truth, where thousands of workers correct the flow of history to make it match party ideology, and churn out endless drivel—even pornography—to pacify the brutally destitute proletariat”.
Let’s get out of this “Utopian” Nightmare(Union).
Probably a better source for election results:-
https://www.holyrood.com/articles/inside-politics/scottish-local-government-election-2017-results
Muscle guy
Simple enough, he would be contesting another Yes candidate who is likely to win. When he contests again a Unionist who is likely to win then good.
The ongoing narrative is (IMHO) going to result in May getting a landslide in E&W and she will claim that gives her the right to deal with “seperatists” because “Britain” voted to unite behind her strong & stable leadership.
The SNP better have something in their manifesto to deal with what happens WHEN, not if, May says :
“You’re not getting another referendum in this parliament. Oh and we’re going to neuter your parliament so it can’t ever happen after that. Fuck off and eat your cereal.”
For those of you who think that’s not coming then I think you need to wake up because the EU isn’t going to ride to our rescue if the Tories/English say no, there’s enough chaos around Brexit already and they don’t want more. The CoE route takes years and decisions are routinely ignored anyway. What then?
Hell even Bateman is talking about UDI now (following a ScotGov election) and for once I agree with him – if the SNP don’t have the guts to say “all or nothing” in the face of this then what’s the point of them? Another feeble fifty who can’t change a damn thing even though they do actually try?
There better be a plan B written into the manifesto to deal with a refusal of any referendum or its just fluff and we’re fucked 🙁
muscleguy
this isnt party political,
it is what is best for the yes movement
had the greens stood aside in 2015, there would have been more willingness to vote for them on the list in 2016
the yes movement mostly supports the snp as they are seen as the best vehicule to win independence, not because most of us agree with everything they do.
after this ge, i believe we will have another holyrood election to force westminster to grant a section 30
we could propell the greens into the position of opposition by standing aside in 4-5 of the regions, ensuring 20-25 green list msps.
we could wipe out the unionists
this holyrood election could be after treeza walks out in Sept (maybe spring 2018) after which i expect support for yes to rise as the brexit fallout hits hard
we are very close now, ca’ canny
While I am on my BBC theme, this bloody big shed on the riverside, What’s it for ? Every time we have a wee shot at hosting Question Time it’s from Edinburgh, a bit of manipulation at work ? , they wouldn’t do that now would they ? And not just weeks before an election where the Tory party will have to Own all of their stinking record in government, Like the Red Cross, Oxfam , the UN all critical of their actions , Christ the Red Cross the people who go into disaster areas, sickening .
Let’s see you polish that Turd Ruthie .
The rationale behind the “notional results” is described at:
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/about-notional-results/
which claims to be the method used by the BBC and Guardian. It was designed to extrapolate trends from local wards to constituencies when UK Parliamentary boundaries were redrawn. The method does not appear to be relevant to local elections. Also the method allows for “manual adjustment” and includes many caveats, which would render the method unsuitable in the present case.
The BBC results are reported as being Scotland-wide ? the national boundaries (borders)have not changed, so the only conceivable tweaking to the change numbers would be down to the increase in number of councillors from 1,223 to 1,227.
However this represents an infinitesimal variance of 0.3%.
I have written to the BBC Radio “More Or Less” numerical investigation program, asking if they can question the person(s) responsible for the use of “notional results”.
Next time your horse comes in second go and tell Ladbrokes that it won.
Camz;”Labour in Scotland will HAVE to join with the Tories to beat the SNP anywhere. Neither one can do it alone now.”
Game changer 😀
@Robert Graham 4:34 pm :
“O/t . Watching BBC Question time from Wigan , I really hope that this audience is not a reflection of English people in general”
Its a fair reflection of many parts of England IME.
Wife comes from St Helens, her parents lived just outside Wigan for years so I have some experience of the area.
It is (in general) a massively xenophobic/racist area – not just foreigners but (in order of hate) non-white, Irish, Scots, Welsh, Yorkshire people, Londoners are the ones they despise. Obviously Muslims are their #1 hate figure despite there not actually being that many in Lancs.
Its been like that for at least 40 years and has got much worse in the last 10 years – hell they would have voted UKIP ten years before it existed. There isn’t that much immigration either, they’re just pretty right-wing normally. Not a place to live IMHO, lovely countryside, horrible people.
I read elsewhere that stv is planning to give the three Scottish unionist parties a pre-election boost later this month by featuring them in a “three against one” leaders’ debate.
Considering these parties currently have just three MP’s between them, this reeks of pro-union bias. Anyone else think the SNP would be best advised to boycott this farce?
Here is the rogues gallery in North Ayrshire..
*Sorry I have tried to archive this twice but cant get it to work
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/local-news/north-ayrshire-conservatives-snub-snp-10363424
Wasn’t Angela Stephen some sort of ‘ordinary mother’ or something on an election leaflet from 2015??
The good news is that wee nyaff David O’Neill has been booted oot oan his erchie I wonder if this means he will no longer be in COsLA??
They will make great play that birdfish didn’t get elected although he did poll more votes than the Slab guy..
https://tinyurl.com/l9h6axx
Robert Graham says:
6 May, 2017 at 5:08 pm
While I am on my BBC theme, this bloody big shed on the riverside, What’s it for ?
Pacific Quay is a seat of power, a giant architectural visual political UKOK statement of BBC power, tory, UK, BBC power, not just in Glasgow but across the west of Scotland, much same mentality as Norman medieval castles of old were visual statement about their owner. Permanence, strength, power and glory. Step out of line, dare to question and change anything, they will annihilate you. (Viewers in England have their own examples, just ask poor old Jezza.)
Watch out for jousting tournaments outside Pacific Quay, feasting, the heads of their enemies on spikes at gates of PQ, and ofcourse much more BBC Scotland fraud on our fledgling democracy like,
“Amazingly, the BBC is still sticking to its line that the SNP actually lost seven seats when it increased its number of councillors from 425 to 431, a figure based on an unpublished, “estimated” version of the 2012 result supposedly created by the BBC itself which even their Scottish political reporters know nothing about.”
If BBC Scotland yoon monstering of our democracy does manage to get FM Ruth Davidson, we’re all fucked.
“Considering these parties currently have just three MP’s between them, this reeks of pro-union bias. Anyone else think the SNP would be best advised to boycott this farce?”
No. Never back down from tory shysters and bullies.
Its just not Scottish:D
They’re only twerpy tories for gawds sake. People know what’s what. Just ask ex Aberdeen City Council Finance Convener, not so future Sir Wullie Young.
Oh and of course the Labour MP prosecuted for assault during indyref1 was a certain Marie Rimmer who was/is Labour MP for Wigan. IIRC after multiple “delays” over 2 years the case was quietly dropped by the Crown Office…..
So yeah they are as bad as you imagine in Wigan/St Helens/Preston. Just like they are in Peterborough or lots of other places I could mention that I’ve had experience of over the last 30 years 🙂
About the only place you won’t have this “in your face” is major cities like London/Brum/Manchester/Leeds. 20 years ago not so much of an issue but since 2005 or so its been bad.
The only encouraging thing I see in England is that the majority of reasonably educated 20-somethings are bucking the trend – most don’t vote which doesn’t help but they’re not inherently racist whereas their predecessors in the 90s/early 00s generally were due to parents/upbringing.
hamish says:
6 May, 2017 at 5:10 pm
Next time your horse comes in second go and tell Ladbrokes that it won.
That reminds me when I used to bet. I guy i kent used to put FTP on all his betting slips ie (FIRST PAST POST).
This day his horse came second but there was a stewards enquiry. His horse was 2nd
After the stewards overturned the result his horse was placed first.He rumaged aboot the bin in front of us and he gleefully went up to the counter with his now winning slip(he thought) and said “pay me I won”. The assistant behind the counter said,”no I’m afraid you stated FTP on your slip”. He said “wit the feck do you mean wumen”? She said, “you put FTP,(first past the post) on your slip,you lose”.
Aw ffs he said “I wiz jist meant (fuck the pope), I dae that aw the time when i right on something”.
Therefore you can come second and think you’ve won, is that a notional theory?
What he was meaning btw wae was FIRST TO POST OR FIRST PAST THE POST -what he said
@Muscleguy says: 6 May, 2017 at 4:48 pm:
“It may have passed you by but a Green TOPPED THE POLL in a Glasgow ward, I suspect contained in the constituency in question.
Why should not a second Yes party contest a seat? “
No one is stopping them but anyone with two brain cells to rub together knows the score but it is quite obvious you do not.
“I take it you SNP fan Bhoys, (and we can do without your sectarianism too), are anti democrats and worse than that one the SNP to be untrammeled tyrants of Scotland able to determine who is allowed to stand and who isn’t.”
Absolute pish! If you cannot work out what would be the obvious result you should shut your insulting mouth.
“Note last GE it wasn’t the Greens who scuppered the progressive alliance idea, it was the SNP themselves. So the SNP in not being willing to play ball with the other Yes parties has made this rod for their own backs.
Suck it up.”
Claptrap! For the good of Scotland why don’t you think before opening your gub?
“BTW here in the Ferry ward of Dundee council we had an actual Green standing so I gave them my number 1. SNP came 2 and 3. As was my democratic right. I’m not a member of any party so am a free agent to give my vote to whomever I please.”
No one is stopping you but if you cannot work out what the result of such actions are you should refrain from spouting venom at people who can think how things will work out.
“I suggest you have a talk to yourself about democracy and over entitlement and think about which sides of those lines you want people to see you and the SNP on.”
Now I’ll explain to you exactly what will happen when/if Patrick stands as an MP in that Glasgow constituency as a candidate for Westminster.
At the beginning of your stupid rant against the SNP you said something that indicates you don’t know what you are talking about. You said this – “It may have passed you by but a Green TOPPED THE POLL in a Glasgow ward”
Thing is that it passed no one by but it seems the implications did indeed pass you by. The Green you speak about topped the poll in a ward, but a ward in a constituency that is in a Labour Party heartland is a very different matter than topping the poll in the entire constituency.
So here’s the likely result of Patrick Harvey standing as candidate in the constituency for Westminster. The Labour voters would probably outvote the Greens by a very big margin but the SNP candidate hoping to defeat the Labour guy might be pipped at the post by the number of votes taken by the Green candidate.
What the commenters on Wings are saying is that it is madness for two indy supporting parties to stand against each other and that in this particular constituency in a first past the post vote it could end up as a total loss to both the Greens and the SNP.
The point being that you are attempting to use the Green vote in a single ward and in a multi-member election by STV to imagine that one ward’s votes would stand a chance of winning – it most probably would not and besides wasting the Greens votes could cost the SNP vote and thus the entire YES movement’s vote.
Is it not plain to you that this is exactly what has just cost the Labour Party so dear in the election just ended?
Labour opposing Tory in wards saw voters turn from Labour to Tory to keep the SNP out and the result was that Labour are almost wiped out and the Tories did not gain enough voters from Labour to nake a real impact.
We can do without your attempts to factionalise the Indy vote, Muscleguy. We need to all pull together not fight among ourselves.
@RP
if the greens feel they must stand candidates in some wards, even as a token appearance, (you are quite right, the greens have no chance of winning any seat) then they must not stand in marginals, eg mundells seat, or NEF or John nicolsons seat (and a few others)
to be fair to harvey,he is standing in Glasgow North, the SNP won 53% and have a 9000 majority, it is very safe snp seat
Telegraph actually showed one thing, but described the opposite. Text above the graph claimed “The SNP remain the largest party with 431 seats – marginally fewer than in 2012”. Predictably, the Telegraph also ignores that Scottish Council elections are run under STV not FPTP, observing “This re-alignment has created a bizarre situation in which no Scottish council is controlled outright by any major party”.
Robert Peffers @ 17:45,
The worry is that in a Labour-SNP standoff like North Glasgow, a high-profile Green like Patrick Harvie standing as well might tip the balance away from the SNP and let Labour win. Since both the SNP and the Greens are anti-indy, that doesn’t seem too fanciful a notion.
But as I mentioned upthread, the obvious isn’t necessarily the correct analysis. The Labour vote is clearly crumbling, and a Green candidate may be able to differentially capture Labour votes, since anti-SNP tribalists may be prepared to vote Green instead.
(Labour might also bleed votes to the Tory Unionists as well, so it’s not a happy situation for them anyway.)
Ach, it’s a bit of grandstanding by Patrick Harvie, who certainly seems to have a high opinion of himself, but that’s political life for you. We need to keep a cool head over this, though. It may actually increase the pro-indy vote while actually helping retain an SNP MP in a FPTP election.
Just noticed this a couple of threads back
“There is no room for complacency, we’re on track and focused.
Roll on GE 17 and Indyref2
(although maybe gloves should come off and start telling truth that unionists are pooling their votes by voting tory, maybe a big ad with their nazi salutes, orange order parades and some of their rangers fans – just to wake people up so to speak!)”
What an excellent idea, when does the crowdfund start?
Very disappointed at Patrick Harvie standing as he should realise most of the SNP supporters put greens 3/4th and will not be voting for them in the GE- poor understanding of the situation.
Was at the count yesterday and it was heartbreaking 100’s of voters putting 1,1,1, next to 3 x SNP candidates – none accepted.
Also lots of crosses and ticks.
The good thing about that is, it wont matter in GE
I thought we were done playing unionist games. The mandate for a second referendum is already won. The GE should have nothing to do with that. The Greens are being excluded from televised debate on the pretext that they aren’t standing in enough seats. They need to be on there to provide at least a semblance of balance.
There’s no certainty that everyone who voted Green in the last GE would have voted SNP in the last GE. Nor do I agree that the SNP have to win more seats, a majority of them or even more than 50% of the vote. That last being made all the more unobtainable if voters in strong constituencies slack off.
The Conservatives are painting a scenario where being inevitably trounced at the ballot allows them to claim some kind of victory. Why play their stupid fucking games. They want to justify denying and delaying the referendum already voted for by the Scots electorate by continually moving the goalposts.
I’m voting SNP and voted SNP/SNP BTW. I’ve no hidden Green agenda. But even if the SNP were to lose every single MP it wouldn’t make a single bit of difference to the mandate they already have for a second referendum. So a little less desperation to win a battle that needn’t be fought might be in order.
liz
the thing about the tactic of the greens not standing at all is that it could backfire on us if the unionists do the same
if this campaign continues on for a longer time, eventually a strong unionist party will emerge. I wouldnt want to pre empt that. what if the unionist use the same strategy? have the tories announced who is standing in NEF or East Dunbartonshire yet? thought not.
@Muscleguy
Not all of us are like that, as far as I’m concerned, good luck Patrick even though I am an SNP member. Whatever the results it’s good practice for him, and he has tough opposition from Grady who was SNP secretary or something like that.
And we’re all on the same side – Independence.
It also gives the Greens the right to be in the leaders debates, with the Scottish leaders, though whether BBC or STV will agree who knows. And that makes it 2 pro-indy leaders against 3 unionists, rather than 1 against 3.
2015 GE result though for Glasgow North shows he’ll have a struggle:
SNP Patrick Grady 19,610 total votes taken.
53.1% share of the total vote
+41.2% change in share of the votes
(LAB) Ann McKechin 10,315 total votes taken.
27.9% share of the total vote
-16.6% change in share of the votes
(CON) Lauren Hankinson 2,901 total votes taken.
7.9% share of the total vote
+0.8% change in share of the votes
(GRN) Martin Bartos 2,284 total votes taken.
6.2% share of the total vote
+3.0% change in share of the votes
(LD) Jade O’Neil 1,012 total votes taken.
2.7% share of the total vote
-28.6 change in share of the votes
“Ms Hamilton will contest a Holyrood by-election not a Westminster seat.”
Doh! It’s been a busy weekend.
The results are excellent for the SNP whatever way the media try to spin it. The next phase is the GE where the electorate can ask really searching questions of their political reps – we are all really eager to find out how the Conservatives in Scotland are going to hold their own party to account. For example how much of the enormous welfare losses is WM trying to hide by employing financial wizards who are making the cuts for the benefit of capital owners and bonus-collecting money managers whilst fronted by a compliant media telling us all that the poor and those incapable of accumulating any personal wealth are sinners against economic reason and prudence. Without that platform for their toxic policies how electable would the Conservatives be?
Is that why they have campaigned in local elections on a ‘no-referendum’ basis because the electorate in Scotland are looking elsewhere for their information and the Indy movement is in robust health? The Conservatives in Scotland need not expend any energy worrying about an Indy Scotland-Scotland which will thrive and prosper.
Even the Guardian suggested that in a piece 40 years ago;
‘Large groups of voters are in a highly emotional mood, which has been caused by the shock of discovering Britain’s reduced status in the world, and the pain of economic adjustments. Could not the Welsh or the Scots manage their own affairs better?’
from ‘Scotland, empire and decolonisation in the twentieth century’ (Glass & MacKenzie)
Don’t know if you’re likely to read this, maureen, but if you took my advice re voting in your ward (my dad’s youthful home turf of Old Aberdeen):
https://wingsoverscotland.com/blue-is-the-new-orange/#comment-2253913
you would have been just fine.
The detailed transfers are not available yet, but the two no-hopers I mentioned (fascist and quasi-fascist) would have been the first two out the door, judging by first prefs, and the Tory for whom you didn’t vote either was surely not far behind them.
Some things do work out unambigously well. Hope you enjoyed your boke-free sweeties!
BBC2 England 2 episodes of Grand Tours of Scotland 8.00 to 8.30 & 8.30 to 9.00
BBC 2 Scotland Japan’s Northern Wilderness to 8.20
…………………. Trump on Culture. …….. 8.20 to 9.00
Grand Tours of Scotland is not being broadcast on BBC Scotland tonight.
Often BBC Scotland broadcasts different programmes from the rest of the Network.
What he says…
Vestas says:
There better be a plan B written into the manifesto to deal with a refusal of any referendum or its just fluff and we’re fucked ?
6 May, 2017 at 5:02pm
It will be interesting to see how the media will spin the GE as a win for the Tories who have the potential to double their representatives (putting them up 100%)
Orri,
“Patrick Harvey and the Scottish Green party as a whole have no choice but to stand in at least the majority of seats in Scotland in order to secure a place in any televised leaders debate.”
The Greens have no chance of winning a first past the post Westminster seat.
What does Patrick Harvey prefer:
Splitting the vote to risk SNP candidates losing (as they did last time to get Mundell re-elected) or,
Swallowing his ego and missing the televised leaders debate?
So some people really want a scenario where you have a farcical 3:1 debate where despite being the largest party by a country mile in terms of support and seats Sturgeon is easily shouted down.
Regardless of whether you rate Harvey or the Greens chances of not at least having another pro-independence voice gives a lie to claims an independent Scotland will be a one party state.
Which might be an opening for re-examining the deliberate undermining of moves towards more renewable energy in Scotland by unelected Lords.
It’d also provide an opportunity to point out the hypocrisy of attempts at treating an FTP election as a referendum. Besides which last time the SNP + Green vote was over 50% . Not forgetting that rejection of straight AV, not even AV+ mind you, was taken as outright rejection of PR by the UK so scottish unionists should be countered by questions as to whether they wouldn’t rather get back in their box.
SNP increased their number of seats and increased their majority but the media still twist it, only one way to shut them up is in the GE and take 59 from 59
only one way to shut them up is in the GE and take 59 from 59
That would be explained away as a result of the deeply flawed scottish fptp system.
So it is technically correct hat based on notional results a party could ‘lose’ seats whilst ending up with more in absolute terms.
However what seems impossible is the SNP ending up with a higher percentage of councillors in 2017 than in 2012 while still having ‘notional’ losses. Which they have.
I hope the SNP really turn the screws this election. Give themselves a mandate to demand broadcasting is devolved, at least partially to get at least a Scottish news station and hopefully have it up and running for ScotRef.
More controversially, I hope they begin to spell out their options with regard to Sovereignty, the Court of Session, and the possibility, I stress possibility, let me stress that one more time, the possibility of a UDI.
Throw Theresa’s rhetoric right back at her; you can have a soft Indy with a Scottish Trade Deal, amicable divorce, and Scotland onside as a middleman to facilitate some kind of buffer zone for English / EU Trade, or a Hard Indy, where Scotland goes Indy, joins Europe, then vetos any Trade Deal with the UK as a privilege of our full EU membership.
Maybe Scotland should take a leaf out the Trump book Art of the Deal. Slam the “nuclear” options for Indy on Theresa’s dispatch box, rattle their preconceptions to the core, then soften our stance to get the sweet deal we really want.
Truthfully, I don’t think that will be necessary. All I can foresee realistically is a collapse of Brexit negotiations, and whatever Nicola has up her sleeve to save Scotland from the commercial apocalypse of Brexit.
You may not like it folks, but perhaps we need to think in similar terms to Theresa; a UDI is the “hard” Indy option nobody wants but might have to accept, or, we have a cosy, comfortable negotiated Indy as the “soft” Indy option.
Shadowing both hard and soft Indy options, I would also get a quiet, confidential brief from the Court of Session to contest the legal competence of the Act of Union and the unlawful subjugation of Scottish sovereignty. Just to get an important piece of paper to tuck inside our pocket.
None of this has to be on the mainstream public agenda. But I think Theresa May being fully and formally clued up on Scotland’s constitutional options will have a profound effect on the tone of ScotRef negotiations.
If Theresa May knows one way or the other, Scotland wins, then that option I just mentioned which sees an Independent Scotland becoming a full EU member state but with its own bespoke intermediary buffer status between the rUK and Europe could actually give everybody what they actually want and escape a great deal of avoidable unpleasantness.
If Theresa was a smart Cookie, (sadly I fear she is not), she has the option to embrace Scotland’s democratic will to stay in the EU, concede the Act of Union needs root and branch “modernisation” to facilitate a Confederal United KingdomS, which allows the UK to still technically exist on paper, but also allows a sovereign Scotland to remain in Europe.
Since Scotland is already in Europe, and already in the U.K., I feel quite sure a deal could be worked out to funnel trade and free movement through Scotland, but simultaneously accommodate some face saving compromise for Westminster and provide them with a lifeline back from the brink. Europe keeps Trade with England but doesn’t have to put up with Westminster shenanigans and can trade on or off like a tap – via Scotland’s transitional status. England gets the face saving bilateral concessions it wants and a European Trade Deal, but not with the whole of Europe, just Scotland.
Westminster would not have to choose between a hard or soft Brexit, because Scotland, for the price of its (technically necessary) sovereign Independence, could provide a practical and practicable middle way.
If I was a smart SNP Cookie, I would jockeying for a behind closed doors eyeball to eyeball discussion with Theresa May. No shite, cut to the chase. I would also do it very soon, before the acrimonious rhetoric begins, because attitudes are going to harden fast and opinions polarise. Hard talking now, before it kicks off is the UK’s Last Chance Saloon.
At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter how the local election or indeed the general election turn out for the SNP. There is a nationalist majority in the Scottish parliament and when the time is right they will organize another Indy ref. The right time will be when people start to lose their money and jobs because of Brexit. The UK government have created so many enemies around the world recently (esp on the continent) that even the result of an ‘illegal’ Indy ref will be recognized. It is becoming clearer by the day that the EU will not back down. Either:
1. They will force May into a humiliating climbdown over Brexit for which she will be crucified by the media and the general public. She’s pumped them up with her anti-EU talk to such an extent she’ll be lynched if she has to concede to all the demands of Brussels and that is what the EU will force her to do. Nothing less.
Or, and this is more likely because Theresa May is clearly insane,
2. She will commit suicide on behalf of the UK and crash out of the EU with no deal.
If it’s option 1, then England and Wales are no further forward and the Brexiteers will make their dissatisfaction known in a less than pleasant way. Ripe conditions for a second indyref.
If it’s option 2, the economy will crash (short term at least) and there will be ripe conditions for…another referendum.
The UK government have boxed themselves into a corner and have no way out without extremely damaging consequences. They have fallen into every trap that has been set for them. May’s lurch towards British Nationalism is a red flag to the EU bull (and indeed to many other countries around the world) who will now be looking forward to teaching the UK a hard lesson. Davidson and May’s decision to make every Scottish election another referendum is a major blunder. The more they talk about the constitution the more it will be seen as a solution to the problems of Brexit when they become manifest in the future.
Of course, having said all that, it is still very important that the SNP do as well as possible in the election next month to ‘send a message to the unionists’! 🙂
Buckle up. Post 8 th June, things are going to get interesting!
More UDI talk, I can understand the frustration that brings this subject to the fore but there is no logic to such a call without a majority vote.
A different argument than I’ve used before, the Troubles in N. Ireland lasted around 30 years and only more or less ended with the Good Friday Agreement in 1998.
Now almost 20 years on from that what is being talked about? A Referendum on a United Ireland. So what a waste of human life for naught, thousands dead but only now talk of a referendum to finally settle the issue.
Independence supporters will not rule Scotland by force FFS against any kind of majority who are opposed. Neither will the “government” be recognised by anyone that matters. So forget your membership of the EU or EEA or anything else for that matter.
Get a majority of the vote in Scotland in a referendum or an election where Independence is stated in the manifestos of those parties that support Independence. Let Westminster try and refuse to recognise that result and if they do they we can talk of UDI and to do so before that is simply pointless. You would be backing a guaranteed loser that is not worth the likes of what N. Ireland went through for 30 years.
Breeks @ 1037 pm , another fine post , however probably too politically sophisticated for
the ruling junta. My thoughts are along the lines of TM hard Brexit position initially
then ramp up the anti SNP propaganda via the usual suspects to pre referendum 14 ” war footing”
to counter any movement in the polls towards independence as the EU plays hardball and the ” cliff edge ” beckons. If this looks like failing and Independence looks a distinct possibility then “Junta plan B” : TM stands down ( health/ family reasons ) new interim leader appointed ( union to be saved at any cost). ” soft Brexit ” single market access to be negotiated . No need for 2nd referendum now Nicola.?
i.e. Hard Brexit as long as Independence is thwarted.Curiously the ” Junta” have never specified / defined Brexit as either hard or soft?
Thanks LA 🙂
Yeah, UDI – Undemocratic Dumb and Insane in this day and age.
So if you rule out a UDI, then what do you do to keep Scotland in Europe when Brexit negotiations collapse and the UK is formally dumped outside the EU while the SNP in Holyrood is still twiddling its thumbs making sure everything is perfect on the ScotRef referendum that comes too late to save Scotland from catastrophe?
I do not advocate UDI, my preferred “Nuclear” option if you pardon the expression is the Sovereign legitimacy issue which reasserts, clarifies, and ratifies an existing Independence of sovereignty, rather than contriving a new one and expecting the UN to ratify it.
I also restate the further interim option of using our sovereignty issue, or even a virtual but incomplete UDI, to put Scotland into a state of constitutional stasis which awaits the results of a Scottish Plebiscite which decides where our transitional stasis actually transits too. In essence, a constitutional state of emergency we enter arbitrarily and exit democratically after a plebiscite.
This isn’t a UDI, but it amounts to the same thing because you cannot properly have a plebiscite option which is unlawful and incompatible with Scottish sovereignty being purloined by Westminster.
My repeated references to UDI is not because it is a practical solution, but Scotland must make Westminster aware that Scotland has the option of a “Hard” Independence. If the UK is desperate enough to opt for the catastrophe of a hard and dirty Brexit, then I fail to see why Scotland should simply lie down and accept it.
Scotland needs the often maligned line in the sand.
Is just me or is it only the number of SNP seats that seem to be affected by the BBC’s ‘notional’ calculations for 2012?
@Breeks “while the SNP in Holyrood is still twiddling its thumbs making sure everything is perfect on the ScotRef referendum that comes too late to save Scotland from catastrophe?”
I have confidence that Sturgeon knows what she is doing.
It doesn’t mean I don’t keep a close beady eye on the SNP in case of backsliding.
@Breeks
I should add however that ultimately an action like the Miller one is an idea to hold in reserve.
Sunday politics bar graph showing SNP -7 councillors.