Reforming your principles
The meaning of the word “reform” has taken something of a battering in Scotland this year. First the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust decided that it meant “bailing out a known liar in direct contravention of our own stated rules”. And today we have the strange case of the Electoral Reform Society.
“Make seats match votes”. Nobody could disagree with that, right?
Except that the ERS itself seems to.
Until late last year Juliet Swann was the ERS’s Campaigns and Research Officer, and her blog can still be read on its website. Her tweet above doesn’t specify how many months exactly she’s been telling people not to vote SNP for, but we can’t be alone in wondering whether she was doing it in an official capacity.
And that question became distinctly more pertinent today, when the Sunday Herald published a series of misleading articles giving independence supporters the same instruction, based on an ERS study and backed by a quote from the organisation’s current director in Scotland, former Labour councillor Willie Sullivan.
According to the Sunday Herald’s editor Neil Mackay, the ERS were “totally fine with” the paper’s presentation of the report, which went out under the blunt headline “Study claims independence supporters should not cast second vote for the SNP”.
Willie Sullivan and the ERS are of course perfectly entitled to want a diverse politics. But when that desire crosses the line into telling people which parties they should and shouldn’t vote for, something very different is happening.
If a party gets a parliamentary majority on 36.8% of the vote, as the Tories did at Westminster last year, that’s clearly a failure of representation. Almost two thirds of the electorate has voted against them, yet they have absolute power.
The same is true of the SNP having 95% of Scottish seats in the Commons on 50% of the vote. Seats are quite clearly not matching votes in either of those cases, and therefore the democratic will of the people is not being enacted. We fully support the ERS in its campaign to replace the UK’s First Past The Post voting system with some sort of proportional representation.
However, if a party gets a majority on a majority of votes, you’re no longer objecting to an unfair electoral system, because it ISN’T unfair. What you’re objecting to – and indeed directly attempting to subvert – in that instance is democracy itself.
The SNP are currently on schedule to get over 50% of the vote next month, and in those circumstances the democratic outcome is that they SHOULD have an absolute majority. Seats WILL have matched votes (perhaps not precisely, but in the crucial sense of more people voting for them than against).
The electorate in Scotland has the ability to choose minority or coalition governments – indeed it’s difficult NOT to, the system having been specifically designed to encourage it – but if it chooses not to exercise that right and instead decides that it would rather have one party in sole charge, that’s none of the ERS’s business.
If the ERS thinks the Holyrood system still needs tweaking to be more perfectly proportional, it’s perfectly entitled to argue for that. But it’s a massive perversion of what the organisation stands for to instead be campaigning explicitly against one party WITHIN the current system.
Indeed, in doing so, the ERS appears to be unarguably positioning itself as an entity which under Electoral Commission rules is called a “non-party campaigner”:
Willie Sullivan’s comments, made in an official capacity as a representative of the ERS, seem plainly to us to be “intended to influence voters to vote against political parties or categories of candidates” – specifically the SNP in this case – and are certainly “aimed at the public”.
But the ERS is NOT registered on the Electoral Commission’s current list.
We’ll be seeking clarification from both the ERS and the EC on Monday. We’ll keep you informed of any responses. In the meantime, we might check our dictionary to see if we can find out exactly when “reform” was redefined to mean “SNP BAD”.
I thought you’d know by now, Stu – rules don’t apply when the territorial integrity of the UK is at stake.
So much bleating about the dangers of a ‘one party state’ and encouraging us to vote Green or RISE so that the SNP can be ‘held to account’. Therefore, it is excellent that those that abuse their position in trying to influence the election will also be held to account.
Well one consequence of that report, from what I see on social media, is that Sunday Herald is going to take a big hit on readership.
Stopped buying it couple of months ago when I counted 4 ANTI-SNP articles in same issue.
Excellent work.
I’ve been suspicious of the ERS for a long time. Just another organisation for the corrupt UK state to hide its activities behind.
The SH has just lost our loyal custom. Cancelling the delivery order tomorrow.
Since Richard Walker was replaced, there has been a gradual, but perceptible, drift away from a solid pro-Indy line.
Sad to be losing the title in our house. Gone same way as Herald. Just hoping the change from him as editor at the National does
n’t also signify a slide.
MajorBloodnok
encouraging us to vote Green or RISE so that the SNP can be ‘held to account’.
except Green, solidarity and RISE are all encouraging their supporters to vote SNP in the constituencies?
Well done!
Keep up the good work. We must keep the media under constant scrutiny
Looking at the people involved in that article points to a Labour party connection.
The SNP are held to account everyday – in hostile newspapers articles and slanted broadcast media news reports.
If the Greens, Rise, Labour or Tories want votes then they should campaign for them and not expect cast offs.
if prof curtice cant be held responsable for how the SH misreports his comments and position
why are rise, greens and solidarity(not known for herald support)?
Think it’s fair to say that the ERS is now far from being neutral given their line-up. They should be sticking to Electoral Reform, NOT engaging in political opinionising.
Whilst its office bearers are perfectly entitled to hold whatever political veiw they like, tagging your Twitter/FB biog with “all veiws my own” simply does not cut it.
ERS is headquartered in London with a Scottish branch, it is headed by Katie Ghose who is a Labour Party member and has tried on four attampts to be selected as a Parliamentary candidate. Her partner is Andrew Harrop, general secretary of the Fabian Society. Celebrity ambassador for the ERS is Dan Snow.
If the Greens, Rise, Labour or Tories want votes then they should campaign for them and not expect cast offs.
but you happy the greens, rise and solidarity are campaigning for their supporters to vote snp on the constituency paper?
Oh dear, I think you’ve just wiped a smug smile of more than one face Rev = )
@schrodingers cat
I do not think that RISE or Solidarity are standing in the constituencies so there is no option but to recommend that they vote for someone else. On the regional vote, though, they should be targeting soft No voters and swithering LDs of Lab supporters, should they not? Why are they suggesting SNP voters vote for a second best choice?
If I remember correctly when Sunday Herald decided to support independence they said they were not pro SNP so not surprised at their attitude to them, indeed it would be difficult for them considering 99.9% of their journalists appear to hate SNP with a vengeance. An example of their contempt is the fact that they charge £2.99 monthly subscription for the Herald and £3.99 for subscription to The National. We are being taken for mugs.
Jim Thomson wrote:
“The SH has just lost our loyal custom. Cancelling the delivery order tomorrow.”
You’ve no idea how pleasing it is to read that.
Well done Jim & Betty, leading by example!
Jim, i need your help again over on OT.
So now we know what neutral really means to some!
The fundamental issue – as you point out Stu – is that anyone who opposes the idea that a party with more than 50% of the vote should have more than 50% of the seats is opposing the whole idea of democracy and should be called out for the anti-democrats that they are.
The people should get what they vote for and if the people decide one party should get more than 50% of the vote that is their choice.
Why don’t the other parties expend more energy on putting together policies people want to vote for rather than trying to denigrate and undermine a democratic process?
schrodingers cat says @2.35pm “but you happy the greens, rise and solidarity are campaigning for their supporters to vote snp on the constituency paper?”.
What a Party tells it’s own supporters to do is surely nothing to do with anyone else?
Are you suggesting the SNP should be asking all their supporters to give their second votes away to these other parties? Ridiculous.
Well done again, Rev. The Sunday Herald has been found out [as just another britnat organ] and it doesn’t like it one bit. I won’t be buying the SH again.
SNP x 2
schrodingers cat
The SNP are campaigning for SNP candidates on both the constituency and list. That is how we campaigned in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011.
Now the option of finding a home in the well greased Labour career paths that were once on offer to these “heroes of the revolution’ all they can do is snipe from the sidelines and attempt to ‘out purify’ each other. Exactly the sort of folks who make politics a turn off for most people outside the Glasgow metropoliticalchattering classes in the first case.
This might set the cat amongst the pigeons over at bella.
or not, depending on what is actually going on.
guess we’ll see.
Neat bit of work there Rev.
Basically what steveasaneilan said.
ERS seems an appropriate name for these agents of the Britlab Establishment.
Another one bites the dust. NEXT!
“I do not think that RISE or Solidarity are standing in the constituencies so there is no option but to recommend that they vote for someone else”
yes but they are both recommending their supporters to vote snp
Topher Dawson says:
I’m a Green, I’ll be voting SNP in the first vote
topher is a green msp list candidate
“They should be targeting soft No voters and swithering LDs of Lab supporters, should they not? ”
they are, #rise2ndvote and the like is targeted at all of the electorate, not just the snp.
“Why are they suggesting SNP voters vote for a second best choice?”
because in some regions, eg fife&mid where the snp is expected to win all 9 constituencies, when this happens the snp list vote will be divided by 10 and it is very unlikely to win and list msps in this region. this will mean that the unionists partys could take all 7 list msps from this region (they took 6 in 2011) snp supporters voting green/rise or solidarity on the list in this region could replace some of these unionist msps with msps who support independence and could very likely remove wullie rennie, leader of the libdems from holyrood.
i beleive it is worth doing
You are right Schrodiner’s Cat,
I can’t imagine the Greens, Rise or Solidarity will happy that anyone has taken it upon themselves to do something dodgy on their behalf.
Especially when it could come back to bite them on the bum.
It would be a win win for the Herald group though if they manage to hit four birds with one stone. Grrr.
Schrodingers Cat, firstly, none of my Green friends are suggesting that they will vote for the SNP on the Constituency ballot. They are campaigning, quite rightly, for a vote for the Green candidate as many are standing.
Secondly, your user name is quite apt given the topic. We will not know the result of the Constituency elections until after we cast our Regional votes. Until the entire result is declared, we will indeed not know if the cat is alive or dead.
Marcia says:
The SNP are campaigning for SNP candidates on both the constituency and list. That is how we campaigned in 1999, 2003, 2007 and 2011.
true, i also think it is unwise for the snp to do otherwise, certainly if any of their mps or msps were to do so the unionist media would slaughter them for trying to game the system. they dont need an excuse to put the snpbad boot in.
however, i am not an snp mp or msp and i am posting under a sudonym, trying to encourage other snp voters to vote tactically in some regions for other indy supporting parties
i am also trying to encourage all yes supporters to vote
snp1&2 in the south and highland regions. these are regions where the snp are least likely to win all constituencies and can win and may need snp list msps.
The lady in person.
http://livestream.com/accounts/6163639/events/4448331
Suzanne K
the greens i know are, indeed one of the green list CANDIDATES on the last thread also is ?
probability isnt a 50/50 chance
eg we can never know exactly what the future will bring,the sun will almost certainly rise tomorrow morning but it isnt a given, just very very probable.
the snp won every constituency seat in fife&mid in the 2015 general election.since there has been no dramatic swing in the polls to indicate they are about to fall of a cliff any time soon
so while we can never know exactly what the future will bring,the snp will almost certainly win rise tomorrow morning but it isnt a given, just very very probable.
As usual in this dysfunctional union, agendas are twisted into whatever shape suits the London establishment.
We are told Westminster’s voting system gives us ‘strong government’ which excuses the unfairness of the first past the post system.
Yet when a Scottish election, under an AMS system results in a majority government we are in danger of having an FM who may be, in MacWhirter’s own words, getting too big for her boots.
UK strong goverment good.
SNP strong government bad.
The Rules will be ‘for guidance’ only. Happens with Electoral organisations.
sorry premature post
Suzanne K
the greens i know are, indeed one of the green list CANDIDATES on the last thread also is ?
probability isnt a 50/50 chance
eg we can never know exactly what the future will bring,the sun will almost certainly rise tomorrow morning but it isnt a given, just very very probable.
the snp won every constituency seat in fife&mid in the 2015 general election.since there has been no dramatic swing in the polls to indicate they are about to fall of a cliff any time soon
so while we can never know exactly what the future will bring,the snp will almost certainly win every comnstituency seat in fife&mid and UKIP/labour/tories/libdems will almost certainly win none
ergo, the best way to remove unionists list msps from the list in this region is to vote for other pro-indy parties
green/rise and solidarity
if complexity theory or the uncertainty principle didnt enabled us to make predictions it would be of no use, and we wouldnt have been able to build the semiconductor which powers your pc
Anyone advocating selective tactical voting with the list vote might consider explaining why they don’t also advocate it with the constituency vote. If the argument stands for one vote, and I don’t believe it does, then it should also stand for all votes.
Any argument for tactical voting rests on assumptions about outcomes that are far from certain. Not only is there a possibility that it will backfire, you fudge the message here, there, and everywhere;
SNP x Two
Schrodingers Cat, your hypothesis only works if the theory supports it. When we have polling that represents a simple snapshot of opinion in that minute of time. It cannot be taken as theory.
Indeed, despite polls suggesting a Tory minority or Labour win last May. We opened the box to discover the poison had indeed been dispensed.
Anyone advocating selective tactical voting with the list vote might consider explaining why they don’t also advocate it with the constituency vote.
they are
greens,rise and solidarity are advising their supporters to vote snp in the constituency vote. and they will
it will be interesting to hear what the electoral commission have to say about this.
The 2011 result was 45.4% constituency, 44.0% regional list giving 53 plus 16 seats.
A current poll of polls suggests 52.2% & 46.6%.
Of course this will vary round the country and it seems unlikely the SNP will take all constituencies, especially in Highland & Isles and South. In those regions, a gap between constituency and list votes of 6% could be a disaster allowing Unionists extra list seats.
Suppose the votes turn out to be up on 2011, more like the 2015 general election, at say 51/49%. The SNP may take all central belt constituencies and probably the odd list seat. If however it were 51/45% then that will cost list seats.
Then, consider a result closer to 2011. The excellent overall result then came about because of the relatively high list vote, compared to constituency vote.
Anyone not voting SNP+SNP, and instead SNP+another, is gambling on the SNP getting most constituencies. I will not be taking that gamble.
I accept that there are well meaning posts here who believe it is safe to take exactly that gamble.
However, I also am certain there is a plot afoot to try to reduce SNP list seats. I am especially suspicious of those advocating voting for ‘no hopers’ Rise.
This election is important for everyone. The Unionist objective is not to win, it is to deny the SNP a majority.
I think there is a definite issue with PR elections and list candidates, but it’s a tweak here and there which might be required, unlike the complete re-invention from scratch which a first past the post system requires, and the unceremonious throwing into the dustbin of history which the House of Lords requires.
I don’t seem to recall the ERS being perplexed by one party politics when Labour were dominating Scotland, and steamrolling issues like our Parliament building, and PFI projects with somewhat dubious scrutiny. Suddenly it’s an issue because the SNP is in the driving seat? Funny that.
I have a bigger concern however, and that relates to priorities. Tinkering with the PR system, comes way, way, down the agenda. Furthermore, raising its head about the issue merely weeks before the country goes to the polls is downright suspicious. Why this? Why now?
To quote the ERS: “The Electoral Reform Society operates on a simple premise – that politics can be better than it is. We campaign for a better democracy”.
That sounds great, except you would imagine an agency who’s whole raisin d’etre was to campaign for better democracy would be more than a little concerned about the impact of Unionist propaganda and scaremongering is having in Scotland’s democratic process. Not a word spoken so far as I can see. Seems the ERS is blind to the elephant in the room too, and their “simple premise” perhaps isn’t really as simple as they would have you believe.
I stopped getting the SH a few weeks ago; they’re firmly on the fence. If the SNP ever take a slump in the polls, we’ll see their true colours soon enough. I still get the National, though apart from politics it’s not much of a daily.
On first past the post voting, it’s always been that way. After every GE the defeated parties moan about the system, but it’s never changed, as it suits the winners, who are now in power. The only time the argument has achieved real venom is when the SNP returned 56 MPs!
Suzanne K
your hypothesis only works if the theory supports it.
Quantum Electro Dynamics is the most successful scientific theory ever. QED as it were
“When we have polling that represents a simple snapshot of opinion in that minute of time. It cannot be taken as theory.”
polls are not theories they are snap shots of opinion, as you say, but they have consistently indicated support for the snp at +50% for the constituency vote
the general election wasnt a poll, it was a result with the snp at 50%. havent seen anything from anywhere to indicate there support is falling of a cliff
“Indeed, despite polls suggesting a Tory minority or Labour win last May”
the polls in scotland accurately predicted the results in scotland
the polls in scotland for tories and labour in may….the smaller the % of the vote the larger the margin of error
“We opened the box to discover the poison had indeed been dispensed.”
who the people in england vote for is their business, nothing we can do about it. this is a scottish election and only people in scotland will be voting
This a genuine and crucial public interest story.The ERS appears to be trying to interfere , in advance, with how we choose to vote at the Holyrood Election. My gratitude to Stuart for scrutiny and exposure.
Also stopped buying the Sunday Herald a few weeks ago.It has been pointed out here before that their so called conversion to Yes was a cynical and manipulative ploy.We became a more attractive target for advertisers.Wait and see if they are still laughing all the way to the bank as their sales decline.Reaping and sowing springs to mind…
SNP X 2 PFI Edinburgh
Schrodinger, you’re being obtuse. So, I’ll rephrase it;
If you are advising SNP/Yes supporters to vote tactically with their second votes, are you also advising them to vote tactically with their first?
If not, why not? If yes, then, I think you have screwed up and your reputation on here will suffer.
It’s SNP/Yes voters we are talking about here in regards to what they will do with their second votes. The debate is about what brings the best outcome for SNP/Yes supporters. Let’s be clear about that.
Another easy to understand exposé of great British bullshit.
So much for the reformers.
Prof Poultice even points out that voters are not clear how Holyrood voting actually works and then uses voter ignorance to explain why smaller parties might not get what they expect from the polls, its our ignorance.
“Given that many voters are not familiar with the details of the Holyrood voting system, there is a risk that, when people are asked how they will vote on a second ballot, some give their second preference party when in practice they will end up voting for the same party twice. Some voters do, of course, vote differently on the two ballots…”
Could it be that ignorance might be good for yoon culture in their Scotland region?
Why don’t these great reformers get stuck in and educate us, the electorate, the EC could easily do this and its what they say they do do anyway and ofcourse they wont even bother to try.
gala
However, I also am certain there is a plot afoot to try to reduce SNP list seats. I am especially suspicious of those advocating voting for ‘no hopers’ Rise.
However, I also am certain there is a plot afoot to try to reduce indy supporting list seats.
the system is designed to that the more constituencies msps you get win the less list msp you get, and vice versa.
regardless of which party you are in
it is a risk gala, agreed. which is why many are genuinely arguing for an snp1&2. i dont doubt your or wos’s commitment to indy
but if it works we can reduce the unionist msps hugely, not something the unionists will want to happen which is why the unionist concern trolls are also arguing for an snp1&2
conspiracy theories abound, but i believe it is a calculated risk worth taking. seeing wullie rennie get his jotters will be the highlight of the night
Scotland was a one party Labour state for years and I don’t remember a time when other parties were running around so much holding them to account, and newspapers had what they wanted an ever flowing media booze up kick back regime from their buddies
What seems to be happening now is everybody jumping on the back of the SNPs success and all wanting a piece of it and the media working overtime to put their old pals back where they think they belong
Stu’s article clearly shows every move that can be made to destroy the good thing that’s been built by the SNP will be made, and the insulting thing to us voters is, they all think they can get away with it just like they have done in the past
At this moment in time we’ve got Tory MSP Murdo McLeod attempting to incite division using football as a tool for bringing up sectarianism to once again cause division, as if we don’t have enough Diddies doing that already
It’s just another attempt to split Scotland up and prevent us moving forward
We need a strong opposition in Holyrood, how many times a day do you hear that Utter Pish
Who is the opposition to the governing party, EASY it’s us, if we don’t like what they’re doing we vote them out, we did it to Labour and they still haven’t apologised, they’re just in the huff and they’re still right Feckin Arrogance
This is the shit they’ve been using on Scotland for decades divide and conquer, project fear, spread disinformation then if that doesn’t work just lie and worry about it later
We’re winning this race, don’t let the Bastirts stick their legs out to trip us up when we’re nearly over the line
I’m so sick of Scotlands history of glorious defeat just before the end of the game
SNPx2 #whitdaeyewanttaechangetheteamfur
angramainyu
Schrodinger, you’re being obtuse
as if to highlight my last post…. snigger
ive said it before and ill say it again sonny
piss off and dont come back….there’s a good chap 🙂
heed
“Given that many voters are not familiar with the details of the Holyrood voting system,
i think he means coburn ….
We’ve not had an administration either at Westminster or here at Holyrood to support self-determination for three hundred years.
300 years!
Why in hell’s name should I squander a second vote on any two-bit party that does not advocate the implementation of social democracy on Scotland’s terms, constitutionally endorsed in perpetuity?
SNPx2
Never yet had my door knocked yet by a labour/tory/libdem person.
Not for the MEP vote, the 2015 GE vote nor (thus far) this upcoming vote.
I have however told my neighbours about these tactics about saying it is illegal to use your 2nd vote on the same party nonsense.
Those neighbours are now going to tell their relatives about this stuff, and encourage them to challenge ANYONE who comes to their door stating this crap.
I WANT them at my door, so i can act a bit dim and ask if it is allowed to vote SNP x 2, for example….?
Badger baiting may be banned, but nobody mentioned political activist baiting…??
schrodingers cat says:
17 April, 2016 at 4:25 pm
heed
He’s right but its a truly awful statement to make in any modern democracy, they don’t know how it the election works, so watch out and don’t get your hopes up.
And they cant say its not up to them either, not the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust con artists, nor the ERS who’ve just had their mask pulled off and especially not the Electoral Commission comedy show.
Although that crew do tell you how to vote, well they tell you about everything vote wise
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/i-am-a/voter/how-to-vote
Maybe they paid Prof Poultice mega bucks just to be told what they already know but wont do anything about.
Ignorance is bliss. How frightfully British.
Maybe we’ve all got this the wrong way round. Greens SSP et al should advise their supporters to vote Green/SSP in the CONSTITUENCY ballot. This will reduce the total number of votes for the SNP overall, without actually endangering any SNP constituency seats. Then ALL should vote SNP in the REGIONAL list ensuring the greatest number of seats to the SNP by dint of the reduced constituency vote?
Just kidding…SNP 1&2
Someone posted a link to the ScotsGoesPop earlier. He has now updated it to include Curtice’s actual report:
http://tinyurl.com/gnm3xbz
Dr Jim @ 16:23 said:
Too right there, mate! (Or the papers ranting on incessantly about it.)
Personally, I think people like Willie Sullivan and the ERS are basically good sorts but who are still fighting a previous war, reform of Westminster. I gave up on that as a lost cause some time ago, as I think many other Scots also did. We have that luxury thanks to the SNP, but the English+Welsh are stuck with nowhere else to go.
Whatever Curtice’s personal preferences are, I still trust his basic integrity, and don’t believe he would bend anything to suit an agenda. So don’t shoot the messanger! But what the Herald group are about I really do wonder…
Sad to report that in the light of this I will no longer buy the Sunday Herald and for a newsoaper junkie I am lost for print media on a Sunday. Used to subscribe to The Herald. Should have known though.
As Winnie Ewing used to maintain “Britannia waives the rules”
I attended a lecture last month by Ms Swann at a local common weal event. She suggested using your second vote for a party other than the SNP because “it would be a bit of fun. It is good to mix things up.”
At this point the room erupted. She got a very rough reception. Her premise was destroyed. Particularly as her slide with the votes of 2011 in mid Scotland and Fife showed a small move from SNP second votes to Green would have resulted in the loss of an SNP MSP and the gain of a Labour one.
Grouse Beater
We’ve not had an administration either at Westminster or here at Holyrood to support self-determination for three hundred years.
300 years!
Why in hell’s name should I squander a second vote on any two-bit party that does not advocate the implementation of social democracy on Scotland’s terms, constitutionally endorsed in perpetuity?
it isnt squandering your 2nd vote if the system is designed to ensure that the snp
why the hell should you endorse rise/solidarity or the greens?
because they are not slab/tories/libdems or ukip, all parties who definately do not advocate the implementation of social democracy on Scotland’s terms
For the media to becoming out with this nonsense shows that they now realise that the SNP are totally uncatchable in just about every sense. Even the 2nd vote is going to hammer the Unionist parties. The very real threat of a 2nd Referendum taking place looks like becoming a reality if the UK should pull out of the EU and then Tory-England not only loses the plot, but things begin to come off the rails financially. That is the real agenda here from the media; do anything and everything possible to stop the SNP having majority and a mandate for a 2nd Referendum.
So, what do they do?
Come out with a twisted mind-bender by saying how democratic it would be if people try to use their 2nd vote so that we can have a more balanced and democratic parliament. Yep, let’s vote for the Unionist parties so that London can have a voice in the Scottish Parliament should the SNP fail to get a majority. Yeah, because that’s what we want; London dictating through the backdoor of the Scottish Tories, Labour and Lib-Dems in our own parliament.
When we get into that final week …we just keep telling those who advocate a better Scotland by voting for the SNP twice. Keep the London influence out of Holyrood.
http://derekbateman.scot/2016/04/17/rise-with-ukip-anyone/
-labour-could-be-heading-for-its-worst-ever-result-in-scotland/
http://archive.is/VFRlt
Snp x2 for me and everyone I have spoken to
@ schodringers cat You,ve goat ah reputation my my we learn new things on Wings every day, am flubbergasted, but ah,ll bounce back lol.
Schrodinger: “because they are not slab/tories/libdems or ukip, all parties who definately do not advocate the implementation of social democracy on Scotland’s terms”
I knew it, you’re a Yoonyinist.
Only a Yoon would spell “definitely” like that. Probably happy with the football result today too, you seem chirpy.
@Nana
Two good ones there Nana. 🙂
SNP x 2
During the indyref, we observed a fair amount of reality distortion to keep we ingrates in the Union, and now the existential question appears to be the survival of Labour in Scotland. Maybe a lot of favours are being called in now in a desperate last-ditch attempt to keep the rotting hulk afloat. Any further slump now will surely spell doom for “S”Lab.
But still, but still…
SNPx2 advocates may well be right in taking the “safety first” route, but are still obliged to accept the reality that in the aftermath of the indyref, a considerable number of Yes supporters joined the Greens and not the SNP.
Just saying…
Labour Scum
Corrupt BUM
Tory Sojourn
SNP Bad their joint outcome.
ERS- Auld Scots word for Arse
now United with British Unionist Media-B.U.M.
I can see a Crack appearing.
No ring of truth here.
Hope they lose their seat.
Enough NeoNat. Enough.
NeoNat Con @ 17:11 You have proven to be a self-centred troll who is best ignored, but another attempt to rouse a one-man lynch mob is contemptible. I have held my peace in the interest of fair speech since your last attempt, but enough is enough.
GET . LOST – GO . AWAY.
I’d say a far more worrying concern for democracy in Scotland right now is the appearance that we’re not allowed to have a media in which even one paper isn’t totally and thoroughly a unionist propaganda rag. Perhaps the ERS, if it was a genuinely reforming organisation would be looking into that. I won’t hold my breath.
“SNPx2 advocates may well be right in taking the “safety first” route, but are still obliged to accept the reality that in the aftermath of the indyref, a considerable number of Yes supporters joined the Greens and not the SNP.”
Up until now I’ve been either keeping silent, or saying people should vote for the second party they want to vote for, because that’s what democracy is all about. I still hold with that. But I have to say the amount of propaganda coming from the mainstream media and unionist commentators desperate for people not to vote SNP for their second vote is making me think it’s probably a necessity if your first concern is keeping a pro-indy Scottish parliament at all.
@ Robert J. Sutherland. 5:26pm
“SNPx2 advocates may well be right in taking the “safety first” route, but are still obliged to accept the reality that in the aftermath of the indyref, a considerable number of Yes supporters joined the Greens and not the SNP.”
True. And that “considerable number” doesn’t need any help from SNP supporters. SNP x 2.
Yes, cath, I’m wondering about that too. As I said, I think it’s all about the existential threat to Labour’s branch office. Hence, just as one example, the deafening media silence and obfuscation about Labour’s complicity in PFI.
SNPX2. No debate necessary.
Good stuff from James Scott and Peter A Bell
http://indyref2.scot/proportional-representation-the-clues-in-the-name
http://indyref2.scot/respecting-democracy
Sutherland, you’re making a mistake. A few people on here are. You should read this very carefully.
Schrodinger is on Wings — that’s right, Wings — today, despite all the Loki crap and all obvious attempts to divide the vote, and he is making arguments in favour of giving second votes to RISE, the Greens, and God knows who.
I’m actually amazed that this is being tolerated. When I ask him to clarify that tactical voting strategy he tells me to piss of. Go up and read. It was at that point the discussion ended.
But that’s all trivial nonsense.
All of you who are strenuously promoting SNP x 2, as I have continually on here, are now faced with another Leftist fifth columnist shafting you and undermining your support for the SNP.
And as usual, they know better than us because we are thick and they are morally superior beings who read Das Capital. Right in your face too; so, back in the box everybody, Independence is dead, long live Loki and Cat Boyd.
ronnie anderson says:
@ schodringers cat You,ve goat ah reputation my my we learn new things on Wings every day, am flubbergasted, but ah,ll bounce back lol.
a reputation?? who’s been spreading vicious rumours?
i still think i do a better job convincing people to vote rise/solidarity/greens on the 2nd vote better than they do themselves
either that or i piss off all sides in equal amounts 🙂
angramainyu
I knew it, you’re a Yoonyinist.
Only a Yoon would spell…….
did i forget to tell you……
snigger
Didn’t we already have a referendum not too long ago about electoral reform? And didn’t those who were bothered to turn out overwhelmingly vote against it?
Democracy’s a bitch.
I said on here before that I thought there was some ‘interference’ from certain quarters in trying to create division among the Yessers in this respect. Now that the corp. media is jumping on the band wagon, I’m absolutely sure of it.
I’m not saying people shouldn’t try to explain our election system – that’s obviously needed – but no one should be telling anyone how they should vote. I thought we were all pro-democrats here, so that being the case; if you’re standing for election, fair enough; tell people WHY they should vote for you and convince them that way. Please don’t try and confuse people or lie to them about likely outcomes when in fact there’s no way of knowing the outcome beforehand. If you’re not standing for election then, really, you need to mind your own business and vote however you wish, and let other people do the same without trying to use any emotional blackmail about “vote this way and this will happen” when again, no one knows what the outcome will be with the system we have.
There certainly shouldn’t be any shit throwing at other indy people/parties by other indy people/parties – that’s just playing into the unionists’ hands. If you need any better evidence of that, look no further than how desperately unionists are trying to stir the pot and sew confusion. That’s your answer, right there. Frankly, it’s their job to talk crap about indy voters/parties not ours. Let’s leave them to do what they do so well and concentrate on what we do so well, which is to laugh at them, then ignore whatever they say and carry on doing what we believe in anyway.
So I’d hope everyone did their own research and satisfied themselves of the facts, irrespective of what anyone else says, and then voted for whomever they felt best suited their views and/or could achieve the best outcomes in terms of that. I think we all need to be wary of the many agendas that are at play (some well-meaning and some not) and just vote for who we feel best reflects our own views and will get the job done. That way, we won’t get used or fooled and there won’t be any regrets because we’ll have done what we believed was right.
The shameless promoting of the The Glasgow Derby today/all week,by MSM and broacasters highlights exactly where we are……..through their eyes.
Happy to promote the game on one hand,happy to support division on the other,FFS,give me strength.
I cannot stand the the use of football as a means of escaping responsibility for your political choice,I say fuck football,decide your vote on the issues,not on some trivial thing,such as the colour of your scarf.
The Managing Directors of football clubs don’t give a fuck about you or your family,get over it,vote on the real issues.
The MSM/ Broadcaters are only to happy to support division,if not for political gain,then for purely selfish reason’s,reason of employment………look at how they feast on this match…wake the fuck up.
Rant Over
off*
Dan Huil said:
touché!
(I guess what I was more hinting at is just a little more tolerance here for those who – for whatever reason, wherever they are – prefer SNP+Green. They are still on the same side!)
cath says:
I have to say the amount of propaganda coming from the mainstream media and unionist commentators desperate for people not to vote SNP for their second vote is making me think…..
neocon unionist troll on this thread is advocating
snp1&2
conspiracy theories abound, who to believe?
Kirsty says:
“vote this way and this will happen” when again, no one knows what the outcome will be with the system we have.”
I do
It must be doing any thinking yoons ( as if) head in that if they vote with their heart and leave the EU, it will spell the end of their empire. Scotland and Northern Ireland will vote to remain in the EU and that will end their wee empire. So they have no choice but to vote remain and that will tear them apart. It is civil war in the Tory party at the moment and it is only going to get worse. We are living in exciting times.
What’s that terrible scraping sound?
Ah look, it’s goalpost-moving time again.
Schrodinger, you should read what Kirsty says above. Let people follow their hearts and minds.
But if you support the SNP and want the SNP to have a majority, the best way to try and ensure that is to give them both votes.
You seem to be saying something very different. You seem to be trying to undermine that.
I’ve only ever attacked the left on here and my reasons for that are there for all to see. The left generally has done nothing but shaft the people of Scotland with the lofty-sounding principles and lies. That’s the history of the Labour Party in Scotland, and others on the left like the Unions.
Why should we support the left now with second votes? That’s the road to ruination for the independence movement, mark my words.
You’re splitting the support base with your naive proposal, whether you mean well or not.
‘The Unionist objective is not to win, it is to deny the SNP a majority.’
If the Yoons deny the SNP a majority, then they will have won.
Kirsty, you are basically right. Unfortunately, there is a fundamental problem with the AMS voting system which, although not nearly as bad as Westminster’s FPTP, still offers temptations to gaming, especially between the constituency and regional votes, as we can see.
(Oh, and BTW, as I understand it, the constituency votes are not added in with the regional votes for the D’Hondt list selections, so in extremis a party that lost every constituency in a region by a mere one vote, yet had no list votes at all, would get no MSPs whatever!)
I know it has its own problems, mostly for the “constituency association” advocates, but Single Transferable Vote is the way to go (as with the local elections). Then every voter gets one ballot where they can register their own order of preference for all the available candidates. No more party lists full of placemen like Sarwar and Rumbles.
policies of different indy supporting parties are irrelevant, it is WM who decides. that is the whole point of indy, eg, what is the point of pushing for a greener scotland at holyrood when any gains are undermined by the tories policy which has decimated the blurgeoning renewables industry?
Even if we had elected all 56mps and all MSPs from rise/solidarity, this would not have stopped camerons attack on the poorest and most vunerable in scotland.
this isnt a new issue for indy supporters, decades ago, the snp were split by the republicanism/monarchism issue, the reason i stuck with the snp was because it became obvious that the republic of scotland that i wanted to see, would only happen if we 1st gained our independence. can you see a pattern emerging folks?
the idea of tactical voting is not to create a rainbow parliament of differing Indy supporting parties so that we can all hold hands and sing fukcing Kumbaya….It is to remove the unionists trumpets from our screens and media, reduce the unionist presence across the board and help bring about independence.
The failure of this tactical voting idea is down to all sides ignoring the most basic fact about this election where the list vote is not a scotland wide vote. there are 8 regions. it isnt difficult guys, you dont need to remove shoes and socks to count this high?
solidarity
Pros
this party has been the most consistent advocates of tactical voting. they encouraged their supporters to vote snp in 2015. the did not stand any candidates against the snp in 2015. they are not standing any constituency candidates against the snp in this election
Cons
if solidarity genuinely believe in tactical voting, why are they standing list candidates in the south and highlands regions? regions where solidarity will be competing directly against the snp for list msps, msps the snp may need for a majority?
RISE/SSP
pros
they have some real class acts in their party, people like Alan Grogan, Cat Boyd, Colin Fox would have been a real asset to Holyrood and to the indy movement.
they, like solidarity, are calling for indyref2 in the next 5 years. they cannot be accused of “once in a generation” comments and if elected, they have a democratic mandate to campaign for one and in one. It was the diversity of the yes movement which gave it its strength.
cons
they stood 4 candidates against the snp in 2015 and got a combined total of 800 votes, losing 4 x £500 deposits cost them £2.50 per vote, luckly, this stupidity did not cost the indy movement any MPs in 2015
the biggest draw back of RISE and Solidarity is their inability to settle their differences. bear in mind, they are asking for SNP supporters to vote for them on the list, SNP supporters who are uninterested in left wing in fighting, but the lefts inability to agre,e dilutes the effectiveness of a tactical PR list vote in a region. they didnt need to come together, just to come to some arrangement whereby they did not compete against each other, use your imagination folks, that these SNP supporters they are asking to vote for them could have selected without confusion.
greens
Pros
Harvey was and is a real asset to the yes campaign. their policy on land reform/lvt is very desirable.
Cons
I understand the greens desire, as the biggest of the smaller indy parties to be seen and also the need to stand candidates in the 2015 ge. but they could have stood in dundee where their votes would have had little effect on the outcome. standing in mundells seat and being seen to split the vote has been the most damaging thing to happen to the indy movement.
harvey walks a fine line wrt indy, he needs to, as the office bearers/candidates and old guard are not all yes supporters. but the greens quadrupled their membership after the indyref and these new members did not come from the B T camp.
the snp
pros
they have shown competance in the past and will continue to do so in the future. their mps, msps and candidates are a class above.
they delivered indyref1 and if the opportunity arises, will deliver indyref2. since it is the snp who will decide what happens going forward, their position on indyref2 is more sophisticated than solidarity/rise. it has to be. commiting to indyref2 is as dangerous as not commiting to indyref2. especially without knowing the result of the EU ref. if it is leave then the 2017 council elections will be an election based on the wishes of the people of scotland as to whether they want indyref2
cons
im not sure the snp have many negatives, except apart from the sniping by some of their supporters which, as i have pointed out, in some cases has been merited. re mundells seat.
the following criticisms are true of all parties
a complete failure by everyone to recognise that we are still in the yes campaign. politics has been taking a back seat for a few years now, simply because independence is the underlying solution to all political issues. eg, are you pro or anti EU? tough shit, it isnt the people in Scotland who will decide….sound familiar? Bella argues that it is perfectly sensible and normal for rise etc, to criticise other political parties, eg the SNP. this is correct in any normal political situation. except we arnt in a normal political situation, we are in the middle of the indyref2 campaign. any criticism of any other party is seen as an attack on the indy movement. coupled with the wall to wall snp bad bias of all traditional media outlets, any attack on the snp is perceived as jumping on the band wagon, not a normal political difference.
the future
in three weeks time, this political election will be over. i hope for an snp majority with as many of the OIPs displacing and reducing the number of unionists as possible. to that end i will be voting snp1&greens2 in my region, fife&mid, if you do believe in tactical voting, south and higland snp1&2
once this is over, drop the party hats and flags and don your yes2 or ric badges, and get over yourselves
As someone who would normally vote Green please, please, please vote SNP x2.
It’s the only way to guarantee a strong Scottish government, governing with Scotland’s best interests at heart.
Here is a slightly O/T prediction for the months after the election that will prove the point that the London Establishment are attempting to manipulate the Scottish electorate’s voting intentions;
London will try to reform the Holyrood voting system. A new rule will be introduced that means that the 2nd vote will have to be cast in favour of a party that is not voted for by the 1st vote.
Wait and see.
There’s an enormous amount of deceit going on, I think and thought before the Sunday Herald has been doing it for some time, with today being truly blatant. For weeks I’ve been treating the SH articles same way as the Herald itself – as hostile to both SNP and Independence, with the odd article to throw a bone to us “Nats”.
It will be sad if Curtice is joining in with this, his only escape back to “Honesty”, is to pull the Sunday Herald up for misrepresenting him, very publicly too. He could start with his own twitter feed, and then his largely moribund website. He might want to think about his academic credentials.
I won’t hold my breath.
angramainyu
you’ll ruin yer pedigree arguing for snp1&2 on social media, you’ll get drummed out of the rangers mason club over on the hootsmon…snigger
btw, did i forget to tell you….
The SNPouters seem to behind some of this and there is nothing Ruth would like better than a binary equation of Nationalist vs Unionist.
However, the polls have barely moved in the last 6 months. We can’t be complacent and we shouldn’t try to over-think this. The Times poll today of 51% in the constituency and 47% in the list should see the SNP home – if the Greens pick up seats too that this great. Better than the Unionist parties getting them.
This is gerrymandering during the Purdah period. It is illegal. The Unionists just do what they like. A complaint should be made to the Electoral Commission. The Unionists want electoral reform to stop the SNP from winning. Holyrood was constructed to stop any Party having a majority. It hasn’t worked.
Who’s the Troll – SNP/Green or SNP x 2
Vote NO you get nothing. People were warned.
Ruth would like better than a binary equation of Nationalist vs Unionist.
i think this is where we already are H&S but while the unionists remain divided we can clear them out of all positions of power in Scotland
we are very close to achieving our independence
Can you imagine the SNP just missing out on a majority and then being held to ransom by say the Greens or something, wait a minute..
For anyone out there who may be thinking about voting for the Ruth Davidson Party please keep in mind that you would then be voting TORY (the blue variety). The BritNat colonial media and the Tory high command are furiously working to camouflage just who they really are by presenting the Tory party as the ‘Ruth Davidson Party’.
Let there be no doubt, no room here for any misunderstanding. Ruth Davidson is a TORY. The ‘Ruth Davidson Party’ is the TORY PARTY controlled by London. It is the NASTY PARTY. And you only have to look at their regressive policies to see just how nasty the ‘Ruth Davidson TORY PARTY’ will be if it ever got a whiff of power in Holyrood.
Keep the TORIES OUT. (Aye – that means RUTH DAVIDSON and her cronies).
Oh – and KEEP UKIP OUT as well. Bunch of xenophobic, Scotophobic, Europhobic, racist feckers whose policies would insult the intelligence of pond life.
And whatever else you do, DON’T split the indy vote by plonking for RISE or SSP with your 2nd vote. The 2nd vote (as has been shown) could very well be pivotal to the SNP obtaining an overall majority in Holyrood next month. You do nt want to wake up on May 6th, having given your Regional List vote to another indy party, to find that your decision cost the SNP its majority.
Every vote–constituency and regional list–will be crucial to the SNP obtaning a majority next month and thus be in a position to legislate for IndyRef2 as and when the people of Scotland are ready for it.
SNPX x 2
Giving Goose
what region are you in?
not all regions are the same
Proud Cybernat
cant imagine there are many folk on wings considering voting tory
preaching to the converted i think
@Yesindyref2
‘There’s an enormous amount of deceit going on’
I’d say so dads. The waters are being muddied quite deliberately by the press and the resulting confusion encouraged by unionist party support.
Endgame? Either limiting or eliminating the possibility of an SNP majority. It certainly has bugger all to do with democracy or encouraging parliamentary plurality.
@schrodingers cat
I posted here months ago that if Greens and RISE and Solidarity had said something like “Right, we’ve supported the SNP in the General Election, we’re supporting the SNP for the Constituency vote, now it’s time to pay back the debt for the List vote”, there’s some of us at least would have had a hard twinge of conscience – me for instance – and actually thought about voting for one of them in the Regional vote.
But they didn’t they tried to get SNP voters by the line “A vote on the list for the SNP is wasted”, and they’re STILL at it.
Truth is the best policy, that wasn’t it.
The SNP have mitigated the Tory policies. Mitigated the ‘bedroom tax’, prescriptions, protected the NHS, student loans, personal care etc. The relief of an SNP majority (1) at Holyrood with the prospect of the ConDems coming in at Westminster. Another Referendum if there is Brexit.
Once Scotland sets up a tax collection system. It will change further. Scotland can stop paying for Trident etc. Get it out of Scotland. Stop paying repayments on money it doesn’t borrow or spend. Stop tax evasion. it will be harder for Westminster to keep on taking money out of Scotland for policies which the majority have not voted
“cant imagine there are many folk on wings considering voting tory”
I can think of one off the neocon bat…
I must be a Yoonyinist troll because I believe in SNP x 2. We all know Yoons want a strong SNP, right?
Don’t bother reading or addressing my arguments, you don’t need to because I’m just a Yoonyinist troll.
Ask Schrodinger, he’ll tell you. He’ll also tell you to split your Votes between the SNP and “real class act”s (his words given above) like Cat Boyd & Colin Fox.
So there it is. I’m a Yoon who says — if you want Scotland to have a strong, coherent voice going into the uncertainty of the EU vote etc. — you should give both votes to the SNP.
Schrodinger, a leading light of the left, is arguing that we should give half our votes to the “real class acts” of RISE.
Seriously, assuming half of Scotland didn’t die laughing when you described Fox as a “class act”, we should be telling these luvvies to fuck off and stop trying to get a free ride on the coat-tails of the SNP.
There’s talk of another referendum being triggered over the EU referendum; does anybody in their right mind want us going begging to Colin Fox for votes and permission? The guy has been rejected a thousand times in the last 15 years.
Cat Boyd? You won’t find a better example of a middle class luvvy trying to get a job whilst pretending she cares about Jannies and any other cause that undermines the SNP.
Absolutely bonkers.
I wonder sooner borrow Stu’s hammers and pummel my feet than vote Tory.
Any Labour voter that drinks the SNPouter kool aid and votes Tory needs their head examined.
Conan the Librarian™, you took the very thought right out of my head…! =grin=
“cant imagine there are many folk on wings considering voting tory.”
Aye, I know but I just wanted Ruth-the-Mooth and her Tory high command in London to see that we here on Wings know exactly what they’re up to and can see through their wee ruses a mile off. And, hopefully, the lurkers out there who are less attuned to such sleight of hand will now see what they’re up to as well.
RUTH’S A TORY. The ‘RUTH DAVIDSON PARTY’ are TORIES. Tories have been devastating this country for decades and continue to do so. They didn’t get the NASTY PARTY moniker by being nice.
Ladbrokes offering odds on snp winning an overall majority: 1/25. Odds on no overall majority: 10/1.
So it is fair to say they are very confident in the SNP winning a majority.
Every tactic in the unionist’s well thumbed play book will be used. Time and time again the public are pestered to tactically vote and they seem to resist.
We will experience much more pressure being applied to the list vote in the next two weeks but it is getting late in the day and the efforts to date have been hopeful rather than decisive.
The next tactic for the SH (which I no longer buy) will be to use its editorial on the weekend before the election to tell voters to not vote snp on the list.
This tactic will A. fail and B. destroy the Sunday Herald’s readership.
Strange times we live in.
@Macart
What you say about “Endgame” makes me wonder. On the face of it, an overall majority SNP Government isn’t the end of the Union yet, so why the panic? Surely the SH knows it can’t get away with it any more after this week’s issue, there’s been enough comments in past weeks, below the line on it, and elsewhere on social media and here on Wings.
So why is the SH throwing away its SNP support and readers, is there something we don’t know about making them panic?
@yesindyref2
i am no fan of the tactics that the ssp/greens/solidarity or rise have employed in the last 18 months, nor am I defending them
ask pnr and ian brotherhood
But I have at least been consistent in my approach.
oh, and neotroll
did i forget to say….. snigger
OT, kind of
Got back last night from a 4 day business jaunt via Mull and Skye, and “Forbes + SNP” signs everywhere, about 2 red and yellow signs (Labour?) and that’s it. I knew the GE constituency was huge, didn’t realise the Holyrood one was too.
Plenty YES signs and stickers out too.
I really really hope the SNP support give a massive overall majority Government and a big gigantic enormous smack in the teeth to hardened Unionists including the SH.
Feck ’em.
The SNP says both votes SNP does anybody seriously think they don’t know what they’re doing, does anybody seriously think they don’t have a plan, they’re saying please vote for us twice because that’s what won us it last time, we have the evidence to prove it
So why listen to anybody else
Do it, and make it a landslide, make Cameron and his pals fully aware of Scotland’s intentions
We’re still a wee region to them, let’s make them want rid of us
cat, you’ve been completely open and honest about it.
the leading light says
Cat Boyd & Colin Fox, those well known and tirless YES campaigners, yaaahs
dads
spare a thought for those campaigning in the islands and remote areas. i drove 350 miles on the day of the referendum getting the vote out. thats covering half of one ward out of 5 wards in one constituency
oh and neo troll
did i forget to etc…..
I can only echo what Dr Jim says.
Neil MacKay has been on twitter for most of the day trying to fight a rear guard action.
Saying – is it only the SH that gets slated on twitter etc.
He knows the article is a misrepresentation and as for Cat Boyd, sorry but I don’t trust her,
Also don’t rate Colin Fox at all -IMO think he is a light weight,
Schrodinger, you say you are “no fan of the tactics that the ssp/greens/solidarity or rise have employed” but you just described them as “real class acts”.
So which is it? Are you “no fan” of them or are they “real class acts”?
A simple honest question deserves a simple honest answer.
If I came on here trying to split the SNP vote and describing these people as “real class acts”, what sort of response would I deserve?
What do I know? I’m not a “real class act”, I’m just a troll.
Grousebeater @ 4.30pm
I agree with you 100%, for the simple reason that my brother the mathematician would tear me up for arsepaper for saying 200%.
On second thoughts, I agree with you 200%.
I’m arsepaper already.
Maybe the internal polling is showing a far greater win for the SNP than we know, bit like the Yes peaking just before the ref? Suddenly they all went intae panic mode…remember the copy is issued from on high.
It’s different from last May, they didn’t ‘really’ expect the total obliteration of Labour, some of the gains were far away and above what many of us even expected.
After this what did they do…continued as if nothing had changed…which is why we fume about msm’s totally ignoring the new politics in Scotland. No reflection of our democratic choice of representatives…it’s like it never happened.
Then…see? ‘It makes no difference that Scotland put 56 SNP’s members intae office in the big parly.’ Then the screw over of Smith. Every SNP amendment vetoed etc al.
But still the polls remain unchanged. I think it can’t be understated just how important this election is…and that is why the panic button has been pressed.
It really does signify the end of the union if a majority SNP government is put back intae Holyrood…it literally means the whole game’s a bogey for all unionists in Scotland, including the press.
If the SNP receives its biggest mandate ever from the electorate having lost the referendum in 2014, damn tootin’ they’re crappin’ themselves.
I think that that this whole list stuff is grossly over-rated. It is, after all, proportional representation.
2011 SNP Highland list vote was 47.5%.
SNP had 6/8 constituencies and 3 list seats. LibDems 2/0)
Had SNP won all the constituency seats they would still have had 1 list seat and the LibDems 2. So exactly the same total.
In fact SNP needed less than a 1,000 more votes to get a second list seat which would have been a loss of 1 tory seat.
It would be very good this time around to lose that tory seat as no/2 on the list is Major (rtd) Sir Edward Brian Stanford Mountain,4th, baronet of Oare Manor in the County of Somerset and Brendon in the County of Devon. Or local farmer as he prefers for election purposes.
Why don’t we try Snp,Snp and see what happens, it’s better to be safe than sorry.
@Yesindyref2
Again its just a guess dads, but I’d say the EU ref is too close to call. Other than the SGs wee BlEU Book, the IN/OUT camps are pretty much of a shambles and on this occasion, even the press are split. The result being turnabout headlines on who’s leading the polls.
In the event of a Brexit occurring in June, they need the SG crippled or at very least weakened and unable to legislate effectively.
@ Robert J Sutherland
Pelle sub agnina latitat mens saepe lupina…
Why not build on the YES unity?
Currently the SNP has various sections – students, pensioners, business etc
Why not have sub groups green, socialist, etc
We have can have one United front with the future embryonic parties post independence maintained.
…dreaming! I’m afraid so. It appears our fellow supporters of Independence see the party label as more important. Greens argue about their concern for the environment when the reality is that more in the SNP hold that shared view but recognise that Independence will be the only way to deliver it. The left cannot even agree on a party label yet ignore the greater number of socialists in the SNP who put Independence first as the only way to truly promote that influence in an Independent Holyrood. The same applies to left and right of centre members of the SNP.
Only United will we gain Independence. I do not argue against the aims or political beliefs of the minor parties but instead despair at their short term selfish approach.
They will risk our future for a moment of fame.
Any group can have the finest ideals every developed…they cannot deliver a single policy without power.
To those parties – please stop trying to strut on the devolved stage for a few years. We all need to remain driven by the one thing that will permit change – Independence.
The new Scotland will not be in the shape of ANY Party. It will represent the views of the Scottish people…and that is fine by me.
I’m a bit annoyed that nobody is talking about the PFI articles in The Herald.
I wonder if The Herald knew this would happen.
To me…..RISE is SLab in disguise. #BothVotesSNP
liz says:
as for Cat Boyd, sorry but I don’t trust her
um….you think her eyes are too close thegither or summat?
I notice when they try to show how voter share per SEAT GAINED is somehow more representative than mean voter share per SEAT CONTESTED, they have UKIP as massively more popular than anyone else. (4 million for one seat)
When you express it as votes per seat contested, you then even out inequality due to contesting more than ten times as many seats. (You would expect more votes in that case)
Have a wee look at this. I didn’t produce these figures, but had already done rough sums in my head. I was well pleased when I found these.
Party Votes per seat contested
SNP 24561
Tory 17519
Labour 14814
DUP 11516
Sinn Fein 9791
UUP 7662
UKIP 6220
SDLP 5545
Plaid Cymru 4542
Libdem 3829
Green 2152
At last someone who gets it: “Any group can have the finest ideals every developed…they cannot deliver a single policy without power.”
I would add “and they know it”, Clootie.
It’s all just airy-fairy bull designed to part students with their pocket-monies.
I’m confident that the more these morons argue in favour of splitting the vote, the more inclined we will be to concentrate our power as voters in support of the SNP.
It’s axiomatic: if you want a strong and coherent voice for Scotland, vote SNP Twice.
Look how strong and coherent the loony-left is by comparison.
Debate over.
@NeoconNat
“What do I know? I’m not a “real class act”, I’m just a troll.”
Well, out of the mouths of babes and sucklings …
@Macart
Yes, a minority Government will do the Unionists just fine, then the pro-Indy parties can be left alone to just bicker about Airport Passenger Duty and wither away.
Best thing the Unionists can all do is vote Green or RISE and leave the SNP to our own devices. A vote for Labour, Conservative or Lib-Dem on the list, is a wasted vote.
Heh-heh!
Maybe the Establishment think that placing ‘stories’ like this into supposedly indy supporting papers like the Sunday Herald will have more of a chance of persuading people to split their votes than if it appeared in say, the Daily Redcoat. If so, then expect to see much more of the same in The National over the coming weeks.
They really do think we’re a’ stupit, don’t they?
We won’t be fooled agan. May 5th is unfinished business as far as I am concerned. I want power in Scotland to be in the hands of a political party that is not controlled by its bosses in London, a party that puts the people of Scotland FIRST.
SNP x 2
People
I have posted this a few weeks back.
We each have two votes. The total number of votes per party matters. The distinction between constituency and region votes is an artefact of the d’Hund PR set up.
Give SNP the maximum total of votes!
The NUMBERS matter! We can all write the headlines if the SNP lose votes
SNP SNP
Mid Scotland and Fife
The figures quoted here are from the 2011 election.
Assume the SNP winning all nine constituency seats – their total list vote, 116,691, is divided by 10 = 11,669.
1st seat – Labour = 64,623 Vote then divided by 2 = 32,312.
2nd seat – Tory = 36,458 Vote then divided by 2 = 18,229
3rd seat – Labour = 32.312 Vote then divided by 3 = 21,541
4th seat – Labour = 21,541 Vote then divided by 4 = 16,156
5th seat – Tory = 18,229 Vote then divided by 3 = 12,153
6th seat – Labour = 16,156 Vote then divided by 5 = 12,924
7th seat – Lib-Dem = 15,103
The SNP gains an extra constituency MSP but loses a regional MSP. So no effective change in number of MSPs.
In order to oust Willie Rennie in this scenario, the Greens would need their list vote, 10,914, plus another 4,190. That means increasing their vote by 38.4%.
So if the SNP wins every seat, 4,190 SNP voters would need to vote Green in the regional vote, to replace Rennie with a Green. However, if the SNP doesn’t win every constituency seat, every SNP regional vote could be needed to retain a regional SNP MSP.
Its a gamble, because NOBODY knows if the SNP is going to win all the constituency seats. However, if the SNP does not win all 9 constituency seats, there is a danger that the SNP could lose their regional MSP, because of the ‘lost’ 4,190 votes, a net loss of one MSP.
As James Kelly types at “Scot Goes Pop!”;-
“But there again, if it hadn’t been for the Foinavon fence and the shockingly unpredictable behaviour of a couple of dozen horses, I’d have probably won a fortune on the Grand National last week.
Don’t let me put you off, though. If you’re an SNP supporter and for some reason you don’t care at all about whether there is an SNP overall majority, by all means take a punt on your second-choice party on the list. Bear in mind that if the party you switch to doesn’t receive at least 5% or 6% of the list vote in your region (an almost impossible threshold for RISE in particular), your so-called “tactical” vote will at best be totally wasted, and at worst will backfire by helping to increase the number of unionist MSPs. But hey, that’s the nature of gambling.”
Over the past couple of months I’ve ‘had an itch’ about the SH and have been buying it less. In the past few weeks I’ve also noticed this same ‘itch’ with the National, especially last week. For crying out loud – Nessie? and then – Yemen? Now I’m not against these kind of stories, but not on the front page when there’s an election in a couple of weeks!
Thank you Rev for hitting my ‘itch’ on the head – go get ’em boy!
Independence first, last and always, THEN we can think about Greens, Rise etc.
@HandandShrimp
Don’t write Complacement. I wrote it a couple of days ago and a few of people where very nasty. 🙂
Derek Bateman puts a good argument …
http://derekbateman.scot/2016/04/17/rise-with-ukip-anyone/
… basically, who scares the shit out of the Westmister establishment?
Greens, Rise, Sheridan? Or … The SNP? Vote accordingly!
I would put it another way. Which would the Westminster establishment fear most … a SNP minority, but a pro-Indy majority? Or, a solid SNP majority?
I know some people seem to believe we can have cake and eat it ie. a SNP majority PLUS significant numbers of other Indy supporting msps. The safe option for me is still SNPx2.
Electoral Reform Society,
Electoral Commission,
Information Commissioner,
All “regulators”,
the Scottish Justice system.
They are all rotten to the core.
If there is any risk that the concerted unionist onslaught has not damaged the SNP enough, the “independence supporting” The National too will show its true colours.
It has already been heavily promoting RISE and the Greens.
It will do it even more openly leading up to the election.
The National is as anti-SNP and anti-independence as the rest of them.
Only the more gullible of independence supporters have been duped by its window dressing.
The Sunday Herald has been fully exposed.
Not long before The National is fully exposed too.
briandoonthetoon
If you’re an SNP supporter and for some reason you don’t care at all about whether there is an SNP overall majority…..
aye, sure whatever, why i dont read kellys blog anymore, the guy is an erse
if you dont care that the unionists win all 7 list msps in fife&mid and like listening to the whining of wullie rennie,
then vote snp1&2
Supporters of “Business for Scotland” and “Lawyers for Yes” should not criticise “NeoconNat”.
Their members are as much exploiting capitalists as “NeoconNat” is.
Conan the Librarian™ @19:14
De me, quid vides, quid accipias est!
yesindyref2 @ 18:43 said:
As I’ve posted already, I suspect they’re afraid of a Labour collapse (eg. via a poor turnout, esp. if the PFI story gets wider currency).
Dear all, be of better cheer. Following on from my earlier gentle parry with Dan Huil, maybe we are getting just a little too uptight about the whole thing. It doesn’t follow that list votes for Green were ever votes lost from the SNP anyway. Likewise RISE. They might more easily have been gained from other parties, respectively FibDems or Labour, for example.
@Robert J. Sutherland
Tamquam vitrum perlucidum…
2 (SNP) votes, 1 nation- Scotland’s absolute autonomy comes ever closer.
What legacy do we want to leave behind? Trident/zombie economics/ the new precariat class/no social protection/corrupt financial institutions/illegal wars and dodgy arms deals/a political elite working for the 0.1% with a dearth of aspiration and ambition for Scotland- or the alternative vision -delivered at the ballot box.A mandate given to the party spear heading Scotland’s journey to independence.
The day’s of dead tree newspapers are gone, we need to move on nobody reads yesterday’s news and comments. It is a dead art today’s kids are focused on their phones. Dead tree newspapers are a thing of the past, apart from the the bbc which is becoming increasingly irrelevant from the real world. In ten years there will be no more records, mails or scotsmans they will join the iandependent on line. The yoon journalists have a problem recognizing this but will have to deal with it. Television is declining. People will not watch lies, once they are shown to be lies. Kids are are all on line. Yoon propaganda is all conventional television, not watched by kids. The future of Yoondom looks dark.
The establishment are petrified of SNP getting overall majority again. They know if that happens then it’s all over, the only question is when? ALL means will be used to try and prevent that, ALL MEANS,
SNPX2 nothing else, you might be listening to a government employee. Westminster that is.
Interesting twitter thing from Leask. Apart from his usual line of “we know best, you lot are amateurs and know nothing, you should know your place serfs and low-lifes”, he’s had exchanges with people but then someone posts Rev’s question to Curtice, and Curtice’s reply:
John Curtice: “Sounds a bit strong. For ‘should’ read ‘might want to consider’! The report points out the risks of not voting SNP on the list vote as well as why people migfht want to do so.”
Note Curtice’s use of the exclamation mark after “might want to consider”, used as emphasis old school.
No reply to that one from Leask. It seems the media communications expert doesn’t understand that lack of reply can indicate guilt.
https://twitter.com/LeaskyHT/status/721644850945335297?lang=en-gb
Conan the Librarian & Robert J. Sutherland
I don’t have a clue what you’re on about but I love the subversiveness, even if it’s a tad exclusionary. 🙂
@CamB –
Okay, have an educated guess at what this means –
‘NeoconNat multa foeda loquuntur, annon?’
omnis amans militat
O/T I guess a lot of you will have seen this already but surely this tweet from a senior politician is a resignation/ deselection issue to be pursued at length.
It certainly is ‘back to the bad old days’ of Old Firm BS
https://twitter.com/murdo_fraser/status/721694551770034176
(Apologies, Cameron, it’s just some foolish banter. But as someone once said, everything sounds much grander in Latin.)
Ian Brotherhood
You’re just taking the piss now Ian, English is enough of a challenge, thanks. 😉
I’ll take a stab though. Did you mean that certain posters appear to have adopted multiple identities in order to hide their agenda?
@ CameronB the first one’s a wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Not sure what the second one is about, a clear glass? Come on Conan – enlighten us!
Someone, Ruby I think, posted a link to Prof Curtice’s report. It’s worth a read and makes none of the assertions which the SH article attributes to him.
http://electoral-reform.org.uk/sites/default/files/files/publication/The-2016-Scottish-Election-Briefing.pdf
ian brotherhood
Did you mean that certain posters appear to have adopted multiple identities in order to hide their agenda?
mea culpa
I am of course, a composite troll
Robert J. Sutherland
No need to apologise, I didn’t mean to interrupt the flow.
I must remember that observers should not interact with the subject, so as not to influence events and undermine the analysis. 😉
@CamB –
Very close, but far too polite!
Anyway, it’s just a laugh, eh? If you Google English-Latin translator it comes up right away.
Give that man a Coacas!
Briandoonthetoon
If the SNP total vote increases and the LibDem vote falls we gain a list seat. An increased SNP vote and a lower LibDem vote are highly likely.
…especially if people vote SNP X 2
@tartanpigsy (9.13) –
Yeah, that cropped-up in the WOS Twitter feed earlier – I honestly thought it was a wind-up along the line of the faux ‘Alistair Darling’ tweets.
One suspects that refreshments had been taken…
Quick trip to local supermarket earlier, had to stop the car because inebriated nutter standing in the middle of the road thought ‘I’ was a taxi. The BMW coming the other way wasn’t keen on slowing and gave him full-blast before swerving around him…ten seconds later, had to make a very swift right turn to avoid fight spilling from pub involving five men and five women…on way back from shopping, another two casualties staggering along pavement, ready to keel over at any moment.
We’ll get the full hairy details over the coming days and weeks, but yeah, it’s back to business ‘as usual’.
🙁
If the SNP total vote increases and the LibDem vote falls we gain a list seat.
except the lib dems got 14000 votes alone in NEF 10 months ago
the snp vote will need to increase by at least 10% from is present polling position of 45% in the list(same as the combine constituency score during the 2015 ge) for the snp to win a list seat
it aint gonna happen
vote snp1&green2
and get rid of wullie rennnie
I don’t vote SNP because I want Socialist Workers Party policies.
I don’t vote SNP because because I believe in Thatcherism or the free market.
By the same token, I don’t vote SNP because I believe in named persons or think they are good at managing bridges or building schools.
I vote SNP because I want Scotland to be independent.
@NCN –
That’s nice dear.
Are you ready for your cocoa?
“Ars” tenuiorent bracciorum – sounds like the Sunday Herald motto. It’s possibly the wrong de-clench-ofem.
Brotyboy: “I agree with you 100%”
🙂
If you missed your weekend reading:
Neo-con economics exposed: http://wp.me/p4fd9j-6lI
Scottish education fleeced: http://wp.me/p4fd9j-6sI
schrodingers cat, I’m no pollster, but I could see former FibDem voters in NE Fife turning to the Greens instead.
On the other hand, assuming any FibDems remain sans Rennie the Relentlessly Roseate, who would likely take over their rump? Mike Rumbles..?
I still cant get over ERS/Juliet Swan’s delighted to have Prof P on board tweet and what’s the daft half a head photo of the Professor anyway. Logic dictates, another yoon buffoon in action. Will she get carpeted by her boss, probably not, anything UKOK goes.
Although Professor Curtice may have been sticking his tongue out at her. It can’t be that he’s not photogenic, he’s a classic,
http://www.amazon.co.uk/The-Incredible-Adventures-Professor-Branestawm/dp/1862307369
if he only had loads of specs on the back of his brilliant head.
For younger viewers, Professor Branestawm was a so so, possibly overrated book series of adventures in the 70’s. Catweazle was much more fun. On balance, that plagiarising nutcase JK Rowling’s execrable Harry Potter grot, makes them all look like War and Peace. Christ I’m old.
One of the reasons I will vote for SNP in this coming election is quite simply that I believe they are best placed to govern Scotland in the next 5 years.
Part of that of course is their ability to manage infrastructure projects such as bridges, schools and hospitals better than the alternatives.
@cat
But suppose there’s a swing back from the SNP to Labour on the Constituency vote, and Labour get Cowdenbeath and maybe even one of Dunfermline or Kirkcaldy?
The SNP would get the 7th list seat and maybe even the 6th, but not if the vote was split over to Green.
“I simply don’t accept a document of doom and gloom from the Treasury”.
Chris Grayling who was Leader of the House around the time of the VOW.
Well, he should know.
but I could see former FibDem voters in NE Fife turning to the Greens instead.
thats what the snp branch members said during the 2015 general election for NEF and the unionists were going to do the same in mundells seat
the libdems got 14000 votes alone in nef, the rest of fife%mid has little support but the entire region will add a few 1000s votes to their list total. on 45% of the vote in 2011, the snp is sitting on 12000 they need to increase their vote by 10 x 4000 = 40,000 votes to overtake the libdems. it aint going to happen
but if any of the OIP can increase their support by or upto 6%, rennie is toast
there are many arguing for an snp 1&2 but they are not in fife&mid region, eg those in the south and highland regions, and they are right, and snp1&2 is the only vote in these regions.
but fife&mid has got to be snp1 & OIP 2,
I think we are over-thinking the list vote thing
There are no Green, SSP, Solidarity or Rise constituency candidates. As all these parties support a pro-independence position the 4 or 5% of the votes going this way will most likely vote SNP in the constituency, intent on voting for their own parties on the list. The number of SNP voters do likewise will be small. It is therefore not surprising that the polls always show the SNP constituency vote 4 or 5% ahead of the list vote.
We need to focus on maintaining that high constituency vote and the list will look after itself. We should not get drawn into pointless battles with the other pro-independence parties who are generally lending their vote at the constituency level. If we do that at the expense of focusing our fire on the Unionist parties it will only help Labour and the Tories while they are on the ropes on a whole range of issues.
Ianbrotherhood
I posted something about ‘ normal business resuming ‘ earlier but it disappeared .
The media have been building up this fixture well basically since it was drawn .
We’re all talking about the election but surely we, us have to improve things and demand better.
Today Sky and the BBC had an opportunity ( given the groups, reports, projects, evidence surrounding this fixture) to say – hardly any of the players have played in this fixture before, circumstances have changed , let’s do it differently
Did they ? Of course not !
Scotlands so much more than who governs us ( important as that is) it’s about what we lot out here find acceptable .
How it logical to have BBC Scotland promoting ( dont care about SKY ) in the run up to the game , the special atmosphere ‘ crap to spend the next few weeks reporting whose been arrested following that ‘ special atmosphere ?
Tell you what for those reading who work at the BBC , next time instead of 3 paid fans sitting in the studio going over the good old days, ask 3 members of the public who’ve been effected by domestic violence ( as the game plays in the background ) to tell their ‘ memories’ of the game !
Seriously, I had a relative on the phone from Germany asking about the report in the possible rise of domestic violence- that is how Scotland is shown to the rest of the world !
Most discussions of Scottish oil focus on how the revenues were siphonned off and squandered by the UK government. Economic theory suggests that this might have actually been a blessing in disguise for us though in terms of economic diversity.
The Dutch Disease Theory
“Dutch disease is the negative impact on an economy of anything that gives rise to a sharp inflow of foreign currency, such as the discovery of large oil reserves. The currency inflows lead to currency appreciation, making the country’s other products less price competitive on the export market.”
The tendency for an economy suffering from the Dutch Disease is for manufacturing and exports generally to collapse. Thr Norwegians seem to have avoided this sort of malaise by consciously and deliberately keeping oil revenues firewalled.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2014/11/economist-explains-2
Would we have the thriving tourist industry we have now if things had been managed differently in an independent Scotland? How about our food exports, textiles, or what about the thriving games industry?
I like to think we could have all that and more but who knows?
I have a lot of time for people coming on here and giving a difference of opinion, but people coming on here and just talking shite, well that’s a different matter altogether.
If Wullie Rennie’s the sole LibDem left in the Parliament it’ll be worth it for the entertainment value. 🙂
SNP twice…..already voted! Voting for something you don’t believe in is dishonest.
O/T I’ve only one thing to say to the yoons. PFI YA BAS! Tic toc tic toc. Big jail awaits tic toc
SNP1 SNP2 yoons clunk click.
@NCN –
That’s nice dear.
No, you can’t have anther Hob-Nob.
The Sunday Herald can go do one. Liars, charlatans.
‘Let’s pretend we support Scottish independence, then a few unsuspecting schmucks will buy our product, haha!’
Rotten and corrupt unionists to the core, just like the rest of the UK’s MSM.
Get tae fuck, Sunday Herald! And GIRFUYz!
https://archive.is/948vb
Did anyone read the story about bullying at Glen Almond.
Vile little shits!
I’ve just discovered that if you archive the Herald page then you bypass the six articles in four weeks restriction.
But suppose there’s a swing back from the SNP to Labour on the Constituency vote, and Labour get Cowdenbeath and maybe even one of Dunfermline or Kirkcaldy?
the snp won glenrothes won with 60% of the vote 10 months ago
kirkcaldy and cowdenbeath a 12000 majority
dunfermline a 11000 majority, a swing of 39% which broke the swingometer
so where is this massive swing back to labour you are talking about?
bear in mind all the other constituencies have been snp since 2011
i understand the risk is too great in other regions, south and highlands. but i am not arguing for a tactical vote in these regions
there are many who argue the snp are too risk averse, perhaps they are with good reason, but this chance to get rid of rennie is too good to miss.#
carpe idem
Fred says:
If Wullie Rennie’s the sole LibDem left in the Parliament it’ll be worth it for the entertainment value.
less funny if he is your near neighbour
‘I have voted once and it wasn’t for a Conservative (wasn’t for anybody, it was a referendum on devolution).’
So ye never voted in the referendum in 2014 or for the SNP.
positum stercore
Offshore we would do custom made ear plugs. Normally red/green. For port and starboard. You would get guys who would point blank refuse to have a green ear plug. So my question is as a non interest in football type. Do Ranger old or new supporters vote green.
Decided to see what I could find out about professor Curtice. Did you know he is editor of ‘NatCen’s British Social Attitudes survey’?
Now where do you think they get their funding from ?
From their website ( http://www.bsa.natcen.ac.uk/latest-report/british-social-attitudes-32/acknowledgements.aspx ).
Quote:
“In 2014 we gratefully acknowledge the support of the Department for Work and Pensions, the Department for Transport, the Department for Communities and Local Government and the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills.”
Might just be one of those things but always nice to repay/help the people who fund you.
NeoconNat
You do put out a mixed message, in rather polished prose btw.. One minute your values are those of a ‘bleeding-heart lefty’, the next, you come across as a reactionary social Darwinist. What’s your game? Do you still consider me a racist?
Oh…forgot to link to reference for ma last comment, mea culpa:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/under-his-hat/comment-page-1/#comment-2131769
I never trusted ERS in the first place. It just plain whiffed badly and made me cowk. You have just confirmed my gut feelings about them.
Even funnier if the Lie Dem Leader and Pig Porn Director Wee Wullie “Penny on tax for the weans” Rennie doesn’t even get a seat.
@HandandShrimp
Agreed, maybe more than enough has already been written. The result of both the constituency and the region seats will become clear on 6th May and not before no matter the arguments put forward between now an then.
Basically I’ll settle for the vote of the Scottish electorate, if it’s not as we wished then it’s a setback, just as the first referendum was. I’d guess we, those seeking Independence that is, will have to learn to deal with more setbacks as well as victories before we are rid of this Union.
No point trying to press ahead with a second Independence referendum if the people of scotland are not ready for such. We should look on these elections as a measure of support not just for the SNP but also guide as to how the wind is blowing with the electorate regarding Independence.
cat. Think of Carmichael sitting on his lonesome in the House of Commons, the sole LD representative from Scotland, and then think of Willie Rennie in Holyrood, the lone representative of his party there. Or him not elected.
Which is the nastier thought?
Poor Willie.
CameronB, I can see why you find it difficult to categorise. What you need to remember is that you have your own values and prejudices and they are probably distorting things.
There’s no obvious antagonism between the philosophies of the left and social Darwinism to me, but since I don’t subscribe to either I’m not the best person to ask.
I can’t remember using the word “racist” to describe you. It’s unlikely that I did that.
My prose which you call polished is actually constrictive and terrible to work with. English isn’t my first language.
Inverclyder says:
Even funnier if the Lie Dem Leader and Pig Porn Director Wee Wullie “Penny on tax for the weans” Rennie doesn’t even get a seat.
yup
no more leaders interviews for the libdems, no more air time on the leaders debates,
if the lib dems drop 2 or 3 and rise pick up the same in glasgow or central regions, he will be replaced.
one less unionist voice plastered across the media
@NeoconNat
Supposedly Dutch Elm Disease is not transmutable to humans. So what happened?
@NCN –
‘English isn’t my first language.’
Clearly not – as you ably demonstrated above, it’s Latin. (Such a pity that your comments are all Greek to most folk…)
CameronBB,
Sorry for butting in, I’ve not been on this site for a while – what’s the script with the hate to NeoconNat? I feel like I’m missing something!
cat, further to my posting, would you seriously want to deprive us of the next televised LibDem conference with those two lonesome LibDems, which would go something like this?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qApsAPnoH7c
@angramainyu2015
Are you from Slovenia by any chance, just curious is all.
cat. Think of Carmichael sitting on his lonesome in the House of Commons, the sole LD representative from Scotland, and then think of Willie Rennie in Holyrood,
dads
think of them not being there at all, no more leaders debates or 20 mins on sunday politics to spout his pish or daily appearences on reporting scotland or scotland tonight or 2016.
or any more questions at holyrood
go figure
NeoconNat@10.20
You are right regarding the inflationary risks to an economy due to the sudden influx of large amounts of money from a new source, (such as oil).
Most of us probably remember the huge inflation of the 1980s (up to 15%) when the pound was perceived as a petro-currency as massive amounts of oil flowed in.
This was caused by the incompetence of the Treasury in failing to put most of it aside in a sovereign wealth fund, and to invest in infrastructure projects, as Norway has done.
It is a tragedy that the foolish squandering of the oil wealth actually reduced the take home pay of most people due to this inflation, and few actually benefitted except the banks. Surprise! Surprise!
That’s all correct, K1. I wasn’t in the UK or Scotland in 2012/2013 and wasn’t entitled to vote. I’m not complaining about that, the way it was done was fair.
Good to know you’re paying attention.
Oleum est maledictio…
🙁 🙁 🙁
NeoconNat
My apologies, I mistook you for Angramainyu. However,
You recently stated that you favoured the ‘law of the jungle’, in terms of who sinlks or swims and recommended zero welfare for the able bodied. I’m not sure how this fits in to left-leaning values but I’m not a political scientist. However, I agree that the left have historically been far more enthusiast supporters of eugenics, than the right.
Ah think we have ah Tarquil Cring worthy on here
@ Kirsty 11.05 The clue is in the middle of his name CON
@angramainyu2015
You never answered K1, in fact you rarely answer any questions raised directly to you.
The only elections in Scotland in 2012/13 was the council elections. Did you vote in the referendum in 2014 when I presume you were in Scotland? Did you vote in Holyrood 2011 for the SNP?
Have you ever voted in Scotland? No porkies now, I can tell 🙂
Thepnr, no.
cat – you’ve got to admit the youtube I posted would almost make it worth it, if someone was clever enough to put Carmichael and Rennies’s faces on it. Though in the case of Rennie there’s not much need. I like the bit at the end.
Anyway, back to polls and ballots, the latest survation showed SNP on 44% in the list, LibDems on 6% and Greens on 10%. That would on the maths give Willie the 6th list seat, and Cons the 7th. Bump the Greens up to 13% and the Greens get the Cons off the 7th list seat, but Willie is still hanging in there in 6th.
On the other hand if the Greens instead of targetting the SNP, just managed to get 1/6th of the LibDem voters in Mid Scot and Fife, the Greens bump Willie off.
Kirsty
I don’t hate as that get you nowhere.
I got attacked a while back by a new poster called Angramainyu, who appeared to be a bit of a social media celeb but was a total fraud. I was under the impression Neoconnat was a new pseudonym but I’m apparently mistaken.
He has been the target of vitriol but he has invited the majority of it, IMHO. I don’t think his message hasn’t helped.
Thepnr says:
17 April, 2016 at 11:08 pm
@angramainyu2015
Are you from Slovenia by any chance, just curious is all.
Ruby replies
Ha! Ha! Ha! Brilliant!
Jezera Rosa NeoconNard!
I don’t think his mixed message has helped. 🙂
Thepnr & Ruby
I’m sure I’m not the only one who was also thinking along those line…… OMG, I’m in a forum of paranoids. 🙂
Kirsty
That one got away from me a bit, it should have read, “I don’t think his mixed message has helped”. 🙂
CameronB, I wouldn’t have described our system minus welfare for able bodied people as “law of the jungle”. Have you ever lived in a jungle?
My views on what would be best for long term unemployed people who are able are just that, views on what would be best for them. Your views (and most prevailing views) are more about answering to your conscience rather than what’s actually best for them.
It’s interesting that you mention the jungle. One of the things you shouldn’t do in the jungle is feed the animals. Doing so really isn’t good for them, it’s best that they learn to be independent and find their own food.
You might think the chimps are cute but It’s better for everybody, us, them, the jungle as a whole, and long term sustainability, if they don’t get lazy and come to depend on handouts from humans.
I gathered that you’re not a political scientist, btw.
It’s a shame to laugh at ‘Jezerna Rosa NeoconNard’ the poor creature is no right in the heed! Completely loco!
@ CameronB your no new tae this game we,re aw paranoid, paranoia keeps the brain cells sparking lol.
@CameronB Brodie
Currently standing as the Conservative and Unionist candidate for Glasgow Anniesland!
@ Cameron
You’re not mistaken – a number of people have pointed out that hovering over or clicking on NCN’s avatar is quite informative.
Aw fur fek sake we,re gonna get a Leture on Jungle Book next.
CameronB Cease Decist in the name of sanity Yours Mine an aw the rest of the Wingers lol.
dads
the libdem vote even here in mings old seat has collapsed. the only reason they got 14000 in may is because 2000 tories and about 2000 slab supporters voted tactically for the lib dems
the greens have overtaken the lib dems and the 7th seat which was won by the snp in 2011 (libdems got 6th seat then) is now wullie rennies last chance
if rise, solidarity or the greens can pick up 15000 votes
rennie is gone
Back tae miss speiling its Lecture (edit function bypass)
NeoconNat
Have you ever listened to yourself? “Them”. Gooble gobble….. What precisely is your background in? Sociology? Economics? Dissembling? One thing is pretty certain though, you’re not the simple punter you were projecting yourself as, the other day.
yesindyref2 says:
@CameronB Brodie
Currently standing as the Conservative and Unionist candidate for Glasgow Anniesland!
i kent the tories were hard up but comoan, no cameron surely ?
cat. I expect we’ll go round the houses on this again, and probably won’t agree again, but it probably is the one region where a tactical vote might not harm the SNP.
And it’s kind of strange that it’s the one region picked by John Curtice and the Electoral Reform Society as its detaield example to try to prove the “wasted vote” principle.
It’s really very kind of strange and of course entirely coincidental.
Or a case of picking the statistics sample to try and prove the case for a general population, something no decent responsible statistician would ever ever ever do.
Like never.
The sneaky fecker. ;(
O/T
Conman
Stephen Lyall aka Harry Sahm of Yessie fame is appearing at Glasgow Sheriff Court on Thurs 21st Apr,he was convicted on Frid 15th Apr at the same Court of Stalking 130 hrs Community Service Order.
Dont be buying his merchandise to fund his own pocket.
Why did ‘Angra Mainyu’ change his moniker to NeoconNard?
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-professor-of-pish/
He made quite a few post on this Professor Pish article.
schrodingers cat
It wizney me.
cat – that could be a bit confusing for Jezerna “abiesalba” Rosa, heed’s slovenian girlfriend.
@Ruby
Well spotted. I’m sure it’s totally coincidental!
Thanks for your answer, Cameron.
More bonkers posts by Angra Mainyu here:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/with-permission/
One of the things you shouldn’t do in the jungle is feed the animals. Doing so really isn’t good for them, it’s best that they learn to be independent and find their own food.
You’ve heard the monkey, sounds like good advise for a change. Starve the biggest monkey of food and he/she will lead the pack elsewhere. That’s my intention from now on.
You see, my reasoning is quite simple, not only does the troll stir up division in order to separate one supporter from another. He hopes to get those that don’t engage to feel sorry for him and then look badly upon those trying to get rid of him/her.
This is an open forum and I am absolutely supportive of opposing views being posted here, I draw the line though on consistent personal attacks on regular posters for no reason other than to create doubt about another posters sincerity. This is the sum of the majority of NeoconNats posts to date since his/her first appearance. If your not aware of this or doubt me then sorry, but you will need to read through his previous comments for yourself.
This NeoconNat “character”, I believe has been here before under another handle Angramainyu, his avatar will tell you as much if you care to click on it, he stirred so much shit back then but received plenty in return that he didn’t last longer than a couple of months.
The fact that NeoconNat left Angramainyu on his avatar does show a certain naivety. He should have come on with a clean sheet, Angramainyu at one time boasted of numerous twitter accounts with more followers than the Rev. This was proven to be false and I suspect that is why he abandoned this site.
He was made a fool of.
The role of the big monkey such as NeoconNat is to establish a foothold, then the troop will be invited in, look at the state of the Scotsman BTL articles for proof of that.
Apart from that, for me personally though I can’t stand the crap he writes when he does make an attempt at discussion or debate. All of it is designed to extract an angry response, have a look.
yesindyref2 says:
cat. I expect we’ll go round the houses on this again, and probably won’t agree again, but it probably is the one region where a tactical vote might not harm the SNP.
so glad you agree with me, after spending so many years arguing on the same side, I find it strange to be on the opposite side of the debate
what i will say dads is, getting an snp majority is a priority, getting rid of as many unionists as possible is and has been a “nice to have”. but it is a sub plot to a bigger picture.
i hope after may, differences will be forgotten, party politics will take a back seat again….and the yes campaign will be re ignited….
time to pick up the fiery cross once again
long live a free, sovereign and independent Scotland!
More bonkers posts by ‘Angra Mainyu’ here:
http://wingsoverscotland.com/with-permission/
‘yesindyref2’ you’ll enjoy these! He suggested you should change your moniker!
@ Thepnr Spot on he,s not the 1st one to try & cause devision on this site but they all failed, to many wide & diverse views of Wingers.
cearc at 7.08
Major (rtd) Sir Edward Brian Stanford Mountain is number 2 on what list
@NeoconNat/Angramainyu –
You’ve been well and truly busted…
Do you have anything to provide by way of a valedictory?
(Ain’t it pertinent that ‘valedictory’ contains the words ‘dick’ and ‘tory’?)
Cheerio.
so cameron is a unionist stooge…who would have thunk it
footpad….never darken my door again you, you, you, wolf in sheeps clothing….how could you cameron?
solved the energy crisis though, the birlin’ o’ yer ancestors in their graves will power scotland fer years tae come
🙂
Scottish Labour’s Kezia Dugdale to unveil pro-unions bill
The Labour leader is hoping the proposals will breathe new life into the party’s Holyrood election campaign after a weekend poll again showed they are neck and neck with the Conservatives, who now stand a strong chance of emerging as the main party of opposition in Scotland.
https://archive.is/baDmm
———————————————————-
‘Poll suggests Labour brand now toxic in Scotland’
https://archive.is/LHydJ
http://tinyurl.com/zppa762
List of articles containing posts by ‘Angra Mainyu’ aka ‘NeoconNard’
Thepnr everything you say in your 12.28 post is spot on. I totally agree. The very first post I read of ‘NeoconNard’s’ I suspected he was a flame-baiting troll.
‘I don’t vote SNP because I want Socialist Workers Party policies.
I don’t vote SNP because because I believe in Thatcherism or the free market.
By the same token, I don’t vote SNP because I believe in named persons or think they are good at managing bridges or building schools.
I vote SNP because I want Scotland to be independent.’
Can you see the problem Angra?
You’ve Never voted in Scotland as you admitted to Thpnr.
Your’e disengenous and have been thoroughly nasty to boot.
Last comment ever to you Angra: don’t ever refer to me again on this forum. End.
Clootie at 7.16
Exactly. That was the idea of forming the Scottish National Party. It was designed to accommodate people of varying political views united only in a desire for independence.
The door is wide open today for exactly the same. Some people don’t get it.
schrodingers cat
Think you’re smart, eh? One of my grannies was English. 🙂
@Thepnr
Great posting.
@Ruby
He was quite amusing, kind of like a naughty kitten torn between rubbing your legs to get food, or scratching you to get attention. But he is getting boring, the fate of many a troll – shed a bit of sunlight on them and they turn to stone.
@cat
It’s fun to argue, and it keeps us sharpening our edge to use on the Unionists. Kind of like sparring!
Quick kook at the Herald show it continuing its misrepresentation of the Curtice report but by selective quoting rather than outright deceit:
http://archive.is/Nh8qW
Perhaps the happy chappie Prof gave them a bit of slappy slappy.
lol at cameron, is english birlin’ more energy efficient than scots birlin’…answers on a postcard care of patrick harvey
dads
i havent bought or read an article in any newspaper for years, although i sometimes still comment btl. (those i havent been banned from that is) long since given up on conspiracy theories about them. the bias is so obvious to even the unionists recognise the bias as fact.
re call me dave
So a spurious Herald Poll brands Labour as toxic in Scotland. Labour has been toxic to me since my Shop Steward old man left it when James Callaghan became PM. Good to know that the rest of Scotland might be catching up with the Prophet that was my now sadly deceased father!
@cat
It’s fun to argue, and it keeps us sharpening our edge to use on the Unionists. Kind of like sparring!
true, but how come we can do this without falling out when so many others cant??
one reason i have a problem with the smaller parties, they seem too caught up in their own divisions and miss the bigger picture
cat – ach it’ll heal up, less than 3 weeks to go, and then all back on the same side again.
I voted for Angela Constance as deputy leader of the SNP for her idea of a wider YES, and perhaps after the election something should be done about that. I don’t think electoral pacts are a good idea though, the Electoral Commission would look askance at that, and anyway it could trigger Unionist ganging up. At the moment they’re fighting each other even more than we are!
‘Osbourne says leaving the EU will mean cuts in public services and NHS’. It’s like living in a parallel universe. The guy who is cutting public services and NHS.
It is unbelievable the Murdo Fraser posted that tweet. The Rangers/Celtic carry on again. Brainwashed since the day they were born. No wonder the terraces are empty.
Gerrymandering journalists are so pompous. No wonder sales are falling.
Labour/Unionists – illegal wars, banking fraud and tax evasion. The Chilcot Report.
Heads up….
Very much a worthy cause.
http://indyref2.scot/the-bbc-bias-documentary-an-update
Death by hammers if I’ve done that link wrong… Death by BBC is a bigger threat to all of us.
Not commenting to get involved on the what way to vote spat.
However, I do not think it is quite correct to engage in ‘the SNP got x vote in the General Election 2015, and there’s no sign of a swing away from them’ type chat.
It’s two different elections. The key thing here is turnout. I’d love to think that everyone remains super-engaged and that the turnout on the day will be massive.
I suspect it will be up on previous Holyrood elections, but there’s no way of knowing in advance whether that hunch is right.
There’s also no way of knowing to what extent turnout will be up on 2011 if it does increase (I’m convinced it will because I think people in general take our parliament even more seriously than they did 4 years ago).
However, if there is indeed slippage from the General Election turnout, there is also no way of knowing in advance whose supporters will stay at home in greatest numbers or what effects it will all have.
So, I don’t think we can do straight extrapolations from GE results. This is just another reason why I won’t try to ‘game the system’ but vote for what I want. If others don’t vote with me in sufficient numbers for the outcome I desire to be the result, that’s democracy, but I won’t have cheated myself.
Bob Mack
10 out of 10 sir,
SNP x2
Anything else is taking the rise!
Scottish Gov should demand same funding as Northern Ireland
NI (2million) raises £28Billion + gets £14Billion (50%) more = £42Billion (Norwegian level)
Scotland (5million) raises £54Billion + £27Billion (50%) = £81Billion (Norwegian level)
Or £54Billion + £9Billion (better spent) = £63Billion + 1/6 – £11Billion = £73Billion (rest of UK level)
Scotland has to pay £4Billion debt repayments on money it doesn’t borrow or spend. £1Billion on Trident/illegal wars. £1Billion could be saved on a tax on ‘loss leading’ drink. Scotland has lost £4Billion a year in Oil revenues. Oil sector taxed at 60/80% when prices had fallen 75%. Losing thousands of jobs. £3Billion? is lost in tax evasion. HMRC not fit for purpose. = £13Billion.
Westminster could just shut down British tax havens set up by Thatcher.
If Scotland developed the Oil on the West (until there is an alternative) with TTIP (£8Billion). Scotland could have full employment.
O/T links
http://indyref2.scot/rousing-the-angry-villagers
http://www.snp.org/forward
SNP manifesto: no new referendum until majority of Scots support independence
http://archive.is/OxUiF
https://tompride.wordpress.com/2016/04/17/scottish-tory-inflames-dangerous-sectarian-tensions-with-unprofessional-rangersceltic-tweets/
Here is the article archived in my links at 8.22am if anyone wants to do the poll
https://inews.co.uk/essentials/news/politics/snp-manifesto-no-new-referendum-majority-scots-support-independence/
So the Electoral Reform Society, formed in 1884 or something like that, with a 15 member council made up of a few Labour and LibDem and 1 Green plus a few others, is according to fellow Labour supporter Peter Swindon, to hold an event in Glasgow on Wednesday night called:
‘One Party To Rule Them All: Does Scotland Have a Predominant-Party Problem?’
From their strategy: “We will put voters first. We will work to secure victories for voters today, as we build the credibility, connections and voice we will need to win in future. ”
and they do this by implying that those very voters all wear rings and are dark lords, ring-wraiths, commanded by the dark lord, completely subservient to the dark lord, unable to think for themselves.
They bring themselves into disrepute with that event title, as well as making themselves an Electoral Commission target for campaigning against the SNP without registration, though I think they’d have to spend more than £10,000.
The arrogance and ignorance of the anti-SNP brigade knows no bounds nor decency.
No question, Murdo Fraser was “unprofessional”, some might even say downright stupid, in tweeting that “Queen’s 11” message after yesterday’s Scottish Cup semi-final.
However, was it not Murdo who wanted the Scottish Tories to be seen as less a branch office of the Toxic Tories down south and more a Scottish conservative party?
In which case, he is merely demonstrating the old “Orange” Scottish Unionist Party has not entirely died.
His tweet, and the reaction to it, made me smile. On reflection, I think I prefer Murdo Fraser to Action Krankie – but I will still be voting SNP x 2.
The assumption is that the people now at ERS have principles to reform.
I now have my doubts.
Political event in Glasgow will ask whether Scotland has a ‘predominant party problem’
The event on Wednesday evening, will see the launch of
‘One Party To Rule Them All:
https://archive.is/loznA
SNP X 2.
In GMS , Radio Scotchland this morning , John Curtice was awarded authorship of the ERS report thereby bestowing it with further credence it does not have. About 7.50 am , check it out.
@Socrates
” On reflection, I think I prefer Murdo Fraser to Action Krankie – but I will still be voting SNP x 2.”
I concur. Well said.
Murdo was knifed by the Tory Party. He can’t be all bad!
SNP SNP EU
Previous Tories have “played the Orange card” to oppose Home Rule. Lord Randolph Churchill, Winston’s father, most famously in 1886 to spoil Gladstone’s efforts at bringing in a Home Rule Bill.
“he played on Protestant fears of Dublin “Catholic” rule and encouraged Ulster Protestants to organize, which they did, beginning to form paramilitary drilling units.”
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=219260471550706&id=224048917610708
Is Sturgeon like Maggie Thatcher? … asks Brian Monteith.
I’ve got a cat that comes into my garden and does it’s business and disappears… Just like Brian here!
———————————————————–
Brian says.
Before I go on I must stress to readers that I do not write the following copy in a gratuitous manner to play the (wo)man rather than the ball. I simply want to draw attention to a number of similarities and raise the question in an innocent and objective fashion. In street parlance this is normally referred to as “just askin”.
https://archive.is/XmP5b
——————————————————–
What a plonker! 🙁
Murdo Fraser was just winding up the vile cybernats.
However I suppose there are those among the knuckle-dragging orange persuasion who really do think of themselves as the Queen’s eleven, and shouldn’t be encouraged.
By the way, I noticed a much larger number of the the new stripy, Rangers flag and many fewer Union flags in the crowd. Perhaps a good sign.
What the hell are the ERS having anything to do with the Scottish Parliament elections for ? It should be a poster child for them , a truly proportional system that ensures a spread of seats between the parties.
Is it perhaps that they are an irrelevance at UK level where they are simply ignored.
Murdo Fraser is a stirrer.
Was at a recent ‘Aye Right’ event with Paul Kavanagh & MF where, under Q&A, Murdo Fraser admitted he is a federalist and unpopular in Tory circles (but had to whisper at that point as Ruthie wuz in da building!)
Vonny Moyes finds herself lining up with Ruth Davidson in an attack on the SNP over “Named Persons,” in todays National. She certainly doesn’t want government intervention into family lives where some weans are battered senseless.
Who hasn’t had a crack at the SNP lately? the opposition excluded. Join the queue.
Can we put the whole monotonous all Rangers Fans are anti-Indy to rest please. My wife and I are both from Rangers supporting families. She’s been an SNP supporter since before she could vote. She persuaded both her parents to vote SNP, or at least to tell her she did. One of them, at risk of revealing too much, was an official in the local Lodge. The majority of the boys in my family are also supporters of independence and the SNP. One of them in part because the government had fucked him over as far as his pension went. For all I know we’re all pro-Indy.
If I wasn’t to begin with then the way the HMRC decided that the oldco could be sacrificed as an example to other clubs might have tipped me over the edge. Seriously the EBT was definitely dodgy in many ways. For a start even if it was above board and advances on loans there’s always the simple fact that that loan facility should have been declared to the SPL. That had sod all to do with HMRC and the legality of it was not why they were binned from the SPL. What you need to be aware of is that why the whole send the money abroad and pay it later idea fell flat on its face was that it was using a loophole in the law that allowed people to “launder” their wages offshore and receive them tax free. When the tax law was tightened so that it didn’t matter where you got paid from you still had to pay the difference in tax between what you did in the country you claimed to be being paid in and in the UK Rangers were facing millions in pounds they hadn’t budgeted for. Bad enough and not something any sensible investor would want to take on. The main problem is that HMRC took it upon themselves to demand payment upfront. Laying aside any dislike you had for RFC how fair would you think it’d be if it was you being asked to pay tax in advance on money you hadn’t even earned yet?
That aside the recent DR front page about players facing huge tax bills might give a clue as to HMRC finally twigging that if those were genuinely loans and they have been written off due to the company issuing them going out of business then they’re just like any other loan of that nature. The recipients of the loans then become liable for the full tax on them as if they’d received them as payment.
Or if you want a better example of why anyone serious about the Church of Scotland, which all members of the Orange in Scotland are meant to be, just remember the snide wee paraphrase Alistair Darling came up with in one of the debates pre the Referendum. The one about thinking for a moment that you might be wrong. I think it’s attributed to Cromwell in the film but it’s actually from a letter to the leader of the scots, CoS, army before the English Army is sent to put us in our place. Freedom of worship isn’t high on the agenda of the british state.
Obviously there are morons on both sides of the equation. Some Celtic fans are no better if in fact worse. The whole being an Irish team and anti-Monarchist to boot does call in to question if they actually care about how well Scotland would do if independent or are just in it to suit their own ends.
So yeah we’ve got sections of two team both more concerned with using Scotland as a battleground in more ways than one and more concerned with Northern Ireland than here. That’s sections of rather than entirely.
@ orri, must say the blue n red flags displayed are a big improvement on Butcher’s Aprons. 🙂
I see the Times are playing silly buggers again in their latest SNP bad piece. Oh and they’re stilll claiming ‘once in a generation’ was an agreed upon outcome or pledge by the Scottish government.
Strange there isn’t a single line about that in either the Edinburgh agreement or the Smith Commission proposals, or indeed the Scotland Bill settlement. Those being the only three documents which have any relevance to legal outcomes from the referendum and that no media output EVER references those documents when making their claims on the subject.
Spooky, but true.
Still, never let the facts get in the way of a good narrative and all that eh?
Macart says:
18 April, 2016 at 9:37 am
I see the Times are playing silly buggers again in their latest SNP bad piece
Ruby replies
What is the headline of the times article?
Do you have a link?
Sunday Herald, cancelled.
Honest reporting is hard to find, sinister manipulation and campaign misnomers all over its fading pages.
Usually buy the National 4 times per week.
If the National smells a rat, and it’s from its owners own prejudiced position…
..can we expect a headline in the National saying..
‘Sunday Herald flips to anti-SNP stance.’?
Not buying another National until they (from within) expose deliberate fudging by their paymaster.
Brian Monteith in the Scotsman article is a seriously odious article against Nicola. A total mealy mouth rant.
He compares her with Thatcher, in an attempt to suggest she is acting like her.
Of course as Thatcher was and still is hated in Scotland is the reason he tries to smear Nicola in such a way.
A creep of a man, and complete arsehole of a “reporter”
JUST SAYING LIKE!
The Electoral Reform Society turn out to be yet another Unionist pressure group, or so called ‘think tank’. Oh well, hey hoe, at least now we all know where they stand.
call me dave says:
18 April, 2016 at 9:16 am
Is Sturgeon like Maggie Thatcher? … asks Brian Monteith.
I’ve got a cat that comes into my garden and does it’s business and disappears… Just like Brian here!
———————————————————–
Brian says.
Before I go on I must stress to readers that I do not write the following copy in a gratuitous manner to play the (wo)man rather than the ball. I simply want to draw attention to a number of similarities and raise the question in an innocent and objective fashion. In street parlance this is normally referred to as “just askin”.
https://archive.is/XmP5b
——————————————————–
What a plonker! 🙁
__________……………………
Had a quick scan of the article. He thinks the NHS in Scotland is in meltdown! If so then NHS is a wee greasy blob by comparison.
He mentions schools – not doing well under SNP apparently. Clearly not noticed that the Dept of Education in England has suddenly discovered they are 10,000 places short in Primary Schools for the next intake. And failed to notice that the schools Labour built are falling down.
@Ruby
Rev has the page posted on his twitter feed, but basically – New independence vote ‘within five years’ (splash).
The premise of which falls apart as a claim within a couple of paras when the true context is applied. Oh and the caption under the FM? Dang!
Orri-fair do’s but there’s no danger I could support a club with supporters who unfurled that govan stand sized banner vote no to independence and who wave hundreds if not thousands of union flags on match days.
@ schrodingers cat
one reason i have a problem with the smaller parties, they seem too caught up in their own divisions and miss the bigger picture
Thats my problem with them as well cat its not that i have anything against them ,i think because they are relativly new to politics as a political entity they have a lot of growing up to do and that just doesnt happen over night.
And i also agree with your choice in your region getting rid of head bummer yoons is a good reason to try a tactical ,in my region there can be no other choice than SNPx2 we are infested by yoons over here need to do some cleaning for the big spring clean in 2017 might need to build a few new jails to keep all the yoon criminals in from my region 😉
Doug McG says:
18 April, 2016 at 9:10 am
In GMS , Radio Scotchland this morning , John Curtice was awarded authorship of the ERS report thereby bestowing it with further credence it does not have. About 7.50 am , check it out.
……………………………
I thought he did author the report. The copy I saw had his name on it as sole author.
Peter A Bell on journalistic dishonesty
http://indyref2.scot/artless-dishonesty
IB to NCN:
“Do you have anything to provide by way of a valedictory?
(Ain’t it pertinent that ‘valedictory’ contains the words ‘dick’ and ‘tory’?)
Cheerio.”
I enjoyed that. Ah, the banter…
😀
Btw, IB, if you get the chance to read that Jacobite stuff I mentioned, I would be interests in your views on o/t thread sometime.
That Brian Monteith piece in the Hoot is disgusting and dishonest. Obviously aimed at the feeble minded.
Roll on 5th May, to get a break from this shitstorm.
I have to finish my leaflets today.
Legerwood at 9.50
Should have read: ‘NHS England is a wee greasy blob by comparison’
Got distracted – my husband spoke to me!
Les Wilson@9.45
Well said and in addition to all that you say “a Flump”.In footballing terms this means a supporter of Hibernian FC,
During his brief foray into public service he was indeed prone to “Hibsing” it as they say in the vernacular.A complete and utter zoomer.
@ call me dave 9.17. Monteith should be lookinh at the NHS in England & the Education system both are in deep doo doo ,health boards over burdened with dept,education wont be able to accommodate all children in the next term due to school sizes.& waiting in the wings the Academies debackle.
Monteith should get on that interweby thing for up to the minute news,well it was last weeks news, but did,nt fit in with his poison piece.
Down here in the South of England I see the PRS operate the voting for pensions funds and the like. I assume they trade on their impartiality, morality and such, plus the facility and organisation to do this.
It’s going to be interesting to watch what they do next.
I was also very pleased to see many fewer Union Flags at the football, it would seem the reasonable folk are flying their clubs colours on a new stripey flag
Decent supporters distancing themselves from the Zoomers is the right way and good on them for it
http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/14433571.Labour_brand_now_toxic_in_Scotland__poll_reveals/
Looks like the Herald doesn’t know its First Minister from Scotland!
Edited in England?
Maybe just wishful thing on Gardham’s part.
The Isolator says:
His article is worthy of the man himself, a creep of the worst order.
I have to add a my absolute anger about Murdo Fraser’s tweets.
I am not a football fan, boxing was my sport, but the obvious bigotry shown by him is an unforgivable event by a second rate politician who should be kicked out of his party.
However, I doubt it will be spoken about by Ruthie, if that is the case then the Tories will then show how destructive they mean to be in Scotland and will do anything to hold their prize asset at any cost.
Fraser should be kicked out, nothing less, no apologies accepted. Let him crawl back under his rock and hide there like an unwanted weed.
Hamish100 says:
“Looks like the Herald doesn’t know its First Minister from Scotland!”
Priceless! Saved for posterity …
http://archive.is/TAgZH
Got to be SNP 1×2 don’t want to take the risk of a Grand Yoon coalition if SNP doesn’t get a majority…
Re Flags,
Two I could spot were a variation on the Costa Rica one , http://flagpedia.net/costa-rica and another that is probably this http://flagpedia.net/the-netherlands flown upside down but unfortunately flying it that way makes it look like one of these https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_flags_with_blue,_red_and_white_stripes
Of course in the same vein of international brotherhood celtic fans could always adopt this https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flag_of_Ivory_Coast
Cheers Macart I found it.
http://tinyurl.com/hwnstsw
I wonder why they print a different headline online to the one in the print edition
Online edition:
‘Sturgeon pledges to retain the right for second referendum’
Print edition:
New Independence vote ‘within five years’
The ‘once in a generation promise’ means there can be a referendum on 18th September 2019 does it not?
The Wings Twitter contributors are a witty lot I always get a good laugh when I go there!
galamcennalath says:
18 April, 2016 at 10:38 am
Hamish100 says:
That shows the level of professionalism that now exists at the Herald. Sooner it falls the better.
I noticed this when I was on the Wings Twitter page:
http://tinyurl.com/zx83ty2
Independence supporters ‘would waste vote on SNP’
I reckon we are going to be bombarded with stories like this.
Day two at the Herald:
https://archive.is/loznA#selection-903.0-974.2
I wonder why all these Unionists are so concerned about Independence supporters! 😯
@Ruby
‘I wonder why they print a different headline online to the one in the print edition’
Heh, same reason they do anything concerned with Scottish politics and the SG. They have their narrative of tartan barbarians to sell.
As we’re well aware by this point, the press are selling a dishonest line on Scottish politics and Scottish life to their wee bubble. (shrugs)
S’up to them, but so far it’s no winning them many friends amongst the voting public where it counts.
I can add my name to those who will not be buying the SH again. Yesterday was quite appalling. Orders obviously came from on high to try to put a spanner in the SNP’s works as it was all going far too well.
Sorry to bring up something as trivial as football but I thought it was disgraceful a few weeks ago when Dunfermline Athletic clinched the third tier title and it received not one mention in the next day’s SH. Plenty of coverage of the English Premiership though.
Hamish100 a7 10.44 and others
This piece just means the Herald has joined the Brit campaign to get Ruthie into second place. It’s been going on since last October.
The SNPs big job now is to firm up the list vote. It would be very significant if the SNP achieved a majority vote on both FPTP and the list.
This could be done by starting to put together NOW an Independence Convention made up of a wide range of influential figures with big media presence with the object of describing the case of independence and continually campaigning for it.
Ruby says:
“Independence supporters ‘would waste vote on SNP’
I reckon we are going to be bombarded with stories like this.”
Firstly, in some regions where the SNP MIGHT take all constituencies, it has some merit. It’s a gamble which may pay off, or may go wrong. Which secondly, means many Indy supporters will argue the case for it. And thirdly, it is the very thing Green, Rise, Sheridan wants.
Given the coverage and promotion it’s getting, I am beginning to think it is also part of Unionist strategy. The more the colonial media push it, the more suspicious we should become!
Exactly why did the SH publish such a totally corrupted version of Courtice’s thought? Conspiracy usually smells of shite.
Vote for the party which best suits you, simple.
Voting tactically, may not result in what you expect.
FT puts the boot again. Coffee time with all yoon press Monday gets the juices flowing like Ruthie babes’s, sorry WoS:D
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/d6ae6e50-04a2-11e6-96e5-f85cb08b0730.html?siteedition=uk#axzz46AdTtakV
High quality global journalism requires investment.
“Nicola Sturgeon, first minister and SNP leader, has chosen not to use new powers over income tax as a tool to pursue greater social equality and has merely tweaked the local council tax, a levy she once denounced as fundamentally unfair.”
and
“But the allocation process, known as the d’Hondt method, is extremely difficult to forecast, a feature that is fuelling fierce debate among supporters of Scottish independence about the best tactics for maximising their impact on May 5.”
or
“However, supporters of smaller pro-independence groups say that, since the SNP is on course for a near clean-sweep of constituencies, gaining any further “top-up” seats from its regional lists will be very difficult. This is because the system is geared to ensure proportionality, giving smaller parties representation. As a result, say the other pro-independence parties, many second votes for the SNP would in effect be wasted.”
Dont waste your vote says the FT. Ligger Neil loves an FT hack on his BBC Politics show and no wonder.
Nowhere in UKOK hackdom, do any of them examine the effects of PAYE tax rises in approx 10% of UK economy, because that’s not where they’re paid to do.
FYI
Dynamic earth Scottish affairs committee from Edinburgh just started
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZqarUPsPmY
Legerwood @9.54 , you are correct and I am wrong ,,,, again! Thanks for that.
However , my view that the ERS should butt out of Scotland and concentrate their activity and funds on Westminster where they are actually needed remains.
Just watching the Remain campaign on SKY TV doing a project fear on our exports and their biggest worries, they say, are Financial services, Cars and wait for it Scotch Whisky
I’m not any financial expert on stuff but it seems to me England has Financial Services OK, but Cars? there are no British cars, they’re all foreign companies who own them, we just assemble the stuff don’t we so these companies could move anywhere anytime
Whisky, During the referendum we were told whisky wasn’t a big enough export for Scotland to base anything on, now all of a sudden “Britain” would be in the crapper if we weren’t in the EU and had these exports
So is Whisky the same as oil then, valuable for Britain but worthless for Scotland?
Given that in Scotland we make 70% of Britains Gin, is that worthless too
The whole EU in or out shit has become exactly the same as “our” referendum with huge lumps of shit being thrown at each other by each of the respective campaigns
I might be just a simple minded cult following cybernat bewitched by our current SNP queen and her mind altering machine, but the remain campaign in it’s eagerness to convince the English to do what they want have made the case perfectly as to why Scotland made an Arse of itself by voting NO
If the complete and total dumplings who voted NO can’t see how flaming obvious that is and vote YES next time we shouldn’t allow them to breed in future because there’s something wrong with their brains and if it’s genetic they need to be stopped
That last part was humour (No it wasn’t)
I think we should all acknowledge that it really is a horrible voting system. It should be changed for STV in multi-member constituencies, which is much more genuinely proportional and gives SNP voters, for example, a chance to prioritise which SNP candidates they like best.
Rise are the dream ticket for the opposition. They need them to split the pro-independence vote. Most, if not all countries have gained independence democratically, by electing one majority pro-independence party. Having many small pro indi parties creates confusion and infighting.
The SNP are a slick well oiled machine. They have to be like this, as 95% of media attack them on a daily basis. The SNP are the reason we got a referendum. Their competence ,dilligence and forsight have taken us to the verge of independence. The new kids on the block are just background noise and will achieve nothing.
The time for party politics is post independence. The time for unity is now! I hope you are listening Sillars and co. Or maybe you don’t value independence as much as me.
“”Doug McG says:
18 April, 2016 at 11:16 am
Legerwood @9.54 , you are correct and I am wrong ,,,, again! Thanks for that.
owever , my view that the ERS should butt out of Scotland…”
________________________
Agree. Their web site seems very Westminster oriented. Maybe it’s the people they employ now who think they can/should stick their oar in up here.
Another giant UKOK freak out and why they will never give up control of their Scotland region. Plunge in anywhere, the great toryboy world economic nightmare in action. Adam Smith aren’t exactly lefties.
http://static1.squarespace.com/static/56eddde762cd9413e151ac92/t/5713703ab6aa60f0aa6a3b6d/1460891708785/Nigel+Hawkins+-+UK+PLC.pdf
“In the equivalent to the Profit and Loss Account, the 2013/14 figures show a massive deficit of £213 billion, which mirrors the vast – and ongoing – public sector
net deficit for the year.
The Whole of Governemt Accounts Balance Sheet equivalent reveals a net liability of an astonishing
£1,852 billion, caused mainly by the £1,302 billion public sector pension liability
– 93% of which is unfunded. Aside from the recent contribution and benefit changes that will impact in 2017, far more radical measures are needed to cut this vast public liability, especially by cutting the level of Defined Benefit (DB)
pension membership. ”
Vote NO and save your UKOK pension raged Gordon Brown. But its 93% unfunded though, which he didnt mention on his Project Fearing for they UK displays.
He’s loaded now so wont give a flying UKOK fuck.
The very fact that unionist blogs, media, “think tanks” etc are pushing the wasted vote nonsense tells you all you need to know.
The cannot stop a win but the headlines on SNP vote drops / public turning away from the SNP etc etc will dominate the day the results are announced.
Even if the smaller Independence supporting parties picked up seats (which I doubt) the spin will all be the percentage of the SNP vote.
The London bubble measures the SNP vote as an indicator of Independence support (rightly or wrongly)
Make it a great turnout and a huge SNP vote
SNP X 2
Hamish100 @ 10.24
Not only do they not know who is First Minister but when they changed the photo on-line to show Ms Dugdale they used a photo in which she is wearing SNP colours – yellow and black.
Big Jock says:
“Rise are the dream ticket for the opposition. They need them to split the pro-independence vote.”
“SNP …. competence, diligence and forsight have taken us to the verge of independence. The new kids on the block are just background noise and will achieve nothing.”
Indeed. My support, including membership and hands on help, are because they can deliver Indy.
I have sympathy for the Greens and some of their policies. I could imagine voting for them at some point well after Indy has been achieved. Much water to flow first.
However, I am becoming extremely concerned about Rise (and Sheridan) soaking up list votes and achieving nothing for the cause of Indy. More importantly, having a negative effect on the results.
Scotland needs first rate savvy politicians to guide her to independence. I see none on the far left.
I fear the “new kids” are being hyped a little too much in the colonial media. Why? Because it suits the Unionist cause?
@Nana
Thanks for that link. Very interesting stuff. But less than 10 folk watching this on-line.
Life expectancy in Scotland statistics linked to similar length railway journeys compared to those in places in England and Wales.
Naturally they are shocking! About 14yrs of life less in Scotland. But we knew this already.
Nothing seems to work to remedy the inequality, no single policy is the silver bullet.
Scotland has the best kept health records statistics in the world
Who knew! Well the expert witnesses did.
Obesity going to be as big a challenge as smoking was/is.
Generally overall life expectancy is creeping up and the government view on pension age is based on what society is willing to pay.
Older folk are better protected currently and younger workers currently at a disadvantage.
It’s all down to political decisions
Should Scotland have a lower pension age?
Unwise to comment says expert Mr Macnought.
No pensions money in a kitty as most older folk think (we all knew this on Wings)
Mistake to assume the Nat Insurance pays for services that is typically wrong the politicians have misled us all.
—————————————————————
Looks to me like SNP x 2 and let’s take independence later and do a Scottish fix. 🙂
@Tinto Chiel (9.57) –
🙂
Just saw your comment.
Can you please refresh my memory? I have a stack of notes and links, bit of a mess – what precisely were we discussing? Was it connected to Dr Archibald Cameron?
“Scotland needs first rate savvy politicians to guide her to independence. I see none on the far left.”
Quite so, galamcennalath, and there isn’t anyone on the horizon. The Left is intrinsically schismatic anyway, caused by too many Socialist Holy Grailers of the “infantile disorder” type and Security Service infiltration. Rise and the Greens are being punted so hard by MSM because their secret polling probably suggests a huge collapse in BLiS. The Herald story re Toxic Labour today seems to show that they’re toast, so it’s big up Ruthie and the smaller parties in a last stand for The Union. Stop the SNP at ant cost, me hearties.
The trouble for them is that the drugs don’t work no more, Ishmael.
The BBC and the Sunday Herald via The Electorial Reform Society want SNP voters not to vote SNP 1 & 2 …….. That means …..
SNP Voters Should Vote ……. SNP 1 & 2.
O/T Warning sorry , The Vote Splitters are working overtime on every single ” Independence ” supporting website and blog , is this coincidence or a organised attack on the only party that can deliver Independence ? , just a thought .
Will have to wait for i-player to double-check exact wording, but John Beattie had Prof Ailsa Henderson on his show at approx 12.15, explaining ‘tactical voting’.
Don’t want to misquote, but what I heard her say, in giving an example towards the end of the interview was ‘if you want independence you give your second vote to a smaller pro-indy party’.
Here’s the professor in action:
‘What Next For Scotland? Why Scots Voted No’ –
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bAC42VUwjXU
In Bhutan they measure success by the level of happiness, I don’t know how they do that but I definitely think there’s something in it
Folk work better when they’re happy, they don’t commit suicide if they’re happy, less crime if people are happy,
Longer lifespan if folk are happy, people are healthier if they’re happy
All those things would save any Government Billions if they just found a way to help people be happy Hmmn? what could they do?
Why doesn’t the the Government want people to be happy then
is it an Ideological hatred of ordinary people or just plain greed to not want to spend a little to gain a whole lot more
And they wonder why we don’t like them
@ERS
See that bit on your website ‘who are we’
Gonny change that to:
Biased unionist arseholes, masquerading as pseudo intellectual neutrals, to attract the unwary.
There, fixed that.
In other news. All Under One Banner have just posted a vid of Mr & Mrs Sheridan (wean must be at school), and its very sad.
It’s a deep and serious convo about using the peach ballot to vote for their party.
I posted naw – SNP x2
Toxic Tories
Toxic Labour
Toxic Lib Dems
The only wasted vote is not voting SNP x 2.
@Robert Graham
Yes, I think it’s a concerted attack on all social media sites including this one.
I just laugh and get out leafleting and working in the SNP hub.
Let’s just ignore theses splitters that don’t seem to know the history or aims of the SNP. An Independence party with many political views but one aim……
Scottish Independence! #BothVotesSNP
Tinto Chiel says:
“….secret polling probably suggests a huge collapse in BLiS. The Herald story re Toxic Labour today seems to show that they’re toast, ”
Funny how Jim Murphy, just a year ago, was the great hope for the Union. Now the rats abandon the sinking ship.
Looks like the Unionist strategy, as displayed by colonial media and their political running dogs, is … Rally round Ruthie’s solid Union flag, try to hold some constituencies, try to reduce the SNP list vote. Hope, against the odds, to deny the SNP a majority.
If the can achieve a SNP minority, but pro-Indy majority, the Unionist know they have won because Indy politics will descend into in fighting with pressures to ‘be bold’. In practice this would mean sharp turn left which would lose middle ground support.
It might begin as a Pro-Indy majority, but independence is not where it would lead, and Unionist strategists know this.
Nicola Sturgeon came in to my wee office in my hoose through the power of the Interwebby and said Jim can you please give me both your votes on polling day and I said Absobloodylutely Boss and I will because I don’t think the SNP are trying to sabotage their own campaign by asking me to do that
But I do think everybody else is trying to sabotage the SNP campaign by continuously asking folk not to
Clydebuilt says:
“The BBC and the Sunday Herald via The Electorial Reform Society want SNP voters not to vote SNP 1 & 2 …”
YES! Why? That should be ringing big alarm bells!
It’s not rocket science. If you want an Independent Scotland, you have to use both votes for the SNP.
Anything else anyone tries to tell you, or confuse you with, is just plain bollocks.
Every tactic deployed by the establishment to reduce the SNP list vote reinforces how terrified they are.
Ladbrokes offering 10/1 on no majority so they are pretty confident the SNP will hold off the challenge.
A majority is a shot in the arm for independence… We need to take control of the run-in, enjoy ourselves, express ourselves and avoid getting bogged down talking up remote tactical voting. Why vote SNP twice? Quite simply they are the only credible Scottish Government and have performed well in the last 2 terms.
Badges on, posters up and get talking. Enough with the distractions.
Dcanmore said: at 2:35 pm yesterday
“ERS is headquartered in London with a Scottish branch, it is headed by Katie Ghose who is a Labour Party member and has tried on four attampts to be selected as a Parliamentary candidate. Her partner is Andrew Harrop, general secretary of the Fabian Society. Celebrity ambassador for the ERS is Dan Snow.”
Dan Snow,a Celebrity Ambassador!
The same Telly historian who organised the Love-Bomb letter to Scottish voters pre-referendum,and whose father-in law is Gerald Grosvenor,6th Duke of Westminster a billionaire landowner inheritor of many things,including 96,0000 acres of Sutherland.
He also own chunks of Mayfair,Belgravia and Pimlico by inheritance.
Some of the signatories of the Love-Bomb Letter:-
David Rowntree,Labour Party supporter
Sir Cliff Richard
Lord David Puttnam a Labour Peer
Telly Historian David Starkey
John Barrowman,actor
Sir Clive Woodward,former England Rugby Team Coach
Dickie Bird,retired cricket umpire
and Eddie Izzard,friend of Jim Murphy. 🙂
Dr Jim
It all boils down to moral philosophy. The Yoon status quo sits on top of two elephants, utilitarianism and colonialism, which operate in unison to support one another. Utilitarianism does not foster virtue but obedience. Just one of the many reasons I don’t think a successful future will be achieved through 18th century approaches to political economy. Remember though, I’m, no political scientist. 😉
Murdo is scamp with his Quennie 11 tweet. Like she could name even one of the 14 players that graced the field. 🙂
I did like the new Rangers flag. Celtic should adopt something similar in their team colours. Very Serie A in appearance. A good look.
BBC r4 lunctime news with top toryboy Brexiteers going nuts at Treasury Project Fearing for the EU.
It is extremely funny listening to exact same UKOK BetterTogether crew that had massive Project Fear UK civil service Treasury terrifying the life out of Scotland backing, all now screaming not fair at same Treasury wonks.
Cant wait for the 2016 UK Civil Service awards, like this one where they brag about how they saved England from losing control of their Scotland region
http://www.civilserviceworld.com/articles/news/hm-treasury-team-wins-special-civil-service-award
“In the Treasury, everyone hates you. We don’t get thanks for anything. This is one occasion where we’ve worked with the rest of Whitehall.
“We all had something in common, we’re trying to save the EU here, and it came so close. We just kept it by the skin of our teeth. I actually cried when the result came in. After 10 years in the civil service, my proudest moment is tonight and receiving this award.”
He added: “As civil servants you don’t get involved in politics. For the first time in my life, suddenly we’re part of a political campaign. We were doing everything from the analysis, to the advertising, to the communications.
I just felt a massive sense of being part of the operation. This being recognised [at the Civil Service Awards], makes me feel just incredibly proud to keep the EU in control of Britain, you may thank me now toryboy world”
A near wipe out and a complete wipe out are two different things.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_East_Scotland_(Scottish_Parliament_electoral_region)
Historically we know that 5% is not a hard and fast rule to get a list seat. It’s a reasonable attempt at a rule of thumb for all regions but is demonstrably wrong given the SNP got a list seat on an average of 4.75% in the NE in 2011. The next in line for that would have been the Conservatives on 4.7% ( ie 14.1 / 3 ), then Labour on 4.1% (16.4 / 4 ) then the Greens on 3.9%
Looking at those figure anything just over that 4.7% would have been enough.
Also looking at the figures https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011
The general rule might be seen that the more parties there are the lower the average percentage for a seat is. There’s also an additional allowance for the number of parties involved.
The NI has the postulated seat averages at the last allocation ( as in what the parties seat average would be if they were to get the seat remarkably close ) which leads to the point that once you get round to talking about wasted votes you have to consider that if you consider the aim is to allocate a tariff of votes for a single seat then every other party has spare seats. In this case it’s almost 1 each for 4 parties implying that there’s enough votes in that scenario for 17 + 4 = 21 seats. 1/21 = 4.76 so there you go. As a rule of thumb I’d put the average figure for wasted seats at 1/2 so 1/19 = 5.26% isn’t a bad guestimate if there are 4 parties in with a shout in a 10 constituency region. 1/17 = 5.88% for a 9 seater. But that’s only an estimate of the median value and not the range.
Regardless of the above the following might be taken as true, the more seats in a given region the higher the probability that enough variation in the FPTP results will mean that there’s a win by a party other than the one with the highest national polling. Especially if there are still strongholds amongst them such as Orkney and Shetland might turn out to be depending on whether Carmichael has succeeded in his bid to completely fuck up their chances. That means that there is always a chance of at least one list seat in the larger regions. It also means that the divide the number of seats you’ve already got guestimate is out the window.
And if it is true that RISE and UKIP have a snowball in hells chance of gaining votes then their presence reduces the median range down to 1/20 to 1/18, 5 – 5.6 %
Admittedly adding another 2 players should serve to reduce the spread of values at each region. But all their being there does is make it paradoxically easier for a party that does manage to clear the deck to go on to gain list seats.
All of a sudden there are calls for more accountability and pluralism.
Have Ruthie and Kezzie and Wullie instructed their own supporters to vote for another party on the list ?
Siren calls from all and sundry because they want to dash independence against the rocks.
Dr Jim
I wasn’t quite as clear as I could have been. Obedience does not foster positive, constructive emotions about the self. Ergo, it is a task to feel good about one’s self and contribute positively to society. A moral philosophy that promotes virtue would have the opposite effect, I think.
Where’s Chic when you need him? 🙂
P.S. Any fancy stuff like that would be some way down the line though. Until then, SNP x 2. 😉
Craig Murray
too late to change it now craig. indeed, my proposal to change the council electoral system was refused by the snp conference. it is too late now the manifesto has now been published and the snp now have no mandate to change the system if and when they win a majority in may.
shame really, the 2017 council elections will be the most politicised local elections ever, and since nicola has not commited unconditionally to indyref2 in this manifesto, the council election will be the means of creating the democratic mandate we need to launch indyref2.
it will also be very difficult taking control of all 32 councils, something we need to do to run indyref2. the councils control the ballot box and the polling stations
heedtracker says:
18 April, 2016 at 1:22 pm
BBC r4 lunctime news with top toryboy Brexiteers going nuts at Treasury Project Fearing for the EU.
It is extremely funny listening to exact same UKOK BetterTogether crew that had massive Project Fear UK civil service Treasury terrifying the life out of Scotland backing, all now screaming not fair at same Treasury wonks.
yup, tory boy Fox on sunday politics sniggering slyly at his own hypocracy, in 12 months time, he will of course reverse his hypocracy again. people will not be conned 3 times in a row
The Colonial Media, Ruth the Truth and Kezia- (I dislike the Saltire). Can ram their Brit empire and identity down my throat all day long. But they will never , never make me British!
Just as I can’t force them to be Scottish, they cannot force me to be anything other than what I feel inside.
They’re tellin’ Labour stump tae vote fur Tory rump, they’re sayin’ RISE and Green will keep the parly keen, but we aw know the only road tae take us tae our dream is the double wammy heedbut of twa votes fur SNP.
SNP SNP so good we voted twice…
@orri
Good post about Rangers. I like the flag – is that brand new? It’ll help remove the Unionist tie-up to supporters, and I know supporters who are both SNP members and YESsers.
ERS – I forgot earlier to post the URL to the “who are” of the 15 member council:
http://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/the-council
Look like fine people but apart from most being Unionst party members, they’re all political campaigners even if just for AV and PR voting. Which makes it very very dodgy having an event just 2 weeks from the election, attended by Lesley Riddoch, Andrew Tickell, and Gerry Hassan, as well as CommonSpace editor Angela Haggerty.
And the title of the event itself is very propogandaist and anti-SNP.
OT
Ian Botham on Brexit: “England is an island and we should be proud”
Aye, and he’s not the only one cheering for Greater England.
schrodingers cat @ 1:48pm
“the councils control the ballot box and the polling stations”
They also drip feed the local yoon press with yoon propaganda along with SNP Bad stories for the masses not on the t’internet.
By changing the stories fed to the press the whole game changes and the local press will be shown up for who and what they are.
schrodingers cat says:
“it will also be very difficult taking control of all 32 councils, something we need to do to run indyref2. the councils control the ballot box and the polling stations”
Agreed. Something I’ve been preaching for the last couple of years.
The GE15 and SE16 must be SNP wins for the mandate to govern Scotland and to go for the Indyref-2 should the people decide so.
The local elections-17 are very, very important because the Government can order a referendum but the actual running of the Ref. is done at the local level.
Whose fingers are on the ballot boxes and polling stations as S. Cat says?
Who might not be “neutral” shall we say..?
I have always been suspicious of the electoral reform society and will continue to ignore whatever they say.
And will do what I have always done in the Holyrood elections and that is to vote SNPx2 even if that means my second vote doesn’t guarantee us a list MSP.
Ian Botham on Brexit:
“England is an island and we should be proud”
They just keep on coming and the list gets longer and longer:
http://wp.me/p4fd9j-iY
schrodingers cat says:
18 April, 2016 at 1:55 pm
heedtracker says:
Ian Botham wants out of the EU, so on Botham’s proud island of England, will that great UK Civil Service impartiality mean no rewards this year, for their crews of unbiased apolitical grafter/bullshitters, that wept when they won the Scottish referendum? Probably. Either side that loses wont be very happy about stuff like Treasury’s wonks pretty terrifying project fearing today but it all just exposes more and more of just how corrupt the yew kay state actually is.
So at a guess, I’d say we wont have Sir Jeremy WiffWaff handing out civil service gongs this time, nor likes of Mario Pisani boasting about how great they are terrorising the populace. A few sweaty socks might be annoyed at paying them to be such a powerful anti Scottish democracy attack outfit but so what, BBC Scotland do it every minute of every day.
Brexit’s as big a deal for England as losing control of their Scotland region would have been but its a very crowded proud England island, with lots of brexiteers that want to stop immigration.
So what if likes Nissan pull out of Sunderland for Slovakia with Brexit. Even so, its a mad mad mad UKOK toryboy world.
Baby boxes:
Logically, it cannot be “something for nothing” when it saves lives.
Well Botham declaring England an island made me laugh, on the same day that Osborne got tore into Ingerland as being too wee and too poor and too fick to leave the EU. It just isn’t cwicket!
Once again us sweaties are being told that this is Ingerlands Referendum and we should just stay out of it and mind our own business and know our place.
@schrodinger,s cat 1.48pm
Aww! A wee bit bitter there because they didn’t take up your proposal.
Don’t be like Jim Sillars.
In fairness to the ERS, the purpose of their report seems to have been to compare a proportional voting system with the current AMS, highlighting how it would make a difference in favour of smaller parties. Which is what Reform is about.
But the Unionist press seized on it to push splinters into the SNP list vote. What Curtice and ERS could do is stand up and make it very clear that the report is being abused by the Unionist press, and that’s not what it said. Curtice did reply to Rev.
But considering the timing of the report, and the timing of this event of theirs on Wednesday night, I won’t be holding my breath for such “refreshing honesty”.
There is no doubt that there is a joint effort to split the SNP vote.
It is coming from all angles.
A friend texted me yesterday to say that one of her friends read the SH article, thinking them pro indy she asked if this was a good idea.
I gave them the info from the WoS article and they are now clear about it.
Today I bought the National for the first time in a while, I like Vonny Moyes but thought the tack she was taking with the NP act seemed to be incorrect.
Maybe the SNP need to be clearer about the act.
Carolyn Leckie is there with her give your second vote to others as the SNP have an ‘unassailable lead’ – clearly no-one knows that.
And a dig at ‘there will be no mention of indyref2 in the SNP’s manifesto’ – we know that.
Poor old Andy Murray’s being monstered again, he was asked if he thought he’d ever played anyone who was on drugs, he answered by saying, he didn’t know and he hoped not, but it was possible
Andy, in that simple statement just became a Scotch useless git again who can’t play and much worse, but the funny thing is it was started by Boris Becker defending Novak when Andy never accused anyone of anything
Seems it doesn’t matter how well you’re thought of by the British, the minute they don’t like something or you lose a match Andy, you’re A Scotch Git again
Said it before and I’ll say it again: SNP x 2. Can’t say it often enough.
@call me dave
I missed it due to a phone call and by the time I got back decided to watch later this evening. Ta for the summary, I always find these committees interesting, there is usually a few surprises or shocks!
Don’t forget the hustings tonight
https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/3859/live-from-6-45pm-hustings-with-nicola-sturgeon-cat-boyd-tommy-sheridan-zara-kitson-graham-hutchison-fariha-thomas-kevin-lewsey
Inverclyder says:
18 April, 2016 at 2:05 pm
schrodingers cat @ 1:48pm
“the councils control the ballot box and the polling stations”
They also drip feed the local yoon press with yoon propaganda along with SNP Bad stories for the masses not on the t’internet.
By changing the stories fed to the press the whole game changes and the local press will be shown up for who and what they are.”
The local Yoon Press to me is the weekly Northern Scot which takes a supine editorial line in relation to the incompetent Brit Nat coalition running Moray Council. It is nothing short of a miracle in my view that the SNP has the seat at Holyrood and Westmidden at all. I wont even get started on the P&Js so called Moray Edition.
The Northern Scot is owned by a group called the Scottish Provincial Press which through various companies is owned by a company in London and is the front essentially for an English Earl. That group control or owns another 11 titles in the North of Scotland and North East of Scotland.
It is part of the problem for any Indy campaign in that the majority of Scottish Councils are Yoon controlled. It is also another problem that there appears to be an almost blanket control by the Yoons of the so called Scottish Press and Media even down to local weeklies.
If it wasn’t for the births, deaths, marriages etc announcements then those elements of the deid tree Press would have zero sales!
While Scotland exists in the UK there is no democracy. so talk of having a greater democracy at Holyrood is just garbage. We exist in a WM system where only 17% of people in Scotland voted for the current government. In Holyrood 50% of Scots voted SNP so that is democracy, and its the only democracy Scots get in the UK.
We cannot play around with rainbow parliaments at Holyrood, while we are unrepresented in the big hoose. We need to leave the big hoose and then we can all vote for whoever we like, without fear of allowing our enemies to rule over our nation.
@Nana
You’ll enjoy the PM session too, just finished half an hour ago re:
Pensioners and the implications for their future. They contribute £68bn to the UK economy and other things I didn’t know.
I must say it’s very refreshing to see and hear a WM Scottish Affairs Committee coming up to North Britain.
Lots of good Scots voices all round and all remembered to switch on their microphones too … except one (three times) but he was from darn Sarf!
Hope that’s not too controversial 🙂
You’re being offered tickets to attend 2 football matches free of charge, with hotel accommodation and travelling expenses thrown in. You have a list of five matches to pick from. The two matches at the top of the list both feature Real Madrid as the main attraction. The others feature Auchinleck Talbot, Darvel Juniors, and the ex-employees of the now defunct Bata shoe factory in Cumnock. Somebody whispers in your ear that it would be a good idea to pick just one of the Real Madrid matches, so that you could feel good about boosting the gate receipts of one of the needy wee clubs. If you manage to exercise a reasonable amount of self-control, you will probably force a smile and tell them to sod off.
SNP x 2 is the only game in town.
Forgot to mention:
Voting: It’s a conspiracy!
http://derekbateman.scot/
I’m giving the Sunday Herald the benefit of the doubt for now.
That the misleading article was an attempt to pander to their ‘radical’ YES readers, rather than some cynical unionist attempt to derail the independence cause.
When it comes down to it – would we rather have one independence supporting newpaper or none at all?
Even if the SH isn’t comfortable with ‘Both Votes SNP’
I’ll be voting SNP twice because I think the SNP deserve a majority.
But I appreciate that some people do genuinely think SNP/Green could deliver more indy MSP’s, although that is far too much of a gamble for me, even if I wanted to see an SNP-Green coalition. (which I don’t)
I understand the Sunday Herald/National will want to cater to the full range of YES opinion and it will be a commercial decision to throw Greens/RISE a bone – at the risk of antagonizing the SNP mainstream. They have a balancing act to strike, and for my taste they swing too far to the hard left. Sometimes editions of the National have felt a bit too much ‘Socialist Worker’ at times. But I’ll be sticking with it for now and seeing how the next few weeks go.
If the SH & National go bust or merge back into the Herald, then that just takes us back to square one in the printed press.
Taking the view that something is better than nothing.
tommy shepherd 7:30
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2wSGjjHXfQ
in the 2015 GE, the snp did not seek a mandate for independence, nor did they win one.
in this 2016 HE, the snp is not seeking a mandate for a referendum, nor will they win one
the EU referendum may well be the material change nicola is looking for, but if the polls indicate the rise in support for YES, they are only an indication that the time is right. they do not, in themselves, constitute a democratic mandate.
Harvey is right though, there needs to be a democratic mandate to hold indyref2. This is what Nicola means by the vague statement in todays released manifesto “if the people of Scotland wish indyref2”
there are only 2 democratic means of gaining a mandate, a referendum or an election. Harvey has wisely opted for the referendum method, a referendum on having indyref2 option. not because this is the sensible option, it isnt, it just differentiates the greens from the snp enough. clever political posturing, nothing more.
this leaves the way open for the snp to choose the most sensible option and only remaining option for gaining a mandate for indyref2. an election.
2017 council elections
these elections will provide the snp with the mandate for indyref2. they will be the most politicised local elections ever. and they may also be the last election in the UK.
One other very important gain for us is control of all 32 councils. we can only run a scotland wide indyref2 if we control all 32 councils, it is the councils which are responsable for running all elections and referendums, polling agents, stations etc.
the unionists will oppose indyref2, Cameron will refuse to acknowledge the result even before it is in and he will encourage all unionists not to participate. If we dont control GCC, then GCC will be only to willing to do Camerons bidding.
winning all 32 councils in 2017 on an indyref2 ticket will be the real challenge we face, the snp will win a majority in may, the 2nd vote discussion is only an aside, not that important a nice to have.
O/T As a wee experiment I have applied for tickets to the BBC leaders debate, I told them I was an undecided who voted Tory at the last election (I feel dirty). Does this make me a bad person or just more likely to get selected as an audience member.
heedtracker says:
“So what if likes Nissan pull out of Sunderland for Slovakia with Brexit.”
…. Or, the continuing EU state, Scotland. 😎
Mike 3.10
Answer = Yes (But you wanted the tickets) LOL
Pity they didn’t brief Curtice properly then. If the purpose was to show how a group of parties with a sufficiently large share of the votes on a single issue such as independence could arrange to somehow vote tactically then he most definitely did not give any wholehearted endorsement to the idea. It’s so full of risk that it doesn’t bear thinking about.
Now it’s all a matter of how you think the way the actual report is being publicised and who you think is behind any misinterpretation as to whether you think ERS themselves are in effect lying about the contents to suit their own agenda or not.
The essential problem faced is that in Highlands and the Isles there are two constituencies that returned an LD the last time. It’s entirely possible that they might return at least one this time. It’s also entirely possible that if they didn’t then the chances are they’d not have enough list votes to secure one of the 7 additional member seats. Ordinarily FPTP is a problem. In this case less so.
The other possible problem is that you might theoretically get a majority on the constituency vote alone. As the results of the GE showed that’s not how it turned out. More seats means it’s even less likely this year.
Despite all the grumblings about list seats being also rans it’s useful to see exactly who’s actions in previous elections that benefited. That’d be Labour who chose not to limit themselves to only 12 SMPs in a given region such as Central. If I had my way parties would only get 12 candidates per region as a rule rather than voluntarily.
That simple change ensures that there is a variety of differing opinion at least. 96/129 might seem a bit much but it’s far better than the 56/59 or even 54/59 achieved at the GE as far as balance goes.
Nor do I get the whole idea that a party that actually had more than half of the votes might be held to ransom by the single MP of another party. How is that actually an improvement?
One change that might be worth considering is that at the last seat allocation it might be better giving the seat to the party that would give the narrowest spread of seat averages rather than simply the one with the largest. From memory there was a region where that would have given the seat to the Conservatives rather than SNP but it’s a risk I’d be willing to take.
Obviously a form of STV on the list either within parties or preferred candidate followed by party might be nice.
Flower of Scotland says:
Aww! A wee bit bitter there because they didn’t take up your proposal.
not bitter, just saddened that people cannot see what is coming down the road, in 4 weeks time after an eu out result, the local elections of 2017 will be the only focus of discussion and when people realise how difficult it will be, because of the electoral system, to win all 32 councils.
how bitter will you be then?
It’s not English people who are a bit crass. It’s ‘Englishness’.
Mike
you should have said labour but now thinking of voting tory, you would have been in there like a shot
@Iain More
Yes, and a lot of local titles in Scotland are now owned by newsquest of Herald “fame”.
@onwards
I know what you mean, the problem is I think the Herald is using its apparent pro-indy stance to feed wrong damaging information to those indy supporters who aren’t social media aware. So for instance it deliberately distored the ERS report and what Curtice says, and has done a good few times. Even in the heraleded PFI report if you’ll pardon the pun, it tried to put it on the same leve as the SNP’s NPD which it “casually mentioned in passing”.
I refute it below the line as do others, but that’s not getting to those who buy the printed version and don’t read btl. Then of course you have the junkers who spam below the line to dilute any sensible refutation.
I’ve discovered what RISE’s cry to all SNP voters is:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yr3dJxeT4oA
😆
Audience views on new Scottish media
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UiIp5VjpwPA&feature=youtu.be
pete wishart
i read wings every day…..
Nearly forgot, where did ERS actually examine a PR system or even propose one?
To be honest if the best strategy is to vote with your heart on the list because there’s no sure way to game the system then,
http://www.metrolyrics.com/rise-lyrics-public-image-limited.html
sums up why I’m voting SNP x 2 . The unfortunate inclusion of the word rise in it I’m more thinking of the line “I could be wrong, I could be right”.
As to RISE, let’s take their name apart,
Respect
George “twat in the hat” Galloway springs to mind. I’ve been put of from the start.
Independence
OK, I like that but when you’ve already got the Greens and SNP as well as allegedly depending on the way the wind is blowing some of Labour, why?
Socialism
Depends what you mean. Could be the SSP which brings to mind Tommy “man with a tan” Sheriden or not. Any way the only party that you might say isn’t even close to being socialist are the Conservatives, closely followed by Lib Dems and Labour. Again why?
Enviromentalism
Well that’ll the Greens, SNP and others too.
RISE, what’s the point other than perhaps taking votes from at least 4 other parties? Concentrate on ex-Labour voters who don’t want to vote SNP and you might get somewhere. Otherwise you just come across as having no certainty that you’re worth supporting on your policies but would like to potentially hold a gun to the SNPs head to get them implemented.
Thanks Rev for that, over the last month or so I’ve, thought about not buying the SH, it appears to be moving towards the unionist agenda, so now I won’t have a Sunday paper to read anymore.
Unless anyone can point to a fair and unbiased Sunday paper that I can purchase?
schrodingers cat says:
18 April, 2016 at 4:07 pm
“pete wishart
i read wings every day…..”
Hey schrodingers cat, if true then would like him to note he is my absolute favourite MP his style of presentation is second to none. Refreshing in his delivery and yet hits home every time .
It is MP’s of this quality that reaffirms I am correct in my allegiance to the SNP and I must add that I also admire many of the other SNP MP’s we have sitting in HOC.
However soft spot for Pete as he truly is one of a kind .
Though Salmond is just exceptional. What a man. A legend .
SNP X 2
I was giving some thought to voting SNP 1 Greens 2 or perhaps SNP 1 Rise 2 but since there has been so much pressure from the MSM not to vote SNPx2 I have decided to do just that.
That is not exactly true but it could be!
Contrary people who I’m sure there in many don’t like to be told what to do especially if they suspect they are being conned!
Onwards at 3.02
Much like my thinking. I well remember canvassing in the early sixties for the SNP and being told I was in danger of handing Labour seats to the Tories so I kind of understand where the enthusiasts in RISE are coming from.
It is very important that good relationships are protected till after this inconvenient election
Back to YES 6th May. We are kicking off with a Gaberlunzie concert that very night in Dunoon.
Ruby
if you live in the south or highland region, defo snp1&2
if you live in fife&mid then
snp1 greens/rise/solidarity2
get rennie out
@ Ian B: sorry, was out canvassing and just got in. It was the Jacobite chapter in Scotland’s Future History by S McHardy. You may find it interesting.
8)
Nana 4.03
Great vid though a bit puzzled why it gave Bella more prominence than Wings. Generally though quite encouraging.
Andy-B 4.19
“Unless anyone can point to a fair and unbiased Sunday paper that I can purchase?”
Is the Sunday Sport still around?
for those dishing the SH and the national
weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/04/18/anti-social-media/
Onwards @ 15:02 said:
Yes, I agree, and also with your general drift.
Better than nothing, as you say, but too often pandering to a small clique of bandwagon-jumpers instead of trying to win converts for indy. (Can’t see myself how the economics of that could ever work out.) Though it does have its compensations, not least Wee Ginger Dug (brilliant) and George Kerevan (insightful).
Somewhat amused at people talking about a ‘mandate’ to hold a referendum. Such tosh.
You need a democratic mandate to declare independence, you do not need a mandate to simply ASK people if they want independence. The referendum IS a mandate.
In no other country where a Government holds a referendum (and it happens a lot), do people say, oh, no, you can’t hold a referendum, unless you first hold a referendum or election asking if it is ok to hold a referendum.
It is unionist tosh to suggest you need a mandate for a referendum. As I said above, to declare independence which will be recognised, you need a mandate, e.g via a democratic referendum, but you most certainly do not need a mandate to hold a referendum – on anything.
schrodingers cat says:
18 April, 2016 at 4:28 pm
Ruby
if you live in the south or highland region, defo snp1&2
if you live in fife&mid then
snp1 greens/rise/solidarity2
get rennie out
Ruby replies
Willie Rennie is not my MSP I have Marco Biagi and Tommy Sherpherd as MP. Marco is standing down. Alison Dickie is the SNP candidate.
Any suggestions what voters in Edinburgh Central could do to keep Ruthie out?
“for those dishing the SH and the national
I think Paul makes a fair point. But I know what us cots are like. If we can find the hard way to do something, it will be found. Dissolving the 1707 Union and regaining our independence will be little different in that regard.
it should be given that it is snp 1 in every constituency, even if you are green/rise/solidarity, everywhere
the list vote is for your region, lothians, not edinburgh central
fife&mid region where i live is like a miniture scotland, trad labour in dunfermline, kirkcaldy in the south, the north more in common with the highlands.
lothian is more homogenous and less left wing so i cant see rise or solidarity making much headway
the second green msp candidate is andy wightman, a big turnout for greens on the list could see him replace one of the tory msp
Lothian got no snp list msp elected in 2011 and are unlikely to win any in may either
@Dr Jim
In ref to Andrew Murray having played anyone that he thought was on drugs,
Andy beat Federer and Djokovic in the 2012 Olympics,where there is a higher level of scrutiny and testing for EPO and Blood Doping,
Andy finds it hard to beat Federer and Djokovic when the people in charge of testing are the tennis authorities,
EPO and Blood Doping do not increase inherent skill,they give you the ability to train for longer to recover quicker and help increase power in the muscles,
cycling,football ,tennis,athletics,if your not doping you are generally not winning,
and the money in sport makes it hard to say no.
So , if England is an island full of proud Englishfolk , that means that Scotland is an island(s) and we are freeeee!
I never thought I’d back Boris and Brexit but I am sorely tempted.
Anybody got a fleet of diggers so that we can make Mr Bothams statement true – consulting those in the north of England first ,just in case they want the trench to be far further south.
You need a democratic mandate to declare independence, you do not need a mandate to simply ASK people if they want independence. The referendum IS a mandate.
a result in a referendum is a mandate for independence….i thought that was obvious
but to do anything, when in government, the mandate comes from your manifesto, eg introduce tuition fees(libdems didnt have a mandate) or indeed to hold a referendum, the eu ref was in the tory manifesto and because they won the 2015 ge, they have a mandate to hold one
the snp ran the 2011 election with a promise to hold indyref1. they won and had a mandate to do so, so they did
rise have a indyref2 in their manifesto and if they win(unlikely) they will have a mandate to hold one in the next 5 years.
the snp have no commitment for indyref2 in their manifesto published today, but retain the right to hold one if they get a mandate from the people. how this is to be decided is not clear, but democratic mandates come from only two processes, referendum or elections.
if it is an eu out and/or the polls show a large increase in support for indy, then the snp will start planning for indyref2. the mandate to hold it will come at the council elections in 2017, indeed, until we control all 32 councils, we cant hold indyref2 anyway.
hope this keeps you amused Robert Louis, would hate for you to repeat any tosh
Nana @ 4:03
Thanks Nana have shared 🙂
Traditional Media…..
SNP Policy Responsible for Freak Accident.
Not as you may think a mishap at a circus, but any accident remotely out of the ordinary.
Evil Cybernats clash with rivals in their bid for a One Party State.
You might be forgiven for believing that Independence supporters are people with twelve fingers or a single eye in the middle of their forehead and come complete with pitchforks/burning sticks, intent on giving any one who disagrees with them the malky.
SNP Building Maintenance failures cause Towering Inferno.
A chip pan fire at any council property, where the kitchen is on the first floor.
SNP Minister for Transport at fault for traffic standstill during White Out/White Hell.
Any small flurry of snow, that causes drivers to slow down
These (entirely made up) types of SNP BAAD headlines are why I do not buy any newspapers watch or listen to the BBC.
New Media Rocks 😉
Ruby says:
Any suggestions what voters in Edinburgh Central could do to keep Ruthie out?
ruthie and dugdale are both 1st on the list for the blue and red tories, sorry ruby, they are 100% certain to be elected
Dave McEwan Hill says:
18 April, 2016 at 4:24 pm
Onwards at 3.02
Much like my thinking. I well remember canvassing in the early sixties for the SNP and being told I was in danger of handing Labour seats to the Tories so I kind of understand where the enthusiasts in RISE are coming from.
——–
Problem is that voting SNP back then actually did hand some seats to the Tories. Labour was often seen as the lesser of two evils.
It took the SNP decades to break through.
That’s the problem right now for the smaller parties, although to a lesser extent with PR on the regional list.
Danger is with 3 very similar smaller parties, they could split 10-15% of the vote 3 ways – with none of them gaining a seat. If the SNP falls short in the constituencies, they could also fall short on the list due to wasted tactical votes.
It must be frustrating for their activists, but the danger is far bigger than the Tories getting a seat instead of Labour. The danger is that a pro-indy majority isn’t achieved, and all momentum is lost.
That’s why the Curtice report is full of disclaimers such as:
“of course, this is not a strategy without risks.”
I hope supporters of the smaller parties understand why many SNP members and supporters are unwilling to take these risks, even if they wanted to see more pro-indy MSP’s in general.
If Greens/RISE/solidarity end up with very few seats, it would be a shame if there is a backlash against the SNP, or boycotts of a future referendum campaign or anything like that. I hope they understand that most SNP voters see the SNP as the most realistic path to get a second referendum in the first place, and they just don’t want to gamble with that.
schrodingers cat says:
18 April, 2016 at 5:14 pm
it should be given that it is snp 1 in every constituency, even if you are green/rise/solidarity, everywhere
the list vote is for your region, lothians, not edinburgh central
Ruby replies
Just aswell I’ve got you to keep me informed!
I wonder what % of voters find the whole thing confusing.
I think I might do a bit of a survey to find out!
Just going to leave these past Holyrood results here:
1999 SNP LAB CON LIB
Const 672,757 908,392 364,225 331,379
List 638,644 786,818 359,109 225,774
Const % 28.7% 38.8% 15.5% 14.1%
List % 27.3% 33.6% 15.3% 12.4%
SEATS 35 56 18 17
2003 SNP LAB CON LIB
Const 449,476 659,879 312,598 286,150
List 399,659 561,379 296,929 225,774
Const % 23.8% 34.6% 16.6% 15.3%
List % 20.9% 29.3% 15.5% 11.8%
SEATS 27 50 18 17
2007 SNP LAB CON LIB
Const 664,227 648,374 334,743 326,232
List 633,401 595,415 284,005 230,671
Const % 32.9% 32.2% 16.6% 16.2%
List % 31.0% 29.2% 13.9% 11.3%
SEATS 47 46 17 16
2011 SNP LAB CON LIB
Const 902,915 630,461 276,652 157,714
List 876,421 523,559 103,472 103,472
Const % 45.4% 31.7% 13.9% 7.9%
List % 44.0% 26.3% 12.4% 5.2%
SEATS 69 37 15 5
Nothing is certain and turnout will decide all bets.
We must vote SNP in both the constituency & the list ballot papers, to ensure an SNP majority government.
Otherwise we risk a Yoon coalition government of Labour, Tories & Libdems. The MSM have been very quiet about a possible Yoon Coalition Government. I wonder why?
Imagine being ruled by a triumvirate of Dugdale, Davidson & Rennie…
God help us all.
@Scot Finlayson
My point was Scot, Andy never said Yea or Nay he said I don’t know, and the Media made the rest up to make it seem like he’d said Yea
Result Andy stopped being British again at the drop of a hat
and became Scotch
It’s the media doing the “Do you deny” and if you don’t, you confirmed, same the other way round
schrodingers cat says:
18 April, 2016 at 5:31 pm
Ruby says:
Any suggestions what voters in Edinburgh Central could do to keep Ruthie out?
ruthie and dugdale are both 1st on the list for the blue and red tories, sorry ruby, they are 100% certain to be elected
Ruby replies
That explains why ‘The Ruth Davidson Party’ isn’t bothering to campaign in Central Ediburgh.
What Sarah Boyack is she on the assited places list?
SC
Remember Margo Macdonald’s votes will be up for grabs this time. She had one hell of a following in Edinburgh which hopefully will give the SNP their votes.
This time I will be voting SNP , SNP and not SNP, Independent.
Ruby replies
I wonder what % of voters find the whole thing confusing.
well, the leader of ukip, coburn certainly doesnt understand the system
schrodinger,s cat@3.33pm
No point in bitterness, especially as I’ve been campaigning for Scottish Independence for 50 years now. I just get out in N E Fife, I think that you live there too, and trudge the streets and work in the SNP hub just like the other campaigners.
It was never going to happen quickly. Unlike some, I’ve just had one goal in mind and that’s Indy and the SNP are the only party capable of delivering it.
I will work just as hard next year to help elect SNP Councillors.
I’ve always been in it for the long haul. So I’ll say it again #BothVotesSNP
sarah boyack is 3rd on labour list so, baring a collapse of labour support on the list, she is very likely to get elected, unfortunately
OT
Great article by David Torrance in the Herald. I think it’s one of his best, possibly the best, and perhaps why he was given room in Newsnet during Indy Ref 1 in the hope of getting something like it. I don’t agree with all, but with a surprising amount of it.
http://archive.is/0UI1i
Coalition of Davidson, Dugdale & Rennie? This could be the grand plan from LONDINIUM & HMG for Holyrood. Think this might just drive the wedge home and bring forward independence at the gallop.
Remember the old saying, “be careful what you wish for, because you might just get it” the yoons MSM & EBC are playing a very dangerous game with very high stakes if this is their plan.
That explains why ‘The Ruth Davidson Party’ isn’t bothering to campaign in Central Edinburgh.
She’s got the whole BBC led freak out media to do the campaigning for her, also might explain it.
Its part of yoon culture NO voters embraced, maybe. Tory BBC led media grovellers, royals worshipping, endless war fetishism, giant union jacks everywhere, Eton, Harrow, Oxbridge only way to teamGB greatness, how much is my house worth now thrills, England won 1966 World cup and guess what’s waiting for us all this summer of England wins everything?
If they do Brexit, would the EU really give a shit?
A reminder for hustings event later
http://livestream.com/IndependenceLive/HustingsGlasgow
fos
im not bitter, indeed a majority snp government is what is required, no doubt about it
as to replacing some of the unionists on the list as well, this is a nice to have but it doesnt really change much. there are many who believe this is too risky, which is a perfectly valid and sensible position, but i believe in some regions that it is a calculated risk worth taking. differences of opinions like these should not lead to snp and other indy supporting groups falling out, but they have. as soon as this election is over, i hope and expect the differences to disappear.
i have been an snp supporters for longer than I care to remember also FOS, but while the SNP is the only route to indyref2,
it is the YES supporting groups who will deliver independence. If you remember, during the referendum the SNP was the only group, “who should not be named” 🙂 when indyref2 is announced, perhaps it should rebrand itself as the Voldemort party 🙂
cat – I’ve thought quite a bit about this, and you and I arguing over the likes of Mid Scotland and Fife helps that.
I look at it this way, there’s going to be a few disappointed candidates whatever way the election works out. So if say Cat Boyd doesn’t get elected, is she going to take her ball and go off in a huff? And if she does, aren’t there a lot more balls out there to play with? Indy isn’t about individuals, it’s about all individuals. On the other side there could be a few fuming SNP candidates displaced as they might see it, by Greens or RISE. Well, let them fume, they then either carry on supporting YES – or they don’t.
And if any of these don’t, perhaps they weren’t really that fussed about Indy in the first place, but saw it as a means to their end. Well, nothing wrong with that either, it just didn’t work this time, but the bus to Indy carries on, with or without them.
All aboard what’s coming aboard!
@Tinto Chiel –
Will certainly look for that. Cheers!
Imagine two of your kids would just be old enough to vote in the second Scottish Independence referendum, and imagine you didn’t give both your votes to the SNP and they didn’t get a majority.
How shit would you feel on Friday morning.
@Dr Jim
I’m sure Andy Murray tweeted on Referendum Day ” let’s do this Scotland”
Make of that what you will, but I took it to mean that he was supporting Indy.
schrodingers cat says:
18 April, 2016 at 4:50 pm
for those dishing the SH and the national
weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/04/18/anti-social-media/
Thanks for that. I agree with the dug. Not happy at all about the Curtice article, but giving them the benefit of the doubt for now.
yesindyref2 says:
18 April, 2016 at 5:59 pm
OT
Great article by David Torrance in the Herald. I think it’s one of his best, possibly the best
Its just more yoontastic reasons to boost RISE and the Greens
“Critical voices saying that the SNP version of independence is too conservative, meanwhile, are on the rise, while Professor John Curtice has suggested (unhelpfully from the SNP’s point of view) that the best way for voters to maximise the number of pro-independence MSPs in this election is to use the regional list vote to support RISE or the Scottish Greens. ”
His “critical voices” are only be heard so long and loud because UKOK campers and legions of attack propagandists like Torrance think they can be used to break up the SNP.
I have never seen so much print and broadcast time pouring out of the UK media, for what are tiny little groups no bigger than sport clubs, especially RISE in the National.
I “liked” the National in Facebook and every second story they pop in to their timeline is RISE and the lassie that runs it.
Useful idiots is too harsh but even so…
@Onwards
Well, the Sunday Herald was told in no uncertain terms by a lot of people what they – we – thought of it, so they’ve got the next 2 weeks for us to see what the colour of their money is.
@Indyref2 the Torrance article gets the Curtice ‘suggestion’ wrong and this is most likely deliberate. There’s a concerted effort from many sides now to try to split the List vote.
@IB: Oaks!
😀
What’s The Rev up to? It’s too quiet…..
Beware UKOKia!
@Heed
True, but his comments about Sturgeon were OK. He showed his customary dislike of Salmond but ironically, by putting Salmond down he builds Sturgeon up, as he has to contrast the style.
Personally I think Salmond was absolutely right for Indy ref 1, and Sturgeon is absolutely the best person for Indy Ref 2. They’re going to be different campaigns, and the need to be. Indy Ref 1 was the Awakening, Indy Ref 2 is Hello Scotland, my old friend, I’ve come to talk with you again.
Because a vision softly in-creeping, left its seeds while you were all sleeping. And the vision, that was planted in your brains, still remains, within the sound, of Independence.
(probably needs a bit of work!)
@CmonIndy
Perhaps, but to do so he had to put together a good piece on what’s needed for and in Indy Ref 2.
He’ll be a YES then!
Scotland 2016 tonight – ‘how to work the list vote’ (!!!) In other words – don’t ‘waste’ your 2nd vote on the SNP.
Are we beginning to see a pattern here folks?
Live now on Independence Live Hustings from Glasgow Southside with Nicola:)
http://livestream.com/IndependenceLive/HustingsGlasgow
yesindyref2 says:
18 April, 2016 at 6:51 pm
@Heed
True, but his comments about Sturgeon were OK.
Its a toryboy Britnat world and that dudes as far right Britnat as they get. Scotland wants devo-max, that’s why they lied liked the historic tory liars they are with The Vow. So what next for toryboys like Torrance? more fraud.
Project Fear and The Vow shyste made sure Scotland’s still a region of England but its pretty spectacular watching BBC Project Fearing the living shit out of England now. They better win. I wouldn’t like to make enemies of likes of BOJO and Farage on the war path.
They even have Galloway, the carpet baggers carpet bagger.
Notice how that git’s not going round shouting “nonsense on stilts” at England.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bR6KBfZoIWU
@Rev
Just saw on twitter about 40% full of bags for life.
Hint: if they’re in cardboard boxes DO NOT put them in a sunny window two deep right against the windows. Sun and heat expand the boxes and break your windows.
🙁
https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/local/fife/120702/snp-accuse-labour-misleading-fife-voters/
Surely not. Surely SLab would never go around lying at Scottish voters like this.
Ruthie screams foul!
https://archive.is/hP9MH
Liz Rannoch
Which could do the opposite of what they want. People are not as daft as they think they are.
Just saw SNP Party Political Broadcast and Nicola spelling out the need to vote SNP twice.
My wishes come true! Rest of the broadcast crap as usual.
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2016/04/18/anti-social-media/
The defence of the National. Fair enough. But real actual journalism that does look at the clearly horrendous non ERS is to be had only on WoS.
That’s your headline WGD:D
i think many of the journalists and supporters of other indy parties have missed the point
politics got shelved as soon as indyref1 was called, that is why the snp was a term you never saw or heard during the ref.
we lost the ref but the yes campaign never ended, it just switched to the snp as the best means of continuing the referendum campaign.
sure, people in the yes campaign had differences of opinion, but were united in a common goal so put them aside for the duration
in any normal election, the greens or the ssp criticising policies of the snp would be seen as fairly normal. but this isnt a normal election, we are still in the referendum campaign, the snp are meerly holding the standard at the moment. Even fairly innocent articles by journalists in the SH or by Rise, criticising eg, the named person policy, elicit huge storms of protest all across social media, not because they are seen as criticism of the SNP but because they are seen as direct attacks on the indyref campaign.
Ill be glad when this election is over, we will have 3 weeks to draw breath and watch bbc london rip each other to bits. we can then hold our breaths while the result is announced and our future is decided by someone else.
Make of that what you will, but I took it to mean that he was supporting Indy.
Flower of Scotland
The Nawbags certainly did – he got pelters in the Daily Heil and the like for the Tweet
Yesindyref2@6:28pm
Anyone who goes off in a huff will be left behind.
I get the impression that a number of RISE/Green candidates are more concerned about winning themselves a cushy number at Holyrood than furthering the cause for independence. There is no easy route to success for these movements. It has to be done the hard way through winning hearts and minds and building up from the roots – a few more councillors in 2017 would be a good start.
yesindyref2 says:
18 April, 2016 at 6:37 pm
@Onwards
Well, the Sunday Herald was told in no uncertain terms by a lot of people what they – we – thought of it, so they’ve got the next 2 weeks for us to see what the colour of their money is.
—-
Yeah, hoping for better.
Just going by the polls, we see the SNP at around 50% support and the 3 minor indy parties at around 8% combined.
You would think that would be reflected in coverage.
@call me dave
Yeah. Got to keep an eye on these unionists, there’s one was claiming that support for Indy is falling, and the last two polls show YES at 40% and 41%. Deceitful, as always with unionist posters and columnists, that is with don’t knows and refused. Excluding the don’t knows and refused, the last 16 polls show:
YES: 55, 53, 47, 49, 48, 49, 49, 47, 46, 52, 47, 47, 46, 48, 46, 47
NO.: 45, 47, 53, 51, 52, 51, 51, 53, 54, 48, 53, 53, 54, 52, 54, 53
for an average of YES 48.5%, NO 51.5%
So will Scotland 2016 count as another non-party campaign if it talks about how to use your list vote? If it puts in one party domination stuff.
That RISE lassie at the hustings is completely terrible, over reacting about the OAF act.
On a good note that friend passed on the info from WoS about the misrepresentation on the SH and both her friends are now confirmed SNP x2
Well, it looks like a few of you have calmed down a bit and stopped attacking me for no reason whatsoever (he said, you said, I said he was a blah, blah, blah).
That’s good. Because, as it happens, I have something important to say, and this is the time and place to say it.
Clearly nobody here could come up with one good reason to listen to a word I say. I probably couldn’t myself. Have I ever been more right?
But this week, as you all know, is a big one for our movement; we have the manifesto launch on Wednesday and I suspect it’s going to be one of those “where were you when you heard the news?” moments.
I believe the manifesto will include something that nobody expected, a firm and clear commitment to another referendum that hinges on a quite unexpectedly simple trigger of sorts; an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament.
If Thatcher was made of iron, Sturgeon is composed of solid, cold, steel.
There’s been a lot of talk about Sturgeon and what her strategy is. I’ve heard people on here talk about her lack of teeth and timidity. Frankly, I’m far too simple an animal to even attempt that question.
But I do know this; she isn’t the calculating careerist that some would have you believe she is. Sturgeon is one of the most principled and resolute politicians that western democracy has ever delivered.
Sturgeon’s gambit of steel, then, will hinge on something that many of us have all too casually overlooked — democracy. If there’s a clear commitment in the SNP manifesto to another referendum and enough people vote for that, nobody on this planet has any authority whatsoever to object or stand in the way.
Democracy really is that simple and we should never lose sight of that or take it for granted. It’s a beautiful thing.
By Thursday those who you now regard as political opponents will be by your side under the same banner, urging;
SNP x 2
Come on Scotland, Get intae them!
That Indy Live hustings is terrible!
Breaking Bad is much better!
OK need some advice from you clever wingers.I will now be working in South West England on polling day
How can I get the better half to vote for me proxy etc
This is important as I am resident in fluffys Mk2 constituency and we need every vote in border region for Joan McAlpine
“Late is the hour in which this conjurer chooses to appear. Lathspell I name him. Ill news is an ill guest.”
Neo-think it’s been leaked to the press already. Doesn’t appear to be any commitment to a second indyref.
@ garles here – http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/register-to-vote/apply-to-vote-by-proxy
Hi schrodingers cat.
You typed,
“Even fairly innocent articles by journalists in the SH or by Rise, criticising eg, the named person policy, elicit huge storms of protest all across social media, not because they are seen as criticism of the SNP but because they are seen as direct attacks on the indyref campaign.”
I think you’ve hit the nail on the head!
————————————————
Hi yesindyref2.
Liked your PS reference.
“And the sign said “The words of the prophets
Are written on subway walls
And tenement halls
And shouted in the cause of indy””
8=)
Fred,
“Vonny Moyes finds herself lining up with Ruth Davidson in an attack on the SNP over “Named Persons,” in todays National.”
No, surely not in the “independence supporting “The National”?
“I’ve heard people on here talk about her lack of teeth and timidity.”
Should have gone to Specsavers.
liz,
“Carolyn Leckie is there with her give your second vote to others as the SNP have an ‘unassailable lead’ – clearly no-one knows that.
And a dig at ‘there will be no mention of indyref2 in the SNP’s manifesto’ – we know that.”
No, surely not in the “independence supporting “The National” which many posters here couldn’t live without?
Paula Rose
Thanks for the link
anybody who thinks NP should be dropped, should pay heed to whats going on at the High Court in Livingston this week.
A very similar case was heard in England last week.
All this splitting the vote from BUM is starting to annoy me a bit. This obviously works both ways, in other words whilst SNP supporters get pissed off with RISE, Solidarity, Greens and the left in general. Surely they too get pissed off with the SNP.
Bear with me, what if this BUM onslaught has nothing to do with this particular election? You know, like the establishment might just be playing their best hand now based on what they believe may happen in the future.
A future where SNP in 2016 is almost certain to win a majority in less than three weeks time and they already know that? Governments also conduct polls that we will never be privy to.
Maybe the goal is that the real damage will be done not now in this election but by producing a split between the left and SNP before any possible future referendum.
If I was one of them, I guess that’s a tactic I’d suggest.
The support for Independence in Oct 2012 just prior to the Edinburgh agreement was 34% Yes and 66% for No. So sure we closed a gap, we managed to bring 10% of “their” side over to our side.
How was that possible? I truly do believe that this was mostly due to the broader Yes campaign bringing so many ex-Labour voters on board and the likes of RIC getting 10’s of thousands of our voters to register and vote for the first time. I don’t think it is coincidence that the SNP rise has resulted in a corresponding fall in Labour support.
It is now clear that support for Independence is highest in the less affluent areas and lowest in the most affluent. We know the reason for that.
Let’s not judge motives based on BUM reports, at best they are a wind up and at worst totally cynical in order to destroy any future prospect of cooperation between the different parties during a second Referendum campaign.
I can only suggest that you use your votes as you best believe will meet your goals, don’t though let the BUM divide us all now before another Independence referendum is even on the table. Creating division is their specialty and it is something that can be banked and saved for the future.
I suspect that is their long term goal, not the Holyrood elections. Disruption for the next campaign whenever that may be has already started. We should be wise to that.
Try not to be wound up and let’s just get on with the job in hand.
@ garles says:
Contact your local electoral registration officer ASAP. Proxy votes can be obtained after the closing date of 19th April on gronds of employment or health reasons.
O/T I’m just listening to the second ‘Norway BAD’ program on Radio 4 Ive heard in just a couple of weeks. The first one was about how terrible it was to have full transparency of tax returns, this one is about how their child protection laws are too rigorous.
The message I take from this is, how blessed we are here in the glorious UK to have a culture of privacy to allow us to evade tax, and to slap our children about in the privacy of our own homes.
@garles
You only need to download and fill in this form if you are “working away from home”. Then send it to your local council Election returning officer, their address I can’t help you with.
http://www.aboutmyvote.co.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/177403/FORMS-Employment-Proxy-MAY16.pdf
Don’t forget to vote now 🙂
lathspell is right conan
I believe the manifesto will include something that nobody expected, a firm and clear commitment to another referendum that hinges on a quite unexpectedly simple trigger of sorts; an absolute majority in the Scottish Parliament.
i dare say you dont get scottish news down in east bumfuck englandshire but FYI, the snp manifesto was releast today and what everyone expected, bar you, there is no firm commitment to indyref2 if they gain a majority in may.
oh and btw, did i forget to tell you today….etc
Thepnr
There may well be a bit divide and conquer in the recent drive to push a wedge between SNP voters and the smaller pro-independence parties. None of these parties are standing constituency MSPs – it is a clear field. We are happy to court their vote on the constituency vote. We should give them space to court their own vote on the list. If they also win wavering Labour or Liberal supporters that find the SNP a step too far then that is absolutely fine by me.
We must make the mathematical case for SNP x2 but we should do so with a degree of respect. The Greens and Rise are not a 5th column no matter how much the MSM would like to use them as one. If they get their message across to disgruntled soft Unionists then it may well backfire in the faces of those meddling in these affairs.
Thanks to all who posted the livestream link to the hustings debate so many commenting it was hard to follow the comments it was pretty tame and orderly i dont know if i would be allowed into one for very long if a Tory-Lib/dem or Labour candidate was on the platform .Steam-Ears-coming out affliction + tourette’s syndrome.
O/T
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeDkcfyWcMU
Do we need reminding why we have the D’Hondt system, these fuckers engineer policies far in the future & cause devision to ensure a continuance for themselves.
SNP 1&2
“And we will also ensure that Scotland’s future as a nation is firmly in the hands of the people of Scotland.
“We believe passionately that independence offers the best future for Scotland. However, we know Scotland will only become independent when a majority of people in Scotland choose that future in a democratic referendum – it will not happen just because the SNP wants it to, or because there is an SNP government.
“At the same time if there is a clear demand for a referendum no politician has the right to stand in the way of the people of Scotland to choose their own future.
“We believe that the Scottish Parliament should have the right to hold another referendum if there is clear and sustained evidence that independence has become the preferred option of a majority of the Scottish people – or if there is a significant and material change in the circumstances that prevailed in 2014, such as Scotland being taken out of the EU against our will.
“In the next parliament, we will work hard to persuade a majority of the Scottish people that being an independent country is the best option for our country. We will listen to the concerns of people who voted No in 2014 and seek to address them. The case we make will be relevant to the complex world we live in today.
“And that case will reflect the Scotland we will work to achieve in this parliament.”
Nicola Sturgeon, 17th April, 2016, http://www.snp.org/putting_people_in_the_driving_seat_for_scotland_s_future
No sign that there will be a commitment to a referendum in the manifesto, given an SNP majority.
Indyref2 said:
Because a vision softly in-creeping, left its seeds while you were all sleeping. And the vision, that was planted in your brains, still remains, within the sound, of Independence.
(probably needs a bit of work!)
Tried it out for you on the guitar and found this:
?
Because the vision you’ll be reaping,
from the seeds while you were sleeping.
Still remains.
It’s called the sound of freedom. ?
I guess I’m still happy after watching the Govanhill husting..! 😉
Ah see ye’ve been buying the National again Rock! 🙂
The Greens and Rise are not a 5th column no matter how much the MSM would like to use them as one. If they get their message across to disgruntled soft Unionists then it may well backfire in the faces of those meddling in these affairs.
It may but look at the stats in wiki for RISE, then compare and contrast the massive UKOK media boost for RISE going on.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RISE_%E2%80%93_Scotland%27s_Left_Alliance
Scottish Left Project was launched online in October 2014 as a “grassroots forum for left-wing ideas and talent”.[5] Its website contained an “opening statement” signed by 22 activists, which others on the left were encouraged to sign.
22 activists 2014.
“…while Allan Grogan and Liam McLaughlan—who became prominent over the course of the referendum campaign—were among 38 members who signed an open letter arguing against the move, stating that there “are no shortcuts to building a strong left-wing opposition”
38 members 2015.
My poker club’s got more members.
If its a coalition Scots.gov May 6, we’re all up shits creek.
cat – yes, I did notice something in one posting which made me think he / she / it knew little about Scotland.
Thepnr,
“It is now clear that support for Independence is highest in the less affluent areas and lowest in the most affluent. We know the reason for that.”
Why is it lowest in the most affluent?
Could it be that the middle classes and the English live in the most affluent areas?
What are those “Business for Scotland” and “Lawyers for Yes” types who live in those areas doing about it?
We really need to embrace those Tories.
@ronnie anderson
Exactly Ronnie
Two weeks on Thursday will just be another day in the office for them even if the SNP get an unprecedented victory.
Nah, dissnae matter. We still goat yeh hahaha.
Till the next time Ronnie, that’s we Independence supporters must stick together, it’s to beat these bastards.
Rock says:
18 April, 2016 at 9:45 pm
Thepnr,
“It is now clear that support for Independence is highest in the less affluent areas and lowest in the most affluent. We know the reason for that.”
Why is it lowest in the most affluent?
Why is there only 1 proud Scot but yoon MP from each yoon party in Westminster now?
The “leak” is part of the plan. You’ll see.
In Sturgeon we trust.
heed
im not sure how much we can read in to voting figures for the smaller parties
years ago, trying to convince people that the snp was the party wasnt difficult, they agreed completely with everything i said but they still voted labour tactically to get the tories out.
in the holyrood elections, looking at the greens support in regions, a lot more voted greens in the list but snp in the constituencies,
indeed, in the 2015, only 800 voted ssp/rise…ric count far more members than that, but i spent many hours here trying to convincing those natural ssp supporters to vote snp, many in the general public probably came to the same conclusion
once scotland is independent i predict that the first election afterwards will produce some very different results
people have always voted tactically and this masks the true support in the population for the minor parties
the snps victory in 2007 started an avalanch of change, not because people changed allegiance, although many did, but because they were now seen as a real and viable option.
i must admit, i liked allan grogan and rise is poorer for his absence
Neo mate, will you give it a break man, your fooling no one.
Over the past 18 months or so, I’ve found that SNP supporters tend to refer to a lady called “Nicola”. I’ve seen umbrellas, badges and stickers saying “I’m with Nicola”. I have an “I’m with Nicola” badge on my jacket.
Who is this “Sturgeon” person, who, it appears, is not the “Nicola” that SNP supporters are right behind?
The mask slips…
@Rock
I thought that was clear Rock, that’s where the Tories live, those that will never vote Yes. The main difference is in the less affluent areas where in Scotland in the past almost all you would have expected to vote Labour.
Labours vote hasn’t crumbled it has collapsed in what once was considered their heartland. There is no longer a heartland for Labour and I am certain that their vote will continue to fall away.
Fuck the Tories Rock, they will not be for turning, just like Maggie. Our goal is the last Labour voter standing then Scotland WILL be Independent.
I’d settle for half those still standing. I hope you agree lol.
If its a coalition Scots.gov May 6, we’re all up shits creek.
I’m not agin SNP x2, I was just making a plea that we don’t tilt at windmills and get caught up other peoples’ factionalism. We have bigger fish to fry.
Yes the media is pushing Rise (more so than the Greens really) but the media game is obvious.
brian
its all part o the plan……a cunning cunning plan
Break time – chill out. Put down you wrath, hammer and teeth: http://wp.me/p4fd9j-6oI
@BDTT
In fairness I just about always refer to politicians of any party by their second name, unless it needs the first as well if there’s two or more of the same name, like Davidson. Though right enough there’s just the one now!
Hi schrodingers cat.
Any turnips involved in that cunning plan?
the snps victory in 2007 started an avalanch of change, not because people changed allegiance, although many did, but because they were now seen as a real and viable option.
It sure did but the fact is SC, a few far left activists in Scotland are being boosted to high heaven by the extremely right wing UKOK meeja delights and ofcourse our hideous BBC.
Its barking mad.
Red and blue tories are are up to some really dirty trick stuff too.
Its a clusterfuck of chancers and clearly seriously creepy outfits like ERS are happy to get UKOK stuck in too.
I’m not agin SNP x2, I was just making a plea that we don’t tilt at windmills and get caught up other peoples’ factionalism. We have bigger fish to fry.
Me neither.
Its just fascinating watching this system getting shat on by our imperial masters.
If Scotland was independent, it would be a great electoral process. As we can see from this one WoS blog alone, its being twisted and exploited by same UKOK crew that Project Feared the life out of Scots 2014. With the very willing aid of a tiny minority “party.”
To cap it all, even Prof Poultice nonchalantly explains that the Scottish electorate doesn’t know how it works. How convenient.
Is Scotland 2016 about to advocate splitting votes…?
Better feckin not be.
Worth a listen to, from the Lord that cooked up Scotland’s election but he doesnt like it and he says its got to be changed in the future, because it meant Scotland voting SNP in to Holyrood.
Dark days for democracy, if they can just get a coalition going May 6. The ERS no doubt considering anything that can stop us voting SNP is reform.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BeDkcfyWcMU
Shocked to note Prof Curtice give a warning that NOT voting SNP x2 could in fact deny a majority SNP gov !!
Payback for recent misrepresentation perhaps ?
Away for a lie down….
Anent the execution of Dr Archie Cameron who returned to Scotland thinking that the post-Culloden amnesty would ensure his safety, he was trying to track down the French gold entrusted to Cluny MacPherson who remained in Badenoch for ten years after Culloden, James Wolfe (later General Wolfe) had a cunning plan to exterminate the MacPherson clan entirely in 1752. “Can you believe I was so bloody,” he later wrote when MacPherson clansmen fought under him in Canada.
Badenoch was devastated & heavily garrisoned but the tacksmen appeared to be well off & some paying their rents to the duke of Gordon partly in Louis D’Ors. Nobody gave Cluny away & one MacPherson tacksman was hanged by the women after church as a spy.
What happened to the money? a lame cow in modern times at Loch Arkaig was found to have a Louis D’Ors stuck in its hoof. 🙂
http://www.lochiel.net/archives/arch189.html
heed
the activists are
but i was talking about the voters
@Thepnr says:
“Maybe the goal is that the real damage will be done not now in this election but by producing a split between the left and SNP before any possible future referendum.
If I was one of them, I guess that’s a tactic I’d suggest.”
——–
There is probably some truth in that.
The media is only too happy to give a voice to those attacking the SNP on the left. For short and long term damage.
We have to accept that the smaller parties are going to ask for SNP regional votes, whether SNP supporters like it or not.
And that the unionist press will play that tactic up, hoping to split the vote and damage the SNP.
I would like to think any future independence referendum sees all differences put aside again, and the broadest YES campaign imaginable. From the left, right and centre.
But right now, the SNP has to campaign all out for #BothVotesSNP.
To take a majority of constituency seats for granted would be seen as total arrogance. They have to fight for every single vote.
I think after the election the biggest potential grievance will be between RISE and Solidarity. They should have put differences aside before competing for the same slice of the vote. Going by the current polls, it doesn’t look like any of them will be winning a seat.
@geeo
Eh?
Wouldn’t surprise me, Curtice is an academic and anyone who misrepresents an academic is asking for cold, chilly and very permanent execution.
Any link / where / when?
@schrodingers cat
Allan Grogan is the reason I became a supporter of Independence. It was the time that I got my head out of the sand and he was that one that did it for me.
If he had chosen to stand for the SNP in NE Scot. I would have voted for him on the list, he hasn’t, so my mind is made up for this region SNP x 2.
In 2011 despite winning all the constituency seats in NE Scot the SNP still won a list seat because their regional vote was 52%, I expect the same thing will happen now.
I fully understand your position in NS & Fife, a chance of getting rid of Wee Wullie Rennie would do it for me. I’d go Green there too with the regional vote. Beat them anyway you can.
Absolutely definitely, Highlands and the South SNP x 2.
I do have a suspicion that the polls of 1000 or so are far too widespread to pick up the local variations. For that reason it wouldn’t surprise me in the slightest to see a “small left wing party” pick up a seat in Glasgow.
I hasten to add that the Sir Thomas Sheridan who had a finger in this missing largese might not indeed be any relation tae Oor Tommy! 🙂
@Onwards
Just saw your post after I’d posted. Anyway, your wrong about the biggest potential grievance between RISE and Solidarity being after the election.
It is actually now before the election. Saddens me it does.
Stupid cunts.
@yesindyref2
“Any link / where / when?”
Curtice as guest on today’s episoade. I think iplayer shows are usually available a couple of hours after the broadcast finishes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b078ckss
It is only politicians,Wings readers,some (but not all )political hacks,that actually have an understanding of the voting system,
SNP X 2 is fricken confusing to most voters who think the list vote is a second preference vote,
a lot of the electorate think that if they vote SNP in the 1st vote (constituency)they have to choose someone else in the 2nd vote (regional),
the voting system is a dogs dinner,whoever chose this system is/are utter cretins.
@Graf Midgehunter
Yes, that scans better but I have doubts about using “Freedom”. Maybe just “Indy”?
@BDTT
At this rate we’ll have our own version 🙂
Sorry for the typo, I of course meant Allan Grogan standing for SSP not SNP, he was against the formation of RISE hence choose not to stand for them where I do believe he had a very good chance.
thing about tactical voting is that by being generalistic, it avoids being specific about which regions
if there is tactical voting in glasgow and elsewhere which wins seats but loses seast in the south, they hope to so dissention, they wont need to either, losing just one seat to mundell was the most damaging thing to happen to the indy movement
perhaps the unionists tactics are more sophisticated than it might appear
pnr
lol at stupid cnuts
allan grogans time will come, of that i have no doubt
indeed, if robin macalpine is a contender to lead a populist grass roots yes2 campaign……then so is Allan Grogan.
@Scot Finlayson
Labour and Lib Dems came up with the present voting system
Labour wanted FPTP but compromised with their mates at the time on this current stupidity thinking it would lock the SNP out
Worked well eh
Onwards
The biggest potential grievance after the election will be if the SNP fail to win a majority. The ire that will generate amongst SNP supporters will be vast and forever. I pray it does not come to pass.
In that circumstance level headed folk like myself will turn into Rock. No offence intended.
Now as the SNP are asking for Green supporters and Solidarity supporters and RISE supporters to get behind the SNP on the constituency vote it perhaps seems a bit unfair that SNP supporters are so vehemently against folk voting for the other indy parties on the list. Politics is an ugly business though, and the need for an SNP majority trumps everything; certainly it trumps what is ‘fair’ in this circumstance IN MY VIEW.
I am bored with the rights and wrongs of this- we need to get through the next 2 weeks, win an SNP majority and put all this rancour behind us.
Most of all I am bored of being told who to vote for, by the press, by the BBC, by clowns like the ERS and by every dude with a keyboard or a mobile phone. It seems strange now the concept of being ASKED for our vote. That one precious mark on a bit of paper once every few years that distinguishes us from autocracy and the bastards can’t leave me to make my own mind up.
Christ, we’ve been having the same conversation on Wings for months over and over again. To the exclusion of all else. The parties should have sorted all this shit out ages ago and now its too late.
Wake me up when we join back together and start prepping for breaking out after Brexit. The turmoil will bring with it opportunities… are we ready to seize our chance when it arises?
Malcolm Bruce is talking out his arse,
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scottish_Parliament_election,_2011
The only region where the SNP didn’t get a seat is Lothian. That means that every where else they got the same number of seats for a lower percentage of votes.
I was going to go through the whole D’Hondt process but instead played a hunch and saw what might happen if the Libs won a seat. Unfortunately for them they just miss
The only difference is that the SNP lose one seat and Cons gain one reducing the SNP total to 68 which is still enough for a majority by themselves.
Of course in reality the list vote for the SNP might be higher and that of the Greens loser if they were forced to stand in all constituencies to gather enough votes for a list seat. Don’t know what chance Margo would have had. Seems a fairly efficient way of killing of more minor parties chances though.
@Tam Jardine
You’re right, if the SNP don’t get a majority – presumably an overall majority – I think it will be bad news for the recriminations. I also think it might not matter though as it would very possibly put Indy Ref 2 back 5 years, until after the 2021 HE – and if then.
tam
Wake me up when we join back together and start prepping for breaking out after Brexit. The turmoil will bring with it opportunities… are we ready to seize our chance when it arises?
coiled spring mon ami, coiled spring
bin trying to elect a leader of yes 2 for months now
Prof. Curtice was certainly taking care to be very correct on Scotland 2016 tonight. Alas in the closing discussion, the journo from SoS couldn’t resist bringing up the issue of the SNP leaking some of its list vote. No mention of the same happening to Labour, natch! (The other participant was Clegg of the DR. Oh, where does Scotland 2016 get most of its discussion participants from these days, yoon central?)
Oddly, the ever-unpredictable Kezia raised that tantalising possibility in her speech to the STUC in Dundee, of which a clip was shown on Scotland Tonight. There, in front of all those union members, she asked people to consider giving one of their votes to Labour. (One may speculate about which party she thought would be most deserving of the other.)
Interviewed afterwards, she was back on message, “two for Labour”, as if she had never said anything different.
What on earth is going on? It’s getting ever harder to keep up with her changes of tack. (Are there possibly two Kezias, like Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde…?)
I’ve hud a wee look in ma crystal baw
Any day now the Daily Record’s going to run a front page picture of Davie Bug Clegg begging voters to to give their votes to “Somebody” “Anybody” just not the SNP and that that paper will “VOW” that democracy will be the better for it
because Bella Caledonia and the Common Weal the official YES movement support that option
Signed by Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling
For a more democratic Scotland
@ Yesindyref2
Yes, that scans better but I have doubts about using “Freedom”. Maybe just “Indy”?
Indy doesn’t rhyme no matter how much I try..! 🙂
How about:
“Freedoms just another word for nothing else to lose”
From Janis Joplin – God bless her?
@Scot Finlayson – I think what is more confusing are the terms “First Vote” and “Second vote”. That can make it sound like a second preference vote.
The phrase on the regional voting slip – “Nicola Sturgeon for First Minister”, may shore up votes there.
That was one of the reasons why John Curtice was cautious in the ERS report. The 2011 polls underestimated SNP list support, and more voters actually chose the SNP when faced with the polling slip in front of them. Although they did have advantage of being the first alphabetical choice on the voting slip with “Alex Salmond for First Minister”
https://constitutionunitdotcom.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/scottish-ballot-paper2.jpg
@Tam Jardine – Aye, that goes without saying. That would be the nightmare scenario.
schrodingers cat
I know- I like Robin McAlpine but I canny help thinking we need a leader who is a bit more of a figurehead who everyone can get behind, with a board of a dozen indy folk including Robin from the various groupings and demographics behind him.
2 years on and where is the written constitution? Fuck sake man- CROSS PARTY was what Yes was about; it was above party politics, or rather when it was great it was beyond party politics.
We need a big fuck off rally to bring everyone back together after this election and push for independence. Emphasis on independence instead of this constant talk of referenda. I can see no reason why a country with a vast majority of pro-indy MPs hopefully a majority of pro-indy MSPs (touch wood) and a population who is going to be ripped out of the EU against our will cannot simply gather in numbers and assert the people’s sovereignty.
What is democratic government- what is democratic governance, after all? Our masters would have us think it is some complicated, almost inaccessible, indecipherable concept that is best left to guys like Prof Curtis, Scotland 2016 and the Herald to analyse and understand when actually it is about a group of people consenting to be ruled.
And each individual member of that group has no more strength or durability than a snowflake. What we need is an avalanche.
Calm down please, please.
The total number of seats that the SNP need for a majority is 65, now be realistic, do any of you really believe that possibly the SNP will win less than 65 seats>
So getting real then, we might as well since the future is written. The SNP WILL have a majority, what next?
Whens the next referendum gonna be I demand to know?
What will the SNP do with all those wonderful new powers?
What about the unemployed?
What about the poor?
Will you stop Westminster AUSTERITY??
I’m just having a laugh because I’m absolutely certain that Scotland will have a majority government from May 2016. What I’m not so certain of is what may come next.
I posed a few questions as part of my “joke” anybody want to try and answer because that is the nub of the questions that will be coming the way of the SNP after May’s election.
The result of the election just is the beginning, hopefully of the end of the Union. A lot of hands to be dealt before that table is closed.
Ding! Ding! There off the stools and it’s round 2.
Aye the twa for SLAB = THE TWA FINGERS OF BETH HANS!