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Premature chickens

Posted on July 05, 2020 by

We were looking for something else this afternoon, but accidentally found this:

Just two weeks before the last Holyrood election, widely-respected analysts Weber Shandwick had put together a prediction of how the results would pan out. Just for a bit of fun, let’s compare it to the reality.

Based on a “poll of polls”, WS predicted an increase in the SNP’s absolute majority from 2011, going from 69 seats to 72. But alert readers may recall that that isn’t what happened. The SNP significantly underperformed both on vote share and seats, and actually lost its majority, becoming reliant on the Greens and vulnerable to united opposition attacks, such as the repeal of the Offensive Behaviour (Football) Act.

SEATS

SNP predicted: 72
SNP actual: 63

LAB predicted: 23
LAB actual: 24

CON predicted: 19
CON actual: 31

LIB predicted: 6
LIB actual: 5

CONSTITUENCY VOTE

SNP predicted: 53%
SNP actual: 47%

LAB predicted: 20%
LAB actual: 23%

CON predicted: 17%
CON actual: 22%

LIB predicted: 6%
LIB actual: 8%

REGIONAL VOTE

SNP predicted: 45%
SNP actual: 42%

LAB predicted: 19%
LAB actual: 19%

CON predicted: 17%
CON actual: 23%

LIB predicted: 6%
LIB actual: 5%

GRN predicted: 9%
GRN actual: 7%

The SNP and Green votes and seats were considerably overestimated, while the Tory vote was severely underestimated – Ruth Davidson’s Red Hand Of No Surrender To A Second Referendum Party ended up with an astonishing 63% more seats than the projection, and taking 2nd place from Kezia Dugdale’s hapless Labour.

The Tories are now led by a blundering gammon-faced poltroon and Labour appear staggeringly to have found someone even more hopeless than Dugdale, but swap the two parties around (as they’ve switched 2nd and 3rd) and the figures from today’s Panelbase poll are still eerily similar to those over-optimistic projections from 2016.

2016 SNP predicted: 72 seats
2020 SNP predicted: 74

2016 LAB predicted: 23
2020 CON predicted: 24

2016 CON predicted: 19
2020 LAB predicted: 17

2016 LIB predicted: 6
2020 LIB predicted: 5

2016 GRN predicted: 9
2020 GRN predicted: 9

And today’s poll is 10 MONTHS out from an election, not two weeks. A very great deal of potentially very murky water is yet to flow under the bridge. All we’re saying is, the avalanche of hubristic crowing from certain SNP quarters, and complacency from indy “inevitablists”, might just be getting a little ahead of itself.

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    1. 05 07 20 20:56

      Premature chickens | speymouth

    83 to “Premature chickens”

    1. P says:

      Ah yes, I remember Kinnock and his Bill Clinton inspired conference.

    2. defo says:

      Kinnock was main lining hubris there.

      Give us the results!
      😉

    3. mogabee says:

      Depending on local circumstances I may be forced to vote and campaign against SNP.

      Let’s hope some chicks don’t try and roost near me…

    4. defo says:

      C’mon Stu, it’s cold & dark down here, and there’s some very strange people too.
      Chuck down something to sustain us.

    5. Awizgonny says:

      From what I recall Kinnock had already been told he was going to lose before he gave that speech.

    6. robertknight says:

      SNP ‘support’ might just stay at home in the hope that the current ‘leadership team’ disappear up their collective backsides.

      I doubt another woke-obsessed SNP Govt. at Holyrood, coupled with the existing crop of MPs at Westminster, will bring us any closer to Indy – more’s the pity…

    7. dakk says:

      It would have to be more ‘We’re Aight! , We’re Aight! , We’re Aight! …’ to sound ‘cool’ now.

      Don’t think that’s Nicola’s style really.

      Pete Wishart could maybe carry it off though.

      Not.

    8. robbo says:

      Aye, long way to go indeed. Until the votes are counted and in the bag am keeping stum on predictions of seats.

      As long as it’s twice as many as the Tories,Slab and Fibdems I don’t care.

    9. Dave M says:

      I wonder how many SNP voters are saying they would vote for them when polled, but who’d change their mind if the GRA were to resurface?

    10. twathater says:

      I keep on saying this , Do not become overconfident , pride comes before a fall and THAT is something we can ill afford

    11. Julia Gibb says:

      ??? stop it!

      They probably believe it!

    12. Dan says:

      Indeed, here’s another timely reminder dat the kidz shouldnae be puffin’ oan too much o’ da catnip.

      Stay focused and stay sharp, or… (15secs)

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-9c3T2mdX8I

    13. schrodingers cat says:

      or that come jan 1st and we leave the transition period with no deal and the shit hits the fan, support for indy and snp may rise even more

      here’s hoping

    14. Caroline Wilson says:

      I’ve been saying similar for ages. At the very least, over-confidence can breed complacency amongst supporters (see GE 2017 & to a lesser extent SP 2016). People need to be motivated to turn out to put their cross in the box. Independence supporters- & I can hardly believe this needs to be said- also need to be certain that SNP candidates prioritise independence.

      Then, of course, there’s the not insignificant vengeful elephant lurking in the SNP’s room.

    15. CameronB Brodie says:

      We need a constitutional backstop before the end of the year, and proper management of our judicial system, or else there is not much hope of Scotland ever connecting with international law and order. Westminster is cooking up a new constitutional settlement for Scotland, that will ensure Scotland will never properly enjoy the benefits of democracy. Sigh.

      Judgment and Decision Making, Vol. 8, No. 4, July 2013, pp. 407-424
      Ideology, motivated reasoning, and cognitive reflection

      http://journal.sjdm.org/13/13313/jdm13313.html

    16. Bob Costello says:

      I feel that between now and then, the only thing that will save the SNP is an absolute manifesto for declaring independence, Personally, that is the only thing that will persuade me to give them my constituency vote, Under no circumstances will they get my regional vote.

    17. ElGordo says:

      It will be January 2021 before England realises that 95pct of its sanitary ware is imported from Europe.

      Let that sink in.

    18. MorvenM says:

      Jordon comes out in his true colours:

      https://twitter.com/montague90/status/1279738116677545984

    19. Lothianlad says:

      Indy inevitablists, ?

      Yep, I remember a time, as probably most do, when we campaigned our butts off just to get one MP elected to Westminster in a by election.
      Out of then 72 MPs, our total could just about fill a taxi.

      We could only dream back then of the unbelievable success we could have at the ballot box. However, it’s still did not bring us indy!
      Ironically, back then our success would have been a mandate!

      What scares me about brexit, and the sterile leadership we have is, brexit could be a huge social and economic disaster that large sections of the Tory party and possibly liebour would ditch it and seek re entry to the EU asap.

      The EU would fast track a uk return, and if, Scotland is not Independent before all this, we could be stuck in the uk indefinitely as the huge sacre stories about being out of the EU again if we chose Inday.
      That could sufficiently scare the horses enough to set our cause back.
      All hypothetical of course, But Not impossible.

      So the gradualist inevitablusts, could find they completely underestimated the political landscape leaving us cursing the missed mandates and opportunities we already have.

      Didn’t liebour not take their electoral dominance in Scotland for granted a few years ago?

      It is therefore imperative, we change strategy immediately a d start promoting Independence at every turn.

      That would need a change of leadership because the present leadership is more about administering devolution than gaining independence!

      I read alot of pish and bile on this site recently, about Alex Salmond and how he ‘ lost’ us the 2014 referendum.

      It wasnt because of AS we didn’t win in 2014, it was because of folk like that editor of the daily rancid who engineered the famous ‘ VOW” ! This him who NS employed recently.

      Given her very close association with Lesley Evan’s, the woke brigade and other dubious careerist politicians, she has strange bedfellows for a supposedly pro independence FM!.

      I wont go into all the squandered mandates again, but as stu rightly points out, electoral success should not be taken for granted.

      Going back to AS, he did not start the indy campaign in 2014, on such a tsunami of support that NS has largely inherited, or we Would have independence already.

      That’s the difference between a real leader, and the administrator of british rule in Scotland!

    20. velofello says:

      Mike Russell in today’s Sunday National clearly advised the urgency of our situation.

      Upon exit from the EU Westminster will impose a UK Internal Market. The standards of the EU will no longer apply, and the way will be open, for example –

      for USA food standards to be aligned with the “UK Internal Market standards”.

      The likely cheaper cost of such USA standard food will be purchased by the poorest in society, and will lead to their poorer health, and shorter life expectancy.A kind of Eugenics solution to UK Government fiscal policies.

      The Scottish government need to make this issue their No! priority before 31 December arrives. Pass the Covid briefings to Jean Freeman Nicola and raise awareness of this issue of the UK Internal Market to the people.

    21. terence callachan says:

      Weber Shandwick hmm yes what do we know about them
      A company fairly new to the scene
      Taken over
      Then do a take over hotly followed by contracts with microsoft , national governments including the USA

      Sure theyre well respected

      But something is wrong here , they must have insiders to get government contracts around the world

      So why are they doing a wee poll in scotland ?

      As usual just like all the other pollsters we SHOULDNT believe
      They are based in london

    22. CameronB Brodie says:

      IMHO, a softly, softly, gradualism was necessary to broaden the SNP’s political base, and gave us the chance to almost do the job in 2014. However, the first indy ref came before we were properly ready, and we didn’t quite manage to do the job.

      The reality of the political context has changed radically since then, and a far stronger and proactive approach is required to effectively defend our constitutional identity.

      The British constitution was emptied of democratic content the minute Westminster approved Brexit, and action should have been launched to secure a legal backstop and the legal framework for a constitutional plebiscite of some kind.

      Strategy needs to reflect context and Westminster is an exceptionalist patriarchy that considers itself impervious and superiour to international law. Subsequently, British constitutional practice does not articulate law, it articulates legal convention that denies Scotland access to constitutional justice. However, it has the legal strength of a wet paper bag, if you know how to attack it correctly.

      So it would help Scotland’s case considerably, if we had someone in government who actually understood constitutional law.

      Full text.

      International Journal of Constitutional Law, Volume 14, Issue 2, April 2016, Pages 411–438
      Constitutional identity, unconstitutional amendments and the idea of constituent power: The development of the doctrine of constitutional identity in German constitutional law

      Abstract
      The article examines how the concept of constitutional identity has evolved in German constitutional history since 1871, the year of entry into force of the first Germany-wide constitution. This article outlines the theoretical ideas and historical constellations framing the evolution of the notion of constitutional identity, and helps demystify the legal concept.

      It shows that during the period governed by the Constitution of the German Reich of 1871, the concept of constitutional identity was, in principle, unknown. It was only during the period of the Weimar Constitution, that the notion of constitutional identity was introduced. In 1928, the notion was used by the anti-democratic constitutional lawyers, Carl Schmitt and Carl Bilfinger, within their different theories of justifying the implicit (constitutional) limits on amendments to the Weimar Constitution.

      In the course of the drafting of the German Basic Law, there was no reference to the notion of constitutional identity. It was only after the German Basic Law had come into force that the notion (re-)emerged. It was used in some aspects of the legal doctrine in order to interpret article 79(3) of the German Basic Law in the light of the ideas of Carl Schmitt.

      More recently, it was adopted by the German Constitutional Court in order to justify constitutional limits on European integration. The article ends with an assessment of the development of the German concept of constitutional identity. For this purpose, the German doctrine is contrasted with French constitutional law.

      https://academic.oup.com/icon/article/13/1/124/689896

    23. Liz g says:

      Well…like ma wee Mither always says
      “theurs monay a slip bitwix cup and lip”
      So let’s get us some wellies in case the “chanty bursts” aye?

    24. HandandShrimp says:

      It is true that 10 months is a long time in politics so while the polls are encouraging complacency would be folly.

      That said, Carlaw and Leonard are not media friendly. Indeed, Jackson really does have a face for radio. In 2016 the Tory Party rebadged themselves as the Ruthy Party of No Surrender. They sort of tried to still use her stamp of approval last December. It didn’t cut the mustard. Jackson is on his own (which is better I suppose than having Johnson come up and back him).

      Labour are still in Corbyn purge mode or something. Whenever, they start to look almost relevant they find another foot to shoot (their emblem should be a millipede with lots of bandaged feet).

      The SNP are not without fault but they are very lucky with their opposition.

    25. Dan says:

      Ahh! Bisto… and the smell of pre-counted roast chlorinated chickens as “Senior SNP figures predict…”

      https://twitter.com/kacnutt/status/1279725992597164033

    26. CameronB Brodie says:

      Feeling adventurous? Sorry, only an abstract and references, but it’s a start. 🙂

      The Concept of Constitutional Identity as a Legal Argument in Constitutional Judicial Practice

      Abstract
      Constitutional identity has recently emerged as a relevant concept in the theory of constitutional law. It first appeared in constitutional decision reasoning in the second half of the 20th century, particularly in cases concerning the process of European integration.

      Constitutional courts all over Europe have started to use this notion as a legal counterargument against the growing influence of the European Court of Justice on the national legal systems of member states. At the theoretical level, the use of this new concept caused a lot of criticism by law scholars, due, in their opinion, to its non-legal unscientific character.

      At the same time, there are also many supporters of this concept, mainly the representatives of the civilizational and sociocultural approaches to law. One way or another, it is fair to say that this concept has captured the attention of constitutional lawyers who, nevertheless, have not come yet to a common understanding of this notion.

      Some of them suggest defining constitutional identity as a method of legal argumentation, but there are still no comprehensive studies of this concept using achievements of the theory of legal argumentation. This article represents an attempt to research the notion of “constitutional identity” through the prism of the latter.

      Keywords
      constitutional identity, constitutional decision reasoning, theory of legal argumentation, interaction of national and interstate jurisdictions

      https://www.russianlawjournal.org/jour/article/view/864

    27. Gary45% says:

      Labour FC.
      They run towards the open goal, they shoot.
      The ball goes right over the Hampden roof.
      Well its Labour afterall.
      SNP take note!!

    28. The Dissident says:

      As you allude to, there were plenty of polls much better than this for the SNP which were much closer to the 2016 election than this one is to the 2020 election.

      Support for the SNP plummeted by between 10 and 15 percent (depending on your baseline) in the two months leading up to the 2016 election. I suspect the numbers now are even softer than they were then as much of it seems to be driven by perceptions of a transient emergency and comparisons with Westminster.

      Sturgeon’s covid performance is just that – a performance. Our outcomes in terms of excess deaths are amongst the worst on the planet. Thousands of lives have been lost in Scotland because we took no action until Westminster did. That is not leadership. That is following with the kicker being that we chose to follow the very worst example possible, then didn’t change course until it was way too late.

      And before any of the apologists say ‘we don’t have the powers’ just ask yourselves, after 4 years of mandate after mandate, whose fault that is. Then get your heads out of the UK/US media bubble and consider how much bigger countries like Senegal and Ghana with next to no health service as we would understand it have managed to keep their Covid deaths in the low hundreds.

      There are many, many questions to be asked about what the Scottish Government was doing at the outset of this emergency and the answers are not going to be pretty, assuming we ever get them.

      If our vision for an Independent Scotland is to be ‘not quite as bad as England’ then, frankly, it is just not worth the bother. And shame on everyone who considers Scotland’s performance during this pandemic as acceptable because ‘not quite as bad as England’ is about the only positive thing you can say about it.

    29. Oscar says:

      What about the new INDY Party?

    30. Dan says:

      @Gary45%

      C’mon, get with the times, the wokeists won’t let us kick the Indy ball over the line coz it’s made of leather, and kicking leather is basically assaulting a cow, and that’s just not on these days. 😉

      #CowLivesMatter (like all lives)

      Now where did I put that cheeseburger…

    31. Andy McColl says:

      This almost sounds like you’re setting us up for something Stu… Something involving the list vote…. ?

    32. defo says:

      German gobbledeygook, Russian word salad, what’s next CBB ?
      I’m going for Hungarian havering.

    33. Brian Doonthetoon says:

      A few days ago, somebody suggested that “somebody” in the SNP government should move for a vote of no confidence in the Holyrood SNP government.

      By arrangement with the Greens, this would be carried.

      The SNP and Greens, having a majority, would then vote against every proposal put forward by the opposition tories blue, red and orange) to take on government, including the position of First Minister.

      I understand, if no government is in place within 28 days, there has to be an election.

      This election could be pencilled in for the start of November. The pro-indy parties would have in their manifestos that 50%+1 of both the constituency vote and the regional vote would provide a mandate to declare independence.

      With a positive vote, independence declared on 30th November, St Andrew’s Day. Thus Scotland is independent, before the end of the EU transition period. Would that not open up a fine can of worms RE the rUK/EU negotiations about a trade deal (if they’re still negotiating)?

      No Section 30 required. Negotiations then start between the UK England and Scotland, on the terms of dissolving the UK’s Treaty of Union.

      I wouldn’t be surprised if this plan is sitting in Bute House’s armoury cupboard, with a sachet of silica gel to keep it dry, until required.

    34. CameronB Brodie says:

      I honestly hope there are better trained legal minds than mine in the SNP, or we are unlike to be able to defend our legal identity. However, the GRA and Hate bill proposals do not suggest there is much appreciation of law going on in Holyrood. Just the opposite, in fact.

      Full text.

      RE-CONCEIVING “BORDERS”: A FEMINIST PRAGMATIC PHENOMENOLOGY FOR POSTCOLONIAL FEMINIST ETHICS AND POLITICS
      https://core.ac.uk/reader/36686230

    35. CameronB Brodie says:

      defo
      You appear hostile to an education in constitutional law. So away and take a long, hard, look at yourself.

    36. call me dave says:

      @Brian Doonthetoon

      “Well that’s new”! …as my chess programme sometimes says. 🙂

      It’s like Christmas eve…. waiting for a new new thread!

      PS:
      Leading academic admits BBC Scotland is horribly biased

      https://archive.is/22NjR

      PPS:
      Boris just announced £1.5bn to save the arts & muic in the ‘UK’

    37. schrodingers cat says:

      @bdtt

      very probably, but as the rev pointed out, the polls are very tight, they could easily slip, if we wait until after jan 1st the polls for yes will climb higher and have a safer margin.

      after saying that, if the polls continue to rise during the ending of the lockdown, we might hold it before jan 1st, and it is a landslide, say 55%, the eu might, just might, stick its neck out, and if, a i believe, that even unionists in scotland would reject wm saying no

    38. Derek says:

      My sole observation would be that I have friends that have moved from no to yes, but none that have moved the opposite way. Even my elderly mother is now on first-name terms with Nicola; not sure that that’ll translate to a shift tho’…

    39. CameronB Brodie says:

      defo
      My perspective can be described as a combination of critical realism, empirical naturalism, moral realism, and ethical rationalism, topped off with a post-colonial, bio-neurologically sensitive, approach to law. Now tell me you know better.

    40. call me dave says:

      Prof Curtis pontificates in tomorrows ‘The National’

      https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1279874440604483584/photo/1

    41. Col.Blimp IV says:

      Derek

      I have made similar observations but also know a few who have shifted from being SNP supporters to independence supporters who would not vote SNP if there was an alternative and are one squandered mandate away from abandoning them altogether.

    42. mike cassidy says:

      Right.

      Its past the watershed’s watershed.

      So how about a CBB special

      In which a transactivist argues on a ‘serious’ news program that quantum physics makes redundant any claim that there are only two sexes.

      Or something like that.

      Don’t you dare laugh!

      https://twitter.com/AlessandraAster/status/1279363260198916096

    43. Joe says:

      Just want to add something from the last comments on the article – https://wingsoverscotland.com/the-indivisible-kingdom/#comments

      I know rules to protect paedophiles from public backlash/hate speech are coming. Among other things. Theres already moves been made by other ‘progressive’ governments in this direction

    44. Joe says:

      The people behind the trans movement will push paedophilia as acceptible sexual orientation. Just as we have had an array of things pushed on us that divide and weaken our society and culture and divide us politically. From hostile political religions, to science denying gender dogma we will next have our children open to sexual exploitation and beware those who disagree

    45. Joe says:

      This is all enabled by political correctness – the denial of facts in order to not cause offense. Which is now being enshrined in law.

      We are losing our civilisation and our future.

    46. Liz g says:

      Joe @ 12.34
      Polls Joe,we’re talking of polls..do keep up and stop living in past threads

    47. Joe says:

      So who benefits from a society fragmented into hundreds of toxic political entities? Those who would rule us and would like us to be politically neutered by 100 different divisions.

      This is where this crap comes from. This is why people like me are trying to show the bigger picture to a frustratingly blind people

    48. call me dave says:

      Prof King, ex Government scientific advisor, praising Scotland & N Ireland on all things covid-19 there on radio 5.

      Confirms that the eradication approach to the virus is working better than allowing the virus to circulate at higher levels as is the case in England

      Confirms that the risk in Scotland is 5 x lower than in England.

      Opening pubs sure to cause more spikes

      Also predicts Bradford will be in lock-down soon as figures indicate the virus risk there is growing.

      I googled hot spots:

      Data reveals coronavirus hotspots in Bradford, Barnsley and Rochdale

      https://archive.is/1s4fr

    49. Joe says:

      @Liz g

      No, ill say what I like until WOS says otherwise. Got it? You dumb c*nt? 🙂

    50. Joe says:

      The Scottish parliament is entirely given over to that agenda. Until that is recognised and changed it wont matter who you vote for. It would be nice for people to not have to go through real oppression before thats realised. Thats one fucking vain hope though.

    51. defo says:

      CBB
      Is perspective the stuff they make the bus shelters out of?

      Mother to small child…
      “Mind take your perspective with you when you’re going out, just in case”

      When Scots say “Och he’s a character!”, most understand it’s code for… well you know, it’s not flattering!
      🙂

    52. schrodingers cat says:

      neil oliver standing down fro nts 🙂

      i think it was the spoof twitter account which finally pushed him over the edge @KneelAllover

      i hope he isnt getting a severance package or a pension?

    53. Liz g says:

      Joe @ 12.47
      Charming

    54. CameronB Brodie says:

      mike cassidy
      Infamy, infamy… 😉

      I’ve already responded to that colourful individual though and introduction to a quantum approach to law, as a means of respecting the phenomenological differences between the sexes. So here’s another way of looking at things.

      The public sphere is traditionally male in personality and outlook, including the law. This means that women had to fight for legal recognition as “being” equal but different to males, which they managed to achieve, thereby enabling the development of a legal framework of legal rights specific to the needs of biological women.

      Genderwoowoo aims to undo this legal settlement, by subourdinating and colonising the female legal identity, in pretty much the same way as British nationalism subordinates and colonises Scottish culture. ;(

      Full text.

      The right to a legal identity or the right to a legal ID?
      https://www.statelessness.eu/blog/right-legal-identity-or-right-legal-id

    55. Liz g says:

      Shrodingers Cat @ 1.06
      Where are you hearing that?

    56. CameronB Brodie says:

      defo
      I think the readers will judge who’s judgement to trust. I don’t think it will be that though a call though, between your poorly informed and narrow perspective, or my transcendentally informed legal realism. With added link yah bass. 😉

    57. Liz g says:

      Shrodingers Cat
      It’s ok I’m seeing it now 🙂 ….yay

    58. Beaker says:

      Never, ever trust extrapolation using random samples. I should know, having worked with such calculations for years. Only when there is a consistent trend is it safe (well, safer). Politics being politics though can turn on its head overnight. For example, popularity ratings before an eye test and after…

      O/T – JKR getting attacked again on Twitter by the crazy gangs. Surprised the usual suspects haven’t joined in yet.

    59. Col.Blimp IV says:

      Joe

      “This is where this crap comes from. This is why people like me are trying to show the bigger picture to a frustratingly blind people”

      You are coming at them from so many different angles, they have marked you down as a Troll, seeking to deflect us from the big issue, once folk have made their minds up it is difficult for them to admit that they were wrong.

      In the early 80’s a bloke who I assumed was an absolute nutter tried to enlighten me about a shadowy uber-capitalist outfit then known as the Trilateralists.

      Back then and for the next twenty or thirty years, anyone asking me what I saw as the principle threat to Scottish culture or the future prosperity of Jock Tamson and his bairns – I would have been convinced it was British/English Imperialism both the deliberate political kind and the accidental but inevitable consequence of being the junior partner in a lop-sided Union.

      Of late I have become just as confident that the major threat to all of humanity’s well being is Global Capitalism, driven by that same malignant fascist coterie I was warned about all those years ago, now aided and abetted by an army of “useful idiots” who still imagine themselves to be left wingers, radicals and progressives.

      Not blind fools who have failed to notice that the bastards have moved the goalposts and changed the rules.

    60. dakk says:

      schrodingers cat says:
      6 July, 2020 at 1:06 am
      neil oliver standing down fro nts ?

      Result!!!

    61. Liz g says:

      Col Blimp IV @ 1.21
      Never fear…they’re all having a “staycation” @ Bohemian Grove because of Covid….
      And we’re all waiting on Joe becoming Cybil once more 🙂
      Such is life!

    62. Confused says:

      joe

      – trans-activism is merely the current frontline in the long running sexual liberation agenda (and “sexual rights for children” was attempted in the 70s, it never took)

      – identity politics balkanises society into a myriad of self loathing mutually hating elements

      – there is a fake left and a fake right controlled by the same people

      – BLM has deep money and deeper agendas behind –
      https://isgp-studies.com/immigration-white-guilt-warfare-manual#elite-motives-behind-white-guilt

      – welcome to deep politics, now stop rabbitting on as if the folks here have never read any of this stuff; the BTL is struggling to maintain relevance and coherence

    63. Stoker says:

      They are mobilising under various guises. This one was started just in May 2020. The guy behind it, Mark Devlin, is very familiar but I just can’t place him at this moment in time. https://twitter.com/themajorityscot/status/1278661453772398593

    64. Liz g says:

      Confused @ 1.44
      Oh the Joe’s all know,they just want to divert the conversation over to what they want us to talk about.
      To their eternal shame some Cun*t’s notice… whit are we like eh 🙂

    65. CameronB Brodie says:

      I just wish I was a better proof reader, though I’m still missing my glasses, as I don’t think my spelling will ever improve. Neither will access to constitutional justice in Scotland, if Scotland does not exert her legal identity. Scotland was a legal equal to England, and Scots were a protected constitutional minority.

      However, English Torydum thinks it can use national law to remove fundamental rights protected under international law. Westminster has allowed this to happen as Westminster is an institutionally racist patriarchy, with a cultural tradition of articulating authoritarian English nationalism. So is it any wonder a large chunk of Scotland simply doesn’t trust British justice?

      Full text.

      Existential Phenomenology’s Role in Understanding Minority Cynicism in the American Legal System

      Abstract
      This paper will discuss the cynicism many people of color have toward the American legal system by using the
      intersections between existential philosophy, Africana philosophy, black existentialism and phenomenology.

      This paper will explore the cynicism and lack of trust held by many American minorities toward the American legal and judicial systems primarily through the lenses of philosophy, but additionally, the disciplines of: psychology, political science, criminology and sociology will also be discussed as they are vital and unavoidable disciplines to the discussion.

      Therefore, the methodology of this paper is intersectionality, meaning that all of the above systems as well as the philosophical systems of: existential philosophy, Africana philosophy, and existential phenomenology work interconnectively within the context of legal cynicism amongst American minorities.

      The primary goal of this paper is to identify and describe possible causes for the lack of trust many Americans of color have toward the legal system by examining various philosophical writings from the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.

      It is my belief that though many of these writings were written over a hundred years ago by philosophers who came from backgrounds very different than the communities that are largely plagued by lack of trust towards the American legal system, their writings are highly pertinent and provide answers to why cynicism toward the American legal system exists among minorities today.

      https://commons.emich.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1362&context=honors

    66. Col.Blimp IV says:

      Liz g

      I’m not sure that a Ku Klux Klan hood offers much protection against covid 19.

    67. CameronB Brodie says:

      Col.Blimp IV
      Joe is punting right-wing populism and is not a savoury individual, IMHO. He has no interest in supporting inclusive democracy, and his target is the Scottish government.

    68. Liz g says:

      Col Blimp IV @ 1.56
      But the Owls Col B, the Owls are magic…. 🙂

    69. Liz g says:

      Cameron B Brodie @ 1.56
      Aye well that’s one of them…then there’s the too sweet tae be wholesome wan….
      Anyhoo…Polls Cameron…..we’re talking polls and it’s bugging the life out of some…
      Let’s no stop doing it 🙂

    70. Stoker says:

      And here’s another one just, coincidentally, started up in May 2020. https://twitter.com/OppScot

    71. CameronB Brodie says:

      Liz g 😉

    72. Col.Blimp IV says:

      Liz g

      I thought women weren’t alowled into to that club.

    73. Liz g says:

      Col Blimp IV @ 2.27
      Now Now Col B 4 no buddy can apparently tell what a Woman is!
      No matter, “guild yer loins” fur mair poll talk the morra 🙂
      Early doors,I feel in ma watter… am away the polish ma broom stick

    74. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “No, ill say what I like until WOS says otherwise. Got it? You dumb c*nt?”

      Well, for a start you can stop calling people “dumb cunts”.

    75. Willie says:

      Ah yes, vaulting optimism from some SNP quarters.

      “ Prepare for Government “ .

      Now who was it that said that?

    76. susan says:

      On the surface good news, but are the SNP getting too confident, complacent even?

    77. Ian McCubbin says:

      The SNP MPs swallowing unionist press and condemning a peaceful protest at the border does n’t help their future ratings. Nor does crowing about every topic but independence.
      I for one won’t canvas for Pete Wishart again.
      Replicate this by every other activist who is fed up with promises of mana in form of independence tomorrow yet its never delivered and we could see 2021 election with SNP lose majority outright.
      Nae Indy cause left. That would probably suit the careerists who now just want the money.
      Hope I am wrong and they actually do declare us independent before next year.
      The perfect storm will pass and so will the opportunity.

    78. Joe says:

      @Rev.Stuart Campbell

      Noted. Thank you

      @Everyone else

      If the conversation is how the SNP are polling for the next election and how that might help the cause of Scottish independence then, no, the underlying problem isn’t understood or accepted.

      The last few years has been one massive issue of denial after another with results that a few have tried to gently (and not so gently) warn of. There is simply so few people in the Scottish Independence movement capable of actually seeing despite, as i’ve said, everything turning out to how the alert few has warned of for a few years now.

      The cause of Scottish independence has become something more akin to a wish list rather than a goal with a set of targets.

      The future looks not so bright thanks to the idea’s of the very people the bulk of Scottish nationalists are planning on voting for. There is a dawning realisation among the more alert that something is very badly wrong and that our country might soon be a place we won’t want to live in.

      As Billy Connolly said ‘The Scots will get what they vote for.’

      Trouble is – the rest of us are watching on as the car crash that is ‘the Scottish Independence’ movement with its ideological rigidity move onward and is immune to all common sense.

      Where does that leave people who wake up to this?

      It leaves us with the only thing we have left – using our votes against you

    79. Muscleguy says:

      Indeed the scandal of the Salmond Inquiry at Holyrood is set to muddy the waters considerably before the election. The SNP does not control this, the parliamentary non SNP majority does. Sturgeon at the very least is likely to be censured. She may not survive. Mr Sturgeon Peter Murrell also may not survive. Public faith in the bona fides of the SNP could be badly shaken.

      Much of this has not been factored into by the population most of whom are not politics wonks like us. The revelations will be all over the media and hard to ignore and will come as a nasty surprise to many intended SNP voters. Absenteeism is the least of the SNP’s worries. The Greens will hope to prosper, the ISP hope to prosper. The unionists hope to prosper.

      I would not bet against any of that. The SNP have been the scottish govt for a record lenght of time. Defiance of normal political gravity can only be maintained for so long and a big scandal which cannot be contained could bring them crashing down amidst infighting, recrimination and jockying for position. Voters do not reward infighting parties.

      The SNP and the wider Yes movement could live to regret those wasted mandates. I dearly hope this won’t happen but I wouldn’t be against that either. The future need not be like the present.

    80. Republicofscotland says:

      The National newspaper carries an article today that says the ennobled millionaire Knight of the Realm, and Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer might give Leonard the boot from the London Labour branch office in Scotland.

      Would anybody really notice that he wasn’t asking the questions at FMQs such is his lack of charisma? I know I wouldn’t.

      https://www.thenational.scot/news/18562868.richard-leonards-future-doubt-scottish-labour-bombs-polls/

    81. iain mhor says:

      Well, there are polls and those who cast the runes based on them. Then latter is always a problem of interpretation of data sets.

      A bit like the Beeb and the Met Office (When they used data from the Met) the Beeb local weather forecast was consistently more accurate than the Met Office (I fish, nuff said) It was the reading of the runes they were better at.
      So yes, it depends entirely on who is rolling the bones and consistently good at it.

      I’m more interested in trends over time for such political polls, which requires looking at a wider data set altogether. Still, individual polls are ways interesting, even ‘polls of polls’ (Whatukthinks.org & Curtice have a few of them regularly) but I wouldn’t like to bet on them.
      My Derby runner should be at the glue factory by now.

    82. BILL says:

      A week is a long time in politics

    83. Polly says:

      In some quarters there may be some use in counting on those chickens. A relative of mine, who not long ago said to me ‘but how would we manage if independent, you’ve got to think of that’ railed this week about not being able to close the border to incomers from England and started telling me how much better the government up here had handled covid. So a unionist is sometimes less likely than some SNP folk to criticise the people who took their banners to the border.

      The irony is a little knowledge can also be a good thing and people who know more about some of SNP’s other policies might feel forced to go in other direction.



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