Wings Over Scotland

The debate about whether an independent Scotland which joined or remained in the EU would be forced to adopt the Euro – and therefore be liable for a multi-billion-pound contribution to the eurozone bailout fund, the subject of much Unionist scaremongering in recent days – would appear to have reached a definitive end. A letter in today's Scotsman from Drew Scott, Professor of European Union Studies at the University of Edinburgh, backs up a blog on Thursday from SNP activist and EU law graduate Stephen Noon by noting that regardless of current rules which say new members must join the currency, the EU also stipulates that no member can do so without first being a member of the Exchange Rate Mechanism for two years.

ERM participation, however, is not compulsory for new members. And therefore any country joining the EU – whether as a successor state or from scratch – which doesn't want to join the Euro can simply elect to remain outwith the ERM, and therefore put off joining the Euro indefinitely. Noon points to the specific chapter and verse in EU regulations, and Professor Scott backs his conclusion. Scotland CAN join the EU but stay out of the Euro. The argument would seem to be over.

The latest Scottish circulation figures for UK print media are out, and perhaps to nobody’s great surprise they show a continuing sharp decline, as well as the breaking of a significant barrier – for the first time, total daily sales of newspapers in Scotland have slumped below a million, at 986,657 (down from 1,078,544 in the previous period).

The Herald and Scotsman both show heavy falls (13.2% and 8.3% respectively), and while the Herald still holds a clear lead over its broadsheet rival the gap has closed slightly, from 11,000 to 8000. The story is different for the Sunday versions, with the Sunday Herald (which underwent a dramatic format change during the period, from a traditional paper to a magazine-style offering) losing a whopping 31% (down to just 29,000), while Scotland On Sunday lost a more modest 9%, down to 46,000, doubling its lead over its rival from 9000 to 18,000.

Over in tabloid territory things are much the same, with the Daily Record dropping 9%, losing further ground to the Scottish Sun which dropped just 6% and now leads its once-dominant rival by a hefty 47,000 copies a day. (More than the entire daily circulation of the Herald.)

There are falls across the board (the bizarre Scotophobia of the Independent now finds just 7,000 daily takers north of the border), with one exception – the closure of the News Of The World has seen huge jumps for most of the tabloid Sundays. The People leaps 85%, the Sunday Mirror 83% and the Star more than doubles its sales, with a 120% boost taking it past both SoS and the Sunday Herald to just under 60,000.

Perhaps the most interesting thing, though, is that the traditional Sunday tabloids of choice in Scotland – the Sunday Post and the Sunday Mail – see nothing of this benefit. The Mail picks up just 3%, and the Post actually manages to drop 1% despite the loss of their major tabloid competition.

However, the big two now comfortably outsell everything else put together (587,000 for the Mail and Post combined, versus 441,000 for the other 11 titles), because many of the NOTW’s readers haven’t moved anywhere else but have simply stopped buying a Sunday paper entirely (or are buying one fewer) – of around 240,000 people who used to buy it, increases in the other Sundays amount to only 70,000 or so, a huge loss to the overall sector of 170,000 sales a week.

The oddest anomaly remains the performance of the two Daily Mail titles, which both fall but narrowly stay above six figures, and outsell their respective daily and Sunday equivalents on the Herald and Scotsman added together. This perhaps tells us more about the Mail’s true position on the tabloid-broadsheet spectrum than anything more significant, but it’s still a jarring statistic in a Tory-hostile nation.

What political conclusions can we draw from this? In the absence of website readership figures, perhaps not many. But it seems clear that the attention of the Scottish public is being drawn increasingly away from printed media and towards the internet. That’s an area where the nationalists have several years of a head start in terms of presence – the online communities of even staunchly Unionist papers like the Scotsman and Record are dominated by the pro-SNP camp – and it’ll be interesting to see if the opposition can do anything to catch up.

The backlash against Iain Gray's ill-judged and mendacious valedictory speech to the Scottish Labour conference continues today, as Sue Varley over on Newsnet Scotland presents what's billed as an impartial outsider's take on the supposedly mutual loathing between Labour and the SNP. While NNS itself is far from neutral, she finds what I suspect most neutral observers would – that the much-maligned army of "cybernats" is on the whole far more civilly behaved, and more committed to at least attempting reasoned and evidence-based debate, than Labour's own online activist battalions. A measured and worthwhile read.

There's a strong and thoughtful piece from new Better Nation editor Kirsty Connell today about how the opposition in Scotland is failing the fight against poverty, and others are picking up the slack. It's heartening to know that there are at least a few people outside the SNP turning away from what Connell describes with dismay as "the broken tactic of opposition for opposition’s sake".

Just as Hamish McDonnell catches up (for the Independent) with the Scotsman's unattributed three-day-old story about the possibility of the Unionist parties combining to hold their own Westminster-run independence referendum, the Herald once again acts like something approaching a proper newspaper and manages to get an actual on-the-record quote from an actual MP – the Shadow Scottish Secretary, no less – comprehensively rubbishing the idea. As you were, then.

The Scotsman today wastes its front page on an even more pointless piece of anti-SNP scaremongering than usual. Despite the UK government having repeatedly made clear that it will not seek to place any obstacles in the way of the Scottish Parliament holding an independence referendum, the paper drags up a previously unheard-of "expert" from Glasgow University to insist in strident terms that the poll will be unlawful and that the Westminster administration must conduct the vote immediately instead. No suggestion is offered in the article as to who might actually be mounting any theoretical legal challenge to the referendum bill, given that the UK government has already explicitly said it wouldn't.

The entire story is a piece of delusional fantasy roughly equivalent to a tramp standing on the beach shouting at the tide not to come in. It's barely possible to imagine what the Scotsman hopes to achieve with this sort of witless nat-bashing drivel, other than to increasingly irritate the Scottish electorate with constant assertions of their inferiority. (Or as the paper itself put it recently, "Even from a Unionist perspective it would be self-defeating. Nothing could be more calculated to provoke Scottish resentment, leading to an electoral backlash, than such high-handed behaviour.")

Speaking from a nationalist perspective, long may they continue.

The current narrative of the opposition parties and media is focusing heavily on an independent Scotland's status in the European Union, and whether it would have to adopt the Euro or not. The Unionist camp is getting extremely agitated about the issue, which is slightly mystifying as it's not one which has ever featured highly on lists of Scottish voters' priorities whenever anyone's asked them.

There's probably a very simple reason for that: nobody really cares. UKIP gets next to no votes in Scotland, and the average Scot in the street, we suspect, doesn't actually give a monkey's about Scotland's Euro-status. That's not because they're insular or stupid, but because they realise it doesn't make a great deal of difference to anything.

Why? To see the answer to that, the most obvious thing to do is to look at some of the nations most easily comparable to Scotland, and that means a glance over the North Sea to our Scandinavian neighbours. Conveniently, between them the Scandinavians encompass all possible permutations of EU and Euro membership, and three of them are almost identical in size to Scotland (pop 5.2m), meaning we should be able to draw a few broad but useful parallels. So let's take a wee peek.

Read the rest of this entry →

…seems to be the underlying message of a faintly extraordinary blog by Simon Johnson in the Telegraph today. Reacting to the suggestion (which appears to be solely his own) that the SNP will stage the independence referendum in 2014 to take advantage of patriotic events like the Commonwealth Games and the 700th anniversary of Bannockburn, Johnson suggests that the plan could backfire.

"2014 is also the 100th anniversary of the outbreak of the First World War and the 75th anniversary of the Second World War. This would provide the Unionists with ample opportunity to remind the Scottish people how they stood together with the English, Welsh and Northern Irish to defeat Nazism."

It's a fair point, and if by 2014 the Nazi threat is indeed once again looming over Europe, it may well affect the outcome of the referendum. But if the Unionists are already reduced to crossing their fingers for the rise of a new Hitler to stop the SNP, it would seem they're in even more desperate straits than anyone thought.

In the spirit of Iain Macwhirter's old-skool journalistic spadework, we've been doing a little of our own. There's been a lot of talk recently about a "rigged" referendum, with the Unionist parties demanding that the SNP pose only a single question on independence in the poll – insisting that that's all they have a mandate for, rather than also including a question on Full Fiscal Autonomy. But a quick look at the 2011 SNP manifesto suggests otherwise. As early as page 3, the manifesto says the following:

"We will bring forward our proposals to give Scots a vote on full economic powers through an independence referendum." (our emphasis)

That seems to us to fairly clearly allow for an interpretation that would include a devo max question. After all, with full independence the qualifying word "economic" is redundant – an independent nation has ALL powers, not just economic ones – so what else could those three words mean other than also offering the Scottish electorate the choice of full economic powers (aka Full Fiscal Autonomy) within the UK, as well as that of complete independence? It looks very much like the SNP worded their manifesto commitment very carefully to keep their options open, and the protestations of the Unionist parties that they only have the mandate for a single question on full independence would appear to be without any basis in fact.

After Ruth Davidson's much-publicised difficulties with getting her new charges to fall into line, the new Scottish Conservative parliamentary team has been announced, and as luck would have it there was exactly one job for every MSP in the Tory ranks. Lucky they didn't get any more seats, eh?

Iain Macwhirter on his own blog, acting like a proper grown-up journalist and actually doing the research on the "Would Scotland be allowed into the EU?" debate:

"I've just been looking at the latest report to hit the front pages.  It came from the House of Commons Library and it is a background briefing note, not an authoritative assessment of the Scotland's legal status within the EU. It carries its own health warning:  "[This briefing note]  should not be relied upon as legal or professional advice or as a substitute for it.  A suitably qualified professional should be consulted.""

(For the details of individual entries, see here.)

As alert followers of Scottish politics will know, the Unionist parties (Scottish Labour in particular) are deeply convinced of the need to put to the people of Scotland the “positive case for the Union”, in order to secure victory for the No campaign in the forthcoming independence referendum. Oddly, while the parties and their friendly pundits are apparently unanimous on the need for this case to be put urgently following the SNP’s majority victory in the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, it’s remained stubbornly conspicuous by its absence, even if you search back for over 30 years.

Wings Over Scotland is keeping its eyes peeled, though, and you can be sure that if and when this mythical beast ever does rise from the murky waters of the political Loch Ness it must be lurking in, we’ll be there to capture it for posterity. From today we’ll be logging possible sightings, and recording them below, like this:

“It’s our job to drown out [Alex Salmond’s] separatist rhetoric with a positive case for keeping the Union intact.”
(Baroness Sayeeda Warsi, Conservative Party chairman, March 2012)

“There is a desperate need to say why Scotland is better, stronger and more united as part of the UK. Make the case. Get the pro-Scotland in the UK side on the pitch and let battle commence.”
(Tavish Scott, former leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats, February 2012)

“We have to make a positive case for the union.”
(Unnamed “Scottish Tory spokesman” in the Telegraph, February 2012)

“We need to hear detailed reasons and hard facts about why Scotland is better off as part of the UK — not slogans and scaremongering.”
(The Sun editorial, January 2012)

“In a speech in Glasgow later today, Ed Miliband will seek to go beyond the process-driven debate over independence for Scotland, seeking to make a positive case for Scotland to remain within the Union.”
(Left Foot Forward, January 2012)

“Darling – whose reputation was enhanced after he warned of the looming global economic meltdown in defiance of then PM Gordon Brown – said he was determined to make a positive case for Scotland remaining in the UK.”
(Sunday Mail interview with former Chancellor of the Exchequer, January 2012)

“Questions abound. How will the campaign be structured? Who will lead it? And can it develop a positive case for the United Kingdom?”
(David Torrance, commentator and author, January 2012)

“I have a positive vision for Scotland.”
(Johann Lamont, Scottish Labour leader, January 2012)

“Everyone wants to see positive arguments for the Union, and we will have these in spades.”
(Murdo Fraser, Conservative MSP, January 2012)

“I am not going to run a campaign that says Scotland cannot survive on its own. I am going to run a campaign — and others will run a campaign — about the advantages of being together. Let’s have a positive conversation, because I think the Union is a very positive thing.”
(David Cameron, UK Prime Minister, January 2012)

“There is a positive case for the Union.”
(Gerry Hassan, Scottish political commentator, January 2012)

“We are likely to see the likes of Labour’s Alistair Darling, the Liberal Democrats’ Charles Kennedy and the Tories’ Annabel Goldie playing leading roles in putting a positive case for the Union.”
(Leader in The Scotsman, January 2012)

“My ten tartan rules for success: 1. Make the positive case for the Union.”
Peter Duncan, former Conservative MP for Galloway, January 2012

“The Unionist case needs a Scottish and non-party political voice that will sell a positive narrative.”
(Lee Reynolds, Director of Strategy, Democratic Unionist Party, January 2012)

“It is absolutely essential that the pro-Union forces articulate a convincing and positive case for the continuation of the Union in the 21st Century. Those of us who wish to see Scotland and its people remain as fellow citizens in a United Kingdom must both articulate the benefits which the Union has brought to Scotland and provide a positive vision for the future continuation of the Union.”
(Tom Elliott, leader of the Ulster Unionist Party, January 2012)

“Add these deeply serious warnings [about debt, banks, subsidy etc] to the positive case for maintaining a union which has served the English and Scottish people well for 300 years and Mr Cameron has an irresistible argument.”
(Daily Mail editorial leader, January 2012)

“Does the Prime Minister agree with me that we must make the case for the Union – not simply against separatism, but the positive case about the shared benefits to us all of Scotland’s part in the United Kingdom?”
(Ed Miliband, leader of the Labour Party, January 2012)

“Politicians are much given to talking – as Mr Cameron did yesterday – about ‘a positive case for the Union’ and commentators (I’m one of them) have been asking for the same thing for some time.”
(Andrew McKie, conservative commentator, January 2012) [paywall link]

“Politics is about emotion as well as simple accountancy. So as well as making the economic case for staying in the United Kingdom, we also need to tell a better, more positive story for Scotland’s future to compete with the SNP’s narrative of nationalism.”
(Douglas Alexander, Labour Shadow Foreign Secretary, January 2012)

“As we get closer to the referendum, people will realise that staying within the Union has substantial benefits for Scotland.” (benefits not specified)
(James Kelly, Labour MSP, December 2011) (at 4m 20s)

“We’ve got a distinctive argument to make on the power of Scotland inside the United Kingdom.”
(Johann Lamont, Labour leadership contender, December 2011) (at 23m 08s)

“The starting point is that we are equal nations choosing to come together and that equality means we in Scotland can make demands in a claim of right for the powers and responsibilities that we want. Beyond that however we need to describe the positive advantages of being part of a new United Kingdom.”
(Malcolm Chisholm, Labour MSP, November 2011)

“[the proponent for independence] deserved to win, because he did the thing which usually wins a debate: he asked the question which mattered, and didn’t get a satisfactory response. And the question was this: what is the positive case for the Union?”
(Andrew McKie, conservative political commentator, November 2011)

“The bigger challenge with Alex Salmond, in my view, is […] about addressing the political strategy he has been successful around. It is about making a positive case of Scotland in the UK and I can make that case.”
(Johann Lamont, then-prospective Scottish Labour leader, November 2011)

“Scottish Labour needs to develop its vision of a devolved, confident Scotland and make its case for a vote against independence with a positive alternative.”
(Mike Robb, Labour Hame, November 2011)

“We really need someone who can articulate a positive vision for Scotland, and sell it to the people of Scotland.”
(John Ruddy, Labour Hame, November 2011)

“The Scottish Conservatives have a huge responsibility, to Scotland and the United Kingdom, to make the positive case for the Union”
(Ruth Davidson, Scottish Conservative leader, October 2011)

“We will need to make that very positive argument in the next few years; the very human, very individual benefit of the United Kingdom.”
(Willie Rennie, Scottish Liberal Democrats leader, October 2011)

“I am determined, along with a new Scottish Labour leader when that person is chosen, to make that positive case for the union”
(Ed Miliband, Labour Party leader, September 2011)

“A clear vision of and a positive case for the Union needs to be developed”
(John Curtice, Professor of Politics, University of Strathclyde, May 2011)

“Voters should be inspired by being offered a positive case for the Union”
(David Cameron, Conservative Party leader, now UK Prime Minister, April 2007)

“We have got to show the positive case for the Union”
(Gordon Brown, former Chancellor and Prime Minister, January 2007)

“We have left unargued the essential case for the Union, because we do not believe that most British people need to be persuaded of it.”
(Editorial in The Spectator, February 1979)

———————————————————————————————-
TIME ELAPSED: 32 years, 3 months
ACTUAL SIGHTINGS OF POSITIVE CASE FOR UNION TO DATE: 0
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“I’m beginning to wonder if there is a positive case for the Union at all.”
(Iain Macwhirter, Sunday Herald)