Future tense
Yesterday’s Telegraph contained another example of something we’ve noticed becoming increasingly common in newspapers recently where Scottish independence is concerned – the incredible vanishing story. Check out these first two paragraphs from a piece about investment in the oil industry:
Just hold on a second, there, tiger. In the first sentence we’re apparently talking quite explicitly about something that IS ALREADY happening, but by the second sentence it’s immediately been downgraded to a “risk” and a “fear” that it “will be” happening in the future. We’re used to drastic and frequent revisions of UK government forecasts, but they usually take more than a single breath to collapse.
We’re endlessly told that the oil business is “volatile”, but that’s ridiculous.
Of course, it’s not the first shonky forecast we’ve had in the field. Much of the UK government’s doom-and-gloom analysis of an independent Scotland’s economy is pinned on an Institute for Fiscal Studies report which in turn was based on downbeat Office for Budget Responsibility predictions of the price and production levels of oil. But the OBR doesn’t exactly have an unblemished track record with regard to the industry.
Here it is in the Telegraph in March 2011:
and, um, here’s the same paper nine months later:
(Click the images for the stories.)
The No campaign relies on the people of Scotland having no memory of anything that’s ever happened in the past, whether it’s over decades or a couple of years or even last week. (We highlighted a particularly fine example yesterday.) Some of us, however, are taking notes and keeping records. We’re annoying that way.
There’s a destructive wee throwaway line in an unattributed little piece in today’s Herald suggesting continuing falls in North Sea oil production. Anybody got the facts?
I should add that I believe that if we can successfully point out that Scotland is NOT reliant on oil revenues and is self supporting without them we easily win the vote.
‘There is a risk that investment we’re trying to encourage will now be paused,’ he told an audience of oil and gas executives at an event at Chatham House. ‘My fear is that it will pause investment.’
That’s good. It’s money that will accrue to a Scottish treasury in the near future.
Meanwhile, I’d prefer it if London stopped selling off Scotland’s assets until after the referendum has been decided.
It’s why we used to call the papers, the morra’s chip wrappers.
While we’re discussing what they published today, the MSM have forgotten it and moved on to the next deadline.
While we discuss their often meaningless padding, they’ve forgotten what they said, or what they meant, and they are on to tomorrow’s headline.
For sure they don’t like the scrutiny they are now under. Hence their reaction to critical bloggers.
Hang on a minute! I thought they were 110% convinced it was going to be a No vote? How often have we been told we’re wasting our time, it’s a foregone conclusion, and (for example) all that’s left to do is bayonet the wounded?
I think that’s the really interesting admission in the piece. They’re not sure of winning at all. (As if we didn’t know, but it’s nice to have it confirmed.)
It’s less than eight months away now. So how long can they keep up this “oh the uncertainty” schtick anyway? I suppose if the polls shift decisively to Yes, that would stop the uncertainty too.
The UK Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) have the real story here:
https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/249323/production_projections.pdf
According to them, oil production could increase by 50% by next year.
Oh dear, there’s a risk that investment will now be paused, which has led to his fear that it will pause investment. Investment, if it is paused, leads to fear. The pausing of investment is fearful. Paused investment is something to fear. Paused investment. Paused investment. Fear. Fear. Risks. Fear. Paused. Press pause. Press paws. Paws in vest? Mint! Fear fi fo fum, I smell the blood of a sweaty Jock daring to vote Yes and cut off our supply of easy oil revenues from the North Sea. Who wants to play a game of Risk?
Sorry, not quite sure what that was.
“However, the [oil] region’s long-term prospects arguably hang on whether Scotland remains in the UK.”
I guess that’s because Scots would simply copy Westminster policy and blow all the license fee income and tax revenues raised over the next 40 years? Possibly end up with nothing to show for it – like now.
What else could the Telegraph possibly mean by this?
It’s nonsense anyway. How uncertain can it possibly be when the Scottish Government has said it would make no changes to the taxation regime on the oil and gas industry without full consultation with industry groups? That’s a rather better arrangement than the UK Government currently operate so you’d think at worst the industry bodies would be spectacularly uninterested in the debate.
I too would like to see a moratorium on new licences being issued. I have a powerful suspicion this is the UK Government milking the system as much as they can get away with before independence. They might say they aren’t preparing for the possibility of independence, but their words and their actions seem not to tie up very closely.
Trouble is, legally they can issue licences all they like until post yes vote negotiations start. Because until then it’s their water.
The latest OBR report has given up on trying to forecast Oil and Gas production and instead states that production levels for 2013-14 (which have taken a major hit due to the investment dip caused by the treasury tax grab and instances of unscheduled maintenance) will continue unchanged at this low level for the foreseeable future.
Despite, of course, the fact that the industry body is predicting a significant recovery in production levels.
In the meantime…has the Record changed its attitude towards Indy?
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/record-view-gloves-fight-fairness-3065872
“THE poll which shows the gap between either side of the referendum debate narrowing sent a torpedo running towards the Better Together campaign”
Some of us, however, are taking notes and keeping records. We’re annoying that way.
LOL, Brilliant!
Malcolm Webb, Chief Executive of trade group, Oil & Gas UK said just yesterday…
“We now have a two-speed North Sea. On the one hand, we have seen tremendously strong development activity from a small number of large, highly robust projects, plus a greater number of smaller ones, only made commercial by targeted reductions in unsustainably high tax rates.”
(Source: http://tinyurl.com/nb4fj4x)
He also said on Radio Scotland yesterday that there was between 20 & 24 billion barrels of known oil reserves in the North Sea. Remember that it was retired numbers guru, Alistair Darling who said last year that there was only 2 billion barrels left.
So the industry is pointing fingers straight at the UK Government for implementing a tax regime which is deliberately hurting the economic viability of expensive to drill oil & gas wells.
The uncertainty then is not coming from a country that considers independence in 2014 but from the very British government that is currently responsible for issuing licenses and taxing those that seek them.
Lets deal in political certainties
A ComRes poll for the Independent has Labour lead cut to just 1 point over the Tories.
The bookies money is now on the Tories to win in 2015.
With Tory ministers telling more porkies over North Sea oil and the prospect of another Tory government at Westminster it is clear what the choices are for Scots.
Only a YES vote can realise the benefits of North Sea revenues for Scotland, otherwise the UK Treasury will rob us blind again.
These guys just get more like Roger irrelevant everyday(“He’s Completely Hatstand”) – a young man with a very strange mental problem where he continually produces irrelevant and surreal streams of language and behaviour.In one strip, Roger throws a lamp from the roof of a house after a long, impassioned (and obviously unsuccessful) plea for the lamp not to commit suicide. On another occasion he decides to elope with an armchair, declaring it is pregnant with his children. Another time sees him disrupting the funeral of a relative by dragging the corpse out of the coffin and – employing a Brooklyn accent and emulating a character from a Mickey Spillane novel – aggressively questioning the deceased about some stolen goods.His parents seem to be very understanding and merely politely request that he stops his behaviour. These are the only times that Roger manages to show any sign of interaction with real people, although usually it is only in the form of saying things like “wibble wibble.” (dictionary.com attributes this nonsense-word to Roger; see External Links below.) “Frisnit” and “z’goft” are two of Roger’s other favourite words
@Vincent McDee
Surely it must be occurring to the Daily Record that most of their readers are planning to vote for indy, regardless of their party affiliations?
The Sales folk will know what that means, even if Torcuil doesn’t! After all, he was still insisting there would be NO referendum until the final moment it was announced!
Vincent: I think the Daily Record are softening to indy because they’re playing to a Labour readership, and are slowly (oil-tanker turning circle slowly) waking up to what Labour voters actually care about in Scotland (i.e. not SLab’s agenda).
No-one in the world will have any interest in making profit from Scottish oil after independence.
Choosy-trade capitalism.
Like fair-trade but different.
It’s all dependent on a) the actual tax rate and b) if the tax rate changes after you’ve done your financial planning for the year – and also c) if there’s a real risk to your people and infrastructure (severe civil unrest etc)though you might look at where the oil industry DOES do business to put your mind at rest on that one.
Well, there’s no question that production is in long-term decline – that’s simply the nature of geology. The all-time peak was in 1999, at around 4.6 million barrels per day. The peak production for 2013 was around 2.1 mbpd, and typical decline rates are between 5% and 10% per annum. See, for example, UK North Sea oil production decline on OilVoice.
Decline is an inevitable geological fact. There’s only so much oil in the ground, and we extracted the most easily available oil first. The basic principles have been well understood since M. King Hubbert’s work in the 1950s. Improved extraction and recovery technology has complicated the picture somewhat, but the underlying principles remain sound.
O/T Asset Scotland has some really interesting and horrifying information on ‘Scottish Assets’ this one in particular (taken from their Twitter feed) horrified me this morning
‘Scottish taxpayers will contribute at least £90,642,000 to ‘Watchkeeper’ drones, £4,969,000 last year alone http://bit.ly/1dSgpjc
Lets say we take this uncertainty at face value. Surely the solid prospect of a yes would remove any uncertainty, therefor by pure logic those unionists should change their minds.
But then again there’s the underlying assumption that oil companies actually care which government they deal with and of course the UK government are the good guys. in fact their only interest is in allowing a bit of forward planning, otherwise they don’t give a toss.
As we all know, oil exploration is inherently uncertain, you might find some , you might not, who you have to pay for the rights is the easy bit.
I’ve posted this here before, but it is worth repeating.
The SSAS polls have always been misleading for independence support since they began.
By referencing the two bogeymen, Europe and separation, for the indy options. By being multiple choice.
Also, by the simple act of describing tax raising and spending powers, even though the SP already has them, it gives the illusion that some form of devomax is on offer rather than just the status quo.
it also has no indy option for those who are undecided on Europe.
The poll has therefore always produced significantly less support for ‘independence’ than obtained in straight yes/no questions.
Pre credit crunch/bank bail out it was 20%+ lower (that is 20%+ of the electorate lower) a bit less than that since, about 15-20% less.
@Doug Daniel
Who wants to play a game of Risk?
Just don’t get stuck with your back to the wall at Kamchatka!
“Only Labour can win this battle for the UK and they have to run up a red flag for Scotland and sail under it. If that is a different banner from the rest of the UK, so be it.”
Reading between the lines, what the Record is actually saying is
‘JoLa if ye dinna come up wi something credible at the SLAB Spring Conference….then we’re off to join YES with most of our readership’.
Unless JoLa can produce a miracle I suspect LFI will start getting more space in the Record and an increased membership.
Uncertainty is terrifying to the people who run oil companies; they simply won’t deal with nations where they can’t be sure of the future. That’s why they only operate in paragons of stability like Nigeria, Iraq, and Libya.
Labour, the people who are in politics for social justice
Who said the Daily Record isnt funny?
Its their oil all right and its going to be virtually impossible for them to give it up to Scotland but for what its worth, Europe’s oil capital Aberdeen is booming. So whatever the liggers say about UK oil jewel in the crown and Scottish depleting/dwindling/exhausted/worthless oil, its going to be here for a long long time.
Dunc says:
‘Well, there’s no question that production is in long-term decline – that’s simply the nature of geology. The all-time peak was in 1999, at around 4.6 million barrels per day.’
Sorry but unless you know precisely, and I mean precisely, the amount of oil left in Scotland’s territorial waters, including west of Shetland and the whole west cost of Scotland then you can’t make claims like this.
Has anyone asked Energy Minister Mchael Fallon how yon Fracking Investment is getting on?
I hear they just cant wait to start drilling down south!
#NIMBY
Hi WoS people. I have been a visit to Midlands and Wales and have been out of touch due to no internet.
Lots to read up on here and other sites but I can tell you that the English Midlands are getting peed off with London rule.
I got a belly laugh response in a pub in Lichfield with the descriptor of the UK.
“Four countries ruined by one city”
At the very kick off of this campaign a back in early 2012 we had Osborne, Alexander and Moore all hinting that they knew that business was not going to invest in Scotland because of “uncertainty” *woman screams in the background* They were quite adamant and clear about this. It wasn’t a guess business leaders had told. Thus suggesting that business leaders spoke to people like them and not oiks like the Scottish Government. What happened? We had the best year for inward investment since the inception of Holyrood.
I’m going to take a rain check on anything these ultra maroon highland dancers say.
“Meanwhile, I’d prefer it if London stopped selling off Scotland’s assets until after the referendum has been decided.”
Agreed Jimbo – good point.
It won’t happen – but calling a halt to selling off assets til after the referendum would be welcome.
e.g. the sell-off of Student Debt last year:
“Mr Willetts said this was not a “one-off asset” like shares in an industry that was being privatised.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-25729237
@TheGreatBaldo
“Only Labour can win this battle for the UK and they have to run up a red flag for Scotland and sail under it. If that is a different banner from the rest of the UK, so be it.”
I noticed this too, the problem of course is they are literally (and otherwise) a one nation party. But the Record is effectively telling them to say one thing in public (rUK) and another thing in public (Scotland).
At some point that’s got to fall apart.
According to today’s Scottish express Britain is in for an extra 200 billion from North Sea oil meanwhile to Scotland that would be a 200 billion liability that would sink us.
If you look at the investment around Aberdeen and the shire at the moment, with a huge number of brand new offices, business parks, residential and other developments starting up all over the place, I don’t think the oil companies are worried in the slightest, about the possibility of Scottish independence.
Someone is worried, however. Very worried.
o/t Seems that Britain is booming, however if these figures are based on GPD and inflation is higher than the growth that they are all excited about, surely there is minus growth?
“Sorry, not quite sure what that was.”
A blaw oot on the moterway like that widnae be funny,
wach how you go there Doug.
watch!
A welcome development is that many oil-related companies in the Aberdeen area are now successfully marketing their expertise around the world, very far from the North Sea!
I have been critical of Torcuil in the past but I was in getting my haircut yesterday and read the Record for once and I thought his piece on the double page spread on the ICM poll was far more balanced and nuanced than in previous pieces I have seen by him. It seems to me that the Record is gearing not so much to support a vote for Yes but to put pressure on Labour to get their Devo max proposals out with a warning that they had better be good.
@Rev Stu
“Some of us, however, are taking notes and keeping records. We’re annoying that way.”
If you were somewhat cynical about the MSM’s approach to the referendum, you would speculate that that is the exact reason the cybernats are hated so much…
““However, the [oil] region’s long-term prospects arguably hang on whether Scotland remains in the UK.”
I would have thought it was obvious,
if Scotland goes independent, then we will not be within the warm boso of the motherly UK and as a result tempreatures in Scotland will plummet into a new ice age, now, when that happens the oil under the sea (which willl then be under a mile of ice with become more viscous or in oil industry parlance gloopy.
Now have you ever tried to sook up gloopy oil?
no it cant be done so the oil will run out until we see sense and return to mother UK’s warm bosom and only then with the ice age come to and end and the oil will flow again,
simples 🙂
Of course anything from Westminster is bullshit. if anyone really wants to know what’s happening the oil and gas industry in the UK then read this:
http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/cmsfiles/modules/publications/pdfs/EC030.pdf
… a periodical from the industry itself which is quite an easy read in chunks and contains a lot of positives, especially good when arguing with uninformed NOs.
The Telegraph article says further down:
“The Treasury have said Mr Salmond’s claim that there is £1.5 trillion of oil and gas left in the North Sea. [But] it also assumes there is no cost of extracting it”.
No it doesn’t! It is a simple claim that there is £1.5 trillion of oil and gas left in the North Sea. It doesn’t say anything about the cost of extraction. These Business News Editors in the MSM must be either really stupid, or spinning a line. Or both.
It gets worse:
“Despite Mr Fallon’s warning, consultancy Wood Mackenzie has forecast that 14 new fields with the capacity to produce 438m barrels of oil equivalent will be brought on stream by the industry in 2014″.
These oil firms and private businesses just won’t do as they’re told, will they? They just keep on not heeding our warnings of doom and gloom.
The Record might be waiting a while, there is no chance of Devo Max happening.Ever.
As for it turning to Yes? No chance I’m afraid. Expect more teasing and ooing and aaaaing about scots indy, but they will go down with the union.
Follow up to last post.
First, slight correction, the SSAS poll spells out Tax raising powers on one of the SP options. Spending powers, which of course, like tax raising powers, the SP always has had was also spelled out in another wise similar ICM survey question of the time. My mistake.
But what I want to show, to clarify the point in my last post, is a couple of polling summaries which illustrate the difference I’m talking about.
First, the straight y/n type polls summarized up to 2006 (pre Credit Crunch)
https://www.dropbox.com/s/oti2u2d9of1uxdc/YNIndyPolls1.jpg
These were very successfully ‘buried’ by the Unionist cabal to the point where hardly anyone knew about them.
Next the SSAS polling summary taken from the UKpollingreport. Note that even they are confused by the spelling out of tax raising powers. They label the columns ‘Tax Raising Powers’ and ‘Status Quo’ when clearly this is wrong (removing tax raising powers cannot be Status Quo).
https://www.dropbox.com/s/y9jsqm89sketzmq/SSASpollsummary.JPG
Funnily enough, the SSAS results have had a lot of MSM exposure.
A wee word to the wise for the British Broadcasting Corporation inScotland, Labour inScotland and msm inScotland, we actually have satellite and broadcasting receivers and interwebby thingy connections and we can, and do, pick up rUK and international news.
Ergo, we know when yer spoutin pish.
The trouble is that Labour can theoretically promise practically anything they like before the referendum, then renege afterwards.
Anyone care to list all the failed attempts at getting a Scottish home rule or devolution bill through Westminster in the past 100 years? It’s a piece of cake to sabotage something like that. They could even produce a fantastic proposal as a bill, then insist it had to be voted for in a whole-UK referendum.
You’d think Scots would be wise to that one by now, but a lot of people who remember 1979 are dead now.
In December the Office for National Statistics listed the top ten UK exports, whisky sitting at tenth with exports of £3.11bn. On Saturday the Herald had an article on university principals’ salaries.and within the article advised that Scottish universities generated £6.7bn to the Scottish economy in the reporting period 2011/2012 plus exports of £1.3bn.The First Minister declared at FM Q’s that Scotland produces 7 times its domestic oil and gas requirements. And then of course there is the electrical power generation where Scotland is charged to supply to the Grid whilst southern England producers are subsidised.
Anyone stating that Scotland is not financially self-sufficient either isn’t paying attention or is lying.Come independence and the facts are uncovered I reckon many people will be angered as they learn just how unfairly treated Scotland has been treated over the decades.
This guy Fallon, what does he know about the oil and gas industry?
O/T
SLIDEING UNDER THE DOOR.
There,s high,s n low,s
and some Dont Know,s
and SLAB crawling under the door.
Their snake,s on Skate,s
like rotten fish
you kin smell their pish
whaffti under the door.
Noo the Tory,s ur no any better
Cameroon wont engage
he say,s it,s only fur Scot,s tae decide
then he slip,s a daily mail
under the door.
Their,s them that wuld blabber, ower much
and much to oor dis May
but come Sept
the Skate has ditched them awe aff its back
n blabber mooth wie crystal baws on es erse
and the Skate slid under the door.
Skate,s hey WINGS dont ya Know.
@jingly jangly
The GDP that usually gets talked about is nominal GDP. If the number gets bigger that’s growth.
Taking inflation into account gives you real GDP, or at least one definition of real, and that’s a better measure of what the economy feels like. Better still is real GDP per capita, taking population growth into account.
These all take the nation as a whole though, and since most of the growth that is happening is in London and the south-east, they don’t necessarily tell you much about places outside that sainted region.
tartanfever:
OK, “all-time peak to date“. Happy?
It’s not really a question of the total amount that’s left – what matters is the rate at which you can extract it. We’re currently spending more that ever before on recovery, and yet extraction rates continue to fall – and that fall appears to be accelerating (as expected). I suppose we can’t entirely exclude the possibility of a new giant field like the Forties being discovered, but since that was one of the very first oil fields discovered in the North Sea, and remains the largest ever discovered in the region, I really wouldn’t want to bet on it.
@ Morag,
A lot of people who remember 1979 were dead then too – thats the way the votes were counted.
Oooh, I walked straight into that….
@vincent Mc Dee 11.56
Sowe can exspect the D R to print positive story,s from now on Wriggle Wriggle Wriggle did the Wee Wrigglie Worm.
Dunc.”I really wouldn’t want to bet on it”
Don’t know about that Dunc. Here are just a couple of stories of new finds in the Norwegian sector in the last couple of years. There are several more. Strange how the good news just keeps on coming from Norway. Compared to the “volatile, diminishing, wasting assett” crap we’re offered from UKOK.
http://www.newsinenglish.no/2011/08/16/statoil-strikes-more-oil-in-north-sea/
http://www.newsinenglish.no/2013/04/22/accident-led-to-new-oil-discovery/
Alex Salmond & Scottish Gov, should issue a statement, to
the UK Gov, that all Gas Oil exploration licence,s, issued between now and SEPT 18th,by UK Gov,WILL BE REVOKED.
@ Jimsie,Seasick Dave ur you,s takin note the Daily Record
are makin Paper Boat,s & inviting the Labour Party on
board. HIV you,s no finnished painting that Stealth Boat
in Watter colours yet.
“and yet extraction rates continue to fall – and that fall appears to be accelerating (as expected).”
Not quite so.
Oil and Gas UK Economic Report 2013 states that from a low of 1.4million boepd in 2013 production is expected to be similar in 2014 before improving again, potentially rising towards 2.0million boepd in 2017.
We all know it’s a finite resource but let’s leave the doom and gloom scenarios up to the ‘only 2billion barrels left’ brigade.
Here’s the latest Report that MochaChoca mentioned …
website
http://www.oilandgasuk.co.uk/2013-economic-report.cfm
and publication
https://publ.com/N6D1Taa#3
Ananurhing: yes, there are new discoveries, but no, they’re nowhere near the size of the fields discovered in the early 70s. Forties was more than 4 times larger than both of those put together.
@ Jimsie,Seasick dave, ah hiv a auld sewing machine,
ah,ll sew the mines,you,s plant them, whit,s the name of the Quay that the Daily Record sits on,
Their gone nae where,BOOM BOOM.
heart attacks awe roon at GCHQ,shush dont mention aboot the torpedos.
@dunk 2.49, where,s the report on the Firth of Clyde from the 80s & the West coast of Scotland.
MochaChoca: You need to look over more than a year or two to get a handle on decline rates, because production can vary quite significantly on a year-to-year basis, for a number of reasons that I’m not going to get into here.
I’m not plying a “doom and gloom scenario”, I’m simply saying that oil production from the North Sea is in long term decline – as all of the industry reports people keep linking to clearly say if you actually bother to read them properly. I don’t think it does us any favours to be unreasonably optimistic.
Yes, 2014 production is expected to be on a par with 2013, but that’s only because 2012 and 2011 saw massive declines.
If they convince enough people there will be more powers, we will lose.
To try to minimise that possibility, Yes needs to counter with the assertion (and a quite justified one given past history) that it will in fact be DevoMinus or perhaps recall of the SP altogether.
Of course there is volatility which is why an oil fund is considered by almost all oil producing nations to be necessary.
On average though 2.0million boepd should realistically generate revenues of £10bn to £12bn annually and at that extraction rate the current estimate of recoverable reserves (20-24bn boe) would last 28-33 years.
@ Morag
Until 1979, I’d never had a good reason to vote Labour.
Since 1979, I’ve always had a good reason for never voting Labour…
and never will.
MochaChoca: I certainly agree that we can continue to generate very significant revenues from oil and gas production for years (indeed decades) to come. However, I don’t think there’s any chance of maintaining current production rates. The historical decline rate over the last decade averages out at about 10% per annum, and to change that significantly would require either new discoveries of a size that hasn’t been seen in 50 years, or an incredibly radical innovation in recovery techniques.
There will be new discoveries. Recovery techniques will continue to improve. However, these factors are highly unlikely to be sufficient to offset the long term decline of the existing super-giant fields.
The original question, up there in the very first post, was whether it is true that North Sea oil production is in continuing decline. That’s all I’ve been trying to answer, and I’m afraid the answer is unequivocally “yes”. It’s not the end of the world, but if anybody imagines that we’re going to get back to the production rates of the late 1990s, they’re living in cloud cuckoo land.
That oil is running out is beyond dispute. Indeed, that was beyond dispute when the first barrel was taken out of the ground.
The World is, and always has, since we started using it, been running out of oil.
The question in terms of what it is worth to Scotland is how long will it last and what will it be worth?
In the end game, oil will be worth a massive amount, not as a fuel for burning, except perhaps for aviation, but as a basis of the plastics industry.
By then, vehicles will either be powered by hydrogen (IC or Fuel cell) or organically produced fuel (alcohol or hydrogen probably from GM algaes) or will be powered by electricity stored in something like the St Andrews Air cell.
Sources for electricity will be multifarious. Ultimately, electricity will be produced by completely safe fusion reactors, or by nearly completely safe hybrid reactors.
By then, our descendants will think we were crazy to burn oil to heat things, produce electricity or power internal combustion engines.
Yes, I’m aware of the long term decline in production. But aside from a couple of years mid-1980’s when production was huge the actual revenues generated have been highest in more recent years (2008-09 and 2011-12) where high oil prices replaced high productivity to generate large revenues. The oil price may or may not continue at this level, some forecasts say it will drop back to around $97 some say it will stay high or indeed increase.
I suppose the point I’m making is that, yes, it will decline and in 20, 30, or 50 years it will run out, but we have the chance to make the most of what is still the vast resource that’s left.
I’ve no disagreement there.
Left in the grund it’s future investment 🙂
But yes, to go back to the question.
Continuing fall? if the decline were to continue at it’s current rate, production will completely cease around 2018 (or sooner if the decline were to accelerate)
I’m pointing out that the industry body are predicting a (temporary) reversal of decline which will coincide with the early years of independence.
No, it wouldn’t. Assuming a 10% decline rate, production would approximately half every 7 years or so. It’s like compound interest, but in reverse.
If only we knew the size of the fields on the west coast.
Coming from darkest Lanarkshire I do not know a lot about the oil industry but I had the pleasure of visiting the maritime museum in Aberdeen the other week.
There I saw a poster that claimed “The International Agency’s projections put the price of oil at almost $250 per barrel in 2035. (Source House of Commons Report, 2013)”
I take great delight in showing the photo of it I took to naysayers that tell me the price of oil could fall.
OT but just back from the Herald site – why I bother I know not – Jackson Carlaw has announced his idiocy to the world by condemning the choice of the Golden eagle as the national bird of Scotland. Apparently it is a symbol of the Nazis.
I did try to point out that many countries have the magnificent eagle as an emblem – some of them prefer bald ones.
Needless to say my suggestion that the man was stupid has prevented publication but the redoubtable Doctors suggestion, that the Tory party in Scotland should adopt the dodo as their emblem, is there for all to see.
Given the relentless negativity of the No campaign, I’m sure they would rather have the Grouse.
The only negative affect on the Oil sector is the 11% (£2Billion) a year increased Oil tax revenues (2010 Budget) to 60% to 80%. The Oil Producers are investing at high levels but this increased taxation could affect North Sea Production. Killing off the Goose that lays the Golden egg, costing jobs. Danny Alexander laughed at the tax increase. Workers are being killed in the Oil industry because the UK gov is not enforcing Health & Safety Laws. Thankfully in September a YES vote will stop the negative influence of Westminster, on the Oil industry.
Multinationals (foreign) are tax evading through the City of London. This is against fair competion rules and damages British business.
There is also the possibility of Oil reserves on the West coast of Scotland.
World Oil price is on EuroNews every hour daily. – 106
Why would this pose a problem to Scotland anyway? Oil does not have a best before date, so all else being equal, less investment now means less oil extracted, which consequently means more oil for an independent Scotland to extract.
Given that the referendum is less than a year away, it is implausible to imagine that investment will be reduced to such an extent to necessitate the decommissioning of oilfields and dismantling of infrastructure, which is surely the real danger posed by lack of investment.
If the DR pushes SLAB into mouthing about DevoMax what will happen SLAB supporters get into the polling booth and are confronted with
“Should Scotland be an Independent country?”
YES
NO
No mention of DevoMax – which way do you think they will vote? Status quo or worse if they vote NO. Full powers if they vote YES. Of course they will also, at the point of viewing the ballot paper, realise that Labour have lied to them again!!
Dunc, a graph of the last 9 years production projected down would hit zero at about 2018. In percentage terms it has been accelerating. The forecast from Oil and Gas UK shows this graph flattening then an upturn.
In the Press & Journal printed in Aberdeen, all week its had interviews and comments from leading oil and gas companies criticising the uk governments approach to the industry, causing a drop in exploration drilling and companies withdrawing from the North Sea. How to run an industry into the ground, the new best seller from .gov.uk in a book store near you.
While the Norwegian fields are expanding