Contenders ready
The Sunday Herald ran an extraordinary article on page 2 yesterday, and by the time we’d finished being startled by what nonsense it was, it set us wondering about why.
The piece triggered a demented, vitriolic outburst on social media from the founder of a semi-well-known Scottish website, furiously and bizarrely demanding apologies from a number of pro-independence sites which had – entirely correctly – warned that the SNP ran the real risk of losing its Holyrood majority at last year’s election, despite the Herald’s and the blogger’s repeated insistence that it definitely wouldn’t.
The newspaper had run a controversial story making the assertion last April, falsely claiming that the ubiquitous psephologist and academic Professor John Curtice had advised Yes supporters to give their list votes to smaller pro-independence parties at the following month’s election rather than the SNP.
But the piece had been rather light on any actual quotes to that effect – not to mention somewhat out of character for the Prof’s careful political neutrality – and when we asked the respected analyst if the Herald’s report had accurately represented his views, he suggested they’d been somewhat exaggerated.
So we were a bit surprised to see the paper repeat the trick yesterday.
“Indy supporters who voted Green did not help Unionists or harm SNP, says academic
TACTICAL voting for the Greens by SNP supporters in 2016 increased the number of pro-independence MSPs rather than boosting Unionist numbers at Holyrood, the first major report on last year’s election has found.”
Did it? That might come as a surprise to keen followers of arithmetic, who may have noted that the number of pro-independence MSPs actually FELL in 2016 – from 72 to 69 – rather than increasing, despite pro-independence parties getting a fractionally higher share of the vote (up from 49% in 2011 to 49.4% in 2016).
The Herald’s piece goes on to make another claim about the views of Professor Curtice which don’t seem to be supported – indeed, appear to be contradicted – by his actual words.
“Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde, said that if there had not been such tactical voting there would have been fewer pro-independence MSPs.”
Did he say that? Let’s look for the quote:
“Curtice said: “It is evident that the apparent tactical switching in favour of the Greens had less impact on the SNP’s overall tally than the party’s failure to win seven constituency seats that it might have been expected to have won.””
That very much appears to be Professor Curtice saying that tactical switching to the Greens DID in fact damage the SNP (he goes on to suggest that it cost the Nats two seats, and with them their majority), but not as much as failing to take some target constituency seats. As with in 2016, the professor has said something that’s perfectly true, but has been distorted into a false headline and then misrepresented in the text.
The report was conducted for the Electoral Reform Society Scotland, most of whose senior executives are on public record as wanting the SNP to be either deprived of its majority or completely destroyed, and whose motivation in producing such studies is therefore fairly clear and open.
But no amount of spin can dodge those inconvenient bare numbers – in 2016 the list vote share for pro-independence parties increased, but was more split than in 2011 – just as the Sunday Herald and others had demanded – yet the number of pro-indy MSPs went down.
So far so fishy, then. But at the start of this article we said we’d wondered why the Sunday Herald would poke a stick in this particular hornet’s nest again after the angry reaction it provoked last time (since when its circulation has taken a 25% dive), and we’ve only come up with one possible explanation – it’s expecting another election.
For the last week or two the news-starved Scottish press has featured quite a bit of low-level muttering about the imminent budget vote. The SNP needs at least one of the opposition parties to either back the budget or abstain on it to get it through, and so far all four are sabre-rattling from positions that are difficult to back down from.
The Tories want the Nats to abandon plans to implement changes to the income-tax threshold that would see higher earners pay slightly more tax than their counterparts in England and Wales. Labour and the Greens, conversely, say they’ll vote against the budget if it doesn’t increase taxes more in order to pay for public services.
The Lib Dems, meanwhile, appear in today’s Times to threaten that they’re prepared to bring the government down if it doesn’t accede to their demands for an extra £500m in spending, although they don’t specify where the money should come from.
Now, for what it’s worth, this site’s view is that one of the opposition parties will blink before the Scottish Government does. The Tories would almost certainly be happy to fight another election and so would the SNP, while the Lib Dems probably fancy their chances of a slight bounce from their Brexit stance.
Labour and the Greens, however, have far more to lose. Labour would be fighting from a position of having lost a third of its support since last May, and the Greens might find SNP supporters considerably less inclined to lend them a second vote this time round. Neither Kezia Dugdale nor Patrick Harvie and that other one nobody can ever remember have much prospect of worthwhile gains, and both could find themselves rather shorter on MSPs after a snap election – voters tend not to reward parties who bring down governments.
(The Greens, of course, are already in the best position they can ever hope to achieve from an election – being able to take the governing party from a minority to a majority. Even in the unlikely event of winning a few extra seats they’d be materially no better off, and the very real chance of losing that “kingmaker” status would be a high risk for no meaningful potential reward.)
But with the semi-exception of the Lib Dems, the opposition are digging themselves in pretty deep. While nobody would be in the least bit surprised to see Labour ultimately abstain on something again, it’s at least possible that the budget deadlock of 2009 – which was swiftly resolved when they, the Tories and the Lib Dems backed down in return for minor face-saving concessions – could go a step further and send Scots to the polling stations for the eighth time in six years.
In that event, the “tactical voting” campaign of the far left will want to have its troops ready to go again. And since this time it’s going to be a lot harder to sell the idea that a split vote is safe because the SNP will get a majority anyway, it makes sense that they’d want to get a head start.
How popular would the LibDems be if they dragged Scotland to the polls again unnecessarily? Can’t believe they will do that, and the Greens would surely back down before triggering another election.
Sometimes though I am convinced this country has a death wish.
It’s the end of Bella though, surely. And a dreadful warning that the Indy movement is nearly as hubris-riddled as the Yoon side.
Glad I stopped getting the Sunday Herald after last year’s election.
Read that Sunday Herald article – mischief making and a continuation of attempts to weaken the SNP and hence Indy.
Read, digest, analyse then spit it out!
A clear binary choice, SNP or Tory.
At this stage the rest are irrelevant.
Glad I stopped reading Bella, frankly.
No problem. SNP x 2 again.
More political nonsense from the biased tax money wasters. Lining their pockets on Unionist bias. Uni department not fit for purpose. Using poor analysis and polls to influence the vote. Totally illegal and braking Purdah.. Lining their pockets with public and private money to get it wrong. Despite inquiries just getting away with it. No electoral censor for gerrymeandering and breaking the rules. Telling total lies.
Vote SNP/SNP always for better governance, especially in difficult circumstance, for the sake of vulnerable people. Curtice poor analysis is used to influence the Polls. The Polls are used to influence the vote. Public polls should be banned during the Purdah period. The MSM illegally break Purdah, without sanctions. Break the Law. The Tories committed electoral fraud in 31 constituencies. What has been done about it?
Aye but The Sunday Herald, Bella and The Green Party branch office all support independence apparently.
Well, this is one Green Warrior who’ll not be giving any support to any of the aforementioned divisionists this side of independence.
Sick to the back teeth of Patrick Harvie’s constant fight, with Willie Rennie, for King of the Me Me Me Munchkins title.
ScotsRenewables
Agreed. We often complain of Little Englanders but we have a fair number in Scotland who go further, we have Little ‘No 23 Glebe Close-rs’. Those who can’t see much beyond their own front doors.
And a fair number of folks who support a left leaning view but buy the lines coming from right wing newspapers without questions. Especially puzzling are those who say they are confused and not sure then support the Tory led UK.
Stirrers.
The next elections are the council ones… which runs under STV, which makes tactical voting perfectly safe. What they’re trying to do now is ensure that SNP voters do not give their third and fourth preferences etc to other pro-indy candidates.
Brilliant article, thankyou again.
‘..and we’ve only come up with one possible explanation – it’s expecting another election.’
Now we can see the most basic argument.
The finance minister, of WHICHEVER party, needs ALL ECONOMIC LEVERS to balance our societal and business needs.
Bringing down a government with 50% of votes and seats, in effect because their’POCKETMONEY’ has been reduced, shows that our opposition has a narrow/hidden agenda.
I read the Sunday Herald article and I don’t understand how any SNP voter with a modicum of common sense could be taken in by it, given the result of last year’s election.
The discussion re the greens is absolutely correct.
Willy Rennie ‘s threat seems hollow given I know both Lib dems and Greens in discussion with Scot Gov on the budget.
Likely scenario is a deal will redone with the Greens. A second attempt to get a budget agreement with one of these two parties probably would be attempted.
If that fails likely a new vote on FM position possible.
(Defy parties to vote in Ruth Davidson)
Only then would SNP go to the country and at this stage I fear Willie Rennie would lose his seat, and he knows it.
Now who on earth has been briefing the paper about this?
Labour..Possibly, as they have an unshakeable belief in their immortality? I stopped after that ‘coz I was laughing so much.??
Don’t trust completely the Sunday Herald. Their move could be seen as a bit opportunist at the time and they still have their Daily Herald Brits writing on Sunday.
I subscribe to the digital National, but they did push the second vote away from the SNP. The editor denied this and said he wrote an editorial on Polling Day calling for both votes. Too late. They seem obsessed with Cat Boyd,RIC/SSP/RISE for some reason, who spend all their time fighting each other, among themselves and attacking the SNP.
Not all the Greens support Independence. Former leader, Robin Harper, supported the Bitters Campaign. The Glasgow cooncillors were a mixed bunch of woolly heads. One of them resigned recently. After the Yes campaign they recruited more pro Indy members.Patrick may have some good policies, but, he can play the blackmail card too often. By being encouraged to cry wolf by the Unionist media he is danger of being swallowed up. None of his ideas are more important then Independence, without which we can achieve nothing.
I had a really hard time on the net trying to persuade Indy voters not to throw away their second vote, as it would reduce the SNP majority, which we need to move on to Independence, if that is your priority. Many were quoting some odd convoluted ideas that it would not affect the SNP majority. Most seemed to have regretted that and if the Unionists and Greens want to try any more brinkmanship then they risk being wiped out, or see a reduction in their numbers.
Maybe the SNP should call their bluff to clear the stables oot?
The threat of another IndeRef soon is bad enough, but a Holyrood election – eeuuch !
If the Greens do not support the SNP budget then they are toast and I would hope that they realise that. Unfortunately, they are not very good at strategy IMO. Last chance saloon time.
Ken500..”The Tories committed electoral fraud in 31 constituencies. What has been done about it?”
Yeah..Anyone have a timescale/process re any inquiry? Etc?
Two things jump out at me here.
Firstly Dennis Robertson did not help himself or the SNP with his ridiculous “No crisis in the oil industry ” comments that ultimately got a Tory elected in his place.
Secondly the D’hont system effect lay wastes an SNP second vote ( or at least diminishes its effect to the point it is unrepresentative)
So……..we set up a Scottish National List party.
Autonomous, but supportive of Scottish independence.
Hoover up the list votes and take advantage of the multiplier that a party with no MSPs.
Someone tell me it wouldn’t work. ????????
Divide and rule. Oldest trick in the book.
Might be far reached but if we have another election then indy2 will be the 9th in how many years? maybe they are trying to ware us out….
I watched Weary Wullie yesterday and just wondered, so remind me how many MSP’s do the Fib/Dems have, is it 4 oe 44!!!!!! Patrick and Wullie should take a look at Election result, total votes cast for SNP was more than all of the votes cast for Green, SLAB, Tory and Fib/Dem.
We can never get the re-distributive tax system we all want until we are INDEPENDENT.
Auld Rock
The reason why SNP folk were so annoyed with the tactical voting stuff was that it was built on a lie that we were GUARANTEED a majority purely on constituency votes, so people could fanny about with their list vote without having to worry about whether the SNP would need list MSPs. The election bore this out, and this report doesn’t change anything in that respect.
SNP 1 & 2 will do just fine for me.
Remember Westminster’s 1st Rule – Divide and Conquer.
Hope over fear is ours and we’ve seen through the Tory fraud.
Roll on May Council Elections, then on to 2018 Indy Ref 2,
Then on to VICTORY !
Rev. Stu. Does the Sunday Herald pose a bigger threat to Scottish Independence than the Express. Or the Daily Mail?
Unless you are a far left socialist or Green supporter then Bella isnt place for any Indy supporter, that lot are foaming at the mouth crazy , and causing splits in the movement which are doing nothing for the Yes campaign, The SNP voters that split the vote last year only gave some other indy parties a position they dont or never have deserved, in fact some who were begging for votes actually cost the independence movement, , the greens jumped on the indy bandwagon, then before last election said they wouldnt back indy unless a petition of 1 million yes voters appeared, shows how much they value it
There are two types of Yessers.
Firstly there are those, like myself, who have Indy as the priority. Once it has been achieved and democracy introduced to Scotland at all levels of government, the population will decide the direction iScotland takes.
Secondly there are those with various ideological stances as their priority who see Indy as a way to achieve their aims. For these groups, democracy is just one means to an end.
IMO the vast majority belong to the former, and a small minority to the latter.
Clearly the two groups would appear allies in that both want Indy when Indy is being actively sought. The problem is, at other times, the true priorities of the second groups rise (no pun intended) to the surface.
At this absolutely crucial time on our road to Indy, everyone in the Yes camp should be staying focused on Indy. The sad truth is, not all will.
If the Greens provoke an election right now, they will be rightly punished.
The best scenario would be for some to abstain over the budget.
Agree with Doug above. Too many SNP supporters got sucked in, and gave their 2nd vote to Greens, and now we have everything grinding down.
I wish Indy people would just get their head straight, plenty time for your voting intentions/fannying, when we are independent.
Until then, give SNP your backing to get this done.
Brewer on Sunday Politics was actually stating to Wullie Rennie that “are you sure you want to make a deal when an election could take independence off the table until 2020 at least”
More likely scenario, snap election = SNP Majority purely in constituency seats = no more fucking about appeasing the Greens.
Wullie B. I don’t recall much begging for votes. I remember plenty of self-entiled, irate demands. I had been turned off Bella long before then, when their more outspoken supporters hounded Ewan Morrison away from Yes, but the Rise pish was lamentable.
I doubt the Lib Dems have muxh to risk if there was another election…it is not as if they have much further to drop. And all three (Lab, Lib dems + greens) might like going into an election with a anti-brexit, further left agenda than SNP…now the powers exist the SNP are actually going to have to justify why they don’t use them. As for an eighth election vote in 6 years…that is only going to harm the SNP as even if in the end it make little difference to the make-up of the parliament it will certainly make indyref2 an even more unappealing prospect.
As for voting than other parties than SNP…well god forbid that some people value their other beliefs (environment, social justice, etc etc) equal to or above that of independence. It is that arrogance and monomania of the SNP echoed by its chief propagandists that will be it’s downfall
Its all posturing they would not dare bring down the Scottish government and give us a second chance to sack their asses,those with most to loose will vote to keep their cushy jobs.
The SG should tell them to put up or shut up and take a hard line on this,either way its a win win situation for them and a new election is something they should welcome,bring it on yoons if you dare.
“The next elections are the council ones”
Not necessarily…
“As for voting than other parties than SNP…well god forbid that some people value their other beliefs (environment, social justice, etc etc) equal to or above that of independence.”
Absolutely nobody has been criticised for that. Only for telling lies.
“So……..we set up a Scottish National List party.
Autonomous, but supportive of Scottish independence.
Hoover up the list votes and take advantage of the multiplier that a party with no MSPs.
Someone tell me it wouldn’t work. ????????”
I actually raised that question a couple of years ago. Theoretically it’d be perfectly plausible, however it’d need to find money from somewhere and be absolutely squeaky-clean in terms of not being connected to the SNP.
“How popular would the LibDems be if they dragged Scotland to the polls again unnecessarily?”
I don’t think the Lib Dems would be chiefly held responsible. They’re the smallest party in Parliament, why should it be down to them?
Divide, rule, and keep on lying you tory backsides off,
The Graun’s rolling Nic Sturgeon bad coverage, it’s getting awful creepy in UKOK hackdom again,
10m ago
10:12
Unfortunately, when the SNP’s Michael Russell was on the Today programme, he was not asked about an interesting story in the Times saying the SNP is thinking about abandoning full EU membership as its preferred option for an independent Scotland. Instead senior party figures are considering whether the party’s policy should be for Scotland to have a Norway-style relationship with the EU, according to the Times’ Hamish Macdonell.”
Sleazy ain’t the half of what these chancers are up to.
Clydebuilt says:10:01 am
Rev. Stu. Does the Sunday Herald pose a bigger threat to Scottish Independence than the Express. Or the Daily Mail?
Sorry to butt in, but, the answer is surely..
It depends who’s agenda the BBC prefers to ‘air’.
“It is that arrogance and monomania of the SNP echoed by its chief propagandists that will be it’s downfall”
Is there anyway of rebutting this sanely? No.
“Neither Kezia Dugdale nor Patrick Harvie and that other one nobody can ever remember have much prospect of worthwhile gains, and both could find themselves rather shorter on MSPs after a snap election – voters tend not to reward parties who bring down governments.”
I expect the Greens will compromise, but tbh I wouldn’t put it past Labour despite the obvious loses they’ll sustain to sacrifice their MSPs in an attempt to remove a pro-indy majority.
One aspect of the Holyrood voting which gets forgotten in such discussions is that a percentage of voters don’t actually understand the system! They believe it is some sort of STV vote with 1st choice, 2nd choice.
I wonder how widespread this is? Also, was this ignorance seen by some as opportunity?
Personally I regret not voting Green in NE Scotland last election. Our hundreds of thousands of list votes for the SNP achieved virtually nothing for Independence and let a bunch on second rate Tories into Holyrood.
So if an 8th time to the polls in 6 years is too much, what chances for a 9th with Indyref2? I can already hear the “Ruth Davidson for a Strong Opposition I’m more a Blairite than a Thatcherite, honest, I am” spokesperson Ruth Davidson telling us that a 9th vote would etc etc etc.
Yes, I noticed too on Facebook folk talking about the Green vote. I certainly got in there and warned about splitting the vote again with Greens/Rise whoever and advocating SNP/SNP in Holyrood elections and only SNP in council elections.
Lots of people agreed with me and seemed really annoyed with the Greens stance!
“Absolutely nobody has been criticised for that. Only for telling lies.”
Not going to get any argument that the RISE/Green numpties have been lying about the actual practical effects of their votes. However to say that you and your acolytes haven’t criticised them for “denying the SNP a majority” by voting with their conscience is “alternative fact” of Trumpian proportions…
Lots of people agreed with me and seemed really annoyed with the Greens stance!”
Green rage back at anyone pointing out things like, why are Green’s splitting up the YES vote, is also odd to watch.
heedtracker says:
30 January, 2017 at 10:25 am
Divide, rule, and keep on lying you tory backsides off,
The Graun’s rolling Nic Sturgeon bad coverage, it’s getting awful creepy in UKOK hackdom again,
10m ago
10:12
Unfortunately, when the SNP’s Michael Russell was on the Today programme, he was not asked about an interesting story in the Times saying the SNP is thinking about abandoning full EU membership as its preferred option for an independent Scotland. Instead senior party figures are considering whether the party’s policy should be for Scotland to have a Norway-style relationship with the EU, according to the Times’ Hamish Macdonell.”
The SNP cant come out and say that or they lose the right to have another referendum as the difference between Scotland and Englands intentions are gone, and I have been hearing that the SNP as it is would be lucky to hold onto Banff and Buchan now due to the pro EU stance which would mean taking on the Commons Fishery Policy, the EFTA would efectively take that off the table and makes sense to What Fergus Ewing is saying regarding Scotland dropping the CFP
…all the unionists need do is pander to the ego of those Scots, such as involved at Bella, and they will do their work for me them. Once again my fellow Scots concern themselves with division rather than unity.
The rest of us work for Independence first THEN the minor politics of shading. However many on the left and in the Green Party have to determine the shape of Scotland FIRST resulting in a delay to Independence.
Just completed an opinion survey with the usual questions on voting for independence and Brexit, and rating Scottish party leaders, but unusual in having specific questions about Gordon Brown. He was asked to be rated along with the current party leaders in Scotland and whether you would vote Labour if he was Scottish leader. Are Labour contemplating replacing Dugdale with Brown?
“However to say that you and your acolytes haven’t criticised them for “denying the SNP a majority” by voting with their conscience is “alternative fact” of Trumpian proportions…”
Really? So you can quote me saying anything to that effect, can you? Because what I actually said, over and over again, was “It’s not up to me to tell you who to vote for. Vote for whoever you want to have MSPs. There’s no such thing as a wasted vote”.
(And in practical terms RISE got so few votes they had no impact on anything.)
I agree with everything you say Rev. In fact I posted this just two days ago.
What is more concerning though is why everything as you rightly say seems too orchestrated. It is as if there is a pre conceived co-ordinated plan laid out to reduce the SNP power base via smaller groups like the Greens in addition to playing the loyalist card.
Now I always took Patrick Harvey as a shrewd guy, but I think the idea of expanding his power base is taking precedent over indy ambitions. Is he selling out?
SNP X2. No doubt about it.
“I expect the Greens will compromise, but tbh I wouldn’t put it past Labour despite the obvious loses they’ll sustain to sacrifice their MSPs in an attempt to remove a pro-indy majority.”
Actually, if I was going to have a wee sneaky bet on who was most likely to either back the budget or abstain to let it through, I’d probably put my money on the Lib Dems.
“Now I always took Patrick Harvey as a shrewd guy, but I think the idea of expanding his power base is taking precedent over indy ambitions.”
Yes, I agree. Which is of course perfectly compatible with him being “shrewd”.
If you want a big nail banged in you hit it with a big hammer that you know does the job you don’t start looking for a lot of alternative little hammers that might mibbees kinda if I hit it more times hammers
SNPX2 The rest are irrelevant and the folk who were conned by Bella and other news sites hopefully wont do that again, and especially the mysterious appearances of new “Independent” candidates (Aye right!)
The Greens have proved themselves to be exactly what they are all about, Zoomer tax business wreckers just at the time when Scotland needs business stability, the Greens are even more opportunistic than the Lib Dems for God sake, first chance they get they pull out the “hold you to ransom card” I hope Derek McKay sticks to his guns and lets them go for it and we’ll see who loses out
Stu says folk don’t like parties who bring down governments and history shows it’s true, but go for your life Patrick I for one cannae wait to watch your backbone shrink
The rest of them have no principles whatsoever on anything they just want to defeat the SNP on something so they can say they won and sod the country as long as it’s a Unionist win
Ruthie might think she’ll like it, more red Tory votes coming her way, Kezia will vanish and drown with barely a ripple left on the political pond and Wee Willies vote will remain unchanged
So all in all another good day for the SNP and a more than likely majority government, which may have been the plan all along
Who’s going to test it 3,2,1 Blink
Roboscot
That sounds as though it is a private poll being taken by Labour.
Kind of sick and tired of certain ‘voices’ who supposedly support independence, continually going out of their way to sow seeds of discontent and disagreement. Divide and conquer eh?
Kind of glad I did not donate a single penny to help Bella survive. Over the years (and I have been posting online since well before WOS, and in the early days of Newsnet) I have watched it be subsumed by people who have what I think is a rather tenuous commitment to independence – other things seem to be a priority for them, including self aggrandisement. Giving the unionists succour, and running articles that seem intentionally to seek division, and split the pro indy vote, to me is quite misplaced.
The problem is, the SNP do have mass appeal, whereas, much as many people are very enthusiastic about green policies, I personally do not think their appeal is broad enough.
When unionists start making the same arguments about voting, and splitting the pro indy vote as Bella is, in the run up to an election, then you know something is just NOT quite right. You might call it definitive.
The Sunday Herald is a classic case of “a foot in both camps”. Not to be trusted, just like the rest of them.
Someone accused me on Facebook of not wanting independence. My crime? Disagreeing that all Yessers should buy the Rectum on a Monday just cos the FM has a column in it. My argument is that it’s better to let the unionist rag die its lingering death while hopefully the FM can reach a few before the coffin lid gets nailed down.
The press up here are the enemy. Remember The Scum in 92? Ashamed to say I bought it for 5 years until they ditched us at the last minute in 97. Won’t Get Fooled Again. Ever.
Hmm…
My last posting at 1046 am,
Part of it should have read;
“The problem is, the SNP do have mass appeal, whereas, much as many people are very enthusiastic about green policies, I personally do not think the Green parties appeal is broad enough.”
If I was (t)Ruthless Davidson it would make sense to me to try and bring down the Scottish Government at exactly this point in time.
Article 50 will be triggered by the end of March, we believe;
there is very vocal opposition from the SNP MP’s at WM who will try to disrupt that as much as possible.
If (t)Ruthless can convince Kez and Wee Wullie to vote against the SNP then not only do all three leaders get extra brownie points from their London masters but they create a stalemate like that in N. Ireland just now.
Instead of James Brokenshire it would be Fluffy and the big chap from N E England (Newcastle?) who would lead Scotland in the interim period.
Our MP’s in WM would be recalled – no opposition to TM’s autocracy for a few months;
no Nicola ‘withering on’ about Indyref2 all the time (which she doesn’t do anyway!)
carte blanche to the BBC to say whatever they want re Brexit, Indy, SNP baad and remain unchallenged.
Combine Council/Scottish Government elections so not much extra cost.
If you believe the O. Polls which your party has been carrying out incessantly, then it’s obvious that (t)Ruthless will be the winner and the next FM of Scotland.
Indy ref cancelled; T.May happy; full English Brexit and porridge for Scotland; (t)Ruthless gets promoted to Queen of North Britain until such time as Holyrood is wound up by head office, then move south to a cushy number.
If you lose the gamble you’re still the leader of your party, will still be the Opposition, you’ve given it your best shot and put a huge spanner in the works for a few crucial months.
What’s not to like?
I believe that they are that stupid!
SNP/SNP every time for indy. Others are a waste of time.
Who wins when the vote is split? Westminster, that’s who.
O/t on victoria Derbyshire this morning talking about fake news on the ‘internet . No mention about fake news on the BBC and msm.
Wullie B says:
“The SNP cant come out and say that or they lose the right to have another referendum as the difference between Scotland and Englands intentions are gone, and I have been hearing that the SNP as it is would be lucky to hold onto Banff and Buchan now due to the pro EU stance ”
Its amazing that the Buchan is not another Orkney, with a Carmichael style yoon in there.
It is tight there but problem is, there’s hardly any fishing industry left in the Buchan. What’s left of the fash has got a huge UKOK media standing for lots of divide and conquer reasons but its the British military presence that really keeps the flag flying, military retirees too ofcourse, but only just. Lovely people too, wing commander Tuffton Buffton types.
mike d says:
30 January, 2017 at 10:57 am
O/t on victoria Derbyshire this morning talking about fake news on the ‘internet . No mention about fake news on the BBC and msm.
eg.
Graun liggers like this one very much,
“The SNP is close to ditching one of its longest-held principles for Scottish independence — full membership of the European Union.
The Times has learnt that senior party figures want to adopt a Norway-style model in which an independent Scotland would stay inside the single market, but outside the EU, after Brexit.
This, they believe, would allow Scotland to retain all the benefits of the European single market while continuing to trade within the UK as it does now.
A poll published yesterday found that more than a third of Yes voters from 2014 want to stay outside the EU and SNP strategists believe this new approach would keep these voters behind their independence cause.”
The Times:D
We are as close as we’ve ever been to Independence and this is the time the Greens in Scotland choose to play hardball.
The Greens in Scotland ran their election campaign based on increasing taxation COUPLED with increasing the minimum wage to 10 pounds an hour. Now they insist on increasing the taxation without the increase in the minimum wage.
Not what their supporters voted for.
They are starting to behave like an established UK party.
If the Holyrood opposition parties stand together to block the SG’s proposed budget then the people of Scotland will have to ask themselves a question – “How can we get the budget through next time if no one is prepared to compromise?”
They will realise that the ONLY party that has a chance of getting an overall majority (to get a budget through) is the SNP – all the other parties are simply too far behind and could NEVER achieve a majority on their own.
So, the ONLY party to have a realistic chance of getting a budget through after a snap Holyrood election is the SNP. The people of Scotland will realise that, vote for them and blow two holes in the feet of the opposition for being the total opportunistic arse pieces that they are.
Oh, and by returning the SNP with a majority at Holyrood we can be sure that there won’t be even BIGGER tax rises that each of the opposition parties are insisting upon.
The Yoonatics want another Holyrood election? Turkeys, Christmas, voting and all that.
Incidentally, the most recent, Kilmarnock by-election although only a 26.6% turn out still returned the SNP candidate with an increased vote and a tally almost higher than that polled for Labour and Conservative combined.
SNP 48.7% (+ 2.1%)
Lab 29.4% (-16.6%)
Con 20.1 (+12.7%)
https://ukgeneralelection2020.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/council-by-election-for-26th-january.html
Not a big turn out but we got the vote out on the day – that’s what really matters.
“O/t on victoria Derbyshire this morning talking about fake news on the ‘internet . No mention about fake news on the BBC and msm.”
And no mention either of how MI5 vets BBC staff to ensure they have the ‘right’ political views.
After Richard Walker’s speech at the indy conference the other week about supporting journalists I wonder if we could get his reaction now.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see the National withdrawn from circulation on the call of another referendum.
” Flower of Scotland says:
30 January, 2017 at 10:31 am
Yes, I noticed too on Facebook folk talking about the Green vote. I certainly got in there and warned about splitting the vote again with Greens/Rise whoever and advocating SNP/SNP in Holyrood elections and only SNP in council elections”
See? Even though STV doesn’t work like Holyrood’s FPTP+AMS, the backlash from last year’s tactical voting is causing people to oppose giving the Greens any votes at all in the council elections.
This could lead to majority unionist control of most councils, despite the SNP becoming the largest party in all of them.
There could be another Holyrood election on the same day as the local Authority elections in May. That would be after triggering Article 50 and crunch time for whether to go for staying in Europe or the doomsday option.
If we do get a snap election, the last person to listen to on this site is schroders cat who was arguing vehamently before the last Holyrood election for giving your second vote to another pro-indy party.
That worked out well. eh!
James Caithness says:
30 January, 2017 at 11:35 am
If we do get a snap election, the last person to listen to on this site is schroders cat who was arguing vehamently before the last Holyrood election for giving your second vote to another pro-indy party.”
Hey he only argued that for specific constituencies, that he knows pretty well.
Aw No!
We need all of our new media singing from the same hymn sheet and Bella is not helping with this.
There are people out there counting on the Scottish government, all of our new media and all of the diverse support for independence. With what is ranged against Scotland and what is at stake we simply cannot afford this right now.
Y’know, I get political differences, creative differences, even difference of approach to the same problem. I don’t agree with certain aspects of policy, tone or approach from a lot of folk on the indy side, bit I have NEVER seen the point in arguing with a fellow traveller.
The real enemy is so much worse and by some considerable degree.
Right now there’s the wee matter (in reverse order) of a budget to pass. The threat of a possible attempt by parties to bring down the sitting Scottish government. The small matter of PM May’s meeting with the heads of the devolved assemblies and lest we forget, avoiding Scotland being taken out of the EU against its express democratic wishes.
When A50 is triggered, and it will be triggered, we’d best have our collective shit together, because you can be damn sure the other side will. The only people who benefit from division in the indy camp are HMG and all that they stand for.
We won’t be granted a third chance in our lifetime.
Wow that is quite a telling result 22% of No voters want another indyref within 2 years.
Why would you want another indyref if you were a no voter,so you could now vote yes?
Robert Louis@10.46am
I supported Bella until the last crowdfunder. I know lots of people did and did not contribute this time for their stance on the Green/Rise vote. Folk didn’t understand the voting system and felt duped by Bella. That’s why their crowdfunder went down the tubes this time.
Who bailed them out I wonder?
I was blocked by Bella on Facebook before the Holyrood election because I argued (nicely) against splitting the SNP vote in favour of Green/Rise.
Meg merrilees @10.53
If an election to the Scottish Parliament was triggered because the Scottish Government did not get it’s budget through it would have no effect on the SNP’s MPs at Westminster. They remain in place and fully functioning.
They are members of another Parliament and are not recalled as you have suggested because there is an election to Holyrood.
If an election for Holyrood is triggered then Scottish Government ministers remain in place to conduct the day to day business of government. Neither Mundell nor his Labour shadow, whoever he is, takes over the running of Scotland.
They could hold the local elections and Holyrood elections on the same day but after the debacle the last time that happened they would be unlikely to do so.
Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
30 January, 2017 at 10:43 am
“Now I always took Patrick Harvey as a shrewd guy, but I think the idea of expanding his power base is taking precedent over indy ambitions.”
Yes, I agree. Which is of course perfectly compatible with him being “shrewd”.
Not really Rev the Greens in Scotlands best chance of expanding their power base will always be within an Indy Scottish Parliament never a Devolved one.
We have found out recently just how worthless the Devolved Parliament is in terms of power.
If the Greens split the pro Indy vote in Scotland and the Yoons concentrate their vote on the Tories then its not unfeasible for the Tories to end up as the largest party.
Perhaps that’s the Heralds long to medium term gameplan?
OT Trump poll still on fire …
1,131,955 Signed
o/t concerned MPs want fake news enquiry
https://www.rt.com/uk/375591-fake-news-parliament-inquiry/
Spot on Macart.
I am not a member of the SNP but will vote and support them until Scotland is independent.
Once Scotland is independent my vote will go to which ever party best supports my views.
Rev Stu, thank you for your expose(French accent acute) of what is indeed an extraordinary article in the SH. It is not roses I’m smelling!
Well. Now is the time for the Green Party to actualy stand up for Scotland, lay aside their possibly not so well thought out views on the Scottish budget for now, and show us that they really do want Independence for our Nation.
All of their policies would come to naught without Independence.
Time to straighten out their priorities.
So let me get this right we have 50% of the population who are yes or new yes who want indyref2 and we have 22% of no voters who want it that makes 72% want indyref2.
Which means hardcore yoon fannies are only 28%.
Amazing what bollocks you can make up from a poll with just a little creative arithmetic lol
Hmmmmm.
If we reach the next elections, council, or general, or indeed the next Indyref, if we are still squabbling about two or three seats here or there being significant, and whether or not the Greens are saviours or villains, then I can’t help seeing that as anything other than a dismal failure.
The UK is on the brink of disintegration, with the rUK underwriting its hopes and ambitions with magic wand Trade Deals agreed with the shoogliest USA presidency that I can remember, and yet Scotland is very well placed to avoid this leap into the abyss simply by staying still, holding on to our friends and commerce in Europe, asking only of ourselves that we take adequate control over our affairs to make it happen.
I’m sorry Scotland, and SNP, but if that plot synopsis lacks adequate bite for making the case for Independence, then it isn’t Donald Trump who needs a wee lie down on a psychiatrist’s couch, it’s the whole bloody lot of us.
I am alarmed that we are all so laid back about the inevitability of Indyref2 that we can afford to leave the campaigning to the manic few weeks before the vote. I believe it is sheer folly to believe we will have 2 years beyond the triggering of Article 50 to bring home a successful Indyref2 campaign. I fear it is much more likely that Indyref2 will be overtaken by Brexit, and Scotland will find itself out of Europe by technical distinction as a non sovereign entity. The deal will be done long before we can get our act together on a referendum, which Westminster will fight tooth and nail to prevent, and do so behind closed doors and denied our phone call to our friends in Europe.
Theresa May has already opted for a hard Brexit, and alluded to concessions and agreements which every European and his dog knows are fictional and not forthcoming. Scotland will not get any separate deal. By what possible device of nature is this realisation going to take two whole years of process???
Europe is on the record, they are holding a place for us, they are keeping our seat warm, they will grant us whatever latitude we require to tidy up our constitutional emancipation, and then we are good to go and take our place beside the other sovereign nations of Europe. Offers don’t come any better than that, yet still we dawdle, unsure.
Why are we so dismally bad at marketing the idea of Scottish Independence that innumerable betrayals, cheats, belittlings, and smears still holds sway over our positive self determination? The Union can lie to us with impunity, trample all over our constitutional protections, and take from us whatever it likes, whether that’s oil, whisky, fishing rights, North Sea territorial waters, and all we can manage is to play the Toy-land politics in the Toy-land parliament which they humbled themselves to allow us, but which is unsubstantial and literally stands for nothing in their law. It’s a talking shop masquerading as a government, which the “real” government doesn’t even have to consult.
This is not making any sense to me. What have we actually achieved since 2014, and is it truly our achievement, or merely collateral “advantage” from Brexit? Sewel counts for nothing, so Holyrood counts for nothing, so exactly what does an SNP majority at Holyrood actually count for? It’s uncomfortable arithmetic, but you can hopefully work it out. Outright majority or minority admin, it’s still an illusion of control which blinds us to where our true, sovereign power lies.
This Indyref2 campaign whenever it kicks off better be astounding, because if we choose referendum over legal diktat to secure our sovereignty then it’s going to have to be:-
Communications. Sorted. Myths debunked. Sorted. Progressive Agenda. Sorted. Constitutional legitimacy. Sorted. Legal authority. Sorted. Hostile propaganda. Sorted. Foreign Observers. Sorted. Political Mandate. Sorted. Foreign endorsements. Sorted. International recognition. Sorted. Answers rehearsed and familiar for Unionist propaganda. Sorted. Counter-propaganda awareness and readiness. Sorted. Campaign literature. Sorted. Campaign media. Sorted. UDI contingencies. Sorted. Worst case scenarios. Sorted. Economic models. Sorted.
Have you heard the machinery running? Not sure that I have.
Scotland needs to face the next constitutional hurdle as a fully fledged sovereign nation in waiting, not squabbling about left or right leaning sympathies, who said what to whom, or free bus passes for the elderly. The divisive Unionist propaganda must not get a look in. Are we ready for that?
Well we better get ready, and fast.
Was that 22% of No voters who would vote No again, or those who had voted No?
It seems to me that Patrick Harvey isn’t looking at the long term – kinda ironic for a Green.
Surely the best long term way to address the issues that he wants to address by increasing tax, is to get independence and gain monetary control and stop paying for UK vanity projects like Trident?
Looks like the Board of Bella Caledonia will need to intervene and sort out Williamson and the other one, both of whom let ego get in the way of open access on their blog. Disagree with them – you’re barred.
Unlike the likes of Craig Murray who seeems to actually enjoy it and quite rightly too. You learn from people who have different points of view to yourself, and let nobody disagree with me on that one or I’ll go off in a BC-like huff.
Anyways OT, Trump causes problems for Privacy Shield and data protection in Europe.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/01/26/trump_blows_up_transatlantic_privacy_shield/
Legerwood
Phew!
I’m glad I got that one wrong, thanks – That’s a relief!
I was obviously having a terrible nightmare when I posted the previous item…
(still think they could be daft enough to try it – just as a diversion up here.)
Phew!, wide awake now and waiting for Nicola’s important announcement today.
@ Brian Powell
Why would they want another indyref regardless,it kind of stood out at me as well.
If it goes to another election by the way with the voting public probably hacked off to the back teeth with elections and referendums anyway, a factor n the calling of Indy Ref 2, the big losers will be the LibDems and the Greens, both of whom will be seen as the villains of the piece.
The SNP got elected as a minority government on the basis of their manifesto which they are implementing. The elctorate rejected the manifestoes of the Tories, Labour – an the LibDems and Greens. They would be expected to compromise, and gain some small ground. I’d say the Greens would be lucky if they got one single MSP returned.
Breeks@11.53
The SNP are an umbrella group containing people of all political persuasions and that includes far left and Greens. That’s why we should always vote SNP until we get Independence, then we can vote for whichever party we want.
That’s why I joined 52 years ago. I was more leaning towards the left and at that time the SNP were called “Tartan Tories”, but I could see even then that we needed only ONE strong party in Government to take Scotland to Independence.
This splitting the vote is just a gift to the Unionist parties.
It’s taken Curtice a while to come up with this cunning stunt, the matter was discussed ad nauseum at the time, obviously there’s money in it for him? There were splitters on here before the election, as if Mundell wasn’t lesson enough!
This splitting the vote is just a gift to the Unionist parties.
Belying that now though, Greens, SLab, fringe left at Bella, are all fighting for higher taxation for Scots now.
There are all kinds of economic issues around tax hikes for Scotland only, in approx 8% of UK economy, in austerity UK, with Brexit inflation going up and up, let alone high risk post Brexit slump, and against the why and how of what Scots actually voted SNP last time.
SLab in particular flopped last time, campaigning for tax hikes on Scots. On top of all that, the blue tories rage, Scots now pay highest UK taxes.
None of this real world stuff makes any difference to our current Holyrood opposition. It probably does at the ballot box though.
Breeks wrote on 30 January, 2017 at 11:53 am:
“I am alarmed that we are all so laid back about the inevitability of Indyref2 that we can afford to leave the campaigning to the manic few weeks before the vote.”
I beg your pardon? I and several others have long since started the ball rolling in our own little ways and are already educating people to the current political situation in Scotland without actually mentioning the ‘R’ word (referendum).
We’re not prepared to sit around waiting on any starting gun because the BUM propaganda machine never stops. Project fear and smear runs constantly 24/7 and only ever either gets cranked up or down a notch or two.
Also, what do you think groups such as ‘Inform Scotland’ are doing?
Meg merrilees @ 12.13
I did wonder. Not like you to be so adrift
I have had severe concerns over Patrick Harvie’s judgement for a number of years now. It would not surprise me in the slightest if the Greens force another election at the worst possible time, which is this moment, with all the instability of Brexit and Trump’s insane start to his presidency. Put simply I don’t trust Harvie one inch. He made it clear during indyref 1 that independence is not a high priority of his too put in mildly. I don’t have any faith in Harvie’s political judgment, and unfortunately he gives the impression of wanting to be popular with the No side, which is a complete liability at this stage.
I see the Scotsman has the Times poll on another independence referendum as their lead item on the websit.
Is it not time the Rev opened the war chest and commissioned our own poll that we know will give us an accurate picture of where we currently stand with the populatio?
heedtracker says:
30 January, 2017 at 11:01 am
Wullie B says:
“The SNP cant come out and say that or they lose the right to have another referendum as the difference between Scotland and Englands intentions are gone, and I have been hearing that the SNP as it is would be lucky to hold onto Banff and Buchan now due to the pro EU stance ”
Its amazing that the Buchan is not another Orkney, with a Carmichael style yoon in there.
It is tight there but problem is, there’s hardly any fishing industry left in the Buchan. What’s left of the fash has got a huge UKOK media standing for lots of divide and conquer reasons but its the British military presence that really keeps the flag flying, military retirees too ofcourse, but only just. Lovely people too, wing commander Tuffton Buffton types.
There is still an industry there, and when you take in all the supporting industries like fish processors, engineering firms and such, the B&B will once again become a yoon area, it always was a conservative area until Alex Salmond on a ticket of help the fishing
Did you know at the Brexit count if Banff and Buchan was voting as an area rather than along with Aberdeen West and one other it would have been massively pro Brexit, almost double the votes of remain, the other unnamed constituency was also pro Brexit due to land owners and farmers, only Aberdeen West kept that area as Remain, and that came from an SNP observer at the count.
The SNP needs to come out with an EFTA plan if UK goes for a hard Brexit without ties, that way it wins leave and remain support
I respect that Flower of Scotland, but whatever the SNP thinks it is, to many non-SNP folk it’s still the source of leadership which is going to deliver Independence. I don’t buy this “Ah well, we’re just the political mechanism to implement the will of the people”.
If the SNP doesn’t want to lead Indyref2, then who do we get to speak to to get it happening? If we don’t get leadership and structure to the campaign, then we will run out of time, drift into a second defeat, and live out the rest of live in acrimonious obscurity.
Somebody needs to pick up the ball and run with it, and as far as I can see, that’s the SNP. Are they waiting for the right moment? Or waiting for somebody else to do the honours? See? We already lack communication, but I have a moderate surplus of frustration I’m happy to share out equally. ?
SNP X 2 from now on in.
Patrick Harvie, what are you on?
Trump has turned the USA into the Fourth Reich in a matter of days, Theresa May is making weapons for Turkey’s Pol Pot, and Dugdale, Davidson, and Rennie have refused to publicly condemn Trump or the Brit Establishment’s endorsement of the Mad Right.
Rennie came across as a blithering idiot on Brewer’s Parish Council add on the Neil’s London/Westminster Bubble show yesterday.
Laughing coyly like a Dudley D Watkins’ Oor Wullie caricature, this stupid little nobody reminded his pal Gordie about how much he lurvs elections, hee hee.
We are close to Indyref 2 now.
The Greens will vote with the Government or face oblivion.
The LA elections in May will see Fat Frankie the Pieman with his St Trinian’s lusty morals and the crooks of Glasgow’s Tammany Hall kicked out on their ears, but only if we reject this ‘tactical voting’ nonsense, and stick to our guns: SNP x2.
The world is going mad and the online Herald has a Professor Two Jobs WATP sectarian bigot Tomkins photo-op, and nonsense about the Bad SNP neglecting their day job, as NS, and 56 Pro Independence WM MPs take on Tomkins’ and the Better Together Red Blue and Yellow Tories’ now clearly racist, fascist, ultra right wing Puppet Masters, in defence of Scotland, the Scottish People, and our right to be heard.
I recall Kevin McKenna plea for us to cut his Dead Tree Scrolls’ colleagues some slack. There are hundreds of pro independence journalists, but they’ve got to make a living writing for the Man.
Adolf Eichmanns; only obeying orders.
In a matter of days, it has got life threateningly serious.
Trump and May are quite simply off their rockers.
I will not stand by while unelected LisTory Boys get front and centre in our Media to talk local pish, while their Crazy Cabal of May Farage Fox Davis, and my Christ, Boris Johnson spread uber-fascism throughout these isles.
To all those who voted Yes and Leave, it’s make your mind up time,
Will they, as the ubiquitous ‘Big Brain'(att. Nicky Campbell)Professor John Curtice, a pollster working for a government funded UK organisation, vote No in Indyref 2, because their desire to leave the EU under May’s terms is more powerful than the prospect of an Independent Scotland?
Likewise, those who voted No to Independence but Remain in the EU, will they suddenly change their minds because of their pro EU stance and vote Yes to independence where they once voted No, just to stay in Europe?
Prof Curtice stated on Campbell’s show that ‘the polls’ showed roughly the same split as Indyref 1,(45/55) and that Yes converting to No, and No converting to Yes to Leave or Stay in Europe regardless of stance on the Independence question would magically cancel each other out, the Stalemate Gambit.
Ergo, Brexit and Trump will have no affect on voters’ intentions when it comes to Indyref 2.Aye right, Curtice.
‘Big brain’, my arse.
Of course the good Prof knows that any Indyref poll before the Brexshit hits the fan is meaningless, but it gets him all that appearance money on Donalda’s BBC Brexit/Unionist Propaganda Wing.
SNP x 2 every time, until Self Determination, and then and only then can the independent citizens of Scotland have true democracy.
The people of Scotland will decide at the ballot box which Administration they wish to form a government of the people, by the people, and directly responsible to the people of Scotland in Free Scotland..
@ Thrawn says: 30 January, 2017 at 10:16 am:
” … It is that arrogance and monomania of the SNP echoed by its chief propagandists that will be it’s downfall”
Well, Thrawn, – so be it –
I rather like their downfall from a small handful of MP at Westminster to a, very close to 100% representation, still in power at Holyrood after several periods in power and poised to become the leading party in more local councils.
I’ll take that kind of downfall any day.
Manufacturing and fostering ‘wedge issues’ is the established tactic in political jargon.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wedge_issue
You can understand why one side (Unionists usually in Scotland) adopt such tactics to damage their opposition.
What is more difficult is to understand the fools within the target group who get taken in by the tactic!
They profess to be on one side, but end up causing fractures which assist the other side. Some ‘profess’, some probably still believe they are actually on the target side. Gullible, or what?
The trump poll will be put over the same as all these phony polls maybe say 3million signed it but the population of Britain is over 60million so there phony poll will be beaten by 57million but they will still present this as the will of the British people they insult our intelligence all polls should be banned for the fraud that they are they only exist to try to sway the gullable
Did you know at the Brexit count if Banff and Buchan was voting as an area rather than along with Aberdeen West and one other it would have been massively pro Brexit.”
You can argue that about any result Wullie B. And indeed yoon culture does. More Scots for the UK than Remain, therefore Scots are Leavers and pro UK, so shut up and be British yoons rant.
And that’s just the tip of yoon culture’s, never mind election and ref results, its the numbers what count.
Its not. Obvs:D
Breeks says:
Yes. Also there are the practicalities of getting an IndyRef proposal through a parliament so it actually happens.
Only the SNP in Holyrood will ever make that happen. Our MPs in WM can achieve little. The initiating action has to be in Holyrood.
Only then can the make up of YES2 be considered.
@Craig
The Rev mentioned he had money for a poll, but I expect he’s picking the moment. There’s still the JMC today for instance, nearly a last chance saloon for the UK Government to agree to the SNP / SG plan to keep Scotland in the single market. Despite the noises, it hasn’t been formally outrightrejected, and May and her cronies and pet poodle Mundell still make the odd conciliatory tone. It needs to be definitely rejected.
Then there’s Brexit Bill strutting his stuff in the House of Commons. The SNP MPS have to move amendments to the bill on the basis that’s what they were elcted for, and until they’re formally voted down and Brexit Bill becomes an Act, same problem.
My reading behind the scenes of contradictory answers to questions in the polls is that much of the electorate still have trust in the SNP to try to get the Single Market within the UK. Once that’s totally gone, and Sturgeon says “That’s all folks, it’s Indy Ref 2 because there’s nothing left now”, then the polls might start moving.
The unionist activists we see posting don’t represent the standard NO voters – they’re the anti-SNP mob. The electorate generall are not.
Political arrogance has been the downfall of Labour. Other parties should be sensitive to falling into the same trap. I have instances of emailing SNP and Green politicians who did not consider my emails on issues of public concern worthy of a reply. I would not of course put Tory politicians to such a test as I find them beyond contempt, while Willie Rennie’s lot (‘I need all the publicity I can get.’) are not worth the time of day.
The propaganda by the mainstream media today is that some of the news on social media is FAKE, just because they cant control it, and they, by experience know what is fake.!
Re;thrawn@10.16am
‘Monomania’, you say. A vert strong word at the best of times, used against those who support the SNP government, who are doing amazingly well regards the ‘environment’, and ‘social justice’. They are also working within huge constraints of WM austerity and the huge impacts of that on the people of Scotland. They (the SNP) are mitigating the unionists preferred monomaniac objective, it’s called austerity. Austerity which attacks our most vulnerable, and in the process, removes crucial money out of the local economy, that affects the wider economy. People can’t spend in the local shops if they have just been sanctioned by the UK’s DWP, or if they are working for a pittance on zero hours contracts.
The ‘monomania’ of which you speak has been coming from the unionists, they have not shut up about independence. They do not care one jot about securing our SNHS, or building new homes, or bridges essential to Scotland’s infrastructure. They display monomaniacal obstruction by doing down their own country at every single opportunity, too poor they say, when they know that is absolute rubbish!
As for the new ‘powers’, the ScotGov are doing a balancing act, with limited, teensy weensy ‘powers’ that are being thrown at Scotland, while the UK WMGov remove jobs and even job centres in Scotland. WM are throwing some stale, mouldy crumbs and taking back some more slices of the freshly baked, wholesome loaf with the other hand. Devolution light is what we have and no one is being fooled on that one!
WM tories will continue to remove jobs from Scotland, HMRC, DWP, etc, while bolstering their own support by taking those jobs to the parts of england where they want to gain popularity, former labour areas.
The only party at present that can protect Scotland’s interests, is the SNP. The Greens should support the SNP, it’s the only way to gain popularity and remain a good worthwhile opposition in Scotland. After independence, they may well find they become much more popular in Scotland.
The rest of the troughers are a waste of everyone’s time, and not to mention, money.
Tell you what, though, if the Greens help to bring down the government and the ‘pro-indy majority’ is lost as a result (meaning no chance of indyref 2), I for one will be seriously unimpressed!
I notice MSN are putting the Greek economy on the front page again, I am expecting the Scottish economy to be saddled along with this, after all Scotland’s too wee and too poor to survive on its own.
Empire shortbread will twist this story along with many others with rabid glee the minute Nic triggers Indy Ref2.
Message to the empire trolls, ” we know what your up to.”
With Labour heading the same way the Lib Dems did its really dangerous for the pro Indy vote to split.
If support for the SNP goes Green in any significant way and the Yoons concentrate their support on the Conservatives then we will have a reversal of power within the Parliament and all hope for any Independence at all out the window for a full generation or 2 at least.
The time to split the pro indy vote is within the Indy Parliament not before as so many people keep saying to those who want a diverse pro Indy campaign and ideology.
We can sort out the ideologies once we gain the foundations to build them on. Not before.
The Westminster England is superior and comes first parties
will be looking to force another Holyrood Election just for the simple sake of sickening the electorate here with a constant barage of voting.
This tactic they hope will see a small turn out at Indy Ref 2, and secure Scotland as England’s Colony evermore.
Vote Tory for constant austerity cuts for oridanry citizens and tax rebates for the filthy rich.
Vote Labour for the Party that Abstains and haven’t had a good idea in decades. The Millionaire’s Socialist Party.
Vote Liberal The Party of “Lying to the electorate is just part of UK politics” Carmichael only wasted £1 million on a public enquiry into smearing our duely elected First Minister. Carmichael is a lying cheat and his party fully supported his actions. Vote for the Lib Lie Pack!
Vote Green for the Party who don’t seem to be able to recognise that only the SNP are seriously working on renewables and carbon reduction targets?
Vote SNP until your country is free from the Corruption that is Westminster, the HoC, and something pretending to be the media. You can do what you like thereafter, Left, Right, European, Trumpezium, anything that you damn well like.
The SNP majority was lost because voters believed they didn’t have to vote. The Tory vote turns out. The hardcore yoons, like the hardcore patriots turn out. Trumpo it seems won because his side persuaded their opposition to stay away from the polls.
If you want to see a party elected then above all, you have to bother to vote.
If money is needed for a poll get on with it – launch a fundraiser now
I am well fed up with hearing Scotland does not want indyref2
Every NAT group must be developing a fund raising plan for the next 18 months
Awe. Hammer of the Scotch Severin Carrell’s given his Scotland region a The Graun front page slot for a lunchtime treat,
http://archive.is/4ylgD
Cant think why UKOK hackdom’s thinking about Braemar, Balmoral and Heil Trump’s state visit, to their Scotland region of greater England.
Great posts @ Artyhetty and Jack Collatin
@Thrawn, who’s rattled your cage, calling us acolytes?? Way to make your point.
Yesterday on Twitter, James Kelly (who also writes for the FT) and the Rev were flatly accused by this Williamson article of splitting the vote. I was completely outraged by it, as those two, and Bateman were the sane voices, who clearly stated many times:
Vote for who you want, but if you DO want SNP in charge, don’t game the system based on the RISE and Green misleading BS, that the SNP majority is guaranteed.
It was obvious to all but the brain dead, that you cannot PREDICT the vote on the day. So many fell for the crap, saying its fine, everyone says SNP will walk it, so let’s have a few Greens supporting them.
My experience on the day of the vote, as I was tramping the streets with my SNP friend. I said I was fearful of not getting a majority based on what I was hearing/seeing.
She said, yes, my son in law, staunch Scot and Indy, said he is giving his second vote to Greens. I practically threw a fit, but she said she had tried to tell him otherwise.
I knew then, that younger demographic had fell for it.
heedtracker says:
30 January, 2017 at 11:01 am
Wullie B says:
“The SNP cant come out and say that or they lose the right to have another referendum as the difference between Scotland and Englands intentions are gone, and I have been hearing that the SNP as it is would be lucky to hold onto Banff and Buchan now due to the pro EU stance ”
Its amazing that the Buchan is not another Orkney, with a Carmichael style yoon in there.
It is tight there but problem is, there’s hardly any fishing industry left in the Buchan. What’s left of the fash has got a huge UKOK media standing for lots of divide and conquer reasons but its the British military presence that really keeps the flag flying, military retirees too ofcourse, but only just. Lovely people too, wing commander Tuffton Buffton types.
The problem is heedtracker, its not just the fishing boats or fishermen left, its fisherman past, ancilliary jobs like fish factory workers, engineering firms.
It used to be the case of for every fisherman there was 10 jobs dependent on them, now it maybe 6 or 7 and the crux of the matter is that pre Alex Salmond Banff and buchan was very much a conservative and unionist area, and that has never gone away, the tories were the only party that came near the SN in Banff and Buchan, and the fisherman feeling forgotten by the SNP who got in on a ticket of protecting the fishing industry are returning to the party that will “deliver them from evil” that evil being the Common Fisheries Policy of Brussels
The Brexit result in the North east was only saved by having Aberdeen lumped together with banff and Buchan and one other which I cant remember, banff and Buchan had a higher vote for leave, the one I cant remember was also leave but Aberdeen West kept it as a remain area.
Banff and Buchan will almost certainly become Blue once again if Brexit happens before the next general election orif a referendum hasnt been called
The only way to prevent this is the SNP calling a snap referendum, the yes camaign winning and the Scottish Government choosing EFTA as it will def win voted from either side of the fence, the remain side keeping access, yet the leave side getting sovreignty, but if the UK goes for a hard brexit and Scotland doesnt call a referedum then the party is finished here as it is
It doesnt help when even senior members of the party are leave voters against he parties stance
I am genuinely at a loss as to what Bella/SH hopes to achieve by this latest onslaught. It is as if they want to own the Independence movement. Ten years Bella has been going and I can honestly say I had never heard of it until the referendum.
Most of the Indy supporters I know in real life have no strong party affiliation and would probably class themselves left of centre with a belief in a less divided society with good quality, well funded public services and favour renewables and greenish ethics. All agree that at this time the SNP seems the strongest instrument to gain independence and acknowledge the broad church approach they have.
I cannot for the life of me see what can be gained by telling people who to vote for and that they owe a vote to the left. If the Greens or Rise want more votes next time they have to earn them and if Bella/ SH are their media voice then good luck with that.
For me, the hubristic headline and picture of Nicola Sturgeon a week before the 2016 election sounded the death knell for the SH. They knew what they were doing in nurturing a sense of complacency to give people the confidence to vote Green or Rise. If they are stirring for an election they may kill off Indy for years because tactical voting is a volatile beast.
Maybe that is what they want? Maybe talking, writing and rapping about it is a much more lucrative occupation than achieving it?
@mike d says: 30 January, 2017 at 10:57 am:
“O/t on victoria Derbyshire this morning talking about fake news on the ‘internet . No mention about fake news on the BBC and msm.”
I woke to my radio alarm this morning. Usually I had it set to Radio 4. There was some guy on the news actually shouting down about, “Fake News”.
The laughable thing was he was ranting on about the UK as, “The Country”, and also as, “Britain”, and talking about, “Brexit”, but he thought it was only the on-line sites that were spreading fake news.
So later I had a read at the Ceefax text service on Radio Jockland on their TV channel and read the article :-
“Fake News inquiry to be launched by MPs.”
That’ll be the same MPs that have made the Westminster Parliament of the bipartite United Kingdom into a de facto parliament of the country of England that now runs the, “United Kingdom”, but calls it, “Britain”, and, “The Country”, that runs the country of England as the ruling country devolving the country 0f England’s powers over their three subservient dominion countries by use of the threat of a, “British”, Army, Navy and Air-Force.
These guys wouldn’t recognise fake news it bit their collective bums.
A poem on Trump in a New Zealand poetry competition won by a wee lass from Scotland, in the style of Robert Burns.
You can read it and watch her recite it in the video:
http://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/news/88778653/scathing-donald-trump-poem-wins-new-zealand-competition
Wullie B says:
30 January, 2017 at 1:28 pm
heedtracker says:
30 January, 2017 at 11:01 am
Telling us, you voted one way but do as I say you voted is an odd case to make Wullie. Yes, a lot of unionists and tories do this, aswell as being able to read minds too.
A lot of leading fishing Scots industry are very pro EU. Its because of the EU that there is still a Scots fishing industry. Much of the highest quality Scots fishing industry produce goes straight to Europe.
Fish workers were bullshitted heavily by UKOK campers, tory BBC Scotland in particular was the worst offender for kidding people on they’d get devo over Scottish North Sea and Atlantic fisheries, if they voted Leave.
Ofcourse its all just another pack of tory lies.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-36340202
“We have a management plan and from my experience that is slowly starting to work. Every stock is sustainable.
“If we were to come out of Europe we could find ourselves with management being controlled by a Westminster government. How would they cope with that?”
He added: “I let evidence speak for itself – we have a growing fishing industry.
“Our fishing industry would be knocked back 10 years, throwing it into crisis. It’s not perfect, fishing management is very complex.”
I’d add, NEVER trust the tories, whatever you do for a living in Scotland.
You’ve got to love the Scottish Tories for their cupidity (or is it stupidity?). From the actual Times poll Panelbase data tables, in response to the question about “When do you think another Scottish independence referendum should be held?”:
“In the next year or two, while the UK is negotiating to leave the EU – 27%
About two years from now, when the UK has finished negotiating to leave the EU – 23%
There should not be another Scottish independence referendum in the next few years – 51%”
Makes a bit of a nonsense of their infographic which is totally out of scale anyway!
http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181w9tablesforpublication300117.pdf
You’ve gotta love the Tories – desperate for even a couple of days before they get totally discredited. Anyone copied that infographic of theirs …
Great comment Jack Collatin@12.43
I’m on Wings lots of times a day but don’t comment much because there are much better commenters than me. However this nonsense about splitting the vote, is so dangerous to us gaining our Independence that I was persuaded to.
Heedtracker, am very much SNP, but the words coming out of industry ears is what I am using . The fact is Salmond got in on a save the fishing ticket, time and time again it was we need out of Europe to save the industry, but the SNPnever had the power to change it, then in last decade it’s Eu this good and EU that good, I believe we need the euro markets, the boats need the EU for crewmen, , basically I would vote yes to an EFTA with Schengen Agreement, but Fergus Ewing was talking about being in Europe without the CFP, the only way that will happen is if the Scot Gov push for an EFT agreement rather than full membership, that gives the Norway style access to EU that senior ministers are banging on about now
Yeah, that “fall in support for an independence referendum” graphic is on Ruth Davidson’s twitter. It has a stragint line showing 43% – 32% (-11) – 27% (-5) which is clearly not a straight line graph as the Tories misrepresent it KH style.
It should of course be a V shape for 43% – 32% (perhaps) – 50%.
Ooops, the Tories pooped again.
The Unionist argument:
In 1707 England said if you don’t join our Union we will kill you
In 2017 England says if you leave our Union we will kill you (trade starvation)
Scotland has been eating cereal for a long time and in 2014 Scotland voted to keep eating cereal forever and ever and ever, that menu is to remain the same forever
If Scotland wants to eat something different for a change we will kill you or starve you or well we’ll do something to harm you
Signed: With love, The Brits
If another election is called because the S.N.P.c,an not get their budget through they should have independence in their manifesto thus removing the need for ind.,2
I am sure an independent Scotland within the EU would have a very different approach to the CFP than that taken previously by the UK.
DerekM says:
30 January, 2017 at 11:40 am
“Wow that is quite a telling result 22% of No voters want another indyref within 2 years.
Why would you want another indyref if you were a no voter,so you could now vote yes?”
Maybe because you think yes would lose if it was called before Brexit and kill off independence indefinitely
Just a thought
Graeme
Brian Powell says:
30 January, 2017 at 1:35 pm
A poem on Trump in a New Zealand poetry competition won by a wee lass from Scotland, in the style of Robert Burns.
Ha ha ha. Excellent.
Saw a funny quip too about “Can we no find some oil pipelines to build at Balmedie?”
Well, it made me chuckle.
People have been claiming things about 2011 versus 2016 elections which didn’t sound right, so I checked the results.
Turn out
2011 50.4%
2016 55.6%
SNP Consituency vote
2011 902,915 & 45.4%
2016 1,059,897 & 46.5%
SNP Regional vote
2011 876,421 & 44.0%
2016 953,587 & 41.7%
Green Consituency vote
2011 NA
2016 13,172 & 0.6%
Green Regional vote
2011 87,060 & 4.4%
2016 150,426 & 6.6%
– Turn out % UP
– SNP Consituency vote UP absolute & percentage
– SNP Regional vote DOWN as percentage
– Green Regional vote UP absolute & percentage
Consider these, though. Constituency and regional.
2011
Labour 630,461 & 31.7% and 523,559 & 26.3%
Conservative 276,652 & 13.9% and 245,967 & 12.4%
Liberal Democrats 157,714 & 7.9% and 103,472 & 5.2%
2016
Labour 514,261 & 22.6% and 435,919 & 19.1%
Conservative 501,844 & 22.0% and 524,222 & 22.9%
Liberal Democrats 178,238 & 7.8% and 119,284 & 5.2%
Who REALLY benefited most from 2nd vote being used ‘tactically’? The Tories!
Also, there does seem to a surprising number of people in general willing to use their list vote differently. That seems very odd to me.
– 1 in 3 LibDems
– 1 in 6 Lab
The List/Regional vote should be your MAIN choice.
Looks like a lot of people think it’s STV style 1st choice, 2nd choice!
When Alex Salmond talked about leaving the EU to save Scotlands fishing industry it was because Scotland had no say in the EU about our fishing industry and the UK as member state was bargaining our rights away once again with no consultation
In the EU Scotland gets a say just like Wallonia did over trade agreements
There’s power to be had in the EU even if you’re small
In the UK there’s nothing nada zilch zero
Wullie B says:
30 January, 2017 at 1:56 pm
Heedtracker, am very much SNP, but
But did you read what the Remain voter in that BBC Scotland thing said about the EU? Granted the gits stick anyone that they dont want you to hear from, at the bottom of everything. But one more time,
“Fish processor Andrew Charles is worried about what would replace the EU
“We have a management plan and from my experience that is slowly starting to work. Every stock is sustainable.
“If we were to come out of Europe we could find ourselves with management being controlled by a Westminster government. How would they cope with that?”
He added: “I let evidence speak for itself – we have a growing fishing industry.
“Our fishing industry would be knocked back 10 years, throwing it into crisis. It’s not perfect, fishing management is very complex.”
Fact is, UK fishing industry nearly emptied our seas of all life Wullie. Its likely that without the EU, there’d be nothing left of anything to do with the fishing now. Look at how Iceland had to fight them off. A lot of them are now emptying deep sea Atlantic fisheries of all life, off North Africa as we chat here.
One of the great strengths of having a Brussels like government in charge of our resources like this, is that there is almost no chance of tory style pork barrel politics, or Brussels cant be got at, by get rich quick types.
This fact of EU life is really what’s driven Brexit, the filthy rich were up against a parliament of 600 million, and not even a vicious old tory like Murdoch could reach them
Max vile sep pomposity level, achieved:D
Regardless of Bertie Armstrong’s great hope for Scottish fishermen post BREXIT, the fact is, as long as Scotland remains in the UK, control of fishing will never be granted to Scotland.
WM needs Scottish fishing grounds. It’s too big an asset and a negotiating tool to hand over to Holyrood. They may be daft but they are not that stupid. 🙂
After BREXIT, the Scottish fishing industry will be sold down the Swannee in order to protect other interests of WM.
I don’t think that the LEAVE/ NO voters of Buchan have thought that one through properly – yet.
@Breeks says: 30 January, 2017 at 11:53 am:
… “I believe it is sheer folly to believe we will have 2 years beyond the triggering of Article 50 to bring home a successful Indyref2 campaign.”
If you imagine that the UK PM will submit an Article 50 request to leave the EU and the next day the UK will be walking away from the EU with Scotland, Wales and NI in tow then you are more delusional that T. May and her Tory Blue/Red/Yellow Westminster Establishment buddies.
In the first place the European Parliament will not even have a date set to debate the matter. First the request to leave will have to be made via the EC, (The European Commission are the European Parliament’s Civil Service).
They will dissect it and consider all the implications but are prevented from doing so officially yet for as yet the, so called, “Brexit”, is no more to Europe than a threat to leave. A sort of Westminster Establishment Blackmail attempt. Indeed that was how it began with Cameron never imagining it would ever actually happen.
Why do you suppose he had to resign? He gambled and lost the bet. He simply was attempting to screw some more rebate out of the EU and the EU bluffed him out.
So the EC will take as long as they can string it out for in order for the EU to continue getting the Westminster UK money coming in. Then they will submit their findings and recommendations to the Proper EU Ministers who in turn will take as long as they can get away with in considering the matter before making their submissions to the parliament. First of all the, so called, “Brexit”, will be at the back of the queue of all EU business. It is only Westminster that imagines it is ultra important in the EU scale of things.
The parliament has political parties like every other parliament and they will hold differing view. This will be a lengthy drawn out matter before a bill is proposed and that will then go to the various parties who will oppose, amend, or both, the various aspects of the proposed bill.
Probably it will shuffle to and fro between the parliament and the EC for a while before if gets the next reading.
Meanwhile other countries will not officially strike trade deals with Westminster because nothing is yet settled. Even then trade deals can take decades.
I believe we are in for a very long haul before we even know if the UK is leaving and that itself will take at very least 2 years as laid down in the EU rules.
Oh you are so uber suspicious of our glorious press Stu!
Yes spot on again. The MSM are going to try and split the vote like the last time. It never gets old. They and Bella can get to hell. Incidentally is Bella an instrument of the MSM?
I don’t thinks there will be an election. It would be suicide for the Greens bringing down the party of independence!
Any truth in the rumor that the SNP is about to ditch full EU membership in favour of Norway style set up. This will appease the little Scotlanders who have said they wont vote indy if in EU!
“…and we’ve only come up with one possible explanation – it’s expecting another election.”
Or attempting to influence/provoke/engineer an early election.
Alan says:
30 January, 2017 at 11:32 am
” Flower of Scotland says:
30 January, 2017 at 10:31 am
“See? Even though STV doesn’t work like Holyrood’s FPTP+AMS, the backlash from last year’s tactical voting is causing people to oppose giving the Greens any votes at all in the council elections.
This could lead to majority unionist control of most councils, despite the SNP becoming the largest party in all of them.”
Nonsense. If you believe that, please show your workings in an example.
@ Graham
Not sure where you got your thought from my post Graham.
And no i dont think yes would lose i think we would get robbed by the UK cheating scum once again in a rigged tory election fraud,that is why i advocate after A50 is signed and not before so we can avoid westminster trying to run the referendum count.
Sheesh. So the Herald happily leaves links to Telegraph or even Express articles, but deletes my link to the actual Panelbase data tables which shows the actual questions adding up to 50% (49.46% to be accurate).
So I ahve to post a long-winded word explanation of how to navigate to that table, becuase Panelbase who are REQUIRED to publish data tables so long after a newspaper uses their results b the Polling Council, try hard to hide them away under the tab “media” with the tab “polls” on their main page.
Such fucking dishonesty in the media – and polling organisations.
Regarding indyref2 and a potential imminent Holyrood election, both need to come later rather than sooner IMO.
What needs to happen is for a pillar of the Union to be undermined in order for Yoon confidence to fall.
We need to see economic or social cohesiveness south of the border to fall away, in order for yoons to start to see the Union in a new light.
Brexit may set in motion events that bring about the fall of a pillar.
I can imagine economic chaos hitting people in their pockets. An economic wake up call then may result with a view developing that the UK is a basketcase becoming prevalent and thus weakening Yoon confidence in the UK.
Ditto for social cohesion; if Brexit doesn’t deliver a resurgent UK.
Ditto for immigration; if non EU immigration continues unchecked into England (which it will) and there is a perception from Brexiteers that they have been betrayed, then trouble will erupt.
Yoon culture will inevitably be fatally undermined for some when the British Empire is not immediately reconstituted the day after Brexit.
Scots of an independent nature just need to be patient. We need to resist calls for actions that may be premature.
I feel this reflects badly on Prof Curtice who is, essentially, a scientist who doesn’t really like making opinions that the evidence doesn’t back up (these days). Don’t really want him getting a reputation of giving advisory information when in fact he analyses past data and spots trends. It’s quite unfair and academics are often misrepresented in this way which is how we got to the “the polls are wrong” nonsense.
@Jack Collatin (12.43) –
Well said indeed. Totally agree.
So Chris Musson, political editor of Scottish Sun tweets: “Holyrood parties accusing each other of “fake news” and “alternative facts” over piddly issues. Get a grip. Save it for when it matters”.
Now if only we didn’t have LabConLib parties and ‘Scottish newspapers’ peddling endless deliberately distorted and made up ‘news’ to stop Scotland becoming a self-governing country, that might have sounded quite good.
But under the present circumstances it sounds like he is talking shite.
DerekM says:
30 January, 2017 at 2:52 pm
@ Graham
“Not sure where you got your thought from my post Graham.
And no i dont think yes would lose i think we would get robbed by the UK cheating scum once again in a rigged tory election fraud,that is why i advocate after A50 is signed and not before so we can avoid westminster trying to run the referendum count.”
Sorry Derek I wasn’t meaning to suggest you think Yes would lose I was talking about the 22% No voters who want a referendum within the next 2 years
Graeme
@Jack Collatin 12.43
Well said Jack.
Jeezy peeps, what a situation. Damned if you do, damned if you don’t. Get prepared for the traps set and waiting on either path.
Anyways – SNP/SNP it’ll be from me if need be. This kind of shite can wait until after independence.
For the immediate future we should let britnats continue on their self-destructive course.
@Giving Goose
See that Panelbase poll which the Times reported as support for Indy Ref 2 dropped to 27% an the Tories seized on it as did most of the media, whereas support is at 50% (49.46%).
That’s risen apparently from 32% in the last poll, that’s clearly why the unionists are so desperately and deliberately misrepresenting it, and becomes therefore a bit of a guideline.
50% want a referendum within or in 2 years. Which is along the lines of when Sturgeon and Salmond are saying it would be. So the planets are lining up at last, and the flat-earthers are having a spasm.
It’s bye bye UK.
O/T
Brexit meeting finished.
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/826084575478706180
https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/826085172479160321
Split voting cost the SNP two seats. There’s no question about it.
http://www.democraticaudit.com/2016/06/13/to-what-extent-was-there-split-voting-in-the-scottish-parliament-election-and-did-it-matter/
Legerwood @12.32
Just shows how adrift things can seem if you try to think like (t)Ruthless Davidson!
Found this-
Mike Russell on BBC R4 this morning – 1hour 50 mins in. discussing Brexit prior to the meeting in Cardiff this morning.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b08bynyw#play
Wullie B
is totally correct. Re fishing anything other than getting out of CFP is re-arranging deckchairs on the Titanic. Pre- Greece EU was a different place… iScotland will need Coastal State Status, the renewable resource of fish (for an unhealthy population) and access to it under UNCLOS as ‘an economic need of coastal communities’ (for job creation, processing,, engineers,ship building, fisheries protection). Sorry to use this phrase but it is ‘Best of Both Worlds’..Single market, Customs Union, renewable healthy food resources, freedom of movement..EEA EFTA.
Wise move to shift in the policy stays a bit at this time.
Started at 3.30pm
#Brexit on the agenda as MEPs of the @EPInstitutional Committee hold a discussion w/ @scotgov: Watch Live from 1530
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-live/en/committees/video?event=20170130-1500-COMMITTEE-AFCO …
No worries Graham and that one still stumps me,i mean why if they do not want independence do 22% want another indyref,i know some yoons are pretty thick and might want indyref2 so they can vote no which in itself is as mad as a box of frogs but not 22%.
I want indyref2 so i can vote no just does not cut it,why would you say on a poll you want indyref2 if you are going to vote no,could this be the no/remain vote changing their mind to yes.
“in 2016 the list vote share for pro-independence parties increased, but was more split than in 2011 – just as the Sunday Herald and others had demanded – yet the number of pro-indy MSPs went down.” – This sounds like evidence for your argument but it ignores the fact that the SNP took more constituency seats, which had a large effect on regional seats won.
Central Scotland
2011:
Constituency: SNP=6 seats, Labour=3 seats
Regional: SNP=3 seats (46.4% of vote),
2016:
Constituency: SNP=9 seats
Regional: SNP=0 seats (47.7% of vote), Tories=3 (16.1%), Greens=0 (4.7%)
So in 2016 the SNP increased their regional vote share in Central Scotland but actually got zero regional seats (3 fewer than in 2011). I put the Tories in there because it shows how many pro-indy seats would have been possible if 11.4% of the SNP’s vote had gone to the greens (not quite that simple, I know, but the greens would have received more seats per vote).
Glasgow
2011:
Constituency: SNP=5 seats, Labour=4 seats
Regional: SNP=2 seats (39.8%), Labour=3 (35.0%), Tories=1 (6.1%), Greens=1 (6.0%)
2016:
Constituency: SNP=9 seats
Regional: SNP=0 seats (44.8%), Labour=4 (23.8%), Tories=2 (11.9%), Greens=1 (9.4%)
Again, the SNP’s regional vote share increased and they got rewarded with zero seats (2 fewer than in 2011) because they took all the constituency seats. If 1.5% of the SNP’s regional votes had gone to green, we would have had an extra pro-indy seat.
Lothian
2011:
Constituency: SNP=8 seats, Labour=1 seat
Regional: SNP=0 seats (39.2%), Labour=3 (24.9%), Tories=2 (11.7%), Greens=1 (7.6%), Margo MacDonald=1 (6.6%)
2016:
Constituency: SNP=6 seats, Labour=1, Tories=1, LibDem=1
Regional: SNP=0 seats (36.2%), Tories=3 (22.9%), Labour=2 (20.8%), Greens=2 (10.6%)
I included Lothian because it is where I voted (SNP/Green in case you’re wondering). SNP got fewer regional votes but it didn’t change their regional vote share as it was already on zero. Interestingly, the regional indy-supporting vote share decreased from 53.4% in 2011 to 46.2% in 2016 but the number of indy-supporting seats remained the same (probably because the Tories, Labour and LibDem’s picked up a constituency seat each).
Apologies for the long post but it is a little more complicated than the original quote from Rev. Stu. You can’t look at the list (regional) vote/seat share in isolation.
If the SNP is likely to win all the constituency seats then votes for another pro-indy party will return more regional seats per vote. If the SNP doesn’t collect all the constituency seats then they are more likely to pick up regional seats if they get a large regional vote share too Another pro-indy party would still get a better return of seats for the same amount of votes, however, this only works if the regional votes for pro-indy parties aren’t spread too thin between multiple parties.
Is Nicola telling May today that Scotland should go for a Norway-type EU relationship thereby garnering the support of both remainers and leavers in Scotland?
While discussing this issue with friends, some of them unionists, at the weekend, I asked why NO voters would want another crack at an independence referendum,
To vote NO again?
Is it any wonder the buggers are worried.
Love this site. I am a ‘lurker’, mainly due to others making comments more succintly than I ever could.
More power to you rev. Tick tock.
Just had a leaflet delivered from list MSP Alison Harris. Only by studying the microscopic lettering at the bottom did I discover that she is a tory. It seems that Davidson’s policy of hiding her party’s name is to continue.
galamcennalath 10:10 am
You wrote: “At this absolutely crucial time on our road to Indy, everyone in the Yes camp should be staying focused on Indy. The sad truth is, not all will. If the Greens provoke an election right now, they will be rightly punished.”
How about: “At this absolutely crucial time on our road to (Brexit), everyone should be staying focused on Brexit. The sad truth is, not all will. If the (SNP) provoke an (Independence Referendum) right now, they will be rightly punished”
sauce, goose, etc ….
Curtice comments on this poll http://www.panelbase.com/media/polls/W7181w9tablesforpublication300117.pdf lack credibility when you calculate the proportions of SNP votes in the independence question. It’s about 46% and 40% rather than 50 and 46.5 for UK and Holyrood. Guess it’s easy to get a low support for independence if you under represent independence supporters.
@KraftyKris – ach you had to go and complicate it!
@Dan Huil – I don’t think it would please the ‘leavers’ if it meant being part of the Schengen Area, like Norway.
O/T Nicola Sturgeon comments from Belfast Telegraph:
“Nicola Sturgeon has said she will judge whether Scotland’s voice is going to be heard in the Brexit process before Article 50 is triggered, warning that “time is running out” to reach a compromise with the UK Government.”
“The First Minister’s comments will give rise to speculation that she could announce a second referendum on independence as early as March.”
https://archive.is/w4ujJ
@KraftyKris
…are you sure that the Greens are a pro Independence Party? A supporter of Independence has as their first objective the right of the people who live in Scotland to decide the politics of Scotland.
I put Scotland first and that means getting behind a party with a long proven record on fighting for Independence. The best way to achieve Independence is unity of purpose.
You like many others wish to split the vote for Party interest. A very short term focus on backing a united front may require longer term party policies to be put on hold for that interim.
What comes first your Nation or your Party.
What are the Green Party objectives? A cosy little pressure group in a Holyrood run by Westminster for another 300 years.
@Reluctant Nationalist
Not all leavers, but a sizable chunk.
@Dan Huil Interesting, where did you hear that? There’s seemingly an article about that in the Times today (behind a paywall and I wouldn’t link to it anyway).
Don’t know who the source is but there’s been murmurings to that effect for a wee while now. Anyone notice in Alec’s interview with Sky on Sunday morning that he was very careful to mention retaining EEA membership (not EU) and also cited Liechtenstein/Switzerland as the example for EEA/non-EEA member trade.
@Soutron
https://twitter.com/HamishMacdonell?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
Could be kite-flying of course.
SNP re Times story: “we are clear that remaining in the EU is the best position for Scotland, and that is what we are committed to.”
https://twitter.com/kacnutt/status/826097325001015298
Even more ridiculously, they’ve got a ratio of 4.77 Scots:English respondents when the actual ration is about 9.6
Harvie strikes me as being a bit dicey but not stupid, though on that I could of course be wrong. What I mean is surely but surely Harvie and the SGP can see that their influence in Holyrood in an independent Scotland would be considerably magnified compared to the sideshow that they represent within the union.
Don’t they get it? They can disagree about aspects of specific policies but if they had real smarts they’d know that in order to ultimately further their own agenda in Scotland they need to back independence to the hilt. It’s not even as if they’d have to make some fundamental existentialist shift like slab or whatever, just get behind what’s right for Scotland.
I’ve never voted Green before and certainly never will before independence. After then I may do but if they make it harder to achieve than it already is then I don’t think I could vote for them ever.
As for Bella, the SH ad nauseum as far as I’m concerned they can go take a running jump, preferably over the nearest cliff.
SNP X 2 (or 3, 4 etc)
I see things differently from many of the commentators.
The Green MSPs were elected on their manifesto. MSPs should fight for their manifesto pledges, not throw them away at the chance of being kingmakers like the LibDems did to have their illicit affair with the Tories at Westminster.
Also, very importantly, there may be quite a number of YES supporters who are not big fans of the SNP’s other policies as lacking imagination and being too conservative in more ways than one and regard some of their MSPs as no better than the “jobs for the boys” former Labour MSPs they replaced. I am one of them who feel this way.
Most importantly of all. If the SNP and others who want Scotland to have independence and want to build a better country country, then the both the SNP and Greens cannot have it all their own way.
I feel both the SNP and Greens could keep to their manifesto pledges and work out a compromise budget.
If the SNP want it all their own way with less than 50% of the popular vote, that would remind me of the Westminster style of governments which so many of us despise.
If there is a Scottish election, I would probably give my first vote to the SNP, but I would feel good about giving my second vote to the Greens – especially if that means increasing the pressure on the SNP to implement policies that help protect the enviroment and promote a society that reduces poverty and lack of opportunity for the disadvantaged.
She nervously glances behind anticipating hammers after dot crime.
macart @ 3.21
The last thing that we need is a snap election now before Brexit bites.
I see the odd McDougall Marauder has tip toed on here to suggest that we conflate Holyrood/ Second EU Referendum/ Indy ref 2 into a single issue election, and ‘bring it on’.
Unionists Brexiteers, Trumpette Appeasers would like nothing better.
Indyref 2 will be at the Scottish people’s time of choosing. Not at the whim of an insignificant Lib Dem politician, who daily appears more and more ridiculous. I reckon Cole Hamilton who rose without trace will be taking over soon.
Patrick Harvie seemed to have a bit about him; I’m beginning to wonder now.
Nobody in their right mind would bring down a Government because it did not introduce a 60% rate of income tax, which at the moment is clearly against the will of the Scottish people.
MacKay is diverting hundreds of millions directly to shools and joined up Health and Care for elderly patients leaving hospital; the precise ‘driving down decision making to its lowest level’ that Harvie and the Greens advocated.
LA’s can raise CT by 3%, again local revenue raising powers for which Opposition Parties have campaigned over the period of the CT freeze.
McAveety is raising £7.5 million from this poor pensioner alone, as GCC increases CT by the max 3%.
MacKay’s budget is hardly the result of a Committee charged with designing a horse, but coming up with a camel.
Most of his proposals are tepid to say the least, and remarkable given the 40% cuts to LA funding Ruth Davidson has imposed on English Councils.
The road is long, Patrick, with many a winding turn.
Ruth on STV news today was obviously hacked off with Big T, and her Party’s ‘I have in my hand a piece of paper’ appeasement following Trump’s first 7 days.
And so she should effin’ be.
Indyref 2? September ’18.
I’m following your stuff avidly, Sam.
Perhaps it’s time for your own blog? Just saying, like.
Re SNP changing policy from EU to EEA/EFTA.
I honestly think it’s mischief making.
EEA/EFTA is on the table as part of the compromise offered to WM. Which they will, of course reject – not if, but how soon. Nicola seems to be pushing for a yay/nae prior to Article50.
This combined with the probably ejection of all SNP amendments at WM would move us well towards IndyRef2.
Personally I think it is inconceivable that the SG will go into a Brexit triggered IndyRef2 on a ticket of ‘Scotland outside the EU’.
62% voted for the EU, not something else. That solid mandate is a foundation of SG’s arguments.
Then we have the EU. IMO we can expect a positive response to Indy within the EU. It would’nt surprise me if it was very positive as a counter to the hard anti EU stance of London. How would the EU feel if Scotland made moves which could be interpreted as we are no better than the Little Englanders? If we commit to the EU, the EU will commit to us – I’m certain.
I understand the attractions of being like Norway, in every sense. However, we have a long way to go and much work to be done shredding the shackles of UKOK rule. We need the EU fully on side.
@ KraftyKris at 3.45
Which is exactly why it is so disingenuous/dishonest to promote tactical voting on the list. People should vote for the party/candidate they want to be represented by, not try to guess how tens of thousands of other voters might behave in two separate ballots, each with its own system.
not sure why bella has decided to drag up this issue again, while I agree with stu, we can not rule out another GE or HE in the near future, it seems like a distant possibility
however, what is certain is the council elections followed by the indyref2 campaign. if yes, then 2 years of negotiations followed by the 1st independent holyrood election
we must, i repeat, we must lock out a unionist majority for that session. many people may thin it is down and dusted after a yes victory but unless we control holyrood during that critical term, the unionists could force through indyref3 and undo the indy settlement. we would find ourselves in the same position the unionists did after indyref1
to that end, i would argue tactical voting in holyrood 2020 but i think the other indy parties are not trusted enough to gain the support mass support needed.
I proposed a new party was formed for just this purpose for 2016 but it wasnt taken seriously.
various options, SNP2, YES, even a WOS party.
we should revisit this option when the next holy rood election comes round. it would be a 5 year job only, if we succeed in blocking the unionists for 5 years after indy negotiations, I think we could be certain that the union would be over for good
we would need
a name
a simple constitution
a simple manifesto that everyone in the yes movement can and would agree on with a commitment to thwart the unionists at every opportunity and support the ruling indy party and or coalition
a crowd fund to pay the candidate fees and campaign material
5 x 8 volunteers to stand on each of the 8 lists
(they would have to resign any existing party members)
this would go far to removing the indy squabbling, tactical voting could only work if everyone supported it
eg I dont know if robert peffers (or stu campbell for that matter) is snp or not, but i have no doubt he fully supports an indy scotland and would never support any unionist ploy, etc
would I vote for him? hell yes, would you?
I’ve never voted Green before and certainly never will before independence.
After, I may do, but if they make it harder, I could never vote for them ever.
SNP * 2
ot
the SNP is thinking about abandoning full EU membership as its preferred option for an independent Scotland. Instead senior party figures are considering whether the party’s policy should be for Scotland to have a Norway-style relationship with the EU
snigger, dads, chic, told ya
remember where you heard it first folks 🙂
it is belter of an idea, it will guarentee a land slide yes in indyref2
Clootie, I don’t really have a solid party preference and last time I checked the greens were an independence supporting party.
I’m not really sure you understood my comment, I did say that the SNP would get more regional seats if they didn’t win most of the constituency seats. I think voting SNPx2 makes sense in the South of Scotland where the SNP have taken less than half the constituency seats in 2011 and 2016.
In 2011 the SNP collected 8 constituency seats in the Lothian region, that was a large factor for me voting SNP/Green in 2016. Even though they only collected 6 constituency seats on 2016, I still feel like I made the right choice.
Statement o the brexit meeting
http://news.gov.scot/news/joint-ministerial-committee
Gullible independence supporters buy The Sunday Herald and The National to keep The Herald alive.
I become more of a conspiracy theorist every day.
How did we get into the state of describing the Consituency votes a 1/first and the Regional List votes 2/second.
Most people vote for a party, and in that respect, the Regional List vote could claim to be the main vote. In some ways it’s you choosing which party you wish to govern.
However, consider the way all this was set up in the first place. The idea was to deny the SNP a majority. It was assumed a coalition of several Unionist parties would keep Scotland under control forever.
If that was the primary objective then it would make sense to split the vote between two parties, any two almost.
Thus I propose that the misinterpretation of the two votes as 1&2, and open to being viewed as pseudo-STV, was intentional and part of the design.
Thanks, Nana.
Interesting session in the EU just now.
Spain taking the party line but admitting it’s nothing personal to Scotland; ‘Rules is Rules’ and we have to stick by them i.e. the UK is the member state.
Chair of the committee says the point of today is to hear from Scotland, N. Ireland and Gibraltar. N. Ireland not able to present their case so Scotland and Gibraltar are the guests of the Committee to have an opportunity to hear their thoughts on Brexit and Implications.
Hyslop, at one point, made the point it is not just about Scottish people but also, how do we look after EU nationals living and working in Scotland.
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/ep-live/en/committees/video?event=20170130-1500-COMMITTEE-AFCO …
@sensibledave says: 30 January, 2017 at 3:53 pm
” … If the (SNP) provoke an (Independence Referendum) right now, they will be rightly punished””
I couldn’t type fore laughing, sensibledave
Bring it on, now who was it said that? Was it someone famous?
Anyway! Yes Dave I hope the Scottish people will punish the SNP – like they did in the last election, and the one before that, and the one before that too.
Now perhaps you just are not very perceptive – but. In spite of being in government, longer than most political parties do without losing their popularity. The SNP have been increasing their share of the votes.
So, yes, they did lose their overall majority at Holyrood but that had nothing to do with their share of the vote decreasing. They lost the overall majority because right from the very leaderships of the opposition parties they mainly got in from the list vote.
The bulk of the opposition got in by the second, or third counts.
The thing is that a list only party “cheat” has already been attempted by Labour and the coop candidates and knocked back. Any organised coalition designed to reset your seat count for purposes of gaining more list seats than your share of support will fail. It’s not that no one takes the idea seriously, it’s that it’s already been thought through.
All of which will be rendered moot if every party but the Conservatives vote for a move towards a form of STV even if only on the list.
Nana @4.55
That statement’s definitely red-hot ‘off the press’.
I would say, a blistering statement from Nicola.
Nana says:
Also, certainly not coincidental …..
http://news.gov.scot/news/scotland-in-europe-1
“And we also believe that the European Parliament – which represents the voice of EU citizens – has the right to challenge whether the Article 50 negotiations respect the rights of citizens in all parts of the UK.”
….
“As a nation which voted overwhelmingly to remain within the European Union we seek your solidarity and support.”
Crazycat, I understand your point but for me an independent Scotland, with a proportional representation voting system, is the goal. Then it would be really easy to vote for who you wanted. Right now I’m not overly fussed if the pro-independence majority is made up of solely SNP politicians or a mix with the greens.
I do think if you look at previous votes in your constituency you can get a rough idea of how to vote tactically. The problem is the voting system we have now is designed to make it difficult for the SNP to hold a majority. It was mentioned in the comments above that a regional/list party that was committed to independence would be a good idea, I would agree.
schrodingers cat
Few years ago, Alex Salmond was asked by a journo, maybe that Jamie Ross, what he thought about WoS and he was a tad sniffy, to say the least. Something like, anything with Reverend in it is dubious. Now you can see what he was heading off at the pass.
Last thing Scotland needs now is a new new party. Keep it simple stupid, is what I say:D
Meg merrilees says:
Combined with the ‘request for assistance’ to the EU released at much the same time (above), I see a plan coming together.
Twitter …
Philip Sim? @BBCPhilipSim
After JMC meetings with Theresa May in Cardiff, Nicola Sturgeon tells BBC that “the next few weeks are going to be really critical”
And who said 2017 would be boring? We aren’t out of January yet!
Dan Huil says:
30 January, 2017 at 3:46 pm
Is Nicola telling May today that Scotland should go for a Norway-type EU relationship thereby garnering the support of both remainers and leavers in Scotland?
… No support from this remainder. Norway has a Trade Deal with the EU, not membership. Membership yes or no was the fulcrum of the Brexit referendum. Whatever mandate and momentum that Scottish majority delivered for staying in the EU is pissed up against the wall if you accept Brexit and and try to secure lesser Trade Deal with EFTA, especially as a sub-sovereign “region” of the UK and in the teeth of Westminster’s certain resistance.
It is sovereignty we need, and with that comes the main event prize, which is continued membership status in the EU. We have a powerful mandate from the Brexit referendum to hold on to our EU membership. Why throw it all away?
Let’s deal with one problem at a time. Stop following the Unionist agenda with its Europhobic prejudices and imbalances, and start making the case for staying in Europe, so that fewer than 1 in 3 Independentists want to exit the EU. With a progressive campaign, we can raise support for EU membership as we raise support for Indy. Don’t forget, just like the case for Independence, the EU we know today is still being brought to you courtesy of the same despicable BBC which gave legs to Brexit and Farage’s UKIP, and even got UKIP Coburn elected to represent Scotland’s interests in Europe. Demand that our “media” starts telling the truth about Europe, not pedalling more xenophobic bile and anti European prejudice and rhetoric, and perhaps hostility towards Europe will properly realign itself.
@Mr Peffers.
I hope you’re right Robert. Because I don’t trust Theresa May to make the right call about Brexit. She is weak, and strategically niaive. Just look at her emphemeral opinions, a remainder who is now an ardent Hard Brexiteer. Trump has her tied in knots. A soft Brexit with access to the Single Market has turned into the Hard Brexit which the entire continent of Europe envisaged on the very day Brexit was announced. Being uncharted territory, I am unsure how likely it is for a Hard Brexit to shake out as a Hard and Dirty Brexit, with no negotiated exit whatsoever, but the possibility seems all too credible.
Westminster has already waffled on about the deal it’s going to get from Europe, but in reality, it has just revealed it has no grasp of what it can or cannot get from Europe. It is not in control. It’s talk of cherry picking the articles it liked and cobbling together a bespoke UK friendly trading arrangement with Europe was always idle conjecture which nobody except Westminster took seriously.
With an acute shortage of qualified negotiating personelle to cope with exit negotiations, negotiations of tariffs and quotas, and alternative Trade Deals, it doesn’t auger well for two years of productive troublefree discourse. Should the negotiations fail, or break down, or even the possibility of agreement be recognised as untenable, then Brexit could very easily become the overnight reality in much less than two years, and Scotland’s fate outside the EU may be sealed by default. It won’t be pretty, it won’t be quiet, but Theresa May will have hauled her UK out of Europe, even if it is kicking and screaming. Perhaps dragging Scotland out might be the only redeeming act of salvage she can boast from her thoroughly miserable tenure as Prime Minister.
Rock of ages -give it a rest. You still buying the Mail?
You read a rubbish article you discard it. Plenty of other good things in it. Did you no read it?
Only “trolls” like myself have been advocating voting only for the SNP at all elections until after independence.
And warning for a long time about Harvie and the Greens:
“The Greens (and RISE) would hold the SNP to ransom if they managed to hold the balance of power after the 2016 election.
Vote SNP+SNP.”
Who heavily promoted The Greens (and RISE) before the election?
The “independence supporting” The National, the younger sister of The Herald and The Sunday Herald.
a YES party then heed
nothing to stop wos from forming a political party called YES, is there?
whats in a name?
Im not sure i disagree with alex, it isnt a good idea for wos or the snp to be a coalition of sorts, the snp would be liable for what stu and other wossers said, and vice versa.
makes no sense in the current climate of the anti indy bbc and msm, its not as if they need an excuse
@Roger
Thanks for that, already used it on another blog.
@cat
Perhaps the SNP are going to float both possibilities, EU continuation, and EFTA.
@Rock
To save you typing here’s the rest of your back catalogue:
“Robert Peffers (bad)
sovereignty (no)
colony (irrigation)
English
at least one grandparent (Scottish)
lawyers (bad)
300 years (another)
UDI
National (gullible) – oh, done that one
Europe (hypocrites)
Nicola (slow)
Robert Peffers (bad)“
BBC report on the Joint Council Brexit meeting today in Cardiff – as usual, only a spoken report of Nicola’s words – we rarely get to hear her speak; and Fluffy and (t)Ruthless get the last word.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38790544
Fluffy now thinks that it’s not so much a question of whether Scotland should have a differentiated position, more a question of whether Scotland would benefit from a different position.
There’s a howler of a mistake half way down where it says that the Welsh FM welcomed a firm commitment from TMay that Brexit ” would to be use as ‘cover’ for a land grab on devolved matters’
You might just want to revisit that Carwyn!
Yeah she was last funny in the early eighties but I notice Tracey Ullman is doing a sketch this Friday featuring Mhari Black and Nicola kidnapping JK Rowling and forcing her to support Scottish independence! I’m astonished our movement has been noticed to that level. We MUST be rattling them!
From today’s JMC:
“It is also increasingly clear that Brexit must result in a fundamental reconsideration of where power lies in the UK. It will not be sufficient to simply give back to Scotland the powers that are already ours, we must see a clear indication from the UK Government that there will be a major transfer of powers to the Scottish Parliament once the UK leaves the EU…
Time is now fast running out for the UK Government to show how it intends to respect Scotland’s interests. But if it becomes clear that we are headed off the cliff edge of a hard Brexit, and without the ability to avert that economically disastrous outcome, then the Prime Minister should be in no doubt that we intend to give the people of Scotland a choice over their future and on what kind of country we want to be.”
Gawn yersel, First Minister.
KraftyKris
How did the SNP win in the 2007 election and break the designed shackles of a Labour/LibDem manipulation of Holyrood. It was due to people switching from Labour, LibDem and even Tory. In recent years I know several people who have left parties of the far left to join the SNP.
Did any of these people give up on their personal political ideals…NO! They decided that one clear objective had to come first in order for THEIR dream to be argued….Independence.
What is clear is that those who work within the broad church of the SNP have managed to hold together for the best interest of Scotland. A bond from ex-SSP to ex-Tory.
You and others who argue for the split vote for Greens insult those who have come together.
Can you imagine a return to pre 2007. Who would you argue for in a vote split then?
If we created a new YES party tomorrow it would still have to run Holyrood until Independence was achieved and the policies of the YES party would not be good enough for the Greens.
Scotland will be shaped by its people AFTER Independence. The only major block to unity is now the vote splitters and their arrogance…the rest of us can fight under one banner but they are special.
especially as a sub-sovereign “region” of the UK
the present compromise by nicola is efta/eea within the uk, lie it or not, however, i dont know anyone here or in my yes group who believes that westminster would ever agree to any of Nicola’s terms, regardless of what they were. (indeed some of the eu mebers have also rejected Nicolas compromise, norway included) this is a phony war of rhetoric before indyref2 is launched
what is now being proposed is that an independent scotland would apply (and be accepted) to the efta/eea membership. this is the eu background that indyref2 will be fought against and I think it is a belter of an idea. yes will win by a landslide. it is a game changer
@schrodingers cat
I think people that read Wings may have heard about EFTA first from Scott Minto in this article from 2012. A great explanation of the differences between full EU membership and that of EFTA/EEA.
Not saying you didn’t bring it up in a post though pre 2012 🙂
http://wingsoverscotland.com/so-long-and-thanks-for-all-the-fish/comment-page-1/
yesindyref2
@cat
Perhaps the SNP are going to float both possibilities, EU continuation, and EFTA.
nope, they are going with my suggestion, efta/eea, maybe alex and nicola distance themselves from wos, but we have enough anecdotal evidence to suggest they do read wos
next time we meet up, i’ll by you a pint if im wrong dads
Interesting assessment of party motivations for snap election. Also worth looking at the motivation of the leaders. Ruth Davidson would probably love it. Kezia Dugdale knows not only will her party get wiped out but she will likely get her P45. She needs time (and a miracle) to turn round Labour’s fortunes. Patrick Harvie is in the best place he is ever likely to be before independence when voting patterns could change. With Kez likely to cave in self interest Patrick will have to roll over to avoid risking his position of prefered SNP partner.
schrodingers cat says:
30 January, 2017 at 5:26 pm
a YES party then heed
I know. But its interesting that an old war horse like Salmond scoped ahead towards this kind of formation.
It would be fantastic but it takes years, decades to get to a level of electable maturity. We’re not UKIPers are we, cheap far right and cunning tubthumpers like a Farage or Eddie Hitler, can ofcourse make an impact, with spectacular BBC backing. But what “hole” would a new YES party be filling? Look at RISE. It takes ages to get loads of differing people singing from the same hymn sheet and in to effective battle formations, especially in Scotland.
Stay the coarse, comrade:D
yesindyref2,
“@Rock
To save you typing here’s the rest of your back catalogue:”
I had consistently called for voting SNP only and not giving the list vote to the Greens or RISE.
I was right, wasn’t I?
Rev. Stuart Campbell,
“That very much appears to be Professor Curtice saying that tactical switching to the Greens DID in fact damage the SNP (he goes on to say that it cost the Nats two seats, and with them their majority)”
It’s absolutely right the the Scottish government continues to build bridges with EU ministers. It’s also right that the SG combines with the EU in the most pragmatic way possible to achieve an end to the union with England.
First things first: an end to the union with England.
@Jack Collatin
Much like the Rev, I reckon a deal will be the most reasonable outcome on the budget front. On the outside chance that a party or parties do feel like chancing their arm by instigating a snap election?
Anyone even considering this action, the removal or chaining of the Scottish public’s right to self determination at a time of such constitutional and economic upheval deserves nothing less than utter decimation at the ballot. It would, quite rightly, be seen as the most utter betrayal of public trust and act of political sabotage in Scotland’s long history.
The Tories? I expect nothing less. Betrayal of the public is kinda what they do. To Labour, the Greens and Libdems I would urge them to think long and hard about what they do next. The next few months are about a damn sight more than a budget they know is perfectly workable. Its about more than party politics, positioning, posturing and tribalism.
The next few months could see the working rights and inalienable human rights of every Scot under imminent threat. That’s a damn site more important than who does and doesn’t get taxed this year.
Dratted auto-correct…’sight’. 🙁
Well said Clootie@5.33pm
1,400,000 Signatures on the Trump Petition at 6pm today.
Your Caring, Sharing. Listening, Desperate Tory Party couldn’t give a damn if it reaches 10 million.
Huh, Plebs trying rule their own country. What next?
Clootie, I wouldn’t advocate splitting an SNP vote in 2007 or before because they weren’t winning a majority of constituency seats. The situation is different now.
I’m not trying to insult anyone and I don’t think I’m being arrogant. I think some regions it is absolutely fine to vote SNPx2 but for other regions there are huge numbers voting SNP on the list and it’s returning zero MSPs.
Look at the regional vote/seat share in 2016 for the SNP;
Central Scotland: 129,082 (47.7%) = 0 seats, Glasgow: 111,101 (44.8%) = 0 seats, 118,546 (36.2%) = 0 seats, Mid Scotland and Fife: 120,128 (41.3%) = 0 seats, North East Scotland: 137,086 (44.7%) = 0 seats, West Scotland: 135,827 (42.2%) = 0 seats.
IMO it feels like a wasted list vote but I understand that there is always the risk that they don’t get a majority of constituency seats and then don’t get a regional seat share either.
Link to the independent reporting on T May being booed in Cardiff.
It’s a video and I know some don’t like these direct links. But it is good to see her being on the receiving end of people’s anger.
https://twitter.com/chunkymark/status/826098929141940224
Be interesting to see if the bbc report it.
* That 118,546 (36.2%) = 0 seats was for Lothian.
Women for Independence got a good showing and interview on STV.
WOS archive links for May 2013 now over on O/T.
Folks, please note, also included are 4 links from April 2013 which failed to appear last night despite several attempts to post them.
I have been reliably informed that WordPress should not be letting comments which contain 4 or more links through. With this in mind i’ve started posting the archive links in sets of 3.
Also, doesn’t look like that big job is coming off for me so meanwhile i’ll just badger on but if i suddenly disappear at any time i’ll be back at the first opperchancity.
Enjoy!
Bloody hell
https://twitter.com/PeterGrantMP/status/826105905586511876
Tasmina raises point of order
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/826125709697568768
Breeks says:
Exactly as I see it.
I don’t know if people are getting the compromise put to WM mixed up with how Indy would be fought. EFTA in compromise, full EU membership with Indy.
There will be no move away from EU as part of Indy.
The Rev agrees and was offering a £50 bet on twitter to anyone who thought EFTA was genuine.
The EFTA/EEA with Indy is starting to smell a bit like DevoMax …. a dead cat thrown into the middle to the table to derail plans.
Thanks Fiona MacInnes, as a fisherman for 20+ years coming from a fishing family I know a lot of t more than most on here, Yes Scotland had its faults in the 70s and 80s with black fish but times have changed and folk mention Iceland, A country that’s had controls over its own waters same as Faroe and Norway and all three nations biomass results are top and they don’t copy CFP policy yet EU policy has failed the industry with quotas and discard bans, which have been proven to have failed
“KraftyKris”
😀 Love it! 😀
Theresa May tells Ireland there will be no problem over the border issue, trade and movement.
Well that knocks the Scotland concerns out the ball park. Can’t tell one country one thing and then threaten another with a different set of proposals. Would not look too good.
Honestly …I would buy the Daily Record before I would buy The Herald …and that is saying something!
Recently (say the last year or so), the Herald has literally taken over from the Scotsman for its BritNat stance. As to the notion that Sunday Herald is the one-day-in-the-week that the owners give over to print a more nationalist agenda is just nonsense. The Sunday Herald is simply the wolf in sheep’s clothing.
Right now, we just vote SNP on everything. Aye, I like the Greens, but we all know there is a greater urgency here as well as the greater goal. Nothing should stand in its way.
If Scotland should become independent, then I would give the Greens a serious look …but right now …SNP on everything!
Wonder why Bercow is not very nice to SNP MPs?
Wonder why Bercow leaves SNP MPs last to speak when most have left and definitely no TV cameras?
Wonder why Bercow curtails SNP MPs replies and chides them as if they were children?
Wonder why…………?
@breeks
Triggering of Article 50 is the key.
Call Indyref2 and May calls GE what happens?
“Old age and treachery will overcome youth and skill, every time”.
KraftyKris
…and I think you miss my point. We unite, we compromise to remain united.
Do the Greens really need to make their swaggering stance on tax before Independence?
It does not help the Independence movement to bicker over “a principle” at this time. I may back the policy 100 percent but it is still division.
It is not about arithmetic, it is about sending a clear message to Westminster.
The SNP could fracture into 5 parties right now and WIN more seats by non contest agreements at election time.
I think people have to get back to what we are fighting for.
The Greens are sending out a clear message every day….”This is how an Independent Scotland should be”. The rest of us are fighting for that Independence in order to have the power to say how it should be.
Let’s agree to disagree on principle versus politics.
I think the stars are aligning for Scotland, when you look at the overall picture.
Negotiations with the EU will not go well for many reasons as we all know.
On top of that Mrs May is aligning herself to a Narcissistic nightmare whose behaviour will become more extreme as he is challenged. The UK public will be looking on and believe me, you have seen nothing yet.Mr Trump will be capable of much worse.
The Scottish public will feel the effects of both simultaneously, and that may concentrate minds.
Will we want to remain friends with a very disturbed man who leads the most powerful nation on earth
JLT
Daily Record v Sunday Herald. DR more Indy ? Now that is a laugh. Torquill and his Ulster mate must be laughing at that.
Yes the Sunday Herald has unionist stuff in it. Do I like it No. Can I put up with – probably.
Are you prepared for the Daily Records Vow 2 or more? Just tell t he truth you like the horses/ football
I just noticed that the BBC (voice of UK government) is always mentioning Trump has banned people from x,y,z countries – “controversial travel ban on seven mainly Muslim countries”
Is there a reason for this qualification
Does the executive order actually say this or is the BBC making it up to enhance Trump’s racist credential deliberately
Its not very nice of them given TM just had tea with him
It seems May knew about the Trump Muslim ban before she left Washington.
Yes, like..
‘INDEPENDENCE IN THE EU..
FOR PENSION SECURITY,
WORKERS RIGHTS,
FREE ENTERPRISE
AND MASSIVE DEFENCE CUTS*’
*the true reason for Brexit.
E.U. (Defence spending) ‘harmonisation’ will ruin the home counties subsidised hegemony. What a shame, not.
Breeks says:
…. the main event prize, which is continued membership status in the EU. We have a powerful mandate from the Brexit referendum to hold on to our EU membership. Why throw it all away?
we wouldnt be throwing it away, efta/eea is a holding pen, a temporary position, to win indyref2. if we lose we are out completely
galamcennalath says:
Exactly as I see it.
I don’t know if people are getting the compromise put to WM mixed up with how Indy would be fought. EFTA in compromise, full EU membership with Indy.
thanks gala but i know exactly the difference between the compromise efta option and the option of efta for indy scotland
maybe you are confusing the present status quo scotland has with full eu membership? something nicola does not have a mandate to propose unless she holds another euref after we are indy?
There will be no move away from EU as part of Indy
the status quo 63% voted for no longer exists even for the uk. if it were to drop brexit and ask to come back, do you think the eu would allow them to keep their rebate and opt outs? do you think an indy scotland, even if it was considered the successor state, would inherit these opt outs too?
just what eu deal do you think you will get from the eu after indy, and do you think you have a mandate to decide for everyone in scotland that we should just accept the euro without consulting anyone?
The Rev agrees and was offering a £50 bet on twitter to anyone who thought EFTA was genuine.
as a compromise? no, i dont now anyone who believed that this compromise was anything but rhetoric,
but as means to win indyref2 i think it is a brilliant idea
the rev also believes we should have another euref once we are indy to decide outstanding eu issues and to help us win indyref2. so do I
The EFTA/EEA with Indy is starting to smell a bit like DevoMax …. a dead cat thrown into the middle to the table to derail plans.
sounds very profound, but not sure what that means, could you point out exactly what you dont lie about efta/eea?
Any official coalition with the SNP will be ruled by the Electoral Commission as being a single party. If we’re lucky they’ll do so before the election rather waiting until after. A sneaky unionist party would not only wait till after the event but also complain if the combined elector spend was above the limit for a single party.
The most we can afford is an unofficial alliance of two parties. Obviously if the minor party are fielding a candidate in a constituency where they risk the election of one from your prefered party in your region then it’s far more important that you cast both votes for that party.
Also obvious is that regardless of whether it increases the chances of a combined majority or not there’s no way a pre-election coalition there’s no way the SNP can ever officialy advocate a split vote without risking the wrath of the EC
Ah! I know what the solution is. Trump will arrive at the palace to be greeted by the Queen: “You’ll have had your tea then”.
https://cambridgeanalytica.org/
These are kind of guys we really need now.
https://cambridgeanalytica.org/casestudies
Heil Trump.
@Hamish100
LOL …as I said, mate
Honestly …I would buy the Daily Record before I would buy The Herald …and that is saying something!
…which means never! They’re all …godawful!!
Seriously Hamish. I haven’t bought a newspaper since September 2014. I haven’t even bought a copy of the National as I felt that it sits on the fence too much (my workmate at the time used to buy a daily copy, and I would have a peek at it. Left me rather disappointed).
As the Rev has highlighted a number of times, all our newspaper, bar one, are London-owned. That is all one needs to realise, and then realise the agenda.
Nope …sticking with this site and on-line media.
I wouldn’t worry about EFTA for Scotland alone. Scotland’s role in this is a cross between abused spouse and gimp. It doesn’t matter how differing Brexit deals for the devolved regions might actually benefit the UK as a whole May and her goverment will take the bullies option and lash out at us to show how strong they are. So even a hint at Sturgeon being ready to compromise on that will ensure that it won’t be on offer.
Given the way Mr Trump fixated on the size of the crowds that turn out for him then the obvious response if his visit goes ahead is not to go along to watch the procession or any other related events.
Alternatively if you do go stand with your back to the procession. That is what the WW2 veterans did when the Emperor of Japan visited.
CH4 news just now suggested they might get round the crowd, or lack thereof, by holding the visit at Balmoral. I should imagine the Scottish response to that would be to fly banners from every mountain round about telling him where to go.
They wouldn’t dare do Balmoral, would they?
Imagine…..
@Orri 7:18pm
Good point, Orri. Obviously I have no way of knowing for sure but it wouldn’t surprise me if the SG and the EU have jointly agreed to make things as difficult as possible for Westminster, and the EFTA kite-flying is just one part of that overall strategy. Whatever, any plan is a good one if it takes us a step closer to the ending of the union with England.
Heed tracker
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/big-data-cambridge-analytica-brexit-trump?trk_source=homepage-lede
RE: Balmoral
Yes they would. If they and he felt for even an instant they could rub the Scottish electorates nose in it and take the splash of his arrival and the possible threat of riot off the streets of London?
Yes, they would.
Best hope in event of complete failure to listen to the public over this idiocy? Their ego wins out and they go for Buck Hoose regardless.
May has made a public statement and invitation. Its put up or back down. Anyone see May backing down from a state invite to the POTUS? Even him?
schrodingers cat says:
Today’s EFTA thing began with that Times article which then spread among the media. Their enthusiasm makes me very suspicious.
In a similar way I am always suspicious of people bringing up DevoMax as an option. We’ve been there, done that, and still people appear to seriously believe it.
“Throwing a dead cat on the table” is a political (maybe business too) tactic for forcing a change of direction. It gets attention and detracts from existing plans you don’t like.
My question would be, who re-starts the DevoMax nonsense, and why? I am equally suspicious of where this EFTA and Indy idea actually came from, and why?
As an outcome, I would have nothing against Indy with EFTA.
As a strategy, given where we are and they way things look like developing, it seems to me off at a tangent.
Indy is my priority and I am certain EU membership makes it much more likely.
In IndyRef2 we will have to sell security and stablilty versus chaos and unknowns of Brexit. Continued EU membership seems an important feature of that secure future. Uncertainly over the EU was one to reasons we lost IR1. This time we have the opportunity to turn that negative completely around into a positive.
If we trigger IR2 because of Brexit, we aren’t triggering it because of Tory atrocious behaviour, we are triggering because of being dragged out of the EU. The case becomes weakened if we opt an out of the EU solution. That’s a harder sell.
Most of all, as a personal opinion, we need the EU thoroughly on side with Indy. In my mind the two press releases within minutes of each other, Nicola’s statement plus the other which is asking the EU for help, are part of the same plan.
Lenny Hartley says:
30 January, 2017 at 7:30 pm
Heed tracker
Its fascinating is it not, the psychology of YES? But we live it every day in Scotland, tory BBC led media massages the living shit out of our nat psyche 24/7. Why are some immune to it all, why do some react back at it, how to get in its face and how much does it all cost. We have to pay for yoon psych wars, which is a drag.
Yep, a good day all round. In one fell swoop, the border problem solved and a countdown clock of two months has began. May has until Article 50 is triggered for her to compromise, (No chance of that), and then it is party time.
The noise you hear in the background, well that’s the popcorn machine.
@ Wullie B – I too come from a fishing area. Is it not true that Thatcher ended the practice of family co-operative shares in boats and handed ownership of the licences to one designated skipper. Most then sold their licence to Spanish skippers, retired on their millions and so ended much of the fishing industry in the NE in one generation?
Wullie,
Your history is all over the plaice.
“Yes Scotland had its faults in the 70s and 80s with black fish but times have changed and folk mention Iceland”
Blackfish crime is a pretty recent crime. And “faults in the 70s and 80s” actually means, all fish North Sea and Atlantic pelagic species close to extinction, with every fish, juvenile included caught, by an industry that had been left to its own devices.
The idea that our seas are handed back to the same industry is disastrous. And blackfishing is a crime that could well push recovering fish stocks to extinction again.
Why is that Iceland and Norway can manage their fish stocks?
Iceland fish industry actually lobbies its government for more restriction, especially cod, not less. You can buy frozen Icelandic cod in Phoenix, Arizona.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-north-east-orkney-shetland-17153085
NE Scotland, Orkney & Shetland
Skippers and firm fined almost £1m for part in £63m ‘black fish’ scam
24 February 2012
From the section NE Scotland, Orkney & Shetland
BBC saying fake news threatens democracy.
Literally don’t know whether to laugh or cry.
No one would disagree with that, would they?
Well, yes. The perpetrators of fake news have their agendas to work to. Which takes me back to the BBC. Irony was never in it!
Going O/T from the excellent points being made here, but looking out the windae, thousands are on the street protesting about Donald.
Something that I can’t quite grasp though, would appreciate an explanation if anyone can help
2003 – George W pinpoints 7 countries he want’s to ‘interfere’ with – Iraq,Iran, Somalia, Yemen, Syria etc, he starts to bomb some of them, CIA in others. Protests about the war in Iraq.
2009 – Obama comes into office, he looks at the list of 7 and continues to bomb them, except more drones used. Silence
2015 – Obama under executive order commences visa restrictions from those 7 countries, in effect, the ‘Muslim Ban’. Not one peep from the world.
2017- Trump extends the visa restrictions on those 7 countries already identified and impacted by Obama’s already’ in force’ policy. The world goes f*ckin’ mental.
Has everyone just woken up from 14 year coma ?
@ heedtracker – it helps to stop watching crappy TV, and cancel your license. I can testify to that.
Mhairi Black up against it with a Heil Trumper, C4 teatime news just there. Trumpers be crazxy but she took in her stride.
Donald Trump’s real name is Fuckface Von Clownstick. And he cant wait to meet Brenda and her mobsters.
JLT wrote:
“As the Rev has highlighted a number of times, all our newspapers, bar one, are London-owned. That is all one needs to realise, and then realise the agenda.”
Genuine question – What’s the one?
@galamcennalath 7.55
Have to agree about fake news and BBC. Not a lot of self awareness at PQ is there?
Question though, what happens with the likes of VIS, Private Eye, The Onion, The Daily Mash and other satirical sites.
Would even Greg Moodie be subject to censorship? Because, let’s face it, this would be the logical direction this is going.
Has everyone just woken up from 14 year coma ?
Yes. We stopped watching TV and started reading blogs, Facebook and Twitter.
Reluctant Nationalist says:
30 January, 2017 at 8:00 pm
@ heedtracker – it helps to stop watching crappy TV, and cancel your license. I can testify to that.
Never watch BBC vote NO Scotland you shits, much at all these days.
Its way too heavy on the SNP bad propaganda to be interesting. Propaganda is usually boring anyway. As in, Yes BBC Scotland gimps, we get it!
BBC England is Lovely and the Greatest in the whole wide world and everyone in England votes tory shows, are interesting if only to watch as an alien might, as in, how the fcuk does anyone take an angry old man, in a bad colour shifting wig and awful posture, seriously. But that’s it.
We know that EFTA in the UK isn’t going to happen; it’s another compromise position put forward by the SNP to be rejected in kind by May (and EFTA).
Indy Scotland in EFTA is a different matter entirely though.
Sounds like Queen Elizabeth Saxe-Coburg-Gotha and mad as F@ck Rees Mogg could be `quite vexed`with the stooshie about her meeting and having to bow the knee to a commoner like Trump.
Ha, Cheers Capella, understood.
Everyone as you were, no need for alarm.
Well I have just checked out the wording in the Trump order
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/27/us/politics/refugee-muslim-executive-order-trump.html
The phrase “controversial travel ban on seven mainly Muslim countries” has been clearly made up by the BBC
Why is the BBC directing people’s wrath towards a ban on Muslims when this is clearly not the case. It is anyone from these countries.
I am sure there are others but this is not a justification for the BBC/UK government attacking Trump
frogesque says:
Good point. Because you can see how people believe spoof twitter accounts etc..
Saying it’s satire and humour may be no defence.
Perhaps things which aren’t true should come with disclaimers. At the bottom of every page of Private Eye and the Express you could have s statement like … “the contents of this page are intended for entertainment purposes only and we make no claims as to their veracity” 🙂
@tartanfever 7:59pm
It’s mostly because Trump behaved like an arrogant poltroon throughout the presidential campaign. Okay, he got elected but now he and his followers ask the rest of the world to view his actions as if he was a decent hombre and his behaviour during the campaign was just an election stunt. Way too late for that; Trump is now reaping what he sowed.
EEA/EFTA will deliver a Yes majority in Shetland and remove the risk of any attempt at Partition and loss of Clair Ridge.
That is a consideration
@Nana says: 30 January, 2017 at 6:14 pm:
“Bloody hell
https://twitter.com/PeterGrantMP/status/826105905586511876
Tasmina raises point of order
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/82612570969756“
The SNP should hit back – next time that idiot stands to speak every SNP member in the chamber should yell “Here! Boy!”, instead of, “Here! Here!”.
Hi Dan,
Thanks for the reply. Yep, Trump’s behaviour is horrendous and he deserves all the stick he gets. No doubt about that.
It just seems like, I dunno, selective outrage or something.
Like we’re saying Trump – ‘how dare you ban these people from entering the US’, but to Obama it’s ‘yeah thats cool, bomb the shit outta those muslim countries’
Anyway, appreciate the reply, cheers.
.. Gladiators ready?
Yep, that’s YOU that is.
For our peaceful fight and right to freedom.
3,2,1..
60 days to go.
If it’s Buck House – the costs on security would be enormous (even if Trump brings in his own, which he clearly would). That will anger a few more folk.
London having almost 3 times the population of Scotland really know how to do demonstrations. So reckon he’d need to be choppered in. Would this really be acceptable for a state visit? It would make the UK government look like it wasn’t in charge of it’s people…….(lol)
If it’s Balmoral – you can guarantee the school kids would be brought in waving wee red white & blue flags (union & US) and an exclusion zone would be set up for joe public to show everything is just hunky dory here in Scotchland.
As an aside – every single US tourist I spoke with last year was horrified at the thought of Trump being Potus, so I reckon any backlash from any potential visit would not hurt our tourist industry one iota.
@Derick fae Yell That’s a good point. I’m convinced it gives us the best chance of winning iref 2 (the main priority). It just kills so many standard unionist scares in one go. We can always have full EU membership down the line if desired.
Polling data would obviously be handy. Do yes leavers and no remainers prefer indy EFTA over the alternatives?
Capella says:
30 January, 2017 at 7:50 pm
@ Wullie B – I too come from a fishing area. Is it not true that Thatcher ended the practice of family co-operative shares in boats and handed ownership of the licences to one designated skipper. Most then sold their licence to Spanish skippers, retired on their millions and so ended much of the fishing industry in the NE in one generation?
No Licence are with the boat not a person, in fact licences were introduced by the government and handed out for free, the banks put monetary value on licences, quota and track record, actually what you are saying about licences being sold to Spain is a bit of a fallacy, boats were sold in the UK to UK registered companies, hence the reason the Flag ships of Spain are stil all mostly registered out of Ayr, they were the old Spinninngdale class of Sputniks that were put out of a job when the sidewinder style of trawler fell out of favour in Scotland and owners ent to boats that were safer to work in weather, ie over teh stern which would cost a lot of money to convert on boats that were 20 -30 years old at that time , they were the boats that fished Faroes waters
Heedtracker, you certainly speak a lot of shite,the practice of black fishing in the white fish fleet ended in the late eighites early nineties when decomissioning took place, owners took the scrapping of their boats at a time when massive mortgages werent a factor, those boats were paid off, and owners leased quota from vessels that were no longer in the fleet, it coined the phrase slipper skippers, when these guys stopped fishing they made more money not working than they did at sea, but it legalised what was known as over quota fish,
Yes the pelagic sector did have a black fish style scheme running but guess what, the pelagic biomass was under guessed by ICES that was why fines were lighter than they would have been, also true black fish is when fish were landed in the back of lorries after coming into small harbours unlit and the proceeds of that all went into their pockets without paying tax, the pelagic sector paid tax on every fish they landed, everything apart from catch numbers were legitamate, not that that makes it right, but what eight boats done shouldnt tar a whole fleet, and yes that was all it was back in the noughties, I remember the day the police raided Shetland Catch in Fraserburgh, the same day they done it in Lerwick, the evidence was gone through with a fine tooth comb, and every vessel involved was done,
But ask yourself why black fish was prevalent, might it be due to the mixed fishery that Brussels induced quotas were not suitable, Iceland was allowed to set its fishery policy to suit its nations stakes, one of the main factors was net mesh size, being 55mm bigger, but guess what the EU didnt do that they set theirs at 90mm, then it went to 100mm .
Next do you know the biggest factor of the so called collapse of cod in 2002 , try overfishing of its natural food to feed pigs ashore, sandeels being caught indutriallyby Danish fishing vessels which were loaded so that the only arts you could see of them were the wheelhouse and the wahleback, the rest of the boats would be underwater, look on Youtube and you will find it, also another major factor which I said for years and has only just started coming out was water temperatures, during the eighties the average temeratue in North Sea and West coast was climbing, not a lot but it happened year on year, now guess what happened with the fish, especially cod, the fishing vessels were forced to work further north every year, each year just a little bit more north than the year before.
When Cod “collapsed” in 2002, the Grey Sea a disputed area between Russia and Norway saw record catches of cod, in an area where it was never caught before, are you starting to see a link now,
As for cod catches in UK waters since that time, a smaller amount of vessels target fish now, prawn vessels face being given more rules if they caught fish were at the forefront of selective gear design, the nets fish closer to the bottom which means the fish caught in bulk switched from cod, haddock and whiting to monk, sole, Plaice and halibut/turbot, all bottom feeders that were caught in nets with the top part only floatin a metre off the sea bed, unlike the eighties or present day white fish vessels the nets float ten to fifteen metres off of the seabed, other mesures like the release panels and larger mesh sizes from years back make trying to compare biomass from a decade or more impossible
@One_Scot says: 30 January, 2017 at 6:24 pm:
” … Can’t tell one country one thing and then threaten another with a different set of proposals. Would not look too good.”
And you think that’ll bother these people?
If they can complain at the SNP responding to a brilliant speech with a polite hand clap yet the speaker condone an idiot yelling Woof! Woof! at a young lady member.
These people are not humans they are animals.
@Stoker
In the link below, you can see that all the major Scottish papers are practically English owned. There are 4 Regional papers, but all 4 are owned by DC Thomson.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-governors-of-opinion/
You may interesting – the European Parliment’s Committee on Constitutional Affairs with Fiona Hyslop (and the First Minister of Gibralter) setting out the Scottish view on
how Scotland could remain part of the single market.
Gibralter gets are hard time ‘Gibralter is an anomoly and the last colony in Europe’ but Scotland is told ‘No member of the European parliment will turn back Scotland…’
http://www.europarl.europa.eu/news/en/news-room/20170127IPR60034/committee-on-constitutional-affairs-30012017-(p.m.)
Derick fae Yell & Soutron
I am seriously sick of this pre 2014 ‘Better together’ crap.
How many times do you folk need to be told – Last time I looked Clair Ridge (Bagpuss, Lancaster or any other oil field for that matter) is well outwith the 12 mile zone of Shetland and the Shetland Islands shores
Under the international law of the seas that is ALL they would be entitled to should they ever wish to be independent.
Got an invite to conduct a Panellise politics poll, however link doesn’t work so I can’t put my tuppence worth in.
@Ken Clark (3.51) –
Warm welcome to you mister – please come inside. Have a sherry and a small cheroot.
Hoots!
😉
I suppose the offending member could now be referred to as
“The Honourable Member for Oink Oink!”
That being cos he’s pig ignorant.
🙂
Great opinion poll on the Express:
“Do you think Theresa May’s Brexit plans will be good for the UK?
Yes, they will benefit the British people
No, they do not go far enough to separate Britain from the EU”
Mmm, looks like a Panelbase poll …
@ Wullie B – thank you for your very detailed reply. There is much to be bottomed out about the state of the fishing industry in Scotland. I note your point about cod. But is that not a “wormy” fish favoured by English fish and chip vendors. Surely no Scotsman will eat a cod!
The Norwegians are very fond of cod. In the Thor Hyerdal Museum in Oslo is a photo montage with the title “What if the cod should leave us!”
A detailed post about fishing is in order. The fishermen in Banff Buchan are naive if they think Westminster will not bargain away their livelihoods to gain EU passporting rights for London bankers.
Listening to the 9pm Irish news on RTE and Teresa May promising a seamless, invisible border with Ireland and continuation of common travel area.
one assumes that this will apply to Scotland in the event of a similar situation applying there?
Now take into consideration the enviromentalists favoured method of catching, the static gear sector, which is totally unregulated, 100s of 1000s of creel now cover the waters in the west coast, these creels seldom move more than ten feet from where the were the day before, totally killing off seabed of prawns, a study a few years back showed that trawl caught prawns were 90% male, the static sector was a similar amount of females, which one causes more damage to the prawn biomass, a single 33ft creel boat works on average 1600 creels which fishes 365 days a year, a mobile vessel works maybe 220 days a year actually fishing, and they move about a static boat rarley moves unless its a 50ft boat built with vivier tanks.
And going back to the previous comment something that supports the water temperatures affecting marine life, back in the eighties and ninties a 34 ft creel boat fishing 200 creels a day for velvets made a very good living, from about the mid 90s velvet crabs became scarcer in est coast lochs, but Orkney and Shetland which didnt catch them started to see them at roughly the same time, now Faroes and Iceland are catching them in numbers we seen 26 yeas ago, for a species that arrived in Scottish waters in teh early eighties after being a mainstay for the small boat Spanish fleet before that time,
So what I am saying is a lot more than fishing was responsible for what happened in our waters, even a seal, which species a rapidly multiplying like never before eat their own body weight EACH day has also helped cause what happened, but guess what, fish biomass numbers are back up, stocks are healthy but methods other than quota and discard bans need to be implemented, they dont work, the fish are still caught, they are now taken ashore and either changed into fishfiid for asalmon farms or put into ladfill, does this help stock numbers,,,NO but try telling Brussels that, the Scottish fishing industry has been trying to get other ways implemented whether it larger mesh sizes or bigger escape panels but Brussels hasnt listened
Also another little fact for youthat you might find interesting, when the cod fishing”collapsed ” Cod Recovery Zones were implemented by the Scottish Government, they wanted to close areas in the Scottish EEZ off to fishing boats, I cant remember exact sizes, but it was either 30 square miles or square kilometres that no boat was allowed to enter, Scottish boats were prevented from fishing these areas due to rules implemented in Holyrood, but when the SG went to Brussles to get all vessels banned they were told no, it would not happen, so what did we see, a Scottish boat prevented from fishing due to the ratio of cod to other fish being more than 10%, the area got closed to boats from north of the border, so they would have to move, but this is the kicker, boats from south of the border WERE allowed to fish these CRZs as were every other EU nations fishing fleets, that is what being stuck in the CFP does for you, unless you are a silver spoon fed chef with a TV rogram showing undersized saithe being put back in teh water then going to Maria Damakis and demanding that discarding fish should be illegal and to ban it without anythought to implement it, a bit like what is happening now with Brexit then showing the aforesaid TV show in every EU nation and getting millions of signatures of people to get the ractice banned, but guess what , sea birds are now starving and so are creatures like seals which have small colony on production platforms, that used to feed on these discards along with fish and shellfish when it reached the bottom, do you want to carry on your argument or ar you sufficiently educated now
@galamcennalath says: 30 January, 2017 at 7:41 pm:
” … Most of all, as a personal opinion, we need the EU thoroughly on side with Indy. In my mind the two press releases within minutes of each other, Nicola’s statement plus the other which is asking the EU for help, are part of the same plan.”
And that, galamcennalath, is as the good a summation of the situation as I have seen, on or off-line, today.
BTW: I get the impression from several quarters that we have much of the EU on side already. Obviously they cannot say too much openly. Diplomacy and all that
However, the fact that we are getting certain encouragements while the Brexiteers are getting a certain degree of polite hostility speaks volumes.
Capella, I wouldnt touch a cod if you paid me, as you say, it is full of worm, especially west coast cod, leave them in a fishinfg box rounded(not gutted) and have a lok after an hour or two, teh worm is crawling out of the skin, unlike haddock which I have yet to see it happen
@shinty It doesn’t matter that they’re long debunked and we know they’re rubbish. The reality is we’ll be hit with lots of the same shite as last time by a hostile media. The €, Spain, the new favourite – the ‘UK single market’. The more efficient and easily repeatable the method of disproving their pish the better. If you can come up with a better catch-most than EFTA I’d happily endorse it.
gala
As a strategy, given where we are and they way things look like developing, it seems to me off at a tangent.
as a strategy i dont think it is off at a tangent and i will develop this idea below
Indy is my priority
agreed 100% without indy, we are out of the eu completely
and I am certain EU membership makes it much more likely.
I agree that retaining the benefits of the eu make that much more likely
In IndyRef2 we will have to sell security and stablilty versus chaos and unknowns of Brexit.
In IndyRef2 we will have to sell efta/eea which secures the stablilty you spea of, freedom of movement and access to the single market
the chaos of brexit will not be unknown for much longer, its reality will be the backdrop to our indyref2 campaign
Continued EU membership seems an important feature of that secure future.
efta/eea will also be an important feature of that secure future.
Uncertainly over the EU was one to reasons we lost IR1. This time we have the opportunity to turn that negative completely around into a positive.
agreed, that is because our status in the eu depended on a negotiated settlement after indyref1. It left us open to accusations of needing to accept the euro etc
the term “staying in the EU” is also a vague concept that we will be forced to argue for in indyref2 and while I agree that eu membership is a positive, we are taling about strategy here gala
If we trigger IR2 because of Brexit, we aren’t triggering it because of Tory atrocious behaviour, we are triggering because of being dragged out of the EU.
yes we are and presently, Nicola’s compromise is designed to mitigate against the worst excesses of this event
The case becomes weakened if we opt an out of the EU solution.
well efta/eea is opting out of membership, yes, but not out of the EU single market or freedom of movement, which are the main issues for the population in general.
That’s a harder sell
no it isnt, it is harder to sell eu membership to the no leavers the yes leavers than efta/eea to the no remainers and the yes remainers,
the no leavers and yes leavers will be attracted efta/eea, the norway option, it was the option prefered by farage?
Most of all, as a personal opinion, we need the EU thoroughly on side with Indy.
I think they are on ourside, the expressions of good will by numerous eu politicians already speak volumes
In my mind the two press releases within minutes of each other, Nicola’s statement plus the other which is asking the EU for help, are part of the same plan.
Nicola is walking a very fine line and playing her cards very close to her chest, smart cookie, I have full trust in her decision, and if it isnt the efta/eea option for indyref2 then i will support whatever she decides is the best option. but im sure us discuss our options here isnt a problem
The efta/eea option isnt something that needs to be negotiated it only requires a simple yes/no for an indy scotland from the 4 efta countries and the 27 eea countries. (if we apply for eea as successor state under article 50, then we only need a majority, not unanonymity of the 27)
the status quo we voted for, 63% was for a bespoke deal the uk had negotiated over many years. it is now gone forever. The term “staying in the eu” implies agreeing with some as yet unknown settlement between an indy scotland and the EU. we could find ourselves in the same position as the brexiters saying, “of course we will get a good deal” without knowing exactly what that deal was. they got away with it because the media failed to put them under the proper scrutiny, something we wont get the luxury of
So why would pro yes and pro eu folk vote for this efta/eea option?
1. It will ensure we win indyref2
2. They already agree with Nicola wrt this option as a compromise for scotland within the UK
3.It ensures free movement of people
4. it ensures access to the single market, something that the whole of the uk is about to find out just how bad this is going to be. I can assure you, once the shit hits the fan you will struggle to find a brexiteer who claims to have voted leave to leave the single market
5. efta/eea membership will remove the 6 meps we presently have from the eu decision making process. this is a real downside vs eu membership. but Im not sure we could not live with this? the norwiegiens do. is this such a deal breaker? is this one issue really worth jeopardising indyref2?
6. It the above answer is yes then be consoled with the fact that after a yes vote and subsequent negotiations, about 2 years, we will be finally independent and will be ready for the 1st independent holyrood elections where the snp would offer a 2nd euref2. no need for an option to leave or an option to confirm the new efta/eea position, the 63% remain has already gien the SG a mandate to do that, but only options for greater eu integration?
is efta/eea membership such a bitter pill to swallow for 3 year until we can vote and will vote for full eu membership and perhaps euro zone? I dont think it is and I really believe it will swing the stubborn 45% yes polls into the high 50’s. We need to be radical, be willing to make sacrifices to ensure yes wins. I believe this option is the answer
please give it some consideration
soz, that last post was a bit of a tome, got carried away
Capella, you are right about the fishing away to be sold off again, even in the industry newspaper last week had this as their front page headline and that was after them promoting the leave vote
And you are right about cod being wormy, I wouldnt touch that fish with a barge pole, you just need to look at a box of cod caught in West coast waters in the summer, the worms are wriggling all over teh fish, its disgusting,
The Norwegians salted or sun dried their cod before eating it, but would worm be as prevallent years ago or were they transferred by ocean going vessels? who really knows
@Capella says: 30 January, 2017 at 7:50 pm:
” … Most then sold their licence to Spanish skippers, retired on their millions and so ended much of the fishing industry in the NE in one generation?”
Aye! Capella. I spent most of my schooldays in a primary school in Granton, just yards away from the entrance to the main pier. Then a secondary school in Leith when the trawlers at Granton were hauling Herring 24/7/356 and the drifters at Newhaven were a round the clock thing too. Many classmates there were the very closed brethren fisher folks from Newhaven. BTW: I swithered with going on the Salvesen Whalers that were still then based in Leith.
Many of my classmates were fisher folks.
Your version is very much in accord with my memories of the decline in the Scottish fisheries.
Soutron says:
If you can come up with a better catch-most than EFTA I’d happily endorse it.
farage called it the norway option
Robert Peffers
BTW: I get the impression from several quarters that we have much of the EU on side already.
agreed big time, if the eu presidents had agreed to meet publicly the leader of the bavarian lander, the corsican parlaiment, the leaders of the breton and friesland national party the leaders of catalonia
france, germany, holland and spain would have been in open revolt against the EU by now.
galamcennalath says:
30 January, 2017 at 4:42 pm
Re SNP changing policy from EU to EEA/EFTA, that
‘62% voted for the EU, not something else. That solid mandate is a foundation of SG’s arguments.
‘IMO we can expect a positive response to Indy within the EU. It wouldn’t surprise me if it was very positive as a counter to the hard anti EU stance of London. … If we commit to the EU, the EU will commit to us – I’m certain.
‘… We need the EU fully on side.’
Thank you very much galamcennalath: personally, I agree with you entirely on all the above points.
You also find it ‘inconceivable that the SG will go into a Brexit triggered IndyRef2 on a ticket of ‘Scotland outside the EU’ …’
Me too: I don’t think the SG or the SNP would ever risk contradicting themselves so bluntly as that. However, they have already wobbled somewhat on their previously firm commitment to ‘independence in Europe’, which always meant the future Scotland being a full member state of the EU.
I don’t personally like the ‘wobble’ one bit, and have difficulty seeing any authentic justification for it. It seems that political expediency has borne sway. Which raises the question: Can pure ‘expediency’ ever serve as ‘authentic justification’?
To my mind, Scotland clearly voted for ‘Remain’ in the referendum, and if the SG and the SNP genuinely believe in the sovereignty of the people, they had no right to wobble in the way which, I think, they have. I would have preferred that they go ahead on that basis, striving to keep Scotland fully in Europe no matter what, especially when the majority of Scots voting for Remain was so clear-cut.
There is no getting away from the fact that ‘Remain’ meant remaining a member state of the EU, and not simply remaining ‘in the single market’ or ‘in the customs union’, as the ‘soft Brexit’ compromise proposed by Nicola suggested. To me, these compromises are not what Scotland voted for. I can see no legal or moral justification for the SG or the SNP promoting, or even being satisfied with anything less than what the sovereign people freely voted for.
Which brings us back to expediency, and whether expediency is ever justified.
We may wonder what the ‘expedient’ in question actually was, in the first place. Retrospectively, I imagine the ‘wobble’, which I personally dislike, was designed to maximise the pro-Indy vote the next time an Indy-referendum takes place.
The objective of the ‘wobble’, I suppose, was twofold: keep as many previous pro-Indy voters on board as possible and, simultaneously, win new ones. Both things will indeed have to happen for the SNP to have a reasonable chance of winning the next Indy referendum.
The SNP presumably calculated that they risked losing a sizable chunk of those who were pro-Indy but anti-EU at the next Indy Ref. That could even include about 30% of their own membership, it seems. This was one indication that making the next Indy Ref as much about staying in Europe as it was about independence would be counter-productive.
They also knew that a considerable number of Remain voters in Scotland were anti-independence. When push came to shove, at the next Indy Ref a sizable chunk of that ‘considerable number’ will probably find that their love of the UK is stronger than their attachment to the EU. So uniting the cause of independence with that of full European membership would not necessarily bring any great gain to the pro-Indy vote from that camp.
Hence, if the SNP / SG decided to run the next Indy Ref campaign on the basis of tying Scottish independence strictly to Scotland’s membership of the EU, they might easily lose two ‘sizable chunks’ of the vote which they need. ‘Yes’ voters who don’t like the EU could easily switch to ‘No’, and ‘Remain’ voters who love the EU to some extent, but the UK even more, would not become ‘Yes’ voters either.
The SNP / SG therefore decided, I suppose, to make a distinction between being pro-Indy and being pro-EU membership. This decision was evident in the single market / customs union compromise which Nicola proposed. EU membership was no longer an absolute, or a ‘sine qua non’. This was again evident when they allowed people like Alex Neil to speak their anti-EU minds, although this was contrary to longstanding official SNP policy.
To people like me, this looked like a betrayal of principle. It still does: you can’t say the people are sovereign and then decide you can ignore what they want when what they voted for doesn’t suit you.
To cannier political types, no doubt more cunning and sophisticated and worldly-wise – and more savvy calculators – than simple-minded folk like me, it no doubt looked like a good move on the ever-shifting chess board of politics, and even a necessary ‘expedient’ in order to achieve the ultimate goal. And that is probably what it indeed is (even if people like me don’t particularly like it).
That ultimate goal for the SNP / SG is Scotland’s independence. Everything else is – ultimately – secondary to that goal. Including whether an independent Scotland will be a full member state of the EU, or simply associated with the EU through EAA/EFTA.
The relationship to Europe, I suppose, is a secondary matter for the SNP / SG, while achieving independence remains primary.
The aim of the SNP strategists, I suppose, was to keep or win over as many as possible of the two ‘sizable chunks’ of voters mentioned earlier, when the next Indy Ref actually happens. The way to do this – so the calculation continues – is to let the next Indy Ref be solely about independence, and nothing else.
In other words: don’t confuse that key issue with mere speculations about Scotland’s future relation to Europe! So what will happen next?
Come the Indy Ref, I expect voters will be promised that if they vote ‘Yes’, this will be followed by a further referendum on whether the newly independent Scotland should or should not be a full member state of the EU.
This will be aimed at assuring potentially pro-Indy voters who dislike the EU that they will get another bite at the cherry, still giving them a chance to keep Scotland out of the EU after independence is achieved.
At the same time, it will be hoped that the EU will make all the right noises this time, courting Scotland sufficiently during the Indy Ref campaign to convince pro-UK Europhiles to abandon their pro-UK stance, and vote for an independent Scotland which will probably stay fully European instead.
The strategists would not expect to gain everyone in either of these two camps of course. But all they want is to win over enough of them to get the pro-independence vote over the line (while still trying to make it as big a majority as possible).
It will not be possible to know the result of the post-independence referendum on Europe in advance. But it can be safely foreseen that there will be no resemblance whatsoever between the choice the Scottish people will have to make post-independence regarding Europe and toxic the Remain/Leave campaign which embroiled the UK, England especially, in the summer of 2016.
Fundamentally it will be a choice between Scotland retaining (or applying for) full EU membership on the one hand, and EAA/EFTA membership on the other. These are both pro-European alternatives.
Even if a third option might have to be included, according to which Scotland would be out of Europe altogether (a ‘hard’ version of ‘none of the above’!) it can be safely presumed that this will not gain much traction. In reality, the choice will be between two pro-European options, both of which would – in the end – be acceptable to the SNP.
It can be expected that the SNP will still prefer full EU membership, and most SNP people would probably campaign for that outcome. But the SNP leadership would probably allow ‘freedom of conscience’ on the issue. They know very well that Alex Neil is not alone within the SNP on this one, and they do not want their Party to fracture.
That too is obviously a key matter for SNP strategists: they aim to achieve independence in a way that leaves the SNP strongly united afterwards. So that the SNP remain electable and can continue to govern. This will not be possible if, in the process of achieving independence, they splinter. Hence the ‘softly softly’ approach when Alex Neil so blatantly abandoned and publicly contradicted official SNP policy on Europe.
Even with the third (no-hope-of-winning, anti-European) option on the ballot paper, the atmosphere and content of the campaign will remain fundamentally pro-European. The choice, at bottom, would be whether we relate to Europe through full membership of the EU or through EAA/EFTA. In Scotland there will be none of the bitterness experienced in England during the Remain/Leave campaign that ended in a victory for Brexit.
The post-independence referendum about Europe which I expect the SNP are already planning will indicate beyond doubt, both in the manner in which the campaign is conducted and in its outcome, that Scotland does definitely want to be in a very positive relationship with Europe. There must be a strong likelihood that significant European leaders will be heavily involved in the campaign, this time in a thoroughly positive way. No more Barrosso-type interventions, like we had in 2014: the Europeans will be positively wooing Scotland … which will be wonderful because Scotland is, after all, a European nation.
Just as Scotland always has been. It is only the Union with England which obscured and confused that fundamental fact of Scottish history and, indeed, of Scottish reality. Europe is where we naturally belong. Even pro-independence Scots who are strongly anti-European will gradually come to realise this, so at least the strategists will calculate.
Are the SNP strategists getting it right? I honestly don’t know. I am certainly happy to concede that they surely know more about the nitty-gritty of politics than people like me do. I don’t even wish to get involved in the kind of calculations – and indeed research – that are, I suppose, their bread and butter.
So, despite the fact that people like me are not at ease with the means chosen to produce the desired effect, there is more than a good chance that the expedients the SNP / SG have used in this particular instance may finally prove to have been justified. At least, in so far as the means justifies the end – a principle which, in principle, I do not accept!
That is, the expedients could work. Even if they should not be taken as a precedent. I mean in particular the expedient of ignoring, or at least temporarily sidelining the basic principle that the people are sovereign in Scotland … The people, not the parliament or the ruling Party, or even the present government.
When the people of Scotland vote for something, they should get it. Especially something as important as their ‘Remain’ vote in the 2016 referendum. These other organs and institutions – the actual Scottish government, the Party in power, even the parliament – should not, in principle, set themselves up as sovereign over the people. Instead, they should comply with the people’s expressed wish which, in this instance, was to ‘remain’ fully in Europe.
True, a lack of full compliance with the will of the people in this particular case may be excused, but it should be carefully noted. It could be put down to complications caused by Scotland being in the UK, with the ambiguities and complexities that follow from that situation, but it should not be altogether ignored, or brushed over.
Once Scotland is an independent nation, it should – I suppose – be possible to respect the principle of popular sovereignty fully. That is something which – arguably – has not quite happened in this case. The Scottish people voted to ‘remain’ in Europe, fully, and this was reinterpreted and downgraded, as if they had only voted to remain ‘in the single market’ or the ‘customs union’. That is surely not quite correct, and the reason it needs to be noted – even if we do excuse it in the current circumstances, and may even see it as a politically astute albeit temporary move – because there is a key principle at stake.
We are looking forward to a time when it will be impossible for Scottish governments to compromise or play around with that principle, and when they will not be able to make use of even temporary expedients which undermine it. If the sovereignty and consent of the people is indeed the fundamental principle of the Scottish polity, we will not eventually be able to overrule it when it does not suit us, for reasons of expediency.
Hasten the day, therefore, when Scotland has her own constitution. I hope this will set out effective mechanisms to ensure the sovereignty of her people, while also ensuring that she remains fully within the European concert of nations. There is no contradiction between these two things. While the way the UK works continually undermines the principle this is not in fact the case with the EU, despite the efforts of the irresponsible Press to misinform us and convince us that the opposite is true.
When we have regained full nationhood, hopefully in Europe, the compromises and expedients that may have been employed in the past to recover our independent status will no longer be necessary, or even possible.
I remain convinced that a European future for Scotland will guarantee the sovereignty of her people in a way that being part of the UK never did, and never could.
Hasten the day …
Regarding full EU membership or EFTA membership. There are a number of potential benefits to going the EFTA route pre-referendum, it would kill a number of myths for a start.
Myth 1: “You will need to use the EURO”
None of the EFTA countries use the Euro, they use krona in Iceland and Norway and the Swiss franc in the other two. None have even been asked to consider the Euro as a currency.
Myth 2: “Spain will veto Scotland’s membership”
Well we won’t be asking Spain will we. It will be much simpler I imaging to get the openly stated backing of 4 countries in EFTA than 27 EU countries BEFORE the referendum.
Myth 3: “You will have to reapply for membership”
Well not if we obtain unequivocal support from EFTA as above.
Other benefits:
1. We will have full control of both fishing and agriculture something that we could use to sweeten those employed in those areas.
2. We would be free to do our our deal with the UK regarding tariffs no matter the deal settled on between the EU and UK. So we could have a Free Trade Agreement with the rUK, not possible within the EU unless an FTA applies to the whole EU/UK and that won’t happen.
3. We could have our own customs union with rUK if we chose, reducing obstacles and red tape in trade between the rUK and ourselves. If the UK leaves the customs union on leaving the EU and we remained in the EU then this wouldn’t be possible.
4. We still have access to the single market and free movement of people.
The main downside is that we would be contributing to the EU budget(at a lower rate) but would have no say in making policy. We would though have a fair bit of bargaining power in EFTa’s dealings with the EU.
Of all of the above the most crucial to me is that before we have any referendum we have an assurance from either the EU or EFTA that if we become Independent on a democratic vote then our membership is assured. I want to shut the media up on a few of these things and I don’t care what route we take.
Getting out of the EU keeping the simgle market along with free access is what matters to me at this stage.
do you want to carry on your argument or ar you sufficiently educated now”
Wullie you’re an apologist for a catastrophe, caused only by over fishing. Its always someone else’s fault. The black fishing convictions only happened because EU restrictions were starting to work, species recovery began, so they were illegally fished too.
Its your kind of exceptionalism that makes our seas so vulnerable. You came this close to the extinction of North Sea cod, just like what happened in Newfoundland with 40, 000 job losses almost over night and its never coming back,
http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/campaigns/oceans/seafood/understanding-the-problem/overfishing-history/cod-fishery-canadian/
Exact same happened to the whaling industry UK and world wide, no whales left to commercially catch, Scots wiped out the vast herring stocks that once filled Scottish west coast sea lochs. I’m from Aberdeen, over fishing’s caused the extinction of the Atlantic Salmon on the River Dee. Once again, its someone else’s fault, or global warming, or greedy seals and dolphins.
And cod is not a cold water species. Its wrong to assume it is. The fact there is almost no cod caught in warmer North Sea waters today, is merely because it too has also been fished to near extinction.
What we now have is giant EU funded trawlers fishing off North Africa causing even worse deep sea environmental damage. The reason that North Atlantic sea bird populations are dying out, is also and almost certainly caused by the exact same over fishing.
Scottish estuaries used to team with life, again, all of it destroyed by fishing.
So once again Wullie, the idea of giving control of our seas back to you guys is frightening.
the drifters at Newhaven were a round the clock thing too. Many classmates there were the very closed brethren fisher folks from Newhaven
Many classmates there were the very closed brethren fisher folks from Newhaven
the last door to door fish wify c/w creel on her back held inplace wi’ a hied band, used to deliver fish to my mum and dads house at the top of newhaven rd. she used to stop by and spend hrs blethering with my mum, by that time I think she only did it out of habit for her old customers. she would of course walk all the way up newhaven road with the heavy creel on her back, a long steep and cobbled road. the crones, kipper merchants lived next door, we went to the same school.
Ill ask my mum tomorrow what the auld fish wifie’s name was
I see some posters bringing-up “Fatty” Soames’s disgraceful heckling of Tasmin. That obese oaf has previous for this sort of behaviour.
I remember reading, whenever John Prescott got up to speak in the House Soames would shout: “Steward”, of call-out a drinks order – much to the amusement of his felow public schoolboys on the Tory benches.
Still, he’s a very close personal friend of the Duke of Rothesay, so, that makes his conduct acceptable it seems.
Thepnr
brilliant post, aye it does shut up a lot of the unionist arguements
eg, spain will block membership…… um… we wouldnt be members
btw can you confirm, does efta/eea membership require scotland to at least commit to the euro? I know eu membership does, although it cant be enforced etc,
Haha maybe more snappy for the punters I suppose. Don’t know about ‘Taking back control’ of Farage’s cast offs though.
Good post before btw.
That last part should have read Getting out of the UK not EU of course.
Me too: I don’t think the SG or the SNP would ever risk contradicting themselves so bluntly as that.
um, you must have missed Nicola’s eu paper and negotiations today where she argues for……………
efta/eea membership
albeit as a compromise for staying in the uk, blunt but to the point
but why is it so impossible to argue for this in indyref2?
especially if she adds the caveat of another euref after indy for further integration?
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Greens would be voting against a minority SNP administration.
If they voted with the SNP then they wouldn’t get much publicity.
Voting against the SNP administration would give them much more publicity and in their mind increase the chances of more Greens next time.
SNP supporters should remember that the next time they tell you the majority is in the bag.
Shinty
A “Crown Dependency” Shetland as an offshore part of England would probably have a 13 nautical mile EEZ, enclave in Scottish waters as you suggest. I have been making that case in the letters pages of Shetland News and Shetland Times for most of a decade.
But an independent Shetland would have 200 miles. Getting a Yes in Shetland is important.
EFTA completely sidesteps any debate on the matter. Also the Spanish veto scare story etc.
Soutron
tx, only caveat was farage and others, argued for a norway type option, while rejecting free movement of people
decent journalist would have picked him up on that, but didnt, quelle surprise
aye it is a cast off, but the no/leave and yes/leave brigade think they know what it means and will jump at it especially as the reality of leaving the single market is revealed after the a50 button is pressed
The sunday herald is not fully behind Indy, thats obvious, but it doesnt make sense for Patrick Harvie to bring down the SG, potentially reduce the pro independence presence at Holyrood ( with all the MSM going balistic with joy) whilst also weakening the chances of getting the bill passed in parliament.
It would be the quickest political suicide in history.
OT
MPs to debate false stories, lies to you & me. That’s Ruth the “Truth” buggered.
I don’t personally like the ‘wobble’ one bit, and have difficulty seeing any authentic justification for it. It seems that political expediency has borne sway. Which raises the question: Can pure ‘expediency’ ever serve as ‘authentic justification’?
yes it can, without indy we are out of the eu completely
the authentic justification comes from wining our independence
you dont like the wobble? when 63% of us voted remain, and you are offered further eu inegration in 3 years as a compromise to help us win our independence??
@schrodingers cat No there is no Euro requirement to join EFTA.
Hi Stoker at 8:08 pm.
You typed,
“Genuine question – What’s the one?”
I think the one Rev Stu referred to was The Courier – or maybe the Press & Journal – or maybe The Sunday Post. Following on from the info JLT provided, you could have a skeck here:-
http://www.dcthomson.co.uk/brands/
(“This England”???)
Onnyhoo, from the “About us” page…
“DC Thomson is a private company and one of the leading media organisations in the UK. It is headquartered in Dundee, Scotland, with a London base in the world-famous Fleet Street. The company publishes newspapers, magazines and books and has diversified into new media, digital technology, retail, radio and television through investment interests.”
You can see their Fleet Street building here:-
https://goo.gl/maps/fQVX74vVdNG2
JLT on 30 January, 2017 at 8:51 pm:
Thanks!
@schrodingers cat
You cannot adopt the Euro as your currency without first joining the EU as a full member. So Scotland couldn’t commit to the Euro even if they wanted to as a member of EFTA.
Simple answer. Only member states can join the Euro.
Agreed, with many here..
Other European nations see us now, with our heart open to trust.
Having bravely, and variously fought-off ‘agressive means’ Scotland has a unique historical perspective, needed once again to ‘interpret’ England’s position.
Derick fae Yell says:
But an independent Shetland would have 200 miles. Getting a Yes in Shetland is important.
EFTA completely sidesteps any debate on the matter. Also the Spanish veto scare story etc.
correct, efta/eea gives agricultural and fishing policy back to scotland, it would enable scotland to cut a deal with norway(i have worked in norway many times and can assure you they will be up for this) which will block, spanish, eu and the ruk fishing fleets from Norway and scotland 🙂
Thepnr
excellent, so as an efta/eea member applicant we do NOT need to commit to joining the euro
(understood that to actually join, your currency needs to be in ermII for 2 years before you can join the euro zone)
George Wood@9.57pm
You might be correct there, but, voting against the SNPGov may also lose them support and seats.
They are always on a shoogly peg. When calling people before last years election, the folks saying they were giving their ‘second vote to the Greens’ were only doing it because they were convinced it would not have a negative effect on th SNP majority, and indeed they were of the opinion that the SNP, ‘were going to win anyway’. They must have kicked themselves when they saw that a tory had take their Edinburgh central seat, by only a few 100 votes.
No, George, it was NOT the SNP supporters that said it was ‘in the bag’. We desperately tried to tell potential voters it really really wasn’t. The media, the Greens, the unionists, did a very good job of confusing, and distracting voters to succeed in their own agenda. They jeopardised support for independence in the process. They would do that again for self gain, let us not fool ourselves.
Soutron says:
30 January, 2017 at 10:08 pm
@schrodingers cat No there is no Euro requirement to join EFTA.
what about the eea?
it is the eea, i believe, which ensures access to the single maret, not efta
Craig Murray gave a very interesting talk to the SNP Club in Edinburgh on the conflict in Iraq and Syria. The first few minutes are about how the many countries who have gained their independence did so without a referendum. It’s well worth a listen for his advice on election monitoring and press monitoring.
But you will probably be fascinated also by the history of UK domination of the Middle East.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at1mfvFfuBo
@ WUll who wrote “To me, these compromises are not what Scotland voted for. I can see no legal or moral justification for the SG or the SNP promoting, or even being satisfied with anything less than what the sovereign people freely voted for”.
I think Ms Sturgeon proposed this compromise because, as First Minister for all the people in Scotland, she feels she has a duty to provide a solution that satisfies the Scottish electorate that voted to leave. The compromise provides exit from the EU while maintaining most of the benefits – save the Scotland’s right to take her place among the nations and contribute to the direction the EU will take in the future. That’s quite a high price for Scottish unity.
The compromise also demands concessions/powers from England that make Scotland practically independent – again satisfying a lot of the Scottish electorate.
However I published a post some time ago about the SNP game plan that you’ll find here. https://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2017/01/08/whats-the-snp-game-plan/
Ms Sturgeon has just moved her Queen into position and Ms May has just been told she has 2 months to work things out before she concedes checkmate
@schrodingers cat
what about the eea?
LOL Read my lips, only full member states of the EU can use the Euro.
All 4 EFTA members are in the EEA, none of them can use the Euro.
One_Scot says:
The noise you hear in the background, well that’s the popcorn machine.
i’m stealing that 🙂
the drifters of Newhaven Granton and every other port went the way of the dodo, not due to over fishing but the changing of catching styles the west coast ring net proved so good that purse seiners became the norm, in the early days it was still ten man crews on 80ft boats, my family were one of the top drift net familes in the NE of Scotland and converted to fish in the mid 70s being one of the last to stop drifting, My grandfather helped purchase many boats by buying shares, my gt gt Grandfather helped revolutionise the Shetland fleet when he moved up from Crovie, the Sach watts were well known in every fishing town in Scotland but the drift net died, and pair trawling, purse seining became the norm, it was this method that near finished herring in Scottish waters back in the 70s, and only a few families stuck by the pelagic fishing most went to fish for cod and haddock, and older boats near the end of their lives went to the prawns, it had bugger all to do with skippers selling licences to Spain, Licences werent even on the go then, they got handed out in the 80s to boats that were fishing, so seems that things are a little different than what you think about why herring drifters disappeared,
Heedtracker, where the hell did i say it was someone elses fault, I said a multitude of reason why cod disappeared from our waters , and all are being acknowledged now by experts in the field, let me guess, do you get your facts from the eminent Proffessor Callum Robberts , he of “Only 100 cod left in the North Sea” as claimed by him a few years ago, feck , you would see that in every tow , it doesnt matter what has happened before, the industry is not ran on the same sentiment of twenty or thirty years ago , fishermen have been at the forefront trying to figure out ways to stay viable, heloing design and test trawl nets that dont catch the bloody fish, a better system than the vaunted quota sytem, even you have to agree with that, the quota system still allows for fish to be caught and die, other systems dont, Days at sea helped, but look at Faroe for example, they rotate tehir grounds closing off areas for a few months at a time, the boats then move to the next area and this happens all year round, grounds get rested, teh EU doesnt allow this method in its waters, Iceland and Norway both have bigger mesh sizes only , which means only maturer fish are caught, come on man, evenn you have to see that Brussels are blind to try ideas that Scottish boats are wanting, they know that if you catch a fish, its liable to die, some dont but most do, now if that fish is left to grow, its better for the ecosystem and the industry, your vaunted CFP allows factory ships to within 6 miles of British shores, and I aint talking about the 60 metre pekagic boats of which there are about 25 in Scotland, I am speaking about Dutch, French and German factory freezers that catch and process their fish at sea and seldom get boarded by fisheries vessels for inspections, foreign pelagic vessels have been caught “slipping” their catch as they had caught bigger fish next tow, so killing twice the amount of fish than they had to, go to the but of Lewis and work on small Scottish/English or Irish boats and see what comes up, hundreds of tonnes of dead maackere/blue whiting or herring, the Scots boats are monitored via satellite and camera to make sure this doesnt happen, a sensible set up, but the playing field isnt level, then you have the multi million dollar US Enviromental NGOs funding small areas like Arran to have winter fishing grounds closed to all but creel men, one of the biggest proponents of this was a creel fisherman, he is now complaining of the amount of creels fishing in the area he thought he would have to himself,
Look if you dont believe what I have to say, ask to do a trip on a trawler, and ask the skipper what he thinks of quotas and such like and what would be a better system for helping marine life and boats, as for the estuaries that was proven in the eighties it was run offs from farms and shore side industries that have caused more harm, so how can you blame one industry and not the others
What’s the difference between the BBC and a bowling ball?
I was diverted from what I was gonna post by the DC Thomson stuff.
Onnyhoo…
62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU. That result, I believe, has shaped the Scottish Government’s response (and tactics and strategy) to the EU referendum result.
Compromises have been proposed that would see Scotland (and N. Ireland?) treated differently from England, which doesn’t have its own government fighting its corner; the UK government has assumed that mantle. I see the problem is that the UK government is assuming the right to enforce the wishes of England (& Wales), as if it were, as Robert Peffers has pointed out on numerous occasions, the de facto parliament/government of the Kingdom of England.
Nicola and the Scottish Parliament have proposed compromises that would see the UK continue into the future. I believe that Nicola has sussed out that May, as de facto English Prime Minister, will throw out these compromises (EFTA/EEA membership, for example) because what we Scots – the 5 Million of us – want is dwarfed by what HER electorate wants.
Thus, there will only be one result: Indyref2 will be announced well before the end of 2017, the referendum to take place summer of 2018.
Beware posters ,of TM’s “trump card”. Whilst I agree with many recent posts
as regards the FM’s canny strategy re EFTA/EEA options etc.it could be that TM and her propaganda outlets
could be lining up DT as the ” international leader” of better together2.? I note that the present ” travel ban” is ” temporary” and although Trump is taking a ” hard line” at present , just perhaps he will eventually soften his stance ( conveniently for the ” special relationship” nearer to the ” state visit” ) . Undoubtedly, if this transpires , the UK government will claim that U.K. Influence on the US gov. was crucial and significant . Thereafter, the state propaganda apparatus will hail TM and Boris , and thereafter the “reformed hero” DT will be feted ” royally” by the establishment on his ” state visit”. Naturally he will visit Scotland, where the ” pay off” to TM will be his complete condemnation of independence for Scotland under any circumstances , and the absolute necessity of trident and
the “Scottish base” will be categorically reinforced . Just a theory??
Thepnr says:
30 January, 2017 at 10:26 pm
@schrodingers cat
what about the eea?
LOL Read my lips, only full member states of the EU can use the Euro.
All 4 EFTA members are in the EEA, none of them can use the Euro.
excellent, i just wanted to be sure before i made a full of my self on social media, complicated subject dont ya know
um… only 3 of the efta countries are in the eea, as far as i am aware, switzerland isnt, although the eu appears to be pressurising them to join?
🙂
ps no one likes a smart arse, but you can blame dads for that one
Derrick fae yell,
Shetland whatever they did (separate from say an independent Scotland OR otherwise) would only ever be allowed the 12 miles from their shoreline. Unionists like to say Shetland could take the oil, but in reality, they couldn’t. It’s just yet another false scare story that has been perpetrated by unionists for decades.
In short, it’s pish.
Derick fae Yell
Not sure where all the talk about Shetland and Orkney comes from.
Magnus, Earl of Caithness and Orkney signed the Declaration of Arbroath along with Robert the Bruce, and from early 1230 Shetland was governed by earls who were Scots from the families of Angus and St. Clair.
So clearly identified with and is part of what is now modern Scotland.
EU:
Hello Scotland full member of the club at last – shall we start by re-drawing the CFP?
Scotland:
No thanks we’d rather use the facilities and pay a fee like Norway and other places do – you decide the rules we’re not clever enough for that.
Not quite on message re this article but having watched a few hours of news coverage tonight on #Trump and #False News, I suggest the yes2 movement might focus on the “false news” theme and the uk media. As an alternative to the 2014 “biased” complaints, we might focus on “False News” complaints. We need to start that now, so that we don’t read about complaints re media posting confessions to being found to have posted “false news” items some 6 months after “indy 2” and instead put the fear up the media in the coming weeks and months about past and current “false news” articles, some of which are, by now, well documented.
Capella@10.24
Thanks for the link to the youtube vid of C.Murray talk. Slightly concerned and presume it is an editing mistake, but from the, ‘Scotland could achieve statehood’ at 14.01 mins, then literally jumping to, ‘The horror, carnage, death and displacement that has been going on there for decades’ at 14.02, has me a tad concerned. How bizarre, obviously we soon grasp that Murray is speaking about Syria and Yemen, but er, wtf!
@Thepnr says: 30 January, 2017 at 9:44 pm:
“Regarding full EU membership or EFTA membership. There are a number of potential benefits to going the EFTA route pre-referendum, it would kill a number of myths for a start.
Myth 1: “You will need to use the EURO””
Sheesh!
Thepnr, if they are myths there is absolutely no need to refute them and no need of connection to the FM’s case for EFTA.
In the first place the Euro claptrap is easy to discredit. The EU rules do not state that anyone has to actually adopt the Euro. It says they need to commit to considering it and the evidence is that, for example, Sweden does not use the Euro and neither does the UK and neither have been forced to join the Euro.
Let’s get this SG thing of going for EFTA into proper perspective, shall we?
The FM has been playing this game for some time now. “The Scottish Government are considering every possible solution for Scotland to remain part of the UK but to also remain in the EU”. There is absolutely NO WAY that will happen. In the first place the EU would not allow it.
It is all a big kid on. We, (well most of us), know it and they, (The Yoons), know it but they are in a cleft stick.
No matter which side of the cleft they try to jump out of they are stuck, (if you pardon the mixed metaphors), between a rock & a hard place.
It is all how things work. EFTA have said they are not keen on A Scotland half in EFTA and half in the UK. There are many EU people making encouraging noises for Scotland out of the UK but in the EU and the UK is determined to keep Scots under the UK thumb.
I’m pretty sure the SNP want only Independence and this is all leading towards Nicola declaring a referendum but being able to claim, “I looked at every possible alternative and you all made the alternatives unworkable.
So we are going our own way … if the people of Scotland will just give us a mandate”.
No one can then say that the SG didn’t do their best to remain in the UK. It is all working out well, so far.
We have been told by the Supreme Court that we no longer exist as a fully equal partner kingdom of a United Kingdom but there is a document that says we are.
There is no other parliament of the country of England than Westminster and it claims to also be the UK parliament but it operates EVEL.
The law of Scotland says we are sovereign and so does the Treaty of Union. We are all EU citizens and the EU has no rules that can throw out EU citizens that want to remain.
There’s more but you should be seeing a picture emerging from all this by now.
Another thing – when it all starts to unwind for the Brexiteers their case will just crumble to dust. They will have only two options – decide they must stay in the EU or go their own way – and by that time it might well be as the country of England without Wales, N.I. and Scotland.
Perhaps as the latest state of the United States of America but a long way from their motherland and surrounded by European States.
Tartan fever, discussed this last with Ian B on previous thread. The links I posted there I repeat for you.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/time-catches-up-with-us-all/#comment-2225243
Seems my memory still functions. Knew that list of countries was familiar.
“We’re going to take out seven countries in 5 years, starting with Iraq, and then Syria, Lebanon, Libya, Somalia, Sudan and, finishing off, Iran” –
General Wesley Clark. Retired 4-star U.S. Army general, (Supreme Allied Commander of NATO during the 1999 War on Yugoslavia) .
http://www.globalresearch.ca/we-re-going-to-take-out-7-countries-in-5-years-iraq-syria-lebanon-libya-somalia-sudan-iran/5166
Tartan fever, all as described in the Project for the New American Century, PNAC. It also called for a new “Pearl Harbour” to focus America behind the effort. Well, they got 911 which was very convenient.
Soutron says:
30 January, 2017 at 8:44 pm
@Derick fae Yell That’s a good point. I’m convinced it gives us the best chance of winning iref 2 (the main priority). It just kills so many standard unionist scares in one go. We can always have full EU membership down the line if desired.
Polling data would obviously be handy. Do yes leavers and no remainers prefer indy EFTA over the alternatives?
best post on this subject
it shoots many unionist foxes and calls for a poll on yes supporters to see if they support this option
in truth, i dont like stereotyping people, but in general, the hard no voting orange brexiteers are not our target audience, it is folk to the left of them, efta/eea was the desired goal of ukip, farage bojo and until recently the PM,
I now yessers who voted remain maybe wary of the efta eea option but in my experience they tent to be more reasonable, pragmatic… polite even. this option turns things the yes movement on it head a bit.
are you willing to support this option if it brings about independence? ( i think this is the poll that soutron is talking about?)
bear in mind that within 3 years of indy, scotland will get a chance to vote on the eu question again. but this time in an indy scotland?
what say you indy supporters?
@cat
My bad!
Brian Doonthetoon on 30 January, 2017 at 10:10 pm:
Cheers, Brian!
@Alan Mackintosh –
More power to ye, bringing up stuff which has become virtually taboo.
And changing the subject entirely, what’s all this stuff about wormy cod upthread? It’s giving me the total boak.
@cat
Not paying attention before.
3 out of 4 of the EFTA members are in the EEA, Switzerland has its own bilateral agreement with the EU, so it’s part of the single market. In theory Scotland could go that route, but as you say there’s pressure for Switzerland to go for EEA / EU (not sure which).
https://www.gov.uk/eu-eea
mr peffers
In the first place the Euro claptrap is easy to discredit.
yes it is, on line, but the population of scotland last time believed this clap trap and voted no?
we are trying to craft what is the best, the most profitable tactic for us to take in indyref2
not what we necessarily want, just what is the best course for us to take?
we are so very close now folks, indy is now in our grasp. a 300 year old dream has been given to us to fulfill. blowing it, is not an option
RE: Trump – From WOS Twitter:
http://archive.is/12gSp
😀 And it’s goodnight from me.
@ Thepnr at 10.12 and 10.26
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montenegro_and_the_euro
It sounds like Nicola is again seeking a compromise with TM that would allow Scotland to stay connected to the UK, however once TM ignores that option we will still see Nicola going for full on Independence.
Stay strong there will be lots of insults and the like coming our way for the foreseeable future
SNP1 /SNP2 the end, roll the credits
@shrodingers cat
yesindyref2 is right in that Switzerland is not in the EEA despite being one of the negotiators of the original EEA deal with the EU it was subsequently turned down by the Swiss in a referendum so they opted out.
Instead they have a set of bilateral agreements with the EU covering free movement, Schengen etc. Full info for anyone interested here.
https://www.fdfa.admin.ch/content/dam/dea/en/documents/fs/00-FS-Europapol-lang_en.pdf
schrodingers Cat EFTA/EEA has long been my preferred option, but I would vote to be in a economic union with North Korea if that was the only way to secure Independence , so anything if it gets the desired outcome.
Wullie B
I hear you. Love Crovie too. A lot of well kent fishing folk retired along the Buchan coast, right over to the bright lights of Nairn. But fact is, EU membership has meant a recovery of fishing stocks and took 25 years too. Now its all at risk. Think on fisher folk. Your harbours could be empty and dead again, in a few short years.
@crazycat
OK need to do better research. I’ll change my statement to:
Only full member states of the EU can use the Euro LEGALLY.
As the Wiki article on Montenegro pointed out:
“Amelia Torres, a spokesperson for the European Commission, saying “The conditions for the adoption of the euro are clear. That means, first and foremost, to be a member of the EU.”
Thepnr, Re the Euro, I know what you meant to say, I think, but not quite right. The Euro is a reserve currency and can be used by any country if they choose to. That is different to being in the “eurozone” where the members have to follow the monetary conditions specified by membership.
Eu countries using the Euro;
Austria
Belgium
Cyprus
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany Greece
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta Netherlands
Portugal
Spain
Slovenia
Slovakia
Non Eu countries using the Euro;
Kosovo
Montenegro
Microstates using the Euro;
Andorra
Monaco
San Marino
Vatican City
These seven nations were not chosen at random. They were all singled out as exceptional security risks in the Terrorist Prevention Act of 2015 and its 2016 extension. In fact, President Trump’s order does not even name the seven countries. It merely refers to the sections of U.S. Code that were changed by the Terrorist Prevention Act:
As you can see this ban was already in the works from Obamma.
I hope Trump does his due diligence on Saudi as well
Wullie B. There’s a wummin stays here originally Hails from Crovie, it’s the name of her Hoose. Married to a Raeburn any relation?
Well I just read the presidential order again
There is no mention of muslims
There is mention of a temp ban on all people from certain countries until vetting procedures are in place
The BBC is certainly demonising the trump position. This is very strange given the government is todieing up to him
I think all snp MPs should Keep their powder dry
Marie black sounded daft tonight telling a black southern American he did not understand racismi
Brexit will mean chaos without free movement and travel. The 3 month US ban is chicken feed compared to that. Millions will be prevented from travel. There will be restrictions. The Tories are deplorable. They do not know what they are doing. The US/UK illegal wars caused the migrant crisis. Increasing migration into Europe. The Tories use that as an excuse to try and take the UK out of the EU.Trump and Russia are having to sorting out the mess.
Obama/Clinton have a nerve they caused the continued war in the Middle East, killing and maiming millions of innocent people. Trump is avowed to stop it.
The fishermen overfished the sea, Any governance would have to put on conservation measures. The fisherman are now using bigger nets with SNP/EU representation. The quotas are being increased, with less throw back. Migrants work in the fishing industry. The production would not succeed without EU workers Much of the catch is sold to Europe for higher prices. Under EU rule each port has a home port radius of 100 Kilometres? for the boats. There are no Spanish boats on the NE coast landing fish at the market. Foreign overseas workers man the boats. They are sometimes taken advantage of and paid lower wages and have to sleep in the boats. Illegal. They have died in onboard fires.
The fish market is being extended at Peterhead/Fraserburgh? £Millions being invested. The harbour is being extended. Aberdeen harbour is supposed to be extended to do decommissioning Oil work and give access to cruise liners. Dundee Harbour is being renovated to facilitate decommissioning work. It already does Oil rig construction refit work. Cruise liners dock in Dundee harbour mouth. The UK Gov reneged on promise of CCS investment at Longannet in Fife and Peterhead. Scotland could get EU more renewable Grants -CCS from the EU without Westminster interference. Their indecision blocks opportunities and access to EU grants and funding for Scotland.
Many workers went and worked on the rigs or on the supply boats for better conditions Fishing is a dangerous job with hard conditions. Many youngster will not go into fishing if there are other jobs available. It is seasonal. October to February for in shore prawn fishing. The worst weather months. The boats take on Oil work, if it is available for higher remuneration and better conditions. The underwater exploration is more difficult in colder weather. November to February.
The fishermen made £Millions. Led to a drug problem in some fishing areas. They were targetted because of higher disposable income and bored younger men with free time. Last year a fisherman bought the most expensive house ever sold in Aberdeen.
The Oil industry is picking up. The price is rising and the tax was reduced to 40% in Jan 2016. Brexit means the Fishing industry is increased £200Million? a year but losing £8Billions and 80,000? other jobs. The Oil sector lost 120,000 jobs in Scotland because Osbourne was taxing the Oil sector at 60% to 80% when the price had fallen 75%. The lost revenues could have been used to eradicate poverty and invest in renewables and the economy. Aiding growth.
galamcennalath says:
The Rev agrees and was offering a £50 bet on twitter to anyone who thought EFTA was genuine.
I just took the bet gala
feel free to question, track etc this bet
🙂
Shug, there was a report from USA (saw it on a twitter link) stating that Trump had asked Rudi Guiliani to come up with a way of banning muslims legally. Thats why its not mentioned as religion, rather as specific countries. That makes it legal(apparently) wheras on religious grounds would be illegal.
@ Artyhetty – yes there is a big jump there. Don’t know why. But the rest of the video is smooth enough. It’s a Livestream production so well done them for getting the talk out there.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=at1mfvFfuBo
Wull B I have seen worm in haddock (twice) when I lived in Aberdeen I used to get my fash from a van on the Thursday night, he used to buy every dat in the Aberdeen .market so it was fresh fash.
I mentioned thus to a girl I knew from
Huntley and she said her mother always put the haddock in a bowl of water and added lemon juice which brought out worms if any were in that particular fash. I tried it and it worked (once)
@ Ian Brotherhood – wormy cod = true fact. Stick to the haddock and chips.
Bottom feeders are not so bad now that EU water quality regs have improved the coastline. Don’t eat them if there’s a sewage pipe nearby. Or near Dounreay or Gordon Brown’s constituency, Dalgety Bay, or near Holy Loch.
https://archive.is/J28sK
Apart from that – fine!
Article on the Hootsman about todays talks on Brexit. Check out the state of the comments btl. That place gets more insane by the minute.
“Nicola Sturgeon: Coming weeks to hold key to calling indyref2”
https://archive.is/f6GcZ
Alan m
I am sure there are lots of background reasons but the BBC is making it up
They have actively presented it as something it is not
It is a sign there is an establishment campaign against the president. Forget what a daftie he is
May is courting up to him while at the same time undermining him
@Capella –
Noted, with thanks.
“Cod help us all…”
Alan Mackintosh
tx 4 that
but i thin what we were taling about was the eu ruling about those new states applying for eu membership being FORCED to mae a commitment to join the euro (even though membership of ermII isnt obligatory ist is a requirement to enter the euro zone)
those who apply to join efta/eea dont have to make this commitment
this is an important issue because being indy scotland would be forced to join the euro is a central plank of the unionists arguement against indy, regardless of how stupid a statment that is
Lenny Hartley says:
30 January, 2017 at 11:34 pm
schrodingers Cat EFTA/EEA has long been my preferred option, but I would vote to be in a economic union with North Korea if that was the only way to secure Independence , so anything if it gets the desired outcome.
yup, pretty much sums up my position regarding indy too
Just been watching a programme on BBC news channel with the presenter Evan Davis interviewing Guy Verhofstadt.
At the end he asked how much it would cost the UK to brexit and the figure quoted by Verhofstadt was 600 billion Euros!
Anyone else hear/see that?
Shurely shome mishtake…
Anyone can use the euro, it’s a fully (freely) convertible currency, with no or very few currency movement restrictions. Same as the pound, dollar. So you can get countries sterlingising, a possibility in Indy Ref 1, dollarising, euroising. The only way a country can stop its currency being used in that way by another country, as their country, is restricting the movement of currency. Some unionists claimed the rUK would do that to stop Scotland using it! Madness.
So Scotland could have the euro as our currency without being part of the eurozone and there’s nothing the EU could do except bring in monetary controls – the flow of money outside its borders. But then it would stop being a fully convertible currency.
Problems come if the country doing that has a high GDP and becomes a significant ratio of the total used of that currency. The dollar can manage it because the USA is huge. If Scotland had sterlingised, there could have been consequences over time for the rUK and the Bank of England – a reason the rUK Government would have probably gone for a currency union whatever it said. But hey, it’s all bluff in politics unless your name is Trump and you have a white jacket with sleeves at the back.
Shug, there you go
https://twitter.com/i/moments/825741921905565696
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3V7w9wWEAYesww.jpg
Even found you a video of Rudy Guiliani from 3.00
https://twitter.com/Evan_McMullin/status/825694659204767745
Just to add to that, it’s often called an “informal” currency union when another country uses a currency wihtout an agreement. With an agreement such as was expected between Scotland and the rUK, it’s a formal currency union. That used to have the unionists in knots trying to disagree with that one.
@Shug 11.42
Just because the guy was black and from the South doesn’t mean he can’t be an arsehole or bigot. He was defending Trump and the ban, that makes him a bigot.
Racism is judging people or making assumptions based on their place of birth/skin/country all things you can’t control.
You don’t think Trump referring to ‘bad dudes’ when defending his actions are Not racist?
If someone murders or bombs, I’m judging them on their violence and acts, not their Middle Eastern heritage, because that’s racism and how the Heil, Trump, Farage play the crowd, its why we are fighting Brexit.
There is only one race, the Human race. If only we could get that message out.
Trump may think he is clever using the 7 countries, but he now has 16 out of 22 Attorney Generals who have written to him. He has been condemned by the UN.
Two mosques razed, people dead, and as I’ve repeatedly said, a gift to Da’esh. This man needs stopping.
I seem to have temporary posting diahorrea, probably better than working. Onyways my personal solution for Scotland starting off would be to have two currencies, our own pound plus sterlingise, with our pound pegged to the pound sterling – to start with. It’s pretty easy, the pound scots would be local currency, the pound sterling would be foreign. Just as we have now in effect, and it could be done very quickly and probably very cheaply in terms of a central bank reserves.
Then after reserves build up the float, but kept at a near peg to the sterling for a transition time. Then the split. It’s similar to the history of the punt (Irish pound), though I’m not sure if it can be done these days with the EU and ERM sitting in the background, even if not part of it. Shrug. Scotland invented banking and economics, I’m sure we could do something better than the rest of them if we tried!
I remember people living close to the border used to take notes one way and 50p pieces the other, when the £ sterling was 1.1 punt. Enterprising people.
Oh dear. Theresa invites Trump to a State visit on the advice of a Foreign Office Committee which doesn’t exist. Now Boris claims to have consulted a non existent US ambassador.
https://twitter.com/RoguePOTUSStaff/status/826120665749213184
Yesindyref2, I remember there was a Livestream of Yanis Farouakis being interviewed by Commonspace, I think, where they asked him about currency. He said, you already have one, you have all the Scottish notes already in circulation… or words to that effect
Thats the link to Commonspace with Yanis
https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/2902/commonspace-journalist-michael-gray-teams-kiltr-yanisvaroufakis-interview
@yesindyref2
”
seem to have temporary posting diahorrea, ”
Just the content on currency. Sorry couldnt resist. I give up
@yesindyref
Apologies your second post re currency is more sensible than the first – regards using euro. We use a currency we have no control over at the moment.wouldn’t want that to continue
Peg would require good settlement in terms of £ reserves though and what we can export to former uk. Opens us up to speculators trying to break the peg – a la soros.
Bank IOUs denominated in sterling need to be redenominted in scot pound. These IOUs, (mortgages, loans etc) were money created out of nothing anyway.
Just a thought
Trump has banned entry to muslims & is probably monitoring the existing resident muslims regarding them as being a threat to the country.
Couldn’t we here in Scotland do the same to the tories. They are known to be a dangerous threat to the native people. Perhaps an 8am-8pm curfew & report to a police station on a daily basis. Spanish Inquisition comes to mind.
Ah, well, just a thought.
Just in case you had any doubts…
99% of Daily Express readers agree with Trump’s stance on immigrants.
Nana @ 6.14 I sent an e-mail (polite) to Nicholas Soames complaining about his behaviour towards Tasmina – out of order!
Too much to take in on this thread tonight- will try and catch up ‘ra morra.’
Loving the pictures of the demonstration outside Downing Street.
TRUMP DID NOT BAN MUSLIMS
TRUMP DID NOT BAN MUSLIMS
He signed an order to have additional screening on people coming from the countries mentioned in the order.
On Saturday the impact of the order was that 119 people out of 325,000 took a bit more time to get through security, but they did all clear
The first group to be slowed down was a Christian family
Aye, ian m, sorry my misinterpretation. But ruling class tories. Now, there is a threat.
@ ian m
Where are you getting that information?
It is different from just about everything else I’ve seen (except for a tweet from Trump), so it would be good to know which sources are more credible.
@scottieDog
First posting was just background to the euro – there was talk of the euro being used by various countries not in the eurozone. Pegging a currency – Denmark pegs to the euro I think, but has large reserves.
Reason for some sterlingisation is transition, to give companies and people time to transition rather than a day 1 thing.
I think the STUC were in favour of our own currency, but also the currency union first. Can’t remember what they thought if anything, about sterlingisation.
Having our own floating currency is the ideal, it’s getting there I think needs more thought, rather than rushing in. I don’t want Independence to hang around for 3 or 10 years as some have said, while we footer around with stuff about currency, nor do we want the electorate to be in fear of it and vote NO. It’s all folding multi-coloured paper and electronic stuff anyway!
The way the UK is going I think, once it’s a YES vote, it should be fast to Independence Day, not a nice leisurely walk in the park while the rUK does its crunchies. I definitely DON’T want a full formal currency union. No thanks.
@Alan Mackintosh
I vaguely remember that – I did do a lot of reading at the time! I wouldn’t have watched a livestream, but perhaps there was an article about it. Another thing I looked at was the Czech Republic / Slovakia split of course. Not quite suitable for what we’d want though.
Another thought. A minister’s daughter PM & a former PM the son of a minister. Wonder how they interpreted The Bible?
RT website says that Le pen is leading the polls and has 25-26% of the vote so far.
She wants Frexit and France to leave NATO. Comments under the article are crazy – she’s compared to Joan of Arc leading the French to sanity…
Geert Wilders is leading the polls in the Netherlands – wants to ban the Koran and close down Mosques…de-islamise!
Farage and Katie think Trump is right and we should have an ‘extreme vetting’ ban on Muslims here.
KKK putting out recruitment fliers in Maine and N. Carolina.
What is happening to the world?
When the bus is on a very bumpy stretch of road, it’s never a good idea to reach for the Thermos flask. Best wait till the road gets smoother. Much less chance of getting scalded then, or else spillin’ your tea all over your clothes, spoiling the trip perhaps.
Brexit sure feels like a bumpy road to me – and it sure isn’t finished yet, not by a long way. Best keep our Independence Tea in the flask, till it’s safe to drink.
Anyway, with Article 50 soon to be triggered, there might be a sudden jolt, with a sharp fall in Sterling and with stuff flying about all over the place.
Brexit is on a scale of self-inflicted disasters rarely seen, so much so that many brexit voters must have had second thoughts. For that reason, and for the well being of the UK, Theresa May really ought to have tried to negotiate a U-turn in the Leave camp.
Instead, thinking only of the opportunity to make huge political gains for the Conservatives and their neo-Liberal backers, May took the totally selfish decision to do nothing, except shift to the Right – and let the vote stand.
Wisdom trumps democracy when it is brought about by lies and fraud.
Nothing inclines me to think that much good is going to come of this.
Meanwhile May and the Tories have got what they want. The elite are satisfied that control remains with them. The electorate? They will be allowed to drift down over time, until eventually they will find themselves in near Medieval levels of poverty, sickness and disease.
It has been said that the Holocaust didn’t start in the Concentration camps, but rather with small things and over time it grew bigger and bigger, till the Concentration Camps were just the next step.
It might well be that Brexit is just the start of something which is going to get worse and worse and worse, until it becomes a living, painful nightmare of unemployment, poverty, hunger and sickness for huge numbers of people in the UK, with an NHS that has long since been privatised.
Where’s that Thermos flask. Ah need a cup o’tea.
Wilders may be the single most popular politician in NL, but there are limits to what he will be able to do if allowed to form a government. It probably wouldn’t last long – the guy is even more useless than our Tories and Trump: he’s not backed by a competent party, and would be exposed immediately.
And I read recently (New European, I think) that Le Pen has backtracked on Frexit.
Maybe I’m too optimistic, but I do believe that the stramash in the UK is going to dampen the anti-EU enthusiasm across Europe very quickly.
CAN YOU SMELL IT?
Speaking after the The Joint Ministerial Council (JMC) meeting in Cardiff between the UK government and devolved administrations, Scottish Secretary David Mundell confirmed “inter-governmental discussions” on proposals brought forward by the devolved administrations would be intensified.
He said: “The question is not about can there be differentiation [for Scotland], the question is whether Scotland would benefit from differentiation, and that’s what really has got to be at the heart of these intense discussions.
“Is it necessary to have a separate deal for Scotland, is the wish for a separate deal for Scotland driven by ideology or is it really based on economic fact and Scotland’s future needs?
“That is what we need to have a full and frank discussion about in the weeks ahead.”
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson added that Ms Sturgeon’s comments amounted to “more sabre-rattling”, saying: “Nicola Sturgeon should be using these talks to work with others from across the UK to get the best Brexit deal for all of us. Instead, she’s trying to pick fights to promote her own political agenda.”
CAN YOU SMELL IT?
Speaking after the The Joint Ministerial Council (JMC) meeting in Cardiff between the UK government and devolved administrations, Scottish Secretary David Mundell confirmed “inter-governmental discussions” on proposals brought forward by the devolved administrations would be intensified.
He said: “The question is not about can there be differentiation [for Scotland], the question is whether Scotland would benefit from differentiation, and that’s what really has got to be at the heart of these intense discussions.
“Is it necessary to have a separate deal for Scotland, is the wish for a separate deal for Scotland driven by ideology or is it really based on economic fact and Scotland’s future needs?
“That is what we need to have a full and frank discussion about in the weeks ahead.”
Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson added that Ms Sturgeon’s comments amounted to “more sabre-rattling”, saying: “Nicola Sturgeon should be using these talks to work with others from across the UK to get the best Brexit deal for all of us. Instead, she’s trying to pick fights to promote her own political agenda.”
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38790544
I think all the Unionist Parties would lose in a snap Holyrood election.
Tories would suffer for Mays sucking up to Trump and fu*ckshow handling of Brexit
BLiS will haemorrhage Unionist votes to the Tories
Fib Dems will lose Wullie Rennie
Greens will pay for splitting last years vote and bringing down the Govt.
SNP will win over the voters who seee NS/Scots Gov standing up to May over Europe, Immigrants and Human Rights.
Pretty sure most Polis, Fire and SNHS workers will support SNP too.
Which of the Brit Nat Parties will blink first?
Links
http://news.gov.scot/news/sealing-the-deal
https://abrutherford.wordpress.com/2017/01/30/did-bella-really-help-secure-a-pro-indy-majority/
http://www.politico.eu/article/nicola-sturgeon-were-running-out-of-time-on-brexit-theresa-may-scotland-independence/
https://itisintruthnotforglory.wordpress.com/2017/01/30/are-seeds-taking-root/
http://indyref2.scot/the-nightmare-no-voters-bequeathed-us
http://rbs.postach.io/post/on-the-escalator
Defending Freedom in Catalonia
http://archive.is/wz7Ne
https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/82838/polish-deputy-pm-urges-poles-living-uk-return-home
http://www.thecanary.co/2017/01/30/theresa-may-asked-resign-disgracing-britain-front-entire-world-video/
Trump part of a three-pronged attack on EU: Verhofstadt
http://archive.is/yZbMI
Tommie Gorman: Brexit – The La La Land Conundrum
http://archive.is/sPeXn
http://mlexmarketinsight.com/editors-picks/uks-tax-haven-brinkmanship-prompt-eu-kill-switch-brexit-deal/
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/01/30/brexit-and-free-trade-fallacies-part-one/
http://europe.newsweek.com/robert-reich-dangerous-rise-steve-bannon-549967
http://defconwarningsystem.com/2017/01/30/u-s-reviews-nuclear-strike-survival-for-russia-and-china/
http://uk.businessinsider.com/national-security-council-steve-bannon-new-barbarity-2017-1?r=US&IR=T
The acting attorney general was fired for defying Trump. Here’s the message she left for lawyers
http://archive.is/nmSsR
http://indyref2.scot/the-nightmare-no-voters-bequeathed-us
http://rbs.postach.io/post/on-the-escalator
https://www.politicshome.com/news/europe/eu-policy-agenda/brexit/news/82838/polish-deputy-pm-urges-poles-living-uk-return-home
http://www.thecanary.co/2017/01/30/theresa-may-asked-resign-disgracing-britain-front-entire-world-video/
@Nana
Quite a line up this morning Nana. It seems there is a perfect storm brewing across the continents. Hard to guage some days whether to ‘fort up’ from worry, or stock up on popcorn.
Seems Trumps next act is rumoured to be against the LGBTQ community.
http://www.lgbtqnation.com/2017/01/sources-report-trump-executive-order-lgbtq-community-coming-soon/#.WI-gsUQZ7Q4.twitter
@yesindyref
Floating currency actually requires less thought.
It is the norm post Bretton woods.
Defending a peg takes more thought and managemental and there are plenty examples out there of peg defaults.
@Macart
I read that last night, dreadful. Where does hate like this come from.
I must say I thought long and hard before posting some of the links in regard to Trump & Bannon. My friend says forewarned is forearmed. Geez what a crazy scary world.
Seems the bbc commissioned the tasteless Ullman sketch
https://twitter.com/Innealadair/status/826195317838245888
https://www.rt.com/uk/375587-trident-nuke-missile-failure/
Defending Freedom in Catalonia
http://archive.is/wz7Ne
For Leaders of U.S. Allies, Getting Close to Trump Can Sting
http://archive.is/u8tSN
RE: EFTA – EU conundrum…. How to put this?
I’m not fussed tbh.
Scotland needs political friends, allies and trading partners in the world outside of these islands. The world is interdependent. Our communication technologies have seen to it that our planet has become a very small place indeed. Its about who you wish to share sovereignty with and how much, because every treaty, every deal cedes some amount of your sovereignty. Its about the shared ideals and goals of the proposed trading partners (can you live with the deals?) and lastly its about the goods and the cash. How much wealth, influence and advantage for your people flows from the deal. THAT is how it should work. Y’know the ideological stuff first, working down to the cash and influence.
Pros and cons to both as I see it, but both options immensely preferable to our current treaty of union. A political union which smothers and limits our democratic choices, misuses and attempts to deconstruct our on loan sovereignty and treats our ‘partnership’ with, not respect, but utter contempt.
Anyone who has witnessed a PMQs, a parliamentary debate, an FMQs or simply a twatter spat can see how …valued… our government, or indeed our population are within this bestest family of nations ever. We’re regarded as a mushroom nation. Kept in the dark and fed on shit by both central government and their dog whistle media.
THAT is not democratic choice. THAT is neither friendship, nor partnership. Its not even a life.
So, no I’m truly not fussed about which way we decide to interact with our continental friends and allies right about now. Both models appear to be far, far superior and certainly more appealing than the one we have been ‘enjoying’ for the past three centuries.
No continental ever called me a porridge wog.
@Nana
‘Where does hate like this come from?’
The dark side of the force? 🙂
The good news is there are still folk willing to stand and say ‘NOT IN MY NAME’.
There are always those who hate mindlessly Nana and sadly always will be. We can only be the best example of an alternative that we can be in Scotland. We can choose differently. 😉
Ian M, have a look at my posting to Shug late last evening up thread. He didnt ban Muslims becasue that would be Illegal. Trump asked Rudy Guiliani to come up with a way to ban muslims that was legal.
Shug, there you go
https://twitter.com/i/moments/825741921905565696
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/C3V7w9wWEAYesww.jpg
Even found you a video of Rudy Guiliani from 3.00
https://twitter.com/Evan_McMullin/status/825694659204767745
manandboy 2.25
You wrote “…. May took the totally selfish decision to do nothing, except shift to the Right – and let the vote stand.”
Or, to paraphrase, there was a referendum and then May accepted the democratic outcome!
…. them bloody democrats again. What we need is manandboy as dictator in chief and do away with all this democracy lark. Forget the outcome of voting, what do the bloody proles know eh.
Macart
Im not sure it is down to personal preference, more a strategic choice to help us win indyref2
the rev pointed out a few weeks ago that an euref is almost inevitable after indy,
personal eu preferences can be booted into the long grass until after indyref2
The efta/eea option turns things on its head a bit, in that the Norway option was one favoured by many of the no/leave yes/leave voters, this is the target group for indyref2, one we need to convert to yes to win indyref2.
It is the hard yes/remain voters who are turned off by the efta/eea option but I think this group is more amenable to accepting this strategic compromise
People having to re direct their travel plans for three months, will have nothing on Brexit. if Trump stops the illegal wars. He has done the world a favour. Trade and give aid. Do not illegally invade. Bombing the Middle East to bits. Obomber.
Obamacare because Obama did not care. A public disgrace, Clinton was on the internet all night getting donations from Saudi’s. Protected absolute despot monarchies to bomb other Muslims. Using the US forces as merceraries to kill and main millions of innocent (Muslin) people. Soames ‘dog eat dog’. Military coming back winth dog tags and in coffins. Millions of innocent lives wasted.
Brexit will change the world economic. People and goods will not be able to travel freely. It will destroy the UK/world economy. People will face bans for life. The UK detached from 450Million neighbours for protection and common interest of equality. An absolute disgrace. The majority in the UK want to stay in the EU. The Tory are self combustion and trying to take Scotland down. When Article 50 is triggered. Scotland will have t get out of this destructive Union once and for all. Forever.
Nicholas Soames pissed again. Westminster MP should be drink and drug tested before they vote. What a shambles of disrespect. No one should have to put up with disrespectful abuse. Especially among Law makers. Westminster Unionist NP’s breaking International Law. Killing and sanctioning people. Brexit which their actions, have caused. Nicholas Soames should be charged with racial misogynistic abuse but they can say what they like in the HoC. Above the Law. Farague is a corrupt criminal. Committed electoral fraud. Tories committed electoral fraud in 31 Constituencies with impunity. The lying VOW. Evel and cutting Scotland budget year on year. Now Brexit a complete catastrophe. The Tories complete rocky horror show. They could not make a bigger mess. They always fail. Every time. Scotland pays the price. The Tories are trying to change the world order. Labour/LibDem are useless. The Greens are irrelevant. Inexcusably trying to feather their own nest.
Whenever Articie 50 is triggered. Scotland must have a date for another IndyRef. Put this abuse and lies behind.
Osbourne who ruined the Oil industry is now cavorting with warmonger Kissenger and McCain extorting money from the US political system. On several corrupt trips about learning about ‘Statesmanship’. After being paid by corrupt bankers for allocating £Billions of public money their way. What a joke that utter failure. Osbourne cost Scotland £Billions and thousands of jobs. They would have brought prosperity and full employment. In order invest in the economy, more renewables and cut poverty.
I just did a trawl through my notes and found this bit of research I had forgotten I had archived. The stats may well surprise you.
My pal tells me she saw Robin McAlpine on RT last night, anyone here see the segment?
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/drama-as-panelbase-release-their.html
https://www.commonspace.scot/articles/10213/clyde-after-trident-conference-launches-vision-nuclear-free-scotland
http://eulawanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/the-uk-brexits-euratom-legal-framework.html
http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/01/31/the-brexit-referendum-was-a-violation-of-human-rights/
Folk are aye shouting about respecting the will of the people except America didn’t did they
Hillary Clinton got 3million more votes than Donald Trumf but the American democratic system is so layered and engineered so as to produce the result the politicians want and NOT what the voters actually voted for
Do we think that’s by design to protect the voters from themselves or by design to create regimes that suit the real people who run America
When you think about it we didn’t get the Prime Minister we were supposed to get, we were supposed to get Boris but then Brexit won so he engineered himself out of that poisoned chalice (a la the Michael Gove plan) they then tried Andrea Leadsom who had a look at it and dumped the idea like a hot rock,
So who did we get, the complete ego maniac loser (not that the others were’nt) Theresa May who’s experience and success in the foreign office was only lauded by herself as she was the most inept home office minister of all time
So Scotland is ruled by the third choice loser in an Arse kicking contest that nobody actually won in a country that has only one MP in our country because nobody in our country wants the Tories at all
Drops the mike (Boom) and leaves!
@schrodingers cat
I only ever look at the strategic choice. 😉
I signed the petition to stop Trump coming on a state visit. I think it is morally wrong that he should be welcomed.
Just had a thought, though. Perhaps a state visit, with all that entails, might help the Indy cause.
The sight of the new front man for the American white supremacist ultra right being welcomed by the xenophobic isolationist far right of the UK might be revolting enough to shake some reality into soft NOs!
The pro Brexit lobby’s rapid moves to stand by Trump’s side may become a big six inch stainless steel nail in the Union coffin.
Are SNP voters becoming anti democrats? Expressing an entitlement not just to a parliamentary majority but a big one under a PR system without a plurality of the votes.
Some advice to all SNP fan boys and girls: get a fucking majority next time so the Greens don’t have to rescue you. Oh and if you want the Greens support the time to get it was just after the election. Yet Patrick Harvie reported he never got a phone call from Nicola Sturgeon to even discuss so much as a confidence and supply arrangement and oh look, they have to horse trade to get their budget passed.
My heart fails to bleed for them, it absolutely fails to bleed.
Oh and it remains the case that if you win all or almost all the constituencies in a region then your list divisors mean you need literally an order of magnitude more votes to secure a list seat over a party with no constituency seats.
The problem with the slight lowering in the number of Yes seats at Holyrood is that not enough SNP voters bought dirt cheap Yes seats by voting Green on the list.
Pretty much everyone who voted SNP on the list last time made votes which were worth 1/10th of a vote when a Green vote on the list would have been worth a whole vote.
You accuse others of being mathematically ignorant Rev but you cannot dispute the above. Unless you want to look stupid of course.
Regards the bad feeling between Greens and SNP voters etc. Wise up! We are at a crucial time and if its lost through the frilly knickered, hissy fits that some on here are whipping up, it will be on your conscious forever.
The Yoons are watching and will make capital out of it. They will see cracks in the wall and will attack at the weak points.
Beautifully said Macart @ 8.39am
‘ We can only be the best example of an alternative that we can be in Scotland. We can choose differently.’
= )
@Galamcennalath
Think you are right there, it would help us, watching the new order being paraded around, while the huge crowd chant, and are settled.
I signed the petition,not because that little old lady sitting in her palace needs protection, she has met plenty tyrants, but because Trump shouldn’t be allowed in at all.
Now the few sane ones left are desperately trying to bargain with May to downgrade the visit from state.
Have we ever witnessed anything so horrific, degrading and hilarious?
Wullie B
Good stuff Wullie.
“kettled”
Regarding EFTA/EEA
A country that has made this arrangement work for it seems to be Iceland.
They haven’t been tied up with the straight jacket that is the stability growth pact (sovereign debt is well over the 60%) and managed to issue capital controls to protect its economy which flies in the face of ‘free movement of capital’
The main gripe of leave voters I have spoken to is ‘folk comin here and nickin oor joabs’
It doesn’t seem to matter when you tell them that unemployment is a deliberate policy. Full employment was abandoned in the late 70s.
So free movement of people seems to stick in the craw of the less well informed.
P.s don’t feed the troll.
Scotspine @ 1004 – couldn’t agree more. We are an argumentative lot which can be great and informative. But the enemy is watching closely and they care not for right or real information – just to subject us some more colonialism!
Predominantly everyone on this site wants independence first and foremost. I myself voted Labour all my life.
One thing I do know for sure is that if we want our independence enough then it is NOT going to be through Green majority. Only the SNP have the ability to gather those numbers.
I used to vote Green as a second choice,but no more. My focus is empowering the Party I know who puts Independence first and foremost. The Greens see and use independence as a useful political tool and a vehicle to expand .Nothing more.
@ Schrodinger
The freedom of movement within the Schengen Area will not be an easy sell, as it represents a worse scenario to a sizeable proportion of ‘Leave/Yes’ than EU membership did. I agree with some of your strategic appraisals of EEA membership and SNP’s consideration of it (whether it be merely mooted, or defacto implemented) being worthwhile as a means to the end of keeping the power to continue to independence, but it’ll be toxic I tell ye..
Incidentally, I’m a ‘Don’t care either way/Yes’, so I’m OK with whatever until independence.
Muscleguy says:
Great pep talk Muscles:D
Why so rude though? Greens are a new party in Scotland. They’re getting an free ride off of Greens in Europe, a very free ride. Green’s in Europe have achieved incredible environmental progress, Greens in Scotland have achieved…
Personally, I’m puzzled why they dont go after the tories, who do run Scotland.
Without the SNP, Harvie and chums would be, I dont know town councillors, tories maybe.
WHAT Strategic compromise of EFTA???
We only have another chance of an Indyref at all because Scotland elected to remain in the EU, and rUK elected to leave, thus creating the constitutional impasse which drives a wedge between Holyrood and Westminster and warrants a second referendum.
There is no compromise in EFTA, it does not relate to any feature of Brexit, it is a situation would only/ could only arise AFTER the UK has left Europe, and any constitutional impasse between the Scottish government and the U.K. Government is framed in entirely dissimilar terms from that of Brexit, and furthermore, EFTA has no democratic mandate from the Scottish electorate, whereas fighting to stay in Europe properly and unambiguously has.
This issue threatens to be as divisive as the Greens or RIC. Why on Earth split or dilute the appetite for staying in the EU, a bulwark position which the EU is already reciprocating, and which affords us a legitimate platform to contest the subjugation of Scotland’s expressed sovereign will? You would have us walk away from that high watermark, and court favour with a new relationship yet to be negotiated from scratch with new partners who are sovereign states whereas we remain as a sub-sovereign region of the UK. Why? It’s madness. It is active endorsement of Brexit.
If folks prefer EFTA over the EU, then fine, but why use it now to divide the pro EU Mandate which Brexit has given us? Save it for a post-Independence referendum or plebiscite once Scotland has emancipated our sovereignty from Westminster’s control, and then, and for forevermore, we can chop and change our decisions as and when we choose.
I really don’t know, maybe EFTA is a better deal, I doubt it, but I’m open to persuasion, but right now, I don’t care. EFTA membership gives us no purchase whatsoever on Scotland’s democratic deficit and the subjugation of our sovereign will. EU Membership, in direct contrast, is going to demand sovereign status of Scotland; clear and distinct sovereign accountability separate from the UK. That is why I want to hold on to EU membership with every fibre and sinew.
Full EU membership is a worthy prize for any emergent new country, (I know, we’re not a new country, but our status will be renewed). The EU ball is already in the back of the net. Please, let us use this god given leverage to secure our sovereign independence, and defer talk of EFTA until we have tasted what it is like to be a sovereign voice in Europe, with our domestic news and foreign affairs unfettered by BBC Europhobic prejudices.
@galamcennalath
==================
Except that parts of Private Eye are true: Rotten Boroughs, Medicine Balls, In the Back. It annoys me sometimes how when I say to folk that I read PE they say “Oh that joke magazine” when you get more truth about politics and what’s happening there than in your average newspaper/media.
They do seem to have blind spot about the SNP, just repeating any Tory/SLAB slander without any checking. Not that the SNP should be immune to genuine criticism but they seem to fall down on that, for instance claiming SNP Futures Trust is no different (ie just as corrupt) as Tory/NLAB PFIs without bothering to find out the way they are run is quite different (although both use private money).
I don’t think it’s an anti-SNP agenda, I just think they are too London centric thus completely ignorant of Scotland and their dislike of all politicians makes them assume the SNP must be no different from the rest. Still doesn’t excuse them for being lazy over this though. Though still (partly) worth reading I don’t think PE has been anywhere near as good since Paul Foot died.
To further your point, Breeks, the biggest sell of the EFTA Schengen aspect to the population of a prospective adopter nation is that its people can easily leave the country and go elsewhere with the Visa – not something that necessarily resonates with a population currently neck-deep in deciding its own sovereignty, nor a particularly enticing prospect to those who want to continue to live in their newly ‘freed’ nation and work towards its prosperity.
Nb: just noticed that I used ‘EEA’ where I should have used ‘EFTA’ in my post to schrodinger. Sorry.
@Wullie B
============
A genuine question. How much of the problems with the EU and fishing is all down to the EU and how much down to our representatives in the EU seeing Scottish Fishing as no more than a bargaining tool to get other things for other parts of the UK? Could an Indy Scotland in the EU get more protection for our fisheries?
Ken 9.17am
RE Nicholas Soames
I think that was a shocking misogynist and racist attack yesterday and further more his apology was also misogynist. That is why I e-mailed him to complain about his disrespect.
I informed him that there was a recent court case regarding vile and abusive letters sent to Tasmina on account of her religion and that the culprit had been fined £500 and banned from contacting her for 5 years…. and that freedom of speech and opinion carried responsibilities.
I also said that we belittle ourselves when we belittle others. Hopefully i wrote a respectful letter – it certainly wasn’t a case of preaching but I could not let that behaviour pass unremarked. He is a disgrace to the position of MP and as he is my sister’s MP I felt I could comment by proxy.
Exoect i could be arrested today but heigh ho! Up with this I will not put!
@Wull
==============
I think the “wobble” is down to unionist media (with the help perhaps of 1 or 2 anti-EU SNP members). The SNP’s position seems to me to be: EU membership if we can get out before Brexit is complete. The assumption being that we would still be members of the EU or could quickly inherit the UK membership.
However if there is a quick and nasty Brexit then Independence the SNP appreciate that – depending on the other EU members – they may not inherit the UK’s membership. In this case the EFTA option would be looked at as an intermediary position if immediate EU membership was not forthcoming. At least that’s my reading of it and I think this final part of the SNP’s position is being spun (i.e. lied about) as the SNP changing their position over the EU.
Breeks you seem to forget it’s the SG that is bring up up EFTA/EEA whether they are doing this only for strategic reasons or have come to the conclusion that it’s in our best interests especially concerning Trade with England/Wales post Brexit, I know not. However, what people voted for in the referendum is no longer an option, there has been a material change of circumstances,That’s what was required to trigger Indy ref 2.
I think that having had meetings with all concerned, perhaps Europe has hinted at not very good trading terms with England and its remaining colonies and that with the so called UK single market in mind they have decided that EFTA is best way forward.
may and co are never going to allow Scotland to have its own international trading relationships, even if they did it would only be a short time until we went our own way.
@crazycat says: 30 January, 2017 at 11:21 pm:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montenegro_and_the_euro
Trouble with that particular link is that it is utter claptrap.
Here’s why –
The Euro is factually an international trading currency. You can prove that as it is quoted against the other International Trading Currencies on the Stock Market.
That is it is bought and sold on the open market like any other commodity. That is why you see the financial reports quoting each International Trading Currency’s value against every other International Trading Currency on each news broadcast and in every newspaper.
If you have not yet figured the significance of that out I’ll explain it simply :-
The Stock Market traders can buy any International Trading Currency when it’s comparative price is lower than another International Trading currency and minutes later, when the value goes up against another International trading currency, they can sell them at a profit.
Then they just keep doing the same thing for the rest of the time the market is open for business.
However, the days of traders on the floor guessing if changes are afoot and doing tic/tac hand-signals are long gone. Now they have computer algorithms that do the job for them. So there are thousands of computers all buying and selling international trading currencies against each other 24/7.
Now go figure this – these guys don’t give a damn about you or me and they do not trade in anything but international trading currencies. Thus it is in their best interests that governments do things that cause their currencies to suffer doubts about their economies and their currencies go down. If the pound falls against the Dollar then it is in the traders interest to buy pounds – and thus the pound recovers very quickly and the trader sells at a profit and buys whatever currency is then bottoming out.
It is thus a very tiny step for them to cause doubts in a government’s economy so as to make profits and you will note that all the Westminster Unionist parties are mainly infested with very rich people and supported by a great deal more very rich people. Do you really now need to ask yourself why?
The point is that it is claptrap for that report to be upset that the Euro is being traded on the stock market as it is just another international trading currency.
I think if the SNP went for a Norway/Swiss style EU agreement. That would satisfy most people in the short term. It is something that could be agreed pretty quickly. If we wanted full EU membership later on, that would require a referendum. the Norway model allows free movement, 1/3 of EU laws and critically access to the single market.
Surely it would push indi support over 60%!
@Thepnr says: 30 January, 2017 at 11:38 pm:
“OK need to do better research. I’ll change my statement to:
Only full member states of the EU can use the Euro LEGALLY.”
Naw! You are still wrong.
The Euro is factually an international trading currency.
It is quoted in value against every other International Trading Currency on the open Market.
Thus anyone, including countries, can buy and sell Euros. It is not illegal to use the Euro. Think about it – the use of any trading currency is to trade with it. If you go into the Newsagents and buy a Daily Wrecker then you are trading a currency for a
newspaper.So is a trader who buys Euros at a lower value and sells them when the value increases on the open market.
Yes the ECB will be uncomfortable with Montenegro, or any other country, unilaterally adopting the Euro for the very reasons given in that article due to it’s lack of direct control. As they can’t prevent it’s use then it follows that criteria for official adoption will need to be created. The most obvious would be the adoption of the financial restraints and policies in use in the official Eurozone. There might be a requirement for a central bank issuing a nominal currency that is never used but holding a major reserve of euros.
The Special Relatioship…
http://imgur.com/a/k8BF9
I would have thought the first thing an independent Scotland in the EU would do would be to call for an end to the present CFP and begin to re-structure it using examples of best practice and with regard to the scientific evidence.
Stocks in many parts of Scotland’s fisheries are at sustainable level – now is the time to lead on a subject on which we have the expertise, no doubt this has not always been taken into account by the UK in the EU.
Dr Jim disagree with you regarding the electoral college system in the States. I Felt the same way as you until I saw a video of how it works, it’s all to do with checks and balances in a Federation with a big disparity in size of member states.
The problem was not the electoral college but the Democrat candidate.
I think it’s perfectly possible to be a pro-EFTA europhile. Don’t let Farage’s ‘Norway option’ taint it.
ScottieDog is right to raise the issue of the stability growth pact as a reason for preferring EFTA, a totally arbitrary 3% fiscal deficit limit does not give us the flexibility we will need to build the kind of country we’d all like to see.
I don’t think this is divisive, we all seem to be in agreement. Indy is the main priority, whatever gets us there is the best route. Several posters have given good reasons why EFTA helps our cause, others have argued for the EU route.
If our best chance of Indy is with continued EU membership, great – I’d support that. I think it’s valid to consider which option gives us the best tactical advantage though.
The UK in the EU position we voted overwhelmingly for (in June) no longer exists. By the time the realities of Brexit come around, remain voters will be faced with essentially the same choice no matter which EU/EFTA option we go with: Vote no and leave the EU in the hardest possible Brexit or vote YES to retain single market access, free movement of people and ECHR protection. Those were surely the issues in peoples’ minds when we voted Remain?
As a YES/remain voter myself, it’s an easy choice. It’s the Yes/leave voters and No/remain voters we need to win over. They are the fertile ground, most (if not all?) no/leavers are probably a lost cause.
Once we have more data supporting which argument is most likely to win indyref 2, I’m sure we’ll all get on board. We can argue about the details post-indy over celebration drinks.
2014, BBC vote NO Scotland blast out at us,
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29189320
Deutsche Bank warning over Scottish independence
13 September 2014 Last updated at 11:25 BST
Deutsche Bank has compared a possible Yes vote in the Scottish independence referendum to the mistakes which led to the Great Depression of the 1930s.
2016, BBC vote NO Scotland, mute
http://money.cnn.com/2017/01/31/investing/deutsche-bank-us-fine-russia-money-laundering/
Deutsche Bank fined for $10 billion Russian money-laundering scheme
Kleptocrats rule the waves, UKOK style.
What’s the word from McTernan, the Patron Saint of Failed Predictions, regarding the subject of this article? Should provide some clarity.
Trump petition got another 8,508 signatures in the last hour…
Doesn’t look likely to reach 2 million, but still, it’s very impressive.
Just such a shame Katie Hopkins felt unable to sign…
@ Robert Peffers
I posted that Wikipedia link purely to demonstrate that there are countries outwith the EU which use the euro, contrary to Thepnr’s earlier assertion.
Here is somebody going from No to Yes: http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/john-wight/scottish-independence-is-_b_12512554.html
BBC Politics lunchtime show right now, listening to Micheal Carbuncle, one completely shameless dude. The creeps are really doing a lot to rehabilitate this guy.
I thought Stu Mac @ 11.03 pretty well nailed the EU/EFTA argument.
We are currently EU citizens – the very first words on the cover of your passport are: “European Union”.
The Brexiteers in power in Westminster are trying to rip EU citizenship from the people of Scotland, who have overwhelmingly shown they wish to retain this status. The SNP-Scottish Government is attempting to protect this EU citizenship of its people, within the constraints to being part of a United Kingdom which wants to leave.
A sensible Westminster Government would/should be trying to find a means of squaring this circle, but, we have to assume centuries of: “England knows best” thinking will mean, Scotland will be dragged out of the EU – UNLESS WE GET INDEPENDENCE.
There is no way Westminster will do it any way but their way,so, independence it must be.
From the SNP-SG position, timing is all. Nicola and her ministers have to wait until the full catastrophic effect for Scotland of leaving with England becomes obvious. They will then have to trigger Indyref2, then battle as they have never battled before, while the full weaponry of Westminster and their shock troops in the media is turned against them.
If they get the timing right, we will, at least, have secured the right to leave the UK, before the UK leaves the EU – then, Scotland could well be the inheritor state, which would involve minimum disruption, but, with our EU citizenship secured.
But, if we get it wrong, there is a very slight possibility that we would be both out of the UK and out of the EU, then, and only then, membership of EFTA would, I would reckon, come into play.
There is NO WAY the four EFTA members would countenance UK membership of their organisation, even if the UK applied. The UK economy is too-big, just as England has for over 300-years swamped Scotland, it would try to do the same with the rest of EFTA. The EFTA members know this, they will not allow the UK in.
But, an independent Scotland, similar in size to Norway and with lots in common would, I am certain, be welcomed into EFTA.
However, EFTA membership has to be seen as a fall-back position, only to be triggered if we cannot get continued EU membership, or a deal for early membership, should things still be up in the air after England leaves, dragging us reluctantly behind them.
As I said above, timing is everything. We may find ourselves, having won Indyref2, still bogged down in finalising the separation deal with England, as the UK separates from the EU.
O/T
The colonial media try to convince us there’s been no Brexit fallout (even though Brexit hasn’t actually happened yet).
Packet of biscuits in Tesco’s had been 40p for about the last 2 years. Since beginning of January it went up to 45p and then today up to 47p. An increase of 17.5%.
Get used to Brexit World folks – a fantasy utopia where wages go down, cost of living goes up and it’s all just hunkey dory according to these cretins.
They’re taking the piss – and the biscuit.
The freedom of movement within the Schengen Area will not be an easy sell, as it represents a worse scenario to a sizeable proportion of ‘Leave/Yes’ than EU membership did
but in the eu or efta/eea both require freedom of movement, so it isnt really an point of difference between them
btw, we cant expect everyone to vote yes in indyref2, best we can do is come up with a strategy that appeals to the greatest amount
eg, efta/eea would enable an indy scotland to negotiate a deal with norway regarding the fishing grounds, thus blocking spanish, eu and ruk fishing fleets from norwegian fishing grounds and ALSO scottish fishing grounds.
migration may be a big issue for some yes/leavers but i personally know loads of no/leave fishermen who would jump at the chance to vote yes for that.
bear in mind, that while the ins and outs and differences between eu membership and efta/eea membership might be a tad esoteric for the average scot, the fishing communities live with them, day in and day out, and know exactly what this means, they wont need to be told
@Nana 9:24am
Nana has already posted the link to scotgoespop but I believe it needs another mention. Some polling companies seem desperate to nudge the results of polls in the direction they want by using iffy questions.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2017/01/drama-as-panelbase-release-their.html
ScottieDog says:
The main gripe of leave voters I have spoken to is ‘folk comin here and nickin oor joabs’
It doesn’t seem to matter when you tell them that unemployment is a deliberate policy.
so what? it was also the gripe from the ukippers yet farage managed to convince them to vote leave so that they could have a Norway type deal with the eu
Norway has efta/eea membership
as I said before, the efta/eea option turns the indyref2 discussion on its head
to win, we MUST convince these yes/leave voters to return to voting yes, the efta/eea option will do that
it is the hard yes remainers we now need to convince
Well, if it’s the case that the SNP has quietly conceded that Brexit is going to happen before Scotland can secure its sovereign Independence, and is now preparing the groundworks for the next round of post-Brexit constitutional argument, with evil Westminster obstructing poor wee hard-done-by-yet-again Scotland’s attempts to join EFTA, with Westminster’s Brexit damage to Scotland already an event to be seen in the rear view mirror, then the SNP better come clean and say so, so I can vote for a party which will defend my European citizenship and EU Membership BEFORE it becomes forfeit.
I would rather lose a fighting Indyref2 against Unionist corruption and fraud all over again, than turn around at Derby, concede defeat by proxy and head home because I cannot be sure of victory and I’m too afraid of losing.
There is NOTHING; no principle or precedent, in Scotland’s attempts to join EFTA contrary to the will of Westminster which is not present and more potent in shovelfuls in Scotland’s attempts to say in the EU contrary to the will of Westminster. We are not fighting for choice over the EU or EFTA, we are fighting for the sovereign right to be making our own decision. If we lose that fight over Brexit, and God help us if we forfeit, then do not suffer any illusions, we are never going to win back sovereign control over EFTA.
If that’s the SNP’s plan, then Nicola better come clean, and we can seek to crowd fund a judicial review of Scotland’s subjugated sovereignty and seek justice for Scotland through its denied legal legitimacy rather than suffer any more of this democratic charade.
O/T SPOT THE DIFFEFENCE
Here’s the upcoming Six Nations 2017 Fixtures List opening day
Saturday 4th February 2017
Scotland v Ireland at BT Murrayfield Stadium, Edinburgh 2:25pm
England v France at Twickenham Stadium, London 4:50pm
Sunday 5th February 2017
Italy v Wales at Stadio Olimpico, Rome 2:00pm
And here’s how it’s being advertised on TV
Saturday 4th February 2017
England v France at Twickenham Stadium, London 4:50pm
Sunday 5th February 2017
Italy v Wales at Stadio Olimpico, Rome 2:00pm
First things first: an end to the union with England – by any means possible.
Stu Mac says: 31 January, 2017 at 10:50 am
A genuine question. How much of the problems with the EU and fishing is all down to the EU and how much down to our representatives in the EU seeing Scottish Fishing as no more than a bargaining tool to get other things for other parts of the UK? Could an Indy Scotland in the EU get more protection for our fisheries?
I suspect the answer is ‘Probably Not’. The Common Fisheries Policy as actually a restriction on the full application of EU principles of common access to a common resource. The full application of EU law would mean no national quotas at all.
Much would depend on how negotiations were handled by the Scottish Government, but the current CFP is probably near to being as good as it gets within the EU.
@Alan Mackintosh says: 31 January, 2017 at 12:46 am
” … He said, you already have one, you have all the Scottish notes already in circulation… or words to that effect.”
Yes! Alan, and I’ve been right here on Wings telling Wingers exactly that for a very long time. The missing bit of the matter is we first must have an independent Scotland to use the information that the Westminster Establishment is doing its best to keep suppressed.
We have ample natural resources. a surplus of food/drink, fuel, power and, (not generally seen as important … YET), good clean fresh drinking water.
The Scottish Per Capita GDP is consistently higher than that of any other UK country and our population are mainly of a quite different frame of mind.
Then there is a well known factor that will only come about with a free and independent country.
Historically all newly freed, or newly created countries, usually experience a great leap in their economies and there are several such countries dotted around us just now.
The Republic of Ireland, (that many Scots have Grannies and Grand dads in the family line), had as their biggest export, until fairly, their people. Denmark also is a recently freed country and but two such examples.
The myths propagated by Westminster are legion but can all be exposed as lies fairly easily. Currency is not really a problem. Neither is being in the EU as the EU does not regulate its member states anything like the way the UK regulates Scotland.
There are no totally independent states in the World but there is a great deal of difference between interdependence and total dominance.
There is only one thing that stands between Scotland and a bright future and that one difference is the mind set of the people of Scotland where ignorance, fear and complacency are the real enemies.
Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP position in Scotland
William Wallace and Scotland lost because of the same thing
nitpicky wee snipers moanin aboot me me me I want tae be the striker or ahm takin mah baw (two for one analogy there)
Breeks, we’re talking about the best way to WIN a second Scottish independence referendum. May’s behaviour is setting up a clear choice between full-blown hard Brexit or Scottish indy. Are you saying you would vote no if the SNP proposal was EFTA as a means of retaining almost all of the rights we enjoy presently as EU citizens?
Breeks says:
WHAT Strategic compromise of EFTA???
We only have another chance of an Indyref at all because Scotland elected to remain in the EU, and rUK elected to leave, thus creating the constitutional impasse which drives a wedge between Holyrood and Westminster and warrants a second referendum.
agreed
There is no compromise in EFTA, it does not relate to any feature of Brexit,
yes it does, the 2 main, some would say the only issues, discussed during the euref.
free movement of people
access to the single market
efta/eea guarantees both
it is a situation would only/ could only arise AFTER the UK has left Europe,
no, if we hold and win indyref2 within the 2 year time limit of brexit, we could be in efta/eea before the rUK has left Europe,
furthermore, EFTA has no democratic mandate from the Scottish electorate,
efta/eea is a lesser status than the 63% voted for, but its core qualities, FOM and single market are implicit and included in the vote by the 63%
whereas fighting to stay in Europe properly and unambiguously has.
the vote for the status quo was unambiguous, no question, but the status quo no longer exists, no even for the uk. You stat that we should “fight to stay in Europe” in indyref2 without actually saying or knowing what that actually means now? I voted remain to keep the status quo, the uk rebate, opt outs, no commitment to join the euro etc
Nicola does not have a mandate from the 63% to negotiate a different deal from the status quo, eg she does not have a mandate to commit to joining the euro (even if it isnt enforcable)
This issue threatens to be as divisive as the Greens or RIC. Why on Earth split or dilute the appetite for staying in the EU, a bulwark position which the EU is already reciprocating, and which affords us a legitimate platform to contest the subjugation of Scotland’s expressed sovereign will?
we are not splitting the vote, we are putting forward an option for us to fight for during indyref2 with a further euref on further integration once we are indy.
is it so difficult for hard yes remainers to thole the situation where scotland wont have 6 meps and wont be an full eu member for 3 years? for the chance to be indy while ensuring FOM and single market status?
I would remind you, if we lose indyref2, we lose all of these things. hard yes remainers need to loo long and hard at their priorities
You would have us walk away from that high watermark, and court favour with a new relationship yet to be negotiated from scratch with new partners who are sovereign states whereas we remain as a sub-sovereign region of the UK. Why? It’s madness. It is active endorsement of Brexit.
efta/eea isnt a embership that needs to be negotiated, it already exists, it is an off the peg option, one which only requires a yes no reply from the eu.
It is the uk deal which is the bespoke deal, created over years of negotiations, from which you propose an indy scotland negotiates a bespoke and tailor made deal. Bespoke eu deals are a thing of the past, this is why the swiss are being pressurised into joining the eea like the other efta countries. Once indy, the only eu options for scotland will be a swedish type deal, full eu membership, without the euro, full membership with the euro.
neither of these options is or has been mandated by the 63% who voted remain. you would need another euref after negotiations,
If folks prefer EFTA over the EU, then fine, but why use it now to divide the pro EU Mandate which Brexit has given us?
to win indyref2
Save it for a post-Independence referendum or plebiscite once Scotland has emancipated our sovereignty from Westminster’s control, and then, and for forevermore, we can chop and change our decisions as and when we choose.
thats the point, efta/eea to win indy, afterwards euref to decide further integration
I really don’t know, maybe EFTA is a better deal, I doubt it, but I’m open to persuasion, but right now, I don’t care. EFTA membership gives us no purchase whatsoever on Scotland’s democratic deficit and the subjugation of our sovereign will.
if efta/eea membership is the eu option chosen for indyref2 and we win, then we get our sovereignty back
EU Membership, in direct contrast, is going to demand sovereign status of Scotland; clear and distinct sovereign accountability separate from the UK. That is why I want to hold on to EU membership with every fibre and sinew.
if we win indyref2, we get our soveriegnty back regardless of which eu option we chose, if we lose, we lose everything.
Full EU membership is a worthy prize for any emergent new country, (I know, we’re not a new country, but our status will be renewed).
accepting efta/eea membership to win indyref will only delay eu membership until after indy, about 3 years?
The EU ball is already in the back of the net. Please, let us use this god given leverage to secure our sovereign independence, and defer talk of EFTA until we have tasted what it is like to be a sovereign voice in Europe, with our domestic news and foreign affairs unfettered by BBC Europhobic prejudices.
once again, it is a question of priorities, putting the cart before the horse, I dont disagree with anything you say breeks, just the order and manner in which we should go about trying to achieve them
Breeks says:
31 January, 2017 at 12:42 pm
Well, if it’s the case that the SNP has quietly conceded that Brexit is going to happen before Scotland can secure its sovereign Independence, and is now preparing the groundworks for the next round of post-Brexit constitutional argument, with evil Westminster obstructing poor wee hard-done-by-yet-again Scotland’s attempts to join EFTA,
breeks, i think you are confusing 2 separate things here
1. the efta/eea presently being discussed by nicola and treeza is a compromise for scotland to retain fom and single market while remaining in the uk.
2. I dont now anyone who believes that westminster will agree to anything proposed by holyrood. more full them, if treeza agreed, then put forward this compromise for scotland during brexit negotiations, it would almost certainly be refused by the eu, treeza then could at least say to scotland, hey, I tried. But she wont, she will dismiss Nicola’s compromise out of hand and the scots will blame her for dragging them out of the eu against their will. It is just politics, rhetoric and a means to highlight division and hypocrasy between london unionists and scots unionist who support staying in the single market. It is a phony war breeks, everyone knows that indyref2 is coming,
3. the efta/eea being talked about here is the tactic and strategy we deploy during indyref2. once indy, we regain our soveriengty and can do whatever we like
Derick fae Yell
efta/eea membership gives scotland full control over fishing and agriculture
it could if it wished, cut a deal with norway which would enable scotland to block, spanish, eu and ruk fishing fleets from scottish and norwegian fishing grounds
🙂
Gforjeepers 12.47
I noticed that as well. Scotland/Ireland the first two nations to kick off not mentioned once. Be as well playing in Mongolia. Mis reporting again
Paula
see my reply to dere fae yell
Sandycraig 1:47 pm
You wrote “I noticed that as well. Scotland/Ireland the first two nations to kick off not mentioned once. Be as well playing in Mongolia. Mis reporting again”
… Ah, good subject. I think its all about money and interest levels. Scotland used to have a rugby team (a football team too!) but times change. The Rugby world is now more interested in the clashes of the titans, like England V New Zealand or Australia when world champions and ex world champions lock horns in battles at the highest level of the sport.
Of course, there is always a chance of an upset. Sutton United might beat Arsenal in the next round of the FA cup and many of will watch in hope – but it is more likely that Ms Sturgeon will defect to the Tories.
Soutron – 11.39 – Like you Yes and remain. But I think the tactics should be whatever EU policy suits the majority of yes voters. Why start behind losing the Yes/Leave voters, when we can start ahead and finish ahead. That is not compromise or cynical, it’s just democracy and common sense having a policy the majority can agree on.
The journey is not that important. You can’t do anything at your destination if you never reach it.
I have expressed no desire for EU or EFTA membership because right where we are now I would accept either scenario rather than none at all.
Losing Indy2 will mean none at all and the SG and their panel of experts who have looked at this are obviously taking seriously the idea of EFTA membership.
Why might this be? Well for a start our biggest trading partner the rUK will not be in Europe and with full EU membership for an Independent Scotland we would have to abide with any trade agreements that the EU makes with rUK. This will likely mean tariffs between Scotland/rUK.
Of course this wasn’t the case in 2014 where everyone assumed that the rUK would be remaining as a member of the EU therefore if Scotland too was in the EU trade would carry on pretty much as before between Scotland and England.
This is far from the case now and is one of the reasons that you are hearing of the mythical UK “Single Market”. UK trade is worth 4 times more than EU blah blah blah. I don’t want tariffs between us post Independence as I think this will harm both economies and we have no idea at this stage what any final agreement between the EU and rUK will look like.
Most importantly though is that we have to win Independence first, does anyone really believe that before we have this referendum and assuming it is before Brexit has happened that the EU will have guaranteed Scotland would continue as the partner in place of the UK?
During negotiations between UK and EU on exit, the EU will turn around and announce Scotland can continue. Personally I see that as far fetched. So if I’m right we will be fighting Indy2 with the same lies that we got in Sept 14.
You will be out of the EU and have to reapply.
You will be at the back of the queue behind Turkey, Bosnia ect.
Spain will veto you and you won’t be able to join.
Now a statement from the leaders of the 4 EFTA countries saying of course Scotland would be welcome as member of EFTA I would think would be much easier to achieve. If it’s not then it’s not.
Once again the next Independence Referendum will be all about propaganda and public perception. If we had an open door to free movement and the single market in place BEFORE the referendum through EFTA, that would wipe out much of the propaganda at a stroke.
I honestly cannot believe we would get any kind of commitment from the 27 EU member states BEFORE we have a referendum or Brexit. It would kill any negotiations between the UK and EU stone dead.
As I said I’m not arguing nor supporting EFTA over the EU or vice-versa. Just what could bring the greatest number of votes over to the Yes side. The SG is right to consider all options.
Aye sensibledave, a good subject indeed.
As I recall England used to have a fitba team as well until Iceland…
Here’s hopin your titanic rugby team doesn’t go the same way ;-D
To be perfectly honest if the Dark Side of the Moon Party was the best bet for getting Independence I’d vote for it, and if it didn’t exist, I’d start it.
@ Ian Bro’ the wee white threads in cooked cod are indeed cod-flavoured worms, conger eel even worse. I think seal shite is part of the life cycle of these parasites? Hoovering up the sand-eels is blamed for the collapse of sea-bird colonies!
@ Cat, is that the Newhaven Fluckers? Had a Shetland g’t grannie who according to the census lived in the Leith Fort, was that a jile? I assume it’s yersel laying intae the Saxons on the Guardian lately? Good work kid!
@ Socrates, this fat bastard Soames, when Charles’ equery, threatened Diana on the phone with a car accident & guess what? His former wife claimed that sex with Soames was like lying under a double wardrobe in which somebody had left a very small key! 🙂
Nana, thanx for the linx!
I’m joining this debate late, but I’m with Breeks here. Giving up on full EU membership, as the people of Scotland overwhelmingly voted to retain, would be a betrayal of trust. It’s one thing to try to garner support by bending over backwards to be reasonable within a all-UK context, quite another to punt it for full independence. A pusillanimous political wangle, supposedly intended somehow to maximise support for indyref2, would actually undermine the case for indy, not strengthen it. Just another party-political fix to be dismissed as “partisan” and “divisive”.
Right now most people unconcerned with the minutiae of politics want a future that’s as predictable as possible, and Brexit is far removed from that. Soft Scexit as a pale imitation of hard Engexit offers merely a slightly warmed-up version of the same uncertainty. All just to pander to a few waverers who have been temporarily fooled into thinking that there’s anything more important that independence first?
But one canard punted by the EEA/EFTA fans needs to be put to rest. It’s only by staying in the EU that iScotland will be able to properly defend its trade with rUK. As May & Co have made clear to anyone who will listen, most recently to the Irish – still in the EU, note! – they want open trade with all. Especially the EU, of which Scotland would still be a member.
The EU offers trade security going forward into indy that EEA/EFTA can’t possibly match.
Robert how do you know everyone that voted remain wanted full EU membership. Some may have wanted the single market only , others free movement, others the social union. Me yes I wanted full membership. I don’t think it’s betrayal it’s just common sense to establish what the majority of Scots want and place us in the best position to deliver it.
The betrayal is the UK taking us out against our will and not even allowing us a differential agreement. Without independence we lose everything.
Big Jock:
Well, that’s what it said on the ticket!
I know, referenda are not generally as simple as that. All sorts of undercurrents have to be resolved into a binary vote. But it works both ways. I know for a fact (‘cos they said so) that a number of indy supporters deliberately voted leave in order (as they saw it) to provoke a crisis. So what?
In the end, the result is the only tangible thing. That’s what UKGov on the UK-wide result are using to browbeat us with. Which is an affront, but is all part of the to-and-fro.
Chucking away some of your best weapons before a big fight is not the smart way to win a battle, let alone a war.
Thepnr@3.32pm
Well said! Anyone can see that Project Fear2 has begin and saw something on Twitter about the Unionists meeting with the right wing in Spain to fight against Independence for Catalonia and Scotland. (Didn’t know how to put that tweet on here)
They are preparing to stop us, we should be prepared for anything.
G4jeepers
… it’s nice to have a bit fun for a change G4!
Sadly, you make a good point about the england football team. I say team, when that is actually the problem. A team is supposed to be greater than the sum of its parts and that is not the case. The Japan v South Africa match in the RWC was a huge rugby highlight for me – where a “team” played as one unit with one aim and a plan. Absolutely marvellous performance!