Back down the slide
We’ve just got the tables from a new Panelbase poll back, and they make grim reading for Labour (North British Branch Office) on the eve of their conference.
Holyrood voting intentions (constituency):
SNP 41% (nc)
Con 27% (+2)
Lab 19% (-4)
LD 8% (+2)
Grn 3% (nc)
UKIP 2% (+1)
(1002 Scottish voters, 2-6 March 2019)
Changes from December 2018
That’s getting perilously close to the all-time low of 14% achieved around the tail end of Kezia Dugdale’s disastrous leadership. And the list vote isn’t much better.
Holyrood voting intentions (region):
SNP 36% (-2)
Con 26% (nc)
Lab 19% (-3)
LD 9% (+2)
Grn 6% (nc)
UKIP 3% (+2)
But even with astonishing leads of 14% and 10% after 12 years in power, the SNP have nothing to be complacent about either – according to the Weber Shandwick seat projector, these numbers would give Nicola Sturgeon’s party 57 seats and the Greens just 4, meaning Holyrood’s pro-independence majority would be a goner and the Nats would need backing from at least one Unionist party to pass any bills, meaning no new mandate for an indyref.
Like everywhere else, Scotland is currently split down the middle and nobody knows which side of the tightrope it’ll fall off in the event of a push.
Scotland is in great peril.
I can understand the position Labour finds itself in – but how on Earth do the Tories maintain such numbers given that they pose the greatest danger to Scotland and its people ?
Are people really so stupid or are they out of touch with what the Tories are doing to us ?
I am now in this stage of my life where I am wishing I was never born Scottish……….How can these people still be against Scotland being independent.
James – I think some of the tory vote is just an out and out protest against Independence. And another section of that vote may wear orange jackets and play the flute – possibly.
How is it humanly possible the Lib Dems went up when they’re barely even a party, who votes for these people?
Willie Rennie Cole Hamilton Mr Bumbles Jeezus wept!
The Scotland Act 2016 included powers over elections.
The method for choosing List MSPs could change in time for the next Scottish Parliamentary Election.
The present system for selecting List MSPs is based on Regional voting.
This system differs from some European countries whose systwm is based on National voting.
Not sure what the outcome would be if the National vote was the preferred method in the last Scottish Parliamentary Election.
And with our position balanced on a knife-edge, there are idiots proposing a new Indy party just to make sure we topple. Imbeciles.
Looks like it’s time to let us all loose to get campaigning!
We could change those numbers,and, we’re go to go
As others have said I cannot believe my fellow Scots citizens could be soooo stupid to vote for the britnat parties . Am I living in a parallel dimension , these britnat loonies are PROVING every day that they are not fit to even run a menage , it is one clusterfuck after another , whilst the SNP SG are competently governing Scotland to the best of their ability
I have said before that maybe if the Scottish government stopped mitigating wastemonsters austerity measures and instead enforced them it might waken a few people up to how well off they are , but unfortunately these dafties would probably only vote liebour again and it would harm some of the awakened ones
Fortunately for me I believe the old adage that polls are designed to form opinions rather than gauge opinions
When canvassing in 2014 I returned Conservatives at 25% ish but was told this was a blip.
Now the Unionist OAP forelock tugging OO GSTQ blip hasn’t moved.
A last hurrah!
If the SNP call it and lose well they (should) just pack up .
Because the shit storm coming from a Brexit deal or a NO deal will hurt Scotland big time.
If they are in power at Holyrood they can’t mitigate the horror to come.
WM might have the balls to try to direct rule Scotland.
So I agree Indy before 2020 or we just become an economic backwater. For several generations.
What the hell is wrong with Scots? Ireland broke free after 800 years of brutalisation, brainwashing and attempts to eradicate their native culture. Scotland has been under the thumb for just over 300 years but so many of its own people are so keen to be ruled by the country next door.
Scotland, truly a nation of political freaks.
interesting
https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/news/politics/3964432/nicola-sturgeon-scottish-independence-indyref-keith-brown/
also latest poll results –
has anyone done any serious modelling with that weber shadwick thing? – is it any good?
http://www.scotlandvotes.com/holyrood
I have been playing around with it for a bit, and it looks like the dhondt system is setup to absolutely shaft the SNP
most people have no idea how fucked this dhondt system is – even when I first heard about it I thought
– half the seats were FPTP
– then the other half got dished out on a proportional basis on the list vote – maybe a lot of people think this too
its a fucking weird system when you look at it
– and the decision to use it … NOT EXACTLY AN ACCIDENT
fucked up PR voting = STATUS QUO
I am looking at this thing and I am trying to hack it … and I come up with something interesting
– but I do not like it, dont like it at all, and I even suspect there could be something dodgy about it
– it needs to be investigated
ballpark figures from opinion polls leave nationalists stuffed
– the SNP are maxed out on consituencies and get next to nothing from the list
– no matter how you look at it, a ton of tory and labour arseholes get into the chamber
but try this – take the likely opinion poll numbers, then on the list – give ALL the SNP votes to the GREENS – all of them
the SNP lose a couple of seats but the GREENS get LOADS
– nationalist parties end up with 86 seats
“logic dictates” that
all nationalists should vote SNP only on constituency
all nationalists should vote GREEN only on the list
– this result seems robust to any fiddling or tactical measures from the other side
OF COURSE the MODEL could be total shit … or someone could be playing games
– trying to make us desist from SNP-SNP
– it makes it look like an SNP list vote is, indeed, a wasted one
but, lets just say, I have a healthy skepticism about “models”
– e.g. if you give the libdems NO VOTES at all, they still win 4 seats
someone needs to take a range of these models and run a big monte carlo on them
cannot see myself ever voting green … I dont like tactical voting at all
fucknell, stayed up too late messing with that thing
Nicola …. as blunt as I can say it … “you MUST demand a Section 30 Order” … and if refused, either A./ hold a non-binding consultation Referendum on Independence … or B./ go to the Scottish People and ask for an PARLIAMENTRY MANDATE to withdraw from the Act of Union … prevarication is no longer an option … I do understand that are waiting to see how the “cards fall” .. but the sands in the hour glass are running out !! … those of us who have the interest of our Country & it’s People at Heart need your Leadership … NOW
Depends on the question asked of the voters in the next election.
The Tory vote will be unionist. But the Green vote and some Labour vote will be pro independence. What difference does it make if the constituency vote rises to SNP 45%?
If you want to stay in Europe, you are going to have to vote SNP.
Stu.,
Excellent article as always. Thanks.
Just out of curiosity…
Did anything ever come of that genius idea you had of creating a second indy supporting party that had the net effect of significantly boosting the LIST MSPs at Holyrood? This, in turn would virtually guarantee a pro-indy majority?.
Cheers,
Al.
This Panelbase poll supports a view over it, that while Independence is supported by (result not out yet) between 45% and 50%, say 50%, the Indy support from SNP voters may be even as low as 33% (or less) [1] with 5% from the Greens, a figure you’d have to invent as it’s not specified as perhaps 2% from SSP / RISE / Solidarity, leaving between 5% and 10% from the three other parties – Labour, LibDems and Tories. Maybe even UKIP!
[1] The vote for the SNP drops from 41% to 36% in the list vote, with other voters “lending their support” to the SNP Constituency vote for Indy, and a post-Indy Ref 1 poll showed 14% of SNP voters voted NO. Allowing for this to have dropped, it still means not all SNP voters would (currently) vote YES, hence the further reduction from 36% to 33%.
The point of this is that maybe 2/3rd of current YES voters are SNP voters, and probably 1/3rd are NOT SNP voters.
And that means very clearly, that expecting a full 1/3rd of Indy supporters to mindlessly defend the SNP who they wouldn’t normally vote for, and all and any of the SNP policies, is indeed totally mindless.
Because of the current persistent attacks on anyone who doesn’t say the SNP are perfect with people accusing any dissenters as fake Indy supporters, a practice the Rev really really needs to lay down the Law on because this blog is losing more and more regular posters and supporters as it goes along, and perhaps the Rev to even write a blog post on posting etiquette to remind these recalcitrants of the rules, I will not be replying to any of the current coterie of Indy supporter attackers and their followers, who attack Independence supporters who disagree with them.
If this blog does not support open debate it dies.
Glen Campbell reports that the EU Parliament are retaining their Edinburgh office till the end of next year.
European parliament to keep Scotland office after Brexit – http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-47477629
I don’t think we are anywhere near peak Tory. There’s 12% list voters in the Lib Dems and UKIP who share the same unionist values. Another Holyrood campaign focused relentlessly on saving the union could see half that number switch to Con.
I know former Lib Dem voters in the borders who switched to Con because keeping the SNP out was the single most important issue to them. The question is, are people like that saying Libs in the polls but going to do something different at the ballot box?
The real worry – though there is no sign of it happening – is the British nationalist parties combining in Scotland to form one single unionist option.
The SNP has definitely lost the way a bit though. The kind of Jim Mather engagement they did with businesses around Scotland after 2007 could do with a return.
Sad to see a rise in votes for UKIP though I suppose anything that splits the Unionist vote is good.
I think that the Snp can win the indy ref 2 by a huge margin by increase old age pensions to at least the european average.
This is needed as brittish pensions are amongst the lowest in the developed world.
I think we may need to promote a Norwegian option rather than just an EU option. Will pick up some votes from brexiters and fishing fraternity as well as show our hostility to Spains attack on Catalonia and the EU turning a blind eye
The LibDems are the new home for the remaining ex-Labour voters “Anyone but the SNP”. It is an improvement on voting Tory as the did in the last election.
It’s that 3% difference between the SNP constituency vote and list vote that’s the killer.
2011 = SNP constituency & list vote the same = majority Government and an Independence referendum
2016 and on. Enough people are splitting their vote to reduce the combined SNP constituency+list vote in a doomed attempt to vote tactically in a proportional system = no majority
Personally I’d abolish the list entirely and allocate top up seats on the basis of constituency vote share.
Like Hamish100 it seems obvious to me that the European position needs to be widened to EEA membership via EFTA-EEA.
We really need to lose the magical thinking about the EU (the most rule driven organisation on the planet) inventing a magic way for Scotland to have membership without joining by the normal process. Thinking otherwise is British exceptionalism in a kilt
Like the ‘suspicious packages’ with irish stamps and a return Dublin address on the envelopes, I simply do not believe this poll.
‘Wag The Dog’ from the Brit Nat Black Ops Mob now kicking into gear.
Another SNP Sex scandal to coincide with conference?
The Scotsman’s anonymous hack reports that the RBS’ letter from Ireland contained ‘promotional material’.
I regularly destroy bumph shoved through my mail box too.
Indyref 2 now, with 22 days to go ’til Eurmageddon.
If Scots citizens vote No again, I despair.
But we must grasp the thistle now.
it just gets better and better. sorry for the negativity but the country just continues to be lead down the garden path by unionists. tories no less. makes my blood boil
Did you ask about Scottish Independence Rev?
Because that is the only poll we should be interested in at this moment in time.
A Scottish Parliament vote in three years time is just not on the radar at the moment.
We need to link Independence with the Bifab story etc (see bid news about offshore energy work).
GMB & Unite blame sovereign wealth funds in middle east and state backing of rival foreign firms for loss of the bid.
Ooppps! Don’t GMB & Unite back London rule on Scotland?
Why should the polls change much in favour of independence when it’s unclear when or if a referendum will take place. I suspect that another referendum, with a campaign leading up to it with much clearer evidence providing a strong case for independence and exposing many serious weakness of the UK, would push the votes above 50%, maybe to 55-60%.
But without the real prospect of actually having another referendum, I suspect that without a campaign to highlight issues in a concentrated way, rather than the scattered way that happens day to day outwith a campaign that leads to a referendum, a lot of people will be relatively uninformed about what’s at stake and will respond to a poll on that basis, or not take seriously being asked what seems a theoretical question.
The ability to hold a referendum as things stand seems questionable at best. It needs to be addressed before it’s too late.
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/section-30-scotland-act-1998-important/
Another wee defeat for Meaningless May.
‘Brexit: Theresa May suffers humiliating Lords defeat as peers demand UK stays in a customs union.”..
”Theresa May faces a fresh headache over her Brexit strategy after peers inflicted a defeat on the government in favour of keeping the UK in a customs union with the EU.”..
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-theresa-may-lords-customs-union-eu-trade-a8811361.html
Without foreign funding from their parent parties (and possibly ‘other’ sources), the Lib Dem and Labour branch offices would not even be able to contest all the seats in the Scottish Parliament. Doubt they could afford the deposits to stand, never mind any campaign materials beyond the free publicity they get from the BBC and ‘news’ papers.
In an Independent Scotland, which could become reality before any Scottish Parliament elections, the SNP might not even exist.
There could be new Parties formed.
So as I said above, This poll about Scottish Parliament voting intentions seems a bit meaningless.
Meaningless. A Poll of 1,000 people? Having a laugh. The Polls are used to manipulate the result. There is no proof of accuracy. A game of chance. A Poll for two years time. So much can change in that time especially in the present circumstances. There could have been a GE, a EU Ref or an IndyRef within that time. Or all three. Highly likely with the shambles at Westminster. The unionists destroying their own Parties,
Every Poll, especially of tight margin, has been wrong,(seriously wrong) in many cases worldwide. It would have been more accurate to put a tail on a paper donkey blindfolded.
Even in two years the demographics, by all accounts, will have changed. 2% to 3% a year unionist voters will keel over. A swing of 4% to 6%. More than necessary,
A meaningless joke.
Keep the head and hold the line. . For goodness sake stop criticising the SNP representation irrationally and continually. It just get used for negative ammunition and publicity. Propaganda by May.
It is all still in play, everything and everything to gain, SNP/SNP all the way, and no other. An all out majority has been acheived before and can be again quite easily,
It just needs the same advise convince one other. Easily done. To counter the criminality of the Westminster minority Gov and achieve victory for good governance. The SNP are still doing a good job in extremely difficult times.
Derick fae Yell says:
It’s that 3% difference between the SNP constituency vote and list vote that’s the killer.
2016 and on. Enough people are splitting their vote to reduce the combined SNP constituency+list vote in a doomed attempt to vote tactically in a proportional system = no majority
——–
snp got 45% of constituency vote in 2011 and had a majority, in 2016 they got 46.5% of the vote and failed to win a majority.
in mid scotland and fife, 6 of the 7 list msp positions were won by unionists. one green, had all voters who voted on the list for the greens voted for the snp, then all 7 list msp’s from this region would be unionists.
fact
in 7 of the 8 regions, all of the snp votes on the list manage to elect 1 snp msp (marie todd) fact
i am not surprised the green vote has gone down, the indy movement dont trust them, but the figures dont lie. the sure fire way to keep a unionist coalition out of power in holyrood is to have a group/party of indy supporters that the movement actually trusts (ie not greens, rise etc) to vote for.
if Yes were to form a party with candidates like stu campbell, wgd, terry kelly etc and stand on the list, and convince people to vote for them, we would ensure a pro indy majority in holyrood for the forseeable future.
on these figures, if we dont, the unionist will form a grand coalition and the dream will be dead in the water.
UKIP +1 ???? WHO the F*** in Scotland votes UKIP?
I concede there must be a few racist xenophobic bampots, but surely not enough to warrant them getting an MSP in Holyrood.
Excellent figures.
If – or is that WHEN? – the SNP don’t deliver on the independence mandate in this parliamentary term, they lose it.
Only mugs would keep voting for an SNP that committed such a surrender.
You know the type: “I’ll vote SNP forever”: the SNP equivalent of the “I’m Labour for life” idiots.
The idiots that believe loyalty to a political party is a greater quality than common sense.
I won’t be voting for any party whose goal is to administer British Empire Colonialism for the English Crown.
If the SNP move for INDEPENDENCE / Political Sovereignty for Scotland I’ll vote for them. If they don’t, I won’t.
for folks complaining about the system, i get it.
unfortunately, to change it, we would need to put it in a manifesto and then win power in the next holyrood election before we could change it.
like it or not, this system is the one under which we will fight the next holyrood election.
try fighting the battles that are in front of you, not the battles you would like to fight.
this poll says the unionists will win the next holyrood election and most likely form a grand coalition.
then this roller coaster will end.
Hamish 100, Derick fae Yell,
I agree about EFTA. I think it should be the focus for the first step, not least because it gives more flexibility in addressing potential post-brexit border and trade issues with England/Wales which will be used by unionists to scare voters.
A subsequent referendum could address EU membership when the dust settles.
It depends on turnout. Not known. Otherwise it is meaningless comparison of % (previous) percentages. Turnout of electorate influences the result. Turnout has to be also considered when comparing %. Otherwise it is a pointless exercise. No proven. Not known. Future turnout is not known. Even by polling.
Snakes and ladders and we are all familiar with the snakes.
Ot The GMB union complaining that renewable contracts going abroad to the UAE because they have an oil fund to subsidise companies. What pure hypocrisy when they fought with the labour opposing the same for Scotland. Maybe they can build the 15 frigates instead?….oops
This makes for depressing reading. Looks like its time to go all in.
Time to roll the sleaves up and wade in.
Nicola Call it. Its aye or die.
And Craig at 1.09am “wishing I was never born Scottish ”
Man the fuck up and do something. Its all or nothing.
Nothing will end. The world will suffer a catastrophe and deminish. Hardly likely. The campaign will just get stronger. It has not diminushed since 1707, 1900, 1928 and just gets stronger. Despite many set backs. It will just get stronger. It is the strongest it has ever been and closer. Until it is won. Within grasp now with a concentrated effort. Defeatist talk is irrelevant to actions and not appropriate in any case.
Talking about North Britain, this week’s Economist magazine has an article about the history of the periodic table. In it, an English scientist is described as “English” but a Scots scientist is called “a Briton”. The Andy Murray effect is alive and well.
So on the ballot paper.
Independence in EFTA
Brexit
Companies will move to Scotland to take advantage
GMB union supports Trident and funds illegal wars. Wants to blow the world to bits. Hypocrites.
The swing from a Labour to UKIP I find puzzling. It does suggest that Labour voters are Labour by tradition and have no idea what labour is supposed to stand for. They now find Labour a limp horse and by tradition can’t vote tory but UKIP gives them a new unionist avenue having not a clue on there ideology. They’ll sell there sole for tradition.
In South Lanarkshire, both votes SNP was a total waste yet that was the mantra from the party, it was even on the cover of their Independence magazine. If that ignorance is coming from the top…
I am amazed after 11 years in government that the SNP maintain their position.
The daily barrage of anti SNP lies and misinformation in the press clearly displayed in every supermarket is horrendous. As I say I am amazed.
Word of mouth gently questioning the lies must be working. Scotland has so much to offer the world I am tempted to support joining the big wide world by voting for Independence.
Colin Alexander at 8.30 am
If you really support independence, your position is completely illogical. You clearly do not understand the electoral system.
Has it ever occurred to you why the SNP are the dominant party in Scotland? It is because the pro-independence vote is largely unfragmented. Apart from a few fringe groups, there are the Greens and the SNP. The Greens do damage to the SNP, but most independence supporters vote SNP and as a result they are the largest party in parliament.
Compare and contrast with the unionists – their vote is split between the Tories, Labour, Lib-Dems and UKIP. Their vote is completely fragmented and long may that continue.
The message is clear – if you support independence, vote SNP. You don’t have to agree with everything they do, but they are the only chance of success.
Ken500 says:
It depends on turnout. Not known
————-
this is true, but voting for a yes party on the list would revove the very real possibility of a unionist coalition
lets face it ken, the risk of losing one snp msp, marie todd, but gaining rev stu campbell, wgd, terry kelly, peter bell etc, far out weigh the risks. no?
I get it that you dont like the greens, frankly, i dont blame you, they havent endeared themselves to the yes movement.
but this isnt about them, it is about keeping the unionists out and the indy dream alive by offering the indy movement an option they dont have at the moment, an option that even people like you can trust by putting forward candidates that you already trust to do the right thing by us.
TD says:
Compare and contrast with the unionists – their vote is split between the Tories, Labour, Lib-Dems and UKIP. Their vote is completely fragmented and long may that continue
———-
yes they are, but the nature of the electoral system ensures that they hoover up the vast majority of list msp places.
they may be divided, but if they collectively win a majority at the next holyrood election, as per this poll, they will put aside their differences and for a grand coalition government to keep the snp out of power.
this is a fact, they already do this a council level.
Holyrood voting intentions (constituency):
SNP 41%
Grn 3%
Holyrood voting intentions (region):
SNP 36%
Grn 6%
Voters don’t seem to understand that the list vote is the one which decides the make up of the parliament – it’s the PR part. The fact it even gets referred to as the ‘second vote’ is misleading.
There’s a 2% difference in the total Indy vote between constituency and list. This must imply people vote SNP or Green in Constituency but the chose a BritNat party from the list!!
This can only because they think it’s 1st choice, 2nd choice.
Not surprisingly there were a number of far more interesting questions in Stu’s poll. I look forward to reading his analysis, dripped out over the next few days, on those other matters.
SC at 9.06 am
I think you reinforce my point – if you want independence, vote SNP. When we are independent, by all means indulge yourself in voting for whatever obscure peripheral group takes your fancy. But until then…
TD says:
The message is clear – if you support independence, vote SNP. You don’t have to agree with everything they do, but they are the only chance of success.
———–
it obviously isnt clear to you, in a westminster fptp election, vote snp, no question……… except this article isnt a poll about westminster voting intentions, it is about holyrood voting intentions,
(hint, holyrood is in edinburgh, westminster is in london and have different electoral systems) 🙂
Thing is in the past the Green vote, in the regional lists at least, tends to rise on the actual day. IIRC they were not projected to get more than 6 last time.
So just remember folks, it will take far, far fewer votes to elect a Green on the list than an SNP bod in most regions where they will take the majority or all of the constituencies.
TD says:
I think you reinforce my point – if you want independence, vote SNP. When we are independent, by all means indulge yourself in voting for whatever obscure peripheral group takes your fancy. But until then…
————
i suggested you vote for candidates like stu campbell, wgd, terry kelly, peter bell etc on the list vote in a holyrood election and you think these people are obscure and peripheral………..?
question…….. who the fuck is TD when he/she is at home?
The turnout is not known. All statistically analyse is pointless, fruitless and irrelevant.
SNP/SNP all the way is the best bet. (Simple)It has been done before and can be again. Best advice is still the same, Convince one other person. It is in the bag. The best way to keep unionists out is a good turnout and SNP/SNP. All the way. It has been done before and can be again.
SC at 9.12
So is it your position that independence supporters should NOT vote SNP in the Holyrood elections? If so, which party do you believe could deliver independence?
The Scots Independent had an article some months ago illustrating how Nationalists could set up a separate party to maximise the seats available from the List vote.I cannot remember the finer details.
Muscleguy
I already tried to get people to vote tactically for the greens on the list in the last election………. it failed. yes voters in general dont trust them nor will they vote for them in any great numbers. indeed, this poll shows people are even less likely to vote for them on the list than last time.
the point you make about the numbers is correct, but you need to offer the yes movement voters candidates that they trust. and that aint the greens.
A YES political party, standing on the list only, makes so much sense. I for one would be voting SNP/YES to ensure a pro-indy majority at Holyrood.
The thought of Lesley Riddoch, Paul Kavanagh and Gordon Ross taking list seats away from the likes of Murdo Fraser and James Kelly is mouth watering.
I’m salivating already!
The Greens just centre on certain seats they believe they can win. So do the Tories. Target them. They might not be so successful in these times. In light of the current Westminster shambles. Destroying their own Parties. The SNP might be perceived as a more secure vote. Standing up for Scotland a more logical option. Considering the chaos. A totally different circumstance in two years time in any case.
Huh! Quite the numbers and pretty encouraging, rather than dispiriting.
Any political party that’s been in power for near on twelve years and still enjoys those kinds of numbers, must be doing something right. Any political party and the wider movement that supports them, (please take note SNP members), that has been on the receiving end of appalling treatment by the UK’s massed media and their chaintuggers in the corridors of powwwerrrr, and still hasn’t fallen apart? That’s got to be giving said propagandists some sleepless nights about now.
That machinery of government and media have been pounding away day and night at both the SNP Scottish government and the wider YES movement from the moment they became a serious threat to their cosy wee hegemony. Yet spookily, and without access to a sympathetic mainstream media or truly democratic state system? You couldn’t put a fag paper between YES and NO.
That really should tell folks something.
And not just that with a truly independent and democratically representative media, we’d have been fully self governing long since.
TD says:
So is it your position that independence supporters should NOT vote SNP in the Holyrood elections? If so, which party do you believe could deliver independence?
————–
geezo,
Ricky Gervais
?when you are dead, you do not know you are dead. It’s only painful & difficult for others. The same applies when you are stupid.
————————-
you vote snp at westminster elections. you vote snp on the constituency paper at holyrood elections
however, you vote for the YES party on the list paper (2nd paper) in holyrood elections,. why? because in 2016, 850k snp list votes in 7 of the 8 regions only elected one snp msp. marie todd.
ill repeat that for the hard of thinking.
in 7 of the 8 regions in scotland in the last holyrood election, 850k snp list votes managed to elect only ONE, 1, UNO, snp msp.
if we do this again. it is over, or as stu’s article title points out,
back-down-the-slide
go figure
Splitting the vote to more Independents could be just counter productive and lose more seats. Cause more disruption. Make it difficult to find agreement. Possibly too late in any case. Organisationky. It would just split the Independence vote and could let more Unionists in. There is not enough time and circumstance for that kind of luxury or derision of decision at this time, In a tight margin. Not a great strategy.
There would be two Independence supporting candidates. The vote.coukd/would be split and more unionist could/would come forward/through.
The turnout by comparison is not being considered so it is irrelevant.
Figures
I understood SNP gradualist approach, it was building support, but the point of all that was in getting to a stage of support it could make big changes to the constitution of Scotland.
It got tho the stage of huge political support, 120,000 members, 56MPs in Westminster and virtual majority in Holyrood in terms of numbers and truly elected MSPs, increased numbers of Councillors, Holyrood mandates for Ind Ref.
Then stopped.
Even with the majority for Ind not in its favour it was so close, with the ‘young’ and active supporting Ind. It was the time to muster up all the weaponry of testing arguments. Pushing the advantage.
But somewhere there were those possibly just watching the polls and making decisions based on that and not on the reality of the great hand it had in front of it.
The Westminster group may have been overly influenced by MPs such as Stewart Hosie, who with previously 6 MPs, naturally had to be cautious and play the Westminster games.
These are just my thoughts after campaigning for 7 years. I understand many have been in the party and campaigning for 40-50 years, but I go back to where I started, that gradualism was to get to the point the party was in, in around 2016, then get galloping.
I’m afraid I don’t recognise these polling figures at all and as far as I can see they overestimate the support of both Labour and Tory – Tory especially.
To show Tory at “no change” watching the pantomime at Westminster is utter bollocks.
Ditto SNP support.
I would like to know what was the actual demographic of those polled.
It would just split the Independence vote and could let more Unionists in
———
you mean the snp, in 7 of the 8 regions might only get half an msp elected?
how could we lose more seats when we only won one list seat out of 49?
if we split the independence vote ON THE LIST, 50/50 we might lose one snp msp but win 11 yes msps. thus ensuring an indy majority and keeping out the unionists.
unless like td, you dont trust stu campbell, wgd etc and think they are obscure and peripheral?
If you calculate the mean of percentages between leave and remain you get: leave 47.025%, remain 52.975%.
Remain won, cancel Brexit, lol.
On the upside if we had first past the post voting the SNP would have all but twenty or so of the MSP seats.
After 11 years in Government and half way through a term, I’m sure any political party would be salivating at still getting 41% of the vote. I have no doubt that come the next election that another 3 or 4 percentage points will be added to that.
The 27% for the Tory’s is peak hard core Unionism, some of those voters are probably not true Tory’s, but no surrender/anti EU types.
The target for the SNP is the 19% Labour votes.
While Ian Blackford and our MPs are doing well at Westminster holding both Labour and the Tories to account.
Its a concern that we could see the SNP lose having an independence supporting majority at Holyrood and have the Britnats back in control.
Which makes the complacency and the anodyne responses from HQ here in Scotland to British Nationalist attacks on rail, NHS, Welfare etc even more of a concern to me.
They should have learned the lesson of the 2017 general election and its about time they were getting stuck into the Britnats as our MPs are doing.
So what’s the hell’s happened to Keith Brown’s much vaunted rebuttal unit?
Why is this it surprise that Indy control of Holyrood is under threat – it’s what the shitty D’Hondt system was specifically put in place to achieve when Unionists put together devolution to create a glorified county council which the SNP could never get absolute control of. That they did so briefly was an electoral fluke akin to the 2015 return of 56 of Scotland’s 59 MPs. Which is why siren voices like Andrew Wilson saying we have the time to play a long game on Indy are a dangerous menace to Scotland’s prospects of ever achieving that – we will never have a better opportunity that right now, on the cusp and under the threat of The Greater England Project’s Brexit.
Those figures are just a reminder that Wings is not the real world.
It is a thorn in the side of the britnat world
It is a seriously good source of information and crack about the issue of independence and the surrounding political debate.
But out there in the real Scotland a lot of people will have no problem voting for the britnat parties.
And that includes the devil’s own conservative one.
Sad, but true.
Brian Powell says:
7 March, 2019 at 9:39 am
On the upside if we had first past the post voting the SNP would have all but twenty or so of the MSP seats.
———–
if my aunty had bollox she would be my uncle
the point about this article is, on present polling…… the indy campaign is in danger, thats why it is called back-down-the-slide
i cant see any up side
as i said before, fight the battles that are in front of you, not those you would like to fight
Kezia Dugdale told people to vote Tory to oust the SNP but that’s different because Labour and Tory are the same party and the Lib Dems are for hire but nobody in the SNP has ever asked me to vote for anybody else, they always say SNP x 2 so that’s what I do because I reckon they know a little more than me about voting numbers and how they want them to go
Each time a poll comes up we always have folk telling us not to vote for the party we vote for because we’re wrong and should vote for another party to achieve something better because in certain areas something different might happen, if that’s the case why don’t the SNP ask us to do that if they thought it would help them win
Orlando Quarmby says:
7 March, 2019 at 9:43 am
Why is this it surprise that Indy control of Holyrood is under threat – it’s what the shitty D’Hondt system was specifically put in place to achieve
———
the same rules apply to everyone, the unionists use them to their advantage…….
the point i am making is …….so can we
SC at 9.15 am
“…who the fuck is TD when he/she is at home?”
Two points:
1. Who is Schrodinger’s Cat?
2. As an occasional commenter on this site for several years, I am disappointed that I should attract abuse, particularly when as far as I can tell, my only “sin” is to have argued that those who support independence should vote for the only party that has a realistic chance of achieving independence.
@yesindyref2 5:47am
Did you catch my breakdown yesterday?
https://wingsoverscotland.com/a-different-country/#comment-2439327
SNP support constituted circa 54% of the 2014 45% YES vote, the rest came from “Other Parties” and circa 10% from non-voters. The ability to win a referendum is in the hands of non-voters – the ability to deliver one lies with the SNP. They already hold a mandate to do so prior to Holyrood elections.
If the poll is to be taken at face value, then it suggests a referendum is required and independence won’t be achieved via the electoral process (majorities at Holyrood/WM)
Also it reinforces that Scots are no richt. Independence voters (among electorate who vote) actually outnumber NO voters, but almost half of them will vote for “Other parties” which seek to deny them that independence. Some 10% of voters (as at 2014) want independence, but don’t vote in elections, thereby assisting those seeking to deny them independence.
No wonder people despair. Yet, as I say if (a huge if) the poll is to be taken at face value, then the question of ‘Referendum’ or ‘Indy ticket election’ is settled. It has to be a referendum. “If” the poll reflects reality, it will still have little outcome on a referendum result, where a probable 30% of the ballot will be from non-voters.
Dr Jim
the snp say vote snp 1 and 2 because they would fall foul of the electoral commision if they didnt
however, regardless of what the tory, lab and lib parties say, ie vote for them only, their supporters are capable of looking at the numbers and chosing the unionist party most likely to defeat the snp in their constituency. the d’hondt system means regardless of which unionist party they vote for on the list, they are ensured an over whelming majority of unionist list msps
if the unionists can and do tactical voting, why cant we?
Dearie me, still no change to the backstop.
Joanna Cherry:-
https://mobile.twitter.com/joannaccherry/status/1103566252012900352?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet
TD
it wasnt me who suggested that the rev stu campbell and wgd were obscure and peripheral, it was you
asking who the fuck you are seems quite a tame response
as for me……… im a nobody, but then again, i didnt diss the author of this blog, you did
Just wondering what it would be like if we had another pro-Independence party. Would they run down the SNP, to get the votes, just as Rise did?
EU giving Big T 48 hours to come up with a new backstop plan. Can she do it, lol?
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-latest-irish-backstop-border-theresa-may-eu-a8811641.html
yesindyref2 says:
Indeed. An important element which often gets forgotten. From what I’ve seen it’s near 10%.
If they turn out to vote YES when asked to, that is fantastic.
However, the fortunes of the SNP electorally and the opportunity to get to vote for independence and 100% connected. Many Scots are fluid in their party voting. Initially there was tendency for many to vote Labour at WM and SNP at Holyrood.
I am totally convinced that the SNP do better when their campaigning gives Indy a higher profile. This is probably a mix of attracting party-floating YES voters, plus, getting normally apathetic voters to come out and vote.
IMO high profile Indy campaigning by the SNP rallies YES supporters to vote for them. Seems obvious?
Conversely the Tories use the same tactics reversed to attract hard core NO voters. Successfully!
I will be highly disappointed if we reach Holyrood2021 without having achieved Indy! If we do have to fight it, it MUST be fought with Indy at the forefront.
td
my only “sin” is to have argued that those who support independence should vote for the only party that has a realistic chance of achieving independence.
——————
except that the majority for indy/snp is under threat, as per the poll in this article.
the snp IS the only party capable of delivering independence for scotland, that should be obvious to all. the point being made is that the d’hondt system at holyrood, especially under the present conditions, favours the unionist parties.
i repeat
in 7 of the 8 regions of scotland in 2016, 850k snp list votes managed to elect one snp msp. ONE.
i am not saying we should vote for unknowns, peripheral and obscure candidates, i am merely pointing out that if we vote tactically on the list vote (not the constituency vote) then we can keep this show on the road. if we dont. then the dream will die
“Why would be there be an extension without a reason?” Loiseau said.
Good point. 🙄
https://archive.is/UX7zO#selection-1745.0-1745.68
Folks, polls are dubious indeed – often used by the establishment to fool enough people before they fix a ref or GE result (and they can if the margins are tight).And support for indy v the precious union is pretty tight at the moment, I’m sure all will agree. So ye’ve been warned. 🙂
However, what this opinion poll result does remind us is that if the SG wants another ref, it must use it’s triple mandate before it expires. Once the BritNats muster their forces (and they will), there is most definitely no guarantee that the SG wills secure another mandate any time soon.
Pretty obvious, but wake up calls are useful. 🙂
Petra.
I suspect the question is
If we are still around to have another Holyrood election
Can a party stand in the election with only list mp candidates?
Cos if the answer is yes
And a second independence party does it
The Britnats will do the same.
Either together or as a bunch of mini-me parties
Petra says:
Does Big T actually want to ?
She seems to have spent a few weeks saying “we want backstop limitations” to which the EU consistently reply “nae chance”.
I smell keech!
SC at 10.00 am
Just for the record, I did not “diss” the author of this blog. I took issue with a commenter who said he would not vote SNP unless they pursued independence his way. He made no distinction between constituency and list votes and neither did I – you introduced that issue. In any event what does who I am have to do with anything?
It is very sad that someone who makes a really simple and rather uncontroversial point on this site runs the risk of being subjected to bullying behaviour by the likes of yourself. The independent Scotland I want to see will be inclusive and tolerant. What sort of Scotland do you want?
SandyW at 8:08 am
“Without foreign funding from their parent parties (and possibly ‘other’ sources), the Lib Dem and Labour branch offices would not even be able to contest all the seats in the Scottish Parliament.”
Excellent point Sandy, often overlooked.
You could add the Ruthie not truthie party. Addicted to dark £££.
As with any competition,e.g. war, commerce, sport, those with the most resources almost always win.
Fortunately for us, ‘Yes’ has human capital to spare over the Dark sides forces.
Petra says:
7 March, 2019 at 10:00 am
Just wondering what it would be like if we had another pro-Independence party. Would they run down the SNP, to get the votes, just as Rise did?
—————
NO
a yes party wouldnt stand candidates in constituencies like the greens did in mundells seat and ruth davidsons seat, ensuring that the snp lost. that is why they were and continued to be rejected by the vast majority of indy supporters. they dont trust them precisely because of this. ask dr morag kerr.
nor would a yes party stand candidates on the list in the south of scotland.
but we are not talking about the nature of the candidates, we are talking about the electoral system, although, candidates like wgd, peter bell etc, are I believe, above reproach in the eyes of the indy movement, and would not “run down the snp vote”
as you correctly claim is and remains the goal of rise and the greens.
a yes party with candidates like wgd etc who could verywell replace marie todd, would not weaken the snp or the indy movement, they would strengthen it.
more importantly, if we dont do this, there is a very good chance that a grand unionist coalition will win power at holyrood and condemn the entire indy movement to oblivion for decades.
I have not long since returned home permanently after years of working everywhere in O&G trying to make a crust. I was fully expecting to find an engaged, energetic and opinionated political atmosphere judging from years of reading wings and the like.
However so far (after three months) I am surprised to witness something between political exhaustion and ambivalence in the people I meet. Quite a few, tradesmen (sorry tradespeople, to be politically correct) mostly say “I don’t get involved in politics” presumably because they have a job to do and don’t have time to waste, others seem vague on the facts as reported here and in the likes of The National. Of course there are the die hards, but on average people seem fuzzy.
I have three sons, one in school, one in Uni and one on benefits. The first is very pro independence but dislikes or distrusts Sturgeon, the second is completely disinterested, the third pro independence but afraid to become vocal in case it affects his claims (not sure why), but the three might be indicitave of the general population.
It seems to me we need to somehow engage people without activating that glazed look in their eyes. I still believe most are on balance pro independence at heart but measuring the yes movement by talking to ourselves and self congratulatingly slapping ourselves on the back is allowing the Ukip’s of this world the chance to score points, which is really scary.
But then again it’s only been three months I’m back. I’m doing my bit, leaving copies of The National in the local pub and chatting without initiating a gag reflex, but I feel we need some inventive solutions.
The dream will never die.
An unscientific poll (me and Spud the dug) of commenters on the Wings over Scotland blog,
50% think Nicola is a god,
50% think Nicola is a devil.
100% want Scotland and England to be liberated from the anachronism that is The Treaty of Union.
dear TD
did i tell you ……….
What sort of Scotland do you want?
an independent one
I am surprised to witness something between political exhaustion””””
yup
Could it be the influx of daily mail retirees who vote tory and lib dems ,along with the orange bigot brigade who will deny Scotland her independence. If indy doesnt come soon i fear the worst.
@ SC – I can see the logic of a YES party standing in the next Holyrood election for the Regional vote. There are YES hubs all over Scotland who could support a candidate. There are high profile candidates who would attract a vote.
Lesley Riddoch, Paul Kavanagh, Angus Robertson, Stu Campbell if he’s interested, Elaine C Smith, Peter Bell, Janey Godley (who could voice over several candidates) Alan Bissett?, Michael McCann? and many others.
The organisational structure is there. the votes are there. As you say, with only one SNP candidate from 850,000 votes there is a logic to giving voters an alternative YES candidate. As Stu has already pointed out.
I understand gaming a system where you estimate a thing might happen but that’s just it, an estimate of a situation where previously a thing happened but more and more elections have become polarised between Unionist whoever and SNP, the relevance of the Greens very soon looks like vanishing because all sides are tending to dislike them now because of their opinions on finance OBFA car park tax, if the Green supporters who soley want Independence but previously haven’t liked the SNP for whatever reasons switch they’ll switch to SNP and not Unionist so in future elections (if there are any) it could be a straight Independence Unionist fight and if your imperetive is Independence then an SNP vote might be the only option
The Greens as a party (excepting Andy Weightman as a worker) have not covered themselves in glory, in fact the contrary has happened
I wouldn’t pretend to be any expert in polling stats but I see the Green vote as a huge risk now if it’s Independence you want, because every time Patrick Harvie gets a chance he does the Independence movement no good whatsoever by his intransigent positioning on finance that ends up with the SNP being blamed for co-operating with him to get legislation passed which the Unionist parties immediately jump on but don’t obviously blame the Greens for, they use Green actions against the SNP, so for me voting Green is as bad as voting Unionist
Sorry Green voting peoples but I want Independence and as they say Independence transcends all until after we get it then it’s policy and party selection box time
That’s voting though, you make your pick and hope you did the best you could for what you want
I would have added Alex Salmond to that list. Who knows when the legal shenanigans will end and how.
mike cassidy
the pensioners party, independents like margo macdonald etc.
if the unionist want to stand unionist party candidates on the list……so what
i’ll remind you, in 7 of the 8 regions, 49 list seats, the snp won one. ONE, UNO, UN, EIN etc. the unionist won the vast majority,
question, how will standing unionist party candidates on the list disadvantage us???? do tell?
alternatively it will dilute the unionist vote between even more parties and increase the number of yes candidate elected. i sincerely hope they do stand unionist party candidates on the list
Capella
re alex, that is exactly my point, standing yes candidate might risk replacing potential snp list msps, but if it is people like alex…… what is not to like?
Heresay reports are not relevant. Without back up facts. Just a blinkered personal experience. A slight interest, Antedotatal. Adjective. Look it up. Unscientific.
Not permissible by law.
Dr Jim
except no one is asking indy supporters to vote green on the list, (we tried that and it didnt work, the indy supporters dont trust them, except andy wightman as you pointed out) the proposition before you is as capella pointed out, would you vote for a yes party on the list if it was alex salmond leading them?
Ken500
alternatively
wibble wibble wibble
this is the sound one makes when losing an argument
The trouble here is most people are not interested in politics. I try telling my family what is coming down the line and they are not interested, they tell me its just politicians and the same old story. Brexit will have to happen to waken these people up huge rise in prices in the shops will jar them a bit,
but empty shelves will jar them even further . I do not know how the BBC is going to counter this other than blame the EU.
@Sharny Dubs: thank you for sharing your experience. Two out of three sons pro-indy is encouraging! And thank you for the work you are doing to inform the wider public.
I still feel that we only needed to bring over 190,000 – it can’t be that hard, surely? Especially with Westminster being so helpful.
[A great pity that AS seems to be out of the game, tho’.]
I did write to the FM about using our electoral powers to outlaw foreign parties, and their funding. The reply wasn’t clear but I think said nothing can be done until Scotland is out of the Union.
It will still more likely to lose more candidates. Split the vote. The unionists came together to target seats illegally. With illegal funding. Dark money. Breaking electoral rules. That is one reason why Alex lost the seat. Plus poor weather lower turnout. It was raining heavily. Antedotatal but interesting.
Exactly,
Kettle black again
@Dave McEwan Hill says:
7 March, 2019 at 9:35 am
I’m afraid I don’t recognise these polling figures at all and as far as I can see they overestimate the support of both Labour and Tory – Tory especially.
You assume that everyone who votes, makes an effort to be well informed – not true. You also ignore the fact that many people vote out of emotion and this overcomes evidence (where they bother to see evidence). The whole Brexit deal is a result of many people voting on emotion (and prejudice) instead of evidence (mind you they had years of anti-Europe propaganda shoved down their throats).
More recently, in Scotland, both Labour and Tory deliberately appealed to the extreme unionist (and Orange) factions – but unfortunately for Labour, the Tories are the more natural home for this vote. Something they didn’t calculate as they could only think in terms of beating the SNP.
It’s difficult to defeat this because not only is it something that comes out of emotion and prejudice, but also because these feelings are not challenged by the MSM – often supported by it.
Capella says:
The organisational structure is there. the votes are there. As you say, with only one SNP candidate from 850,000 votes there is a logic to giving voters an alternative YES candidate. As Stu has already pointed out.
——-
stu was against tactical voting in 2016, mainly because the proposition at that time was greens or rise. with hindsight, he was probably right, as the indy movement simply wont support them.
however, tactical voting on the list will work, (it cant fail, if the risk is only losing one list msp) as long as the candidates are people the indy movement trusted, like eg alex or the rev or many others suggested on this thread by others
the alternative is oblivion
schrodinger’s cat 10.38
Don’t get me wrong.
The dhondt system is a game.
I’m all for gaming the system.
Especially if we go into that election still part of the UK.
Hell, I’ll be happy to stand as one of the candidates!!!!
The last thing Alex Salmond would want, ever, after a lifetime of Indy campaigning would be to split the vote and lose candidates. In a tight margin. That is a guarantee. He Is too much of an excellent political strategist. It is not a luxury that cannot be afforded.
He is too much of an excellent political strategist. The cause is more important than one person (or personal interests) Too important. That is guaranteed. Neither would anyone else who supports Independence. There are plenty, plenty of important Indy supporting roles for all these (other) people.
Ken500 says:
7 March, 2019 at 10:47 am
It will still more likely to lose more candidates. Split the vote.
—————
so we risk losing one snp list msp out of a potential 49?
grow a pair ken
mike cassidy
thats ma boy 🙂
@ Ken500 – a YES candidate would only be standing in the Regional lists. The Constituency vote, which is first past the post, would still field the SNP candidates.
In fact the YES candidates could stand in selected seats where they have the greatest chance of winning and unseating a unionist.
There are 49 Regional votes. What about targeting 20 of them?
The YES hubs could produce the posters and leaflets and deliver them at the same time as the SNP leaflets go out.
Is there a law against MPs standing for Holyrood on the list? What about Tommy Sheppard, Mhairi Black, Angus McNeil, Phillipa Whitford and Joanna Cherry etc standing as YES candidates?
Ken500 says:
7 March, 2019 at 10:56 am
The last thing Alex Salmond would want, ever, after a lifetime of Indy campaigning would be to split the vote and lose candidates.
———
no, the last thing alex would want was to see a grand unionist coalition kill his dream stone dead.
read the article, that is what stu is telling us will happen on present polling if we dont do something
Just to add to my last post. Emotion of itself is not a bad thing, so long as you recognise it in yourself and can put it aside somewhat and examine evidence. Some folk with a strong emotional attachment to Scotland and Scottish culture in the past believed despite that, being part of the union was for the better – believing for instance that a UK Labour government would be better for everybody. That was reasonable. However, conditions change and many folk who believed that now see the evidence as supporting that the UK no longer works for anyone outside of the south and that an independent Scottish government would be best for everyone in Scotland and this actually fits in with their motions about their country. Some would have preferred once to go for federation but they see this as impossible to achieve.
So emotions are OK but too many people let them blind themselves to evidence. There’s also the syndrome where people commit themselves to something and when the evidence appears to show this is a mistake, they ignore it because they feel they would seem to be fools (this isn’t something they calculate, they just subconsciously feel this) if they backed down from that commitment. It’s how con men often manage to con people more than once. (Come to think of it that’s how many politicians get away with it).
btw ken it is singular, candidate, not candidates
i repeat, 850 thousand snp list votes elected one, 1 uno, ein snp list msp
imagine you have a hole on your sock and your big toe sticks out, count it, multiply that number by 1 and you have exactly the number of snp list msps elected by 850k snp voters on the list in 7 of the 8 regions in 2016
ps, dont try and split yer toe in half, very painful etc etc
Because of what the British and their media have done to Alex Salmond even if he’s proven pure as the driven snow he wouldn’t and couldn’t stand again until after Independence
We live in a country where if people see mud it doesn’t come off for a long time (Michelle Thompson)
As for the Rev Stu standing I personally feel WOS and the Rev is a fantastic medium for Scottish Independence but the British media would do the same to him (in other ways) that they’ve done to Alex and Michelle and he would have evil pointy horns and Vladimir Putin communist bears surrounding his name and actually end up doing more damage than good and I wouldn’t wish it on him, we love the guy, the moderates won’t because they’re afraid of the mud that isn’t there, but the media will tell them he *Baths* in it
They’ll paint him as a George Galloway style extremist to be very afraid of and that’d make him the campaign and not Independence
Including difference FPTP GE. Gordon
Not Holyrood. D’Hond’t.
The SNP achieved a majority at Holyrood before and can do again. The proof of the pudding.
This poll is just one poll and has a margin of error of about 3%, let us see the trend over the next few months. After near 12 years in Government the SNP are polling well.
Things can change quickly during the official campaign period. If you can cast your mind back to March 2011. A poll in the Herald on 2nd March 2011 had Labour on 44% to the SNP on 29%. That was flipped by polling day. Seem a lot that voted Labour in the past now support Tory, not much difference in my opinion. I am quite comforted by this poll.
Rev Stu does more important work with the website, for the Indy cause, than anything. More than any politician. Absolute brilliant. Genius. Anything can happen in the future. Thanks a £Billion.
Alex Salmond does great work in the media. Raising the Indy cause, worldwide. On speed dial to the leaders and other people of importance and relevance. A huge following and influence.
Capella
no, snp mps would need to leave the snp before standing as yes party candidates otherwise they would fall foul of the electoral commision and the snp party rules
remember, while the yes party campaigned for peoples list vote, the snp would most likely need to continue with an snp 1 and 2 campaign so as not to fall foul of the snp.
as for individual candidates on the list, they are put forward on a numbered list, 1, 2, 3, 4 etc, people vote for for the party, not the candidate.
thats why we cant get rid of murdo fraser etc
Marcia
in 2016, snp got 46.5% of the constituency vote
this poll shows 41%
that is below the margin of error
Dr Jim
yes, the media will paint the rev in a bad light.
so what?
the list vote is a pr vote, if only half those who voted for the snp on the list in 2016 voted for a yes party with alex and the rev in it we would
1. deny the unionists a majority
2, very likely replace the tories as the official opposition
3. ensure indy stays on the table
In England trust in politicians is at an all time low, even lower than *journalists* and that’s going some
But it’s created a huge problem for Joe and Joan English person because the estimation is so low of their own politicians they mistrust what they see as foreign politicians even more because as we know the *British* have always employed the tactic of *don’t trust foreigners* and that’s why we’re in this Brexit mess now because England sees everybody else as worse than what they’ve got already
So although when we watch English telly we think these people are as thick as mince, they’re not, it’s just that nobody has ever told them the truth about anything for lifetimes so they now don’t believe anything anybody says except for one thing
Everybody lies but people who are not their people lie more
Trump won America on that
4. ensure nicola and the snp remain in charge of holyrood
schrodingers cat
Things can change quickly – 29% in March 2011 became 45% in May 2011. We are not in a Holyrood campaign period.
@schrodingers cat
I see exactly what you’re saying and yes I agree with much of it but we’re dealing with people and people are very unpredictable and they tend not to like new until it’s been around for a while to give themselves time to look at it
So it’s a question of the level of risk, do you take a risk and who knows or do you stick on 19 and hope the opposition don’t have two face cards
People don’t change quickly, they don’t like it, look at how long it’s taken the SNP to be the *new* party, only 80 years
I wouldn’t get too carried away about the opinion polls. 22 days from now, there’s a weighty wee matter of whether we get Brexited or not.
On our current trajectory, I rather suspect Opinion Polls leading up to and on 29th March might be markedly different from polls conducted on or after the 30th.
I always read WOS but I stopped commenting a while ago. Your honesty- indy support still around 50:50, no projected indy majority at next Scottish GE, small UKIP increase, makes grim reading. I’m wondering if Labour are doing their job quite well as they seem to be giving way to the Tories now. We have now hit the wall of ingrained unionism. the thicker, less imaginative, proudly under informed folk that cannot be won over by information that isn’t in the Daily Mail or the Sun. What real pain do they need to feel?
My only saving grace is that I am a senior adult and I’ve never been asked to participate in one of the opinion polls.
The only thing that prevents Scottish independence is a corrupt mainstream media that is controlled beyond the borders of Scotland. This corrupt media has one aim – keep Scotland in its box so that Westminster/Establishment can continue to loot its resources. The Britnats do not play fair. They make the rules as they go along to suit themselves e.g. The infamous vow.
A bit of reality is that Cameron never won greater than 50% in 2015 but he had the power to call the EU ref. Think about everything Westminster has done and will do and ask yourself when did the UK governing party ever win >50% of the UK vote never mind the vote in Scotland.
The voting system in the Scottish parliament is designed to prevent an SNP majority. Just another example of Britnat gerrymandering. If FTP is good enough for the UK parliament why is it not good enough for the Scottish parliament. Or if the voting system (D’Hondt) of the Scottish parliament is good enough for Scotland then why is it not good enough for the UK parliament.
If Scotland is not independent by the next general election then the SNP should put a clear and unambiguous mandate for independence in its GE manifesto that a majority of SNP MPs elected in Scotland is a mandate from the Scottish people for independence.
What is happening to contributors to this blog? Up until these poll results were published there was much confidence being expressed – the unionists are on the run, they are running scared, they know they are losing and other comments of that ilk. Now, one poll has created, almost an air of depression. How many of you in the past have written about not trusting the polls or at least not trusting them fully? Given that the SNP have been in power for 12 years these results are staggeringly good – they may not indicate a Yes win in an Indy ref, but they are excellent results and haven’t we all expected that indy polling will only rise when the campaign starts? I read this blog every day and try to read everything and other Indy blogs. I’m getting really fed up with the amount of animosity creeping into the discussions here. This is about opinion – not expressing your anger with others, sense of superiority or political omniscience. Some on here behave in exactly the way we accuse unionists of behaving to us, as if in some way it’s Ok for us to do it – well it’s not and they are watching. A number of the contributors to this blog are absolutely brilliant and a lot can be learned from them but if you don’t agree with what they write there is no need to abuse them. Disagree politely please! I’m no historian, but what i’ve read of Scottish history has told me that our biggest enemy is just what is happening here – being divided and allowing ourselves to be divided! I’m a fairly new SNP member but from my limited political nous and reasoning only the SNP can get us to a referendum and hopefully, ultimately our rightful independence and freedom to shape our own country’s future. Those who offend sometimes, and are sometimes offended themselves, I ask you to think about what you want from this blog and for our country and desist from offending anyone! It’s simple – a divided house will always fall!
Were it a bog-standard political Party, the SNP leadership would be entitled to point proudly to the Party’s lead in the polls after all this time.
Seduced perhaps, by their unquestionable successes, might it now be the case that winning Independence has been subordinated in favour of consolidation and continued technocratic competence? Adoption or otherwise of the Growth Commission Report will, in my opinion, be a historic watershed for the Party’s future direction and the much wider dream of Scottish Independence.
The last Panel Base poll around the festive season sometime showed support for independecne at 57% (with “don’t knows” removed)if I remember if Brexit goes ahead
This poll doesn’t add up.
Any information on how it was done?This is critical.On Online poll produces very different results from a telephone poll (which just underlines how unsafe they are)
Meanwhile that’s five new members into our wee SNP branch.
DMH it was the usual email from Panelbase advising of a poll available. But who knows how they selected who received it, or who was screened out…
Call me an old cycnic.
We are in a political limbo just now, perhaps the poll reflects that with gain or loss of the Indy parties voting intentions until something happens.
The slight increase in UKIP and LibDems may not be that surprising when you consider the wibble position of Labour on Brexit. Voters leaving Labour to find a party that reflects their Brexit and Unionist positions?
*no gain or loss
I have just read through today’s thread, making note of the spat between Schrödinger’s Cat and TD. At 9.01, TD responds to Colin Alexander’s usual anti-SNP diatribe, by saying who else, if you want independence? S.Cat by this time has invented a hypothetical Yes party to scoop up second votes at Holyrood elections. TD seems unaware of this new, hypothetical party that, according to SC, will contain Stu Campbell, Lesley Riddoch, Paul Kavanagh et al. By 9.15 SC is declaring ‘who the fuck is TD?’, because TD didn’t recognise the figment of SC’s imagination! At 9.50 TD complains about the abuse being fired at him for defending the SNP, and goes on to say that such bullying is not the kind of Scotland he wants to live in. And I agree. And probably so would Nicola.
Some people are losing the plot.
Bill McLean says:
What I see is the difference between Indy support winning IndyRef2 and party politics in elections.
IndyRef2 – I am optimistic about this. Once YES campaigning starts, I expect to see support go up and stay above 50%. I expect us to win.
Party politics and elections – the picture more complex. People from every party voted for YES. People are also fluid in their choice. Then there’s a huge number who don’t always vote, and some who never vote. I am very fearful that we will not achieve an Indy majority in Holyrood2021.
An awful lot of voters don’t see the connection between winning IndyRef2 and winning an Indy majority at Holyrood. That IMO is our biggest Achilles Heel.
I can’t speak for other contributors, but I suspect many share my mix of short term optimism and longer term fears if we don’t get out asap.
It’s only a Poll (1000) not a reality. As every other election/Refs shows (within tight margin). They are consistently totally wrong. Predict the wrong result. Even right up to the line.
Past results can be recognised but not future. No one can predict the future. Stuff and nothing. Fuss about nothing.
May runs away from the SNP. Lies and scurrys off. Total intransigence. Coward. Blames everyone for her mismanagement and has a history of it. Has form. The lies are now catching up. Liars always get found out.
Brexit, an essentially English matter, has distracted the SNP leadership from the quest for independence. Perhaps, we now need new insights, new perspectives, a new leadership even focussed on the thing the SNP was set up to obtain. The authoritarian practice of stiffling alternative voices, which the National party is rather good at, does not help.
Under Sturgeon the party just holds on by its finger nails. Any more of this temporising, ‘wait and see’ stuff and an expectant generation will be lost. Time is not on our side.
Unionism is and was patently bad for Scotland. We must hear that articulated loud and clear from Nationalist and pro-independence politicians. This is a vicious propaganda war, so get real. The opposition takes no prisoners, neither should we.
What ‘life’ is left in Scottish Unionism should be smothered.
@Bill McLean
Good post. 🙂
All under one banner and all of us together aren’t serving suggestions. It’s the ONLY way we get what we all support. We’re friends and neighbours regardless of our party of choice, or whether we engage with party politics at all.
The establishment parties and the system they support, work together out of mutual greed, fear or hatred.
That’s not what I’ve seen or experienced on an indy march. I don’t ask people what rosette they wear and nor do I care. I see a LOT of people who do care about each other and simply wanting to be… better. To have a government that reflects their care, their needs and their aspirations about where they live.
And ALL those who choose to live there.
The establishment parties know how to work together when their arse is in a sling, and if there is ONE thing they are good at? It’s making a crack into a chasm.
We are in the doldrums. People are getting fractious.
Westminster is coming to the end of the road. The can can not be kicked down the road any further. Next week there are three votes. On Tuesday Westminster votes on May’s deal. If that’s defeated then on Wednesday Westminster votes on taking No Deal off the tale. If that’s defeated then on Thursday Westminster votes on extending Article 50. The other 27 EU members may or may not agree.
England and Wales fall over the cliff edge – maybe.
May scurrying off not a good look of political competence or authority. A sign of Incompetent mismanagement and disrespect.
tale = table
Sharny Dubs @ 10.22
Most of the people I know aren’t all that switched on to politics,and I know well that glazed look…
But they were, and are almost without exception, Yes voter’s.
Also, my adult kid’s and their friends,who were fully engaged in 2014, have all moved on from the issues.
Such is life for them!
But….they too are all still Yes voter’s.
Even the one’s who were persuaded to vote for Corbin in the last GE, would still vote Yes for Indy.
That’s why I hold the view that we can shift those numbers once we get campaigning.The best that I/we can do at the moment is to be the one they ask about political stuff,cause they know I pay attention…
I’d also say another two things.
1. We need to concentrate on voter registration as a lot of them (especially the young)may have fallen off the register since 2014.
2. It’s the young we need to concentrate on,the older voter’s are,I think either going be be entrenched either way by now (which is probably why the polls look as they do) or movement would be slight..But it’s the young that will make the difference.
I am surprised that so many people are concerning themselves with the results of a poll referring to Holyrood elections in 2021. Do you seriously believe that we will still have a parliament if we remain within this fetid “union”?
It appears as though the poll was either centred on rural Aberdeenshire, the NE fishing communities or your local branch of the orange order, and than balanced out to offer a modicum of authenticity.
The only poll which matters is for independence, and if you still believe that it is still balanced on a knife edge, then you are not talking to the same people as I am.
There are many people who are registered to take part in polls whose opinions of late have not been sought. Others inform me that canvassing is showing support for independence at between 65% and 67%. Remember 2015 when the ‘polls’ were predicting 40 plus SNP seats, then along came Lord Ashcroft’s poll, where they had gone into the local communities, and the predictions suddenly rose to 50 plus seats, a far more accurate prediction. Therefore, my scepticism of the polls is akin to those doubts expressed by Dave McEwan Hill.
The British security forces also appear to be stepping up their activities, with an amateur attempt to ‘ulsterise’ Scottish politics. My only surprise is that Davidson hasn’t leapt back from her extended maternity leave to tell us all that she warned us. Fortunately the security forces appear to be as inept and incompetent as their Tory masters. You would have thought that they might have lain low for a while after the Novichok debacle in Bath, or was it Salisbury?
FM’s Questions today
“First Minister that’s enough”
That is the exact words of Ken McIntosh Presiding Officer interrupting Nicola Sturgeon this lunch time as she is speaking about the disastrous exit from the EU that is about to unfold.
I have never heard him say that to anyone before. Ken showing his true colours – Scotland in Union colours.
This British Labour in Scotland guy was rejected by the voters in my constituency into 3rd place but there he sits telling the First Minister of Scotland to shut up. Rejected by the voters but he is Presiding Officer.
Tells you all you need to know about Britnat ideas of democracy and the unacceptable Britnat designed voting system at Holyrood.
@cubby, i caught that as well, Nicola simply ignored the twonk, rightly.
As for Iain Gray, when Nicola said about Scotland must be the only country on earth which cannot use a currency, it looked like he mouthed “thats right”
@Capella 10.37
Alex Salmond on the list for NE Scotland would be wonderful, once the smears have been dealt with. He would be guaranteed a list seat, same as Margo did in the Lothians.
Of course we should have a YES or an Independence Coalition on the list rather than the SNP. Had that been the case at the last election our 850,000 pro independence list votes would have seen us with around 95 Independence MSPs instead of getting only 4 extra and inflicting Annie Wells on us into the bargain.
I actually don’t think we should have the list. It is just as viable to provide proportionality by using what are the regional divisions and their FPTP votes. And too many people still believe the list vote is for your second preference party so “both votes SNP” is limited by that though all things considered that was our best option.
We could use a method similar to council elections and elect three candidates for each seat.
It is very important to know what particuler method is used by polling companies
Phone polls get a disproportionate percentage of middle age and older middle class respondents.
Online polls get a completely different group.
Neither get an appropriate percentage of the younger voter.
A sample of 1000 is hardly definitive in any sense
Who pays and who sets the questions is very important – and of course they introduced a concept called “weighting” which allows then to do what they want to produce a suitable result.
I have not met a young person in the last decade who would admit to supporting the Tories. The one great strength the Tories have however is in getting their vote out. But that is a fading strength.
36% list votes for the SNP will win approx 4 list MSPs, but if the 36% went to the Greens, for them it would be worth 20+ MSPs, guaranteeing an Indy Ref and at the same time decimating the Yoon list MSPs.
A win win don’t you think.
People need to soak up some Brexshit pain for a wee while methinks.
We’ve not even left yet.
The horror show is yet to begin.
OT.
Labour Party troubles rumble on.
“The Labour Party may have unlawfully discriminated against Jewish people, the UK’s human rights watchdog says.
The Equalities and Human Rights Commission said it was considering launching a formal investigation into anti-Semitism in the party……..”
BBC UK an hour ago:
http://archive.is/7UdWy
We need to realise that achieving independence is not going to be the neat ‘constitutionalist’ walk to freedom many would like to believe. England, and I mean England, is not represented by the bulldog for nothing. This will be a nasty dog fight. Not sure many who lead the SNP and who give their vote to it are prepared for that. Have they forgotten already the vicious psychological warfare of ‘project fear’?
Scotland outside the EU should be prepared for the worst the chauvinist British State can throw at it. Advocating independence could be labelled seditious. Remember Glasgow 1919.
DMH, im on the Panelbase panel this week I have been asked my opinion on Finance, Mobiles, Business, lifestyle, TV, Holiday and Banking. I have not been asked about Politics for several months. Maybe they aint had any Politics polls !!
When the opposition and *journalsts* claim the polls don’t show any movement for Independence which polls are these they refer to because I only ever see voting intention polls for political parties not the question of Independence Yes or No
If in the space of a few months the membership in the SNP has increased by around five thousand, who is being polled on what because I know of no one personally who has ever been polled on anything
But then again I don’t know any Unionists personally now because the ones I did know are now supporters of Yes
I see a lot of grumpy generally elderly people (my age) who don’t know what day of the week it is let alone what a Brexit even is but they do know they hate me and my kind because newspapers tell them they should because for some reason I’m threatening their stable poverty by possibly introducing something that only might be better but there’s no guarantee so hit me again with your Tory whip because at least I’m used to that then I’ll complain about the SNP not going out the back to their magic money tree and *mitigating* it for me
I really really hate people who think the Scottish parliament only exists to protect them from Westminster but refuse to vote for it to have the power to do so
Misreporting Scotland says that Sturgeon rules out an Indy ref if no section 30, not what
I heard, she said she will still ask for section 30 but did not spell out what action would be taken if no section 30 forthcoming. Typical Msm fake news.
Lenny Hartley at 1.14
Exactly my concern about YouGov. I get several YouGov polls a week but not had one on politics for over two years (since I indicated my political position).
At the end of each poll I comment “Why do I not get any political poll?” but no answer o date.
FM’s Questions today.
When watching FMQ’s it is important to always remember that all those British Nationalist party members from Conservative/Labour/LibDem are nearly all not elected by voters but SELECTED by their parties. Most of these Britnat MSPs have never actually won an election. Jobs for life for list MSP’s if they keep in the good books with their party. Is this what we want for our Scottish parliament? Some of them have been there for a long time now and never won an election. Some could be there for 50 years in theory and never contested or won an election.
Contrast that with the fact that nearly ALL the SNP MSP’s actually won their constituency vote.
Lenny Hartley@1.38 pm
Yes it happens all the time. Toodle – oh – the noo was pushing a similar line after FMQ’s. Also talking about illegal referendums and boycotts and the result not being accepted. All more lies. He was of course talking to the “journalist” from the Daily Mail whose stock in trade is lying.
The Britnats lie and they lie all the time about nearly everything
Polls
The most accurate polls taken in recent times have proven to be exit polls and that is why one was not taken?/published at the independence referendum in 2014. We did of course get Ruth Davidsons own exit poll on postal votes live on tv before counting had started.
Fighting like Cats n Dugs on here today!
Again.
V tiring, and dispiriting.
Some cannot give up the routing out of real, or imaginary, fifth columnists & infiltrators.
Your doing our enemies work for them.
Let it go. People can judge for themselves, and to think and act otherwise is deeply patronising.
Macart and Capella – I wonder if this fractiousness we’re reading on this blog has something to do with Brexit as well. I even feel quite uptight about Brexit and the never ending bull emanating from Westminster. I’m quite easy going normally (my wife says i’m too lazy to get angry) but this Brexit stuff is really getting to me. The vast majority of us on this blog have one honourable aim and that is to recover Scotland’s rightful independence. Against immense odds we have to keep together and treat each other with respect and even affection – after all that is the kind of land we want to live in. Not the imperial dishonesty that still mires the people in England who, if anything, have been brainwashed more than we Scots.
I’m beginning to dread any poll results, because sure as fate it brings out the usual suspects who like to indulge their EFTA tangent at length while conveniently overlooking the fact that there is 62% cross-party support in Scotland for Remain, people whose preference is about to be put to the extreme test, and who are just silently crying out for someone to show them a plausible way forward.
As for 2021, if we wait that long we are dead ducks anyway. People need inspiration and a lead right now to focus attention, and with what’s coming down the toll post-Brexit, the current devilish distractions of “mitigation” will seem like a golden age.
It’s simply a question of fine timing. Then we really have to put the issue to the test. like it or not. Attack not only generally being the best form of defence, but an absolute necessity now.
What polls typically don’t (and can’t) show is voter “availability”, especially (as someone pointed out upthread) in the context of a party-oriented electoral poll. I’m convinced there is sufficient latent support for indy, but it will only ever be unlocked by a full-on campaign with inspirational leadership. The case is there, the opposition has nothing but empty scares and a history of broken promises, we just have to get to it. And pretty damn soon, or we are shafted for a very long, sorry time.
@Bill McLean
“I wonder if this fractiousness we’re reading on this blog has something to do with Brexit as well.”
I’d say so.
People are nervous, fearful, uncertain, frustrated and angry. It’s all too human and all too understandable. You’d need a heart of stone not to feel those emotions. Austerity UK was bad and bad enough, but Brexit UK with the same disastrous political establishment, with the same appalling practice of politics and the worst, most toxic, Tory government of the post war period in charge? Any reasonable, thinking, human being keeping their eye on events should be on edge to say the least. (though probably ‘alarmed’ is a better description)
It’s also a fertile ground for others of a less than indy or politically progressive mindset to exploit into the bargain. Mind you, they’re not so big on the ‘helping or understanding others’ thing to start with (shrugs).
If folk can’t talk to one another with respect or affection? If they disagree with another poster so strongly that swerry wurds become a must? I’ve always found moving on by to a.n. other post the best thing for blood pressure.
I rarely lose it at other folks online (I’m rubbish at it anyway) and that’s just me being me. Also? Some folk like to confront or challenge strongly and that’s their thing. How and ever, sometimes we need to all remember who the real bad guys are and why ‘all of us together’ is a good and positive thing.
The aim that binds us gives us common ground, but I’d say it’s the differences that make us special. 😉 (winky thing)
Grim reading indeed for Labour and the Tories.
Helping get the voters out and getting folk registered to vote is incredibly important.
Scotland is on its road to Independence 🙂
Every conversation, every positive comment, every effort by everyone who wants Independence counts towards achieving our goal. =)
Thought the FM wS very good today. Labour and tories link together. Re voting .one party pro eu other pro Efta. ? Tories are wetting themselves.
I notice some comments about “You can’t trust polls they’re biased by Unionists”.
HELLO CAN’T ANYBODY READ?
THIS poll was commissioned by the Rev, AND it’s a Panelbase which the SNP mostly use. Does anyone think the Rev, that’s Rev Stu, Reverend Stuart Campbell, you know, the owner of this blog, Wings Over Scotland, Wings, WOS, is a UNIONIST?
Because if he is he’s a very very very very …
… very very deep sleeper. So deep they probably couldn’t even bring him in from the cold and wake him up because he’s a really really really deep sleeperzzzzzz
@Iain mhor
Yes. I’d seen your post which gave me the idea to do my thing, but didn’t read the detail as if I’m going to do something I always like to do it from scratch rather than being influenced. And if I guesstimate I always do it safely, so if challenged (usually by a unionist), I can take the trouble, come out with way better results and say “Thanks for that, yes you’re right, it’s even better for Independence than I said it was. Are you YES yet?” or something like that.
Yeah, I’d have thought more like a half are non-SNP as you work out, but I played safe – a third makes the point also though not as well.
@galamcennalath
Yes, many of them can’t actually stand the SNP. There is for instance a difference between Labour and SNP politicians and members – it#s easier to have a crack with the Labour ones, specially if you mention Thatcher and Ravenscraig – and Scott Lithgow.
As far as the HE 2021 is concerned I have no interest at all. If Brexit happens in any shape or form and we reach 2021 without it being an Independent Scottish Government election, we’re totally fecked. And if it’s our first Independent one, I’m back to being totally non-aligned, walking hills, and will vote and do no more than that. I’d be out.
If people paid attention to politics they’d vote FOR SNP to gain independence.
IF people paid attention to politics they’d vote FOR SNP to gain independence.
IF…
@ Capella at 10.58
There are 56 list seats, 7 in each of 8 regions. Each of the MSPs elected for a region represents the entire region – there are no geographic subdivisions within the regions – although in practice they tend to concentrate on smaller areas, perhaps where they stood in a constituency, and have offices only there.
Each voter therefore has 8 MSPs.
Since candidates do not stand for specific list seats it is not possible to target them. You could not, for instance “target” Murdo Fraser – the only way to get rid of him is to reduce the total number of Conservative votes right across his region, so that no Tories are elected. That’s unlikely. The only other way would be to persuade the Tories to deselect him, or place him too far down the list to win a seat. That’s also unlikely.
it has been pointed out, quite correctly, that worrying about tactical voting under the dhondt for the holyrood election of 2021 is pointless – if we are not independent by then we are just, total fucked – the UK is going to go into starvation mode post brexit, i.e. the extremities will be drained to keep the centre alive … fuck scotland, london needs your resources, obey your viceroy and god save the king …
the FM should announce the new indyref on march 28 – one day before brexit, for a date – no less than 6 months hence and no later than 1 year; one way or another, it’s happening – section 30 or not, there WILL be a showdown
(- the SNP and all nationalists should heavily short the GBP on the markets beforehand, the profits will finance it for the next decade)
– brexit needs to be felt in its raw savagery – peoples illusions need to be broken – otherwise people will still think – its just teething troubles – or, itll be alright on the night
– according to economic forecasts (- see JK Galbraiths famous remark!) the worst time post brexit will be almost exactly 6 months after; this is the time of maximum squealing and the best time to get all those fearties, holdouts and dimwits into the voting booth … we might even get some farmers and fishermen who have been r4ped-in-the-wallet
the campaign message a simple one : nikki, concerned but conciliatory, arms folded
“well – hows that brexit working out for you … ” (let mummy fix everything, put a plaster on yer knee)
– then out comes the REVS new book in graphic novel format, graphics courtesy Colin Dunn … alan moore reads it and just gives up the game …
– efter that, the gemme wiz oors …