We have a number of questions
Concerning this:
1. Given that the “paying out early” routine has been done at least a dozen times before (sometimes with hilarious consequences) and is therefore of little PR value, how stupid do you have to be to do it over the independence referendum?
2. Paying out early on Manchester United winning the league doesn’t really upset anyone. Manchester City fans have no particular reason to be annoyed about it – their bets still win if their team pulls off the surprise league victory, and it certainly doesn’t affect the outcome. The teams are already motivated to play their best, they’re not bothered about people winning money.
But doing it on the referendum might just actually make a difference to the outcome. It’s a documented phenomenon that some people’s votes are affected by the thought that they want to be on the winning side (and that’s a whole other kind of brainless we don’t have time to go into here).
So how mind-numbingly stupid do Betfair need to be not only risk paying out money they didn’t have to, but also to utterly enrage a couple of million potential customers by (a) turning the most important and serious democratic decision made in Britain for 300 years into a cheap PR stunt, and (b) actually making people think they might have directly influenced the outcome? Is that even legal?
(And is it perhaps relevant that Betfair was founded by a major Tory donor?)
3. If the whole moronic brainfail involves a “multi-million pound payout”, how stupid must the Telegraph be to have employed the sort of thundering cretin who calls that a “six-figure sum”? A single million pounds is seven figures, halfwit.
Readers, we have to get out of this country of cretins if only to boost our average IQ.
But seriously, what happened to all the squirrels?
Stu, Betfair don’t pay out anything, it’s not the way the exchanges work…
What they can do is close the market, which incidentally, they haven’t…
So not sure where this story is coming from…
Have a look here and you will see the market very much open
link to oddschecker.com
Well, I look forward to collecting my payout from these cretins when the Yes vote is announced.
It’s amazing the lengths the propaganda machine of Westminster will go to in order to create a false impression in the minds of voters.
Get yer cash on a Yes win now! By tomorrow morning the price will have halved, certainty.
Union stich up?
From Cameron’s main backers?
BtP
Looks like they will be paying out both sides then.
How much is the City of London bailing them out? They have all of the money.
Betfair is paying out on its sports book, not the exchange.
Only absolute mugs would have backed the indy ref on the Sports book given exchange was offering so much better odds.
ps
keep betting if the are so stupid to pay out and not close the book.
Mega EEJITS
“Stu, Betfair don’t pay out anything, it’s not the way the exchanges work…”
Did you read the story?
Does that mean they really laying off a YES vote?
It’s a bookies con!! The YES bets in Scotland outweigh the NO bets significantly, and at much higher odds too. The bookies stand to lose a fortune with a YES vote.
However, with this con, they get people to come in and bet on NO, increasing their revenue when YES wins.
Bookies ain’t daft you know……. 😉
James Titcomb. Nope. Can’t think of anything…
Thepnr
well that had me going for a while.
propaganda, of course it is.
paddy power was on tv too saying he thinks no will win bookies don’t give tips probably trying to balance the book . as for this story it is skulduggery at best.
Betfair is not a bookie – they cannot make a loss on a bet. They just take commission from people who bet against each other on their exchange. It is impossible for them to settle such bets before the outcome – this Telegraph article is utter nonsense!
Betfair are ONLY doing this for publicity and based on their own claims that they took £50k on Yes, they can’t have taken much more than £100k on No to balance their book. As such they are actually paying £25k for BLANKET press coverage because the press don’t question press releases any more.
Can I suggest you blank out ALL references to the name of this publicity seeking organisation>?
[…] We have a number of questions […]
I think the “bandwagon effect”, will be towards yes.
@Malcolm
Betfair now operate a traditional bookmaking business alongside their Exchange business.
Sky news just said it all for me, ‘it is all about winning, even if it means winning ugly.’
Skulduggery indeed! Anything to lower the morale and reduce the YES vote from prospering.
I’m sure AS will encourage us on in his interview in a few minutes on sky news live on your computer.
Vote YES.
call me dave
off topic, but on VOTE YES and oil.
link to newsnetscotland.com
No one would pay out early on a horse before the race had even begun! This story is hot honk.
Doping scandal!
“Tory founded”
Is there any organisation involved in BT that isn’t?
So a rich unionist lends £100,000 to Betfair, and he gets it back a few months later?
Next.
@Malcolm Osborne
Malcolm, the article is about Betfair “Sportsbook” which is a bookie, not Betfair Exchange.
As others have stated they most likely payed out buttons for all this publicity. It is just more propaganda at the behest of Westminster.
I am very confident that the polls coming out tonight will substantially move the odds in favour of a Yes vote. The polling companies do not want to be left looking ridiculous and on Sunday night I listened to two of them on radio 4 taking about a “Waterloo moment” and how they may have completely got it wrong.
I believe the same statement was in the Herald today.
All part of the manipulation that has utterly failed. They have nowhere else to turn.
Hope they get their fingers burnt.
I have now… lesson to self, don’t skim read articles… apologies
o/t watching cnn Amanpour programme,Mr Major on,only took him 22 yrs to “take stock” then? Must be supporting more powers then. “Russia misbehaving” Russia is not a naughty kid,Russia is a superpower.
Oh jeez, a car crash of dumbness on so many levels. 😀
Still, if that kind of arrogance and complacency keeps a few them in bed on Thursday then cool.
Personally I reckon we should add insult to injury by making it a double figure point spread win for YES. 🙂
if they pay out in error the debit you account for the money they wrongly paid you you accept this condition when you place a bet its in their terms and conditions from their website Errors and Omissions
You will inform us as soon as you become aware of any errors with respect to your account and you will forfeit any amounts shown to be in your account that result from human error or technical fault.
O/T
Salmond’s chair currently empty on Sky News. He will appear soon though.
Sorry to be off topic so early but remember Clare, that little oil field West of Shetland?
link to in.reuters.com
The biggest oil field in Europe, 8 BILLION barrels according to BP. Others can do the arithmetic to see what that’s worth.
That’s why they tried to keep Clare secret and you won’t see it on the news. The biggest oil field in Europe just isn’t worth mentioning.
There is a lot of psy-ops going on.
I detect the dark arts also in the stories of money flooding north to banks in the expectation of folk withdrawing cash on Friday.
Now plan B is no good, tomorrow plan C & D get it
All about wearing down the oppositions determination to win
Hopefully once we get a yes, all gambling institutions will be properly regulated.
Am I far enough down the thread to go stratosphericaly 0/T? (Hope so.)
There’s a great book called ‘The Power of One’, but the real power is when the many speak as One.
This power was displayed to great effect recently in, of all places, Muirkirk.
For those who don’t know, Muirkirk is a mining village in East Ayrshire, far from everywhere and close to nowhere and, like all such villages, was once staunchly Labour.
It could have been used for the much-repeated saying about electing a monkey with a red rosette – there is some truth in this, for they elected George Foulkes.
But those days are gone, as was illustrated last evening…
A swaggering band of ‘No’ canvassers, chests puffed out and red ties rippling in the wind, breezed into town and proceeded to peddle their scares, smears and fears.
They did their thing, some might say treating the public like voting fodder as in days past – until they got to Hareshaw Crescent and Meanlour Drive.
The first inkling our adventurers had that things weren’t quite right was when they passed gigantic Saltires flying from upstairs windows as they trooped into Hareshaw. But they shrugged their padded shoulders and dismissed the fluttering banners as belonging to a very few nasty Natz.
They were soon disavowed of this notion.
Within a few minutes of the Unionists knocking on doors other doors opened further up the street – then, in a scene reminiscent of a John Carpenter movie, a large group of residents came rushing towards the Labour group.
Much shouting occurred and angry voices were heard before the horrified canvassers decided prudence wasn’t just a cousin twice removed and they beat a hasty retreat.
Never, and I mean NEVER, has such a thing occurred in an Ayrshire mining village – for ordinary citizens to turn on the so-called ‘People’s Party’ really shows that they’ve burnt their bridges with the electorate whose votes they used to weigh.
Maybe the people of Muirkirk will go back to voting for Labour in council, Scottish and European elections but one thing’s for sure – they weren’t for having any of the ‘Better Together’ shite Labour was trying to pass out last night.
One of the chastened canvassers – a local councillor – was hailed by a resident as they left the area.
“Did ye no’ ken whit was gonnae happen when ye saw the flags?” he was asked.
The councillor took a deep breath and answered shakily, “Naw. We didnae realise… We didnae realise…”
And on Friday morning, after the last result is in and our country has voted for Independence, the whole Labour movement in Scotland will echo his words –
“We didnae realise…”
They’ll be paying out twice for me if they have done so.
Can i put a bet on that poisoned Jackie Burd not to grace my TV again at hogmanay
In fact ever really
I mean “EVER”
Sean Clerkin of Iain Gray-Subway fame, who also buttoned-holed Lamont and got dingied by her with a famous sneering look, carries out an anti-Atos protest at some NO event in Glasgow. Watch out for the imperious chilling look and posture of Nawbags Galloway standing like a Lord of the Manor over one his errant serfs –
Danny Alexander heckled at stormy Glasgow No to Scottish independence rally
link to youtube.com
Sorry O/T
I just think Sky News played Yew Choobs version of I want to break free with pictures of AS in the background. They mixed it a bit but it was Yew Choob hahaha.
link to youtube.com
@John Bell
That was a great post. Heartening, Cheers!
Betfair are only paying out a “six-figure sum”. If they do at all, these things are a bit arcane. It’s the headline writer who has had a rush of blood to the brain.
This is just made up BS from the telegraph.
1. The market at betfair is still open
2. betfair is an exchange and not a bookies
3. befair doesn’t payout but the other party of the bet.
John Rentoul in Indie wrote this,
‘On this, I bring further hopeful news from someone who has seen the Yes campaign’s canvass returns up to Thursday last week: that Yes does not have a lead in any of its target areas. Despite throwing everything into the campaign, the Yes campaign itself reckons that it is well behind and that to get anywhere near the figures suggested by opinion polls would be a remarkable achievement.
Any views?
Thepnr and joe kane
great vids.
I sent Betfair a email asking them if they had paid out and that they only did so to manipulate the odds because they didn’t want people lumping on to yes at such good odds. I informed them of what William Hills were saying yesterday and Betfair emailed me back to say that three quarters of all bets placed with were for yes which in my opinion backs up what I was saying about a)manipulating the market and b) Doing the unionists bidding by making it look like No were going to win when that clearly isn’t the case.
A wee gem from YES Kilmarnock facebook. A must watch.
link to youtube.com
I put a bet on with Corals today at 11/4 , Thats just over 3x your money. I will enjoy spending it on celebrating our landslide win and still have enough for a wee food bank along the road.
More shite today and it’s water off a ducks back, Everyone i see is a YESSER although today i saw 3 or 4 today a No stall in Dalkeith. They where all well to do pensioners telling other pensioners their pensions were at stake.
The young ones however are tweeting and blogging like mad and planning parties all over the country. So it’s down to the middle lot. We who used to be blind loyal to Labour. Not any more.
Think it;s going to shock some . me i think over 65% but i am the eternal optimist.
off to the pub for a wee spell. First time out in ages.
Wallet – Check
Money -check
Fags and lighter- check
Wee Blue Book- check, Never leave home without it. 😎
keep safe folks and keep your spirits up 2 days to go
YYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS
This Sky News interview with Salmond is a disgrace, dunno how he keeps calm
I see Clare Lally is back. Getting quoted in the Daily Mail but this time she’s a labour campaigner, no longer an ordinary house wife.
link to dailymail.co.uk
@CalumCarr does that mean the target areas are newton mearns and morningside? Canvass returns in most areas were really good for yes (probably better than they want to let on).
I emailed betfair about this and they emaied me back and said that three quarters of all the bets they had taken were for Yes but smaller stakes which confirms what William Hill said yesterday. They are clearly doing the unionists bidding by a) manipulating the market and trying to undermine yes supporters moral by making us think like we can’t win.I replied by saying well since yes is at the great price of 3 to 1 they would take a serious hit.
John Bell @ 7.20.
Brilliant, as somebody born “ower the watter” in Muirkirk, this story made my day.
YESGUY
Wallet
Watch
Testicles and
Fekin Notes
Note the order
From a late Ozzie academic pal of mine.
Re canvass returns, RUC published theirs and they were all positive. Some very very positive radicalindependence.org/2014/08/19/radical-independence-campaign-18k-canvass-sample-released/
Sorry, killed my link link to radicalindependence.org
Good grief – watching Sky news live with Alex Salmond being spoken to with extreme discourtesy and blatant disrespect by Adam Boulton. How Mr Salmond remains dignified giving reasoned answers is beyond belief.
Rear end on a plate I reckon Mr Boulton?
Far enough for me, John Bell @ 7.20pm.
Great story. That’s one of the things I love about Wings, whenever you have a momentary doubt, can we really do this, someone posts something like thi, and you’re right back up again.
Thanks.
O/T
Has anyone else noticed how Adam Bolton is constantly interrupting the FM? Bolton asks a question, and no sooner has the FM attempted to reply than Bolton is jumping in. Darling’s interview was robust but the interruptions with the FM are an utter disgrace. Get your act together Sky.
Jackie Bird was a rude shite to Big Eck tonight.
She can collect her coat in a few days, i am sure Anglian telly will be requiring a world class anchor soon ( on seconds thoughts – perhaps not)
It’s a terrible interview, Adam Boulton is behaving disgracefully
The Betfair Sportsbook is their traditional bookie service. It typically offers worse odds than the exchange meaning they can immediately hedge their risk and most likely turn a profit. It’s money for nothing for Betfair. With the volatility in the price over the last few weeks they are most likely in the money for No and have cashed out for free publicity.
Joe Kane just watched your wee youtube clip, im sure police Scotland will be investagating the assault of the man and charges will be announced soon. lol 😉
Thank’s Stu… finally got my Wings. Huge Smiles here. :o)
Yeap, having watched Adam Bolton’s interview with Alex Salmond, it’s like Sky news reporter James Matthews said earlier, ‘it is all about winning, even if it means winning ugly.’
YESGUY: keep safe folks and keep your spirits up 2 days to go
Your cheerleading is much appreciated, YesGuy.
These last days are hellish tense, fraught with missteps. More power to you!
PS: Just watched the First Minister getting cut off by SKY commercials while trying to answer a question. Yeah, big business commercials are more important than any plebiscite for the people’s vote.
All the media in Scotland have backed themselves into a corner, I wont forget and I hope others dont, They are manipulating our democratic right to self determination and the future of generations to come.
Scum doesnt come close to describing them.
C4’s stupid news just had a “small business owner” state unchallenged that he was voting no as a Yes result “we could end up like Greece”.
My God the level of ignorance at this late stage beggars belief.
Just saw David dimbleby in his promo saying Gordon brown is offering Scotland home rule.
Did I miss something today?
( Questions on Ask Wings – some of you could answer)
“A Labour campaigner, Clare Lally, said on Twitter: ‘Upsetting scenes in Edinburgh at an event, I had to link arms with Monica Lennon to protect Johann Lamont and Margaret Curran #disgraceful.'”
________
Says it all really.
I can’t describe how awful Adam Boulton was in that interview with AS just now, we really have to get out of this insanity.
note the bookies small print says it will only honour guaranteed payout on NO bets placed before 11am on the 16th of September. It’s an outright con to goad punters into throwing money away on NO to offset the payout liability on likely YES win.
Come now Stu, keep focused old chap; This nation ruled by cretins is more accurate, and doesn’t risk giving the cretins ammunition in the final lap to paint you as motivated by bigoted nationalism. Billy Bragg has a good one in the Guardian today pointing out this basic decency in the Yes movement, in fact. And many of us in England deplore the lies, bullying, and outright contempt being shown for the Scottish voters because we are sympathetic to your desire to build a better world for your people… But the vote is going to be close, much closer than I expected certainly, so it may end up being decided by the infamous floating voter who decides in the booth based on “feeling”; so why not give them a good a feeling to go in there with, eh? Don’t turn into Shouty Train Chap, even if it’s understandable with so much at stake… No one likes Shouty Train Chap much.
And good luck, folks. I’ll be staying up late to hear the results come in, even being the softest of soft Yes’s as I now am, and wishing you the best; but whatever the result, remember that you only truly lose if you give up being the best of people after the vote comes in. Chins up, remember what you’re fighting for, and why the fight continues after this week; Either for the new constitution or to hold the UK machine’s feet to the fire and turn bribes into workable legislation. The UK machine is hoping your energy won’t last; and a No will hurt like hell I am sure (I remember how I felt listening to Bush win re-election, urrrgh) but it’s really, really not about flags and hate is it? So stay chipper and chummy if you can.
A Labour campaigner, Clare Lally, said on Twitter: ‘Upsetting scenes in Edinburgh at an event, I had to link arms with Monica Lennon to protect Johann Lamont and Margaret Curran #disgraceful.’
___
Well who’d have thunk it?
Come now Stu, keep focused old chap; This nation ruled by cretins is more accurate, and doesn’t risk giving the cretins ammunition in the final lap to paint you as motivated by bigoted nationalism. Billy Bragg has a good one in the Guardian today pointing out this basic decency in the Yes movement, in fact. And many of us in England deplore the lies, bullying, and outright contempt being shown for the Scottish voters because we are sympathetic to your desire to build a better world for your people… But the vote is going to be close, much closer than I expected certainly, so it may end up being decided by the infamous floating voter who decides in the booth based on “feeling”; so why not give them a good a feeling to go in there with, eh? Don’t turn into Shouty Train Chap, even if it’s understandable with so much at stake… No one likes Shouty Train Chap much.
And good luck, folks. I’ll be staying up late to hear the results come in, even being the softest of soft Yes’s as I now am, and wishing you the best; but whatever the result, remember that you only truly lose if you give up being the best of people after the vote comes in. Chins up, remember what you’re fighting for, and why the fight continues after this week; Either for the new constitution or to hold the UK machine’s feet to the fire and turn bribes into workable legislation. The UK machine is hoping your energy won’t last; and a No will hurt like hell I am sure (I remember how I felt listening to Bush win re-election, urrrgh) but it’s really, really not about flags and hate is it? So stay chipper and chummy if you can.
(reposted as first try didn’t go through?)
Regarding the BBC and Sky interviews with A.Salmond. Yet again through their unconscious bias they just don’t seem to get it that by acting like this, then ordinary, non-political voters just get really pissed off with them and side with Yes when they watch them behave like that.
AS and NS can handle it but I do agree it worries me when some of the others get interviewed as they are scared to go off the party script. Luckily they seem to be interviewing quite a lot of non-snp folks as well who are pretty well informed.
In the 70’s my wife and I lived in South Wales so did Murdoch MacLellan and his then wife. Murdoch’s brother and the girl to be Murdoch’s wife went to Bellahouston Academy with me. We met socially on several occasions and had much in common. Oh how things have changed!!!
How to bolster your prejudiced, jaundiced view of self-determination:
…invite a couple of waverers to the studio who feel there are no answers coming from anybody and therefore nothing is certain. That way you increase doubt in the public mind.
Fantastic.
Another smartass tactic from the British Right-wing.
@ jeremy the lawyer
He did indeed say “home rule”. So we’re Ireland now?
red blogger
Interesting about the oil, and if reports in Ayrshire local papers are true some oil firm is ahead of the curve, apparently there has been an Oil exploration vessel sailing around the area beyond Ailsa Craig, really interesting.
Hard working man is the First Eck. Interview was mainly for the folk dun Suth who are still a year behind the script.
However plenty there for the DK’s to ponder and for us YESSERS to draw strength from.
They are probably having tea and scones now. A media circus.
The pain will soon be over when we get the Westminster poison removed on Thursday. Then a wee bit of healing and recuperation before we build a new country. Looking forward to it. 🙂
Keep it going folks,
We are not voting No to remain a minority, we are voting YES to become a NATION.
@Titler
Don’t you worry me old cock. I’m sure the Rev will have a wee post for Thursday that will send voters into the booths with a spring in their step.
Your a bit late for a party invite but all are welcome.
A.N. Surgent
I agree. Also agree with Jim Sillars.
Once this is all over and the partying calms down these companies, banks, broadcasters will feel the backlash.
.. and I’m sure Mr Salmond will have a few words to say about them all. Probably like yourself I take a direct slur on big Eck as a slur on all of us who seek independence.. how dare they.
Kevin pringle just tweeted that there is an ICM poll out at 9pm. Usually a good sign
@John Bell 7.20pm
Great story, beautifully told
Well, the “Vow” didn’t last very long, did it?
link to logicsrock.blogspot.co.uk
Right, that’s me off down the pub with pocketful of Wbb’s for some last minute campaigning. I think tonight and tomorrow are the key days to talk to the Soft No’s and get them converted. A lot of Folk are just worried about voting Yes rather than scared or against it (excluding knuckledraggers). There’s a big difference as we all know.
laukat
Thanks for that, I will pop over to Scot Goes Pop after 9.
Spoke to someone I know – can’t say who or there position but I was told “last week BBC London took over the running of BBC Scotland”.
Stevie: Once this is all over and the partying calms down these companies, banks, broadcasters will feel the backlash.
Stevie, I think we see it now, the fierce energy from supporters rejecting the contorted efforts of Scots to undermine their own country and its economy.
Supporters probably never realised how much some are prepared to sell their country cheap to another nation.
On the positive side, we are throwing off our cringe.
Just seen the yes flash mob, on face time, in glasgow’s george square! Wish a was there it looks awesome! It’s happening people, they canny punch out our butterfly revolution! 🙂
Just a thought, I believe that some of these organisations will require a licence to operate in an INDEPENDENT Scotland and that includes the Bittertogether Broadcasting Corpn. I think that they are in for a very rude awakening in the coming months.
Auld Rock
roddy
again they are proposing it has a value, don’t fall for it, it has no value.
I hope AS in his debate with GB tonight on BBC , manages to ask if Labour is elected next year there could be any possibility of a Scots MP being in Moribund’s cabinet , spending English tax payer money with no consequence.
This is a serious aspect of Home Rule which will remove ambition from Labour politicians and should concern Scottish voters.
So the meaningless ‘Vow’ will pretty much be ripped up by Tory MPs, and Nick Clegg of course.
@John Bell
Just read your story up the thread there. Best thing I’ve read today. Well described too. 🙂
Hi, everyone. I am so impressed by the lass Lindsay who left the YES sign on the face of Edinburgh Castle. I vote that if we get independence, Edinburgh is renamed “Lindsayburg”. Why have a capital named after our historical enemy who killed so many of our ancestors?
For everyone here and around the country that has been fighting for a Yes vote here is Yew Choobs tribute to YOU.
Heartfelt and will be the last ever Yew Choob video.
Thank you Jock and the writers for your contribution.
link to youtube.com
Zipperday doo dah zippy aye eh – anyone still glum? Only the nobs, I’m off for another skip around Brechin.
OO spoil for a fight.
Hi folks
I just posted the message below on the “Two cousins” thread, and then realised it makes more sense here!
Today I placed a bet (well, two bets actually) for the first time in my life! (I had a very sheltered, middle class upbringing). I bet a whole £10 on YES to win, and another £10 on a 55% or higher majority. I wanted to bet on a 60% or higher majority but they wouldn’t let me. Someone who used to work in that betting shop told me that this means they think it will be at least 60% and that’s why they wouldn’t accept my bet. I have no idea if that’s right, but I’m hoping – no, EXPECTING – to win about £100!!
I’ve stopped being scared now and I’m just full of hope and confidence. Boy, do I love this country.
Stu,
Apologies for not visiting your excellent pages as often as usual. Just too busy out on the street talking to people, helping at the local stalls, working at the local hub. I’m reduced to using you as a daily digest of what went on while I was out. If you are not seeing a drop in page views this week, tell people to get the hell out there and speak to people.
I managed to give out my last Wee Blue Book this afternoon, (except the one I am saving for my neighbour which will go tomorrow) I set myself a target of giving all of them away by today, every one left in my bag being an opportunity wasted. They really have helped hugely in supporting discussions and persuading those open to persuasion. A huge thanks for producing such a valuable resource.
Stevie boy
I have been mightily impressed with AS over the last few weeks, I dont think there is anyone in Scottish politics that could have
remained as cool under the constant and blatant intimidation that he has been subjected.
A great statesman and diplomat for an Independent Scotland.
Guaranteed the polls will say blow for Salmond – defeat inevitable and better together are steaming ahead,you know it is a narrative to downhearten yes folk and deter them from voting.
I’ll admit to being wrong,but seems we are being sold/told its all over (again).
Why is the press freaking out at the loss of circulation to o-line sources? The solution is in their own hands. Get news not press releases. Print truth not lies.
When that happens I might actually buy a newspaper. As it is I read the headline in the shop and then go on-lie to find out what really happened.
Got my Last Voter in Scotland card game today. 🙂 Noticed Lamont was missing and there was no bunker card either.
Socrates, I’m from the scheme myself – my mum was one of the first to move into Lapraik Avenue from the ‘Raws’.
link to forexlive.com
Caught this over on Scot goes pop from comments section.
Thanks Brian.
Here are the upcoming polls ahead of Thursday’s referendum:
Today – 9pm: ICM poll for The Guardian
Today – 10:30pm: Survation poll for the Scottish Daily Mail
Wednesday 17th – 6pm: Ipsos MORI poll for STV News
Wednesday 17th – Expected well before midnight: YouGov poll
Wednesday 17th – No time yet stated: Opinium poll for The Telegraph
Thursday 18th – No time yet stated, early afternoon expected: Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard
Posts seem to disappear today. These polls due out will be supposed to down hearten yes no doubt,just a continuation of “you might as well stay at hame,you have already lost”.
Even if they showed yes ahead,a pinch of salt will be needed lol.
@Grouse Beater
“…invite a couple of waverers to the studio who feel there are no answers coming from anybody and therefore nothing is certain. That way you increase doubt in the public mind”
Its subtle and relentless propaganda, some of it is quite clever other bits (Nick Robinson reporting) not so.
Not good for democracy but at least we’ll see the back of them after the votes have been counted.
This story is just a piece of propaganda to convince the hard of thinking that a NO vote is a certainty.
Betfair’s ‘free’ publicity is just a bonus.
Isn’t there a decent scare story today to debunk?
Natasha @ 8:34, that happened to me too.
I wanted to place fifty quid on an over 60% for Yes and was refused at Freddie Williams bookies. They wouldn’t allow me to bet any more than a tenner and the result has to fall between 50.1% and 60% and they gave me 10 to 1.
I took it but I think I’ll lose, cos it’ll be way over 60%!
A must read about the BBC bias with some proper journalism.
link to ibtimes.co.uk
The bookies must be in for a tanking if they are refusing bets.
Team of 16 out canvassing this evening in “Labour” ( or maybe once was) area of Ayr. 60 – 70% Yes, approx 20% No, approx. 15% undecided.
I think that’s what surprised us most – the number of undecideds. Difficult to say what way they will go; most seemed to want to go Yes but feart.
This on top of all other returns ( better than expected in “Tory” areas) we can’t see anything other than convincing Yes win
Come on folks, this is a diversion, one conversation at a time, we’re winning, just got my last 9 WBB put into two beauticians shops in Stonehaven today, after all , they’re no use to me on Friday.
O/T A must read about the bbcs bias in our Independence campaign. Some proper journalism for a change.
link to ibtimes.co.uk
Oh well, they don’t seem to have anything left to throw at us. Just try and undermine our confidence, they really are pathetic.
Nae chance, we will turn oot on Thursday in huge numbers and vote, and I’m quite sure it will be yes wae a good majority.
I just don’t care about these opinion polls, or a’ the other pish that they keep spouting. They’re feart, and it’s all too late.
O/T but interesting. Guido Fawkes, right wing blogger based in London appears to be supporting Scottish Independence. Visit his blog at order-order.com
Bad news is that he has a picture of Paul Dacre, editor of the Daily Heil visiting Downing Street today. What will be the story tomorrow?
Why is there a poll being published when voting is underway? I thought this was against the rules.
Three polls released tonight. First at 9.00 Next at 10:30, Not sure about the last.
I predict a massive swing to no. It is what we expected to be told. The reality is something different as we all know!
If any single Wings reader has a single Wee Blue Book left, then get rid of it tomorrow.
It serves no purpose whatsoever in your hands, take it to work tomorrow, hand it to a neighbour or total stranger in the street.
There are votes there yet to be won and you doing this may mean one more. So no delay, get them out there tomorrow. Please!
AN Surgent: A great statesman and diplomat for an independent Scotland.
His stature is increasing by the day. He has no equal in the UK parliament.
“The Herald’s view: we back staying within UK, but only if there’s more far-reaching further devolution”
It all sounds fair and rational except that it takes us beyond the point of no return and there will be nothing that can be done if it doesn’t work out as the Herald suggests.
It’s merely a devious gambit to fool Scots into voting NO. The Herald are no friends of Scotland, but serve only their masters who own the paper.
Nana:
If that rumour is correct it’s actually good for YES.NO down after all this deluge of negativity that the YES campaign has faced in the last 2 weeks.
If that sort of stuff had happened to a side on a referendum here ( and we do have them in Oregon) that side would be down by 30 %.
polling companies have reputations to uphold
If NO bias all the better fri morn
I am hearing rumours it is Yes 52% No 48% in ICM poll. Do not have conformation yet
Three sleeps to go!
(Two for Natasha!)
Feel like a wee laddie waiting for Christmas – and you know that the best present EVER is under the tree – a country of our own!
@Roboscot
I am with you. Seems incredible that you are allowed to released a opinion poll while people are still voting. Should be illegal. Clearly against democratic principles.
Twitter: 52% Yes, 48% No
Two sleeps for some.
Got it now, it is the other way round (morons) Yes 48% No 52 Not as bad as I thought
CM/Scotsman #indyref poll shows increasing Yes support. No 45%, Yes 41%, 14% undecided (No leads 52 to 48 without undecideds). Yes +3 No -3 since August Poll 😀
Survation leaked as YES 48, No 52. Not too bad at all.
I will see what the entrails divulge on Scot goes POP
PS: Extra 3rd poll at 21:15hrs Opinium I heard.
And Broon’s a Proud Scot dontcha know
Grouse Beater
Your right, but I think even I would be better than that bunch of
wasters 🙂
Opinium is showing the same!
Two polls put No ahead. Statements from the No camp very confident they are winning by a’considerable margin.’
Lying bastard brown talking bout how pensions are gonna be lost wen the truth is they wont cant put in to words how much he gets on my fucking nerves sorry bout the swearing
Very close the get out the vote organization on the day will be very important.
Still see it 54-46 YES!
Man wish I was home.
I agree Alex Smith, it is a bit like being a wean and waiting for Christmas. I’m feeling a wee bit nervous now, but it’s a nice nervous or maybe it’s excitement. I thought that by now I would have been a gibbering idiot, but I’m not.
When you hear stories from John Bell in Muirkirk of all places it is heartening for the rest of us. I think Labour in Scotland come election time might just find that they have been given the same lesson that Scots gave the Tories a few years ago.
I bet you the third one comes out with the same result!
Old Lord Barnett – he of the Barnett Formula, says it was meant to last only a few years.
He feels it was redundant years ago.
So, more flaky powers – no Barnett Formula.
Grouse, the polls are a statistical dead heat
Survation’s last poll showed Yes at 46.5% so with 48% today we are on the up, and No’s lead is now within the margin of statistical error.
Grouse beater:
Hope that gets out to the older NO voters. They will not bother coming out.
Very stupid of them to say that.
Stunned the polls are all the same. NOT
It’s almost like they have been co-ordinated. 😀
Yes very strange co-ordination.
What are the chances in reality?
Odds of all three having the same result is roughtly 1 in 2 to the power of my overdraft
That they have been co-ordinated?
I think betfair might have paid out by now 😀
I used to work for Betfair. There may be more simple commercial imperatives at play here. The market Betfair settled on is one against which they have financial liability ie they pay the money out of their own pocket. Usually betting markets are good predictors of election results, but at the moment the prices being offered for a YES vote are very high, considering that the polls are a statistical tie. This means that on these SportsBook markets, the company have a high exposure to a YES result, but not so much to a NO result. The company can hedge its position in the online betting exchanges, because it can get good odds for a YES vote there, so if YES comes in, their profits there would cover their losses in the Sportsbook markets.
So in fact, Betfair may be cutting their loses in the NO Sportsbook markets here, while hedging in the YES exchange markets, simply because the odds for a YES vote are much higher than they should be, given the available evidence.
The company’s actions may simply indicate they think a YES vote is more likely than the odds currently suggest.
No. of bookies/1 paid out?
2 more days to be rid of this bag of shit that calls itself Gordon brown,proud scot…puke!
What the Holy Feck is Crash talking about??? A weird lecture on political philosophy – half-cock at that – is really going to make thon Broch fisherman vote no???? He’s half-barmy so’s his army Broonie is a twerp.
Stop swearing honies – our language is that of the joyful, we will express ourselves with the words that our children can understand xx
Apologies, my posts are taking an average of 10 minutes to appear.
There is a reason I don’t bet. But thanks Ian for explaining.
Rev’s last tweet 2m ago?
TV and internet both mysteriously out at Wings Forward Base North. Bloody MI5.</I?
Guido’s going to love this performance from McDoom.
‘I’ve been speaking in Scotland over all these years’. I think he’s confusing us with his career after leaving politics, the one where the world pays vast sums to the Office of G&S Broon for a first class lifestyle. Has he been active on his Dalgety doorstep; has he had a role in in the Indy Ref at all; how many comebacks as he made so far?
The man’s lost the plot, a legend in his own mythical mind.
Pretty fucking suspicious-looking cat on the roof of a white van in the lay-by.
Rev we’re watching your back. Even from far away.
If the polls do reflect the actual result on Thursday then there can be no doubts as the the part played by the BBC and the rest of the media in winning it for the No Scotland sleazebags.
I refuse to live in a country where the liars and scum like Murphy, Reid, Brown and Darling are poncing about gloating while their friends are given carte -blanche to destroy what’s left of Scottish life and culture.
New Opinium poll :
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes 48% (+1)
No 52% (-1)
Peter, the polls don’t reflect the nearly 1 million voters that don’t normally vote. Given how far no were ahead when they had to register, I can’t see them voting no, the vast majority will be voting yes. Polls don’t cover that
gesods, i’ve nearly got that wednesday feeling, even though it’s still tuesday, and i don’t normally get it til friday. 🙂
The more I see and hear Gordon Brown I am quickly coming to the conclusion that the man is seriously unhinged and I don’t mean that in a nasty way
I have serious concerns for his mental health.
Got to laugh, earlier today I commented on the latest Independence BBC news story about how the original pictures of the Yes and No campaign, told you everything you needed to know about what side of the fence the BBC sits on. And now they have added a new photo of the Yes side. Must have felt the bias was a wee bit too obvious.
link to bbc.co.uk
I’ll certainly be glad to see the back of them, as they are a total effrontery to balance and reliability. 😉
Prof John Curtice: “But I have always said this is the No campaign’s to lose & it certainly looks as if they have got pretty close to that”
The polls don’t reflect the way the WBB and every other piece of merchandise, car stickers etc were flying off the table today. The voters are coming looking for this stuff. And the other side are completely absent.
Thepnr – didn’t realise that was the last Yew choob video – blogged it a couple of days ago and have updated accordingly.
link to eurofree3.wordpress.com
cynical Highlander: any further news about the Orange order aggression? Would be happy to blog about it as have already mentioned the march in edinburgh link to eurofree3.wordpress.com
if anyone cares to look at previous posts they will see that like most irish people, i do not support the orange order in any shape or form.
PS – to all scots – hold the line – take heed of the Quebec advice to Ignore the polls – Vote YES – friday is the first day in the rest of your life – as an independent state!!
All AS has to do is not roll around the floor foaming at the mouth and he’s won this set of interviews. He will do much better, I’m sure.
To be fair,Paula, I did wait til after the watershed 🙂
Gordon Brown talking complete pish, with an easy interview Dimberly now on BBC. Plethora of lies and threats.
First Minister coming up soon ( he has been a very busy man today ), we will see if he gets the same easy ride.
Right that’s the warm up act off. Let the show begin.
G H Graham
I think I may have mistaken you for another Winger, when posting to you a wee while back. I’m not sure if you do actually sing pirate chanties, but apologies if my comment caused distress. 🙂
Well done Stuart, it’s cost Betfair virtually nout … as every wise punter uses the exchange for 30% better odds. Yet again English Tory backers will try and use every trick in the book to hammer a YES vote. Herald came out in favour of No and I promptly cancelled my subscription – disgrace that not one paper represents more than half of Scotland!
Gordon Brown talking to “Mr. Dimbleby” is a total embarassment for a man. Totally delusional. God Help US listening to this MORON!!
If you believe the polls? Well, I suspect you must have had a lobotomy. There is no visible evidence of the No supporters, hwat? have they all got their heed under the covers? Haha.
They are not there in any numbers because they comprise mainly Tories who support Austerity and the protection of their own wallets. That’s why their shy, embarrassment more like.
The pollsters, better known as shysters are trying to dupe the electorate on Westminsters behalf. Yes are well in front.
So don’t sweat, let you eyes and ears reveal the TRUTH.
Well,thats the poll storyline fixed for tonight then,better not even bother voting now lol. 🙂
heraldnomore
I was speaking to a fellow veteran campaigner today who is more in tune with the feeling on the ground and said that there has been a ‘big swing’ to Yes in the past week that the polls are not picking up yet.
Murdoch has let it be known that an independent Scotland joins the EU his newspapers will destroy us.
So, after all the vile crapology from the No camp about Salmond allegedly in the pocket of Murdoch it transpires it was another big fat lie.
Murdoch thinks as they do, we are welfare junkies obsessed with looking after our countryside.
O/T but I just got 4 Aye badges send from Inverness (by my Mum) all the way to Stavanger – I REALLY want to wear them on Friday!!! I can´t vote, but have everything crossed for a resounding yes.
Let’s not tell them Marcia. Let them have their wee polls. Let their supporters descend into the complacency and ineptitude that got them where they are today. Who knows what they might come up with next if the polls reflected the mood on the streets.
Yep polls are wrong I suspect there is funny business going on with them. Anyway we will go in as underdogs and come out as 6% winners. I want to see that Ipsos poll before I agree where we might actually be. Even at my work there has been a big swing to yes. It can’t all be fiction.
F.M getting a fair hearing from Dimbles. Being allowed to put forward his points
My girlfriend travelling home from Glasgow to Coatbridge, tells me that loads of yes signs put on lamposts, they were not there this morning. She also let it slip in her office she was a YES vote.
She has been taken aback by how many others have now also informed her ( she is in a senior position )that they are Yessers too! She feels it all around her.
A pleasant surprise, the people ARE rising.
@Big Jock, the polls may be wrong (and we must hope that they are) but there’s no realistic chance of them being in common cause with each other, or with BT. No point in us inventing conspiracies…we’re bigger than that.
Yes 48% (+1) No 52% (-1)
Heartening, but not inspiring. One day to double effort!
Where are all these NO voters?
On the door, in the street, their canvassers (I’ve met one at the door and one in the street).
Are they hiding, are most of the people telling lies on the door, in the street when I/we talk to them?
Where are they getting these NO numbers for the polls?
Please can anyone tell me?
Don’t panic about the polls people if we are showing neck and neck that’s great because once you add in the missing million then I am sure we will end up over 60%
James, it is easy. You pick areas where you know the no voters are going to be when you are doing the poll Simples
There is an event in the meadows weds,Yes voters from many nationalities will be there with their flags.Music too and English scots,RIC & aye marchmont stall.from 5-7pm(and maybe later)
My last day on the English scots stall,so sad,I will miss all the lovely YES people so come & say hello and cheer me up!(bring tissues)
link to twitter.com
In the rather depressing 1979 Referendum the final poll by MORI had the two sides tied. On the day the Yes won more undecided than No on the day. Same thing happened in 1997.
link to ipsos-mori.com
All these polls are very wrong because they are not polling a representative cross section of the people going to vote.
And they know it!
They are being used as political tools but the pollsters have to retain credibilty so a confused message is coming out. As long as the people believe it is on a knife edge the only effect of these polls is to increase the turnout which is to YES advantage.
As a matter of interest paying out a six figure sum on NO victory could actually cost Betfair as little as £10,000 and that’s worth it for a big headline.
I’ll be into Ladbrokes tomorrow for another wee bet on over 55% at 11/2
I have believed for some time that if the polls show us above 45% we win and I am still sure this is the case
FM in top form. What was it the warm up was saying again?
@ben madigan
No Ian Brotherhood might help, sorry.
“It is enough that the people know there was an election. The people who cast the votes decide nothing The people who count the votes decide everything.”
Joseph Stalin
I am surprised that Dimbleby is being fair and giving our FM the courtesy his position deserves.
Anybody elses posts not comming up?
And the new poll has 48% yes 52% no. I SMELL SHITE
Only thing alxe didna say was that broon was talkin shite
I said earlier I was less worried about rigging. With the uniformity of these polls running counter to all intuition the alarm bells are ringing at full blast.
Dimbleby was light on both but enabled them to speak. Alex Salmond was excellent. Gordon brown was not.
@Ben Madigan/cynicalHighlander –
Sorry lads, I don’t know any more tha youse – not long in, just saw the SSP Tweet from Drumchapel. Worrying stuff.
All three polls out tonight are yes 48% – No 52%
Dimbleby is good. Probably the best interview BBC has given with Alex, respectful but probing and no talking over the answers. Pacific Quay has a lot to learn.
What is this leaked secret NHS document bbc have plucked out ether?
OT
Sun front page for tomorrow?
link to twitter.com
The person who leaked that document should be sacked.
Apparently being twisted to say something different (the nhs doc)
link to twitter.com
yep got to hand it to Dimbleby he was fair and unlike other BBC spokesmen allowed the FM to speak without interrupting asked some difficult questions which Eck answered without any problems and looked a true statesman ,i had to turn the sound off for Crash broon as the man makes me want to puke but i can imagine it went much the same as any other BT rant pooling and sharing,better together ,Scotland ruined if it votes yes blah blah blah new powers ,Wee Eck a dictator ,i saved the world, i kind of hope Dimbleby gave him a hard time but i doubt it.
Actually it’s pure pish. Already published as part of annual budget process for health finances. BBC just scare mongering along with Scottish labour.
My last post has just vanished.
The polls are wrong but the odds are even more wrong. They are both being used as political tools.
But it is not working. As long as the polls show a tight battle the only effect is to make more people vote which helps YES greatly
To pay out a “six figure sum” at the odds that have been offered on a NO vote could actually cost Betfair as little as £10,000- well worth it for a good headline
O/T
I had an enraged lady into our YES shop today who had been told during a phone call from Better Together that as of 19th September if Scotland votes YES her passport and driving licence would be “invalid” and she would lose her disability payments. I have put her in touch with a newspaper
Ahh,so the polls are for papers hardly anyone reads in Scotland.
@Juan P – How many versions of the Sun coming out tomorrow? Two front pages.
I did like the AYE cloud.
Re. the ‘apparent’ support for Naw. I popped in to Slabour HQ last night, at the back of 7pm, in a fairly central Edinburgh location. The place was deserted, apart from three very bored looking ‘helpers’. Zero activity.
Make of that what you will.
Was thinking about this in the shower after I had a chat with my Dad about it, and I’m pretty sure, whether or not it actually happened, it is an attempt to convince people that a No vote is such a certainty and get people therefore to vote No and get on the winning side.
As you said, it is a well documented psychological effect, and it would hardly be the first time dirty tricks have been employed in this referendum.
James Caithness
I can tell you where the no voters are….deeside
Could someone please answer me this – Why would all these extra folk register then vote no settling for the same old same old or worse? I know a few and they have done it to vote yes!
They didn’t bother voting before because there was nothing worth voting for. I don’t see or hear a 50/50 split in real life.
I can’t believe it’s a true reflection, so why, surely it’s not just to give the yes folk a nice surprise on Friday when votes are counted.
Thanks so much for this site it has been an inspiration and allowed things to be shared with people that are not as clued up as you guys or as internet/computer savy.
Thanks from a proud and now much more knowledgable YES voter.
Please keep on going after Friday.
Plenty no voters Edinburgh and no violence please we are better than that.
@Brian penn – probably Braemar. I got my bus pass and snr railcard, I’ll get the train on Friday morning. Better be careful though it’s 7 can journey.
Yep 3 48% for yes what the ferk. No way just seems unrealistic.
Anybody with a name like “Titcomb” who hasn’t made use of a deed poll to change it to something else has no right to expect to be taken seriously. Writing a shabby article for the Telegraph simply compounds his problem.
No Campaign telling Sky News they are going to get 60%,BBc states No going to win
I bet the BBC talk over Big Ben again tonight. 🙂
link to newstatesman.com
What the Prof’s pol of polls looks like running into the final week
We can do this.
link to blog.whatscotlandthinks.org
Here is a re-posting from earlier today. Be of good cheer!
Even if the returns are a wee be off there is every hope of a YES.
link to radicalindependence.org
I let this be known on another thread but I think I’ll share with your here.
Two official BT canvassers (women aged about 60) in Cupar this morning, They talked to me and I asked one of them to give me just one positive reason why I should vote NO. Her first answer was ”because we’re better together”. Come on no soundbites give me one positive answer.
”Because we have a huge problem with the muslims in this country”. said she.
Well done all who turned up at the Battery Park Greenock tonight!
Brilliant effort
Don’t know if anyone can post some pics
GavB at 8.34:
I agree that all WBBs should be handed out. They are worth at least one vote each in my experience – last week 3 WBBs handed out would almost certainly have led to votes and a chance of two more from pals of one of the recipients.
Since then I’ve been working with my ‘personal’ copy and the Wee Cards with pretty hopeful results. This afternoon on Byres Road I parted with my dog-eared copy to a girl who was YES but whose granny would be persuaded if she saw the arguments substantiated in print.
Worth their weight in votes, Rev.
Watching Foulkes trying justify the Unionist’s promises of vote NO for jam in January, but not having a clue what kind or how much.
Sitting here wishing Linda Fabiani would say to him, ‘Trust me with ten thousand pounds of your money, George, and I promise I’ll give you something nice in January’. I’m sure he would have agreed to that. Aye, right.
Coming back to the polls. Let’s generally agree that there is roughly a 33% hard core No vote and similarly for the yes side.
Now consider this, these figures are based on previous voting patterns, i.e. the hard core No are tories and the more extreme right wing such as the OO.
The Yes side 33% is primarily SNP with a smattering of disillusioned and Libdem supporters.
However, all these figures are based on typical turnouts of between 50 and 60%.
They are now worth jack shit, the turnout will be over 80% and as I believe most likely over 90%. Where are all these new voters going to side with?
I don’t know but will make a guess, we all know the tories always got their vote out, I’d guess most of these new voters are not tories.
Look around and you can see the support for Yes, many, many of these are people who have never voted before and they are on the side of a Yes vote.
Despite what the polls conducted online or by landline say, I believe these people have never been asked their view or had na opportunity to express an opinion.
Now that they have and have found their voice. They will say YES.
@James Caithness
Seriously what are you thinking about? Get a grip of yourself.
”
James Caithness says:
16 September, 2014 at 9:55 pm
I am surprised that Dimbleby is being fair and giving our FM the courtesy his position deserves.”
James, I believe that David knows the game is up. Going through the motions is all they can do now.
My suspicions in relation to this were confirmed when I gazed upon the crumpled coupon of Bri (toodleoothenoo, the big boy Huw is here to do your job) chubby braces.
He knows.
Ladbrokes has a Turnout over 80% and Yes wins at 7/1. Up until last night they also had a Yes share of vote over 60% at 12/1 on thier referendum specials, though they wouldn’t let you bet over a fiver on that, that’s now suspended.
They also have two of the same bet with different odds, which I don’t really understand tbh, and that is Turnout over 80% and Yes wins @9/2 and @8/1
I am half expecting the sun to brick it and not make a call. They can’t afford to yes boycott if they go no (and it would stick in Murdoch’s craw), but I would expect their instinct is to follow the polls so will find it hard to go yes.
In a very recent Primary election for Republican Congress,(US congress is similar to House of Commons) which is very very conservative, the second highest ranking Member was assured by polls that he was ahead of his primary rival by 30%.
Eric Canter, so cocky and sure of himself he didn’t even bother to be in his home district for the election.
He lost by 10% sending the entire US Media and Polling apparatus into absolute shock!!!
The only poll that matters happens on Thursday. All the Kings resources and all the Kings men, cannot put broken media back to relevance again.
Oh ferque. I’ve got a tenner on Yes and another tenner on more than 55% Yes votes(both wirh Betfair). Can they pay out now please – I’m confident, and I need a couple of good bottles of malt for the wee small hours on Friday!
Anyone know anything about the SSP/Drumchapel situation earlier this evening?
@ Dave McEwan Hill
bet 365 are 9/1 for over 55% so ladbrokes 11/2 seems a bit stingy
Additional, if the sun do back one side, the other will instantly say they are glad as they don’t want to the associated with the phone hacking n’er do wells of the most odious element of Murdoch’s empire.
Ian MacDonald,
I guess that they are expecting a result in the low 50’s as they are offering 25/1 for 60.01% and over.
Trying to pull in some money. I may go for it.
Lunch at no.10 must have been good (peerage for afters?) The SNP are now the ‘Seriously Nasty Party’, tomorrow’s daily mail.
3 polls all 48% yes to 52# no..
I smell a fix coming