Wings Over Scotland

As a non-Scot, there are days I just want to bang my head against a wall at how many folk here lack confidence in their ability to govern themselves.
 
Stockholm syndrome is well & truly alive amongst a vast majority of the Scottish public. 
 
 

Actually, the main example we have of taxing and spending is Westminster. Maybe one conclusion to draw is that when people are invited to think about what happens with tax and spend powers, it is the Westminster experience that dominates the imagination.

As just posted then saw this new, more relevant thread…
Yes, all polls out of date. Jeez the first, largest 10k one was carried out between February and 9th May (ergo 4-7 months out of date) with the most recent telephone one already a month out of date.
 Series lack of information on the methodology too. Looks very much like Yougov (seriously out of date A and B ones) with weighting almost definitely to the 2010 UKGE for the indy poll results and VI. Ergo, meaningless. The other one on the Scottish parliament (C) most likely is MORI telephone with no indy question.

and a breathtaking 50% offered only a blank look when asked their view of Lib Dem frontman Willie Renee
 
and a breathtaking only 50% offered a blank look when asked their view of Lib Dem frontman Willie Rennie
——————————
 
I’ve sorted that for you, Rev.

It is a puzzle.  We all suffer a bit from ‘it’s aye been’ syndrome, because change upsets things, and it looks as if Lord Ashcroft has mined this seam to a considerable degree. The fact is, the move from the present constitutional soup to self determination will be complex (cf Willie Rennie, ‘think of all the paperwork!’) and it is easy for people to be blocked the thought of the process before they get behind it to consider the real issue which is the principle of self-determination itself.  As this site has highlighted before, people seem to be comfortable with the idea of running their own affairs until it is called independence.  However, once the principle is appreciated, the complexities of the process of transformation simply become issues to be dealt with.
Because Better Together has the advantage of the inertia of ‘it’s aye been’, Yes has to highlight the principle of self-determination, allay fears about the process and instill confidence that the practice is within our capacity.  As others have pointed out, the most effective way of doing that is through personal contact. No-one said it was going to be easy!
 

“Those figures are very hard to rationalise. We’ve found that the public trusts its Holyrood MSPs considerably more than their Scottish counterparts at Westminster, yet a large chunk of the electorate thinks that giving those MSPs more power will result in a spectacular level of incompetence that would see taxation, borrowing and spending all rise yet result in worse public services. Huh?”
 
Simple – people STILL think Scotland is subsidised by England. As a result, they think we need to raise taxes just to keep the same level of services.
 
This is exactly why Devo Max is not on the ballot paper, and why unionist parties will never give us anything approaching it. The second Scots realise we’re perfectly capable of funding everything by ourselves, support for the union will utterly collapse.
 
“Oh, so wur nae too poor efter a’? Fuck this union shite, then.”

My question of this poll would be how was it conducted ? It seems the questions were complicated and unless your interested in politics would be hard to answer immediately. Therefor if the poll was conducted over the phone your gonna get people just answering on the hoof without rational thought. 

This is why it is so important that people attend the Independence Rally. A large turnout will give substance to the belief that it is possible for Scotland to be a stand-alone entity in the world. It will help counter the ‘fear’ factor.
Ofcourse extensive coverage in the MSM would be beneficial too.

There is an interesting look at this ‘poll’ on Bright Green, on Peter Bells Scoop it site.

The fact that Johann Lamont was found to be more popular than Alex Salmond should tell us all we need to know about this poll.

 
For Feb-May, referendum voting intentions were;
 
Yes: 26%
No: 65%
 
For June, referendum voting intentions were;
 
Yes: 32%
No: 57%
 
There seems to be no figures for the Aug poll. 
 
Even these polls by Lord Ashcroft show the gap narrowing from 39% to 25% in a matter of a few months. 

Difficult to know what to make of this. If accurate then earlier you gov polling is right and the referendum is lost and we are all stuffed.
But I cannot believe that the cause is lost and that is not just wishful thinking. I do not know how representative my area is but there are a lot of don’t knows with opinion split evenly between yes and no with a slight bias in favour of yes in all honesty – this is my street stall experience. But that is only one area.
Ashcroft’s poll does point to a chronic lack of political education among voters but SLAB and Bitter Together will be delighted that this is the case. They need ignorance and lack of engagement to win. It will bother them not one whit that recognition for Lamont, Davidson and Rennie is so low.  
What is really depressing is the possibility that the SLAB narrative of the Scottish government not focusing on “everyday priorities” could be gaining traction because people do not seem to have made the connection in their head that the best chance of improvements in the “everyrday priorities” of education, health and above all employment come with….the potential of independence!! That link needs to be built in the Scottish consciousness.
The Scottish cringe would seem to be there as you suggest Stuart and it is tough to give people self esteem when they have never had it. The Unionists will love that though, because they are content with Scottishness being defined in the context of a shortbread tin image, a 90 minute spasm at Hampden and “you cannae dae it” attitude. 
My worry is that if No wins and when the cuts coming down the line in 2016/17 kick in and the housing bubble bursts along with rising inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile the rUK debt burden becomes unsustainable to the extent that there is a “bond-apocalypse” and an rUK economic collapse, Scots will then have plenty of time to think “What the f*** have I done”….But too late we will all be British then because we voted to be so didn’t we?

@Ron.
 
A No vote is not the end of History !
Do you really think that we shall all just curl up and die? 
The struggle shall continue. If there is a no vote it shall be marginal and a result of the appalling negativity we are bombarded with daily. We shall have been cheated !
Hail Alba

AS a number of posters have already mentioned, the key is normalization of support for independence. You can discuss facts and figures with someone until you are blue in the face, and still that person may not be persuaded.  However if that person  notices that many people are already turning to YES, then he/she will make an effort to find out the facts for themselves.  It’s no use just believing that only a small minority will behave like sheep.  Human history (and behavioural biology) run counter to that argument.  Voting YES has to appear like a popular, natural choice.
The facts are out there, noone has to dig deep to find them, not really.  But they won’t search unless they want to.  They won’t listen to the strong arguments unless they want to.  The trick is to persuade people that YES is a sensible, popular, sane option. 
The fact that a flurry  of opinion poll reults favouring NO suddenly came out after one more favourable to YES was no accident.  The fact that a huge MSM effort was made to rubbish the WoS/ Panelbase poll was no accident.
BT are well aware that the YES campaign must not be allowed to gain any traction whatsoever.  If YES support is seen by the public to start growing, then it’s all over.  With not real facts on their side, and no real reason to stay in the union, BT have to play their single trump card – voting YES is silly, voting YES is not popular, only a minority of “challenged” people will vote YES.  Delivering opinion poll results that show YES in trouble, or stalled is an important part of the BT narrative.
There are two effective ways to counter this –
1) Release any poll results that show YES starting to climb, or at least challenge those favourable to NO (as often as possible).
2) YES supporters stand up and be counted – start talking to people, and PLEASE get those YES boards and badges on display at any opportunity!  Engage.
 

Luigi
 
I think that is right, the poll that showed Yes in front really rattled the No camp. They have decided to play negative and they know that if that tactic starts to fail and people move away from the negative position it is well nigh impossible to switch tactics to turn things around. Every time there is a glimmer of light their darkness will descend with as much force as they can muster. However, the more light there is the harder it becomes to darken it and the campaigning has to become more negative and more repellant to boot.

I do think a lot of this stuff is generational and there is a cohort of older voters that simply do not have the capability to assimilate the world view of a ‘normalised’ Independence.  But they won’t live forever.  I don’t know if we will win in 2014.  I do know that if we lose then, we win later.  Where is Rome? Where is Austria Hungary, Where is the Romanov empire.  Gone with the wind and blowing by in stour.  Patience

” We send 9,9%, and receive back only 9.3% – of what? Tell that on the doorstep and people will simply roll their eyes.The data needs to be worked down to “in your pocket” figures.
Trident annual running costs of £2billion (?) are billed entirely to Scotland? 
Of Scotland’s population of 5.3 million, say 2 million are taxpayers? So £2,000 million divided by 2 million suggests that £1000 of income tax from each taxpayer goes to paying for Trident?
Seems an unlikely figure but what is the correct one? Pointless to divide by 5.3 million since not every men woman and child pay income tax.
As a tax payer I would like to know just where my tax dollar, to use a USA expression, goes and what reductions would be applicable in the event of Devomax with Scotland paying strictly a proportionate sum per %age population. And secondly in the event of independence whereby Scotland would contribute to agreed shared ventures, e.g. embassies.
Trident? Westminster H of Commons and H of Lords? Foreign embassies? Armed forces? Royal family? Oh and assets arising in a country being creditted to that country so no ex-regio oil and gas revenue circumventing Scotland and creditted to the Treasury.Generated power?
i recall Wendy Alexander warning us all that an SNP government at Hollyrood would cost each family £500 per year.In the event it is more likely that the SNP in power has saved each family £500 per year.Danny Alexander that independence would cost each Scot £1 per year.And now Osborne tempting us with an extra income of £2000 spread over 30 years.
If Better Together can do these sums it is time the Yes campaign provided data likewise for we doorstep campaigners.Just ensure that the calculations are credible, 

And aye, Mr Ashcroft has been nice in demonstrating that No has dropped 8 points with yes having risen 5 points since the spring of 2013.

Talking about wasted billions, which the Labour Party excel at, don’t forget their PFI schemes which throw public money by the lorry load into an endless dark pit. Also a gift from Labour is the chronic self destructive negativity where everything is shite and success treated as suspicion. Take for example our new road bridge across the Forth. In other countries they celebrate large engineering achievements such as spectacular bridges in France and Denmark, huge solar arrays in Spain, experimental hydrogen power plants in Italy, CERN in Switzerland and the amazing airport hubs of SE Asia. But in Scotland, once world renowned for our engineering, we get wholesale negativity over the first major bridge to be built in the country since the 1960s. Oh and if Labour were to sanction the new Forth bridge it would gave been under a PFI scheme and ended up costing four times as much as it does now.
 
There needs to be a real concerted examination of Labour in Scotland over the past 40 years because quite frankly if they were a company they would have drowned under decades worth of negligence claims against them. It’s not that Scotland or its people that are shite, it’s Labour in Scotland that’s utter shite and they’ve always wanted everyone to be dragged down into the dung heap with them (that’s what they mean by equality folks). The 1979 election broke the Labour Party and they’ve remained broken ever since.

Article on results from poll being a lie.
link to brightgreenscotland.org

WoS have started crowd-funding opinion polls that BT cannot control.  And worse, they are doing it deliberately!  How terrible.

Lord Ashcroft on Scotland’s people’s feelings about Trident;
 
link to banthebomb.org

Some of that may be coming from the fact that Scotland does have 3 largely terrible, wasteful, useless parties (Labour, Tory, Lib Dem) and voters are judging politics as a whole, rather than the politics they currently have, or may be likely to get. I’ve hammered on this before, but I think the dominant feeling in the UK electorate lies in a desire to find some mechanism for uncorruptability… that is, that they can have any certainty about the future not being degraded by typical political process, that people will rule on the things they campaign on, and campaign on the things they actually believe.
I don’t think it’s the “Scottish Cringe”, as such, more Scots are part of the world wide rejection of belief that the internet and modern experience naturally leads too; a sort of “Och they say that now”. The polls showing that people believe “Westminster is more important.” could be being read by the Scots electorate not just as a statement of legal fact, but also a generalised suspicion that “This is how big boy politics is done, sadly”; that it’s more important because it’s more illustrative, tells you the big things, and that once Hollyrood becomes de facto dominant, becomes the Big Boy, this is the sort of politics it leads too. That having control of a military budget leads to wanting to launch a lot of wars because you are bribed by the Military-Industrial Complex… They like current MSPs because they are “pure”. They don’t perhaps think anyone can stay that way with true power.
Exposure to the wider world can also lead to a fortress mentality, a doubling down on stupidity like the US Christian/Militia Right has when faced with contrasting viewpoints; I haven’t seen that except in isolated Scots Nationalists… it’s more a xenophobic’s addiction. However I do suspect the folks here are missing the real rot… After all, under a United Kingdom our Government is still, for now, yours too and the disillusionment has spread wide to all it touches. I believe the “No” votes are probably coming from a disengagement with  politics, not the passionate engagement people here have. 
And so, the solution to breaking into the persuadable “No” group would be to address the wider structures; what that would be, when Lib Dems can sign unbreakable pledges that they then break, I’m not sure. (One reason I want to grab our politicians by the throat and scream “Don’t you fuckers know what you’re doing to Democracy? Don’t you even care?!”) A simplified list of all the powers already available to MSPs maybe, and how they’ve been fairly and consistently used… that Scotland already does more than perhaps you realised, and our politics haven’t been corrupted?
But get that belief in Hollyrood and not in Westminster (as we all know it’s not) and I think you’ll see people break to Independence. As it currently stands, without certainty, a sense of being able to trace, plan for, believe in something different from Westminster, well people aren’t uninformed… they just don’t care any more. Especially when Scottish Labour isn’t seen as dead forever yet; maybe a lot of Scots don’t want to risk them coming back and breaking their caring hearts all over again.
Cowardly? Maybe. But also pragmatic. Unfortunately.

@Robert Kerr
 
Quite right.  Any gentleman’s agreement to have the referendum settle the matter for a generation is a contract already well and truly violated by the alarming disregard for the democratic process displayed by a compliant MSM.  How can any pro-indy supporter honour such a commitment when we have not only seen the oil lies of the 70s repeated but many more of similar or greater magnitude perpetrated also.
 
Indeed we would, I suggest, be failing in our duty of care to democracy itself were we not to persist until there is a result from a truly informed Scottish electorate.
 If we lose, this will become all the more apparent when the ‘jam tomorrow = devolution roll-back’, ‘Economic recovery = mini-property reheat bubble making Britains TED even worse’, ‘modernising of NHS = destroying NHS’, ‘financial sector regulation = even more scams to sate the mindless hunger of the greed class for the money of the genuine wealth creating population’, ‘North Sea Oil and gas estimates are revised upwards and further discoveries are made off Scotland’s west coast’ and many other truths become apparent.
 
In short, the behaviour of the MSM has long since abrogated any such obligation pro-indy supporters may have felt they had in this regard.
 
 
 

 
The Ashcroft poll on Trident is interesting, because it did ask the referendum question.
 
This poll was conducted over 29th April – 2nd May 2013, interviewing 1236 adults. The result was;
 
Yes: 30%
No: 56%
Would not vote: 2%
Don’t know: 12%
 
A No lead of 26%, which is comparable with other polls of that period
 
We were all surprised at the time that Lord Ashcroft was claiming that Scots supported the replacement of Trident, so it interesting to know where the headline No lead of 40% comes from the bigger Feb-May poll.  That does seem an equally strange result.
 
One thing for sure you don’t have to dig deep in all of these polls to find anomalies. The value of polls and the methodologies employed by pollsters are certainly open to question and criticism. I doubt the pollsters now will find it easy to convince people of their merit in this referendum. 

Only thing I’d mention is, a heck of a lot of people (mostly young folk) I speak to ask – ‘But how will we pay for it?’ (it being all the infrastructure of an independent country.) They don’t seem to make the connection that we already do pay for it, more than our fair share as it happens.
 
Its almost as if by some sort of default, they forget that the money Westminster – in its infinite benevolence – gives us to pay for Scottish services was our cash to begin with. A lot of folk think that in the advent of independence, we’d somehow have to find that money all over again, they don’t realise, or make the connection, that its ours in the first place and we’d simply continue to use it with out filtering it through a sticky-fingered UK treasury.
 
I think that is partially why people think services would cost more, that they’d get worse – as said – is all down to lack confidence in ourselves and I think mostly the politicians who offer themselves up for office.

@velofello
I agree with your comment at 10:22am. I get annoyed at the SNP and Yes representatives when being questioned on TV. The same old question comes up time and time again “Where is the money coming from?” and they go on about the tax imbalance. Fair enough the sums of cash might be greater but the ordinary punter would understand as answer like as you explained “Trident there is two (billion?) right away what could we spend that on” I am sure that there are dozens of other examples like that which mean much more to ordinary punters than tax percentages which seem somewhat abstract to a lot of folk. I know I was one of them!

Gordoz
 
Prof Curtice has reviewed this over at ThinkScotland and he is not impressed. Says at the end that it is a pity Ashcroft didn’t “get more bang for his mega bucks”.

I agree with Handshrimp – ‘Every time there is a glimmer of light their darkness will descend with as much force as they can muster’ .
And it works to a certain extent when it brings all but the most optimistic down. The British establishment have 100’s of years of experience in control, they know what they are doing. That’s what makes the likes of JL and Anas S so despicable, why are they doing it?
But sites such as these keep us going and in the end the only poll that matters is the one in September 2014. 
I have great admiration for Alex Salmond as he bears the brunt of all of this negativity.
Another reason I think is that a lot of DKs or soft No’s don’t realise the really good job the SG does in difficult circumstances and think they will be able to continue to protect us from Westminster, hence stating that the majority would still vote in the SNP for Holyrood.

Wasn’t it the SNP Government that reopened the railway between Airdrie and Bathgate both on time and on budget? Admittedly, stations at Drumgelloch, Caldercruix and Armadale weren’t opened until after the fact due to weather, but even the SNP can’t be blamed for bad weather, even if Labour were to claim that they could.
And Rev, if you don’t mind me asking, what do you think the outcome of the referendum will be? Do you think that the Scottish people will choose independence or union?

If [hopefully] the UK economy continues to show signs of sustained improvement a challenge will be for the Scottish Government to demonstrate their policies ensured this recovery despite the Westminster austerity policy.
 
The issues of cost of living increases and wage freezes / low pay (a recovery not in people’s pockets) as well as a question mark over whether there has been any fundamental change to the UK economy (still heavily reliant on City of  London, SE property bubble and consumer spending through debt) still exist.  To me the Scottish economy on its own could carry less of this risk.  I would rather have a resource and manufacturing based economy than a speculative, consumer spending one any day.  The traditional financial services sector in Edinburgh is a bonus.
 
The vast majority of people see political differences between Scotland and rUK.  I hope they increasingly see that Scotland’s economic ambitions are more likely to be realised when they are 100% reflected in our own elected government’s policy.

LOL.
 
There’s a lovely direct correlation between the difference between UKGE past vote and current Holyrood VI for SNP versus gap between Yes and no.
 
This deviation has risen from ~9% in 2006 to 26% today. At the same time, the Y/N gap for Yougov has risen from a point or two to 28 points.
 
Basically, the more the SNP vote for Holyrood has deviated from UKGE vote, the greater the Y/N gap Yougov come up with and the further they are away from the rest of the pack.
 
So I was right, the more people swing to SNP at Holyrood, the lower Yougov calculate support for independence when the opposite is actually the case.
 
All because they weight to UKGE creating a flawed base.
 
That’s just quality. What numpties.
 
 
Yes, Mr Ashcroft is a typical Tory politician; always quick to piss money away on something useless.
 
I’m going to fine tune this to gap from other pollsters to reduce noise, although an r2 of 0.65 is damn good.

When Scottish_Skier eventually puts down his thoughts about the indyref polling, I suspect it’s going to be the most must-read article in the history of Wings Over Scotland.
 
Get it written, man! Stop teasing us with comments 😛

Voting NO basically means we are voting against ourselves.
That we couldn’t make a better job of things..
It’s remarkable what years of brainwashing and a hostile media can do.
 
I agree that info needs presented in a simpler way.
Eg Norway’s oil fund could buy x number of schools, hospitals, forth bridges etc.
Scotland’s oil fund under the union could buy: 0
 

Though this stuff is largely out of date it still underlines the basics.
The key is “informed”. 
Most people in Scotland would like to vote YES. I have no doubt about that.
What we have to do is establish in the general consciousness that Scotland is comfortably self supporting and we win. I am absolutely certain that informed opinion is moving towards us and won’t move away. I am also absolutely certain that if uninformed or misinformed opinion is aware of that the smart gutys are with us they will move our way as well.
I’m sure the YES camp is aware of this.
If we establish that we are self supporting
If we establish that clever and well informed people are supporting Yes
if we establish that we are continually being lied to
if we establish that less and less people are swallowing the lies and only the stupid people are believing the lies…..( There is nothing that moves a person more than a realisation that he or she is being taken for a fool)
we win
Time enough yet

Doug Daniel
 
I see you said exactly the same thing as me more succintly in an earlier post

So far all arguments have been of the flavour “What we want is” or the Union side demanding “Tell us how…”. At some point the YES campaign are going to start lobbing the nasty bombs…its all well and good being positive but public apathy is so bad some of them seem to believe the current situation is actually acceptable and better than anything else on offer.

@Jamie Arriere
Don’t forget the annual upkeep of Westminster.
Thanks for the fact on the cost of trident. £163m could pay for an awful lot of public services.
I agree that a comprehensive list of savings with figures would be a handy tool for arguing our case.
 
 

“It will bother them not one whit that recognition for Lamont, Davidson and Rennie is so low.”

Actually It has to be  to their advantage while there are still so many “I’m voting no because I don’t like Alex Salmond” Now if they were to actually be comparing him to the alternatives what would their conclusion be?

@Chic McGregor
 
 
Quite right.  Any gentleman’s agreement to have the referendum settle the matter for a generation is a contract already well and truly violated by the alarming disregard for the democratic process displayed by a compliant MSM.  How can any pro-indy supporter honour such a commitment when we have not only seen the oil lies of the 70s repeated but many more of similar or greater magnitude perpetrated also.
 
Unfortunately the SNP have gone out their way to support this pledge.  I have no idea why they are being so nice and fair about it, given the relentlessly biased MSM coverage of the referendum.   

Regarding PFI, to get an idea of the sheer waste of money involved here, have a look at this spreadsheet. [PFI current projects list March 2012]
link to data.gov.uk
 
First look at Column R (the total capital cost of any project)
Then add up the list of payments in the columns to the right. It will make your eyes water
 
For those who cannot view it, one example
Perth & Kinross Schools : Project cost £136m
Total cost of payments up to 2042 £630,7m !!!
 
The Scottish Government is already making progress on this via the Scottish Futures Trust
 
link to snp.org

Jamie Arriere says:
dont forget the very successful illegal wars
 
Iraq            Campaign (failure)
Afghanistan Campaign (failure)
 

+ Air traffic control computers system : Swanwick Fiasco (6yrs late)

@Ken Johnston
“Should have said, Re ‘Getting information on exports, products Scotland makes and exports, is  hard.’ because it’s all UK UK UK.”
 
Yes, you are right.  The biggy is in regard to food and drink production.
 
The UK has to net import half the food and drink it needs.  This is a massive, massive, inbuilt trade deficit.  An annual ‘grocery bill’ which far outstrips all the far more widely known  North Sea earnings.
 
It is usually mired in a cloud of accountancy obscuration in government reports where focus is placed on the ‘value added’ aspect.
 
If you dig deeply enough, you can get raw produce figures which more closely reflect reality i.e. which would best indicate an independent  Scotland’s prospective.
 
When you do you will find that Scotland is more than self-sufficient in net food and drink production.  The massive grocery bill deficit is all down to the over population (in  food and drink terms) of England.  England has around 3 times the population density of China.
 
However, in terms of ‘value added’ the discrepency in real production levels per head  between Scotland and England is down played and obscured.
 
Generally speaking, Scottish raw produce is exported to England where it is packaged and redistributed from centres usually around the ‘midlands’ (i.e. south of even the median latitude for England).  The produce thus accrues a value 3-4 times more than what was paid for it.  Value added is counted as the wages of the workforce, profits for the owners and the tax take associated with that and the value of exports from there accrue to the UK treasury with the value added component of GDP being assigned to England.
 
Even if you buy something labelled Scottish produce in a Scottish situated supermarket it is likely that it has travelled that route with something like 75% of what you pay being counted as English earnings.  Basically, we are selling at x and buying it back at 4x.
 
This is a scenario which makes little sense for Scotland even as part of the Union.  In an independent Scotland, although change would not be immediate, it is difficult to envisage a situation where the repatriation of value added would not naturally occur.  The commercial possibilities for Scottish entrepreneurs, the value of jobs and revenue for a Scottish economy in terms of jobs and export value and even the distribution logistics from a Scottish perspective would be compelling for both commerce and government.
 
To what extent and at what pace this would happen is not easy to predict with precision but there would IMV eventually be a repatriation of value added to GDP of many billions of pounds, quite possibly exceeding oil revenue in value.  (And a further significant worsening of England’s inbuilt deficit).
 
The problem, from a campaign stance, is that this is a complex message to try to get across, even if we had a fair and free media.
 
 
 
 
 
 

Ivan McKee says:
9 September, 2013 at 12:14 pm

@ velofello and others
Now that is clever – never thought of putting it that way.
Nearly everyone I come across generally has positive opinions of Scandanavia; but counters with … but we can’t do that ’cause its expensive in taxes and the oil will run out in 20 yrs time …. seriously what a crazy arguement; we’ll be to poor 20yrs from now and with Status Quo at leaset we know taxes will always be low ? 
Has anyone got a calculation of lost revenue to Scottish Coffers since the first discovery ? Well could this not be classed as a form of unrepresented taxation ?

O/T sorry but Anas Sarwar is on Daily Politics now – clearly still in with the in crowd despite his performance last week on that debate

eva – more likely BECAUSE of last week, not despite it!

@Muttley
“What we are seeing at the moment is a sustained effort to try to demoralise Yes supporters.”
 
Yes – this is nothing other than a co-ordinated propaganda attack by the MSM/BT (for they are one and the same) for that very purpose, and for the purpose of herding the don’t knows/soft No’s into the perceived ‘majority’.
 
Recent events have shown that, if nothing else, no one has any excuses for being under any misapprehensions about the nature of the ‘Scottish’ media.

I would have expected far more noise to have been made about the 40 point gap (25:65) in the vote. Is this because BT are getting really worried by No complacancy now that the referendum is “won”?

@ Doug Daniel – not quite as evasive today as he was last week, didn’t get any cuttings this time

Have a peek at Scoop.it page on the referendum run by Peter Bell and look for the Brightgreenscotland.org link might cheer us all up

“Scottish people want a lot more control over their own affairs. They just think that when they get it, they’ll make a mess of it.” 
I don’t for one moment think that is a correct interpretation. I think a better analysis is that when your average Scot thinks about politics, which in reality is not a lot, they think the SNP is doing such a good job running Scotland with current powers that all is more or less well in the country. And while “a lot more control over their own affairs” would be desirable, (who wouldn’t agree with that?) those are just trite words if not backed up by strong concrete reasons for taking the big, big step to Independence. It really is up to the YES campaign and the SNP to make a much stronger case as to why Independence would be better.

The sudden appearance of very old, dubious opinion poll results and MSM behaviour indicates that panic has taken hold of BT.  Not blind panic yet, but already very short-sighted!  It is clear that a regular dose of favourable opinion polls is a major plank of BT strategy.  Take that away and voting YES becomes not such a rare, unpopular action.  BT appear to be puting maximum effort into maintaining poll results that deny any momentum for YES.  When a single poll result challenged the BT/MSM narrative, a nervous, knee-jerk reaction revealed just how  worried they are.
 
Keep the pressure on!  I think that opinion polls will be used increasingly by both sides during the next year.  The results will become even more ridiculous.  We do have to play this game however, in order to unsettle BT/MSM and deny them a free run in their blatant attempt to manipulate public opinion.

I’m actually thankful to Lord Ashcroft.
 
He’s essentially given me another 2 Yougov polls to add to my collection, filling in some blanks.
 
Yougov were the only one not clearly showing a drop in No over 2013. They now do! A huge one too; down ~10% with Yes up a few%, meaning while they are way out on their own in terms of absolute values due to the dodgy weighting, they’re following the same trends as all the others. Nice.
 
I suspect this one hasn’t made much news because it’s too old.
 
Why are they using old polls? Probably because increasingly the most recent ones are not showing good news for the union.
 
 

S_S: “Why are they using old polls? Probably because increasingly the most recent ones are not showing good news for the union.”
 
Got it in one. Which just makes you wonder – what lengths will they take to try and hide the turning tide in the future?

 
link to businessforscotland.co.uk

What really annoys me is that the media are trumpeting this poll with all their might.  I wake up to my clock radio telling me that “Salmond’s dreams of breaking up Britain are in tatters”, and I pass a newsagent’s billboard announcing that Scots reject separation (but back the SNP).  No reservations at all about giving it the front-page treatment.
 
Then we discover that the headline figures are about six months old, and that the data have been cruelly tortured in contravention of all known UN conventions to get the headline results being showcased.  If anything at all might be taken from this dog’s breakfast of figures, it’s that the Yes vote has been climbing steadily and substantially for the past six months.  But basically the methodology is a mess.
 
Still they headline it.  While refusing to mention the WoS poll because (a) we were all on holiday (b) one of your questions might have been a wee tad leading (c) you mentioned space monsters!
 
Gimme a break.

So a Tory Pier of the realm with an alleged history of personal tax avoidance in excess of £3.4m, releases a poll which lacks any scientific rigor and which suggests more Scots trust JoLo than the First Minister, even though 40% or respondents had never heard of her. All you need now is a compliant MSM and the ‘cringe’ is re-invigorated. Democracy British style, simples.
 
For those who may have missed it at the end of a thread, I found this more up-to-date poll on where the elusive ‘+ve’ case for the Union might be found. Perhaps the same methodology was applied?
link to unicornsbarfrainbows.com

G H Graham
it may take many more years of the effects of a stagnant economy to help turn opinion in our favour.
 
It may be too late by then, the damage could be irreversible.

 
cynicalHighlander 
Thanks for this link:
Good stuff.
 

OT, but coming back to the ‘Brave’ cash being better spent alleviating a Tory tax on the poor/disabled initiated by Labour and which they haven’t said they’d repeal…
 
link to bbc.co.uk
 
Pixar’s Brave forecast to generate £120m in five years

muttley79

 
If a UN team were to come here, do a study, and publish a report saying exactly this, who would report it.  No question mark, rhetorical question!

Our mountain is best ascended from the shores of Loch Positivity, where parking is available and which gives an advantage of a few hundred metres over the alternative route via Glen Bitter. The path is faint in places and makes for an occasionally punishing ascent, while care must be taken to avoid the extensive Bogs of Scaremongering on the way up. The view from the summit is, however, well worth the effort – a spectacular panorama of Scotland’s place in the world.
 
All right; I’ve taken that too far…

 Climbing Suilven by Norman MacCaig

I nod and nod to my own shadow and thrust
A mountain down and down.
Between my feet a loch shines in the brown,
It’s silver paper crinkled and edged with rust.
My lungs say No;
But down and down this treadmill hill must go.

Parishes dwindle. But my parish is
This stone, that tuft, this stone
And the cramped quarters of my flesh and bone.
I claw that tall horizon down to this;
And suddenly
My shadow jumps huge miles away from me.

Used this quote in three different ways on the Herald comments about the poll, each was deleted, all my other posts published as usual.
“The figures they claim represent what Scots think ought to be the government’s priorities exclude every single person who said the Scottish Government does have the right priorities.”
I didn’t mention the website or author it came from in the last post, still deleted!
The figures they claim represent what Scots think ought to be the government’s priority exclude every single person who said the Scottish Government does have the right priority. – See more at: link to brightgreenscotland.org

Great shot of Calton Hill.

Would be good to have another taken at around 14.00 on 21st!

And play ‘Spot The Difference!
 
You mean, like this?

http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-numbers-game/

@BuckieBraes
 
Stay well clear of the Forest of Fear!

And the Brocken Spectre appears in the form of Alistair Darling!

Looking at last year’s rally photos, how good was that turnout?  Given that there was almost zero publicity in the media etc.

How about growdfunding a profit and loss account exercise with the items then costed per Scottish taxpayer? Shouldn’t cost much.Presented as line items for use when out campaigning.There are several categories;
The current charges and non-assigned earnings-Trident,defence charges,national grid charges,ex regio oil and gas income from Scottish waters, upkeep of the Houses Common and Lords etc
Past incurred liabilities, as listed by James Arriere – PFi,Nimrod,BBC IT scheme etc.
Lost opportunities, reference the excellent recent blog on scottish exports credited to the UK, and the response above from Chris MaGregor on food and drink. We export the raw materials, England packages and returns to Scotland priced up, just like the good old empire days importing from India, Ceylon, etc.
@ Ian Brotherhood, keep me a seat for tonight! I don’t think I spoke to you at the Horseshoe bar, maybe can tonight.

Looking at last year’s rally photos, how good was that turnout?  Given that there was almost zero publicity in the media etc.
 
Stu was worried it would be bad publicity because we’d be mocked if the turnout was poor.  It quite obviously exceeded the organisers’ wildest dreams.  The Ross Bandstand was significantly overfilled, and there were as many again in the gardens above and to the side (that photo doesn’t let you appreciate the width of the carriageway along the top, and that was packed).

I think they estimated maybe 5,000 if they were lucky, thought a top safety limit might be 7,000, and got close on 10,000.  It was quite hard to move around inside the bandstand area, and people were climbing over the fence at the back to get in.  It wasn’t a squeeze, it wasn’t Hillsborough, but the area was well above capacity.

The original plan was to have this year’s at the same venue, but that obviously had to be jettisoned when they saw how many they got.  No way could that venue have taken many more.  So we’re on the hill instead.

Of course the unionists played down the turnout, even describing it as “a personal humiliation for Salmond” although he had nothing to do with it and only appeared as a guest speaker for about three minutes.  The press, shamefully, went along with that rather than using the evidence of their own eyes.  But those of us who were there know how good it was.

Let’s have three times that number this month.

An opinion poll so accurate even the dreaded BBC haven’t used it yet.
So a tory polls various polls and gets the sort of results that unionists want re the referendum, what a coincidence, why do I get the feeling that when we have the full details they will make interesting reading?

@Morag
 
Take a moment and behold.
 

@ Ken Johnston
 
Actually trade statistics info is quite readily available. Those raving cybernats over at HM Revenue & Customs produce Regional Trade statistics (trade in goods) with tables that can be downloaded.
 
This site also carried an excellent piece written by Stuart M Darling which dealt with Scotland’s exports and drew on the Global Connections Survey (started in 2002 by the Lab-LibDem coalition I believe).

Am I right in saying that we will have to wait until at least November before the publication of the White Paper on Scottish Independence.

Oops, misread the results tables. 
 
This poll has been so badly carried out it makes the data almost useless. 

@inbhir
 
Am I right in saying that we will have to wait until at least November before the publication of the White Paper on Scottish Independence.
 
Yes, although I have sure I read and interview with Nicola Sturgeon, in which it sounded as if they might delay it a bit.  However, it is scheduled to be released in November, which is only two months away now.

The battle for the “Fourth Estate” is where it will be won or lost! Keep the cartoons coming. We can all understand them!

@velofello-
It was very good indeed. I got to sit next to Nicola’s Mum! Front row too, so I couldn’t do a head-count, but sounded pretty full.

@ muttley: No there wasn’t any big revelations however I felt comfortable with the, I suppose, the homeliness of Nicola and Dennis, and the cordiality of the audience.
I’m of an age where the benefit of independence will be no more than the satisfaction of achieving independence, and that’s good enough for me. I’ll go put knocking doors and trying to encourage people to show interest and realise the benefits possible for them with independence.