The size of the task
Yesterday we ran a couple of features examining the sort of people the Yes campaign needs to convince if it’s to win the referendum in just over a year’s time, and how it might go about tackling that job. Today saw the release of a series of polls from Tory peer Lord Ashcroft that demonstrate just how big a challenge that’s going to present.
Because it’s not that the results show an electorate deeply committed to the Union (although they do suggest a large No majority, albeit from polling which was conducted as much as almost seven months ago), but because they illustrate just how little voters currently know about anything.
We’re using that sentence to mean “uninformed”, not “stupid”. But the level of that un-informedness, revealed by polling up to 12,000 people, is startling and disturbing.
The voters’ disconnection from Scottish politics is most starkly illustrated by the number who simply hadn’t heard of the Scottish Parliament’s three opposition leaders. 38% hadn’t heard of Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson, 40% hadn’t a clue who Labour’s Johann Lamont was, and a breathtaking 50% offered only a blank look when asked their view of Lib Dem frontman Willie Rennie.
The poll also found an unusually low percentage of undecided voters (just 10%), and also the lowest numbers for (any) voting intention of any we’ve seen. Panelbase weights its polling only for people saying they’re at least 8/10 likely to vote, and on that criterion the Ashcroft poll would predict a dismal turnout of only 68%.
After those figures, though, the survey starts to raise the giant logical contradictions that still lie in the collective mind of the Scottish electorate. Voters have quite a high opinion of the Scottish Parliament in general – when asked whether Holyrood or Westminster elections were more important, Westminster came out on top, but 71% of Scots felt the fledgling Parliament in Edinburgh was equally or more important compared to its dusty London predecessor.
And when it came to the representatives within those parliaments, Holyrood wins by a country mile. When asked whether their MSPs or their Scottish MPs were “more likely to be in touch and committed to their local communities?”, the Holyrood members were more trusted by an enormous margin of almost five to one (49% vs 11%).
Similarly, when asked which were “more likely to do a good job representing people like you?”, Holyrood MSPs had a more than two-to-one victory (38% to 16%), and on the negative question “which are more likely to be ‘career politicians’ who put their own interests above the people they represent?”, Westminster MPs were treated with more cynicism by almost three-to-one (31% to 12%).
So the Parliament is rated as significantly important, and its MSPs are far more trusted and respected than Scottish MPs at Westminster. You’d imagine, then, that voters would want to give it lots more power and expect good outcomes from that power. But you’d be wrong.
Poll respondents were presented with a proposal for “Devo Max”, described as transferring power for everything except defence and foreign affairs to Holyrood. Curiously they weren’t asked whether or not they were in favour of the prospect, but were asked what they thought the consequences would be.
Lord Ashcroft being a Tory, the questions were centred around tax, and delivered a bewildering and contradictory set of results. 59% of people thought taxes would rise, with only 7% expecting them to fall, and 55% thought borrowing and debt would rise, with only 10% anticipating a reduction.
Yet despite these hefty majorities predicting both higher taxes AND higher borrowing, a noticeably smaller number – 46% – thought spending would go up. We’re not sure quite where everyone else is expecting the extra money from taxation and borrowing to go. And a far lower proportion still – just 29% – expected this extra tax, borrowing and spending to result in better public services, with 25% expecting them to get worse.
Those figures are very hard to rationalise. We’ve found that the public trusts its Holyrood MSPs considerably more than their Scottish counterparts at Westminster, yet a large chunk of the electorate thinks that giving those MSPs more power will result in a spectacular level of incompetence that would see taxation, borrowing and spending all rise yet result in worse public services. Huh?
There are many other surprising findings in the polls – the extent to which a sniff of power has caused Lib Dem voters to shift to a Tory mindset despite having spent seven years in Holyrood coalition with Labour and having a manifesto far closer to the SNP’s than anyone else’s, is alarming. And Willie Rennie’s tiny band of supporters were out of line with all three other parties when it came to priorities – they were far more concerned with the economy than SNP, Labour or Tory voters, and far less concerned with the NHS.
(The other three were all more or less level on both issues.)
We might look into some more of the polls’ quirks later. But the thing that really leaps out is something we already knew, but which is confirmed here in more detail than before: Scottish people want a lot more control over their own affairs. They just think that when they get it, they’ll make a mess of it.
Part of that is doubtless down to the shambolic implementation of things like the Parliament building and the Edinburgh trams. But those alone can’t explain it – Westminster’s catastrophic handling of the abandoned NHS IT network and ID-card schemes both wasted billions of pounds, dwarfing the hundreds of millions that Holyrood and the trams went over-budget. And we’ll at least have the building and a tram service of some sort at the end of the day to show for the money, whereas the NHS IT and ID-card disasters are just cash up in smoke.
Scotland, then, is by no means unique in being able to screw up big infrastructure projects. And the SNP so far has a much better record of delivering things on time and on budget than its predecessors. No, there’s something much more insidious at work here, and it’s perhaps the only thing the anti-independence campaign can be said to have done a good job of.
Project Fear’s relentless negativity has taken its toll – the Scottish Cringe is still pitifully alive and well (and reflected in the recent Panelbase poll which dismally found that a stunning 37% of Scots didn’t think Scotland could be an independent country, despite both sides agreeing on that point).
Overcoming that ancient disease and getting Scots to believe in themselves might well be the biggest single obstacle in the path of Yes Scotland.
As a non-Scot, there are days I just want to bang my head against a wall at how many folk here lack confidence in their ability to govern themselves.
Stockholm syndrome is well & truly alive amongst a vast majority of the Scottish public.
Oh, THAT Ashcroft! There was me thinking it was Brian that was behind it. Still his people would probably come up with the same answers, wouldn’t they?
Actually, the main example we have of taxing and spending is Westminster. Maybe one conclusion to draw is that when people are invited to think about what happens with tax and spend powers, it is the Westminster experience that dominates the imagination.
@melissamurray
As a Scot I feel the same, however I don’t think it’s the vast majority of people.
The more a YES vote can be seen as perfectly normal, the more chance there is. As any other country in the world lots of people will not engage in the nitty gritty but need to feel safe, to a point, with their choice for change.
That’s why Scotland needs to be awash with YES stickers, boards, badges etc.
As just posted then saw this new, more relevant thread…
Yes, all polls out of date. Jeez the first, largest 10k one was carried out between February and 9th May (ergo 4-7 months out of date) with the most recent telephone one already a month out of date.
Series lack of information on the methodology too. Looks very much like Yougov (seriously out of date A and B ones) with weighting almost definitely to the 2010 UKGE for the indy poll results and VI. Ergo, meaningless. The other one on the Scottish parliament (C) most likely is MORI telephone with no indy question.
So why did it take Lord Ashcroft over 4 -7 months to analyse polling done between Feb and May?
Also, since May the polls show the gap between the Yes and No camps closing.
Could this be another poll that’s meant top sway opinion rather than reflect it?
Could it be that Panelbase poll showing the Yes camp for the first time in the lead has struck a unionist nerve.?
and a breathtaking 50% offered only a blank look when asked their view of Lib Dem frontman Willie Renee
and a breathtaking only 50% offered a blank look when asked their view of Lib Dem frontman Willie Rennie
——————————
I’ve sorted that for you, Rev.
There will be a ‘poll’ released the day before the indpendence rally showing support for independence even lower. Then a ‘poll’ will be released just after the publication of the White Paper showing that 101 per cent of Scots are unconvinced by the WP.
Why do we exercise ourselves over this crud?
It is a puzzle. We all suffer a bit from ‘it’s aye been’ syndrome, because change upsets things, and it looks as if Lord Ashcroft has mined this seam to a considerable degree. The fact is, the move from the present constitutional soup to self determination will be complex (cf Willie Rennie, ‘think of all the paperwork!’) and it is easy for people to be blocked the thought of the process before they get behind it to consider the real issue which is the principle of self-determination itself. As this site has highlighted before, people seem to be comfortable with the idea of running their own affairs until it is called independence. However, once the principle is appreciated, the complexities of the process of transformation simply become issues to be dealt with.
Because Better Together has the advantage of the inertia of ‘it’s aye been’, Yes has to highlight the principle of self-determination, allay fears about the process and instill confidence that the practice is within our capacity. As others have pointed out, the most effective way of doing that is through personal contact. No-one said it was going to be easy!
Lib Dems are toast.
Sarah Teather MP seemed one of their better thinkers and is getting out at next WM election.
“Those figures are very hard to rationalise. We’ve found that the public trusts its Holyrood MSPs considerably more than their Scottish counterparts at Westminster, yet a large chunk of the electorate thinks that giving those MSPs more power will result in a spectacular level of incompetence that would see taxation, borrowing and spending all rise yet result in worse public services. Huh?”
Simple – people STILL think Scotland is subsidised by England. As a result, they think we need to raise taxes just to keep the same level of services.
This is exactly why Devo Max is not on the ballot paper, and why unionist parties will never give us anything approaching it. The second Scots realise we’re perfectly capable of funding everything by ourselves, support for the union will utterly collapse.
“Oh, so wur nae too poor efter a’? Fuck this union shite, then.”
Apathy, worse than ignorance, way worse.
My question of this poll would be how was it conducted ? It seems the questions were complicated and unless your interested in politics would be hard to answer immediately. Therefor if the poll was conducted over the phone your gonna get people just answering on the hoof without rational thought.
Thought this might be of interest (though shouldn’t be a surprise)
http://brightgreenscotland.org/index.php/2013/09/no-campaign-straight-up-lie-about-lord-ashcroft-indyref-poll/
This is why it is so important that people attend the Independence Rally. A large turnout will give substance to the belief that it is possible for Scotland to be a stand-alone entity in the world. It will help counter the ‘fear’ factor.
Ofcourse extensive coverage in the MSM would be beneficial too.
The parliament building and the Edinburgh trams does come up. Both Labour party fiascos, in terms of finance. The design of the parliament building doesn’t help either. Nothing says house of straw like that bamboo and hair dryer entrance.
Where is the list of Westminster cock ups which make the above look trivial? I know there are many.
There is an interesting look at this ‘poll’ on Bright Green, on Peter Bells Scoop it site.
@ Training Day.
I had already posted on the earlier thread.
This has been released to put dampers on the Rally !
Sad people.
Hail Alba
The fact that Johann Lamont was found to be more popular than Alex Salmond should tell us all we need to know about this poll.
A few thoughts
1) I am sceptical that Davidson has a 2% edge over Lamont. However, Ashcroft is a Tory supporter through and through and his polls as much as anyone’s can be described as a tad partisan in their convoluted questioning. He will be doing more of this for the Tories next year in the run up to the Westminster election and we will see how comfortable Darling and Co. are with his polls then 🙂
2) I’m not sure why Ashcroft is exercised by taxation, he does his best to avoid paying the things.
3) Despite reservations there is gold in these seams. Holyrood and the MSPs are clearly held in higher regard than Westminster. Our poll found that and now Ashcroft confirms it. What is needed is for Yes to join the dots for people with regards the best way to maximise this advantage and bypass the fog of confusion caused by Better Together.
4) The delay in publishing these figures is odd, extremely unusual in fact, as a poll with data 4 or 5 months old as very limited value in the current debate and automatically sets itself up for criticism. (Is there any explanation for the delay?)
So, we know Holyrood is better, more focussed on Scotland and more trustworthy. People of Scotland give them the tools to do the job! You know it makes sense!
For Feb-May, referendum voting intentions were;
Yes: 26%
No: 65%
For June, referendum voting intentions were;
Yes: 32%
No: 57%
There seems to be no figures for the Aug poll.
Even these polls by Lord Ashcroft show the gap narrowing from 39% to 25% in a matter of a few months.
I have always believed that the only way for everyone to have all the relevant facts about the debate is by sending the information to every house in Scotland.
Difficult to know what to make of this. If accurate then earlier you gov polling is right and the referendum is lost and we are all stuffed.
But I cannot believe that the cause is lost and that is not just wishful thinking. I do not know how representative my area is but there are a lot of don’t knows with opinion split evenly between yes and no with a slight bias in favour of yes in all honesty – this is my street stall experience. But that is only one area.
Ashcroft’s poll does point to a chronic lack of political education among voters but SLAB and Bitter Together will be delighted that this is the case. They need ignorance and lack of engagement to win. It will bother them not one whit that recognition for Lamont, Davidson and Rennie is so low.
What is really depressing is the possibility that the SLAB narrative of the Scottish government not focusing on “everyday priorities” could be gaining traction because people do not seem to have made the connection in their head that the best chance of improvements in the “everyrday priorities” of education, health and above all employment come with….the potential of independence!! That link needs to be built in the Scottish consciousness.
The Scottish cringe would seem to be there as you suggest Stuart and it is tough to give people self esteem when they have never had it. The Unionists will love that though, because they are content with Scottishness being defined in the context of a shortbread tin image, a 90 minute spasm at Hampden and “you cannae dae it” attitude.
My worry is that if No wins and when the cuts coming down the line in 2016/17 kick in and the housing bubble bursts along with rising inflation and interest rates. Meanwhile the rUK debt burden becomes unsustainable to the extent that there is a “bond-apocalypse” and an rUK economic collapse, Scots will then have plenty of time to think “What the f*** have I done”….But too late we will all be British then because we voted to be so didn’t we?
The YouGov poll can be ignored because it’s YouGov, and suffers the same weighting problem that all YouGov polls on this issue face. The TNS poll can be ignored because they didn’t weight by voting intention at all, and they use outdated polling methods. These Ashcroft polls can be ignored because they’re using out-of-date data, it collates three polls into one, and some of the results (Lamont more popular than Salmond? Only 10% undecided?) make a mockery of the idea that this is an accurate representation of Scottish opinion. On top of all that, all three polls have leading pre-ambles to the main question and/or need to “soften up” those being polled with pro-union questions beforehand.
Put simply: if the Yes vote is really at an all-time low and the No vote really at an all-time high, then why do they need to utilise such bad polling practices in order to show it? Why not simply say “Should Scotland be an independent country, yes or no?”
@Ron.
A No vote is not the end of History !
Do you really think that we shall all just curl up and die?
The struggle shall continue. If there is a no vote it shall be marginal and a result of the appalling negativity we are bombarded with daily. We shall have been cheated !
Hail Alba
The favourability stats are a little strange. Yes it has Johann on plus 3% and Alex on -5%, but Johann, Ruth and Willie’s favourability stats are horribly skewed by the fact that so many people have never heard of them. If I was Johann I would be in despair that 31% of the Scottish electorate have never heard of her.
I noticed that the polls had a column for “Lost Tory” – I think it would be good if we set a target of filling that column.
AS a number of posters have already mentioned, the key is normalization of support for independence. You can discuss facts and figures with someone until you are blue in the face, and still that person may not be persuaded. However if that person notices that many people are already turning to YES, then he/she will make an effort to find out the facts for themselves. It’s no use just believing that only a small minority will behave like sheep. Human history (and behavioural biology) run counter to that argument. Voting YES has to appear like a popular, natural choice.
The facts are out there, noone has to dig deep to find them, not really. But they won’t search unless they want to. They won’t listen to the strong arguments unless they want to. The trick is to persuade people that YES is a sensible, popular, sane option.
The fact that a flurry of opinion poll reults favouring NO suddenly came out after one more favourable to YES was no accident. The fact that a huge MSM effort was made to rubbish the WoS/ Panelbase poll was no accident.
BT are well aware that the YES campaign must not be allowed to gain any traction whatsoever. If YES support is seen by the public to start growing, then it’s all over. With not real facts on their side, and no real reason to stay in the union, BT have to play their single trump card – voting YES is silly, voting YES is not popular, only a minority of “challenged” people will vote YES. Delivering opinion poll results that show YES in trouble, or stalled is an important part of the BT narrative.
There are two effective ways to counter this –
1) Release any poll results that show YES starting to climb, or at least challenge those favourable to NO (as often as possible).
2) YES supporters stand up and be counted – start talking to people, and PLEASE get those YES boards and badges on display at any opportunity! Engage.
Rev, based on research and evidence I’ve come to the firm conclusion that the term
Too wee!
Too stupid!
Canny dae it!
Does NOT apply to even slightly or partially better informed Scots.. but dose apply 100% of the time to Unionists & British Nationalists.
Accuse your enemy of what you lack…
Dose the BBC & MSM not always promote and play up this myth… that in itself should be a warning to us. Think about it – accuse your enemy of what you lack…
Also, even slightly or partially better informed Scots are an equal or match for any fear or scaremongering tactic – hence the NO DEBATE tactic… meaning NEVER, NEVER, DEBATE – because British Nationalists are too stupid – they actually believe their our own propaganda even when confronted with irrefutable facts. British Nationalists cannot debate because it immediately exposes their unionist stupidity.
Too wee – that, among other things, is the unionists vision. Like a child looking in their hankie after blowing their nose – bewilderment that’s a unionists view of the future. Until a big person comes along and says – do as you’re told -put that in your pocket.
Canny dae it! As said, better informed Scots expand in belief – where it’s British Nationalists ALWAYS argue that we canny dae it!
As an experiment…TRY THIS
Keep in mind during your next conversation with a Unionists & British Nationalists – that they might be..
Too wee!
Too stupid!
Canny dae it!
Then just listen….
Luigi
I think that is right, the poll that showed Yes in front really rattled the No camp. They have decided to play negative and they know that if that tactic starts to fail and people move away from the negative position it is well nigh impossible to switch tactics to turn things around. Every time there is a glimmer of light their darkness will descend with as much force as they can muster. However, the more light there is the harder it becomes to darken it and the campaigning has to become more negative and more repellant to boot.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/top-stories/poll-scots-to-reject-independence-re-elect-snp-1-3082139
Labour leader Johann Lamont has also overtaken Alex Salmond in the popularity stakes, according to the bigger 10,000 cohort of Scots polled in the latest research. Ms Lamont has an overall favourable/unfavourable rating of +3, with Mr Salmond on -4, although 40 per cent of Scots had not heard of the Labour leader, compared with just 6 per cent who had not heard of Mr Salmond.
Oh the tears in my eyes…one word furfuxake!
I do think a lot of this stuff is generational and there is a cohort of older voters that simply do not have the capability to assimilate the world view of a ‘normalised’ Independence. But they won’t live forever. I don’t know if we will win in 2014. I do know that if we lose then, we win later. Where is Rome? Where is Austria Hungary, Where is the Romanov empire. Gone with the wind and blowing by in stour. Patience
Given that Q1 of the Ashcroft’s Aug poll is the nearest we can get to a YES/NO referendum question, we can infer an equivalence, namely;
Feb-May: Yes – 26%, No – 65%
June: Yes – 32%, No – 57%
Aug: Yes – 40%, No – 48%
Above seems to reflect the change in polls we have seen over the past 6 months
” We send 9,9%, and receive back only 9.3% – of what? Tell that on the doorstep and people will simply roll their eyes.The data needs to be worked down to “in your pocket” figures.
Trident annual running costs of £2billion (?) are billed entirely to Scotland?
Of Scotland’s population of 5.3 million, say 2 million are taxpayers? So £2,000 million divided by 2 million suggests that £1000 of income tax from each taxpayer goes to paying for Trident?
Seems an unlikely figure but what is the correct one? Pointless to divide by 5.3 million since not every men woman and child pay income tax.
As a tax payer I would like to know just where my tax dollar, to use a USA expression, goes and what reductions would be applicable in the event of Devomax with Scotland paying strictly a proportionate sum per %age population. And secondly in the event of independence whereby Scotland would contribute to agreed shared ventures, e.g. embassies.
Trident? Westminster H of Commons and H of Lords? Foreign embassies? Armed forces? Royal family? Oh and assets arising in a country being creditted to that country so no ex-regio oil and gas revenue circumventing Scotland and creditted to the Treasury.Generated power?
i recall Wendy Alexander warning us all that an SNP government at Hollyrood would cost each family £500 per year.In the event it is more likely that the SNP in power has saved each family £500 per year.Danny Alexander that independence would cost each Scot £1 per year.And now Osborne tempting us with an extra income of £2000 spread over 30 years.
If Better Together can do these sums it is time the Yes campaign provided data likewise for we doorstep campaigners.Just ensure that the calculations are credible,
Rev, I don’t know what’s in the kitty, but if you want to ruffle some feathers and not use panelbase to do so but another pollster (often called the ‘gold standard’), then asking ICM to repeat this exercise would be worthwhile.
http://www.icmresearch.com/scottish-independence-poll-for-the-sunday-telegraph
Do it for a 1000 Scots sample. Just the indy question in recent panelbase format (e.g. There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on the 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?)
If cash is available, then adding a Q on Holyrood 2011 vote to check the base would be worthwhile.
And aye, Mr Ashcroft has been nice in demonstrating that No has dropped 8 points with yes having risen 5 points since the spring of 2013.
For the sake of balance this is, imo, worth linking to again esp the internal link to Calum Cashley’s blog
http://www.arcofprosperity.org/victory-forecast/
Talking about wasted billions, which the Labour Party excel at, don’t forget their PFI schemes which throw public money by the lorry load into an endless dark pit. Also a gift from Labour is the chronic self destructive negativity where everything is shite and success treated as suspicion. Take for example our new road bridge across the Forth. In other countries they celebrate large engineering achievements such as spectacular bridges in France and Denmark, huge solar arrays in Spain, experimental hydrogen power plants in Italy, CERN in Switzerland and the amazing airport hubs of SE Asia. But in Scotland, once world renowned for our engineering, we get wholesale negativity over the first major bridge to be built in the country since the 1960s. Oh and if Labour were to sanction the new Forth bridge it would gave been under a PFI scheme and ended up costing four times as much as it does now.
There needs to be a real concerted examination of Labour in Scotland over the past 40 years because quite frankly if they were a company they would have drowned under decades worth of negligence claims against them. It’s not that Scotland or its people that are shite, it’s Labour in Scotland that’s utter shite and they’ve always wanted everyone to be dragged down into the dung heap with them (that’s what they mean by equality folks). The 1979 election broke the Labour Party and they’ve remained broken ever since.
We shouldn’t give this joke poll the time of day. The plan is to sow seeds of doubt and get ourselves quibbling and negative about our cause. We are making progress so let’s look forward to a huge turnout at the rally!!!
Article on results from poll being a lie.
http://brightgreenscotland.org/index.php/2013/09/no-campaign-straight-up-lie-about-lord-ashcroft-indyref-poll/
Scottish_skier,
Be fair now! The last thing BT wants to contend with is another opinion poll that they cannot control. The dust has barely settled and the wounds are still being licked. I do think commissioning another pollster would take the heat off Panelbase though.
WoS have started crowd-funding opinion polls that BT cannot control. And worse, they are doing it deliberately! How terrible.
@ScottishSkier
That sounds a really good idea and would give Curtice something to comment on. There seems to be a renewed belief in the power of polls to convince people on the unionist side…
On which subject – this makes pretty much the same points that people have made here and would be a good place to send neutrals and people on the other side (key messages – Scottish parliament more trusted, implied trend in favour of yes).
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/09/do-lord-ashcrofts-polls-tell-us-anything-new/
Comes with a light dusting of snark as well.
@DCanmore
Completely agree on your summary of SLab.
Lord Ashcroft on Scotland’s people’s feelings about Trident;
http://www.banthebomb.org/index.php/102-uncategorised/1457-trident-poll-by-lord-ashcroft
I think that as well as “Project Fear” we also have “Project Scunner” to overcome. “Project Scunner” is typified by Sarwars deliberate and disgusting attempt on Scotland Tonight to turn ordinary people off the debate. It was mentioned several times in the BTL comments yesterday that ordinary folk will just assume that “politicians, they are all the same. You can’t get an honest answer from any of them!” this is of course facilitated by a compliant MSM and TV coverage. Better Together + Scottish media = NO SCOTLAND!
It is a mountain to climb made all the harder as we have “No Scotland” and their dirty tricks sabotaging our foot and hand holds at every opportunity. We must just try all the harder as we simply must win this.
Some of that may be coming from the fact that Scotland does have 3 largely terrible, wasteful, useless parties (Labour, Tory, Lib Dem) and voters are judging politics as a whole, rather than the politics they currently have, or may be likely to get. I’ve hammered on this before, but I think the dominant feeling in the UK electorate lies in a desire to find some mechanism for uncorruptability… that is, that they can have any certainty about the future not being degraded by typical political process, that people will rule on the things they campaign on, and campaign on the things they actually believe.
I don’t think it’s the “Scottish Cringe”, as such, more Scots are part of the world wide rejection of belief that the internet and modern experience naturally leads too; a sort of “Och they say that now”. The polls showing that people believe “Westminster is more important.” could be being read by the Scots electorate not just as a statement of legal fact, but also a generalised suspicion that “This is how big boy politics is done, sadly”; that it’s more important because it’s more illustrative, tells you the big things, and that once Hollyrood becomes de facto dominant, becomes the Big Boy, this is the sort of politics it leads too. That having control of a military budget leads to wanting to launch a lot of wars because you are bribed by the Military-Industrial Complex… They like current MSPs because they are “pure”. They don’t perhaps think anyone can stay that way with true power.
Exposure to the wider world can also lead to a fortress mentality, a doubling down on stupidity like the US Christian/Militia Right has when faced with contrasting viewpoints; I haven’t seen that except in isolated Scots Nationalists… it’s more a xenophobic’s addiction. However I do suspect the folks here are missing the real rot… After all, under a United Kingdom our Government is still, for now, yours too and the disillusionment has spread wide to all it touches. I believe the “No” votes are probably coming from a disengagement with politics, not the passionate engagement people here have.
And so, the solution to breaking into the persuadable “No” group would be to address the wider structures; what that would be, when Lib Dems can sign unbreakable pledges that they then break, I’m not sure. (One reason I want to grab our politicians by the throat and scream “Don’t you fuckers know what you’re doing to Democracy? Don’t you even care?!”) A simplified list of all the powers already available to MSPs maybe, and how they’ve been fairly and consistently used… that Scotland already does more than perhaps you realised, and our politics haven’t been corrupted?
But get that belief in Hollyrood and not in Westminster (as we all know it’s not) and I think you’ll see people break to Independence. As it currently stands, without certainty, a sense of being able to trace, plan for, believe in something different from Westminster, well people aren’t uninformed… they just don’t care any more. Especially when Scottish Labour isn’t seen as dead forever yet; maybe a lot of Scots don’t want to risk them coming back and breaking their caring hearts all over again.
Cowardly? Maybe. But also pragmatic. Unfortunately.
RE velofello says:
9 September, 2013 at 10:22 am
” We send 9,9%, and receive back only 9.3% – of what? Tell that on the doorstep and people will simply roll their eyes.The data needs to be worked down to “in your pocket” figures.
Trident annual running costs of £2billion (?) are billed entirely to Scotland?
Just what I have been saying for months.
I have been into Yes headquarters to enquire if any work had been done on this.
Also, same with SNP. No feedback from either.
Getting information on exports, products Scotland makes and exports, is hard.
We have the maths, they have the myths. Only we can quantify it.
@Robert Kerr
Quite right. Any gentleman’s agreement to have the referendum settle the matter for a generation is a contract already well and truly violated by the alarming disregard for the democratic process displayed by a compliant MSM. How can any pro-indy supporter honour such a commitment when we have not only seen the oil lies of the 70s repeated but many more of similar or greater magnitude perpetrated also.
Indeed we would, I suggest, be failing in our duty of care to democracy itself were we not to persist until there is a result from a truly informed Scottish electorate.
If we lose, this will become all the more apparent when the ‘jam tomorrow = devolution roll-back’, ‘Economic recovery = mini-property reheat bubble making Britains TED even worse’, ‘modernising of NHS = destroying NHS’, ‘financial sector regulation = even more scams to sate the mindless hunger of the greed class for the money of the genuine wealth creating population’, ‘North Sea Oil and gas estimates are revised upwards and further discoveries are made off Scotland’s west coast’ and many other truths become apparent.
In short, the behaviour of the MSM has long since abrogated any such obligation pro-indy supporters may have felt they had in this regard.
Should have said, Re ‘Getting information on exports, products Scotland makes and exports, is hard.’ because it’s all UK UK UK.
The Ashcroft poll on Trident is interesting, because it did ask the referendum question.
This poll was conducted over 29th April – 2nd May 2013, interviewing 1236 adults. The result was;
Yes: 30%
No: 56%
Would not vote: 2%
Don’t know: 12%
A No lead of 26%, which is comparable with other polls of that period
We were all surprised at the time that Lord Ashcroft was claiming that Scots supported the replacement of Trident, so it interesting to know where the headline No lead of 40% comes from the bigger Feb-May poll. That does seem an equally strange result.
One thing for sure you don’t have to dig deep in all of these polls to find anomalies. The value of polls and the methodologies employed by pollsters are certainly open to question and criticism. I doubt the pollsters now will find it easy to convince people of their merit in this referendum.
@DCanmore
Negativity eh? And you propose to counter that with what, irony?
You are a wag!
Only thing I’d mention is, a heck of a lot of people (mostly young folk) I speak to ask – ‘But how will we pay for it?’ (it being all the infrastructure of an independent country.) They don’t seem to make the connection that we already do pay for it, more than our fair share as it happens.
Its almost as if by some sort of default, they forget that the money Westminster – in its infinite benevolence – gives us to pay for Scottish services was our cash to begin with. A lot of folk think that in the advent of independence, we’d somehow have to find that money all over again, they don’t realise, or make the connection, that its ours in the first place and we’d simply continue to use it with out filtering it through a sticky-fingered UK treasury.
I think that is partially why people think services would cost more, that they’d get worse – as said – is all down to lack confidence in ourselves and I think mostly the politicians who offer themselves up for office.
It would be good if this rubbish was subjected to the same scrutiny as any poll suggesting upward momentum of YES vote by MSM or Prof Curtice.
But we know that is not going to happen … look forward to the next set of comedy polls before the March; heres my prediction of what the state media will come up with.
Pre March poll
No 62%
Yes 25%
Dont know – (who gives a f**k cause its all over; yay go UK !!)
Im keeping this prediction and we’ll see how close to the mark this is on the eve of the March.
(Took me ages of analyzing all the previous polls over several days + Prof Curtices predictions and review of BBC & STV material …… rumours that I obtained this information from my cats eating habit preferences (whiskas v kittykat) or just had a stab in the dark because I can print this pi*h are way off the mark !!! ( by the way dont have cat so there’s the proof)
Dont be affected by meaningless headlines in ‘partisan papers’ and state sponsored polls !!!!! Its part of Project Fear, or am I being cynical ?
@velofello
I agree with your comment at 10:22am. I get annoyed at the SNP and Yes representatives when being questioned on TV. The same old question comes up time and time again “Where is the money coming from?” and they go on about the tax imbalance. Fair enough the sums of cash might be greater but the ordinary punter would understand as answer like as you explained “Trident there is two (billion?) right away what could we spend that on” I am sure that there are dozens of other examples like that which mean much more to ordinary punters than tax percentages which seem somewhat abstract to a lot of folk. I know I was one of them!
pa_broon74.. Well said!
“How will we pay for it?” – “You already are!”. This begging bowl mentality is one aspect that really needs covered. They NEED us…we DONt need them!
Gordoz
Prof Curtice has reviewed this over at ThinkScotland and he is not impressed. Says at the end that it is a pity Ashcroft didn’t “get more bang for his mega bucks”.
I honestly believe we are seeing polling that has been published solely to sway public opinion rather than reflect it.
However, if you dig a little deeper you detect there has been a step change in attitudes over the summer. The No vote is soft and the Yes camp have been making inroads into that vote.
I agree with Handshrimp – ‘Every time there is a glimmer of light their darkness will descend with as much force as they can muster’ .
And it works to a certain extent when it brings all but the most optimistic down. The British establishment have 100’s of years of experience in control, they know what they are doing. That’s what makes the likes of JL and Anas S so despicable, why are they doing it?
But sites such as these keep us going and in the end the only poll that matters is the one in September 2014.
I have great admiration for Alex Salmond as he bears the brunt of all of this negativity.
Another reason I think is that a lot of DKs or soft No’s don’t realise the really good job the SG does in difficult circumstances and think they will be able to continue to protect us from Westminster, hence stating that the majority would still vote in the SNP for Holyrood.
Cheers HandandShrimp 9 September, 2013 at 11:14 am
Gordoz
Prof Curtice has reviewed this over at ThinkScotland and he is not impressed. Says at the end that it is a pity Ashcroft didn’t “get more bang for his mega bucks”.
Never Spotted that
Credit where its due to Prof Curtice … (but he has a long way to travel back to the middle of the swingometer in terms of even reporting if you know what I mean).
Wasn’t it the SNP Government that reopened the railway between Airdrie and Bathgate both on time and on budget? Admittedly, stations at Drumgelloch, Caldercruix and Armadale weren’t opened until after the fact due to weather, but even the SNP can’t be blamed for bad weather, even if Labour were to claim that they could.
And Rev, if you don’t mind me asking, what do you think the outcome of the referendum will be? Do you think that the Scottish people will choose independence or union?
To misquote the wonderful Lord Foulkes,
“They are talking Scotland down, and they are doing it deliberately!”
Just wait until the White Paper is out and minds will refocus on the big prize.
If [hopefully] the UK economy continues to show signs of sustained improvement a challenge will be for the Scottish Government to demonstrate their policies ensured this recovery despite the Westminster austerity policy.
The issues of cost of living increases and wage freezes / low pay (a recovery not in people’s pockets) as well as a question mark over whether there has been any fundamental change to the UK economy (still heavily reliant on City of London, SE property bubble and consumer spending through debt) still exist. To me the Scottish economy on its own could carry less of this risk. I would rather have a resource and manufacturing based economy than a speculative, consumer spending one any day. The traditional financial services sector in Edinburgh is a bonus.
The vast majority of people see political differences between Scotland and rUK. I hope they increasingly see that Scotland’s economic ambitions are more likely to be realised when they are 100% reflected in our own elected government’s policy.
@Gillie: Could this be another poll that’s meant to sway opinion rather than reflect it? Could it be that Panelbase poll showing the Yes camp for the first time in the lead has struck a unionist nerve.?
Yes. ‘Course it bloody is. Polls like this are useless bollocks. Even the Prof didn’t think that much of it. There’s still a year to go and the Yes strategy is still unfolding. Sweep up the low-hanging fruit first, get the grass roots Yes stalls going to attract and convert the slightly sceptical Unionists, soak up the ravings from Project Fear, then hold the rally, then release the white paper and unleash the storm.
Once there’s more information out there I’m convinced that people will start to lose this daft cringe, especially the financial one. People are naturally wary about things like currency (it’s our pound too doesn’t really cut it as an answer to the assertion that Gilbert might not ‘let’ us use the pound) but once these things are addressed from the white paper, the tide will turn.
Example. Did anyone hear Jim Spowart on Radio Scotland yesterday? Intensely relaxed about the Scottish financial situation post-independence, sees no problems at all. And he’s been there and done it right. Compare and contrast to Captain Darling’s dreary ochones. Jings, see his dire warnings on the Fear Factor (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xgkCXONOrg8#t=30 2:18 in). He makes Rev IM Jolly sound like Chris Evans.
Like someone else said, it’s no going to be easy, but there’s a critical mass coming folks and we’re part of it.
LOL.
There’s a lovely direct correlation between the difference between UKGE past vote and current Holyrood VI for SNP versus gap between Yes and no.
This deviation has risen from ~9% in 2006 to 26% today. At the same time, the Y/N gap for Yougov has risen from a point or two to 28 points.
Basically, the more the SNP vote for Holyrood has deviated from UKGE vote, the greater the Y/N gap Yougov come up with and the further they are away from the rest of the pack.
So I was right, the more people swing to SNP at Holyrood, the lower Yougov calculate support for independence when the opposite is actually the case.
All because they weight to UKGE creating a flawed base.
That’s just quality. What numpties.
Yes, Mr Ashcroft is a typical Tory politician; always quick to piss money away on something useless.
I’m going to fine tune this to gap from other pollsters to reduce noise, although an r2 of 0.65 is damn good.
SS
Keep your voice down, they might hear you 🙂
When Scottish_Skier eventually puts down his thoughts about the indyref polling, I suspect it’s going to be the most must-read article in the history of Wings Over Scotland.
Get it written, man! Stop teasing us with comments 😛
Rev
If we get a 68% turnout that would be good. 65% is more likely.
Surely we’ve just to ensure that most of the folk that vote will vote Yes, which we will.
Voting NO basically means we are voting against ourselves.
That we couldn’t make a better job of things..
It’s remarkable what years of brainwashing and a hostile media can do.
I agree that info needs presented in a simpler way.
Eg Norway’s oil fund could buy x number of schools, hospitals, forth bridges etc.
Scotland’s oil fund under the union could buy: 0
The Scottish share of Trident is not £ 2bn – more like £163m! So stop that runaway train before you get carried away.
http://www.yesscotland.net/undecided_nuclearweapons
There is a long list of Westminster cock-ups to commit to memory :
PFI
NHS IT system
BBC digital IT system
Scrapping of Nimrod replacement aircraft
Aircraft carriers without planes (1 to be mothballed on completion)
Rail franchise cock-up (Virgin, FirstGroup)
A few more in here :
http://www.power-to-the-people.co.uk/2008/08/waste-taxpayers-money-labour-government/
I think we need to collate a LONG LIST for reference
Though this stuff is largely out of date it still underlines the basics.
The key is “informed”.
Most people in Scotland would like to vote YES. I have no doubt about that.
What we have to do is establish in the general consciousness that Scotland is comfortably self supporting and we win. I am absolutely certain that informed opinion is moving towards us and won’t move away. I am also absolutely certain that if uninformed or misinformed opinion is aware of that the smart gutys are with us they will move our way as well.
I’m sure the YES camp is aware of this.
If we establish that we are self supporting
If we establish that clever and well informed people are supporting Yes
if we establish that we are continually being lied to
if we establish that less and less people are swallowing the lies and only the stupid people are believing the lies…..( There is nothing that moves a person more than a realisation that he or she is being taken for a fool)
we win
Time enough yet
Several have mentioned the Bright Green analysis of this poll, but as an extra inducement to read it, a quote,
” The figures they claim represent what Scots think ought to be the government’s priority exclude every single person who said the Scottish Government does have the the right priority.”
Doug Daniel
I see you said exactly the same thing as me more succintly in an earlier post
Yep, we have a mountain to climb to get this message across. But as the old Chinese proverb says, you cannot conquer the highest mountain without taking the first step. (or something like that)
We all need to engage, as someone said earlier. I’m already working on my family members and workmates. Reaping benefits already – especially thanks to referrals to this site! Keep up the good work, Rev.
So far all arguments have been of the flavour “What we want is” or the Union side demanding “Tell us how…”. At some point the YES campaign are going to start lobbing the nasty bombs…its all well and good being positive but public apathy is so bad some of them seem to believe the current situation is actually acceptable and better than anything else on offer.
“Lord Ashcroft being a Tory, the questions were centred around tax”
Well, the good Lord and “tax” have been mentioned together in the past….
@Jamie Arriere
Don’t forget the annual upkeep of Westminster.
Thanks for the fact on the cost of trident. £163m could pay for an awful lot of public services.
I agree that a comprehensive list of savings with figures would be a handy tool for arguing our case.
Onwards says:
9 September, 2013 at 11:42 am
Voting NO basically means we are voting against ourselves.
That we couldn’t make a better job of things / can’t be trusted !
It’s remarkable what years of brainwashing and a hostile media can do.
I agree that info needs presented in a simpler way.
Eg Norway’s oil fund could buy x number of schools, hospitals, forth bridges etc.
Scotland’s oil fund under the union could buy: 0
I agree – the simple arguements & acts of persuasion are the best.
“It will bother them not one whit that recognition for Lamont, Davidson and Rennie is so low.”
Actually It has to be to their advantage while there are still so many “I’m voting no because I don’t like Alex Salmond” Now if they were to actually be comparing him to the alternatives what would their conclusion be?
@ velofello and others
The 9.9% of UK tax take vs 9.3% of UK spending equates to £4.4bn per year.
which is more than £800 per person in Scotland we would have to either spend, invest, or use to reduce borrowings if Independent.
That’s before you take into account the fact that we are charged £3.1bn per year by the UK for our share of defence spending (only £1.9bn of which is spend in Scotland). That difference equals another £200+ per person.
We were also charged £4.1bn by the UK last year for our ‘share of their debt interest payments on a debt Scotland mostly didn’t generate : that’s another nearly £800 per person.
Like everything else the data is there. The hard bit is presenting it in the right way depending on your audience.
For example when you throw the £800 number at someone they often say, “I don’t believe you, prove it”. Then you have to get into the 9.9%/9.3% discussion then into how GERS works etc etc.
The other thing to do is to just point to Norway. then people kind of get it at an emotional level. And if they say, what about when the oil runs out, then point to Sweden…. “so the worst that can happen is we’ll be like Sweden ?” ..then the penny drops.
@Chic McGregor
Quite right. Any gentleman’s agreement to have the referendum settle the matter for a generation is a contract already well and truly violated by the alarming disregard for the democratic process displayed by a compliant MSM. How can any pro-indy supporter honour such a commitment when we have not only seen the oil lies of the 70s repeated but many more of similar or greater magnitude perpetrated also.
Unfortunately the SNP have gone out their way to support this pledge. I have no idea why they are being so nice and fair about it, given the relentlessly biased MSM coverage of the referendum.
Doug Daniel.
You’ve hit the nail on the head. The challenge is to convince people that Scotland is not subsidised by England. Also the polls instigated by unionists are as deceptive as BT. In truth they are part of the BT campaign.
I think the next Wings poll should just ask the referendum question and nothing else. I suspect it would merely reveal the high percentage of don’t knows, with reference to voting intentions. However, it would expose the sham polls instigated by the unionists. Even John Curtice mentioned that no polls have just asked the one question. The MSM couldn’t ignore it!
Regarding PFI, to get an idea of the sheer waste of money involved here, have a look at this spreadsheet. [PFI current projects list March 2012]
http://data.gov.uk/dataset/private-finance-initiative-pfi-data%402012-09-19T02%3A01%3A43.294963
First look at Column R (the total capital cost of any project)
Then add up the list of payments in the columns to the right. It will make your eyes water
For those who cannot view it, one example
Perth & Kinross Schools : Project cost £136m
Total cost of payments up to 2042 £630,7m !!!
The Scottish Government is already making progress on this via the Scottish Futures Trust
http://www.snp.org/media-centre/news/2012/jul/scottish-savings-contrast-westminster-waste
I was going to add that the SFT savings quoted of £131m in ONE YEAR, almost completely pays for the Perth & Kinross project on its own!!
Jamie Arriere says:
dont forget the very successful illegal wars
Iraq Campaign (failure)
Afghanistan Campaign (failure)
+ Air traffic control computers system : Swanwick Fiasco (6yrs late)
@SS, I’ve looked at the crosstabs and I’m not sure it’s even weighted by likelihood to vote (please correct me if I’m wrong here). For the 10k sample poll, the base, for all questions, is ‘all respondents’. If true, it’s not even comparable to the other polls, which are polls of likely voters and not just anyone who expressed an opinion. I might be missing something though, the tables are here:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Scotland-10k-poll-Full-tables.pdf
It also doesn’t appear to be weighted by previous vote, whether Westminster or Holyrood, along with a few more potentially significant flaws in the demographic weightings they have done picked up on by Keir Liddle. Unless he’s hidden some data, this is probably the most flawed poll on the independence question of the lot, which is saying something.The Holyrood one does have political weighting, but by previous Westminster vote, something which completely defies logic. The unweighted sample, as usual, thinks they voted SNP in far greater numbers in 2010 for reasons well documented by SS but as a result it is massively weighted against SNP supporters. Even then, the SNP comes away with a 40-35 lead http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Scottish-Parliament-August-poll-Full-tables.pdf There’s also the hidden poll on independence, which, when weighted by turnout and past voting, actually gives 55/38 against, which is rather more in line with other polls even with the active weighting against SNP voters.
The third poll also appears to be an ‘all respondents’ job, which again skews the findings towards those who are completely disengaged from all politics, but otherwise I think the findings of this one have been pretty well covered here and on the Bright Green blog by Gary Dunion:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/Scottish-Parliament-August-poll-Full-tables.pdf
Anyway, hard to work out whether it was purely incompetence or if he has indeed tried to cook the books, but either way most of the findings are outdated and based on rather suspect methodology. In some senses I think this could be pretty helpful to Yes in the long run (other than the initial negative headlines) because already the poll is being taken as a reason to take the referendum for granted and focus instead on attacking Salmond and the SNP.
@Ken Johnston
“Should have said, Re ‘Getting information on exports, products Scotland makes and exports, is hard.’ because it’s all UK UK UK.”
Yes, you are right. The biggy is in regard to food and drink production.
The UK has to net import half the food and drink it needs. This is a massive, massive, inbuilt trade deficit. An annual ‘grocery bill’ which far outstrips all the far more widely known North Sea earnings.
It is usually mired in a cloud of accountancy obscuration in government reports where focus is placed on the ‘value added’ aspect.
If you dig deeply enough, you can get raw produce figures which more closely reflect reality i.e. which would best indicate an independent Scotland’s prospective.
When you do you will find that Scotland is more than self-sufficient in net food and drink production. The massive grocery bill deficit is all down to the over population (in food and drink terms) of England. England has around 3 times the population density of China.
However, in terms of ‘value added’ the discrepency in real production levels per head between Scotland and England is down played and obscured.
Generally speaking, Scottish raw produce is exported to England where it is packaged and redistributed from centres usually around the ‘midlands’ (i.e. south of even the median latitude for England). The produce thus accrues a value 3-4 times more than what was paid for it. Value added is counted as the wages of the workforce, profits for the owners and the tax take associated with that and the value of exports from there accrue to the UK treasury with the value added component of GDP being assigned to England.
Even if you buy something labelled Scottish produce in a Scottish situated supermarket it is likely that it has travelled that route with something like 75% of what you pay being counted as English earnings. Basically, we are selling at x and buying it back at 4x.
This is a scenario which makes little sense for Scotland even as part of the Union. In an independent Scotland, although change would not be immediate, it is difficult to envisage a situation where the repatriation of value added would not naturally occur. The commercial possibilities for Scottish entrepreneurs, the value of jobs and revenue for a Scottish economy in terms of jobs and export value and even the distribution logistics from a Scottish perspective would be compelling for both commerce and government.
To what extent and at what pace this would happen is not easy to predict with precision but there would IMV eventually be a repatriation of value added to GDP of many billions of pounds, quite possibly exceeding oil revenue in value. (And a further significant worsening of England’s inbuilt deficit).
The problem, from a campaign stance, is that this is a complex message to try to get across, even if we had a fair and free media.
Luigi
BT are well aware that the YES campaign must not be allowed to gain any traction whatsoever. If YES support is seen by the public to start growing, then it’s all over. With not real facts on their side, and no real reason to stay in the union, BT have to play their single trump card – voting YES is silly, voting YES is not popular, only a minority of “challenged” people will vote YES. Delivering opinion poll results that show YES in trouble, or stalled is an important part of the BT narrative.
HandandShrimp
Every time there is a glimmer of light their darkness will descend with as much force as they can muster. However, the more light there is the harder it becomes to darken it and the campaigning has to become more negative and more repellant to boot.
To me, this is spot on.
For the No campaign the truth is out the window; there is a referendum to be won. Scotland is more important than the Scots. No must win the referendum, it must be won at all costs. To hell with the Scots.
Ivan McKee says:
9 September, 2013 at 12:14 pm
@ velofello and others
Now that is clever – never thought of putting it that way.
Nearly everyone I come across generally has positive opinions of Scandanavia; but counters with … but we can’t do that ’cause its expensive in taxes and the oil will run out in 20 yrs time …. seriously what a crazy arguement; we’ll be to poor 20yrs from now and with Status Quo at leaset we know taxes will always be low ?
Has anyone got a calculation of lost revenue to Scottish Coffers since the first discovery ? Well could this not be classed as a form of unrepresented taxation ?
We have just over a year to go. What we are seeing at the moment is a sustained effort to try to demoralise Yes supporters. They want us to get negative and defeatist. The MSM and No campaign basically want people on the Yes side to give up. As someone has mentioned, the poll in the Dundee (Jute) Courier has irked them somewhat!… 😀
O/T sorry but Anas Sarwar is on Daily Politics now – clearly still in with the in crowd despite his performance last week on that debate
Give me strength – Anas Sarwar on Politics Show introduced as one of the best of the 2010 intake at Westminster. Waiting to see if he constantly talks over everyone else.
eva – more likely BECAUSE of last week, not despite it!
@CW piper
Yes, the VI one was definitely weighted by past 2010 GE vote. The methodology appears to be the same across all 3 polls (tables identical in all cases with the same other weightings), hence the assumption that the same weightings were used. You are correct in that the other 2 do not show UKGE weighting therefore we don’t know if they did or not. However, Yougov always do this weighting as standard.
Note that you don’t have to show all weightings under BPC rules. You can say ‘the sample was weighted to match the 2010 GE result’ but you don’t need to show that as everyone knows what the UKGE result was, thus they know your weighted sample matches it. Yougov have published poll tables many times without showing this weighting, just noting it as part of their methodology. Obviously this means you can’t see how large the discrepancy was between SNP and Labour in terms of what people said and the actual result.
The hidden independence one is funny. Even though that’s skewed by UKGE2010 weighting, you actually have 27Y to 44N in the 7-10 likely to certain to vote with only 27% absolutely certain to vote No. In fact for 10 certain to vote (47% of the sample) it’s 43%Y/47%N… Only a 3% swing needed…
page 3.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/SCOTTISH-PARLIAMENT-VOTING-INTENTION-FULL-TABLES.pdf
@Muttley
“What we are seeing at the moment is a sustained effort to try to demoralise Yes supporters.”
Yes – this is nothing other than a co-ordinated propaganda attack by the MSM/BT (for they are one and the same) for that very purpose, and for the purpose of herding the don’t knows/soft No’s into the perceived ‘majority’.
Recent events have shown that, if nothing else, no one has any excuses for being under any misapprehensions about the nature of the ‘Scottish’ media.
I think we have to try and picture what economic circumstances are going to be like in late Summer / Autumn of 2014. Economic circumstances are likely to be better than now. The No to Scotland campaign will ramp up the economic fear factor – Scotland will lose its “recovery” if it leaves the UK. Why should people risk that?
I think we may have to show more than holding our own to be sure of a Yes outcome. I would point to the fundamental flaws in the UK economy that amount to a bust waiting to happen – property prices, high mortgage debt & low interest rates, wealth concentration, low pay culture, influence of City of London on financial regulation, etc. Scotland can avoid much of these risks. Why should we risk losing our “recovery” by staying in the UK?
From debates I have seen on TV, representatives from The Reid Foundation have been good at getting across social & economic aspirations. In the Yes campaign I feel the broad coalition across SSP, Labour (LFI), Green and SNP is a big advantage.
I would have expected far more noise to have been made about the 40 point gap (25:65) in the vote. Is this because BT are getting really worried by No complacancy now that the referendum is “won”?
Without going into the technicalities of why there is huge reason to believe than Scotland would do much better economically than the even the GERS figures suggest.
A typical conversation would be like this with around 40% of the ignorant who believe Scotland relies on England’s largesse to keep us at least a semi functioning developed nation.
“BUT HOW WILL WE AFFORD IT?” “Since Scotland already relatively overcontributes out net contribution to UK taxes and our public finances are healthier than the UK as a whole and have been for every year of the past 30 . If we can afford it now we can afford it as an independent nation”
“How will we pay for pensions” “Since Scotland already relatively overcontributes out net contribution to UK taxes and our public finances are healthier than the UK as a whole and have been for every year of the past 30 . If we can afford it now we can afford it as an independent nation”
How will we pay for tuition fees? “Since Scotland already relatively overcontributes out net contribution to UK taxes and our public finances are healthier than the UK as a whole and have been for every year of the past 30 . If we can afford it now we can afford it as an independent nation”
How will we pay for free prescriptions? “Since Scotland already relatively overcontributes out net contribution to UK taxes and our public finances are healthier than the UK as a whole and have been for every year of the past 30 . If we can afford it now we can better afford it as an independent nation”
How will we afford pensions? “Since Scotland already relatively overcontributes out net contribution to UK taxes and our public finances are healthier than the UK as a whole and have been for every year of the past 30 . If we can afford it now we can afford it as an independent nation”
How will we afford to pay our welfare? “Look its pretty simple, if Scotland can afford it now as part of the UK we will be better able to afford it as an independent nation. Every service you can think of and question affordability is moot point because when you add everything up we contribute more relatively to the UK than we get back in return. We will be richer, therefore we will be better able to afford it as an independent nation.“
If this message get hammered home every time a question about affordability comes up rather that the technical stuff the Yes campaign always tries to jump into. Beat them at there own game if every question is answered like this it might start to filter through to Scottish society.
@ Doug Daniel – not quite as evasive today as he was last week, didn’t get any cuttings this time
Important to remember it’s not the size of the dog in the fight which matters – it’s the size of the fight in the dog.
Have a peek at Scoop.it page on the referendum run by Peter Bell and look for the Brightgreenscotland.org link might cheer us all up
What was it JoLa was saying about wasting our money making cartoons and going on jollies?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-24014661
“Scottish people want a lot more control over their own affairs. They just think that when they get it, they’ll make a mess of it.”
I don’t for one moment think that is a correct interpretation. I think a better analysis is that when your average Scot thinks about politics, which in reality is not a lot, they think the SNP is doing such a good job running Scotland with current powers that all is more or less well in the country. And while “a lot more control over their own affairs” would be desirable, (who wouldn’t agree with that?) those are just trite words if not backed up by strong concrete reasons for taking the big, big step to Independence. It really is up to the YES campaign and the SNP to make a much stronger case as to why Independence would be better.
@heraldnomore – I think VisitScotland have already been written off as puppets of the SNP because of the things they chose to highlight as key points in Scotland’s history. So JoLa and the likes won’t pay any attention to that article!
(Not that they would anyway…)
The sudden appearance of very old, dubious opinion poll results and MSM behaviour indicates that panic has taken hold of BT. Not blind panic yet, but already very short-sighted! It is clear that a regular dose of favourable opinion polls is a major plank of BT strategy. Take that away and voting YES becomes not such a rare, unpopular action. BT appear to be puting maximum effort into maintaining poll results that deny any momentum for YES. When a single poll result challenged the BT/MSM narrative, a nervous, knee-jerk reaction revealed just how worried they are.
Keep the pressure on! I think that opinion polls will be used increasingly by both sides during the next year. The results will become even more ridiculous. We do have to play this game however, in order to unsettle BT/MSM and deny them a free run in their blatant attempt to manipulate public opinion.
I see SS, thanks for the clarification, I just assumed they needed to show how they weighted it. I still don’t think they weighted for turnout on the big poll though – on the VI they put the weighting used in brackets e.g. (nat rep. and likelihood to vote weighting) after the state ‘base’ along with publishing the 1-10 likelihood scale whereas on the big poll the base is purely ‘all respondents’. Not sure why he’d publish the full weightings for one and not the other two or indeed why he’d do the polling in such a sporadic fashion rather than all in the one poll as he usually does or indeed why he waited 4 months to publish the big poll but whatever, as Curtice says it just looks like a terrible waste of money.
You’re right about the hidden one on the VI though – very encouraging numbers given the weighting.
I’m actually thankful to Lord Ashcroft.
He’s essentially given me another 2 Yougov polls to add to my collection, filling in some blanks.
Yougov were the only one not clearly showing a drop in No over 2013. They now do! A huge one too; down ~10% with Yes up a few%, meaning while they are way out on their own in terms of absolute values due to the dodgy weighting, they’re following the same trends as all the others. Nice.
I suspect this one hasn’t made much news because it’s too old.
Why are they using old polls? Probably because increasingly the most recent ones are not showing good news for the union.
If the poll results are so great for the unionists why are unionist papers like the Daily Mail and Express so desperate in their use of blusterous headlines?
Their readership is mostly unionist so why such desperation? What are they frightened of?
S_S: “Why are they using old polls? Probably because increasingly the most recent ones are not showing good news for the union.”
Got it in one. Which just makes you wonder – what lengths will they take to try and hide the turning tide in the future?
SS are all polls showing a trend towards convergence or that there has been a step change?
http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/bizforscotland-destroys-the-no-campaigns-bank-bail-out-lies/
Tory poll puts No ahead, quelle surprise!!!
What really annoys me is that the media are trumpeting this poll with all their might. I wake up to my clock radio telling me that “Salmond’s dreams of breaking up Britain are in tatters”, and I pass a newsagent’s billboard announcing that Scots reject separation (but back the SNP). No reservations at all about giving it the front-page treatment.
Then we discover that the headline figures are about six months old, and that the data have been cruelly tortured in contravention of all known UN conventions to get the headline results being showcased. If anything at all might be taken from this dog’s breakfast of figures, it’s that the Yes vote has been climbing steadily and substantially for the past six months. But basically the methodology is a mess.
Still they headline it. While refusing to mention the WoS poll because (a) we were all on holiday (b) one of your questions might have been a wee tad leading (c) you mentioned space monsters!
Gimme a break.
SS are all polls showing a trend towards convergence or that there has been a step change?
All have been showing strong evidence for a general trend of convergence since the beginning of the year. There is some evidence for a more recent step change but not enough to conclude.
I understand TNS-BMRB are considering changing their methodology after their recent debacle; should be interesting to see what happens with that.
Really, really wish someone would do an ICM.
<pleadinglostpuppyfacesmiley>
So a Tory Pier of the realm with an alleged history of personal tax avoidance in excess of £3.4m, releases a poll which lacks any scientific rigor and which suggests more Scots trust JoLo than the First Minister, even though 40% or respondents had never heard of her. All you need now is a compliant MSM and the ‘cringe’ is re-invigorated. Democracy British style, simples.
For those who may have missed it at the end of a thread, I found this more up-to-date poll on where the elusive ‘+ve’ case for the Union might be found. Perhaps the same methodology was applied?
http://unicornsbarfrainbows.com/comics/2013/Where_Are_Unicorns_Found.html
Regardless of the date the polls were conducted on & the inbuilt bias, the uncomfortable reality is that a large segment of electorate is indeed influentially stupid.
You can use different words to mitigate offence or pretend otherwise but one cannot deny that there are voters who simply have insufficient intelligence to make a rational, reasonable, fact based decision. And that they are in such large numbers that their collective limited acumen could easily result in Scotland remaining in the union with England.
Project Fear is no different from most political campaigns that use comic book scaremongering stories as their primary tactic because it is effective & usually works to achieve the desired result.
Those who will default by choosing Westminster over Holyrood may only change their mind when their lives have become so miserable & intolerable that they finally realise that the alternative cannot possibly be any worse. And since we are not engaged in a civil war, it may take many more years of the effects of a stagnant economy to help turn opinion in our favour.
G H Graham
it may take many more years of the effects of a stagnant economy to help turn opinion in our favour.
It may be too late by then, the damage could be irreversible.
The MSM are now clearly at the all out propaganda stage already. We still have just over a year to go. This means they have to keep up this propaganda for a significant amount of time. They could maybe keep it up for a few weeks, that is why they and the No campaign (they are both the same as Training Day says) wanted a very short referendum campaign. Anything that challenges their view that there is going to be a No vote has to be ignored. Consequently, this is bound to produce a gap between the reality (what is actually happening on the ground) and what the No campaign/MSM want voters in Scotland to think is happening. As they are so opposed to independence this gap will eventually become a yawning, massive gap. In the last year of campaigning we should expect the MSM to be more and more ridiculous, as they parrot the message that there ‘cannot possibly be a Yes vote/a No vote is assured’ line. We should also expect to see any inconvenient evidence suggesting a Yes vote, or growing support for Yes, be ignored, in true censorship fashion.
cynicalHighlander
Thanks for this link:
Good stuff.
Luckily we live in a Country where most villages and Cities contain at least a hill and we enjoy climbing mountains as a past-time. This is only a slightly bigger mountain to climb and because it is an imaginary mountain we can re-imagine it in our favour. Onwards and upwards!
1,2,3,We’ll being coming up the mountain, yes we will. We’ll be coming up the mountain yes we will, we’ll be coming up that mountain, coming up that mountain, coming up that mountain yes we will!
Lanarkist.
OT, but coming back to the ‘Brave’ cash being better spent alleviating a Tory tax on the poor/disabled initiated by Labour and which they haven’t said they’d repeal…
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-highlands-islands-24014661
Pixar’s Brave forecast to generate £120m in five years
CameronB, on the subject of the positive case for the union, word has it that they want to engage the services of Indiana Jones to search for it.
Of course he won’t accept as his dad who is a friend of the present First Minister has assured him that there is no such thing.
Also, on the subject of films, Bitter Together will be rejigging an old favourite and casting Johann Lamont as The Invisible Man but this time with a side-kick The Transparent Man. Casting still underway for this but Alistair Darling looking the likeliest.
muttley79
If a UN team were to come here, do a study, and publish a report saying exactly this, who would report it. No question mark, rhetorical question!
RevStu grossly overestimates the mountain. It’s more like this.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/caltonaerial.jpg
Look at the breakdown of the poll. The scary numbers are already six months old. We’ve been there and we’ve moved on from there. The rest of the figures show the gap narrowing just as we know it is. Stop panicking. They want you to panic. Don’t give them what they want.
Our mountain is best ascended from the shores of Loch Positivity, where parking is available and which gives an advantage of a few hundred metres over the alternative route via Glen Bitter. The path is faint in places and makes for an occasionally punishing ascent, while care must be taken to avoid the extensive Bogs of Scaremongering on the way up. The view from the summit is, however, well worth the effort – a spectacular panorama of Scotland’s place in the world.
All right; I’ve taken that too far…
Not at all BuckieBraes – excellent stuff! 😀
Climbing Suilven by Norman MacCaig
I nod and nod to my own shadow and thrust
A mountain down and down.
Between my feet a loch shines in the brown,
It’s silver paper crinkled and edged with rust.
My lungs say No;
But down and down this treadmill hill must go.
Parishes dwindle. But my parish is
This stone, that tuft, this stone
And the cramped quarters of my flesh and bone.
I claw that tall horizon down to this;
And suddenly
My shadow jumps huge miles away from me.
Great shot of Calton Hill.
Would be good to have another taken at around 14.00 on 21st!
And play ‘Spot The Difference!
Used this quote in three different ways on the Herald comments about the poll, each was deleted, all my other posts published as usual.
“The figures they claim represent what Scots think ought to be the government’s priorities exclude every single person who said the Scottish Government does have the right priorities.”
I didn’t mention the website or author it came from in the last post, still deleted!
The figures they claim represent what Scots think ought to be the government’s priority exclude every single person who said the Scottish Government does have the right priority. – See more at: http://brightgreenscotland.org/index.php/2013/09/no-campaign-straight-up-lie-about-lord-ashcroft-indyref-poll/#sthash.DrvOhlLX.dpuf
Wee reminder for anyone within striking distance of Irvine, Ayrshire – Canavan and Sturgeon tonight, 7.30, in the Volunteer Rooms, but it’s going to be busy so get there early if you want to be sure of a seat:
http://www.yesscotland.net/join_an_event
Great shot of Calton Hill.
Would be good to have another taken at around 14.00 on 21st!
And play ‘Spot The Difference!
You mean, like this?
http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-numbers-game/
Morag says: Stop panicking. They want you to panic. Don’t give them what they want.
Thanks Morag. I went into Tescos at lunchtime and saw all the headlines and then had a bit of a panic attack. Mind you, going into Tescos at any time does that to me.
@BuckieBraes
Stay well clear of the Forest of Fear!
@Brian Powell
MSM’s (and No campaign) message on independence referendum= No are going to win, it is a certainty, Yes are going to be hammered. Repeat endlessly.
@Mayor
Tesco’s are shit.
And the Brocken Spectre appears in the form of Alistair Darling!
Today is a good day to be gloomy. It is exactly 500 years since Flodden Field. Pause and think of the fallen. Sing The Flowers of the Forest quietly to yourself.
Then get up, shake off the blues, and know we’re going to win next year.
Looking at last year’s rally photos, how good was that turnout? Given that there was almost zero publicity in the media etc.
“Lord Ashcroft being a Tory, the questions centred around tax…” My bullsh*t detector went into meltdown and exploded, when it saw that wee gem.
How about growdfunding a profit and loss account exercise with the items then costed per Scottish taxpayer? Shouldn’t cost much.Presented as line items for use when out campaigning.There are several categories;
The current charges and non-assigned earnings-Trident,defence charges,national grid charges,ex regio oil and gas income from Scottish waters, upkeep of the Houses Common and Lords etc
Past incurred liabilities, as listed by James Arriere – PFi,Nimrod,BBC IT scheme etc.
Lost opportunities, reference the excellent recent blog on scottish exports credited to the UK, and the response above from Chris MaGregor on food and drink. We export the raw materials, England packages and returns to Scotland priced up, just like the good old empire days importing from India, Ceylon, etc.
@ Ian Brotherhood, keep me a seat for tonight! I don’t think I spoke to you at the Horseshoe bar, maybe can tonight.
Interesting to compare how the MSM polls looked in the run up to the 1979 referendum on devolution. Just a wee taster, over the final two week timescale the Yes vote went from 49 to 38%. The No vote increased from 26% to 38%. These final figures are the day before the referendum and as we know the final result was 52% Yes 48% No.
Seems like back then the polls got it more or less right, however you have to remember that the government of the day, Labour introduced the bill and it was a Labour member who got the amendment for the 40% rule. The right to have a referendum was an appeasement to growing SNP support, they had no intention of allowing it through.
http://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/2807/Scottish-Devolution-Referendum-Surveys-1979.aspx?view=wide
Q. If you do vote in this referendum will you vote for the setting up of a Scottish Assembly or not?
Base: All
12-14 February 197920-22 February 197927-28 February 1979
%%%
Yes, will vote for Scottish Assembly
49
45
38
No, will vote opposing Scottish Assembly
26
30
38
Will not vote
7
5
7
Don’t know/refused
19
20
17
Looking at last year’s rally photos, how good was that turnout? Given that there was almost zero publicity in the media etc.
Stu was worried it would be bad publicity because we’d be mocked if the turnout was poor. It quite obviously exceeded the organisers’ wildest dreams. The Ross Bandstand was significantly overfilled, and there were as many again in the gardens above and to the side (that photo doesn’t let you appreciate the width of the carriageway along the top, and that was packed).
I think they estimated maybe 5,000 if they were lucky, thought a top safety limit might be 7,000, and got close on 10,000. It was quite hard to move around inside the bandstand area, and people were climbing over the fence at the back to get in. It wasn’t a squeeze, it wasn’t Hillsborough, but the area was well above capacity.
The original plan was to have this year’s at the same venue, but that obviously had to be jettisoned when they saw how many they got. No way could that venue have taken many more. So we’re on the hill instead.
Of course the unionists played down the turnout, even describing it as “a personal humiliation for Salmond” although he had nothing to do with it and only appeared as a guest speaker for about three minutes. The press, shamefully, went along with that rather than using the evidence of their own eyes. But those of us who were there know how good it was.
Let’s have three times that number this month.
@BuckieBraes
The “Better No” guidebook says the path to the summit is poorly marked, surrounded by dangerous cliffs and shouldn’t be attempted by the inexperienced.
Furthermore the weather on the summit is always dreadful and on the rare occasions that the sun shines travellers are plagued by clouds of pestilential cybergnats.
It recommends that people should follow the well trodden route down Glen Bitter, where they should not deviate from the path indicated by the kindly laird, Sir Bufton-Tufton, as this might interfere with his quiet enjoyment of his vast hereditary estate.
Whom should I believe?
An opinion poll so accurate even the dreaded BBC haven’t used it yet.
So a tory polls various polls and gets the sort of results that unionists want re the referendum, what a coincidence, why do I get the feeling that when we have the full details they will make interesting reading?
This website is really good. I find the stuff written on it interesting but also penetrative. Good.
I’m going out to do some canvassing tonight. Maybe all the keyboard commandos should do likewise. Then, and only then, will we get the result we dearly need. No canvassing, no victory.
@Morag
Take a moment and behold.
Try again.
Q. If you do vote in this referendum will you vote for the setting up of a Scottish Assembly or not?
Base: All
12-14 Feb 197920-22 Feb 197927-28 Feb 1979
%%%
Yes, will vote for Scottish Assembly494538
No, will vote opposing Scottish Assembly263038
Will not vote757
Don’t know/refused192017
@ Ken Johnston
Actually trade statistics info is quite readily available. Those raving cybernats over at HM Revenue & Customs produce Regional Trade statistics (trade in goods) with tables that can be downloaded.
This site also carried an excellent piece written by Stuart M Darling which dealt with Scotland’s exports and drew on the Global Connections Survey (started in 2002 by the Lab-LibDem coalition I believe).
Aw, SS, now you’ve got me greetin, and me at work too.
Am I right in saying that we will have to wait until at least November before the publication of the White Paper on Scottish Independence.
Looking into the results tables, despite the fact that 26% say yes and 65% say no when the direct question was asked (last of all the questions I’ll point out), 45% of Scots say their attitude to independence is favourable and 49% say their attitude is unfavourable.
Oops, misread the results tables.
This poll has been so badly carried out it makes the data almost useless.
Project Fear’s relentless negativity has taken its toll – the Scottish Cringe is still pitifully alive and well. Overcoming that ancient disease and getting Scots to believe in themselves might just be the biggest single obstacle in the path of Yes Scotland.
To quote the many fans of Daniel Bryan (why haven’t Yes campaigners latched onto this? I know it’s the “wrasslin'”, but the idea of thousands of people chanting “YES!” is surely useful, eh?)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQxl1XnvDOE
@inbhir
Am I right in saying that we will have to wait until at least November before the publication of the White Paper on Scottish Independence.
Yes, although I have sure I read and interview with Nicola Sturgeon, in which it sounded as if they might delay it a bit. However, it is scheduled to be released in November, which is only two months away now.
Thanks for the replies,
Keith Brodie says:
9 September, 2013 at 4:17 pm
Chic McGregor says:
9 September, 2013 at 12:35 pm
@Ken Johnston
“Should have said, Re ‘Getting information on exports, products Scotland makes and exports, is hard.’ because it’s all UK UK UK.”
Keith thanks, I had already downloaded the Regional trade statistics.
What I had in mind was this company makes millions of tin whistles, while that one makes hopefully oil rigs. Speaking of which, I worked on the first one I think in Browns, Clydebank in 1962-3. A jack-up.
What I want is to be able to speak to a working, can I say class, guy and tell him as well as oil we make boats, and maybe the paint and the cabling, and the clips that secure the cabling to the trays, which we make as well, totties, Scotland is world class in breeding and seed btw, berries, mud pumps, oil pumps, turbines, the whole gamut of what we produce. Not 9.3 to 8.3 to 9.7 etc.
My wife’s hairdresser said, apparently, Norway OH! high taxes there. A friend of hers asked what would become of her pension. Down to earth answers needed. Another, what about my ISA’s. That from a Citizens Advice wuman, no less.
I think experts in a field, any expert, tends not to understand that others do not understand as he, she does.
An example, I remember my son-in-law gave me a 400 odd page book on coding in C++, my God, I would have had more chance of free-diving to the bottom of the Marianas Trench.
The battle for the “Fourth Estate” is where it will be won or lost! Keep the cartoons coming. We can all understand them!
Thanks to the prompt from Ian Brotherhood I attended the Yes meeting in Irvine tonight. Excellent presentations by Nicola Sturgeon and Dennis Canavan, and a big attendance.
9 days to half-time – a skliff of orange, a review of tactics, and back on the park for a fighting second half through to 18 Sept 2014.
@velofello-
It was very good indeed. I got to sit next to Nicola’s Mum! Front row too, so I couldn’t do a head-count, but sounded pretty full.
Anything interesting from the meeting Ian/Vellofello?
@ muttley: No there wasn’t any big revelations however I felt comfortable with the, I suppose, the homeliness of Nicola and Dennis, and the cordiality of the audience.
I’m of an age where the benefit of independence will be no more than the satisfaction of achieving independence, and that’s good enough for me. I’ll go put knocking doors and trying to encourage people to show interest and realise the benefits possible for them with independence.
What do you make of the Govan result?