We cannae dae it, Captain Darling
Forgive the mangled Star Trek/Blackadder reference, there.
We’ve been having a wee dig around in the just-released full data tables from today’s Panelbase poll, and found something we thought was particularly interesting, and which we don’t think anyone’s picked up on, because it’s a bit tricky to get your head round. Walk with us while we simplify it.
It comes about through the polling company’s helpful cross-referencing of some questions against each other. And what it reveals is this:
– of people currently planning to vote No, 82% do NOT believe that Scotland could be “a successful, independent country”. This is despite constant public assurances to the contrary from the No campaign.
– only 9% of No voters think an independent Scotland could be a success, with another 9% unsure of whether it could or not.
– conversely, a whopping 97% of Yes voters believe an independent Scotland could be successful, with 0% believing it couldn’t and 3% planning to vote Yes anyway despite not being completely certain of it.
There’s only one conclusion that can be drawn from this data – that despite constant protestations to the contrary, “too wee, too poor, too stupid” IS, officially or otherwise, still the main driving force of the No campaign. Almost everyone who thinks Scotland CAN make a go of independence is planning to vote for it.
So we suppose we should thank all the prominent anti-independence figures who’ve insisted that Scotland definitely could be successful as an independent nation (but should choose not to) for their backing. Like these fine people here:
“I have no time for those who say there is no way Scotland could go it alone. I know first-hand the contribution Scotland and Scots make to Britain’s success – so for me there’s no question about whether Scotland could be an independent nation.” (David Cameron, February 2013)
“The question is not whether Scotland can survive as a separate state. Of course it could” (Alistair Darling, June 2012)
“I reject the arguments that some people make on my side that Scotland is too poor and too stupid. ‘Cos I don’t think it is. I think it’s well capable of being a vibrant, successful nation.“ (Willie Rennie, July 2013)
“It is insulting to suggest, as many Labour politicians do, that, while Norway, Sweden and Denmark can exist happily on their own, Scotland could not. Of course Scotland can survive on her own; she is a strong and capable country full of brilliant and talented people.” (Tory MP Eleanor Laing, November 2012)
“This isn’t a question of whether or not Scotland could go it alone — of course Scotland could.” (George Osborne and Danny Alexander, April 2013)
“No-one from Better Together thinks that Scotland couldn’t go it alone.” (unnamed Better Together “spokesman”, April 2013)
Unless, that is, they’re saying one thing in public and then telling their supporters something completely different in private. Because even though we know people don’t trust politicians generally, and Unionist ones in particular, it seems awfully odd that so many of their own supporters don’t appear to believe a word they’re saying.
Is it that surprising..? No. Nice to be put in figures though…
What is the BT message ‘we won’t have any global clout’ about if not too poor etc?
” it seems awfully odd that so many of their own supporters don’t seem to believe a word they’re saying.”
Not so odd, It’s actually more likely that Most poll respondants have not listened/heard or are not particularly interested in what they have actually said.
How many of the respondents are basing their views on the actual debate rather than being faced with a bunch of questions on a subject they haven’t really been following?
Either way, it’s good news and shows that the actual stated vies of BT arn’t making it to anyone who isn’t paying attention closely.
Cue change of BT tack?
Splendid conclusion Stu.
Gordon Brown putting a positve case today
link to twitter.com
So the positive case for the union is based on Scottish unionists holding dear the notion that Scotland is “too wee, too poor, too stupid”, because they believe they are deriving benefit from a very low base. Now that is a dependency mindset.
The uk has the clout that no other country has, we sell weapons to countries, then when they use them, we bomb them.
In addition to this, we also have enough clout to be able to sell the ingredients to make chemical weapons, then when they use them, we bomb them.
So its a never ending clout building exercise…..you want to start a war? Buy weapons from us. We want to start a war, we sell you weapons. Clout. It’s great.
Clout makes our world go round.
whats going to happen to all those poor people who thought we couldnt be a sucessful country when theyve been proved so wrong,
their heads,ll explode it’ll be horrible
Curiously, Blair McDougall was very evasive on the question:
link to holyrood.com
Also there’s a pure logic conclusion there if you put the Horse before the Cart and don’t think Scotland can be successful then the only logical way to vote is No, no matter what BT has to say on the subject (unless you actually want us to make an arse of it)
In fact, thinking about it, when asking people who I know are voting no, the main reason they are voting no is because “we can’t afford it”
“vies”…… Views, I wrote views :0
All this guff, all stemming from BT’s positive case for Scotland !. They know sure know what they are doing, but do not seem to understand what they themselves are saying !
Nothing new in that,but they must cringe when they are reminded! Soar Wings !
If you did not laugh, you would cry.
I think this gets to the heart of the matter.
Look at the sequence the questions were asked in :
Q1: Could we do it ?
Q3 : Should we do it ?
Anyone that answered Yes to Q1 is going to answer Yes to Q3.
It all comes down to the credibility of the economic case (“Its the economy stupid”).
The economic case for Independence is overwhelming : read this if you aren’t convinced yet :
link to businessforscotland.co.uk
I don’t even think we need to convince everyone of that, all we need to do is get a ‘score-draw’ on that front. As long as people don’t believe we are going to be worse off then they will move to Yes (Q1 Doesn’t ask Will We ? It just asks Could We ?)
The revisionism begins…
Mike Smithson ?@MSmithsonPB 18m
The Panelbase SNP #indyref poll with YES lead did not ask voting question first. Previous questions likely to have influenced response
When it comes to the main televised debates in the final weeks before the referendum (the debates that almost everyone will actually watch), this could prove tricky for No Scotland.
For sure they’ll be pushed to confirm in each debate that they believe an indy Scotland can be a success and a lot of No/don’t know people will then question “why not give indy a go then?”
The No votes hinge is the Scottish Cringe. It doesnt exist by accident its encouraged while our culture and achievements are constantly denigrated and ignored.
The narrative of “plucky” Scotland, its just a one off for example that the first mammal was successfully cloned here, after all its not as if Scotland was the fucking driving force behind all of western civilizations notions of modern rationalism, empiricism and secular humanism.
Hard core Better Together believers always list what Scotland gets (or takes) from the Union. They never list what she contributes. The “best of both worlds”, “deeper pockets”, “safer together”, etc talk effectively categorises Scots as parasites – we need to live of other countries to thrive. Without our “host” we will wither.
This message is a big turn off for most Scots and it’s great to see many of their traditional supporters turning away from this.
I guess that repeating the “Scotland could indeed go it alone” narrative, whilst at the same time orchestrating a MSM barrage of scare stories and relentless negativity, will result in some confusion among voters. Perhaps that is the intention.
Vibrant and successful nation, according to Willie Rennie, yet he’s doing everything in his power to ensure Scotland wont expand its horizons.
Instead Rennie is conforming to his southern masters wishes, in order to shin up the greasy pole of advancement, at the cost of his own peoples future.
@sideshowmanny
Talk of televised debates reminds me just how many voters bought into Nick Clegg’s bullshit performance.
“van McKee says:
2 September, 2013 at 2:41 pm
I think this gets to the heart of the matter.
Look at the sequence the questions were asked in :
Q1: Could we do it ?
Q3 : Should we do it ?
Anyone that answered Yes to Q1 is going to answer Yes to Q3.”
I can’t agree there Ivan, there are plainly those who think that we can but don’t think we should, that’s the BT line.
It’s the other way about, if you think we should, by implication You have to think we can first (or have a screw loose)
Angus McPhee
I agree with you that “there are plainly those who think that we can but don’t think we should, that’s the BT line.” Everything that Alistair Darling says is framed that way. To me it is nonsensical.
To me this such a thought process is a crazy way to plan your life – I know I can do something to improve my life, but the critical question is “should I?”
Luigi says:
“orchestrating a MSM barrage of scare stories and relentless negativity, will result in some confusion among voters. Perhaps that is the intention”
Obfuscation and confusion are all the No camp have in their favour. They are counting on people not doing their own research and falling for the crap they broadcast through “their” media. Just like they have always done.
Boy, do they HATE the internet.
‘By their questions shall you know them’ Book of BT Bollocks 2013
Thanks Albalha for the link. I had a wee look over at United with Labour twiiter and noticed one of their slogans was ‘There is no Scotland only Britain’ Oh dear, how sad, where do I start? I won’t. Let’s let their own stupidity speak for them.
@ Angus McPhee
I think it comes back to the same thing.
If you can show people that we Can do it then the overwhelming majority of those are going to convert to Yes votes.
Or to put it another way you cannot increase the Yes vote WITHOUT convincing people of the facts of the economic case. (Out of 1043 people not a single one said we Couldn’t do it but was going to vote Yes anyway).
A very interesting finding, well spotted Rev. The more people get to know about the McCrone report, the better, in my opinion.
@Iain
“Mike Smithson ?@MSmithsonPB 18m
The Panelbase SNP #indyref poll with YES lead did not ask voting question first. Previous questions likely to have influenced response”
That’s an absolutely mental leap of logic being displayed there. On what planet are people not going to contemplate how successful independence could be before voting on it?
Got to love Mr McDougall’s second paragraph in that holyrood article!
Proof if proof were needed that supporters of No are actually quite disconnected from the referendum campaign and could easily if they engaged become don’t know supporters overnight.
However as a year is a long time in politics and as the campaign gathers momentum and as the Newspapers start to realize that to alienate so many people on one side that they are committing economic suicide then coverage will start to become more even.
If the No campaign don’t come up with a better together story quickly, then in the light of day their hysterical claims of barbed wire at the border and no-one from any other countries wanting to speak to us anymore will become more ludicrous sounding even to themselves with every passing day.
Easy to see the prediction of running out of steam will so easily come to pass!
It’s almost like BT and the MSM are saying:
“Yes, an independent Scotland could be a succesful country, but…
but we really don’t want you to believe that!”
“Look into the crystal ball, look into the crystal ball”
“When I say that Scoitland could be succesful, you are NOT going to believe me!”
Better Together: mixed messages r us
Great analysis as ever Rev and it is good to have the quotations from Cameron et al. Always a pleasure to use these quotes when discussing aspects of Indy with oor Unionist chums down the pub etc!
Of course this is what drives the ‘Project Fear’ mindset.
They know all too well that once people start thinking that Scotland COULD be a successful independent country, that is likely to translate into a yes vote.
Hence all the scaremongering.
It must actually be pretty depressing knowing that you have to build on people’s fears and insecurities to win a campaign.
Well spotted Rev, that’s a beaut. 🙂
“Well spotted Rev, that’s a beaut.”
Credit is properly due to another Wings contributor, whose name I’ve withheld because he shouldn’t have been buggering around with psephology while he’s supposed to be doing his proper job…
Of course BT will attack the poll – let’s face it many may well have choked on their cornflakes this morning. However, the attack will be more for their own consumption thatn ours, to soothe those poor cornflake damaged throats.
However there were no occult practices in those two questions. The conclusion..
Do you believe in Scotland? Do you prefer Holyrood? Vote Yes
The whole shooting match can be reduced to 60 characters.
The most interesting result as reported in the Courier was the divergence between male and female views.
Men
Yes 50%
No 38%
Don’t Know 12%
Women
Yes 38%
No 47%
Don’t Know 17%
Now I believe that women are generally more cautious but the difference in voting intentions between the genders is striking. If you are male then we need to be discussing the possibilities for the success of an Independent Scotland more often with our mothers, wives, sisters, daughters and nieces.
Another thing to note about the figures is that, of those who think Scotland COULD be an independent country, 80% of them also think we SHOULD be an independent country. Which just goes to show – if people know that Scotland CAN do it, they’ll back independence.
And that’s why unionists spread the too wee, too poor, too stupid type rubbish when campaigning, and why all we need to do to win is to let people know the facts.
In other news today: Huzzah! The Former Prime Mentalist is as Mental As Ever.
And according to Blair McDougall, he’s “Awesome”!
Just for clarification the Women figure for Don’t Know should have been 14%. I read the wrong column.
McDougall’s article states “An odd feature of Alex Salmond’s independence campaign has been to constantly challenge the pro-devolution campaign to say whether we think Scotland could be an independent country”
Wait, the what campaign?
He does know ‘devolution’ isn’t on the plebiscite, doesn’t he?
I also see his article as getting his retaliation in first regarding the White Paper. Nicola Sturgeon in an earlier Hollyrood magazine article made it perfectly clear that the White Paper will address the issues that can be addressed (for example the ‘route map’ to independence) but, it will be for individual parties contesting the 2016 elections to tell the Scottish public what their intentions are for tax, welfare, social justice (the White Paper will give the SNP’s ‘manifesto’ – should it be re-elected).
There’s a wind change coming folks, ah can feel it in ma watter.
@RoddyMcDonald
That’s the point of course, at best, they can only be 2015 manifesto commitments and we all know what can happen to them.
At the risk of sounding a bit daft I would vote for independence even if wee were worse off because I just can’t live with these people any more.
@dmw42
Yes that was brought up at the BT meeting by Ruth D that NS won’t address your concerns about pensions, welfare etc in the White Paper. No context of course.
@Gordon Bain
So would I, in fact that’s the main reason I am now a YES supporter. Are you and I the only daft ones? I doubt it.
Rev. Stuart Campbell says: Curiously, Blair McDougall was very evasive on the question:
link to holyrood.com
I read all this and thought ‘what a load of incoherent and self-delusional drivel’. It just looks like a first year politics essay hastily written to a Monday morning deadline in the wee small hours after a long Sunday in the union bar. Long may he continue in post.
Interestingly in the Panelbase Poll all the female groups when asked question 2)Who do you trust to take the best decisions for Scotland Holyrood or Westminster.
Females between the ages of 18/34 agreed 58% Holyrood
Females between the ages of 35/54 agreed 52% Holyrood
Females aged 55 plus 42% agreed Holyrood
Yet the same female catagories whe asked if they intended to vote YES to independence in 2014 answered
Females between the ages of 18/34 46% said no to independence
Females between the ages of 35/54 40% said no to independence
Females 55 plus 51% said no to independence
The female catagories seem to point to a liking of Holyrood governing Scotland, but not an independent Scotland.
82% of 43% = 35%. 1/3 core no. Just like MORI when you dig deep.
In Yougov, ~80% of SNP voters are for Indy, with ~10% against and ~10% DK. Excellent match for when you ask people online anonymously.
Phone them up however, and suddenly only 60% saying Yes with 20% DK and 20% No.
Weird huh? Not really – it’s called the shy indy factor.
I think this Brown stuff today could well backfire. How many voters think that Westminster could reverse the devolution agreement, that it’s not enshrined in law.
Another image of the man himself
link to google.com
In yougov and panelbase sorry…
And from this image how many were actually there, looks like a pokey wee room to me.
link to google.com
Reading the BT newsletter that’s just come out…. they are spooked!
@Albalha
Yes, looks pokey enough and how many exactly do you think just wandered in off the street. My guess is approximately NONE. All invited Labourites.
@Thepnr
To be fair it is for Labour Party members (who want to pretend they’re not in this NO campaign with the coalition partners), so wasn’t billed as public.
Scotland will vote to leave the UK next year…
Dear XXXXXXXXXX
…that is what a new poll, carried in some newspapers seems to suggest today. For the first time in this contest the anti-UK campaign has a poll lead over our campaign.
We could just dismiss this poll. We could say that because the poll was commissioned by the SNP you should ignore it. Or we could point you to another, independently commissioned poll at the weekend which showed Scots are turning against independence.
Today’s poll only has the nationalists ahead by 1% but that is enough for them to win. And they only need to win once – if we leave the UK there will be no going back.
So today I am asking you to stand up and be counted. If you ever thought this referendum was already won, today should come as a warning of what will happen if we are complacent or if we take the voters for granted. If you don’t want the front pages to look like this next year you need to stand up and play your part.
We are planning our biggest ever week of campaigning later this month. We will send you details of how to get involved in a few days but today we are asking you to donate what you can so that we can take our message to every community in Scotland.
Don’t wake up the day after the referendum and wish you had done more.
Thanks for your support.
Blair
Blair McDougall
Campaign Director
Better Together
Albalha “and from this image” – ‘I did it myyyyyyyy waaaaahaaaaay’
@beachthistle
Thanks for posting that, very illuminating, I’m expecting YOUR COUNTRY NEEDS YOU posters next.
You’ve hit the nail on the head Stu.
The deceptive BT line of vote NO and get more powers appears to be a red herring. The challenge is to get the economic facts disclosed.
Interesting if Gordon Brown becomes trotted out more, given his record for attending at Westminster, are his constituents really better represented if he doesn’t turn up?
Any way to just ask The People of Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath if they get better representation in Westminster or Holyrood?
Prof John Curtice finds fault with the SNP poll, surprise, surprise!
McDougall is bricking it.
He may not see out the year and lose his nice wee salary and in-house ranking.
I am quite happy with that.
@Rev Stu
Credit is properly due to another Wings contributor, whose name I’ve withheld because he shouldn’t have been buggering around with psephology while he’s supposed to be doing his proper job…
Who was that masked psephologist? (cue William Tell overture).
Well spotted by them. 🙂
I do apologise if this is old news
http:www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-23928465
John Mullin appointed as independence referendum director.
And they’ve apparently sent this out too
link to twitter.com
Pro-independence campaign storms back into the lead for first time since 2011
It was fairly obvious from the hints being dropped on Twitter last night that a new Panelbase poll on the independence referendum was on its way, and that it was far more favourable for Yes than yesterday’s YouGov poll (which we now know was indeed tainted by using a leading question that painted independence in a pejorative light). However, I couldn’t have imagined quite how favourable it would prove to be –
link to scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk
Why does Better Together need more money, are their Tory paymasters refusing to cough up more dough?
Talking of Crystal balls!
link to arcofprosperity.org
Well that No vote to intervention in Syria has apparently damaged UKOKs international reputation, according to BBC and its beyond reproach polling! What clout exactly?
@Albalha
wouldn’t the Scotsman have to authorise that use of their banner by BT?
scottish_skier says:
At a major supermarket the other week, Im wearing a yes badge. The check out lady asks. Whats the badge for, I explain. Oh yes she says me and all my friends are voting yes, we dont go to any meetings, take any leaflets, listen to politicians or participate in anything, we are all just going to vote yes. Nothing shy about her and I suspect lots of people like her are out there.
re Thepnr
On you post about sex differences on voting intentions! I see a lot of shelves going up in your future? lol!
I wonder how many of the NOs are really DON’T KNOWs, who respond to a hypothetical question about voting tomorrow, think, “Well, if the referendum was being held tomorrow, I probably would vote NO because I need more time to think about it and I haven’t really had the time to think about it yet. Therefore, it’s a NO.” “If the vote was tomorrow” let’s the DON’T KNOWs off the hook. We are now approaching the “one year to go” mark. Surely, it is now time to ask people what are they intending to vote in the referendum in Septemebr 2014, and not tomorrow? If this grealty increases the number of DON’T KNOWs for a while, then so be it – at least it will provide a more accurate sounding of public opinion.
@Eva
You know I’m not sure, I’m afraid.
Macart – We’ll never know who this masked psephologist is, but I’m sure he (err, or she) is a total genius.
beachthistle – Thanks for sharing that. Despite having a fake email account signed up to get BT emails, I’ve not gotten that one yet. Considering the tone of Blair McDougall yesterday on Twitter, it sounds like he knew this poll result was coming. In fact, I dare say they’ve known this would be coming sooner or later for a while now, as their own private polling will have been showing the tide turning against them.
Now we know why there’s been such a concerted smear campaign against folk like Labour For Indy and Wings Over Scotland!
@Albalha – I haven’t a clue either, just wondered.
@ Doug Daniel – check junk – BT’s messages to me all arrive there beforeI forward them to my YES! pals 🙂
So Better Together writes the headlines for the Scotsman. Who knew?
@Eva
I’ve had a quick look and I reckon not as from what I can see Trade Mark infringment would need to be for financial gain, lead to confusion in the minds of readers and advertisers, though not 100% sure.
Of course in this mock up case it’s more of the same from the Scotsman, no confusion at all!
Can someone commission a poll with just one Question do you think? seems to be the most sensible way to avoid this leading question/position issue.
“How do you intend to vote in the Forthcoming Scottish Referendum Yes/No/Don’t know.”
No other Questions, no leading paragraph, no guessing.
@ Albalha – arguably it is for financial gain though given that the purpose is to seek donations for BT. Perhaps it is mischief making, but maybe someone should ask the Scotsman. Wonder what they would have to say if YES! did a similar mockup? 🙂
Big mistake by Blair MacDougall in not only trying to make it personal with the newsletter but also in the way he did it with a faux front page.
That fake Scotsman front page may prove his undoing.
@Eva You have a point, we need a media lawyer on the case. Of course it’s possible the Scotsman ok’d it, interesting all round.
The poll now analysed by John Curtis on What Scotland Thinks:
link to blog.whatscotlandthinks.org
In the supermarket this afternoon the checkout chappie (early twenties) spots the YES badge “like the badge” he says with a huge grin ” Roll on the day I reply” “absolutely” he says “We can do it” fair put a lift in my step.
Re. Blair McDougall’s piece in the Holyrood mag. I am afraid I couldn’t get past the first paragraph. As I am vegetarian, mince is off the menu.
“….the last twelve months has seen the credibility of the nationalist case for separation crumble.”
Wullie:
Nothing shy about her and I suspect lots of people like her are out there.
Why would she be shy? You told her what your badge was for.
Now when a nice lady from MORI london phones up… Well, some might say ‘DK’ rather than Yes. People do this in polls; they say what they think is the right thing. Not all, but a modest section.
We have a YES! Board propped up in the windscreen of our motorhome and have travelled all over Scotland like that in the past couple of months. We had far more toots, peeps, waves and thumbs-ups than scowls or growls.
There is a wind of change blowing through Scotland :-). BT know that too.
@ss
What’s your view on the order of the q’s in the SNP poll?
@Eva
Just had another random thought on the mock up, maybe the idea was to make it available to a ‘private’ list of people now of course it’s all over the place, that may make a difference.
Eva,
Yep, a YES board in your vehicle is a brilliant way to advertise your support.
You can drive around all day with it, and remove it anytime if/when you are worried about any disagreeable types deliberately marking your parked car etc,
What’s your view on the order of the q’s in the SNP poll?
People have tried this and it makes no difference within a % or two unless the individual questions themselves are very leading. A % or two is standard variance so it may not have any effect at all.
The questions themselves don’t lead you to anything. If the first one had been ‘Scotland generates more tax that it gets back and the Tories plan to shaft it should you vote No so do you support indy?‘ that would be a leading question. None of them are.
I think the Yes did well because the poll actually asked the bloody question! It didn’t ask what people would do in a hypothetical referendum held the morn, but what they’d do 1 year away in the real one. People answered the question based on their current feelings.
It gave a truer picture of people’s thoughts at this instant.
The referendum question asked was what should be asked at each time.
@ss
Thanks again for your take on things, you know I think come the day I’ll know more about the art of polling and its analysis than I ever imagined possible!
@Albalha – I don’t know if the Scotsman front page went out in the email or a tweet, I have today’s BT email and didn’t see it there. If it was a tweet, then the extent of the audience is unpredictable, but either way I think the Scotman should be asked their view. They either endorse BT to use that now, or they don’t. Maybe a win/win, but then we never ask a question if we don’t know the answer in advance, do we ? 🙂
@ Luigi – note that the board is always hidden come nightfall 🙂
Andy-B
John Mullin, ex-Deputy Editor of The Scotsman. ‘Nuff said.
@pmcrek
2 September, 2013 at 2:43 pm
The No votes hinge is the Scottish Cringe.
I prefer to call it the UNIONIST cringe!
Before we get tooooo carried away with all this, you need to look at what the BTs are saying. First, there’s a very quick, let’s-get-this-out-of-the-way throw-away line, “of course we could be an independent country”, but very quickly they pounce on the main message of their campaign, which is that that Alex Salmond and his crowd of sneaky, conniving cohorts are pushing us down an independence slope when even they don’t know how it’s going to turn out! First we’re going into the Euro, then when Europe implodes, it’s no problem, we’ll just keep the pound, without so much as a by your leave to the rest of the UK. How could anyone vote for that kind of independence? It’s simply madness.
So when people who are unsure about independence hear the question, “Could Scotland be an independent country?”, what they’re hearing is, “Do you really believe that Alex Salmond and his crowd of acolytes could take Scotland out of the UK and be on our own without huge unknowns and massive risks?”
It’s been like this from the start – their message is think about the huge risk of voting for “Alex Salmond’s break up of the UK”, not the fact that Scotland could easily be an independent country.
BT are so rattled, Duncan H is claiming that both of these polls are compromised, don’t see where he gets that from re Panelbase though.
Eva
It is compromised because it was not asked for by and/or did not give the result that BetterTogether* wanted.
* Or whichever independent** group.
** acceptable to BetterTogether
Eva says:
2 September, 2013 at 5:20 pm
@Albalha – I don’t know if the Scotsman front page went out in the email or a tweet, I have today’s BT email and didn’t see it there.
•••••••••••
It’s in the email I have
Gordo Broon getting an airing on Distorting Scotland BBC1 6.30pm.
@Eva
Probably from John Curtice, though above @scottish skier gives his take on why he doesn’t think the Panelbase poll and its order of questions is a problem.
Methinks the SNP really know their onions when it comes to getting realistic and hence credible polling done. And Curtice knows that too. BT, with their arrogance and complacency, haven’t prepared for this so soon. Our Poll should be a REV-elation.
Speaking of Naysayers and almost totally off topic, does anyone know what has become of ‘Jezerna Roza’? She was all over the Herald comments sections like a rash for months and is now conspicuous by her total absence. I warned the Herald mods that ‘she’ was a fake and probably had no individual existence and got a severe ticking off as a result and a threat to moderate me. However they also asked me to tell them if I came up with any hard evidence and I wonder if they have now banned her,
@ Albalha and @ Doug – yes of course, silly me 🙂
@ Angus McPhee, better check my email again thank you.
This wee extract from Blair McDougals article linked to by Rev. Stu
“Inferred in that central nationalist argument, that Scotland can only be truly self-confident by leaving the UK, is a suggestion that inside the UK we are somehow less proudly and completely Scottish. But do any of us really feel any less proud of our identity just because we are part of a bigger United Kingdom?”
My answer to that is a big fat Yes!
@ Angus McPhee – yes you’re quite right thank you 🙂
Given that the image is contained in a plea for funds, I think that gives cause for The Scotsman to confirm or otherwise their endorsement of this.
@eva
Someone needs to put a call into the Scotsman …………….
We all know the truth. I don’t know ANY commited No voter.
Possibly Dundee is different, but the Scots have never voted No when more powers are on offer.
No wonder the BritNats are shiteing themselves.
@Albalha
The second Getty photograph you linked – states at the bottom – British Prime Minister Gordon Brown etc etc – wonder if David Cameron knows that!!
The first one does say former Prime Minister though.
@ Albalha – after you 😉
@juteman
Dundee has, thankfully, shown Labour the door, I’m proud Dundee will return a YES vote, though mine will be in Glasgow.
@Eva …..I’m not sure I can blag my way through on my ex BBC credentials, though still have my identity pass!
I’ll let you know.
@eva
Well I phoned them up and have to say they seemed rather non plussed ‘not intending to cover it tomorrow, rather busy trying to get the paper out’.
@ Albalha – so they aren’t bothered at all? Willl be interesting to see what they lead with tomorrow.
@eva Hard to call, I phoned their newsdesk and asked if they’d any opinion on it, seems they hadn’t heard.
But it’s always a classic fob off, I HAVE A PAPER TO PRINT, so piss off!
You know having been part of that world they really do take themselves rather too seriously. Though have to say I was part of the classier end of it all, until I decided to get out. That of course is my view!
MSM Journalism in Scotland is truly a disgrace, in the main. There are shining lights David Pratt, Ian Bell come to mind and Mark Daly for the BBC.
@CameronB
“the last twelve months has seen the credibility of the nationalist case for separation crumble”
What, we’re having a new celebration dessert named on 18th September, 2014?? Apple or Rhubarb? Yummy! Can’t wait 🙂
@ Albalha – sounds like they know and maybe don’t know quite how to react?
“the last twelve months has seen the credibility of the nationalist case for separation crumble”
LOL That is so artless and corny. I sometimes wonder if the BT lot are actually trying.
On John Curtice, slightly harsh review, but it is the first significant poll that has given the Nay Sayers a fright so it is bound to get a bit of a going over. I do agree with him that it points in the direction of strength for the Yes campaign. Holyrood is more trusted than Westminster and a majority do have faith in Scotland as a country. Align those two points with a Yes vote and you have a straight line.
I heard on the radio that Brown has said that Better Together have to get a Devo Something on the table before Sept 18th. I wonder if they see his contribution as an assist or a kick in the testimonials.
@eva
Not sure, to be honest.
@Juteman
At 7; 07pm
Dundee must be very different indeed. Here in west central it is the opposite. I don’t know of any committed local Yes voters. ;-(
The Man in the Jar
In the west too and I know a few. I think people are being pretty quiet about it. It was barely mentioned in my office until very recently and I was gob smacked to find out that it was about 50/50 with about a third saying they never vote/don’t know. I guess about a third of the population do rarely vote and if we get a 65 to 70% turnout we will most likely think it pretty good. So the polls showing things pretty close might not be so far wide of the mark.
I work in a factory, so there isn’t any shyness. Folk are fat bastards, specky bastards, ginger bastards, etc, etc. 🙂
Any time I bring up Indy, I haven’t heard a single definate No. A few ‘Salmond is a fat bastard’, but my slowly, slowly tactics are working on them.
Also in Dundee and it would appear to be a big YES from what i hear, however cousin from Glasgow big Rangers fan and to my surprise told me YES.
Nothing against Rangers fans Rod! still I was surprised.
@ Juteman, that’s exactly how it is on the building sites mate, fat bastard can be a term of endearment , in all my going on about it I have only spoken to 3 total utter never changing their mind no’s. at least 50% are definate Yes, probably a bit more, the Salmonds a fat power grabbing bastard types seem to say it to reel in some of the more shouty Yes boys, but you know when you present the facts calmly, and say and I can prove it look, here’s the website and this is what’s being said , what do you think now. You know it’s being absorbed and you can see the wheels turning. The message is getting out to most of them.
The final paragraph of this article is why WOS does so well – sort of hard to respond to if a No voter, hits the nail on the head.
Which leads me to Mr Darling and clout. One definition in the Oxford dictionary is a nail with a large head.
One thing for sure over the next year is that opinion polls may ebb and flow, and bullshit spread by Better Together but the economic facts will not ebb and flow and so the certainty of a prosperous independent Scotland will become clearer to even the declared. disinterested in politics.
I don’t believe the question order could have gotten 8% more people to say Yes than in the last Panelbase poll.
My best guess is the “How do you intend to vote” phrase encouraged undecideds to answer what they think they will end up voting for. And it looks like most want more reassurance before they commit themselves to voting yes. Few will vote no if their heart isn’t in it.
I don’t think this poll tells us how things currently stand, however I think it gives a good indication what the eventual result will be.
@HandandShrimp
@Juteman
I’m just back in from walking the dug!
I am no longer a wage slave so no work experiences to relate to, just folk I meet out and about.
Unfortunately no “Yes” group in my area. There is Yes Uddingston and Bellshill but it isn’t really it is “Uddingston” North and Bellshill. Uddingston North is not even in the same county as Uddingston.
(North Lanarkshire / South Lanarkshire M74 is boundary!) I am not an organiser but I keep a weary eye out for Yes Uddingston and /or Bothwell.
Bothwell is a funny one. There is a sizeable area of local authority housing 50/50 bought but it was once a pit village although the pit shut in the 50s there is a strong residual labour vote. The other side is that it is “An affluent Glasgow satellite village” Lots of Victorian “mansions which change hands at about £1,000,000 I don’t know of the voting intentions of the affluent population as they are hard to talk to as they waft past in their Overfinsh Range Rovers! The roads around the local primary at 3pm looks like the car park of Top Gear.
Still, plenty of time yet.
Forgive the mangled Star Trek/Blackadder reference, there.
Forgive? I shall rather thank you for the delightful mental image of a 23rd Century Blackadder.
In any case, this doesn’t surprise me in the slightest. The vast majority of people who I’ve personally engaged with who aren’t voting yes are very much of the TWTPTS variety, the only exception being my federalist friend. Every one of them asks “where are we going to get the money,” “what if the oil runs out,” “what if we end up like Greece/Bosnia/Cyprus etc.” I actually brought this up on the radio, specifically citing the fact that the major movers-and-shakers of Better Together THEMSELVES say Scotland could succeed as an independent nation.
That said, I think a major factor is as much due to a severe case of self-confidence issues in so many Scots. After what they’ve put up with – mass unemployment, deindustrialisation, the Brain Drain, cuts after cuts – it’s no wonder so many think Scotland couldn’t make it. What we need to do is inspire confidence in people. Back in the mid-20th Century, Inverclyde was world-class when it came to shipbuilding and port travel, with hundreds of thousands of people moving through and living in the area. Now there’s only 60,000 or so, most of the shipyards are closed down, and unemployment rendering the area near Soviet Bloc status. It’d be easy for people to give into despair, to think that Inverclyde could never achieve that success again – I say that it could, and it would. And in an independent Scotland, I truly believe that Inverclyde could be invigorated: no longer would money be channeled off down south to benefit English ports, the money Scotland makes would be spent on Scotland’s industries.
My mother once said she dreamed that in the future, Inverclyde’s shipyards would be building not steamers or puffers, but starships. Might be a bit of a way off yet, but there’s no reason we can’t make a start.
Was your mother on crack?
Anyway, Aberdeen will vote yes. It’s my city and I won’t let a no vote win.
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