The definition of insanity
A famous quote commonly attributed to Albert Einstein (and hotly disputed, as always, by point-missing Quote Nazis), runs that “the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results”.
It’s been bouncing around our heads for the last couple of days, because with the SNP annual conference in full swing in Glasgow, Scottish political pundits have taken it upon themselves to start issuing bizarre assertions/advice about the party’s strategy for securing a second independence referendum.
This version, from the Herald’s cut-price David Torrance knockoff Mark Smith today, is no more than we’d expect from that source:
But we were a lot more surprised to see the notion also being taken up by someone we’d previously credited with a lot more insight and intelligence.
Because the same idea was also put forward yesterday by the SNP’s highly-regarded former director of strategic communications, Kevin Pringle, in the Sunday Times:
And it’s such startling obvious nonsense that we’re not quite sure what’s happened.
Because of course, there’s ALREADY an electoral mandate for another referendum, a parliamentary majority for it, and an actual vote of that parliament demanding it. The UK government has nonetheless felt entirely able to flatly refuse:
The Unionist parties have repeatedly made it clear that even if the SNP won more than 50% of the vote in a new general election with a second referendum in their manifesto, they would continue to refuse it:
And both main UK parties have reiterated that position explicitly in the last few days, with Ruth Davidson insisting that any vote in the term of the next parliament would also be rejected, and Labour saying that they’d put a ban in their manifesto.
So we’re at a loss as to why a smart guy like Pringle would imagine that anything would change, particularly as polling currently suggests that the SNP would see their 2021 vote share decline compared to 2016, and the pro-indy parties would lose their Holyrood majority.
By any measure that would be a very significantly weaker position for the pro-indy parties to be arguing from, and it’s very hard indeed to imagine how – with no leverage whatsoever – it could persuade the UK government to change its mind.
(Indeed, the stated foundation of Pringle’s position is that the UK government would only ever grant a second referendum if it was completely certain it would result in another victory for No. Whoopee.)
Moral arguments hold no sway at Westminster. Even when Scotland returned 56 SNP MPs out of 59 in 2015, having indeed given the SNP an unprecedented half of the popular vote, the UK government simply trampled all over them with the crushing weight of English numbers – rejecting every amendment tabled for the Scotland Bill, including one to give Holyrood power over future referendums, even though that power is consistently backed by a very large majority of ALL Scottish voters.
Westminster understands only the language of force, which means there are only two possible practical ways to bring about a second indyref. One is to hold the balance of power in a minority Labour government and dare it to refuse power in the name of blocking Scottish democracy:
(It can only work on a minority Labour government, because the SNP couldn’t under any circumstances vote to put the Tories in power. This, incidentally, is also why it’s just monumentally stupid to vote Scottish Labour if you want independence – you’d be actively throwing away your own bargaining chips, because obviously Scottish Labour MPs won’t make a second indyref a condition of installing a Labour government.)
And the other is to secure a legal decision on the matter of competence which the Edinburgh Agreement of 2012 kicked down the road – the approach this site has advocated for some time. (And which has the benefit of being a free hit – if we win it’s an absolutely huge victory, if we lose and the Court says it’s Westminster’s decision to make then we’re no worse off than we are now.)
Either of those strategies is valid, and both can of course be pursued at the same time. But sitting on our hands for several more years just hoping for the UK government to have an inexplicable and irrational sudden change of heart after we’re already out of the EU is a level of madness you don’t need to be Einstein to spot.
Yup – I voted, the mandate was utterly crystal clear. Voting again for that mandate is pointless.
If they won’t give you a referendum, then like every other nation that wants to get rid of its colonial masters, simple have one.
Let the courts argue, that 2012 agreement did set a precedent. Clear mandates trump flat out head buried in sand.
Couldn’t agree more, Stu.
I only hope some of these strategists don’t hold too much sway over the party leadership because there is no doubt that sitting around hoping for some ‘fantasy permission’ which will emerge after 2021 (when we cannot even know if we will be in a position to vote it through the Scottish parliament again) is lunacy. The British parties will now always be intractable on the question of an indyref 2.
The most common objection (which might be what the likes of Pringle etc are subscribing to by arguing that ‘we need another mandate and they won’t be able to ignore it this time’) is that ‘it didn’t count, because the Greens didn’t have it in their manifesto and the SNP didn’t have a majority’.
This is abject nonsense. If this is now the way things are supposed to be, then either junior partners in any coalition or confidence and supply agreement have to have identical manifestos to the larger party before anything can be voted through and enacted, or nothing will be allowed to be voted through (ever) if there’s not a majority government (I wonder how all the countries of Europe with PR systems would like that?).
Of course, the people arguing that line don’t really mean that. They’re just trying to make up special rules for ‘that thing I don’t like’.
And what Pringle and others are possibly missing is that, if it suits them, the British parties will just make up more new rules and laugh as Yes plays by them again.
In real terms if we want Independence we have to take it.
…I struggle to understand why the support for Independence is not at 70 percent never mind 50.
Listened today to the Beeb R4 telling us that Wee Nikki is now ‘supporting the People’s Vote’.
She said no such thing. We did hear her say that she was not ruling out such a vote. That is an entirely different thing.
What is the BBC up to this time?
The only way to get independence is to take it.
The problem is that there is nothing stopping Westminster saying ‘No’ to a referendum forever. This makes us look weak as we don’t appear to have any bargaining power. We need to get some leverage.
I have advocated for the SNP to put a promise of UDI in the event of a substantial victory in a Westminster or Holyrood election, (something like +50% of votes and +50% of elected representatives). This opens up a new route to achieve independence but it also gives our opponents a reason to concede a referendum.
Not to use the current mandates would be extremely unwise.
The SNP must stop playing by Westminster rules. If there’s one thing we know about britnat Westminster, after three centuries of so-called union, is that it is totally untrustworthy.
Indeed. The mandate exists, we need to use it in this electoral term. This idea we should wait and hope London comes around is a road to no where.
We do need to find out what damage Brexit is going to do tho, which means being patient for now.
But to be clear. The current mandate is cast steel! Even tougher than cast iron which shatters on impact.
Scotland is too valuable to the Union for it ever to be allowed to leave.
Loss of the -real wealth- of Scotland COLLAPSES the house of cards of CLAIMS ON WEALTH the CITY trades in. It is Ragnarok/etc
Gameplay is as follows
1. Stop a second indy ref ever happening. (Which is why I think ASAP is the best idea, even if we “dont have the numbers” – fuck opinion polls)
2. Win it LEGIT, albeit with total propaganda, illicit electioneering methods, the usual dirty tricks – sex scandals, financial scandals, provocations, false flags
3. Rig it, if needed. Preferred attack vector – the postal ballot. We need to knock that shit on the head – but there may be other, novel methods in play.
4. Lose it, refuse to recognise it. WHIT-YE-GONNAE-DAE
5. Full on dirty tricks – rioting by organised orange mobs, bombs going off – cause chaos – stop the food lorries for a week – then bring in martial law to reintroduce “law and order”. Nationalist leaders get blamed for it.
6. Shut Holyrood down, back to DIRECT RULE.
At points 4/5/6 you really need HAUNERS from some stronger power to ensure FAIR PLAY from the UK deep state – the only power that can do this is the USA, which is why having a good relationship with the US President of the time, MIGHT be a good idea. The UK is the vassal state of the US, it got put in its place by SUEZ – there is no “special relationship”. The EU is of no use in these matters – see “catalonia”.
I assume our leaders know all this and more and are conjuring the appropriate 4-dimensional chess moves. Sometimes you need to force your opponent to make some move in order to gauge their strength.
Leaving the Empire is best done when it is fully occupied – be the spinning plate that crashes.
Perhaps Mr. Pringle is simply overly cautious?
Intelligence and Stupid Behavior
Non-cognitive contributors to irrationality
link to psychologytoday.com
Cognitive Distortions: When Your Brain Lies to You
link to positivepsychologyprogram.com
A Cognitive Perspective on Social Phobia
link to pdfs.semanticscholar.org
“The aim would also be to win the 2021 election based on a promise to hold another independence referendum, which would make it impossible for a prime minister to say no”
Aw what a shame, if only the SNP had gone into the 2016 election with a promise to hold another independence referendum, and then won it, then we’d currently be in the position where it would be impossible for a Prime Minister to say no…
I wonder if the Scottish Government just went ahead in Holyrood with a bill/vote to simply “Dissolve the Treaty of Union” as not being fit for purpose.
Maybe it would just be window dressing, but it could also be a rather large shot across the British Nationalist bows and also a boost for Scotland.
Such a move would send a very clear message to London and the BritNats.
Lol. Given the level of British State interference in Scottish politics, on so many levels, I would eat my hat if they were to ever allow the SNP to gain another majority in Holyrood.
As the lady once said ‘There are powers at work in this country about which we have no knowledge’
Yeah, you better believe it missus, don’t we know it. 🙁
We fluffed it. Lost the chance.
If your gonna go after the king, make sure you put him down. The chance was missed and all the steady polls mean nothing. Westminster will never grant another Section 30.
The mandate was won and is there but SNP Govt see too low numbers for YES to even chance a win. Another quick loss and its over forever, to be honest it probably already is.
Sadly, the SNP have painted themselves into a corner with the “Lets just wait and see about Brexit” patience card.
Being so accommodating and patient might seem diplomatic and indeed adult and considerate but there has been a massive lost opportunity in highlighting the disaster that is current and future UK.
Being so generally nice for all has taken our eye of the prize. The last thing I wanted was to hear “We will support a second Peoples referendum on Brexit”…the focus should have been on “second Indy referendum” all the time.
Im an SNP member of ling standing so sad to admit but we forgot the first rule of Independence fight club “We focus on independence”
@Richard Hunter
Its a nice idea but how would it work?
This of all the manifesto promises that never get delivered.
Why would a statement in another make any difference? Just because a party campaign on an idea doesn’t mean it could be practically enacted if dependent on another Parliaments decisions.
In all this may be the most depressing post from the Rev.
Judging by the Revs figures, we are looking at the SNP becoming another Westminster Sinn Feinn…as well worth not turning up at Westminster as their votes mean nothing whilst back home the Labour, Tories and Lid Dems will conspire to remove any chance of power…casting SNP into wilderness..popular but powerless.
We will know the outcome of Brexit before 2021 and therefore I would be inclined to go with a vote before 2021. Leave it too long and the new awful becomes normal. 2020 at the latest, next September probably the earliest although 3 or 4 months is enough time to campaign so a June 2019 vote is not out of the question.
I can understand the hesitation. This one has to succeed otherwise we will be stuck in Brexitland.
The mandate is in place, it must be used well before the May. 2021 elections. In fact, I would say we need to be independent before then.
IMO two things will lead to a substantial YES win …. YES2 campaigning once it begins and WM playing silly bu99ers to try to stop IndyRef2.
Yes, this is and would be madness. It would be no more than the failings of the deluded human psyche scaled up to the body politic.
This reminds me of the mind of the unfortunate drunk, for whom the penny still has to drop when they say,’This time, it’ll be different…’ and so on and so on… the trouble is, ‘this time’ is NEVER any different.
I have zero faith in any politicking conditional ‘agreements’ that would involve any unionist party.
Indyref2 should be called as soon as the practical Brexit outcome is known and that is that. There is no way, the YES movement would, or should countenance anything else.
What have the naysayers got to offer? ABSOLUTELY NOTHING
I think we are all agreed late this year or the first half of 2019 at the very latest.
Its coming – I can feel it.
Also well done to us all in welcoming those who were conned into voting no in 2014. It does the yes movement a great deal of credit and ,more importantly, convinces more to come away from the dark side
Agreed in spades, Craig Murray who knows a thing or two about how countries achieved their independence noted some time ago that referenda are a minority way of going about it. An election campaign is strongly favoured as is a Constitutional Convention when all the senior elected representatives get together and thrash it out. So that’s all the MSP’s, MP’s and MEP’s where the SNP plus Green etc have a majority. Doing that is standard international practice and I expect the pragmatic EU looking to salvage something out of Brexit would recognise it, it would even tick the constitutional box to satisfy Spain. IIRC Catalunya doesn’t have such a majority, quite. Or they would have gone that way by now.
The SNP in the face of No10’s intransigence have looked deliberately clueless as to what to do when the constitutional toolbox is full of appropriate, tried and tested, internationally recognised tools.
I’ve certainly never been asked my opinion on alternative routes and neither does there seem to have been any polling on it.
Victor Hogo maintained that you cannot defeat an idea whose time has come. Not by votes,not by armies, and not by deception.
Our time is coming whether the UK likes it or not.
desimond
The Government, the BBC, the corporate media and HYFUD have all reassured us all will be fine following Brexit. Dinnae fash yersel. 😉
Clootie says:
“…I struggle to understand why the support for Independence is not at 70 percent never mind 50.”
————–
As long as the polling firms are in establishment hands there will never be support higher than 50% for indy. No matter how many people declare support for YES it won’t be reflected in the polls, there are ways and means to “steer” the result required.
Of course it’s manipulation but it’s all part of the daily doing down of independence, polls/bad news reports/not reporting good news/unionjackery etc, etc.
Even though the Rev uses polling firm, Panelbase, I’m still very wary about the results when it comes to the indy questions compared to general questions.
I think we have a slight majority for YES which will improve when we do actually start the Indy campaign.
I also think we should be taking the fight to Westminster by implementing the steps explained above; we need to put WS under more pressure by exercising our self-confidence and sovereingnity.
Jewish people lived through the era of *Hostile Environment*
Scotland’s people are living in a *Hostile environment* in our own country created by England who tell us we are not a country just like the people in Northern Ireland aren’t a country just like the people in Wales aren’t a country
Funny how the only country in this Union who is allowed to be a country is the country of England, until it decides it’s the UK or it decides it’s Britain or it decides whatever it damn well likes
I don’t like that and no matter which politics anybody votes for nobody should like that
These people in England who continue to wield this power for their own gain should be consigned to history along with their once Empire, they are Racist Xenophobic Power Mad and dangerous people just like those we should all remember in the 1930s
What kind of people come up with the creation of a *Hostile Environment* Mrs May?
Nicola is sounding just like Theresa, ” Now is not the time “.
It’s not going down well out in the streets and anyone outside the bubble can tell you that.
Use the mandate or loose votes and power!
I’m spitting bloody nails at the way this is going.
Yes, for some time now I’ve been fearing that there are some in the SNP who just haven’t got the bottle, and will always prefer to put off the necessary confrontation, no matter what. Gradualism reduced from snail’s pace to standstill.
I have no notion how influential or widespread these fainthearts are, or what they think they are achieving, but each time any one of them pipes up with their variant of the cringe, it demoralises. It discourages.
Instead what we all urgently need, current believers and potential converts alike, is inspiration, light at the end of the tunnel, hope of an imminent way forward to a better future.
It’s either move forward or wither.
Anyone remember the Peanuts cartoon?
Think of when Lucy encourages Charlie Brown to kick the football – he never does.
I get that image in my head when thinking of Independence. Our opponents are the ones holding the ball.
Go to youtube and search (my comments seem to bounce when I post a youtube link)
“peanuts lucy football family guy”
– we need to “Peter Griffin”/ “Roadhouse” the situation.
The UK will never play fair in this, but their playbook is known and predictable.
Eh, what makes Mr Pringle think this is a good idea. The SNP government HAS a mandate at present. Clear cut, voted on in the Scottish Parliament. What more does he want.
I know that I would be feeling pretty annoyed with the SNP if they choose not to implement the mandate that we, the people of Scotland had given them, before the next election.
If they did not use it before 2021, why would I vote for them again. The short answer would probably be I wouldn’t. I know that the wait and see brigade feel that this is the way to go, but I think that they are wrong. The mandate has to be used in this parliament, not the next one. I reckon if that’s what they do, the SNP would find themselves out on their collective ear.
Remember: the political implosion in the north of Ireland increases in temperature:
link to belfasttelegraph.co.uk
Troubles in the britnat making. Britnats will blame Ireland and the EU of course. Scotland, in turn, must take advantage of continuing british nationalist hubris.
westminster will do whatever it can to corrupt a second Independence vote and a section 30 order will force the outcome to be accepted,
How many times have we to be told, WE DO NOT NEED ANYONE’S PERMISSION TO GO FOR INDEPENDENCE ! ! ! least of all a corrupt parliament in another country holding us to ransom
Here’s how ye do it:
SG: “Can we have a Section 30 Order please?”
WM: “Now is not the time!”
SG: “Okay, agree to a Section 30 by (date) – after that we go ahead without you!”
WM: “Now is not the….., wait, wait, you can’t just do that….”
SG: “We can and we will!”
WM: “OK ref in 2025, we run the show, 18 and over, no EU citizens etc etc…”
SG: “That’s it, were off – bye!”
WM: “Now is not the….Wait…..”
SG: “Bye!”
@Cameron Brodie
Cameron..I know I know..but I don’t really care to be honest.
Its the fact that we got sidelined on saving folks from HMS Brexit rather than use it as the springboard to dive free that annoys me.
We got so busy making sure there are lifeboats for everyone else that we forgot we didn’t even want to be on the doomed ship on the first place.
@ Muscleguy, Craig Murray covers the imperial modus operandi in his new book, “Sukunder Burnes! Master of the Great Game!” on the total shambles of the first Afghan War. Birlinn £18, but get it from the library! Compares & contrasts with Labour’s own Afghan War & how the British never learn. Superb narrative!
If we leave the referendum until after Brexit, i.e. March 2019, it will be too late for independence.
No matter how bad the deal, the Dunkirk spirit will be invoked by the media and people will feel compelled to stick together, no matter what. It’s human nature not to leave someone in trouble and we won’t leave the rump UK.
Graf Midgehunter says:
8 October, 2018 at 2:13 pm
As long as the polling firms are in establishment hands there will never be support higher than 50% for indy. No matter how many people declare support for YES it won’t be reflected in the polls, there are ways and means to “steer” the result required.
Indeed, the only reason they released a favourable YES poll (dependent on BREXIT – take note) last week, was to frighten the soft Leavers ahead of the expected Peoples’s Vote. So obvious.
All part of the BritNats propaganda machine:
Fake News and Fake Polls
When it comes to issues such as national independence for ‘subject peoples’ London has historically always required the application of force to secure that end. Our case will, I suspect, be no exception to that historic rule.
Sadly there are many wee toadies in Scotland who can only conceive of their country as one overseen by people with the right kind of accent, schooling and ‘home counties’ post code; the classic colonial mentality.
The ‘elocution Scots’ have an inbuilt sense of cultural inferiority. If it sounds too Scottish and too assertive it must be ‘unsound’. It must be hell for them at the moment.
IMO the only way the polls will shift significantly in the direction of Yes, is if the SNP were to actually talk about independence happening and happening soon. No date needs to be mentioned just now, but it needs to be talked about. A lot. People need to know that we are not doing all this chat here on Wings, WGD etc and going on marches for nothing.
And why does it all have to depend on Brexit? All Brexit has shown us is countless other reasons why this union no longer works and why it should be dissolved.
Brexit will destroy businesses, jobs and livelihoods. A hard Brexit could kill people. I’m not willing to wait until 2021 after seeing my own businesses destroyed. Nicola has an absolute responsibility to use the mandate as soon as terms of Brexit are known. If referendum is refused then no democratic option should be off table.
I cant help thinking that Nicola and our Westminster MPs are only too aware of the devious methods beloved by Westminster. I would be surprised if they haven’t game planned every possible permutation of Unionism’s “bang bang, you’re dead”.
But just because they have a gun doesn’t mean they can shoot anytime they like.
Confused
You need to delete all characters preceding the www, before posting youtube links. Otherwise, post just end up in the bin.
The Scottish government has a mandate for a second referendum
The Scottish government can legally and lawfully call a referendum anytime
Such a referendum would be advisory
The Edinburgh agreement aka section 30 was an agreement to implement the outcome of the referendum, it was legally binding. It set out a pathway and time frame for implementing the result.
Since 2014 200,000 more 16 17yr olds are eligible to vote. 70% of of young people favour independence. =140,000 yes votes
App.200,000 eu citizens here. Most voted no in 2014. Most will vote yes now. =170,000 yes now.
Aprox 12-15% of no voters are europhiles. They put eu membership above all else. At a modest estimate it would translate in 200,000 yes votes. Based on logic and official figures from electoral commission and ons. I would concur that that a referendum would result in a yes vote of over 58%
[…] Wings Over Scotland The definition of insanity A famous quote commonly attributed to Albert Einstein (and hotly disputed, as always, […]
But what currency would we use ? ……
Sorry seriously couldn’t resist.
Spot on analysis Rev. Very Very clear to me now.
Here’s a typical modern international sporting conundrum.
If you are expecting your opponent to play fair & follow the rules
(without taking advantage at any time of your inadequacy), then expect to get thrashed.
Rules of the jungle apply … see Rugby !
UK Vision statement – Rules are made to be bent / broken …
See Scotland
See Brexit
See Windrush
See Waspi Women
I couldn’t agree with you more Stuart, I really despair at times about those so called strategists who are dispensing advice to Nicola Sturgeon about getting guarantees from Westminster in return for supporting a peoples vote on the EU Deal
As we saw from the 2014 indy referendum, even if the British nationalist parties promise and guarantee what Nicola wants in order to get their peoples vote on the EU.
Once they have gotten it,any such promises or guarantees that were made would be worthless as they would be discarded/rejected as being none binding.
I would have preferred, if Alex Salmond had held to Margret Thatcher’s position, which was if the SNP gained the majority of MPs in Scotland that was a mandate for independence.
I was against a referendum in the first place because all we were doing was giving the British Nationalists another
opportunity to say no
HandandShrimp @ 13:56:
Commendably short yet hits the nail bang on the head.
That’s where we’re heading unless we do something fairly effective PDQ.
I suppose it’s understandable so many sphincters are twitching right now, but with the denouement of the charade in touching distance peeps, clench!
Out of SM &/or CU = material change = Indyref2
Once that becomes inevitable, meaningful vote is an oxymoron btw, then NS will act. With or without ‘permission’.
IMHO. The Scottish Government has all the moral authority it requires to simply dissolve the yoonyawn. Unfortunately there aren’t enough Scots who see things my way, to make that a practical option. Soon though.
Our problem is that if a recent poll, link to scotgoespop.blogspot.com, is to be believed then Brexit is definitely messing with the timing of indyref2.
Sometimes you need to weather a storm before setting sail.
There’s vanishing signs despite what’s being punted in the MSN of Westminster having a sudden attack of sanity and calling of Brexit or even staying in the Single Market.
However the Vow might be repeated and indy put of yet again. Or Westminster might take advice from Mogg and agree to an undefined transition period until indyref2 is in the bag then shit on us again.
There’s probably an apt quote from Sun Tzu but at the moment the SNP are holding fire. At the moment Brexit is straining the Conservatives and Labour. There used to be an idea that to win all the Chinese had to do was hang back and let the USSR and west decimate each other.
There will come a point where bridges have been so badly burned within each that Better Together has little to no chance of cohesion. Where slanders and attacks have been thrown that the SNP being a common enemy will be less likely to force the unionist parties to get their shit together. Or at least not in time to defend the union.
Yeah, lol, the Yoon media is absolutely frothing mad desperate for Nicola to jump, just so that they can attack and dismantle our case for Independence, but she has them well and truly in her pocket.
You can almost see the whites of their eyes.
Stay the course, seriously not long now folks.
I would have thought the SNP would have learnt a lesson from the 2017 GE. In 2015GE they got most of the YES vote. While in 2017 half a million Yessers just stayed at home and didn’t vote.
Why? Well IMO because Indy wasn’t front and centre. There is only one political game in Scotland and that’s the quest for independence countered by those wishing to stop it. Everything else is just humdrum (even if necessary) admin.
One thing is sure, those opposing Indy never miss a chance to attack.
The route to independence is to vote SNP, but that works both ways …. the SNP must always work to attract and maintain the independence vote.
Going into the May 2021 Holyrood election having not made full use of mandate and opportunity will be a disaster for the SNP IMO.
I trust Nicola has ‘got everything in hand’ and a plan to get us out of this mess. I will be seriously disappointed if not.
I’m nearly 70 years old and I’ve never been polled on anything ever and I checked with my brother who has never been polled on anything either
I don’t even know anyone who’s been polled on anything
So who are these same mysterious folk who keep deciding what we want by other mysterious folk asking questions that they themselves want the answers to and why
Polls are funny things “do you want to be hanged or shot”
then the answer is supplied as “Most folk would like to be shot” which of course is ridiculous because nobody wants to die in the first place but these mysterious people are posed these daft questions to illicit the required answer any polling company or organisation chooses to want in order to influence the stupid enough of the rest of us to base our own personal decisions on a bunch of mysterious peoples answers that for all we know are not chosen at random because we’re all random and most of us has never been chosen to be a random mysterious person
All part of the glorious manipulation of democracy and how not to achieve it, but it must be right, the mysterious polling people said so
In fact let’s invent polling by post Ooops! they did that didn’t they and that’s definitely not open to manipulation as we all know…eh?
One last thing, who invents a job requiring a University degree to interpret the results of polls that were already supposed to be a reflection of what the populace thinks then receives a knighthood for interpreting them to suit a political point of view that’s paying for those polls
Ref: Prof Poultice, who even gets a special title for doing it a Pseffyologyisty latiny sounding title to make it more importanty sounding
Uh Huh! Polls!
I reckon that the only reason Pringle was on Brewer’s Droop yesterday was because the BBC knew what he was going tom say.
And now today as predictable as night follows day Sillars’ MI5 handlers have wound him up again and pressed his start button.
It is not Nicola’s mandate, it belongs to the Scottish peoples. Nicola is the custodian of that mandate.
We use it or lose it, simple as that.
20, 80, 100 or 193 (take your pick)thousand folk and a few dogs took to Edinburgh on Saturday just to remind everyone of that mandate. If IRef2 isn’t mentioned by this Christmas then we have already lost. We don’t need an absolute date but that starting gun has to be fired sooner rather than later.
Here’s an unpolled prediction, if the SNP don’t have a plan and fail to use the mandate by 2021 they will be up shit creek without some Draino and I say that as a rock solid supporter and member, but my guess is they do,I think, I hope,
or we’re rubber ducked without a plunger
Politicsscot says
Spoke directly to @IanBlackfordMP (thanks for your time) who assured me that @theSNP are NOT pushing for or calling for a “people’s vote” but will support one IF proposed & IF we get concessions should we find ouurselves in the same position. Feel better now.
link to twitter.com
I am not saying I’m an expert on body language, but trust me, Nicola is all over this.
Apparently, Mark Smith is a direct descendant of Edward Lear and is upholding the family tradition. But Kevin Pringle has made some surprising comments over the last few years since he became ex. It could be out of grievance same as the Alex Bell guy, but somewhow I doubt that, so another possibility is that he’s running interference for the SNP with a bit of sleight of hand, I hope so because he was a good guy for Indy.
Stu the legal route you propose is probably the best in terms of absolutes. However like most things that are political and end up in court. They can be made to drag on for years, not just months.
With the right political interference the Tories could delay that legal decision for years.
I like the idea of a Scottish General Election fought on independence. That cannot be boycotted and everyone gets to vote if registered. The result would be binding as well.
@CameronB Brodie
300+ years of cultural brainwashing cannot be fixed, unfortunately, with sleight of hand. There is a psychological block in certain Scots that no matter how reasoned your argument they obdurately refuse to concede. They seem to prefer the ‘comfort’ of the locked cage, no matter that the door key is in their hands.
The arguments for independence have been well rehearsed. Attention now needs to be paid to demolishing the historically threadbare arguments for prolonging the status quo.
In that respect the facts of this abusive anglo-scottish marriage need to be spelled out in gory, graphic and gruesome detail. The myth, the great Unionist lie is anything but ‘noble’.
I think it’s the urgency of not knowing when or if or what that makes us nuts and angry and uncertain
If only we knew?
But then they’d know too……dammit!
The EU expect clarity around the 17th of October. I am expecting a hard Brexit with a holding pen for Irish traded goods. Thus avoiding a hard border on trade in N Eire. So no single market and no freedom of movement for Scotland.
November the SNP will announce their plans and hopefully a date for indy ref 2.
Well I am a long term SNP member, I firmly believe that we must hold Indy2 before the end of the present parliament term. Early march or quicker if we have details of brexit. We also need to take into account the weather, if we have a winter like last year voting at the polls could be difficult.
The rev’s case is indeed a valid one. We cannot lose the very advantage we have at the moment. If we fail to act we are likely to lose that advantage, that we may currently have.
We just cannot let this slip, or again, as pointed out by the Rev’s posting, we create a much harder struggle.
The SNP must do this, we must do it to suit our agenda not Westminster’s. We need to do it soon.
Failure to go forward will harm the SNP, and may also see the rise of another Indy party that takes no truck from Westminster in line with our wishes.
So it is politically bad for the SNP not to uphold the growing feelings of the people, personally I would not like to see this happen as the SNP are very competent. We have a window, we must use it.
@Dr Jim
Same, but with the qualification that if Brexit doesn’t happen at all the mandate arguably doesn’t exist, and if Brexit is the EEA route, even though that takes us out of the EU, it might be wise to reconsider, as “staying” in the EEA (via EFTA) should be almost automatic for iScotland, and solve any potential problems with the rUK. It certainly would change the YES campaign strategy, both SNP and grassroots.
Well said. Very well said.
The simple fact is you need to do something. This absurd notion that although we have more MSP’s than any other party (more than all other parties put together), more councillors, more MP’s by a very large margin, and a cast iron democratic mandate from two elections to hold a referendum, plus a parliamentary vote for same, we must somehow do nothing and hope the SNP win a majority at the next election in a few years, is just daft. I’d go further, it is, just like brexit, stupidity on stilts.
As REVSTU says, Westminster do not understand nice people. They do not grasp ‘democratic mandates’, especially from Scotland. They respect none of that. AND NEVER WILL.
This needs tackled head on, and if it comes to a fight, so be it. If it causes a ‘constitutional crisis’ so be it. At some point either now, or in the mythical period following the next election, the SNP need to start asserting Scottish democracy and rights. They need to start doing. Of course London and its puppet media will bleat ‘oh that’s ‘illegal’ or whatever, but their really is no other way.
We simply cannot stand by and have Scotland taken out of the EU against the wishes of Scots. Saying it’s not fair, doesn’t cut it. Of course it’s not fair. Westminster has been doing EXACTLY the same thing to Scotland for over three hundred years.
No, it requires some steely resolve. Just go ahead and do it. That is what westminster does, day in, day out. Power is not given, it is taken, and right now London is taking from Scotland with every passing day.
Cause a commotion. Cause a ‘constitutional crisis’. Just do it, because if we do not we will literally get nothing, and we will be lucky if the Scottish parliament is still open the day after brexit.
I watched a wee video on FM Nicola Sturgeon’s facebook page dated 6th October. The message to me seemed hopeful and almost like “On your marks, Yes movement”. It would not have surprised me if she had given us a wee wink at the end. I think Nicola and the rest of the SNP MPs, MSPs, MEPs and members and other Yessers are a lot smarter than your average bear. I have faith in them. They are not daft. I hope they have been war-gaming the f**k out of all these scenarios. Find the video. Have a look.See what you think. Share it. (Can’t do the linky thing).
I just posted some stuff on the wrong thread, covering political communication and methods of mobilising voter turnout. Here if anyone is interested.
link to wingsoverscotland.com
This is the line of the year “Leave it too long and the new awful becomes normal.”
This is something I have argued long and hard. Some think that once the real disaster of brexit happens, folk will get so angry they’ll be clamouring for indy. I really don’t think so. People will be scared and since nobody is currently making the case for indy, they likely haven’t given it much thought.
No, once brexit happens, people will very quickly get used to it. It will be the new ‘normal’.
Think some of what’s going on might be preparatory work for a “consultative” referendum having a bit more bite.
The legal challenge to the Continuity Bill might result in yet another reiteration of the Claim of Right. Westminster might lose.
Also the case regarding whether A50 can be unilaterally revoked might close out any pretense that a “Peoples Vote” rejecting a deal means abandoning Brexit rather than a “No Deal”
yesindyref2
I feel that full EU is out too and one of the other options for the sake of political expediency (votes) is more likely
The anti EU rhetoric from England has once again soured what might have been perfectly tasty soup
Funny though when you think about it most of the folks in England probably didn’t know they didn’t like the EU until they were told they were definitely horrid horrid folks
Don’t mention the war Basil, except now that we don’t like them, hurry up and switch on Dads army now for some real history, now sing….rule Bri…Jeez I’m going nuts now
Luigi above,
I want to quote your comment, because it sums up what I put in my rather long winded one.
This is EXACTLY the correct approach. Westminster understands nothing else. They simply fall over laughing at talk of deals and ‘compromise’. I assume the SNP do grasp that hard fact.
Time for talking with London is well over (and has been for some time).
Anyway, Luigi’s comment;
Here’s how ye do it:
SG: “Can we have a Section 30 Order please?”
WM: “Now is not the time!”
SG: “Okay, agree to a Section 30 by (date) – after that we go ahead without you!”
WM: “Now is not the….., wait, wait, you can’t just do that….”
SG: “We can and we will!”
WM: “OK ref in 2025, we run the show, 18 and over, no EU citizens etc etc…”
SG: “That’s it, were off – bye!”
WM: “Now is not the….Wait…..”
SG: “Bye!”
Cannot agree with RL enough, us being dragged out of the EU against our will should have been enough to light the blue touch paper.
The London parties suggest they might have a legal veto over Scotland’s self-determination. In doing so, they are dumping on the very principle of Magna Carta, i.e. liberty and individual rights. That’s how fucked-up British nationalism is.
@remo
Basically speaking, for more than 2 years the SNP have been pandering to the NO vote, and almost totally ignoring us, the YES vote. Their actions have been aimed at the NOes, and we’ve been neglected, spurned, ignored. Sob. *blowsnose
Well, duh, we’re YES already, what’s the point of pandering to us? It was 45% in 2014 and it’s STILL 45% in spite of having been spurned, neglected, tossed aside, and maybe some more than 45% as well.
Meanwhile the SNP can’t be accused of ignoring the 55% NO vote, while trying to please the 62% Remain vote at the same time. They really have gone well beyond the call of duty to do so. And STILL are.
Should they do anything else but that? I don’t think so. Definitely not. Have they wargamed it all? I’d bet my next cup of tea they have! We will know in a few short weeks if our trusting and incrediblely protracted patience has been misplaced.
Won’t be long now.
There is absolute no rational that a Poll in 2018 reflects the voting intention or result of an Election in 2021. Three years yet. Absolute nonsense. Unless someone can see the future. Malicious pollsters who always get it wrong have a crystal ball. They have got it wrong many time. Using the Polls to manipulate the vote,
There is not point in having another IndyRef until there are indications it can be won. With support continuing to build. The time is nigh. Patience is a virtue. Taking notice of suspect Polls is not. It could be totally made up nonsense. They get it wrong numerous times. Making illegal £Millions every time. The reason for the Polls. Criminal illegal greed of Multimillionaires. Who should be in jail.
This Poll could have been ‘released’ at this time for that exactly purpose to manipulate the vote. These voting intentions were known already. Already out of date. (1000). People could have already changed their minds. It could have been publicised to coincide with one of the largest political demonstration for the exact purpose. To discourage anyone being encourage to vote for Independence. because of the March.
A malicious anti Independence campaign to be put of people doing so because of result of the already (known) Poll. Or to encourage Official Independence representatives to go ahead before it is fortuitous to do so. In the hope the increased support is not already completely there yet.
One good reason for agreeing to another EURef is to muck up the Tories. The best reason of all. Payback time. Bring down May and the Tories.
Even after a successful YES vote. Negotiations would still have to be undertaken. Take a while (few years) Just as they are going on now. Continually. Gradually regaining powers. Until the decoupling is complete. An amicable separation and velvet divorce. Or a malicious drawn out divorce. It is up to fellow political negotiators. It is up to them as well. It takes two to tango. It is in the interest of the rest of the UK to make a seamless transition.
Look at the time it is taken for any Brexit conclusion or negotiation. It could go on for years until folk get scunnered completely. Leading to a GE election. A GE could happen at any time. Definitely likely. A GE could happen before the next Holyrood election. Changing to dealing with a totally different scenario with May and the Tories gone. The Tories can get voted out soon.
The Tories could Instigate a GE they can lose. One of the only way to get themselves out of their mess. A complete and utter shambles. An action often down by Westminster Unionist politicians. Since 1928. They have form of rejecting the poison chalice clearing off and leaving the mess behind. For others to clear up. Time after time after time. Thatcher, Blair/Brown/Cameron/Osbourne/Clegg. Total useless incompetents. Lying Psycho bastards. They should all be in jail.
Waiting a year or two will not make any difference except to ensure a better chance of winning and a less possible fractious division.
Any campaign in a tight margin would have to be undertaken in the spring, summer/autumn time. A political winter campaign would be less likely to be successful. For canvassing over winter/Christmas. Volunteers/canvassing are more likely to preference to go out in good weather.
There is a mandate for three years. The SNP Gov has a mandate for three years. It is quite reasonable to see how these Brexit pans out. Or give an indication. Really important to Scotland. Trade and exports etc. Tourism and migration.
@Dr Jim
I think you’re right, it’ll have to be EFTA / EEA to start with, but that doesn’t stop talks and application for formal accession to the EU when that’s decided as a good idea, two or three years after Independence, and the transition would be very short from one to another, meanwhile enjoying all or most of the benefits, without the political problems. Plus making it easy to carry on trading with the rUK who could be in the same position as Scotland, but on their way out of the EU rather than in. An easy transition for Independence.
A couple of relevant tweets from WoS twitter.
” 59% of Scots believe Holyrood should have the final say on holding an independence referendum. Only 30% believe Westminster “
… and …
” 56% of Labour supporters in Scotland reckon Holyrood should have final say on holding IndyRef2, compared to 33% who say Westminster”
For me, that implies a strong underlying belief that Holyrood should be making the serious decisions regarding Scotland, almost 2:1 overall.
And therein may lie a lot of individuals who could be persuaded in a straight binary decision for their future, that YES/iScotland is the best option.
Maybe we should be creating a *Hostile Environment* for Tory voters in Scotland by sending round vans with slogans like the removal of free precriptions free University tuition and free personal care for all Tory voters
Well we know that if ever the Ruthenfuhrer was in charge all these things would go to be replaced by Universal gruel and no need for all these *Bally hospitals for sick subsidised spongers*
Kevin P now writes for the Brit Establishment.
He has gone over to the Dark Side. Let’s hope it pays well, although they have not printed enough money for some of us.
Yesindyref2 at 415pm,
I hear what you say. I do hope you are right.
Apologies if this has been posted already,
video
link to stv.tv
A people’s vote so who voted the last time was it horses cows sheep and pigs ??? And as for those who say the top ones in the SNP know what they are doing regarding ref.,2
Well I wish I did ???
Lol, ‘I think you should go back and read the manifesto.’
See me after school for some extra homework. 🙂
One reason why the FM endorsed a possible brexit ref is that .. she knows there won’t be one 🙂
Waiting seems like a good idea. Once the farmers realize there will be no more EU grants and their products face a 40% EU import duty and once the fishermen realize their fishing grounds are only out to the 12 mile limit and again fish to Europe will face a 40% import duty if the French farmers agree!!! Ha ha
Then they might realize what side their bread is buttered
They need to stew a little longer
@Robert Louis
Me too. And everyone I talked to or listened to on Saturday are in the same boat. What do we want? Independence. When do we want it? NOW. But we realise we might have to wait a few weeks (NOT years) …
In 1707 England had 5x Scotland’s population, today that has risen to 10x.
Population is the elephant that few in Scotland seem able or prepared to see.
The country is ageing fast and needs more people, either ‘make them’ through increased birthrate and pro child attitudes or encourage large scale immigration. Either way without more people independence will be something of a shallow victory.
The Tory Lords are acting to deny Scotland any opportunity to become independent. They will introduce a bill tomorrow in the House of Lords. “the Bill as it has been drafted reflects the view that the UK needs a new constitutional settlement if the Union is to be preserved and strengthened.”
link to constitutionreformgroup.co.uk
We must deny to the House of Lords any right to monkey with the Act of Union. Any change in the Act of Union would surely require a negotiation with the People of Scotland through their elected representatives, and the choice be given to revoke the Act or 1707 and return to our independent state!
Why? Well IMO because Indy wasn’t front and centre
————-
the flaw in your argument was we won in 2015 on a ticket which specifically didnt mention indy.
we were caught out in 2017 because our voters were tired and didnt show up and people were more concerned about brexit. thats why the tories never even had a manifesto other than no to indyref2 which was not even on the snp manifesto in 2017.
the tories also used this tactic in the local elections even though they were not about indy. it worked well for them.
you want to join in there chorus?
the stated route to indy is via holyrood, not wetminster, for obvious reasons
Because the SNP did not adopt a twin track approach i.e. Independence and its benefits along with anti-Brexit, most uninformed voters have no sense of what Indy actually means.
No currency sorted , no Central Bank; no plans for economic change based on nationalised control of our resources e.g. oil and gas.
Instead, Brexit happens and the fearties are expected to clamour for another exit..this time from the UK. Why would they all move over when the Brit State media have poisoned the well of SNP competency for years?
I believe the majority of Scots voters don’t even realise that we have a mandate for a referendum, because the SNP have not made the case loud and clear. And don’t give me all the bull about how they have not been allowed to by the media…..Well what has stopped them taking on the BBC legally for breaches of its charter? Why have they not had their media unit on the offensive? Why have they permitted the passive approach year after year with the lying media?
I remember the same arguments before the REF that the SNP and YES would pull out the ace cards that would stop the Brits in their tracks. It didn’t happen. I dread the same vacillation and loss of courage in the face of Brit implacability. We had the whip hand in 2015, all it needed was a declaration of dissolution of the Union based on majority of Scottish seats..which was the received wisdom of the time. But by agreeing to a Referendum, we gave away our sovereignty in a stupid , fixed gamble.
Bon Dias Troops. A wee O/T.
Having a wee game of Brexit Bingo.
A wee walk to a secluded beach today and all we could hear was the glorious sound of the Hampshire accent resonating all around very loudly.
“They need us, more than we need them” = 1 line across. You get the idea.
The classic full house came with. “You know the world is complete when you can watch Dr Who and Antiques Road Show on Spanish telly. ” I shit you not.
ah bliss amongst the morons.
I do not think the Spaniards will miss the Southern Shire Brexiteers one bit.
Mes Bo de fer
yesindyref2 @ 16:19,
I thought the whole point of independence was that we could choose our own direction for ourselves.
Not having some pre-digested “compromise” that absolutely no-one voted for being foisted upon us as some additional baggage bolted onto our supposed “freedom”.
First we get independence, then we can put a choice to the people based on a clear understanding of the available alternatives.
Until then, the only fair position is the status quo in our foreign relations that a significant majority of Scots actually voted for. (Not to forget the deliberately disenfranchised remainder of the people of Scotland.)
westminster has the option to call a ge. this is a nuclear option, which worked well for the tories in scotland in 2017. less well in england.
it scuppered nicolas launch of indyref2. I believe there will be another “brexit” ge this autumn called either by a no deal treeza or her replacement.
good, it clears the road for us and will give more certainty to the voters in scotland.
but scotland also has its nuclear options, ie, indyref2, which we already have a mandate for, but it is also in our power to call another holyrood election. something that the unionists would have no choice but to participate in.
There will come a point where the SNP will have to stand on an Indy ticket at Scottish/GE
There is a manifesto for an independence referendum and if not used this parliamentary term, they will have to go to 2021 on an Indy ticket.
They could go referendum and lose, then stand on an Indy ticket for another bite. I suspect by that point their chance of returning a majority may be slim, who knows. Or they could shelve the referendum and buy a couple of years to wait on support increasing then stand on an Independence ticket instead in 2021. But what is certain, is that talk of NOT using the referendum mandate and NOT standing on an Indy ticket in 2021 would be nothing short of political suicide. The Party would splinter for the simple fact that they would no longer be perceived as the Party of Independence, for want of the courage of their convictions.
The Union Establishment would help tear them apart.
I understand the desire to await until stats say support for Indy is a majority shoe-in and to pursue incremental devolved government until then; However it is not similar to a ‘New Zealand’ incremental Independence, as we have absolute active parties pursuing a Unionist agenda attempting to halt then reverse all gains toward self determination. The Independence ideal is reaching a tipping point where it must be actively and relentlessly pursued without pause. Should the SNP lose a majority by standing on an Indy ticket – so be it – we shall just see how hungry they are to galvanize and relentlessly pursue their stated goal and regain Holyrood and Scotland.
Englands favourite son, auld Wullie Shakespeare had it:
“There is a tide in the affairs of men, Which taken at the flood, leads on to fortune. Omitted, all the voyage of their life is bound in shallows and in miseries. On such a full sea are we now afloat. And we must take the current when it serves, or lose our ventures.”
All they need to do to secure a large pro-indy majority is to give up their mathematically dumb ‘SNP1&2’ strategy. It almost lost them that majority last time around, exactly as I warned. The logic of the system is to fight it as a coalition.
lochside I am in full agreement with every word you wrote well said
Lochside
some sympathy for this view, i wasnt happy with eck signing the edinburgh agreement of asking for a s30, as it set a precedent. but hey ho, water under the bridge now, we need to deal with the facts that are before us.
if nicola calls indyref2 and wm refuses a s30 we can hold indyref2 without one or we can dissolve holyrood and call another election. lengthy legal due process and UDI not included in options.
what else is there?
Interesting and strongly felt comments btl with most obviously the general feeling that “if the SNP don’t do it before 2021 then we’re stuffed and I might never vote for them again”.
Everybody under that scenario would throw in the towel and get back in the box, give up on Indy, is that right?
I wouldn’t have thought so but why do you think we are having these articles in the papers today today by Pringle and Smith along with the opinion of Jim Sillars?
It wouldn’t be because Nicola Sturgeon is due to give her speech tomorrow at the conference and that the media know that the main point of contention among Independence supporters right now is when we should have one.
They wouldn’t be winding us up would they, surely too obvious?
Well maybe they just would do that and we’re being trolled and like all trolls they are best ignored. Who gives’s a toss about the future predictions of those writing for the failed and still failing so called “Scottish” media?
Not me for one, they rarely get anything right.
FWIW I still believe that there will be a second referendum before 2021. All we need to know is what conditions we will be fighting that referendum under and especially with regards to Brexit.
Support for Independence is still increasing, the numbers on the march on Saturday are an obvious proof of that. The fact that this is happening is all down to the incompetence of the Tory government over the Brexit negotiations.
There is NO possible deal that can be satisfactory for Scotland so let them do their worst is my philosophy for the meantime. Independence will require some patience and not allowing trolling newspapers to knock you off the rails especially when it’s their attempt to predict the future.
I just asked my wife who reads none of this stuff or other Independence sites “When do think there should be another referendum?” She answered “I don’t know. When do you think we’re going to win it.”
I never answered her but I can share this, I do believe it will be before 2021 and the I won’t allow crap in the papers to wind me up in the meantime.
Everybody talking about this peoples votey referendumy vote that really everybody knows the Tories will never allow anyway and why on earth would they, it would be political suicide for them with their own supporters and the mad Ukipping=Tory=Labour lot, sooo The First Minister’s on a pretty safe bet by saying the SNP won’t obstruct one and would only accept one if everybody else did, which they wont
None of this is within Scotlands control so the SNP I’m sure will have had to plan for all eventualities *I hope* and come up with a secret alternative that only they know, and they’re not going to say what that is to anybody because they’d be incompetent if they did, that’s why the press and everybody and his dug are exasperated at not knowing
Would you be happier being told what was going to happen if you knew the enemy knew that too
I prefer to think of us as the abused wife who’s had enough but has to wait till her abuser husband turns his back before we get the chance to stick the kitchen knife in
@RJS
It’s a bit of a mix really between the SNP mandate for Indy Ref 2 which is to give Scotland a choice, and the actual referendum motion which was passed and is STILL extant.
———-
Motion S5M-04710: Nicola Sturgeon, Glasgow Southside, Scottish National Party, Date Lodged: 20/03/2017
Scotlands Choice
That the Parliament acknowledges the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of government best suited to their needs and therefore mandates the Scottish Government to take forward discussions with the UK Government on the details of an order under section 30 of the Scotland Act 1998 to ensure that the Scottish Parliament can legislate for a referendum to be held that will give the people of Scotland a choice over the future direction and governance of their country at a time, and with a question and franchise, determined by the Scottish Parliament, which would most appropriately be between the autumn of 2018, when there is clarity over the outcome of the Brexit negotiations, and around the point at which the UK leaves the EU in spring 2019.
————-
with Patrick Harvie’s passed amendment:
———–
Motion S5M-04710.5: Patrick Harvie, Glasgow, Scottish Green Party, Date Lodged: 20/03/2017
Scotland’s Choice
As an amendment to motion S5M-04710 in the name of Nicola Sturgeon (Scotland’s Choice), insert at end ; believes that this gives people in Scotland a choice at a time when there is both the most information and most opportunity to act; further believes that 16 and 17-year-olds and EU citizens, who were excluded from the EU referendum, should be entitled to vote, and considers that this referendum is necessary given the Prime Ministers decision to negotiate a hard exit from the EU, including leaving the single market, which conflicts with assurances given by the UK Government and prominent Leave campaigners, and which takes no account of the overwhelming Remain vote in Scotland.”
———-
which means, I think, that Indy Ref 2 needs to be before the UK leaves the EU, but that we be given a choice over what future we want, EU, EFTA / EEA, our own EEA or none. But that doesn’t have to be straight away perhaps, and could be left until after Indy, as long as we have some sort of transition in the SM (and perhaps the CU).
I used to think the EU relationship Ref should be after a YES to Indy but before Indy itself, but if that transition can be achieved as a couple including Kirsty Hughes and I forget the name, have pointed out, to allow time to decide, then so much the better I think.
Tommy Sheppard also rightly pointed out in his speech at the Rally, that the Claim of Right didn’t even go to a vote in the HoC so was passed unopposed (I think I got that right), as no unionist MP would have dared to stand against it. For me it makes a lot of the S30 debate irrelevant. Yes it’d be nice to have one and makes life easier, but so what? We really don’t need Westminster’s consent – that Claim of Right says so (as well as all the other arguments).
The media are always attempting to “put pressure” on the First Minister over the timing of another Independence referendum and in my opinion using Independence supporters to do it for them:
The First Minister was also asked if Saturday’s large pro-independence march in Edinburgh at the weekend put pressure on her from the party’s grassroots to call an independence referendum soon.
She answered: “I always laugh to myself when I hear people say that a historically large march in favour of independence somehow puts pressure on me.
“I’ve spent my entire life campaigning for independence, I’m the leader of a pro-independence party.
“Watching tens of thousands of people take to the streets of Edinburgh to campaign for independence actually makes me very happy – it’s a good thing.”
This is a British Nationalist tactic to undermine her position.
Don’t be wound up about the timing and have a bit more faith in the ONLY person in Scotland that is likely to deliver Independence for Scotland for well into the foreseeable future.
@Thepnr “Interesting and strongly felt comments btl with most obviously the general feeling that “if the SNP don’t do it before 2021 then we’re stuffed and I might never vote for them again”.”
I don’t think that’s it Thepnr. I think if the SNP break the very clear promise in the manifesto, and ignore the will of the Scottish Parliament in that passed motion above, then they’ve betrayed the trust and we look for another Independence party to form and stand in 2021/2.
I doubt very much that any of that will happen, the SNP would have to be blind deaf and thick as mince not to realise that’s the danger, even if they were inclined that way which I also doubt very much. But no harm in keeping them on their toes in case they listen to the wrong people, not the grassroots.
STVNews there, not showing Colin being handed his ass to him on a plate. 🙂
I dream of the day when Scotland does not have to put up with the BBC’s skewed output and hostility to plural democracy. Until then, Scotland shall endure. It will soon be time though, to re-unite Scotland’s popular sovereignty with government that is accountable to Scotland.
link to sites.hks.harvard.edu
Political Parallelism and Media Coalitions in Western Europe
link to reutersinstitute.politics.ox.ac.uk
The Herman–Chomsky Propaganda Model: A Critical Approach to Analysing Mass Media Behaviour
link to citeseerx.ist.psu.edu
We should repeal the Treaty of the Union of The Scottish and English Parliaments. Westminster will never let us have independence, they need OUR OIL and GAS income.
My concern is that if we wait till after March there would be a possibility of a new ‘All Powerful WM’ making an excuse to close down Holyrood and instigate rule from London.
Once out of the EU they would have their own powers and Law – and I suspect they might go for it! But I suppose their very own Supreme court would stop it???
Then we’d be up a dark alley.
Anyone listen to Radio 4, 6.00pm news headlines tonight?
No mention of SNP Conference – an event that could affect the very existence of the UK.
Pretty much sums up this respect thing. Keep it up you BBC chaps, might even convert some unionists who must have a turning point for what “sticks in the craw”?
A proper media in Scotland that represented the views of all that live here would rightly be kicking up a stink about May’s “now is not the time” and all the other anti democratic crap of “refusing another referendum until 2027” aka Ruthie.
It’s these chancers and professional trolls in the media who are printing such crap that we should aim out fire upon. Not each other and definitely not the First Minister.
Excellent post Stu. Some very good comments too.
Indyref during this Scottish Parliament term
or
a General Election or Scottish Parliament SNP election manifesto with one policy only: independence.
If the SNP do not deliver one of them by 2021, the SNP’s time as leaders of the YES movement will be over.
Research indicates English Tories happy to see Union binned for Brexit.
See Guardian online. SNP conference live.
I think the SNP are in a tricky position, but they always have been. To be in their current position and hostage to their own success is, I’m sure something they could only dream of decades ago. With no other credible Scottish political force to bring self determination and Independence, there is little option but accept whatever decisions they make. I have no issues with that. I don’t have a deep enough political insight at the bleeding edge of the Independence campaign. I am not duelling with the Westminster Establishment, the SNP are.
All I can do is pass opinion and comment and campaign in my own small way.
I don’t think suggesting the SNP should gear up, not procrastinate and have the courage of their convictions is undermining the SNP in any way. It’s only roaring the team on to score. If they don’t or miss the square ball I’m shouting for, well I’ll just roar them on again next time they go close to scoring. That’s just the nature of passionate support and I’m sure the SNP love hearing it. Better than quiet expectation or indifference.
@thepnr
Which is why when the time comes independence will not be won through mainstream media. I would have hoped that by now the media would have been more representative. About the only thing that has changed is the National but I guess it is largely bought by those who want independence.
We need to find ways of by passing the media and the Dead Tree Scrolls. Buying copies of the National for the neighbours, pamphlets, billboards and not least sites like Wings.
re. this proposed new Act of Union. Let’s take a look at its intended purpose and see if Britain is up to the task.
link to constitutionreformgroup.co.uk
IMHO, the Bill is Dead On Arrival. Contemporary British society fails to meet any of the Bill’s stated intentions. This is simply wishful thinking by British nationalists with a penchant for clown shoes.
What is it with British nationalists who want to concoct arbitrary and meaningless ‘British human rights’, when there is a full set of rights articulated by the United Nations. This is British exceptionalism that fails to take account of the sovereignty of Scots and does nothing to support the principle of universal human rights. Indeed, British exceptionalism undermines the very concepts of global human rights, international cooperation and social solidarity.
We have a qualified mandate, which will be triggered on 29 March 2019. If Brexit happens. Not before.
A S30 is required to give the vote legitimacy in the eyes of the Scottish People, and ensure that the result of the vote is respected. Secondly a legal process is a must have in terms of Scotland’s Independence being legitimate in the eyes of the world.
S30 process restarted. British PM whoever it is by that time says No.
Option 1 seek an unqualified mandate at Holyrood 2021. Just as in 2011, no ifs, buts or maybes. We WILL hold a referendum. That’s winnable provided people don’t fall for the split your vote pish again.
Win Holyrood 2021. Renew S30 process
No S30, there’s a Westminster election less than a year away. And a majority of Scottish MPs does not need a S30 to hold a referendum, or withdraw and begin negotiations. A S30 ONLY applies to the Scottish Parliament. If Westminster is sovereign then a majority of Scottish MPs elected on a clear manifesto commitment is also soverign
Have a nice evening
Despite what Mr Corbyn may have said in the past about an indyref:
The Labour Party would rather let the Conservatives be in power if doing that kept Scotland under Westminster control.
That’s what happened already in the 2017 UK General Election. Labour told people to vote Tory to keep the SNP out.
@pipinghot says: 8 October, 2018 at 4:05 pm:
” … Cannot agree with RL enough, us being dragged out of the EU against our will should have been enough to light the blue touch paper.”
I’m not going to say too much here but that is daft. If that kind of thing was going to win Scottish independence why do you imagine there was no spontaneous revolt among the Scots for independence when Westminster told us that Westminster was the de facto parliament of the country of England parliament and they were devolving a few of the country of England’s sovereign powers over Scotland and that Scotland no longer existed and the United Kingdom was the old parliament of England renamed as the United Kingdom.
Why was there not an uprising then? Why were not the legally sovereign people of Scotland searching through the thatch to find the hidden claymores? Why were these Scots so happy to be told that the Kingdom of Scotland, was no longer the only equally sovereign kingdom partner with the Kingdom of England in the United Kingdom? Why so happy to become the inferior and servile wee dominion of the mighty Kingdom of England our imperial masters?
If ever Scots should have had the backbone to tell the English Nationalists the union was over and it was the English/British nationalists who had caused it to end. Why did they then not tell Westminster, “It’s over and we, your former partner kingdom are ending this unequal partnership right now. We are your partner kingdom and not your property”.
Not a significant murmur from the main body of the Scottish electorate was to be heard anywhere.
I listened to Call Kaye this am and had to turn it off – I’ve never heard so much sheer misinformed bullshit in my entire life. If that, and what I’m reading on Wings today are a reflection of the feelings of the Scottish electorate you can all get settled for being part of the so called United Kingdom forever.
After a massive display of the demands for independence in Edinburgh yesterday we have Wingers here whinging and claiming Nicola Sturgeon, the SG and the SNP are all very, vert BAAAAD!
Enjoy On a forced choice they preferred Brexit to the Union, they really want both.You assume of course Brexit guarantees a Scottish Yes vote, Panelbase yesterday had Scots voting 52% No to 48% Yes for independence even in the event of No Deal, the hardest of Brexit outcomes
There will be no Brexit referendum two. Both Tory and Labour parties are as one on this. For them Brexit means the protection of Offshore tax havens Both Tory and Labour MP’s have a vested interest in these money laundering services and will protect them for there own greed and to hell with the consequences.
It would appear the SNP are throwing out mixed signals.
Good I’m glad. Keep the opposition at sixes and sevens.
The media want to get their teeth into them but this makes it more difficult.
The reason the SNP can’t stand at a Holyrood election on a anything other than a SNP 1 and 2 ticket is due to the way the voting system is set up.
If they were to endorse any second party then at some point a decision would be made to count both as a single entity.
When that happens might entirely depend on just how much it messed up a putative Yes alliance and timed to suit.
Besides which all that will happen is if the combined list vote was enough to gain the SNP an extra seat it’s probable at least one seat will be lost and they would be relying on one of more other parties. The Greens are bad enough. If Rise had actually managed to get a seat Christ knows where we’d be now.
The SNP exists to bring about Scotland’s independence. The leadership will not make the mistake of waiting until 2021. The suggestion that it should is a windup. And the trolls on here are having a field day.
To those on here who have never fought and never been defeated, I suggest that your amateur take on the right tactics are no more than exactly that. You are the real faint hearts, who are going to bubble and go in a huff if your pet theories aren’t embraced by the people who have stood and been elected to represent us. You who have no responsibility but know exactly what should be done. Maybe you should “slope off with Sillars” the geriatric infant who thinks we are all in the same pathetic “game” that he is playing.
The SNP will move when they consider the moment to be right. Metaphorically speaking, as someone above said, when we can see the whites of their eyes. Meantime the wider yes community needs to go on maintaining and sustaining the movement – as it has done so successfully – in the face of the constant barrage of fear mongering by the Brits.
I remember the day OBE was boasting about his selective distortion of a single “poll” (actually a survey) which showed YES at only 21% according to him. How the Unionists have fallen!
Just like autumn leaves in the “passed water” and wind coming from Westminster.
Watched the coalescence of the P1 assessment vote between the BBC and the unionist parties tonight in the Sarah Smith piece on BBC news. The point of the vote was never anything to do with the protecting P1 pupils, which were already being assessed by most of the parties which voted against assessments. It was always to use it as a foil to argue against another indyref, ignoring the will of parliament. Then the BBC would use this as an attack point on Nicol Sturgeon, it was so transparent that I believe we all saw this coming. Expect this now to be in the Theresa May quote book.
The flaw in their argument is that the people of Scotland can remove the SNP if they feel they are unhappy with them. No matter what Scotland does it can never remove the Tories from denying democracy in Scotland.
OT. re. the 24% of Scottish Tories who wish to play no part in cabinet government. Certainly not Scottish patriot, more like victims of Jockholm syndrome, IMHO. No wonder with the media pumping out non-stop British nationalist bias. Or perhaps incomers with no loyalty to Scotland. Whatever, they appear not to be realists, who would never place their security in the hands of another.
link to eprints.lse.ac.uk
Of course there also the much more wild possibility that the BritNats actually would prefer an second Indyref as early as possible and all this talk of refusal is just a smoke screen to get us to go now when they know they can still influence the vote in that they are “guaranteed” a victory.
There is a tipping point though and they must also know that they can only delay another referendum for so long as demand will become insatiable. They dare not risk that, for that is something they could no longer control.
They’re already losing control of the situation and I felt that most clearly on Saturday as I watched the marchers in their hordes walk down the Royal Mile with a sea of Saltires waving above them. I felt then that Independence was already here and was just waiting to be ratified.
We’ll likely see all kinds of trickery yet and we know that but the worst thing we can do in my mind is to let them get to us through their media attack lapdogs. Read their pathetic attempts at manipulation by all means as long as you remember to laugh and just keep laughing.
Never fall for the lies and trickery they are using now and will continue to use in order to split the support that Independence already has. It’s what they do best, again we know that.
Stay strong together and the weaker they will become.
We’ll have our second chance and I truly believe we have the right person in place to make the decision on our behalf as to when is the right time that Scotland has the greatest possible chance of becoming once more an Independent country. Keep the faith, it’ll truly sicken them.
This may seem slightly off topic but I believe it is important. Reports recently state that if the effects of global warming continue then the effect in 12 years would be disastrous in terms of the ice cap melting and rising sea levels.
To put it mildly, most of the South East of England ,and the Southern counties will be under water. Imagine the number of people involved. Millions.
What will be prized more than oil and gas? Fresh water and land is what. Whilst some areas of Scotland will be affected, generally, Scotland escapes with relative few problems.
I have no doubt this may also be a factor in Westminster thinking. They will need land to develop for their population affected by flooding, which will be permanent.
.
We still have to get an actual referendum bill through the parliament I believe. After the franchise has been set.
The Greens have previously stated they would not support such a bill lacking a section 30 order…..
In my view the reason for section 30 orders or an election to give the referendum validity is to help what comes next. A yes vote is just the beginning, we then need international recognition. So we play canny a try manufacture a mandate via a section 30 order on a GE on a ticket of running a fresh referendum, The Greens would be unwise to try and undermine that.
And with that vote, Westminster has no say in the running of a fresh referendum.
But we have a mandate we can hold up to world at large for holding a referendum.
HYUFD
You’re not registered to vote in Scotland so have no say on the matter, kindly do one. Or did you not believe me that your comments are those of a racist, from the perspective of cultural psychology. The days of colonial rule are long gone, old chap.
Thepnr says:
8 October, 2018 at 6:03 pm
The media are always attempting to “put pressure” on the First Minister over the timing of another Independence referendum and in my opinion using Independence supporters to do it for them:…
It’s not the timing which unsettles me, but the grievous changes in circumstances which occur the very instant Scotland is Brexited out of Europe.
We change from a stoic Nation with the latent potential for defending it’s sovereignty into a meek and gutless Nation which has allowed itself to suffer the consequences of subjugation.
We change from Nation which Europe might directly help and encourage if we even just make the attempt to get to our feet, and transform ourselves into a “UK region” which Europe can only regard from afar. We take ourselves out of their equations. At the same stroke, all our European friends and neighbours who see Scotland as their home will lose their stakehold in Scotland, and lose voting franchise. These votes are not just numbers we might depend upon, but they represent a physical manifestation of the cultural integration we all like to talk about. Yes, perhaps you come from a different country, but we will treat you as one of us. Brexit drops a bomb on all of that.
I don’t care whether the starting gun is fired tomorrow, next week, next month or a week before Brexit. BUT WE MUST STOP THIS TIRESOME PROCRASTINATION AND START LAYING DOWN THE SCOTS LAW ABOUT WHO DOES WHAT WITH OUR SOVEREIGNTY.
For the love of God, STOP handing all the initiative over to Westminster and leaving ourselves cornered and hamstrung by their chaotic incompetence.
Why the blazes is there a proposal to alter the UK Constitution which has somehow managed to avoid being killed off stone dead by the inalienable nature of Scotland’s popular Sovereignty???
If they won’t take us seriously, GREAT! Let them play their parlour games, as we quietly assume total command of our Sovereignty without them and bring it home to Edinburgh. Mr Barnier, if you wish to resolve issues with Scotland, then henceforth you speak to Holyrood, not Westminster.
Finally, I cannot tell you how much it grates on my nerves when the SNP draw their line at “retain access to the Single Market”. It is the jarring sound of breaking glass to me. I voted to STAY IN THE EU. That, not merely access to the Single Market, is the mandate you were given.
We don’t have the luxury of waiting until 2019-2022 or whenever… We have a DEADLINE for March next year and it is barrelling towards us.
Rock (27th August 2017 – “Underneath the Goodyear blimp”):
“Scotland was on the verge of independence immediately after the Brexit vote.
The unionist parties were without leaders and completely lost, the SNP had 56 out of 59 MPs and 50% of the vote, the EU’s eyes were (favourably) on Scotland.
But Nicola squandered a once in a 1000 years golden opportunity by wasting more than a year flogging a dead horse – a separate deal for Scotland which was never going to happen.
The result: Nicola outsmarted by the collusion between Saints Theresa and Ruth on one hand, and Corbyn on the other, fall in SNP support from 50% to 37%.
It is my prediction that there will be a “snap” Brexit and the SNP will be caught napping and unable to hold a second independence referendum.
Or another “snap” Westminster election with the SNP again losing support.
Despite the pretendy “sovereignty” and boasting of the clueless pompous armchair pundits posting here, Scotland is again as far away from independence as ever.
If they succeed in neutralising the Rev. Stuart Campbell and WOS, independence will be “stone dead” for at least 620 years.”
Challenge to the usual suspects:
Do you have the guts to go on the record and state that there will definitely be an independence referendum before Brexit has been completed?
Anyone in favour of calling it for March Just go for it. Anyone in favour can e-Mail or write to the SNP HQ and suggest to call it for March, or April, May. Whenever. There is two/three years to do it. Any date anyone wants e-Mail SNP HQ’s with the date.
That is what the consultation going on is about. When to call it. When the grass roots suggests. That’s what the SNP wants to know. Just go for it.
The rest of the UK is overwhelming in favour of Scottish Independence Ref. According to the Polls, They support it. It is only unionists MP’s in the rest of the UK who do not support it. In a total minority. It is only Westminster unionist MP who do not support as a power base. The Polls indicate a very small minority in the UK are in favour of keeping the Union.
Remember the majority of Scottish taxes are going into Westminster Treasury coffers and have to be return to Scotland. In instalments? Doubt if it is paid in yearly in one sum. It’s the civil servants that deal,with the exchange details. The Scottish civil service discusses problem with the UK civil servants under instructions from members of both government. To sort things out.
The civil servants run the countries. Leslie Deans must be a bit suspect. What she would get up to. Playing for both sides. Under the Official Secrets Act. M15/M16 or CIA? surveillance etc. They could corruptly be listening it. Reporting back to May and the Tories.
Scotland would need to look to borrowing either with agreement from Westminster Treasury, the ECB (they have done it many times before). Or on the open market. Or a combination of both or all. Kind if needs a central bank set up or a separate agreement with the ECB.
A timely reminder to read my copy of The National.
@Arthur thomson 7:49pm
Well said. Remember how much the pro-indy movement has achieved in the last few years. Now still well on track.
I’m with Breeks. Scotland voted to stay in the EU, and anything less is a betrayal of the primary responsibility of Government, i.e. to defend the national sovereignty. All I want is the opportunity to gain access to inalienable human rights I am currently prevented from accessing, e.g. the “Right to Development”.
Inaction or inadequacy of response from the SNP, would suggest the dream is dead.
@Bob Mack
Entirely agree. At the top of the wealth hierarchy is physical assets – resources.
We don’t exist without food, water and energy
The (govt backed) London ponzi economy doesn’t exist without the above. The false economics perpetuated by the MSM propaganda machine seems to have backfired with almost 80pc of tory voters willing to lose scotland in order to leave the EU.
@starlaw says: 8 October, 2018 at 7:39 pm:
” … There will be no Brexit referendum two. Both Tory and Labour parties are as one on this.”
Correct, starlaw, but when is it going to dawn upon you that all this party politics stuff has always been a scam to fool the electorate? In the beginning the vision they showed to the people was of a democracy in which the people chose one of their own to represent them in a democracy of a parliament in which the monarchy was to be only a figurehead and the people’s elected MPs at Westminster were running the Kingdom instead of the monarchs who had previously been often cruel rich and dictators.
The kingdom, it was then just the Kingdom of England, was to be split into its more or less, “constituent parts”, (a.k.a. constituencies), and from their elected representatives they would, from within their own rank, choose a Prime Minister and other officials to form a cabinet of ministers to rule instead of a monarch.
Note, though, they did not do away with the monarch and become a republic but they left the then monarchy as still legally sovereign but unlike in Scotland where the monarchy was made not legally sovereign the English parliament made the monarchy, (Mary & William), legally delegate their sovereign powers to the Parliament of the Kingdom of England leaving them legally sovereign but supposedly powerless.
Only after the parliament and their new rule of law got going did they then start up the system of political parties but that was for their benefit and not that of the electorate. It was for powerful individual members to gain the positions in the cabinet and the power. Party politics had began.
But note that it makes no difference to the individual members whether they are supposedly in government or in opposition for the remuneration of the MPs is the same. Only the cabinet and shadow cabinet ministers get extra remuneration. Note though that if the whole Kingdom comes under outside threat they choose a War Cabinet that is cross-party.
They had become the Westminster Establishment and remain so even after the Treaty of Union and have treated their Scottish Kingdom Partners as if as inferior members and the Treaty of Union only grudgingly allowed some Scots Members to join as observers and the Scots not as partners but as a dominion taken over by England.
They have always been the Establishment even although the names of the parties changes from time to time. Where now are the Whigs?
Hre is a cut & Paste extract about the Westminster Political Party system:-
Just vote SNP/SNP. Holyrood. If enough folk do they will get another all out majority. Do not vote for any other Party, it just delutes the vote. Pushes up the Opposition total.
If everyone had voted SNP/SNP and had not given their second vote to the Greens, The SNP would once again have had outright majority. If everyone does that abd goes out to vote, The SNP will always gain a majority. Not have to rely on any Party. It gives much more freedom so they can do want the voters want them to do. Their manifesto objectives. Same Council elections. Only SNP. It clears out the opposition.
By now people must know to go out and vote. That is if people support Independence and good governance.
I notice Mike Russell saying something similar in this article, right at the end. Essentially saying that UK Govt controls Scotland’s ability to have a referendum.
Mr Russell, I’ve some news for you. The reason why Cameron agreed to the last one is because he thought No would walk it. But now, they’d be terrified. In other words, if you wait until Westminster agree to another referendum, you’ll be waiting a feckin long time….
link to bbc.co.uk
Mike Russell
Are you for real? Do you understand what self-determination means? Are you not aware of the relevant international law?
@Bob Mack
The massive ice cap that was over Scotland,pushed our country down and lifted England up especially the South Coast (white cliffs were under the sea) like a see saw,
since the ice caps receded Scotland has been rising back up while England has been slowly returning to the sea,
global warming causing the ice caps to melt will make the seas rise higher as England sinks more and more,
England could disappear from the Earth like Atlantis in less than a 1000 years.
Seems kind of apt to mention one of the tactics William the Conqueror, of England at least, was claimed to have used to win at Hastings. It was to feign a panicked retreat in the hopes an enthusiastic enemy smelt victory and chased them down breaking their own formation and thus turning their assumed victory in to defeat.
Seems less than a month since we had a recounting of a string of stupidity on the part of the Scottish Army starting with running out of those with military experience from their ranks and ending with sacrificing their advantage in a mistaken belief their enemy was on the brink of collapse.
There’s probably more examples of Scotland getting ahead of themselves out there. There’s nothing wrong with ambition though and caution might be just as deadly. Perhaps we really need to take a stand against the idea that if we don’t win the next referendum it’ll be the last.
If the Greens hold back support for a Referendum. They are finished. They only got many votes because of their stated support for Independence. Especially from SNP supporters. If they renege they never be forgiven. They will be finished. They have a habit of reneging upon their own policies. Six white middle class men sitting there. Shows their non commitment to diversity. Just a token gesture of commitment. Not followed through. The next Holyrood Election could give the SNP an outright majority.
If everyone e-Mails or writes the SNP with their suggested date. They might calculate the most favoured and set the next IndyRef around it. With other factors, late Spring or Autumn. Before or after the holiday period. Not Christmas. For canvassing etc.
Forget about Kevin Pringles, the FORMER Director of Strategic Communications, and the Jim Sillars of the world … past his sell by date since 1992.
Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear, over and over again, that she will make an announcement about Indyref2 when she / we know what kind of a deal Big T is going to get or more than likely not going to get. She needs clarity on this to highlight the catastrophic impact it will have on Scotland and use as a comparison with what an independent Scotland will have to offer (debates on currency, pensions etc). More than anything she has to know that Brexit is actually going to go ahead … I know ….. but you never know, lol.
She’s stated that she’s drawn a line in the sand when it comes to dragging us out of the EU SM / CU. Whatever way you want to look at it the Tories will be dragging us out of both.
She, Nicola, also knows that she can say what she likes about EU Ref2 because it will never materialise.
I notice there’s a lot of cherrypicking going on here in relation to what the SNP should have done at any given point in time since 2014, missed chances and so on, as an example we had 56 out of 59 SNP politicians at Westminster in 2015, so should have called UDI. Unfortunately the majority of sovereign Scots didn’t want Scotland to be independent at that time and calling for a UDI could have led to civil disruption, a veritable civil war. Right up Westminster’s street.
I’ll put my faith in Nicola Sturgeon. She’s managed to steer this ship, and maintain course, through stormy seas: ever changing circumstances in particular over the last two years. She’s doing her day job for ALL Scots – plus, plus, plus It’s down to us now to do ours – get the stats up. And if you haven’t done so already consider joining the SNP to put the wind right up Westminster’s Union Jackery. If there’s one thing they don’t like it’s a show of strength and conversely of course they love nothing more than seeing so-called independence supporters running Nicola Sturgeon and the SNP down to the ground. Don’t give them the pleasure.
Scott Finlayson Bangladesh, the Netherlands, New Orleans, Venice etc are all likely to disappear because of rising sea levels before England does, even if you will only be cheering on the latter!
Cameron Brodie The comment was regarding the views of English Tories, I am an English Tory, or am I barred from commentary relating specifically to a group I belong to? Presumably on your view any Scot who does not support independence is a racist too towards their own race?
Probably the most important part of this article has little to do with the timing of a second referendum but the means of achieving one. The Rev points out two possible routes and it’s the first that interests me the most.
That’s the one where the SNP prop up a Labour government in return for an agreement on a Section 30 order. I’m interested because there’s every chance that another General Election could happen well before 2021 and as soon as spring next year in fact. Not saying it will but it’s not as crazy as some other opinions floating around.
Where I find myself in total agreement with him is the last sentence of these two paragraphs:
Westminster understands only the language of force, which means there are only two possible practical ways to bring about a second indyref. One is to hold the balance of power in a minority Labour government and dare it to refuse power in the name of blocking Scottish democracy:
(It can only work on a minority Labour government, because the SNP couldn’t under any circumstances vote to put the Tories in power. This, incidentally, is also why it’s just monumentally stupid to vote Scottish Labour if you want independence – you’d be actively throwing away your own bargaining chips.)
As much as it might stick in anyone’s craw it will be Scottish Labour voters supporting Independence that finally brings everything you dreamed of to reality.
It’s a dilemma for those Scottish Labour voters that don’t support Independence though if they want a Labour government then the best way of achieving that is by getting rid of as many Tories as possible including in Scotland. With the polls currently showing both labour and the Tories losing 6 MP’s down to 1 and 7 respectively in another GE that’s not going to help Labour form a government. labour voters though in Tory held seats could wipe out at least 6 of them and even all of them including Mundell by switching their vote to the SNP.
By themselves they have no chance whatsoever in winning these seats, so if they want rid of a Tory they MUST vote SNP.
Sorry Robert, The Scots don’t have a revolt in them, along with our English and Welsh Neighbors. You have to pick a point and make a stand and for me losing my EU status was that point. Of course that makes me a troll in your eyes. FFS
I think the EU will give Treeza one last chance to state her case for Brexit at the EU Summit on the 18th Oct.
If she turns up spouting the same bullshit that everyone has rejected, then the EU will pull the plug on the whole deal and make preparations for the UK leaving the EU without a deal.
Until then Nicola’s hands are tied.
Hyufd,
You really are dim. Read the report commissioned by your Tory government last year on rising sea levels and the effect on the UK. Did you know all our nuclear stations are coastal and will be affected.
You speak in ignorance unfortunately, and will probably remain so.
Oi. Anyone questioning Kevin’s indy credentials will answer to me. I don’t agree with him all the time, and certainly not on this occasion, but I will not be standing for any aspersions cast on his dedication to the cause.
Kevin may no longer be working in an official context for the SNP, but I’ve known him long enough that I don’t have the slightest doubt in his continued belief in independence. For one thing, his wife (who writes for The National, you may have heard of it) wouldn’t stand for it!
Orri says:
The reason the SNP can’t stand at a Holyrood election on a anything other than a SNP 1 and 2 ticket is due to the way the voting system is set up.
If they were to endorse any second party then at some point a decision would be made to count both as a single entity.
————–
lib dems and tories and all labour msps (bar dugdale in one interview) campaigned for there respective parties in 2017, but the unionist voters decided to vote tactically to keep out the snp. this is in spite of there respective campaigns.
the snp would be duty bound to campaign for snp 1 and 2
ken
in central scotland and fife, the unionists won 6 of the 7 list seats, the greens won the 7th. had everyone in this area voted snp rather than greens the unionists would have won all 7. fact. please check the figures.
however, trying to convince folk to give the greens (or rise) their 2nd vote failed the last time and would do so again. it is doubtful if they even deserve support from the yes movement for the way they have behaved recently.
however, in 7 of the 8 regions, the snp won 1 list seat. i repeat, 1. the figures dont lie. the only way tactical voting would work is if
1. people accepted that it could and would ensure an indy majority of msps
2. we could identify a group of people that indy voters trust and support, eg stu, james kelly, wgd, peter bell etc
3. everyone backed the idea
if it doesnt have full backing by everyone…….. it wont work
The Indy Movement has indeed come a long way in a few short years.
It is now becoming commonplace to see support for Independence sitting at 50%.
Oh what we would have done for that in 2011 when the first Indy Ref was called.
There’s obvious media bias at a UK level, however, there’s also a large element of not actually understanding nor following the Scottish political narrative. Inside the London bubble they genuinely only see things in terms of Labour, Tory, UK, EU, NI, and Brexit.
It’s like news to them that the SNP’s red line is continued single market membership. Has been since EURef, hasn’t changed.
Or, there is no awareness that the SG has a mandate to hold Indyref2 under the very circumstances which are unfolding.
Or, that the SNP making an issue of not having Scotland’s views respected is something new.
Or, a rerun of EURef is pointless for Scotland if our will is ignored all over again.
So where have they been all this time? Simple, cut off inside their own wee London Bubble.
Ken500 says:
If the Greens hold back support for a Referendum. They are finished. They only got many votes because of their stated support for Independence. Especially from SNP supporters. If they renege they never be forgiven. They will be finished
————
I think they are already finished, in some regions, the difference between the support for the snp in the constituency vote and list exactly mirrored the green % of support in the list vote.
ergo, the greens support came from snp voters. the reason they didnt win more list seats is because of the lack of faith the snp and yes voters have in the greens. Im not sure i blame the yes votes distrust in the greens, especially in light of recent events
tactical voting will win an indy majority at holyrood, the figures dont lie. however, this will only happen if yes supporters actually support the idea.
that rules out the greens
@Breeks
Here’s a very recent tweet from Nicola Sturgeon@
link to twitter.com
“The people I serve voted 62% to remain the EU.”
It’s in connection with the “People’s Vote”, but it stands on its own.
It’s all coming to a boil very soon, we need to be ready with teabags, sugar and milk!
Bob Mack None of which contradicts a single word I said. Rising sea levels will affect countries across the world, many of which are lower lying than England, it is not just an English problem
There are 800,000 English people living in Scotland they may not live here all the time but when it comes down to it they say they are living here so they can vote here.
They make up a third of the NO vote and are prepared to vote tactically changing from Tory to labour or lib dem all they want to do is keep Scotland under the control of England it’s power to their elbow they feel like colonialists but rarely behave like one because they are outnumbered but they do not have respect for Scotland or Scottish people ,they do think Scotland is too stupid too small too poor and wholly reliant on their country England .
So many people on this site comment on why independence support never goes above fifty percent but this is the reason ,all the English voters and of course the repeated downsizing of the pro independence support numbers which have risen since the last independence referendum .
There are Tories who will never change there are labour voters who misguidedly think socialism through the Labour Party is still possible even though evidence clearly shows labour as red Tories and there are the English voters who want England to control Scotland ,they each make up a third of the NO vote.
Cambridge analytics will still be working to undermine voting in Scotland by gathering information about us from Facebook twitter and other similar sites .
The commission for elections is corrupt we already have experience showing this.
England treated other countries the same India Ireland and even USA all suffered the corrupt underhand behaviours of Westminster and its House of Lords.
Worse is still to come for Scotland.
Be ready for your human rights being deprived and expect it to spread quickly.
We have a fight on our hands
We will win eventually
Independence always wins
Funny how NOW is NEVER the time for another referendum.
Collie May will propose the whole UK stays in a Customs Union as the NI backstop according to weekend reports to get the Withdrawal Agreement and Transition Period until a technical solution is found to the Irish border question. Negotiations will then begin in the transition period on a FTA kicking the issue down the road a few years, possibly up to and even beyond the next Holyrood elections in 2021 where current polling suggests the SNP and Greens will lose their majority over Labour, the LDs and the Tories (especially if the transition period is further extended beyond December 2020)
‘Cherrypicking’ Petra?……no, our sovereignty was thrown away over a throw of a crooked dice in 2014. With less than 70 years of universal sufferage and less than 7 years of SNP government we had the chance to finally call the Brits out on the basis of their so called ‘Representative Democracy’…..i.e. parliamentary seats, not votes.
We had 56 out of 59. That was sufficient to demand dissolution of Parliament into its constituent two halves of England and Wales/N.I and Scotland. This was recognised by Westminster..but we offered them a chance to put a REF halter round our necks. This was not UDI….but the breaking of a mutually agreed contract that haD been dishonoured and traduced by the other partner. We didn’t need to count up the numbers. We had the breaches of the Union to prove that it was broken and the seats to provide the legitimacy to call off the charade of democracy we were labouring under.
Now..we are faced with a Brit State hegemony of NOT EVER, never mind not now, and of servile cowed pleas for a Referendum…which will be refused.
Then if we take it into our own hands…as a region…thanks to REF1 and the Supreme Court and the new BRITNAT constitution being planned…and guess what?….then we have a real UDI situation with resident Unionists refusing to vote and recognise it….and where does that leave us?
Great article Rev,
A barrelfull of logical angles to be factored in to any logical solutions. Some are developing so unknown while some are fixed perceptions, in the grand-scheme timing is everything now.
Everybody ready? Good, now HOLD.. almost indefinitely if need be.
@Hyufd,
Try telling them that when it’s their property disappearing under the waves. Don’t think they will worry too much about New Orleans then old chap!
Terence Callachan Not in Quebec, not in Catalonia, not in Chechyna, not in Tibet, not in Kashmir, no independence campaigns do not always win
Nor in Kurdistan either
Tories may not be in power to do anything about Brexit deals Sounds as if DUP their bed chums are falling out of love. Divorce and election imminent.
When it comes to bananas the Man from Epping Forest, he say YES!
Bob Mack There are 14 countries more at risk of losing a higher percentage of their land from flooding than the UK (of which England forms the largest part), including big countries like Japan, the Phillippines and Indonesia, as well as Vietnam, Denmark, the Netherlands, Belgium and the UAE. As I said rising sea levels have to be tackled globally, the UK and certainly not just England alone cannot reduce emissions enough to resolve the problem of melting icecaps
link to weather.com
HYUFD
You could be Polynesian for all I care, You aren’t registered to vote in Scotland, so your concerns are superfluous to the debate. Your intrusion indicates you lack manners and decorum, though this should come as no surprise as you are a Tory.
Trolls, such as yourself, are simply socially inadequate saddos. Kindly show some respect for Others and desist from commenting further.
Bob Mack There may be enough Labour and LD MPs who will back May’s Withdrawal Agreement to see it pass even without the DUP, though of course if May agrees the whole UK will stay in the Customs Union as the backstop that avoids the DUP red line of a border in the Irish Sea
An interesting link I found, worth reading in a guarded fashion as it’s quite frank and brutal to itself:
link to siol-nan-gaidheal.org
and a generally useful page there which seems totally genuine to me:
link to siol-nan-gaidheal.org
All Under One Banner is very inclusive, and should be. It doesn’t mean we all agree with all of what the groups there represent, as long as none pretend they do represent us all. We all have Independence in common, warts and all!
@Terence callachan “There are 800,000 English people living in Scotland”
No, there are not.
Hey fud,
You did see the scientists conclusions on the news today about the sea rising possibly 2m this decade. Start swimming lessons. It primarily is an English problem as far as these islands go.
Westminster won’t give you guys anything.
Scotland is part of the United Kingdom
We OWN you. You can whine all you like but that’s how it is!
Only a fool looks at the Green and SNP List vote and regional one and insist that it’s a one way street.
You’d be better looking at RISE and seeing they might have spoiled the Greens or even SNP getting seats.
I suppose the only way to end this crap is to go for a hybrid FPTP STV system or straight multi member STV system. As it stands there’s a definite imbalance in favour of parties at Holyrood.
I believe we are presently waiting on two very important court rulings
a) The Supreme Court, does Westminster or Holyrood have the right to take back the devolved powers legislation from Brussels, result due in October.
b). European Court of Justice, can the Article 50 decision be reversed, result due 27th November.
Am I correct in thinking the results of these rulings could enable Scotland to remain in the Single Market and Customs Union and holding the full range of all powers which are presently devolved to Brussels?
@Thepnr says: 8 October, 2018 at 8:00 pm:
” … since I’ve been around this fight since the SNP had no elected members anywhere you can appreciate I’ve learned patience the hard way. I thought we could never find a new leader as good as Alex Salmond but I do believe we rally have found one in Nicola Sturgeon.
However, never forget that the SNP has attracted more legally trained people per elected members than any other party. There mast be a reason that the indy movement has such a high percentage of lawyers in the party and that is without counting the SG employed or the SNP employed legal teams.
The party has probably the best legal advice there is to be had. I’ve been into the legal side of the indy thing since I was a wee schoolboy and I used to get frustrated by the ignorance of the truth of what the Union really was among really genuine indy supporters.
Anyway we have a lawyer at the helm now and I note some other legal people who are elected members are saying some things not yet seeming to have impressed upon rank & file members something I have mentioned on Wings before.
Indy may come very suddenly from a very unexpected source that few have even thought about and probably never come close to the consciousness of the Yoons.
To my mind, the basic mistake was made by compromising the basic principle at the very beginning of all this. The Scottish people are sovereign. Not the parliament, not the government (the executive) and not the First Minister. Nicola, it seems to me, perhaps understandably but to my great regret, thought she could overrule the clearly stated will of the sovereign Scottish people.
On nothing other than her own ‘authority’, she declared that no matter what the Scottish people had wanted and voted for – which was the long-held and never-overturned SNP policy that we would remain full members of the EU – she, and therefore Scotland, would settle for something less than that, Namely, mere membership of the Customs Union and the Single Market woud do fine instead.
The Scottish people were never asked about this and neither, to my knowledge, were the SNP. There was no vote on the matter in an SNP Conference – and we are always told that it is Conference that makes policy – and the will of the Scottish people was deleted overnight. I actually want to remain fully in Europe, as a full player in the EU. I don’t want to be a marginalised bystander, who sees the EU only as a way of gaining economic advantages. There is more to the EU than just money and gain.
There may have been all kinds of apparently good reasons which led Nicola to make that decision. But it was unconstitutional.
It may have seemed the prudent thing to do, in order to prevent a hard border between England and a future independent Scotland; it may have been foreseen (no doubt correctly) that the emergence of such a hard border with our southern neighbours would have been a major handicap for the independence cause in a second indy-ref campaign (something which our opponents would have exploited mercilessly); more pragmatically, it may have been seen as a compromise that would prevent any split in the SNP, since it was well known that 30% of the membership had voted ‘leave’. (Thus Alex Neil, for example, was allowed to contradict official SNP policy very publicly, and vociferously, without the slightest reprimand.) Anti-EU rhetoric was made acceptable overnight within the SNP, overruling SNP policy without the SNP’s Conference even being consulted on the matter.
That there was genuine concern about such matters is understandable. Nicola’s decision might be understandable, and even some who did not at first like it may now retrospectively applaud it, for all I know. But none of these factors change the fact that the decision taken was unconstitutional.
No politician, no First Minister has the right to overrule the clearly stated will of the Scottish people. Either the people are sovereign, or they are not.
And in Scotland they are undoubtedly sovereign. The legal position is clearly stated from the first decade of the 14th Century onwards. And it is consistently held thereafter, down through the centuries. The UK has never been able to produce a written constitution because it is a union between two countries that in fact are founded on radically different, indeed fundamentally incompatible, constitutional principles. A point, incidentally, which Robert Peffers explained very clearly and cogently in one of his more recent posts on Wings.
Whatever the reasons behind her decision, I do not doubt that Nicola thought she was doing the best thing she could for Scotland first of all, and also for her Party, and also in view of our future situation when we do at last become independent. I am sure she thought that she was protecting all our interests. That is, the genuine interests of all Scots, the whole country, including those of political persuasions other than hers and ours, when she declared that membership of the Customs Union and the Single Market would be enough for us. But she should not have done it. And certainly not in the way that she did.
Her intentions may have been the very best, but that does not overturn the plain fact that she did not have the power or authority to overturn the people’s decision without their consent. The declaration she made was intrinsically invalid. Because it undermined the basic constitutional principle on which Scotland rests as a political entity.
Legally speaking, if she wanted the sovereign Scottish people to agree to her new position, overturning their clear ‘Remain’ vote, she needed to go back to them and get their consent for what she was now saying. This was not an impossible thing to do. If the SNP manifesto in the last General Election had said that ‘in the present circumstances, a Brexit deal which keeps Scotland in the CU and the Single Market will be the minimum that is acceptable to the SNP’, this would have given her the mandate she needed for her preferred position.
However, as far as I remember – please correct me if I am wrong – that point did not appear in the SNP manifesto.
I am serious when I say ‘please correct me if I am wrong’. I really do want to be wrong … Because that overturning of the clearly stated will of the Scottish people, which actually confirmed a policy that the SNP had consistently stood up for for decades (‘a free Scotland fully within the EU’), quite literally took my breath away at the time. And it still does. For the first time, it seemed to me, an SNP politician acted as if the people were not sovereign in Scotland.
To be honest, I could not believe it. I never thought that such a thing would ever happen. How could the SNP, of all people, undermine the basic tenet on which the Scottish polity and its constitution are founded.
This principle, incidentally, is what made the Bruce monarchy legitimate. Robert Bruce, the Scottish parliament declared, is the rightful King of Scots because the Scottish people chose him to be their king. That did not give Robert Bruce the right to ignore or undermine or contradict the wishes of the very people who had conferred their authority upon him – as a further ‘Declaration’ (in fact, a Letter, to Pope John XXII) affirmed a few years later, in 1320. If he did so undermine them, or act contrary to their wishes, they would depose him.
I do understand that the outcome of the EU referendum left the SNP in a particularly difficult situation. The scenarios that could arise were endless, and finding the right way through them was never going to be an easy matter. I do understand the need to think very hard about the strategy to adopt, out of a host of possibilities.
But, in the midst of all that, however inconvenient they might be, there were – and there still are – some basic principles with which no one can meddle. And the most basic of all is this, that the people of Scotland are sovereign.
There is no getting away from that principle. And no one – no one at all – can override it with impunity. Anyone meddling with it, even for the best of motives, is liable to come unstuck in the end. Politicians who contradict it are ultimately contradicting, and therefore cancelling out, their own authority. This might not be apparent immediately, but it will be eventually …
It is time for the SNP to get real. It is perfectly clear that the strategy to keep the whole of the UK – and therefore Scotland – in both the Customs Union and the Single Market has failed. Mrs May has told us time and again that we are not getting it: it just isn’t going to happen. We should take her at her word.
It seems to me, in accordance with what Scotland voted for, we should have been talking up the EU – i.e. full EU membership, Scotland’s clear option – ever since the Brexit vote. And educating people on the advantages of such membership. We should have been allowed to hear a lot more from the likes of Alyn Smith and other SNP leaders who remain clearly pro-EU.
Instead, by not listening to the people – and by ‘offering’ a watered down ‘compromise’ for which the Scottish people had given no mandate – we lost the initiative. And, no longer leading the way on the sound basis of Scottish principles, we allowed the narrative to slip away from us. That narrative, even in Scotland, then became dominated by the echoes emanating from the various factions forming the anti-European mob down in Westminster.
The SNP seemed to do nothing to counteract this by talking up the advantages of remaining fully within the EU, even though Scotland had voted for that, and it was its own official party policy. If they had done, simply sticking to their own and Scotland’s guns, they would have been reaping the benefits now. And, as a side-effect, it is even possible – no more than that, but at least possible – that they would have been having a beneficial influence on swaying English public opinion back to some kind of normality and common sense as well.)
As it is, they have seemed to dither. And those who seem to dither don’t gain much, or even any real momentum from the public. We stick with them, of course, because the SNP are the only viable means to independence. But they are static when they should have been rising high in the polls by now, and if they keep dithering the chances are that more and more people will turn away from them. To be trusted by the people, the people need to know clearly what you are about. And that clarity is not sufficiently evident, not sufficiently visible, at the moment.
(It is not enough for the SNP to be clear in themselves – if indeed they are – they have to be seen by the public to be clear. There is a communication problem. What they are communicating at the moment is hesitancy, not clarity. Clear messaging is essential in politics, as is consistency with clear principles. Simple principles, which can be easily understood.)
Instead of leading us into battle, the SNP increasingly allowed itself to be painted deeper and deeper into a corner. It did so by putting itself into a position of perpetually waiting to see what the others would do. We’ll wait and see what happens, and then we’ll decide … not for too long, only until such and such a time … Then when such and such a time arrives, it hasn’t gone quite the way we expected, things aren’t yet clear enough, so we’ll wait a bit further … and the next time round, again we wait a bit further … then further still … don’t worry, we’ll give another update, in due course, once the fog clears … and so on … and so on.’
In the end, more and more people will think the fog is not ‘out there’, but in the minds of the SNP. The message unwittingly conveyed to Joe Public is that ‘We [the SNP] don’t know what to do!’ ‘We can’t decide anything until other people decide …’ ‘We’re waiting for the cookie to crumble first, and then we’ll jump for the bit that suits us …’ But if you wait till after the cookie crumbles, you will have waited too long … Don’t you have principles of your own on which to base yourselves? Or are your positions simply derived from whatever your opponents do, by reacting to them in whatever way seems to you opportune at the time … ?
I do not believe that that is the style of the SNP, and I trust it is not really what they are doing. But in politics, perceptions matter. And if the SNP watch out, that’s how more and more people will perceive them …
The SNP – or should I really say ‘Nicola’, or at least ‘Nicola and those around her’? – in fact ‘decided’ to become re-active, instead of pro-active. Disastrous, it seems to me, and not very bold. They would respond to situations as they arose, rather than being the driving force that would bring the real issues to the fore.
Sometimes you have to take the bull by the horns. Otherwise it will gore you. There were principles at stake here, and they were needed in order to steer the ship through! But having abandoned – or at least ignored – the biggest of them, what use were the lesser ones which devolve from it going to be?
The situation that had arisen was not going to be solved by just waiting for the opportune moment to arrive and then, when all the cards had fallen nicely for us, going for it. They never do; the opportune moment never arises like that. If you want the opportunity to happen you have to make it happen. You can’t just wait for others to make the mistakes you need so that everything will then fall into your lap. If you let them make the running, you risk putting yourself out the game.
The initiative, so clearly with the independence movement immediately after the pro-Brexit vote, has been tamely handed over to our opponents … and we increasingly feel as if we are being left in a perpetual waiting room. Where have all these strategies, all this hypothetical planning in function of hypothetical scenarios that might or might never arise, led us? Further and further away, it seems to me, from the clear principles that would in the long run – indeed, even now – have carried the day.
The people were clear in their pro-EU stance, and they deserve clarity from their leaders. We can’t swirl in the fog for ever and ever, waiting for a command that seems as if it is never going to come …
We do not know what may be going on behind the scenes in terms of Scotland’s relation with Europe. Maybe there are positive things happening there which cannot be made public, and maybe they are even a key factor in what looks like the SNP’s dithering and procrastination. I do hope that there is something very positive happening there behind the scenes, although my confidence that such is the case is not high. While I can sympathise with those who wanted the EU to do more for the Catalan independence movement than they ostensibly seemed to, my impression is that the EU made a lot of positive moves behind the scenes in a way that was in fact more effective than taking public positions would have been.
The clamour on the part of many Scottish independent supporters for the EU to do more for the persecuted leaders of the Catalan movement was understandable, but in my view misplaced. It was based on a failure to understand what the EU actually is, including the limited nature of its powers over its member states. An opportunity was missed there, it seems to me, to educate people here at home in Scotland on what the EU can and cannot do in terms of interfering in the internal affairs of the states that compose it. The fact that each of them remains self-governing, with its own constitution which the organs of the EU are bound to respect and may not undermine. even augurs very well for us once we become independent. Scotland is and always was a unitary state, with clearly defined boundaries, but post-independence it is quite possible that our southern neighbour will foster breakaway movements wherever they can, especially in the islands and maybe even in parts of the border country. Membership of the EU will be a bulwark against any such interference in our internal affairs, and help Scotland maintain her integrity.
What I have written above is not meant as an anti-SNP or an anti-Nicola Sturgeon post. It is simply meant to encourage them and her, and all of us, to begin sooner rather than later to send out the right signals, so badly needed, and make the right moves. Independence is certainly within our grasp, but it will need some bold leadership to win it. Pleae don’t keep us waiting too long. No one is going to give it to us on a plate, for sure. And those most radically opposed to it will always be ready to use every dirty trick in the book, and some more. Even if we had won in 2014, just imagine the dirty games that would have been played when it came to negotiating the final settlement. What a cloud cuckoo land we were living in if we thought it would be fair, or easy. Those of us who were naive on that point last time round surely know better now, with English-Brit nationalism showing its tooth-and-claw nature ever more brazenly with every passing day …
Having said all this, if Nicola proves that I am quite wrong, and that she has been right all along, I will be delighted. If her strategy (whatever it really is) does prove itself correct by winning independence before (or even immediately after) the next Scottish parliamentary elections in 2021, no one will be happier than I will. But for that to happen, surely something will have to shift very radically, and very quickly.
We are fighting for Scotland’s very life, her continued existence, against those who really do seek – finally – to extinguish her, once and for all. Amazingly, after all these years of so-called Union and apparent co-operation, nothing really changed. The England of today is still – astonishingly – that of Edward I. Especially, specifically indeed, in its attitude towards Scotland.
@John Young,
More number 1 . If the Supreme Court accept the argument, then Brexit in Scotland is nullified.
Case 2 only means that article 50 could be extended as well as revoked by both UK or EU.
Arthur thomson at 7.49pm
And Petra @ 8.55pm
Well said both of you. Totally agree.
@wull
Support for Independence has neither lost the initiative nor the narrative as you appear to insist.
It is our support that it is on the increase. It is our voices that are being heard and then acted upon by people who ARE changing their mind and will support Independence for the very first time.
Ergo the SNP and the leadership must be doing something right. There is plenty that it is positive happening behind the scenes and right in front of our own eyes or did you miss the march in Edinburgh on Saturday.
After all you have written that evidence contradicts your view.
Poor Nicola. Doesn’t she know about the Sovereignty of Scots?
Sure share does, and she also knows that independence can only be gained when a majority of those Sovereign Scots choose to make it happen, which as far as I know has only happened in a poll this week, and involves a potential Brexit outcome
Mostly we have trailed even if by small margins. Fine margins call for fine judgements.
When May delivers Brexit, Brexit will deliver independence for Scotland.
Brexit is David Cameron’s gift to Scotland. Blood is thicker than water…or maybe David Cameron is thicker than….
…….(choose your own word to complete the sentence.)
CameronBBrodie I know nats like you like an echo chamber
Bob Mack Not entirely true, Tyne and Wear, Cumbria, Lancashire and Northumberland are seeing rising land levels, the Shetland Isles, Southern Ireland, South Wales and Western Ireland are seeing rising sea levels
link to telegraph.co.uk
Bob Mack Only 1 poll at the weekend had Yes ahead from Survation and then only with a No Deal Brexit where Yes led 52% to 48% and then that was contradicted by Panelbase which had No still ahead 52% to 48% even with No Deal Brexit
HYUFD
No, I just know a bit about social cognition and symbolic violence. You’re out of your depth with me, saddo.
Not settling for anything less than full EU membership is dummy spitting of the highest order. The DUP dictating no border in the Irish Sea is perhaps ignoring the reality that by not the UK continuing in the Single Market in some form there must be one between Republic of Ireland and mainland Britain. Both Scotland and NI being in would be a potential solution but ain’t going to happen.
The SNP need to be seen at least trying to advise a prudent workable Brexit. They might be accused of trying to simply exhaust all the possibilities but they can only “get away with that” if Westminster persist in their pig headed obsession with being in charge.
If the UK or a part including Scotland remain closely in sync with the EU then ascension becomes easier if we choose that path post independence. The risk is that it’ll be enough to quell the urge for independence for a while. That’s a risk I’d be willing to take as it’d mean it benefited Scotland. Perhaps not as much as full independence but I’m really not into hair shirts and self flagellation if the can be avoided.
Actually, England is sinking while Scotland rises above sea levels, according to new study from 2009.
The University of Durham looked at levels of land uplift and subsidence in the British isles since the Ice Age. As the ice retreated 20,000 years ago the release of the enormous weight meant the north slowly tilted up while the south sank down. Scotland is still experiencing this “springboard” effect while southern Ireland, Wales and England continues to sink.
CBB – indeed 😎
Next paragraph:
The new study shows that land levels could rise by up to 10cm in some areas of Scotland over the next century, offsetting the effects of sea level rise caused by global warming. But in parts of England, where the land is set to sink by up to 5cm over the next century, it could add between 10 to 33 per cent on sea level rises.
CameronBBrodie Show off your pseudo psychological analysis if you wish, however the fact you feel the need to end your second sentence with an insult shows who is the insecure one here!
yesindyref2
I don’t like being like that but enough is enough. 😉
@Hyufd, Tory government study last year predicted serious problems for England with rising water. Argue with them.
Amazing you advertise yourself as educated but refuse to learn anything. You think you know better than experts?
Bit of narcissistic behaviour sport.
HYUFD
In your dreams. Just pointing to the fact that you are simply an unwelcome and irrelevant waste space.
Correct me if I’m wrong but did Ireland not declare independence without an outright majority in the twenties?
Thank you for your comments, Thepnr and Bob Mack. I do sympathise with much of what both of you say. I think you will be able to see that if you re-read my post carefully, and take its nuances into account. Not that I expect you to agree with everything I say.
Of course I saw the Edinburgh march on Saturday – what makes you think I might have missed it? – and it was indeed heartening. And I did not say that absolutely everything the SNP leadership was doing was wrong, or that they were doing nothing right. I do know, of course, that the polls are very gradually moving upwards in favour of independence.
But what I did say was that I thought the pro-independence vote would by now have been polling far higher if the SNP had stuck more firmly to their own and Scotland’s basic principles, without following the compromise policy for which Nicola opted. I did not say she didn’t have reasons for doing that. My point was that they weren’t good enough reasons, and in my view – which no one has to agree with – they lost us the momentum which would have seen the surge towards independence keep growing and growing faster. The result is – in what is simply my opinion – we are not as far ahead as we could and would have been. That doesn’t mean the movement isn’t going forward – only that it is going in the right direction, but much slower than it should have been.
I pointed out that I, along with 62% of those Scots who voted in the EU referendum, chose to remain in Europe, thereby retaining our European citizenship. And the way things are going, unless I am mistaken (and I sincerely hope that I am), that is not going to happen.
On 29th March I and virtually all Scots in Scotland (except, maybe, those lucky enough to have an Irish Granny) are going to find ourselves outside the EU against our will. We will have lost our EU citizenship – something that would also happen even if we did remain in the Customs Union and the Single Market.
I expressed my regret that the SNP Government did not respect the pro-European decision of the sovereign Scottish people when it was duty bound to do so. As far as we can see, it also failed to stand up and fight more openly for my own and other Scots’ rights in this matter. All this seemed to me to contradict the basic constitutional principle of the sovereignty of the Scottish people. The point about constitutional principles is that you can’t play around with them, no matter how inconvenient they may be for you politically.
The old Scottish adage ‘Wha’ daur meddle wi’ me?’ can be said, especially in modern terms, to such principles. They are notv the sort of things you can play fast and loose with: politicians meddle with them at their peril.
I also pointed out that the official policy of the SNP, for which I have always voted, is that Scotland should retain full membership of the EU. One of the things I have greatly loved about the SNP is its consistency. Unlike other political parties, which continually played games with the electorate, with the SNP what was written on the can was what you got. I had therefore expected it to stick to its stated principle, especially when the people confirmed its support for it. Scotland is a European member and should rightly be a full member of the EU.
I intend to continue to vote for the SNP until independence is gained, because it is the only viable means of attaining that end. I will do so, however, with less enthusiasm and more reticence than previously, in view of basic principles having been ignored or bypassed.
Meanwhile, if I and other Scots like me do lose our European citizenship on the 29th of March, without the SNP taking more of a stand to preserve it, I for one – and many of these others, I suppose – will be immensely disappointed.
I don’t see any harm in reminding the SNP and its leadership of their obligations towards the Scottish people, and towards their own stated policies. I don’t think they will mind, and if it makes them think a little about such matters that will be all to the good. I have no doubt that they know very well that all politicians and all governments are accountable to the people they serve, and obliged to deliver on the promises they and their Parties make.
For all their faults, the SNP remain more trustworthy than any of their rivals, and by far. That does not mean that they should take anything for granted, nor that they should fail to address these faults. Wings is a pro-independence, not a pro-SNP site. Most of us who are on here in good faith, as I and you – Bob Mack and Thepnr – undoubtedly are, probably do vote SNP. Nevertheless, the independence movement is bigger than the SNP, and its numbers certainly much greater than the SNP’s membership.
It is a very big tent, the pro-independence movement, as anyone who paid attention to the AUOB march through Edinburgh on Saturday could not fail to notice. The very meaning of the AUOB banner says as much. There is room for all of us, and a multiplicity of opinions within that tent. The victory we are seeking is Scotland’s, not – and certainly not just – the SNP’s. It can’t become that unless it consists of far more than just the SNP. I am sure the SNP itself is well aware of that. It certainly should be. Scotland is bigger than the SNP, and independence is for all of us.
Anyway, the good thing is that we all are and remain under the one and same banner!
@Orri
Not settling for anything less than full EU membership is dummy spitting of the highest order.
If you’re talking of the Scottish governments position, that as a minimum Scotland remain in the Single Market and Customs Union then that position is surely better simply accepting what the UK will give us if they even get a deal.
The alternative of remaining as a “NEW” EU member simply couldn’t happen. The UK is the member state and the UK want’s to leave, they have never implied only bits want to leave and keep the rest in. We’re leaving with them and until Scotland is Independent they’ll make our choices for us.
“If the UK or a part including Scotland remain closely in sync with the EU then ascension becomes easier if we choose that path post independence. The risk is that it’ll be enough to quell the urge for independence for a while.”
How much more closely in sync with the EU could you possibly be than remaining in both the SM and CU which is the minimum that the Scottish government seek?
No we’re not going to get that either are we, no matter the deal for NI but the Scottish government weren’t being stupid when they drew their red lines. They knew NI and the border would likely be the biggest issue that the UK had to overcome. They laid a marker and until Independence the new marker becomes a demand for the same deal that NI gets.
What’s good for one “part” of the UK is the minimum we can expect unless we decide otherwise in another referendum on Independence and go for the Full Monty when it will be up to the people of Scotland to chose what future best suits us.
Yeah like you referring to people as ‘Nats’ isn’t an ‘insult’…ya devious condescending little fuckwit.
@CBB
Well, he did say “I know nats like you like an echo chamber”
which is very self-unaware of him on a, frankly, quite dispiriting humanities level.
@wull
You take a lot of words to say not so much because it it all based on some perceived momentum that should have been capitalised on.
What momentum in terms of support for Independence are you talking about?
The polling figures now are as high as they have ever been with just a gradual increase. The momentum you talk of is a fiction other than a couple of polls immediately after the 2016 EU referendum result from which they quickly settled back down to “normal” levels.
The real momentum is in the streets and has been all summer, let it build as it surely will continue to do just as surely it will as the Tories continue the disaster that is the Brexit negotiations.
Bob Mack The Tory government is fully committed to meeting international emissions reductions targets
Cameron B Brodie Thankyou for confirming my point, the more you insult the more you affirm your own insecurities
AlisonRollo Only the Free State (Northern Ireland did not but remained part of the UK) and only after a Civil War and World War 1
KI You support the Scottish NATIONAL Party so calling you ‘nats’ is simply calling you by your own party’s name
I appreciate there is no direct route into the EU, Scotland not being a signatory state at present, but that doesn’t give Westminster the right to ride roughshod over Scottish constitutional rights. Scotland has committed itself to EU programs and budgets that provide significant benefit to Scotland’s cultural, economic and environmental health. We are part of the club and it is in our sovereign interest to ensure Scotland does not Brexit in the manner that the Tories intend.
A tradition of cultural chauvinism does not trump international jurisprudence, no matter how many flags you wave or ‘patriotic’ festivals you might conjure up.
HYUFD
I’ll just let you get on with it then kid. You can dazzle us with your insight and guide us, Messiah like, to the Tory vision of what Brexit offers Scotland. You never did tell us what your knowledge base or occupation is Toryboy, are you a librarian by any chance? Something a bit more prosaic, perhaps?
Here’s a last interesting thought on “momentum” the last three polls that I can remember have ALL shown YES winning a second referendum if the result is a No deal Brexit.
Any deal at all we’re still drawing as a minimum.
Despite no one being perfect, we’re on the right track don’t let anyone say otherwise as the figures speak for themselves.
I am not a member of any party and you are a liar Simon, your intent in using the word ‘nat’ is to demean those who vote for a different party than you. This is not the first time you have utilised the term when you are getting ‘angry’. In fact it’s a clear sign that you are rattled.
‘I have no contempt for Scots the majority of whom voted for the Union my contempt is for anti English nats…’
23rd Aug 2018
‘Nobody is demanding the restoration of the Empire just chippy Nats denying the fact it was Scotland’s failed Empire building in central America in the Darien Scheme…’
24th Aug 2018
Please spare us your denials. You are a condescending patronising sleekit little stirrer. And as long as you label others in that smug self satisfied manner as ‘nats’ you show yourself for what you are: Incapable of debate. You are not here to debate, you are here to ‘look down’ on with ‘disdain’. This isn’t some insult Simon, it’s writ large in every ‘statement’ you post.
You are the epitome of a ‘diehard’, in your case a unionist, you have repeatedly boasted about it on here, unlike you, who has voted for the Tories your whole life, I haven’t voted for the SNP my whole life, in fact I hadn’t voted for any of them since ’97, well before 2014, when I decided to re engage with politics.
You assume so much about those you are speaking with on here without any attempt to be a human being about it. Because you are ‘othering’ us. That’s the mark of a bigot right there.
You are nasty minded Simon. Unkind and quite simply have no capacity to understand the choices people are making in a country that you were not raised in and have no right to lecture the people of that polity. You are ignorant and ill informed, possessed as you are and have stated with one sole purpose on here, to ‘nat’ bash.
You are not ‘pressing’ your case for the Union. You are wilfully indulging in xenophobic rhetoric and assume you are right because you ‘feel’ so strongly about your ‘perceived interpretations’ of what is happening in my country.
When you are utilising the term ‘nats’ you are being derogatory and it is disingenuous to feign innocence Simon. Liar is a more fitting synonym to describe what you are when you attempt to ‘rationalise’ the inference of your use of the word ‘nat’ on this forum.
Kindly desist from blowing smoke up our arses.
yesindyref2
Nailed it, a lack of self-awareness and an arrogance that Scots have all too much experience of. I bet he supports Bo Jo,
social cleansingausterity, and Brexit.link to janslaby.com
Neuroscience and Politics: Do Not Hold Your Breath
link to e-ir.info
The plastic brain: Neoliberalism and the neuronal self
link to pdfs.semanticscholar.org
Cameron, he works in ‘record keeping’, has a degree in ‘History’ and has 2 failed attempts at becoming a councillor in his Epping constituency. Hope that helps…he’s also stated he’s here to ‘press the unionist case ‘hard’.
Hope that helps. Oh and his name is Simon.
@K1
Missed your presence on Saturday. Next time though eh 🙂
HYUFD
Oi, Toryboy. Your politics are those of inequality and exclusion. You have no moral authority to lecture anyone, take your paternalism and ram it.
link to ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Targeting brains, producing responsibilities: The use of neuroscience within British social policy
link to sciencedirect.com
link to nature.com
K1
Nice burn. I do like it when you’re strict. 🙂
Librarian was an educated guess. English and history I would imagine, so it’s little wonder his world view might be a little Anglo-centered. I doubt his reading lacked a critical, feminist standpoint, post-colonial, methodology. 😉
Defo Alex 🙂
I doubt his reading included a critical…
@CBB
It’s quite sad, he suffers from an institutionalised cognitive dissonance, but has no interest in facing or resolving the conflicts he sees. He merely repeats them in a parrot donkey type fashion. It’s something that perhaps Indy supporters have an inate superiority for, as we ourselves have had to see through the mist and grasp the reality.
For some it’s been recent, an awakening, some of us have had many sleeps since our own awakening! For some it’s yet to happen, and for others it doesn’t actually matter as it’s not important to them, or they think it isn’t. For him though it is important, which makes it all the sadder.
yesindyref2
The FEAR of progress, a classical Tory malaise.
@CameronB Brodie
Could be fear of progress, but you’d have to wonder why he’s spending all his time on Scottish Independence, when his own party is completely split, and fighting over whether it should be a soft or hard Brexit. You’d think his attention would be nearer home.
Maybe he’d love for England to have a chance of escaping Brexit as we do, by getting Independence from the UK! So it’s jealousy is the driver, he has Scot envy.
I suppose the other alternative is he works for Torrance or Mundell!
The situation we are in all in, not knowing which way the brexit business will pan out, is complicated and interlevered.
There are many permutations of what could happen and the decision of when to call Indyref2 will have to wait until that becomes clear.
Jumping the gun only serves the unionists.
We are blessed with an SNP leadership and Government that is wise beyond its collective years.
They know what they are doing.
My comments about full EU membership are more directed at those who fault the SNP in at least trying to reach a middle ground.
The fact that said middle ground would place Scotland in an ideal position to join the EU should it gain independence is why Westminster is opposed.
The mention of Darien, on the other hand, does bring a parallel with Brexit to mind. It was a con job designed to ruin Scotland sufficiently that the union seemed the best way out. To that end any support from our alleged brethren in England was denied us. And to stop Scotland pulling back before the disaster was complete false reports were used. So I’d say the UK is presently engaged in its own equivalent currently.
wull says:
8 October, 2018 at 10:05 pm
To my mind….
Thank you Wull. To my mind too… every word you said.
@ yesindy, thanx for the Siol list, interesting how many of the names subsequently joined the Jacobite risings, both for & against. Argyll tried to reverse the Union at Westminster but was narrowly defeated. George III was so unsure of his throne that he asked for oaths of allegiance from Scots bigwigs a quarter of a century after Culloden.
Met the Siol once in the Commando Bar, Spean Bridge, they had a mailbag full of UJ’s for a wee bonfire at Willie Macrae’s cairn. It was bucketing that day & they fired into the Commando & tried burning them on the pub fire. The landlord “Slider?” had a fit & cleared the bar. Halcyon days!
England sinking as the band played `Rule Britannia`,
God Will Save Me
A terrible storm came into a town and local officials sent out an emergency warning that the riverbanks would soon overflow and flood the nearby homes. They ordered everyone in the town to evacuate immediately.
A faithful Christian man heard the warning and decided to stay, saying to himself, “I will trust God and if I am in danger, then God will send a divine miracle to save me.”
The neighbors came by his house and said to him, “We’re leaving and there is room for you in our car, please come with us!” But the man declined. “I have faith that God will save me.”
As the man stood on his porch watching the water rise up the steps, a man in a canoe paddled by and called to him, “Hurry and come into my canoe, the waters are rising quickly!” But the man again said, “No thanks, God will save me.”
The floodwaters rose higher pouring water into his living room and the man had to retreat to the second floor. A police motorboat came by and saw him at the window. “We will come up and rescue you!” they shouted. But the man refused, waving them off saying, “Use your time to save someone else! I have faith that God will save me!”
The flood waters rose higher and higher and the man had to climb up to his rooftop.
A helicopter spotted him and dropped a rope ladder. A rescue officer came down the ladder and pleaded with the man, “Grab my hand and I will pull you up!” But the man STILL refused, folding his arms tightly to his body. “No thank you! God will save me!”
Shortly after, the house broke up and the floodwaters swept the man away and he drowned.
When in Heaven, the man stood before God and asked, “I put all of my faith in You. Why didn’t You come and save me?”
And God said, “Son, I sent you a warning. I sent you a car. I sent you a canoe. I sent you a motorboat. I sent you a helicopter. What more were you looking for?”
true story.
We are still waiting for a decision on Brexit, are we leaving or are we staying (in some format). Both of these decisions will affect an independence referendum. We leave “hard Brexit” would be an advantage for the independence movement. We leave “soft Brexit” (which ever format), we would see diminishing returns and a possible reduction in independence support. Until we know what brexit is or when then a delay in the referendum is warranted.
By calling a referendum now allows Westminster to change brexit terms to destabilise an independence referendum and gain advantage for no. Westminster is very capable to manipulate situations to there advantage. Delaying a decision on brexit could be one of these situations and Nicola Sturgoen is very aware of that. We are in a long chess game and the SNP have just made a move (Referendum 2021) May cant hold back on brexit until then, May has to make a decision, advantage Nicola.
Scot F,
The last line was the best.
‘True story’, eh?
Ever considered a career at the beeb?
@Fred
It’s an interesting website, and with Siol nan Gaidheal having been talked about (as anti-English for one thing) in this forum before, it’s good to look and see what they are about in their own words. Also from their History of our Movement in the early 90s:
“The demise of Siol nan Gaidheal led to the dispersal of its membership. Some rejoined the Scottish National Party, but most drifted away from the Nationalist scene altogether. The frustration felt by some radical members led them to go and form other organisations such as Scottish Watch and Settler Watch, both dedicated to campaigning against the “Englishing of Scotland”.”
I think we signs of the latter at times in Wings. Some of it “reasonable”, and some going over the top! It’s a very difficult and uncomfortable balance – look at the hierarchy of some of the quangos.
But all under banner does seem to me, to fairly and maybe neccessarily include them, I was a bit anti before.
@Scot Finlayson
Yes, very appropriate. You can take a horse to water but you can’t make it think for itself.
Scot Finlayso
9 October, 2018 at 9:21 am
A very similar story was told in one of the episodes of The West Wing when the President was deciding whether to pardon a man on death row.
Just as an aside, Australia has announced the reintroduction of coal fired power stations. That will help the climate no end. Perhaps the Tories can stop them ? Doubt it.
Better start digging out rubber rings.i
@ Yesindy, this must have been on an anniversary of Willie’s murder & maybe 25 years ago? we were up fishing & washed-oot also. After Slider (an ex-polis) had evicted the last of the Siol & went back to his dinner, we asked Hughie the barman what that was all about? he told us about the Siol & their flegs & how they coudnae get the matches tae light, so apart from the bemused locals who we knew, we asked who the four strangers at the end of the bar were. He said that they were the Special Branch & had been asking who we were! 🙂
HYUFD says:
8 October, 2018 at 8:58 pm
“Scott Finlayson Bangladesh, the Netherlands, New Orleans, Venice etc are all likely to disappear because of rising sea levels before England does, even if you will only be cheering on the latter!”
You mean the millions sorry billions in tax payers hard earned coin spent on flood prevention measures in Ingerlund was a waste of coin regardless of which Climate Changing morons ruled in London or Washington.
Nothing new there MY FUD.
Thepnr Not quite true Panelbase had No to independence still ahead 52% to 48% on Sunday even if No Deal
Cameron B Brodie Inequality has fallen since 2008
link to bbc.co.uk
prj On current Holyrood polls the SNP and Greens will lose their majority at Holyrood in 2021 and the Tories, Scottish Labour and the LDs will have more seats combined than they do
The later Survation poll had Indy dead level on Brexit at 50% to 50%, and AHEAD on a hard Brexit at 52% YES to 48% NO. How d’ya like them onions?
As for the Scottish parliament the Survation telephone poll gives SNP 65 seats, Green 1, so if the SNP have the PO then it’s a dead heat which means the PO votes with the Government, and if it’s not SNP (Conservatives are due to be PO), then it’s, wait for it, wait for it
AN OVERALL SNP MAJORITY
As usual you’re not talking out of your mouth.
I will repeat a well known Scottish phrase here…
Oh, yi bliddy think so?
Retreat to your Anglotory bubble.
We shouldn’t be so squeamish about propping up a minority Conservative government in return for what we want.
That’s exactly how the Irish gained their independence.
Andrew Innes.
That is not acceptable.
@Andrew Innes / @Ghillie
I agree with both of you, pick the bones out of that one!
Andrew Inner The Irish gained their independence after a War of Independence as the British were exhausted after World War One. Charles Parnell did not gain independence or even Home Rule in the late 19th century despite leading the largest party from Ireland
Yesindyref2 So one poll has Yes ahead one poll has No ahead even with the hardest of Brexit ie No Deal. That is not a certain Yes vote even if No Deal.
Yesindyref2 Panelbase has the SNP and Greens on only 61 seats combined, well short of a majority.
link to mobile.twitter.com
Survation was an SNP commissioned poll and even then could not produce a clear SNP and Greens majority
HYUFD = just another British Nationalist posting a lot of crap.
I repeat, SNP 65 seats, Green 1. Your ignorance of Scotland is sublime. Or subliminal, not sure which.
I repeat SNP + Greens on only 61 seats in the non SNP commissioned Panelbase poll.
Plus even in the Survation poll Yes is only on 43% including Don’t Knows even in the event of No Deal, the main movement is from No to Don’t Know, not from No to Yes
link to mobile.twitter.com
Mmmm, yes, that link shows YES and NO on a dead heat with Brexit, and YES 52% NO 48% in the event of no deal Brexit. Eaxactly as we siad and you denied. Ooops you pooped.
“Survation poll on Independence;
Yes – 41% (46%)
No – 49% (54%)
DK – 10%
In event of Brexit;
Yes – 42% (50%)
No – 42% (50%)
DK – 17%
In event of No Deal Brexit;
Yes – 43% (52%)
No – 39% (48%)
DK – 18”
For the Holyrood VI check out this later poll and follow the thread to the end. By the way, PO doesn’t stand for Post Office!
It has Yes on a range of 41% to 43% ie just a 2% move from the headline question to a No Deal Brexit scenario question. As I said ALL the move is from No to Don’t Know NOT No to Yes, No moves from 49% to 39% and Don’t Know up from 10% to 18% with No Deal. So still all to play for even then.
As I also pointed out Panelbase on Sunday had No still ahead even with No Deal 52% to 48%
I see you finally made it out of the loop, probably desperately using XYZZY to get yourself out of that maze of twisty little passages, all alike. Were you really in the loop for 3 hours solid?
Anyways, feast your eyes on this (make sure it’s the table, not line or bar):
link to whatscotlandthinks.org
The lowest before was 40% NO, this Survation poll is, as far as I am aware, the absolute first ever that has put NO below 40%, the territory Darling thought was a certainty for NO when YES were below 40%. And NO is dropping while don’t know rises and moves to YES.
Kiss the Precious Union bye-bye.
Oh by the way HYFUD, thanks for pointing out that 39% NO, you’re a real star 🙂
I don’t think support for the Union has ever been that low before, not this century anyway.
Yesindyref2 In the circumstances of a No Deal, crash out Brexit which your precious SNP promised would guarantee a Yes vote. Yet Yes cannot even match the 45% it got in 2014 with Survation even with No Deal Brexit when you include Don’t Knows.
Plus of course even UK wide polls show a comfortable majority of British and even English voters would prefer to Remain in the EU in an EUref2 than accept No Deal so No Deal for the UK is not likely to last anyway. Indeed a comfortable majority in the Commons and Lords would vote for EFTA or EUref2 over No Deal
Meanwhile the latest Panelbase headline numbers have No to independence ahead 52% to 41%
link to mobile.twitter.com
HYUFD
Not got any mates, Toryboy?
I am certainly not looking for Nat mates
HYUFD
I’m not a “nat” you chauvinistic prat, I’m a normalist. I’m fighting to secure my civil liberties and human rights, so you can fuck right off, Toryboy. Why not look to your own backyard, instead of poking your nose in where it is neither wanted nor needed. You’re not registered to vote in Scotland, so your opinion is irrelevant.
You’re the nationalist here and I’m the patriot. Nationalists are bad, mk.
HYUFD = British Nationalist. Talks a lot of crap. Obviously brain damaged in his childhood. HYUFD needs help but he won’t get it on Wings. He should try his local hospital.
@HYUFD
Not at all, no need to thank me, it’s me thanking you for pointing out that less than 2/5ths of Scotland gives a damn about the Union.
I remember when I was looking at support hovering around the 50% for the union, and even a couple of dips under 50%.
Now it’s 39% !!!!!!!
And it’s you pointed that out.
Cubby
I’m quite badly brain damaged myself, want to make something of it? 🙂
Cameron B Brodie The UK is hardly Nazi Germany, it has far more civil liberties and human rights than most nations in the world. As long as my passport says ‘Citizen of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland’ then I still have an interest in the future of the Union
Yesindyref2 On the headline figure it is 49% No 41% Yes even with Don’t Knows. Panelbase has it 52% Leave 48% Remain even if No Deal Brexit, if that can be sold as ‘global Britain’ rather than ‘Little England’ Scotland might even vote against independence with No EU Deal
Panelbase had it 52% No to independence in Scotland 48% Yes on Sunday even if No Deal Brexit. If that could be sold as ‘Global Britain’ rather than ‘Little England’ Scotland might still vote against independence even if No Deal and alignment with the EU
Or, as you rightly pointed out, support for the Union down to less than 40% for the first time this century, according to Survation.
It won’t be long now.
The last global Britain was at the end of a bayonet and concentration camps.
@Cubby
An inconvenient fact that British Nationalists prefer not to dwell on.
HYUFD
Kindly fuck off and have a pleasant day elsewhere, Toryboy.
link to un.org
Yesindyref On the same poll Yes only on 43% even with No Deal Brexit, ie less than the 45% it got in 2014 once Don’t Knows are included.
In any case from the news today it seems May will be keeping the UK in the Customs Union anyway until a technical solution is found to the Irish border
Cameron B Brodie And Scots decided by 55% to 45% they were quite happy with full sovereignty within the UK through the Scottish Parliament and Westminster thankyou very much
NO was less than 40%, as you can see from the poll itself:
Linky Loopy
On the headline poll figure No was on 49%, No was only on 39% in the event of No Deal Brexit but even then almost all the movement was from No to Don’t Know rather than from No to Yes
Thepnr@1.08
They certainly do not. Unlike other countriies like Germany/Japan who recognised, accepted the truth of their imperial past and the associated atrocities and vowed to move on to create better countries the British Nationalists glory in this past.
NOW you’re getting it, and on the established ration of 2/3rd of don’t knows moving to YES and just 1/3rd going to NO, that makes 55% YES to 45% NO in the event of a hard Brexit. That’s at least by the way, I’d put the YES vote higher. Brexit is mince.
Your Union is a stuffed goose, ready for Christmas.
Pass the sauce.
Cubby In theory, though Germany certainly told Greece who was boss when it imposed massive austerity and tax rises on the Greeks to stay in the Eurozone
Yesindyref2 Most don’t knows in final polls voted No in indyref2014, so on that basis No would win even in the event of a No Deal Brexit. Plus of course Panelbase has No ahead 52% to 48% excluding Don’t Knows in its latest poll even if No Deal Brexit
Try reading this:
link to wingsoverscotland.com
As I said in 2014 a majority of Don’t Knows in the final polls went for No not for Yes
If you want a comfort blanket, then who am I to take it away from you? It matches the blinkers.
No comfort blanket needed. Indeed tonight it looks like May will get her Deal with the EU to get a transition period and withdrawal agreement through, 30 Labour MPs are set to back it so No Deal will be avoided anyway
link to independent.co.uk
You still have this astonishing mindset, same as most of the Tories, that it only takes one side to have an agreement, and that everyone will jump up and down with glee when the UK decides its terms of reference.
Ho hum.