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Sprinting for the line

Posted on July 11, 2014 by

The Daily Record has a new poll from Survation today, with the same razor’s-edge findings as their last one. With don’t-knows excluded, the vote is poised at 47 Yes 53 No, which is statistically a dead heat (as polls of this size have a 3% margin of error).

photofinish

The paper oddly chooses to lead not on the headline figure but on a finding which shows one in five Scots have had an argument with a friend or family member over independence, which seems a remarkably low figure to us in the circumstances. But the thing that made us smile was the analysis of the poll by Scotland’s Only Living Psephologist, the esteemed Professor John Curtice.

“This is now the 66th or 67th poll to show the No side ahead. If there is to be at least some prospect of the Yes side winning, I’d want a poll giving me 50 per cent or above in the next four weeks, not in the last four weeks.”

That’s quite an odd thing to say. Four weeks from now would still be six weeks away from the referendum, and we know from recent experience that an awful lot can change in the last six weeks – or indeed the last two, come to that.

2011polls

But the comment also coincided with our noticing a Scotsman article from 2005 sent to us by an alert reader. It has an eerily familiar ring.

The SNP has insisted that it is on course to win the 2007 Holyrood election – despite its poor showing in Thursday’s parliamentary by-elections.

Analysts and their political opponents reacted with scepticism to the claims.

Mr Salmond claimed that the swing of 10.2 per cent from Labour to the SNP […] would be enough for the Nationalists to secure the 20 Holyrood seats he has set as the party’s target.

However, his view was challenged by Alistair Darling, Labour’s Scottish Secretary, who questioned Mr Salmond’s continued leadership of his party, and by Prof John Curtice, one of Scotland’s leading experts on elections.

The Nationalists are on a downward slide under Salmond’s leadership,’ Mr Darling told Labour’s victory Press conference.

Asked if he was telling Mr Salmond to consider quitting as SNP leader, Mr Darling said:

‘It’s not for me to decide who is the leader of the Scottish Nationalists.

But it must occur to their members at some stage that all this bluster about winning 20 first-past-the-post seats – and at the last general election, when he tried to claim it was a victory when their vote went down again – it must occur to them one day that perhaps he’s not going to deliver.’

Mr Salmond not only had to endure attacks from his political opponents, but analysis by Prof Curtice flatly contradicts his claims that the results show the SNP is on course for power at Holyrood. “

You don’t give the gold medal in the 100m to the runner who’s leading after 70m, or the one who posts the best times in training. It’s the one who goes through the tape in front on the day who wins, and as a rule it’s best to have your money on the one who’s finishing stronger, not the one who’s been running out of puff since halfway.

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  1. 11 07 14 11:27

    Sprinting for the line | Scottish Independence News
    Ignored

145 to “Sprinting for the line”

  1. wingman 2020
    Ignored
    says:

    I rolled on the floor laughing at this one.

    Mr Darling he is the original indefatigable optimist and supreme champion of his own desires even in the face of years of evidence that he is wrong.

    He’d have been the ideal striker on the last moments of the Brazil Germany game… he’d still be thinking and saying he was going to win.

    The man’s a flipping nutter.

  2. a2
    Ignored
    says:

    “which is statistically a dead heat (as polls of this size have a 3% margin of error)”

    Unfortunately , I’m not convinced by this part. If it was down to margin of error, it could go up or down as easily as stay in the same place. The margin of error always seems to be in one direction which isn’t credible.

    However I don’t get What professor Curtice is saying either, it’s a bit weird to suggest that a poll 6 weeks away is going to be more accurate than the week before.

  3. muttley79
    Ignored
    says:

    ‘The Nationalists are on a downward slide under Salmond’s leadership,’ Mr Darling told Labour’s victory Press conference.

  4. Calgacus MacAndrews
    Ignored
    says:

    Just get any of the undecided to watch this, and we are home and dry on 18th September: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_NC3RoScH1M&feature=youtu.be

  5. kendomacaroonbar
    Ignored
    says:

    Excellent final para.

  6. macart763m
    Ignored
    says:

    All they have to do is get their vote out of bed on the 18th. Personally I’ll be there ten minutes before the door opens.

  7. Helena Brown
    Ignored
    says:

    I would like to hear Scottish Skier’s take on this. Mine is that the polls are being manipulated to show YES at the rear.
    I think that this continual weighting and the asking the same people continually will obviously give the same answer. they obviously do not want to show YES winning.

  8. Illy
    Ignored
    says:

    I’m not sure if this has been asked, but has anyone compared “certainty to vote” against yes/no/undecided?

  9. heedtracker
    Ignored
    says:

    Truly awful quote from Prof Curtice, maybe too much senior common room libation with this bizzzare BetterTogether academic? https://mobile.twitter.com/ProfTomkins

    Here in Aberdeen, another day of spectacular you will vote no thanks loyal proud Scot buts puffing from Press and journal for Flipper Darling, and Alistair says there’s no oil left so vote no with a bizarre half page pic of Flipper looking upwards like a sad but patient choir boy.

  10. kininvie
    Ignored
    says:

    I think that excluding the don’t knows gives an entirely false impression of what is going to happen. Our canvassing in the Livingston area is giving small but consistent Yes majorities over No, but the Don’t Knows are still averaging around 20%. No one knows what these voters are going to do on the day, and to hazard guesses about how their vote will break is rash. Yet they have the power to win or lose this…

    This is the chief difference between the referendum and an ordinary election, where the ‘Don’t Knows’ will usually be very small percentage. Whether or not we’ll see a drop in the Don’t knows’ as opinions firm up in the last couple of weeks will be interesting. Somehow I doubt it.

    What we are definitely seeing is a drop in the numbers of people who tell us they haven’t yet thought about it. The problem is more that when they do think about it they become increasingly confused by the deluge of contradictory information they find.

  11. HawGaw
    Ignored
    says:

    It’s a good moral tale about polls in general and the genuine effect they have on perceptions of progress. Personally, I’d like the polls to stay where they are. They provide a cushion for complacency to ‘No’ and an impetus to strive for ‘Yes’.

  12. Illy
    Ignored
    says:

    Removing the “don’t know’s” from the stats is roughly equivilent to assuming a 50/50 split on them, except that it makes the headline gap larger.

    It seems a perfectly reasonable way to display the stats to me.

    (And we do have some incling of how the don’t know’s will vote, let me go find it…)

  13. wee162
    Ignored
    says:

    @Helena Brown
    11:32
    There may be an element of finger on the scales going on re polling (it does happen with US polling companies, and frankly they’ve got more sophisticated and better funded polling than we do). But what is likely to happen is that they will slowly change whatever they’re doing (if that’s the case) to get the closest result as possible on the day. No-one judges pollsters on how they’ve done during the campaign, they judge them on how close they get to the result with their last polls.

    For what it’s worth I might be giving Curtice too much credit, but I slightly agree with him re looking for something that puts Yes ahead soon. Polling is not just about a snapshot, it creates the narrative in campaigns as well. If one or two polls show Yes ahead then that could cause the entire No campaign to implode. It will also start to put doubts into the minds of No voters imo.

    I personally think a lot of people will be thinking tt’s fine to vote No if that’s going to be the result, but do you really want to have been on the other side of the argument when your country has declared independence? I’m not meaning this in a nasty way re persecution for voting No, but in a much more self absorbed existential way.

    Also, just to point out, the very latest opinion polling prior to both devolution votes in 79 and 97 both underestimated the Yes vote. Some people walk into the ballot booth and can’t bring themselves to vote against Scotland being itself even if that’s what they mean to do.

  14. galamcennalath
    Ignored
    says:

    DKs seem to convert about two thirds Yes and one third No. So that makes it neck and neck.

    Within the margin of error it could be neck and neck.

    Introduce who is polled, how they are polled, how the data is weighted … And I suggest that doesn’t make them any more accurate in this situation.

    Then there’s that consistent last minute SNP swing. Will that be repeated as a last minute Yes swing?

    Looking good, but not looking certain, yet!

  15. Marker Post
    Ignored
    says:

    This latest poll has fair cheered me up, I was getting depressed at all these other polls especially in a week which has seen the UK government rush through emergency legislation to spy on its citizens, lie about pensions (again), “lose” documents on an alleged paedophile ring in the House of Commons, admit to destroying documents on rendition flights in Diego Garcia. I could go on.

    How can anyone even thinking of voting No?

  16. bookie from hell
    Ignored
    says:

    David s Moon

    politics lecturer at@PoLIS_Bath

    tweet

    ‘Myths surrounding Scottish politics include idea that Scot nationalism is civic not ethnic – desire for a “good” nationalism’ #BathNation

  17. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    When it comes to stats, I’m with Ebbe Skovdahl.

  18. Colin
    Ignored
    says:

    I still firmly believe that on the 18th September in the polling station a percentage of confirmed no voters will say to themselves “I can’t let Scotland be sold out again” and vote Yes.

  19. heedtracker
    Ignored
    says:

    Guradian/Severin Carrell in nice summer frock and wig, focus entirely on a new horror movie turning Scots into monsters because it’s not like anything happened this week is it Libby\Severin.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/scottish-independence-blog/2014/jul/11/scottish-independence-referendum-week-in-review-from-the-team-scotland-kit-to-tartan-terror#start-of-comments

  20. Illy
    Ignored
    says:

    thanks galamcennalath, I was sure wings had a post about don’t knows and which way they thought they would vote, from one of the wings polls.

    I can’t find it though.

  21. Invisible Man
    Ignored
    says:

    It is not statistically a tie. the 53-47 figure is the same rounded figures as the previous Survation poll and the Yes v No is a subsample that excludes Don’t Knows. The margin of error applies to the data including Don’t Knows, which asserts a gap of 5%, which is greater than the margin of error.

  22. Vince Diaz
    Ignored
    says:

    I’m not so sure the Don’t Knows are that ignorant of their own intentions.

    Think about it, how often have we all answer I dunno, when we perfecly knew, yet did not wish to tell?

  23. Cod
    Ignored
    says:

    The undecideds have always been the ones who were going to decide this vote, right from the start. Sure, a few No voters were always likely to switch to Yes, and a very small amount of Yes voters might switch to No, but the undecideds have made up almost a fifth of voters since the beginning.

    Let’s hope they have been actually checking sources rather than simply listening to / reading the drivel coming from the BT lot and their media backers. Of course, a lot of those undecideds might not even bother voting at all.

  24. JLT
    Ignored
    says:

    For those who have doubt, or are marginally worried about what may happen on the day itself, I have a belief that psychologically, many people who are soft ‘No’s or ‘Don’t Know’s will vote ‘Yes’ on the day. The reason being, is the very question itself.

    Should Scotland be an independent country?

    If they ponder for a few moments before the put pen(cil) to paper, then the doubt has begun! The keyword is ‘Scotland’ followed by ‘country’. That is going to resonate with many Scots on the day. Simply to vote ‘No’ will almost psychologically tell them that to do so, would be confirming that Scotland is not a ‘true’ country. And to do that is going to have them quietly question the entity that is the Union itself. The longer they ponder as they look at the question, the more they are likely to vote ‘Yes’. This doubt will have them question as to who they are, where they come from, and what it is that makes them who they really are. For most, they will realise straightaway that the answers are Scottish and Scotland. And then it becomes hard to suddenly vote ‘No’.

    For ‘Yes’sers’ …the answer is as clear as sunny blue sky, but what faces the soft ‘No’s and Don’t Knows will be much harder. I would not be surprised that more than half of them on the day, will vote with their hearts after a few moments of deep pondering and say ‘Yes’ …simply because …it is Scotland.

  25. Ian Cameron
    Ignored
    says:

    Although the headline figures are the same as last month (47/53), when taken to one decimal point the No lead has decreased by one point (down from 6.8 to 5.8).
    June 46.6/53.4
    July 47.1/52.9
    Slow and steady wins the race.

  26. Cath
    Ignored
    says:

    “as a rule it’s best to have your money on the one who’s finishing stronger, not the one who’s been running out of puff since halfway.”

    The impression I have is that while the NO side has been going full pelt for 2 years, and has every possible advantage in terms of media, all political parties, Westminster etc, the YES side is currently still at jogging pace.

    They’ve always known they can’t win the media war and instead seem to have mostly used the media and no side against itself – the benefit of having a hostile but also fairly ignorant media. They’ve given NO vast amounts of rope which, when it comes down to it, they’ll end up tying themselves in knots with.

    “I would like to hear Scottish Skier’s take on this. Mine is that the polls are being manipulated to show YES at the rear.”

    Be good to hear SS on it too, but I’d disagree with that. From talking to people, the polls aren’t particularly surprising to me – there are loads of no and undecided. What I do feel from speaking to people and on doorsteps is the polls really don’t tell the whole story.

    Those who are, or who move to, yes are generally fairly firm. They’ve been yes or moved to yes despite continued media bombardment with negativity, fears and smear. They’re very unlikely to be shiftable back. There are also a core of firm die-hard no voters, but these are not the majority of no voters by any means. Most are either “default no” in that they haven’t engaged and are just going with the status quo, or they’re heart yes / head no voters who believe the scaremongering and “too wee, too poor” myths, or are lifelong Labour voters just going along with the party line.

    What’s surprising is how easy it can be to shift many of those “default no” voters simply by giving them a bit of information, or allowing them to talk through their concerns.

    And that’s where, I suspect, all that rope will come in. People who aren’t that engaged, and have believed “they won’t let us use the pound…we’ll be kicked out the EU” etc will, at some point, run across a Better Together spokesman having to bluster that, “of course no one ever said you could be prevented using the pound…of course no one said you’d be out the EU…of course no one’s saying you can’t” etc. And all they’ll see is, “they’ve been lying to us”.

  27. heedtracker
    Ignored
    says:

    Polls are undoubtedly being used by BetterTogetherBBC, press etc to pressurise people to vote no, Why does the UK gov refuse to publish the results of their very own polling in Scotand at over 300 grand too?

    http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-news/9427-snp-ups-pressure-on-uk-government-to-publish-secret-poll

    Polling in Scotland is one more fraud perpetrated by fraudsters, or show us the poll dear Westminster?

  28. macart763m
    Ignored
    says:

    Oh the results of that poll are, I think, even better than they look at first glance. Alan Bisset makes a great point in Derek Bateman’s latest interview here:

    http://derekbateman.co.uk/2014/07/10/vote-katie-morag/

    There’s an army of silent voters out there, people forgotten, by polling companies and unionist politicians alike. People who have a serious axe to grind against the state. The very people the state and sections of the media have criminalised for the past three years and have mistreated for decades. THAT is who they are terrified of, because on the day it won’t be the chattering classes that decide their careers.

  29. galamcennalath
    Ignored
    says:

    @JLT

    You make an excellent point. The question invites a positive response on all sorts of levels, even for those who have lingering doubts. I hope the effect is significant!

  30. BuckieBraes
    Ignored
    says:

    To exhume a well-worn old cliché, there is only one poll that counts.

    A lot of folk may be telling pollsters they are intending to vote No, but in reality they haven’t even begun to think about it.

    What JLT is saying above is what I am pinning my hopes on. I’ll be very surprised if we see a published poll showing a Yes lead; but the way people feel in the last 48 hours, and on the day itself, will be crucial. Yes advocates can have an enormous amount of influence in that short time; possibly more than we have had up to now, as a lot of swithering voters will be anxious to have their minds made up for them!

    I find that drawing attention to Jim Sillars’ argument about having Scotland’s sovereignty in our hands for 15 hours is very effective too.

  31. kendomacaroonbar
    Ignored
    says:

    I suspect the forthcoming Salmond/Darling debate will sway a few DK’s

  32. Ellie
    Ignored
    says:

    If you can bare it you should check out the Economist articles on Scottish Independence this week (if you can get past the disgraceful front cover that is).

    The tone of the articles are interesting to say the least, they at least have decided to admit that Scotland would be a perfectly successful independent nation; albeit with a healthy dose of sneering and falsehoods thrown in and curiously a rather hurt tone to them as well, as if they genuinely don’t get why Scotland would want to dissolve the United Kingdom, it really is the oddest of things, at the same time offensive and yet quite pathetically confused as well.

    Anyway how it relates to the above is almost an aside in one of the articles, woefully titled How Did It Come to This? (honestly if this is their attitude I’m fully expecting the first post yes issue to come with a free black armband for every reader) where they admit what everyone knows full well, the polls are not reflecting the extent of the Yes vote because the turnout is predicted to be so high. Or to put it another way, a lot of the yes voters are going to come from groups who would not and have not engaged in the recent electoral process, or with the pollsters.

  33. heedtracker
    Ignored
    says:

    One more bloater from Westminster opens his mouth and lies at Scotland https://archive.today/9x15o
    “He told members of the Scottish Parliament’s Economy Committee: “You know the rules as well as I do on publication of polling information, if you publish any of it you publish all of it. We’ve published none of it, we will continue to do so. That was work that was done to inform Government policy.’’

    WoS repliy

    The problem is, we’ve commissioned several opinion polls and we DO know the rules, and they’re not what Mr Carmichael claims they are.

  34. Cath
    Ignored
    says:

    I have a belief that psychologically, many people who are soft ‘No’s or ‘Don’t Know’s will vote ‘Yes’ on the day. The reason being, is the very question itself.

    Should Scotland be an independent country?

    Yes, that’s another rare but interesting thing that sometimes happens out canvassing. You only ask 2 questions – where are you on the scale 1-10 and the referendum question.

    It does happen that people will say, “I’m a 2 – no way, daft idea, hate that Alex Salmond”, then when you flip over and ask, “Should Scotland be an independent country?” they ponder for a moment and say, “Aye, aye it probably should.”

    How those kind of voters will vote on the day (and whether they’ll vote) will be key.

    However, the result is practically impossible to call because, as well as those potential last minute switchers from no/DK to Yes in the polling station, and the tipping point affect Yes leading in the polls might have, there is also a constituency who want more devolution but not independence. Many of them may be hoping for a result in which Yes DOESN’T actually win (they may be scared of that) but also not want it to lose heavily and result in the status quo or less. How will they jump on the day if they choose to vote tactically? And might there be a “fear factor” in the polling station that affects people who intended to vote yes that might cancel out those no voters who can’t bring themselves to vote no?

  35. Helena Brown
    Ignored
    says:

    Thank you wee162, a decent explanation.

  36. WantonWampum.
    Ignored
    says:

    And Darling is being allowed several nationwide tv debates versus Salmond who owns a MANDATE not availed to Darling.

    Darling is representing his party interests – AND – the interests of the tories – and the interests of the LibDems who currently hold all the powers that Darling wants for Mibbeland.

    Another “RIGGED” debate when Darling will be allowed to ignore the tory funders of BT NO(thanks)and all the ConDem policies that have SAVED the Economy that Darling left in tatters only 4 years ago.???

    What the hell is Salmond thinking when he repeatedly supplies Oxygen to BT and it`s burst bubble?

    It would appear that Salmond is helping to “Rig” the referendum for Darling.

    Darling is already being BRIBED by the tories and is being tentatively Bribed by Mibbeland with a Ministerial post – AFTER the IndyRef and on the spurious prospect that Mibbeland will ever win the 2015 Westminster Election?

    “The Sorcerer`s Apprentices” (Balls and Mibbeland) rewarding their darling teacher who screwed everything he touched only 4 years ago.

    Independence, solely from a SLAB perspective, is not the reason for this absurd debate.

    Darling will be allowed to duck reality as he spouts his New Labour spiel.

    What does Salmond gain from debating Darling who will never be allowed to hold any reins of any power.

    A tentative offer to Darling of a Ministerial Post from Balls and Mibbeland – is as valuable as a “PLEDGE” from Clegg.

    Salmond is awarding Darling a chance to win, and were the shoes on Darling`s feet, this absurd debate would never be allowed.

    Someone, anyone, please explain why this idiotic debate will enhance the “YES” cause???

  37. Roll_On_2014
    Ignored
    says:

    OT

    Stu I see you indicated on your twitter account that your ‘Wee Blue Book’ will, hopefully, be ready for layout and printing this weekend.

    Any further update on its release date?

  38. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    @kendomacaroonbar

    I think last nights manic Unionist ranting on the telly in a weird accent was enough to help the Yes vote!

    Salmond versus Darling reminds me of a solid, quiet, confident Germany fancing a loud and brash Brazil. We all know how that turned out.

  39. cal
    Ignored
    says:

    I am out canvassing every week talking to real people in real houses on real streets and have been doing so for months. I can assure you this poll is nonsense. Different areas of the country will have different proportions of Yes to No but the ratio of decideds to undecideds is, I think, more likely to be constant. I’m finding consistantly that don’t knows are about 30%. This high number makes perfect sense to me. It’s a big, difficult question we’re asking people. What I am finding is that people WANT you to convince them to vote Yes and this is becoming more common. Most DKs are tending to Yes and not the other way round. 13% undecided in this poll is laughable. NO conclusions can be drawn from it. Believing polls is a bit like believing what you see, hear and read in the media. You need to open your eyes and ears and pick up what’s happening around you. Or, better still, get out and talk to people on their doorsteps. I had never done it before and I can honestly say it has been a revelation to me. You should try it!

  40. Alba4Eva
    Ignored
    says:

    I remember as far back as a couple of years ago, that the SNP and YES sides were stressing that this was a marathon, not a sprint.

    That is still very much looking the case.

  41. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    @WantonWampum.

    I hear you but keeping with my football comparisons, at some point long into a 0-0 game, you have to decide when to bring on your star striker to win the game for you, even if you know the other side are looking to hack him down.

  42. heedtracker
    Ignored
    says:

    Someone, anyone, please explain why this idiotic debate will enhance the “YES” cause???

    It gives our FM the opportunity to show viewers he’s maybe not the monster BBC/ press etc try make him out to be all the time is one answer. This is about democracy and the future of democracy and choosing to escape from our BBC media dictatorship we’re currently entrenched in. The only other country in the west that has our media domination and brainwahing is the USA, although they’re not forced to pay by law to be brainwashed.

  43. Calgacus MacAndrews
    Ignored
    says:

    @macart763m says:
    All they have to do is get their vote out of bed on the 18th. Personally I’ll be there ten minutes before the door opens.

    Be there half and hour before the door opens.
    Be there in a car or van in that nearest-parking-space-to-the-polling-station.
    The car or van being suitably YES-decorated, and being parked there all day.
    The car with the open windows and the CD-player on a loop playing the CD you made of : https://soundcloud.com/calgacus-macandrews/gily-make-alba-shine

    Just sayin’

    🙂

  44. kendomacaroonbar
    Ignored
    says:

    @Desimond

    I am really looking forward to A Darling getting his come uppance, and it’s a 2 hour televised gig too.

    Salmond is going to chew him up and spit him out in twizzle shaped bites.

  45. Lesley-Anne
    Ignored
    says:

    I find the comments from our pet Psephologist Professor John Curtice a wee bit strange given that I’m sure I read a piece by him, quite some time ago now, where he was questioning the polling results of all these polls.

    If my solitary brain cell recollects correctly I believe he was talking along the lines that all the referendum polls were flawed. I understood him to be saying that in the all the jiggery pokery that is done to the initial poll figures to get the national figure all the polling companies are using how people voted in the 2011 elections. Now in my view, and no doubt that of a lot of readers here, this is a major flaw because as we all know there are loads of people who voted Labour, LibDem and Tory in 2011 but are voting for independence. This is one reason I believe that YES are already ahead in the polls. The problem for the polling companies is that they have no similar referendum figures to work from so they are just shooting in the dark, in my view, when it comes to calculating the nationwide figures.

    In any event, most pollsters apart from Ipsos MORI attempt to overcome any risk that their samples are biased by adjusting their data so that the number of people they interview who say they voted Labour, SNP or whatever at the last Scottish Parliament election in 2011 reflects the actual outcome on that occasion.

    http://tinyurl.com/ngzulnp

  46. Cath
    Ignored
    says:

    What I am finding is that people WANT you to convince them to vote Yes and this is becoming more common.

    I’m finding that too, especially with my own circle of friends. People who were solid, certain no voters a couple of years ago are now not only open to debate, but giving the impression that they want to vote yes and are just looking to be convinced.

    Also, despite what the media say about the debate, the surprising thing is how quiet and non-pushy most yes people are. Twibbons just appear from people who’ve said and shared nothing. It’s a silent wee revolution going on. People are pondering, reading, thinking and seeing their friends and family shifting. So even many who are still no or unconvinced are beginning to ask, “Why is/are he/she/they Yes…why are so many yes” and also, I suspect, noting the difference between their friends/family and the portrayal of yes voters, “cybernats” and the debate in the media.

  47. Michael McCabe
    Ignored
    says:

    I Think Yes are ahead and have been for a while. The MSM or the BBC are never going to admit that as the No Vote would Implode. Johann Lamont just been on the Daily Politics Show. Same old Pooling and Sharing Rubbish. Blair Jenkins on just now. Alex Massie and Lesley Riddoch also on the Show.

  48. Cath
    Ignored
    says:

    Someone, anyone, please explain why this idiotic debate will enhance the “YES” cause???

    So much of the NO and media case has been built on out and out lies, but Darling can’t stand there on national TV and repeat them. He will have to blusteringly, blinkingly admit (as he had to on TV last week) that of course we can still use the pound, of course we don’t be kicked out the EU etc. He will also have to then give a tortured explanation of how “of course no one ever said any of these things”. All those people who’ve believed those lies will then be left with just one enduring sense – he is a liar; their campaign has all been lies. It won’t surprise most of them, apart from perhaps a few hard no voters who’ve been living in a bubble of Better Together propaganda.

  49. kendomacaroonbar
    Ignored
    says:

    If many of you pounding the streets can sense a real difference between the Polls and street feedback, how do we capture and reflect that discrepancy in a private poll ?

  50. Jim Marshall
    Ignored
    says:

    OT

    Just been reading about a film White Settlers which is going on general release early September. Seemingly the story line is about an English couple who move to Scotland being terrorised by locals.

    I am very perturbed about this as it would appear to be an attempt to smear Scots as racists.

    http://whitesettlers.com

    Putting out a film with this content may affect the outcome of the referendum but this is probably the intention.

  51. gordoz
    Ignored
    says:

    Yeah but remember last night ‘impartial’ Sarah Smith says Polls still show consistent ‘healthy’ lead for NO; names nasty YES online as ‘Cybernats’; no equiv’ for CyberBrit trolls (apparently?). Shows poor JK rowling tweets calling her names and names Leader of YES campaign as Alex Salmond (but does not show example tweets).

    Then says YES public really dont like her and tell her so, daily. What is this mince ???

    Times up Lady, do one.

  52. Robert Peffers
    Ignored
    says:

    This rather reminds me of what I said to my pal about the Brazil Football team after the first match of the World Cup. We were watching the TV pundits.

    I said these high paid pundits are great – before the match they can tell you who will certainly win. After the match they can tell you with certainty why they didn’t. I’ll give you my opinion now for free.

    That Brazillian team are a sham. They would do much better as the Brazil diving team. They spend more time on their arses looking for fould than they do standing on their feet. It’s not my idea of great football.

    My pal laughed at me and said Brazil are the best football side in the World. I said, Aye! If you believe those pundits they are. I leave it to you to judge if my assessment was closer than theirs.

    Now – about those BBC and Better Together political pundits?

  53. gordoz
    Ignored
    says:

    @kendomacaroonbar

    WoS Panelbase Poll of Glasgow or West of Scotland.

  54. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    @kendomacaroonbar

    mumble mumble….banking crisis…..mumble mumble…big table….mumble mumble….300 years…mumble mumble..cybernats…mumble mumble…did I mention banking crisis?…shrug

    And thanks for that Mr Darling, I think everyone is convinced, goodnight!

  55. Cuilean
    Ignored
    says:

    Curtice is ‘just an ordinary’ psephologist as Clare Lally is ‘just an ordinary mum.’

  56. Cath
    Ignored
    says:

    how do we capture and reflect that discrepancy in a private poll?

    I’m not sure that can be done as it’s a psychological thing within individuals more than anything else.

  57. Michael
    Ignored
    says:

    Surely the last four weeks is when you do want to be ahead. What’s the point in being ahead now and giving the other side a shake up? And anyway in view of the fact there has never been a vote on Scottish indy before you really can’t tell when you should be ahead and when it doesn’t matter if you’re behind because there is no precedent for any of this.

  58. Michael
    Ignored
    says:

    Only after the vote will anyone be able to tell when you should feel confident about being ahead and when you need to be concerned about being behind. It’s not like a UK General Election when you have decades of trends to back-up your analysis. Curtice can’t know any more than the rest of us what any of this means because he has no previous Scottish indy referenda to base his claims on.

  59. Robert Peffers
    Ignored
    says:

    Quite frankly I think Alex Salmond might just be fly enough to have aimed for this debate with Darling from the off. There is no way in this old World that Darling can dredge up any proofs for the quite obvious lies he has spouted throughout this campaign. The facts, if Salmond is allowed to speak them without being talked over by both Darling and the TV presenter, are far too obvious when presented to undecided people.

    I cannot think of a single subject that has not been fully and extesively laid out in detail by the YES side. Like the Inverness debate where the business person kept saying, “we don’t know what currency we will use”, in spite of the facts being that the YES side’s claim it will be the pound and no one can prevent that being true.

    If he had claimed that there would be no Currency Union we may have had a debate but one he would have lost but there is no doubt that an independent Scotland’s currency will be the Pound.

  60. Big jock
    Ignored
    says:

    Aye what about that Brit nutter on Question time last night. You could tell Ricky Ross wanted to say : “Get to hell you Colonial bampot” He managd to just ignore him. And they say cybernats are fundamentalsits. Speaking of which drove back through that mean wee town Greengairs and all union flags are off lamposts! Obviously the council objected. However there was a shaven headed pot bellied eejit walking down the street with a Union Jack T shirt saying British and Proud. The nutters are all coming out of the woodwork. I also did a bit of research on said town and holy cow it’s probably the worst town in Scotland:http://www.freewebs.com/thewestbelfastvolunteers/handsacrossthesea.htm

  61. msean
    Ignored
    says:

    Great analogy re the finishing line,the First Minister hasn’t even started yet. It also seems strange that ALL the polls show a no lead,even the Brazilians got one lol.

  62. Cath
    Ignored
    says:

    Alex Salmond might just be fly enough to have aimed for this debate with Darling from the off.

    Oh aye, maybe. I’d forgotten that assumption I made at the start – if Salmond is loudly demanding something only Westminster can deliver, it probably means he wants them to take if off the table for him.

  63. macart763m
    Ignored
    says:

    @Calgacus

    I could put a flag on the back of the push bike, but the sub woofers might be a problem. 😀

  64. heedtracker
    Ignored
    says:

    Sarah Smith certainly got her shots in last night but she hit out Cybernats and then forgot to mention viewing figures for her lousy show, which oddly enough match the hootsmans 20 000 readers. USA gets the Jon Stewart Daily Show and we get what on earth it is Sarah Smith thinks she’s doing.

    Dear Sarah, your show is boring and you have as much charisma as Alistair Darling filling out his giant accommodation expenses chitty. Also your orange studio makes you look like your on another planet although to be fair, Pacific Quay must feel like that for all of you in there currently working so hard to anihalate Scottish democracy.

  65. Onwards
    Ignored
    says:

    I think the emotional aspect will come to the front in the last month.

    The SNP used to have a slogan: “Stop the world, we want to get on!”

    Might be worth rerunning that campaign, or something similar.

    We need to get over that it is a once in a lifetime opportunity to become a normal country.

  66. YESGUY
    Ignored
    says:

    I don’t usually care about polls . It will be decided on the day and all the drivel from the BT camp are old arguments old scares and old promises.

    We are winning and they are starting to get a little edgy. Watch for the fallout as they start to fight amongst themselves.

    Come on Scotland

  67. kendomacaroonbar
    Ignored
    says:

    @ Jim Marshall

    Jim, I think the timing of the ‘White Settler’ film is more opportunistic as opposed to anything sinister… they’re just trying to promote a badly made movie.

  68. Clootie
    Ignored
    says:

    Ignore the polls and keep working. At least another three YES voters each between now and the 17th September.

  69. galamcennalath
    Ignored
    says:

    Darling will be demolished. Even if he doesn’t admit to lying the whole way through the campaign … he will look and sound as if he’s lying! If he is allowed to be the human embodiment of BT, as he crumbles and bumbles under pressure, so too will BT’s whole negative stance.

    What may matter in the debate is not what is said, but how things are said, and how each man appears.

    Kennedy versus Nixon. Those who listened on radio thought Nixon won. Those who watched on TV thought Nixon was a squirming lying dodgy character.

    This will be a TV debate. Appearance and conduct are everything.

  70. Doug Daniel
    Ignored
    says:

    I spoke to an MSP about the polls a few weeks ago, and they confirmed that Yes strategists don’t really want to see the Yes vote leading in the polls until September. By then, it’ll be too late for BT to do anything to turn things around, which is presumably why Salmond wants to do the debates in August, and why BT wanted them in July.

    I notice a couple of folk are disputing the “statistical tie” bit. Quite simply, 3% error means there’s a 3% cushion of either side of the headline numbers. So, it could indeed be 44% Yes vs 56% No, but the fact that it could be 50-50 means it is a statistical tie.

    As for the numbers including Don’t Knows showing a 5% gap, all that means is that Yes could actually be 1% in front, because if you take 3% from one side and give it to the other, you’ve changed the numbers by 6%, not 3%.

  71. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    Could be another take on Aesops fables

    The Tortoise and The Hare-brained

    others applicable are :

    The Ass and his Masters
    The Ass in the Lion’s Skin
    The Boy Who Cried Wolf
    The Dog and the Wolf
    The Fisherman and the Little Fish
    The Fox and the Sick Lion
    The Fox and the Weasel
    The Trumpeter Taken Captive

    and especially for Mr Darling

    The Man with two Mistresses
    The Mischievous Dog
    The Miser and his Gold
    The Mountain in Labour

  72. James123
    Ignored
    says:

    @heedtracker
    USA gets the Jon Stewart Daily Show

    We do get kind of a Daily Show, it’s this website, Stu Campbell is our Jon Stewart.

  73. Lesley-Anne
    Ignored
    says:

    kendomacaroonbar says:

    @ Jim Marshall

    Jim, I think the timing of the ‘White Settler’ film is more opportunistic as opposed to anything sinister… they’re just trying to promote a badly made movie.

    To be fair kendo I think it is a bit difficult to see films like this in any other light than opportunistic anti independence junk. What I mean is with all the other garbage flying around attacking independence this film just fits in very nicely with the rest of the junk, smears etc.

    You are probably correct in your assessment of the timing of the films release but I think there are a lot of wingers out there who are extremely suspicious bearing in mind all the other stuff we’re up against.

  74. Andrew Morton
    Ignored
    says:

    @Cath 12:31 pm

    In my opinion, anybody who claims to be above 3 is a Yes voter who hasn’t firmed up their vote. Anybody who says they are 2 or 3 is an Undecided who is too nervous to admit they are undecided. They are the ones who will swing it. Unfortunately they are also the ones who get their news and opinion from the Daily Express and the BBC.

  75. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    For all those sick of hearing the worlds Old and Scotland and cant get that guy from Question Time out your head..

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b047lx52

    ( You might want to tape it as one as same time as World Cu final but it comes highly recommended if you missed it first time around..plus its King Creosote..come on!)

  76. Cath
    Ignored
    says:

    Dear Sarah, your show is boring and you have as much charisma as Alistair Darling

    Vile cybernat abuse!

  77. heedtracker
    Ignored
    says:

    I’d love to debate Darling. eg You keep saying Scotland couldn’t afford a 2008 bank crash that went public say first week Oct 2008, when did you first learn about it all as Chancellor Darling?”

  78. Robert Peffers
    Ignored
    says:

    @Marker Post says: 11 July, 2014 at 11:55 am:
    “How can anyone even thinking of voting No?”

    It’s a little known certaintry of elections of all kinds. It’s called, “sheer Ignorance”

  79. heedtracker
    Ignored
    says:

    @ Cath, guilty but Sarah Smoth is so bad, she’s made Newsnight London look fantastic, with a very good Scot presenter too, which is all probably all coincidence and the dysfunctional cluster fcuk in Pacific Quay with only one purpose, make Scotland look too poor too etc.

  80. Ken500
    Ignored
    says:

    The Daily Record is changing

    Portillo commented on the last Holyrood SNP landslide, when Labour were reported to be 10 points? ahead. The SNP gained ground in the last few weeks. What a relief, especially with the ConDem gov elected to Westminster.

  81. James123
    Ignored
    says:

    You notice in that picture the only white girl is beating the others. That makes the Rev an evil cybernat nazi rascist.

  82. Big jock
    Ignored
    says:

    Shocking poking fun at poor Sarah. She is a London Scot trying desperately to remember her roots. In fact trying to remember what she went to journalism school for. She might has well have written opinion columns for the Daily Mail. But it just sums up the BBC that can’t even get presenters to say the town Kill- Inn instead of Kil- In.

  83. Murray McCallum
    Ignored
    says:

    “Yes strategists don’t really want to see the Yes vote leading in the polls until September. By then, it’ll be too late for BT to do anything to turn things around”

    Don’t know about others, but this makes sense to me. I also like the idea of one campaign naturally thinking it *must* work harder than the other right up to when the polling booths close.

  84. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    @James123

    Very good. Also did you notice shes Australian, so hes having a cheeky rant at the former Empire and in turn Her Majesty too….an evil cybernat nazi republican rascist

  85. Big jock
    Ignored
    says:

    Agreed if Yes go ahead I would expect MI5 and the secret service to get involved. If we go in just behind it will be too late for them to invent stories about prominant nationalists. Ever wonder why Cameron was so desperate to rush through the bill allowing phone,text and email tapping. Trust me someone at MI5 will be reading this. By the way if you are I hope I am on your list.

  86. Les Wilson
    Ignored
    says:

    According to an email from Nicola Sturgeon, probably just in her name of course. However it went on to say there will be a major step up in the campaign going forward.

    I want to take their word for that, and it makes sense to hold back, as it is all about timing, and Alex Salmond is very good at that.

  87. Jim Marshall
    Ignored
    says:

    kendo & Lesley-Anne

    Re White Settlers.

    Perhaps I”m being hyper sensitive on this but I feel this film can only be detrimental to the YES campaign. Portraying Scottish people as being hostile to incomers is in itself a racist smear.

  88. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    @Big jock

    Someone on twitter last night said “Well if its a YES vote, just watch them (Westminster etc) refuse and take control!”

    Some people really do live within one big fear bubble. How can every other aspiring nation in the world live in hope bar us.

  89. Ken500
    Ignored
    says:

    Will Darling start greeting like Carmichael and Clegg?

  90. Calgacus MacAndrews
    Ignored
    says:

    @macart763m says:
    @Calgacus
    I could put a flag on the back of the push bike, but the sub woofers might be a problem. 😀

    You could maybes make a wee IndyRef cartie:-

    http://scottishcarties.org.uk/taxonomy/term/15

    🙂

  91. Tom Platt
    Ignored
    says:

    If anyone wants a better analysis of the poll then Curice provides, you’ll find one here IMO:-http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/07/support-for-independence-soars-to.html

    Tom

  92. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    @Jim Marshall

    Jim, think of ever other scare story so far, what affect has that had? Laugh it off mate, its has much chance of scary resident English in Scotland has as Dawn of The Apes ( a film worth seeing!) has of putting people of watching chimps at Edinburgh Zoo.

  93. Jim Mitchell
    Ignored
    says:

    Ah our ‘friends’ of the unionist press, I think George Clooney did quite a good job of summing up regarding one of heir papers, most of us would say it applys to nearly all of them.

    “The Mail knew the story… was false and printed it anyway,” he wrote in a statement published by USA Today.

    The paper, he continued, was “the worst kind of tabloid. One that makes up its facts to the detriment of its readers.”

    The Mail Online apologised “for any distress caused” by its story while denying it had been fabricated.

    Clooney thanked the Daily Mail for its apology before adding: “Not that I would ever accept it.”

    “What separates this from all of the ridiculous things the Mail makes up is that now, by their own admission, it can be proved to be a lie.”

    Says it all really!

  94. Les Wilson
    Ignored
    says:

    Ken500 says:

    Ken, personally I think it will be a ” Help me Bernard, help me!” moment.

  95. Garry
    Ignored
    says:

    When being asked by a neutral party, eg a pollster, Don’t Knows are almost certainly genuine Don’t Knows and very often the actual turnout on polling day is very close to the total electorate less the percentage of Don’t Knows according to the most recent polls.

    There can be no argument that it is perfectly valid for a pollster to exclude Don’t Knows from headline numbers.

    When being asked by a partisan, eg a Yes Scotland volunteer or No Thanks contractor ;-), the profile of Don’t Knows is very different.

    Firstly, some genuine Don’t Knows will be persuaded to indicate their support simply through the immediacy of their engagement with that side of the campaign. So there is a risk that Don’t Knows are underestimated with respect to your own side’s level of support.

    Secondly, and a much bigger factor, is that opponents will very often indicate they are Don’t Knows to avoid offending their inquisitor. There is certainty that Don’t Knows are overestimated with respect to your opponent’s level of support.

    From my own experience of SNP/Labour party politics, I would suggest that as many as 75% of Don’t Knows are likely to be ‘polite’ opponents in reality. How big this effect is in terms of the Referendum is anyone’s guess but be sure that it will be a factor.

    Taking things at face value, there are ways to explain at least some of the difference between opinion polls and canvass returns.

    However, I’m not convinced that the polls are picking up the views of the generally disengaged punter. For example, one YouGov poll recently suggested that 70% of the panel had voted in the Euro elections – whereas the real turnout was around 30%. When this is considered alongside the grassroots evidence of overwhelming support for Yes in the housing schemes there is plenty of cause for optimism.

  96. Flooplepoop
    Ignored
    says:

    We should get a list of anti SNP quotes made before the 1999 referendum, 2007 and 2011 elections, it would make for amusing reading.

  97. Lou Nisbet
    Ignored
    says:

    @ Jim Marshall says

    My wife and I are an Edinburgh couple and we were terrorised in Scotland, car smashed, windows broken dog shit everywhere etc. This phenomenon has nothing in particular to do with Scotland it is an universal human trait.

    In Fife and elsewhere people from the next village are vilified as outsiders let alone the next country. So forget about it. Those who wish to see it as racist WILL do so. Others better informed will ignore it. In fact what you are doing, unintentionally I am sure, is PROMOTING the bloody thing – better to ignore it.

  98. Caroline Corfield
    Ignored
    says:

    I think in this TV debate, even subconsciously, most voters will be eyeing up who is going to be better at negotiating what they want.

    Will they think Darling can get Westminster to give the Scots the Devo Max that no one is offering?

    Or will they think Salmond is the man they want negotiating with Westminster to get the best deal for an independent Scotland?

    I personally think independence is coming even if it’s a No this time but the team that Scotland has now to negotiate it will never be bettered and as for Darling, he cannot help but come across as a powerless back bench opposition MP whose heart isn’t really in it but whose wallet it truly embedded.

  99. faolie
    Ignored
    says:

    Dead heat eh? Can’t be long now before we see a nudging ahead

  100. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    Lou Nisbet

    Did you study at Strathclyde?

  101. Taranaich
    Ignored
    says:

    @Rev: You don’t give the gold medal in the 100m to the runner who’s leading after 70m, or the one who posts the best times in training.

    This is the best analogy I’ve seen of the debate.

    @desimond: Salmond versus Darling reminds me of a solid, quiet, confident Germany fancing a loud and brash Brazil. We all know how that turned out.

    No, wait, THIS is the best analogy I’ve seen of the debate!

    @cal: What I am finding is that people WANT you to convince them to vote Yes and this is becoming more common.

    Funny you should mention that, I’ve had a couple of people actually coming up and asking me to do just that. I just point them to the Wings repository, as well as my blog (cheap plug!) and mention a few names. It’s amazing how persuasive just providing some facts can be.

    Case in point, the pound. Even if you ignore the pound being fully tradeable, even if you ignore the pound being as much Scottish currency as English, even if you ignore England (I’ve stopped using rUK because I think it’s disingenuous to present Wales & Northern Ireland as nations anywhere near Scotland & England’s autonomy) having as much to lose without a currency union as Scotland does… Why in the name of Kate should we believe a thing the three Westminster parties say?

    “All three parties say No Currency Union.”
    “All three parties say No NHS Privatisation.”
    “All three parties say No Bedroom Tax.”
    “All three parties say No Welfare Cap.”

    Apparently we’re supposed to just ignore those last three and the countless other times parties have toed the line, because the currency union is different. For some reason. Just because.

    @Jim Marshall: Just been reading about a film White Settlers which is going on general release early September. Seemingly the story line is about an English couple who move to Scotland being terrorised by locals.

    I am very perturbed about this as it would appear to be an attempt to smear Scots as racists.

    It’s just another example of the accepted “fact” that Scots are notoriously xenophobic towards the English, despite the majority (proportionately as well as numerically) of confrontations between Scots and English on nationality grounds being anti-Scottish incidents. What’s even more disturbing is the GUARDIAN, of all papers, had a line about the film being “cathartic” for “Scottish nationalists.” As a nationalist, I find it revolting to equate belief in the idea Scotland should be an independent nation with a hatred of the English people.

    But I guess after the implied Scottish xenophobia of Doomsday, Centurion, The Wicker Man and other films where Scots don’t like “outsiders,” it seemed a natural progression to go into explicit Scottish xenophobia.

  102. Duggie
    Ignored
    says:

    “an awful lot can change in the last six weeks – or indeed the last two, come to that”

    But nothing changed in the last two weeks of the 2011 election – 2 weeks before the election every poll showed that the SNP would win the election by a fairly comfortable margin and that’s exactly what happened.

  103. Duggie
    Ignored
    says:

    “even if you ignore the pound being as much Scottish currency as English”

    The pound isn’t Scotland’s or England’s currency, its the sovereign state UK’s.

    “Why in the name of Kate should we believe a thing the three Westminster parties say?”

    Should we believe what the SNP tell us regarding currency union and EU membership considering the fact that they lied to us previously on the latter (when they claimed EU membership would be ‘automatic’ and with ‘no’ need to even negotiate with the EU first) and the fact that their sole belief that the currency union will happen is based on the personal opinion of some random unknown minister who probably won’t even be in power when the negotiations take place?

  104. kininvie
    Ignored
    says:

    @Garry,

    What you say is of course true – for elections. I’m not so sure it is true in this case.

    It’s entirely subjective, of course, but my impression on the doorsteps is that the don’t knows are genuine, for the simple reason that most are more than willing to give their reasons and talk about their concerns. In fact, as others have observed, there’s a desire to engage with canvassers…almost like a confessional in a way.

    Where I think we are probably getting the polite response is on the scale question – people may be saying 6 or 7 when they are actually 2 or 3.

  105. Black Douglas
    Ignored
    says:

    Hey Duggies back 🙂
    our pet 👿 hope you enjoy your shift

  106. heedtracker
    Ignored
    says:

    @ Dugggie, there will be currency union because the UK can’t afford not be in a currency union with Scotland and above all, the City won’t take the losses and costs of dudes like you saying no.

    Glad to help.

  107. Haggis
    Ignored
    says:

    Yes have been keeping a steady pace for along time now. Calmly matching pace when needed. BT on the other hand has been spinning and flailing around, red-cheeked and in all directions.

    Better Together/No Thanks/No/whatever they call themselves at the next relaunch they do have shot their load too early and missed the target.

  108. Proud Cybernat
    Ignored
    says:

    O/T – apologies:

    Proud Cybernat has found something for Flipper to wear in his big debate with Scotland’s First Minster:

    http://www.scottcreighton.co.uk/indyref/images/DC.jpg

  109. macart763m
    Ignored
    says:

    @Calgacus

    Oh hell, that was a trip down memory lane. That was the summer sorted when I was boy. Who could build the deadliest geggie. 😀

    There wasn’t a bike or old pram safe and faithers had to put twentyfour hour guard on their tool sheds.

  110. Duggie
    Ignored
    says:

    “there will be currency union because the UK can’t afford not be in a currency union with Scotland”

    According to the UK they can afford not to, considering the fact that all three main parties have rejected it.

    “the City won’t take the losses and costs”

    According to the City themselves – in the shape of their representatives the CBI and IoD – the losses and costs of not having a currency union with Scotland are far outweighed by the dangers associated with being a lender of last resort to a separate state.

    Of course, the personal opinion of some random unknown minister who probably won’t even be in power when the negotiations take place is far more important than the official stated policy of the UK parties and official opinions of the City isn’t it…….

  111. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    @Black Douglas

    When you said ‘shift’…were you thinking ‘next ones a hedgehog’?

  112. Lou Nisbet
    Ignored
    says:

    @Bugger (the Panda) says:
    11 July, 2014 at 2:31 pm

    Lou Nisbet

    Did you study at Strathclyde?

    No Sorry – Edinburgh

  113. Black Douglas
    Ignored
    says:

    @desimond

    Well wee duggies will eat anything and everything 🙂

    so lets hope so.

  114. Robert Peffers
    Ignored
    says:

    @VJLT says: 11 July, 2014 at 12:09 pm

    “For those who have doubt, or are marginally worried about what may happen on the day itself, I have a belief that psychologically, many people who are soft ‘No’s or ‘Don’t Know’s will vote ‘Yes’ on the day.”

    Oh! Come on! Bit of common sense here please?

    What person, on the day of the referendum who is still undecided, is going to even bother going out to the polling station with a mind still not yet made up?

    If they don’t know by then they are not going to know between leaving the house and getting to the polling booth. If they cannot weed out the truth from the lies before polling day they are never going to do so.

    That is until either the benefits of others having voted YES or the horror experienced by the stark results of the austerity promised by all shades of Unionist Political parties have made themselves well and truly apparent after a NO win.

    By then it is far, far too late to decide they should have voted YES.

  115. Robert Peffers
    Ignored
    says:

    @Cath says: 11 July, 2014 at 12:49 pm:

    “Why is/are he/she/they Yes…why are so many yes” and also, I suspect, noting the difference between their friends/family and the portrayal of yes voters, “cybernats” and the debate in the media”

    Sorry to disillusion you, Cath, but you are missing something in your psychology. It is this, those people wondering about their friends, family and cybernats can identify well with the friends and family members.

    The Cybernats, though, these are akin to those kind of evil entities of the inner mind. Things like vampires, Zombies, ghosties, goollies and lang leggied beasties and things whit gang bump in the nicht. The shadowy, fleeting,unreal, and half imagined inner personal fears of the twilight zone.

    These cannot be fully identified with cuddly family members and personal friends. They will remain figments of fear dreamt up and implanted in their minds by the propaganda wing of dis-United Kingdom that is the sole remnant of a once evil Empire of Britain.

    Don’t you realise these people of Better Together actually believe that there is a large number of evil night time creatures huddled over hot computers in dank, dreary, dim-lit bedrooms who wait only for the word from their evil political master to send out into the public domain whatever evil lies the evil dictator e-mails them? A vast conspiracy of co-ordinated evil that they alone can defeat.

    Ye couldna mak it up – but they can.

  116. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    OK Lou

    I remember a Louis Nisbet.

    I am sure you are a good person, though.

  117. handclapping
    Ignored
    says:

    The saving grace of the City is that the movers and shakers are not in the CBI and IoD. Just look at (Sir) Fred the Shred, not a clue that the wide boys beneath him had bet the bank on redline Yanks being able to pay their mortgages, or blue blood Barings brought to its knees by some far off colonial.

    Tell me Duggie did you enter your children for Oxford on the basis of the LibDem promise on tuition fees? If you believe what party politicians tell you, I have a bridge in Arizona to sell you.

    That is so bad you bring trolling into disrepute

  118. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    Robert Peffers

    My ex wife for one, I will stop there.

  119. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    handclapping

    I have the river and water to go with that.

  120. Andy-B
    Ignored
    says:

    Ah yes it reminds me of the hare and the tortoise race, Alistair Darling being the hare, now how did that end again?.

  121. Andy-B
    Ignored
    says:

    O/T.

    Ed Miliband is less cool than Sir Menzies Campbell, in a YouGov poll, does this mean Sir Ming is a wee bit or a big bit cool?.

    Either way Ed Miliband isn’t a popular guy and not looked upon as a UK PM.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/10961684/Ed-Miliband-is-less-cool-than-Sir-Menzies-Campbell-survey-finds.html

  122. Grouse Beater
    Ignored
    says:

    Yes vote to win by 63% of votes cast.

    Labour claims, “unacceptable face of democracy.”
    Tories in disarray, “A calamitous day for the United Kingdom.”
    Lib-Dems bewildered at outcome, “What they said.”

  123. Grouse Beater
    Ignored
    says:

    Duggie’s havers: According to the City themselves – in the shape of their representatives the CBI and IoD

    Which isn’t the ‘City’ at all.

  124. Robert Peffers
    Ignored
    says:

    @Duggie says: 11 July, 2014 at 2:54 pm

    <b"The pound isn’t Scotland’s or England’s currency, its the sovereign state UK’s."

    There is no such state as a Sovereign State UK, Duggie. The three country Kingdom of England has an independent legal system and became a, “Constitutional Monarchy”, in 1688, (Glorious Revolution). The Kingdom of Scotland’s independent kingdom’s independent legal system is based upon the people of Scotland being Sovereign and that sovereignty cannot be passed to Westminster..

    “Should we believe what the SNP tell us regarding currency union and EU membership considering the fact that they lied to us previously on the latter (when they claimed EU membership would be ‘automatic’ and with ‘no’ need to even negotiate with the EU first) and the fact that their sole belief that the currency union will happen is based on the personal opinion of some random unknown minister who probably won’t even be in power when the negotiations take place?”

    Perhaps you would care to quote the exact sources for the above two claims, Duggie?

    The first was based upon the First minister’s reply to a question by Andrew Neil. Considering the question was, “Have you sought advice from your own Scottish law officers in this matter?”. To construe that his answer was he claimed it came from the EU only proves no one in Better Together can read English.

    As to currency – Sterling, being a n international tradeble currency, anyone can use it. Furthermore Sterling has been the Scottish Currency just as long as it has been English. BTW: The BofE is a United Kingdom Bank, not English, and the United Kingdom is a bipartite Kingdom.

    Care to comment further, Duggie?

  125. Robert Peffers
    Ignored
    says:

    @Duggie says: 11 July, 2014 at 3:17 pm:

    I normally do not engage with fools or trolls but, being at a loose end ATM will prove you speak mince.

    Your first, unsubstantiated, conclusion that there will remain a United Kingdom after said, “United Kingdom”, has disunited is, to say the least, somewhat specious. What exactly is your legal evidence for that strange claim? Here are the legal facts, together with cites to the legal documents, to prove the sources. In order to substantiate your specious claims requires that you disprove these sources.

    In 1284 the English monarchy annexed the Princedom of Wales as an integral part of, “The Kingdom Of England”. (see, ‘The Statute of Rhuddlan 1284). To this day the Prince of Wales is subject to his parent and Wales remains an English Principality. In 1542 the then Monarchy of England, who termed himself the Lord of Ireland annexed Ireland as an integral part of the Kingdom of England, (See The Crown of Ireland Act 1542).

    In 1320 Scotland sent a declaration to the then head of all Christendom, (the Pope in Rome), This declared Scotland an Independent Kingdom and also declared that the Scots monarchy were not sovereign but the people of Scotland were, (See The Declaration of Arbroath 1320). Subsequently the English and Scottish Kingdoms signed the Edinburgh-Northamton Treaty, (1328). Incidentally Bruce paid 100,000 pounds Sterling to England as part of that treaty: Ergo Sterling was already a common currency.

    In 1603 The Scottish Monarch inherited the Crown of the Kingdom of England but the two Kingdoms remained independent with their own independent parliaments for the next 104 years. There was no Union of the Crowns – just two independent crowns upon one person’s head. Then, in 1688 the independent, three country, English Parliament staged the, “Glorious Revolution”, and deposed their, (Independent Monarchy), and installed in its place the foreign William of Orange & Mary as joint English Monarchs. They also removed from them the Royal veto over Parliament.

    As Scotland was still an independent kingdom this did NOT depose the King of Scots but did start the Jacobite Uprising that the arrogant English have always claimed as a Jacobite Rebellion. You cannot, though, rebel against a monarch not your own. The Jacobite Uprisings spanned the Treaty of Union from 1688 – 1745. This partly explains the English Kingdom’s needs for a Treaty of Union.

    So now we must consider the Treaty of U
    nion and it’s legal implications. The treaty was NOT between countries but was between KINGDOMS. The Treaty was between only two kingdoms and is thus bipartite. It is composed of Articles of Union and each such article is in itself a legal agreement. We need consider only the first three articles of union and can ignore Article II as it only deals with the royal accession and succession and that is not under dispute.

    Here is Article I. – “That the two kingdoms of Scotland and England shall upon the first day of May next ensuing the date hereof, and for ever after, be united into one kingdom by the name of GREAT BRITAIN; And that the Ensigns Armorial of the said united kingdom be such as Her Majesty shall appoint,, and the crosses of St Andrew and St George be conjoined, in such manner as Her Majesty shall think fit, and used in all flags, banners, standards and ensigns, both at sea and land”.

    It does no more than form a single united royal realm – Ergo- The present United Kingdom is the realm of Elizabeth II. No more and no less.

    Here is Article III. – “That the united kingdom of Great Britain be represented by one and the same parliament to be stiled The Parliament of Great Britain”

    This establishes a new parliament and not a continued parliament of either former Kingdom

    Norw Duggie, The legal facts are that if either former kingdom removes itself from the United Kingdom PARLIAMENT that united Kingdom Parliament, (as per Article III), will have disunited and the Status Quo Ante, (look the term up), Is a reversion to TWO independent Kingdom Parliaments. As for the actual United Kingdom – the Royal Realm will remain intact,

    Noo wee Duddie, aither pit up or shut up. With the alternative of, as we say in Scotland, tae awa an bile yer heid.

  126. Ann
    Ignored
    says:

    I’m firmly with Colin and believe that on the day of the Referedum Vote people will pause and think before putting a cross in the box and will vote for Scotland as they did when asked the same Yes/No question for the creation of the Devolved Scottish Parliament.

    I am seeing more and more Yes stickers on Cars and windows and more and more people openly wearing yes badges since the big bust up with JK Rowling.

  127. Ann
    Ignored
    says:

    Doh! Referendum.

  128. X_Sticks
    Ignored
    says:

    It’s probably good to be behind in the polls. I hope it will galvanise us to action and it’s certainly scared the complacency out of me. As Ian Brotherhood said, “a big deep breath”. We’ve got 68 days.

    As Clootie says, “three Yes voters each between now and Sept. We can do this.

    There’s going to be an incredible amount of froth coming up with all the events both sporting and political. We need to keep our ayes on the prize guys.

    I’m gutted to be missing the last T at Balado but I’ll be campaigning at the Echt Show http://www.echtshow.co.uk/ on the YesMobile tomorrow. Come along and see some sheep or tractors 😀

  129. X_Sticks
    Ignored
    says:

    Oh, and Paula Rose, I forgot to say there will be a sausage competition. Just thought you’d like to know 😉

  130. Davy
    Ignored
    says:

    Ok who let Duggie back in, and where’s the other smooth talking troll gone to, damn can’t remember it’s name.

    So come on “Duggie” whats your real name ?

  131. Muscleguy
    Ignored
    says:

    It’s not just that your hand in front won’t count. Even if you obviously win or place and even if you are Sally Pearson if you step over the lane line, or lean over too far when hurdling and interfere with the racer next to you, then you will be disqualified.

    It’s a tough old game hurdling, going up and down while running fast. I tried it as a kid but moved out to the steeplechase, more distance between the obstacles. I keep in trim by running along the beach here hurdling the groynes. As you say though the only real test is the race itself. Gun goes off 7am September 18. I intend to be there on the startline. No poll result will deter me, none will make me complacent.

  132. Vronsky
    Ignored
    says:

    The point has been made but I’ll repeat it: if polls are actually finding 50/50 but error band shows this as one side leading, then errors being random the leader should change randomly. But the pattern is always Yes ahead.

    However ignoring error, I’d consider Yes 3-5% behind on the eve of poll as a winning position, based on the vastly more motivated Yes vote.

    Still, it’s depressing that almost 50% of Scots can see no merit in governing their own country – it shows the horrifying power of propaganda.

  133. Paula Rose
    Ignored
    says:

    @ X_Sticks – honey I’m just back in the virtual world, sausages? Do enlighten dear.

  134. X_Sticks
    Ignored
    says:

    @Paula Rose

    http://www.echtshow.co.uk/

    As usual the Echt Show will be held on the second Saturday in July, featuring the following attractions.

    Agricultural
    Cattle / Sheep / Horse Judging and Stock parade; Young Farmers events; Junior stock handler; Sheep shearing; Clydesdale horses; Vintage tractors display; Unaffiliated Show Jumping

    Sports
    Highland Dancing; Tug o’ War; ‘Heavies’ (traditional Scottish sports); Kids races;

    Other Competitions
    Industrial; Sausage competition; Dog Show

    General Attractions
    Funfair; Pipe Band; Sideshows;Food Fayre; Tradestands; Teas/Refreshments; Catering on site

    Main Event
    Phoenix Falconry Birds of Prey

    And the YesMobile https://twitter.com/X_Sticks_Real/status/473217192775786496/photo/1

    Sorry to be soo O/T Rev 😀

  135. JWil
    Ignored
    says:

    Curtice amuses me. He habitually intersperses his polling analyses with the words “in truth”. I would have thought any competent statistician knows that, ‘truth’, doesn’t come into statistical analyses. It’s all conjecture with a good helping of probability thrown in.

  136. Grouse Beater
    Ignored
    says:

    Vronsky: Still, it’s depressing that almost 50% of Scots can see no merit in governing their own country

    Depends how you quantify 50% – many voters are not Scots, some won’t vote because they are abroad, work outside Scotland as drivers or salesmen, or don’t ever vote. Some will be in hopital, and so it goes on.

  137. JLT
    Ignored
    says:

    What person, on the day of the referendum who is still undecided, is going to even bother going out to the polling station with a mind still not yet made up?

    Robert, I think you’ll find quite a few folk will be caught between heaven and hell on the day. Psychologically, quite a few folk will still be debating it as they put pen to paper. To say that 4 million of us will have a hardcore Yes or No in our heads is nonsense!

  138. Brian Ritchie
    Ignored
    says:

    Still, it’s depressing that almost 50% of Scots can see no merit in governing their own country – it shows the horrifying power of propaganda.
    Well I don’t believe it is 50%. I think S_S is right when he says 10-15% are telling porkies. But we shall only know on the day.

  139. Eddie Black
    Ignored
    says:

    All these polls are nothing more than guesstimates….I, nor anyone I know has ever been asked which way they intend to vote in any poll whatsoever.

  140. bugsbunny
    Ignored
    says:

    I have said to friends, family and neighbours all along that I could only say for certain that it’s going to be close, and it’s going to be bitter. Bitter Together should be the real name for these set of lying balloons. I, for a long time predicted a 52% to 48% outcome, but was unwilling or unable to say who would be in the lead. I hope to God it’s yes? It may even be closer? Take a long look at faces on the streets on 19th September. You will generally tell who voted what the night before, barring a personal tragedy of course. That old fool from Nairn was on page 21 of yesterdays Sun. Walking down the road in a kilt with the union flag flying. If he was a Yes voter, the media would have had a field day.

    Stephen.

  141. Oor Wull
    Ignored
    says:

    For the moderator: Correction to above: It has taken me a long to work this out but I expect the Scottish Government may be well ahead of me …. This should read : It has taken me a long TIME to work this out but I expect the Scottish Government may be well ahead of me

  142. Rev. Stuart Campbell
    Ignored
    says:

    Wull, the reason your posts aren’t getting approved is because they’re about 5000 words long without a single paragraph break in them. Please read the commenting rules.

  143. Oor Wull
    Ignored
    says:

    Thank you for the clarification, Stuart. Have read rules and will try to modify accordingly, comply in future etc. Sorry for causing you unnecessary work …. Thank you for all the good work you do.

  144. Hamish
    Ignored
    says:

    Duggie says: “all three main parties have rejected [a currency union].”

    Describing the future using the past tense? You seem to be a bit wet behind the ears when it comes to politics.

  145. siminstance
    Ignored
    says:

    The polls are not asking the common man/woman which way he/she will be voting- stand outside the jobcentre and ask everyone who goes in there- I’ll eat my own hat if its not a massively different result.
    Scotlands 1 million people living in poverty are not your normal voter, but show them there is hope of a better future and help them register to vote- that will swing it for us in the end.
    none of it will count unless they are registered and most of them aren’t and don’t know how to or don’t have access to do so- that will lose it for us.



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