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The devil in the detail 95

Posted on November 21, 2013 by

We’ve had a closer look at the Institute for Fiscal Studies report from this week.

Basically, the conclusion of the report is that if an independent Scotland continued to do exactly the same things over the next 50 years as the UK does now, it would have to grow its GDP by 1.9% to cover a predicted fiscal gap, while the UK would only have to grow by 0.8% to cover a similar gap. According to the IFS, this 1.9% shortfall would mean a 6% cut in services or a hike of 8% in income tax in an independent Scotland.

However, close reading of the small print in the IFS document highlights facts and forecast figures that appear to contradict the IFS’s argument and instead point to a situation where an independent Scotland would actually be in a similar fiscal position to the UK. Confused? Yes, so were we.

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Category analysis, scottish politics, stats

The ‘No’ future 130

Posted on March 15, 2013 by

The media (and some of the more gullible elements of the blogosphere) recently got itself into a lather about Douglas Alexander’s latest contribution to the independence debate – excellently rebutted by novellist and playwright Alan Bissett – which presented his vision of a post-referendum Scotland that voted No to independence.

nofuture

Here’s an alternative picture. But unlike the typical “Better Together” scare story, these are not fabricated fantasies. Many are happening right now, while others are merely under discussion and in preparation.

This is what you’re voting for if you vote No.

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Category analysis, comment, disturbing, uk politics

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  • Recent Comments

    • Aidan on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Now that he’s on pre-mod (I expect) he’ll go off and haunt some other forum.” Jul 23, 23:15
    • robertkknight on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “His King’s Colours didn’t go down too well either, with the Scots deciding upon their own design, which was contrary…” Jul 23, 23:12
    • Alf Baird on Ain’t it funny how things change?: ““I’m every bit as much a Sovereign Scot as you.” In a colonial society there are plenty of assimilated natives…” Jul 23, 22:41
    • Angus on Ain’t it funny how things change?: ““Ain’t it funny how things change?” Ain’t it also funny how things never change? Labour has been promising to abolish…” Jul 23, 22:35
    • Captain Caveman on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Heh, oh really… Well, I’d “knock it on the head” and quit whilst you’re (self evidently) behind, Confused. 🙂” Jul 23, 22:23
    • Confused on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “EFTA came up, in the context of GDP/capita – the small, rich countries club – but you realise evil never…” Jul 23, 22:23
    • Xaracen on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “A, B, C, and E don’t mean anything to you, Aidan, and they don’t have to. They did mean something…” Jul 23, 22:10
    • Confused on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “you’re a bit of a pedant, and prone to miss the point (like some others round here, the reading age…” Jul 23, 22:05
    • Confused on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “sure www.youtube.com/watch?v=l5FbYBiJiuA caveman, you’re the kind of turnip a bash on the head might knock some sense into” Jul 23, 22:01
    • Confused on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Main – the mobile gas van is on route number 6 000 000 as any fule kno” Jul 23, 21:59
    • sam on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Auld enemy. Different language,they didnae ken. Deid Mum. Divine Right was right up their parliamentary noses. On the plus side…” Jul 23, 21:28
    • diabloandco on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “I see Queen Camilla is thoroughly enjoying the opening ceremony!!” Jul 23, 21:21
    • Aidan on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “A, B and C don’t mean anything but E is interesting, what proportion of Scots had the vote in 1707…” Jul 23, 21:18
    • Cynicus on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Alf Baird says: 22 July, 2026 at 4:31 pm There is a long history of elite Scots selling out their…” Jul 23, 21:00
    • Hatey McHateface on Ain’t it funny how things change?: ““The people paid far less in taxes” Sure Xaracen. And not only did we get free cradle to grave benefits…” Jul 23, 20:55
    • Alf Baird on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Divide an rule is aye the colonizer’s tool. The colonized are made ‘bystanders’ in their own land; they are ‘out…” Jul 23, 20:53
    • Hatey McHateface on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Assuming rounded populations of England at 50 million and Scotland at 5 million. The political will to address the issue…” Jul 23, 20:47
    • 100%Yes on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “What John Swinney has just signed Scotland over to Manchester and he’d doesn’t even know what powers the Scottish parliament…” Jul 23, 20:45
    • Hatey McHateface on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Oddly enough, that greater trust in Scottish governments peaked under Nicola Sturgeon during the Covid Years. Nowadays, the ex party…” Jul 23, 20:35
    • 100%Yes on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Wings predicted on here and by people posting on here as well. But the SNP commitment to the union has…” Jul 23, 20:29
    • Hatey McHateface on Ain’t it funny how things change?: ““proselytising religions” Naw. A proselytising religion is one where its adherents chap your door, earnestly attempt to tell you the…” Jul 23, 20:24
    • Hatey McHateface on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Havers, Mark. Check out the front lines (and the combat casualty lists) from the war in the east. You’ll find…” Jul 23, 20:09
    • Mark Beggan on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Why not. No one else wants the job. What about asking Jack McConnell to step in.” Jul 23, 20:06
    • sam on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “https://www.gov.scot/publications/scottish-social-attitudes-survey-2025-core-module/pages/5/ Factchecker. Link above. Of interest to me, the steep decline in trust of the Scottish government since 2015. Signs…” Jul 23, 19:55
    • Xaracen on Ain’t it funny how things change?: ““What made Scotland “much better” before 1707, Xaracen?” A, it was independent, B, it wasn’t a colony of England, C,…” Jul 23, 19:29
    • Hatey McHateface on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Sorry, Alf, but I’m every bit as much a Sovereign Scot as you. What have I already told you about…” Jul 23, 19:15
    • factchecker on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “sam, my comment on the uncontextualised use of survey data relates to the original post. Not the survey itself. Hence…” Jul 23, 18:18
    • factchecker on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Dan, regarding the much-quoted “Union of Equals” that I know is such a popular trope, I am unaware of any…” Jul 23, 18:12
    • sam on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “Don’t forget the colonisation of Ireland by the Scots and English. James granted confiscated land from Irish Catholics to Protestant…” Jul 23, 18:06
    • Young Lochinvar on Ain’t it funny how things change?: “FC Apology accepted. Always laugh when those who know their wordsmithery isn’t cutting it feel the need to conclude with…” Jul 23, 17:49

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