Apocalypse worsens
Monday:
(UK government “factsheet” issued by the Scotland Office.)
Wednesday:
“For the average mortgage in Scotland, there would be £5,400 more [in] mortgage payments a year.”
(George Osborne to the Scottish Affairs Select Committee.)
Yikes! What the hell happened on Tuesday?
Of course, a 217% rise in the official UK government scare figure in the space of 48 hours doesn’t mean anything actually changed. It just means that the Treasury pulled both figures out of its backside at random because they don’t even respect you enough to get their lies straight.
There is no conceivable reason for anyone’s mortgage to go up at all in an independent Scotland. Mortgages are not a national transaction, they’re an individual one – the bank’s lending money to YOU, not to Scotland. Mortgage rates would continue to be based on the Bank of England base rate, which would continue to be set exactly as it is now and on exactly the same principles, which have nothing to do with mortgages.
(Any bank which attempted to unilaterally increase rates for Scottish customers alone would, obviously, be committing commercial suicide. It would clearly have no possible defensible reason for doing so – you didn’t just become a worse risk because your government changed – and not only would mortgage customers go elsewhere but ordinary banking customers in Scotland would desert in protest. And banks care about profits, not politics.)
We’ve said it before and we have no doubt that we’ll have cause to say it many more times before September – this is how little the Unionist parties think of you. This is how stupid they think you are.
I notice Monday is an estimate whereas Wednesday is a statement of fact.
The power elite of merry England have always seen Scotland as their holiday province. They lie to deceive and to keep possession. There is only one possible decision – Yes.
No, they are absolutely right. I’ll rewrite the sentence.
“Those with mortgages in Scotland will appear to rise by UK£5400 per annum because the UK£ devalued so much against the Sco£ and now we are wishing we’d actually let the Scots stay in monetary union”
Apparently unable to articulate a positive case for the UK, unionism now seems to have degenerated into a fundamenatlist faith position, where any means justifies the end.
Lies, damned lies, and Better Together.
There has been much talk of reconciliation post September. How can there be? All these predictions of apocalypse will simply never come true. It’s all deceit in a last ditch attempt save a failing Union. How can Better Together and their MSM chums ever be forgiven for their total disregard for honest political debate and the democratic process?
Clearly, if it’s a Yes win then Osborne et al become someone else’s problem. But what of the Scots who have become neck deep in peddling this filth? Yes or No, how can they expect us to forgive and forget what they have done?
This was always predicted. With 4 months left we will be bombarded with the same despicable nonsense. This is the final assault by the BT brigade. All similar to what was done in the latter stage of the last Qubec referendum when yes were leading.
For goodness sake do they really think we are all stupid, I suppose someone may believe them but hell should these same people actually have mortgages? We still have the Scottish Building Society and perhaps we all should be investing there now. I expect that in an independent Scotland we will find business even more willing to lend money than they do presently specially when they find out who actually has the money.
Without a formal currency union where would the authority for the Bank of England to set interest rates in Scotland come from? Is it the same land of fiction that would prevent banks in an independent Scotland printing Sterling backed notes just as they do now. the rUK couldn’t even remove their status as legal tender because, it might come as a shock to them, that status doesn’t exist now. The right to print them is regulated under Scottish Laws which on independence would completely be in the hands of Holyrood.
Sums time. That increase makes it sound like we will have Wonga levels of interest on our mortgages.
It should be obvious by now, the main assault is to be the pound in your pocket – Scotland can’t keep it and pensions will stumble, while mortgages and food prices will rise.
orri says: Without a formal currency union where would the authority for the Bank of England to set interest rates in Scotland come from?
Formalness doesn’t matter. The Bank of England would be the central bank of GBP and would set the base rate. Any mortgages in GBP would be based off that.
At least the Scotland Office statement uses the qualifier ‘could’. Osborne has obviously picked a figure out of thin air and intends to scare the life out of undecideds with it.
Ach, I just think they are not too good at sums, our sums that is. We’ve had Wee Dougie Alexander on VAT, Osborne looking like Robin Hood’s Sheriff of Nottingham as he reported to the Arch Inquisitor, Davidson. Now it is mortgage payments. And in today’s i paper an article forecasting a substantial drop in home ownership with, yes, a corresponding rise in private lets.I’d wager the letting rate sums will be more accurate.Now which business and political sector will benefit from private letting? And which sector will suffer?
Scottish banks couldn’t print GBP without authorisation from the central bank. They could print a Scottish currency’s notes though, which could be fixed 1-to-1 with GBP. That’s a different thing entirely though.
Those self-obsessed, anal retentive southern people still have failed to grasp what is actually going on, now, in Scotland; they’ll wake up on 19Sep to a brand new world and wonder how it happened.
The right to print them is regulated under Scottish Laws which on independence would completely be in the hands of Holyrood.
Neat. We should pass laws that allow us to print USD as well. That would come in handy.
Gosh, if we can’t print our own notes what’s going to happen to season ticket sales down Govan way given that plastic cards and internet transactions are already rules out?
It’s an exciting day isn’t it, the PM being in town and all that. I remember Churchill’s funeral, Maggie at Hampden. Is this another of those days we’ll recall for ever more? Will we remember those inspirational words he’ll deliver to us?
Text from a chum this morning, now a confirmed Yes after a year of hard work. K’ching.
Per that second link:
“Appearing before Scots MPs alongside Sir Nicholas MacPherson, Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, Mr Osborne was asked about notes printed by the Scottish banks such as the Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of Scotland. He said: “They wouldn’t exist any more.””
This is a serious risk which demands immediate answers from the SNP. There are over 300 million Scottish banknotes currently in circulation. As matter cannot be created or destroyed, the only way for these notes to cease to exist is by their mass turning into energy and dissipating. Each note weighs about 1 gramme, which is equivalent to about 22 kilotons of TNT – greater than the yield of the Hiroshima bomb.
Thus, if Scotland were to become independent, immediately 300 million Hiroshima bombs would detonate across the country, which would be DISASTROUS for the housing market.
Is George trying to tell us that our houses will be worth more in an independent Scotland?
You’re doing sterling work there Rev! When you post their lies and misinformation it helps to normalise things.
Cameron is going to be staying over tonight and Sky said he might even wear a kilt! More votes for Yes!
Just heard about Farming4Yes. Doing a great job and a hard one especially in Fife! Come on we can do it!
(E = MC^2. If M is 1 gramme, E is 9e13 joules, which is ~22kilotonnes of TNT.)
So if “Scottish” banks are backed by the BoE, we’ll all ave the same rates across the border.
And if “Scottish” banks aren’t backed by the BoE (ie sterlingisation, or Scottish currency) then they’re dependent on other sources for their funds, which could be [ass-pull figure] more expensive?
And what restrictions would there be on “rUK” banks lending to customers in Scotland? Any?
Prime Minister What is it Scots most cherish that we should attack?
Chancellor Money. They are well known mean with it.
Prime Minister Perfect. They will fear their whole world at risk.
“this is how little the Unionist parties think of you. This is how stupid they think you are.”
Indeed. And they may yet (God forbid) be right.
If they are, post September any lingering murmurs of ‘wha daur meddle wi’ us’, ‘canny Scot’ and ‘we can still rise now’ will be a sick and hollow joke..
I fear Gideons used the same kiddies calculator that makes a happy smile every time the national debt of the UK goes up along with a loud MOOOOOOOOOOOOOO noise
Sometime i wonder if its like Anchorman autocue and the advisers just put in silly comments or claims to see if the walking mouth evn comprehends what he or she is claiming.
O/T, but I love that David Cameron felt it necessary to inform us that he will be ‘spending the night in Scotland.’ Such respect, such commitment to the union.
So … thats £400 extra per month…. so that means a mortgage of £100,000 the interest rate would be 7.6% as against 5% at the moment…. so… I would suggest that ALL scots holding English building society mortgages simply stop paying…. and let them all take ALL of us to court…. then we could stop this English only mortgage providers… and encourage Scots companies to take over… also… by the time these court cases came to court the providers would themselves be suffering…. if they want to play with fire… or the Scots democratic rights…
By my calculations, Osborne is saying mortgage interest rates will go up 4% (nearly doubling).
Training Day says:
“…post September any lingering murmurs of ‘wha daur meddle wi’ us’, ‘canny Scot’ and ‘we can still rise now’ will be a sick and hollow joke.”
Which is something ordinary No voters don’t appreciate. They think No means status quo. Either result, the status quo is history. No voters need to be told exactly what No actually means.
Where will Cameron be staying the night. Maybe a few of you guys down there should make your presence felt with a demonstration and some placards reading “Tories go home ” of *UCK OFF SCAMERON”
Looks like Cameron is well prepared for his trip to Scotlandshire. Oh how the English love us all!!!!!!
http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/politics/politics-headlines/cameron-gets-injections-for-trip-to-scotland-2014051586602
Sooooo, the £1,700 increase in mortgages didn’t work so well eh? Right, I’m going to make it at least, at least, er…
£4,500 chancellor?
Yes, that sounds about right. Thank you Sir Nicholas.
I used to be all in favour of a Currency Union however this position is now changing as I rapidly turn against the idea.
I simply no longer trust Downing Street, The Treasury, or the rest of Whitehall, nor do I believe anything emanating from their mouths of any who work there. The more the scaremongering continues, the more I want a clean break from all their nonsense.
In my humble opinion, their behaviour is all to do with their fear of losing the fiscal transfers from Scotland. They don’t want to have to explain to rUK electorate how they lied about Scotland being a scrounger and subsidy junkie over the last few decades.
yesterdays article about vote no borders suggested catching haggis , which led me to fancy having haggis for my tea today after reading osbournes outpourings im having mince .
When you have world leading, and Nobel Laureate economists, describing the U.K Government’s position on a currency union with Scotland as “nonsensicle” and “farcical” the simple question is, who do you believe? A part-time towel re-folder, or universally respected figures in the field of finance. As Mervyn King the former Governor of the Bank of England said to Alex Salmond last year, ” They will say one thing before the Referendum, but after a Yes vote they will say something completely different”. And I still believe that their, the Treasury, get out phrase, is the one used by the Permanent Secretary, Sir Nicholas MacPherson, when he said, “At the present time”. On September, 19th, everything will change, permanently, and does anybody really think that with the Conservatives fighting a General Election in 2015 they will go to the country with the slogan,”We’re the party that cost the “English” economy billions of pounds, and hundreds of thousands of “English” jobs. Aye, right.
yep we stupid contry bumkin vote no save the union lol.
@Training Day “This is how stupid they think you are.”
Indeed. And they may yet (God forbid) be right.”
BBC Scotland only has an audience of 1 million a day and the very fact that their watching makes them stupid.
DOOMED! We’re ALL DOOOOOMED!!!
AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUGGGGGGGGGGGGGGHHHH!!!!!
Training Day
“…post September any lingering murmurs of ‘wha daur meddle wi’ us’, ‘canny Scot’ and ‘we can still rise now’ will be a sick and hollow joke.”
And if there is a NO vote on 18th Sept, “Flower of Scotland” should banned.
It should be made a criminal offence for anyone to sing or play that song ever again.
We would need to write a new anthem, based on the cowardly act of voting against Scottish Independence.
Perhaps they think we all have public expense accounts, live in mansions and can afford to spend over £21K on VATable goods every year?
Good to see that David Cameron is coming up to put some boot about, though. But into whom? http://logicsrock.blogspot.co.uk/2014/05/david-cameron-puts-boot-into-better.html
This was always predicted. With 4 months left we will be bombarded with the same despicable nonsense. This is the final assault by the BT brigade. All similar to what was done in the latter stage of the last Qubec referendum when yes were leading.
Exactly, over the next 2-3 months it is going to get really silly. You really ain’t seen nothing yet. They have already given up on those recently decide to vote YES. This fanatical attack is designed to halt the tide, to stop YES advancing any more. Hold the ground, chaps.
By mid August, when it seems it still has not worked, and it is getting really close, guess what their nuclear option is?
DEVO MAX (with bells).
“We wanted a second question all along!”
I kid you not.
Yeah, its a circle they are having some difficulty in squaring.
As part of a political union, Scotland’s electorate are trusted and capable. Our resources and economy, in the ‘right’ hands of course, solid and dependable. In an independent Scotland our resources, economy and electorate become untrustworthy and a risk too far.
That is what they think of us.
We’re fine so long as we don’t get ideas above our station.
Remember folks this view of ‘the most successful union ever’ is endorsed by all three main parliamentary parties. Osborne, Balls and Alexander believe you, the Scottish electorate, to be incapable and untrustworthy on your own.
Callum says
“No, they are absolutely right.”
Bing!
got it in a nutshell exactly what I was thinking but you probably put it better than I could have.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/business-consumer/mortgages-in-scotland-among-most-affordable-1543581
The average monthly mortgage payment in Scotland, according to this Daily Record article (quoting Lloyds) is £424. George says they’ll go up by £5400 per year, which is £450 per month. So mortgages are going to more than double in price, despite our housing market being a lot less overheated than down south and, please God, a government less determined to pump the housing market up and more willing to build social housing.
That’s the man in charge of our national finances, who either can’t do arithmetic or doesn’t understand the concept of supply and demand. The only alternative explanation is that he’s pulled a number out of his backside (or maybe wee Dougie Alexander’s backside, since £450 is the same key idiotic number) to try and scare us and doesn’t actually care whether what he tells us is true or not. But a key member of Her Majesty’s Government would never deliberately mislead her subjects, would he?
So for pensioners and those who own outright this would be a very good thing. Their savings rates will rocket.
Also houses will become more affordable for those looking to buy.
Don’t worry I don’t believe his pish. I’m merely pointing out things work both ways.
If YES continues to advance, I expect DEVO MAX to be presented as a great way to save the union.
It may sound pathetic, but things are getting desperate for BT.
They really don’t want to lose Scotland.
Even the die-hard tories will soon be saying:
“Give them their bloody devo-max!”
As I understand it, the average mortgage in Scotland is just over £5000. So an increase of £5400 is indeed more than doubling of the present mortgage rate circa 4.5%.
How does Gideon reach this figure. My understanding is that his argument goes along these lines.
1) There will be no Currency Union
2) rUK will not share any Assets with Scotland.
3) Scotland will then refuse to accept their share of the debt, any will start life debt free but will have to borrow money against future taxes.
4) Scotland will then be considered to be in default and would therefore have to issue bonds paying around 6-7%
5) At least 75% of this rate would be passed on to the house purchaser by the banks. Add this to the existing rate of 4.5% and you have a mortgage rate around 9% or about £5400 per year more for the average householder.
What he fails to mention is
1) Under Maggie mortgage rates topped out at over 15% and we still survived.
2) Interest rates are time dependent. They can fall as well as rise. If the markets perceived that Scotland could pay its bonds then any high start rate would fall rapidly (within 3-6 months) as the country’s rating improved.
3) with North sea oil revenues starting to pick up again in 2016 and reaching £8-10B by 2020 any period of pain would be short lived.
4) It would be worth a few years of austerity under a Scottish government (of whatever political persuasion) to be rid of Westminster rule.
Tasmanian – Brilliant, thanks so much. I’m still laughing.
How much would your ‘average’ mortgage have to be in the first place to reach £5400 per annum in an increase.
As of 2013 – The findings, from the Moneywise Consumer Opinion Survey of 20,000 people, reveal that the average outstanding UK home loan stands at £95,883.
Taking that at say 2.99% rate, thats around around £2867 a year or £239 interest a month.
To increase this yearly cost by £5400, a monthly increase of £450 per month within a calendar year, would need an interest rate increase of nearly 7%
Within such a tight timescale, really George?
By the way, theres that £450 figure again, its handy for Douglas’ VAT and Gideons Mortgage Interest. Coincidence or back of the same fag packet?
@Nana Smith – be really funny if Cameron caught the Yes virus!
My my, yet another disaster in the making, has their ever been a country so doomed at every step on the road to independence, as Scotland.
But if you want light at the end of the tunnel you only have to say to yourself, if we are such a magnet for disaster WHY does Westminster want to hold on to us so hard ?
Surely our capacity for potential calamity would make any other country want to dump/get rid/flee from/avoid at all costs. So why does Westminster try to do the opposite !!!
Lets take a guess, maybe just maybe Osborne, Cameron, Alexander’sX2, Miliband, Balls, Lamont, Davidson and Rennie are all lying shites. Just a thought.
Luigi says:
guess what their nuclear option is?
DEVO MAX (with bells).
“We wanted a second question all along!”
I kid you not.
I agree, it may be their last option if they think they have lost.
However, if it is so clear that they have lost, it means a significant majority of Scots have correctly assessed that they just can’t be trusted. So, that same majority won’t believe they are genuine. Too late!
Saw Pompeii last night. Enjoyable tosh, replete with useful metaphors.
It helps that the hero is an orphan (from North Brittania’s Horse-People tribes) called ‘Celt’.
Looks like Gordon Brown the treasury and George Porgy all share the same calculator.
Someone gonae tell them its either no working right or sir Nic is pressing all the wrong buttons
Criag P says
“O/T, but I love that David Cameron felt it necessary to inform us that he will be ‘spending the night in Scotland.’ Such respect, such commitment to the union.”
I hope he’s brought a spare (London) oxygen tank with him I would be a shame if he turned blue due to not being able to breathe in the low oxygen levels in Scotland which will only be restored when we get our next shipment of (real ) air from England which is now overdue,
held up at the border maybe? 🙂
Same scare tactic by Labour in 2007 against the SNP. Somehow there would be a £5000 tax increase. It was on billboards all over Scotland. It didn’t happen and Labour looked foolish. They were copying the UK Tory election posters of 1992. It seems they are being recycled again in 2014.
SCOTLAND HAS 2nd MOST AFFORDABLE MORTGAGES in UK
According to LLoyds, you know, the English bank, Scots enjoy the 2nd lowest mortgage payments as a proportion of disposable earnings at 22% compared to NI at 20% and UK average of 28%.
So even if the cost of a mortgage did go up, a mortgage is significantly more affordable than rUK anyway.
No surprise then that London at 36% is the highest. Maybe the real fear is for London’s costs going up, not Scotland’s?
LLoyds Source: http://tinyurl.com/mm9oefo
@Alex Beveridge
‘At the Present Time’ is a phrase that will be used whether its YES or No. I expect to hear it many times from Unionist Scots when those Devo max obligations get called in following any No vote…”Of course we would love to look at further devolution but its not a priority for the people of the UK at this present time”.
CriagP @ 09.50
So barl will be making up a room for him?,
it’ll be the only place he can feel secure in,
I hope the screws leave his wardrobe door open when its lights out, and he’s kept awake all night wondering what monsters could come out of it.
HERE BE DRAGONS
There have been times in the past wee while I’ve commented that BT have found new barrels to scrape the arse out of!
Now I see they’ve changed tack and have found a supply of abandond used toilet bowls to rasp into and they really stink!
PLUS…there’ll be nae mince n tatties.
Is everybody happy.
To assist the Unionists and Westminster, we Scots are in the process of accepting miserly weekly state pensions from a foreign nation state when they hold my N.I.C.`s that have gathered accrued compound interest every week since 1963..
Westminster keeps the real money – our money – and repays our lifetime donations via the weekly wampum known as the state pension.
Are we really this gullible in Scotland – after – our M.P.`s tell us that we drop off the perch long before fellow pensioners – daaan saaff.
Average Male Lifespan in Labour held Glasgow East = 54 years.
Zero state pension at 60.or 65. or 68. or 75.?
Who gets the benefits of their N.I.C.`s.?
NOT THEM. NOT US.
Devo max on the table to avert disaster? Mibbe. But who’s going to deliver it? The Tories? In that case, we’d all have to a) vote No, then b) vote Tory in 2015. No chance.
Labour? So we vote No, then vote Labour, then Labour lose. Or, admittedly a long shot, Labour win, but their MPs (Scots and English) will vote against it, if it ever got as far as being included in the Queen’s Speech.
Too late everyone. For Devo Max to have worked, all the parties would have had to agree to it and get it past their conferences and have then put it onto the ballot paper.
There’s no new initiative coming out from BT with only four months to go.
Basically they are saying that we are so poor, wee and stupid that we would instantly have double digit interest rates…(savers would be pleased though).
If this did happen what would this do? Well it would mean we would not have run away house prices. What good is a 4% interest rate if a three bedroomed semi costs £450,000.
Casualties of War :
Somewhere in Scotland, someone is looking at their baby and thinking “You’re getting kissed by the Prime Minister today!”
“Mortgage rates would continue to be based on the Bank of England base rate”
Notionally true, but since the base rate dropped to 0.5%, increasingly irrelevant in practice.
We’ll still be using the pound, whether it’s in a currency union, whether it’s sterlingisation or whether its technically a separate Scottish pound, which will continue to be called sterling and pegged to the UK pound 1:1.
A defacto currency union even if it technically isn’t one.
For the average Joe there will be no difference.
Scottish sterling will continue to be printed and used interchangeably with UK sterling in Scotland, Scottish notes will still be viewed with suspicion in rUK.
Whichever route is taken we won’t have any less say in the operation of our currency than we do now.
My mortgage is with Birmingham and Midshire, will they still want my money?
Sir Nicholas MacPherson, Permanent Secretary to the Treasury
You need to watch,scottish affairs committee,Sir Nic couldn’t wait to get his trash Scotland facts out,it was like he was on a leash.Even as the hole got deeper in dubious facts of evidence,he kept on going.in the summing up I expected him to say fish suppers will cost £50 quid,if Scotland votes yes.
the full transcript will prob be up in 24 hours
http://www.parliament.uk/business/committees/committees-a-z/commons-select/scottish-affairs-committee/news/currency-options/
AS – “Currency Union? Yes John that’s what we’ll tell Scameron and Gideon. Just like last time they’ll bite like a starving shark.”
JS – “What’s the plan Alex?”
AS “Same as last time. They will not give us what they think we want and we’ll have to settle for what we really wanted all along plus a few extras that we NEVER for a moment thought we’d get.”
Given the size, and depth of our grassroots campaign, I wonder if there’s a ‘Yes Banker’ (that sounds like an insult !)of the actuarial calibre, who could enlighten us on the cost of a typical mortgage, given a Yes result.
Maybe someone recently jettisoned by the City could oblige.
Back of a fag packet workings wouldn’t do.
Crowdfund an unemployed friend ?
Where are the Eton boys workings anyway..
The more I think about it, the more I think the BT crowd really haven’t thought this bit through at all. One of their gripes with Europe is that we don’t have a properly functioning single market in the services and financial sectors. Wouldn’t showing how easily they could work across their northern border to have a healthy, fully functional, mutually beneficial financial system across two independent countries be a shining beacon for how the rest of Europe needed to follow Albion’s lead?
@Faolie says 10:37 am
If things are as you say, which I agree with, I think EBC will show Cameron, Clegg and Milliband lined up to explaining to us fearties “vote no and we are all agreed you will get much stronger powers for the Scottish Parliament. “We promise, we really really really promise, don’t we guys!
Whatever that means.
@Defo
Take one finger
Lick it
Place in air. Pause.
Pick up pencil
Write down first thought that comes into your mind and stick it in a fancy binder and call it a projection
There, saved us some crowdsourcing cash on an Eton banker.
A quick Google and 2 mins of Arithmetic and I’d done the calcs already posted above myself. With the £1700 figure the average monthly Scottish mortgage repayment would increase from £424 (2013 figure) to £565. Using the £5400 figure would more than double it to £874.
For once, wouldn’t you love to have to see them justify these types of claims with a proper breakdown and explanation!
Of course they won’t as that would expose the ridiculousness of the figures and the MSM will happily just publish whatever headline figure they pluck out of the air with no attempt to question it.
Good news for David is should he want a souvenir of his sleep-over in Scotland ASDA is selling a Saltire onsie in just his size!
@ Kenny 10:19
Osborne based it on the average mortgage for a flat in Kensington, you silly billy!
🙂
Saw Pompeii last night. Enjoyable tosh
Rather resembles the No campaign in content.
“Refuse all sane argument and the very earth shall explode and consume thee … all!”
I’ll ask again, what legislative force would a minimum lending rate set by the BoE have in Scotland without any legislative force to back it up? And yes Sterling note printed in Scotland would not be legal tender in the rUK but that’s really only a problem if you want to carry huge amounts of them with you on a trip outside of Scotland. The rUK really wouldn’t be in any position to prevent them being recognised as legal tender within Scotland.
I suppose that these extra mortgage costs will be on houses that have plummeted in value.
John King – if Cameron was serious about holding on to Scotland, he would be moving himself and the entire cabinet to Edinburgh for the next four months. Now that would be a commitment to the union, he would be here on the ground, getting a better feel for the debate, it would a statement of his priorities, and it would impress us natives – even if folk didn’t like Cameron, it would show commitment and garner respect.
But what we are getting instead is a one-night stand.
Absolute must read today. WARNING – Do not have any liquids within reach at time of reading:
http://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2014/05/15/the-four-whored-men-of-the-acrapolypse/
Is it really wise to be shackled to a Westmidden led BofE, when all the signs say that there is a house price bubble brewing, the like of which we possibly haven’t seen in a generation ? Russian exodus would be a potential pin. Who would suffer most if a financial transactions levy became the global orthodoxy?
With the bubbles swelling mainly being driven by almost exponential rises in the heart of The Establishment, £750/day recently quoted for Chelsea (i think), aren’t we better of hedging our bets and looking towards the ECB in the longer term. Ask yourself, which base rate will be lower in 5 years time. 10 years..
My Scottish £ is on it not being our present one.
DOOMED, I tell you! DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMED!!!!
DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED!!!!
Sorry for the repeat post. Just warming up for a stint on a BT street stall.
If there is such a thing.
There is Lies, Damned Lies and State Tactics.
The BofE and the politicians have already stated that when unemployment falls to 7% interest rates will rise. They were somewhat embarrassed because that figure has been reached, according to their daft way of measuring unemployment. The rate has not increased because there are elections on the way. But Mr Carney has said that this will be happening soon, and he was careful to say “gradually” in order not to frighten the horses
Once again we see that what is going to happen in the UK is presented as an outcome of an independence vote, and this is becoming a very familiar tactic. The question which should be asked is how much are they to rise in the UK, and why
The link between interest rates and unemployment is there for all to see. This is a direct consequence of their theory of economics and no matter what they tell you in other parts of the forest there is NO intention to pursue full employment. Neoliberals are opposed to full employment: it is not high by accident.
@ Desimond
Who said he they had to be Eton educated ?
I take your point re accurately predicting the future, but what this lot need are some fancy looking figures, with reasoning and workings rammed down their throats.
I couldn’t give two hoots if beelzebub himself was the author. Means to an end, and with us up against an enemy who will resort to anything ?
That reminds me, they wouldn’t stoop sow low as to sabotage the Games ticketing, would they ?
It’s a bit obnoxious of Osborne to state the figures in Sterling – the currency we will not be allowed to use.
Other than Gordon Brown, is anyone falling for this crap?
I too am coming round to an exit of Sterling as soon as we can fairly and transparently agree a financial settlement with rUK.
I’m sure it was reported that Scottish government debt interest rates could be between 0.8% and 1.65% higher than the UK Treasury’s rates.
So even taking the worst case scenario of 1.65% and assuming that somehow that rate was fully passed on (though there is no clear reason why) to mortgage lending it would result in an increase of about £130/month or £1560/yr.
@G H Graham,
Please don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story.:)
It might have been ‘reported’ mocha. That, you must know by now doesn’t make it true.
Which country would have a better debt/gdp ratio, or exports/debt ratio for that matter?
Which returns a surplus, and who is in terminal deficit?
@Defo
We already have 2 Nobel Economists on our side.
Truth, facts and figures are totally ignored by the other (Govt and media). Says more about them than us of course.
The only economic concerns we need have is how much is the champagne in Scotland friendly Aldi\Lidl on Sept 19th 🙂
Actually your government does matter when determining your credit-worthiness and hence your interest rate. Your government’s policies will determine how much tax you pay, your employment prospects, and all kinds of other important things.
after the Kyles and Isles have had their Referendum Ballots counted and Scotland has declared Independence, I will be RECLAIMING all my taxes and N.I.C.`s from H.M.R.C. PLUS the Accrued Compound Interest.
However long I last – after Sept. – those monies will be mine.
Not “BamCam`s” or Mibbeland`s. Mine.
It will not be awarded to Salmond or Holyrood after they, with zero mandate, Rescinded Scotland`s Claim of Right to recover those £3 Trillion stolen between 1974 and 2010..
No foreign nation state will be allowed to steal my money and replace that huge capital sum with a paltry weekly wampum – A.K.A. -the state pension.
When they threaten to bankrupt Scotland, I am more than happy to return the favour.
Who is bankrupt – then.?
galamcennalath 10:24am
faolie 10:37
I agree, it is far too late for devomax. It will not, and cannot be delivered.
But, what I think will happen is that the Labouratories will eventually pretend that if we vote NO, devomax will become a distinct possibility. Of course, this is all nonsense. If they wanted to dupe us with a false promise of devomax, they had a far better chance succeeding with the second question, which they quickly rejected without even thinking it through. They could have won the referendum with all sorts of promises, and then thrown devomax into the long grass by discussing in parliamentary commissions etc it ad finitum.
They could have won the referendum easily with a second question. All they had to do was seriously consider devomax (or pretend to seriously consider it). They did not even have to actually deliver it. It is far too late for that now though (my heart bleeds).
Unfortunately, the latest ruse, the great Devo nano deception, has gone down like a lead balloon. So now, the subtle hints of something even better will begin, leading to crude promises and finally, as support for YES continues to rise, panic will lead to downright lies that we will get devomax if we vote NO.
Of course, this is all nonsense. If they wanted to dupe us with a false promise of devomax, they had a far better chance succeeding with the second question, which they quickly rejected without even thinking it through. They could have won the referendum with all sorts of promises, and then thrown devomax into the long grass by discussing in parliamentary commissions etc it ad finitum.
Of course they couldn’t: that would have meant telling lies. They would never do that!!
*looks at article ATL*
Oh ….wait….:(
As an independent Scotland will be the only country in the world incapable of printing money, maybe we should use coloured buttons?
I fear the blue and white ones may be the most valuable. So-called Pearly Kings & Queens (I personally suspect they are not actually monarchs) may become instant billionaires.
Just flagging up a weakness in coloured buttons currency option.
As Adrian B says, check out Wee Ginger Dug today. The funniest thing I have read in ages!
Using the pound seems obvious to me, don’t scare the voters who might vote Yes and when there is plenty time, give the reasons why we should have our own currency.
Wouldn’t it be great changing our currency for UK pounds in England.
I wouldn’t be able to stop myself from smiling and feeling just a wee bit smug when we get £1.50 for our Scots pound!
Surely with all the unionist ‘heavyweights’ now involved, the discourse has improved to a ‘new and improved’ level. Or……mmmmmmm
As an independent Scotland will be the only country in the world incapable of printing money, maybe we should use coloured buttons?
Plenty of countries in the world can’t print money that they use because they use someone else’s currency. It’s not because they’re “too stupid” to print it – they don’t have the right to. Not everything is an excuse to jut your chin out angrily at a perceived insult.
naebd
Not everything is an excuse to jut your chin out angrily at a sarcastic insult.
Maybe you have the inside story and are aware that Scotland will be banned from continuing to use its existing printing facilities.
@orri
It’s not about legislative force; the base rate is the interest rate that the Bank of England actually charges for short term lending to banks. If, under whatever system is in place after independence, Scottish banks are making use of that lending then that is the interest rate they will have to pay.
Legal tender questions and the name of a Scottish currency are red herrings. If Scotland has its own currency then Scotland has its own currency, with its own rules, structures, and base rate. It doesn’t have to take any notice of what rUK does, beyond setting policy that supports the interests of the Scottish people. If a higher rate than in the rUK would be better for Scotland it can set the rate higher, and lower if lower is better.
House purchasers and sellers have much to gain from Scottish Independence
When asked, major UK mortgage lenders will confirm that the Scottish housing market is a lower risk to them than the English one. We have not suffered helter skelter price variations which is a cyclical feature of the Home Counties. Both the average amount and the percentage loan-to-value of Scottish mortgages are lower. Repossessions as a percentage of UK lenders’ mortgage books are lower in Scotland and the losses incurred proportionately smaller than what pertains in the South.
Having attended the Council of Mortgage Lenders’ Conferences in London their representatives never tire of telling Scots present that they know they are less exposed in the Scottish housing market and that our regulatory regimes for solicitors are more robust. Yet when they are challenged to reflect this in their lending criteria and lending terms their response is that as they operate on a UK level and there is no room for meaningful regional variations.
For anyone to seriously suggest that lenders would seek to increase mortgage interest rates above those in the rUK when Scotland becomes independent flies in the face of the market which is both now risk averse and will compete for the low risk Scottish market.
http://www.businessforscotland.co.uk/scottish-housing-market-strengthened-by-independence/
cRAIG p SAYS
“But what we are getting instead is a one-night stand.”
Wow,
now I just feel dirty and used.
🙁
@orri:
The BoE base rate doesn’t have any “legislative force” as it is. It’s just that since the BoE is the “lender of last resort”, their base rate is (notionally) the rate from which banks calculate the cost of their own borrowing, and they’re not normally going to lend you money cheaper than they can borrow it themselves, because then they’d be losing money on the deal.
However, back in the days when the base rate was higher, it was perfectly normal for banks to offer mortgages at a discount to the base rate for the first couple of years, because they reckoned they could make the money back in subsequent years, since most people don’t bother to renegotiate their mortgage at the end of the discount period.
Nowadays, it’s actually interbank lending rates which have the most impact on mortgage rates, because interbank lending is much more flexible. This is one of the reasons why central bank interest rate cuts are much less effective tools of monetary policy than they used to be, and why such efforts are often described as “pushing on a string”.
“Maybe you have the inside story and are aware that Scotland will be banned from continuing to use its existing printing facilities.”
Scotland won’t be banned from doing that because that’s a utterly moronic claim to make (and a really dumb way to try and dismiss the problem).
Will Scotland be authorised to print another country’s currency? That’s for the other country to decide. If that weren’t the case, we could just print USD, Swiss Francs, Euros – WHOOP-DE-DOO, WE’D BE RICH!
The point you keep missing is that Scottish banknotes are not readily accepted in the rUK. It really makes no difference to us in Scotland as it’s up to us to decide whether we see them as being legal tender or not. So what if we need to get BoE notes for our trip past the border guards and onwards into fortress England, I generally just get money from a machine that issues them here or at the first cash machine I come to.
In addition Osborne’s an idiot in that if somehow Westminster can force the de-sterlingisation of Scotland through then there’d no longer be any need for those notes to be backed by an equivalent deposit in the BoE. In other words the assets held by the BoE would reduce.
The point you keep missing is that Scottish banknotes are not readily accepted in the rUK.
Who’s missing that – by the way I’ve never had problems using Scottish notes in England on the various occasions I’ve needed to.
Talking about Scottish banknotes usage in England, and changing money to use on trips to England is a huge decoy non-issue. It’s used by smart people to cloud the real issues with the various “Plans B” of Scottish independence. Apparently it works quite well as a tactic. The real issues are transaction costs, exchange rates, lenders of last resort, not this economically illiterate pish about being banned from using our printing presses.
naebd
Scotland already prints a currency. There is a viable option to continue printing it with some wording changes. That, for me, is the best longer term option. Hopefully I can have an opinion.
There are also options of formal currency union and informally adopting a currency.
I’m not suggesting we fraudulently print the currency of another country. Why would we do that?
George Osborne’s prediction of a significant rise in Scottish market interest rates do not seem to tie in to economic reality. The mortgage rate has been very well explained above by Bob at 12:33
The rating of Scotland’s sovereign debt has also been covered by two international rating agencies. Neither would appear to suggest a major hike in Scotland’s ability to raise finance in international markets. The rating agencies claim to take into account a host of factors when arriving at a rating.
theitalianjob says ” this is the final assault by the bt brigade” This is by no means the final assault. It will get much worse & dare I say more threatening. I wish this was the final assault by No Scotland. We ain’t seen nothing yet
@Griminish
Excellent; Scotland has its own currency and gets to set monetary and fiscal policy that benefits the people of Scotland.
Rather mean, but okay then, if that’s how they play it.
Perfectly reasonable.
Borrow? In this scenario Scotland has just instituted a new currency, so who is it borrowing from? And where on earth did they get this new currency? It didn’t exist until right now, when the new independent Scottish government created it.
The whole idea of Sovereign governments ‘borrowing’ is a fiction; a hang over from the days of the gold standard. At that time governments still had to create currency before they could tax or borrow, but the borrowing was real since governments also had to acquire gold – or US Dollars under the Gold Exchange Standard – before they could issue currency.
Westminster has already taken full responsibility for UK debt, and especially, but not only, with no assets for Scotland nobody, or nobody who matters, will consider this a default.
It won’t have to borrow, but if it chooses to issue bonds anyway it will control the interest rate, as all sovereign countries do.
The interest rate paid on government bonds has nothing to do with mortgage rates. Mortgages and other bank lending are based on the rate paid by banks to the central bank for short term lending. In the UK it’s the Bank of England base rate.
Naebd. What part of banknotes having no status as legal tender under Scots law don’t you get? Banknotes are only legal tender in England and only BoE ones. As it only deals with payment of debt then it’s not directly applicable to buying every thing although places that serve first like pubs and cafes and perhaps taxis and petrol stations are all instances where you can be in debt. The punchline to the story is that they don’t have to accept Scottish notes as they are not legal tender. Don’t let it upset you too much as not even BoE notes are legal tender in Scotland, we take coins and that’s all. So to repeat Osborne can’t remove the legal standing of Scottish notes within Scotland as a form of trade because it doesn’t exist.
As to printing actual BoE forgeries, no one is actually proposing that.
For Max Devo Max – vote YES 🙂
About that 7% yield, I though that was over the lifetime of the bond which is more than a year.
This is just the start folks.
We’ve been expecting this ,maybe surprised that its the same old scares , so calm down a bit and take a wee breath.
This is just the start.
Personally over the last few months i have winced at the scares and smears. Occasionally , after a wee read on Wings or Bella etc , I feel better because I am not alone. Every page i read often bring tears of laughter , even a little sadness but never no matter what will i change my mind. I will vote YES .
IT’s the feeling of being part of something that gives me hope and strength , Knowing that there are so many who feel as i do and that alone is more than enough to counter any scares.
I’m not one for figures , and often dont understand the complexity of some of the arguments , but one thing i am certain of is that others, like a lot of you folks, do understand and i get the message. You are getting through , I’m proof.
We expected this. It’s what we have spoken about for months now. And the scares will get MUCH worse.
But we can keep pushing, talking , explaining and we will get there . This a grassroots campaign none have witnessed here since the poll tax and that took years to win. We dont have to wait years tho, in a few months we can change everything and boy will that be a day to remember.
Keep faith in each other.
UNITED WE ARE INVINCIBLE .
I now the tide seems to be turning in our favour but…Where are the Yes people? Why are they not shouting from the roof tops about this ‘fact’ that is a lie? Why is nobody in the media challenging him on tv, radio etc. with the exception of the real grass roots here and the like? Even the SNP don’t seem to have much of a voice.
Maybe I am just not seeing it down here in Devon, I really hope so,but I am worried that folks that just pick up a paper or listen to the Beeb won’t ever get to know the truth.
Rev we need you on the front line. What about starting up the Independent Independence Party?What about a radio station? There are so many in Scotland with no access to the Web.
Sorry, just blethering now out of frustration!
Average rise of £450 per month… interesting to know the average monthly mortgage payment is £424 in Scotland (as of Jan 2013)
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/business-consumer/mortgages-in-scotland-among-most-affordable-1543581
It was a Tory team that last presided over a drastic and relatively rapid interest rate spike up to 15%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Wednesday
We should maybe also not forget the great foresight of Eddie George (then Deputy governor of the BoE) the day before Black Wednesday when famously suggested the worst was over:
“It’s been a bit of a battering but we’re still in there with our troops intact.”
TO-griminish and flimflamman;-
Wonderful depiction and exposition of the blatantly nonsensical and farcical rants from the girning tory toadies of Scottish labour M.P.`s, chief among whom are Ian
(eeyawn) Davidson,limply Roy etc. who could not disguise their delight whilst licking Osborne`s boots.
The worse the depiction from Osborne, the greater their grins.?
All forgiven ?
After Independence?
AYE – that`ll be – NEVER.
rev., help me out here.
In my grubby little paw I am clutching Ausie Wampum.
Printed by the Clydesdale Bank. A bank owned and controlled from a foreign, non-E.U. State – Australia.
Are we being flim-flammed by Bo.E.,BamCam,Ozzie or the Ausies.?
Are Ausies being kind to us, because I know the inglish Ozzie is being kinda kruel to kindred kith and kin.
KUNT.
Please delete last word of above post.
Can I replace “that vile word” – with – KNUTS LIKE KAMERON.
Tasmanian says:
15 May, 2014 at 9:42 am
Per that second link:
“Appearing before Scots MPs alongside Sir Nicholas MacPherson, Permanent Secretary to the Treasury, Mr Osborne was asked about notes printed by the Scottish banks such as the Royal Bank of Scotland and Bank of Scotland. He said: “They wouldn’t exist any more.””
Every single pound issued by Scottish banks is backed by cash in the Bank of England. At the moment that totals something in the region of four billion pounds. The notes will of course continue to exist.What will disappear,as far as Osborne is concerned, is the four billion pounds in the Bank of England which would have to be transferred to a Scottish Currency Authority or Scottish Central Bank
galamcennalath , I’m with you. How can we possibly reconcile with these “people” who will lie, cheat and steal in order to keep their perks.
Personally, the likes of Skeletor, Davidson and Lament should be chased out of the country on the 19th September.
Also, Scottish passports should be issued immediately on the proviso that if anybody wants to get involved in politics in this fair country, they should have a Scottish Passport and no other!
I saw a Better Together Stall at the Black Isle show last August.
Seen nothing else since.
Ah, Black Wednesday. The day I attended my first-ever SNP branch meeting.
Don’t worry I’ve worked out what he meant, he means a year as defined by Mr Alexander’s calendar.
I watched Osborne and Mcpherson’s performance (and that’s what it was) – it was disgraceful.
What made it worse was the ‘questioning’ from ‘Scottish’ Labour MP’s – it was like watching the odious Katie Hopkins interviewing the Mail’s Simon Heffer, with one simply feeding off the other’s lies, misinformation, and ignorance.
The ONLY serious question came from a LibDem who – after Osborne had smeared the dozens of fully independent internationally-acclaimed economists who agree with the currency union/BoE/Sterling proposals, and have ridiculed and challenged the Treasury’s ‘evidence’ – asked what Osborne thought about the Fiscal Commission Working Group that first recommended those proposals to the SG in Feb 2013. He looked confused, and then came up with :
“…. Professor Kay …” adding that Kay had said something about ‘Salmond’s (they aren’t) dollarisation plans’.
Professor Kay has nothing to do with the FCWG, and left the SG Council of Economic Advisors several years ago. This proved just how little Osborne knows about the SG’s case, who created those policies, and who supports them.
Any genuine Labour MP would have pounced (again) and torn Osborne to pieces – and proved his ignorance in the process. They just sat there like the hate-filled and dishonest Tory puppets they are.
It was a shameful performance from all concerned, and I have no doubt that it was all planned and rehearsed before the odious Davidson muttered ‘Order. Order’ !!
It was a gift for Labour, and they ignored it. I mean – just last week Professors Kay, McCrone, and Mcgregor agreed that within 10 – 15 years the UK/rUK was going to become another Greece because of the debt and growing housing bubble. As soon as Oborne mentioned Kay, they should have jumped all over Osborne, but they didn’t. Are they really so ignorant that they don’t know the truth ?
Or are they simply ignoring it ?
As for Mcpherson, well, he can no longer claim that he is ‘non-political’. he was even being fed information from BT’s Jim Gallagher. Gallagher was sitting front left of the witnesses – where they could watch each other, and Gallgher would tap a message on his device, and a minute later a ‘gofer’ would hand a piece of paper to Mcpherson – who would then add more ‘information’.
Watch it, and weep.
Meindevon – We ARE shouting. Thousands of us are out campaigning every week. There are hundreds of local groups organising debates and other public events.
Just last Saturday we had over 60 Yes volunteers delivering information, canvassing, and interacting with people of our High Street.
We’ll be at the local Harbour Festval on Saturday, and on the 29th we’ve organised a 4-speaker event in the local Academy school hall.
That’s typical of what’s going on – and the media ignores all of it.
Deliberately.
They don’t want people to know what’s happening and who’s behind it.
They don’t want people to know that YesScotland is NOT the SNP.
They don’t want people to know who is advising the SNP government.
They don’t want people to know anything about the genuinely grassroots YesScotland campaign, or any of the other pro-independence groups like National Collective, RIC, LFI, Business for Scotland, and many more.
That’s why you don’t hear anything down in Devon. Basically, with regard to the Yes campaign, our media has become a UK version of the Soviet-era Pravda.
That same media has tried to demonise Salmond and the SNP, and basically convinced the ignorant that anything and everything about the Yes campaign IS Salmond.
It’s shameful – but that’s the UK media – circa 2014.
The Tory Unionist Jihadist leader has spoken. So it must be true.(cue soundtrack, “Eldritch Witch like laughter”…)
@Eric D – Great posts agree with everything you said, the Scottish Affairs Committee is a circus.