Rogue bloopers
Posted on
September 04, 2013 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
Every single line a classic.
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And we know how that worked out eh?
@ Rev Stu – I want more, please Sir, I want more.
I don’t need a poll to tell me that YES will win next year. Just keeping my ears open to those I talk to tells me all I need to know and this is across all social spectrums.
Rev, did we ask the the referendum question? And where the hell is my wings t-shirt 🙂
Oh how nice it is to be reminded of the old Ostrich head in the sand approach Labour had to the polls in the lead up to the 2011 Holyrood election. Now I know everyone recognises me as being slow on the pick up these days but I’m pretty sure that the SNP won in 2011. Not only did they win but they won a majority which was, apparently, impossible to achieve.
Now you can call me cynical but I reckon Labour, by their current actions, are proving yet again that they have not moved on since losing the 2007 Holyrood election. This series of statements from Labour proved that in 2011 they were still going through their post 2007 losing blue phase.
I know all political parties go through a period of post election blues after losing an election but really! SIX years and counting is taking the biscuit!
‘This poll only takes account of those certain to vote so ignores huge swathes of the electorate.’
Funnily enough, it was only the people who voted that effected the outcome.
That nearly caught me out till I noticed the date.
Same Shit, Different Day!
“This particular pollster is notoriously unreliable in Scotland” – oh dear! We’ll have to remember that line the next time Ipsos Mori do a referendum poll.
SLAB: “The SNP are guilty of taking voters for granted!” 😀 😀
I just love this graph in my VI file.
It shows wonderfully how people say one thing, then do another because that’s what’s in their hearts.
Ok, actually they said clearly they’d do one thing (2009). Then in a moment of panic they said they’d not do that (2010). Then they took a deep breath and did it (2011).
I’m not sure it will be so dramatic this time round. Not in the space of weeks like 2011 anyway. Pity, as that would be a whole lot of fun, but I’ll certainly take it.
Interestingly, what is obvious from all the polls, is voting SNP has become normalised. That’s why polls continue to show them doing really well yet seemingly independence is ‘struggling’.
Voting Yes will be normalised soon enough (it was briefly in 2011 when Yes went ahead) and we’ll see that in the polls. It’s already there, just not being expressed. That’s a big reason for the current discrepancy.
O/T, sorry to do so so early in the thread Stu, but just read something that I had to share as it just wound me up…
In an article about Premier League transfers on the BBC Football website, found a classic example of English/ British conflation:
Buy British, but don’t pay premium prices
Prof Chris Anderson: It is a myth that British players carry a premium.We have analysed the prices of British players and what we found is that they are significantly cheaper than the rest.
You may not overpay for an English player on average, but it is true that we overpay for British players at the very top end.
The very best ones, those who play for England, tend to command more of a price than they should compared to other players who are playing on their level. But the average British player is cheaper than the average non-British player.
In the linked page “Analysed prices of British players” (my emphasis) the headline is “The Myth of the English Premium”….
Grrr!!!
Was actually just thinking to myself earlier that the only news I still go to the BBC for is football as “surely their bias can’t extend to that”….
SS, winning by a late surge from behind is one of these things that would only become “fun” in retrospect. Trust me on this.
Like you, I’ll take it whatever way it works out, but my nerves would really appreciate it if there was a nice clear Yes lead by mid-August and Bitter Together were working on their concession speeches.
Morag, my concern would be interference of ballot boxes by the state when it becomes obvious to them Yes will win.
but my nerves would really appreciate it if there was a nice clear Yes lead by mid-August
But then you’d be nervous of a last minute No surge…
🙂
There won’t be a last-minute No surge. You know why as well as I do.
I want to go to the polling station as a celebration, not in a state of utter nervous exhaustion.
“I don’t need a poll to tell me that YES will win next year. Just keeping my ears open to those I talk to tells me all I need to know and this is across all social spectrums.”
Likewise,I know two people who are voting “no”,one has a Tory voting father who’s a member of the OO (didn’t even try to convince her),the other is a middle age man who still thinks we’re to wee,to poor and under constant threat of attack from some unseen enemy waiting in a bank of haar off feckin Berwick,trying to convince him was akin to trying to cut down a tree with a bowl of custard.To a man and woman,everybody else I know or have spoke to are unequivocal “YES” voters.
We’ve all had enough.
@Morag – Amen!
I blame that nasty Alex Salmond for all this Labour unhappiness; I mean why did he need to bring up this separatist agenda referendum thingy. Who realy wanted it ?, just what will it achieve in terms of a social democratic agenda. What is wrong with us Scots can’t we just do what we always do and wait for the return of a Labour government to make things right ?
We are an ungrateful lot !!
Gordoz, I have a friend who says exactly that. He might, conceivably, vote Yes just to spite Cameron, and because he knows there is likely to be retribution if we vote No, but he really, really wanted to be left alone and blames Salmond for forcing the issue.
He even complains that nobody wanted the referendum, saying that the SNP were elected because Gray and Labour were so dire not because anyone wanted what was in their manifesto. I pointed out the opinion polls showing a majority in favour of having a referendum even if they weren’t all going to vote Yes, and he backed down on that one at least.
I am now starting to see quite a few cars with Yes stickers on them. This week I have come across 3 people who have been effected by the bedroom tax, one felt she had to give up the flat she has had for 25 years as being poorly paid, the cut in her housing benefit was too great a hole in her budget. She has moved in with elderly relatives. They won’t be voting No.
Breastplate
Indeed. The ghost of Glenrothes (and Mohammed Sarwar’s first election victory) should keep us alert
I wonder how the journalist felt on the night when seat after seat fell to the SNP.
You can go back six years, but the lies and the scaremongering remain unchanged
Morag says:
Surely more and more Labour supporters must come to some kind of epiphany regarding this momentus issue. I mean what asperation; or rather where is the insperation supposed to be coming from ???
Post 2014 proposals of any aspirational kind involving Scotland other than being part of a Biger Union ?? What does that mean ??
You can go back six years, but the lies and the scaremongering remain unchanged
Oh, thanks for that, it did me a power of good.
I didn’t see that at the time, partly because I was moving house (the flitting was on the Tuesday, actually the 300th anniversary of the Union), and partly because I would have switched off. It’s like a fine wine – it improves with maturity.
Was it really clever to spend an entire PPB enumerating your rival’s policies? It was also very confused, not differentiating between what the SNP would do as a devolved government if elected, and things that could only happen if a later independence referendum was successful. And only one of the points was actually correct. 1 out of 10 is bad, actually.
The SNP would give away our nuclear deterrent without demanding any concessions from our enemies in return. In a heartbeat, lassie.
Dave McEwan Hill, here’s hoping you’re right but a pity we have to think this way.
Dave McEwan Hill says: 4 September, 2013 at 11:40 pm Breastplate Does anyone have any knowledge regarding proposals to use International external scrutiny of the ballot and counts ? Is this being considered; I mean the UK state is already controlling the media.
Report from Barrowfield Glasgow this evening, claiming a canvas return of no NO votes. It is places like Barrowfield where this referendum will be won. Grateful to the folks on the ground doing the work and helping to ensure a YES vote.
I think it will be very hard to achieve any significant pauchling of the vote. The polling clerks and the tellers are honest. The seasoned SNP activists are vigilant. We certainly need to be careful and to take every precaution, but we don’t need to be paranoid.
I like this on election night in the wee small hours of 6th May (my birthday).
On my own and not well in bed but remember (and i admit it) having a good greet!
There used to be a compilation of it all on u-tube but nothing I can find anymore
Anyone got a source for them all?
Tris said:
I wonder how the journalist felt on the night when seat after seat fell to the SNP.
I wouldn’t blame the journalist – there was no editorial analysis in the piece, it merely reported the poll results and then quoted what Labour said about them. Eleven points was very unlikely – and it didn’t happen. It was almost 14 points. And an incredible almost 18 points on the list. Not 61 seats but 69.
That was one of the best nights of my life, I have to say. It showed that Scotland’s voters are not bloody fools, and they can work it out when the chips are down.
Stu forgot to link to his own Wings article discussing that poll at the time.
http://wingsoverscotland.com/how-many-chickens/
@ BillC; if there were ziltch ‘NO’ voting intentions from Barrowfield, Glasgow East, then the game’s a bogey for the NO camp, big time.
I think this one-year-to-go stage may be a bit of a tipping point. I can feel a momentum building, and I don’t know how because here in the Borders we’re not getting these figures.
Here’s hoping the 21st may tip things a little further.
Barontorc says:
@ BillC; if there were ziltch ‘NO’ voting intentions from Barrowfield, Glasgow East, then the game’s a bogey for the NO camp, big time.
If this is true then it’s megadeath for the naysayers.
If it was confirmed with say Shettleston & Easterhouse in the bag then Salmond may as well bring the referendum forward to next week.
Oh please let this be a 100% stick on 🙂
“The SNP are guilty of taking voters for granted, declaring the outcome before a vote is cast.”
Splutter, cough, gasp, whew I nearly chocked on my toast there,
I thought I just read from that Daily Record article from 2011 that the SNP were guilty of taking the voters for granted?
for projection it doesn’t get any clearer than that, the breathtaking hypocracy of these people is a wonder to behold,
For the whole of my life I have seen and experienced first hand the total lack of concern for its voters the Labour party has, they’re all over you like a rash when their looking for your vote and as soon as the people taken in by them have duly trudged out to the polling station on a wet windy dismal day and dutifully cast their vote as their betters have told them to do (never in my entire life have I voted for them and never will)they then turn into Howard Hughes and only touch you if they’ve got gloves on,maybe they’re afraid of catching back the rash back they passed on?
the most disingenuous people on the planet, as others have said, at least the Tories make no pretense of liking you
“Morag, my concern would be interference of ballot boxes by the state when it becomes obvious to them Yes will win.”
I agree I really wouldn’t put it past them, and yet after several attempts by me and others the ODIHR have clearly stated they WILL NOT get involved in the referendum UNLESS the UK government ask them to, which is kinda like the fox ringing the farmers front door bell before he raids the chicken coop, bizarre just bizarre
“trying to convince him was akin to trying to cut down a tree with a bowl of custard.”
ha ha ha ha brilliant,
but if that custard was fired at the tree under high pressure,
that bad boys coming down, get that idiot in front of a computer and bombard him with the facts and then let him tell we’re twtpts, show him diomhair for christ sake
“We are an ungrateful lot !!”
brays like farmyard animals and shouts of hear hear without the r 🙂
9 The SNP would give up nuclear weapons unilaterally without demanding any concessions from our POTENTIAL enemies?
What? what? what do they know? do I need sandbags? do I need to build an Anderson shelter in the back garden? cumon people we need answers here what are they hiding from us waaaaaaa runs off screaming
gordoz says
“Does anyone have any knowledge regarding proposals to use International external scrutiny of the ballot and counts ?”
Like Ive said on several posts gordoz the body who do this is called the ODIHR which is under the OSCE now Ive emailed them on several occasions asking for thier oversight of the campaign and their response was clear,
first email from me to them
I am aware other Scots have approached the ODIHR for help in combatting a completely biased main stream media in Scotland in favour of the country of Scotland remaining within the United Kingdom, the main culprit being the British Broadcasting Company, this has led to a scenario where although people are obliged under law to pay a license fee to the BBC, they quite outrageously prevent people having a response to biased articles, this coupled with vested interests paying for the no campaign but resisting media interest raises the question of a fair and open debate, however to reach my point, the other contactors appear (correct me if I’m wrong) to have had responses which imply only the sovereign state can ask for help which suggests your mandate is only to support the oppressor and not the oppressed ,please I would be most grateful if could enlighten me as to the facts, yours very sincerely
reply
Thank you for your message regarding possible observation by the OSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) of the referendum scheduled for 2014. From your message I am aware that you are familiar with the Office’s previous responses to inquiries on this subject, so I will focus here on the specific question you have asked regarding ODIHR’s mandate and the referendum. ODIHR is mandated to observe elections in OSCE participating States, and all 57 participating States have committed themselves to invite the Office to observe their elections. The wording of the commitment in this instance refers to “national election proceedings”, so the government of the United Kingdom is not politically obligated by the OSCE commitments it has made to invite ODIHR to observe the referendum. That said, ODIHR has been invited been invited in the past by the governments of OSCE participating States to observe local elections or referenda. If the government of the United Kingdom did issue an invitation to ODIHR to observe the referendum, the Office would then certainly consider doing so. Analysing the media landscape and monitoring the coverage of the referendum campaign would almost certainly be part of such an observation activity. Best regards, Thomas RymerSpokespersonOSCE Office for Democratic Institutions and Human Rights (ODIHR) Tel: +48 22 520 0640Mobile: +48 609 522 266
my second email
In response to your recent communication to me,
might I say thank you for your prompt response and I am grateful you should take the time to do so ,
however I do feel the content of your response opened up a schism in the connection between the OSCE and the electorates they are there to protect,
as in the case of Scotland the body who stand to gain by no involvement of the ODIHR is the only body you say is entitled to ask for your input which would be the UK government,
As Scotland has a devolved parliament and the Scottish people (as opposed to Westminster ) are sovereign in Scotland I would imagine a case for your involvement of the basis that you have been invited by the sovereign masters of Scotland is justification enough for the protection your body offers,
or is it the case that protection is held solely for the support of the governments who’s duplicitous actions are preventing (or attempting to) the right of the people of Scotland to fair and balanced reporting by using a corporation who demand our money on pain of imprisonment to support them but refuse point blank to honor their own editorial commitment (http://www.bbc.co.uk/guidelines/editorialguidelines/page/guidelines-editorial-values-charter/)to present a balanced approach to reporting,
might I suggest you cast your eye over this article http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2013/04/bbc-the-new-hammer-of-the-scots/
which is indicative of the belief most Scots have of the BBC
in summary I would strongly urge your office to take a stand in regards to the forthcoming referendum in Scotland or stand aside and watch a travesty take place
john king
response
total silence
” but we don’t need to be paranoid.”
tell that to the SNP in Glenrothes
“The SNP are guilty of taking voters for granted, declaring the outcome before a vote is cast.”
I liked that sentence.
show him diomhair for christ sake.
I am actually astonished that Diomhair does not have more hits on Youtube, part one has just under 15,000, the other parts around 2,000 to 3,000. Wish we could get it on CD!
Not one single ‘no’ in an area where there still remains a fair few Labourites who toe the party line (as if the party whip was permanently sat on their shoulder), is a serious eye opener.
Please let this be true. I don’t mind a bit of teasing but this is too much.
I am feeling a build up of momentum and this has been helped by these last two desperately biased polls showing the Yes vote hovering around 25%
The BT mob are shechting themselves and the one thing they have desperately tried to stop more than anything is the build up of positive momentum.
We are at a crucial stage of the fight and I’m soooo disappointed that I’m not able to make the March in Edinburgh, because a good turn out will just add to this positive feeling.
I wonder how people like DH, Ian Smart and their assorted lap-dogs are feeling today, not too confident I would guess.
Iain Macwhirter has a fine swipe at Osborne today in the Herald, but somewhat undermines it with this:
‘Neither the SNP Government, nor the Yes Scotland campaign, seems able to mount a coherent, imaginative case for independence in a language Scottish voters can understand. I’m not surprised support for independence is back at its bedrock 25%.’
Oh dear.
We’ll do it.
It’s well on the turn and you can feel a change in terms of daily discussions. Just the way people are beginning to openly approach the subject now, starting to ask questions. Before you’d get the standard no, or don’t be daft blank walled response. Now? Well what about the oil? Just how does this Common Weal work? Who will have input into a constitution? The bastards did what in the 70s with that report? That kinda thing. The more questions they ask, the more answers they receive. The more answers they receive, the more questions they ask. The general public won’t be ‘undecided’ for too much longer.
I don’t know who Labour are talking to that makes them claim the support for independence is low. I attended a function recently where the attendees were mainly Labour voters in the past, and I was pleasantly surprised to hear a substantial majority of them are either definitely going to vote YES or are moving towards voting YES.
shinty says
Its the subtitles shinty, it it had been dubbed into English it would have had millions of hits
That’s it!
Out comes the YES board. I am heading north this weekend. If you see a YES board on the back of a MAZDA 5 on the Aberdeen-Inverness road – that’s me!
When I was a student I helped canvas for votes for the Conservative party. A friend’s father was a councillor in Motherwell. This gave some insights into why Labour had so many votes. The ballot was secret only at point of voting. Everyone knew who had voted for whom. Yes it was feudal, both sides. My point is that perhaps the voters are realising that this referendum is NOT an election. It is for keeps and if they vote “yes” then come independence the SLAB machine can’t touch them anymore. Vindictiveness is the norm. Fear is the key….. or was !
Hail Alba.
The Scottish National Party has published further results of the poll commissioned by the party and conducted by Panelbase – this time on the satisfaction ratings for Alex Salmond, David Cameron, Ed Miliband, and Nick Clegg.
The Panelbase poll remains the most recent poll in terms of its sampling dates: 23-28 August, among 1,043 people aged 18 and over in Scotland.
Panelbase was the first polling organisation to show the SNP in the lead during the 2011 Holyrood election campaign.
Panelbase asked:
Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the following political leader are doing their job:
ALEX SALMOND
Very satisfied: 25%
Slightly satisfied: 23%
TOTAL SATISFIED: 48%
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 16%
Slightly dissatisfied: 14%
Very dissatisfied: 23%
TOTAL DISSATISFIED: 37%
POSITIVE RATING: +11
DAVID CAMERON
Very satisfied: 5%
Slightly satisfied: 16%
TOTAL SATISFIED: 21%
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 13%
Slightly dissatisfied: 18%
Very dissatisfied: 48%
TOTAL DISSATISFIED: 66%
NEGATIVE RATING: -45
ED MILIBAND
Very satisfied: 1%
Slightly satisfied: 12%
TOTAL SATISFIED: 13%
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 28%
Slightly dissatisfied: 20%
Very dissatisfied: 39%
TOTAL DISSATISFIED: 59%
NEGATIVE RATING: -46
NICK CLEGG
Very satisfied: 1%
Slightly satisfied: 12%
TOTAL SATISFIED: 13%
Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied: 21%
Slightly dissatisfied: 18%
Very dissatisfied: 48%
TOTAL DISSATISFIED: 66%
NEGATIVE RATING: -53
Among people who voted Labour in the Scottish Parliament constituency vote in 2011, a total of 28 per cent are satisfied with Mr Miliband and 40 per cent are dissatisfied. Among people who voted Lib Dem in the Scottish Parliament constituency vote in 2011, a total of 22 per cent are satisfied with Mr Clegg and 50 per cent are dissatisfied.
On GMS, Tory minister, Lord Freud tells us that the introduction of universal credit, despite them being so incompetent as to now having written of £34 million due to IT mistakes, is ……
‘a massive programme of cultural transformation’ …and the rollout or is it a pilot, is heading to Inverness from October.
Let’s have our own programme of cultural transformation, vote YES, and Freud and his ilk can wreak their damage closer to home.
As has been said many times on here before McWhirter is a gut Unionist. Small wonder he cited the TNS poll. He still seems to think federalism, devo max, devo plus etc will appear like the shopkeeper in Mr Benn.
On another note, here’s a money saving tip for the BBC. Replace Jackie Bird, Sally Magnusson, Gary Robertson et al with the robot from Lost in Space that waved its arms around and shouted ‘Danger, Danger’ next time you’re looking to punt a ‘There’s a warning this morning that Scottish independence will…(Fill in blank of your choice story). You’re paying several presenters to repeat throughout the day this morning’s ‘warnings’ delivered via Nick Clegg and the CBI, for example. Simplify, Boothman, simplify!
My car has been plastered in YES stickers and newsnet Scotland stickers – need WOS stickers Rev!- for the best part of a year .
I have learned not to wave naughty fingers at tooters supporting the festooning.
At the moment my husband is driving my wee car on occasion so may I offer preemptive apology to anyone in the Glasgow area who toots support and receives a bunny eared reply for their pains!
Iain MacWhirter’s comments give credence to the argument that the poll by TNS was intended to shape public opinion rather than reflect it. You would have thought that Mr MacWhirter would be have been more aware of that.
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/09/04/universal-credit_n_3867178.html?utm_hp_ref=uk
this should be fun,
get the popcorn and watch that creature (IDS) go into meltdown
OT.
I see that Anas Sarwar is lined up to follow Baillie into the shredder at ClydebankTUC,
Public Meeting: SHOULD THE WORKING CLASS SUPPORT INDEPENDENCE? 3rd. Oct. 7pm. Town Hall.
Should be a fun evening out for those who can go.
@Marcia
That’s crushing stuff, particularly for Labour. Looks like the ‘attack Salmond’ stuff is working a treat.
The simple secret is for political parties to do exactly ‘as it says on the tin’
The SNP have demonstrably done so, despite orchestrated opposition – beginning with a Unionist rigged Parliament to block even a majority.
The once great Socialist Party is long gone – sold out – the current lap-dog Labour plastic replacement being no more than an ineffective Political joke.
Just completed a panelbase survey.
Q’s (not in order)
– What did I vote in 2011 Scottish election constituency and regional
– What I’d vote in a Scottish election the morn’s morn constituency and regional
– What did I vote in the 2010 UKGE
– What would I vote in a UKGE the morn’s morn
– Indy question
– Whether more or less likely to vote Lib dem following the coalition
Hopefully we’ll see the results of this one as we might be able to see the Yougov problem as we’ll have voter recall on both 2010 and 2011.
Training Day says:
5 September, 2013 at 8:57 am
On another note, ….
Humour often paints a far clearer picture to clarify the BBC charade. Ex stuff
We have another visitor from over the border in the shape of CBI boss Sir Mike Rake who will be telling us Scots that we are “too wee, too poor and too stupid” to run our own economy. In particular he will express his concerns over Scotland’s place in Europe.
The problem with that line of attack is that three months ago he made a speech on Europe where he argued that, “ongoing (UK) membership of the EU is overwhelmingly in our economic and political interests”.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10150402/A-business-manifesto-to-kick-start-the-entire-EU.html
The attached comments to this story make interesting reading. Also there is an online poll at the end of this story that confirms what we already know of public opinion south of the border on continued EU membership.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/10150729/CBI-boss-Sir-Mike-Rake-Britain-must-stay-in-EU.html
Continued union with England won’t do Scotland much good if the English decide to leave the EU
@cearc
“I see that Anas Sarwar is lined up to follow Baillie into the shredder at ClydebankTUC,
Public Meeting: SHOULD THE WORKING CLASS SUPPORT INDEPENDENCE? 3rd. Oct. 7pm. Town Hall.”
I look forward to the video; the last one was a hoot!
Dave McEwan Hill – in today’s Express (no! I don’t read it but my wife drew my attention to this letter
“…… “instead of squandering £13.3 million on a referendum that no poll has ever indicated a demand for from the Scottish people. Glasgow Airport’s domestic pier is in a way similar to the Scottish Government – not fit for purpose.”
“David McEwan Hill”
Surely some mistake or manipulation?
The SNP have a mandate from the Scottish people to improve their ‘very junior partner’ status in this so-called union.
They are now addressing these long overdue matters which were repeatedly ignored by Unionist parties.
The Referendum is merely a result of the on-going, utter neglect of Scottish aspirations.
And furthermore while i’m feeling grumpy will someone please apply some rational thought to the numerous polls from the last few days. I felt quite buoyed up by the Panelbase poll which showed the narrowest of leads for YES, the other polls piled in to dampen my buoyancy. Then respected posters such as Ivan McKee concludes that the polls really indicate N on 56% and Yes 37%. Roger Mexico concludes N on 45% and Y on 27%! I know they are only polls but as many say it’s the trend that is important. I’ll be 70 next year and I don’t want to die being my only way out of this foul Union. Enlightenment please!
Anas Sarwar has only one script when he goes to the TUC meeting, to slag off Alex Salmond and the SNP. I’ll bet that’s exactly what the audience doesn’t want to hear when they’re being subjected to Westminster-led benefit cuts and austerity. These people will want to hear what vision the Labour Party has for them and Scotland, and they won’t get it from a weasel like Sarwar. He may come out with some slick shite, but it’s still shite!
A game of two halves. This past year a great deal of useful info, and rebuttal of nonsense has been available to us, particularly here on WOS, due to Rev, Sneaky Boy, Scottish Skier and many well-informed readers.
We are surely now much better informed on the pros and cons of independence.I’m set for a good second half campaigning for the Yes campaign with the confidence of the knowledge gained over the past year.
” Do you know that England exports more Scotch whisky than Scotland? Whit! Away wi ye”. -seems like a good opener for engaging with the don’t knows.
Bill McLean
Scottish Skier has the best handle on recent polls. His comments are worth a read.
@dinnatouch
Thanks, oh yes, I remember that.
I remember this one too; “the certainty of chaos and conflict”, “a Scotland that respects, not resents its neighbours”, “breaking up Britain”.
Roger Mexico concludes N on 45% and Y on 27%
Scottish skier concludes 45%N / 37%Y and closing due to soft no and DK’s moving to yes. I’m expecting parity by the end of the year / early 2014.
What is consistent across all the polls is that No can only rely on ~1/3 going out and voting No at best. That’s why both TNS and MORI which apparently show great stuff for No are still both concluding it’s ‘wide open’.
@Bill McLean
Re the Express letter, I noticed over on the WoS twitter thing he mentioned he’d seen anti-independence comments being posted by names used by people on here in the Telegraph, could of course be more than one Dave McEwan Hill.
Don’t know which article though, so don’t know the background to it all.
Thanks for comments folks – how is it consistent across polls that “No can only rely on 1/3 going out and voting No at best” – Skier then how many can YES rely on? Still confused!
Albalha – thanks for that – a bit too close for coincidence though don’t you think?
@Dcanmore
I’ll bet that’s exactly what the audience doesn’t want to hear when they’re being subjected to Westminster-led benefit cuts and austerity. These people will want to hear what vision the Labour Party has for them and Scotland, and they won’t get it from a weasel like Sarwar.
That is why SLAB are failing. They have no vision or ideas, only a virulent hatred of the SNP. This has left them blind and bitter. You just need to read the comments of Wilson, Kelly et al, and listen to what Lamont has to say in the Scottish parliament. Even if there is a No vote they will not improve. They will not even be happy. They will likely be even more vindictive in victory.
@Bill McLean
Most certainly odd.
A year ago I had a conversation with colleagues in the pub. One hardcore unionist, a nationalist, and two soft nos saying ‘well it would be nice, wouldn’t it, but it doesn’t make sense.’
A year on, one of those soft nos has switched to yes and the other is persuadable.
A year ago, across my organisation, on the rare occasions when the subject was discussed, nos were the more numerous voices. Now, I am encouraged by the number of yes opinions coming out and the willingness of people to be open to the arguments.
The long campaign is in our favour.
@Bill McLean, I think there are 2 possibilities. Either Dave McEwan Hill has been talking rubbish on here for yonks or someone has hijacked his name. I don’t believe the use of the name to be coincidence.
Breastplate – can’t believe, from his posts, that he and the Express letter writer are one and the same. I support and am a member of the SNP but have no problem with those who are against them. To be anti-SNP is one thing but to diss the referendum does not fit! Also could be designed to create confusion in the minds of those who agreed with our Dave but now see him wavering could give them pause to reconsider.
Bill McLean, I’m sure he will confirm if it is him or not in his next post but I am aware anyone could use my screen name on any site that I’m not registered with.
@BillMclean
He runs the YES Scotland shop in Dunoon, so not the thoughts of the DMH on here.
He’ll maybe pop up himself at some point.
And @billmclean think he’s a longstanding member of the SNP like yourself!
@Dcanmore
He may come out with some slick shite, but it’s still shite!
Based on previous form, the good people of Clydebank throw shite straight back. Slick shite may heat up the returns. As Man in a jar says, let’s hope they video for a great night in with a malt (and choccy raisins of course).
Breastplate and Albalha – i’m aware that DAVE runs the YES shop in Dunoon and have read his posts and letters for some years now. This letter was signed DAVID McEwan Hill so it may be a concidence but somehow I doubt it. I strongly suspect someone is at it but it’s not our man!
Even more OT.
I see that Business for Scotland have snapped up the talent of the admirable, young Mr. Gray as a ‘staff reporter’.
how is it consistent across polls that “No can only rely on 1/3 going out and voting No at best”
That is the value for those saying they’ll very sure they’ll vote and vote No. It’s consistent and fairly stable. It’s the status quo people (British and about half the equally Scottish and British). The rest of the No’s are either open to changing their mind and/or unlikely to vote. They’re mainly Devo Maxers, hence open to yes.
When you dig into the tables, you get about the same value from TNS, MORI and Panelbase.
Yes has about the same core. That’s why when polls are conducted a slightly different way, suddenly Yes and No are equal. It’s also, as noted, why MORI and TNS recently concluded that it’s still wide open even thought they are showing apparently great scores for No.
The pollsters are all getting similar raw data, but the way they pose the questions then weight and analyse to give headline figures is different.
1/3 Yes
1/3 Open to yes (devo maxers)
1/3 No
The key is getting the middle group out to vote as in the end if they vote, they’ll vote yes.
Apologies – OT
Today’s Record online:
Jackie Baillie has come up with a
£50million plan to beat the hated Bedroom Tax and keep poor Scots in their homes
Her big plan is – that the Scottish government finds £50 million to plug the gap.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/labour-reveals-50million-plan-beat-2252502
@billmclean
I just can’t resist a bit of research, could this be the chap, though maybe Dave paints as well ……
http://www.blairmoregallery.co.uk/artists/david-mcewan-hill/
Good auld Daily record , reliably un-reliable, always has been , always will be !
Just watched FMQ’s and don’t think I’ll do that again any time soon. What impression must other people get of our parliament watching that Punch and Judy show? Week after week, with monotonous regularity, the Three Stooges in turn get up to point at Alex Salmond and with their faux concerned faces on and tell him how bad he is for the Scottish people.
God, Johann Lamont is truly awful.
You’ve solved it I think Albalha. The only remaining conundrum is that the DAVID MCEWAN HILL who has an art shop and café in Blairmore gave his location in the Express as “Sandbanks” which, if memory serves, is where DAVE MCEWAN HILL (YES campaigner) always gives his location. The art shop man also admits to being “forthright about Scottish politics”. Clearly “Scottish politics” of the unionist bent – and him having travelled a lot and all. This may of course all be the fault of the “Scottish” Daily Express. How very dare they?
Skier – sorry for delay in replying. Thanks very much – clearer now. Hope you are right – remember my only other way out of this union is not a pleasant alternative. Thanks again!
@BillMcLean
Don’t look now but there’s a David (not Dave) McEwan Hill posting on the most recent article on this site, I give in ……………….
Someone should phone Dave up!
Albalha – I give up!
I think we will have to beware of imposters in the year to come.
I’m laughing so hard right now!!!!
@Marcia
Agreed. It requires taking a wee step back before responding, devil in the detail and all that.
And anything to discredit posters here as any kind of IST, would, I presume, be the end goal.
Thankfully we’re a pretty shrewd bunch.
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