In this site’s view, there are just two things the Yes campaign needs to get across to the Scottish people in order to win the independence referendum. All the quibbling over this detail and that detail, as seen in the No camp’s ridiculous (and so far mythical) “500 questions”, will ultimately come down to two simple facts at the ballot box:
1. There will be NO significant new powers for the Scottish Parliament in the event of a No vote. If anything, the opposite will be true.
2. The Scottish people already want independence. They simply haven’t yet realised that the thing they want is called independence.
Win on those two, and the Yes side will win everything.
We’ve explored both of these aspects at considerable length on Wings Over Scotland. The Vote No Get Nothing tag is one of our most-read, and we’ve pondered a few times on the curious discrepancy in the way the Scottish public consistently says it wants Holyrood to control things like defence, welfare and taxation, yet opposes the constitutional state that that situation describes, namely independence.
So it was encouraging to read this morning of a poll showing that only 33% of Scots believe that the Unionist parties will deliver more powers in the event of a No victory. We suspect that number is already in decline compared to last year, and will continue to fall the closer we get to the vote and the more hollow the promises of Labour and the Tories are seen to be.
Point 2 follows logically from point 1, a fact which will become clearer and clearer to the Scottish electorate over the coming 16 months. Never mind what the polls say. The argument is being won, and where it leads, the vote is rarely very far behind.