Your half and their half
There’s been a veritable flurry of polls commissioned to mark the impending one-year anniversary of the independence referendum. In the last 48 hours alone we’ve seen ones from Survation, YouGov and Panelbase, making a variety of interesting findings. As ever, though, the trick is in the interpretation.
Yesterday’s Scottish Daily Mail ran a big piece on the Survation one, written by its Scottish political editor Alan Roden, which didn’t make it onto the paper’s website.
We’d been poring over the data tables yesterday before we caught up with the article, and were puzzled by the headline – we couldn’t recall seeing any figures justifying such a claim, so we had another look. The only question that could be said to relate to whether “most Scots” wanted a second referendum or not was this one:
What that actually shows is that in fact almost six out of ten Scots (58.1%, to be precise) DO want a second vote within the next decade. Just one fifth say they don’t want another one at all, yet the Mail has managed to describe 20.4% as “most”.
The closest the article comes to explaining its claim is this sentence:
“More than 40 per cent of voters believe Miss Sturgeon should keep her promise that last year’s contest was a ‘once-in-a-generation’ opportunity and not stage another vote for at least a decade.”
Leaving aside the fact that no such thing was ever “promised”, that’s still a very weird line. Those who want to wait a decade or more, or forever, amount to 41.8%. And while that is indeed “more than 40 per cent”, it’s also still a fair way short of “most”.
If you add up the two most extreme options at either end it’s 43.5% for a quick second indyref and 41.8% against – those opposed are still the smaller section. (And the chunk of people you’ve excluded still want one within a decade.)
The only semantic defence would be if the refuseniks were at least the biggest single group. But they’re not. The most popular answer came from those who want another referendum in 2-5 years, ie well within the term of the next Scottish government.
We long ago passed the point where we were surprised to see a newspaper, let alone whatever the Daily Mail is, printing blatant lies. But every now and again we’re still capable of being startled at the sheer contemptuous, lazy crudity of them.
And the depressing thing is that our pensioners will read this shite and take it as fact…
It is probably even more important now than it was before ‘Corbo Time’ to vote SNP/SNP come May 2016 if we want Scotland to be Independent.
If there is any drop in support, they will not be long in trotting out the Macwhirter,‘the honeymoon is over’, ‘high water mark’ pish.
Never= 20.4%
It sometimes feels like more than that when MSM, Unionist politicians, and some social media peeps, get so upset about all the division and all the narrow nationalism. Still, good to have that figure embraced by the Daily Mail.
Take note dailymail readers, only 20.4% of people in Scotland are against the people of Scotland deciding whether to run their own country or not, or to put it another way, 20.4% would like to deny 79.6% of people the right to decide whether they can run their own country.
Well well well the Cameron I.Q. test paper on TRUTH comes out with yet another easily debunked LIE. Who knew. I mean who really knew that the D.M. has the capacity to continue printing lie after lie after lie. Especially since they appear to so besotted with a certain Jeremy Corbyn at this very difficult time. 😀
Only the Mail could use the phrases “referendum most Scots don’t want” and “union hangs in the balance” and not have its readers raise their eyebrows.
don’t lump all pensioners together. I am 72 and have been an SNP supporter all my adult life.
They do seem to have problems with figures & the corresponding descriptive words. The fact that they need to match up so that they reflect the same meaning really doesn’t appear to have occurred to them.
They also appear to have done their very best to find a poor photo-trying exceptionally hard to portray Nicola as a ‘baddie’ to be afraid of when the opposite is the case.
NIL POINT-Scottish Dail Fail-you buggered it up again 🙂
Typical Tories
“What that actually shows is that in fact almost six out of ten Scots (58.1%, to be precise) DO want a second vote within the next decade.”
Also likely, same Scots will vote YES. Why else does the majority Scots want a next and last referendum? The Vow’s been a colossal historic UKOK fraud on Scotland for starters…
This is exactly the procedure adopted by
UK Media. Present big dangerous lie headline
to scare the vulnerable, and run for the hills
If anyone wants you to justify it.
Lie, mislead, distort, camaflage, and terrify!
Good old British standards with morals from the gutter
That headline reeks of fear.
Its the Mail and so never knowingly honest or accurate.
Basically along with the Torygraph, they’re somewhere below a bugs arse in a steaming pit of….
… What’s that dear? Oh ma tea’s oot, gotta go!
“We long ago passed the point where we were surprised to see a newspaper, let alone whatever the Daily Mail is..”
Heh.
Are they really so terrified that they have to keep coming out with this guff? The SNP are playing a blinder at the moment, keeping the buggers guessing. They have seen the polls, they know the anniversary approaches, and they are panicking (again). It’s only a matter of time before some unionist says something really stupid and counter productive (again).
I know who is going to blink first. 🙂
O/T Rev hope you noticed the Wee blue book getting a mention
In the National today in Michael Gray Opinion section.
You forgot to point out that it is a classic propaganda technique.
The headline is backed by the highlighted figures below it:
The 51% (majority) who would vote NO and;
the 33% (majority) who are less likely to vote SNP.
Yes the no change lot are the majority at 36%, but the text is black which means the reader focuses on the coloured text that contrast 31% with 33%.
It’s merely playing on the reader’s visual perception that is all.
Strange you should have missed that one
No matter how left-wing Corbyn is we must never stop reminding people that he is a ‘dyed-in-the-wool- UNIONIST’ I listened to a lad called Gary from East-end of Glasgow saying that he was SNP but he found Corbyn quite appealing. We must stop these type of thoughts before they gain any traction.
Auld Rock
I may be wrong here. 😉
Last year we had the “Saviour of Scotland” a.k.a. the Daily Record print up their front front page with the “VOW” in their last ditched attempt to save the union, courtesy of Broon the Loon.
It is now quite clear to me at least that this saviour baton malarkey has now been passed on to the Daily Mail. What we have here is in fact a precursor to the Daily Mail’s front page, any day now, appearing with the “VOW II!” This will be closely followed by another front page spectacular claiming that as the “VOW” was so spectacularly delivered Cameron and co. are proceeding with all haste with the “VOW II!” 😀
You just gotta love the language
Sturgeon “PLOTS” a referendum. They always have ability to create negativity out of nothing.
@gordoz
WBB and Wings also got a mention on Billy Kay’s “The Cause” on BBC Radio Scotland (I’ll even give them capitals when they do deserve it 😉 )
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b069x4y5#play
Off Topic, but with relevance to SNP.
Yet more monstering of Corbyn, and this by the most left-leaning (or least right-wing) of the MSM. The knives are out, and they’re determined to get him.
From this nonsense about no important shadow cabinet posts going to women, to this petty garbage; they’ll use anything to peck peck peck.
Despite having closed the gap to the Tories by a few points in a poll, the constant negativity of the press will influence people. That means another certain Tory government in 2020. That means only one thing for Scotland.
Only two things ever true in that toilet paper of a “Newspaper”…..
The Price, and the Date
What that actually shows is that in fact almost six out of ten Scots (58.1%, to be precise) DO want a second vote within the next decade. Just one fifth say they don’t want another one at all, yet the Mail has managed to describe 20.4% as “most”.
…you’re just being beastly to the Mail. next thing is that you’ll wasnt journalists to be hooked up to lie detectors and given truth serum…
The 20.4% as “most” is a political lie not a personal lie. Just ask anyone in Orkney and Shetland if you don’t believe me.
Something else I just thought about…Only the Daily Fail and the rest of the MSM could actually find a way to make you pay your hard earned cash to be brainwashed with lying propaganda.
Same old same old from a despicable tory rag,i am surprised they havnt said its a national security issue as that seems to be the tories sound bite of the moment.
As for Roden he is no journalist just another brown nosed tory PR man.
But look at it this way we must be in front in the polls for them to drag up this concocted lie,all smells of desperation to me.
Their big problem is we have seen all this before and they have nothing new to add,shot their bolt so they have and indy ref 2 will be a whole different battle,because this time we will be attacking them not the other way around and that is why they are crapping it.
indy ref 1 was always going to have us on the defensive,but indy ref 2 will have them on the defensive after all the lies they told to win indy ref 1,that is why they are so desperate to make the once in a generation bullshit stick.
This is the ‘British’ state doing its usual ‘now and again’ publications of sowing doubt and confirmation at the same time (usually when something is going against the British State from within by those nasty Nats)
The Confirmation (for those who believe that Glorious Britannia will live forever…)
– people who are unsure of the future and are scared of bad stuff if the Union should end
– the die-hards who will punch the air at such statistics coming from wonderful and great British Government
Sowing Doubt (for those who need their bubble burst big time for being completely ‘anti-British’)
– The Nationalists …all of them
One headline …with two intentions.
Haud the bus! At the time the last referendum was called, correct me if im wrong, support was about 30%. Hard work and a lot of mythbusting took us to within a bawhair before being trumped with that fuckin’ vow. We’re back at that close to 50/50 mark. We’ve recognised the mistakes of the last campaign in addressing insecurities and now we have an unfettered tory government raining shit upon us. Is it really going to be as hard to get to 55% from where we are now as it was to get to 45% from where we were 4 years ago.
PS I’m a pensioner, but none taken.
I didn’t get a chance to ask a question directly at last night’s travelling cabinet in Coatbridge but I did put in a question to the question box at the end regarding the BBC and the MSN (citing G A Ponsonby’s book and Prof John Robertsons report)
I don’t know if I’ll get the wishy washy government reply but personally I’d kick the BBC out of Holyrood and never let them near it again. I’d give RT and Al Jezera unlimited access.
I’d also be looking at making the BBC “subscription” that’s being proposed illegal in Scotland.
I’m not well up on media stuff but wasn’t there some hint at the time that Leveson could have wider ramifications in Scotland because of Scottish Law.
The Daily Heil lies and twists things to meet its England is Wonderful beliefs – it is what that paper’s management does. We simply have to accept that, they will not change.
But, a good proportion of their readership believes what they read. One of my partner’s oldest friends is a Daily Heil believer – anything which is printed in that rag is, in her eyes, truth.
It is her and her ilk who are the problem. But, many of these people are in their seventh, eighth and beyond decades, they are dying-out. The question is, will they die-out quickly enough, because, at some point, the momentum for Independence could stall.
We, the 45, the pro-independence lobby, should, must, become more pro-active in challenging the lies and mis-information punted by the likes of the Heil, the Torygraph and the BBC.
If we complain, loud enough and long enough, at some point, the decent journalists, and there are still many out there – will eventually tell their management: “Enough”.
The SNP should be building bridges with the NUJ and the other media employees organisations, to try to curb these lies.
Given the SNP’s tactic is: “Softly, softly, catchee monkey”, they should be using the time they have to more-seriously counter-act the lies.
For instance, I would like to see SNP “talking heads”, forced to contend with BBC Scotland’s constant interruptions and deflections, getting nasty. Tell Brewster, Burd & Co, when they try to shut you up: “Naw – you’re talking mince, so, you shut-up while I tell you the truth”.
One or two aggressive come-backs and the BBC would soon, I feel, be a bit more SNP-tolerant.
If they are talked over, simply shut-up, force an embarrassed silence, (nothing is worse than “dead air”), then, come back with: “As I was saying before you so rudely interrupted me”, and make the point. The BBC will crack first.
More bull, more misdirection, more skewing the figures and fiddling the facts. Who cares what these rags say anymore – Scotland is no longer zipped up the back. 2020 is the sensible date by the looks of it to aim to hold a refurendum win can win. Yes I’d like it sooner but these figures suggest 2020 and its long enough that they can’t use the once in a generation bull they like to say happened.
The Unionist press is NEVER going to give the case for Independence a fair hearing. Even if we shoot down every argument they put forward, which we can and did, their power doesn’t lie in their arguments but the power to set the agenda.
Do you think the Bolchevics storming the Winter Palace or the French Revolutionaries storming the Bastille would have let their ardour be dissipated and their Revolution curtailed by whether they might have to change the denomination of their currency?
Our Indy referendum was a joke. The BBC and mainstream media seized the agenda and never gave the true issues of being a sovereign Nation the attention it thoroughly warranted.
Next time, they will do it again, or at least try to. If we fall for it again, and let the Unionists set the agenda again, we will lose again. Next time, every pro Indy politician on the TV or radio must be better briefed and alert to how the Unionists are manipulating the agenda.
Its not enough to beat their arguments. We must have “them” reacting to our agenda, not see ourselves shackled to the banality of theirs.
Only a minority (43.4%) want IndyRef 2 during the next Scottish parliamentary session (approximately the same thing as “within five years”). So you could argue that the headline might be true, conditional on Sturgeon “plotting” IndyRef 2 during the 2017 session, a crime of which some in the meeja claim she’s guilty. That’s my best guess at what’s going on in their convoluted little heads.
Now I feel dirty.
They would have been better saying 100% of Daily Mail readers in Scotland see themselves as British and voted No, (now that is believable).
But then again they don’t do the truth; wouldn’t have got past the editor.
This is all a bit silly because it’s pointless having a referendum before there’s a decent majority in favour of indy. The poll shows 49%, up a few notches from the actual referendum a year ago. So based on the principle of “never interrupt your enemy when he’s making a mistake”, all the SNP needs to do is sit on its hands and let events take their course. “Events, dear boy, events!”
There seems to be a good chance that conditions will be right before the end of the next Holyrood term, but if not then early in the following one. Which pretty well matches the public’s perceptions as reported in the poll.
This is hardly news, simply a welcome confirmation.
Chris Baxter wrote, “That means another certain Tory government in 2020. That means only one thing for Scotland.”
That reminds me of David Blunkett writing in the daily Mail that Corbyn is unelectable.
When you forecast X to happen, you get a vested interest in making it happen and you then want it to happen.
So Chris Baxter reveals the SNP hope – that the Tories win again – and they will try to make that happen. And then you’ll blame the English for voting for the Tories!
Chris Baxter wrote, “That means another certain Tory government in 2020. That means only one thing for Scotland.”
That reminds me of what Blunkett wrote in the Mail, that Corbyn is unelectable.
When you make a forecast, you gain a vested interest in making it come true and you want it to happen.
So Chris Baxter wants another certain Tory government in 2020 – and will then blame the English for voting Tory!
It’s just today’s Hate Mail mixed with Junk Mail. Until Independence we will be getting this stuff every day -I think we all know that. We are at war – the propaganda war. But at war nevertheless. When Yes survived Westminster’s torpedoing of IndyRef, ‘war’ was inevitable from the No side.
But you know what – if you don’t read it and don’t watch it on Auntie ‘Nasty Bitch’ BBC TV, then it won’t touch you.
Vote SNP. Twice.
You also have to wonder how reprobates like Dacre actual hire reprobates like Roden. How do they select candidates for Daily Heil jobs to start with, are you a journalist? Yes, Are you?, No, are you a liar, Yes, are you? No, Are you tory, No, are you? Yes! Are you? No, Yes, do you have any sense of morality? Yes, do you? No, are you just one more sneaky shit who’ll say anything for a buck? No. You’re hired.
“… most Scots do not want”
Maybe he meant the Scots sitting around his office desk? A poll within a poll.
If anyone has time to make a formal press complaint based on Rev’s post – PLEASE do
keep chipping away
There’s never going to be good headlines from the unionist press on Scottish independence.
Scotland will always be under attack from them, the best we can hope for is that we are on the ground meeting greeting and speaking to people, who are unsure of the merits of independence.
We must keep plugging away and try to convince as many folk as possible of the merits of independence, regardless of the unionist press.
Notice also that 67% of those polled are favourable to or at least not bothered about the SNP PROMISING another referendum. Only 33% say they are less likely to vote for an SNP with a “promise of a referendum” in their manifesto.
So I imagine merely setting out conditions and timetable for a possible referendum (not an unconditional promise), as the SNP are actually likely to do, is even less scary to most people in Scotland.
That’s the idea. Plant the lie and people on the indi side lose heart. Thinking that the majority of Scots are against them. The truth is most Scots think indi is inevitable.
The media are trying to dupe the public into thinking they are unreasonable, and the majority don’t want the referendum. When in fact it’s the other way round. The majority want the referendum but the noisy minority pretend they are the majority opinion.
Oldest media trick in the book. Make people look isolated and unreasonable.
Our Fascist media – the Heil,Torygraph and even the Guardian, are all having a right good go at Corbyn, for the heinous crimes of:
Not having his top shirt button done up – and –
Not singing GSTQ at today’s Battle of Britain service in St Paul’s.
Quick Nicola, while they are targeting JC, declare UDI and go – we could be free by the time they notice we’ve gone. I mean, what are a bunch of rebellious Sweaties, compared to a Westminster politician disrespecting the anthem.
Chaps a cad and a bounder with LMF.
The First Minister might be the most dangerous’st woman in Britain but she’s obviously the most favouritist woman in Scotland, and the Pie chart on the front of their paper shows just that
So thanks for that Daily Heil, good journalism, good graphic
And well done
P.S. Nice picture of Nicola looking determined too
Kind of “Oh yes we will” Eh “Try and stop me”
OT.4 hours ago. Baron To Be,Alistair Darling WARNS ‘Scottish Labour’ NOT to move to the Left.
TELT! Now back in yer box. 🙁
Link BBC Scotland:-
https://archive.is/6seWN
Plenty of older people trawl the air ways for info and at 83 I am one of them.
I also voted YES in the referendum and I log on to WOS every day.
Please Not all the elderly are scared of a change in the way Scotland is governed and the quicker we have independence the better.In my lifetime I hope
There can’t be many folks now, who don’t know…
…that the only public opinion that can be trusted…
..is WHEN PEOPLE PUT A CROSS IN A BOX…
People are not stupid, they just sent that message at the GE.
All this chip chipping away from the media is tedious.
Irrespective of how these figures are contorted the simple fact remains, the “union” is over.
There are fundamental, ideological differences between the political views of the majority of Scottish people and London.
What we are seeing now is the beginning of the end…only problem is the unionists refuse to see the reality that Westminster and our current political system is a shambles.
All the No vote achieved was to begin a long and painful split.
A decade? That’ll be nine years max then, since a year has now elapsed,unless that decade keeps rolling. 🙂
Maybe Calum Craig meant to say “some” pensioners will believe this … Not all pensioners voted NO!
I only want another referendum if it can be guaranteed not to be rigged by the British State again. To put it simply you cant guarantee that. The Brit Nats tore up the Edinburgh Agreement so called as it was the last time. It is also pretty damn clear that the Electoral Commission is next to useless.
On 50% of vote plus 50% of the seats amongst pro Indy parties I want the SNP to put it to the electorate straight next year
“If Westmidden doesn’t legislate for Devo to the effin Max within one year then Scotland goes UDI!”
The Brit Nats will give us nothing. To hell with arseing about with another Referendum.
“Only a minority (43.4%) want IndyRef 2 during the next Scottish parliamentary session (approximately the same thing as “within five years”). So you could argue that the headline might be true”
You really couldn’t. Sturgeon hasn’t put any timescale on the next referendum at all.
What the latest opinion polls show is that support for Indy is pretty much static at between 48% and 49%. The average since the referendum is 49%.
The last 10 polls average at 49% and September’s polls (4) also average at 49%. The average for all 2015 polls is 48%. Figures exclude don’t knows
The idea that support and momentum is growing is a false one.
Scotland has gone too far for the dead tree press to turn the tide of Independence. Dishonest reporting of polls and news may keep a few readers all warm and cuddly but the future is in the hands of our 12year olds and above.
In 4 years they will reach voting age. They will mature with the ideal of their ain wee Country and the concept of them NOT being the equal of any other countries’ citizens will seem as absurd as felling forests to read printed propaganda.
Gerry Parker
Are you aware that the Coatbridge public discussion is on YouTube?
firstminister.gov.scot/join/first-minister-live-youtube-stream/
Wonder how long it will be before the SNP are blamed for getting Corbyn elected ?.
The guy is toast in any event.I cannot see him lasting, judging by todays’ offerings at the T.U.C.
This is a very positive sign … a sign of them running scared (like pally wally Darling now). They probably thought that they were in total anti-SNP ‘propaganda’ control but Corbyn has probably thrown a spanner right in their ‘works’.
Tory detesters, in Scotland, will now see via the very public propaganda smears (or truths) aimed at Corbyn and Labour Party infighting / backstabbing that the Party is well and truly finished … totally fragmented.
As the Westminster Tories continue with their extreme austerity measures, EU in / out or not and warmongering etc etc some of their supporters may decide to abandon them.
End result = increased SNP popularity = Independence sooner than later.
Another great article from weegingerdug.
‘The Jezzajism and the earthquake that shakes Scotland loose.’
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2015/09/13/the-jezzajism-and-the-earthquake-that-shakes-scotland-loose/
These timescales, 3 years 5 years etc, don’t mean much in a global system unless they are synchronised – and right now that is impossible because the global system is not working and it is about to be changed.
The global system is being applied in the UK by the Tories – we’ve had 5 years of austerity for the poor and stellar wealth for the 1% – but it isn’t working. The poor have had enough and the Tory neo-Liberal balloon is about to burst so it HAS to change to avoid a repeat of the French Revolution – here in the UK.
The whole thing will be orchestrated by the IMF and every country will do it at the same time. The 1% will try to save their ass – as they say.
So Scotland is going to be part of that, but how these changes impact on the trajectory of Independence no one knows. But impact there will be.
One more thing. The 1% won’t tell us about it except with a storyline that makes them look good and is designed to persuade populations to go along with the changes.
Just remember – the story is never the story. On TV and in the papers, you will NEVER get the truth – only what they want you to hear.
@Lesley-Anne says: 15 September, 2015 at 3:32 pm:
“What we have here is in fact a precursor to the Daily Mail’s front page, any day now, appearing with the “VOW II!”
Do you mean an, “Arnie VOW”? Lesley-Anne?
Like, “I’m the VOW and I’ll be back?
This will be the correct answer to, “I’m the referendum vote and I’ll be back”.
Does anyone actually believe the Yes campaign got 45%?
Its a wee bit convenient that the number was 45 could it be linked to the 45 rebellion?
I am surprised the number 1746 didn’t come into the equation.( for the final boot in the nads).
The Scots will never find out the TRUE result, “as we are governed by the most corrupt, thieving disgusting bunch of parasites anywhere on gods earth.(excluding the 56).
Like anyone, I can take an honest defeat, but when something this important for a nation to vote on, was swayed by lies, ballot boxes in private taxis, voting papers going missing e.t.c.
I don’t think I am alone in saying we were robbed.
This native is getting FU*KING restless.
Hi Jack Murphy.
“Baron To Be,Alistair Darling WARNS ‘Scottish Labour’ NOT to move to the Left.”
I mentioned Captain Darling’s advice to my boss and pointed out that it was, in a way, ironic.
In the UK, we used to have the party of the right, and the party of the left. Darling has merely confirmed what most of us know; the party, that was of the left, has been, in recent years, a party of the right. How else would it need to be warned not to move to the left?
Methinks the Captain has inserted his size 9’s and current voters for Labour in Scotland may realise that they’ve been hoodwinked, since 1997.
Sorry not read posts yet, wrong know but Rev this one makes my blood boil!
Most of you will have seen the recent Denis Skinner interview on the Beeb that has been circulating on FB , interestingly it showed Denis biting back,off camera,on how the Beeb spin inaccurate statements.
Roden only confirms my long held understanding that the press do not deem it necessary to actually print the truth.
They have printed any $h@te they feel like for so long now,they do not appreciate we know it.They do not realise we are wiser and much more collective.
Who is still buying their rags ?
@blackhack says: 15 September, 2015 at 3:47 pm:
“Only two things ever true in that toilet paper of a “Newspaper”….. The Price, and the Date.
Nah! Blackhack, even the price is wrong as they give lots of copies away for free to boost their circulation figures.
I notice that the difference in the SNP constituency (53%) and list (42%) voting intentions is identical to the Green list vote (11%), might be a good idea to not be too antagonistic towards the SGP folks.
frogesque – now you’re talkin’!! Does my heart good.
Socrates MacSporran says
Quick Nicola, while they are targeting JC, declare UDI and go…
Sorry mate …UDI is never going to happen.
In truth, UDI can really only be declared if we have at least 85+% of the nation with us, and even then, it’s fairly ropey in the eyes of the world. We only roughly have 49-54% at the moment. We will never get 85+% …and we never will. It will be just over 70% tops. 30% of this nation will never vote for independence …so UDI is a no.
If Nicola declared ‘UDI’ tomorrow, you’ll practically have a one-sided civil war. While Pro-Indy campaigners would try and keep the peace, the lunatics that tore up George Square on the night of the 19th will come out in real force. You will end up with riots, and you will end with anyone wearing an SNP / Yes / Wings / Pro-Indy badge being physically attacked.
This has to be done sensibly. Cries of UDI is not the way to go. It actually damages the argument for independence. Rather than doing it sensibly, it makes us all out to be unhinged.
Instead, right now, we sit quietly and watch. The Tories will eventually roll out Austerity-Max, have EVEL in some sort of final form and then hit us with the threat of an EU Exit. The Labour Party will soon learn that Corbyn is not the great saviour, and if it is anything to go with Hilary Benn’s statement on the BBC News tonight, it seems that even Corbyn may look to an EU exit if the agreements that Cameron seeks are found wanting (which they will be). If Corbyn does that, then he will betray every worker in the UK, because at the end of the day, an EU exit spells terrible consequences to everyone’s working contract. It could mean your existing contract being torn up; re-written, or even heavily watered down (less holiday entitlements as an example). Folk would be screaming for an indy-Scotland if they believed their working contract was under threat while still being tied to Westminster.
Let the Tories and Labour do their thing. We just watch. Once people realise that the Westminster Parties are really about to screw with their lives, then the %’s will go up. But we need to be patient and just watch. That is why Nicola is staying quiet. Don’t interfere while your enemy is making mistakes.
But simply put …UDI is not the answer. And it never will be.
This question may languish her as another topic has just gone on but…
On the BBC website earlier there was a report of drone strike against the two cousins by UK and another report of a sanctioned US strike killing another un-named UK citizen earlier this summer.
It has now been over written by a story only reporting the two killed by UK drone. Tell me I have not just imagined this.
Unionists are in a state of blind panic. That is what has driven this headline, and drives a lot of the other guff we hear. The reaction is aimed at Scotland and they SNP, yet that is not where the source of threats to the Union come from at the moment!
Much of the blame for the situation lies at Cameron’s feet. He felt grandiose offers had to be made to win the referendum. Fair enough, that was his call. He lied, he had no intention of delivering.
Worse, he embarked on the EVEL nonsense.
We went into the referendum campaign several years ago where everyone knew the most popular option was DevoMax. We came out of the referendum having just voted for DevoMax. The Union had been secured by the obvious solution.
They walked away from their winning position.
Here’s the bit which I can’t get my head round. Why can’t the Unioinist see WHY the SNP are sweeping the boards and Indy support has increased by 5% in the last year?
There is no widespread YES movement currently campaigning against the Union and for independence. There is, however, a WM government which has lost the plot and is doing their utmost to destroy the Union they profess to hold dear.
Progress to Indy, but not in a way anyone expected twelve months ago!
O/T
Jock n Ninja (yew choob)we need tae get working oan rewording that Jim Reeves classic.
(When,s the date of the next Referendem)
I hear the Sound of Squeeky Bums.
@Iain More
We are always going to have to deal with the media and BBC state propaganda. Is the alternative to just give up ?
Look at it this way – Only a 6% swing is needed for a YES victory.
Younger voters coming though are likely to provide much of that in a few years time.
And a better question on its own could get us over the line.
“Should Scotland govern itself as an independent country?”
That is more accurate than:
“Should Scotland BE an independent country”
That could imply a degree of isolation to many.
Similarly, in an interdependent world, perhaps “sovereign nation” would be better than “independent country”.
Lollysmum.
Thanks for that.looking now.
@JLT says: 15 September, 2015 at 6:17 pm:
“Sorry mate …UDI is never going to happen.
In truth, UDI can really only be declared if we have at least 85+% of the nation with us, and even then, it’s fairly ropey in the eyes of the world.”
Do you understand the meaning of the word, “Unilateral”, JLT?
By definition, therefore, to be unilateral a declaration of any kind must be from only, (believe it or not), one side, party, or faction.
As the seekers for independence, who vote for independence in a referendum, are cross-party and from all other walks of life in Scotland, (and not even all Scottish born), it cannot legally be a Unilateral declaration.
Why the hell did you imagine the Unionists, MSM and State Broadcasters keep insisting that everything is just the SNP? Like, for example, those claims made by that fundraiser for Carmichael’s defence. Like the constant claims the YES campaign was run and funded by the SNP. Like the claims that every nut-job that uses abuse on Twitter are SNP members. These people I the Establishment are not daft and have been using distortions of word meanings as propaganda since the Romans left Britain.
Now I’m not saying that such a declaration would be a good idea. Just that it could not actually be a unilateral declaration.
Robert Peffers
Hi Robert
I do understand it, Robert. What I’m talking about is the usual cries that we see from people who want ‘UDI now!’ Personally, that is just not going to happen. As I mentioned, I think cries of it from those who support independence, actually damage the campaign overall. Simply put, there is no way Nicola is going to declare UDI, and nor on the basis of a poll that hints that 50% of Scotland now wants independence.
The point I was making is that the cries for UDI will do Scotland no good if it came to pass. If such a move was performed by the SG in declaring it, then the consequences would be awful. We would have severe rioting from those that support the Union. Rather than UDI healing a nation, it would severely split it, leaving us with a nation brimming with bad blood. The pain of it all would be with us for a very long time.
My personal view is to dismiss UDI altogether. Patience through persuading people; even if it takes longer than we thought, is the way to winning independence. I believe that any talk of UDI being discussed in posts or forums should be ended very quickly.
@Onwards says: 15 September, 2015 at 7:08 pm:
“Younger voters coming though are likely to provide much of that in a few years time.”
PISH! First of all corrected figures show that there was little difference between the proportions of NO voters among the more elderly and the most recently franchised voters in the referendum.
Second of all, you are assuming far too much. Most people’s political views change as they mature. There are many thousands of present day right-wing Labour voters who joined the Labour Party after having once been card carrying members of the communist party. Other left wing Labourites have become Red Tories. People tend to become more, (small c), conservative with age.
The obvious conclusion is that a proportion of those pre-pension age people of all parties will be changing their views too.
They are thus going to be replacing the ones you keep wishing dead. I know a recently retired Labour Councillor who started out as an IRA supporting guy in his late teens, an SNP supporter as a young 20s voter, then became a communist and finally joined the Labour Party and eventually got elected as a Labour councillor.
“Similarly, in an interdependent world, perhaps “sovereign nation” would be better than “independent country”.
Quite obviously you don’t know the true legality of the situation. In spite of the fact what Westminster has always assumed sovereignty over Scotland they do not in fact do so.
Until 1688 the legal system of the three country Kingdom of England was, “The Divine Right of Kings”. When the English Glorious Revolution of 1688 deposed their monarchy, (their monarch was also the independent King of Scots), the parliament removed from the imported William & Mary of Orange the royal veto over the English Parliament.
This made the Kingdom of England a, “Constitutional Monarchy”. However, it also began the, “Jacobite Uprisings”, as the Kingdom of Scotland was still independent and had not deposed the shared Monarch. England then just assumed they had Sovereignty over Scotland. Which was why they forced Scotland into the Treaty Of Union. Why would they need a Treaty of Union if they already had sovereignty?
They have gone on assuming sovereignty ever since but the Treaty of Union saw Scots insisting upon the inclusion of several Articles Of Union including those that retained the Scottish Independent Legal System, The Freedom of Religion with the Monarch NOT Head of the Church, and the Independent Education System and the right to both the Pound Sterling and to print their own sterling Scottish Bank Notes.
Now Scottish law, from at least 1320, was that the people of Scotland, and not the monarch, were sovereign. It still is today. What that means legally is that when the Scots elect a member to parliament they delegate that person their legal sovereignty but when the voters of England, Wales and Northern Ireland elect a member they are delegating the Monarch’s sovereignty.
At no point in history have the people of Scotland ever given away their sovereignty. In fact there have been several Claims of Right where they re-asserted their sovereignty. 1689 & 1989, if memory serves. So the Westminster sovereignty over Scotland only holds good as long as the Sovereign people of Scotland allow their elected delegates at Westminster to represent them. If we, the sovereign people, demand that they remove themselves from Westminster then they have no legal mandate to represent us there. Now note this – Nicola Sturgeon has publically stated that a claim for a referendum is not up to the Scottish Government but is the remit of the people of Scotland – Do you think that is just a coincidence?
O/T
How to pick ah pocket or two.
http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10206273416106465&set=pcb.10206273429826808&type=1&theater
Anyone else get the feeling that the polls, the referendum, and the General election result don’t seem to add up?
@JLT says: 15 September, 2015 at 8:02 pm:
“I do understand it, Robert. What I’m talking about is the usual cries that we see from people who want ‘UDI now!’ Personally, that is just not going to happen.”
Well you certainly do not seem to understand, (any more than those others using the initials UDI), that what you appear to be claiming and what I’m talking about is NOT UDI. As I pointed out to be unilateral it has to be the illegal declaration of a distinct faction, party or whatever group against the sovereign authority.
A withdrawing of our elected Westminster representatives after a legal democratic referendum is not UDI. Have you not realised yet that this Westminster Establishment claim of sovereignty is actually illegal under Scottish law and the World recognises that Scottish legal jurisdiction is independent?
I’ll prove it for you. When the USA attempted to hold the Lockerbie bomber’s trial under USA law under which the Yanks can prosecute anyone anywhere under USA law if it involves a USA citizen or USA property, (as in the Aircraft involved).
They failed to do so as the crime happened under Scottish jurisdiction. Then The UK Government also failed to claim the case. The solution was a load of crap but the trial was conducted under Scottish Law in what was declared temporary Scottish territory. Yes I know it was a disgrace but it was legally acceptable under international law.
So Scottish law is still independent and accepted by the international authorities. Now the second point is that Scottish law, since at least 1329, (Declaration of Arbroath), is based upon the fact that the People of Scotland are sovereign.
Westminster persists in browbeating Scots that their law is sovereign and it is – in England, Wales and Northern Ireland only. I’ll show you another example. When Westminster ruled that private people in the UK could clamp vehicles and demand money to have the vehicle released they applied this law to the entire UK.
The Scottish courts then ruled that as the people of Scotland were sovereign then they owned Scotland just as Her Majesty owns the rest of the UK. As they owned Scotland they have right to roam and thus if anyone clamped their vehicle and demanded money to release the vehicle the clampers were liable to be charged with demanding money with menace. Their correct procedure is to prove the parked vehicle’s person in charge had damaged the private ground’s owners in some way in a civil action in court.
Remember that the Scottish wars of independence were due to yet another in a long line of the English claiming sovereignty over Scotland and the Scots refusing to accept English domination and the Establishment is still at it today?
@Robert Peffers,
There have been numerous polls and surveys showing support for the union increases with the age brackets. This makes sense if you think about it.
Older folks were brought up in a post war era where British identity was strongest.
Younger people are now brought up with a Scottish Parliament, and it is increasingly normal that political decisions are made here. A higher percentage of old people also take newspapers instead of getting more balanced news and opinion from the Internet.
I hope more pensioners can be persuaded to vote Yes in a second referendum, but recognise that many old folks are simply stuck in their ways..
It’s not about wishing anyone dead, it is simply accepting that opinions and identities change over time. Look at the issue of gay marriage. There’s another example where there is a large age gap in opinion because of changing times and modern media.
Regarding sovereignty, yes the people are sovereign in Scotland but the parliament is not, so how effective is that in reality? We have to vote for a sovereign parliament to actually get things done.
MP’s simply withdrawing from Westminster without a mandate for independence just isn’t going to happen.
I just think the referendum question could have been better. Perhaps the word ‘independent’ has too many meanings, not all of them good. It may have played into the separatist accusations of the No campaign.. What would we be independent from, some might have thought..?
The UK, Europe, NATO, the UN etc?
Many people want Scotland to be self-governing, not isolated, and perhaps a better phrasing could have reflected that.
Onwards at 10.24
“Independent” has only one meaning. The fact that our enemies are trying to distort that should make it all the more important that we resist the nonsense and use it as it is meant as often as possible.
On Scotland Tonight background murmuring, they were spinning that poll as “one-third of Scots are less likely to vote SNP if another referendum is included in the manifesto”.
They neglected to mention the one-third MORE likely to vote SNP if ref 2 in manifesto.
A poster another thread saying it feels like Indy ref 2 is underway already “project fear 2”.
Yes, I think so. I’ve donned full metal jacket and am in the mode.
Robert has proved quite nicely that Scotland was never a colony – which should put an end to the line that it is ‘anti-imperialist’ to support breaking away and also to Ms Sturgeon’s inflated claim that her ‘struggle’ is like Nelson Mandela’s.
“The idea that support and momentum is growing is a false one.”
That relies on you being very selective with your data. A week ago the picture would have been very different. But the fact is that over the long term there’s been a swing of almost 5% in a year.