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The Stockholm Troopers

Posted on April 28, 2020 by

Anyone up for their taxes being used to bail out Scottish newspapers?

No, we didn’t think so.

It’s always a bit weird when the very people who are ostensibly least well-served by Scotland and the UK’s media – in this case middle-class Trotskyist pro-independence “anarchists” – suddenly call for multibillionaire media barons to be bailed out by the taxpayer so they can keep spewing misinformation, hatred, celebrity gossip and yesterday’s Twitter spats into the public sphere.

Because the cold hard fact is that the death of all newspapers would be the greatest service any virus has ever done to mankind. The day of the printed press is past, and it’s long past time the zombie corpse accepted inevitable reality and shuffled off into the sunset.

It’s at this point in the debate that both the zombies themselves and those who wish to one day become those zombies pipe up about how much we actually need the press, and won’t someone please think of all the local-newspaper stalwarts dutifully reporting on local scandals and whatever, etc etc.

It is, after all, primarily the politics and bin-raking showbiz hacks we all despise, and is it fair that they get to soil all the honest grafters filling the other pages? No, it’s not. But nature abhors a vacuum, and the gap left by the death of the printed press would be filled just as swiftly as any other. And it’s difficult to construct any plausible scenario in which the replacement wouldn’t be better.

Earlier this month, we noticed a couple of well-fattened old newspaper hacks (and a pompous young wannabe) bitterly bemoaning that sites like this one – well, specifically this one – had raised too much money to carry out journalism. The horror!

Leask, a deranged obsessive McCarthyite lunatic recently deemed surplus to the badly-struggling Herald and tragically suffering under the misapprehension that he’s any sort of arbiter of “credibility”, wailed that the funds raised by Wings in the last six years hadn’t been wasted on pursuing the failed and broken business model that has seen thousands of UK journalists laid off in the same period and most of the rest subject to real-terms pay cuts and toxic working practices.

But that’s because Wings has used the money donated by its readers for the purpose it was donated for – to provide focused journalism in a specific field in order to provide its readers with some semblance of balance.

Not, we should note, by BEING balanced. Unlike many Scottish newspapers, Wings Over Scotland makes no embarrassingly false pretence of impartiality. We wear our editorial stance on our sleeve, but we link to the source of every single factual claim so that readers can judge whether we’re presenting things fairly – something almost no Scottish newspaper ever does, even on their websites.

Readers seeking balance can then read a site or sites with opposing views and decide which one makes the most convincing case – it is, of course, not actually possible to do this regarding the constitution in Scotland with newspapers currently, since they all have the same view.

(We’ve always pointed out that human beings are intrinsically biased, so expecting “balance” within a single publication is a fantasy. Even when newspapers offer a token column to opposing views, it’s one page a week out of maybe 500, and the mere fact of it being an opinion page invites readers to disregard it. If this site lost its mind and gave 800 words to Euan McColm or Brian Wilson once a month amid our usual diet of non-stop vile cybernattery, it wouldn’t suddenly magically become “balanced”.)

Honest partisanship is a far more credible and moral endeavour than fake impartiality, which is a big part of the reason why trust in the traditional media is so disastrously low while new media sites continue to thrive even despite existing in an extraordinarily hostile environment, where politicians and media alike constantly seek to destroy them by any means possible for upsetting their cosy symbiotic relationship.

But how, wail the old hacks, will this new media be funded and sustained? Without a kindly and philanthropist billionaire benefactor like Rupert Murdoch or an avalanche of ad money, how will the poor journalists pay the rent in order to provide these views?

Yet we know the answer to that. Trust is priceless but journalism is actually very cheap to sustain when it no longer has to pay for big shiny glass offices and printing presses and distribution networks (and wildly overpaid columnists, of which Scottish media has more than you might imagine).

Wings not only pays for its journalistic output but also for a campaigning operation, off the back of donations averaging just £1 a week from roughly 1% of its readers. And for that modest contribution readers have had an average of over 50 articles a month for the 100 months the site has existed. (Less than 0.09p per article per reader.)

But that’s far from the only model. YouTube vloggers – who are a type of journalist – make a range of incomes from modest to colossal, mainly through ad revenue. Others use paywalled subscription models. Others still use the likes of Patreon. Some avail themselves of various sorts of grants, or use combinations of the above.

But whatever the model, the free market has shown that it will support those who offer a high-quality online service to their readers, whether their work is serious or frivolous, whether they cover politics or sport or culture or fashion or any other subject.

(It’s a little surprising that the right-wing press isn’t more admiring of such pioneering entrepreneurs, and equally odd that the left-wing press is so intolerant of such an exemplar of socialism in action, whereby wealthier readers fund the service for those unable to afford it. The 99% of Wings readers who don’t contribute financially still get to read the whole of the site for free, without having to endure a single advertisement, because of the generosity of the 1%. And all of that is entirely voluntary, organic and spontaneous, with no taxation or state coercion whatsoever.)

The financial model of such sites is also remarkably resilient, specifically because non-print journalism has such a low cost overhead when set in the context of sizeable readerships. And if Wings (say) upsets a percentage of its readers by criticising the SNP, or if Craig Murray (say) takes a somewhat challenging position on the Skripal case, the overwhelming statistical probability is that most of the readers storming off in a huff will be people who weren’t paying anyway.

(Because it follows that people prepared to pay to support honest journalism are more inclined to accept that an honest person won’t always agree with them on everything – indeed, that they almost certainly won’t.)

Independent journalism is a meritocracy – so long as you can build a decent audience by doing good work, even a tiny fraction of it putting its money where its mouth is will pay the bills. It’s the polar ideological opposite of government bailing out deservedly-failed commercial businesses with public money without the taxpayer being consulted, and anyone calling for the latter should be treated with the greatest suspicion.

It’s quite bad enough that the media is already beholden to advertisers and wealthy proprietors without adding politicians to the list of bosses they have to serve too.

This also seems like an appropriate time to bring up the fact that Wings does NOT currently intend to hold an annual fundraiser this year (we’d be due one in June).

We’ve been on a frankly overdue and much-needed holiday for the last three months. It was originally intended to be two until COVID-19 intervened and all but obliterated normal politics, but more pertinently we see no realistic possibility of independence on the horizon under the current SNP leadership, and therefore no point in exhausting ourselves for nothing. We’d rather recharge our batteries and be refreshed and ready for the fight should one unexpectedly arise.

The Wings Fighting Fund is in a healthy condition, and lies ready to spring into action should there be a change in circumstances. It can certainly bear the site’s operating costs – webhosting, cartoons, the odd opinion poll or two and perhaps a substantially reduced editor’s wage – for the next year while things hopefully become clearer.

(If they don’t, readers will be consulted on how to proceed.)

This position may be reconsidered according to any of a number of possible events, but as of now (and indeed for some time) it’s the plan, so you may feel inclined to divert any money you may have had earmarked for Wings to other very worthy causes.

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Willie

Restricting voting to postal voting is outrageous.

For it to be promoted by Sturgeon it exposes her for the Gaultier she is.

And trials without juries too had she got her way?

Sensibledave

Cammy

… I was going to let it go but then you wrote this:

“Brexit largely articulates English racism and intolerance of other cultures. You’re hopeless at his honesty lark, eh?”

Are you so thick and lacking in self awareness that you cannot see any problem with that statement. Do I need to point it out again? You just a group of people that are citizens of a particular country, you then ascribed entirely negative traits to those people as a group.

That is the very definition of racism you complete fool.

You are a pseudo intellectual bigot sir.

Dorothy Devine

Cirsium, with an endorsement from Trump perhaps not!

CameronB Brodie

Dog biscuit
You really don’t appear to be competent to be encouraging policy directions, and you display a distinct ego in doing so. An ego that is incapable of empathising with the needs of others. We don’t know the prevalence of this pathogen, so we lack sufficient knowledge to effectively judge the safety of the environment. Liberty does not imply freedom to do harm to others. A legal point that Westminster appears to be ignoring (see Brexit).

Resisting the Scaffold: Self-Preservation and
Limits of Obligation in Hobbes’s Leviathan

link to uoguelph.ca

Famous15

Sensibledave you could set your statements as a challenge question in an exam on sophistry!

CameronB Brodie

Sensibledave
Own it dave. 😉

Ethnic and Racial Studies
Volume 42, 2019 – Issue 14: Special Issue: Racial nationalisms: borders, refugees and the cultural politics of belonging

Racism and Brexit: notes towards an antiracist populism
link to tandfonline.com

Sarah

@CBB: P

CameronB Brodie

Sarah
I’m just understand how race, class, and gender interact. Radical or what? 🙂

Minority Report
Race and Class in post-Brexit Britain

link to runnymedetrust.org

Dog biscuit

Listen to this foolCBB as he sits in judgment of everyone while he affects victimhood. If its pop psychology you want what about a wee man for whom the only Earthly power left to him is to abuse peole on line who disagree with him.We all make judgments of course so its time you owned your behaviour. Meally mouthed forked tongue inconsistent intellectual line delusions of grandiloquence on line.Are you mature enough to own any of that ? Far too many holier than thee types on here like you Cam sron.

Bob W

Dogfoodboy

“You dont win over anyone by abusing them .Your more likely to turn people off.“

You appear to ignore your own advice.

Dog biscuit

Oh of course you can have your little thing here but without the freedom of association you might as well piss down each others backs and call it climate change.

Republicofscotland

So the Home Office hasn’t even bothered to respond to letter from the Scottish government during this pandemic. Is anyone really surprised that a foreign nation that controls who can live in another country (Scotland) has ignored its government.

We really do need to exit this ball and chain of a union.

Dog biscuit

Youre right Bob but I am in exasperated dispair at the lack of enquiry evident on this site. And also when Im being abused for disagreeing with the orthodox thinkers on here I have a right of relaliation.Why is it alright for Wingers to abuse newcomers but its out of order when newcomer stands up for himself?Especially when Newcomer bests you.

CameronB Brodie

I’m also incapable of effective proof reading, apparently.

My desire for Scotland’s self-determination, is grounded in the fundamental moral obligation of self-preservation.

England’s desire for self-determination is grounded in collective narssacism. Simples.

Collective Narcissism: Political Consequences of Investing Self?Worth in the Ingroup’s Image
link to onlinelibrary.wiley.com

CameronB Brodie

Dog biscuit
So your another who feels their prejudice superior to ethical rationalism?

Sensibledave

Cammy

…. keep going sunshine. Everything you write demonstrates your innate bigotry. Your latest ….

“England’s desire for self-determination is grounded in collective narssacism. Simples“

You are an absolute star Cammy!

You are not even getting any support from the “it’s not the English people, it’s Westminster” crew!

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

Don’t we all have a moral and ethical duty to call out obvious bullshit when we see/hear it?

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
Totally agree. 😉

CameronB Brodie

Sensibledave
My judgement is grounded in science, philosophy, and law. Yours appears to be grounded in cultural prejudice associated with the bio-social construction of our identities. Own it. Mkay!

The Relationship between the Brexit Vote and Individual Predictors of Prejudice: Collective Narcissism, Right Wing Authoritarianism, Social Dominance Orientation
link to frontiersin.org

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

Good, thanks.

Would you also agree that that is what Cirsium, Dog Biscuit, Breastplate, myself and others have been *trying* to do over the past weeks? (i.e. do you accept that we are acting ‘in good faith’?)

Sensibledave

Famous 15

… I’m all ears sir. Which of my arguments are based upon sophistry?

If you are going to raise me pursuance of CBB and his bigotry … don’t waste your time. He is the worse type of bigot. He accuses others of bigotry whilst demonstrating publicly, and leaving no one in any doubt, he is a bigot.

jfngw

Deapite my criticism today I was imagining what the death rate would be in Scotland if we were totally run from Westminster, it would be worse than England and they would expect it to be. It would have been used as a benchmark to indicate how well they were doing in England.

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
Totally, apart from the dog. I’m not sure you appreciate how contagious covid is, or picked up on the ethical imperative of stopping the spread of a pathogen that has the potential to significantly disrupt global health security. There are times we have to give up our liberty in order to be able to enjoy liberty. A paradox we simply can’t escape.

We would not be in this situation if HMG had responded appropriately in the first place. They were criminally negligent instead.

CameronB Brodie

“If you are going to raise me pursuance of CBB and his bigotry … ”

Says the Englishman who rejects John Locke. 🙂

Blair Paterson

The way some of you insult each other on here is likea school playground for goodness sake grow up you know the saying no one is right all the time and no one is wrong all the time so accept that people have different views to you but that is no reason to insult them another old saying is Good manners shineth forth on the darkest days also civility costs nothing and I notice most on here who insult are not brave enough to give their real full name. Enough said

CameronB Brodie

Blair Paterson
Right-wing populism has no moral justification. Have you never niggled anyone to get them to react the way you want?

Sensibledave

Blair

If you find any evidence of me negatively stereotyping the people of Scotland, then I would deserve admonishment. But you won’t, because I don’t.

Cammy, unapologetically and continuously, smears the people of my country. You may not see any difference between Cammy defaming all the people of a particular country (particularly those who are white apparently) and me seeking to admonish Cammy for doing it – but sorry, I do. He is a pseudo intellectual bigot I’m afraid.

Patrick Roden

Just back from a wee shopping trip in Dundee and the streets are busier than I’ve seen them since lockdown began.

Dog biscuit

So Cameron reveals his sleekit nature. Blair Correct. I do put myself across in a brutal fashion ,but my main concern IS for our democratic rights and freedoms.Blair my name is Patrick .and right now I believe we face a greater threat than disease .

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB (1.02) –

‘There are times we have to give up our liberty in order to be able to enjoy liberty. A paradox we simply can’t escape.’

That’s a striking statement. Most would only agree if it’s clear that we are ‘giving up liberty’ for good reason. We would have to know that the reason has been tested, examined, double, triple-checked. It would surely be criminal to act before being absolutely sure of the ‘truth’.

And that’s why so many are refusing to accept the current restrictions on liberty and use terms like ‘house arrest’ to describe what’s happening.

Do you accept that the ‘truth’ in this case has not yet been determined?

CameronB Brodie

Sensibledave
These are the intellectual authorities who you’re upset with dave, I’m simply the messenger. Brexit is inescapably grounded in right-wing authoritarianism and xenophobia. Own it dave.

1Goldsmiths, University of London, London, United Kingdom
2Instituto Universitário de Lisboa (ISCTE-IUL), Cis-IUL, Lisbon, Portugal
3Department of Psychology, University of Social Sciences and Humanities, Poznan, Poland
4Católica Lisbon School of Business and Economics, Universidade Católica Portuguesa, Lisbon, Portugal

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
The scientific evidence suggests our knowledge is insufficient to judge the environment safe yet, due to a lack of systematic testing and tracing. According to the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine, anyway. Do you have a more reliable opinion that suggests otherwise?

CameronB Brodie

Dog biscuit
Nah, I’ve studied moral philosophy, political science, and stuff. Right-wing populism supports inequality, racism, and authoritarianism. It can not be justified morally.

Stuart MacKay

Dog biscuit @9:33 am

> Cameron debating with you is like arguing with a speak your weight machine

And since when has a weight machine not spoken the truth? You may not want to hear it but the machine is always right!

lothianlad

We would not be in this situation if HMG had responded appropriately in the first place. They were criminally negligent instead.

very true Mr. brodie.

Dog biscuit

Giving up liberty in order to save liberty is as psychopathic as the late Genaral Westmoreland, commander of US forces in Vietnam, who declared that in order to save people they had to be bombed. And to suggest there is no other alternative displays Camerons usual impoverishment of mind and imagination.You’re such a conformist .The chaps who ran the death camps were also conformists.

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

‘Do you have a more reliable opinion that suggests otherwise?’

No, I don’t. I’m not interested in ‘opinions’. I want facts.

Where are you getting yours?

At 1.02 you wrote:

‘I’m not sure you appreciate how contagious covid is…’

Okay, I don’t ‘appreciate’ it, perhaps because I don’t have whatever data makes you so convinced.

Any chance you could share it?

Dog biscuit

Stuart Mckay machines are programed.And do you also believe our people are in good honest hands?You accept official narrative without question?

Dog biscuit

Cameron,right wing populism seems to be supporting your smug overweening sense of yourself.Heil!

CameronB Brodie

Stuart MacKay
Steady on, I’m human so my judgement is fallible. 😉

Ethical Rationalism and the Law
The Past, Present and Future of Ethical Rationalism.

link to researchgate.net

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
“No, I don’t. I’m not interested in ‘opinions’. I want facts.”

The science is developing, along with the body of ‘facts’. The opinion you appear happy to reject, IS EXPERT OPINION based on the available science.

“Any chance you could share it?”

I have, on numerous occasions, which appear to have escaped your attention. Sorry if that sounds shirty.

CameronB Brodie

Dog biscuit 😉

Dog biscuit

Cameron, I dont want to patronise you but I feel I must you see there are various ways to acquire knowledge chief among them lived experience but of a secondary importance learning by rote as you do from text books .You pretend to nuance but dont recognise it in those you disagree with .Perhaps hiding behind your legalese is the very fascist you despise?Some more pop psychology for your safe space.

Dog biscuit

Sleekit little cow of a man.

CameronB Brodie

Dog biscuit
You have absolutely no appreciation of the life I’ve lived and the lessons I’ve learnt. So you’re perhaps more up yourself than you’re able to recognise. 😉

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

Yes, it does sound shirty, which is interesting – not like you to get short-tempered. I still want to see the facts, as will others who, for whatever reason, haven’t read everything you’ve posted in the past month.

So I ask again – please tell us where you are sourcing ‘facts’ (not ‘opinions’) about covid. Just one sourced fact would be very welcome. Let’s stick to the example you raised i.e. how contagious it is…

How contagious is it?

James

“sensibledave” ….problem is though, you’re a Tory arsehole.

CameronB Brodie

Rather more contagious than your average cold and flu. So breaking the transmission chains is vital to speeding up the solution (see South Africa). Here’s an audio interview with the editors of the New England Journal of Medicine, talking about the health implications of lock-down and the need for systematic testing and tracing.

Audio Interview: Loosening Covid-19 Restrictions
The rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2, a novel coronavirus that emerged in late 2019, and the resulting Covid-19 disease has been labeled a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by the World Health Organization. What physicians need to know about transmission, diagnosis, and treatment is the subject of ongoing updates from infectious disease experts at the Journal.

In this audio interview conducted on April 29, 2020, the editors discuss strategies to limit transmission of SARS-CoV-2 as restrictions are loosened and economies restart around the world.

link to nejm.org

CameronB Brodie

That last one was for you Ian, obvs. 😉

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

We’re getting closer.

Only the first nine words of your answer were responding to my question and, forgive me being blunt, but I don’t any scientific language or supporting evidence.

‘Rather more contagious than your average cold and flu.’

Is that it? Seriously?

mike cassidy

Ian

An average coronavirus patient infects at least 2 others. To end the pandemic, that crucial metric needs to drop below 1 — here’s how we get there.

link to archive.is

CameronB Brodie

mike cassidy
Thanks. 😉

callmedave

BBC now giving all the 4 countries data for today.

All deaths for Scotland, Wales and N. Ireland include out of hospital deaths.

But only hospital deaths so far for England are given.

* out of hospital deaths for England today still to be added
to the table below

Scotland……….today…..40………Total……..1515
Wales………….today…..17………Total………925
N. Ireland……..today…..04………Total………365
England………..today…*352………Total……*20488
=========================================================
UK…………….today….***………Total……*20483

David

Regarding the press we cant get out to buy a paper

AberdeenPict

mike cassidy says:
1 May, 2020 at 3:12 pm
Ian

An average coronavirus patient infects at least 2 others. To end the pandemic, that crucial metric needs to drop below 1 — here’s how we get there.

link to archive.is

I think what Ian is asking is not how to stop the spread of the virus. We could stop the spread of a normal flu strain if we all stayed at home and self isolated. I think he, and myself as well are wondering how contagious this virus is compared to the normal flu, other Covid strains and Ebola etc. Not how deadly, but how contagious. You don’t see many of these comparisons in the news of the usual daily briefing form Downing Street.

Dan

@callmedave

Such are the times be very careful you don’t get classed as a bigot like DCI Hamcheek in this tweet thread, because I suspect The Modern Pathologist might have something to say about those “death” figures.

link to twitter.com

It’s most likely hate speech to misrepresent whether someone chooses to be considered alive or dead.

Ian Brotherhood

@Mike Cassidy –

Cheers for that.

Here’s another piece which directly addresses the issue of contagiousness.

Dunno if it means we can agree that covid is ‘rather more’ contagious than ‘normal’ flus – what do you think?

(This was contained within an article I don’t want to link-to right now because it is densely packed with hyperlinks to medical papers, far too much to expect anyone to take in at one go.)

link to medrxiv.org

Patrick Roden

in defense of CBB, it would be very difficult to source genuine peer-reviewed academic papers about covid19 this early, and any information we are getting, even from scientists, is being shot down in flames because (we later find out) said scientist is working for the government or some caper like that.

The early signs are that covid19 is far more contagious than the flu and since we do not yet have either vaccination or cure the only way that we can really attempt to tackle it is through isolation or herd immunity.

People who argue for no restrictions aren’t pushing against lockdown, they are pushing for herd immunity in which we all get the virus, and then as a population, we build immunity to the virus naturally.

Better known as the kill off the old buggers and long term disabled approach to fighting the virus.

I say that (jokingly) because unless you have vaccinations then the belief that this virus would be killed off by our collective immunity is simply unscientific.

The herd immunity approach would literally sign a death warrant for every elderly person who lives in a care home and every person who has a long-standing health condition.

It would possibly decimate the over 70’s even those in good health.

Dog biscuit

To the best of my knowledge covid death rates have always been projected figuers . When prof Ferguson revised his innitiak projected death rate from 500,000 down to 25,000. Those figures within a few days of each other .Computer modelling is not hard science yet the decision to lockdown made immediately. I really wish some of you can see past your party and social prejudices. If we are being taken for mugs having to bargain back curtailed freedom wouldnt you want to know thus?Again I ask you to wonder why Swedens approach appears less deadly than UKs. Cameron,Sweden is nominally socialist as are you.

Ian Brotherhood

@Patrick Roden –

‘The early signs are that covid19 is far more contagious than the flu.’

Just to prove that CamB isn’t being picked upon, I ask you too Patrick – where are the ‘signs’ you refer to?

Dog biscuit

Computer modelling ‘crap in = crap out ‘ .

Doug
Colin Alexander

link to covid19.sciensano.be

FACT SHEET
COVID-19 disease (SARS-CoV-2 virus)

22 April 2020

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
The science suggests covid is roughly two to three times more contagious than seasonal flu. The pathogen is also mutating, so the threat it poses can’t easily be pinned down. That highlights why science needs to be supported by ethics, which isn’t next to Sussex. 😉

Full text.

Theoretical Models and Operational Frameworks in Public Health Ethics

Abstract
The article is divided into three sections: (i) an overview of the main ethical models in public health (theoretical foundations); (ii) a summary of several published frameworks for public health ethics (practical frameworks); and (iii) a few general remarks. Rather than maintaining the superiority of one position over the others, the main aim of the article is to summarize the basic approaches proposed thus far concerning the development of public health ethics by describing and comparing the various ideas in the literature. With this in mind, an extensive list of references is provided.

Keywords:
ethics, public health, utilitarianism, personalism, foundations, models, frameworks

link to ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Ian Brotherhood

@Patrick Roden –

‘…it would be very difficult to source genuine peer-reviewed academic papers about covid19 this early.’

Of course, because there hasn’t been anywhere near enough time for the peer-review process to happen.

But we can source medical ‘preprints’ i.e. papers which haven’t yet been submitted for peer review. This site currently has over 2,500 (goes to check…aye, that’s right enough) over 2,500 papers dealing with COVID-19 SARS-CoV-2.

link to connect.medrxiv.org

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

You’re doing it again…

‘The science suggests covid is roughly two to three times more contagious than seasonal flu.’

Does it?

Where?

CameronB Brodie

Which ties in with a world view that respects the phenomenological component of human nature and moral judgement.

Morphological Rationalism and the Psychology of Moral Judgment

Abstract

According to rationalism regarding the psychology of moral judgment, people’s moral judgments are generally the result of a process of reasoning that relies on moral principles or rules. By contrast, intuitionist models of moral judgment hold that people generally come to have moral judgments about particular cases on the basis of gut-level, emotion-driven intuition, and do so without reliance on reasoning and hence without reliance on moral principles.

In recent years the intuitionist model has been forcefully defended by Jonathan Haidt. One important implication of Haidt’s model is that in giving reasons for their moral judgments people tend to confabulate – the reasons they give in attempting to explain their moral judgments are not really operative in producing those judgments. Moral reason-giving on Haidt’s view is generally a matter of post hoc confabulation.

Against Haidt, we argue for a version of rationalism that we call ‘morphological rationalism.’ We label our version ‘morphological’ because according to it, the information contained in moral principles is embodied in the standing structure of a typical individual’s cognitive system, and this morphologically embodied information plays a causal role in the generation of particular moral judgments.

The manner in which the principles play this role is via ‘proceduralization’ – such principles operate automatically. In contrast to Haidt’s intuitionism, then, our view does not imply that people’s moral reason-giving practices are matters of confabulation. In defense of our view, we appeal to what we call the ‘nonjarring’ character of the phenomenology of making moral judgments and of giving reasons for those judgments.

link to link.springer.com

Patrick Roden

@ Ian Brotherhood:

Then why would you ask another poster to provide evidence of infection rates when you have access to so much material yourself?

Or do the papers you mention not cover infection rates?

Or do the papers you mention assume a high rate of infection because the World Health Organisation calls Covid19 a ‘pandemic’ and if Who is calling it a pandemic they are probably right.

A pandemic by its nature has to be something that is highly contagious.

So as I mentioned, the ‘early signs’ are that the virus is highly contagious.

Colin Alexander

SARS-Cov-2 (cCoronvirus): “The basic reproductive number, the so-called R0, of the virus is thought to be between 2-4 meaning that in a fully susceptible population, one infected individual will on average infect 2-4 others in the absence of control measures”.

——————————–

Twenty-four studies reported 47 seasonal epidemic R(eproductive) values.

The median R value for seasonal influenza was 1.28 (IQR: 1.19-1.37). Four studies reported six novel influenza R values. Four out of six R values were <1. "

link to researchgate.net
———————————————

So it seems SARS-Covid-2 is approximately twice as infectious.

In that an infected person is likely on average to smit twice as many people as an "average" flu.

Which may be different from how likely you are to become infected from exposure from x amount of virus for x amount of time.

Colin Alexander

Cameron is right when he says studies show SARS-Covid-2 (Coronavirus) is roughly two or three times more infectious than your average seasonal flu.

jfngw

The contagion level prior to lockdown is reported to be calculated as just under 4 in the UK by Imperial college (BBC report), the normal flu is between 1.2 – 1.6 (wikipedia). The R0 varies with conditions, lockdown has reduced this to under 1 (about 0.7). It can never be reduced to 0 without a vaccine.

But with a R0 of 4 then after 10 iterations 1 person has spread this to over 260,000 people, 1000 cases at this rate would infect the whole UK population after 10 iterations, obviously this would never be reached as the R number will drop the more people have been infected.

Without a vaccine this virus never goes away, it will hang around forever as nobody is born with immunity.

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
Skepticism is healthy but not if it means you reject knowledge that would enhance your chances of survival. The general medical opinion is that covid is as contagious as Mike, Patrick, and myself have suggested.

“When will it be over?”: An introduction to
viral reproduction numbers, R0 and Re
April 14, 2020

link to cebm.net

CameronB Brodie

And Colin Alexander. 🙂

Colin Alexander

As a comparison, ESTIMATES show: The Swine Flu H1N1 Influenza virus from 2009 had a Reproduction number in the UK of 1.33 and in Singapore circa. 2.0.

link to bmcinfectdis.biomedcentral.com

Patrick Roden

As I post this comment WHO is making a live statement:

They have just confirmed that they still consider Covid19 an international health emergency.

“we have too little knowledge on the transmission of the virus”

It seems that only Donald Trump, a few well armed right-wing Americans, and a few Wings poster, still think that this virus can’t harm us.

Ian Brotherhood

@Patrick Roden –

I don’t have access to any special search facility.

I’m just trying to nail facts – one at a time if necessary – to give us a chance of ending the mud-slinging here. This fucking thing is making us all ill – we deserve, at the very least, to know ‘what’ is actually happening, no matter how diabolical the ‘why’ may be.

Colin Alexander

Cameron: you are welcome. Thank you too.

Dog biscuit

Mike Cassidy everyone with the flu infects many people. Flus have a cycle of 40 days or so according to Dr Knut Witkowski . You can google. By locking people up there is a risk of prolonging infection with inevitable results of high mortality.Added to that a busted flush economy, mass unemployment and a more indebted society . Also for a First Minister with no desire for Scottish Independence a lock down and a postal vote are a Godsend.

Patrick Roden

Ian Brotherhood says:

“I don’t have access to any special search facility”

Just type Google Scholar and you can usually access a good amount of papers through your University account (if you still have access to one)

You can go onto WHO’s site, the NHS site and they will also give you quick access to the latest articles on the virus.

Patrick Roden

ian Brotherhood says
“I’m just trying to nail facts – one at a time if necessary – to give us a chance of ending the mud-slinging here. This fucking thing is making us all ill – we deserve, at the very least, to know ‘what’ is actually happening, no matter how diabolical the ‘why’ may be”

Totally agree with you my friend.

I am concerned about the lack of honest information reaching the wider community, but that is down to our crap media failing to challenge the government.

I think the bigger problem is getting the government to give back the rights that they have taken from us.

Dog biscuit

Patrick Roden we are not claiming the virus is harmless .I personally think it has been blown out of proportion and all I know right now is I have no political or civic rights. Hello Patrick Another unfortunate with a daft first name

Effijy

Thanks for the very supportive and constructive comments
About my declaration that Masks help?

I’m not bad nothing anyone here but boy this site has its share of it.

I’ll stand by what I say as common sense.
Sure the mask, dependant on type and how it is fitted my have a limit
On containing or obstructing air born particles but it does help.

I say it’s obvious from experience but our First Minster recommended it
With the backing of her scientific and medical team.

The UK Deputy Medical office said it helps in a small way.

Well I’ll stick with my experience and the experts above.

So there we were worried about all the medics and carers not having masks
And Ottoman Boy and Dog Biscuit knew there never needed it.

Hold that plane load ordered from China until they come out the COBRA meeting.

If you have a mask wear it in public!

Dog biscuit

Iterations ,projections ,conjecture. As the Comet grew closer and began to fill the sky and shine like the Sun then the people realised.It is done. You can argue the ins and outs all you like buy were being taken for mugs.You lot are as nervous as naked virgins at a biker meet.

Dog biscuit

‘If you have a mask wear it in public’ Does that apply to Jihadis as well or should they be exempt to make easier for the police to spot them?

Dr Jim

Covid 19 is worse than the worst Flu by x10, Dr Philipa Whitford

The reasons why? This virus even if or when recovered from can inflict permanent damage to the renal system as well as just the lungs

We live in a sad society where Unionists in Scotland or haters of the SNP are prepared to infect a deadly virus on themselves or others to prove a political point about some imaginary belief that the government in England cares more or represents them more than the government of the country they live in

We live in Scotland, England’s never needed our vote to govern, good bad or otherwise

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

Okay, let’s just set aside the issue of contagiousness and agree that we don’t have a definitive answer. I’m more than happy to accept that it is ‘rather more contagious than your average cold and flu’ (you, at 2.56) for the sake of agreement.

So, we have a bug that travels across society a lot faster than normal bugs. Okay. That at least looks like a ‘fact’, of sorts…

What about lethality then? Again, in comparison to ‘normal’ winter flu bugs?

What facts inform your opinion?

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
What I’ve managed to gather is it is slightly more deadly than seasonal flu, but it does require an extensive level of intensive care. So it is the rate at which it spreads that poses the most serious risk, as it threatens to overload the health system. Such is the effect of four decades of “no alternative” to neo-liberal social engineering.

Effijy

Latest Global Stats for Covid 19 show Bojoland still leading the way when it comes to deaths.

Although with what they claim to be massive stockpiles of kit whizzing around the country due to them working very hard with no spared expense they are only 500 needless deaths away from being
Europe’s top killing government.

Remember the Tory.Ministers condemning how bad things where in the hospitals of Italy and Spain
Well if you take today’s death tallies from-
Spain
Italy
Germany
Switzerland
Austria
Ukraine
Denmark
Hungary
Poland
Norway
Finland

It’s less than the number for Grunt Britain the Superior!

Congratulations Bojo’s Lying Circus!

ian macdiarmid

Herd immunity is important but only controled.We talk about protecting the vulnerable eg the older gneration,those with underlying health issues but little is mentioned re those with issues with weight.Supposedly roughly 60 % of the uk population is overweight or obese they could also be classed as vulnerable.We could find that in real terms a large percentage of the population is vulnerable.

Scott

I note that the tests are 122,000+ I heard Hancock say these included all the 4 countries,no mention of this before so is he just covering his arse as usual.Does this mean that Scotland has reached their total ++++.

Col.Blimp IV

Dog biscuit

Were “Speak your weight machines” ever actually a thing?

I can remember seeing them in cartoons, usually with the speech bubble saying “one at a time please” to an embarrassed fat lady, much too the amusement of passers by.

But I don’t recall ever seeing a real one, not even in Blackpool or in Butlins and Pontins camps the length and breadth of the country.

Dog biscuit

We live in a sad society that is willing to give up itsr rights and freedoms for a dubious sense of security.Again how long ? and dont say ‘as long as it takes’ thats an open ended life sentence. If it affects renal system is it actually a flu virus has anyone seen a picture that isnt an artists impression? We will never be alloed to seperate covid deaths from seasonal flu deaths nice murky water to slosh around in ad infinitum . You do realise most people survive this virus that is most people survive without displaying any symptoms ?. I fear the crisis has been jacked up for political effect.

Dog biscuit

Col Blimp Ive never seen one either lots of chewing gum machines though not any more.

Dog biscuit

There are people on here today who a few years ago would have abhorred the idea of having rights and freedoms removed by Government dictat. What happened?

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB (5.24) –

‘What I’ve managed to gather is it is slightly more deadly than seasonal flu…’

Okay, thanks. Do you have a source?

The site I’m using to fact-check (as far as possible) says the following (which I’ve amended slightly so that a simple C+P engine search won’t reveal the source – the reason for not linking to the source right now is that I don’t want anyone dismissing it out of hand) –

‘According to data from the best-studied countries and regions, the lethality of Covid19 is between 0.1% and 0.37%, which is in the range of a severe influenza…’

mike cassidy
Dog biscuit

Effigy, you left out Sweden. I dont want to patronise you but I feel I must….,,. Nugget.

callmedave

But…but!

I hear Hancock announcing 122,000 tests yesterday in the UK so what happened to yesterday’s news that the target was to be 100,000 in the country of England?

The link below has not been archived because archive says it doesn’t exist anymore. 404

link to theguardian.com

But verbal answer broke it all down but too many lots of bits to it.

Total was 122347 tests

Scotland… 2537
Wales…… 1099
N. Ireland..1219
NHSE……..39753
Mobiles…..39153 (no country specified)
Home Kits…27497 (all England)
Satellites..13872 (mainly England)
Private comp.13000 (mainly England)

So they did meet the target!
————————————————————–
Once again we never get the BBC to give figures for total deaths in England (including out of hospitals) on a screen

We have to do the calculations from UK figures for ourselves.

Just to rub it in no last graph showing hospital UK deaths V All UK deaths shurley schome mistake at the update! It’s disappeared.

We got it before on past days maybe too alarming!
Good old Auntie and WM sleight of hand non-reporting.

Anyhoo!

Scotland……….today…..40………Total……..1515…. (all deaths)
Wales………….today…..17………Total………925……..(all deaths)
N. Ireland……..today…..04………Total………365….(all deaths)
England………..today…*352………Total……*20488 *Hospital deaths only
=========================================================
UK…………….today….739………Total……27510

Work out the puzzle to get the total England figures again. 🙁

The BBC web site and the BBC England web site not showing any figures but full of the news that 122347 tests were done. 🙂

Off to wash the dishes and then try some on-line chess… 🙁
Lost my last two games.

CameronB Brodie

Dog biscuit
You are simply conforming to the right-wing mind’s inability to comprehend complexity, or respect the relational autonomy of others. 😉

High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2

Abstract

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6–7 days and a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.2–2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period.

We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3–3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6–9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8–8.9). We further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.

link to wwwnc.cdc.gov

Dog biscuit

Give it out to Mike Cassidy there, always on the ball with vital info. With Mike as Nicola Sturgeons Chief oh Staff we should be able to run ourselves into a ditch. Such trivial nonsense.

Col.Blimp IV

Apparently, spending countless Billions on Nuclear weapons systems, keeping them well oiled and ready to spring to our rescue for decades, decommissioning same when they become obsolete and replacing them with shiny new ones, Ad infinitum – Is vital for our safety.

Keeping some old Iron Lungs and stuff, in a cupboard somewhere – an unnecessary extravagance.

Hopefully the Scottish NHS will take note of this and refrain from putting all their surplus ventilators on E-bay, once this crisis is over.

Dog biscuit

Cameron,take your patronising nonsense to the can and stop trolling me you gabshite.

Ian Brotherhood

A reminder of the quote I posted earlier:

‘According to data from the best-studied countries and regions, the lethality of Covid19 is between 0.1% and 0.37%, which is in the range of a severe influenza…’

The ‘fact-checking’ site I’m using provides the following links to support that one sentence:

link to cebm.net

link to ebm-netzwerk.de

link to t-online.de

link to medrxiv.org

link to covid.is

link to medrxiv.org

link to news.usc.edu

link to medrxiv.org

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
It’s a very long time since I was involved with any of this stuff, but I don’t think I’m pointing you in the wrong direction.

Why daily death tolls have become unusually important in understanding the coronavirus pandemic

COVID-19’s lethality provides a grim opportunity to track its spread.

COVID-19 is different from the viral epidemics of the recent past in a few ways: it is more widespread than severe acute respiratory syndrome, more infectious than seasonal influenza and has killed more people than Ebola.

And it is different in the way that epidemiologists are tracking its progress. Instead of relying principally on the number of infections, or the ratio of deaths to infections — known as the case fatality rate — researchers are looking at the daily deaths attributed to COVID-19 to monitor the impact of the disease and to guide responses.

In part, that’s due to a lack of testing in many countries — and the virus’s ability to spread in people who don’t show symptoms — both of which make counting the number of infections very difficult. COVID-19 has also been more fatal than many recent epidemics, which makes its death toll relevant to understanding the pandemic more broadly.

As of early April, more than a million coronavirus cases had been reported around the world. There have been more than 80,000 deaths reported so far, with Italy, the United States and Spain reporting the highest numbers. And the pandemic has yet to hit its stride in most low- and middle-income countries, where it could cause much more damage. “This is a virus with a considerable lethal potential,” says Sheila Bird, a biostatistician at the University of Cambridge, UK….

link to nature.com

CameronB Brodie

Dog biscui
Pussy. 😉

Dog biscuit

Remember everyone the Governments of the UK have given themselves two that is 2 years to have their way with us. How do they know theyll need two years?Is that two years to implement the nebulous Green Economy?

Dog biscuit

Cameron ,I only chase parked cars. You spend more time on here than GCHQ. We could have a running skirmish if you like but would it get any of us to the actual facts of covid 19?

Col.Blimp IV

mike cassidy

I passed through several London train stations in the 60’s, couldn’t have been paying attention.

The hairstyle, dress and the bracelet are pretty much identical to my mothers at that time.

I do remember the machines where you could record your voice on a 45rpm flexi-disc. I made one of “A Scottish Soldier” and she countered with “Where Have All the Flowers Gone”, I wonder what became of them.

CameronB Brodie

Dog biscuit
I’m sharing scientific and medical knowledge. You’re sharing right-wing, anti-scientific, prejudice. Slight difference. You just can’t handle the inner truth about yourself. Pussy.

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

Can we agree a form of words for what we’ve established so far?

How about this to start off with, and we can revise it later…

‘Covid 19 is slightly more deadly than seasonal flu and spreads approximately twice as fast.’

Is that a fair reflection of what you’ve stated above?

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
Pretty much, or at least that’s how I understand things. I’m no fan of this lock-down but I do appreciate the evidence-base that suggests it’s currently necessary. 😉

Scot Finlayson

The death rate from coronavirus in England is more than twice as high among people in disadvantaged areas, according to official data published Friday.

There were 55.1 deaths per 100,000 people involving coronavirus in the areas with the worst rankings for income, health, education and crime — compared to 25.3 in the least-deprived areas, according to the Office for National Statistics.

The east London borough of Newham was worst hit, with 144.3 deaths per 100,000 people.

Golfnut

@ Call me Dave.

Looks like the Tory’s judged the figures on tests to include ‘ agreed to send out a test kithttps://www.facebook.com/groups/215556435841901/permalink/639069223490618/ so not actually tests carried out.

Golfnut

Try that again

link to facebook.com

jfngw

Corona virus mortality rates

link to coronavirus.jhu.edu

Seasonal flu is less than 1% mortality rate. Corona virus in the UK is currently stated as 15.6% at this university.

Pete

The big thing here to me, as an OAP, is that I am having months of my remaining time on earth taken away from me by a totalitarian regime in the form of Sturgeons SG.
As a consequence I do not abide by the rules.
I visit my family and socialise with them.
They visit me and socialise with me and my wife.
Can I urge you all to embrace civil disobedience and stick two fingers up to Sturgeon and her acolytes.
Freedom and economic prosperity Trump health fears any day.

mr thms

Good YouGov poll for the SNP!

link to mobile.twitter.com
tatus/1256275217632157699

mr thms

Oops

Hope it works this time..

link to mobile.twitter.com

Patrick Roden

dog biscuit says:

“Hello Patrick Another unfortunate with a daft first name”

Same to you but double it Pat. 🙂

CameronB Brodie

That’s a pretty extreme rejection of a scientific world view there, which suggest Pete isn’t someone who simply leans to the right, if you ken fit ah mean.

Silencing the Scientists: the Rise of Right-wing Populism
link to ourworld.unu.edu

Patrick Roden

Ian Brotherhood says:

“What about lethality then? Again, in comparison to ‘normal’ winter flu bugs?”

I think the lethality is harder to pin down than the contagiousness of the virus, but even if it is equally as lethal as the normal winter flu but two or three times as many people are getting it, you can see that Covid19 is more deadly just because of this simple mathematical equation.

I watched a film linked on Wings that some doctor working in New York was sharing how people were affected by the virus and how the effects on a person’s lungs made this virus far more dangerous than the flu.

A lot of elderly people die every year from the flu, but I don’t think we have ever seen a flu virus having the devastating effect that covid19 is having in our elderly care homes.

Ottomanboi

Some sound sense from a professional.
link to spectator.co.uk
Plainly some people are reading the literature, processing it and challenging the ‘orthodoxy’.
The cracks in this lockdown edifice built on questionable foundations are appearing.

CameronB Brodie

Ottomanboi
That you touting a right-wing agenda again? That’s not particularly pro-social of you, or helpful.

Pandemic Ethics: the Unilateralist Curse and Covid-19, or Why You Should Stay Home

In Scientific American Zeynep Tufekci writes:

” Preparing for the almost inevitable global spread of this virus, … , is one of the most pro-social, altruistic things you can do in response to potential disruptions of this kind.

We should prepare, not because we may feel personally at risk, but so that we can help lessen the risk for everyone.

…you should prepare because your neighbors need you to prepare—especially your elderly neighbors, your neighbors who work at hospitals, your neighbors with chronic illnesses, and your neighbors who may not have the means or the time to prepare because of lack of resources or time.”

link to blog.practicalethics.ox.ac.uk

Dog biscuit

Patrick,Ha!

bipod

The number of fatalities in Scotland are coming down every day (we are well past the peak which occured on the 9th of April in Scotland), and thats with the Scottish government scraping the bottom of the barrel and assuming every care home death in the land must be coronavirus or suspected coronavirus. Its odd that despite this nicolas sturgeons restrictions seem to be getting stricter. She is now insisting that people wear face masks, or scarfs around there faces when they go outside even though it is mostly just a placebo.

It is suspected that there is a link between vitamin D defiency and the severity of the coronavirus, link to nutraingredients.com, in the long term I wonder what the effect of locking everyone away in their homes for spring and summer will have on the health of society. Does it guarantee a worse corona virus outcome and a more severe flu outbreak this winter.

Ian Brotherhood

What is the risk of death from this bug, for people of school and working age in general?

Anyone fancy having a guess?

It’s as likely as ‘…’

Fill in the blank.

Brian Doonthetoon

Hi callmedave at 6:09 pm.

You typed,
“The link below has not been archived because archive says it doesn’t exist anymore. 404

link to theguardian.com

That page was captured by the Internet Archive on 2nd April. There are actually 12 captures on different days in April, from the 2nd to the 17th.

link to web.archive.org

CameronB Brodie

Honestly folks, the right-wing psychology is grounded in distrust and fear of the unknown/other. This means you can’t trust their judgement to be ethically rational.

Moral Intuitions vs. Moral Reasoning. A Philosophical Analysis of the Explanatory Models Intuitionism Relies On

Abstract

The notion of ‘intuition’ is usually contrasted with rational thought, thus motivating a differentiation between two kinds of processes that are supposed to characterize human thinking, i.e. rational and ‘intuitive’ (immediate and non-argumentative) forms of judgment. Recently, the notion of intuition has also played a leading role in cognitive studies on morality with the rise of so-called social intuitionism, according to which people’s moral stances are culturally driven intuitions – i.e. they are quick, involuntary and automatic responses driven by culturally and socially acquired principles (see e.g. [42], [41] and [22]).

Usually, intuitionism is presented as radically opposed to rationalistic views of morality according to which moral judgments are the outcome of explicit reasoning.

In this work we compare two different hypotheses concerning the possible relationship between reasoning and intuition: a ‘continuist interpretation’ (maintaining that intuitions and judgments based on reasoning are produced by the same cognitive process) and a ‘discontinuist interpretation’ (supporting the view that they are produced by two different cognitive processes).

We argue that a continuist interpretation appears more plausible than a discontinuist one and that the concepts of ‘intuition’ and ‘reasoning’ are two facets of the same process which spans from fast, immediate, and certain answer to slow, conscious and elaborate judgments. According to this interpretation, moral judgments are produced by the same kinds of inferences reasoning relies on, i.e. mostly deduction, induction and abduction.

Our analysis will show that to opt for a continuist interpretation has many consequences for the way morality is explained from a psychological point of view. Mainly, it challenges the idea of morality proposed by intuitionism, according to which moral intuitions are rigidly driven by culturally learned principles.

Our reflections lead rather to the conclusion that the first and spontaneous intuitions fully enculturated people may experience do not often express the best moral judgment possible in a certain situation, but are rather the product of the prejudices people inherit from their culture/subculture. This gives rise to the conclusion that people are better guaranteed to form truly moral judgments when they do not respond intuitively to morally relevant situations, but interrupt and override this automatic processing, moving on to a controlled i.e. a rational process.

Keywords
Moral Judgment Moral Reasoning Moral Intuition Moral Cognition Moral Sense

link to link.springer.com

cynicalHighlander

Ian B

Your point being?

Ian Brotherhood

@cynicalHighlander –

‘Even in the global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.’

defo

Impossible to answer Ian.
If you’re a shepherd in Argyle, not so much.
If you’re a London bus driver…

bipod

@Ian Brotherhood

Saw some results from a recent antibody test by standford university which suggested a rate of 0.1% or 0.2%. About the same as the flu.

twathater

@ Mr Thms 7.31pm Thanks for that link , the figures are looking good for the SNP on those graphs , but will they convert to votes when Nicola’s GRA bill comes out again or when the new hate bill is aired widely , I am not a member of twatter but if the comments are to be believed Nicola and the woke brigade are in for a shock

Colin Alexander

Ian Brotherhood said: “Covid 19…spreads approximately twice as fast.’

That’s not my understanding from my brief browsing session earlier.

I think I read influenza actually spreads quicker as flu has a shorter time between becoming infected to becoming infectious but, each coronavirus infected person infects between 2 and 4x more.

cynicalHighlander

The problem is they can carry it without any severe symptons and can then mingle with a more vulnerable group unchecked so spreading it at a faster rate than under lockdown. Since this virus can and does use cell tissue to replicate itself try 1 double it every day for 21 days and see how fast it can spread.

CameronB Brodie

Torydum, Marxism, and British nationalism all share a utilitarian ideological kernel. Utilitarian ethics are generally inadequate to serving the interests of open society, due to an inability to accommodate the interests of minorities (see Scotland’s democratic deficit). These are not normal times.

The Moral Cost of Coronavirus
Posted on March 16, 2020

COVID-19 is now a global pandemic. As cases rise rapidly, one effect will be to raise deep and troubling ethical issues. If the UK follows Italy, as it is predicted to, one such ethical issue will be an extreme demand placed on healthcare resources, specifically intensive care.

Indeed, given differences in ICU beds it may well be that the challenges facing the NHS exceed those seen in Italy. Effective triage is the appropriate response to ensure that in spite of a severe mismatch between supply and demand allocation of resources is fair. In an overwhelmed system with critically unwell patients, doctors must decide which patients get oxygen, intensive care, both, or neither.

Fundamentally, this is a question of ethics and distributive justice. In answering this question Italy has opted for a utilitarian approach: “the principle of maximizing benefits for the largest number”. That allocation must be towards “those patients with the highest chance of therapeutic success”.

Indeed, American ethicists have also suggested that utilitarianism in some form is the best response to rationing in the face of coronavirus. Under the circumstances, utilitarianism seems to be the necessary and proportionate response. Whilst this might be the only ethical option, for doctors on the frontlines this represents a paradigm shift in how they practice and carries costs that must be considered over the longer term….

link to blogs.bmj.com

CameronB Brodie

@Rev.
I may be posting a lot but that was covid related medical ethics from the BMJ.

callmedave

@Brian Doonthetoon

My link and your first link say 100,000 in England.
Your second link has changed to 100,000 in UK

Funny old world….I’m sticking my story then… 🙂

@golfnut

I see since I went to dabble in some chess (won by the way) that the Test Numbers have be questioned over the 10,000 ‘Home tests’
which of course are tests sent out and not yet returned which is a valid point.

But it would be churlish not to admit they probably did make the 100,000 in England.

PS:
Trump speaks trade wars and China Lab leaks virus and the Yankee Dow sinks again. FGS!

The Intelligence service says……. Naw!

Wish the medical men in suits that hover round him take him away
so we can get the economy started. 🙁

robbo

I’D rather have a face covering when i go out and accept some restrictions to control a beastie we don’t know enough about yet.

Rather that that this bunch of fuckwits in photo who should be in jail for terrorism .They’ve no issues way face masks here i see!

link to twitter.com

Ian Brotherhood

‘Even in the global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.’

Explanation:

link to medrxiv.org

callmedave

Hold the front page:

Just read this…a third of the total tests were home kits …
Jings that’s more than 10,000.

There was me saying OK they did it. Hmmm! Maybe not now.
Maybe a near thing but no cigar! 🙂

Never trust a Tory or WM is always a good rule.

————————————————————
BBC Auntie coughs up the story.

The total testing figure includes 27,497 kits which were delivered to people’s homes and also 12,872 tests that were sent out to centres such as hospitals and NHS sites.

However, these may not have been actually used or sent back to a lab.

Colin Alexander

Personal opinion here:

Mibbie a reason Coronavirus apparently infects more is because if you get flu it usually hits you like a bus, so within a day or two of infection people take to their bed and home for a week.

However, Coronavirus can be a slow burner with people getting worse AFTER a week of milder symptoms, or mild or asymptomatic (no obvious symptoms)for a large proportion of those infected so people can carry on normal smitting people till they feel more ill or there is a lockdown.

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

What about the following?

Does it constitute a ‘fact’ we can include or does anyone feel strongly (or better yet, have evidence) that it is inaccurate?

‘Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. About 95% of all persons show mild symptoms at most.’

Colin Alexander

Ian Brotherhood

In Iceland the number who tested positive for SARS-Covid-2 but had no symptoms is around 50% according to reports online.

Sarah

To everyone who is wondering whether covid is the same as flu or not, and how serious it is: I’ve just listened to Wee Ginger Dug’s dugcast with Dr Philippa Whitford and she made it very clear that covid is a totally different illness that affects many different parts of the body. Scary stuff.

Dr Whitford, by the way, as well as doing all her MP work is also back in the NHS helping with planning what to do. What a splendid example she is compared with the devious liars in the Cabinet.

Golfnut

@ Call me Dave.

I think it may worse than that, they included numbers of tests agreed to be sent out. I read that, perhaps wrongly, that these were test kits that hadn’t actually been sent.

Iain More

The Yoon Tories lied about hitting 100,000 tests in a day. Who would have thunk it?

link to hsj.co.uk

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
I looks like you have more in-depth knowledge than myself, but that sounds about right. The nature of the illness makes it difficult for folk to judge if they present a risk to their community. That’s why it’s not appropriate to encourage self-regulation yet.

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

Believe me my friend, I have no more knowledge than you when it comes to any-fuckin-thing with the possible exception of how to do anagrams mentally.

😉

kapelmeister

Nicola Sturgeon recommends covering the face. She should know. Bandits cover their faces when doing a hold up. And she’s holding up independence.

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
And I’m sure you’d leave me for dead in that respect. I find it hard enough to communicate as it is. 😉

Ian Brotherhood

‘Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free (*1). Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% (*2) remain symptom-free. About 95% of all persons show mild symptoms (*3) at most.’

Sources:

(*1) link to bmj.com

(*2) link to niid.go.jp

(*3) link to buzzfeed.com

Brian Doonthetoon

Hi callmedave at 9:04 pm.

You typed,
“My link and your first link say 100,000 in England.
Your second link has changed to 100,000 in UK

Funny old world….I’m sticking my story then…”

The point is that the Internet Archive preserves what was captured at the time (2nd April).

It reports the headline, “Matt Hancock sets target of 100,000 coronavirus tests a day

Health secretary says he is determined to reach six-figure goal by end of April”

and what he said,
“He said the UK would hit 100,000 tests a day, which would include antigen tests that show whether people are currently suffering from Covid-19, as well as antibody tests to see whether people have had the infection and recovered.”

By the next day, 3rd April, the article in The Guardian had been edited.
Its headline now said,
“Matt Hancock sets target of 100,000 coronavirus tests a day

Health secretary ‘determined’ to reach six-figure goal for England by end of April”

The article also has an edited sentence within it.

“He said England would hit 100,000 tests a day, which would include antigen tests that show whether people are currently suffering from Covid-19, as well as antibody tests to see whether people have had the infection and recovered.”

So you see? The story in The Guardian changed within 10 hours. But they didn’t get away with it because the edits were preserved at the Internet Archive.

If that page had been archived at archive.is, the original version would have been overwritten and lost.

Iain More

Who mentioned Sweden?

link to nypost.com

Tinto Chiel

Any lay person is at a disadvantage when confronting competing medical opinions.

Dr Whitford is a wonderfully-gifted surgeon (and wasted in WM, imo) but I’m not sure of her background in virology or epidemiology.

I think that the main question which has to be resolved is the extent to which rate of infection translates to morbidity.

I think that was at the root of Ian Brotherhood’s question at 9.23.

Ultimately, non-specialists in medicine have to decide which “experts” they find most convincing, depending on which “facts” they can glean fom the internet, since they sure as hell won’t get it from the BBC or other MSM outlets.

Does the lockdown justify the likely deaths on the other side of the equation from people unable to access normal medical services for cancer, hypertension, diabetes, and all the other causes, including depression, let alone the effect on the national economy?

A fearful population is one that is easily manipulated, so, all things considered, I have my grave reservations about how we are being directed by the media.

robbo

Iain More says:
1 May, 2020 at 10:01 pm
Who mentioned Sweden?
———–

Who do you think Iain?

It’s was the fraud himself Dog.

Dog biscuit

Who ever thinks covid deaths are at 15% of the population must be living a nightmare right now or he is blowing smoke up our collective arse.

cynicalHighlander

@robbo

Crumbs!

Confused

– worth a read. maybe.

link to asiatimes.com

“Ho Chi Minh is a son of a bitch
Got the blueballs, crabs and the seven-year itch”

– but he disnay huv the virus

link to edition.cnn.com

snarky rumours suggest sweden went herd because it was shit-scared its somali migrants wouldn’t social distance and the police would get its arse kicked trying to make them

Dog biscuit

You have an aversion to the Swedish democratic way of doing things Robbo?

Dog biscuit

Tinyo Chiel, agreed.

Ian Brotherhood

@CamB –

Just to recap – would you agree that we’ve ‘verified’ (as far as is possible for now), the following:

‘Covid 19 is slightly more deadly than seasonal flu and spreads approximately twice as fast.
The risk of death for the general population is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work.
Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. About 95% of all persons show mild symptoms at most.’

Dan

Colin Alexander says: at 9:19 pm

Personal opinion here:

Mibbie a reason Coronavirus apparently infects more is because if you get flu it usually hits you like a bus, so within a day or two of infection people take to their bed and home for a week.

However, Coronavirus can be a slow burner with people getting worse AFTER a week of milder symptoms, or mild or asymptomatic (no obvious symptoms)for a large proportion of those infected so people can carry on normal smitting people till they feel more ill or there is a lockdown.

Aye, that certainly seems a valid point.

@Ian Brotherhood at 10:00 pm

I reckon stats really need to be taken with a pinch of salt at this stage due to the overall lack of testing being carried out.
I’m aware of over a dozen folk in my social circles that have supposedly had it, out of them all, only one who was very close to being put on a ventilator tested positive, but did pull through although has been hit very hard by it physically and is still recuperating a month on.
Another with breathing issues and high fever causing confusion was admitted to a covid ward but both the initial and secondary tests came back negative.
None of the rest of them got officially tested to confirm one way or another.

Well over a month ago I had a sustained tight chest for nearly a week and during that time an occasional weird unnerving feeling of slight shortness of breath in what I imagine someone with asthma might feel before an attack happens, that cleared then 4 days of a distinct but not horrendous non producing dry cough. I didn’t feel the need to burden my local doctors and probably wouldn’t have been tested anyway so who knows if that was it or not.

If so many people can be asymptomatic then basing contagion and lethality rates on limited numbers being tested is not going to be particularly accurate.

I notice Morag has added a comment to an early Rev retweet that some may have missed re. reinfection.

link to twitter.com

CameronB Brodie

Tinto Chiel
“I think that the main question which has to be resolved is the extent to which rate of infection translates to morbidity.”

I’m not sure if that is correct. I’d suggest it is more relevant to determine the likely numbers of both the infected and those likely to need hospitaliaation.

CameronB Brodie

Ian Brotherhood
That sounds about right. So we still have a wee bit longer, and need do a lot more testing, before we can judge when the health system is secure from collapse. Thanks Tories.

Col.Blimp IV

Somebody remarked earlier that the young seem to be getting something of a free pass from this deadly virus.

Strange – but true.

We know that obesity and asthma is prevalent amongst youngsters and that there are plenty chronically ill and immuno-compromised children, which should mean that a large number of them are in the “vulnerable” group.

So why are hardly any of them dying?

Perhaps is that they have something that the older age-groups don’t – What about the MMR vaccination, by the mid 90’s the population was reckoned to have been vaccinated and it is thoughtthe vaccine is effective for around 27 years.

If there is a Nobel Prize heading my way for this breakthrough, I am happy to share it with all on this website – a bit like Malta and their communal G.C.

Tinto Chiel

@CBB: I suppose it depends whether you wish to assess death rates for Covid-19 or the ability of medical services to cope with levels of infection.

Dan

@Col.Blimp IV

Someone on here mentioned the BCG Injection about a week ago.
I got it at school and just searched to see when it started being given and if still administered, and the following recent article in the Lancet came up in results.

link to thelancet.com

CameronB Brodie

Tinto Chiel
The pressure on the health system isn’t only related to covid, the ‘event’ is draining staffing and resources in general. This will have a negative impact on non-covid patients, as well as covid patients. Care is already needing to be rationed, that was what the BMJ ethics were about, that are currently hanging in moderation.

Tinto Chiel

“The pressure on the health system isn’t only related to covid, the ‘event’ is draining staffing and resources in general. This will have a negative impact on non-covid patients, as well as covid patients. Care is already needing to be rationed, that was what the BMJ ethics were about, that are currently hanging in moderation.”

Agreed.

So much of the crisis here and in countries like USA and Italy is caused by enormous strain on under-resourced health services, along with other factors such as air pollution, collosal mismanagement by government (e.g. UK still allowing unregulated inward air travel), no rational testing regime and pitiful protection of the aged in care homes and of dedicated and valuable health workers.

Ian Brotherhood

@Dan (11.04) –

The ‘BCG’ is a brilliant topic for general discussion, whether we’re in a vaccine-related crisis or not.

Dunno what age you are but I’m 56 and ‘The Big Jag’ was a subject of great controversy and excitement back in the day, not least because we all had stories from pals about how dodgy it was and didn’t know how it was all going to pan out. The fear was palpable. Can’t be many folk who don’t have a scar, or don’t remember *precisely* where it was delivered!

🙂

Col.Blimp IV

Dan

Yes, I remember reading that, I also remember the big painful blisters that my classmates had on their arms after getting that jag, I was able to dodge it on the grounds of Christian Fundamentalist intransigence (It’s God’s job to decide which diseases you get).

He must have felt sorry for me because he let me off the hook with TB, after having zapped me with measles, mumps, and rubella. – vaccinations must really piss him off.

Katie

Hmm… Cant help its a ploy to keep us all in socially distancing, muzzled and being constantly drip fed fear factor from bbc n chums! (Not sayin people getting sick all the same and its terrible… but cant help thinking there is something much bigger afoot!!! )

Col.Blimp IV

Katie says:

“Hmm…”

There is some evidence that there is – I’m not too sure one way or the other.

link to tinyurl.com

CameronB Brodie

Katie
The media narrative is aimed at encouraging social cohesion and amnesia, which will be needed if British constitutionalism is to continue as previously. Especially if those responsible get gongs from Betty, which is more than likely. That’s what happened to the head of the Treasury team tasked with subverting the indy cause in 2014.

Katie

I just fear something much bigger afoot! Also smokescreen for impending Brexit! I really do feel so sad for all these poor souls and families that have died! But I dont think this is even nearly the end even if they say we are passing the peak but the start of some dystopian nightmare!! Something definitely not right!! And I dont think a human catching a virus from an animal is causing this!! Not for a single second!

Jockanese Wind Talker

“Hmm… Cant help its a ploy……….constantly drip fed fear factor from bbc n chums!”

You may be right @Katie says at 11:30 pm

Three Quotes for you.

On Fear:

1. “Terrorism is the best political weapon for nothing drives people harder than a fear of sudden death”

Adolf Hitler

Fear of sudden death by Covid-19 is being used to terrorise the public (especially those in or with relatives in care homes)

On drip feeding propaganda to the population (I’m thinking BBC pushing Scots Govt responsibility for Privately owned Care Homes lack of PPE, but basically their ‘Scotland Shite ‘cos EssEnnPeeBaad’ mantra):

2. “It would not be impossible to prove with sufficient repetition and psychological understanding of the people concerned that a square is in fact a circle. They are mere words, and words can be moulded until they clothe ideas and disguise.”

Joseph Goebbels

3. “The most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly – it must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over.”

Joseph Goebbels

Dan

@Ian Brotherhood
I’ve still got the scar on my right shoulder from the jag. I can mind aw the hysteria at school when we were getting it.
They must have used a Gatling gun syringe as it certainly left a pronounced ring shaped scar.
I cannot recall all the other vaccinations jags I’ve had but it is quite a few from various trips abroad. IIRC had the Malaria jag at least a couple of times.
Had shingles twice, fortunately on the thoracic nerve rather than elsewhere which can be more serious.

There is certainly a big element of trust in the administration of vaccines and other medicines, in the past errors have been made with certain treatments and dosages.
When we see big pharma interests along with the propaganda used for population control it is fairly easy to begin to question the lines between good and bad intentions.
The world is in a bad enough state as it is without it turning in to the next series of Utopia!

CameronB Brodie

One way of reducing anxiety is to understand the nature and causes of your anxiety.

Managing mental health during coronavirus – experts around the world share insights

‘Facts minimize fear.’

Above all, the common thread among all these experts was that we need to stay informed by trusted sources. “There are two sources,” explained Aiysha Malik, Technical Officer, Department of Mental Health and Substance Use, World Health Organization. “One is WHO (World Health Organization); the other is your national authority. … A repeated message for managing fear in the COVID-19 response is to get facts. Facts minimize fear.”

The danger is that with headlines blaring around us, news outlets vying to be the first to break news, and our social media feeds locking us in echo chambers, there’s a risk of an infodemic, in which misinformation spreads….

link to weforum.org

Dan

It’s late so will risk posting this list of new wordage for the times.

Coronacoaster
The ups and downs of your mood during the pandemic. You’re loving lockdown one minute but suddenly weepy with anxiety the next. It truly is “an emotional coronacoaster”.

Quarantinis
Experimental cocktails mixed from whatever random ingredients you have left in the house. The boozy equivalent of a store cupboard supper. Southern Comfort and Ribena quarantini with a glacé cherry garnish, anyone? These are sipped at “locktail hour”, ie. wine o’clock during lockdown, which seems to be creeping earlier with each passing week.

Blue Skype thinking
A work brainstorming session which takes place over a videoconferencing app. Such meetings might also be termed a “Zoomposium”. Naturally, they are to be avoided if at all possible.

Le Creuset wrist
It’s the new “avocado hand” – an aching arm after taking one’s best saucepan outside to bang during the weekly ‘Clap For Carers.’ It might be heavy but you’re keen to impress the neighbours with your high-quality kitchenware.

Coronials
As opposed to millennials, this refers to the future generation of babies conceived or born during coronavirus quarantine. They might also become known as “Generation C” or, more spookily, “Children of the Quarn”.

Furlough Merlot
Wine consumed in an attempt to relieve the frustration of not working. Also known as “bored-eaux” or “cabernet tedium”.

Coronadose
An overdose of bad news from consuming too much media during a time of crisis. Can result in a panicdemic.

The elephant in the Zoom
The glaring issue during a videoconferencing call that nobody feels able to mention. E.g. one participant has dramatically put on weight, suddenly sprouted terrible facial hair or has a worryingly messy house visible in the background.

Quentin Quarantino
An attention-seeker using their time in lockdown to make amateur films which they’re convinced are funnier and cleverer than they actually are.

Covidiot or Wuhan-ker
One who ignores public health advice or behaves with reckless disregard for the safety of others can be said to display “covidiocy” or be “covidiotic”. Also called a “lockclown” or even a “Wuhan-ker”.

Goutbreak
The sudden fear that you’ve consumed so much wine, cheese, home-made cake and Easter chocolate in lockdown that your ankles are swelling up like a medieval king’s.

Antisocial distancing
Using health precautions as an excuse for snubbing neighbours and generally ignoring people you find irritating.

Coughin’ dodger
Someone so alarmed by an innocuous splutter or throat-clear that they back away in terror.

Mask-ara
Extra make-up applied to “make one’s eyes pop” before venturing out in public wearing a face mask.

Covid-10
The 10lbs in weight that we’re all gaining from comfort-eating and comfort-drinking. Also known as “fattening the curve”.

CameronB Brodie

Dan
Superb. 🙂

Dog biscuit

Wow whoever advocates Vietnams approach to virus has given up on democracy. Effigy ,Ian More you can now add Sweden to your league results.At this stage I can say only ….enjoy. When it comes to studying death league results I suppose I should up my game but its such a grim business. I prefer to view the big picture if I can because somewhere down the road all of this will need paying for and with a bust economy which of us can afford to hedge for that?

Dog biscuit

Any way tonight it is Polish Tango and whiskey in the bunker.Good night to you all and may your God go with you.

Jockanese Wind Talker

Laughter is the best medicine @Dan says and that was a great wee dose of medication you gave us at 12:22 am

🙂

call me dave

Unionist journalists learn the hard way that wishful thinking doesn’t get the job done, as sensational YouGov poll shows the SNP on course for an overall majority in the Scottish Parliament

link to scotgoespop.blogspot.com

TJenny

Dan – Superb sir. HT.

As someone who had whooping cough at 3 months old, followed by pneumonia x 2, mumps, tonsils + adenoids out, measles, scarlet fever + chicken pox, all by age of 10, and whose BCG test jag didn’t react so got an x-ray instead of BCG, should I be worried? Got the 2 flu + pneumonia jabs in Oct though, so…who knows.(I know they wont protect against Covid but better not getting either of them anyway). 🙂

Tinto Chiel

@Dan 12.22: they say it’s good to wake up with a smile to get it over with, but those new definitions were very funny.

BTW since you like growing things, Mrs Chiel is growing sweet peas in a bucket in the kitchen. Is this normal?

Dan

I can’t take credit for the list, it was a copy and paste job, though Le Creuset wrist was something I had coincidentally thought up before I had seen the list.

Tinto, soz can’t be more helpful on pea growing indoors but my knowledge on things horticultural is a work in progress.
Some plants need sun, some seem to need soil warmth so a bit of searching will likely turn up info from more informed sources.
I got two blueberry bushes recently as payment for sorting a rotavator, and they like acidic soil so to help that I mulch them with pine needles and tea leaves which is supposed to help with acidity. I’ll just have to wait and see if it works.
IIRC you mentioned over in OT you like a tattie, so might be interested to hear I’m trying to increase the yield and size of my favourite Edzell Blues using various methods with planting in ground and in containers, with supplemental dung and seaweed mixes.

Tinto Chiel

Thanks for that Dan.

Good luck with youe EBs. We’ve got lots of clay here. SWMBO is currently depositing our coffee grounds in the borders.

Dan

Dumping coffee grounds in the borders… Is that really an essential journey! 🙂

Duncan Macniven

Ian Brotherhood asks how contagious is the covid virus. Research patient zero Seattle, it will give you an idea on the speed this killer mutates and spreads. It has the potential to turn us into the new dinosaurs.

“The man who would become Patient Zero for the new coronavirus outbreak in the U.S. appeared to do everything right. He arrived Jan. 19 at an urgent-care clinic in a suburb north of Seattle with a slightly elevated temperature and a cough he’d developed soon after returning four days earlier from a visit with family in Wuhan, China.”

Bloomberg.

Tinto Chiel

Yes, thought she was taking things a bit far.

More power to your triffids. It’s hardly rained here in over three weeks and SWMBO’s forever watering the potted plants. I get quite exhausted just watching her…..

Joe

Cameron B Brodie. The walking, talking epitome of why not every education (indoctrination) should be subsidised.

Millennium

Nicola Sturgeon is our very own Grand Old Duke of York.

She marched us up to the top of the Hill (Calton Hill) and then marched us all the way back down again.

youtu.be/gdz8CpysuLQ

Millennium

Nicola Sturgeon is our very own Grand Old Duke of York.

She marched us up to the top of the Hill (Calton Hill) and then marched us all the way back down again.

://youtu.be/gdz8CpysuLQ

Millennium

Nicola Sturgeon is our very own Grand Old Duke of York.

She marched us up to the top of the Hill (Calton Hill) and then marched us all the way back down again.

//youtu.be/gdz8CpysuLQ

Millennium

Wrong thread


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