The Plague Houses
For some time, most polls for “Who’d make the best UK Prime Minister?” – the stat that really decides who wins general elections – have shown a solid lead for “Don’t know”, narrowly ahead of Theresa May and a long way ahead of Jeremy Corbyn.
It’s a prime symptom of a UK-wide contempt for politicians the magnitude of which we’ve never seen in our lifetime, and Scottish voters are in no way immune.
We loaded this question from our latest Panelbase poll in the party leaders’ favours, because you don’t have to think any of them is doing a GOOD job to say that one of them is doing the BEST job out of the four. Everything is relative – and we also didn’t ask the question specifically about Brexit.
But even with those get-outs, “They’re all useless” came out on top by a clear seven points over Nicola Sturgeon, and the rest weren’t even at the races.
SNP and Tory voters were most loyal to their own leaders, with just 25% of Lib Dem supporters backing Vince Cable and a truly dismal 21% of Scottish Labour voters picking Jeremy Corbyn – just 2% higher than the number of Labour voters who picked Nicola Sturgeon, and less than half the number who said “None of them”.
And SNP voters were the only ones who (and by an overwhelming margin of 69-21) backed their leader over nobody – while 45% of Tories did pick Theresa May, that was still less than the 49% who said everyone was terrible.
The FM also came out well on top among Remain voters, 41% of whom rated her the highest compared to 32% going for the “none” option, with none of the other three leaders even making double figures.
But over on the Leave side, Theresa May trailed to “nobody” by more than 20 points, gathering barely over a quarter of the vote, with a rather surprising 14% also plumping for Nicola Sturgeon.
Jeremy Corbyn scored just 8% and 5% with the two groups, suggesting that perhaps his “constructive ambiguity” policy isn’t proving the unifying vote-winner he hoped for, and Vince Cable’s performance among both Lib Dem and Remain voters is pretty shocking given that the Lib Dems have the most unequivocally pro-EU, pro-second-referendum (not YOU, Scotland) stance of all the parties.
The other big gap was on age, with the SNP leader being very noticeably more popular with young voters than middle-aged or older ones. In the 16-34 age group she led Theresa May by almost 4:1, but among over-55s it was almost a dead heat, and “none of the above” won the middle and older age groups by a mile.
Jeremy Corbyn’s appalling approval rating with Scotland’s young people, meanwhile, was particularly notable.
While Nicola Sturgeon will be justly pleased at being by a long distance the best of an absolutely awful bunch, more than 30% of her own voters (and nearly 60% of Remain voters) still weren’t impressed.
At a point in history where politics is playing a bigger part in people’s lives than at any time in living memory, the public’s loathing of, and lack of trust in, its elected representatives is at unprecedentedly stratospheric levels. And that should be a sobering thought for all of us.
In order to judge Nicola Sturgeon properly, you have to have two things.—–the ability to hear and see her.
The machinations of the media make this next to impossible.
I therefore submit given those circumstances she is doing rather well.
Call it conspiracy theory if you like, but i have long felt that there’s a concerted effort to scunner low income, low engagement, poorly informed voters into an apathy which manifests itself in voter turn out stats.
The Tory party is very good at getting their vote out, where it matters.
“constructive ambiguity” An oxymoron surely!
It’s interesting that you’ve introduced a confounding variable in the response options, meaning that your results are confused. You asked for who participants think is doing the *best* job, yet the ‘none of the above’ option is about them not doing a *good* job. In effect, you can’t now meaningfully report on the results of question at all because you could have confused your participants.
Considering the UK probably only gets a few minutes a week to judge Scotland’s FM those numbers are almost God Like
More importantly who were the insane 3% of SNP voters who voted for Theresa May, or were they SNP voters? I don’t think so, which kinda makes it look like polls are no indication of indication of anything except there are folk who’ll put crosses in a box but can’t read or understand what they were asked
Given the media ignore it when Nicola attends a factory, makes a speech at a climate change conference, visits other countries etc etc. In fact they make a point of not even mentioning key events she attends.
Their other trick when they have no choice but to report is to tell us what she said instead of letting us hear it.
However when it comes to the print media the blatant lies and false reports are amazing.
She is far ahead of the rest regarding ability.
I’ll stick to the poll that matters – elections
I’m most shocked by the 3% of SNP supporters thinking the Maybot is doing the best job. WTAF? Must be serious medical issues involved. I wish them a speedy, speedy recovery
The Tories would walk a general election right now.
Blackford telling WM unionist parties some home truths there.
Not missing the labour party either on their plan to ‘not’ put forward an amendment which includes a PV today.
Too risky they say.
Empty Tory benches on the other side (as usual)
It’s yer actual common sense innit, and the poll supports that.
.
Stu.,
I really look forward to reading your articles.
Your depth, style, clarity and honesty shine through.
But good grief, this article is depressing. An indictment of Westminster politicians and the worry that England gets to inflict May or Corbyn on Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland for the forseeable future.
Eeeeuuuch
Indyref2 please 🙂
Numbers good for Nicola considering she gets almost no decent press. However not as good as they should be within SNP voters- has the perceived pull back from indyref 2 played a role? It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
@Dave M
It’s a very clear question. I see a lot of people, Indy, non-Indy, Brexit, Remainers, who think ALL politicians are rubbish. It’s a sign of the times – and that’s even though many people are totally polarised. They wouldn’t have the slightest problem in saying “None of them is doing a good job”, and in fact would be looking for it as an answer.
Me? I’m with the 31%, but it’s not blind faith, looking back at what Sturgeon has done, at any time, I wouldn’t have done anything differently, even with the benefit of hindsight.
If there is a cartoony tomorrow I reckon it might have to be scribbled out late on today.
But surely it’s got to have May in it her who said Sturgeon was not smart enough to understand the finer points of the Brexit deal/no deal.
Martin
I suspect that has lot to do with it but once a campaign begins folk will hopefully swing back.
If a campaign actually starts that is!!!
Solid piece of work there, Stu. Good job!
The point you make at the end about trust however, is perhaps of far greater significance, as the currency of voter respect has fallen considerably in value since the banking crash in 2008, but which, with Brexit, has accelerated considerably re the Unionist Parties.
But is it any wonder when honesty and decency have all but disappeared from the CV’s of so many MP’s, and MSP’s, particularly among the ranks of the Red & Blue Tories. The Gravy Train has never been so lucrative, at the same time as chronic poverty has established itself so extensively under the Tory flagship policy of the euphemistically named Austerity.
“At a point in history where politics is playing a bigger part in people’s lives than at any time in living memory, the public’s loathing of, and lack of trust in, its elected representatives is at unprecedentedly stratospheric levels. And that should be a sobering thought for all of us.”
And we still have a Prime Minister and Leader of the Opposition who will not grant a 2nd Referendum on the basis of the fact that would bring the House of Commons and British democracy (surely a contender for ‘Oxymoron of this, or any year’) into disrepute.
You couldn’t make it up.
PS As to the poll, reliable sources tell me that Plaid Cymru Membership has increased by over 3 000 since the election of Adam Price as Leader. That’s not far south of 50%. Considering the amount of publicity given to Plaid and Wales generally in MSM, that’s not bad going.
Nicola and Adam together – What a team that would be!
Nicola would be out of sight in the popularity polls if we had in any way an honest,moral,unbiased,fearless,uncorrupted,competent,enlightened,knowledgable,cultured media,
instead our media is the most amoral corrupt bunch of charlatans and lickspittles gathered together under the banner of British Nationalism.
“None of them… doing a good job” if that question had not been in where would they have reallocated their vote to? I doubt they would have all gone to the “don’t knows”.
Redo this vox pop following the SNP Beano this week end.
When the BBC cuts to Andrew Neil’s cheese grater chops rather than let the viewers hear Ian Blackford’s response to May there is no doubt that this is reflected in the None of The Above score.
On a day when protest Marchers can be shot in the back by British Army issued bullets and this is deemed not to be ‘Beyond Reasonable Doubt’ Direct Evidence of criminality, but merely ‘on the balance of probabilities and therefore inadmissible as Evidence in any murder trial, I’m afraid ANY Opinion poll can be dismissed as irrelevant.
I suspect that Nicola Sturgeon’s profile is about to go viral over the coming days.
Apart from when they are first elected, the Honeymoon period when all things are possible, are any leaders ever that popular?
Another dispiriting day in Westminster as Labour put half their heart along with their wibbly spines into an article 50 extension but no people’s vote. It won’t win they say.
Well mebbe’s aye mebbe’s naw but for sure they like a good game of politicking to show those SNPs and TIGs who is who.
It should not be overlooked that even in this week of crushing defeat for Theresa May, she continues successfully to run down the clock, almost as if nothing else mattered. And in fact, IMO, her body language does not yet correspond to events. By now, she ought to feel crushed under the weight of rejection from all directions. Yet she soldiers on as if she had no other thought in her mind apart from keeping the Tory Party in power until 11pm on March 29.
The nagging suspicion remains that Theresa May has an ulterior motive which can only be implemented after leaving the jurisdiction of the EU. My bet is that the survival of the British Establishment is under threat, and that her priority is to protect it and keep it intact in the Union, with all its power and wealth, at whatever cost to anyone else. We shall see in a few hours beyond a fortnight.
Mogabee says:
14 March, 2019 at 3:26 pm
Too right! Fingers crossed.
Nicola Sturgeon at 69% amongst SNP voters is actually very very high, considering some want to leave the EU, and some are very worried about the Indy Ref strategy, as we see here on Wings – and elsewhere.
‘Mundell allowed to rebel with reassurance he would keep his Cabinet job’.
Mike SAettle here, lying in the Herald Britland to get his pal Mundell off the hook.
Any poll you conduct, Stu, will be tainted while we have propaganda and lies like this being fed to the unsuspecting public.
‘Way down Settle’s ‘Mundell is Magnificent’ Free Pamphlet, he sneaks in this piece of nonsense that there was a Blue Tory 3 line whip to back the PM, and that Settle’s ‘I understand# that Mundell got a free pass to ‘rebel’ was a fiction made up by the Dead Tree Hack.
Crispin Blunt, whose name sounds like a new brand of Walkers Crisps, received a 3 line whip text, and called for the Cabinet Ministers to resign or be sacked.
What was Settle’s Headline again?
“Mundell allowed to rebel with assurance he would keep his Cabinet Job”.
(1) He wasn’t ‘allowed to rebel’.
(2) No rebel ‘rebelled’ by ‘abstaining’.
(3) What evidence has Settle that Mundell was assured of keeping his Tea Making Job in the Cabinet?
Mundell is a political whore who is clinging on to his indecent wage by any means possible.
@SilverDarling
Yes, it’s quite interesting that the more the SNP push for a second EU Ref, the more Labour resist 😎
Bob Mack@2.31
Good post, my thoughts exactly.
Most people who follow politics on a regular basis, normally give Nicola a good rating regarding her ability.( loads of “politically aware” friends down in the Southern Shires who say they wish she was down there).
Its the members of the public who only listen to the likes of Rep/GM Shortbread and “I’m John Mackay” at tea time, who would never listen/watch political programs, ” because they have been brainwashed into its toooo boring” here’s some dancing sh*te, cooking sh*te and mind numbingly soap opera sh*te, to keep you sedated.
You know the ones.
On YouTube: Guy Verhofstadt in the Eu.Parliament addresses the current status of Brexit.
It is clear that Ukip are held to be toxic to the European Union.
Plain speaking for sure.
Mhairi Black eh! Cutting through the bulls*t there in WM.
Short and sweet! 🙂
Just reading this in the Scotsman
“UN committee demand for repeal of so called “rape clause” backed by SNP
Is the UN demand backed by the SNP or is the rape clause backed by the SNP?
One day the Scotsman will employ a journalist with O grade English
Perhaps this is a deliberate use of bad english
“But over on the Leave side, Theresa May trailed to “nobody” by more than 20 points, gathering barely over a quarter of the vote, with a rather surprising 14% also plumping for Nicola Sturgeon.”
That’s your Yes Leavers, right there
@yesindyref2
Yep, I think as well the Labour Front Bench don’t want the TIGs to be seen to have achieved anything by leaving Labour so will adopt an equivalent Bain principle towards them. They really are a churlish bunch of losers. There are some Labour MPs supporting it though.
With so little time left, the HoC really need indicators of support for the various options denied them by May. It might well lose but it is in front of them now. If Labour runs down the clock as well we will never know what might have gotten through.
I’m quite enjoying Anna Soubry’s contributions lately. I know she is Satan for what she has supported the Tories on over the years but on this, she is doing well.
@call me dave
Mhairi Black was superb, telling them all their posturing will mean nothing as fascist elements in Italy can be rallied by Farage to pressure their government to vote against an extension even if the HoC manage to vote for it.
Crispin Blunt is something nice to smoke Jack 😉
Related to the Queens favourite Soviet spy?
Cheers, Stu. This site goes from strength to strength.
The paradox at the heart of Scottish political life. An SNP leader, hammered daily from all sides, or victim of a news black out when deemed necessary, beating the rest regardless.
Not a high bar to clear, admittedly, but a sign many Scots have enough sense to see through all the keech.
Well done FM, soixante neuf, the number that will forever be a reminder of…. the 2011 election.
Following complaints BBC QT tonight has Ian Blackford billed as one of the panelists
Voting on amendment H just now. Looks like Labour sitting on their arses abstaining as usual.
@SilverDarling
Excellent.
We have a lot of decent people darn Sarf working their tartan socks off for us!
As someone occasionally says on here…Sooouperb!
Labour MPs abstaining I hope their constituents are reminded of this
Reality is complex. Multi-dimensional causation has to be in to account, as does the interaction between media and public perception. In a nutshell, partisan reporting of the news has encouraged partisan perceptions of reality. This is a serious problem, as it plays in to the hands of demigods and totalitarian states. Here’s some Critical Media Studies and stuff.
http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199793471.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199793471-e-44/version/0
The Information Politics of Journalism in a Post-Truth Age
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1461670X.2018.1494513?af=R
Consequences of Politicians’ Perceptions of the News Media
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080
Journalism, Media, and Technology Trends and Predictions 2018
http://www.digitalnewsreport.org/publications/2018/journalism-media-technology-trends-predictions-2018/
Jeezo. Look at those Labour benches. Full of utterly pathetic clowns, who refuse to vote for a policy which they said they wanted – a second referendum on brexit.
`utterly, utterly useless. The Labour party.
This is the root cause of the whole mess. ~The only reason such a wholly incompetent Prime Minister is still in her job, is because their is simply NO credible opposition government. That is what is wrong.
That image, however, of the Labour benches full when all others are voting on a second referendum, tells us everything about the utterly woeful state of labour.
And here’s some media related social psychology and stuff.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6042216/
Polarized Political Communication, Oppositional Media Hostility, and Selective Exposure
https://www.jstor.org/stable/10.1017/s002238161100123x?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
Incidental Exposure, Selective Exposure, and Political Information Sharing: Integrating Online Exposure Patterns and Expression on Social Media
https://academic.oup.com/jcmc/article/22/6/363/4675094
Teaching News Literacy in Politically Polarized Times
https://www.facultyfocus.com/articles/effective-classroom-management/teaching-news-literacy-in-politically-polarized-times/
yesindyref2 says:
14 March, 2019 at 4:02 pm
Nicola Sturgeon at 69% amongst SNP voters is actually very very high, considering some want to leave the EU, and some are very worried about the Indy Ref strategy, as we see here on Wings – and elsewhere
…….
Or, it just shows that perhaps those levels of ‘concern’ are actually, largely imagined ?
A carefully crafted ‘perception’ of a strategy which does not appear to stand up to scrutiny, perhaps.
No cringe in Mhairi Black. That’s the way some young people think now and that’s the way all young people in Scotland will think in a future Independent Scotland.
Another excellent speech today in Hof Commons from the SNPs star.
@geeo
No, and to say or imply that people having doubts and expressing contrary opinions have a “concern” as in “concern trolls” is divisive and suppressive of open debate.
Over 1.6 million people voted YES. We’re all different, very different.
The only other person being given this BBC silent treatment, that I can remember, was Gerry Adams. If they reported on him at all, some studio person spoke his words. While we could watch his lips move, we weren’t allowed to hear him.
Is that what / who the BBC compare Nicola Sturgeon to ?
Sorry I am a technophobe is it possible to post a link to Ms Blacks contribution?
You wonder what Sturgeons rating would be if there was not a Britnat media pumping out propaganda on a daily basis.
@IZZIE
Link to the live stream here.
Look to the right hand list of previous speakers and scroll down as far as you need. You click the speaker you have chosen and the stream will play it for you.
Ms Black 16:35hrs or there aboot!
Click on back to live and your seeing it near live again.
https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/bcabdf69-fc99-4c05-8159-684edaf18c9c
defo @ 14:33,
I’m not one for conspiracy theories in general, but I think you’re correct there. Not that it has to be explictly coordinated – disengagement is the last weapon the BritNats have left, and they all know it. This is why they make such a dismal show in Holyrood. (Which conveniently also comes easy for them.)
And as these results show, they don’t always have to try too hard. Too many people find it all too easy to retreat into blanket dismissal of politicians, but after all they get whom they elect. (Or don’t bother themselves to go out to elect someone better. One suspects the biggest moaners actually come from this cohort.)
Mind you, a little inspiration does go a long way. And there’s nothing like a full-on campaign to bring it out.
Thanks Robert, for pointing me in the direction of Dissociative Disorders and Political Emotion Causation.
Dissociative Disorders
http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199828340/obo-9780199828340-0164.xml
Dissociative Experience and Cultural Neuroscience: Narrative, Metaphor and Mechanism
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5156567/
Toward a Theory of Political Emotion Causation
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/2158244016662106
Dissociation, unconscious and social theory
towards an embodied relational sociology
e.bangor.ac.uk/6009/1/Final%20Thesis%20Shahram%20Rafieian%20koupaei.pdf
The partisan nature of Scotland’s media environment undermines the potential for reflexive reasoning and, subsequently, Scotland’s potential for rational self-determination. Here’s some Social Theory and stuff.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/abs/10.1177/1368431015591426
Dissociation, reflexivity and habitus
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1368431016646516
THE SOCIOLOGICAL CHALLENGE OF REFLEXIVITY
IN BOURDIEUSIAN THOUGHT
http://openaccess.city.ac.uk/17697/1/35ee.%20CRO%20%28Accepted%20Version%29%20Simon%20Susen%20%282016%29%20%E2%80%98The%20Sociol%20Challenge%20of%20Reflexivity%20in%20B%20Th%E2%80%99.pdf
Shifting paradigms : the embodied intersubjective
matrix
https://pdfs.semanticscholar.org/0277/ba00189504ad76eaef7dd4ae089bf48a0e94.pdf
Martin says:
“Numbers good for Nicola [….] However not as good as they should be within SNP voters- …”
Rather like the desperation over Brexit there are people who have given up caring as long as the earache stops.
There is an element in SNP support which is impatient and wants Nicola to ‘just get on with it’. I think they are reckless. Much as I sympathise with the feeling of impatience I really do think softly softly is the only way to catch(ee) this independence monkey.
We really do need to get this right. The figures suggest that even a lot of non-SNP supporters rate Nicola top of the pile in the current field. And I think the SNP is getting some admiring glances now in England because of the performance of Blackford and Cherry et al in Westminster, and a sense that there is some certainty, determination and consistency in the SNP position (not just on Brexit)
All I’ve got to say on that one is the number of totally, and obviously, poorly educated people you meet on doorsteps who say, “Ah jist hate yon Nicolasturgeon”, and when you gently ask them, “Oh! Why would that be then”? and the only answer you get is, “Jist Because”.
Now here’s the point – if you press them with , “Jist because o’ what wid yon be, then?” Their answer is almost certainly going to be, “Jist because”.
They hate the FM but haven’t the first clue as to why they hate her. It doesn’t take an Einstein to figure it out – now does it?
Amazing that Nicola Sturgeon is doing so well whilst, as some have pointed out on here, she gets little airtime and is discredited constantly by the Unionist supporting media. It’s also worth mentioning that she’s at a real disadvantage taking it that Scotland is not an Independent country and Westminster still has around 85% control over powers. In other words, imo, Nicola Sturgeon’s capacity to show her true leadership qualities is stymied at every turn.
Robert J,
I think the rot really set in with New Labour.
Red/Yellow/Blue Tory. Why bother engaging. Almost understandable really.
The US has taken this to a new level, with republican states making it very difficult for poorer (more likely democrat) peeps to even register, and then get to the out of the way booths.
Time for a bit of Cultural Neuroscience that is sensitive to the biopsychosocial model of health?
Neuroscience in the Public Sphere
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article
Neuroscience and Politics: Do Not Hold Your Breath
https://www.e-ir.info/2015/05/08/neuroscience-and-politics-do-not-hold-your-breath/
Overview of Political Behavior: Political Behavior and Citizen Politics
http://www.oxfordhandbooks.com/view/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780199604456.001.0001/oxfordhb-9780199604456-e-017
The Feeling of Rationality: The Meaning of Neuroscientific Advances for Political Science
https://www.cep.ucsb.edu/McDermott/papers/rationality2004.pdf
What on earth would Scotland be like without Nicola & Co and the SNP. It just does not bear thinking about. Imagine if Scotland was still run by Westminster unionists. The state Scotland would be in. It’s bad enough with the Westminster total incompetents. Their appalling behaviour. Beyond belief. Killing their own citizens and people worldwide.
What would Scotland be like without the SNP Gov standing up for Scotland. Funded by their members. It would be unimaginable. Everyone would have to migrate. There would be no one left Scotland. Everyone would be living in top of each other in London S/E. They are now, it is so congested. Traffic chaos all the time. If takes hours to get anywhere.
What on earth is the world becoming because of these appalling people in Westminster. Most of them have never done a job in their lives and are totally out of touch. Those who can do. Those who can’t join unionist/other parties. They are all full of themselves. They think they are great. Full of their own importance. They are the most ignorant, arrogant people ever put on the face of the earth. They should all have to retire at the retirement age they set for others. They should not get to stand for election after that time. Or a small extension. Many have been ensconced there for years milking the public purse. Then they fill their boots in the HoL. What a farce. The rules are antiquated.
A round of applause for Nicola Sturgeon, by far the best politician in the U.K.
A round of applause for Nicola Sturgeon, by far most decent human being who is a political leader in the UK.
Joanna Cherry getting Johnstone telt. He did not know where to look. Hanged his head in shame. Priceless. Classic. Mhairi Black Too many to list. Imagine if they were not there and the unionist were getting away with it. May can’t even face Ian Blackford. She runs away. Total disrespect. The intransigence and stubbornness to get her own way, has caused this mess. Another Thatcher. Or worse if that is possible. She went away greeting after her party had to get rid of her. Over the EU matters as well. The Poll tax. Thatcher was warned not to bring it in. It would cause hardship. She just would not listen but went ahead. There were riots in the streets.
Johnstone has had a make over thinking he could be PM. Or his new girlfriend, That would be a disaster. He has so many skeletons in his cupboard. He would not last three weeks.
Ian Blackford in on Question time.